Fed: What determines the future direction of the euro?

The euro continued trading near the upper limit of the side channel, showing very low market volatility recently.

The news, stating that consumer sentiment in Germany should remain stable in March of this year, did not really lead to a rise in the euro while many economists expect expectations of the economy to deteriorate in the future.

According to the GfK report, the leading consumer confidence index in Germany was 10.8 points in March 2019 and remained unchanged compared in February, which was fully in line with economists' forecasts.

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GfK noted that a number of consumers really understand the increased risks of a recession in the German economy. Thus, consumer expectations regarding the economy in February dropped to 4.2 points from 10.7 points. However, the indicator of expectations regarding revenues grew slightly and amounted to 60.0 points in February against 59.9 points in the previous month.

The French data also inspired some optimism in traders who are counting on a breakthrough of the strong resistance level of 1.1370 and further growth of the European currency.

According to the data, the consumer confidence index in France increased slightly in February of this year, reaching 95 points versus 92 points in January of this year. Economists had expected the January consumer confidence in France to remain unchanged this month. Good consumer confidence has a positive effect on the desire to spend, as well as on the attitude to the economy, which increases consumer spending and stimulates economic growth.

As for the technical picture of the EUR/USD pair, it remained unchanged.

The main task of buyers of risky assets is to break through the maximum of last week and go beyond the level of 1.1370, which is the upper limit of the side channel. Only this will allow us to expect a larger increase in the euro with testing of highs in the region of 1.1400 and 1.1440. In the case of a bearish scenario, which is also likely under the current market conditions, a breakthrough in support of 1.1325 may lead to an immediate sale and an update of 1.1280 and 1.1240 lows of the EUR/USD pair.

In the afternoon, the attention of traders will focus on the speech of US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. Today, hearings in the Senate Banking Committee will begin and the following day, he will speak before the Financial Services Committee.

The main questions will concern the prospects of raising interest rates this year to reduce the Fed's balance sheet, as well as price stability.

The direction in the EUR/USD pair, which is very difficult to determine lately, will depend most likely on what Powell says.

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GBP / USD plan for the American session on February 26. Pound buyers keep pushing the market

To open long positions on the GBP / USD pair, you need:

The pound broke above the resistance of 1.3150, which led to the expected target to be near 1.3214, which I paid attention to in my morning forecast. At the moment, the expectations associated with the Brexit postponement can help the GBP/USD pair to consolidate above the resistance of 1.3214, which will give a new upward impulse and lead the pair to the area of maximum 1.3261 and 1.3348, where I recommend taking profits. In the case of a downward correction of the pound in the second half of the day, long positions can return to rebound from the support of 1.3149.

To open short positions on the GBP / USD pair, you need:

Sellers showed themselves from the resistance level of 1.3214, which I paid attention to in the morning review. While the trade is conducted below this range, the GBP/USD bears can return to the support area of 1.3149, where I recommend taking profits. In the event of further upward movement and consolidation above 1.3214, which will depend on the news from Brexit and the performance of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, it is best to expect new short positions to rebound from the highs of 1.3261 and 1.3348.

More in the video forecast for February 26

Indicator signals:

Moving averages

Trade is conducted above the 30- and 50-medium moving, which indicates the bullish nature of the market.

Bollinger bands

In the case of a downward correction, the support will be provided by the average Bollinger Bands indicator around 1.3149.

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Description of indicators

MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow

MA (moving average) 30 days - green

MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9

Bollinger Bands 20

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR / USD plan for the US session on February 26. Euro cannot cope with the level of 1.1370 while traders wait for the speech

To open long positions on EUR / USD pair, you need:

The technical picture of the EUR/USD pair remains unchanged compared to the morning forecast, except for the fact that the pair tried to break above the upper limit of the side channel once again but the attempt was unsuccessful. A breakout and consolidation above the resistance of 1.1367 are still required, which will lead to a larger upward correction already in the area of maximum 1.1394 and 1.1432, where I recommend taking profits. In the event of a EUR/USD decline, long positions can be opened on the condition that a false breakdown is formed in the support area of 1.1324 or on a rebound from a minimum of 1.1279.

To open short positions on EUR / USD pair, you need:

The absence of important fundamental statistics helps the euro but for today, all attention will be focused on the speech of Fed Chairman Jarom Powell before the Congress. Just like yesterday, the sellers still formed a false breakdown at the level of 1.1367 and counting on a downward correction to the support area of 1.1324, where I recommend taking profits. The main goal remains to be the breakdown to the lower boundary of the side channel and a decline to the area of 1.1279 minimum. However, this movement will depend on the prospects of the US economy that will be outlined by the Fed Chairman today. With the option of a further upward correction and a break of 1.1367, the euro can be sold for a rebound from the maximum of 1.1394 and 1.1432.

More in the video forecast for February 26

Indicator signals:

Moving averages

Trade remains in the region of 30- and 50-moving averages, which indicates the lateral nature of the market.

Bollinger bands

Bollinger Bands indicator volatility is very low, which does not give signals on market entry.

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Description of indicators

MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow

MA (moving average) 30 days - green

MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9

Bollinger Bands 20

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Pound may rise to $1.38 in case of a Brexit transaction

Today, the sterling pound against the dollar jumped to its highest level since the end of January against the background of news implying a possible postponement of Brexit.

British Prime Minister Theresa May is ready to propose the Parliament to postpone the date of the country's withdrawal from the EU from the end of March to a later date, according to the newspaper, The Sun.

In addition, it was reported that the European Commission could consider the question of a two-year postponement of Brexit. Moreover, representatives of the Labor Party are promoting the idea of holding a second referendum.

As for Theresa May, on the eve she stated that the UK and the EU countries are set to implement Brexit without delay.

Meanwhile, according to Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken (SEB) experts, even if eventually London and Brussels reached an agreement, the problems for the pound will not end there.

"Another threat to the British currency lies in the country's weakening economy. Therefore, any pound rally is likely to be limited," the experts said.

In turn, analysts at Aberdeen Standard Investments believe that the pound could rise to $1.38 in the event of a Brexit deal. However, the UK economy will need to overcome some structural damage in order for the GBP/USD pair to consolidate above the level of 1.40.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Bitcoin analysis for February 26, 2019

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BTC has been trading sideways at the price of $3.857. Anyway, in our opinion the upward correction came to an end (bearish flag completed), which is a sign that buying looks risky. We do expect more downside on the BTC. Key short-term support is set at the price of $3.611. Short -term resistance at the price of $3.930.

Trading recommendation: We are bearish on BTC from $3.854 with stop at $3.945. Profit target is set at the price of $3.611.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

February 26, 2019 : GBP/USD Bullish Flag pattern is being demonstrated.

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On December 12, the previously-dominating bearish momentum came to an end when the GBP/USD pair visited the price levels of 1.2500 where the backside of the broken daily uptrend was located.

Since then, the current bullish swing has been taking place until January 28 when the GBP/USD pair was almost approaching the supply level of 1.3240 where the recent bearish pullback was initiated.

Shortly after, the GBP/USD pair lost its bullish persistence above 1.3155. Hence, the short-term scenario turned bearish towards 1.2920 (38.2% Fibonacci) then 1.2820-1.2800 (50% Fibonacci level) within the depicted H4 bearish channel.

On February 15, significant bullish recovery was demonstrated around 1.2800-1.2820 (Fibonacci 50% level) resulting in a Bullish Engulfing daily candlestick.

This initiated the current bullish breakout above the depicted H4 bearish channel. Quick bullish movement was demonstrated towards 1.3155 and remaining bullish targets are projected towards 1.3240 and 1.3290.

Bullish persistence above the depicted supply levels (1.3240-1.3155) is a MUST so that the current bullish movement can pursue towards higher bullish targets.

Any bearish breakdown below 1.3155 invalidates the whole bullish scenario for the short-term allowing sideway consolidations to occur.

Trade Recommendations :

Intraday traders was recommended to watch for the recent bullish breakout above 1.3100 for a bullish continuation position aiming for 1.3240 as initial target. S/L should be advanced to 1.3170 to secure some profits.

Today, bullish breakout above 1.3240 on H4 chart should be considered for another continuation BUY position. T/P levels to be located around 1.3290, 1.3390. S/L to be located below 1.3155.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP/USD analysis for February 26, 2019

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GBP/USD has been trading upwards as we expected. The price tested the level of 1.3220 and reached our first target. According to the H1 time – frame, we don't see any signs of reversal, which is sign that GBP/USD is expected to still trade higher. The next key resistance level is set at the price of 1.3293. In case you see the breakout of the 1.3300, the next target will be 1.3540 (Fibonacci expansion 100%)

Trading recommendation: We closed half of the position with profit of 1,500,000 pips. On the second half of a position target is placed at 1.3540.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR / USD: The speech of the Fed Chairman in the Congress as the central event of the day

Despite yesterday's growth, the euro-dollar pair continues to trade in a flat without leaving the border of the 13th figure. However, the results of today can give a tone to trading and "push out" the price beyond the multi-day range. In Tuesday's economic calendar, it full of events that will take place mainly during the American session.

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The central event of the day is a speech by Jerome Powell in front of the congressmen, where he will announce the semi-annual report. This is a very important event, which takes place only twice a year. It is worth noting that this report was postponed several times due to the protracted shutdown but today, the Fed chairman will still go to Capitol Hill to take part in the meeting of the US Congress. The head of the Fed will communicate with the American deputies for two days to discuss the economic prospects of the country and the prospects of monetary policy.

In addition to the report itself, the head of the Fed will answer the questions posed before the two specialized committees. Here, it is worth paying attention to several aspects in the context of the recently published minutes of the January Fed meeting. Let me remind you that this document was rather "dovish" since, after its release, investors reduced the likelihood of a rate hike this year. This is not surprising given the statements of the members of the regulator saying that the rate should be raised only if inflationary figures exceed basic forecasts. Simultaneously with this conclusion, the Fed has stated that the price pressure in the country is weakening. Hence, the core inflation will be below the target two percent level for a "long time". In general, the dynamics of key indicators suggest that Core CPI will fluctuate in the area of current levels with no hint of strong growth. In turn, this means that the regulator will not change the parameters of monetary policy in the near future.

But the question of "how long is the Fed ready to take a pause?" -is open. Thus, Jerome Powell may outline temporary guidelines today. Currency strategists have different opinions on this. According to some experts, the regulator will wait until at least March 2020. According to other analysts, the Fed will still decide on one rate increase in December of this year, if inflation stays at least at current levels. There are more radical scenarios, for example, some economists assume a reduction of the interest rate by 25 basis points and such a scenario does not look very fantastic, given the similar rhetoric of individual members of the Fed, particularly, Raphael Bostic and James Bullard.

This is the reason why Jerome Powell's performance today is so important. I doubt that he will allow the rate to decrease (even in a veiled form).In this case, he will cause severe turbulence in the markets and the dollar will sharply fall in price throughout the market. Nevertheless, he can make it clear that the monetary tightening cycle has already been completed. The rate has reached its neutral level and the Fed will continue to wait. In this case, the probability of a rate hike this year will drop to zero and although this scenario has already been taken into account in varying degrees at current prices, its implementation will undoubtedly put pressure on the American currency.

Jerome Powell will also probably touch on another burning issue, which concerns the reduction of assets on the Fed's balance sheet. Two weeks ago, Lael Brainard, a member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve, stated that this process should be stopped already this year. In her opinion, she said, "the regulator needs a substantial buffer in order to avoid volatility". Brainard's comments provoked volatility among dollar pairs as the market finally heard a clear position on this issue. If today Powell gives a similar opinion, which is very likely to happen, then the dollar will again be under a certain pressure.

In addition to the speech of the Fed, it is also necessary for today to pay attention to the publication of the indicator of consumer confidence in the United States. Last month, this figure fell to 120 points, which was the lowest value since July 2017. Today, experts predict its recovery to 124 points. If their expectations are not met, the EUR/USD pair will receive another reason to test the 14th figure.

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Thus, it will not be easy for dollar bulls today. Powell is unlikely to change its rhetoric radically, and macroeconomic statistics can only aggravate the general fundamental background for the greenback. In this context, the first priority of EUR/USD buyers is to break through the resistance level of 1.1395 which is the lower limit of the Kumo cloud on the daily chart and gain a foothold in the 14th figure area. The support level of the price will be 1.1301, which is the Tenkan-sen line on a similar timeframe.

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Wave analysis of GBP / USD for February 26. The pound continues to grow, risking to break the downward trend

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Wave counting analysis:

On February 25, the GBP / USD pair gained about 25 basis points, however, this was enough to exceed the maximum of the assumed wave 2. Thus, the entire wave 2 takes an elongated form and shows readiness to continue its construction. The internal wave structure of this wave took the form of a three-wave. However, the maximum goal of this wave cannot be higher than 100.0% Fibonacci. Going beyond this level will require new adjustments for the current wave marking. While small chances for the resumption of decline remain. The news background is now controversial. There is no positive news on Brexit, unless, of course, the positive postponement of the Brexit period from 2 months to 2 years is considered positive.

The objectives for the option with purchases:

1.3109 - 76.4% of Fibonacci

The objectives for the option with sales:

1.2734 - 61.8% of Fibonacci

1.2619 - 76.4% of Fibonacci

General conclusions and trading recommendations:

The wave pattern still assumes the construction of a downward wave, however, after yesterday's breakthrough of the previous maximum, the chances for this have decreased significantly. Thus, now I recommend to wait for a new signal about the completion of the rising wave 2 and sell the pair with targets located near the calculated levels of 1.2826 and 1.2734, which equates to 50.0% and 61.8% Fibonacci. Particular attention is paid to any reports on the topic Brexit.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Analysis of Gold for February 26, 2019

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Gold has been trading downwards. The price tested the level of $1.324.90. Anyway, according to the H1 time – frame, I found that Gold is in a corrective phase and that a potential bullish flag pattern is in creation which is a sign that upward price is expected. The key short-term support remains at $1.320.50.

To open long positions on Gold you need:

Aggressive entry: You can buy at $1.324.50 even before the completion of the bearish correction and put SL below $1.320.00.

Conservative entry: You can wait breakout of the bearish flag and resistance at $1.329.40 to confirm the upward movement. The protective stop can be placed at $1.320.00 and target at $1.335.00-$1.342.00.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

February 26, 2019 : EUR/USD is still holding some bullish gains around the lower limit of its channel.

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Since June 2018, the EUR/USD pair has been moving sideways with slight bearish tendency within the depicted bearish Channel (In RED).

On November 13, the EUR/USD pair demonstrated recent bullish recovery around 1.1220-1.1250 where the current bullish movement above the depicted short-term bullish channel (In BLUE) was initiated.

Bullish fixation above 1.1430 was needed to enhance further bullish movement towards 1.1520. However, the market has been demonstrating obvious bearish rejection around 1.1430 few times so far.

The EUR/USD pair has lost its bullish momentum since January 31 when a bearish engulfing candlestick was demonstrated around 1.1514 where another descending high was established then.

This allowed the current bearish movement to occur towards 1.1300-1.1270 where the lower limit of the depicted DAILY channel came to meet the pair.

Since February 20, the EUR/USD pair has been demonstrating weak bullish recovery with sideway consolidations around the depicted price zone (1.1300-1.1270). Temporary bearish breakdown of the depicted technical limit was demonstrated as well.

Yesterday, significant bullish recovery has emerged indicating a high probability of a quick bullish visit towards 1.1400-1.1460 where the upper limit of the daily movement channel is located.

On the other hand, Please note that a bearish flag pattern may become confirmed if bearish persistence below 1.1250 is achieved on the daily basis. Pattern target is projected towards 1.1000.

Trade Recommendations:

A counter-trend BUY entry was already suggested near the price level (1.1285) (the lower limit of the depicted movement channel).

T/P level to be located around 1.1350 and 1.1420 while S/L should be advanced to entry level (1.1285) to offset the associated risk.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of USD/CHF for February 26, 2019

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Overview: The USD/CHF pair continues to move upwards from the level of 1.0003. Today, the first support level is currently seen at 1.0003, the price is moving in a bullish channel now. Furthermore, the price has been set above the strong support at the level of 0.9982, which coincides with the 50% Fibonacci retracement level. This support has been rejected three times confirming the veracity of an uptrend. According to the previous events, we expect the USD/CHF pair to trade between 1.0003 and 1.0067. So, the support stands at 1.0003, while daily resistance is found at 1.0067. Therefore, the market is likely to show signs of a bullish trend around the spot of 1.0003. In other words, buy orders are recommended above the spot of 1.0003 with the first target at the level of 1.0067; and continue towards 1.0103 and 1.0140. However, if the USD/CHF pair fails to break through the resistance level of 1.0030 today, the market will decline further to 0.9908.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of EUR/USD for February 26, 2019

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Overview:

The EUR/USD pair below around the weekly pivot point (1.1393). It continued to move downwards from the level of 1.1393 to the bottom around 1.1335. Today, the first resistance level is seen at 1.1393 followed by 1.1426, while daily support 1 is seen at 1.1335. Furthermore, the moving average (100) starts signaling a downward trend; therefore, the market is indicating a bearish opportunity below 1.1393. So it will be good to sell at 1.1393 with the first target of 1.1335. It will also call for a downtrend in order to continue towards 1.1294. The strong daily support is seen at the 1.1254 level. According to the previous events, we expect the EUR/USD pair to trade between 1.1393 and 1.1254 in coming hours. The price area of 1.1393 remains a significant resistance zone. Thus, the trend is still bearish as long as the level of 1.1393 is not broken. On the contrary, in case a reversal takes place and the EUR/USD pair breaks through the resistance level of 1.1393, then a stop loss should be placed at 1.1453.

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Fundamental Analysis of USDCAD for February 26, 2019

USD/CAD has been quite volatile and indecisive at the edge of 1.3200 area from where the pair is likely to extend bearish momentum.

Ahead of a CPI report this week, CAD has been quite weak against USD, so the pair is trading under bullish pressure along the way. On Wednesday, Canada's CPI report is going to be published. Consumer prices are expected to increase to 0.2% from the previous value of -0.1%. Moreover, Common CPI is expected to be unchanged at 1.9%, Median CPI is expected to be unchanged as well at 1.8%, and Trimmed CPI is also expected to be unchanged at 1.9%. A slump of oil prices accounts for CAD weakness as the Canadian economy has a direct link to this commodity.

Canada stocks were higher after the close yesterday that indicates optimistic sentiment in Canada's financial markets. The rising stocks outpaced the declining ones which seemed to attract more investors to CAD when investors made trading decisions.

On the USD side, the US economy has been operating at full employment with the FED having reached the 2% inflation target. Most of the FED officials are quite positive about growth rates of the domestic economy and want the funds rate to be held unchanged and sustain the growth further. However, the US economic growth has been dented by headwinds like the government shutdown and the trade protectionism. According to FED's Kaplan, the US central bank is currently looking forward to boost employment further. The unemployment rate at 4% is quite favorable and better than what the policymakers expected.

At present, the missing element to boost economic growth is solid economic reports from the US. If upbeat data comes true, this will encourage impulsive gains on the USD side in the coming days. Today FED Chairman Powell is going to deliver a semi-annual testimony. His speech is expected to contain optimistic notes. CB Consumer Confidence report is expected to increase to 124.8 from the previous figure of 120.2. Ahead of NFP next week, any positive economic report is expected to reinforce USD as employment increase influences the NFP reports directly.

Meanwhile, CAD is expected to regain certain momentum until it resides below 1.3200-1.3350 resistance area if the upcoming economic reports from Canada come in better than expected. Otherwise, any positive outcome in the US economic reports and events may lead to a strong counter-trend with an impulsive bullish move breaking above 1.3350 with a daily close above it for further upward pressure. According to Hidden Divergence method as it is spotted in this pair, the bearish pressure is expected to continue further.

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Theresa May retreats and ready to postpone Brexit

Main news: The Prime Minister of Britain is ready to postpone the date for Brexit.

This is the defeat of British Prime Minister May but perhaps good news for the whole of Britain. On Tuesday morning, unofficial reports were released saying that May is ready to postpone the Brexit date with the official Brexit date already on March 29.

The leader of the rival political party, Jeremy Corbyn of Labor party, immediately announced that the opposition will seek a repeat Brexit referendum.

Anyway, the question of Britain's release date can give a lot of extra time considering that the output can be postponed for a year as an example.

The market is waiting for an impetus for the spring trend. For this week, there is more important news in the US which is the Fed's speech on the semi-annual monetary policy report to Congress on Wednesday, February 27, and the US GDP report for the 4th quarter on February 28.

The euro is waiting for an impulse to exit the 4-month consolidation and price trend.

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Wave analysis of EUR / USD for February 26. The euro is trading in a narrow price range.

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Wave counting analysis:

On Monday, February 25, trading ended for EUR / USD by an increase of 20 basis points, but it was not possible to get beyond the maximum of the expected wave 4. Thus, there is still reason to assume that wave 4 is complete. However, I recommend not to hurry to start sales without confirming the development of this option. There is an option in which a successful attempt to break through the 50.0% level along the small Fibonacci grid will lead to a lengthening of wave 4, which can still be completely transformed into a wave a of the new uptrend. Today in the US Congress will be the speech of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, and the movement of the pair after it will depend on the nature of its rhetoric.

The objectives for the option with sales:

1.1228 - 0.0% of Fibonacci

1.1215 - 0.0% of Fibonacci

The objectives for the option with purchases:

1.1356 - 23.6% of Fibonacci

1.1408 - 61.8% of Fibonacci

General conclusions and trading recommendations:

The pair supposedly completed building wave 4. Thus, if the level of 23.6% holds, then I recommend selling the pair to build wave 5 of the downtrend with targets located near the calculated levels of 1.1228 and 1.1215 and below. A successful attempt to break through the 50.0% level will indicate that the pair is ready to continue building the upward wave. In this case, you can buy a pair with a target of 1.1408.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR and GBP: Fed rates are at the lower limit of the neutral range. The pound is growing on rumors of a deferment of Brexit

The euro remained to be traded in a narrow range, and the British pound updated the next monthly highs after the next rumors about the postponement of Brexit.

The absence of important statistics did not prevent euro buyers from maintaining their positions in the area of 1.1365 large resistance level, which last week did not manage to get outside.

Data on stocks of wholesale companies, which rose in December, did not lead to changes in the market. According to a report by the US Department of Commerce, inventories in the wholesale trade in December 2018 increased by 1.1% compared with the previous month. Economists had expected growth of 0.4%. Compared to the same period of the previous year, stocks rose by 7.3%.

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The index of national activity of the Fed Chicago declined in January. The fall was due to a decline in industrial production, as well as personal consumption.

According to the data, the index fell to -0.43 points in January against 0.05 points in December. A decrease in the index below zero indicates that the growth of the economy is below average. Production indicators fell in January to -0.45 points from 0.08 points in December.

Yesterday a number of speeches by representatives of the Federal Reserve System also took place. The most interesting statements were made by the Governor of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, Raphael Bostic. Bostic said he expects one rate increase this year and one in 2020, as the Fed rate is close and is at the lower limit of the neutral range.

He predicts that there is still room to raise rates, but the manager would prefer that the Fed does not take any incentive position.

As for inflation, in his opinion, it does not pose a danger, as it is below the Fed's target of 2%, however, the Fed representative drew attention to some signs of excessive wage growth against the background of a strong labor market.

As for the technical picture of the EURUSD pair, it remained unchanged.

The main task of buyers of risky assets is to break through the maximum of last week and go beyond the level of 1.1370, which is the upper limit of the side channel. Only this will allow us to expect a larger increase in the euro with a test high in the region of 1.1400 and 1.1440. In the case of a bearish scenario, and it is also likely, under the current market conditions, a breakthrough in support of 1.1325 may lead to an immediate sale of EURUSD and an update of 1.1280 and 1.1240 lows.

Oil prices fell slightly after yesterday, US President Donald Trump once again tried to influence OPEC's oil policy, saying oil prices were climbing too high. He urged OPEC to relax and not rush, because, in his opinion, the world does not need too high oil prices.

The British pound yesterday made its way above the next monthly highs against the background of the next rumors that Prime Minister Theresa May may be planning to shift Brexit from March 29 to a later date. Statements from Labor Party leader Jeremy Corbyn, the intention to support the second Brexit referendum, also supported the British pound in the afternoon.

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GBP / USD. February 26th. The trading system. "Regression Channels". If parliament blocks the deal on March 12, Brexit will

4-hour timeframe

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Technical details:

The senior linear regression channel: direction - up.

The junior linear regression channel: direction - down.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - up.

CCI: 77.1818

The currency pair GBP / USD resumed the upward movement. Theresa May, in response to the initiative of some members of parliament to dismiss her in May 2019, announced that she was not going to resign, and Brexit was not her only mission. In this interview, May also focused on the date of March 29th. However, the following message from London says that Theresa May is ready to ask the EU to postpone the Brexit date for two months if parliament blocks its agreement by voting on March 12. The European Union itself is ready to transfer the date of the "divorce" to the year, that is, to 2021. Thus, it appears that all the threats to May about the disordered Brexit are nothing more than a bluff. Premier understands that the "hard" version of Brexit is not needed by anyone. Previously, she used it to pressure parliamentarians who did not want to accept her Brexit plan. Now, it becomes clear that the parliament is not in the wake of May, so you need to postpone the country's withdrawal from the EU and continue negotiations with the EU. Although, from our point of view, in two months, it is hardly possible to solve all the problems that the parties had not been able to solve in two years. Given the EU's willingness to postpone Brexit for two years, the whole situation looks like the unwillingness of at least one of the parties to bring the divorce process to the end. Laborites are already proposing to hold a new referendum on the country's future stay in the EU. Today in Labor, Labor leader Jeremy Corbyn will come up with his alternative Brexit plan, as well as make a number of demands on a deal with the EU.

Nearest support levels:

S1 - 1.3123

S2 - 1.3062

S3 - 1.3000

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 - 1.3184

R2 - 1.3245

R3 - 1.3306

Trading recommendations:

The pair GBP / USD resumed its uptrend. Now are valid purchase orders with the aim of 1.3184. The expected downward reversal has not yet occurred, and Heikin Ashi paints the bar's purple, so the upward trend continues.

Short positions are recommended to open if the pair overcome the moving. In this case, the trend in the instrument will change to downward, and the first goal will be the Murray level of 1.2939.

In addition to the technical picture should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanations for illustrations:

The senior linear regression channel is the blue lines of the unidirectional movement.

The junior linear channel is the purple lines of the unidirectional movement.

CCI is the blue line in the indicator regression window.

The moving average (20; smoothed) is the blue line on the price chart.

Murray levels - multi-colored horizontal stripes.

Heikin Ashi is an indicator that colors bars in blue or purple.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR / USD. February 26th. The trading system. "Regression Channels". The key event of the day: Jerome Powell's speech

4-hour timeframe

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Technical details:

The senior linear regression channel: direction - sideways.

The junior linear regression channel: direction - down.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - up.

CCI: 114.7541

The currency pair EUR / USD on Tuesday, February 26, is moving upwards with great difficulty. However, in general, instrument volatility has been low in recent days, and important macroeconomic data have not been available to traders. There will not be a single important report published in the eurozone and the States today, but today Jerome Powell will give a speech in Congress. The head of the Fed will announce a report on the topic of economics and monetary policy, which is what excites and interests traders most of all. Thus, there are some hopes for increased activity today. The market participants are mainly interested in questions whether there will be a rise in the key rate this year and will the Fed unload its own balance sheet? The topic of inflation in the United States, the trade war and China, and its impact on the economy of the States - will also interest traders. What to expect from the speech of Powell? We believe that if the market receives unambiguous signals, there may be no rate hike this year or that the Fed is ready to complete a program to sell assets on its balance sheet after the QE program, this could put pressure on the US dollar. Otherwise, since Powell has no reason to abruptly change the rhetoric to "hawkish", no reaction to his speech may follow.

Nearest support levels:

S1 - 1.1353

S2 - 1.1292

S3 - 1.1230

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 - 1.1414

R2 - 1.1475

R3 - 1.1536

Trading recommendations:

The EUR / USD currency pair continues the weak upward movement. Therefore, formally long positions are now relevant, but the pair is still a big problem with overcoming the level of 1.1365, which can be clearly seen on the chart.

Short positions can be considered after the price is fixed below the moving average. In this case, the trend in the instrument will change to downward, and the first goal will be the level of 1.1292.

In addition to the technical picture should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanations for illustrations:

The senior linear regression channel is the blue lines of the unidirectional movement.

The younger linear regression channel is the purple lines of the unidirectional movement.

CCI - blue line in the indicator window.

The moving average (20; smoothed) is the blue line on the price chart.

Murray levels - multi-colored horizontal stripes.

Heikin Ashi is an indicator that colors bars in blue or purple.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP / USD: plan for the European session on February 26. The pound is reinforced by rumors of a Brexit extension

To open long positions on GBP / USD you need:

The British pound continues to strengthen against the backdrop of optimism that the British Prime Minister Theresa May will be able to reach an agreement on the extension of Brexit, but I do not recommend to rush into purchases. The optimal scenario for opening long positions will be the support test 1.3098, with the formation of a false breakdown on it. Otherwise, you can buy immediately to rebound from 1.3053. If buyers manage to cling to the resistance of 1.3149, and this can happen after the speech of the Governor of the Bank of England Mark Carney in the first half of the day, the demand for the pound will lead to highs around 1.3214 and 1.3261, where I recommend fixing the profits.

To open short positions on GBP / USD you need:

Sellers need the next formation of a false breakdown in the resistance area of 1.3149, with confirmation of the divergence on the MACD indicator. This will lead to a deeper downward correction in the minimum area of 1.3098 and 1.3053, where I recommend fixing the profits. When scenarios of further growth with the trend, you can open short positions from a maximum of 1.3214 and 1.3261. But we must not forget that any negative news on Brexit can seriously affect the customers, forcing them to fix their long positions.

Indicator signals:

Moving Averages

Trade is conducted above the 30-day and 50-day moving, which indicates further growth of the market.

Bollinger bands

A break of the upper border of the Bollinger Bands indicator near 1.3157 will lead to a new wave of pound growth. In the case of a decrease in the pound, support will be provided by the lower limit of the indicator in the area of 1.3053.

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Description of indicators

  • MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow
  • MA (moving average) 30 days - green
  • MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9
  • Bollinger Bands 20
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR / USD: plan for the European session on February 26. The bulls are preparing a breakthrough resistance of 1.1365

To open long positions on EURUSD you need:

The technical picture of the EUR / USD pair remained unchanged compared with yesterday's forecast, except for the fact that the pair returned to the upper boundary of the side channel. Breaking and consolidation above resistance 1.1367 are still required, which will lead to a larger upward correction already in the maximum area of 1.1394 and 1.1432, where I recommend fixing the profits. In the event of a EUR / USD decline, long positions can be opened on the condition that a false breakdown is formed in the support area of 1.1324, or on a rebound from the minimum of 1.1279.

To open short positions on EURUSD you need:

The lack of important fundamental statistics helps the euro. However, sellers are still counting on the formation of a false breakdown in the resistance area of 1.1367, which will lead to a downward correction to the support area of 1.1324, where I recommend fixing the profits. The main goal is to break through the lower border of the side channel and reduce to the minimum area of 1.1279. Under the option of a further upward correction and a break of 1.1367, the euro can be sold for a rebound from the maximum of 1.1394.

Indicator signals:

Moving Averages

Trade is conducted in the area of 30-day and 50-day moving averages, which again indicates market uncertainty.

Bollinger bands

The volatility of the Bollinger Bands indicator is low, which does not give signals to enter the market.

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Description of indicators

  • MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow
  • MA (moving average) 30 days - green
  • MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9
  • Bollinger Bands 20
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Trading plan for 02/26/2019

Following yesterday's results, the dollar remained almost unchanged, and its losses were purely symbolic. This is largely due to the absolutely empty macroeconomic calendar since the only indicator that could be paid attention to is the inventories in the wholesale stores in the United States, which grew by as much as 1.1%. Stocks have been growing for more than a year and quite seriously indicate the risk of a crisis of overproduction. Of course, Mark Carney was still speaking yesterday, but he did not say anything new, but only once again repeated his words about the risks and uncertainties caused by Brexit. Considering the fact that today everyone is waiting for Theresa May's speech, during which she can announce the postponement of Brexit until 2021, no one paid attention to the words of the head of the Bank of England. Indeed, the main driving force now is Brexit, or rather, the probability of postponing the UK's exit date from the European Union. The likelihood of such a development is extremely high, as the parties have not yet reached agreement on the most important issues. Thus, the postponement of Brexit gives hope that the parties will be able to agree. At least market participants want to believe this. Indeed, since 2016, the parties have not been able to agree on trade issues, since Europe itself does not need it. For two years, the European Commission torpedoed this issue. The European bureaucracy is able to do this for an arbitrarily long time. Just a couple of years will not change anything. However, the speculative growth caused by optimism, which will follow if Theresa May decides to postpone, will affect not only the pound but also the single European currency. If the Brexit transfer is not announced, it is most likely that the dollar will be able to get a stimulus for growth. However, the growth of the dollar will be limited by statistical data on construction, as the number of new buildings can be reduced by 0.5%, and the issued building permits by 2.8%. It should also be borne in mind that instead of announcing a postponement of Brexit, there may be another loud statement about reaching agreements and the like. Such stories are very popular with bidders, and they are actively buying a pound.

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The euro/dollar currency pair continues to boil up inside the 1.1325 / 1.1370 cluster, being currently at the upper boundary. It is likely to assume the preservation of this amplitude, where, in the case of fixation, is higher than 1.1375, we will easily drop to 1.1400.

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The currency pair pound/dollar still managed to overcome the previously formed accumulation of 1.3020 / 1.3000, fixing above the upper limit. Probably suppose the preservation of a temporary, bullish attitude, but if the upcoming performance of Theresa May fails, we will quickly fall into the framework of the recent clump of 1.3020 / 1.3100.

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The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Forecast for AUD / USD pair on February 26, 2019

AUD / USD pair

It took the Australian dollar two days to cover the fall of the 21st and this growth was only driven by European currencies. Again, the US administration puts pressure on the commodity market after Donald Trump tried to convince OPEC not to cut oil production and not to support oil prices yesterday. As a result, oil and iron lost by 2.78% and 1.17% ($ 87.14 per ton), respectively. Non-ferrous metals and even agricultural commodities also declined. Under such pressure, the "Australian" is unlikely to settle, even if European currencies continue to grow. Hence, we are waiting for the AUD / USD quote from the support of the price channel line in the region of 0.7000. But beforehand, the price can still grow to the upper border of the price channel to 0.7235, of course in a condition that the resistance of the MACD line (blue indicator line) on the daily chart does not stand. If the current resistance gets established, the price will not exceed yesterday's high and the Australian dollar will make a U-turn today with the second goal of 0.6885.

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The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Forecast for GBP / USD pair on February 26, 2019

GBP / USD pair

On Monday, the British pound continued the expected growth, adding 40 points to the session close. The pound is already adding 45 points in today's Asian session. The Marlin oscillators indicate further growth on the daily and H4 charts. Overcoming such level opens the next goal of 1.3257, which was the maximum of October 12 last year. It is followed by a movement towards 1.3314, which was the June 22 high of last year. The hidden threat of a reversal may be in the emerging divergence on the four-hour chart. Also, the signal level is at least in yesterday level of 1.3048.

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The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Analysis of the divergence of EUR / USD on February 26. Level 1.1358 - still an insurmountable obstacle to the euro

4h

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The EUR / USD pair on the 4-hour chart completed the next return to the correction level of 23.6% - 1.1358. A new release of quotes from this level will again allow traders to expect a reversal in favor of the American currency and a slight drop in the direction of the level of 1.1269. Closing quotes of the pair on February 26 above the Fibo level of 23.6% will increase the chances for further growth in the direction of the next correction level of 38.2% - 1.1446.

The Fibo grid was built on extremums from September 24, 2018, and November 12, 2018.

Daily

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On the 24-hour chart, the pair continues the process of weak growth in the direction of the correctional level of 100.0% - 1.1553 after rebounding from the Fibo level of 127.2% - 1.1285. Maturing divergences are not observed today on both graphs. Fixing the pair under the correction level of 127.2% will work in favor of the US dollar and resuming the fall in quotations in the direction of the Fibo level of 161.8% - 1.0941.

The Fibo grid is built on extremums from November 7, 2017, and February 16, 2018.

Recommendations to traders:

New purchases of the EUR / USD pair will be possible with the goal of 1.1446 if the pair closes above the level of 1.1358 and a Stop Loss order below the level of 23.6%.

Sales of the EUR / USD pair will be possible with the target of 1.1269, and with a Stop Loss order above the level of 1.1358, if the pair performs a new rebound from the level of 23.6%.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Analysis of the divergence of GBP / USD on February 26. A bearish divergence inclines the pound to fall again

4h

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The GBP / USD pair on the 4-hour chart made a rebound from the Fibo level of 61.8% - 1.2969, started the growth of quotations and executed a close above the correction level of 76.4% - 1.3094. As a result, on February 26, the pair continues to grow in the direction of the next correction level of 100.0% - 1.3300. A bearish divergence is at the MACD indicator: the last peak of quotes has already exceeded the previous one, which does not correspond to the indicator peaks. The formation of a bearish divergence will allow us to expect a reversal in favor of the US dollar and a slight decline in the pair. Closing quotes below the Fibo level of 76.4% will similarly work in favor of the US currency.

The Fibo grid is built on extremums from September 20, 2018, and January 3, 2019.

1h

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On the hourly chart, the pair consolidated above the correction level of 76.4% - 1.3111. Thus, today the growth can be continued in the direction of the Fibo level of 100.0% - 1.3217. None of the indicators have maturing divergences on the current chart. A close of the pair below the Fibo level of 76.4% will work in favor of the American currency and a slight fall in the direction of the correction level of 61.8% - 1.3047.

The Fibo grid is built on extremes from January 25, 2019, and February 14, 2019.

Recommendations to traders:

Purchases of the GBP / USD pair can be made now with a target of 1.3217 and a Stop Loss order below the level of 76.4%, as the pair completed the closure above the level of 1.3111 (hourly chart) and hold them until a bearish divergence is formed on the 4-hour chart.

Sales of the GBP / USD pair can be made with the target of 1.3047 and a Stop Loss order above the level of 76.4% if the pair closes below the level of 1.3111 (hourly chart).

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Forecast for EUR / USD for February 26, 2019

EUR / USD

On Monday, for the third time in the last four sessions, the euro reached the resistance of the Kruzenshtern line on a daily scale of the price chart. Today in the Asian session, the price shows the intention to finally go above this line of Kruzenshtern. The Marlin oscillator on the daily and four-hour charts has moved to the growth zone. Apparently, the price will be able to consolidate above yesterday's high, and this opens the target level of 1.1407, which is a correction level of 61.8% from the downward movement from January 31 to February 15. Fixing above 1.1407 opens the subsequent Fibonacci level of 76.4% as the target - 1.1448.

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The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Simplified wave analysis. Overview of AUD / USD for February 26

Large TF:

Throughout last year, the main direction of the pair's movement was a shift to the "south" of the schedule. The structure of this wave is not complete. The price rise of the current year will take the place of correction in it.

Small TF:

In the bullish construction of January 3, the first 2 parts (A + B) were fully formed. From February 7, the basis for the beginning of the final part (C) is created.

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Forecast and recommendations:

In the coming weeks, the final price increase of the Aussie is expected, which will complete the corrective rise. If the favorable factors coincide, the scope of price growth may exceed the minimum calculated level. Purchasing is quite risky, can be recommended only to supporters of intraday trading.

Resistance zones:

- 0.7340 / 0.7390

Support areas:

- 0.7130 / 0.7180

Explanations for the figures: The simplified wave analysis uses waves consisting of 3 parts (A – B – C). On each of the considered scales of the graph, the last, incomplete wave is analyzed. Zones show calculated areas with the highest probability of reversal. The arrows indicate the wave marking by the method used by the author. The solid background shows the formed structure, the dotted - the expected movement.

Note: The wave algorithm does not take into account the duration of tool movements over time. To conduct a trade transaction, you need confirmation signals from the trading systems you use!

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Fractal analysis of major currency pairs on February 26

Dear colleagues.

For the currency pair Euro / Dollar, the main uptrend is expected to develop after the breakdown of 1.1380 and the level of 1.1319 is the key support. For the currency pair Pound / Dollar, the price issued a small local structure for the top of February 22. For the currency pair Dollar / Franc, we should continue moving downwards after the breakdown of 0.9987 and the level of 1.0033 is the key support. For the currency pair Dollar / Yen, we are following the formation of the ascending structure of February 25. For the currency pair Euro / Yen, we expect a move to the level of 126.46 and a downward movement is considered as a correction. For the currency pair Pound / Yen, the upward movement is expected after the breakdown of 146.44 and the level of 144.86 is the key support.

Forecast for February 26:

Analytical review of H1-scale currency pairs:

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For the currency pair Euro / Dollar, the key levels on the H1 scale are 1.1423, 1.1406, 1.1379, 1.1360, 1.1333, 1.1319, 1.1298 and 1.1287. We continue to follow the development of the ascending structure of February 15. The short-term upward movement is expected in the area of 1.1360 - 1.1379 and the breakdown of the last value should be accompanied by a pronounced upward movement. The target is 1.1406. The potential value for the top is considered the level of 1.1423, upon reaching which we expect a rollback to the correction.

The short-term downward movement is possible in the area of 1.1333 - 1.1319 and the breakdown of the latter value will lead to an in-depth correction. The target is 1.1298 and the range of 1.1298 - 1.1287 is the key support for the ascending structure.

The main trend is the ascending structure of February 15.

Trading recommendations:

Buy 1.1360 Take profit: 1.1377

Buy 1.1380 Take profit: 1.1406

Sell: 1.1333 Take profit: 1.1321

Sell: 1.1317 Take profit: 1.1298

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For the currency pair Pound / Dollar, the key levels on the H1 scale are 1.3264, 1.3219, 1.3153, 1.3102, 1.3063, 1.3026 and 1.2965. The price has issued a small local structure for the top of February 22. An upward movement is expected after the breakdown of 1.3153. In this case, the goal is 1.3219. The potential value for the top is considered the level of 1.3264, upon reaching which we expect a rollback downwards.

The short-term downward movement is expected in the area of 1.3102 - 1.3063 and the breakdown of the latter value will lead to a prolonged correction. The target is 1.3026 and the breakdown of which, in turn, will have to form a downward structure. The target is 1.2965.

The main trend is the upward cycle of February 14, the local structure of February 22.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.3153 Take profit: 1.3219

Buy: 1.3222 Take profit: 1.3264

Sell: 1.3100 Take profit: 1.3065

Sell: 1.3060 Take profit: 1.3026

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For the currency pair Dollar / Franc, the key levels on the H1 scale are 1.0055, 1.0033, 1.0022, 1.0001, 0.9987, 0.9967, 0.9956 and 0.9931. We continue to monitor the downward structure of February 13. The short-term downward movement is expected in the area of 1.0001 - 0.9987. The breakdown of the latter value should be accompanied by a pronounced downward movement to the level of 0.9967 and in the area of 0.9967 - 0.9956 is the consolidation. The potential value for the bottom is considered the level of 0.9931, after reaching which we expect a rollback to the top.

The short-term upward movement is expected in the area of 1.0022 - 1.0033 and the breakdown of the last value will lead to a prolonged correction. The target is 1.0055 and this level is the key support.

The main trend is the downward cycle of February 13.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.0022 Take profit: 1.0033

Buy: 1.0035 Take profit: 1.0050

Sell: 1.0000 Take profit: 0.9989

Sell: 0.9985 Take profit: 0.9969

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For the currency pair Dollar / Yen, the key levels on the scale of H1 are 111.87, 111.69, 111.46, 111.27, 110.92, 110.76 and 110.53. We are following the formation of the ascending structure of February 25. The continuation of the movement upwards is expected after the breakdown of 111.27. In this case, the goal is 111.46 and near this level is the price consolidation. The breakdown of the level of 111.46 should be accompanied by a pronounced upward movement. The goal is 111.69. The potential value for the top is considered the level of 111.87, after reaching which we expect a departure to a correction.

The short-term downward movement is possible in the area of 110.92 - 110.76 and the breakdown of the latter value will have to develop the downward structure. In this case, the first potential target is 110.53.

The main trend is the rising structure of February 25.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 111.27 Take profit: 111.44

Buy: 111.48 Take profit: 111.69

Sell: 110.90 Take profit: 110.76

Sell: 110.74 Take profit: 110.55

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For the currency pair Canadian dollar / Dollar, the key levels on the H1 scale are 1.3283, 1.3261, 1.3229, 1.3216, 1.3198, 1.3169, 1.3150 and 1.3110. The price has issued a small ascending structure of February 25. An upward movement is expected after the breakdown of 1.3198. In this case, the target is 1.3216 and price consolidation is near this level. The price passage of the range of 1.3216 - 1.3229 should be accompanied by a pronounced upward movement. The target is 1.3261. The potential value for the top is considered the level of 1.3283, upon reaching which we expect a rollback downwards.

The short-term downward movement is possible in the area of 1.3169 - 1.3150 and the breakdown of the latter value will have to develop the downward movement. The goal is 1.3110.

The main trend is the formation of initial conditions for the top of February 25 in the correction of the downward structure.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.3198 Take profit: 1.3216

Buy: 1.3230 Take profit: 1.3260

Sell: 1.3167 Take profit: 1.3150

Sell: 1.3146 Take profit: 1.3110

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For the currency pair Australian dollar / Dollar, the key levels on the H1 scale are 0.7260, 0.7231, 0.7209, 0.7179, 0.7167, 0.7131, 0.7113, 0.7089 and 0.7068. We continue to monitor the formation of the initial conditions for the upward cycle of February 21. The movement upwards is expected after the price passes the range of 0.7167 - 0.7179. In this case, the target is 0.7209 and in the area of 0.7209 - 0.7231 is the short-term upward movement, as well as consolidation. The potential value for the top is considered to be the level of 0.7260, upon reaching which we expect a rollback downwards.

The short-term downward movement is possible in the area of 0.7131 - 0.7113 and the breakdown of the last value will lead to a prolonged correction. The goal is 0.7090 and this level is the key support for the upward structure. Its breakdown will have to develop a downward movement. In this case, the first goal is 0.7068.

The main trend is the rising structure of February 21.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 0.7180 Take profit: 0.7207

Buy: 0.7212 Take profit: 0.7230

Sell: 0.7130 Take profit: 0.711

Sell: 0.7110 Take profit: 0.7092

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For the currency pair Euro / Yen, the key levels on the H1 scale are 127.10, 126.65, 126.46, 126.03, 125.85, 125.51 and 125.37. We are following the development of the ascending cycle of February 15. The short-term upward movement is expected in the area of 126.46 - 126.65 and the breakdown of the last value should be accompanied by a pronounced upward movement. The potential target is 127.10, from this level, we expect a downward rollback.

The short-term downward movement is expected in the area of 126.03 - 125.85 and the breakdown of the latter value will have to form the downward structure. The target is 125.51 and the range of 125.51 - 125.37.

The main trend is the ascending structure of February 15.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 126.46 Take profit: 126.63

Buy: 126.67 Take profit: 127.10

Sell: 126.02 Take profit: 125.86

Sell: 125.83 Take profit: 125.55

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For the currency pair Pound / Yen, the key levels on the H1 scale are 147.14, 146.44, 146.06, 145.24, 144.86 and 144.13. We are following the development of the ascending cycle of February 15. The short-term upward movement is expected in the area of 146.06 - 146.44 and the breakdown of the latter value will lead to a movement to the potential target of 147.14, from this level, we expect a rollback downwards.

The short-term downward movement is possible in the area of 145.24 - 144.86 and the breakdown of the latter value will lead to an in-depth correction. The target is 144.13 and this level is the key support for the top.

The main trend is the upward cycle of February 15.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 146.06 Take profit: 146.42

Buy: 146.46 Take profit: 147.12

Sell: 145.24 Take profit: 144.86

Sell: 144.84 Take profit: 144.20

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Indicator analysis. Daily review February 26, 2019 for the pair GBP / USD

Trend analysis (Fig. 1).

On Tuesday, the price will move up. The first upper target 1.3200 is the upper fractal.

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Fig. 1 (daily schedule).

Comprehensive analysis:

- indicator analysis - up;

- Fibonacci levels - up;

- volumes - up;

- candlestick analysis - up;

- trend analysis - up;

- Bollinger lines - up;

- weekly schedule - up.

General conclusion:

On Tuesday, the price will move up. The first upper target 1.3200 is the upper fractal.

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Fundamental Analysis of EUR/JPY for February 26, 2019

EUR gained impulsive momentum after breaking above the Gann Grid resistance at 125.60 area which is currently being recovered by JPY with an impulsive counter-momentum.

The eurozone's economy has been hurt by the looming BREXIT and an economic slowdown. Meanwhile, the eurozone's economy cannot regain the impulsive growth momentum it used to have earlier. The European Central Bank recently stated that it would allot 2.0 billion Euros at its three-month operation and 6.0 billion Euros at its weekly refinancing tender. Additionally, Germany's Finance Minister Mr. Olaf Scholz stated that Germany has a greater possibility to escape recession whereas the overall European economy also has such chances as well. The eurozone is facing grave risks such as trade conflicts and BREXIT. The recent data indicated a downturn in European markets. Importantly, it is not going to affect the upcoming growth in the long run. The hawkish statement drew market sentiment towards EUR but it not enough for EUR to regain strong momentum in a certain direction, while JPY has been gainign ground today.

On the other hand, today Bank of Japan's Governor Kuroda stated that he expects China's economic growth to pick up in the second half of the year despite the recent trade talks between the US and China. Japan has been looking forward to successful outcome of the trade talks as China is one Japan's important business partner. More import tariffs imposed by the US may lead to certain business complications for Japan's car industry as well. Core CPI report published today at 0.5% fell short of expectations for an increase to 0.6% from the previous value of 0.4%.

Meantime, despite downbeat economic reports from Japan, JPY managed to gain impulsive momentum over EUR that indicates weakness of EUR. JPY is winning favor with investors. Until the eurozone comes up with decent economic outcome, the pair is going to trade with higher volatility and bearish momentum.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price is heading lower towards the Gann Grid line support from where certain bullish pressure or intervention may lead to further upward pressure in the pair. Otherwise, an intra-day break below 125.50 is expected to lead the price lower towards 125.00 area.

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Technical analysis for Gold for February 26, 2019

Gold continues to trade just above the break out area of $1,326. Current price action in Gold implies that more downside is more probable than a move to new highs. Gold price might be forming a bear flag.

analytics5c74e9e3ed006.png

Purple lines - bullish channel

Blue rectangle - bear flag target

Blue lines - bear flag

Gold price got rejected at the upper channel boundary as expected and pulled back towards $1,326-30 which was our short-term target. Support is found at $1,321-23 and resistance at $1,333. If Gold breaks support we should expect prices to move towards the lower boundary of the bullish channel towards the next major support at $1,300. Breaking above resistance at $1,333 will put recent highs to the test.

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Burning forecast 02/26/2019

The EURUSD has been consolidating under a strong resistance of 1.1375 for a week, which does not make it possible to increase.

The most important news came out: Theresa May (British prime minister), according to unofficial data, is ready to agree to postponing the date of Brexit. This is a positive for the market.

There are several important news ahead: the report of Federal Reserve Chairman Powell on February 27 and the first report on US GDP on February 28.

There is a high probability of breaking the euro out of a long range and the beginning of a trend.

We buy the euro from 1.1375.

We are ready to sell the euro from 1.1230.

Aggressive option - we sell from 1.1315.

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Technical analysis for EUR/USD for February 26, 2019

EUR/USD seems unable to break above 1.1370 for a move towards 1.1410 or higher. Support so far is being respected but a daily close below 1.1320 will be a bearish sign for the next few sessions at least.

analytics5c74e97b4546f.png

Red line - major trend line resistance

Green line - major trend line support

Black line - RSI support trend line

Blue line - support trend line

Blue rectangle - target area

EUR/USD continues to respect short-term support blue trend line. Support is now at 1.1345 and it is important for bulls not see a close below 1.1320. Resistance is found at 1.1370 and a 4 hour close above this level will open the way for a move higher closer to the red trend line resistance and our blue target area between 1.1410-1.1425. Also it is important for bulls to continue to see RSI hold above the black trend line support. Breaking below it will be a sign of weakness to come.

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Indicator analysis. Daily review for February 26, 2019 for the pair EUR / USD

Trend analysis (Fig. 1).

On Tuesday, the price might begin to move downward. The first lower target 1.1330 is a lower fractal.

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Fig. 1 (daily schedule).

Comprehensive analysis:

- indicator analysis - down;

- Fibonacci levels - down;

- volumes - down;

- candlestick analysis - down;

- trend analysis - up;

- Bollinger lines - up;

- weekly schedule - up.

General conclusion:

On Tuesday, the price might begin to move downward. The first lower target 1.1330 is a lower fractal.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP / USD. Theresa May will report on the results of the "European voyage"

Brexit's topic is again overwhelmed with rumors: the fewer days until the planned British release date from the EU (March 29), the more versions of further developments appear. Information published in the press is often controversial, so it's impossible to talk about its authenticity.

In turn, the pound is not so keenly responding to insiders - traders are cautious and in no hurry to open certain positions based on dubious rumors especially because Theresa May is still confident in her success, at least in the public sphere. Its position is at odds with the disseminated insiders, and the market looks confused against the background of such contradictions. The pound / dollar pair reacts impulsively to these events, although the price returned to its original positions almost immediately. However, this situation may change soon - after all, Theresa May will speak in Parliament tomorrow, where she will talk about the results of the "European voyage".

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Despite today's press conference of the premiere, a certain intrigue of tomorrow's speech still remains. At the weekend, two influential British newspapers immediately published articles, the essence of which boils down to postponing the date of Brexit. According to one publication, the transfer is initiated by London: the government is allegedly preparing a request to Brussels with a request for a two-month extension of the negotiation process. According to another publication, the European Union itself is interested in the postponement of Brexit - Europeans are supposedly ready to postpone the X hour for almost two years, that is, until the beginning of 2021. According to information sources, this initiative is supported by "several key European countries." However, for this postponement to be agreed upon, the British government must first request it.

Considering Theresa May's public rhetoric, the above scenarios look unlikely. However, it all depends on whether the prime minister can lure the majority of deputies to his side. During today's briefing in Sharm el-Sheikh (where the joint summit of the EU and the League of Arab States is taking place), she announced that the vote on the deal will be postponed again - approximately until March 12. Tomorrow, she will tell British deputies about the results of negotiations with the EU leadership and the leaders of key countries of the alliance. After that, regular consultations with parliamentarians will begin - May will convince the members of the House of Commons again that Europe will not make additional concessions, and the proposed option of the deal is final and uncontested. Yet, it remains an open question whether the deputies will agree to compromise.

Unfortunately, traders are forced literally to gather information bit by bit about the prospects of Brexit. If we exclude rumors broadcast by the British and European press, then there is almost nothing left in the "dry residue". Representatives of the negotiating groups practically do not comment on the course of the negotiations, and the press secretaries of the first persons speak about veiled and vague messages. Therefore, May's speech in the parliament tomorrow will make it clear: what concessions did Brussels agree to (or did not agree to) and whether the government is ready to accept the new conditions - if, any preliminary compromise with the EU was reached again.

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According to an unofficial information, the parties agreed to develop additional guarantees for the mechanism of backstop. In other words, London and Brussels can make a political declaration that complements the main deal, which will spell out certain guarantees regarding the Irish border. However, there is no more detailed information yet - there are only guesses and assumptions of experts.

Theresa May also prefers not to spread ahead of time. In Egypt, she only said that her meetings with European colleagues "were successful" and she has "good feelings" that London will be able to make a deal. She also spoke out strongly against the postponement of Brexit, since, in her opinion, this solution would not help solve the problem. In general, it is set to agree on all positions with the British Parliament until March 12 and come to a vote, so that on March 29, the country would leave the EU.

It is likely that tomorrow in the parliament (the speech is scheduled for approximately 18:00 Moscow time), May will repeat the voiced theses. She will also talk about preliminary agreements with Brussels. Then everything will depend on the reaction of members of the House of Commons, although tomorrow's comments from the deputies should not be guided. After the public speech, backstage talks will follow. Thus, on March 12, the deputies may still support the deal, despite possible preliminary criticism.

Therefore, tomorrow (or evening, rather) will play a big role for the pound. The unpredictability of the situation reduces the value of technical analysis: a pair of GBP / USD can either move up to the boundaries of the 32nd figure, or return to the area of 27-28 figures. The third option is not excluded: if May confines only to general phrases, the market can completely ignore this speech, although this option is unlikely.

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