FOMC: As traders wait for interest rates to rise in the US, Donald Trump wants to reform the world trading system

The European currency and other risky assets yesterday were trading quite restrained against the US dollar, as many investors and traders followed the outcome of the meeting by the UN General Assembly, and to prepare for today's results of the meeting of the Federal Reserve System, which is expected to once again raise the interest rate.

The UN General Assembly

The speech of US President Donald Trump before the UN General Assembly did not lead to a serious surge in world markets, even though Trump called for reforming the international trading system. In his view, the introduction of significant changes in the current world trade system, with the support of most developed economies, will help achieve economic prosperity for each country. Trump also spoke about sanctions against Iran, and about the dialogue that the US is waging with the leadership of this country.

Meanwhile, it became known that the European Union plans to create a special payment mechanism that will allow most companies from Europe to conduct financial transactions with Iran, avoiding US sanctions. The creation of such a mechanism was announced by the representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs Federica Mogherini and Iran's foreign minister Mohammad Javad Zarif.

It is likely that such measures will cause discontent on the part of the United States and lead to even more destabilization of trade relations.

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Fundamental data

A good report on the assessment of the US economy led to a strengthening of the dollar in the afternoon because of US consumers who are confident that a strong economy will continue to create jobs, which will positively affect sentiment.

According to the Conference Board report, the consumer confidence index rose to 138.4 points in September 2018 against 134.7 points in August, while economists expected the index to be 132 points. The index of current conditions in September rose to 173.1 points, while the index of expectations increased to 115.3 points.

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As stated in the Conference Board, the current level of trust will continue to support consumer spending.

The growth in house prices in the US slowed down in July, which is directly related to the increase in interest rates in the US and a decline in demand. Hence, the national housing price index of Case-Shiller grew by only 6% in July compared to the same period of the previous year after the June growth of 6.2%.

The indicator of industrial activity in the area of responsibility of the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond has grown. According to the data, the composite production index of the Fed-Richmond rose to 29 points from 24 points in August, while economists expected that the figure would be 20 points in September.

FOMC rates

As I noted above, today's decision of the Federal Reserve System will lead to a surge in market volatility, but much will depend on what statements will be made immediately after this decision. It is expected that the Fed will raise the range of interest rates to 2.25%. If the prospects for further tightening of monetary policy continue, the demand for the US dollar will grow. However, in all likelihood, the quotations have already taken into account the current increase, and it is unlikely that the significant demand for the US dollar will last for quite some time. I recommend to put on further strengthening in risky assets, in particular, you need to look closely at the European currency.

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The British pound yesterday strengthened against the US dollar after statements made by the representative of the Bank of England, Gertjan Vlieghe, who noted during his speech that the curtailment of quantitative easing should not be destructive, and the effects of building up and folding QE are not symmetric. In his view, folding QE is unlikely to affect the yield curve, as it is now happening in the United States.

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The review of the foreign exchange market as of September 26, 2018

Yesterday, Donald Trump proudly beat himself with a heel in his chest and was acclaimed that the American economy, under his sensitive guidance, shows simply magnificent results. Given the laughter in the assembly hall of the UN General Assembly, he was not particularly credited. After all, if they start talking about how wonderful everything is, then things are not going so well. Moreover, yesterday's data on house prices in the US showed a slowdown in growth from 6.4% to 5.9%. The fact that the forty-fifth US president was not particularly trusted is evident in the dynamics of the dollar, which yesterday lost its positions, albeit extremely sluggish. True, the ruble has fallen a little, but this is more likely because of its excessive overbought. Although the impetus to this was the expansion of US sanctions, since the United States included in the sanctions list 12 more Russian companies, with the formulation that their activities are detrimental to America's national interests and security. In other words, they suffered because they prevented American companies from making a profit.

Although today in the US, there are data on sales of new homes, which can grow by 0.5%, this is of no interest to anyone. All attention to the outcome of the meeting of the Federal Commission for open market operations, and the subsequent speech of Jerome Powell. Last week, some mass agitation and disinformation media actively spread rumors that the Fed would not raise the refinancing rate. But when it became clear that they were not trivial about the strength of both the statements of the FRS representatives themselves and the value of futures on the interest rate, the most authoritative media were forced to change their tone. Now, we are talking about the fact that the Fed can reconsider its plans on the rate of increase in the refinancing rate for the next year, as well as for the current one. But this is already quite realistic, because inflation in the US is slowing, and there are also many questions about the fate of the ECB's quantitative easing program. The very increase in the refinancing rate has long been included in the price, so that it will not greatly affect the state of affairs in the market. But the revision of plans for further increases will seriously affect the dollar. And it is negative. Moreover, if the Fed really revises its plans, it will clearly demonstrate that yesterday, they were not in vain laughing at the words of Donald Trump about the state of the American economy.

As already noted, the increase in the refinancing rate of the Fed is already included in the price, but the revision of plans on the pace of tightening monetary policy, especially in the face of uncertainty about the future fate of the ECB's quantitative easing program, will provide substantial support to the single European currency. So, the euro has good chances to grow to 1.1825. If everything remains as before, the Fed will not hint at revising the pace of tightening monetary policy, then, given the nervousness fueled by all sorts of means of mass media, you can expect to reduce the single European currency to 1.1750.

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The pound will be subject to the same logic as the single European currency, so if the forecasts on the results of the meeting of the Federal Commission for Open Market Operations are justified, then the pound will grow to 1.3250. If nothing changes, then it is worth waiting for the pound to fall to 1.3125.

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The ruble is subject to a slightly different logic, and the results of the meeting of the Federal Commission for open market operations will not have any influence on it. The expansion of the sanctions list has already been worked out by the market, so this event will not affect the ruble either. Nevertheless, the ruble is seriously overbought, and a local correction arises. However, he is also deterred by market concerns over sanctions against Iran, although they are already taken into account by the market. So, most likely, the dollar will gradually move in the direction of 66.25 rubles. If the results of the meeting of the Federal Commission for Operations in the Open Market disappoint investors and fears about sanctions against Iran will not disappear, the dollar will stay at the level of 65 rubles.

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Analysis of EUR / USD Divergences on September 26. Two divergences, three rebounds from the level of 1.1791

4h

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The third test for the strength of the corrective level of 100.0% - 1.1791 failed again. In addition to the rebound from this level of Fibo, a bearish divergence was formed in the CCI indicator, which also worked in favor of the US currency. As a result, on September 26, the process of falling quotations can be continued in the direction of the correction level of 76.4% - 1.1676. Fixing the quotes of the pair above the Fibo level of 100.0% will allow traders to expect a resumption of growth in the direction of the correction level of 127.2% to 1.1927.

The Fibo grid is built on extremes from July 9, 2018, and August 15, 2018.

Daily

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On the 24-hour chart, the currency pair EUR / USD continues to trade near the correctional level of 76.4% - 1.1789. Quit of the pair quotes from this level will allow us to count on a reversal in favor of the US dollar and a slight drop towards the correction level of 100.0% - 1.1553. Brewing divergences are not observed today. Fixing the pair's rate above the Fibo level of 76.4% will increase the pair's chances of continuing growth towards the next correction level of 61.8% - 1.1938.

The Fibo grid is built on extremes from November 7, 2017, and February 16, 2018.

Recommendations for traders:

New purchases of the EUR / USD currency pair will be possible with the goal of 1.1927 with a stop loss order under the Fibo level of 100.0% if the pair completes the closing above the correction level of 1.1791.

The EUR / USD currency pair can now be traded with a target of 1.1675 with a Stop Loss order above the Fibo level of 100.0%, as the pair completed the third retracement from the correction level of 1.1791 with the formation of the second bearish divergence.

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Analysis of GBP / USD Divergences for September 26. The Fed could help the dollar back to 1.3067

4h

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After the GBP / USD has rebounded from the correction level of 23.6% to 1.3067, the growth continues in the direction of the Fibo level of 38.2% - 1.3316. Already tonight, the presentation of the results of the meeting of the Federal Reserve System of the USA will take place, at which the rate can be increased by 0.25%. During the release of these data, the pair can reverse in favor of the US dollar and return to the correctional level of 23.6%. Brewing divergences on September 26, there is not one indicator.

The Fibo grid is built on extremes from April 17, 2018, and August 15, 2018.

1h

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On the hourly chart, the pair retreated from the correction level of 38.2% to 1.3101 and the increase to Fibo level of 23.6% to 1.3175. Quit of quotations from the correction level of 23.6% will work now in favor of the US dollar and a slight drop towards the level of Fibo 38.2% - 1.3101. There are no maturing divergences on the current chart. The pair's closing above the correction level of 23.6% will work in favor of continuing growth towards the next corrective level of 0.0% - 1.3298.

The Fibo grid is built on extremes from September 5, 2018, and September 20, 2018.

Recommendations for traders:

Purchases of the GBP / USD currency pair can be carried out with a target of 1.3298 and a Stop Loss order under the correction level of 23.6% if there is a close above the Fibo level of 1.3175 (hourly chart).

The GBP / USD currency pair can be traded with a target of 1.3101 and a Stop Loss order above 23.6% if the pair retires from the Fibo level at 1.3175 (hourly chart).

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Forecast for EUR / USD as of September 26, 2018

EUR / USD

The euro closed yesterday's growth by 19 points mainly due to the growth of the British pound, which added 60 points on a new rumor about the EU's readiness to give Britain a free trade zone after leaving the bloc. The price continued consolidation in the range of 1.1750-1.1832.

Economic data for the US as a whole came out good, but the S & P500 closed the day down by -0.13%. Perhaps, the stock market is already tired of growing against the background of a rapid increase in rates, and if so, after today's Fed rate hike from 2.00% to 2.25%, the stock market will go into correction, which will support the dollar as a safe haven. The index of consumer confidence in the US from the Conference Board for September increased from 134.7 to 138.4, the index of business activity in the manufacturing sector of Richmond for September increased from 24 to 29. The index of house prices in July rose by 0.2%.

Today, sales of new homes in the US for August are expected to increase to 630 thousand from 627 thousand in July. In the evening, at 19:00 London time, the Fed raises the rate by a quarter point to 2.25%.

In the way of price movement, there are three support down: 1.1700 - the Krusenstern trend indicator line on the four-hour chart, 1.1660 - the balance line on daily, 1.1508 - the trend line of the price channel on daily, coinciding with the Kruzenshtern line on the same chart.

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Forecast for GBP / USD as of September 26, 2018

GBP / USD

On Tuesday, the pound grew by 60 points due to information in the media about the EU's readiness to give the UK a free trade zone after Brexit. Technically, the price growth formed the conditions for growth on the four-hour chart. The price went over the indicator lines of the balance sheet and Kruzenshtern, the Marlin oscillator was in the growth zone. This signal warns that with an increase in the rate of the US Federal Reserve this evening, the market can make a false upward movement, to resist the trend line of the price channel on daily 1.3270.

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But, on the other hand, the output of the price for the indicator lines and the Marlin signal line in the growth zone (on the H4 chart) may itself be a false signal. In the end, we still wait for the price to fall sequentially to the following levels: 1.3000 - support for the line of balance on daily, 1.2878 - an approximate goal, formed by the support of the Kruzenshtern line on daily and supporting the trend line of the descending channel. Medium-term goal, as before, the price channel line in the region of 1.2661, which coincides with the minimum on August 15.

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Bitcoin analysis for September 26, 2018

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Trading recommendations:

According to the H1time - frame, I found that Bitcoin is in upward correction phase and that is trading in the upward channel. My advice is to watch for buying opportunities as long the upward trending is holding. The upward target is set at the price of $6.754. If you see a breakout of the upward trendline, watch for selling opportunities with the targets at $6.300 and at the price of $6.083.

With InstaForex you can earn on cryptocurrency's movements right now. Just open a deal in your MetaTrader4.

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FOMC meeting results may disappoint

Today will be the key event in the fall. The US Federal Reserve's meeting on monetary policy, which is expected to raise the key rate by a quarter point, plus updated macroeconomic forecasts will be published.

The current stage of the state of the US economy looks very convincing. The GDP growth is higher than in Europe and Japan, the labor market is close to full employment, inflation is also near the target. FOMC members have no reason to change rhetoric, and the market is already laying in the current quotes both a rate hike and a hawk position FOMC.

At the same time, there are a number of factors that do not allow us to predict with the same certainty the growth of the dollar following the meeting. In order for the bullish expectations to be realized, it is required that investors positively assess the situation in the US economy in the medium term, which at present there are quite big doubts.

The tax reform has led to a strong increase in borrowing at the federal level, public sector financing is generated from borrowed money, as of the beginning of the third quarter, the difference between current revenues and current federal government spending has risen to $ 1.333 trillion.

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There is a paradoxical situation, formal macroeconomic indicators, such as GDP growth, inflation, and the labor market, look very decent, giving the Fed the opportunity to maintain aggressive rhetoric and bring the plan at a rate and reduce the balance to the planned levels before the recession. On the other hand, all this prosperity is built on a very shaky foundation, outstripping the growth of debts.

We have already noted that the dynamics of the inflow of foreign capital into the US securities market looks negative. Exactly the same situation with foreign direct investment, which is not directed to securities, but directly to the development of companies, the creation of new businesses and jobs, Trump's trade war has not led to an increase in investment, but, on the contrary, to their outflow.

Trump, launching tax reform and creating conditions for the repatriation of capital, expected that high duties would force US companies to transfer production to the US, but the chances of such a scenario are still small. Negative flow is a direct consequence of the reduction of direct investment from China, that is, a direct consequence of trade wars.analytics5bab2b0362454.jpg

Thus, the main intrigue for today's meeting of the FOMC is whether the Committee will keep aggressive rhetoric, relying on the formally high indicators of the state of the US economy, or will be forced to correct it pigeonhole. A sign of this correction may be a change in the positions of FOMC members on the long-term forecast for the rate, currently it is 2.9% and it is possible to raise the forecast to 3.0% (bullish) or, conversely, a decrease to 2.8%, which could provoke a strong sell-off of the dollar.

EUR / USD

The euro, as expected yesterday, is trading in a narrow range in anticipation of the outcome of the FOMC meeting. No noticeable internal drivers of the eurozone this week does not offer, the dynamics of the euro will depend on the change in expectations for the dollar. Immediately before the announcement of the results of the FOMC meeting at 19.00 London time, it is necessary to monitor the change in the dollar exchange rate, a possible growth will mean that investors tend to a more hawkish scenario and open long positions in the dollar, a lack of growth or decline will mean that investors expect the dollar to fall following the meeting.

GBP / USD

The pound looks worse Wednesday morning than the euro, as it is under additional pressure, both because of the failure of the Brexit talks and the slowdown in economic growth. The CBI report on industrial orders in September unexpectedly fell to -1p versus + 7p in August, which is the worst result in 4 months and reflects an increase in concerns about cooling in the industry. If bullish expectations for the dollar get an implementation, GBP / USD runs below support at 1.3053, which will mean the bear's interception of the initiative.

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Analysis of Gold for September 26, 2018

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Recently, Gold has been trading sideways at the price of $1,198.00. According to the H1 time – frame, I found that upward correction potentially ended near the level of $1,203.60, which is a sign that buying looks risky. I also found the breakout of the upward trendline, which is another sign of weakness. My advice is to watch for potential selling opportunities. The downward targets are set at the price of $1,191.80 and at the price of $1,187.55.

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Fractal analysis of the main currency pairs for September 26

Dear colleagues.

For the currency pair Euro / Dollar, the continuation of the upward movement is expected after the passage at the price range of 1.1809 - 1.1829. For the Pound / Dollar currency pair, the price is close to canceling the downward structure from September 20, which requires a breakdown at the level of 1.3204. For the currency pair Dollar / Franc, the price issued a pronounced initial condition for the top of September 21, the development of which is expected after the breakdown of 0.9690. For the Dollar / Yen currency pair, we follow the local upward structure of September 13, continuing the upward movement forward after the breakdown of 113.01. For the currency pair Euro / Yen, we expect the continuation of the upward movement after the breakdown of 133.16. For the Pound / Yen currency pair, the downward structure of September 21 is still relevant as initial conditions, for the upcoming movement we expect the formation of a pronounced structure to the level of 149.69.

Forecast for September 26:

Analytical review of currency pairs in the scale of H1:

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For the currency pair Euro / Dollar, the key levels on the scale of H1 are: 1.1864, 1.1829, 1.1809, 1.1748, 1.1728 and 1.1701. Here, we continue to follow the local upward structure of September 17. The short-term upward movement is expected in the range of 1.1809 - 1.1829 and the breakdown of the last value will lead to a movement to the potential target of 1.1864, upon reaching this level, we expect a rollback into correction.

The short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 1.1748 - 1.1728 and the breakdown of the last value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the target is 1.1701 and this level is the key support for the top.

The main trend is a local structure for the top of September 17, the area of correction.

Trading recommendations:

Buy 1.1810 Take profit: 1.1827

Buy 1.1830 Take profit: 1.1860

Sell: 1.1746 Take profit: 1.1730

Sell: 1.1726 Take profit: 1.1705

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For the Pound / Dollar currency pair, the key levels on the scale of H1 are: 1.3293, 1.3204, 1.3092, 1.3040, 1.2995, 1.2957, 1.2867 and 1.2803. Here, we monitor the formation of a downward structure from September 20 and the level of 1.3204 is the key support. Its breakdown will have to form an upward structure. In this case, the target is 1.3293. The continuation of the movement downwards is expected after the breakdown of 1.3092. In this case, the first target is 1.3040 and the breakdown of which in turn will allow us to count on the movement to 1.2995, up to this level we expect the formation of pronounced initial conditions for the bottom. The passage at the price range of 1.2995 - 1.2957 will lead to the development of a pronounced downward movement. Here, the target is 1.2867. The potential value for the bottom is the level of 1.2803, upon reaching which we expect a rollback to the top.

The main trend is the formation of a downward structure from September 20, a stage of deep correction.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.3206 Take profit: 1.3290

Buy: Take profit:

Sell: 1.3090 Take profit: 1.3042

Sell: 1.3040 Take profit: 1.2995

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For the pair Dollar / Franc, the key levels on the scale of H1 are: 0.9729, 0.9689, 0.9675, 0.9657, 0.9624, 0.9608 and 0.9583. Here, we follow the formation of the potential for the top of September 21. The continuation of the upward movement is expected after the breakdown of 0.9660. In this case, the target is 0.9675 and at this level is the consolidation of the price, and also before it, we expect the formulation of pronounced initial conditions for the upward cycle. The passage at the price range of 0.9675 - 0.9689 will lead to the development of a pronounced movement. Here, the target is 0.9729, from which we expect a pullback to the bottom.

The short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 0.9624 - 0.9608 and the breakdown of the last value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the target is 0.9583 and this level is the key support for the top.

The main trend is the formation of the upward structure of September 21.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 0.9660 Take profit: 0.9675

Buy: 0.9690 Take profit: 0.9725

Sell: 0.9622 Take profit: 0.9610

Sell: 0.9606 Take profit: 0.9588

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For the currency pair Dollar / Yen, the key levels on the scale of H1 are: 113.95, 113.53, 113.34, 113.01, 112.64, 112.41, 112.13 and 111.96. Here, we follow the local upward structure of September 13. The continued upward movement is expected after the breakdown of 113.01. In this case, the target is 113.34 and in the range of 113.34 - 113.53 is the consolidation. The potential value for the top is the level of 113.95, upon reaching which we expect a pullback downwards.

The short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 112.64 - 112.41 and the breakdown of the last value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the target is 112.13 and the range of 112.13 - 111.96 is the key support for the top.

The main trend: the local upward structure of September 13.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 113.01 Take profit: 113.34

Buy: 113.55 Take profit: 113.95

Sell: 112.62 Take profit: 112.45

Sell: 112.38 Take profit: 112.15

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For the Canadian Dollar / Dollar currency pair, the key levels on the scale of H1 are: 1.3065, 1.3003, 1.2968, 1.2945, 1.2888, 1.2837 and 1.2804. Here, we follow the downward structure of September 18. The continued downward movement is expected after the breakdown of 1.2888. In this case, the target is 1.2837. We consider the level of 1.2804 to be a potential value for the downward structure, after which we expect consolidation, and also a rollback to the top.

The short-term upward movement is possible in the range of 1.2945 - 1.2968 and the breakdown of the latter value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the target is 1.3003 and this level is the key support for the downward structure from September 18.

The main trend is a local downward structure from September 18.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.2945 Take profit: 1.2966

Buy: 1.2970 Take profit: 1.3000

Sell: 1.2888 Take profit: 1.2840

Sell: 1.2835 Take profit: 1.2805

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For the Australian Dollar / Dollar currency pair, the key levels on the scale of H1 are: 0.7390, 0.7362, 0.7320, 0.7287, 0.7252, 0.7224 and 0.7186. Here, we follow the upward cycle of September 11 and at the moment, the price is in correction. The short-term upward movement is expected in the range of 0.7287 - 0.7320 and the breakdown of the last value will lead to a movement to the level of 0.7362. The potential value for the top is the level of 0.7390, after which we expect consolidation.

The short-term downward movement is expected in the range of 0.7252 - 0.7224 and the breakdown of the last value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the target is 0.7186 and this level is the key support.

The main trend is the ascending structure of September 11.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 0.7287 Take profit: 0.7320

Buy: 0.7322 Take profit: 0.7360

Sell: 0.7252 Take profit: 0.7226

Sell: 0.7222 Take profit: 0.7188

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For the Euro / Yen currency pair, the key levels on the scale of H1 are: 134.55, 133.85, 133.16, 132.29, 131.86, 131.32 and 131.02. Here, we continue to follow the development of the upward cycle of September 10 and at the moment, the price is in correction. The continuation of the upward movement is expected after the breakdown of 133.16. In this case, the target is 133.85 and near this level is the consolidation. The potential value for the upward trend is the level of 134.55, upon reaching which we expect a pullback downwards.

The short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 132.29 - 131.86 and the breakdown of the last value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the target is 131.32 and the range of 131.32 - 131.02 is the key support for the top.

The main trend is the upward cycle of September 10.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 133.16 Take profit: 133.80

Buy: 133.90 Take profit: 134.50

Sell: 132.27 Take profit: 131.88

Sell: 131.80 Take profit: 131.36

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For the Pound / Yen currency pair, the key levels on the scale of H1 are: 149.69, 148.17, 147.59, 146.84, 145.89, 144.86 and 144.11. Here, the descending structure of September 21 is still relevant as potential initial conditions. The short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 148.17 - 147.59 and the breakdown of the latter value will lead to the development of a downward trend. In this case, the first target is 146.84. Its breakdown, in turn, will lead to a movement of 145.89, near this level is the consolidation. The breakdown of the level of 145.89 will lead to the development of a pronounced movement. Here, the target is 144.86. We consider the level of 144.11 to be a potential value for the bottom, after which we expect a rollback to the top.

Regarding the upward movement: to the level of 149.69, we expect the formation of a pronounced structure of the initial conditions for the subsequent definition of goals.

The main trend is the equilibrium situation.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: Take profit:

Buy: Take profit:

Sell: 148.15 Take profit: 147.65

Sell: 147.55 Take profit: 146.90

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GBP/USD analysis for September 26, 2018

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Recently, the GBP/USD pair has been trading upwards. The price tested the level of 1.3189. According to the H1 time – frame, I found the strong breakout of the upward channel in the background, which is sign that sellers are in control. Most recently, I found the potential end of the upward correction (abc flat – zig zag), which is a sign that you should watch for selling opportunities. The downward targets are set at the price of 1.3100 and at the price of 1.2960.

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential selling opportunities.

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for September 26, 2018

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Overview:

On the one-hour chart, the USD/CHF pair continues moving in a bullish trend from the support levels of 0.6635 and 0.6616. Currently, the price is in a bullish channel. This is confirmed by the RSI indicator signaling that we are still in a bullish trending market. As the price is still above the moving average (100), immediate support is seen at 0.6635, which coincides with a golden ratio (61.8% of Fibonacci). Consequently, the first support is set at the level of 0.6635. So, the market is likely to show signs of a bullish trend around the spot of 0.6635/0.6616 In other words, buy orders are recommended above the golden ratio (0.6635) with the first target at the level of 0.6696. Furthermore, if the trend is able to breakout through the first resistance level of 0.6696. We should see the pair climbing towards the double top (0.6696) to test it. Next objective will be targted at the level of 0.6728. It would also be wise to consider where to place a stop loss; this should be set below the second support of 0.6616.

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Technical analysis of AUD/USD for September 26, 2018

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Overview:

The AUD/USD pair will be probably continue to rise from the level of 0.7233 in the long term. It should be noted that the support is established at the level of 0.7233 which represents the 50% Fibonacci retracement level on the H4 chart. The price is likely to form a double bottom in the same time frame. Accordingly, the AUD/USD pair is showing signs of strength following a breakout of the highest level of 0.7260. So, buy above the level of 0.7260 with the first target at 0.7309 in order to test the daily resistance 1 and further to 0.7346. Besides, it might be noted that the level of 0.7379 is a good place to take profit because it will form a double top. On the other hand, in case a reversal takes place and the AUD/USD pair breaks through the support level of 0.7233, a further decline to 0.7153 can occur which would indicate a bearish market.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for GBP/USD for September 26, 2018

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On September 13, The GBP/USD pair was testing the depicted downtrend line which came to meet the pair around 1.3025-1.3090. Since then, the pair has been demonstrating a successful bullish breakout so far.

This price zone (1.3025-1.3090) also corresponds to 50% and 61.8% Fibonacci levels. Currently, this price zone turned to become a prominent demand zone to be watched for bullish price action.

However, On H4 chart, the market failed to maintain its uptrend within the depicted bullish channel on H4 chart. The lower limit of the depicted channel (which came to meet the GBP/USD pair around 1.3190) failed to offer sufficient bullish demand.

As long as the recent bullish breakout above 1.3090 (Demand level-1) is maintained on a daily basis, a further bullish advance should be expected towards 1.3300 and 1.3390 (reversal pattern final target).

On the other hand, the price level of 1.3190 now constitutes a short-term supply level (the backside of the broken bullish channel) where some bearish rejection was demonstrated as expected in previous articles.

Therefore, the GBP/USD short-term outlook remains trapped between 1.3190 (supply) and 1.3090 (demand). Breakout in either direction should be anticipated.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for September 26, 2018

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On the weekly chart, the EUR/USD pair is demonstrating a high-probability Head and Shoulders reversal pattern where the right shoulder is currently in progress.

Recently, the price level of 1.1500 offered temporary bullish recovery towards 1.1750. The EUR/USD bulls failed to pursue towards higher bullish targets. Instead, a descending high was established around 1.1800.

However, the price level of 1.1520 stood as a prominent demand level where the current bullish pullback towards the price level of 1.1700 was initiated.

Last week, another bullish movement was demonstrated towards the upper limit of the price range (1.1750) which resulted in a daily shooting-star bearish candlestick reflecting early signs of bearish rejection.

On the daily chart, the EUR/USD pair remains trapped below the depicted technical levels (1.1750 - 1.1850). As the bearish side of the market to be dominant, the pair should keep trading below 1.1750.

On the other hand, conservative traders should be expecting further bullish advance towards 1.1850 if the EUR/USD pair resumes its movement above 1.1750.

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Fundamental analysis of USD/CAD for September 26, 2018

USD/CAD has been quite volatile and corrective, residing at the edge of 1.2950 area with a daily close. Ahead of the high impact US economic events today, certain volatility and spikes may be observed in the market as USD has been quite mixed with the recent economic results.

Today the Federal Funds Rate is expected to increase to 2.25% from the previous value of 2.00%. Therefore, volatility in the market may increase. The rate hike is quite imminent and expected to weaken USD for certain period while strengthening in the longer term. Moreover, FOMC Economic Projections, FOMC Statement and FOMC Press Conference are also expected to play a vital role for the upcoming definite pressure in the market. Additionally, today the US New Home Sales report is going to be published which is expected to increase to 630k from the previous figure of 627k and the Crude Oil Inventories is expected to increase to -0.7M from the previous figure of -2.1M.

On the other hand, today Canada will not release any key reports to impact the market momentum while on Friday CAD GDP report is going to be published which is expected to increase to 0.1% from the previous value of 0.0% and Bank of Canada Governor is also going to speak about the upcoming policies and key interest rate decisions which is also expected to play a vital part in the process.

As of the current scenario, the rate hike scenario of US had weakened its currency in the earlier events whereas this time is also expected to have same result. If US manages to provide better development results throughout the event today, certain gain on the USD is expected or else CAD is expected to dominate further in the pair.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price is being held by the dynamic levels of 20 EMA, Tenkan and Kijun line while residing at the edge of 1.2950 area from where it is expected to push lower towards 1.2750 support area in the coming days. As the price remains below 1.3050 area, the bearish bias is expected to continue.

SUPPORT: 1.2750

RESISTANCE: 1.3050

BIAS: BEARISH

MOMENTUM: VOLATILE

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Fundamental Analysis of AUD/USD for September 26, 2018

AUD/USD has been quite indecisive recently after pushing above 0.7200 area with a daily close amid impulsive bullish pressure earlier. Australia does not present macroeconomic economic reports or events this week, while USD is alert to high impact economic reports on the line. Thus, certain volatility is expected in this pair which might lead to a definite momentum in the pair.

AUD has been quite mixed amid the recent economic reports, while the empty economic calendar from Australia weakened the overall pressure of AUD it had over USD in the process. The only economic report to be published in Australia this week on Friday is Private Sector Credit report which is expected to be unchanged at 0.4%.

On the USD side, today US Federal Reserve is widely expected to increase its official funds rate to 2.25% from the previous value of 2.00%. The anticipated rate hike is likely trigger higher volatility in the market. The rate hike is quite imminent and expected to weaken USD for certain period while strengthening for the long term. Moreover, FOMC Economic Projections, FOMC Statement, and FOMC Press Conference is also expected to play a vital role in developing the market sentiment. Additionally, today US New Home Sales report is going to be published which is expected to increase to 630k from the previous figure of 627k and Crude Oil Inventories is expected to increase to -0.7M from the previous figure of -2.1M.

Meanwhile, AUD is expected to be the weaker currency in the pair. USD may hold the upper hand if the economic events and reports favor the upcoming gains in the process. Though certain spikes may be observed in the process, a definite trend can be settled for the coming days.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price is currently residing above the dynamic levels of 20 EMA, Tenkan and Kijun line while residing inside the middle of the range between 0.7200 to 0.7320 area. The price is still residing below 0.7320 area where the Kumo Cloud resistance also rests which is indicating further bearish momentum in the pair if the price remains below 0.7320 area with a daily close or else a daily close above 0.7320 will lead to further bullish pressure for the coming days. As the price remains below 0.7320 area, the bearish bias is expected to continue.

SUPPORT: 0.7200, 0.7150

RESISTANCE: 0.7320, 0.7450

BIAS: BEARISH

MOMENTUM: VOLATILE

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Technical analysis of Gold for September 26, 2018

Gold price continues to trade around $1,200. Price has been trading between $1,211 and $1,190 for nearly a month now. Trend is neutral in the short-term although price remains inside the bearish channel.

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Green lines - bearish channel

Red lines - trading range

Short-term resistance area is at $1,205-$1,211. A break above this level will push prices towards $1,220 at least. Support is at $1,190. A break below this level will most probably push Gold to new lows.

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for September 26, 2018

EUR/USD continues to trade near its highs above 1.17 but below the 1.18 area. Prices tried to push back above 1.18 yesterday only to meet selling pressures and resistance. Volatility is expected to rise tonight after the FOMC announcement.

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Blue line - support

Red line - support

Blue dots - medium strength support

Dark blue dots - maximum strength support

EUR/USD remains in a short-term up trend as long as price is above 1.17-1.1660 area. Tonight after the FOMC we might see volatility rise. I would not be surprised to see prices fall near 1.17 and then bounce back up. Bulls do not want to see another run to 1.18 and another rejection. Bulls do not want to see prices break below 1.17 and stay below it for more than 30 minutes. If this happens, we should be prepared for a bigger pull back towards 1.16.

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Trading plan for 26/09/2018

The foreign exchange market has been a little quieter in anticipation of the Fed's evening decision. On the Asian stock market we have more volatility with returning to trade after the holiday break. Oil is under slight pressure following the negative overtone of API.

USD and other currencies keep narrow ranges of fluctuations because the market is waiting for guidance from the Fed. The EUR / USD hovers around 1.1760, USD / JPY tries to get over 113. GBP / USD tried to approach 1.32 after the assurances of the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom Britain May that it excludes expedited elections, but the impulse has quickly faded. The information noise concerns NAFTA negotiations and CAD. US trade secretary Lighthizer said that little progress has been made in recent days, as Canada does not offer concessions on key issues. USD / CAD stopped at 1.2950.

On the equity market, the indices in China are focused on continuing the recovery in the calm of the subject of trade wars. Shanghai Composite is growing 1.6% today. In Japan, Nikkei225 gains 0.3%.

EUR/USD analysis for 26/09/2018:

On Wednesday, the 26th of September 2018, the main event of the day is the FOMC Rate Decision and Rate Statement release. This decision will directly affect the EUR/USD rate as the market participants expect a hike from 2.00% to 2.25%. It would be quite a surprise if the Federal Open Market Committee did not raise interest rates on Wednesday. The US economy remains strong, and recent comments from the central bank indicate readiness for further hikes. Investors' attention will focus on the future path of monetary policy - if the Fed tries to build expectations for a longer cycle of tightening, it will be an important positive signal for the dollar.

Let's now take a look at the EUR/USD technical picture at the H4 time frame. The price is still moving inside of the channel, so the general bias is bullish. The nearest technical resistance levels are seen at 1.1790, 1.1803 and 1.1813. The nearest technical supports are seen at 1.1752 and 1.1746. Moreover, any breakout below the level of 1.1720 would mean a channel breakout as well and the bias might turn into bearish. In that case, the next technical support is seen at the level of 1.1655.

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Global macro overview for 26/09/2018

A series of data from New Zealand was published overnight. The Trade Balance data in August was NZD 1.484 billion versus expectations of NZD 930 million. The previous reading from 143 to 196 million NZD has also been revised. On a yearly basis, the data also does not look good. The previous deficit read-out was revised from NZD 4.44bn to NZD 4.5bn, the current result was NZD 4.81bn. A country's trade balance reflects the difference between exports and imports of goods and services. The trade balance is one of the biggest components of the Balance of Payment, giving valuable insight into pressures on the country's currency. The reaction of the New Zealand dollar was falling, but at the peak of the crisis it was barely 10 pips and was quickly negated.

A little bit later, the ANZ published the results of a business confidence survey in New Zealand. The value of the index bounced from the ten-year minimum and increased from -50.3 points to -38.3 points. The report shows that the willingness to invest is still falling, but the need to increase employment is increasing.

Let's now take a look at the NZD/USD technical picture at the H4 time frame. Despite the mixed message coming from the data, NZDUSD fired upwards by more than 30 pips and denied the majority of declines from the last two days. Nevertheless, the price is still trapped inside of the range between the levels of 0.6631 - 0.6696, just below the swing high at 0.6724. The momentum is still positive, but it is barely above its fifty level. If the support at the level of 0.66321 is violated, the next target for bears is seen at the level of 0.6591.

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Bitcoin analysis for 26/09/2018

The official entry published yesterday by Google informs that next month the company will update the rules on advertising, again allowing some cryptographic companies to advertise on their platform. According to an official statement, starting in October, Google will allow registered cryptocurrencies to advertise on their platform, targeting recipients from the US and Japan. Advertisers will need to obtain a Google certification for a specific country where they will display their ads: "|After entering policy in October, advertisers will be able to apply for certification " - we read in the announcement.

This decision came after the announcement in March that all companies related to cryptography, described by the industry as "unfair" and "disturbing", will be banned from buying ads on Google Adwords. Facebook in June made a similar move, reversing the advertising ban for pre-approved cryptocurrency companies while maintaining the prohibition of advertising initial monetary offers (ICO).

Let's now take a look at the Bitcoin technical picture at the H4 time frame. The market has bounced from the support at the level of $6,297, which is just below the 61% of Fibonacci retracement at $6,343. Currently, the market is testing the technical resistance at the level of $6,413. The conditions are now oversold and the price might bounce a little bit higher, even to the level of $6,521. The key technical support is still seen at the level of $6,077, so as long as the market trades above this level, there is always a chance for a bigger rally higher.

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Technical analysis: Intraday Level For EUR/USD, Sept 26, 2018

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When the European market opens, no economic data will be released. However, the US will release a series of economic data such as Federal Funds Rate, FOMC Statement, FOMC Economic Projections, Crude Oil Inventories, and New Home Sales. So, amid the reports, EUR/USD will move with medium to high volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVELS:

Breakout BUY Level: 1.1819.

Strong Resistance:1.1812.

Original Resistance: 1.1801.

Inner Sell Area: 1.1790.

Target Inner Area: 1.1762.

Inner Buy Area: 1.1734.

Original Support: 1.1723.

Strong Support: 1.1712.

Breakout SELL Level: 1.1705.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a highlevel of risk, and may not be suitable for all Traders or Investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

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Technical analysis: intraday level for USD/JPY, Sept 26, 2018

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In Asia, Japan will release the BOJ Core CPI y/y. At the same time, the US will also unveil some economic data such as the Crude Oil Inventories and New Home Sales reports. Moreover, today the Fed will deliver its interest rate decision, the FOMC Statement, and the FOMC Economic Projections. So, there is a probability the USD/JPY will move with medium to high volatility during this day. TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVELS:Resistance. 3: 113.52.Resistance. 2: 113.30.Resistance. 1: 113.08.Support. 1: 112.80.Support. 2: 112.58.Support. 3: 112.36.Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a highlevel of risk, and may not be suitable for all Traders or Investors.The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you.Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefullyconsider your investment objectives, level of experience, and riskappetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of someor all of your initial investment and therefore you should not investmoney that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all therisks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice froman independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for September 26, 2018

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EUR/NZD failed in its first attempt to break above resistance at 1.7732. We still think that red wave v already is developing for a rally to at least 1.8030 and if this is the case, then support at 1.7580 ideally should protect the downside for renewed upside pressure and this time a break above a break above 1.7732 for confirmation that red wave v is moving higher towards 1.8030.

Only and unexpected break below 1.7538 will keep red wave iv alive, but the potential downside should be very limited and no lower than 1.7488.

R3: 1.7823

R2: 1.7783

R1: 1.7732

Pivot: 1.7651

S1: 1.7626

S2: 1.7580

S3: 1.7538

Trading recommendation:

We are long EUR from 1.7615 with our stop placed at 1.7515. Upon a break above 1.7732 we will move our stop higher to 1.7575 and we will take profit on half our position at 1.8000.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for September 26, 2018

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The sideways consolidation since the minor peak at 133.13 is shaping up like an ascending triangle indicating more upside pressure towards 134.07 once the consolidation is complete. A break above resistance at 133.13 will confirm the completion of the triangle and a rally towards at least 134.07 in blue wave (3). Even though we have moved our expectation for the possible peak of blue wave (3) lower, we still expect a rally higher towards 136.50 longer-term, it's just the road to there, that becomes a bit different than first expected.

Support is now seen at 132.58 and then at 132,34. The later can not be broken as that will call for a different corrective pattern and likely dip to 131.88 before higher towards 134.07 and above.

R3: 134.07

R2: 133.48

R1: 133.07

Pivot: 132.58

S1: 132.34

S2: 131.88

S3: 131.53

Trading recommendation:

We are long EUR from 129.11 with our stop placed at 130.85. Upon a break above 133.13 we will move our stop higher to 131.80 and we will take profit on half our position at 133.90.

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GBP/USD Approaching Resistance, Prepare For A Reversal

GBP/USD is approaching its resistance at 1.3202 (100% Fibonacci extension, 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap resistance) where it is expected to reverse down to its support at 1.3149 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement, horizontal swing low support).

Stochastic (55, 5, 3) is approaching its resistance at 98% where a corresponding reversal is expected.

GBP/USD is approaching its resistance where we expect to see a reversal.

Sell below 1.3202. Stop loss 1.3243. Take profit at 1.3149.

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EUR/GBP Approaching Support, Prepare For A Bounce

EUR/GBP is approaching its support at 0.8922 (100% Fibonacci extension, 50% Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap support) where it could potentially bounce to its resistance at 0.8964 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement, horizontal swing high resistance).

Stochastic (55, 5, 3) is bounced off its support at 3.3% where a corresponding bounce could occur.

EUR/GBP is approaching its support where we expect to see a bounce.

Buy above 0.8922. Stop loss at 0.8903. Take profit at 0.8964.

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Global macro overview for 25/09/2018

President of the European Central Bank Mario Draghi said yesterday that the stable inflation profile hides the "relatively energetic" increase in core inflation and repeated its "confidence that wage growth will continue." For a dovish central banker, such words could sound surprisingly and their weight It could be significant, provided that it would signal an imminent change in monetary policy, but there will be no such change, as Draghi repeated the previous ECB statement that interest rates will not be changed at least "all summer" next year. a complicated verbal construction must be used to draw attention to a little developmental topic? The problem is that Draghi did not talk about what inflation is currently, but what the central bank expects in its forecasts, hence I consider it quite a growing scale of EUR response after the words president and more It is understandable for me to quickly extinguish this movement in the following hours. At the same time, this shows where the sensitivity of the market is now - any pretext to justify the increase in EUR is used diligently, especially if it allows a revision of expectations regarding the future ECB strategy. I have concerns as to whether the market is building a position on false assumptions, but for the EUR it will be a problem only when these assumptions will be questioned.

Let's now take a look at the EUR/USD technical picture at the H4 time frame. The market has made another marginal higher high at the level of 1.1813 and then come back towards the range zone. The immediate support is seen at the level of 1.1752 - 1.1746. The key technical support is seen at the level of 1.1720. Please notice the price is still moving inside of the channel.

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Global macro overview for 25/09/2018

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index rose in September after a significant improvement in August. The index is currently 138.4 compared to 134.7 in August. Current Situation Index slightly improved from 172.8 to 173.1, and the Expectations Index rose from 109.3 in the previous month to 115.3 this month.

"After a significant improvement in August consumer confidence increased in September and remains at an 18-year maximum," said Lynn Franco, director of economic indicators at the Conference Board. "September's reading does not deviate from the record level of 144.7, which was achieved in 2000. The assessment of current conditions by consumers remains extremely favorable, supported by the strong economy and dynamic employment growth, and the expectations index increased in September, suggesting solid economic growth of over 3.0 percent for the remainder of the year. This record-high level of trust should continue to support consumer spending and should be good news for retailers who are getting ready for the holiday season. "

Assessment of consumer sentiment regarding business conditions, employment and personal income. Based on a representative sample of thousands of mail-in surveys, the Conference Board index has the largest pooling sample of any US measure of consumer confidence. Consumer Confidence levels are generally linked with consumer spending. For instance, when consumer confidence is on the rise consumer spending tends to increase. Low or falling consumer confidence on the other hand is typically associated with decreased spending and consumer demand.

Let's now take a look at the DXY technical picture at the H4 time frame. The market has failed to break through the level of 95.00 which is acting as a technical resistance for the price. The next technical support is seen at the level of 94.65. Please notice, the marekt continues to trade below the blue trend line, which suggest more lower prices to come.

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Global macro overview for 25/09/2018

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index rose in September after a significant improvement in August. The index is currently 138.4 compared to 134.7 in August. Current Situation Index slightly improved from 172.8 to 173.1, and the Expectations Index rose from 109.3 in the previous month to 115.3 this month.

"After a significant improvement in August consumer confidence increased in September and remains at an 18-year maximum," said Lynn Franco, director of economic indicators at the Conference Board. "September's reading does not deviate from the record level of 144.7, which was achieved in 2000. The assessment of current conditions by consumers remains extremely favorable, supported by the strong economy and dynamic employment growth, and the expectations index increased in September, suggesting solid economic growth of over 3.0 percent for the remainder of the year. This record-high level of trust should continue to support consumer spending and should be good news for retailers who are getting ready for the holiday season. "

Assessment of consumer sentiment regarding business conditions, employment and personal income. Based on a representative sample of thousands of mail-in surveys, the Conference Board index has the largest pooling sample of any US measure of consumer confidence. Consumer Confidence levels are generally linked with consumer spending. For instance, when consumer confidence is on the rise consumer spending tends to increase. Low or falling consumer confidence on the other hand is typically associated with decreased spending and consumer demand.

Let's now take a look at the DXY technical picture at the H4 time frame. The market has failed to break through the level of 95.00 which is acting as a technical resistance for the price. The next technical support is seen at the level of 94.65. Please notice, the marekt continues to trade below the blue trend line, which suggest more lower prices to come.

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Bitcoin analysis for September 25, 2018

Bitcoin has been quite impulsive with the bearish gains today which lead the price to push below $6,500 and dynamic level of 20 EMA with a strong momentum. The indecisive phase of Bitcoin is not coming to an end this quick as the market context shows. Though the market is volatile, it has left certain traces of bullish trend structure by pushing higher step by step with great stability. Though the price is impulsively bearish, it remains above $6,000 and creates a new higher low in the process while also breaking above $6,500 will provide the necessary indication for further bullish pressure with target towards $7,500 and later towards $8,000 resistance area in the future.

SUPPORT: 6000

RESISTANCE: 6500, 7500, 8000

BIAS: BULLISH

MOMENTUM: VOLATILE

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GBP/USD. 25 September. Results of the day. Theresa May can leave the post of prime minister until the end of November

4-hour timeframe

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The amplitude of the last 5 days (high-low): 54п – 117п – 163п – 222п – 104п.

The average amplitude over the past 5 days: 132p (131p).

The British pound sterling on Tuesday also moved on pure technique. New data on the progress of negotiations on Brexit did not appear during the day. At the same time, political crises are brewing in the British Parliament and within the Conservative Party, which borders on scandals. The number of politicians dissatisfied with Theresa May's negotiations with the EU is growing every day. Recall that May does not agree with the terms of Brussels, and her version of Brexit is rejected by the European Union. In general, there is a deadlock, from which, at first glance, it is difficult to find a way out. And since May can not agree with the European Union, the members of the Conservative Party are considering the possibility of removing her from the positions of Party leader and prime minister of Great Britain. The longer there is no progress in the negotiations, the more likely it is that May will leave office before the end of November. It is for this month that the completion of negotiations on Brexit is planned. Of course, the negotiations can be extended in terms of time, but only if progress is visible. If there is no progress, there will be no point in delaying the negotiations. The removal of the leader of the UK from her position can send the pound into a new long fall, as hardly anyone wants to invest in the economy of the country, which can not deal with its leader, where there is no unity in Parliament, but even the majority, and the prime minister in all conceivable and unimaginable ways tries to stay in her chair and is not able to agree on the procedure that was initiated by her.

Trading recommendations:

The GBP/USD currency pair is corrected against the "dead cross" and has almost completed the critical line. Overcoming traders Kijun-sen will provoke a resumption of the upward movement and will become actual purchase orders with targets of 1.3232 and 1.3285.

Shorts can be opened in case of a price rebound from the Kijun-sen line or when the MACD indicator is turned down. This will mean the completion of the correction loop, in this case the target will be level 1.3022.

In addition to the technical picture, one should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanations to the illustration:

Ichimoku Indicator:

Tenkan-sen is a red line.

Kijun-sen is a blue line.

Senkou Span A is a light brown dotted line.

Senkou Span B - a light purple dotted line.

Chikou Span is a green line.

Bollinger Bands Indicator:

3 yellow lines.

MACD indicator:

Red line and histogram with white bars in the indicator window.

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Simplified Wave Analysis. Review of USD / CHF pair for the week of September 25

The wave pattern of the H4 graph:

The direction of the short-term trend of the pair is set by the bearish wave of May 9. In a larger wave, it corrects the first section of the trend.

The wave pattern of the H1 graph:

The wave of July 17 forms the final part (C) in a 4-hour wave construction. The price has reached the upper limit of a wide support zone of large scale.

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The wave pattern of the M15 chart:

The descending section, which began on September 11, is formed along the trend direction of the higher timeframe. In recent days there has been an upward rollback. Turn signals are not generated.

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Recommended trading strategy:

A small potential for further decline makes sales justified within the framework of intraday trading. It is recommended to wait for the completion of the entire decline and to look for turn signals in purchasing the instrument.

Resistance zones:

- 0.9670 / 0.9720

Support zones:

- 0.9480 / 0.9430

Explanations to the figures:

A simplified wave analysis uses a simple waveform, in the form of a 3-part zigzag (ABC). The last incomplete wave for every timeframe is analyzed. Zones show the calculated areas with the greatest probability of a turn.

Arrows indicate the counting of wave according to the technique used by the author. The solid background shows the generated structure and the dotted exhibits the expected wave motion.

Attention: The wave algorithm does not take into account the duration of the tool movements in time. To conduct a trade transaction, you need to confirm the signals used by your trading systems.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com