For the last trading day, the currency pair British pound/US dollar showed a high volatility of 163 points. As a result, we have a full breakdown of the previously formed cluster. From the point of view of technical analysis, we see that the range accumulation of 1.3170 / 1.3220 has declined and the recent rollback has literally gave strength to the sellers, regrouping trading positions and drawing as a result a pulsing speed to 1.3034. Meanwhile, information and the news background continues to develop into Brexit's history. In fact, yesterday, there were no rumors, statements or other factors that could put pressure on the British currency. However, judging by the schedule and a sharp decline, speculators and investors are preparing for the sad events, and this is a hard way out. Today, March 29, the very day where parliament must decide to withdraw from the EU without a deal or accept the agreement. To say what will be the result is extremely difficult, or rather, not possible. The only thing that will surely be is high volatility, which will surely interest speculators.
In terms of the economic calendar, there are data on UK GDP, where there is a slowdown in economic growth from 1.6% to 1.3%. Yet, all attention is paid exclusively to voting in the British Parliament, which is scheduled for 16:30 Moscow time today.
The upcoming trading week begins immediately with the new month, and the economic calendar is full with various statistics. The most interesting events are displayed below. At the same time, we do not forget about the long-playing Brexit, where, most likely, the information background will continue to delight the speculators.
Monday
United Kingdom 11:30 Moscow time. - Manufacturing Business Index (PMI) (Mar): Prev. 52.0 ---> Forecast 52.0
United States 15:30 MSK - Basic Retail Sales Index (MoM) (Feb): Prev. 0.9% ---> Forecast 0.3%
United States 15:30 MSK - Retail Sales (MoM) (Feb): Prev. 0.2% ---> Forecast 0.3%
United States 17:00 MSK - Manufacturing PMI from ISM (Mar): Prev. 54.2 ---> Forecast 54.5
Tuesday
United Kingdom 11:30 Moscow time. - Index of business activity in the construction sector (Mar)
United States 15:30 MSK - Basic orders for durable goods (m / m) (Feb): Prev. -0.1% ---> Forecast 0.2%
Wednesday
United Kingdom 12:30 MSK - The index of business activity in the services sector (Mar)
United States 15:15 MSK - Change in the number of employed in the non-farm sector from ADP (Mar): Prev. 183K ---> Forecast 165K
United States 17:00 MSK - Non-Manufacturing PMI from ISM (Mar): Prev. 59.7 ---> Forecast 58.5
Friday
United States 15:30 MSK - Change in the number of people employed in the non-agricultural sector (Mar.): Prev. 20K ---> Forecast 175K
United States 17:00 MSK - Unemployment (mar): Prev. 3.8% ---> Forecast 3.8%
These are preliminary and subject to change.
Further development
Analyzing the current trading chart, we see that after the rally, the quotation reached the value of 1.3034, and this, after all, the limit of the range level is 1.3000 ** (1.3000 / 1.3050), where the quotation felt support and slowed down. It is likely to assume that the quotation will closely approach the level of 1.3000, but then we will see later, depending on the decision of the British Parliament. If the agreement is encouraged, we will move upward in the direction of 1.3300, and possibly even higher. If Britain leaves the EU without a deal, we will go down, forgetting that below us is the level of 1.3000. While on the emotional and fears, we will head down. In turn, investors strongly recommend taking a waiting position, since there can be nowhere to jump. Speculators are in anticipation of the rally.
Indicator Analysis
Analyzing the different sectors of timeframes (TF), we see that there is a steady downward interest on the general background of the market in the short, intraday and medium term prospects. It should be understood that with a strong information background indicators can simply jump arbitrarily.
Weekly volatility / Measurement of volatility: Month; Quarter; Year
Measurement of volatility reflects the average daily fluctuation, with the calculation for the Month / Quarter / Year.
(March 29 was based on the the time of publication of the article)
The current time volatility is 74 points with almost 100% probability. Today, we are waiting for the so-called mega-volatility due to the information background.
Key levels
Zones of resistance: 1.3220 *; 1,3300 **; 1.3440; 1.3580 *; 1.3700
Support areas: 1.3000 ** (1.3000 / 1.3050); 1.2920 *; 1.2770 (1.2720 / 1.2770) **; 1.2620; 1.2500 *; 1.2350 **.
* Periodic level
** Range Level
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