HSBC downgrades Brent crude oil price forecast from $80 to $64

Experts HSBC Holdings plc. worsened the forecast for the price of Brent crude from $ 80 to $ 64 per barrel for 2019 due to an increase in the US production.

The forecast for the price of WTI crude oil was also reduced from $ 74 to $ 57 per barrel.

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HSBC analysts expect that OPEC will adhere to a restrained approach to production and the average oil production in the current year of the countries of the organization will be 31.6 million barrels per day.

According to the HSBC analytical review, the growth rate of oil production in the United States is highly dependent on prices on the international oil market. At a cost of Brent ranging from $ 0 to $70 per barrel, American oil production will grow by 0.8 million barrels per day.

In addition, experts believe that in the second half of the year, the price of oil will receive additional support from the entry into force of a new standard for sulfur content in marine fuels - IMO-2020.

On Tuesday at 10:00 London time, the cost of the March futures for Brent crude rose by 0.68% to $ 59.39 a barrel and WTI futures for February delivery rose in price by 0.65% to $ 50.84 a barrel.

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Pound sterling pending an important vote on Brexit

Today, British parliamentarians will need to make a decision that can determine the scenario for the United Kingdom's withdrawal from the European Union. The further dynamics of the British currency depend on the voting results in the House of Commons.

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The question of whether the country's Prime Minister Theresa May can get parliamentary approval for her bill on Brexit terms or not is still open.

The further dynamics of the British currency depend on the voting results in the House of Commons.

There are several options for the development of events.

1. Theresa May wins.

If the parliament approves the draft transaction promoted by the head of government, the pound will rise in price against the dollar, as a result of which, the GBP/USD pair will easily reach the level of 1.31 and then continue to rally to 1.35.

2. Theresa May will lose a minimum margin (50 or fewer votes).

This outcome is likely to signal that the position of the Prime Minister is not as weak as it is currently believed, and she has enough support in the government to try to push the deal again.

It is not excluded that Theresa May, herself, will consider this a victory and will continue negotiations with the EU on the mechanism of "bet stop".

In this case, the pound can strengthen to $1.30, but not more.

3. The head of the cabinet will lose by a large margin.

Losing 100 or more votes will be a serious challenge for Theresa May, and she will have to extend the 50th article of the Lisbon Treaty or withdraw Britain from the EU without a deal. Regardless of what the next steps of the Prime Minister will be, the defeat of May will provoke a sharp drop in the pound exchange rate, which will push the GBP/USD pair below 1.25. The further fate of the British currency will depend on how quickly the head of government announces a backup plan of action and how aggressively the opposition insists on holding early parliamentary elections or a repeat Brexit referendum.

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Theresa May: The Path to Calvary

So, this day has come. The British Parliament will vote today whether it will support the agreement with the EU, concluded by Prime Minister Theresa May.

Experts promise a crushing defeat in May.

Is it possible that this will actually become a vote of no confidence in the May government?

- Yes, probably. How can the prime minister rule the country when the most important decision of the parliament failed?

Most likely, the failure of the agreement with the EU will lead to the resignation of the cabinet and to new elections quite possibly.

Furthermore, Britain's withdrawal from the EU will take place at the end of March 2019. And if the agreement is failed, there will be an exit without an agreement and this is very negative for the British economy.

Why do MP's vote against the agreement?

Part of it is because they are generally against the exit of Britain and the latter, it is because they believe that May is bending too far under the EU. Although my opinion is not at all like this - rather, the EU is too far towards Britain.

Voting is scheduled for 19.00 London time.

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Simplified wave analysis of EUR / GBP for January 15

Large-scale graphics:

Since mid-April last year, the price of the cross forms a rising wave. The last wave of the scale H4 gave rise to the final segment (C).

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Medium scale graphics:

From December 10, the price forms a flat wave in the form of an expanding triangle. In a larger wave, it takes the place of correction (B).

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Small -scale graphics:

On January 3, launched a downward wave zigzag. The wave structure looks complete. The upper limit of the calculated target zone has been reached, but no turn signals are observed.

Forecast and recommendations:

In the upcoming weekly period, there is a high probability that the current flat will be completed and the movement vector will change. In the area of calculated support, it is recommended to track reversal signals in order to search for entry into long positions by the pair.

Resistance zones:

- 0.9030 / 0.9080

Support areas:

- 0.8870 / 0.8820

Explanations for the figures: The simplified wave analysis uses waves consisting of 3 parts (A – B – C). For analysis, 3 consecutive graphs are used. Each of them analyzes the last, incomplete wave. Zones show calculated areas with the highest probability of reversal. The arrows indicate the wave marking by the method used by the author. The solid background shows the formed structure, the dotted - the expected movement.

Attention: The wave algorithm does not take into account the duration of tool movements over time. To conduct a trade transaction, you need confirmation signals from the trading systems you use!

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Simplified wave analysis of USD / CHF for January 15

Large-scale graphics:

On the chart of the major franc, the uptrend that started in February last year continues. In the emerging wave, the first 2 parts (A-B) are completed. Since September, the final part (C) has been tested.

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Medium scale graphics:

The bearish wave from mid-November was a correction in a larger wave structure. The wave structure looks complete. The upper limit of the large-scale support zone has been reached, but the reversal signals on the graph have not yet been formed.

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Small-scale graphics:

The ascending segment, which began on January 10, has enough potential for reversal. After the completion of the first part (A) of the wave, a price pullback (B) will follow.

Forecast and recommendations:

There remains a high probability that the wave of decline and change in the course of the short-term trend will end. After the upcoming price reduction, it is recommended to focus on the pair buy signals.

Resistance zones:

- 0.9900 / 0.9950

Support areas:

- 0.9760 / 0.9710

Explanations for the figures: The simplified wave analysis uses waves consisting of 3 parts (A – B – C). For analysis, 3 consecutive graphs are used. Each of them analyzes the last, incomplete wave. Zones show calculated areas with the highest probability of reversal. The arrows indicate the wave marking by the method used by the author. The solid background shows the formed structure, the dotted - the expected movement.

Attention: The wave algorithm does not take into account the duration of tool movements over time. To conduct a trade transaction, you need confirmation signals from the trading systems you use!

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP / USD: plan for the American session on January 15. Pound lowers before the key vote on Brexit

To open long positions on GBP / USD, you need:

Pound buyers failed to break above yesterday's highs, which led to the expected downward correction. At the moment, a return and consolidation above the resistance of 1.2868 is required, which may return new buyers to the market, however, most likely, the demand before the Brexit vote is unlikely to be serious. When scenarios further movement of the pound down, you can see the purchase from the level of 1.2792 or rebound from 1.2712. All forecasts are valid only until the publication of the Brexit solution.

To open short positions on GBP / USD, you need:

An unsuccessful consolidation above the resistance level of 1.2868 will be the first signal for opening short positions in a pound, but the main task will be the breakdown and consolidation under the support of 1.2792, which will collapse GBP / USD to the minimum near 1.2712 and 1.2658, where I recommend fixing the profits. In the case of a pound rising above 1.2868, before the publication of the Brexit vote results, short positions can be opened to rebound from resistance 1.2929.

Volatility and movement on the pound can be very strong and do not forget about the gaps that can be formed, so it's not a fact that your stop orders that you will place will be executed at the prices you need.

Indicator signals:

Moving Averages

Trade returned to the area of 30-day and 50-day moving, which indicates a possible change in the upward trend to the downward one.

Bollinger bands

Volatility remains low, which does not give signals to enter the market.

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Description of indicators

MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow

MA (moving average) 30 days - green

MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9

Bollinger Bands 20

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BITCOIN Analysis for January 15, 2019

Bitcoin managed to push higher above the $3,600 area after a certain bounce off the area from where the price is currently making a correction before pushing further upwards in the process. The price is currently held by 200 EMA as resistance while Kijun and 20 EMA are holding the price as support. The price movement above Kumo Cloud also indicates that the bullish pressure is quite stable now and may lead to further bullish momentum in the coming days. Though the trend is currently bearish, but having certain bullish engulfing momentum in the process, further upward momentum is expected as the price breaches above 200 EMA with a daily close. As the price remains above the $3,500-600 area, the impulsive bullish pressure is anticipated to continue in order to push the price higher towards the $4,000 area in the future.

SUPPORT: 3,000, 3,500, 3,600

RESISTANCE: 4,000, 4,250, 4,500

BIAS: BEARISH

MOMENTUM: VOLATILE

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How will a Brexit agreement vote affect oil?

The oil market again demonstrates increased volatility as Brent quotes fluctuate in the range of $59- $60 per barrel. Two factors exert pressure on the oil rate today - the loss of investor interest in risky assets against the background of weak data on China's foreign trade, as well as the approximation of a vote in the British House of Commons on Brexit.

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As is known, Chinese economic statistics often serves as a leading indicator of future global economic recovery rates. Accordingly, the depressing data on the volume of imports (decreased by 7.6%) and exports (decreased by 4.4%) led to the emergence of new concerns about a slowdown in global growth.

Today we should pay attention to the results of the vote on the Brexit agreement in the British Parliament. The lack of a deal will lead to a decrease in Brent oil prices since Brexit without a deal could trigger a financial crisis in England, which will be another threat to global demand for hydrocarbons.

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Dollar gives way to the euro

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The EUR / USD rate reached 1.1485, having found support at 1.145. "Bulls" on the main currency pair did not manage to scare the weak statistics on the eurozone, rumors about the resumption of the US-EU trade conflict, as well as Trump's statement about the absence of specifics in the Washington and Beijing talks.

Sources in the White House told the Wall Street Journal of their readiness to complete a truce with the European Union, whose goal is to eliminate trade barriers and increase exports of US agricultural, energy and other products to the EU. There are rumors in the market that Donald Trump will immediately switch to Europe, after settling issues with the Middle Kingdom.

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Tariffs cause suffering to China, says the president of the United States. Such a statement may well indicate Washington's willingness to compromise.

Not only is Beijing alone suffering from trade wars, but they are also causing a lot of trouble to other export-oriented countries. Take, for example, Germany. A fall in demand and other factors can drive a country's economy into a technical recession. The volume of supply of goods and services outside the Federal Republic of Germany in GDP exceeds 47%, while in the United States this figure is less than 20%. It is quite clear where the problems come from European automakers and in industrial production as a whole. So, the November figure was the worst since February 2016, losing 1.7% m / m.

The picture, of course, is grim, but further, apparently, it will be better. According to OECD estimates, the PRC economy has begun to show signs of recovery. Last year, the Asian state reduced taxes and fees, reduced standards for deductions to the mandatory reserves fund and expanded infrastructure investments. All this will continue in 2019. Although Reuters writes that China's GDP growth targets will shrink to 6–6.5% from 6.6%, China will remain the main driver of global economic growth. In this scenario, the Euroblock economy can count on improving external demand, moreover, the ECB is pinning its hopes on domestic demand. The improvement in the labor market, the intensive rise in average wages against the background of low inflation create favorable conditions for the growth of consumer activity and GDP.

In the meantime, there are a lot of negative factors on the USA in the form of a fall in business investment, a strong national currency, high corporate loan rates and a decline in the stock market. In the medium term, we can expect a bullish trend for the EUR / USD pair, but for this to happen, the weather in the eurozone economy should get better.

Now euro fans at least need to move quotes outside the consolidation range of 1.1265–1.1485 with subsequent testing of the January maximum.

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It is worth noting that the euro and other major currencies are waiting for the results of the UK parliamentary vote on the country's withdrawal from the Eurozone. Volatility may be higher than normal. According to Bloomberg, seasonal price patterns suggest a possible strong destabilization of currencies in the next two weeks. Thus, the monthly historical volatility index from Deutsche Bank, which tracks the daily dynamics of 10 key currencies, grew 16 times in January over the past 20 years.

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Euro hopes for growth

Eurozone

The decline in industrial production in the eurozone in November was noticeably stronger than predicted, losses amounted to 1.7% versus 0.1% growth a month earlier, a 3.3% reduction year on year, this is the worst result for the whole ECB stimulation policy.

Growth prospects in the eurozone look worse and worse, a growth of 2.5%, fixed in 2017, looks unattainable now. In 2018, GDP growth rates fell below 2%, in the current one, it is unlikely to exceed 1%. The economy has been slowed down by several negative factors, of which it is difficult to single out one as the dominant one, reduction of incentives from the ECB, crisis in Italy, trade war between the USA and China led to a general slowdown in world trade, protests in France, hard prospects Brexit. The problems in the automotive industry in Germany are a long list. All of these problems in one way or another contributed to a decline in business activity; composite PMI fell faster than in most developed countries.

Nevertheless, the prospects for the euro are not so gloomy, and they depend primarily on how the market regards the likelihood of an ECB rate hike this year. There are grounds for such expectations despite the slowdown in inflation, wage growth rates are high, and this is now the main factor behind the growth of the euro.

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Wage growth suggests that inflation will also accelerate, albeit at low rates. By the end of 2019 (autumn of 2018, when inflation slowed down under the influence of several factors at once), price increases will become more stable, and the ECB will have grounds for a rate increase.

Such a scenario now dominates, which means that a reciprocal movement is planned between the euro and the dollar. Even a one-time rate increase may be decisive in light of the fact that the Fed, by contrast, may lower the rate by the end of the year due to the impending recession. This scenario has an obvious weakness, the business slowdown may accelerate, and wage growth will have to say goodbye, but for now, the markets prefer to track current trends that are in favor of the euro.

Today, EUR / USD is neutral, 1.1449 is likely to stand, a bit more likely to rise above 1.1490.

Great Britain

The pound rose on Theresa May's comments on Monday, but growth cannot be considered sustainable. the Brexit parliamentary vote can both raise and lower the pound. If the number of opponents of the agreement does not exceed 100 people, a resistance test of 1.30 is possible, otherwise, GBP / USD may decline to 1.2750.

Oil and Ruble

In December, oil reacted with a noticeable delay to the decision of OPEC + to cut production in the first half of 2019, and in order to clarify, OPEC plans to inform the markets about specific levels of reduction. OPEC probably wants to be less dependent on general market or even speculative market conditions, since both the rise in prices at the end of December and the recent correction were due to external factors. The resumption of trade negotiations between the US and China and the publication of a noticeable decline in imports and exports in China.

The threat of a faster than expected slowdown in the growth of the global economy is still relevant. China is likely to be forced to resort to additional measures aimed at stimulating the domestic market in all developed countries, including the UK, the United States, and Germany, and industrial output is declining, which creates an additional threat in the form of lower energy demand.

Immediate prospects are favorable, in January Brent will try to go above the December high of 63.70, but stronger growth is still unlikely. The balance will most likely form in the range of $ 60 - $ 65 per barrel unless some new factors intervene.

The Bank of Russia today resumes the purchase of currency within the framework of the budget rule, this may put some bearish pressure on the ruble, however, given the record surplus of the current account, easing is unlikely to be noticeable. The ruble feels confident, the upper limit of the 67.3 range is likely to stand, more likely to decline to 66.50, followed by a 65.90 target in the next 1-2 weeks.

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Oil rollercoaster ride

The week by January 11th turned out to be the best for black gold in the last six months. As a result, the North Sea variety expanded the correction to 20% of 18-month bottom levels but continues to trade 30% below the October highs. Factors such as the entry into force of the agreement between OPEC and other producing countries to reduce production by 1.2 million b/s, the uncertainty regarding the grace period for oil imports from Iran, the decline in US reserves and the number of drilling rigs from Backer Hughes from 888 to 873 favor the correction Brent and WTI. However, the problems of global demand periodically inspire bears to counterattacks.

Thus, Bloomberg experts unexpected the education in Chinese exports and imports in December became a catalyst for sales of black gold, reinforcing concerns about a slowdown in China's GDP. An Official in Beijing immediately issued a statement of readiness to stimulate the economy in the monetary and fiscal spheres. At the same time, a reduction in taxes and norms for deductions to the mandatory reserves fund, as well as an increase in infrastructure investments in 2018, should be felt soon. At least the OECD notes that the Chinese economy is likely to find its footing.

Looks pretty curious picture in the US, Bloomberg experts expect reserves to drop by 2.5 million b/d following the week by January 11. As a result of which, the figure may fall to its lowest level since November. If we add to this the problems with the increase in the number of drilling rigs, then it can be assumed that the US oil industry is working at the limit. However, Goldman Sachs notes that the "bullish" market allowed US producers of shale oil to add 0.86 million b / d from June to August. This is the best indicator for the entire history if we ignore the recovery periods after the hurricanes. If in the current conditions on the background of the correction of Brent and WTI, it will grow as fast, the rollback will not last long.

Excessive oversold of oil in the face of potential improvement in global demand, the problems of American producers and the reduction in OPEC production force speculators to get rid of short positions in the North Sea variety. At the end of the week by January 8, their value fell by 3.6%, which expanded the net longs to 158,146 futures and contracts options(+ 3.8%).

Dynamics of Brent and speculative positions

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It is possible that black gold will continue to ride the roller coaster, but the median forecast of the average price among more than 100 experts surveyed by Reuters for 2019 remained unchanged at $ 65 a barrel. By 2020, it has been lowered from $70 to $65. Last year it was about $ 70. Thus, economists expect that OPEC and Russia will manage to balance the black gold market.

Technically, after reaching the intermediate target of 78.6% for the "Shark" pattern, a regular rollback went in the direction of 23.6%, 38.2% and 50% of the CD wave. If the bulls manage to keep Brent quotes above $ 58.7 per barrel, the risks of a correction to a downtrend will increase.

Brent daily chart

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EUR / USD pair: plan for the American session on January 15. Weak data on the euro area led to the fall of the euro

To open long positions on EUR / USD pair, you need:

In the first half of the day, a report was released on the Eurozone's foreign trade surplus, which r amounted to only 19.0 billion euros in November last year against 23.4 billion euros in November 2017, which put pressure on the euro. Currently, buyers are required to return to the resistance level of 1.1440, above which we can expect a larger upward trend in the area of 1.1472, where I recommend taking profits. If the pressure on the euro continues further, it is best to consider new long positions after updating the minima of 1.1407 and 1.1378.

To open short positions on EUR / USD pair, you need:

Bears coped with the task for the first half of the day. Currently, only an unsuccessful consolidation and a return below the resistance level of 1.1440 can lead to a further decline in the European currency in the area of the minimums of 1.1407 and 1.1378, where I recommend taking profits. Weak data on the producer price index in the US may lead to a larger upward correction in the area of 1.1472, where you can open short positions in EUR/USD pair to immediately rebound.

Indicator signals:

Moving averages

Trade is conducted below the 30- and 50-moving averages, which indicates that the downward trend in the market continues.

Bollinger bands

The volatility of the Bollinger Bands indicator has dropped, which does not give signals to enter the market.

More in the video forecast for January 15

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Description of indicators

MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow

MA (moving average) 30 days - green

MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9

Bollinger Bands 20

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EUR/USD analysis for January 15, 2019

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Recently, the EUR/USD pair has been trading downwards. The price tested the level of 1.1418. According to the H4 time – frame, I have found a finished expanded flat bullish correction phase, which is a sign that downward movement can resume. My advice is to watch for selling opportunities. The downward target is set at the price of 1.1315. EUR/USD is overall still in a big consolidation phase.

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Analysis of Gold for January 15, 2019

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Recently, Gold has been trading sideways at the price of $1,289.00. According to the H1 time – frame, I have found a broken intraday bearish flag in the background, which is a sign that sellers are in control. I also found that there is hidden bearish divergence on the MACD oscillator and that a potential test of the support at $1,285.00 will be the key for a further direction. My advice is to watch for selling opportunities but if you see that Gold reaches the key support, secure your position on the breakeven. The breakout of the support would confirm potential testing of the $1,275.00.

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential selling opportunities.

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OPEC will announce the volume of reduction of oil production

Representatives of the cartel plan to publish data on the levels of reduction in oil production by OPEC + countries, according to the agreement on December 7, 2018. It is expected that the publication of these data will help overcome the distrust of the market in relation to the December decision. After the decision of OPEC + to reduce production volumes, the cost of oil Brent continued to decline, dropping to $ 49.3 per barrel. Later it recovered along with the growth of US stock indices. In general, oil futures went up by 20%.

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According to specialists, production of OPEC + countries should decrease by 1.195 million barrels per day to 43.874 million barrels. Cartel countries should reduce oil production by 812 thousand barrels to 25.937 million barrels per day, and independent oil producers by 383 thousand barrels to 17.937 million barrels per day. The authorities of the kingdom have already notified OPEC that they will reduce production to 10.2 million barrels per day this month. The volume of oil production in Russia should be less by 230 thousand barrels to 11.191 million barrels per day.

In general, the actual reduction in the production of black gold by OPEC countries will be 3.02%, taking into account relief measures for Iran, Libya and Venezuela. Non-cartel countries will reduce production by 2%.

Experts draw attention to the fact that oil prices largely depend on the market situation, in particular, on the actions of the Federal Reserve System (FRS) of the USA. For example, the rise in oil prices slowed down immediately after the publication of statistical data on inflation in America. According to analysts, the inflation rate was higher than 2%, which is why the Fed can continue to tighten monetary policy.

According to OPEC + plans, a meeting of the Ministerial Monitoring Committee will be held in Baku in the near future scheduled on 17th and 18th of March 2019. A month later on same dates of this year, a ministerial meeting of the countries of the cartel and independent oil producers will take place in Vienna. The closest technical meeting of OPEC will be held between February 7 and 8. It is scheduled to discuss a draft of a perpetual charter of cooperation proposed earlier.

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Bitcoin analysis for January 15, 2019

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Trading recommendations:

According to the H4 time - frame, I found that BTC created a potential double bottom pattern, which is a sign that selling looks risky. I have also found that therer is the bullish impulsive wave in the background and hidden bullish divergence on the LBR oscillator, which is another sign of the potential strength. My advice is to watch for buying opportunities if you see breakout of the potential bullish flag. The breakout of the $3.672 would confirm potential test of $3.910.

Support/Resistance

$3.670 – Intraday resistance

$3.440– Intraday support

$3.910 – Objective target

With InstaForex you can earn on cryptocurrency's movements right now. Just open a deal in your MetaTrader4.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for January 15, 2019

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On the weekly chart, the EUR/USD pair is demonstrating a long-term Head and Shoulders reversal pattern where the right shoulder is currently in progress.

On the Daily chart, the pair has been moving sideways with slight bearish tendency. Narrow sideway consolidations have been maintained within the depicted daily movement channel since June 2018.

On November 13, the EUR/USD demonstrated recent bullish recovery around 1.1220-1.1250 where the lower limit of the channel as well as the depicted demand zone came to meet the pair.

Bullish fixation above 1.1420 was needed to enhance further bullish movement towards 1.1520. However, the market has demonstrated significant bearish rejection around 1.1420 few times so far.

Last week, a recent attempt of bullish breakout above 1.1520 (upper limit of the depicted movement channel) was executed. However, early signs of bearish rejection are being expressed on the H4 and daily charts.

Bullish persistence above 1.1520 enables further bullish advancement towards 1.1600 (October's High) and probably 1.1720 if enough bullish momentum is maintained.

On the other hand, any bearish decline below the key-levels of 1.1520 & 1.1420 brings more sideway consolidations down to 1.1260 again.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for GBP/USD for January 15, 2019

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Since mid-November, Successive Lower Highs were demonstrated around the price levels of 1.3060, 1.2920 and 1.2800 maintaining movement within the depicted H4 bearish channel

Shortly after, a quick decline was demonstrated towards the price level of 1.2500 before bullish recovery could take place on December 12.

A bullish Head & Shoulders pattern was demonstrated on the H4 chart with a neckline located around 1.2650-1.2680. Hence, a successful bullish breakout above the depicted bearish channel was demonstrated on December 24.

On December 31, early bullish breakout attempt above 1.2720 was demonstrated on the H4 chart. However, the market failed to maintain sufficient bullish momentum above 1.2800 (mid-range of the depicted consolidation range).

That's why, another bearish pullback was executed towards 1.2500 (backside of the broken channel) where significant bullish recovery was demonstrated two weeks ago.

Last week, another bullish breakout above 1.2720 was attempted to resume the bullish scenario of the market aiming towards 1.2800, 1.2880 and 1.3000.

Bullish persistence above 1.2800 (Mid-Range) is mandatory for buyers. Any decline below 1.2800 invalidates the bullish scenario bringing the GBP/USD pair again into sideway consolidations that may extend down towards 1.2720 (Lower limit of the depicted consolidation range).

On the other hand, the price level of 1.2880 stands as an intraday key-resistance corresponding to the upper limit of the previous consolidation zone (1.2720-1.2880).

Strong bullish breakout above 1.2880 is mandatory for Buyers as a valid BUY signal to look for further bullish advancement towards 1.3000 initially.

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Trading Plan for 01/15/2019

Yesterday, the dollar continued to lose its position against the pound but the single European currency has, in fact, stood still. The growth of the pound is purely speculative in anticipation of today's vote in the British Parliament on the issue of the "divorce" agreement with the European Union. The result is practically impossible to predict since the parliamentarians are not satisfied with the absence of the economic part in the current version of the agreement and for this reason, at the end of last year it was decided to postpone the vote. Yet to this day, there is no progress on this issue. On Monday, Jean-Claude Juncker assured Theresa May that he will make every effort to speed up the negotiation of trade issues with all countries of the European Union. It turns out that the British Parliament is invited to vote for the cat in the bag, what happened last year and almost provoked the Prime Minister's resignation. However, the promise of the head of the European Commission inspired market participants and they continued to buy the pound with optimism.

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The single European currency failed to support its neighboring island, not only because the inclusion of trade aspects in the "divorce" agreement is not very suitable for a number of European countries, but also due to poor industrial production data. After all, the rate of growth in November was 1.2% and then replaced by a recession. By the end of 2018, the European industry fell by as much as 3.3%, which in itself drives us down.

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Today, all attention is only to the vote in the British Parliament. Fortunately, no other news is expected anymore, and macroeconomic data are not coming out. But given the complete unpredictability of the results, it is better to remain cautious and act on the fact.

The euro/dollar currency pair, after a recovery decline, came close to the level of 1.1440, after which it went into the stage of recoil/stagnation. Against the background of informational hype, one can expect primary stagnation but then jumps depending on the decision of the parliament.

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The pound/dollar is surprisingly growing, reaching a value of 1.2929. It is likely to assume that this bay carries with it some kind of emotional character, where we can fall back and forth at the same speed. Due to the upcoming parliamentary vote, trading positions are considered extremely risky, and the big players consider only one position that is to move out of the market until the circumstances are clarified.

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The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of NZD/USD for January 15, 2019

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Overview: The NZD/USD pair breached resistance which had turned into strong support at the level of 0.6705 this week. The level of 0.6705 coincides with a golden ratio (61.8% of Fibonacci), which is expected to act as major support today. The RSI is considered to be overbought, because it is above 70. The RSI is still signaling that the trend is upward as it is still strong above the moving average (100). Besides, note that the pivot point is seen at the point of 0.6882. This suggests that the pair will probably go up in the coming hours. Accordingly, the market is likely to show signs of a bullish trend. In other words, buy orders are recommended to be placed above 0.6800 with the first target at the level of 0.6882. From this point, the pair is likely to begin an ascending movement to the point of 0.6882 and further to the level of 0.6984. The level of 0.6984 will act as strong resistance. However, if there is a breakout at the support level of 0.6705, this scenario may become invalidated.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of GBP/USD for January 15, 2019

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Overview: The GBP/USD pair continues to move upwards from the level of 1.2728. Yesterday, the pair rose from the level of 1.2728 to the top around 1.2780. Today, the first resistance level is seen at 1.2814 followed by 1.2888, while daily support 1 is at 1.2728. According to the previous events, the GBP/USD pair is still moving between the levels of 1.2728 and 1.2888; so we expect a range of 160 pips. Furthermore, if the trend is able to break out through the first resistance level at 1.2814, we will see the pair climbing towards the double top (1.2888) to test it. Therefore, buy above the level of 1.2728 with the first target at 1.2814 in order to test the daily resistance 1 and further to 1.2888. Also, it should be noted that the level of 1.2888 is a good place to take profit because it will form a major resistance today. On the other hand, in case a reversal takes place and the GBP/USD pair breaks through the support level of 1.2728, a further decline to 1.2670 may occur which will indicate the bearish market.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Wave analysis of GBP / USD for January 15. What awaits the UK in the coming months?

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Wave counting analysis:

On January 14, the GBP / USD pair added about 20 bp, stopping near the 61.8% Fibonacci level was short-lived. The instrument showed its readiness to further increase as part of the proposed wave 3 of the new uptrend trend. Today, January 15, a vote will be held in the British Parliament on the exit plan from the EU, which has been coordinated with European leaders Teresa May. According to rumors, it will be rejected by parliamentarians, but in any case, strong movements in different directions during the day are possible.

Shopping goals:

1.2997 - 76.4% Fibonacci

Sales targets:

1.2716 - 38.2% Fibonacci

1.2609 - 23.6% Fibonacci

General conclusions and trading recommendations:

The pair GBP / USD continues to build an upward wave. Based on the updated wave marking, I recommend cautious purchases with the target of 1.2997, which equates to 76.4% Fibonacci. Today, I recommend trading with extreme caution. Since there is no exact time when to expect voting results; therefore, information on this topic can be received at any time, and the market reaction can be turbulent.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Indicator analysis. Daily review for January 15, 2019 for the pair GBP / USD

On Monday, the price moved up and tested a rolling level of 50.0% - 1.2887 (yellow dotted line). Strong calendar news today comes out at 4:30 pm Moscow time. T

Trend analysis (Fig. 1).

On Tuesday, work up with the first top target 1.2931 - the upper fractal.

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Fig. 1 (daily schedule).

Comprehensive analysis:

- indicator analysis - up;

- Fibonacci levels - up;

- volumes - up;

- candlestick analysis is neutral;

- trend analysis - up;

- Bollinger lines - up;

- weekly schedule - up.

General conclusion:

On Tuesday, work up with the first top target 1.2931 - the upper fractal.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Fundamental Analysis of EUR/JPY for January 15, 2019

EUR/JPY has been struggling to move higher above 125.00 area since it bounced off the 119.00 area with strong bearish rejection recently. EUR has come under pressure as a result of the recent budget deficit and crisis issues. Besides, BREXIT is certainly bearish for the single European currency. So, EUR is likely to extend weakness versus JPY.

Ahead of ECB President Draghi's speech today, French Final CPI report is going to be published which is expected to be unchanged at 0.0% and French Government Budget Balance is going to be published which previously was at -87.0B and expected to have optimistic outcome. Moreover, today the eurozone's Trade Balance report is going to be published which is expected to expand to 13.2B from the previous figure of 12.5B. According to German Private Bank, ECB is missing out the chance of increasing interest rates in the economy cycle while investors are fretted about eurozone's economic slowdown. The ECB is not going to move its policy rates from the record low at least through summer 2019 which has demotivated the market bias from EUR. The ECB stance is another reason behind EUR's weakness.

On the other hand, today JPY M2 Money Stock report was published with an increase to 2.4% as expected from the previous value of 2.3% and Prelim Machine Tool Orders report was published with a decrease to -18.3% from the previous value of -17.0%. Ahead of Governor Kuroda's speech on Thursday, JPY is expected to trade flat ahead of the economic data to be published in the coming days.

Meanwhile, EURO is soft and indecisive ahead of the upcoming economic reports. ECB President Draghi's speech is unlikely to provide EUR with support. Japan's reports are also quite mixed and EUR is losing momentum. Nevertheless, JPY could assert strength in the short term amid sustainable economic growth in Japan.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price is currently residing at the edge of 125.00 being below the area with daily close. The dynamic level of 20 EMA is also expected to act as strong resistance from the price which is expected to lead the price lower towards 119.00-120.00 support area in the future. On the other hand, a break above 125.00 may lead to certain bullish pressure but ultimately it is expected to push lower with the trend in the future. As the price remains below 130.00 area with a daily close, the bearish bias is expected to continue.

SUPPORT: 119.00, 120.00, 122.00

RESISTANCE: 125.00, 127.50, 130.00

BIAS: BEARISH

MOMENTUM: VOLATILE

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The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR and GBP: Prospects for the future movement of the euro are vague. Trump rejected the proposal to resume the work of the

The absence of important fundamental statistics on Monday forced traders to take a wait-and-see position in the EUR / USD pair, but demand remained in GBP / USD amid news from the Conservative Party of Great Britain.

USA

Statements by US President Donald Trump that negotiations with China are going very well and that an agreement may be reached in the near future did not greatly affect the US dollar rate.

More investors' attention was attracted by the decision of the US President to reject the proposal of one of his closest allies in the Senate to temporarily resume the work of the government. Yesterday, Senator Lindsey Graham suggested that Trump resume the government's work for the next three weeks, but Trump did not agree with this, as the decision to finance the immigration bill, the main problem of which is to build a wall on the border with Mexico, has not yet been worked out. Trump also noted that the resumption of the work of the government as a whole depends on the Democratic Party.

The speech of the next representative of the Federal Reserve System was also ignored by the market since only the "lazy" one did not speak about interest rates and the prospects for their increase.

Fed Vice Chairman Richard Clarida said that the Fed will do everything in its power in the absence of official data, and the decision on rates will be taken from meeting to meeting, taking into full account the economic situation, including world data.

The representative of the Fed also noted that the implications of a slowdown in global economic growth for the United States do not seem to be serious yet, and the latest data does indicate a certain acceleration in the growth of companies' investments in the 4th quarter of last year.

Clarida is confident that if a policy adjustment is required, and this can happen only if a recession occurs, the Fed will not hesitate with a decision.

As for the technical picture of the currency pair EUR / USD, it remained unchanged compared with yesterday's forecast. Buyers of risky assets need to go back to the resistance level of 1.1490 since the future direction will depend on it. If this fails to be done, then it is likely that the bears will continue to push the euro down to the support levels of 1.1425 and 1.1370.

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Great Britain

The British pound rose slightly against the US dollar, having updated its maximum after the news appeared on the market that a number of members of the British Conservative Party are ready to support the Brexit deal agreed upon by Prime Minister Theresa May on today's vote. We are talking about the ERG group, which at the end of last year criticized the prime minister, which led to the organization of a vote, at which her leadership was challenged.

In more detail about the prospects for the movement of the British pound, I spoke yesterday.

If today the deal with the EU in the framework of voting does not receive the support of parliamentarians, then the British pound may remain in the side channel until a final decision is made, since there are a lot of future development scenarios. Starting from the postponement of the exit of the UK from the EU, ending with indiscriminate exit without the adoption and approval of the basic laws.

The prospect of complete abolition of Brexit also has a place to be that will support the British pound when information appears about the next referendum on this matter.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Wave analysis of EUR / USD for January 15. The euro has plans to build a third impulse wave

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Wave counting analysis:

On Monday, January 14, trading ended for EUR / USD with a minimum increase of 10 bpts. Thus, it can be said that the wave marking has not changed at all. And from the current position, it is expected to resume the instrument increase within the estimated wave 3 and c with targets located near the Fibonacci level of 161.8%. Today, in the UK, there will be a vote on the plan of Theresa May on the country's withdrawal from the EU. This event can affect not only the pound, but also the euro. So today, you need to be ready for any development of events.

Sales targets:

1.1444 - 38.2% Fibonacci (formal goal)

Shopping goals:

1.1599 - 161.8% Fibonacci

1.1677 - 200.0% Fibonacci

General conclusions and trading recommendations:

The pair continues to be in the construction stage of the proposed wave 3 in s. Now, I still recommend buying the instrument with targets located near the estimated marks of 1.1599 and 1.1677, which corresponds to 161.8% and 200.0% in Fibonacci. Correctional wave of 3, s can already be completed. But during this day, sharp changes of direction are possible, as it is possible to receive important information from the UK on Brexit.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP / USD. January 15. The trading system. "Regression Channels". Hour X for UK and pound sterling has arrived

4-hour timeframe

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Technical details:

The senior linear regression channel: direction - down.

The younger linear regression channel: direction - up.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - up.

CCI: 139.0805

The currency pair GBP / USD on Tuesday, January 15, continues its upward movement. Thus, traders before the results of the parliamentary vote on the Brexit issue show an enviable optimism. Although previously we have repeatedly said that for the pound sterling now, absolutely any decision on Brexit (except for the next vote transfer) will be positive. The British currency and the UK itself need clarity now, both in the Brexit issue and in the political sphere. Therefore, today strong bursts of activity on the instrument are possible, however, in general, after a few days, the pound sterling should be calm down. The further fate of the pound will already depend on the new state policy. It also appeared that two bills on the second referendum could be sent to the UK Parliament at once. They are expected to be registered if Theresa May's Checkers plan is rejected today. Then the country will have to choose between two scenarios: either unordered Brexit or rejection of Brexit. And it is not known yet which option will the parliament ultimately choose and with which Prime Minister. According to Theresa May, the parliament is obliged to accept her plan, since the rejection of Brexit "will strengthen the position of opponents and lead to a split in the UK." Theresa May fears that Scotland, if Brexit fails, will demand independence, and Ireland and Northern Ireland will want to unite.

Nearest support levels:

S1 - 1.2817

S2 - 1.2695

S3 - 1.2573

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 - 1.2939

Trading recommendations:

The currency pair GBP / USD continues to move up. Thus, purchase orders with a target of 1.2939 are still relevant. Turning the Heikin Ashi indicator down will signal a manual reduction of long positions. Today it is recommended to conduct extremely cautious trading since it is difficult to say how the meeting of parliament will end.

Sell positions are recommended to be considered after the bears are fixed below the moving. In this case, you can expect the fall of the currency pair with the target of 1.2695.

In addition to the technical picture, you should also consider the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanations for illustrations:

The senior linear regression channel is the blue lines of the unidirectional movement.

The junior linear channel is the purple lines of the unidirectional movement.

CCI is the blue line in the indicator regression window.

The moving average (20; smoothed) is the blue line on the price chart.

Murray levels - multi-colored horizontal stripes.

Heikin Ashi is an indicator that colors bars in blue or purple.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR / USD. January 15. The trading system. "Regression Channels". All focus on the UK

4-hour timeframe

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Technical details:

The senior linear regression channel: direction - sideways.

The younger linear regression channel: direction - up.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - sideways.

CCI: -23.4851

The currency pair EUR / USD on Monday, January 14, was trading near the moving average line. There were no important macroeconomic publications that day. Moreover, the markets were clearly hiding in anticipation of the voting in the British Parliament under the plan of Theresa May. Today is the day that will determine the future fate of relations between the EU and the UK. Markets still do not believe that the parliament will take the initiative of Theresa May. May herself continues to exert pressure on parliament with regular speeches with warnings of almost apocalypse if parliament rejects its proposal. It can be understood; giving up Brexit would mean the end of her political career. What is waiting for the euro currency today and in the near future? We believe that the reaction to the Brexit vote today will certainly follow, but in the longer term, the effect of today will be leveled. Still, for the European Union, Brexit is of lesser importance. In the evening, Mario Draghi, the head of the ECB, will also give a talk, which can also potentially be very interesting and can influence the mood of traders. From a technical point of view, the upward trend remains on the instrument, as prices continue to be located slightly above the moving average.

Nearest support levels:

S1 - 1.1475

S2 - 1.1414

S3 - 1.1353

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 - 1.1536

R2 - 1.1597

R3 - 1.1658

Trading recommendations:

The currency pair EUR / USD is trying to resume an upward movement, as indicated by the indicator Heikin Ashi. Thus, today it is recommended to consider long positions with a target of 1.1536. However, today there may be sharp reversals and an increase in volatility due to Brexit voting.

Short positions can be viewed after fixing the price below the moving average with the target of 1.1414. However, precautions today should be. Therefore, it is recommended not to forget about stops and trade in small lots.

In addition to the technical picture, you should also consider the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanations for illustrations:

The senior linear regression channel is the blue lines of the unidirectional movement.

The younger linear regression channel is the purple lines of the unidirectional movement.

CCI - blue line in the indicator window.

The moving average (20; smoothed) is the blue line on the price chart.

Murray levels - multi-colored horizontal stripes.

Heikin Ashi is an indicator that colors bars in blue or purple.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR / USD: plan for the European session on January 15. Weak data could breakdown the euro

To open long positions on EUR / USD, you need:

Buyers yesterday did not manage to reverse the downtrend, but kept trading in the side channel, which leaves hope for the resumption of the upward trend, but much will depend on a number of fundamental statistics, which is expected today in the morning. At the moment, it is best to consider long positions in euro after the support level of 1.1455 is updated with the formation of a false breakdown on it or for a rebound from the larger area of 1.1428 and 1.1407. For a larger continuation of growth requires a breakthrough and consolidation above the resistance of 1.1490, which will lead to a test of a maximum of 1.1531 and 1.1569, where I recommend fixing the profits.

To open short positions on EUR / USD, you need:

The bears will continue to put pressure on the euro, and the main task will be a breakthrough of support at 1.1455, which will lead to a larger downward correction in the area of 1.1428 and 1.1407, where the lower limit of the downward channel passes. In the case of EUR / USD growth in the first half of the day, you can look at short positions on the false breakdown of the level of 1.1490, from which large sellers will return to the market, but this is subject to weak fundamental data for the eurozone. In the absence of a rapid decline from the above range, you can sell for a rebound from a maximum of 1.1531.

Indicator signals:

Moving Averages

Trade has moved to the area of 30-day and 50-day moving averages, which indicates the lateral nature of the market.

Bollinger bands

The volatility of the Bollinger Bands indicator is low, which does not give signals to enter the market.

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Description of indicators

MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow

MA (moving average) 30 days - green

MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9

Bollinger Bands 20

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Fundamental Analysis of USD/JPY for January 15, 2019

USD/JPY has been quite corrective at the edge of 108.50 price area after bouncing off the 104.50 support area recently. Traders are optimistic about USD despite downbeat economic reports published recently. So, USD managed to attract the market sentiment against JPY which might lead to certain USD gains in the coming days.

USD has been weighed down by the recent economic reports and mixed employment results which did weakened the currency. But investor confidence encouraged USD to sustain momentum against JPY. Today US PPI report is going to be published which is expected to decrease to -0.1% from the previous value of 0.1%, Core PPI is expected to decrease to 0.2% from the previous value of 0.3%, Empire State Manufacturing Index is expected to increase to 11.6 from the previous figure of 10.9, and IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism is expected to increase to 53.1 from the previous figure of 52.6. On Thursday, Unemployment Claims report is going to be published which is expected to have a negative result of growth to 218k from the previous figure of 216k and FOMC Member Quarles is scheduled to speak about further monetary policy. The US central bank is widely expected to take a pause in the cycle of monetary tightening in 2019 after four rate hikes in 2018.

On the JPY side, after the observance of Coming of Age Day today M2 Money Stock report was published with an increase to 2.4% as expected from the previous value of 2.3% and Prelim Machine Tool Orders report was published with a decrease to -18.3% from the previous value of -17.0%. Japan's government is currently taking interest in calculation of workers compensation in GDP and may probably revise the draft budget. Though it will hardly have a major impact on the overall growth of the economy, inaccurate wage data makes it difficult to assess or measure the improvements needed. Ahead of Governor Kuroda's speech on Thursday, JPY is going to stay flat before the upcoming economic reports in the coming days.

Meanwhile, both USD and JPY have been quite indecisive amid the economic data. The pair is expected to extend its indecision and correction in the coming days. Because of the upcoming event in Japan on Thursday, any positive outcome from Kuroda's speech is certainly bullish for JPY in the coming days before.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price is currently pushing higher above 108.50 area while also engulfing the previous price actions in the process. As the price closes above 108.50 with a daily candle today, further bullish pressure towards 110.50 is expected before it continues to push lower towards 105.00 area in the coming days. As the price remains below 110.50 with a daily close, the bearish bias is expected to continue further.

SUPPORT: 105.50, 108.50

RESISTANCE: 110.50, 111.50, 112.00

BIAS: BEARISH

MOMENTUM: VOLATILE

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The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Indicator analysis. Daily review for January 15, 2019 for the pair EUR / USD

Trend analysis (Fig. 1).

On Tuesday, the price will move up. The first upper target of 1.1535 is the recoil level of 23.6% (yellow dotted line).

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Fig. 1 (daily schedule).

Comprehensive analysis:

- indicator analysis - down;

- Fibonacci levels - up;

- volumes - up;

- candlestick analysis is neutral;

- trend analysis - up;

- Bollinger lines - up;

- weekly schedule - up.

General conclusion:

The price will move up on Tuesday. The first upper target of 1.1535 is the recoil level of 23.6% (yellow dotted line).

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis for EUR/USD for January 15, 2019

The EUR/USD pair is bouncing from the support area of 1.1430-1.1450. However, bulls are not out of danger. They will need to break out above the short-term bearish channel and eventually recapture 1.15.

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Yellow rectangles - trading range

Black line - important trend line support

Purple lines - bearish short-term channel

EUR/USD, as expected, has pulled back for a test. In order for this to be a back test rather than a failed breakout, we will need to see the prices bounce off this area and recapture 1.15. With a short-term lower low and lower high, we have seen the creation of a short-term bearish channel as shown on the chart above. Resistance is found at 1.15 and support at 1.1420. Bulls need to exit this channel and break through the next resistance and short-term previous high at 1.1540. This will confirm the pullback is over and the breakout remains, so our target is 1.17. If the prices continue to stay inside this channel, we should expect a breakout below 1.14 over the coming days.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Analysis of the divergence of EUR / USD for January 15. Monday's calm trades did not change anything

4h

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The currency pair EUR / USD reversed in favor of the European currency, not reaching the level of correction of 38.2% - 1.1446, and began the process of growth in the direction of the correctional level of 50.0% - 1.1517. The ripening divergences on January 15 are not seen in any indicator. Rebounding the pair from the Fibo level of 50.0% will allow traders to expect a reversal in favor of the US currency and the resumption of decline in the direction of the level of 38.2%. Closing the pair below the level of 38.2% will work in favor of continuing to fall in the direction of the next Fibo level of 23.6% - 1.1358.

The Fibo grid is built on extremes from September 24, 2018, and November 12, 2018.

Daily

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On the 24-hour chart, the currency pair quotes rebounded from the correction level of 100.0% - 1.1553 and began the process of falling in the direction of the Fibo level of 127.2% - 1.1285. Fixing the pair above the Fibo level of 100.0% can be interpreted as a reversal in favor of the euro currency and rely on the resumption of growth in the direction of the correction level of 76.4% - 1.1789. There are no ripening divergences on the current chart either.

The Fibo grid is built on extremums from November 7, 2017, and February 16, 2018.

Recommendations to traders:

You can make purchases of the EUR / USD currency pair with a target of 1.1517 and a Stop Loss order under the Fibo level of 38.2% if the pair bounces off the level of 1.1446.

New sales of the EUR / USD currency pair will be possible with the goal of 1.1446 with a Stop Loss order above the Fibo level of 50.0% if the pair bounces off the level of 1.1517.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis for Gold for January 15, 2019

Today we take a look at the weekly chart in Gold since 2007. Gold is in a short-term bullish trend and we talked about short-term targets of $1,310-20 and the possibility that this up trend could continue towards its major long-term resistance area of $1,350-60. But what should we expect if this level is broken?

analytics5c3d89344b901.png

Green line -long-term support

Red line - major trend line resistance

Gold price has respected the green trend line support and bounced off of it and is now heading towards the red trend line resistance found around $1,350. A break above this area will lead to a move towards $1,550-$1,660. However I believe it is more probable to see an initial rejection and pull back at the $1,350 resistance area, before making a break out. Of course this bullish scenario gets cancelled if price breaks below the green trend line support. Then we will be talking for a move below $1,000 towards $700-800 or lower.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Analysis of the divergence of GBP / USD for January 15. Difficulties with passing the level of 1.2916

4h

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The currency pair GBP / USD on the 4-hour chart continues the growth process and completed the close above the correction level of 50.0% - 1.2869. As a result, on January 15, the growth of quotations can be continued in the direction of the next Fibo level of 61.8% - 1.2970. Rebounding the pair from this level will allow traders to expect a reversal in favor of the US dollar and a slight decline in the direction of the correction level of 50.0%. There is no indicator of the emerging divergences today.

The Fibo grid is built on extremes from September 20, 2018, and January 3, 2019.

1h

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On the hourly chart, the quotes performed growth to the correctional level of 127.2% - 1.2916 and a little later return to it. A new rebound from this Fibo level will again allow us to count on a turn in favor of the American currency and a slight drop in quotations in the direction of the correction level of 100.0% - 1.2815. Fixing the pair above the Fibo level of 127.2% will increase the likelihood of further growth in the direction of the next correction level of 161.8% - 1.3048.

The Fibo grid is built on extremes from December 31, 2018, and January 3, 2019.

Recommendations to traders:

New purchases of the GBP / USD currency pair can be made with the target of 1.3048 and a Stop Loss order below the level of 127.2% if the pair closes above the level of 1.2916 (hourly chart).

Sales of the GBP / USD currency pair can be carried out with a target of 1.2815 and a Stop Loss order above the level of 127.2% if the pair bounces off of the level of 1.2916 (hourly chart).

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP / USD: plan for the European session on January 15. The pound may rise after the decision on Brexit

To open long positions on GBP / USD, you need:

News that several members of the Conservative Party of Great Britain changed their mind yesterday and decided to support the Brexit agreement, which led to an increase in the pound, the upward potential of which is still limited by voting in parliament and its results. At the moment, buyers need to hold above the support level of 1.2868, and the formation of a false breakdown there will be a signal to open long positions in order to update the resistance at 1.2929. Breakthrough of this range will open a direct road to the maximum area of 1.2990 and 1.3064, where I recommend fixing the profits. In the case of a decrease in the pound under the support level of 1.2868, consider long positions best on a rebound between 1.2813 and 1.2758.

To open short positions on GBP / USD, you need:

An unsuccessful consolidation above the resistance level of 1.2929 will be the first signal for opening short positions in a pound, but the main task will be the breakdown and consolidation under the support level of 1.2868, which will collapse GBP / USD to the minimum area of 1.2813 and 1.2758, where I recommend fixing the profit. However, the situation may unfold regardless of technical analysis due to any Brexit scenario that is being discussed today in the UK Parliament. In the case of a further uptrend and a break of the high of 1.2929, it is best to consider short positions from the levels of 1.2990 and 1.3064.

Indicator signals:

Moving Averages

Trading takes place above the 30-day and 50-day moving, indicating the bullish nature of the market.

Bollinger bands

Volatility is very low, which does not give signals for entering the market.

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Description of indicators

MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow

MA (moving average) 30 days - green

MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9

Bollinger Bands 20

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The clouds are gathering over the financial markets

The economic statistics data released on Monday clearly indicate that the increased customs duties introduced by the United States have begun to have a negative impact on the Chinese economy. This forces many market participants to believe that Beijing will be more compliant with America in the matter of trade relations.

On the one hand, these expectations are supporting positive market sentiment, and on the other hand, a noticeable drop in export and import volumes in the "heavenly" in December is frightening, since the second largest economy in the world can also carry other countries and regions with its inhibition of growth.

According to the data presented, the volume of exports in annual terms in December fell by 4.4% against the growth for the previous reporting period of 5.4% and an increased forecast of 3.0%. At the same time, the decline in imports was even stronger. The index of imports in China fell by 7.6% against a year earlier growth of 3.0% and expectations for a rise of 5.0%. It should be noted that the trade balance increased over the period under review to 57.06 billion dollars from 44.71 billion dollars, with a growth forecast to 51.53 billion dollars. The growth in the trade balance was strongest in the last two years.

In the wake of these generally alarming statistics, the mood of the market players was still spoiled, and the demand for risky assets went down. On this wave on Monday in the negative territory, the stock markets closed.

In the foreign exchange market, the situation has stabilized, although in general, the US dollar remains under pressure. The main reasons that contribute to this are the expectations of a pause in raising interest rates by the Fed this year, or perhaps even stopping the rate-raising process altogether, as well as the ongoing shutdown of US governments in the wake of a steady political struggle between D. Trump and his opponents in America.

Today, the market's attention will be drawn to a vote in the British Parliament on the country's exit from the EU, which will be presented by Prime Minister T. May. It is assumed that she will be rejected by the deputies, which should have a negative impact on the sterling rate, but if the opposite happens, we should expect it to grow significantly, and not only in tandem with the US dollar.

Forecast of the day:

The currency pair GBP / USD in the wake of the Brexit vote results in the British Parliament can either rise or fall. May's adoption plan may push the pair up to 1.3000. At the same time, if this does not happen, the pair may decline to 1.2800.

The currency pair EUR / USD, as well as GBP / USD, may respond to the outcome of the vote in Britain. Positive news will contribute to its growth to 1.1560, and negative to decline to 1.1425.

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Trading plan for 15/01/2018

Sentiment in Asia on Tuesday is improving, because this time information from China is among the good ones. Beijing has signaled new support measures for the economy. The stock market shines green, bu the currency market JPY is loosing and AUD and NZD are strong.

On Tuesday, the 15th of January, the key event of the day is the UK is the Brexit decision vote in the House of Commons that will affect the Pound this way or another. Other interesting data are Spanish CPI, US PPI data and Eurozone Current Account data. There is a speech from Mario Draghi scheduled at 10:30 am GMT as well.

GBP/USD analysis for 15/01/2019:

On Tuesday, the parliament votes on adopting the Brexit agreement project and all indicate that the government plan will be rejected. Then the government will have 3 days to work out a plan B with the risk of a vote of no confidence submitted by the Labor Party, the creation of a referendum and the postponement of the Brexit date (March 29). However the chances of Brexit are decreasing without agreed terms, it is hard to expect a pound appreciation in the face of a political muddle.

Let's now take a look at the GBP/USD technical picture at the H4 time frame. The market is trading just below the technical resistance at the level of 1.2928 which is a local high as well. In the case of an extended rally, the next target is seen at the level of 1.3000, which will act as a magnet for the price. On the other hand, any failure to break out above the local high will likely result in a down move towards the technical support at the level of 1.2839 - 1.2795. If this support zone is violated, then the next support is seen at the level of 1.2705.

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Fractal analysis of major currency pairs for January 15

Dear colleagues.

For the currency pair Euro / Dollar, the level of 1.1456 is the key support for the top and we expect the resumption of the upward movement after the breakdown of 1.1516. For the currency pair Pound / Dollar, we expect a movement to the level of 1.2960 and the level of 1.2779 is the key support. For the currency pair Dollar / Franc, the price is in the correction zone of the rising structure of January 10 and the level of 0.9767 is the key support. For the currency pair Dollar / Yen, the price is in the area of the downward structure of January 8 and we expect further downward movement after the breakdown of 107.96 and the level of 108.70 is the key support. For the currency pair Euro / Yen, we expect further uptrend after the breakdown of 125.15. For the currency pair Pound / Yen, we also continue to follow the development of the upward structure from January 3 and the level of 139.50 is the key resistance.

Forecast for January 15:

Analytical review of H1-scale currency pairs:

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For the currency pair Euro / Dollar, the key levels on the H1 scale are 1.1660, 1.1625, 1.1578, 1.1554, 1.1516, 1.1456, 1.1427 and 1.1404. Here, the price is in deep correction from the rising structure on January 2 and forms the potential for the bottom of January 10. The continuation of the upward movement is expected after the breakdown of 1.1516. In this case, the first target is 1.1554. The short-term upward movement is possible in the range of 1.1554 - 1.1578 and the breakdown of the latter value should be accompanied by a pronounced upward movement. Here, the target is 1.1625. The potential value for the top is considered the level of 1.1660, after reaching which we expect a consolidated movement, as well as a departure to a correction.

The level of 1.1456 is the key support for the top. Its price passage will have to develop the downward movement. In this case, the first goal is 1.1427 and in the range of 1.1427 - 1.1404 is the consolidation.

The main trend is the ascending structure of January 2, the stage of deep correction.

Trading recommendations:

Buy 1.1516 Take profit: 1.1554

Buy 1.1580 Take profit: 1.1625

Sell: 1.1452 Take profit: 1.1430

Sell: Take profit:

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For the currency pair Pound / Dollar, the key levels on the H1 scale are 1.3105, 1.3006, 1.2960, 1.2875, 1.2813, 1.2779, 1.2726 and 1.2674. Here, we are following the ascending structure of January 2. An upward movement is expected after the breakdown of 1.2875. In this case, the target is 1.2960 and in the range of 1.2960 - 1.3006 is the price consolidation. The potential value for the top is considered the level of 1.3105, upon reaching which we expect a rollback downwards.

The short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 1.2813 - 1.2779 and the breakdown of the latter value will lead to a prolonged correction. Here, the target is 1.2726 and this level is the key support for the top. Its breakdown will have to form a downward structure. In this case, the potential target is 1.2674.

The main trend is the ascending structure of January 2.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.2877 Take profit: 1.2960

Buy: 1.2962 Take profit: 1.3004

Sell: 1.2813 Take profit: 1.2780

Sell: 1.2777 Take profit: 1.2728

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For the currency pair Dollar / FranC, the key levels on the H1 scale are 0.9951, 0.9930, 0.9879, 0.9857, 0.9816, 0.9796 and 0.9767. Here, the price forms a pronounced ascending structure from January 10 and is currently in the zone of initial conditions. The short-term upward movement, possibly in the range of 0.9857 - 0.9879 and the breakdown of the latter value should be accompanied by a pronounced upward movement. Here, the target is 0.9930. The potential value for the top is considered the level of 0.9951, upon reaching which we expect a rollback downwards.

The short-term downward movement, as well as consolidation, are possible in the range of 0.9816 - 0.9796. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to a prolonged correction. Here, the goal is 0.9767 and this level is the key support for the upward structure.

The main trend is the formation of the ascending structure from January 10.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 0.9857 Take profit: 0.9876

Buy: 0.9882 Take profit: 0.9930

Sell: 0.9816 Take profit: 0.9798

Sell: 0.9794 Take profit: 0.9768

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For the currency pair Dollar / Yen, the key levels on the scale of H1 are 108.69, 108.47, 108.29, 107.96, 107.66 and 107.25. Here, we are following the descending structure of January 8 on the scale of H1. We expect the downward movement to continue after the breakdown of 107.96. In this case, the target is 107.66 and price consolidation is near this level. A potential value for the bottom is considered to be the level of 107.25, a pronounced movement to which is expected after the breakdown of 107.65.

The short-term upward movement is possible in the range of 108.47 - 108.69 and the breakdown of the latter value will have to develop an upward trend. Here, the potential target is 109.08, up to this level, we expect the structure to be expressed for the top.

The main trend is the downward structure of January 8.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 108.49 Take profit: 108.69

Buy: 108.72 Take profit: 109.06

Sell: 107.96 Take profit: 107.68

Sell: 107.64 Take profit: 107.27

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For the currency pair Canadian dollar / Dollar, the key levels on the H1 scale are 1.33.95, 1.3320., 1.3271, 1.3201, 1.3150 and 1.3065. Here, we continue to monitor the downward structure of December 31. At the moment, the price is in the correction and in the range of 1.3201 - 1.3150, we expect a short-term downward movement, as well as consolidation. The potential value for the bottom is considered the level of 1.3065, after reaching which we expect a rollback to the correction.

The short-term upward movement is possible in the range of 1.3271 - 1.3320 and the breakdown of the latter value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the target is 1.3395 and this level is the key support for the downward structure.

The main trend is the downward cycle of December 31, the stage of correction.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.3271 Take profit: 1.3320

Buy: 1.3330 Take profit: 1.3395

Sell: 1.3201 Take profit: 1.3155

Sell: 1.3145 Take profit: 1.3070

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For the currency pair Australian dollar / Dollar, the key levels on the H1 scale are 0.7391, 0.7313, 0.7270, 0.7238, 0.7180, 0.7152 and 0.7113. Here, we are following the ascending structure of January 3. The short-term upward movement is possible in the range of 0.7238 - 0.7270 and the breakdown of the latter value will lead to the movement to the level of 0.7313, near which consolidation is expected. The potential value for the top is considered to be the level of 0.7391 and we expect a movement to this level after the breakdown of 0.7315.

The short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 0.7180 - 0.7152 and the breakdown of the latter value will lead to a prolonged correction. Here, the target is 0.7113 and this level is the key support for the upward structure.

The main trend is the ascending structure of January 3.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 0.7238 Take profit: 0.7270

Buy: 0.7273 Take profit: 0.7312

Sell: 0.7180 Take profit: 0.7155

Sell: 0.7150 Take profit: 0.7120

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For the currency pair Euro / Yen, the key levels on the H1 scale are 127.22, 126.70, 125.79, 125.15, 124.22, 123.74 and 123.05. Here, we continue to monitor the ascending structure of January 3. An upward movement is expected after the breakdown of 125.15. In this case, the target is 125.79 and price consolidation is near this level. The breakdown of 125.80 must be accompanied by a pronounced upward movement. Here, the goal is 126.70. The potential value for the top is considered the level of 127.22, after reaching which we expect a consolidated movement, as well as a rollback to the top.

The short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 124.22 - 123.74 and the breakdown of the latter value will lead to a prolonged correction. Here, the target is 123.05 and this level is the key support for the upward structure.

The main trend is the ascending structure of January 3.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 125.15 Take profit: 125.76

Buy: 125.82 Take profit: 126.70

Sell: 124.20 Take profit: 123.78

Sell: 123.70 Take profit: 123.10

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For the currency pair Pound / Yen, the key levels on the H1 scale are 141.90, 140.50, 139.49, 137.49, 136.81 and 135.70. Here, we are following the development of the ascending structure of January 3. The continuation of the movement upward is expected after the breakdown of 139.50. In this case, the first target is 140.50 and consolidation is near this level. The potential value for the top is considered the level of 141.90, upon reaching which we expect a rollback downwards.

The short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 137.49 - 136.81 and the breakdown of the latter value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the goal is 135.70 and this level is the key support for the top.

The main trend is the ascending structure of January 3.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 139.55 Take profit: 140.50

Buy: 140.55 Take profit: 141.60

Sell: 137.45 Take profit: 136.85

Sell: 136.75 Take profit: 136.00

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