The global debt market is reeling

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At the moment, experts assess the state of the global debt market as unstable, calling this phenomenon Japanization, "flight to quality" and an attempt to adapt to the new standards proposed by the Fed. Analysts believe that in the near future, the world economy will face a fall in growth rates and slide into deflation.

The Japanization of the global economy is growing, and the debt market demonstrates this. This term implies the development of the economy according to the Japanese scenario. Note that in the Land of the Rising Sun, there has been no growth over the past twenty years. The state is constantly struggling with deflation, although the Bank of Japan uses all possible tools to stimulate price growth. The reason for this is partly the policy of the Japanese regulator. A few years ago, the Central Bank of Japan first started printing money, which in the short term proved very effective. However, this later led to negative consequences. Nevertheless, the launch of QE was decided by major players in the world market – the Fed and the ECB, and now they have to find a way out of the impasse.

Currently, the yield of indicative US Treasury securities is at a minimum, and the rates on Germany's public debt were in the red. At the same time, according to Bloomberg, century-old bonds, associated with the risk of changes in interest rates, suddenly became one of the market leaders. Surprisingly, investors ignore the inevitable uncertainty associated with attempts to bet a hundred years ahead.

Over the past three weeks, the capitalization of bonds with an investment grade rating and high-yield bonds of the world soared almost $ 1.6 trillion, reaching $ 55 trillion, Bloomberg noted. Investors have a new appetite for risk, and they expect that central banks will fuel their profits before the end of the credit cycle. Thirty-year Bundes, whose yield is only 0.54%, went up by 7.7%, ahead of the "junk" bonds and bonds of emerging markets.

Currently, corporate debt markets are also involved in the pursuit of profitability. However, in the event of a slowdown in economic growth, the balance sheets of companies will suffer, because they will not be able to service a high debt burden.

In the debt market of Europe, the situation also leaves much to be desired. The yields of ten-year German bonds fell below the yields of similar bonds in Japan. Experts consider this a wake-up call for the global economy. They believe that Europe may face a recession at a time when rates will still be negative. At the same time, the ECB can do little to help, since it does not have the tools to stimulate economic growth.

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Bitcoin analysis for March 29, 2019

We found the upside breakout of the well-defined trading range in the background, which is sign that buyers are in control. The short-term trend is bullish and the Keltner channel is going upwards, which are all signs of the strength. Resistance levels are found at $4.158 and $4.270. Support level is found at the price of $4.020.

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Trading recommendation: We are long BTC from $4.070 with target at 4.158. Protective stop is placed at $3.983.

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BITCOIN Analysis for March 29, 2019

Bitcoin managed to sustain the bullish momentum above $4,000. The level has been recently retested. The price is going on with a rally. The price is currently trading above $4,100. BTC is likely to extend its climb towards $4,250 and later towards $4,500 area in the coming days.

The price is currently being supported by the dynamic level of 20 EMA, Tenkan, Kijun, and Kumo Cloud. Such support is expected to carry the price further upward. The price formation currently is breaking above the corrective volatile range. On the other hand, breaking above $4,250 will help the price to get impulsive momentum, so the price could extend a rally towards $4,500 and later towards $5,000 in the short term as there is no obstacle which could put pressure on bullish momentum. As the price remains above $4,000, the price will acculumate the impulsive bullish pressure.

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Analysis of Gold for March 29, 2019

Gold has been trading sideways in past 24-hours but the supply is still present. We still expect more downside on the Gold.

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According to the H4 time – frame, we found rejection from the strong resistance cluster at the price of 1.300.00, which is sign that buying looks very risky and that more downside is expected. The 4h candle closed in the middle, suggesting that underlying weakness. Our advice is to watch for selling opportunities. Support is seen at the price of $1.281.00. As long as the resistance cluster (purple rectangle) at $1.300.00 is holding, we remain bearish.

Trading recommendation: We are short with small position from $1.293.00 and target at 41.281.20.

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EUR and GBP: Euro buyers are trying to take the lead. Pound falls further while waiting for the results of the vote

The good data on the German labor market was not enough for buyers of risky assets to return to the market in the first half of the day. Weak reports on the French economy led to the resumption of the downtrend.

According to the report, the unemployment rate in Germanyin March reached a new minimum this year, which happened because of the high demand in the labor market.

As noted in the Federal Employment Agency, the unemployment rate in Germany was 4.9% in March against 5% in February. The number of applications for unemployment benefits fell by 7,000 compared with February, while economists had forecast a decline of 10,000. The total number of unemployed in Germany was 2.301 million in March, whereas the previous figure was at around 2.373 million in February.

As I noted above, a weak report on the French economy affected the euro quotes. First of all, traders were worried about the report on the consumer price index, which showed a weaker growth than expected for the month of March this year in France.

According to the report, consumer prices rose by 0.8% in March compared to 1.1% per annum in February. Economists had forecast a consumer price index in France at 1.0% and 1.3%, respectively. As for the index harmonized according to EU standards, it added 1.3% in March against 1.6% per annum in February.

The sharp decline in consumer spending in France will have a negative impact on the future on already slowing economic growth rates. According to the data, expenses fell by 0.4% in February of this year and by 1.8% compared to February 2018. Expenditures were projected to increase by 0.2% compared in February and a decline by 1.3% against last year.

On the contrary, the state budget deficit of France rose to 36.9 billion euros at the end of February against 28.5 billion euros at the end of February 2018 due to more than a sharp decline in income and an increase in expenditure.

As for the technical picture of the EUR/USD pair, it remained unchanged. The further downward trend will continue with the minima in the region of 1.1200 and 1.1170. However, the main goal of sellers of risky assets is to test the support level of 1.1150. Under the scenario of the upward correction of the euro, sellers will not take long to wait in the area of major resistance at 1.1270 and 1.1295.

Great Britain

The British pound fell against the US dollar and continued its downtrend pending a vote in the British Parliament on the Brexit issue.

There was pressure on the pound in the first half of the day amid a weak report on the investments of British companies, which decreased again in the 4th quarter of 2018 for the fourth time in a row.

According to the data of the National Bureau of Statistics of the United Kingdom, capital investments of companies decreased by 0.9% compared with the previous quarter in the 4th quarter of 2018.

The weak growth of the UK economy at the end of last year also did not make traders happy.

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According to the GDP data in the 4th quarter, it grew by only 0.2% compared with the previous quarter. In comparison to the growth in the same period of the previous year, it was revised upward to 1.4% from 1.3%.

The current account deficit of the balance of payments amounted to 23.7 billion pounds in the 4th quarter against 23 billion pounds in the 3rd quarter.

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The dollar made a comeback

The US dollar in late March made the seemingly impossible possible. It grew despite an increase in the probability of weakening the Fed's monetary policy easing in 2019 to 75%, despite disappointing data on US GDP for the fourth quarter (+ 2.2%), despite progress in the negotiations between Washington and Beijing, about which Finance Minister Steven Mnuchin spoke. Neither the economic slowdown nor the "pigeon" rhetoric of FOMC representatives could stop the "bears" on EUR/USD, which managed to storm the lower limit of the medium-term consolidation range of 1.125-1.15. In early March, in a similar situation, the case ended with a false breakdown. Will the be a double "two" now?

After the Central Bank lowered its forecast for US GDP in March from 2.3% to 2.1% in March and stopped expecting a rate hike in the current year, the dollar theoretically had to come under pressure. Indeed, if the normalization cycle is complete, and the inversion of the yield curve signals a recession with a time lag of 12-18 months, it would be nice to get rid of the toxic currency. Moreover, the derivatives market, which is counting on tightening monetary policy in December, openly spoke about monetary expansion in March.

Dynamics of Fed rate forecasts

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A prolonged pause in the process of normalization or its completion with growing risks of a rate reduction led to a fall in the yield on 10-year Treasury bonds to a 16-month bottom. The attractiveness of US-issued securities is declining, which theoretically should lead to capital outflows and a weaker US dollar. In practice, before you get rid of the currency, it needs to be replaced by something in the investment portfolio.

A couple of weeks ago, the euro featured as the best option. Indeed, the end of trade wars is a positive signal for the export-oriented economy of the eurozone. Its V-shaped recovery was supposed to help the "bulls" on EUR/USD to find the bottom and go to the counterattack. Alas, disappointing statistics on the economic confidence of the eurozone, German inflation, and business activity suggest that Germany is still far from rising from its knees.

Mario Draghi and his colleagues are concerned about the reluctance of GDP to gr

ow by more than 0.2% q / q and core inflation - to go far from the level of 1%. They are scared to look at the negative effects of using negative interest rates for the banking system and are ready to use LTRO and other tools to throw a lifeline to financial institutions of the currency bloc. Rumors about the introduction of differentiated interest rates into practice, which allow commercial banks not to pay for the resources placed on the accounts of the regulator, have dealt another blow to the bulls positions on EUR / USD.

Technically for the euro buyers, nothing is lost. If they manage to cling to support at $ 1.125 and at $ 1.1185 (61.8% from the last long-term uptrend) and continue consolidation, the risks of restoring the bull trend and realizing the "Wolfe Wave" pattern will remain. And only a confident breakthrough of $ 1.118-1.1185 will allow the bears to count on the continuation of the southern campaign.

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EUR/USD: plan for the US session on March 29. Euro buyers return to the market

To open long positions on EURUSD you need:

If in the first half of the day, the buyers of the European currency failed to get above the resistance of 1.1240 against the background of diverse fundamental statistics for the eurozone countries, then the bulls were able to hold the support level of 1.1208. At the moment, it is best to look at long positions in the euro after breaking through and consolidation above the resistance of 1.1240, where you can expect growth to the maximum area of 1.1269 and 1.1294, where I recommend taking profits. In the case of a repeated wave of EUR/USD decline in the afternoon, new purchases can be considered from the same support level of 1.1208 and a rebound from the new minimum of 1.1176.

To open short positions on EURUSD you need:

Weak inflation reports in France and Germany put pressure on the euro in the first half of the day, which led to a decline in the support area of 1.1208, which I paid attention to in the morning review. At the moment, while trading is below the 1.1240 range, the pressure on the euro will continue, and the bearish target will again be at least around 1.1208, a breakthrough of which will lead to a larger EUR/USD sale to the support area of 1.1176, where I recommend taking profits. When scenarios return EUR/USD to the resistance level of 1.1240 in the second half of the day, it is best to consider short positions on a rebound from the maximum of 1.1269 and 1.1294.

Indicator signals:

Moving Averages

Trade is conducted below the 30-day and 50-medium moving, which indicates the preservation of the bearish nature of the market. However, a breakout of the slide could lead to a sharp rise in the euro.

Bollinger bands

An upward correction on the euro will be formed in case of a break of the upper border of the Bollinger Bands indicator in the 1.1240 area.

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Description of indicators

  • MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow
  • MA (moving average) 30 days - green
  • MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9
  • Bollinger Bands 20
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GBP/USD analysis for March 29, 2019

GBP/USD has been trading downwards. The price tested the level of 1.2977. Anyway, potential oversold condition is found.

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According to the M15 time – frame, we found rejection from the support 1 at the price of 1.2986, which is sign that selling looks very risky. Also, stochastic oscillator is in oversold condition, which adds more potential strength on the GBP. Resistance levels are seen at the price of 1.3090 (pivot) and at 1.3149 (RR1).

Trading recommendation: We are long GBP from 1.3022 and targets at 1.3090 and 1.3150.

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March 29, 2019 : GBP/USD Intraday technical analysis and trade recommendations.

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On January 2nd, the market initiated the depicted uptrend line around 1.2380.

This uptrend line managed to push price towards 1.3200 before the GBP/USD pair came to meet the uptrend again around 1.2775 on February 14.

Another bullish wave was demonstrated towards 1.3350 before the bearish pullback brought the pair towards the uptrend again on March 11.

A weekly bearish gap pushed the pair slightly below the trend line (almost reaching 1.2960) before the bullish breakout above short-term bearish channel was achieved on March 11.

Bullish persistence above 1.3060 allowed the GBPUSD pair to pursue the bullish momentum towards 1.3130, 1.3200 then 1.3360 where the recent bearish pullback was initiated.

Bullish persistence above 1.3250 was needed for confirmation of a bullish Flag pattern. However, significant bearish pressure was demonstrated below 1.3250 demonstrating a false bullish breakout above 1.3200 (the upper limit of the depicted bearish channel).

Hence, the short term outlook turned to become bearish towards 1.3150 - 1.3120 where the depicted uptrend line failed to provide any immediate bullish support.

Currently, the price levels of 1.3020-1.3000 (the lower limit of the depicted movement channel) is being challenged where bullish rejection is expected to be found.

Next bullish target is located around 1.3140 where the upper limit of the depicted movement channel is located.

Trade Recommendations:

Intraday traders can have a valid BUY entry around the lower limit of the movement channel (1.3000-1.3020).

SL to be located below 1.2970. TP levels to be located around 1.3100 and 1.3140

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Expert opinions diverged: What determines the EUR / USD rate now?

According to some experts, the difference in interest rates of the ECB and the Fed is no longer the decisive factor in the change in the value of the euro against the dollar.

"In order to predict the dynamics of the euro against the dollar, traders must now monitor the flow and outflow of capital in the stock market," said Mark McCormick, currency strategist at TD Securities.

McCormick said that the euro may strengthen if the outflow of funds from European stocks slows down.

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According to Bloomberg, European funds traded on US exchanges (ETFs) experienced an outflow of capital from the eurozone in the amount of $ 859 million in 2019.

The euro also suffered losses this year as it plunged by almost 2.1% against the dollar.

"The slowdown in the global economy is putting pressure on stock prices. Here, we should also add the weakness of the Chinese economy, as well as trade disputes between Washington and Beijing", said McCormick.

In early March, the Asian empire promised to adopt a wide package of incentives aimed at overcoming economic weakness. At the same time, the euro area will receive the biggest fiscal stimulus in a decade.

In addition, if the United States and the PRC ultimately conclude a trade agreement, firstly, this will weaken investors' concerns about a slowdown in global growth, and secondly, it will contribute to the restoration of such major sectors of the European economy as banking and automobiles.

"The eurozone is now in the process of stabilization. It may take two to three months of positive statistical data to change the psychology of the market. Most likely, this will happen in the third quarter", said McCormick.

Meanwhile, an analyst at Jefferies Group, Brad Bechtel, believes that the difference in interest rates between the ECB and the Fed is still not to be written off. Although at the moment, a combination of threats related to Brexit serves as a factor in determining the direction of the EUR/USD pair and common European political fears.

He expects that in the summer, the weakening of the dollar will begin to gain momentum and the euro will rise to $ 1.16 in value.

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GBP / USD plan for the US session on March 29. The pound partially recovered after the update of major support level at 1.3000

To open long positions on the GBP / USD pair, you need:

The buyers coped with the task for the first half of the day and managed to work out the divergence from the support level of 1.3000, to which I paid attention. At the moment, the goal is to break through and consolidate above the resistance of 1.3099, which will lead to a new wave of growth in the pound and update highs around 1.3162 and 1.3212, where I recommend taking profits. In the case of a downward correction in the second half of the day, it is best to return to long positions on testing the support at 1.3051 or to rebound from a minimum of 1.3000.

To open short positions on the GBP / USD pair, you need:

The bears also coped with the morning task and managed once again to test at least at the level of 1.3000. A further downward movement will depend on the results of voting in the UK Parliament, which will be held tonight. In the case of growth above the level of 1.3099, you can consider short positions on the rebound from the maximum of 1.3162 and 1.3212. The main goal of the bears is to return to the support of 1.3051, which will lead to a new sale of GBP/USD pair already with a breakdown of 1.3000 and a test of new lows of 1.2909 and 1.2855.

More in the video forecast for March 29

Indicator signals:

Moving averages

Trade is conducted below the 30- and 50-medium moving, which indicates the bearish nature of the market.

Bollinger bands

A break of the middle border of the Bollinger Bands indicator near 1.3051 may lead to a new sale of the pound.

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Description of indicators

MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow

MA (moving average) 30 days - green

MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9

Bollinger Bands 20

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP/USD. March 29. The trading system. "Regression Channels". Theresa May's last chance

4-hour timeframe

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Technical details:

The upper linear regression channel: direction - up.

The lower linear regression channel: direction - up.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - down.

CCI: -172.9326

The GBP/USD currency pair abruptly resumed the downward movement yesterday after several days of stomping in one place. Yesterday evening, there was information that today will be the third vote on the draft "deal" by Theresa May with the EU. As stated by the Speaker of the British Parliament, the only chance to postpone Brexit is the adoption of an agreement reached by Theresa May. Thus, either today the Parliament accepts the "deal" with Brussels and then Brexit will be held on May 22, or rejects it and then the UK will withdraw from the EU on April 12 according to the "hard" scenario. Today is becoming the next day X for the UK and the British pound. Whatever the decision of the parliament, it will be taken late in the evening, so the markets simply will not have time to react to it. Thus, trading on Monday can be very volatile, and the pair can open to either side with a large gap. This point should be taken into account when opening any positions today and holding them for the weekend. Also today in the UK, a report on GDP for the fourth quarter will be published. Experts predict an increase of 1.3% y / y and 0.2% q / q. Any value below forecasts will create additional pressure on the British pound.

Nearest support levels:

S1 - 1.3062

S2 - 1.3000

S3 - 1.2939

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 - 1.3123

R2 - 1.3184

R3 - 1.3245

Trading recommendations:

The pair GBP/USD sharply resumed its downward movement. Since today another vote for the "deal" on Brexit will take place in Parliament, today and on Monday the volatility can be high, and the predictability of movements is extremely low. Therefore, we once again recommend extremely cautious trading during the day without transferring deals to Monday.

In addition to the technical picture should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanations for illustrations:

The upper linear regression channel is the blue lines of the unidirectional movement.

The lower linear channel is the purple lines of the unidirectional movement.

CCI is the blue line in the indicator regression window.

The moving average (20; smoothed) is the blue line on the price chart.

Murray levels - multi-colored horizontal stripes.

Heikin Ashi is an indicator that colors bars in blue or purple.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR/USD. March 29. The trading system. "Regression Channels". Hopes of the euro only on the strength level of 1.1200

4-hour timeframe

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Technical details:

The upper linear regression channel: direction - down.

The lower linear regression channel: direction - down.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - down.

CCI: -112.7171

On Friday, March 29, the EUR/USD currency pair continues to move down as if nothing had happened. Yesterday, there were high hopes that the US GDP report for the fourth quarter would support the euro. The report was indeed weaker than the forecast values, but instead of the expected growth of the euro, we saw another fall. This concerns not only the euro, but also, for example, the pound sterling. Thus, it can be assumed that traders ignored the report on GDP because they have already outlined a long-term trading strategy, and it implies the sale of the euro. Therefore, on the last trading day of the week and months, we can see a small rollback up, but then there will definitely be attempts to continue moving down. Embarrassing, while the area of support 1.1200 - 1.1270 is still relevant that the bears failed to break with approximately seven attempts. However, this cannot continue all the time, and sooner or later it will not stand. Moreover, traders still do not see significant fundamental reasons for at least medium-term purchases of the European currency. Today, there will be no important macroeconomic publications in the eurozone, and information about changes in personal incomes and expenditures of the population will come from the States.

Nearest support levels:

S1 - 1.1200

S2 - 1.1169

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 - 1.1230

R2 - 1.1261

R3 - 1.1292

Trading recommendations:

The currency pair EUR/USD continues to move down. Thus, now it is still recommended to consider sell orders with targets at 1.1200 and 1.1169. The reversal of the Heikin Ashi indicator to the top will indicate the start of an upward correction

Buy positions are recommended to be considered no earlier than fixing the pair back above the moving average line with targets at 1.1322 and 1.1353, but at the moment, this option is unlikely.

In addition to the technical picture should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanations for illustrations:

The upper linear regression channel is the blue lines of the unidirectional movement.

The lower linear regression channel is the purple lines of the unidirectional movement.

CCI - blue line in the indicator window.

The moving average (20; smoothed) is the blue line on the price chart.

Murray levels - multi-colored horizontal stripes.

Heikin Ashi is an indicator that colors bars in blue or purple.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Brexit: The third "circle of hell" for the UK Parliament

Today, all attention will again be focused on the British pound and on the next vote, already the third in a row, under the Brexit agreement proposed by Prime Minister Theresa May. According to experts, the new agreement will differ from previous versions in that it will not include the political declaration that was previously included in the package. If the Parliament supports May's proposal, the UK will withdraw from the EU on May 22. If the vote fails, and, most likely, it will, the term for the provision of an alternative version of the agreement in the UK will be until April 12 this year.

The British pound is responding to all this news with a decline, and, most likely, the pressure will continue.

Yesterday, a number of reports were published on the American economy, which generally failed to provide the necessary support for the US dollar.

According to the US Department of Labor, the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits for the week from March 17 to 23 decreased by 5,000 and amounted to 211,000. Economists had expected that the number of applications would be 220,000. The number of secondary applications for the week from March 10 to 16 increased by 13,000 to 1,756,000.

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A weak GDP report limited the upward potential of the dollar. Not surprisingly, the US economy grew at a slower pace than expected in the 4th quarter. This happened due to lower profits of US companies.

According to the US Department of Commerce, the gross domestic product in the 4th quarter of 2018 grew by 2.2% per annum, whereas previously it was reported that GDP growth was 2.6% per annum. Economists had expected GDP growth to be 2.2%.

The number of signed contracts for the sale of housing in February decreased compared with the previous month. According to the National Association of Realtors, the index of signed contracts for the sale of housing in February fell by 1.0% compared with the previous month and amounted to 101.9. Economists had expected the index to show an increase of 0.7%. Compared to the same period of the previous year, the index fell by 4.9% in February.

Production activity in the area of responsibility of the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City in March increased. The report indicates that the composite production index in March was 10 points against 1 in February.

This week, a series of speeches by the Fed. Richard Clarida, vice chairman of the US Federal Reserve, did not miss this opportunity, saying that the Fed should pay even more attention to the risks of global economic growth. In his opinion, moderate inflationary pressure justifies a patient approach to the issue of interest rate adjustments in the future. Clarida is also concerned that the US economy has become more vulnerable to external shocks than in previous years.

As for the technical picture of the EURUSD pair, the further downward trend will slow down in the area of new lows, which are now visible in the 1.1200 and 1.1170 areas. However, the main goal of sellers of risky assets will be the 1.1150 support test. Under the scenario of the upward correction of the euro, sellers will not take long to wait in the area of major resistance 1.1270 and 1.1295.

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Day X for Britain: will the European Union lose one "star"

At the beginning of this week, the GBP/USD pair consolidated in a narrow range of 1.31-1.32. On Wednesday, it attempted to break through its upper border but then left the range and rolled back in the direction of the 1.30 mark.

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"The market is now more than ever concerned about the fact of uncertainty regarding the UK's withdrawal from the European Union. From this point of view, the weakening of the pound looks more than logical. The situation on Brexit remains at a standstill. The British Parliament clearly indicates what it does not want but it's not clear what it really wants, "said Lee Hardman, currency strategist at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ.

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Today in the House of Commons should be another vote on the draft "divorce" agreement proposed by British Prime Minister Theresa May.

It is assumed that only the conditions for leaving the country from the EU without a political declaration will be put to the vote. This formally meets the requirement of the speaker of the House of Commons, John Bercow, to the government to make a modified version of the transaction.

"It is extremely important that we do everything to approve the agreement this week. If we don't want to find ourselves in a situation, in which, we again need to ask for Brussels to grant Brexit a postponement and then also to participate in European elections," said Andrea Leadsome, leader of the House of Commons, a deputy from the Conservative Party.

"This week in the British Parliament held eight votes" against "now you need only one vote" in favor "to move on", said by the official representative of the European Parliament, Margaritis Schinas.

If the House of Commons approves the deal, the UK will leave the EU on May 22.

Meanwhile, the fact that there is no positive parliamentary decision on the deal will not necessarily be negative for the pound sterling.

On Wednesday, lawmakers rejected all eight alternative voting scenarios related to Brexit. However, two options scored the most votes. One of them is to maintain membership in the European Union, and the second is to hold a second referendum.

That is, there is an option, in which to ensure compliance with the requirement, "it is impossible to leave the EU without an agreement", the Brexit itself will have to be canceled.

If the likelihood of a repeated referendum increases, the GBP/USD pair will go upward.

Will Theresa May finally be able to carry out his agreement through parliament and will she resign after that? Perhaps, we will find out today.

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Wave analysis for EUR / USD pair on March 29. Another complication in the downward trend?

Wave counting analysis:

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On Thursday, March 28, trading of EUR/USD ended with another 25 bp loss. Thus, the assumed wave b continues its formation, taking a pronounced three-wave form. The attempt to break the Fibonacci level of 76.4% was successful, hence, the chances that the current upward trend segment remains less and less. It seems that the tool will simply complicate the downward trend. All the waves of the last months are approximately the same in size that makes all wave structures not look like classical impulse or corrective. The news background remains neutral for the pair and it was completely in favor of the euro yesterday since it turned out to be weak from US GDP but this did not help the Euro currency.

Sales targets:

1.1177 - 100.0% Fibonacci

Purchase targets:

1.1448 - 0.0% Fibonacci

General conclusions and trading recommendations:

The pair is supposedly close to completing wave b. Now, I recommend waiting for a new signal to complete the current downward wave. However, it should be recognized that a strong decrease in the instrument significantly reduces the chances of building an uptrend trend. Nevertheless, in any case, the rising wave will be built, which will most likely be commensurate with all previous waves.

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AUDJPY consolidates as both economies struggle

The Australian economy is experiencing a decline in the housing sector, while mixed employment data helped the currency to sustain its gains against EUR. Australia's jobless rate fell to its eight-year low in February, but the employment change showed significant downturn to 4.6k from the previous figure of 38.3k.

Currently, RBA is concerned with the fall in housing sector. Bank's Assistant Governor Ellis spoke about the impact it had on other sectors of the economy. However, she stated that such a natural disaster as drought also affected the country's economy. Despite these factors, the Australian economy is doing quite well. Besides, the Bank kept its Cash Rate unchanged at 1.75%.

Meanwhile, the household consumption and the income growth were quite volatile.

Today's Private Sector Credit report from Australia showed an increase by 0.3%, while it was expected to remain at 0.2%. Such positive data did help the currency to gain certain momentum. However, it was not enough for a bullish trend.

On the other hand, the Tokyo Core CPI published today stayed at 1.1% as it was expected, the unemployment rate slid to 2.3%, while experts anticipated it to remain 2.5%, the preliminary industrial production data met the expectations of 1.4% from the previous negative value of -3.4%. The retail sales decreased to 0.4% from the previous value of 0.6%, while it was anticipated to advance to 0.9%.

In the meantime, export and import challenges lead to some weakening of Japan's economy, while the Bank of Japan is trying to reach its 2% inflation target. Besides, Japan has to rely on imports for its energy requirements, the core consumer price index is affected as it depends on the oil price. The overall exports of Japan were also influenced by the US-China trade war.

As of the current scenario, volatility of this pair is expected to increase. Comparing the overall economic situations in the countries, JPY seems to have a better support from the statistical data and is likely to firm in the coming days.

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Overview of the foreign exchange market on 03/29/2019

Apparently, investors are so worried about what might happen in the House of Commons today that they don't see what is happening with the American economy; no matter how late the epiphany was too painful. After all, the final data on the GDP of the United States for the fourth quarter turned out to be much worse, not only from preliminary estimates but also from the most pessimistic forecasts. Quarterly economic growth slowed from 3.4% to 2.2%, despite the fact that they expected a slowdown to 2.4%, and a preliminary assessment showed a slowdown to 2.6%. Although looking at the annual data instead of the quarterly data, the rate of economic growth remained at the level of 3.0%. Nevertheless, the quarterly growth rate has already slowed down two quarters in a row and the sustained annual rate was explained by the accumulated result of the second quarter of 2018, which means soon we will see a slowdown and annual growth rates. It cannot be said that the data on the number of applications for unemployment benefits pleased investors since it increased by 8 thousand. At the same time, if the number of initial applications decreased by 5 thousand, the number of repeated ones increased by 13 thousand but repeated applications are a more important indicator, as reflect the duration of unemployment. Hence, frankly, American statistics clearly demonstrate that "America has already become great," and is so tired of it that it is time to breathe. But more precisely, repeated applications are a more important indicator, as they reflect the duration of unemployment. Thus, American statistics clearly demonstrate that "America has already become great" and they are so tired of it that it is time to breathe.

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Today, no one will look at any macroeconomic data, especially since today data is only available for the UK. All attention will be focused only on voting in the House of Commons, which will mark the finish line in the whole epic with Brexit. Today is the last day when London can decide how future events will develop. Europe has already announced that there will be no more negotiations on this issue and the UK needs to decide for itself what it wants. She wants something a lot but you have to be contented with what you have despite everything. Hence, if the House of Commons gets rejected for the third time today regarding the agreement (which does not suit it on almost all points) then the United Kingdom must leave the European Union with deals on April 12 without any "preliminary testing" in the form of a transitional period. If the people's elects of her majesty's subjects still accept the subjugation agreement, then the exit will take place on May 22. Moreover, the separation is not so hard with the transitional period.

But if you look at the essence of the problem, the agreement without it for the economy of the United Kingdom is the same since the deal does not have a single word about such an interesting topic. Just promises and declarations of intent instead. But that won't worry anyone today. Everyone is concerned about only one question: is it a "hard" or "soft" option of divorce?

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The voting results will have a strong impact on the single European currency, which can not stand aside from such epochal events. If the House of Commons votes in favor of the agreement, then general optimism will push the single European currency upward and even the area of 1.1275 to 1.1300 is more likely to be an intermediate stop. If the parliamentarians reject the proposed agreement for the third time, then it is worth waiting for the decline to 1.1150.

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As mentioned above, the GDP data from the UK for the fourth quarter was released, which should confirm the fact of a slowdown in economic growth from 1.6% to 1.3%. But no one will pay attention to this. Only the voting results in the House of Commons interest market participants. And if the parliamentarians finally agree with Theresa May's position and accept the agreement, the pound will rapidly grow to 1.3200 and more. Otherwise, a reduction to 1.2950 and 1.2975 does not seem so impossible.

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Analysis of EUR/USD divergence for March 29. The pair is ready to roll back up

4h

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As seen on the 4-hour chart, the EUR/USD pair continues the process of falling in the direction of the retracement level of 0.0% (1.1177). The bullish divergence in the CCI indicator allows traders to expect the pair to reverse in favor of the euro currency and some growth in the direction of the retracement level of 23.6% (1.1269). Fixing the pair's rate above the Fibo level of 23.6% will increase the likelihood of continued growth of quotations in the direction of the next retracement level of 38.2% (1.1328).

The Fibo grid is based on the grounds of the extremums from January 10, 2019, and March 7, 2019.

Daily

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As seen on the 24-hour chart, the pair settled below the Fibo level of 127.2% (1.1285). However, on the 4-hour chart, bullish divergence allows some growth to be expected. Thus, the fall in quotations can be continued in the direction of the retracement level of 161.8% (1.0941) after working off or canceling the bullish divergence. The closing of quotations on March 29 above the Fibo level of 127.2% will work in favor of the EU currency and the start of growth in the direction of the retracement level of 100.0% (1.1553).

The Fibo grid is built on the basis of extremums from November 7, 2017, and February 16, 2018.

Trading recommendations:

Buy deals on EUR/USD pair can be opened with the target at 1.1269 and a stop-loss order under the current bullish divergence low.

Sell deals on EUR/USD pair can be opened with the target at 1.1177 if the pair completes the last low divergence.

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Analysis of GBP/USD divergence for March 29. The pound is also ready to roll back due to bullish divergence

4h

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As seen on the 4-hour chart, the GBP/USD pair resumed the process of falling and closed under the retracement level of 76.4% (1.3094). However, the formation of a bullish divergence in the CCI indicator allows traders to expect a reversal in favor of the pound sterling and some growth of quotations. The close of the pair above the Fibo level of 76.4% will similarly work in favor of the currency of England and the beginning of growth in the direction of the retracement level of 100.0% (1.3300). The passage of the pair of low divergence will increase the chances of a further fall in the direction of the Fibo level of 61.8% (1.2969).

The Fibo grid is built on extremes of September 20, 2018, and January 3, 2019.

1h

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As seen on the hourly chart, the pair made a strong fall, but then followed a reversal in favor of the British pound and a close above the retracement level of 76.4% (1.3061). As a result, on March 29, the growth of the pair may be continued in the direction of the next retracement level of 61.8% (1.3121). There is no indicator of the emerging divergences today. The closing of quotations below the Fibo level of 76.4% will again work in favor of the American currency and the resumption of the fall in the direction of the retracement level of 100.0% (1.2961).

The Fibo grid is built on extremes of March 11, 2019, and March 13, 2019.

Trading advice:

Buy deals on GBP/USD pair can be opened with a target at 1.3121 and a stop-loss order below the level of 76.4%, as the pair completed closing above the level of 1.3061 (hourly chart).

Sell deals on GBP/USD pair can be opened with the target at 1.2961 and a stop-loss order above the level of 76.4% if the pair closes below the retracement level of 1.3061 (hourly chart).

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Trading Plan 03/29/2019

The big picture: The market is waiting for the decision of Britain on Brexit.

On Friday evening, there will be another decisive vote on Brexit in the British Parliament.

This is at least the third decisive vote but at least some should come to an end.

Judging by the behavior of the market, the decision on Brexit can induce a strong move on both the pound and euro.

In addition, an important inflation report for February will be released in the United States at 12.30 London time.

We are ready to sell the euro at a breakout of 1.1175.

We are ready to buy the euro at a breakout of 1.1335.

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EUR/USD: technical review 29.03.2019

Current dynamic

On the 4-hour chart, EURUSD pair is showing a negative dynamic. Now the pair is trying to consolidate below the level of 1.1230 (Murray [0/8]), which is the key level for the sellers in the short-term period. Assuming the pair's ability to cross down 1.1213 mark (3-week low), the levels of 1.1200 (Murray [-1/8])-1.1169 (Murray [-2/8]) can be targeted if holding short positions. There is a high chance of an upward rebound around the area of 1.1169 level, while its breakdown would allow the price fall to the level of 1.1118. Alternatively, pullback above 1.1261 level which coincided with the middle line of Bollinger Bands, could lead EUR/USD to the levels of 1.1291 (Murray [2/8])-1.1322 (Murray [3/8]).

Technical indicators reflect the maintenance of the downward potential, but the upward correction is possible in the short term. Bollinger Bands are pointed downwards. Stochastic lines are pointed upwards. MACD histogram is in the negative zone keeping a signal for the opening of sell positions.

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Support and resistance:

Support levels: 1.1213, 1.1200, 1.1169, 1.1118.

Resistance levels: 1.1261, 1.1291, 1.1322, 1.1352.

Trading scenarios:

Short positions can be opened below the level of 1.1200 with the target at around 1.1169-1.1118 and stop-loss 1.1226.

Long positions can be opened above the level of 1.1261 with the target at around 1.1291-1.1322 and stop-loss 1.1240.

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Fundamental analysis of NZD/USD for March 29, 2019

USD managed to gain impulsive momentum against NZD recently. The NZD/USD pair is trading inside the resistance area of 0.6900-50. Summarizing the policy update of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, the board kept the official cash rate steady and expressed the dovish rhetoric. Following the policy statement, NZD lost ground. Despite worse-than-expected GDP report, USD managed to sustain the momentum over NZD.

Earlier in March, USD lost favor with investors due to Fed's cautious approach to monetary policy. Recently, several Fed's officials have made comments on interest rates. They share the common viewpoint that the US Federal Reserve is not going to raise interest rate this year and even by 2020. Moerover, analysts assume the scenario of even a rate cut next year. Last week the Fed kept the interest rate unchanged at 2.50%. Earlier in the year, the central bank considered at least 1 rate hikes, but the agenda was revised to no rate hikes in 2019. Such a soft change in Fed's tone took the shine off USD. The regulator explains the decision by a global economic slowdown and political uncertainties like BREXIT and the US - China trade war. On the whole, the Fed confirmed its intention to adopt a patient approach to monetary tightening in the long run.

According to Fed's policymakers, the US economy is still on a sound footing. The likelihood of recession in 2019 and 2020 is slim. The US economic growth is easing to more sustainable long-term levels. The US - China trade war is going to affect the US economy. Thus, investors pin hopes on a successful trade deal between the two largest global economies.

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Yesterday the US Commerce Department posted revised GDP report. The US economy eased a pace of growth to 2.2% in Q4 2018 from 2.6% in the previous quarter, undershooting the forecast for a 2.4% increase. The downbeat figure undermined USD momentum over NZD but did not lead to any strong counter-move. Today US Personal Spending report is going to be published which is expected to increase to 0.3% from the previous value of -0.5% and Personal Income is also expected to increase to 0.3% from the previous value of -0.1%. Moreover, today FOMC member Quarles is going to speak about future monetary policy decision. His speech will hardly make an impact on USD gains.

Meanwhile, USD is expected to sustain momentum over NZD, though the pair is set to trade with corrections and volatility. Though NZD is the weaker currency in the pair, NZD could assert strength versus USD for a while.

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Technical analysis of USD/CAD for March 29, 2019

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Overview: The USD/CAD pair continues to move upwards from the level of 1.3371. Yesterday, the pair rose from the level of 1.3371 (the level of 1.3371 coincides with a ratio of 38.2% Fibonacci retracement) to a top around 1.3401. Today, the first support level is seen at 1.3371 followed by 1.3322, while daily resistance 1 is seen at 1.3445. According to the previous events, the USD/CAD pair is still moving between the levels of 1.3371 and 1.3445; for that we expect a range of 74 pips (1.3445 - 1.3371). On the one-hour chart, immediate resistance is seen at 1.3445, which coincides withthe double top. Currently, the price is moving in a bullish channel. This is confirmed by the RSI indicator signaling that we are still in a bullish trending market. The price is still above the moving average (100), Therefore, if the trend is able to break out through the first resistance level of 1.3445, we should see the pair climbing towards the daily resistance at 1.3504 to test it. It would also be wise to consider where to place stop loss; this should be set below the second support of 1.3322.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of USD/CHF for March 29, 2019

Overview:

The USD/CHF pair continues moving in a bullish trend from the support levels of 0.9895 and 0.9948. Currently, the price is in an upward channel. This is confirmed by the RSI indicator signaling that the pair is still in a bullish trend. As the price is still above the moving average (100), immediate support is seen at 0.9948 coinciding with a golden ratio (23.6% of Fibonacci).

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Consequently, the first support is set at the level of 0.9948. So, the market is likely to show signs of a bullish trend around 0.9948. In other words, buy orders are recommended above the golden ratio (0.9948) with the first target at the level of 0.9983. Furthermore, if the trend is able to breakout through the first resistance level of 0.9983, we should see the pair climbing towards the double top (1.0036) to test it. It would also be wise to consider where to place a stop loss; this should be set below the second support of 0.9895.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of GBP/USD for March 29, 2019

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Overview:

Weekly Pivot: 1.3221.

The GBP/USD broken resistance at 1.3221 which acts as support this this week. The pair is moving between the levels of 1.3221 and 1.3382. As the trend is still above the 100 EMA, a bullish outlook remains the same as long as the 100 EMA is headed to the upside. Consequently, the level of 1.3221 remains a key resistance zone. Therefore, there is a possibility that the GBP/USD pair will move upwards above 1.3221, which coincides with a ratio 61.8% of Fibonacci retracement. The falling structure does not look corrective. In order to indicate a bearish opportunity above 1.3221, buy above this level with the first target at 1.3382. Moreover, if the pair succeeds to pass through 1.3382, it will move upwards continuing the bullish trend development to 1.3487 in order to test the daily resistance 2. On the other hand, if a breakout happens at 1.3123, this scenario may be invalidated.

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Current situation in Brexit: confusion and vacillation

Yesterday, the pound against the dollar returned to the base of the 30th figure, responding to the continuing uncertainty about the prospects for Brexit. The situation is becoming more complex and political contradictions are growing, despite the general desire of London to make a deal with Brussels.

The British parliament made it a rule to reject possible scenarios, however, it does not voice any constructive counter-proposals. The latest events have disoriented traders, especially against the background of general trends in the foreign exchange market as the key macro indicators of the leading countries of the world are slowing down and the rhetoric of the Central Banks has noticeably softened. Political uncertainty only worsens the already difficult fundamental picture of the GBP/USD pair.

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At the moment, the "operational situation" is as follows: the speaker of the House of Commons of the British Parliament, John Bercow, agreed to hold the third vote on an agreement on the conditions for Britain's exit from the EU today after long negotiations; Although, he refused to do so previously, citing the provisions of the convention, which is more than four hundred years old. According to these rules, parliamentarians cannot re-examine the same question if its essence has not been changed in any way. The deputies found a way out as they proposed to exclude from the package a political declaration agreed with Europe, in which the parties indicate their future relationship. In other words, the question that is relevant "here and now" given that the deal on the country's withdrawal from the Alliance should be put to the vote in order to formally move the deadline for leaving the EU until May 22.

On the one hand, this is very positive news, which in theory was supposed to support the British currency. Yet, the pound reacted rather phlegmatically, rising only 30-40 points this morning. Such a reaction is fully justified since the fate of the deal is still in limbo as is the fact of today's vote.

Late yesterday evening, unofficial information appeared that May would not make a deal for the third vote, despite the consent of the Speaker of the House of Commons. On Friday, approximately at 17:00 London time, only debates on this issue will be held in Parliament, and, possibly, a vote on the draft deal without a political declaration. This information is based on the news story of one of the British TV channels but unofficial. Indirectly, this scenario also confirms the influential American news agency. According to their information, Theresa May does not see the necessary support in parliament, so there will not be a "meaningful vote" today.

Meanwhile, the leader of the lower house of the British parliament, Andrea Leeds, said yesterday that the deputies had only one way to leave the country in a civilized way from the EU until May 22 by the end of March 29 to vote for the government-proposed deal.

Thus, as of yesterday evening, May was not ready to submit a draft agreement to parliament. Moreover, representatives of the unionist party refused to vote for the proposed option, reducing the likelihood of its approval to zero but without the votes of which, the conservatives do not have a majority in the House of Commons. However, the political situation in London is changing so rapidly that the prime minister could enlist over the past night the support of the necessary number of deputies. This is unlikely, but it cannot be ruled out. Therefore, it can still bring surprises today.

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In other words, the pound continues to be under the pressure of uncertainty, especially since the market talked about the likelihood of "hard" Brexit once again. But in my opinion, such a scenario is unlikely to come true. Let me remind you that literally the day before yesterday the British parliament rejected the idea of a second referendum and the idea of withdrawing the notice of intention to leave the European Union was not put to a vote at all.

If the deputies do not come to a common denominator in the near future, then London will have to ask for a more substantial temporary delay for at least a year or two. Consequently, Britain will take part in the elections to the European Parliament and will participate in the formation of the budget but negotiations on the deal may have to start over again, especially if May resigns and/or early parliamentary elections take place in the country.

In general, a long delay will have a positive effect on the British currency in view of at least some stability, albeit of a temporary nature. But today we cannot exclude other options, both extremely positive for the pound (approval of the transaction) and extremely negative (the threat of chaotic Brexit). The results of today will allow us to understand which scenario is most likely.

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Trading recommendations for the GBPUSD currency pair - prospects for further movement

For the last trading day, the currency pair British pound/US dollar showed a high volatility of 163 points. As a result, we have a full breakdown of the previously formed cluster. From the point of view of technical analysis, we see that the range accumulation of 1.3170 / 1.3220 has declined and the recent rollback has literally gave strength to the sellers, regrouping trading positions and drawing as a result a pulsing speed to 1.3034. Meanwhile, information and the news background continues to develop into Brexit's history. In fact, yesterday, there were no rumors, statements or other factors that could put pressure on the British currency. However, judging by the schedule and a sharp decline, speculators and investors are preparing for the sad events, and this is a hard way out. Today, March 29, the very day where parliament must decide to withdraw from the EU without a deal or accept the agreement. To say what will be the result is extremely difficult, or rather, not possible. The only thing that will surely be is high volatility, which will surely interest speculators.

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In terms of the economic calendar, there are data on UK GDP, where there is a slowdown in economic growth from 1.6% to 1.3%. Yet, all attention is paid exclusively to voting in the British Parliament, which is scheduled for 16:30 Moscow time today.

The upcoming trading week begins immediately with the new month, and the economic calendar is full with various statistics. The most interesting events are displayed below. At the same time, we do not forget about the long-playing Brexit, where, most likely, the information background will continue to delight the speculators.

Monday

United Kingdom 11:30 Moscow time. - Manufacturing Business Index (PMI) (Mar): Prev. 52.0 ---> Forecast 52.0

United States 15:30 MSK - Basic Retail Sales Index (MoM) (Feb): Prev. 0.9% ---> Forecast 0.3%

United States 15:30 MSK - Retail Sales (MoM) (Feb): Prev. 0.2% ---> Forecast 0.3%

United States 17:00 MSK - Manufacturing PMI from ISM (Mar): Prev. 54.2 ---> Forecast 54.5

Tuesday

United Kingdom 11:30 Moscow time. - Index of business activity in the construction sector (Mar)

United States 15:30 MSK - Basic orders for durable goods (m / m) (Feb): Prev. -0.1% ---> Forecast 0.2%

Wednesday

United Kingdom 12:30 MSK - The index of business activity in the services sector (Mar)

United States 15:15 MSK - Change in the number of employed in the non-farm sector from ADP (Mar): Prev. 183K ---> Forecast 165K

United States 17:00 MSK - Non-Manufacturing PMI from ISM (Mar): Prev. 59.7 ---> Forecast 58.5

Friday

United States 15:30 MSK - Change in the number of people employed in the non-agricultural sector (Mar.): Prev. 20K ---> Forecast 175K

United States 17:00 MSK - Unemployment (mar): Prev. 3.8% ---> Forecast 3.8%

These are preliminary and subject to change.

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Further development

Analyzing the current trading chart, we see that after the rally, the quotation reached the value of 1.3034, and this, after all, the limit of the range level is 1.3000 ** (1.3000 / 1.3050), where the quotation felt support and slowed down. It is likely to assume that the quotation will closely approach the level of 1.3000, but then we will see later, depending on the decision of the British Parliament. If the agreement is encouraged, we will move upward in the direction of 1.3300, and possibly even higher. If Britain leaves the EU without a deal, we will go down, forgetting that below us is the level of 1.3000. While on the emotional and fears, we will head down. In turn, investors strongly recommend taking a waiting position, since there can be nowhere to jump. Speculators are in anticipation of the rally.

Indicator Analysis

Analyzing the different sectors of timeframes (TF), we see that there is a steady downward interest on the general background of the market in the short, intraday and medium term prospects. It should be understood that with a strong information background indicators can simply jump arbitrarily.

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Weekly volatility / Measurement of volatility: Month; Quarter; Year

Measurement of volatility reflects the average daily fluctuation, with the calculation for the Month / Quarter / Year.

(March 29 was based on the the time of publication of the article)

The current time volatility is 74 points with almost 100% probability. Today, we are waiting for the so-called mega-volatility due to the information background.

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Key levels

Zones of resistance: 1.3220 *; 1,3300 **; 1.3440; 1.3580 *; 1.3700

Support areas: 1.3000 ** (1.3000 / 1.3050); 1.2920 *; 1.2770 (1.2720 / 1.2770) **; 1.2620; 1.2500 *; 1.2350 **.

* Periodic level

** Range Level

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Indicator analysis. Daily review March 29, 2019 for the pair GBP / USD

Trend analysis (Fig. 1).

On Friday, there is a high probability of an upward movement after the repulse from the line of support of the ascending channel. The first upper target 1.3093 is the pullback level of 23.6% (yellow dotted line).

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Fig. 1 (daily schedule).

Comprehensive analysis:

- indicator analysis - up;

- Fibonacci levels - up;

- volumes - up;

- candlestick analysis - up;

- trend analysis - up;

- Bollinger lines - down;

- weekly schedule - up.

General conclusion:

On Friday, there is a high probability of an upward movement after the repulse from the line of support of the ascending channel. The first upper target 1.3093 is the pullback level of 23.6% (yellow dotted line).

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Burning Forecast 03/30/2019

On Friday, the market is waiting for the British Parliament's new attempt to take at least some kind of decision on Brexit - the vote will take place in the evening after 7:00

In addition, at 11:30 London time, there will be new data on inflation in the US - this can also stir the market.

We are waiting for a break in the euro's long range and the beginning of a trend.

We are ready to sell the euro from 1.1175

We are ready to buy the euro from 1.1335

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Indicator analysis. Daily review March 29, 2019 for the pair EUR / USD

Trend analysis (Fig. 1).

On Friday, the price may start moving up. The first upper target of 1.1249 is the pullback level of 14.6% (yellow dotted line).

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Fig. 1 (daily schedule).

Comprehensive analysis:

- indicator analysis - up;

- Fibonacci levels - up;

- volumes - up;

- candlestick analysis - down;

- trend analysis - up;

- Bollinger lines - down;

- weekly schedule - up.

General conclusion:

On Friday, the price may start moving up. The first upper target of 1.1249 is the pullback level of 14.6% (yellow dotted line). Most likely, this line will be broken up.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis for EURUSD for March 29, 2019

EURUSD continues to trade just above 1.12 while we see some short-term reversal signs as price is trying to break out and above the short-term bearish channel. Trend remains bearish both in the short and medium-term.

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Red line - major resistance trend line

Green line - support

Blue lines - short-term bearish channel

EURUSD shows signs of a reversal. No confirmation yet. Short-term resistance is at 1.1260 and as long as we remain below it, short-term trend remains bearish. Medium-term trend remains bearish as long as we trade below 1.14 and the red resistance trend line. Downside target as long as we remain in bearish trend is at 1.1140. EURUSD is trading around the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of the entire leg up from 1.1175 to 1.1448. This might be the last line of defense for bulls before we see below 1.12 again.

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Technical analysis for Gold for March 29, 2019

Gold price has made a sharp decline yesterday below $1,300. We warned bulls that by breaking below $1,310 and the fact that the short-term support trend line were broken, have given us enough bearish signals to expect a move lower towards $1,290-$1,300. Major support is now being tested.

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Blue rectangle - resistance area

Green rectangle- major support area

Blue line - short-term support trend line (broken)

Red line - major support trend line

Gold price is now challenging the important support area below $1,290 as low as $1,280. Bulls need to react fast and push price above $1,300 again. Inability from bulls to recapture the $1,300 level will most probably lead to a break of $1,280 and a push lower towards $1,260-50 area. Gold short-term trend remains bearish after breaking below the blue trend line and $1,310. Breaking below $1,280 will put the medium-term bullish trend in danger of changing to bearish.

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Bitcoin Elliott Wave analysis for 29/03/2019

Technical market overview:

The BTC/USD pair has again attempted to move up and break through the technical resistance zone located between the levels o f$4,076 - $4, 104, but so far failed to do so. Nevertheless, the bulls are still trying despite the last candle signal that looks like a Shooting Star. If they manage to break out higher, then the next immediate target is sth top for the wave (x) at the level of $4,122.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - $4,204

WR2 - $4,154

WR1 - $4,072

Weekly Pivot - $4,017

WS1 - $3,925

WS2 - $3,867

WS3 - $3,781

Trading recommendations:

There is another good trading setup for bears: opening sell orders in the area of $4,077 - $4,104 with a protective stop loss just above the level of $4,122. The take profit level will remain open for now, but the first one would be seen at the level of $3,967.

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Ethereum Elliott Wave analysis for 29/03/2019

Technical market overview:

The ETH/USD pair has reversed down as anticipated from the level of 138.22. The outlook is still bearish as there is uncompleted wave (c) to the downside, so the market is expected to return to the down cycle as soon as possible. The momentum is now decreasing and the market conditions are now overbought, so at least short-term pull-back is expected towards the level of 132.20.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 140.08

WR2 - 144.31

WR1 - 138.13

Weekly Pivot - 134.32

WS1 - 128.34

WS2 - 124.63

WS3 - 118.55

Trading recommendations:

The market is still unfolding the wave (c) to the downside, but the second target at 127.85 has not been hit yet. Nevertheless, it might be a good opportunity to join the bears and open a sell position below the level of 136.54. The targets for the bears are unchanged.

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Technical analysis of GBP/USD for 29/03/2019

Technical market overview:

As anticipated, the price of the GBP/USD pair is has reversed and now is trading back below the technical resistance at the level of 1.3157. The momentum is weak and negative, so this is why the continuation of the down move is anticipated. The next target for bears is seen at the level of 1.3012 - 1.2996 support zone.

Weekly Pivot Ponts:

WR3 - 1.3650

WR2 - 1.3473

WR1 - 1.3340

Weekly Pivot - 1.3164

WS1 - 1.3039

WS2 - 1.2867

WS3 - 1.2742

Trading recommendations:

The market is still under the technical resistance, so the bias for the daytraders remains bearish and only sell orders should be opened and those orders that are opened already should move the stop loss just above the level of 1.3157. The target would be the other side of the horizontal trading range, at 1.3012.

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Control zones AUDUSD 03/29/19

In case of a downward movement, it is necessary to focus on finding a pattern for selling. The current resistance is NKZ 1/4 0.7102-0.7098. Yesterday, the high was slightly located above this zone. This range must be used to enter a short position when the first signs of the offer appear.

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The target of a downward movement is the weekly KZ of 0.7032-0.7019. Until it is reached, the probability of updating the daily and weekly lows will be 70%.

For the formation of an alternative model, a breakdown and consolidation above the level of 0.7102 will be required at today's US session. This will entail the formation of a deeper correctional model, the goal of which will be the NKZ 1/2 0.7132-0.7139, where you can get the most favorable prices for selling the current downward impulse. The probability of implementing this model is close to 50%, which makes it a support.

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Daily KZ - daily control zone. The zone formed by important data from the futures market, which change several times a year.

Weekly KZ - weekly control zone. The zone formed by the important marks of the futures market, which change several times a year.

Monthly KZ - monthly control zone. The zone, which is a reflection of the average volatility over the past year.

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for 29/03/2019

Technical market overview:

The EUR/USD pair has made another lower low at the level of 1.1214 as anticipated. The technical support at the level of 1.1220 was hit as well and the trendline has not been violated yet. It all indicates the bears have control over the market despite the oversold conditions at the H4 time frame. The momentum is still weak and negative. Moreover, there is no price or candlestick reversal pattern present, so the price might keep going down for some more time. The next target is seen at the level of 1.1176.

Weekly Pivot Ponts:

WR3 - 1.1551

WR2 - 1.1500

WR1 - 1.1377

Weekly Pivot - 1.1325

WS1 - 1.1198

WS2 - 1.1148

WS3 - 1.1029

Trading recommendations:

The second target for bears for this week at 1.1220 has been hit, but the move down might be still continued due to the weak and negative momentum. If it is so, then the next target is seen at the level of 1.1176. All the sell orders should be closed at one of these levels.

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The bell rings in Britain

Today, the market's attention will be drawn to an important event that can have a significant impact not only on the British currency rate and the local financial market, but also on the general mood of market players.

Today, probably, the last parliamentary vote on Brexit is expected. This will make the final point on this issue. After this vote, it will become clear what the prospect will be of leaving the UK from the EU. Will it be "tough" or local parliamentarians will go according to the conditions of Prime Minister T. May, or will the possibility of a new referendum be discussed at high level?

Despite the fact that the United Kingdom has bargained for itself the opportunity to discuss this topic for several months, the main issue should actually be resolved today. So, amid these events, can you expect a pound sterling?

In our opinion, only the version of the new referendum can support the British currency exchange rate, as it will return the situation that preceded the Brexit vote in the summer of 2016. However, it won't be simple. Britain will not return to the state of relations that existed with the European Union before the referendum. Simply put, it is impossible to enter the same river. But against this background, the British currency exchange rate may receive support and even try to grow in the future to the values that he had in pairs with major currencies before the referendum. Here, the main supporting factor could be growth in expectations of rising interest rates by the Bank of England on the wave of the risk of rising inflation, which, admittedly, is below the target level of 2.0%, since it fell to 1.9% by the end of last year.

With regard to the dynamics of sterling in the short term, we can assume that it will remain in the stage of high volatility and will sharply grow and fall under the pressure of both positive and negative news for it. But at the same time, until the final decision on Brexit, most likely, it will remain in the "side" in tandem with the US dollar, which is the characteristic of the entire currency market at present.

Forecast of the day:

EURUSD is trading above 1.1215. Today, it can grow locally as well as fall against the background of the vote on Brexit in Britain. A breakthrough at the price of 1.1245 may lead to a local increase to 1.1285. At the same time, a decline below 1.1215 will cause the price to fall to 1.1175.

The pair GBPUSD found support at 1.3040. Positive news from the British Parliament could lead to a local growth of the pair to 1.3220. Negative - to the resumption of its fall to 1.2955.

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