GBP / USD: Results of the day on January 11th. Britain's GDP rose, industrial production fell

4 hour timeframe

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The amplitude of the last 5 days (high-low): 211p - 72p - 93p - 94p - 73p.

Average amplitude for the last 5 days: 109p (132p).

On the last trading day of the week, the British pound sterling rushed higher because of the news on GDP for November, which exceeded the forecast by 0.1% and amounted to 0.2% in monthly terms. However, traders in unison on purchases of the British pound dried up very quickly, since the indicator of industrial production for the same period collapsed in annual terms by 1.5% and in monthly terms by 0.4%, while forecasts predicted higher values. However, from our point of view, a significant event occurred for the pound, particularly the breakdown of the strong resistance area of 1.2800. This means that from a technical point of view, there is now nothing to stop the pound sterling from continuing to grow. If it were not for the outstanding issue with Brexit, the probability of the pair climbing would be high. In our case, everything, as before, will depend on the decision taken by the Parliament on January 15. Certain signals that a "soft" Brexit is still possible to appear from time to time but we recommend not trying to guess what the outcome of this procedure will be. It is better to wait for the final decision and accurately understand and realize that the UK will be waiting in the coming months and years. So far, all the hints, half hints and rumors from the European Commission or the British Parliament have no weight under them. We remind you how many rumors about positive progress in the negotiations were throughout the previous year. Every time a pound on these rumors becomes expensive, but in the end, everything could end without any deal for both parties.

Trading recommendations:

The GBP / USD currency pair has resumed its upward movement, but this growth can be extremely short. Therefore, we do not recommend opening new long positions at the end of the trading week, especially since it is nearing January 15th.

There are no grounds for opening orders for sale now either. Hence, we recommend waiting for the start of the new week, perhaps over the weekend new information from Britain will appear.

In addition to the technical picture, you should also consider the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanation of the illustration:

Ichimoku indicator:

Tenkan-sen - the red line.

Kijun-sen - the blue line.

Senkou Span A - light brown dotted line.

Senkou Span B - light purple dotted line.

Chikou Span - green line.

Bollinger Bands indicator:

3 yellow lines.

MACD Indicator:

Red line and histogram with white bars in the indicator window.

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EUR / USD: Results of the day on January 11th. Technique still supports the euro, but this is the only growth factor.

4 hour timeframe

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The amplitude of the last 5 days (high-low): 73p - 87p - 63p - 121p - 85p.

Average amplitude for the last 5 days: 86p (89p).

On Friday, January 11, the EUR/USD currency pair was trading in an absolutely calm way all day. The total range of movements on the last trading day of the week does not exceed 20 points, hence, we can say that the pair is just standing still. No important macroeconomic report has been published in Europe today. The only report expected from the US fully corresponded to the predicted value of inflation slowed down to 1.9% y/y in December. Since America did not present any surprises today, traders had nothing to react to. No new messages from the White House or personally from Donald Trump, who likes to "inform" the markets through social networks. The strengthening of the euro in recent days was more powerful than before and can even be called somewhat random. The fact that the Fed is ready to complete the program of tightening monetary policy, only at first glance is negative. In general, the Fed has significantly increased the rate in recent years, therefore, a small pause does not interfere unequivocally. Plus, the European Union and the ECB do not even think about tightening monetary policy. Therefore, as we have repeatedly said, the growth potential of the euro now looks quite limited. The euro will also not be able to go very far. On the one hand, the growth of the euro is more associated with the fall of the dollar, as well as negative news from the States. Thus, it is quite difficult to say that this Euro currency is being strengthened. One negative from the States, and a rather dubious negative, the euro will also not be able to go very far.

Trading recommendations:

The EUR/USD pair continues to be adjusted, thus, it is recommended to open new longs after the MACD indicator turns upward when the price is above the critical line. The goal is the resistance level of 1.1588.

Short positions can be opened in small lots no earlier than fixing the price below the Kijun-Sen line with a target at the level of 1.1431. This will be the first step of the instrument on the way to a trend change to a downward one.

In addition to the technical picture, you should also consider the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanation of the illustration:

Ichimoku indicator:

Tenkan-sen - the red line.

Kijun-sen - the blue line.

Senkou Span A - light brown dotted line.

Senkou Span B - light purple dotted line.

Chikou Span - green line.

Bollinger Bands indicator:

3 yellow lines.

MACD Indicator:

Red line and histogram with white bars in the indicator window.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Bitcoin analysis for January 11, 2019

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Trading recommendations:

According to the 30M time - frame, I found strong selling pressure in the background, which is a sign that sellers are in control. Anyway, usually after the stong impulsive movement we may expect the correction. I have found that BTC is created possible bearish flag pattern, which is a sign for potential downward continuation. My advice is to watch for selling opportunities after a breakout of the flag. A downward target is set at the price of $3.333.

Support/Resistance

$3.641 – Intraday resistance

$3.478– Intraday support

$3.333 – Objective target 1

With InstaForex you can earn on cryptocurrency's movements right now. Just open a deal in your MetaTrader4.

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Dollar loses credibility

The USD index correction started in mid-December continues to gain momentum. Investors closed long positions on the US dollar due to the increased likelihood of a slowdown in the US economy, a pause in the process of normalizing the Fed's monetary policy and increasing political risks. The disconnection of the government turned out to be the longest in the entire history. According to experts of the Financial Times, it will deduct 0.1 pp from GDP every two weeks. Donald Trump does not give up and is going to declare a state of emergency in the country, which does not contribute to the growth of interest in assets issued in the United States.

According to the consensus forecast of the Wall Street Journal economists, the US economy in 2019 will slow down from 3% to 2.2% and chances of a recession have risen to 25%, which was the highest level since 2011. Experts do not count more than one increase in the federal funds rate in the current year, which is generally consistent with FOMC estimates. The derivative market estimates the probability of a single act of monetary restriction at 17% but even at the September meeting, the Fed was ready to tighten monetary policy three times. However, the fall in stock indices and the yield of treasury bonds forced her to doubt the correctness of the decisions made.

Dynamics of the likelihood of a recession in the US economy

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The Central Bank did not disregard the testimony of financial markets. Along with concerns about the slowdown of the global economy and the leisurely pace of inflation, these were used as the main argument in favor of a pause in the normalization process. Jerome Powell and other FOMC representatives are increasingly talking about patience. Even yesterday's "hawks" in the face of Eric Rosengren and Charles Evans argue that the best tactic is "sit and see." Macroeconomic statistics for the United States returns to be the center of attention but turning off the government creates serious difficulties for the Fed in understanding the way the US economy is moving.

The dollar is not easy but the euro is not yet able to take advantage of the weakness of its main competitor. The weak data on French and German industrial production, the reluctance of core inflation in the eurozone to go far from the 1% mark, and the phrases about the growing downside risks in GDP for the common currency in the minutes of the December meeting of the Governing Council. If the European Central Bank does not normalize it, EUR / USD is unlikely to break above 1.18, even against the backdrop of such a weak US dollar as it is now.

USD Dynamics index

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The euro may be challenged by a vote in the British parliament on Brexit scheduled for January 14. Rejecting Theresa May's plan, lawmakers will lend a helping hand to pound sellers. At the same time, the synchronous dynamics of EUR / USD and GBP / USD strengthens the risks of returning the euro to the boundaries of the previous consolidation range of 1.1265-1.1485. On the contrary, if the "bulls" succeed in keeping the quotes above the base of the 15th figure, the probability of continuing the rally to the target by 88.6% according to the "Shark" pattern will increase.

EUR / USD daily chart

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Analysis of Gold for January 11, 2019

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Recently, Gold has been trading sideways at the price of $1,288.00. Anyway, according to the H4 time – frame, I have found potential overbought conditions. The price rejected from the upper diagonal of the upward channel, which is a sign that resistance held successfully. I also found the hidden bearish divergence on the RSI oscillator, which is another sign of weakness. My advice is to watch for selling opportunities. I expected Gold to retreat and test the median line of the channel. The downward targets are set at the price of $1,276.00 and at the price of $1,250.95.

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GBP / USD: pound calculates options

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Next week, a fateful vote on Brexit is due to take place in the British parliament, the outcome of which will determine the fate of the pound sterling.

According to representatives of Commerzbank, if the deputies approve the "divorce" agreement, this will be the driver of growth of the GBP / USD pair to the level of 1.31.

Experts of Mizuho Bank, in turn, noted that in the event of a negative scenario, including a new referendum, a vote of no confidence in Teresa May and special elections, the pound sterling could fall to $ 1.1.

"In the current situation, the extension of the UK's withdrawal from the EU looks like the most likely scenario. In this case, the British currency could rise to $ 1.36 and strengthen against the euro to 85 pence," analysts at BNP Paribas believe.

"According to our estimates, short positions in the pound sterling have doubled. This suggests that an upward movement is more likely than a downward movement," they added.

Today, the pound rose to $ 1.28 after the Evening Standard publication reported an increased likelihood of postponing Britain's exit from the EU, although then spokesman for Prime Minister Theresa May later denied this information.

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EUR/USD analysis for January 11, 2019

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Recently, the EUR/USD pair has been trading sideways at the price of 1.1524. According to the M15 time fame, I have found the intraday buying climax in the background, which is a sign that buyers became trapped and that buying at this stage is risky. I have also found the breakout of the upward channel in the background, which is another sign of weakness. My advice is to watch for selling opportunities. The downward target is set at the price of 1.1485.

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Yuan gains altitude

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The beginning of 2019 was marked by the growth of the Chinese currency. To date, the yuan has strengthened against all world currencies, analysts say.

On Thursday, January 10, experts recorded the strengthening of the Chinese currency in relation to the US to the maximum since July 2018. The reason for this was the information about the positive trade negotiations between the US and China.

Experts do not exclude that the official representatives of the Middle Kingdom on trade issues may visit Washington in January of this year. Recall that at the end of last year, the presidents of both countries agreed on a so-called truce of truce, during which a mutually beneficial trade deal could be concluded.

According to the agency Bloomberg, for the week, the strengthening of the yuan amounted to almost 1.5%. The process took place against the backdrop of the actions of the People's Bank of China (NBK), which poured liquidity into the financial system. Experts believe that the similar dynamics of the Chinese currency can persist for quite a long time if the market is resistant to higher Fed rates and possible negative reports about US-China trade negotiations.

Some experts explain the strong dynamics of the yuan by a possible attempt by the Chinese regulator to return the national currency rate to gold at the usual level. Experts believe that at the end of the past year, the monetary authorities of the PRC slightly loosened control over the situation, and now they are trying to catch up.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for GBP/USD for January 11, 2019

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Since Mid-November, Successive Lower Highs were demonstrated around the price levels of 1.3060, 1.2920 and 1.2800 maintaining movement within the depicted H4 bearish channel

Shortly after, a quick decline was demonstrated towards the price level of 1.2500 before bullish recovery could take place on December 12.

A bullish Head & Shoulders pattern was demonstrated on the H4 chart with neckline located around 1.2650-1.2680. Hence, a successful bullish breakout above the depicted bearish channel was demonstrated on December 24.

On December 31, early bullish breakout attempt above 1.2720 was demonstrated on the H4 chart. However, the market failed to maintain sufficient bullish momentum above 1.2800 (mid-range of the depicted consolidation range).

That's why, another bearish pullback was executed towards 1.2500 (backside of the broken channel) where significant bullish recovery was demonstrated during last Thursday's consolidations.

This week, another bullish breakout above 1.2720 was attempted to resume the bullish scenario of the market towards 1.2800, 1.2880 and 1.3000. Otherwise, the pair remains trapped within the previous consolidation range (1.2500-1.2720).

Bullish persistence above 1.2720 is mandatory for buyers. Any decline below 1.2600 invalidates the bullish scenario suggesting a further decline towards 1.2440.

On the other hand, the price level of 1.2800 stands as an intraday key-level corresponding to mid-range of the previous consolidation zone (1.2720-1.2870 which needs to be broken for a further bullish advance.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for January 11, 2019

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On the weekly chart, the EUR/USD pair is demonstrating a long-term Head and Shoulders reversal pattern where the right shoulder is currently in progress.

On the Daily chart, the pair has been moving sideways with slight bearish tendency. Narrow sideway consolidations have been maintained within the depicted daily movement channel since June 2018.

On November 13, the EUR/USD pair demonstrated recent bullish recovery around 1.1220-1.1250 where the lower limit of the channel as well as the depicted demand zone came to meet the pair.

Bullish fixation above 1.1420 was needed to enhance a further bullish movement towards 1.1520. However, the market has demonstrated significant bearish rejection around 1.1420 few times so far.

That's why, the EUR/USD pair has been trapped below the price level of 1.1420 waiting for a bullish breakout since November 5.

Today, a recent attempt of a bullish breakout above 1.1520 (upper limit of the depicted movement channel) is being executed.

Bullish persistence above 1.1520 enables a further bullish advance towards 1.1600 (October's High) and probably 1.1720 if enough bullish momentum is maintained.

On the other hand, any decline below the key-levels of 1.1520 & 1.1420 brings more sideway consolidations down to 1.1260 again.

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GBP / USD pair: plan for the American session on January 11. The pound rose on inflation data, but potential is limited

To open long positions on the GBP / USD pair, you need:

British pound buyers returned to the market after updating the support of 1.2708, which I talked about in more detail in the morning forecast. Good data on the growth of the UK economy helped the pound to break through the resistance of 1.2798 and as long as trade is conducted over this range, the demand will continue leading to an update of the maximum of 1.2868 and 1.2929, where I recommend taking profits. In the case of a return below the support level of 1.2798, you can take a closer look at purchases from the middle of the channel at 1.2753.

To open short positions on the GBP / USD pair, you need:

The bears are required to return to the level of 1.2798, which will lead to the closure of a number of long positions in the pound and a larger fall to the middle of the channel 1.2753, where I recommend taking profits. If GBP / USD continues to grow, short positions can be considered to rebound from the highs of 1.2868 and 1.2929.

Indicator signals:

Moving averages

Trade is conducted just above the 30- and 50-day moving, which indicates the lateral nature of the market.

Bollinger bands

Volatility remains low, which does not give signals to enter the market.

More in the video forecast for January 11

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Description of indicators

MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow

MA (moving average) 30 days - green

MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9

Bollinger Bands 20

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

The euro is strengthening, but there is little cause for optimism.

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The euro ends the week on a positive note amid widespread depreciation of the dollar after cautious signals from the US Federal Reserve System.

In the past three months, the single European currency has failed to get out of the range of $ 1.12- $ 1.15 primarily because of fears that the ECB will not dare to put an end to monetary stimuli in the foreseeable future. However, the pigeon tone of the Fed's protocol, released this week, caused a massive sell-off of the dollar, opening the euro to a maximum of $ 1.1580 and causing a 100-day moving average to break for the first time in three months.

Meanwhile, according to analysts, the growth potential of the euro is limited.

"At present, the single European currency is strengthening mainly due to the weakening of the dollar's position. The risk of taking profits in the $ 1.1620 area remains," said Chris Turner, ING's chief currency strategist in London.

"A weak macroeconomic forecast by the ECB is unlikely to allow the Old World to lure significant amounts of capital from American markets," the expert added.

"Despite the current rally, the euro remains under pressure due to depressing European statistics, especially from France and Germany. In addition, investors expect the ECB to continue to pursue a "soft" policy this year, which is likely to limit the upward potential of the European currency," he said.

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The pound fell on economic data and rose on news from Europe

On today's agenda, traders in the GBP / USD pair have two questions, Brexit and the growth dynamics of the British economy. The topic of the "divorce process" has an undisputed priority, however, macroeconomic indicators should not be overlooked. If the Brexit epic ends in a civilized way, then the rate of monetary policy tightening by the English regulator will depend on the incoming data.

In general, today's release did not impress traders. And although the GDP of Britain turned out to be slightly stronger than expectations, the volume of industrial production completely leveled the positive effect. Thus, the British economy grew by 0.2%, while the forecast was more modest (0.1%). And although the positive dynamic is truly modest, the trend itself is important. We are seeing consistent growth. In August and September, the indicator was at zero, in October it grew by 0.1%, and in November, by 0.2%. Quite a good result, given the fluctuations in PMI indices over the past six months.

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The data on the volume of industrial production frankly disappointed. The indicator remained in the negative area, both on a monthly and annual basis. In November, the indicator was at the level of -0.4% (m / m) and -1.5% (g / g). In annual terms, the indicator even set an anti-record. The last time the index was at such lows in October 2013. Also today, data were released on the UK trade balance for November, the negative balance of which rose to 12 billion pounds (in October the figure was 11.9 billion).

Despite such contradictory figures, traders did not begin to dramatize the situation, focusing on the positive dynamics of British GDP. In addition, at the moment the pair is fully focused on the upcoming vote in the British Parliament. Some support for the GBP / USD pair was provided by the comments of European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker, who said that "every effort must be made to accept the Brexit deal," while the chaotic exit of the country from the EU "will be a disaster". This is rather unexpected rhetoric of Juncker, because literally the day before yesterday, during a telephone conversation with May, he again voiced to the British prime minister the thesis that "there will be no new negotiations on the deal."

Today, traders literally jumped at the phrase of the EC Chairman. Now, any hint of the implementation of the "soft" Brexit is worth its weight in gold, as the most disturbing signals have recently entered the market. For example, the amendments to the tax legislation adopted the day before yesterday indicate the number of Theresa May's opponents, both among Labor and among conservatives. Against this background, key European countries announced "readiness No. 1", awaiting the chaotic Brexit. In particular, today the German Chancellor Angela Merkel said that Germany has developed a detailed action plan in case of the implementation of this scenario. Earlier, similar statements were made by the representatives of Austria, France, and other EU countries.

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That is why the position voiced by Juncker resumed hopes for a compromise. Let me remind you that in early January there were rumors in Britain that Theresa May's team was developing a plan according to which Parliament would approve the deal but on condition that the European Union would give additional concessions. In this case, the final decision on the transaction will have to be taken by Brussels. That is, the fate of the "divorce process" will depend on Europe.

This scenario has one significant vulnerability. If Brussels will continue to follow its previously voiced position (no negotiations under any circumstances), then there is no point in such a decision of the British parliament. For this reason, today's comments by Juncker caused such a stir among GBP / USD traders. By and large, he did not rule out the likelihood of this option being implemented and this fact eclipsed all of today's macroeconomic releases. According to rumors, the EU is still going to provide the UK with guarantees regarding the Irish backstop.

However, I still recommend trading with particular care with a pair of GBP / USD, especially today. The position of the head of the European Commission requires further clarification, whereas at the weekend the situation may change dramatically (in particular, May may again postpone the vote or postpone the exit of the country from the EU). Also, we should not forget that during the American session, there will be a release of key data on the growth of inflation in the United States. Such a saturated fundamental background can provoke an increased volatility over a pair of GBP / USD, whereas it is almost impossible to predict the price direction vector in such conditions.

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EUR / USD pair: plan for the US session on January 11. Euro buyers do not want to give up

To open long positions on EUR / USD pair, you need:

In the afternoon, the entire calculation will be on the inflation data in the United States. They will only be able to lead a change in the situation on the market, which is lateral in nature. Buyers are required to return to the resistance level of 1.1538, which the further continuation of the uptrend directly depends, and updating the highs of 1.1573 and 1.1605, where I recommend taking profits. In the event of a decline in the euro after inflation data, purchases can return on a false breakdown from 1.1498 or on a rebound from a minimum of 1.1465.

To open short positions on EUR / USD pair, you need:

European currency sellers are required to form a false breakdown at the resistance level of 1.1538, which will lead to the formation of the upper limit of the new downward channel and will push the EUR / USD to the area of 1.1498 and 1.1465 lows, where I recommend taking profits. However, a larger decline will depend on data on US inflation, which is expected to happen in the afternoon.In case of growth above the resistance level of 1.1538, short positions in euro can return to the rebound from the highs of 1.1573 and 1.1605.

Indicator signals:

Moving averages

Trade is conducted in the 30- and 50-day average, indicating a market uncertainty.

Bollinger bands

The upper limit of the Bollinger Bands indicator around 1.1538 limits the upward potential of the euro, but breaking it down will lead to a sharp increase in the euro. The lower boundary of the indicator in the area 1.1490 will act as a support, from which you can see long positions.

More in the video forecast for January 11

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Description of indicators

MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow

MA (moving average) 30 days - green

MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9

Bollinger Bands 20

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Trading Plan 01/11/2019

The big picture: Shutdown in the United States and the Brexit agreement in the British Parliament.

In the British Parliament, the debate began on an agreement with the EU. According to the mood in the parliament, Theresa May can not get a majority. Voting is next Tuesday on January 15.

The second topic is the shutdown in the United States with Trump negotiations. On the other, Democrats in Congress have failed. Both sides are in tough positions as Trump is demanding money to build a wall with Mexico while the Democrats are firmly against. As a result, the budget has not been adopted and financing of government agencies is limited due to a small issue for the United States.

In Europe, new data show a sharp slowdown in demand for cars.

Overall, the US and EU economies show signs of slowing growth. This is a strong argument against the new rate hike by the Fed and that is against the dollar.

Euro: We keep purchases from 1.1500 per upward trend.

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Overview of the foreign exchange market on January 11, 2019

As expected, the content of the text of the minutes of the meeting of the Board of the European Central Bank did not give a definite answer to the question about the timing of the increase in the refinancing rate. The office of Mario Draghi only once again confirmed its intentions to begin to consider this issue, and not earlier than the end of the autumn of the current year. We can say that this has somewhat disappointed investors, which is reflected in the strengthening of the dollar. Although not much. However, the significance of the text of the protocol is so great that the market did not even pay attention to the data on applications for unemployment benefits in the United States, the total number of which decreased by 45 thousand, which is quite significant. Thus, the number of initial claims for unemployment benefits fell by 17 thousand and repeated by another 28 thousand

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Today, data on inflation in the United States is published, and it is predicted that it will remain unchanged. Nevertheless, the stability of inflation kills even hints of the possibility of a more active tightening of the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve System. Thus, if the data coincide with the forecasts, it will become obvious to everyone that for the time being it is necessary to proceed from the current scenario, which implies two increases in the refinancing rate in the current year. This, of course, increases the attractiveness of the single European currency, but not by much, and the euro will trade at a mark of 1.1550.

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With the pound, everything is somewhat more interesting, since today a number of interesting data is released in the UK. In particular, industrial production, which has so far demonstrated a steady decline of 0.8%, can slightly please market participants with an improvement in the situation and show a decline of only 0.7%. And this is all in annual terms. But it is clear that this is all just because of Brexit. Well, or so explain it. Also today, there are preliminary data on GDP for the fourth quarter, which should show that the United Kingdom maintains the current rates of economic growth, and this will not affect the market. Thus, due to the symbolic, but improving the situation in the industry, the pound will be able to improve its position and rise to 1.12800.

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For the ruble, the situation will develop similarly, and against the background of a moderate market reaction to inflation in the United States, it will be able to strengthen its position. However, it is extremely modest and, most likely, not for long. Oil, which has a rather weak effect on the ruble, in such a situation will act as a guide. Well, you need to rely on something. And given its continued growth, it will also have a positive effect on the ruble. Consequently, it is worth waiting for a gradual decline in the dollar to 66.25 rubles.

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Wave analysis of EUR / USD for January 11. Eurocurrency is ready for tangible growth

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Wave counting analysis:

On Thursday, January 10, trading ended for EUR / USD by 43 bp decline. Thus, the pair presumably remains within the framework of the construction of wave 3, in s. If this is true, then the increase in quotations will resume with targets located near the Fibonacci level of 161.8%. There are no grounds for assuming the resumption of the construction of the downward trend section.

Sales targets:

1.1444 - 38.2% Fibonacci (formal goal)

Shopping goals:

1.1599 - 161.8% Fibonacci

1.1677 - 200.0% Fibonacci

General conclusions and trading recommendations:

The pair continues to be in the construction stage of the proposed wave. Thus, I still recommend buying a pair with targets located near the estimated marks of 1.1599 and 1.1677, which corresponds to 161.8% and 200.0% of Fibonacci. The internal correctional wave in 3, in s should not be extended. The news background for today can support both the euro and the dollar.

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Technical analysis of USD/CAD for January 11, 2019

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Overview:

The USD/CAD pair has dropped sharply from the level of 1.3419 towards 1.3181. Now, the price is set at 1.3297 and acts as a daily pivot point. It should be noted that volatility is very high, so the USD/CAD pair will continue to move between 1.3297 and 1.3181 in the coming hours. Furthermore, the price has been set below the strong resistance at the levels of 1.3297 and 1.3419, which coincides with the 23.6% and 50% Fibonacci retracement level, respectively. Additionally, the price is in a bearish channel now. Amid the previous events, the pair is still in a downtrend. From this point, the USD/CAD pair continues to move in the bearish trend from the new resistance of 1.3297. Thereupon, the price spot of 1.3297 remains to be a significant resistance zone. Therefore, a possibility that the USD/CAD pair will have downside momentum is rather convincing and the structure of a fall does not look corrective. In order to indicate a bearish opportunity below 1.3297, sell below 1.3297 with the first targets at 1.3181 and 1.3066. However, a stop loss order should be located above the level of 1.3419.

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GBP / USD pair: plan for the European session on January 11. Traders are waiting for data on GDP and Industrial production

To open long positions on the GBP / USD pair, you need:

There is no news on Brexit but the UK GDP data is expected today, which could push the pound lower. While trading is above the support of 1.2753, buyers of the British pound still have a chance to continue the upward trend but this requires breakdown and consolidation above the resistance of 1.2798, which will open the way to new monthly highs around 1.2868 and 1.2929, where I recommend taking profits. All of this movement will be formed only with a good report on the growth of the UK economy. In the case of a decline below the support level of 1.2753, it is best to consider long positions to rebound from the lows of 1.2708 and 1.2658.

To open short positions on the GBP / USD pair, you need:

Only an unsuccessful consolidation above the resistance of 1.2798 will lead to a return, which may coincide with a weak report on GDP, and a breakdown of support at 1.2753, which will collapse GBP / USD to minimums around 1.2708 and 1.2658, where I recommend taking profits. Positive news on GDP or Brexit from the UK Parliament could lead to a sharp increase in the pound. In this scenario, short positions can be opened after the highs of 1.2868 and 1.2929 are updated.

Indicator signals:

Moving averages

Trade is conducted in the area of 30-day and 50-day moving, which indicates the lateral nature of the market.

Bollinger bands

Volatility is very low, which does not give signals for entering the market.

More details about the forecast can be found in the video review.

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Description of indicators

MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow

MA (moving average) 30 days - green

MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9

Bollinger Bands 20

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

BITCOIN Analysis for January 11, 2019

Bitcoin has been quite impulsive and non-volatile with the recent bearish momentum after breaking below $4,000 area with a daily close. The price is currently correcting itself near $3,500-600 support area from where certain pullbacks towards the dynamic level have been observed. The price is expected to push lower towards $3,000 support area in the future. The Kumo Cloud resistance is increasing its width currently which might lead to further impressive bearish pressure in the future. After breaking below 200 EMA, the price action indicates the shift of sentiment in the market, thus generating the bearish pressure. As the price remains below $4,000 area with a daily close, the bearish pressure is expected to continue.

SUPPORT: ,3000, 3,500, 3,600

RESISTANCE: 4,000, 4,250, 4,500

BIAS: BEARISH

MOMENTUM: NON-VOLATILE

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for January 11, 2019

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Overview:

The NZD/USD pair breached resistance which had turned into strong support at the level of 0.6705 this week. The level of 0.6705 coincides with a golden ratio (61.8% of Fibonacci), which is expected to act as major support today. The RSI is considered to be overbought, because it is above 70. The RSI is still signaling that the trend is upward as it is still strong above the moving average (100). Besides, note that the pivot point is seen at the point of 0.6882. This suggests that the pair will probably go up in the coming hours. Accordingly, the market is likely to show signs of a bullish trend. In other words, buy orders are recommended to be placed above 0.6800 with the first target at the level of 0.6882. From this point, the pair is likely to begin an ascending movement to the point of 0.6882 and further to the level of 0.6984. The level of 0.6984 will act as strong resistance. However, if there is a breakout at the support level of 0.6705, this scenario may become invalidated.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Indicator analysis. Daily review for January 11, 2019 for the EUR / USD pair

On Friday, the price will move up. The first upper target 1.1571 is the upper fractal.

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Fig. 1 (daily schedule).

Comprehensive analysis:

- indicator analysis - up;

- Fibonacci levels - up;

- volumes - up;

- candlestick analysis - up;

- trend analysis - up;

- Bollinger lines - up;

- weekly schedule - up.

General conclusion:

On Friday, the price will move up. The first upper target 1.1571 is the upper fractal.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR / USD pair: plan for the European session on January 11. Fed Chairman won't rush to raise rates this year

To open long positions on EUR / USD pair, you need:

Speech by the Fed Chairman did not lead to serious changes in the market and only slightly strengthened the position of the US dollar against the euro. At the moment, buyers need a quick return to the resistance level of 1.1538, on which the further continuation of the uptrend directly depends on, and update the highs of 1.1573 and 1.1605, where I recommend taking profits. In the event of a euro decline in the first half of the day, purchases can be returned on a false breakdown from 1.1498 or to rebound from a minimum of 1.1465.

To open short positions on EUR / USD pair, you need:

European currency sellers are required to form a false breakdown at the resistance level of 1.1538, which will lead to the formation of the upper limit of the new downward channel and will push the EUR / USD pair to the area of 1.1498 and 1.1465 lows, where I recommend taking profits. However, a larger decline will depend on data on US inflation, which is expected in the afternoon. In case of growth above the resistance level of 1.1538, short positions in euro can return to the rebound from the highs of 1.1573 and 1.1605.

Indicator signals:

Moving averages

Trade is conducted in the area of 30- and 50-day moving averages, which indicates a possible side trend.

Bollinger bands

Growth is limited by the upper line of the Bollinger Bands indicator, which is located in the area of 1.1538, where you can open short positions during the formation of a false breakdown. The downward trend will be limited by the lower boundary of the indicator in the 1.1490 area.

More details about the forecast can be found in the video review.

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Description of indicators

MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow

MA (moving average) 30 days - green

MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9

Bollinger Bands 20

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Wave analysis of GBP / USD for January 11. Reports from Britain and the United States may affect the wave pattern

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Wave counting analysis:

On January 10, the GBP / USD pair lost about 45 bp. Thus, wave 2, 3 or s takes a more complex form and does not go beyond the maximum of December 31, thus maintaining the integrity of the current wave marking and the instrument's chances of a new decline within the expected wave 3, 3 or c. Based on this, I expect the resumption of reduction of quotations. However, the news background can make adjustments to the current wave marking. Today, there will be information about GDP in the UK and inflation in the United States which are quite important reports.

Shopping goals:

1.2815 - 0.0% Fibonacci

Sales targets:

1.2385 - 127.2% Fibonacci

1.2270 - 161.8% Fibonacci

General conclusions and trading recommendations:

The pair GBP / USD is still in the process of completing the construction of wave 2, 3, or c. I still recommend cautious sales of a pair with targets around 25, and below, based on building wave 3, 3, or c. I recommend going over to purchases only in case of a successful attempt to break through the mark of 1.2814, which will lead to complication of the current wave marking.

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EUR / USD: The growth potential of the euro is limited. Inflation data may help us dollar

The American dollar regained some of its positions after yesterday's publication of the European Central Bank's minutes from the monetary policy meeting, as well as against the background of good data on the US labor market.

Speech by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell also reassured traders and investors.

Yesterday, US President Donald Trump said that if negotiations on the financing of the construction of the wall were unsuccessful, he could declare a state of emergency in the country. Trump also noted that he will not go to the World Economic Forum in Davos this month if the work of the government does not resume.

The data, which came out yesterday afternoon, supported the US dollar. Despite the fact that the data were only weekly, the stable situation in the labor market continues to support the American economy.

According to a report by the US Department of Labor, the number of Americans who first applied for unemployment benefits declined by 17,000 to a total of 216,000 in the week from December 30 to January 5. Economists had expected the number of applications to be 230,000.

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Also yesterday, everyone closely followed the performance of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell at the Washington Economic Club.

At the beginning of the speech, Powell noted that 2018 was very good for the US economy, and the labor market remains strong enough in many respects.

As for interest rates, there is no plan for raising them. The Fed Chairman said he would be patient while watching the situation in the economy.

Criticism of US President Donald Trump also does not cause Powell to worry, since, in his words, he does not take political factors into account when making monetary policy decisions. There is no information about the meeting of the Fed Chairman with Trump.

During the speech, the Fed Chairman also touched upon the problem of instability in financial markets, which, in his opinion, is caused by concerns about trade and world economic growth. However, Powell noted that he was ready to quickly and flexibly change the policy, if necessary.

At the end of the speech, the discussion was about the suspension of government work, which usually does not affect the economy, but a longer suspension of work may be reflected in the economic data.

As for the technical picture of the EUR / USD currency pair, the upward potential of the euro is under threat. Today, traders will closely monitor data on inflation in the US, and the reaction of the market can be anything. On the one hand, weak data will not allow us to expect a further increase in interest rates, on the other hand, low-key inflation will allow the Fed to take a pause, which will definitely help financial markets.

Breakthrough and consolidation above the resistance of 1.1540 may lead to the preservation of the upward potential in risky assets, but the main goal will be to break this week's high around 1.1575. In case of unsuccessful growth above the level of 1.1540, the lower limit of the new downward price channel can be formed, which will push the trading instrument to the minimum of 1.1490 and 1.1440.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP / USD. January 11th. The trading system. "Regression Channels". The pound is in prostration.

4-hour timeframe

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Technical details:

The senior linear regression channel: direction - down.

The younger linear regression channel: direction - up.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - up.

CCI: 24.5871

The currency pair GBP / USD on Friday, January 11, corrected to the area of the moving average line, but, unlike the Euro currency, there are no signs of a resumption of the upward movement. Thus, we again state the fact that the correlation between the main two pairs is now low, and the pound sterling continues to experience pressure on itself due to the sheer uncertainty of everything related to the Brexit theme. The day is coming when a vote on the Theresa May bill should take place, so the reluctance of traders to take risks before such an important event is very logical. Today in the UK are scheduled to publish reports on GDP and industrial production. Strong report values may not provide adequate support to the pound, but weak indicators may help the pair to gain a foothold below the moving average. In the States today, a report on the consumer price index for December will be released, and with him everything is the same. A strong report and the dollar is likely to rise in price. Weak data can be ignored. From a technical point of view, the growth potential of the British currency is also limited, at the moment, the level of 1.2800. Therefore, it remains only to wait for the pair to fix below the moving average or, conversely, above the level of 1.2800.

Nearest support levels:

S1 - 1.2756

S2 - 1.2695

S3 - 1.2634

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 - 1.2817

Trading recommendations:

The currency pair GBP / USD is adjusted. New long positions can be opened with targets between the levels of 1.2800 and 1.2817, if the Heikin Ashi indicator turns up. Above the moving average, the weak uptrend of the instrument remains.

Sell positions should be considered after the price is fixed below the moving average line. In this case, the initiative on the instrument will go into the hands of bears, and the first target for short positions will be the Murray level of "7/8" - 1.2634.

In addition to the technical picture, you should also consider the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanations for illustrations:

The senior linear regression channel is the blue lines of the unidirectional movement.

The junior linear channel is the purple lines of the unidirectional movement.

CCI is the blue line in the indicator regression window.

The moving average (20; smoothed) is the blue line on the price chart.

Murray levels - multi-colored horizontal stripes.

Heikin Ashi is an indicator that colors bars in blue or purple.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR / USD. January 11th. The trading system. "Regression Channels". Jerome Powell's rhetoric remains "pigeon"

4-hour timeframe

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Technical details:

The senior linear regression channel: direction - sideways.

The younger linear regression channel: direction - up.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - up.

CCI: 22.4301

The EUR / USD currency pair on Friday, January 11, after a rather small correction, resumed an upward movement, as indicated by the indicator Heikin Ashi. Thus, after overcoming an important area of resistance around the level of 1.1470, we can say that the pair has moved to an uptrend, which remains at the moment. Jerome Powell's speech yesterday was softer than previously received information from the Fed, but the rhetoric remained "pigeon". The head of the Fed said that the previously announced plan for two increases in the key rate in 2019 could be revised downwards. Further, the head of the Fed is concerned about the slowdown in economic growth in China, and a slowdown in US inflation could be just the reason that will not allow raising rates in the future. In general, Powell said that the regulator will not rush to raise the rate. On the last trading day of the week in the United States, it is scheduled to publish a report just on inflation. The forecast is 2.2% in December y/y. Any value of the indicator below the forecast can "confirm" Powell's fears and put pressure on the US dollar position in the context of one day. The technical picture of the instrument also now suggests the continuation of the upward movement.

Nearest support levels:

S1 - 1.1475

S2 - 1.1414

S3 - 1.1353

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 - 1.1536

R2 - 1.1597

R3 - 1.1658

Trading recommendations:

The EUR / USD currency pair has resumed its upward movement. Therefore, at the moment, it is recommended to trade on the increase with the aim of 1.1597. A new turn of the Heikin Ashi indicator down will signal a new round of downward correction.

Short positions will become relevant, not earlier reversing the pair below the moving average line. In this case, the tendency for the pair to change to downward, and the first goal will be the Murray level of "3/8" - 1.1414.

In addition to the technical picture, you should also consider the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanations for illustrations:

The senior linear regression channel is the blue lines of the unidirectional movement.

The younger linear regression channel is the purple lines of the unidirectional movement.

CCI - blue line in the indicator window.

The moving average (20; smoothed) is the blue line on the price chart.

Murray levels - multi-colored horizontal stripes.

Heikin Ashi is an indicator that colors bars in blue or purple.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis for Gold for January 11, 2019

Gold price has not made a new high yet. Price seems to be moving sideways as we are currently in a very short-term correction/consolidation phase before the next upward wave. Price remains inside the bullish channel and above short-term support so trend remains bullish.

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Green rectangles - support areas

Purple lines - bullish channel

Black lines - possible triangle pattern

Gold price might be forming a triangle pattern. If this is the case, a break above $1.298 would give me $1,320-25 as the triangle breakout target. We will also need to keep an eye on the RSI to see if we get any bearish divergence signal. So far we continue to consider price to be in a bullish trend, at least as long as we hold above $1,270. Breaking below $1,270 would put the medium-term bullish trend and our $1,350 target in danger.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Euro is in no hurry to regain weak dollar

Fed Chairman J. Powell, speaking as part of the discussion at the energy club forum, said that the growth rate of the national debt and the budget deficit are of serious concern and one way or another, they require a solution in the long term. The normalization policy led, among other things, to an increase in interest payments on government obligations, and the budget does not withstand pressure.

According to the Congressional Budget Committee, in the first quarter of the 2019 fiscal year, the US budget deficit increased by 92 billion compared to last year, which amounted to $ 317 billion, while revenues remained the same and expenses increased by almost 9%. The main increase in expenditures recorded in the framework of voracious social programs, as well as net interest payments on public debt in December alone, amounted to 47%, and given the exhaustion of the public debt ceiling, this expenditure will only increase, and the budget deficit will exceed a trillion in the very near future.

Eurozone

The minutes of the last meeting of the ECB confirmed that the bank remains satisfied with the current parameters of the monetary policy, the prospects for further growth of the eurozone economy are assessed as optimistic, no real measures were taken to discuss the possible easing.

At the same time, there are some discrepancies between the ECB estimate and emerging market expectations. The ECB assesses the risks of slowing the economy as balanced, but recent PMI data indicate an increase in negative.

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Also, the ECB remains confident that higher wage growth will lead to an increase in core inflation, wage growth looks quite dynamic from a historical point of view.

Apparently, the ECB aims to prevent a sharp exit from the "comfort zone", however, markets believe that the regulator shows excessive optimism that does not correspond to the real state of affairs, and that is why the euro cannot develop its success against the clearly weakening dollar. Data on business activity is getting worse and worse, because of protests in France, PMI is very low in services, production activity in Germany continues to slow down, which ultimately somehow leads to very weak GDP growth in the 4th quarter of 2018.

December inflation fell from 1.9% to 1.6%, largely due to weak prices for oil and oil products, but core inflation also remains at a low level of 1.0%. The only thing that gives some optimism is wage growth, which in December reached a 10-year high of 2.5%. It is possible that inflation will show itself from the second quarter, but so far the euro has not received support from this side.

Technically, the euro still looks like a favorite in tandem with the dollar, aided by a sharp increase in US problems, both political and macroeconomics. EUR / USD came close to the 200-day SMA, the breakdown of which would open the way to the resistance of 1.1813. In the short term, we should expect attempts to update the recent maximum of 1.1570 and gain a foothold above.

Great Britain

The closer the parliamentary vote on Brexit, the gloomier the forecasts. There are no signs that May will be able to gather the majority and approve the draft agreement, the pound is trading in a narrow range in anticipation of news. Support of 1.2705, a resistance of 1.2813, GBP / USD has no direction, out of range can be swift in any direction.

Oil and Ruble

The positive results of the US-China trade negotiations, as well as Saudi Arabia's intention to raise selling prices for US buyers, contributed to a further recovery in oil prices, even with bearish statistics on US stocks. Most likely, the current price level is close to the maximum, and oil will begin to consolidate. Brent will try to keep above $ 60 per barrel, which suits most players.

The ruble looks confident, but soon the Central Bank will begin to purchase currency for the Ministry of Finance as part of its previously announced plans, which will allow it to flexibly influence its rate and contribute to a rollback in the range of 67 - 68 rubles/dollar.

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Ichimoku cloud indicator analysis for EUR/USD for January 11, 2019

EUR/USD as expected by our last analysis is pulling back towards 1.15-1.1470 area. I consider this to be a back test of the breakout area and I expect prices to bounce higher towards 1.17 at least from current levels.

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Red line - major trend line resistance

Green line - trend line support

As we saw this week, EUR/USD finally broke out and above its two month trading range and recaptured the 1.15 level. Price has broken above both the downward sloping trend line and the Daily Ichimoku cloud. As long as price is above the cloud we remain bullish medium-term. Support is found at 1.1435 next. Bulls do not want to see this level broken. The ideal scenario for bulls would be to see price break above 1.1570 soon and recapture 1.16. Holding above 1.15 would also be good for bulls as this would mean that there are no selling pressures strong enough to bring price back inside the trading range. On the other hand bears want to see price fall back below 1.1470 and most importantly below 1.1435. Medium-term trend will change to bearish once again if we see price break below the green trend line. Then we will be targeting a move to new lows towards 1.10.

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Analysis of the divergence of EUR / USD for January 11. Bullish divergence on the side of the euro currency

4h

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The EUR / USD currency pair fell below the correction level of 50.0% - 1.1517, but after the formation of a bullish divergence at the CCI indicator, it made a U-turn in favor of the EU currency and closed above the level of 50.0%. As a result, on January 11, the growth process can be continued in the direction of the next Fibo level of 61.8% - 1.1587. The new consolidation of quotations of the pair below the level of 50.0% can be interpreted as a reversal in favor of the American currency and the resumption of the fall in the direction of the correction level of 38.2% - 1.1446 is expected.

The Fibo grid is built on extremes from September 24, 2018, and November 12, 2018.

Daily

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On the 24-hour chart, the currency pair made an increase to the correctional level of 100.0% - 1.1553. The end of quotes from this Fibo level will allow traders to expect a reversal in favor of the US currency and a slight drop in the direction of the correction level of 127.2% - 1,1285. Fixing the pair above the Fibo level of 100.0% will increase the probability of continued growth in the direction of the next correction level of 76.4% - 1.1789.

The Fibo grid is built on extremums from November 7, 2017, and February 16, 2018.

Recommendations to traders:

Purchases of the EUR / USD currency pair can be made now with a target of 1.1587 and a Stop Loss order below the Fibo level of 50.0% since the pair has completed consolidation above the level of 1.1517 with the formation of bullish divergence.

Sales of the EUR / USD currency pair can be made with the target of 1.1446 with a Stop Loss order above the Fibo level of 50.0% if the pair closes below the level of 1.1517.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Analysis of GBP / USD Divergences for January 11th. Bearish divergence does not allow the pound to grow further

4h

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The currency pair GBP / USD on a 4-hour chart made a new turn in favor of the American currency after the formation of the second bearish divergence at the MACD indicator. As a result, the process of falling quotations can be continued on January 11 in the direction of the correction level of 100.0% - 1.2662. There are no maturing divergences on the current chart. Fixing the pair above the Fibo level of 76.4% will work in favor of the British currency and the resumption of growth in the direction of the correction level of 61.8% - 1.2905.

The Fibo grid was built on extremes from August 15, 2018, and September 20, 2018.

1h

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On the hourly chart, quotes made another rebound from the correction level of 76.4% - 1.2725 with a reversal in favor of the pound sterling and resumed growth in the direction of 100.0% - 1.2815. Today, a bearish divergence is brewing at the CCI indicator. The education will allow us to expect a reversal in favor of the US currency and a return to the Fibo level of 76.4%. A close below the level of 76.4% will increase the probability of a further fall in the direction of the next correctional level of 61.8% - 1.2669.

The Fibo grid is built on extremes from December 31, 2018, and January 3, 2019.

Recommendations to traders:

Purchases of the GBP / USD currency pair can be carried out now with a target of 1.2815 and a Stop Loss order below the level of 76.4% since the pair completed the rebound from the level of 1.2725 (hourly chart) and hold the purchases until a bearish divergence is formed.

Sales of the GBP / USD currency pair can be carried out with a target of 1.2669 and a Stop Loss order above the level of 76.4% if the pair closes below the level of 1.2725 (hourly chart).

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Trading plan for 11/01/2019

On Friday, the 11th of January, the eye of all traders should be focused on UK data such as GDP, Industrial Production, and Manufacturing Production. The other important data are from the US in form of Consumer Price Index, UoM Consumer Sentiment, UoM Inflation Expectations and Federal Budget Balance. No speeches are scheduled for today.

GBP/USD analysis for 11/01/2019:

The UK Gross Domestic Product data are scheduled for release at 09:30 am GMT and the global investors are expecting no change in the level of GDP on the monthly basis (0.1%), but a possible slight decrease is expected at the yearly quarterly basis from 0.4% to 0.3%.

The Gross Domestic Product is a comprehensive measure of overall production and consumption of goods and services. GDP serves as one of the primary measures of overall economic well-being. While GDP announcements generally conform to expectations, unanticipated changes in this metric can move markets.

Robust GDP growth signals a heightened level of economic activity and often a higher demand for the domestic currency. At the same time, economic expansion raises concerns about inflationary pressures which may lead monetary authorities to increase interest rates. Thus better than expected GDP figures are generally bullish for the Euro, while negative readings are generally bearish.

Let's now take a look at the GBP/USD technical picture at the H4 time frame. The market tried many times to break through the technical resistance at the level of 1.2705 - 1.2810 but failed every time. Despite the fact, that the price is still consolidating in a relatively tight range between the levels of 1.2705 - 1.2810, the bears are now starting to regain the control of the market as the conditions are now overbought and the momentum is barely above the neutral level. If the bears will violate the level of 1.2705, then the next target for them is seen at the level of 1.2647 and below. On the other hand, the next technical resistance is seen at the level of 1.2824.

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Bitcoin analysis for 11/01/2019

Recently global investors have seen an interesting situation on the market, when the price of Bitcoin, the largest cryptocurrency, fell from 4,050 to 3,800 dollars in a few minutes. Correction with every hour is getting worse.

The whole move down erase the profits from January 7, when the BTC / USD, make the same move, but in the opposite direction. Bitcoin remains at + 11% compared to the previous month and looking further back, its price remains lower by more than 1/3 compared to three months.

In the social media, commentators speculated on why the Monday profits disappeared and the theories seem to favor moving on the stock exchanges.

Despite falling below $ 4,000, BTC/USD remains well above the worst scenario forecasted by analysts such as Tone Vays, which warned that Bitcoin in hand against the dollar, could fall to $ 1,300 or even lower. Now, the focus is on 2019 and potential slow preparation for new price records.

On Twitter, an account named planB suggested that the Bitcoin price would keep the 200-day side trend this year and then increase to $ 100,000 in 2021. By half time in May 2020, Bitcoin will cost around $ 8,000.

Another analyst and shareholder of Bitcoinist Filbfilb, additionally paid attention to clear support lines at prices of 3,600 and 3,100 dollars: "If it will be dumped at this level, we reaffirm the view that we will again test the price of $ 3,100".

In the meantime, the altcoins continue to follow Bitcoin and react to its movements. At this moment, Bitcoin already costs 3,595 dollars and the local low was made just under the 61% Fibo at 3,470 USD.

analytics5c3838ec1845a.jpg

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A slowdown in US inflation will weaken the dollar

Yesterday's speech by Fed Chairman J. Powell reassured the markets again, allowing them to resume growth. In his speech, he confirmed the expectations of the markets that the American regulator will proceed from the development of the situation in decisions on rates and will act "quickly and flexible." He noted that the markets are too pessimistic about the prospects for the American economy, which, in his opinion, is unjustified. On the whole, his rhetoric was positive and was not filled with promises of the continuation of interest rates that would be mandatory this year.

In the wake of Powell's speech, the dollar received short-term support on Thursday, but already today its decline has resumed in the Asian trading session. Today, the focus of the market will be the publication of updated data on consumer inflation in the United States. They will undoubtedly have a noticeable impact on the market.

According to the forecast, inflation pressure is expected to decrease in annual terms to 1.9% from 2.2%. It is assumed that in December, the consumer price index fell by 0.1% from the November zero value. At the same time, it is assumed that the basic consumer price index will maintain its monthly dynamics of 2.2%.

How can the dollar react to the publication of these data, and what should be expected from financial markets?

In our opinion, if the data turns out to be in line with the forecast or demonstrates a weakening of inflationary pressure, this will have a negative impact on the US dollar rate and support the demand for risky assets in the markets. At the same time, if the values of consumer inflation, on the contrary, demonstrate its strengthening, we should expect a drop in market hopes that the Fed will stop raising interest rates this year. This will lead to sales in the markets of risky assets, first of all, company shares, and an increase in the dollar rate. But the likelihood of a second scenario remains low, so most likely we will see continued growth in demand for companies' shares, commodity market assets and a local weakening of the dollar.

Forecast of the day:

The EUR / USD currency pair can get support on the wave of data on consumer inflation in the US if its slowdown is confirmed by data published today. Overcoming the price level of 1.1525 may lead to its continued growth to 1.1600-15.

The currency pair USD / CAD "lies" at the level of 1.3200. The negative inflation data for the US dollar may push the pair down to 1.3140 after it consolidates below 1.3200.

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Fractal analysis of major currency pairs for January 11

Dear colleagues.

For the currency pair Euro / Dollar, the price is in the correction zone of the rising structure of January 2 and the level of 1.1451 is the key support. For the Pound / Dollar currency pair, we should continue the development of the ascending structure from January 2 after the breakdown of 1.2813. For the currency pair Dollar / Franc, the price forms a pronounced potential for the top of January 10. For the currency pair Dollar / Yen, the price is in the area of the descending structure of January 8 and we expect the continuation of the downward movement after the breakdown of 107.96. For the Euro / Yen currency pair, we expect a continuation of the upward movement after the breakdown of 125.15. For the currency pair Pound / Yen, we also continue to follow the development of the upward structure from January 3 and the level of 139.50 is the key resistance.

Forecast for January 11:

Analytical review of H1-scale currency pairs:

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For the Euro / Dollar currency pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are 1.1660, 1.1625, 1.1578, 1.1554, 1.1516, 1.1492 and 1.1451. Here, the price is in correction from the upward structure on January 2. The short-term upward movement is possible in the range of 1.1554 - 1.1578 and the breakdown of the latter value should be accompanied by a pronounced upward movement. Here, the target is 1.1625. The potential value for the top is considered the level of 1.1660, after reaching which we expect a consolidated movement, as well as a departure to a correction.

The short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 1.1516 - 1.1492 and the breakdown of the latter value will lead to a prolonged movement. Here, the target is 1.1451 and this level is the key support for the top.

The main trend is the ascending structure of January 2.

Trading recommendations:

Buy 1.1578 Take profit: 1.1625

Buy 1.1627 Take profit: 1.1660

Sell: 1.1516 Take profit: 1.1495

Sell: 1.1490 Take profit: 1.1455

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For the Pound / Dollar currency pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are 1.2960, 1.2875, 1.2813, 1.2734, 1.2695 and 1.2645. Here, we are following the ascending structure of January 2. An upward movement is expected after the breakdown of 1.2813. In this case, the target is 1.2875 and in the range of 1.2813 - 1.2875 is the price consolidation. The potential value for the top is considered the level of 1.2960, upon reaching which we expect a rollback downwards.

The short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 1.2734 - 1.2695 and the breakdown of the latter value will lead to a prolonged correction. Here, the target is 1.2645 and this level is the key support for the top.

The main trend is the ascending structure of January 2.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.2815 Take profit: 1.2870

Buy: 1.2877 Take profit: 1.2940

Sell: 1.2734 Take profit: 1.2698

Sell: 1.2690 Take profit: 1.2660

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For the Dollar / Frank currency pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are 0.9951, 0.9930, 0.9879, 0.9857, 0.9816, 0.9796 and 0.9767. Here, the price forms a pronounced ascending structure from January 10. The short-term upward movement is possible in the range of 0.9857 - 0.9879 and the breakdown of the latter value should be accompanied by a pronounced upward movement. Here, the target is 0.9930. The potential value for the top is considered the level of 0.9951, upon reaching which we expect a rollback downwards.

The short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 0.9816 - 0.9796 and the breakdown of the latter value will lead to a prolonged correction. Here, the target is 0.9767 and this level is the key support for the upward structure.

The main trend is the formation of the ascending structure from January 10.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 0.9857 Take profit: 0.9876

Buy: 0.9882 Take profit: 0.9930

Sell: 0.9816 Take profit: 0.9798

Sell: 0.9794 Take profit: 0.9768

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For the Dollar / Yen currency pair, the key levels on the scale are 108.69, 108.47, 108.29, 107.96, 107.66 and 107.25. Here, we are following the descending structure of January 8. We expect the downward movement to continue after the breakdown of 107.96. In this case, the target is 107.66 and price consolidation is near this level. A potential value for the bottom is considered to be the level of 107.25, a pronounced movement to which is expected after the breakdown of 107.65.

The short-term upward movement is possible in the range of 108.29 - 108.47 and the breakdown of the last value will lead to a prolonged correction. Here, the goal is 108.69 and this level is the key support for the downward structure of January 8.

The main trend is the downward structure of January 8, the scale of the M30.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 108.30 Take profit: 108.45

Buy: 108.49 Take profit: 108.69

Sell: 107.96 Take profit: 107.68

Sell: 107.64 Take profit: 107.27

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For the Canadian dollar / Dollar currency pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are 1.33.95, 1.3320., 1.3271, 1.3201, 1.3150 and 1.3065. Here, we continue to monitor the downward structure of December 31 and in the range of 1.3201 - 1.3150, we expect a short-term downward movement, as well as consolidation. The potential value for the bottom is considered the level of 1.3065, after reaching which we expect a rollback to the correction.

The short-term upward movement is possible in the range of 1.3271 - 1.3320 and the breakdown of the latter value will lead to a deep correction. Here, the target is 1.3395 and this level is the key support for the downward structure.

The main trend is the downward cycle of December 31.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.3271 Take profit: 1.3320

Buy: 1.3330 Take profit: 1.3395

Sell: 1.3201 Take profit: 1.3155

Sell: 1.3145 Take profit: 1.3070

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For the Australian dollar / dollar currency pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are 0.7313, 0.7270, 0.7207, 0.7131, 0.7102 and 0.7059. Here, we are following the ascending structure of January 3. The continuation of the upward movement is expected after the breakdown of 0.7207. In this case, the target is 0.7207. The potential value for the top is considered to be the level of 0.7313, after reaching which we expect a consolidated movement, as well as a departure to a correction.

The short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 0.7131 - 0.7102 and the breakdown of the latter value will lead to a prolonged correction. Here, the goal is 0.7059 and this level is the key support for the upward structure.

The main trend is the ascending structure of January 3.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 0.7207 Take profit: 0.7270

Buy: 0.7275 Take profit: 0.7310

Sell: 0.7131 Take profit: 0.7105

Sell: 0.7100 Take profit: 0.7065

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For the Euro / Yen currency pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are 127.22, 126.70, 125.79, 125.15, 124.22, 123.74 and 123.05. Here, we continue to monitor the ascending structure of January 3. An upward movement is expected after the breakdown of 125.15. In this case, the target is 125.79 and price consolidation is near this level. The breakdown of the level of 125.80 must be accompanied by a pronounced upward movement. Here, the goal is 126.70. The potential value for the top is considered the level of 127.22, after reaching which we expect a consolidated movement, as well as a rollback to the top.

The short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 124.22 - 123.74 and the breakdown of the latter value will lead to a prolonged correction. Here, the target is 123.05 and this level is the key support for the upward structure.

The main trend is the ascending structure of January 3.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 125.15 Take profit: 125.76

Buy: 125.82 Take profit: 126.70

Sell: 124.20 Take profit: 123.78

Sell: 123.70 Take profit: 123.10

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For the Pound / Yen currency pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are 141.90, 140.50, 139.49, 137.49, 136.81 and 135.70. Here, we are following the development of the ascending structure of January 3. The continuation of the movement upward is expected after the breakdown of 139.50. In this case, the first target is 140.50 and consolidation is near this level. The potential value for the top is considered the level of 141.90, upon reaching which we expect a rollback downwards.

The short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 137.49 - 136.81 and the breakdown of the latter value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the goal is 135.70 and this level is the key support for the top.

The main trend is the ascending structure of January 3.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 139.55 Take profit: 140.50

Buy: 140.55 Take profit: 141.60

Sell: 137.45 Take profit: 136.85

Sell: 136.75 Take profit: 136.00

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