Control zones for USD / CAD pair on 08/27/19

Last week, an accumulation zone was forming. Today, there is a way out of this zone. If consolidation occurs, the next goal of the reduction will be the weekly control zone of 1.3169-1.3152. The upward movement should be considered for the occurrence of absorption pattern in the direction of strengthening the Canadian dollar.

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Working in the downward direction may become the main one at the end of the current month and the beginning of the next. There is potential weekly movement of another 66 points, which gives an opportunity for sales after the formation of the correction.

An alternative model will be developed if the closure of today's American session occurs above the 1/2 WCZ. The false breakout pattern of yesterday's low will be a strong signal for the pair to grow.

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Daily CZ - daily control zone. The area formed by important data from the futures market, which changes several times a year.

Weekly CZ - weekly control zone. The area formed by marks from the important futures market, which changes several times a year.

Monthly CZ - monthly control zone. The area is a reflection of the average volatility over the past year.

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Technical analysis of ETH/USD for 27/08/2019:

Crypto Industry News:

The Swiss Financial Market Surveillance Authority (FINMA) has issued guidelines on regulatory requirements for Blockchain payments under FINMA supervision.

The new guidelines for virtual asset service providers, published on August 26, apply to Blockchain service providers, including exchanges, portfolio providers and trading platforms.

In the preface to the FINMA guidelines, it observes compliance with the digital assets regulatory framework issued in June by the Intergovernmental Task Force on Financial Activities (FATF).

FINMA emphasizes that Blockchain sector companies cannot be exempted from the country's regulatory standards such as the Anti-Money Laundering Act (AML). This is all the more important considering what the regulator perceives as increased risk, such as money laundering and terrorist financing, when it comes to pseudonymous Blockchain mechanisms.

Blockchain service providers are therefore required to carry out Know Your Customer (KYC) checks, apply a risk-based approach to monitor their business relationships, and notify the Swiss Money Laundering Office if they detect suspicious activities on their platforms.

The regulatory body emphasizes that its provisions should be interpreted in a technologically neutral way: therefore, the requirements for providing information on customers and beneficiaries along with payment orders apply to Blockchain payments in the same way as for bank transfers. However, such information does not have to be sent in the Blockchain but can be provided using other communication channels

Technical Market Overview:

The ETH/USD pair keep trading in a consolidation zone and might be developing a Triangle pattern. Currently, the market is trading between the technical support located at the level of $178.81 and technical resistance located at the level of $196.76. Despite the fact, that the whole WXYXZ corrective cycle might have been completed at the level of $172.82 on 15th of August, there is still no bullish momentum present on the market. The global investors should then await the breakout in either direction.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - $218.26

WR2 - $210.07

WR1 - $196.01

Weekly Pivot Pont - $185.93

WS1 - $171.02

WS2 - $161.63

WS3 - $146.97

Trading Recommendations:

The best strategy in the current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is still up. All the shorter timeframe moves are being treated as a correction inside of the uptrend. The current cycle is wave 2 of the higher degree and it might have been completed, so the uptrend should resume soon. The global investors are waiting for a breakout above the level of $238.68 to confirm the resumption of the uptrend.

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Technical analysis of BTC/USD for 27/08/2019:

Crypto Industry News:

A man from Los Angeles confessed to running a $ 25 million Bitcoin money laundering program and selling methamphetamine. American media reported that the 25-year-old, Kunal Kalra, could receive a life sentence.

Authorities say that in 2015-2017 Kalra exchanged BTC and dollars, ran a Bitcoin ATM and admitted to concluding transactions with drug dealers and other criminals.

Kalra also sold two pounds of methamphetamine to an undercover law enforcement agent. According to the report, he also faces an allegation of money laundering in Texas that was brought earlier this month.

The United States Department of the Treasury has recently added many cryptocurrency addresses to its list of Specially Designated Citizens (SDNs) under the Kingpin Foreign Drug Addiction Act, also known as the Kingpin Act.

In July, Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said the authorities would act to prevent Bitcoin from becoming "the equivalent of a Swiss bank account." According to Mnuchin, the US government daily fights "villains in US dollars to protect the US financial system."

Technical Market Overview:

The high of the recent BTC/USD rally was made at the level of $10,599, just above the 38% of the Fibonacci retracement, but no follow-through has occurred yet as the price got back to the channel again. Currently, the market is testing the lower price levels and it is hovering around the middle of the trading range between the level of $9,704 - $10,599. The upper channel boundary has not been violated as well, so the bears are still in control of the market.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - $11,710

WR2 - $11,306

WR1 - $10,534

Weekly Pivot Pont - $10,091

WS1 - $9,320

WS2 - $8,854

WS3 - $8,140

Trading Recommendations:

The best strategy in the current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is still up. All the shorter timeframe moves are being treated as a correction inside of the uptrend. The larger degree WXY correction might have been completed and the market might be ready for another impulsive wave up of a higher degree. Any violation of the level of $9,049 invalidates the bullish impulsive scenario.

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GBP/USD: plan for the European session on August 27. It's time for buyers to think about saving the trend

To open long positions on GBP/USD you need:

Yesterday, after a good report on orders for durable goods in the US, buyers of the pound did not manage to return to the resistance level of 1.2234, and now it is time to do it. To maintain an upward trend, bulls need to consolidate above 1.2234, which will lead to an update of the highs of 1.2280 and 1.2334, where I recommend taking profits. However, a further larger upward trend is unlikely to be possible without good news under the Brexit agreement. In case the pair further declines, support will be provided by the level of 1.2192, however, it is best to open long positions immediately on the rebound from the larger area of 1.2158, where bulls will try to build a new lower boundary for the upward trend.

To open short positions on GBP/USD you need:

As yesterday, bears will try to maintain the level of 1.2234, and the formation of a false breakdown there will allow the pair to remain in the short-term downward channel, which will lead to a decrease in GBP/USD to the low of 1.2192, where I recommend taking profit. However, a more important task for sellers will be the test of the low of 1.2158, which will determine the further bullish trend in the pair, which we have been observing since mid-August. If the pound grows above the resistance of 1.2234 in the morning, it is best to open short positions after updating the high of 1.2280, or, when there is good news on Brexit, to rebound from a larger level of 1.2334.

Signals of indicators:

Moving averages

Trading is conducted below 30 and 50 moving averages, which indicates a likely change in trend.

Bollinger bands

If the pound rises, the upside potential will be limited by the upper border of the indicator in the region of 1.2234. A break of the lower boundary at 1.2210 will increase pressure on the British pound.

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Description of indicators

  • MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow
  • MA (moving average) 30 days - green
  • MACD: Fast EMA 12, Slow EMA 26, SMA 9
  • Bollinger Bands 20
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Technical analysis of GBP/USD for 27/08/2019:

Technical Market Overview:

The bulls are temporary in control of the GBP/USD market and after another higher high was made at the level of 1.2293, the next target for them is located at the level of 1.2381. This is the short-term key resistance level and if violated, the correction might evolve into more trending move higher. Nevertheless, the whole move up is still a part of the correction, because it does not look like the beginning of a new, impulsive trend. The pair is currently testing the nearest technical support located at the level of 1.2209 in overbought market conditions. The next support is seen at the level of 1.2175.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.2616

WR2 - 1.2455

WR1 - 1.2395

Weekly Pivot Pont - 1.2226

WS1 - 1.2161

WS2 - 1.2001

WS3 - 1.1935

Trading Recommendations:

The best strategy for current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is down. All upward moves will be treated as local corrections in the downtrend. In order to reverse the trend from down to up, the key level for bulls is seen at 1.2429 and it must be clearly violated. As long as the price is trading below this level, the downtrend continues.

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for 27/08/2019:

Technical Market Overview:

The EUR/USD pair has made a move up towards the level of 1.1167, but there was a Doji candlestick made at the end of this move, so the bull was unable to break through this level for now. The bears have pushed the price towards the level of 1.1101 again, which is technical support for the price. The momentum returned to the neutral level and the market conditions are now coming off the overbought levels as well. Please keep an eye on the current developments as any move lower can change the market positioning for the next days.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.1293

WR2 - 1.1218

WR1 - 1.1193

Weekly Pivot Pont - 1.1119

WS1 - 1.1089

WS2 - 1.1014

WS3 - 1.0984

Trading Recommendations:

The best strategy for current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is down. All upward moves will be treated as local corrections in the downtrend. The downtrend is valid as long as it is terminated or the level of 1.1445 clearly violated. There is an Ending Diagonal price pattern visible on the larget timeframes that indicate a possible downtrend termination soon. The key short-term levels are technical support at the level of 1.1027 and the technical resistance at the level of 1.1250.

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EUR/USD: plan for the European session on August 27. The report on US orders returned demand for the dollar. Bears aim for

To open long positions on EURUSD you need:

Bad data from Ifo and a good report on the number of orders for durable goods, all this led to the strengthening of the US dollar in the afternoon on Monday. Currently, the emphasis will be placed on data on German GDP, which may lead to a further decrease in the euro. Therefore, it is best to open long positions after the support test of 1.1086, subject to the formation of a false breakdown there. If there are no active purchases in this range, I recommend postponing long positions until the low of 1.1055 is updated. An equally important task for the first half of the day for buyers is also to return to the resistance level of 1.1119, which will then make it possible to update a high of 1.1151, where I recommend taking profits.

To open short positions on EURUSD you need:

Bears will count on a weak report on Germany's GDP, which is likely to be so. Therefore, when a false breakdown is formed in the resistance area of 1.1119, short positions in euros can be opened, and the main goal will be to update the low of 1.1086, which sellers did not reach yesterday. Consolidating below this range will further increase pressure on EUR/USD and lead to a further downward trend in the support area of last week 1.1055, where I recommend taking profits. In a growth scenario above the resistance of 1.1119 in the morning, short positions can be returned immediately to a rebound from the resistance of 1.1151.

Signals of indicators:

Moving averages

Trading below 30 and 50 moving averages, which indicates the return of euro sellers to the market.

Bollinger bands

A break of the lower boundary of the indicator in the region of 1.1090 will only increase pressure on the euro. Growth will be limited by the upper level in the area of 1.1120.

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Description of indicators

  • MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow
  • MA (moving average) 30 days - green
  • MACD: Fast EMA 12, Slow EMA 26, SMA 9
  • Bollinger Bands 20
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GBP / USD: The illusion of optimism as Johnson is still preparing for war with the House of Commons

The pound continues to lose the positions won last week. The positive mood, which was provoked by the rhetoric of Angela Merkel regarding the prospects of Brexit, is gradually disappearing. The downward rollback of the GBP/USD pair is logical since the pair's growth was due only to emotions. Traders also "missed" the good news, so they even used a ghostly reason for optimism. However, the emotional growth of the currency is transient in any case, unless subsequently confirmed by other fundamental factors. In our case, the pound did not find further support on subsequent comments by European Council President Donald Tusk, which sobered the GBP/USD bulls after which the price returned to the base of the 22nd figure.

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Let me remind you that last week the German chancellor surprised market participants with quite peaceful rhetoric, saying that Britain and the EU will nevertheless try in the next 30 days to find an alternative to back-stop. Thereby, this solves the main Brexit problem. In general, Merkel was unusually optimistic about the further relationship between London and Brussels. Earlier, in similar negotiations with Theresa May, she took a much more rigid and uncompromising position. Such a dissonance took the market by surprise as the British currency began to be in demand and the pound/dollar pair tested the middle of the 23rd figure, respectively, updating the three-week price maximum.

Apparently, the problem is that Angela Merkel did not express the consolidated position of the leaders of the European Union. For example, French President Emmanuel Macron, who always had a rather tough stance on Brexit's prospects, was very skeptical of the idea of finding alternative ideas for a backstop. The head of the European Council, Donald Tusk, also "with hostility" took the results of the European voyage of Boris Johnson. He stated that Brussels is ready to listen to the ideas of the British Prime Minister, but only on a condition that "they will be realistic." He also added that Johnson risks entering the story as "Mr. without a deal." In response to this attack, the British prime minister replied that with this approach, it was Tusk who would become "Mr. Brexit without a deal."

The two politicians' close standoff has put pressure on the British currency, as their personal resentment reduces the likelihood of agreeing on a compromise solution - not to mention that Johnson's new ideas about backstop may not be supported by the rest of the EU leaders and/or House of Commons. In other words, the optimism of Angela Merkel was In other words, Angela Merkel's optimism was, to put it mildly, premature, given the background to the issue and the complex mechanism of harmonization. Here, it is worth recalling that Teresa May has been trying for almost three years to find a common denominator in the triangle "Brussels - House of Commons - Cabinet". But in the end, she has failed despite the "creative approach" to solving the problem. In this context, Johnson is much less flexible as a politician, so it is doubtful that he will complete this mission in 30 days.

Amid such bleak prospects, another piece of information has surfaced in the British press that shows Johnson's true intentions. The government correspondence was at the disposal of the journalists, where the prime minister requests Jeffrey Cox, the Attorney General of England and Wales, a legal assessment of the possible suspension of the work of the British Parliament for a five-week period. Johnson expressed his intention to block the House of Commons from September 9 so that deputies would not prevent him from withdrawing the country from the European Union without concluding a deal. This suggests that the British prime minister has little faith in the positive outcome of negotiations with Brussels. In fact, he is actively preparing for a confrontation with deputies of his own parliament. Experts say that Johnson is unlikely to take such radical action against the House of Commons, but the published correspondence could further turn the parliament against the incumbent.

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Let me remind you that many members of the House of Commons previously supported Corbin's idea of creating an interim government after a vote of no confidence in Johnson and a prolongation of the negotiation period with the EU. True, most leaders of the political forces did not agree to see Corbin as the head of the government of "national unity" and all of these are subject to political bargaining. I believe that the published government correspondence will only rally the opponents of Boris Johnson. By and large, Deputies of the House of Commons never supported the "hard" Brexit for the most part. Earlier this year, only 160 deputies voted in favor of this option, while 400 deputies voted against it. Since then, the number of "hawks" may have declined but has not increased, many experts said.

Thus, the pound was again under pressure from an external fundamental background. Investors' hopes of a compromise with Brussels are waning, while the likelihood of a "tough" Brexit is growing. Given these circumstances, the GBP/USD pair may return to the base of the 21st figure in the current week. However, caution should be exercised with short positions in this price area. After all, the political season will begin in Britain next week (parliament will return from the holidays), after which the behavior of the pair may become unpredictable.

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Forecast for EUR/USD on August 27, 2019

EUR/USD

The euro pulled back on Monday, returning to the range of the past week waiting for the symposium in Jackson Hole, closing the day down by 41 points. Technically, the pullback occurred from the Fibonacci level of 110.0% and the indicator balance line on the daily chart. The signal line of the Marlin oscillator fluctuates at the boundary of trends - falling and rising.

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On the four-hour chart, the price consolidated below the MACD indicator line, Marlin is still in the growth zone. In general, the situation remains uncertain and in equilibrium; to continue the decline, it is necessary to consolidate below the Fibonacci level of 123.6% (1.1074), moving upwards have three strong resistances: 1.1172 is the price channel line on daily, 1.1207 as the average value of the MACD line and Fibonacci level 100.0%, 1.1250 - the high of August 6, from any target, a price reversal into a medium-term decline can occur.

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Forecast for GBP/USD on August 27, 2019

GBP/USD

On Monday, the pound stopped short of the MACD line, a fall by 70 points, after passing the support level Fibonacci 223,6% and support line of the price channel on the daily chart scale. For further decline, today's candle should close below these graphic lines. In case of a price reversal, the MACD line (1.2285) remains the first target. The exit above it opens the second goal - the correction level of 200.0% at the price of 1.2350, more precisely, this is the target range of 1.2350/81, the upper border of which is formed by the low of July 17th.

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On a four-hour chart, the price is still above both indicator lines, the Marlin oscillator is in the decline zone. According to the combination of indicators of two time scales, the advantage of "bears". An important level here is 1.2154 - the MACD line on H4 at the point of coincidence with the Fibonacci level of 238.2%, overcoming which opens the way to decrease to the Fibonacci level of 261.8% at the price of 1.2032.

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Technical analysis: key intraday levels for EUR/USD, August 27, 2019

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When the European market opens, some economic data will be released such as German Final GDP q/q. At the same time, the United States will also release the economic data such as the Richmond Manufacturing Index, CB Consumer Confidence, S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI y/y, and HPI m/m. So amid the reports, EUR/USD will move with low to medium volatility during this day.TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVELS: Breakout BUY Level: 1.1155. Strong Resistance:1.1149. Original Resistance: 1.1138. Inner Sell Area: 1.1127. Target Inner Area: 1.1101. Inner Buy Area: 1.1075. Original Support: 1.1064. Strong Support: 1.1053. Breakout SELL Level: 1.1047 The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis: key intraday levels for USD/JPY August 27, 2019

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In Asia, Japan will release the BOJ Core CPI y/y and SPPI y/y while the US will also unveil some economic data such as the Richmond Manufacturing Index, CB Consumer Confidence, S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI y/y, and HPI m/m. So there is a probability the USD/JPY pair will move with low to medium volatility during this day.TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVELS:Resistance.3 : 106.44.Resistance. 2: 106.23.Resistance. 1: 106.02.Support. 1: 105.73Support. 2: 105.56.Support. 3: 105.35.(Disclaimer)The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Forecast for USD / JPY pair on August 27, 2019

USD / JPY pair

Trading of the yen was very intense during the Monday session at the conditional conciliatory statements of Donald Trump about the resumption of trade negotiations with China in a "calm environment". The volatility range was 196 points and as a result, the dollar grew by 74 points, forming a convergence on the daily chart with the Marlin indicator. The upper limit for yesterday's volatility was the line of the price channel on the daily timeframe at 106.43.

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Overcoming this level with consolidation will be a signal for further price growth with the first goal of 107.07, which was the coincidence point of the green price channel line and the MACD line. On a four-hour chart, the price is below the indicator lines. The Marlin oscillator is also in the lower zone. The scenario of a price increase is expected as the main outcome.

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Trading plan for EUR/USD for August 27, 2019

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Technical outlook:

The 4H chart of EURUSD is displayed with the recent potential wave counts. The high at 1.1250 seems to be potential wave 4 termination. The subsequent drop lower could be progression of wave 5 lower. Still, potential remains for a lower low below 1.1020 as long as the prices remain below 1.1250 and broadly below 1.1412 going forward. Also note that immediate resistance trend line is being followed by price action, producing a bearish bounce while intersecting. Intraday rallies are expected to remain capped below 1.1160 while the euro looks to carve lower lows. Immediate price resistance remains at 1.1250, followed by 1.1285/90. The fibonacci ratios (not given here) are indicating a potential push lower towards 1.0850/1.0930 levels before reversing higher again. The short term trading strategy remains to sell on rallies with a protective stop above 1.1412.

Trading plan:

Remain short with stop at 1.1412, target is below 1.1020.

Good luck!

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Daily analysis of EURCAD for 26.08.2019

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The above picture is the daily chart of EURCAD. We have plotted the moving average line using a blue line. Besides, the trend line is plotted using a black line. According to conventional technical analysis, the price is seen to be reacting every time it is touching the black line. It is in the process of forming a triangle pattern. From the definition of a downtrend, the price has made a lower high and may make a lower low. The price has reacted a couple of times from the support area, located near the low. Now that the price has fairly reacted form the trend line, it can be a good opportunity for traders who want to sell. Your target will be the recent low and stop-loss can be placed above the black trend line. If the price trades below the moving average line, then you can expect a lower low. This can result in a good risk-to-reward trade.

On the other hand, if the price is above the moving average, you should be inclined to buy. Based on your risk-taking ability, you could take either side of the trade. To reduce your risk, we suggest you rather sell than buy. It may take some time for clear buy signals with the possibility that the price can break out out even now. We advise you not to chase the price.

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Fractal analysis of the main currency pairs on August 27

Forecast for August 27:

Analytical review of currency pairs on the scale of H1:

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For the euro / dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.1249, 1.1205, 1.1189, 1.1170, 1.1135, 1.1107, 1.1077 and 1.1050. Here, the price forms a pronounced structure for the top of August 23 and is currently in the correction zone. The continuation of the movement to the top is expected after the breakdown of 1.1135. In this case, the first goal is 1.1170. The breakdown of which will allow us to count on movement to the level of 1.1189. Consolidation is near this value. The price passage of the noise range 1.1189 - 1.1205 should be accompanied by a pronounced upward movement. Here, the goal is 1.1249. We expect a pullback from this level.

Consolidated movement is expected in the range of 1.1107 - 1.1077. Hence, the probability of a turn to the top is high. The breakdown of the level of 1.1077 will lead to the development of a downward movement. In this case, the target is 1.1050.

The main trend is the ascending structure of August 23.

Trading recommendations:

Buy 1.1135 Take profit: 1.1170

Buy 1.1172 Take profit: 1.1189

Sell: 1.1075 Take profit: 1.1052

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For the pound / dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.2362, 1.2338, 1.2293, 1.2265, 1.2224, 1.2201 and 1.2167. Here, we continue to monitor the local ascending structure of August 20. Short-term upward movement is expected in the range of 1.2265 - 1.2293. The breakdown of the last value should be accompanied by a pronounced upward movement. Here, the target is 1.2338. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level of 1.2362. Upon reaching which, we expect consolidation, as well as a pullback to the bottom.

Short-term downward movement is expected in the range of 1.2224 - 1.2201. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to in-depth movement. Here, the target is 1.2167. This level is a key support for the top.

The main trend is the local structure for the top of August 20.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.2265 Take profit: 1.2290

Buy: 1.2295 Take profit: 1.2336

Sell: 1.2224 Take profit: 1.2201

Sell: 1.2198 Take profit: 1.2168

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For the dollar / franc pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 0.9920, 0.9893, 0.9877, 0.9839, 0.9817, 0.9777, 0.9756, 0.9704, 0.9673, 0.9650 and 0.9586. Here, the price is in equilibrium: the downward structure of August 23, as well as the formation of the potential for the top of August 26. Short-term downward movement is expected in the range of 0.9777 - 0.9758. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to a movement to the level of 0.9735, wherein consolidation is near this level. The breakdown of the level of 0.9735 will lead to the development of a downward structure from August 23. In this case, the first target is 0.9704.

Short-term upward movement is possibly in the range of 0.9817 - 0.9839. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to the development of the ascending structure from August 26. Here, the target is 0.987. Consolidation is in the range of 0.9877 - 0.9893. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level of 0.9920. Upon reaching which, we expect a pullback to the bottom.

The main trend is the equilibrium situation.

Trading recommendations:

Buy : 0.9817 Take profit: 0.9836

Buy : 0.9842 Take profit: 0.9875

Sell: 0.9777 Take profit: 0.9760

Sell: 0.9756 Take profit: 0.9735

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For the dollar / yen pair, the key levels on the scale are : 107.88, 107.14, 106.87, 106.52, 105.65, 105.37, 104.92 and 104.44. Here, the price is in equilibrium: the descending structure of August 23, as well as the ascending structure of August 26. The continuation of the movement to the top is expected after the breakdown of the level of 106.52. In this case, the target is 106.87. Consolidation is near this level. The passage at the price of the noise range 106.87 - 107.14 should be accompanied by a pronounced upward movement. Here, the potential target is 107.88, wherein consolidation is near this level.

Short-term downward movement is possibly in the range of 105.65 - 105.37. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to the development of a downward structure. In this case, the first goal is 104.92. For the potential value for the bottom, we consider the level of 104.44. Consolidation is near this level.

The main trend: the equilibrium situation: the descending structure of August 23, as well as the ascending structure of August 26.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 106.52 Take profit: 106.85

Buy : 107.15 Take profit: 107.88

Sell: 105.35 Take profit: 104.94

Sell: 104.90 Take profit: 104.46

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For the Canadian dollar / US dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.3299, 1.3275, 1.3259, 1.3237, 1.3217, 1.3182, 1.3158 and 1.3122. Here, we follow the downward cycle of August 20. Short-term downward movement is expected in the range of 1.3237 - 1.3217. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to a pronounced movement. Here, the target is 1.3182. Short-term downward movement, as well as consolidation is in the range of 1.3182 - 1.3158. For the potential value for the bottom, we consider the level of 1.3122. Upon reaching which, we expect a pullback to the top.

Short-term upward movement is possibly in the range of 1.3259 - 1.3275. The breakdown of the last value will lead to a long correction. Here, the target is 1.3299. This level is a key support for the downward structure.

The main trend is the descending structure of August 20.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.3259 Take profit: 1.3273

Buy : 1.3276 Take profit: 1.3299

Sell: 1.3237 Take profit: 1.3219

Sell: 1.3215 Take profit: 1.3182

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For the Australian dollar / US dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are : 0.6859, 0.6822, 0.6808, 0.6786, 0.6762, 0.6748 and 0.6725. Here, we are following the formation of the ascending structure of August 26. The continuation of the movement to the top is expected after the breakdown of the level of 0.6786. In this case, the target is 0.6808. Short-term upward movement, as well as consolidation is in the range of 0.6808 - 0.6822. The breakdown of the level of 0.6822 should be accompanied by a pronounced upward movement. Here, the target is 0.6859. Consolidation is near this level, as well as a pullback to the bottom.

Short-term downward movement is possibly in the range of 0.6762 - 0.6748. The breakdown of the last value will lead to a long correction. Here, the target is 0.6725. This level is a key support for the upward structure.

The main trend is the formation of the ascending structure of August 21.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 0.6786 Take profit: 0.6808

Buy: 0.6809 Take profit: 0.6820

Sell : 0.6762 Take profit : 0.6750

Sell: 0.6745 Take profit: 0.6725

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For the euro / yen pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 118.99, 118.67, 118.22, 118.01, 117.46, 117.28, 117.00 and 116.54. Here, the price forms the potential for the top of August 23. The continuation of the development of the ascending structure is expected after the price passes the noise range 118.01 - 118.22. In this case, the goal is 118.67, wherein consolidation is near this level. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level of 118.99. Upon reaching this level, we expect a pullback to the bottom.

Short-term downward movement is expected in the range of 117.46 - 117.28. The breakdown of the last value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the target is 117.00. This level is a key support for the upward structure. Its passage at the price will lead to the development of the downward movement. Here, the goal is 116.54.

The main trend is the downward cycle of August 13, the formation of the potential for the top of August 23.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 118.22 Take profit: 118.65

Buy: 118.68 Take profit: 118.95

Sell: 117.28 Take profit: 117.05

Sell: 117.00 Take profit: 116.55

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For the pound / yen pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are : 133.74, 132.73, 132.17, 131.23, 130.57, 129.00 and 128.12. Here, we follow the development of the ascending structure of August 12. Short-term upward movement is expected in the range of 130.57 - 131.23. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to a pronounced upward movement. Here, the target is 132.17. Short-term upward movement, as well as consolidation is in the range of 132.17 - 132.73. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level of 133.74. Upon reaching which, we expect consolidation, as well as a pullback to the bottom.

The range of 129.00 - 128.12 is the key support for the ascending structure of August 12. The breakdown of the level of 128.12 will favor the development of the downward movement. In this case, the first potential target is 126.48.

The main trend is the ascending structure of August 12.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 130.58 Take profit: 131.23

Buy: 131.26 Take profit: 132.17

Sell: 128.96 Take profit: 128.12

Sell: 128.10 Take profit: 126.55

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

The yen will seize the opportunity: demand for JPY will grow

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According to the currency strategists of the largest bank, Barclays Securities Japan, in the near future the Japanese currency may demonstrate growth. Demand for it as a defensive asset will increase, analysts are certain.

According to Barclays Securities Japan, the USD/JPY pair is on the verge of a new price range from 100 to 105, in which it will remain until the end of the year. The pair's dynamics will depend on the results of the US-China trade war, analysts emphasize. They are confident that investors will actively acquire the Japanese currency as a safe haven asset. At the moment, USD/JPY is under downward pressure due to the inaction of Japanese exporters who expect any price rebound to start selling. At the same time, other investors may restrain purchases of foreign bonds, since they do not exclude the acceleration of the yen rally.

Analysts recommend closely monitoring the dynamics of defensive assets, the demand for which has grown significantly. On Monday, August 26, the USD/JPY pair made an attempt to gain a foothold above 106.50, but lost more than 200 points. As a result, the Japanese currency fell below 105.00, updating the low since November 2016. However, specialists are positive, despite the fact that sales of the yen still remain relevant. At the moment, USD/JPY is trading in the range from 105.82 to 105.90, trying to regain previous positions.

According to Barclays analysts, the upward trend of the yen may slow down due to fears of a possible depreciation of the Japanese currency. Analysts believe that Japanese authorities can allow this after the USD/JPY pair drops below the level of 105. At the moment, the market is closely monitoring the actions of the Bank of Japan, expecting whether the regulator will take additional incentive measures at the upcoming September meeting.

The Japanese government is unlikely to intervene in the situation, since the current level of the US dollar against the yen is not critical. It is possible that Japanese authorities will remain on the sidelines also because they do not want a conflict with the United States. The leadership of Japan does not want to receive the status of a currency manipulator, analysts emphasize.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

#USDX vs EUR / USD vs GBP / USD vs USD / JPY. Comprehensive analysis of movement options from August 27, 2019 APLs &

Let's continue to prepare the options for the movement of trading instruments #USDX, EUR / USD, GBP / USD and USD / JPY on August 27, 2019 according to the results of the previous week.

Minuette operational scale (H4 time frame)

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US dollar index

The movement of the dollar index #USDX from August 27, 2019 will depend on the direction of the breakdown of the range :

  • resistance level of 98.05 (the upper boundary of the 1/2 Median Line channel of the Minuette operational scale fork);
  • support level of 97.90 (initial line SSL of the Minuette operational scale fork).

The breakdown of the upper boundary of the 1/2 Median Line channel (resistance level of 98.05) of the Minuette operational scale fork will make the development of the upward movement of the dollar index relevant, the goals of which are the control line UTL (98.30) of the Minuette operational scale fork - the initial line SSL Minuette (98.45) - local maximum 98.93 - control line UTL Minuette (99.15).

Returning the #USDX below the SSL start line (support level of 97.90) of the Minuette operational scale fork - option for developing the movement #USDX to goals - 1/2 Median Line Minuette (9 7.75) - lower boundary of the 1/2 Median Line Minuette channel (97.40) - local minimum 97.22 - the upper boundary of ISL38.2 (96.95) the equilibrium zone of the Minuette operational scale fork.

The details of the #USDX movement are presented in the animated chart.

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Euro vs US dollar

The movement of the single European currency EUR / USD from August 27, 2019 will also receive its development depending on the direction of the breakdown of the range :

  • resistance level of 1.1135 (the lower boundary of the 1/2 Median Line channel Minuette operational scale fork);
  • support level of 1.1100 (the upper boundary of the 1/2 Median Line channel Minuette operational scale fork)

The breakdown of the resistance level of 1.1135 will determine the development of the EUR / USD movement in the 1/2 Median Line Minuette channel (1.1135 - 1.1163 - 1.1185), with a breakdown of the upper boundary (1.1185) of which it will be possible to continue the development of the upward movement of the single European currency to the boundaries of the equilibrium zones of the Minuette operational scales fork (1.1220 - 1.1265 - 1.1320) and Minuette (1.1235 - 1.1285 - 1.1340).

In case of breakdown of the support level of 1.1100, the development of the EUR / USD movement will continue in the 1/2 Median Line channel (1.1100 - 1.1070 - 1.1035) of the Minuette operational scale with the prospect of updating the local minimum of 1.1027.

The details of the EUR / USD movement options are shown in the animated chart.

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Great Britain pound vs US dollar

Similarly, now for Her Majesty's currency, the development of the GBP / USD movement from August 27, 2019 will be determined by the direction of the breakdown of the range :

  • resistance level of 1.2225 (the lower boundary of the channel 1/2 Median Line Minuette operational scale fork);
  • support level of 1.2175 at the boundary of the red zone of the Minuette operational scale fork.

The breakdown of the resistance level of 1.2225 - the development of Her Majesty's currency movement will continue in the 1/2 Median Line Minuette channel (1.2225 - 1.2310 - 1.2395) with the prospect of reaching the lower boundary of the ISL38.2 (1.2485) zone of equilibrium of the Minuette operational scale fork.

The breakdown of the support level of 1.2175 at the boundary of the red zone of the Minuette operational scale fork, will continue the downward movement of GBP / USD which can be directed to the boundaries of the 1/2 Median Line channel (1.2130 - 1.2090 - 1.2040) and the equilibrium zone (1.2065 - 1.2000 - 1.1940) of the Minuette operational scale.

The details of the GBP / USD movement can be seen in the animated chart.

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US dollar vs Japanese yen

On the other hand, the development of the movement of the currency of the "land of the rising sun" USD / JPY from August 27, 2019 will be due to the development and direction of the breakdown of the boundaries of the equilibrium zone (106.20 - 105.65 - 105.06) of the equilibrium zone of the Minuette operational scale fork. We look at the animated chart for the details of the movement inside this zone schedule.

The breakdown of the support level of 105.06 at the lower boundary of the ISL61.8 zone of equilibrium of the Minuette operational scale fork will lead to updating the local minimum 104.47 and reaching the control line LTL (103.60) of the Minuette operational scale fork.

On the contrary, the breakdown of the resistance level of 106.20 at the upper boundary of the ISL38.2 equilibrium zone of the Minuette operational scale fork will determine the development of the upward movement of the currency of the country of the rising sun to the boundaries of the equilibrium zone (106.65 - 107.20 - 107.65) of the Minuette operational scale fork with the prospect of reaching the initial SSL Minute line (107.90)

The details of the USD / JPY movement are presented in the animated chart.

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The review is made without taking into account the news background. The opening of trading sessions of the main financial centers does not serve as a guide to action (placing orders "sell" or "buy").

The formula for calculating the dollar index :

USDX = 50.14348112 * USDEUR0.576 * USDJPY0.136 * USDGBP0.119 * USDCAD0.091 * USDSEK0.042 * USDCHF0.036.

where the power coefficients correspond to the weights of the currencies in the basket:

Euro - 57.6% ;

Yen - 13.6% ;

Pound Sterling - 11.9% ;

Canadian dollar - 9.1%;

Swedish Krona - 4.2%;

Swiss franc - 3.6%.

The first coefficient in the formula leads the index to 100 at the start date of the countdown - March 1973, when the main currencies began to be freely quoted relative to each other.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

How do currencies react to the new trading history?

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Last week ended violently, and there was plenty of news. At the same time, investors and traders did not receive fundamental factors, based on which further forecasts can be built. Therefore, markets are driven by fear and uncertainty. Thus, what do we have at the moment?

Speech by the Fed chief disappointed the market participants at Jackson Hole. Jerome Powell did not hint at the possibility of easing politics in September or in the near future, which caused the anger of the American president. At the same time, China announced its own tariffs, the Dow collapsed, and the dollar index experienced an aggressive sale. The USD / JPY and USD / CHF pairs lost almost 1% each. This trend may continue in the coming weeks, as the threat of a recession will increasingly frightened market participants and the Central Bank.

At the G7 meeting in France, Donald Trump caused some confusion, saying that he may have other thoughts on tariffs. The White House later clarified that the American leader regrets that he did not raise tariffs higher. On Monday, the Chinese Deputy Prime Minister called for a solution to the conflict through negotiations.

The trade war has reached a new level. Markets clearly believe that the Fed will now not dodge a more aggressive rate cut, at least in September. Traders, in turn, expect a quarter-point reduction at the next Fed meeting and more than 120 basis points by the end of 2020. The dollar briefly rejoiced at this state of affairs.

Therefore, it is difficult to predict how the plot of the war unleashed by Trump will develop further. One thing is clear - the conflict is escalating. It is worth paying attention to the fact that the dollar index could not gain a foothold above 98 once again. Currently, it is stuck in the active resistance zone of 97.5–98.5. With testing of 97.5, the direction opens to a slight decline to 96.5. If the US currency goes lower, it will mean a high probability of a large downward rally.

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One fact is worth mentioning here: the head of the Bank of England, during the symposium in Jackson Hole, proposed abandoning the dollar as a global currency. Boris Johnson, in front of the G7, said he would definitely talk to Trump about the growing concern over trade wars. In other words, officials publicly emphasized the volatility and insecurity of the dollar in the context of US policy. This is a big minus for the dollar.

As for the main pair, there are prerequisites for its recovery up to $ 1.13.

On Monday morning, the quotes of EUR / JPY is still declining, acting out the escalation of the trade war, then the correction began. From a technical point of view, the pair has the potential to recover to level 120.

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On the other hand, the Japanese yen is likely to be in demand, as there are plenty of reasons for concern in the markets. First of all, this is an escalation of the trade conflict and the situation with the yield of the treasuries. However, the authorities of the Land of the Rising Sun may not like this, and they will attempt to weaken the national currency. So far, the USD / JPY level is far from critical, although the quotes reached the lowest level in three years on Monday. Given what is happening, a new trading range may be formed for USD / JPY, and judging by Barclays' forecasts, it is 100-105.

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The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

The trade war between China and the United States is in full swing and could lead to a new Fed rate cut

Recently, Donald Trump decided to increase trade duties on a group of goods totaling about $ 300 billion to 15%, which was previously assumed that it would be 10%. These duties will be effective from September 2019. Also, duties will be increased not by 25%, but by 30%, for a group of goods worth $ 250 billion from October 1. This was a response to China's imposition of $ 75 billion in fees, which will be in effect from September 1 to December 15. Beijing's move was also a response to Trump's previously imposed duties. In general, a chain reaction is started. At the same time, the parties continue to report that negotiations are ongoing and from time to time they signal a certain progress that for some reason no one is watching. However, the intensity of trade relations between China and the States is clearly visible, which leads to a slowdown in the global economy, as well as the economies of the States themselves and China. Naturally, not without another message on Twitter from Trump. According to the president of the United States, China should not have introduced new duties, but now, it has run into an increase in duties from the States.

In addition, Donald Trump once again "drove" under the head of the Fed, Jerome Powell, writing on Twitter that "he does not know who the worst enemy of America is, Xi Jingping or Jerome Powell." A hint, of course, on Powell's reluctance to take and lower the bet immediately by 100 points, as Trump wants. A little later a loud statement followed that China had stolen billions or even trillions of dollars of intellectual property from America for years and was going to continue this activity. Trump said that "it's time to put an end to this." The US president also appealed to American companies that have production facilities in China with an appeal to look for an alternative as soon as possible, and even better to return to America. The fact that the production of any product in America is more expensive than in China several times, and therefore the price of many products, now produced in China, will increase several times, if production is moved to the States, Trump does not care. End consumers will pay, and companies whose losses, naturally, will fall due to rising prices and reduced demand, will suffer losses, while Trump will receive new tax revenues. Or not Trump, but the new US president, whose elections will be held in 2020.

It is precisely the second term of Trump's presidency that now raises a huge number of questions. China openly expects Trump to lose the election. The longer the trade war with China lasts, the worse America's economy feels, the better ordinary citizens feel the recession, the less chance that Trump will be re-elected. Even if Trump is right and "China has profited from America for years," the electorate is primarily interested in its own welfare, prices in stores, and the lack of a deficit in the goods he needs. Under Trump, all Chinese products have risen in price, while American or European counterparts are much more expensive. If a trade war begins also with the European Union, then the Americans, who are big fans of the European automobile industry, will also experience the rise in prices for European cars. In this case, it is unlikely that Trump's fans will increase in the election. And, of course, all this will have a negative impact on the US dollar.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

The risks of a market collapse has increased as never before for the recent times (there are still high risks of continued

The past week showed investors again that the situation of uncertainty and tension in the world markets will continue.

Last week, investors have been anxiously awaiting the speech of J. Powell, head of the Fed, at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, in the hope that he will make it clear that the Federal Reserve will not be indifferent and will not just watch the beginning of the trade "massacre" between the US and China, and will continue the process of lowering interest rate, and everything would be fine. However, the head of the American Central Bank, although he directly said that rates would continue to decrease, said that measures would be taken to support the national economy.

The markets took his words with optimism, and the dollar, especially paired with the European currency, began to decline, but all this "joy" did not last long. News from China that it will act in a mirror manner in the trade war with America, raising customs duties from two stages in September and December, cooled the positive mood of the markets. Also, the traditional message from D. Trump on Twitter that the United States will take additional measures of a tariff war with Beijing, unfolded market sentiment a hundred and eighty degrees. This change of mood led to a landslide drop in US stock indices, which today on Monday, has continued at the Asian trading.

Assessing the impact of another wave of negative on the markets, noting that it does not bode well. If the Fed slows down with an energetic decline in interest rates, then the fall in US stock indices will continue and may turn into an uncontrolled collapse. In this wave, prices for protective assets will only rise. Gold, government bonds of economically developed countries, as well as from the currencies of the Japanese yen and the Swiss franc will be in demand. And perhaps even the American dollar, which is only gaining support in a situation of uncertainty due to its function as a global reserve currency.

This week, it will be important to publish the next release of US GDP data for the second quarter. It is expected to reduce the growth rate to 2.0% from 2.1%. This dynamics is unlikely to please the Fed, and if the growth is even less, then the regulator simply will not have any obstacles in order not to start a cycle of lowering interest rates. It is hard to say how the market will react to this likely development of events, since the negative impact of the US trade war with China is too great. It may even happen that measures to cut down the cost of borrowing will simply not be enough, not only for the growth of the local stock market, but in general for its stabilization.

Forecast of the day:

The USDJPY pair is trading above the strong support level of 105.00-05 in the wake of rising demand for defensive assets amid another escalation of the trade war between the US and China last week. If the pair falls below this level, then we should expect its fall to 104.00.

The price of gold soared upwards in the wake of the aggravation of trade contradictions between Washington and Beijing. It can be adjusted to the level of 1533.40, but if this level persists, we should expect resumption of price growth to 1575.00.

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The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP/USD. August, 26th. The results of the day. Companies continue to leave the UK due to Brexit uncertainty

4-hour timeframe

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Amplitude of the last 5 days (high-low): 68p - 116p - 63p - 164p - 100p.

Average volatility over the past 5 days: 102p (high).

About 100 companies have already left the UK and about 300 are going to follow suit. One of the most popular countries for business emigration is the Netherlands. What does this mean for the pound? Nothing good for the whole of Great Britain. The emigration of companies negatively affects the number of jobs, as a result of unemployment and applications for unemployment benefits. The more applications, the greater the burden on the British budget, which may begin to experience a deficit. The fewer jobs, the less goods and services a country will produce, which will negatively affect GDP, industrial production and inflation. Given the global depreciation of the pound sterling, the continuing uncertainty with Brexit, the very high likelihood of the implementation of a "hard" Brexit, which will lead to an economic disaster, the prospects for the British economy are not just obscure, but frankly sad. The pound still has no reason to strengthen, except for the technical need to adjust and the technical impossibility to constantly decline. However, with such a fundamental background, the British currency could resume to fall in the near future. Today, the United States received another positive report on orders for durable goods. The UK cannot boast of strong statistics, which creates additional pressure on the pound.

Moreover, Boris Johnson is already embarking on outright blackmail by the European Union, threatening not to pay most of the 39 billion debt for secession from the EU if Brussels does not make concessions on the issue of back-stop on the Irish border. More precisely, if Brussels does not refuse this item in a previously reached agreement. Naturally, Brussels is not going to show weakness and has already answered London in tone: "If Boris Johnson refuses to pay 39 billion pounds, then Britain may not count on negotiations on a trade deal after Brexit." That is, the European Union is prepared to go into conflict with London and is completely justified. China is also roughly behaving in a trade conflict with the United States.

Now let's imagine what currency is at hand in the trade conflict between Britain and the EU? What currency will rise in price if London and Brussels clash in a trade battle? That's right, the US dollar. It will grow against the euro and against the pound. Even despite Mark Carney's proposal to abandon the dollar as a global reserve currency.

Technically, the pound has begun a new round of downward correction to the Kijun-sen line. So far, the upward trend has continued, and the signal to buy the Golden Cross is strong. But consolidating the pound/dollar pair below the critical line will mean the willingness of bears to "rush into battle" again.

Trading recommendations:

The pound/dollar currency pair began to adjust. Formally, long positions remain relevant with targets at levels 1.2312 and 1.2363, but trading with a high mark is still recommended with caution. It is recommended to sell the pound again after the formation of the signal from Ichimoku "dead cross".

In addition to the technical picture, fundamental data and the time of their release should also be taken into account.

Explanation of the illustration:

Ichimoku indicator:

Tenkan-sen is the red line.

Kijun-sen is the blue line.

Senkou Span A - light brown dotted line.

Senkou Span B - light purple dashed line.

Chikou Span - green line.

Bollinger Bands Indicator:

3 yellow lines.

MACD indicator:

Red line and bar graph with white bars in the indicator window.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR/USD: the roller coaster ride continues

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The annual Jackson Hole conference traditionally serves to give investors an idea of where the Fed's monetary policy will go. Therefore, markets were looking forward to Federal Reserve Chief Jerome Powell's speech at this event. When Alan Greenspan was still the chairman of the US central bank, another tradition appeared - to let in as much fog as possible so as not to bind oneself with any promises.

So did Jackson Hole on Friday and J. Powell. He did not give a clear signal at the interest rate in the future, but said that the Fed was ready to use more incentives in case of slowdown in the US economy. At the same time, the head of the Federal Reserve noted that the trade wars unleashed by the White House cause a lot of problems to the regulator.

Despite the vague wording of J. Powell, as well as a split in the ranks of the FOMC, many market participants still expect at least two rounds of federal rate cuts by the end of this year, one of which may take place on September 18.

This market sentiment, of course, could not but affect the quotes, and on Friday, the EUR/USD pair came close to the 1.1150 mark.

However, the main character of the day was far from J. Powell, but US President Donald Trump.

In response to the fact that China announced the introduction of duties on $75 billion worth of goods imported into the country from the United States on September 1, the head of the White House urged US companies to find an alternative to the Chinese market and announced an increase in tariffs on goods from China higher than planned.

In addition, D. Trump once again criticized Fed Chairman J. Powell, saying that the US has a very strong dollar and a very weak central bank, and has promised to work on both issues.

The market perceived these words as the upcoming interventions that the US Treasury will conduct in the foreign exchange market in order to weaken the dollar.

Against this background, the greenback fell sharply, and the main currency pair soared by 1%.

EUR/USD started the new week with a positive attitude, trading in the area of two-week highs at the 1.1150 mark, but then went down, testing daily lows in the 1.1115 area.

The US currency managed to win back some of the previously lost positions amid US President Donald Trump's statement that China had contacted US trade representatives last night and expressed a desire to return to the negotiating table to conclude a trade agreement.

"We are returning to the dialogue," D. Trump said.

Meanwhile, weak data on the business climate in Germany put pressure on the euro.

According to the IFO research institute, in August the business climate index in Germany dropped to 94.3 points. This is the lowest level since November 2012.

According to analysts, despite the fact that support at 1.1065 persisted, the single European currency has plenty of vulnerabilities for the EUR/USD pair to return to August lows.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com