EUR/NZD analysis for November 04, 2014

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Overview:


In our last analysis, EUR/NZD has been trading upwards. The price tested the level of 1.6198 in an average volume. EUR/NZD is in a bullish corrective phase, so I have placed Fibonacci expansion to find potential resistance. I got Fibonacci expansion 100% at the price of 1.6190 (held successful) and Fibonacci expansion 161.8% at the price of 1.6290. According to the 4H time frame, we can observe lack of demand around our Fibonacci expansion (1.6190), which is a sign that buying EUR/NZD at this stage looks risky. We also got an absorption volume in the background, which makes EUR/NZD very risky for mid-term buying. Anyway, if the price breaks the level of 1.6190 in a high volume and strong price action, we may see testing the level of 1.6255 (swing high like resistance)


Daily Fibonacci pivot levels:


Resistance levels:


R1: 1.6202


R2: 1.6243


R3: 1.6310


Support levels:


S1: 1.6068


S2: 1.6027


S3: 1.5960


Trading recommendations: Be careful when buying EUR/NZD pair since our Fibonacci expansion 100% held successful


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Gold: analysis for November 04, 2014

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Overview:


Since our last analysis, gold has been trading sideways around the price of 1,170.00. We got supply in an ultra high volume (selling climax) in the background and sideways movement is normal arfter strong selling pressure. Our swing low at the price of 1,183.00 is broken, so we may expect testing the level of 1,147.00 (major Fibonacci expansion 161.8%). We are facing again very low activity on the market, so we are waiting for a larger volume and stronger price action. According to the 1H timeframe, we got rejection from our Fibonacci expansion 100% at the price of 1,174.00, which is a good sign for further bearish movement. Be careful when buying Gold and watch for potential selling opportunities after retracement.


Daily pivot Fibonacci points:


Resistance levels:


R1:1,172.81


R2: 1,175.73


R3: 1,180.47


Support levels:


S1: 1,163.33


S2: 1,160.41


S3: 1,155.67


Trading recommendations: Buying gold at this stage looks risky since we got rejection from Fibonacci expansion 100%


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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for November 4, 2014

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Overview :



  • The price of NZD/USD pair is moving between the levels of 0.7715 and 1.7805. As it is known, if the trend is upward, then the strength of the currency will be defined as follows: NZD is in an uptrend and USD is in a downtrend. It should be noticed that the major support had set at the level of 0.7697 and the strong resistance had already placed at the price of 0.7804. Moreover, we expect a new range about 107 pips in the coming two days. Therefore, buy above 0.7700 with the first target of 0.7764, it might resume to 0.7805. The price of 0.7764 and 0.7805 coincides with the ratio of 23.6% Fibonacci retracement levels and 38.2% respectively. On the other hand, below the level of 0.7805 (38.2% of Fibonacci retracement levels) look for further downside with targets at 0.7752 and 0.7699. Also, it should be noted that the level of 0.7699 will form a strong the double bottom in H1 and H4 charts). Stop loss should never exceed your maximum exposure amounts. So, your stop loss should be around 52 pips for each positions today.


Intraday technical levels:


Date and Time:4/11/2014 11:18


Pair:NZD/USD



  • R3: 0.7868

  • R2: 0.7830

  • R1: 0.7775

  • PP: 0.7737

  • S1: 0.7682

  • S2: 0.7644

  • S3: 0.7589


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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for November 4 - 2014

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Today's support and resistance levels:


R3: 1.6263


R2: 1.6183


R1: 1.6147


Current spot: 1.6129


S1: 1.6103


S2: 1.6084


S3: 1.6033


Technical summary:


The break above 1.6121 is positive, but we still need to see acceleration higher towards 1.6263 and above for a rally towards 1.6446 and higher. Short term, we will be looking for support at 1.6103, which ideally will protect the downside for a break above minor resistance at 1.6183 and more importantly a break above resistance at 1.6263 for the rally to 1.6446 and above. Only an unexpected break below 1.6033 will invalidate the bullish picture.


Trading recommendation:


We are long in EUR from 1.6085 with stop place at 1.6025. If you are not long in EUR yet, then buy near 1.6103 or upon a break above 1.6183 with the same stop at 1.6025.


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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for November 4 - 2014

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Today's support and resistance levels:


R3: 143.04


R2: 142.56


R1: 142.26


Current spot: 141.86


S1: 141.25


S2: 140.95


S3: 140.45


Technical summary:


There was no time for a correction to 140.40 and red wave iii moved directly higher towards 143.04 as the next upside target. If red wave iii ended a little early at 142.56, then we could see a new minor correction in red wave iv to 140.45 before the next powerful rally higher to 143.03 and higher to 144.64. Short-term support will be found at 141.25 and again at 140.45, which is expected to protect the downside for the next rally higher to 144.64


Trading Recommendation:


We will buy EUR at 140.50 or upon a break above 142.25 with a stop at 139.50.


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Technical analysis of GBP/USD for November 4, 2014

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Overview :



  • The resistance of GBP/USD pair has already set at the level of 1.6039 (minor resistance which represents the weekly pivt point) and the support has set at 1.5903 (the weekly support 1). Therefore, according to the previous events, the price has still been moving between 1.5942 and 1.6039, then it should be noted that the range today will be around 97 pips. Consequently, the trend in the H1 time frame is calling for a bearish market at the level of 1.6039. Hence, below 1.6039 look for further downside move with targets at 1.5942, if it can break the double bottom today (1.5942). So, the price will continue towards 1.5900 today. On the other hand, buy above 1.5890 in the short term of the same day with the first target at 1.5933; it might resume to 1.6040 tomorrow in order to test the pivot point of this week.


Notes :



  • We expect a range of 97 pips.

  • Risk of 65 pips must make a profit of 97.

  • The value of 50% Fibonacci retracement levels is 1.6062.

  • Volatility: 231.92, thus the market indicates the higher volatility.


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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for November 4, 2014

General overview for 04/10/2014 08:50 CET


Three impulsive waves to the upside has been made and now it is time for the corrective cycle wave (iv) to test the intraday supports at the levels of 141.36 and eventually 140.00 again. Nevertheless, the bias is bullish and when the corrective cycle is done, an impulsive breakout above the level of 142.55 is expected with a projected target at the level of 143.67.


Support/Resistance:


143.78 - Larger Time Frame Swing High |Key Level|


143.67 - WR1


143.47 - Technical Resistance


142.55 - Intraday Resistance


141.36 - intraday Support


140.11 - Weekly Pivot


Trading recommendations:


Day traders should consider opening buy stop orders from the level of 143.57 with SL below the level of 141.36 and TP at the level of 143.67.


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#USDX Technical analysis for November 4, 2014

The Dollar index remains in the bullish trend and has made a new higher high yesterday. The upward move from 85 could very well be complete and we could see a pull back towards 86.50-86.90 any time. However, the longer-term view remains fully bullish as long as price is above 85 with 91 as a target. The bullish flag target remains to be seen.


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The Dollar index remains above the Ichimoku cloud. The Dollar index has pulled back towards the tenkan-sen support and has held above it. If this support is broken in the 4-hour chart, we should expect a pull back towards the kijun-sen at 86.30. So critical support is found at 87-87.10.


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The Dollar index remains fully bullish in the daily chart and I continue to expect a move towards 91 to complete the bullish flag pattern. We could see a pull back but I still believe this will be another buy opportunity as the up trend remains strong. A pull back below 86 will start to worry me if the up trend has more to go or has finished.


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Gold Wave analysis for November 4, 2014

Gold price is moving sideways as part of wave 4 of the decline from $1,255. A new lower low is expected towards $1,135 for the short-term. My longer-term view remains bearish with $1,050 as a target but first we could see a bounce towards $1,180-$1,200.


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Gold price as shown in the 30-minute chart above is most probably in its 4th wave. The alternation rule by Elliott wave theory suggests that wave 4 should have a different form of correction relative to wave 2. Where wave 2 was steeper and retraced 38% of the decline of wave 1, wave 4 is moving sideways as a triangle pattern. Wave 5 is expected to complete near $1,135.


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Gold price has not managed to come close even to the 23.8% retracement. Price remains below the Ichimoku cloud and all ichimoku indicators remain bearish. The trend remains strongly bearish with my longer-term target of $1,050 still unchanged. Breaking below $1,160 will give us another sell signal with $1,173 stop and $1,140-$1,130 target.


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Technical analysis of USD/CAD for November 4, 2014

General overview for 04/10/2014 08:30 CET


After making a triangle pattern in wave -iv- black the market broke the yesterday's resistance and made a new high, just shy of the previous swing high at the level of 1.1384. The five impulsive waves are now completed and a corrective sub-cycle is being expected now. The intraday support at the level of 1.1330 should provide a good base for a bounce and trend continuation. The bias is bullish and any violation of the level of 1.1384 is the first confirmation of higher prices to come soon.


Support/Resistance:


1.1462 - WR2


1.1384 - Swing High


1.1380 - WR1


1.1375 - Intraday Resistance


1.1330 - Intraday Support


Trading recommendations:


All buy orders advised last week should still be kept open and any breakout above the level of 1.1384 provides another opportunity to add to existing buy orders. SL should be moved just below the level of 1.1251. First projected TP is at the level of 1.1462, it might be hit at the end of the week.


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Technical analysis of GBP/CHF for November 04, 2014


Technical outlook and chart setups:


The GBP/CHF pair reversed from sub 1.5450 levels yesterday, after producing an evening star candlestick pattern on the 4H chart. Also please note that the fibonacci 0.786 resistance was also passing through the same region. A follow through is required now, below 1.5300 levels (counter trend line could break there), which could trigger further downside. Resistance is seen at 1.5470/80, followed by 1.5550 while support is seen at 1.5280/1.5300, followed by 1.5200, 1.4975 and lower respectively. It is recommended to remain short and also look to add further positions at current levels, risk remains at 1.5550. Bears could remain in control till prices remain below 1.5550.


Trading recommendations:


Remain short, set stop above 1.5550, target is open.


Good luck!


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Technical analysis of Gold for November 04, 2014


Technical outlook and chart setups:


Silver has also produced a doji yesterday, indicating a potential reversal ahead. The metal bottomed at $15.75 levels before closing well above $16.00 levels. Presently trading at the $15.90/95 levels, the metal could see support coming in here. A push through $16.50 levels could confirm that a potential bottom is in place at $15.75 levels for now. Support is seen at $15.75 (interim), followed by $14.60, while resistance is seen at $17.40/50, followed by $17.80/18.00 and higher up respectively. It is recommended to stay flat for now and watch out for a potential bullish reversal candlestick pattern on the daily chart.


Trading recommendations:


Remain flat for now.


Good luck!


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Technical analysis of Gold for November 04, 2014


Technical outlook and chart setups:


Gold has produced an indecision candle on the daily chart yesterday, indicating a potential reversal. The metal is trading at $1,167.00/68.00 levels for now, and a push through $1,190.00 levels today would confirm that a potential bottom is in place. The weekly structure indicates that $1,154.00 levels is fibonacci support and the metal could test it before reversing the trend. Resistance begins from the $1,197.00 levels, followed by $1,220.00, $1,235.00/55.00 and higher while support is at $1,154.00/50.00 respectively. $1,255.00 resistance needs to be taken out to confirm that Gold has reversed. It is recommended to remain flat for now and watch out for a bullish reversal signal.


Trading recommendations:


Remain flat for now. Awaiting bullish reversal.


Good luck!


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Technical Analysis on GBP/JPY for November 04, 2014

The BOJ unexpected take that, it's tripled the pace of its buying stocks and property funds. The annual asset purchases will rise to around 80 trillion yens from 70 trillion yens. The yen is depreciating against USD, EUR and GBP. The cross GBP/JPY closed at the highest point in the previous month. The cross has resistance at 183.80 the 50.0 fib level. The pair is trading at 4-year high. The pair has monthly support between the 179.66 and 177.30 levels. In the daily chart, the pair made a double top at 182.15. We recommend fresh buying only above 182.15 levels. On the down side the pair has support at 180.73 previous swing high in the daily chart.


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For an intraday view, the prices are closed and trading above hourly key moving averages in the h4 chart. For an hourly view, the support level exists at 181.30 and 181.00, resistance at 182.50. The hourly stochastic is indicating a pull back signal. We can see strong momentum on the north side above 181.82 with the target at the 182.15 levels. We recommend buying above 181.82 and selling below 181.00 levels.


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Technical Analysis on EUR/JPY for November 04, 2014

The BOJ unexpected take that, it's tripled the pace of its buying stocks and property funds. The annual asset purchases will rise to around 80 trillion yens from 70 trillion yens. The yen is depreciating against USD, EUR and GBP. The cross EUR/JPY closed at the highest point in the previous month. The cross has parallel resistance between 143.44 and 143.78. In the weekly and monthly charts, the cross gave an upside breakout. We can expect strong momentum only above 143.78. In the daily chart, the pair made a double top at 142.34. The daily stochastic is indicating an extreme overbought signal. On the down side, the cross has support at 141.22. We recommend buying only above 142.34, safe traders buying above 142.55 with the target at 143.40 levels.


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For an intraday view, the prices are closed and trading above hourly key moving averages. For an hourly view, the support level exists at 141.82. The safe buying will be triggered above 142.34, so risky traders can buy with sl 141.80 with targets at 142.33 and 142.50. The pair can challenge 143.50 in case if it breaches and trades above 142.60 levels.


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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for November 04, 2014


Technical outlook and chart setups:


The EUR/JPY pair rose past 141.65 levels yesterday. The pair rallied from 135.50 levels to 142.50 levels without much retracement. Furthermore, the pair has taken out past resistance at 142.50 levels as well on the daily chart view. High probability from here on is for a pullback, at least into 139.00/140.00 levels if not further. Resistance is now seen at 143.50, followed by 145.50, while support is seen at 140.00, followed by 137.00, 135.50.00 and lower respectively. It is recommended to exit long positions if holding any and wait for a meaningful pullback for now.


Trading recommendations:


Exit long positions and remain flat for now.


Good luck!


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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for November 04, 2014

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When the European market opens, some economic news will be released such as Spanish Unemployment Change, EU Economic Forecasts, PPI m/m. The US will release the economic data too such as the Trade Balance, Factory Orders m/m, IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism, Congressional Elections, so amid the reports, EUR/USD will move with low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY TECHNICAL LEVELS:

Breakout BUY Level: 1.2559.

Strong Resistance:1.2551.

Original Resistance: 1.2539.

Inner Sell Area: 1.2527.

Target Inner Area: 1.2497.

Inner Buy Area: 1.2467.

Original Support: 1.2455.

Strong Support: 1.2443.

Breakout SELL Level: 1.2435.


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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for November 04, 2014

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In Asia, Japan will release the Final Manufacturing PMI and the US will release some economic data such as Trade Balance, Factory Orders m/m, IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism, Congressional Elections. So there is a big probability the USD/JPY will move with low volatility during the Asian session, but with low to medium volatility during the US session.

TODAY TECHNICAL LEVELS:

Resistance. 3: 114.24.

Resistance. 2: 114.02.

Resistance. 1: 113.79.

Support. 1: 113.52.

Support. 2: 113.30.

Support. 3: 113.07.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Forecast and trading recommendations on USD/CAD for November 04, 2014

The US dollar is enjoying its rally supported by the ISM manufacturing PMI data and the BOJ stimulus jump. The US dollar is very strong against most major currencies. The pair started this week on a highly bullish note. As of now, this week the pair is trading above the previous swing weekly high on a closing basis. This is the third consecutive month, the pair is trading on a bullish note. As we recommended earlier, the pair is challenging for 1.1640 200MEma levels. On the higher side, the pair has immediate resistance at 1.1386. In case, if this week the pair manages to close above 1.1386 levels, fresh longs will be added for a target at 1.1530 and 1.1640 levels. The weekly support exists at 1.1260 levels.


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For an intraday view, the prices are facing parallel resistance at 1.1386. Above this the pair can challenge another upswing for target at 1.1450 levels. On the down side the pair has support at 1.1330, below this, 1.1266 and 1.1259 will act as trend decider levels. We recommend selling below 1.1290 for targets at 1.1275, 1.1264 and 1.1259. Below 1.1255, the selling force will increase for a downside target at 1.1224, 1.1186, and 1.1166 levels. On the other side, we recommend buying above 1.1380 for targets at 1.1400 and 1.1450 levels.


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Daily analysis of USDX for November 04, 2014

On the daily chart, the USDX continues gaining ground over the support level of 86.20, so the USDX is trying to make a breakout on the resistance level of 87.35. If successful, the next target on the bullish road would be the 88.63 level in the medium term. However, keep in mind that the USDX is overbought.


Dailychart's resistance levels: 87.35 / 87.93


Dailychart's support levels: 87.00 / 86.75




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The USDX has established itself above the level of 87.28, reaching new high record levels in the H1 chart. However, the USDX had previously made several fractals at the 87.45 level, so the USDX could conduct a rebound at current levels and try to climb up to the resistance level of 87.58. The MACD indicator remains in positive territory.


H1 chart's resistance levels: 87.58 / 87.86


H1 chart's support levels: 87.28 / 87.00


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Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place buy (long) orders only if the USD Index breaks with a bullish candlestick; the resistance level is at 87.28, take profit is at 87.58, and stop loss is at 87.00.


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Daily analysis of GBP/USD for November 04, 2014

The GBP/USD is moving in range above the support level of 1.5951, because this pair is currently forming a bearish pattern that helps strengthen the bearish outlook in the medium term for the GBP/USD. However the GBP/USD could conduct a retracement to the resistance level of 1.6051. The MACD indicator remains in positive territory.


H4chart's resistance levels: 1.6004/1.6051


H4chart's support levels: 1.5951/1.5874


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In the H1 chart, the GBP/USD is being rejected by the support level of 1.5925 so this pair could go back up to the 200 SMA at the 1.6031 level. However, there is still a high probability that this pair will carry out another breakout at the level of 1.5980 and fall to the level of 1.5925, which is a pretty strong support level. In the short term, our bearish outlook still remains alive.


H1 chart's resistance levels: 1.6031/1.6075


H1 chart's support levels: 1.5980/1.5925


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Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place sell (short) orders only if the GBP/USD pair breaks a bearish candlestick; the support level is at 1.5980, take profit is at 1.5925, and stop loss is at 1.6035.


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GBP/USD intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for November 3, 2014

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Overview:


The GBP/USD pair has been moving downwards respecting the depicted downtrend line since July 15 when the ongoing downtrend was initiated.


Many bearish impulses were previously initiated around 1.7180, 1.6630, and 1.6400 where the downtrend line came to meet the pair then.


The price zone of 1.6060 - 1.6090 constituted a transient daily support that paused the bearish movement for a few days since September 9. However, bears quickly managed to push below reaching down to 1.5890 (depicted on the chart).


Price level of 1.5890 provided a solid daily support level that provided evident bullish recovery. A bullish engulfing daily candlestick is manifested on the chart.


Recently, bulls have pushed above the downtrend line. Bullish breakout off the downtrend line as well as an inverted bullish Head and Shoulders are already manifest on the chart.


Bullish fixation above 1.6060 was essential to maintain the bullish scenario. However, the bears have failed to do so. Instead, the market is moving again towards the backside of the broken trend line once again.


The 4H chart shows a Flag pattern after a strong bearish impulse initiated off 1.6150. This is a continuation pattern. However, price levels around 1.5940 remains a strong intraday support corresponding to multiple daily lows (Thursday and Friday).


Trading recommendations:


Price action should be watched near the previous daily lows around 1.5950.


A valid buy entry can be taken if significant bullish rejection is expressed. Until now, the market is showing hesitance especially after the two -Doji- daily candlesticks of both Thursday and Friday.


Bullish fixation above the price level of 1.6035 ( Thursday's highest level ) and 1.6075 confirms our suggested bullish position. The bullish target would be located around 1.6150 initially.


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