Gold analysis for January 13, 2014

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Overview :


Since our last analysis gold has been trading upwards. As we expected, the price tested the level of 1,243.97 in a volume above the average. According to the H4 time frame, we can observe demand on the market, which is a sign that selling gold at this stage looks risky. We may expect testing the levels of 1,255.00-1,265.00. Be careful when selling gold and watch for potential buying opportunities on the lows.


Daily pivot Fibonacci points:


Resistance levels:


R1: 1,235.84


R2: 1,240.20


R3: 1,247.27


Support levels:


S1: 1,221.70


S2: 1,217.37


S3: 1,210.10


Trading recommendations: Watch for potential buying opportunities after retracement (buy on the lows).


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EUR/NZD analysis for January 13, 2014

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Overview:


In our last analysis EUR/NZD was trading sideways around the price of 1.5200. According to the daily time frame, we can observe demand in a volume above the average. According to the H1 time frame, we can observe weak demand, which is a sign that buying looks risky. I have placed Fibonacci retracement to find potential resistance levels and got Fibonacci retracement 38.2% at the price of 1.5290 and Fibonacci retracement 61.8% at the price of 1.5435. Be careful when buying and watch for potential selling opportunities after retracement. Any larger supply in a high volume may confirm further bearish phase.


Daily Fibonacci pivot levels:


Resistance levels:


R1: 1.5246


R2: 1.5289


R3: 1.5357


Support levels:


S1: 1.5110


S2: 1.5067


S3: 1.5000


Trading recommendations: Be careful when buying the EUR/NZD pair at this stage since we got weak demand in the background.


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#USDX technical analysis for January 13, 2015

The Dollar index did not manage to break above the resistance yesterday, but is still consolidating above the short-term suppot at 91.80. The longer-term trend remains bullish although we could see a deeper short-term pullback towards 91 before resuming higher towards 94-95.


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Red line = resistance


Blue line = support


The Dollar index remains above the trend line support but below the short-term resistance trend line. The Dollar index is also above the Ichimoku cloud. The recent consolidation, I believe, is just another pause before the resumption of the uptrend. In case the Dollar index breaks below the 91.70 support, I expect the pullback to push price towards the cloud support area of 91.10-91.40.


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The monthly chart above shows that January is another strong bullish month. The clear breakout above the 38% retracement gives me 95 as target where the 50% retracement is found. Trend remains strongly bullish and there is no sign of a reversal. Any pullback towards 90 should be seen as a back test and another opportunity to go long with this index.


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Gold technical analysis for January 13, 2015

Gold price has broken above the important resistance at $1,235-38 and is making new trend highs. Short-term trend remains bullish as gold price makes higher highs and higher lows. Target is now at $1,260 as long as the price holds above $1,200.


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Gold price has broken the consolidation range last week, and early this week continues to show strength by breaking above important medium-term resistance at $1,238. The target of the bullish flag is at $1,260. Price is above the Ichimoku cloud and as long as the price holds above $1,220-$1,200 bulls should be in control.


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The triangle pattern has been broken upwards from yesterdays late trading. Price is above the Ichimoku cloud and tenkan-sen is crossing the kijun-sen. This is another bullish signal that supports my bullish view for an upward move towards $1,260 at least.


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Technical analysis of USD/CAD for January 13, 2015

General overview for 13/01/2015 09:15 CET


The projected target for wave 5 purple has been hit, but the market is continuing to make higher highs as the impulsive structure looks incomplete yet. This is why the overall scenario has been a little changed and the top for wave iii black has been established at the level of 1.1867 now. Please notice the momentum oscillator is starting to diverge from price and bearish divergence is building now. The current scenario expects an internal corrective sub-cycle in wave (iv) blue and then another high will be made.


Support/Resistance:


1.1987 - WR2


1.1977 - Intraday Resistance


1.1926 - WR1


1.1895 - 1.1912 - Target Zone


1.1887 - Intraday Support


1.1829 - Weekly Pivot


Trading recommendations:


The target zone for wave 5 purple has been met and now the corrective decline might happen very soon. One more wave to the upside is being expected before any meaningful corrective cycle will start.


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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for January 13 - 2015

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Technical summary:


The correction in blue wave iv we where looking for, is unfolding nicely. We expect support at 1.5195 to be able to protect the downside for a continuation higher to 1.5297 and possibly even slightly higher to the 1.5330 - 1.5351 area before blue wave iv is over and a new decline to 1.4912 in blue wave v and red wave iii.


Trading recommendation:


We will sell EUR at 1.5320 with a stop at 1.5420.


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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for January 13 - 2015

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Technical summary:


With the break below support at 140.12, wave c of y has extended beyond what we initially expected and could decline lower towards 139.22 and maybe even lower to the 70.7% corrective target at 138.72 before the correction from 149.84 finally is over. That said a break above minor resistance at 140.88 will be the first indication that a bottom is in place, while a break above resistance at 141.73 is needed to confirm the bottom and renewed strength towards 145.35 and above 149.84 longer term.


Trading recommendation:


Our stop at 139.60 was hit for a small loss. We will buy EUR again at 138.85 or upon a break above 140.88.


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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for January 13, 2015

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When the European market opens, some economic news will be released such as Italian Industrial Production m/m, and German WPI m/m. Besides, the US will release the economic data too such as the IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism, JOLTS Job Openings, Federal Budget Balance, 10-y Bond Auction, JOLTS Job Openings, and NFIB Small Business Index. So, amid the reports, EUR/USD will move with low to medium volatility during this day.


TODAY TECHNICAL LEVELS:


Breakout BUY Level: 1.1897.


Strong Resistance:1.1890.


Original Resistance: 1.1879.


Inner Sell Area: 1.1868.


Target Inner Area: 1.1840.


Inner Buy Area: 1.1812.


Original Support: 1.1801.


Strong Support: 1.1790.


Breakout SELL Level: 1.1783.


Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.




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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for January 13, 2015

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In Asia, Japan will release the Economy Watchers Sentiment, Bank Lending y/y, and Current Account. Besides, the U.S. will publish some economic data such as IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism, JOLTS Job Openings, Federal Budget Balance, 10-y Bond Auction, JOLTS Job Openings, and NFIB Small Business Index. So, there is a big probability the USD/JPY pair will move with low to medium volatility during the day.


TODAY TECHNICAL LEVELS:


Resistance. 3: 118.50.


Resistance. 2: 118.28.


Resistance. 1: 118.05.


Support. 1: 117.76.


Support. 2: 117.54.


Support. 3: 117.30.


Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.




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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for January 13, 2015


Technical outlook and chart setups:


The EUR/JPY pair drops marginally below 140.00 levels for now taking stops out at 139.50. The pair could still turn bullish from current levels since it remains within the fibonacci 0.618 support at 140.00 levels as seen here. A bullish turn around from current levels could be bought aggressively, with risk just below 139.50. Immediate support is seen at 137.00, followed by 136.00 and lower while resistance is seen at 141.50/142.00, followed by 145.00, 147.00 and higher up respectively. The fall from 149.80 levels could still be treated as corrective in nature and bulls can regain control back till the pair remains above 134.00/135.00 levels.


Trading recommendations:


Remain flat for now. Turn bullish again on a turn around at current levels, stop at 139.00, the target is open.


Good luck!




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Technical analysis of GBP/CHF for January 13, 2015


Technical outlook and chart setups:


The GBP/CHF pair might have formed a higher low at 1.5250 levels last week. Bulls should be poised to push prices higher towards 1.5620 levels at least, as long as 1.5250 level remains intact. It is hence recommended to remain long, keeping risk just below 1.5300 levels for now. Immediate support is seen at 1.5250 levels (interim), followed by 1.5200, 1.5000 and lower while resistance is seen at 1.5450, followed by 1.5520 respectively. Looking into the wave structure, the pair should form another high (around 1.5620/30 levels), before producing a meaningful pullback.


Trading recommendations:


Remain long, stop below 1.5300, a target is open.


Good luck!




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Daily analysis of USDX for January 13, 2015

On the daily chart, the USDX is forming a bullish pattern, although the USDX has formed a fractal next to the last important high level. Therefore, the USDX could move very slowly during this week in what might be called a phase of consolidation. For now, caution is recommended when placing sell orders in the short term.


Daily chart's resistance levels: 93.44 / 96.59


Dailychart's support levels: 91.62 / 90.40


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The USDX remains under pressure by the resistance level area of 92.08 on the H1 chart and this has made this instrument to remain below that level. For now, the USDX could conduct again a rebound near the support level of 91.66. On the upside road, if the USDX is able to consolidate above the level of 92.08, it would be expected to rise to the level of 92.51.


H1 chart's resistance levels: 92.08 / 92.51


H1 chart's support levels: 91.66 / 91.24


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Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place buy (long) orders only if the USD Index breaks with a bullish candlestick; the resistance level is at 92.08, take profit is at 92.51, and stop loss is at 91.66.


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Daily analysis of GBP/USD for January 13, 2015

The GBP/USD pair was not marked by much activity during yesterday's session on the daily chart, as this pair continues to make retracements for the current bearish bias. Therefore, the GBP/USD pair could gain ground until the resistance level of 1.5266 in the coming days and this would be a good target for intraday traders. However, the bearish outlook remains alive in the long term.


Dailychart's resistance levels: 1.5266 / 1.5407


Dailychart's support levels: 1.5159 / 1.5015


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On the H1 chart, GBP/USD has made a rebound at the support level of 1.5110 so far. This pair continues to move in a low range and without a trend fairly solid so far, in the intraday term. However, in the downside road, the GBP/USD pair is likely to try a breakout at the support level of 1.5146.


H1 chart's resistance levels: 1.5198 / 1.5249


H1 chart's support levels: 1.5146 / 1.5110


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Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place sell (short) orders only if the GBP/USD pair breaks a bearish candlestick; the support level is at 1.5146, take profit is at 1.5110, and stop loss is at 1.5183.


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Daily analysis of major pairs for January 13, 2015

EUR/USD: This pair has not moved significantly this week. The long-term bias is bearish but it now appears that the bearish pressure in the market is thinning out. While the price may test the resistance lines at 1.1800 and 1.1750 respectively, there could be a serious short-term rally after that.


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USD/CHF: This currency trading instrument has not assumed a serious directional bias this week, although the long-term bias is bullish. It is probable that the resistance levels at 1.0200 and 1.0250 might be tested successively. In fact, the resistance levels may serve as impediment to further rallies, because the price may nosedive from there, testing the support level at 1.0050.


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GBP/USD: The Cable is making effort to go bullish but the overall outlook is bearish. Since the price touched the accumulation territory at 1.5050, the market has moved upwards by more than 120 pips, now moving close to the distribution territory at 1.5200. It is only a movement above the distribution territory at 1.5300 that can threaten the extant bearish bias.


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USD/JPY: In spite of the high volatility on the USD/JPY pair, the influence of bears can still be seen. The price is now under the supply level at 118.50, and there is a possibility that the price may test the demand level at 117.50; even if there is going to be a rally after that.


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EUR/JPY: This cross has continued its southward attempt in a slow and steady manner. The price is very close to the demand zone at 139.50, which could be tested (it could even be breached to the upside).


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Technical analysis of AUD/USD for January 13, 2015

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Overview :



  • The support of the AUD/USD pair has already set at the price of 0.8116. On H1 chart, the ratio of 50% Fibonacci retracement levels coincides with the support today. Moreover, it should be noted that the minor resistance will set at the 0.8195 price on the same day. So, according to the previous events, the AUD/USD pair is going to move between the resistance and the support. As a rule, history will probably repeat itself at this level again. Therefore, we expect a range about 79 pips (0.8195 - 0.8116). Consequently, if the trend fails to close below the level of 0.8115, then it will be a good opportunity to buy above 0.8115 with the first target at 0.6167 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement levels). Then, it will be continued straight towards 0.8195 (0.8204: 78,6% Fibonacci retracement levels). Nevertheless, the stop-loss should always be taken into account because it should never exceed your maximum exposure amounts. Thus, the best location to set your stop-loss should be placed below the level of 0.8103.



Observations :



  • According to the previous events, the AUD/USD pair is going to move between 0.8130 and 0.8175 this week.

  • The resistance will be set at the level of 0.8195.

  • The support has already been placed at the price of 0.8104.

  • We expect a new range about 159 pips this week (daily rane will be around 79 pips maximum).

  • The key level will set at the level of 0.8155.

  • If there is no significant news to influence, the market price will be moving from pivot point to resistance 1 or support 1. But if there is significant news to influence, the market price may go straight through resistance 1 or support 1 and reach resistance 2 or support 2 and even resistance 3 or support 3.



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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for January 13, 2015

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Forecast :



  • According to the previous events, the NZD/USD pair has still been moving between 0.7835 and 0.7745.

  • Strong resistance will be formed at the level of 0.7864 (the double top on H1 chart) providing a clear signal for sell deals with the targets seen at 0.7791 and 0.7740.

  • Stop-loss is to be placed above 0.87893.

  • The strong level (support) will be formed at the mark of 0.7741 providing a clear signal for buy deals with the target seen at the 0.7835 level.

  • Stop-loss is to be placed below 0.7719.



Notes :



  • The level of 0.7780 is representing the daily pivot point.

  • The double top will be set at the level of 0.7864.

  • We expect a range of 62 pips today. But it should be noted that the risk of 42 pips must make a profit of 63 pips.

  • Volatility: 162.451. Therefore, the market indicates the higher volatility.

  • The value of 50% Fibonacci retracement levels is 0.7741 (for confirming for the bullish market).



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GBP/USD intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for January 12, 2015

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Overview:


The GBP/USD pair has been moving downwards respecting the depicted bearish channel since mid-September when the ongoing channel was initiated.


Recently, the market failed to express a bullish breakout above the price level of 1.5760 (the upper limit of the daily bearish channel).


Instead, an extensive bearish pressure was applied against the price levels of 1.5540-1.5560 (this breakdown was successfully executed on December 23).


A daily closure below the recent bottoms established around 1.5540-1.5560 rendered the previous consolidation range as a bearish flag pattern with "projection target" at 1.5300.


The market has already pushed further below this level reaching down to 1.5030 affected by the U.S. dollar strength these days.


The key-support zone for today's movement is located at 1.5100-1.5120. On the other hand, fixation above the price level of 1.5175 pauses the current bearish decline exposing price level of 1.5260, 1.5370 and 1.5410.


However, within such strong bearish trend, you should note that H4 fixation below 1.5100 indicates further bearish tendency on the market, probably, new lows below 1.5030 are going to be hit.


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USD/CAD intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for January 12, 2015

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Overview:


Few months ago, the price levels around 1.0620 (the lower limit of the depicted chart) initiated the current strong uptrend within the depicted daily channel.


During the past few weeks, the USD/CAD pair established a temporary consolidation zone between price levels of 1.1560 and 1.1670.


Bullish breakout above these zones allowed bulls to reach new highs around 1.1800, 1.1850 and recently 1.1900 where the upper limit of the bullish channel is roughly located.


As a conservative trader, you should know that price zone of 1.1665-1.1580 remains the nearest SUPPORT zone for the current prices. LONG positions are suggested at retesting this price zone.


You should also note the wedge pattern being expressed around price zone of 1.1850-1.1900 where the upper limit of the depicted movement channel is located. This pattern may indicate bearish reversal if confirmed with bearish breakdown of price zone of 1.1800-1.1780.


Trading recommendations:


As mentioned, risky traders should only look for SHORT positions around such high prices. The stop loss should be placed slightly above 1.1930.


LONG positions are suggested at retesting of price zone of 1.1665-1.1580 which is a newly established SUPPORT zone.


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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for January 12, 2015

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The EUR/USD pair continued to move lower after breaking below the major DEMAND LEVEL at 1.2250 exposing the price levels of 1.2120 and 1.2000 .


Further actions from the ECB regarding QE are still doubted. The market was expecting the US Non-Farm Employment indicator to drop on Friday. Moreover, the latest Euro Zone manufacturing release was not that good. All these reasons led to the current negative EUR/USD pair sentiment.


The EUR/USD pair has lost almost 200 pips since the year of 2015 started, as the market is pushing towards its lowest levels since December 2009.


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The market currently looks oversold below the price level of 1.2000 and 1.1950 (prominent psychological SUPPORT & the lower limit of the movement channel on the H4 chart).


Currently, selling the EUR/USD pair is considered a high-risk position at such historically low prices.


Bullish pullback should be anticipated looking for better prices to sell the pair off.


The price level of 1.1950 is the recently established SUPPLY level. Intraday short positions can be taken there provided that the market keeps trading below price level of 1.2000.


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