Technical analysis of USD/CHF for October 3, 2014

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Overview :



  • The price of USD/CHF pair is still located between levels of 0.9535 and 0.9595, i.e. above the strong support level 0.9492 (61.6% of Fibonacci retracement levels in H4 chart). These levels correspond to 100% and 78.6%% of Fibonacci retracement levels in the H4 chart. The pair has already formed strong resistance at this level of 0.9595 and is currently approaching it for further testing. Therefore, the swissie is expected to go downwards following the non-corrective structure and indicating the bearish opportunity below the 0.9595 level (the double top). Sell-deals are recommended below 0.9595 with the first target seen at the 0.9545 level. Thus downtrend is likely to continue the bearish movement towards the 0.9500 level. Moreover, it is crucial that the price has probably formed a strong support at 0.9492 (61.8% of Fibonacci retracement levels in H4 chart). The saturation is like to take place around 0.9490. Therefore it is possible that the market will start showing the signs of a bullish behaviour from today until next week. In the other word, buy-deals are recommended above 0.9400 with the first target seen at the 0.9550 level and further at the 0.9600 level.


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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for October 3, 2014

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Overview :



  • The EUR/USD pair is trading below its pivot point which sets at the level of 1.2690. It is likely to trade in a lower range as far as it remains below its pivot point. Also, it might be noted that the ratio of 61.8% represents the same key level in H1 chart. Moreover, H1 chart is negative biased as RSI is turning bearish. Short position is recommended from the level of 1.2690 with the first target at 1.2615 in mind. A break of this target will move the pair further downwards towards 1.2568 in order to test the double bottom. Furthermore, the double bottom will act as strong support because it is the last bearish wave since the 30th of September 2014. In case the price moves in the contrary direction, it bounces back from the support level, and then moves above its first support around the 1.2620 level, it is most favourably expected to move further to the upside. In that scenario, a long position is recommended from the double bottom with the first target at 1.2620 and the second target at 1.2665.


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#USDX Technical analysis for October 3, 2014

The Dollar index continues to hold the important support at 85.50 and remains in a fully bullish trend. The trend will reverse to bearish if the index breaks below 85.50. The next upside target is at 87-89.


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In the short term, the trend is bullish and support is found at 85.70. Price is above the ichimoku cloud and is trending higher making higher highs and higher lows after confirming support at 85.50. This support level has been tested and was not broken. This is a sign of Dollar strength.


usdxd.jpg

Green line = price channel


The Dollar index remains inside the upward sloping channel. Ichimoku cloud indicators remain fully bullish. Support at 85.50 was held and we could see an upward break out soon towards 87. Breaking below 85 could signal a trend change on a daily basis. I remain bullish expecting this up trend to continue higher. Important for bulls to raise their stops as a possible reversal will be very sharp and could push the index towards 82-83.


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Gold Wave analysis for October 3, 2014

Gold price most probably completed wave 4 yesterday and should start pushing below $1,204 lows towards $1,180 which is the major low and support. Our view remains longer-term bearish towards $1,000 as long as price is below $1,280.


goldh4.jpg

Blue line = support


Green line = price channel


Gold price remains in a bearish trend. Yesterday, I mentioned that price got rejected at the upper channel boundaries and at the Ichimoku cloud resistance. This confirms that trend is bearish and that there are more chances of breaking below $1,200 now than pushing above $1,225. Resistance at $1,225 is important and a break above it will change the short-term trend to bullish. Support at $1,204 is expected to be broken and Gold price to move towards $1,180.


goldd.jpg

In the chart above, I post my Ellliott wave count and that is why I expect Gold to push towards $1,000 as the final wave 5. The sideways corective move since May 2013 has broken downwards from $1,270 and has given us a strong sell signal targeting $1,000.


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Technical Analysis of GBP/JPY for October 03, 2014

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In yesterday's session, the pair hit the 20 Dsma and closed below that. The pair has a weekly support between 173.24-173. Today, the pair opened with support of previous close and is showing good strength to touch 20Dsma. After a week of consolidation, the pair has been going through correction for the last 2 days. In the H4 chart, the pair is facing strong resistance in the ascending trend line and the 61.8 fib level. Above this, it can fly up to 176.66 levels. The prices are closed and trading below hourly key moving averages. We can clearly see the broadening top on the h4 chart. The pair has resistance at 176 above this 176.45, 177 and broadening descending trend line.


Resistance is at 176, 176.45, and 177.


Fresh buy only above 175.85.


Sell only below 175.


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Technical Analysis of EUR/JPY for October 03, 2014

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The pair is facing strong resistance at 50Wsma, unable to breach it. In yesterday's session, the pair again was sold off, took the support at 80.0 the fib level, covered most of its losses, and closed at 137.34. The pair managed to close above the descending inner trend line. Today, the pair is showing a strong pullback in Asia's session. The pair breached the 50Dsma and is facing resistance at the 61.8 levels. Bulls will have an upper hand, if the pair closes above 137.75 50Dsma. Today as of now, it is trading below that.


EURJPYH4.png

For an intraday view, the prices closed and are trading below the hourly moving averages at 35DEMA and 34hrsma levels. We can see strong and safe up move only above the 2-week descending trend line. If the pair manages to close above that, then it can extend its rally up to 138.80 and 139 levels.


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Technical Analysis of GBP/USD for October 03, 2014

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The cable was rejected again from 20Dsma in yesterday's session. The pair opened with a weak note below the previous close. Traders are focused on today's US nonfarm payroll and UK's services PMI. The cable is trading near the lower levels. The support level existed at 1.61 and between 1.6052-1.6030. If a daily close is below 1.60, again bears will take the cable into their control with a downside target at 1.59 and 1.554 which are November 2011 lows.


Closing below 1.60, the short-term trend again turns down. - pending


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For an intraday view, the pair has been facing strong resistance in a 10-day descending trend line and 2-month descending trend line. The prices are closed below 12ema and 34hrsma. It represents the bearish sign on hourly and intraday basis. The pair is completely in bearish hands on hourly basis.


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Technical Analysis of EUR/USD for October 03, 2014

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The pair gave a strong close about 50 pips in yesterday's session after 9 trading sessions. The pair took support at the 1.2622 and 1.2570 levels and is facing strong resistance at the 1.27 and 1.2715 levels. The ECB meeting made the euro bounce against the US dollar. Today, traders watch closely US nonfarm payroll data for September. If the data hit the wire in the optimistic way, the minor strength of the euro will erase again the pullback will be short-lived. In yesterday's session, the pair was unable to breach the immediate resistance 1.27, above this 1.2817 20Dsma will act as strong resistance. Bulls will come back only if the pair closes above 20Dsma. Until then, use every rise to sell.


EURUSDH4.png

For an intraday view, the prices are closed above 12ema and 35DEMA, but the pair is facing strong resistance at 34hrsma. For an hourly view, the resistance levels existed at 1.2675 above this 1.27-1.2715. Safe buying will trigger only above the 1.2715 level with upside targets at 1.2750 and 1.2765. Support existed at the 1.2645 and 1.2614 levels. Safe selling will trigger below 1.2610 towards the downside target between 1.2585 -1.2570. Selling pressure will drag the pair below 1.2570 towards the 1.2550 and 1.25 levels.


Risky traders - use sl 1.27-1.2715 sell.


Strong buy will emerge above 1.2715 towards 1.2750-1.28-1.2815.


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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for October 3, 2014

General overview for 03/10/2014 08:40 CET

The bounce from the wave B low is currently in three waves but as long as the level of 137.40 is not violated this structure can still develop into full five wave impassive cycle. That would mean, the low for wave B has been established and now market has started another upward cycle in wave C. To accomplish that, the first intraday resistance at the level of 137.93 must be broken and market must impulsively move higher into the grey rectangle zone, marked on chart as demand breakthrough zone.


Support/Resistance:

136.86 - Swing Low

136.96 - 78%Fibo

137.12 - WS2

137.63 - Intraday Support

137.73 - WS1

137.93 - Intraday Resistance

138.78 - Intraday Resistance

138.96 - Weekly Pivot

138.96 - 139.14 - Demand Breakthrough Zone


Trading recommendations:

Day traders should consider opening buy orders from current price levels with SL below the level of 137.39 and TP at the level of 138.78.


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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for October 03, 2014


Technical outlook and chart setups:


The EUR/JPY pair seems to be on its way towards new highs at 143.00 levels at least. As seen here, the pair is bouncing off the back side of resistance line, which is acting as support now. Furthermore, the fibonacci 0.618/0.786 support is also passing through 137.00 levels and a bullish morning star reversal signal is being produced at the moment. All these factors point towards a bullish bounce from the current levels and hence recommendations are to remain long from positions taken yesterday. Immediate support is seen at 135.80 and lower while resistance is seen at 139.00 levels, followed by 141.30 and higher up respectively.


Trading recommendations:


Remain long, stop at 135.80, target 143.30 at least.


Good luck!


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Technical analysis of Silver for October 03, 2014


Technical outlook and chart setups:


Silver made intraday low at $16.95 levels yesterday after reversing from the trend line resistance earlier, as it is shown here. A push higher from current levels could break the inner trend line resistance and also $18.00 levels. On the flip side, a push lower from here towards the trend could see prices drifting towards the $16.00 levels. Immediate resistance is seen at the $17.80 levels, followed by $18.00, $18.60 and higher while support is seen at $16.80 and lower respectively. It is recommended to remain flat for now, and look to trade on a resistance break. The metal could see a bottom sooner from current levels; maximum downside being $16.00 levels.


Trading recommendations:


Remain flat for now.


Good luck!


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Technical analysis of Gold for October 03, 2014


Technical outlook and chart setups:


Gold remains virtually unchanged from what was discussed yesterday. The metal still remains in a tight trading range that could see a break out pretty soon. Support of the range is around $1,200.00/05.00 levels while resistance is seen at $1,230.00/40.00 for now. An engulfing bullish candlestick signal was seen on Wednesday on the daily chart, as it is shown here. But a follow through is still required to be seen, that could break the trading range on the higher side. The metal is trading around $1,212.00/13.00 at the moment and it is recommended to trade on a breakout.


Trading recommendations:


Remain flat for now. Looking for a bullish breakout to get in.


Good luck!


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Daily analysis of major pairs for October 3, 2014

EUR/USD: This pair is currently trading above the support line at 1.2600 – though still in a bearish trend. For the bearish trend to continue, the price needs to cross the support line to the downside again, going towards another support line at 1.2550. On the other hand, any movement above the resistance line at 1.2750 could mean the end of the bearish outlook.


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USD/CHF: It could be pointed out that the USD/CHF pair has nowhere to go except in opposition to what the EUR/USD pair is doing. The negative correlation between the two pairs is so strong: the former would rise as the latter falls (and vice versa). The price has failed to test the resistance level at 0.9600, and it is currently retracing downwards. A movement below the support level at 0.9450 could mean the end of the bullish journey.


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GBP/USD: The Cables continues to be weak, and the price could potentially go further south. The accumulation territory at 1.6100 is an easy target for bears – it could even be breached to the downside.


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USD/JPY: The USD/JPY pair has become weak as a result of the strength in the yen. This is a new ‘sell’ signal in the market, for it is no longer logical to seek long trades here. The price has crossed the EMA 56 to the upside and the RSI period 14 has crossed the level 50 to the downside. There is a Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the chart, and the price could reach the demand level at 107.50.


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EUR/JPY: This market is now trading below the supply zone at 137.50, and it may test the demand zone at 137.00 again. The Bearish Confirmation Pattern on the EUR/JPY cross is getting significant. One reason for this is that the yen is now getting stronger.


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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for October 03, 2014

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When the European market opens, some economic news will be released such as Spanish Services PMI, Italian Services PMI, Final Services PMI, Retail Sales m/m. The US will release the economic data too such as the Non-Farm Employment Change, Unemployment Rate, Trade Balance, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, Final Services PMI, Average Hourly Earnings m/m. So,amid the reports, EUR/USD will move with medium volatility during this day.

TODAY TECHNICAL LEVELS:

Breakout BUY Level: 1.2730.

Strong Resistance:1.2722.

Original Resistance: 1.2710.

Inner Sell Area: 1.2690.

Target Inner Area: 1.2668.

Inner Buy Area: 1.2638.

Original Support: 1.2626.

Strong Support: 1.2614.

Breakout SELL Level: 1.2606.


Best regards,


Arief Makmur


Official Analyst of InstaForexGroup


InstaForex Group


http://instaforex.com


email: Arief.jakarta@indo.instaforex.com


Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of USD/JPY for October 03, 2014

!USDJPY.jpg In Asia, Japan will not release any economic data's but the US will release some economic data such as Non-Farm Employment Change, Unemployment Rate, Trade Balance, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, Final Services PMI, Average Hourly Earnings m/m. So there is a big probability the USD/JPY pair will move with low volatility during the Asian session, but with medium volatility during the US session.

TODAY TECHNICAL LEVELS:

Resistance. 3: 109.37.

Resistance. 2: 109.16.

Resistance. 1: 108.95.

Support. 1: 108.68.

Support. 2: 108.47.

Support. 3: 108.25.


Best regards,


Arief Makmur


Official Analyst of InstaForexGroup


InstaForex Group


http://instaforex.com


email: Arief.jakarta@indo.instaforex.com


Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Daily analysis of USDX for October 03, 2014

The USDX performed a pullback near to the 86.20 level so that corrective movements in this instrument could be extended to the support level of 85.18. A consolidation below this level could lead the USDX to fall to the support level of 84.29, which would help the USDX to fall to the support level of 82.51 in the medium term. Remember that the USDX formed a fractal at the level of 86.20.


USDXDaily.png

Daily chart's resistance levels: 86.20 – 87.35


Daily chart's support levels: 85.18 – 84.29


In the H1 chart, the USDX achieved consolidation below the 85.73 level, finding support at the level of 85.49. The resistance level of 87.16 is quite strong, so USDX is trying to make a breakout in the support level of 85.29 to fall to the level of 85.27 which is below the 200 SMA. MACD indicator is entering neutral territory, which would be a sign that the USDX would be entering a phase of consolidation.


USDXH1.png

H1 chart's resistance levels: 85.95 – 86.17


H1 chart's support levels: 85.73 – 85.49


Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place buy (long) orders only if the USD Index breaks with a bullish candlestick; the resistance level is at 85.73 take profit is at 85.95, and stop loss is at 85.51.


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Daily analysis of GBP/USD for October 03, 2014

The GBP/USD pair continues to weaken below the 200-day moving average in the daily chart, so this pair is trying to make a breakout at the support level of 1.6146. The next target road bearish for this pair is the 1.6046 level. Although we must remember that the support level of 1.6046 is very strong, which may appear in GBP/USD. For now, this pair is solid in the bearish bias. In MACD indicator is entering the overbought area.


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Daily chart's resistance levels: 1.6235 - 1.6326


Daily chart's support levels: 1.6146 - 1.6046


On the H1 chart we can see that this pair had a strong fall below the resistance level of 1.6170, and now, the GBP/USD is finding strong support at the 1.6117 level. This pair would make a breakout at that level, though the GBP/USD pair may rise again to the resistance level of 1.6117. However, it is advisable to wait for the formation of a lower low pattern to continue placing sell orders.


GBPUSDH1.png


H1 chart's resistance levels: 1.6170 – 1.6216


H1 chart's support levels: 1.6117 – 1.6075


Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place sell (short) orders only if the GBP/USD pair breaks a bearish candlestick; the resistance level is at 1.6117, take profit is at 1.6075, and stop loss is at 1.6223.


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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for October 02, 2014

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Fundamental Overview:


USD/JPY is expected to trade in a lower range after hitting a six-year high 110.09 on Wednesday. It is undermined by the selling of yen crosses amid increased risk aversion (VIX fear gauge rose 2.45% to 16.71, S&P 500 closed 1.32% lower at 1,946.16 overnight) on fresh concerns about global growth after weak manufacturing PMI data in several major economies, pro-democracy protests in Hong Kong and worries about Ebola after the U.S. reported the first case on Tuesday. USD/JPY is also weighed by the profit-taking on long USD positions ahead of the European Central bank's interest rate decision on Thursday and U.S. nonfarm payrolls data on Friday, Japan exporter sales and lower U.S. Treasury yields (10-year at 2.389% versus% 2.508% late Tuesday), weaker USD sentiment on worse-than-expected drop in U.S. ISM manufacturing PMI to 56.6 in September from 59.0 in August (versus forecast 58.2), surprise 0.8% decrease in U.S. August construction spending (versus forecast for 0.6% increase), lower final Markit U.S. September manufacturing PMI of 57.5 versus preliminary reading of 57.9. But USD sentiment is soothed by the ADP report showing larger-than-expected 213,000 increase in U.S. September private-sector jobs (versus forecast 209,000). USD/JPY losses are also tempered by the ultra-loose Bank of Japan's monetary policy and demand from Japanese importers.


Technical comment:
Daily chart is mixed as five and 15-day moving averages are advancing, but bearish outside-day-range pattern was completed on Wednesday, stochastics is turning bearish at overbought zone, MACD histogram bars turned negative.


Trading recommendations:
The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as far as it remains below its pivot point. Short position is recommended with the first target at 108.30. A break of this target will move the pair further downwards to 107.95. The pivot point stands at 109.10. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, then it will move above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. In that scenario, a long position is recommended with the first target at 109.55 and the second target at 110.


Resistance levels:

109.55

110

110.35


Support levels:

108.30

107.95

107.65


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Daily analysis of Silver for October 02, 2014

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Overview


According to our last expections, the price's close below the Support level of 17.30 will give new opportunities for sell signals. Currently, the metal has already managed to close below the Support level to trade below and open the way towards the support level of 17.00 as the first target which is tested now. Metal must break the Support level firstly to get more bearish move till reaching the level of 16.80 as the second target. On the other hand, the metal's rebound from the Support level of 16.80 cancels bearish scenario.


Resistance and support levels: R3 (17.50), R2 (17.30), R1 (17.00), S1 (16.80), S2 (16.50).







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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for October 02, 2014

USDCHFM30.png


Fundamental Overview:


USD/CHF is expected to consolidate with a bullish bias. USD/CHF is undermined by the weaker USD sentiment. But CHF sentiment is dented by the weaker-than-expected Switzerland September PMI of 50.4 (versus forecast 52.0). USD/CHF downside is also limited by the franc sales on soft CHF/JPY cross and dovish Swiss National Bank's monetary policy. USD/CHF upside is dented by the profit-taking on long USD positions ahead of the European Central bank's interest rate decision Thursday and U.S. nonfarm payrolls data Friday and lower U.S. Treasury yields (10-year at 2.389% versus% 2.508% late Tuesday), weaker USD sentiment on worse-than-expected drop in U.S. ISM manufacturing PMI to 56.6 in September from 59.0 in August (versus forecast 58.2), surprise 0.8% decrease in U.S. August construction spending (versus forecast for 0.6% increase), lower final Markit U.S. September manufacturing PMI of 57.5 versus preliminary reading of 57.9.


Technical Comments:
Daily chart is still positive-biased as MACD is bullish, stochastics stays elevated at overbought zone, five and 15-day moving averages are advancing.


Trading recommendations:


The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a higher range as far as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price is keeping above its pivot point, a long position is recommended with the first target at 0.9595 and the second target at 0.9635. In an alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 0.9485. A break of this target would push the pair further downwards and one may expect the second target at 0.9455. The pivot point is at 0.9525.


Resistance levels:

0.9595

0.9635

0.9650



Support levels:


0.9485

0.9455

0.9415


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Technical analysis of GBP/JPY for October 02, 2014

GBPJPYM30.png


Fundamental Overview:


GBP/JPY is expected to consolidate in lower range.It is undermined by the soft USD/JPY undertone and Japan exporter sales. GBP sentiment is dented by the weaker-than-expected CIPS/Markit U.K. September manufacturing PMI of 51.6 (versus forecast 53.0). GBP/USD is also weighed by the sterling sales on soft GBP/JPY cross amid increased investor risk aversion and sterling sales on rebounding EUR/GBP. But GBP/USD losses are tempered by weaker USD sentiment. But GBP/JPY losses are tempered by the demand from Japanese importers.


Technical Comment:
Daily chart is negative-biased as MACD and stochastics are bearish, five-day moving average is below 15-day MA and is declining.


Trading recommendations:
The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as far as it remains below its pivot point. Short position is recommended with the first target at 174.50. A break of this target will move the pair further downwards to 174. The pivot point stands at 176.05. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, then it will moves above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. In that scenario, a long position is recommended with the first target at 176.65 and the second target at 177.10.


Resistance levels:

176.65

177.10

177.45

Support levels:

174.50

174

173.65


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