Trading plan for the US session on July 6 EUR/USD

To open long positions on EURUSD it is required:

The repeat resistance test of 1.1720, which sellers held in the morning, could lead to a breakdown of this level with a further exit to the highs around 1.1778 and 1.1810, where it is recommended taking profits. In the case of a decline in the euro in the second half of the day after data on the labor market in the US, one can return to buying in the range of 1.1683, and the best is on a rebound from 1.1651.

To open short positions on EURUSD it is required:

It is best to return to short positions on the Euro after the formation of a false breakout at the resistance level of 1.1720, with an additional signal in the form of a good report on the US labor market. If the euro rises above 1.1720, you can sell for a rebound from a new high at 1.1778. A decline below 1.1683 could lead to a larger pressure on the pair, which will collapse to a minimum in the area of 1.1651 and 1.1622.

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Description of indicators

  • MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow
  • MA (moving average) 30 days - green
  • MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA
  • Bollinger Bands 20
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Analysis of GBP/USD Divergences as of July 6. Bearish divergences led to the pound sterling

4h

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The GBP/USD pair on the 4-hour chart reversed in favor of the US dollar and began the drop process in the direction of the correction level of 200.0% to 1.3048, after the bearish divergence of the CCI indicator. No new maturing divergences are observed on July 6. Passing the last peak of the divergence will allow to expect the resumption of growth towards the corrective level of 161.8% - 1.3301. The consolidation of quotations above the level of Fibo 161.8% will increase the chances of further growth.

The Fibo grid is built on extremes from March 1, 2018 and April 17, 2018.

1h

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On the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair reversed in favor of the US currency and fell to the Fibo level of 61.8%, after the bearish divergence of the CCI indicator. Fixing the pair under the correction level of 61.8% will increase the probability of further falling in the direction of the next Fibo level of 50.0% - 1.3182. Quit of quotations from the level of Fibo 61.8% will allow to expect a turn in favor of the English currency and a return to the correctional level of 76.4% - 1.3252.

The Fibo grid is built on the extremes of June 22, 2018 and June 28, 2018.

Recommendations for traders:

Buying of the GBP/USD pair can be carried out for the purpose of 1.3252 and a Stop Loss order under the correction level of 1.3213, if there is a retreat from the Fibo level of 61.8% (hourly chart).

Selling the GBP/USD pair will be possible with targets of 1.3182 and 1.3150 and a Stop Loss order above the correction level of 61.8% if the closing is under the Fibo level of 1.3213.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP/USD. 6 July. Mark Carney fears a trade war

4-hour timeframe

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Amplitude of the last 5 days (high-low): 145p - 114p - 92p - 79p - 71p.

The average amplitude for the last 5 days is 100p (100p).

The British currency in the first half of the day showed growth against the background of not too optimistic macroeconomic data from America, but closer to the night the advantage again shifted to the dollar.Thus, at the end of the trading day, the pound sterling fell by several points.The Fed's minutes can be interpreted in two ways. On the one hand, there was no outright negative in it, and the fed's plans to raise the rate remain in force, on the other hand, FOMC members are afraid of a trade war. Also there are concerns about the growing tension between the US, EU and China, and the Bank of England Governor Mark Carney. In his July 5 speech, he said that duties imposed by the United States against trading partners and retaliatory sanctions can put serious pressure on the growth of the world economy in the near future. Thus, Carney believes that the trade war will necessarily affect the volume of production, the volume of trade operations between the countries involved in the conflict. According to Carney's calculations, only America can lose 2.5% of GDP from sanctions that are imposed or will be introduced by China and the European Union. And the global decline in GDP due to trade taxes may decrease by 1%. Also, the head of the British regulator noted that the UK economy will grow in line with previously announced forecasts, despite the trade war, noting also that in the next year or two, it will probably be necessary to raise the key rate. Karni believes that the economic downturn in the first half of 2018 is a temporary phenomenon, so further the country is expected to accelerate growth. However, we believe the outlook for a rate hike in the next year or two is nothing more than an attempt to calm the markets. If there is a new recession in the UK, Carney can easily say that with the increase in rates will have to wait. Thus, the key role in this matter will be played by macroeconomic statistics in the next 2-3 months.

Trading recommendations:

At the moment, the GBP/USD currency pair is being adjusted. Thus, to open new longs, it is recommended to wait for the correction to be completed, after which it is recommended to open buy positions with the target of 1.3281. The signal to the end of the correction can be a MACD turn upward.

Shorts can be considered not before fixing the price below the cloud Ichimoku, as now the movement is corrective, moreover - the correction may be completed in the next few hours. Thus, the opening of shorts is now associated with high risks.

In addition to the technical picture, one should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanations to the illustration:

Ichimoku Indicator:

Tenkan-sen is a red line.

Kijun-sen is a blue line.

Senkou Span A is a light brown dotted line.

Senkou Span B - a light purple dotted line.

Chinkou Span is a green line.

Bollinger Bands Indicator:

3 yellow lines.

MACD indicator:

Red line and histogram with white bars in the indicator window.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Fractal analysis for major currency pairs as of July 6

Dear colleagues.

For the EUR / USD pair, the continuation of the upward movement is expected after the breakdown of 1.1718. The level of 1.1633 is the key support. For the GBP / USD pair, we continue to monitor the upward structure of June 28. The continuation of the upward movement is expected after the breakdown at 1.3274. For the USD / CHF pair, follow the downward structure of June 28. For the USD / JPY pair, we follow the upward structure of June 26. The development of this level is expected after the breakdown of 111.10. For the EUR / JPY pair, the continuation of the upward movement from June 28 is expected after the breakdown of 129.90. For the GBP / JPY pair, the price forms an upward structure from June 28. The development of this level is expected after the breakdown of 146.70. Currently, the price is in the zone of initial conditions.

The forecast for July 6:

Analytical review of currency pairs in the scale of H1:

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For the EUR / USD pair, the key levels on the scale of H1 are: 1.1807, 1.1771, 1.1718, 1.1684, 1.1633, 1.1610 and 1.1578. Here, we continue to monitor the formation of the upward structure of June 28. The continuation of the upward movement is expected after the breakdown of 1.1684. In this case, the target is 1.1718. Near this level is the consolidation of the price. The breakdown at the level of 1.1718 should be accompanied by a pronounced upward movement. The target here is 1.1771. The potential value for the top is the level of 1.1807. Upon reaching this level, we expect a pullback downwards.

Short-term downward movement is possible in the area of 1.1633-1.1610. The breakdown of the last value will lead to in-depth correction. Here, the target is 1.1578. This level is the key support for the upward structure.

The main trend is the initial conditions for the top of June 28.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.1684 Take profit: 1.1715

Buy 1.1722 Take profit: 1.1770

Sell: 1.1631 Take profit: 1.1611

Sell: 1.1608 Take profit: 1.1580

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For the GBP / USD pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are 1.3376, 1.3333, 1.3274, 1.3246, 1.3198, 1.3172 and 1.3129. Here, we follow the upward structure of June 28. Short-term upward movement is expected in the area of 1.3246 - 1.3274. The breakdown of the last value should be accompanied by a pronounced upward movement. Here, the target is 1.3333. The potential value for the top is the level of 1.3376. Upon reaching this level, we expect a pullback downwards.

Short-term downward movement is expected in the range of 1.3198 - 1.3172. The breakdown of the last value will lead to in-depth correction. Here, the target is 1.3129. This level is the key support for the upward structure.

The main trend is the formation of the upward structure of June 28.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.3246 Take profit: 1.3272

Buy: 1.3276 Take profit: 1.3333

Sell: 1.3197 Take profit: 1.3174

Sell: 1.3170 Take profit: 1.3133

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For the USD / CHF pair, the key levels on the scale of H1 are: 0.9967, 0.9942, 0.9927, 0.9902, 0.9888, 0.9861, 0.9842 and 0.9816. Here, we continue to follow the downward structure of June 28. Passing by the price of the noise range at 0.9902 - 0.9888 should be accompanied by a pronounced movement. In this case, the target is 0.9861. In the area of 0.9861 - 0.9842 is the consolidation of the price. The potential value for the bottom is the level of 0.9816. Upon reaching this level, we expect a pullback upward.

Short-term upward movement is possible in the area of 0.9927 - 0.9942. The breakdown of the last value will lead to in-depth correction. Here, the target is 0.9967. This level is the key support for the downward structure.

The main trend is the formation of a downward structure from June 28.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 0.9927 Take profit: 0.9940

Buy: 0.9944 Take profit: 0.9962

Sell: 0.9902 Take profit: 0.9890

Sell: 0.9888 Take profit: 0.9865

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For the USD / JPY pair, the key levels on a scale are: 112.00, 111.58, 111.39, 111.09, 110.52, 110.25 and 109.96. Here, the price is in deep correction from the upwards structure on June 26. The continuation of the development of the upward cycle from June 26 is expected after the breakdown of 111.10. In this case, the target is 111.39. In the area of 111.39 - 111.58 is the consolidation of the price. The potential value for the top is the level 112.00. After reaching this level, we expect a pullback downwards.

Consolidated movement is possible in the area of 110.52 - 110.25. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to the development of a downward structure. In this case, the first potential target is 109.96.

The main trend is the upward structure of June 26, the correction stage.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 111.10 Take profit: 111.36

Buy: 111.60 Take profit: 112.00

Sell: 110.25 Take profit: 110.00

Sell: Take profit:

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For the CAD / USD pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.3286, 1.3233, 1.3193, 1.3131, 1.3071, 1.2938 and 1.2872. Here, we follow the formation of a downward structure from June 27. Short-term downward movement is expected in the range of 1.3131 - 1.3071. The breakdown of the last value will lead to the development of a pronounced movement towards the bottom. Here, the target is 1.2938. The potential value for the bottom is the level of 1.2872. From this level, we expect a rollback to the top.

Short-term upward movement is possible in the area of 1.3193 - 1.3233. The breakdown of the last value will lead to in-depth correction. Here, the target is 1.3286. This level is the key support for the bottom.

The main trend is the formation of a downward structure from June 27.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.3193 Take profit: 1.3231

Buy: 1.3235 Take profit: 1.3285

Sell: 1.3130 Take profit: 1.3073

Sell: 1.3068 Take profit: 1.2940

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For the AUD / USD pair, the key H1 scale levels are: 0.7538, 0.7502, 0.7478, 0.7428, 0.7369, 0.7346 and 0.7308. Here, we follow the formation of the upwards structure of July 2. The continuation of the upward movement is expected after the breakdown of 0.7430. In this case, the target is 0.7478. In the area of 0.7478 - 0.7502 is the consolidation of the price. The potential value for the top is the level of 0.7538. After reaching this level, we expect a pullback downwards.

Short-term downward movement is possible in the area of 0.7369 - 0.7346. The breakdown of the latter value lead to the development of a downward structure. Here, the target is 0.7308.

The main trend is the formation of the upwards structure of July 2.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 0.7430 Take profit: 0.7475

Buy: 0.7479 Take profit: 0.7500

Sell: 0.7368 Take profit: 0.7348

Sell: 0.7344 Take profit: 0.7310

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For the of EUR / JPY, the key levels on the scale of H1 are: 132.02, 131.20, 130.64, 129.90, 128.80, 128.34, 127.74 and 127.06. Here, the price has issued a pronounced structure for the upward movement of June 28. The continuation of the upward movement is expected after the breakdown of 129.90. In this case, the target is 130.64. In the area of 130.64 - 131.20 we expect short-term upward movement as well as the consolidation of the price. The potential value for the top is the level of 132.02. Upon reaching this level, we expect a pullback downwards.

Short-term downward movement is possible in the area of 128.80 - 128.34. The breakdown of the last value will lead to in-depth correction. Here, the target is 127.74. This level is the key support for the upward structure of June 28.

The main trend is the upward structure of June 28.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 129.90 Take profit: 130.60

Buy: 130.66 Take profit: 131.20

Sell: 128.80 Take profit: 128.38

Sell: 128.30 Take profit: 127.80

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For the GBP / JPY pair, the key levels on the scale of H1 are: 148.80, 148.10, 147.48, 146.67, 145.62, 145.11 and 144.52. Here, the price forms an upward structure from June 28. The continuation of the upward movement is expected after the breakdown of 146.67. In this case, the target is 147.48. In the area of 147.48 - 148.10 is the consolidation of the price. The potential value for the top is the level of 148.89. Upon reaching this level, we expect a pullback downwards.

Short-term downward movement is possible in the area of 145.62 - 145.11. The breakdown of the last value will lead to in-depth correction. Here, the target is 144.52. This level is the key support for the upward structure of June 28.

The main trend is the formation of the upward structure of June 28.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 146.68 Take profit: 147.45

Buy: 147.50 Take profit: 148.10

Sell: 145.60 Take profit: 145.14

Sell: 145.10 Take profit: 144.55

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Daily review of GOLD on 07.05.18. Ichimoku Indicator

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GOLD

In June, gold performed a correction decrease from the monthly Tenkan (1300.86) to the monthly Kijun (1248.78), while testing support for the lower boundary of the weekly cloud and the historic level in the area of 1240. The supports were noticed, and now we are seeing a corrective recovery. The depth of correction depends now on the importance and role of the supported supports, as their overcoming and consolidation under support opens up new, significant landmarks for the players. One of these targets will be a downward target for the breakdown of the weekly cloud, the execution of which can lead gold to the lows of the end of 2016 (1100-1150).

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During the upward correction, an upward target for the breakdown of the H1 cloud was worked out for the first target, and the resistance of the H4 cloud was met. The breakdown of the goal of H1 and the cloud of H4, now strengthened by the higher-tier levels (1264,32-77), opens new prospects for recovery. To the resistance of the higher halves 1264.77 - 1273.23 - 1278.55 - 1281.25 it will be possible to add the target to the breakdown of the H4 cloud. The center of attraction is now the zone 1254.92 - 1251.58 - 1248.78. The key support is the district 1240.

Indicator parameters:

all time intervals 9 - 26 - 52

Color of indicator lines:

Tenkan (short-term trend) - red,

Kijun (medium-term trend) - green,

Fibo Kijun is a green dotted line,

Chinkou is gray,

clouds: Senkou Span B (SSB, long-term trend) - blue,

Senkou Span A (SSA) - pink.

Color of additional lines:

support and resistance MN - blue, W1 - green, D1 - red, H4 - pink, H1 - gray,

horizontal levels (not Ichimoku) - brown,

trend lines - purple.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Control zones EURUSD 07/06/18

Yesterday there was a test of a weekly short circuit 1.1729-1.1711, which made it possible to realize the first phase of the upward momentum by 100%. Further growth will depend on whether the pair can gain a foothold above 1.1729.

The upward movement remains a priority despite the appearance of the proposal after the test of the weekly short-circuit 1.1729-1.1711. On the way down the first support is the control zone 1/4 1.1674-1.1670. Defining support is within control zone 1/2 1.1628-1.1619. While the pair is trading above this zone, the upward movement will remain impulsive. The most profitable buying prices are at the level of 1.1628, so the next growth target could become control zone 1/2 1.1830-1.1821, which makes the risk-to-profit ratio profitable.

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The potential profit can be 150 and 200 points from the control zones. Given the fact that the size of the stop-loss should not exceed 25-35pp, the risk-to-profit ratio is 1 to 5 or higher. This makes buying profitable at a distance.

In order for the upward movement to be canceled, it will be necessary to absorb yesterday's growth and consolidate below the control zone 1/2 1.1628-1.1619. This will allow to consider selling at the beginning of next week. The medium-term goal of the fall will be the June lows, which will allow us to speak of a profitable risk-to-profit ratio for selling below the level of 1.1619. It is important to note that the current phase is a mid-term flight, which indicates the possibility of the occurrence of a large supply within a weekly short-term period of 1.1729-1.1711.

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Daytime CP- daytime control zone. The zone formed by important data from the futures market, which change several times a year.

Weekly CP- weekly control zone. The zone formed by important futures market marks, which change several times a year.

Monthly CP-monthly control zone. The zone, which is a reflection of the average volatility over the past year.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Control zones GBPUSD 07/06/18

The other day, a reversal pattern has emerged, which indicates a new upward priority. The consolidation above the NCP 1/2 1.3206-1.3192 makes it possible to buy from the nearest support zones.

Yesterday's closing of the American session above the NCP 1/2 1.3206-1.3192 makes it possible to talk about changing the priority on the upstream. This opens up opportunities to buy from NCC 1/4 1.3202-1.3195 and NKZ 1/2 1.3130-1.3116. The ratio of risk to profit when buying from NCC 1/4, taking into account the take-profit setting for the weekly short-term 1.3336-1.3365 is 1 to 6. If the pair can fall to the level of 1.3130, then the most favorable prices for buying will be there. Both models must be considered separately from each other with stops tied to the zones.

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The pair is trading within the medium-term flat, which indicates the possibility of a large offer in the test of the weekly short-term and the retest of the significant June extremum formed in the twenties. Short trades are sidelined and are complementary in the case of large deals at the current levels. The first possibility of selling may appear today if the US session closes below the level of 1.3195. This will indicate the formation of a deeper correction model, but it will be possible to consider such a trade only on Monday.

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Daytime CP- daytime control zone. The zone formed by important data from the futures market, which change several times a year.

Weekly CP - weekly control zone. The zone formed by important futures market marks, which change several times a year.

Monthly CP - monthly control zone. The zone, which is a reflection of the average volatility over the past year.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

BITCOIN Analysis for July 6, 2018

Bitcoin has been quite indecisive and low on liquidity at the edge of $6,500 area for a few days now which is still expected to push higher towards $8,000 area in the coming days. As recently more big names and countries like South Korea approving Cryptocurrency Exchanges as Financial Institutions, the Crypto industry as well as Bitcoin is expected to gain value in the future. Though the market is currently indecisive as the price remains above $6,500 area the bullish bias is expected to continue. As of the current scenario, dynamic levels like 20 EMA, Tenkan and Kijun lines are holding the price as support which is expected to increase the bullish momentum with certain extent leading to further bullish pressure in the pair with a target towards $8,000 in the future.

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The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Analysis of EUR / USD Divergences for July 6. The dollar continues to lose ground

4H

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The EUR / USD pair cleared the Fibo level of 61.8% at 1.1639 on the 4-hour chart and the growth to the correctional level of 38.2% at 1.1721. Exit of quotations from the level of correction where 38.2% already worked in favor of the US currency and the pair is successfully returned to the 50.0% level of Fibo at 1.1680. Quit of quotations from the correction level of 50.0% on July 6 will allow us to expect a turnaround in favor of the Fibo level of 38.2%. The consolidation of the euro, major pair rate, under the correction level of 50.0% will increase the chances of further falling in the direction of the next level of 61.8% Fibo at 1.1639.

The Fibo grid is built on extremes from May 29, 2018 and June 14, 2018.

Daily

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On the 24-hour chart, the growth of the EUR / USD pair quotation continues in the direction of the correction level of 76.4% at 1.1789. The maturing bearish divergence of the CCI. Her education will allow you to count on a reversal in favor of the US dollar and the return of the pair to the Fibo level of 100.0% at 1.1553. Quit of quotations from the correction level of 76.4% will similarly work in favor of the US currency. Fixing the pair above the Fibo level of 76.4% will increase the likelihood of continued growth to the next correction level of 61.8% at 1.1938.

The Fibo grid is formed on the boundaries of November 7, 2017 and February 16, 2018.

Recommendations for traders:

It is possible to buy the EUR / USD pair with a target of 1.1721 and if there is a retreat from the correction level of 1.1680, a Stop Loss level should be placed below the 50.0% Fibo level.

It is possible to sell the EUR / USD pair with the target of 1.1639 and if there is a close at the correcting level of 50.0%, a Stop Loss order should be above the level of 1.1680.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Fundamental Analysis of EUR/CAD for July 6, 2018

EUR/CAD has been slightly bullish recently trying to break above 1.5350 area with a daily close. CAD has been the dominant currency in the pair recently which is expected to continue further as per market condition and context of economic reports published.

EUR has been struggling with the BREXIT and recently formed Trade War tensions for which it is underperforming in certain segments. This week EUR has been quite mixed with the economic reports which helped the currency to sustain the momentum but it was not as impulsive as expected earlier. Today EUR German Industrial Production report was published with an increase to 2.6% from the previous negative value of -1.3% which was expected to be at 0.3%, French Trade Balance showed further decrease to -6.0B from the previous figure of -5.2B which was expected to be at -5.1B and Italian Retail Sales also showed certain increase to 0.8% from the previous value of -0.6% which was expected to be at 0.4%.

On the other hand, today CAD high impact economic reports are going to be published which is expected to inject certain volatility in the pair. Today CAD Employment Change report is going to be published which is expected to significantly increase to 22.3k from the previous figure of -7.5k, Trade Balance is expected to decrease to -2.2B from the previous figure of -1.9B and Unemployment Rate is expected to be unchanged at 5.8%.

As of the current scenario, ahead of the CAD high impact economic reports, EUR has been quite mixed with the results though capable of sustaining the bullish momentum but not quite to stop an impulsive counter. To sum up, if CAD economic reports perform well today with better than expected or equal as expected then CAD is expected to continue its gains over EUR further in the coming days.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price is currently residing above the 1.5350 area but inside the Kumo Cloud resistance which does provide a certain indication of price pushing lower in the coming days. Apart from it, the price has developed certain Bearish Divergence pressure which is also providing an indication of further bearish momentum in the pair. As the price remains below 1.55 area with a daily close, the bearish bias is expected to continue further.

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The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Fundamental Analysis of AUD/JPY for July 6, 2018

AUD/JPY has been quite corrective and volatile above the support area of 80.50-81.50 for a few days in a row. The price is now expected to climb higher towards 83.50 area in the coming days. The mixed economic reports from Japan are the main setback for JPY weakness against AUD.

Today, AIG Construction Index report was published with an increase to 56.0 from the previous figure of 54.0 which helped the currency to sustain the bullish momentum and push higher after the recent unchanged Cash Rate at 1.50%.

On the JPY side, today Household Spending report showed a significant decrease to -3.9% from the previous deficit of -1.3% which was expected to be at -1.5%, Average Cash Earnings increased to 2.1% from the previous value of 0.6% which was expected to be at 0.9%, and Leading Indicators showed a slight increase to 106.9% from the previous value of 106.2% which was expected to be at 106.5%.

As for the current scenario, JPY has been quite weak amid the economic reports recently compared to AUD. AUD is expected to gain further momentum over JPY in the coming days. Though the gains might be medium-term, gaining momentum will help AUD to show resilience further if Australia provides consistent positive economic reports to support the aussie's gains.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price is currently residing just above the support area of 80.50-81.50 area from where it is expected to push higher towards 83.50 area. Currently, the price is being held by the dynamic level of 20 EMA, though it might not be a big concern as Bullish Continuation Divergence is backing the upcoming bullish momentum in the pair. As the price remains above 80.50 with a daily close, the bullish bias is expected to continue further.

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The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

AUD/USD analysis for July 06, 2018

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Recently, AUD/USD has been trading downwards. As I expected, the price tested the level of 0.7417. According to the H1 time - frame, I found a potential end of the expanded flat downward correction, which is a sign that selling looks risky. I also found a breakout of the suppy trendline in the background, which is another sign of strength. My advice is to watch for potential buying opportunities. The upward targets are set at the price of 0.7470 and at the price of 0.7540.

Resistance levels: R1: 0.7410R2: 0.7432R3: 0.7456

Support levels: S1: 0.7362S2: 0.7338S3: 0.7315

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential buying opportunities

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Positive news from the US will support the dollar

Trades in Europe on the stock markets are on a positive note. It seems that the "duck", launched by the Bloomberg news agency announced that some ECB members consider it necessary to raise interest rates before the end of 2019. Some investors are convinced of this.

It is known that the media, including specialized ones, such as Bloomberg or CNBC, manipulate the markets, throwing in either unverified news or openly false, which leads to significant movements in world markets in general and in foreign currency in particular. A similar picture occurred during the wave of the above-mentioned news. Against this background, the euro was supported and sharply higher against the US dollar. This was also facilitated by the publication of positive data from Germany.

According to the data provided, the volume of industrial orders rose sharply by 2.6% in May against expectations of an increase of 1.1% in April. Although it was an upward revision, it came out negative at minus 1.6%. Yet, the growth of the Euro against this background was limited. iven the general picture that has developed in the markets so far, we believe that the euro has no growth potential on domestic news, as the ECB's position on the prospects for changing the course of monetary policy remains the same and soft. In addition, the instability of the political situation in the Fed should be taken into account, despite the fact that Chancellor Merkel has managed to extinguish the fire of discontent with her policy in the government coalition. Considering this, we consider it necessary to sell the euro for a significant growth, primarily against the US dollar.

Today, all market attention will be turned to the release of data on employment in the private sector from ADP, as well as, to the index of business activity in the non-manufacturing sector (ISM) in the United States. It is expected that the US economy will get 190,000 in June against the growth of 178,000 in May. the value of the index of business activity in the non-production sector will drop to 58.3 points in June against the value of 58.6 points in May. In addition, of course, it will be interesting to publish the minutes of the June Fed meeting on monetary policy. If he confirms the firm desire of the regulator to raise interest rates this year four times, rather than three, as previously thought, it could push the dollar to local growth resumption.

Forecast of the day:

The EUR / USD pair declines after sharp speculative growth. A drop below 1.1690 could lead to a further drop in to 1.1600 amid positive news from the US.

The USD/CAD pair is above the level of 1.3125. The decline will be resumed if the data on oil reserves in the US show a noticeable drop. Overcoming the level of 1.3125 against this background may lead to a decline towards 1.3050.

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Fundamental Analysis of NZD/USD for July 6, 2018

NZD/USD has been quite impulsive with the bullish gains recently which lead the price to retest the support area of 0.68-0.69 area in the process. Ahead of the upcoming high impact USD economic reports to be published today, the pair is expected to be quite volatile in the process.

NZD has been quite worse with the performance of recently published economic reports including NZIER Business Confidence showing greater deficit to -20 from the previous figure of -11 and ANZ Commodity Price also decreasing to -1.0% from the previous value of 1.5%. As of the recent worse reports, market sentiment diversified their momentum towards USD ahead of the high impact USD reports this week.

On the USD side, having a certain optimistic approach from the FOMC Meeting despite the recent Trade War tensions, USD is expected to be quite positive. Today, a USD Average Hourly Earnings report is going to be published which is expected to be unchanged at 0.3%, Non-Farm Employment Change is expected to decrease to 195k from the previous figure of 223k and Unemployment Rate is expected to be unchanged at 3.8%. Moreover, USD Trade Balance report is also going to be published today which is expected to increase to -43.6B from the previous deficit of -46.2B and Natural Gas Storage report is expected to increase to 76B from the previous figure of 66B.

As of the current scenario, USD is expected to have an upper hand despite the mixed expectations for the upcoming high impact economic reports as the optimistic approach FED and increase in Job ratio is expected to lead to further USD gains in the coming days.

Now let us look at the technical view. As of the recent Bullish Regular Divergence in place, the price has pushed higher this week and currently residing at the edge of 0.68-69 resistance area from where it is expected to push lower towards 0.6550 support area in the coming days. As the price remains below 0.70 area, the bearish bias is expected to continue further.

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Bitcoin analysis for July 06, 2018

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Trading recommendations: Recently, Bitcoin has been trading downwards. The price tested the level of $6.507. According to the H1 time - frame, I found a broken upward trendline in the backgorund, which is a sign that sellers are in control. I also found a hidden bearish divergence on the macd oscillator, which is another sign of weakness. My advice is to watch for potential selling opportunities. The downward targets are set at the price of $6.233 and at the price of $5.765.

Intraday resistance;

$6.507– Intraday support; $6.233 – Objective target 1;$5.765 - Objective target 2

With InstaForex, you can earn on cryptocurrency's movements right now. Just open a deal in your MetaTrader4. *The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

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Global macro overview for 06/07/2018:

In recent months, the US economy has emerged as immune to the global downturn and remains relatively strong. This is confirmed by yesterday's increase in the ISM index for services whose values are close to cyclical peaks. This strongly contrasts, for example, with the barometers of the Euroland, which have fallen strongly this year. Only that the strength of the economy will no longer translate into the perception of the Fed's intentions. The FOMC has clearly presented the policy and risk perspectives asymmetric, i.e. better data in the coming weeks will not give rise to more hikes in the upcoming quarters or to raise the target level for interest rates.

The key, of course, is the wage growth, which remains close to 2.8 percent. Every year. The labor market is ruthlessly tightening, which should put pressure on wages also in the coming months. This is, of course, still positive for the USD through a channel of inflation expectations raising the yield on debt and working towards extending the spread of profitability to the debt of other G-10 and EM economies. Only that the impact of the speeding labor market on the valuation of US bonds will be smaller than before because it will not go hand in hand with building expectations for a more hawkish Fed position. In the USD valuation, there is a lot of positive information and the positioning has normalized (investors abandoned the extreme skepticism towards the dollar prevailing in the first quarter). All this indicates that the potential for further appreciation of the dollar has been largely exhausted. The more so because in the valuation of many currencies, the discount of negative factors is evident. This applies, among others euro and pound - both currencies have space to continue to rebound.

In the case of data for June, it is expected that monthly wage growth will be maintained at 0.3%, which, year-on-year, should lead to the equalization of this year's maxima of 2.8%. The rate of creation of new jobs is still well above the ceiling allowing stabilization of the unemployment rate, which, therefore, has a chance to decline from 3.8 to 3.7 percent. The change in non-farm employment is estimated at 195,000, ie on a level consistent with the average value for the last year. It is hard to resist the impression that the bar of expectations is highly suspended, which can only aggravate the negative reaction of the dollar in the event of disappointment. However, it is very unlikely that today's readings would be able to sow seeds of uncertainty about the condition of the American economy.

Let's now take a look at the EUR/USD technical picture at the H4 time frame before the NFP Payrolls are released. The market is again testing the 61% Fibo at the level of 1.1720 and this retracement level will play a crucial role during today's NFP data release. Any violation of this level will likely open the road towards the next target at the level of 1.1829. In a case of a worse than expected data, the price might fall below the black intraday trend line support around the level of 1.1670 and head towards the next target at 1.1630.

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EUR/USD analysis for July 06, 2018

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Recently, EUR/USD has been trading upwards. The price tested the level of 1.1726. According to the H1 time - frame, I found a rising trendline, which is a sign that buyers are in control. I also found a potential end of the flat ABC downward correction in the background, which is another sign of weakness. My advice is to watch for potential buying opportunities. The upward target is set at the price of 1.1835.

Resistance levels:

R1: 1.1725

R2: 1.1757

R3: 1.1795

Support levels:

S1: 1.1654

S2: 1.1617

S3: 1.1584

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential buying opportunities.

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CAD/JPY Testing Resistance, Prepare For A Reversal!

CAD/JPY is testing its resistance at 84.21 (61.8% & 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap resistance) where we expect to see a reversal, causing price to fall to its support at 83.08 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap support).

Stochastic (55, 5, 3) is approaching its resistance at 96% where a corresponding reversal could occur.

Sell below 84.21. Stop loss at 84.97. Take profit at 83.08.

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#theforexarmy #forexsigns #forexsignals #forexfamily #forexgroup #forexhelp #forexcourse #forextrade #forexdaily #forexmoney #forexentourage #forextrading #forex #forexhelptrading #forexscalping #babypips #forexfactory #forexlife #forextrader #financialfreedom #daytrader #scalper #swingtrader #fx #currency #pips #technicalanalysis #forexmarket

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GBP/USD Reversed Nicely Off Resistance, Prepare For A Reversal!

GBP/USD has reversed nicely off its resistance at 1.3266 (100% Fibonacci extension x2, 50% & 78.6% Fibonacci retracement, horizontal swing high resistance) where we expect to see a further drop to its support at 1.3149 (100% Fibonacci extension, horizontal pullback support).

Stochastic (89, 5, 3) reversed off its resistance at 95% where a corresponding drop is epected. We have also identified a bearish divergence with price which contributes to our bearish bias.

Sell below 1.3266. Stop loss 1.3324. Take profit at 1.3149.

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#theforexarmy #forexsigns #forexsignals #forexfamily #forexgroup #forexhelp #forexcourse #forextrade #forexdaily #forexmoney #forexentourage #forextrading #forex #forexhelptrading #forexscalping #babypips #forexfactory #forexlife #forextrader #financialfreedom #daytrader #scalper #swingtrader #fx #currency #pips #technicalanalysis #forexmarket

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Global macro overview for 06/07/2018

US customs duty on Chinese products is in force today. Only now we will see what is the actual position and strategy of both sides of the commercial dispute and whether it will escalate to trade wars.

Among other things, it will come out if China decides on non-tariff restrictions and obstacles, for example through stronger targeting of Brazilian soybean producers or adopting a policy of preferable European suppliers (eg delivery of Airbus instead of Boeing). The ball is the Chinese side, and it depends on it whether the conflict will escalate. A definite response to US policy will provoke Trump's administration to impose further duties and create conflict. For now, the first hours after the entry into force of the duties are calm and positive moods, including Shanghai Composite comes out above the line and from the daily minimum it reflects on almost 3.0%. It's just that it does not mean anything at all. It would be unreasonable to make hasty, optimistic conclusions and exclude further turbulence.

Let's now take a look at the USD/JPY technical picture at the H4 time frame. The Chinese Foreign Minister announced that revenge duties on American products had just come into effect. USD/JPY falls after this information to the level of 110.55, but the key level for bears is still seen at the level of 110.27 (50% Fibo and technical support level). In a case of a further sell-off, the next support is seen at the level of 110.03 (61% Fibo and technical support level). The market conditions remain oversold and the momentum is neutral with a slight bias to the downside. The nearest resistance zone is seen between the levels of 110.72 - 110.78.

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Analysis of GBP / USD Divergences for July 5. Bearish divergence - a signal for sales

4H

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The GBP / USD pair continues the growth process to the corrective level of 161.8% - 1.3301 on the 4-hour chart. There was a bearish divergence in the CCI indicator, which allows you to count on the reversal in favor of the US currency and a slight drop in the direction of the correction level of 200.0% - 1.3048. The passage of the last divergence of the future will work in favor of the British currency and the resumption of growth towards the level of Fibo 161.8% at 1.3301, and will also cancel the divergence.

The Fibo grid is built on extremes from March 1, 2018, and April 17, 2018.

1H

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On the hourly chart, the GBP / USD pair posted a fixation above the correction level of 61.8% to 1.3212 and a rise to the Fibo level of 76.4% to 1.3252. It did not happen. There are no other signals and no emerging divergences on July 5. The consolidation of the pair's rate at the correcting level of 76.4% allows the expectation of the resumption of growth towards the corrective level of 100.0% at 1.3314. Fixing quotes below the Fibo level of 61.8% will work in favor of maintaining the decline in the direction of the 50.0% correction level at 1.3182.

The Fibo grid is formed on the boundary of June 22, 2018, and June 28, 2018.

Recommendations for traders:

Purchases of the GBP / USD pair can be opened with a target of 1.3252 and if there is a retreat from the Fibo level of 61.8% (hourly chart), a Stop Loss order can be placed under the correction level of 1.3213.

Selling of the GBP / USD pair will be possible with targets of 1.3182 and 1.3150 and if there is a close to the Fibo level of 1.3213, a Stop Loss order can be placed above the correction level of 61.8%.

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Bitcoin analysis for 06/07/2018

The head of the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) maintains his critical position regarding cryptocurrencies, saying that "they can not take over the function of money," reports BIS.

Speaking to the Swiss newspaper, published subsequently by the BIS itself, general manager Agustin Carstens warned young people about "trying to create money", talking about Bitcoin mining: "Those who have the greatest motivation in the system of these so-called cryptocurrencies are those who produce assets - miners ... This motivation, however, is not compatible with maximizing the usability of money. [...] Cryptocurrencies do not satisfy any of the three destinies of money. They are neither a good means of payment nor a good unit of account, nor are they suitable as a means of value storage. They drastically fail in each of these cases".

BIS provoked outrage when he published an article about cryptocurrencies in June. The mainstream media widely reported about very suspicious views about this phenomenon compared to the fiduciary currency. In addition to the same fears about the possibility of crypto functioning as an article, among other controversial statements, he expressed concern that mass adoption of cryptocurrencies could "stop the Internet".

Continuing the statement, Carstens, who himself repeatedly appeared as a cryptocurrency bear, said that they would clearly not have a happy ending: "[...] There is no need to wrap the bush in this matter. Let us not forget that central banks have been supplying electronic means of payment for decades".

It is worth to notice, that this negative point of view is complete opposition to the view of Elon Musk, John McAfee, Winklevoss twins or other prominent businessmen from all over the world, so now it is only a word battle, mine versus yours. Time will tell who was right in this case.

Let's now take a look at the Bitcoin technical picture at the H4 time frame. The bull camp was too weak to break out above the $6,809 resistance and now the price is slowly falling down again. The nearest intraday support is seen at the level of $6,400, but it might be easily violated and the price might head lower towards the level of $6,209 (weekly pivot). A Friday daily candle close below this level will not be a positive sign for bulls. The key support remains at the level of $5,742.

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Trading plan for 06/07/2018

US duties for Chinese products worth 34 billion USD have come into force, but this does not create any volatility. The Asian session is dominated by a minimum 20-25 pips ranges of changes in the main currency pairs. EUR/USD remains under resistance at 1.1730. GBP/USD after yesterday's rise to 1.3270 has receded to 1.32 and remains slightly above this barrier. USD/JPY moves in the range 110.50-75. AUD/USD is close to 0.74.

The minutes from the FOMC meeting published yesterday in the evening did not contain surprising statements. Finally, the monetary policy outlook has been clearly explained. Wall Street rises from 0.75-1.25%. Similar moods in Asia, where Nikkei leads the top 225 (1.2%). Shanghai Composite and Hang Seng are growing 0.7%. Oil remains weak after a surprising increase in inventories. WTI will open the way for stronger declines ending the day at $ 62.80 a barrel. An ounce of gold is valued at 1255 USD. US 10Y yield is currently at 2.85%.

On Friday, 6th of July, the main event of the day is the release of the US Non-Farm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate, Change in Private Payrolls, Average Hourly Earnings and Participation Rate data. The other important data will be released from Canada in form of Unemployment Rate, Employment Change, Ivey Purchasing Managers Index and Trade Balance figures.

USD/CAD analysis for 06/07/2018:

Market participants do not expect a significant change in Canadian job report. The Unemployment Rate (the percentage of individuals in the labor force who are without a job but actively seeking one. A higher Unemployment Rate is generally a drain on the economy) is expected to remain stable at 5.8%, the Employment Change data (tracks the number of the employed in the country. A surge in new employment suggests higher spending potential and budding inflation pressures) should increase from -7.5k to 22.3k this month and Participation Rate should increase slightly from 65.3% to 65.4%. The Canadian job market should remain stable and all figures should be released inside of the tolerance brackets, so no alarms and no surprises are expected here.

Let's now take a look at the USD/CAD technical picture at the H4 time frame. The market is resting in a tight consolidation around the level of 1.3126 in deeply oversold conditions. The momentum is still below its fifty level, so it supports the bearish outlook. The nearest technical resistance is seen at the level of 1.3166 and then at 1.3259. The nearest technical support is seen at 1.3066. In a case of a significantly better than expected data (lower unemployment rate, lower participation rate), the price should drop towards this support or even move lower towards the level of 1.3045 and 1.3000. Otherwise, the market should remain within the range.

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Technical analysis on EUR/USD for July 6, 2018

EUR/USD has broken above the downward sloping red trend line resistance and is challenging recent highs. Trend is bearish as the price remains below the Ichimoku cloud. Today's NFP announcement will provide the market with some volatility. A sustained move above 1.17-1.1750 will be bullish for the pair.

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Red line - resistance (broken)

Blue line - support

Magenta line - RSI Support trend line

EUR/USD is making higher highs and higher lows on the Daily chart. Resistance is at 1.1720-1.1750. Support is at 1.1660 and next at 1.1610. A rejection at the 1.17-1.1750 area would be a bearish sign. Bulls need to break above this area and stay above 1.1750 if they expect to move higher towards 1.20. A break below 1.1660 will increase the chances of the price breaking below 1.15 next week.

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Technical analysis on Silver for July 6, 2018

Silver prices are consolidating near their recent highs. Price is forming a bullish flag. Strategy is the same as yesterday. A break above $16.10 will open the way for a move at least towards $16.40 and $16.70.

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Red line - short-term resistance (broken)

Silver has short-term resistance at $16.10 and support at $15.90. Bulls want to see a break above $16.10 as this will be a bullish sign for a continued move higher towards $16.40 at least. Silver is also forming the right shoulder of an inverted Head and Shoulder pattern with the neckline at $16.10 and target $16.53.

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Technical analysis on Gold for July 6, 2018

Gold price is setting up a move higher and the trigger might be today's announcement of the NFP numbers. Gold price is expected to move towards $1,272 which is our first target and $1,286 which is our second target.

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Blue line - resistance

Green line -support

Red lines -targets

Gold price has resistance at $1,258-60 and support at $1,250. Price is making higher highs and higher lows. A break above $1,260 will open the way for a move higher towards $1,272 first and $1,285 later. A break below $1,250 if it is sustained for at least 4 hours, should open the way for a move to new lows towards $1,220.

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Technical analysis of USD/CAD for July 06, 2018

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The USD/CAD pair at the Daily chart still moving in a Bullish bias. This can be seen by the price still moving in an Up Slope Channel and above the Moving Average Periode 50. After we see the correction from this pair we've spotted the Stochastic is already at Oversold condition, now there is a possibility for this pair to go up to test its nearest Resistance at 1.3385 level.

(Dsiclaimer)

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Technical analysis of AUD/USD for July 06, 2018

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If we look at the 4-hour chart at the AUD/USD pair, we can see this pair is already moving in a sideways condition but still in a Bearish bias, but the Divergence between the Stochastic and the price give us an information about this pair that it seems it will test its near support zone at 0.7327 to 0.7347 level. As long as this pair do not break out and close their critical level 0.7450, the AUD/USD pair will go down to test its support level zone.

(Disclaimer)

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Technical analysis: Intraday Level For USD/JPY, July 06, 2018

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In Asia, Japan will release the Leading Indicators, Average Cash Earnings y/y, and Household Spending y/y data, and the US will release some Economic Data such as Natural Gas Storage, Trade Balance, Unemployment Rate, Non-Farm Employment Change, and Average Hourly Earnings m/m. So, there is a probability the USD/JPY pair will move with a medium to high volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:

Resistance. 3: 111.27.

Resistance. 2: 111.05.

Resistance. 1: 110.84.

Support. 1: 110.57.

Support. 2: 110.36.

Support. 3: 110.14.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all Traders or Investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis: Intraday Level For EUR/USD, July 06, 2018

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When the European market opens, some Economic Data will be released such as Italian Retail Sales m/m, French Trade Balance, and German Industrial Production m/m. The US will release the Economic Data too, such as Natural Gas Storage, Trade Balance, Unemployment Rate, Non-Farm Employment Change, and Average Hourly Earnings m/m, so, amid the reports, EUR/USD will move in a medium to high volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:

Breakout BUY Level: 1.1750.

Strong Resistance:1.1743.

Original Resistance: 1.1732.

Inner Sell Area: 1.1721.

Target Inner Area: 1.1665.

Inner Buy Area: 1.1633.

Original Support: 1.1654.

Strong Support: 1.1643.

Breakout SELL Level: 1.1636.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all Traders or Investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of NZD/USD for July 06, 2018

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The NZD/USD (kiwi) pair continues to move downwards from the level of 0.6840. This week, the pair dropped from the level of 0.6840 to trade around the 0.6775 level. This level of 0.6840 coincides with the major resistance today. Today, the first resistance level is seen at 0.6840 followed by 0.6880, while daily support 1 is found at 0.6742. Also, the level of 0.6775 represents a key price today for that it is acting as major resistance/support this week. Amid the previous events, the pair is still in a downtrend, because the NZD/USD pair is trading in a bearish trend from the new resistance line of 0.6840/0.6807 towards the first support level at 0.6742 in order to test it. If the pair succeeds to pass through the level of 0.6742, the market will indicate a bearish opportunity below the level of 0.6742. Then, resell again at the price of 0.6742 with the targets of 0.6716 and 0.6697. On the other hand, if a breakout happens at the resistance level of 0.6840, then this scenario may be invalidated.

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for July 06, 2018

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The price is still trading above the pivot point is seen at the price of 0.9857 (around the 0.9943 level right now). The USD/CHF pair faced resistance at the level of 0.9943. The strong resistance has been already formed at the level of 0.9943 and the pair is likely to try to approach it in order to test it again. However, if the pair fails to pass through the level of 0.9943, the market will indicate a bearish opportunity below the new strong resistance level of 0.9943 (the level of 0.9943 coincides with a ratio of 78.6% Fibonacci). Moreover, the RSI starts signaling a downward trend, as the trend is still showing strength above the moving average (100) and (50). Thus, the market is indicating a bearish opportunity below 0.9943, so it would be good to sell at 0.9940 with the first target of 0.9795. It will also call for a downtrend in order to continue towards 0.9733. The daily strong support is seen at 0.9733. On the other hand, the stop loss order should always be taken into account, for that it will be reasonable to set your stop loss at the level of 1.0050.

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Overview of EUR / JPY for the week of July 4 by simplified wave analysis

Wave picture of the chart H4:

The descending wave of February 2 on a larger scale cross-chart takes the place of correction. By the totality of its characteristics, it can be considered complete.

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The wave pattern of the graph H1:

The bullish wave of May 29 has a large wave level. There is a high probability that it will give rise to a larger upward wave.

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The wave pattern of the M15 chart:

The rising wave of June 19 in the larger wave structure takes the place of the final part (C). Before the final jerk, the price should finish the corrective decline.

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Recommended trading strategy:

Sales are highly risky due to the small reduction potential. For all trading styles, it is recommended to track purchase signals for the instrument.

Resistance zones:

- 130.00 / 130.50

- 132.10 / 132.60

Support zones:

- 128.10 / 127.60

Explanations to the figures: In a simplified wave analysis, waves consisting of 3 parts (A-B-C) are used. For analysis, 3 main TFs are used, on each one the last, incomplete wave is analyzed. Zones show the calculated areas with the greatest probability of a turn.

Arrows indicate the wave counting according to the technique used by the author. The solid background shows the generated structure, the dotted - the expected movements.

Attention: The wave algorithm does not take into account the duration of the tool movements in time. To conduct a trade transaction, you need confirmation signals from your trading systems!

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Tomorrow was a war: the financial world froze in anticipation of an escalation of the trade conflict

The financial world froze in anticipation of "military action" on the front of the trade war between the US and China. At 00:00 hours, the US will impose 25 percent duty on imported goods from China for a total of $ 50 billion. Beijing can apply retaliatory measures on the original amount of 34 billion dollars.

Despite the fact that the countries will exchange "blows" exactly at midnight from July 5 to 6, China can outrun its rival. Beijing time is 12 hours ahead of Washington, and, according to preliminary information, China will enforce tariffs according to its time zone. This means that a full-fledged trade war will begin in just a few hours. This fact makes the traders (and not only the currency market) nervous, despite the long preparation for this event.

The nervousness of the market is reflected in the dollar index. The indicator dropped to the base of the 94th figure, and it seems that in the near future, it will test the 93rd level. The other instruments behave in different directions. The euro and the pound are growing, the franc is marking the spot, and the yen is weakening, despite the fact that the northern movement of USD / JPY is not pronounced. Gold also can not decide on the vector of its movement. Contradictory rumors, on the one hand, frighten off buyers, but also do not attract sellers. As a result, XAU / USD is already trading in the flat for the second day, demonstrating impulse price "fuss".

Information about the prospects of the trade war does come in contradictory. Obviously, Trump is ready for a long confrontation and, most likely, will play on the rise. For every step he takes, Beijing will increase the "cost" of the tariff policy. According to experts, further Trump will impose duties on 200 billion dollars and after some interval of time, for another 200 billion.

China's response strategy is a subject of wide discussion. Some are confident that Xi Jinping will consistently and symmetrically respond to American actions, devaluing the yuan. Others believe that the Chinese will go on the offensive, in particular, reducing the amount of investment in the US national debt. How can I not remember the recent rumors about this, which "accidentally" surfaced in the American press. Considering the moment when this information appeared on the market, such a scenario can not be ruled out.

However, among the currency strategists, there are supporters of the version of the "beautiful surrender." In their opinion, behind the external screen of the initial economic "blows" will follow the negotiation process, during which the Chinese will nevertheless make concessions to Washington. As an argument of this version, analysts cite the latest official Chinese data on the level of exports. The structure of this indicator for the first half of the year indicates a slowdown in the export sector, which may indirectly indicate that Beijing still took a course to reduce the surplus of foreign trade with the United States. In addition, supporters of the "peaceful" version point to the statement of the representative of the People's Bank of China, who assured the world community that the regulator does not use the exchange value of the national currency in the trade war. This speech stopped the fall of the yuan, but, for a short while, today the USD / CNY rate jumped to 6.717 (maximum since August 2017), then rolled back to day lows.

It is worth noting that all of the above versions have the right to life, and numerous experts give their arguments in favor of this or that scenario. Such uncertainty reigns in the foreign exchange market too. Traders can not decide whether to flee from risks or remain patient. Gold in this context reflects the general picture, impulsively bargaining in a narrow price corridor.

Macroeconomic indicators today have receded into the background. For example, the ADP report, which came out below forecasts, was virtually ignored by the market. The minutes of the Fed's June meeting, published today for the final of the US session, could affect the overall fundamental background, especially if regulators focus on the protectionism of Donald Trump. In general, the market is already set for a four-fold rate increase this year, so any hints of this fact are unlikely to cause a "storm of emotions." But if the regulator members are concerned about foreign trade policy, the dollar may be under strong pressure, and gold, respectively, in the win.

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Summing up, I will say that the financial world is on the threshold of important events, and on the eve of such eventual thresholds, the market often does not know where to lead the price of one or another instrument. Gold is currently in the trap of uncertainty. Traders are not sure that defensive assets will be in demand in the coming days. Technically, XAU / USD can continue the corrective growth to the first resistance level of 1272 (the middle Bollinger Bands line, coinciding with the Kijun-sen line on the daily chart). The level of support is still the price minimum of the year, the level of 1237.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com