Technical analysis of NZD/USD for August 31, 2016

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NZD/USD is expected to trade with a bearish bias as key resistance at 0.7290. The pair failed to break above the nearest resistance at 0.7290, and remains under pressure below this level. The 50-period moving average is badly directed and should limit the upward potential. Even though a continuation of the technical rebound cannot be ruled out, its extent should be limited. On Tuesday, U.S. indices closed lower weighted down by shares in the Utilities, Consumer Durables & Apparel and Retailing sectors. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 49 points (0.2%) to 18454, the S&P 500 slipped 4 points (0.2%) to 2176, and the Nasdaq Composite dipped 9 points (0.2%) to 5223. To conclude, as long as 0.7290 is not broken up, the intraday outlook remains bearish with a down target at 0.720. A break below this level would open the way to further weakness toward the next support at 0.7160.

The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as long as it remains below the pivot point. Short positions are recommended with the first target at 0.7200. A break of this target will move the pair further downwards to 0.7160. The pivot point stands at 0.7290. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, it will move above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. According to that scenario, long positions are recommended with the first target at 0.7340 and the second one, at 0.7380.

Resistance levels: 0.7340, 0.7380, 0.7410

Support levels: 0.7200, 0.7160, 0.7120

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Technical analysis of GBP/JPY for August 31, 2016

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GBP/JPY is expected to trade with a bullish bias. The technical picture of the pair remains positive. The pair broke above its 20-period and 50-period moving averages and maintains on the upside. The upward momentum is further reinforced by its rising 20-period and 50-period moving averages, which act as support and maintain the upside bias. The relative strength index is above its neutrality level at 50 and lacks downward momentum. Additionally, 11134.40 represents a significant key support level, which should limit the downside potential. As long as this key level is not broken, look for a further upside toward 135.80 and 136.30 in extension.

The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a wider range as long as it remains above its pivot point. Therefore, long positions are recommended with the first target at 135.80 and the second one, at 136.30. In the alternative scenario, short positions are recommended with the first target at 133.90 if the price moves below its pivot points. A break of this target is likely to push the pair further downwards, and one may expect the second target at 133.30. The pivot point is at 134.40.

Resistance levels: 135.80, 136.30, 137.35

Support levels: 133.90, 133.30, 132.35

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USD/CAD intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for August 31, 2016

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On May 16, a bullish pullback towards 1.3000 (61.8% Fibonacci level) was expected to offer a valid signal to sell the USD/CAD pair. However, a lack of a significant bearish rejection was manifested during recent consolidations.

On May 18, temporary bullish fixation above 1.3000 (61.8% Fibonacci level) opened the way towards the 1.3180 level where significant bearish pressure was originated.

Bearish persistence below 1.3000-1.2970 (61.8% Fibonacci level) was needed to enhance bearish momentum in the market.

However, recent signs of bullish recovery were manifested around the price level of 1.2830 on August 18.

Conservative traders should consider the current bullish pullback towards 1.3000-1.3100 (61.8% Fibonacci level) as a valid SELL entry. S/L should be set as a daily candlestick closure above 1.3100.

On the other hand, note that daily fixation above 1.3000 (61.8% Fibonacci level) opens the way towards the price level of 1.3300 (50% Fibonacci level) where price action should be watched for a better SELL entry with a lower risk/reward ratio.

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NZD/USD Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for August 31, 2016

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Bullish persistence above 0.6550 (the depicted support) was necessary to keep the price moving towards higher bullish targets.

In February and March, signs of bearish rejection (triple-top reversal pattern) were expressed around the price level of 0.6750 until April when a bullish breakout above 0.6750 and 0.6860 was executed.

Later on May 6, daily candlestick closure below the 0.6850 level enhanced a quick bearish movement towards 0.6750 where bullish rejection was expected to be applied. However, obvious bearish closure below 0.6750 was achieved on May 24.

On May 30, obvious bullish rejection was expressed around the price level of 0.6675 (the lower limit of the depicted channel). That's why, the recent bullish breakout is taking place above 0.6860.

As long as the NZD/USD pair kept trading above 0.6860, further bullish advance was expected towards the price zone around 0.7400 (upper limit of the depicted channel).

As anticipated, the price zone of 0.7350 - 0.7400 (upper limit of the depicted channel) offered a valid SELL entry. Initial T/P levels should be located at 0.7100, 0.7000, and 0.6900. S/L should be set as a daily candlestick closure above 0.7300.

Confirmation of the depicted Head and Shoulders reversal pattern requires a DAILY candlestick closure below 0.6970 (Neckline). Projection targets extend down to 0.6760 and 0.6690 levels.

On the other hand, the price zone between 0.6760-0.6700 constitutes a support zone to be watched for a possible BUY entry if the current bearish swing extends below 0.7000.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for GBP/USD for August 31, 2016

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Since January 2016, bullish persistence above 1.4500 was mandatory to maintain enough bullish strength in the market.

However, the previous weekly candlesticks maintained their bearish persistence below the depicted weekly supply zone (below 1.4470), which allowed further bearish decline to occur.

The prominent demand level located at 1.3845 (historical bottom that goes back to March 2009) provided a significant bullish rejection and a bullish engulfing weekly candlestick on February 26.

Bullish fixation above 1.4670 allowed further bullish advancement initially towards 1.4950 (Weekly Supply) where significant bearish rejection was expressed.

The price zone between 1.3845 and 1.3550 (Historical bottoms in January 2009) was considered a significant demand zone to be watched for bullish recovery.

However, by the end of June, a significant bearish breakdown below 1.3550 was expressed as seen on the depicted charts.

Bearish persistence below the demand level at 1.3550 enhances the bearish scenario towards 1.2700 (the nearest bearish projection target) where price action should be watched for a possible short-term BUY entry.

On the other hand, the price zone of 1.3845-1.4040 constitutes the recent supply zone to be watched for new SELL entries if any bullish pullback extends above 1.3550.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for August 31, 2016

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In January 2015, the EUR/USD pair moved below the major demand levels near 1.2100 where historical bottoms were previously set in July 2012 and June 2010. Hence, a long-term bearish target was projected towards 0.9450.

In March 2015, the EUR/USD bears challenged the next monthly demand level around 1.0570, which had been previously reached in August 1997.

Later in April 2015, a strong bullish recovery was observed around the mentioned demand level. However, next monthly candlesticks (September, October, and November) reflected a strong bearish rejection around the area of 1.1400-1.1500.

Again In February 2016, the depicted price levels around 1.1400-1.1500 acted as a significant supply zone during the bullish pullback.

That is why, recent bearish rejection was expected around the current price levels (note the monthly candlesticks of May and June).

In the long term, the level of 0.9450 will remain a projected bearish target if the current monthly candlestick comes to close below the depicted monthly demand level of 1.0570.

On the other hand, note that a monthly candlestick closure above 1.1400 invalidates this bearish outlook on an intermediate-term basis (low probability).

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The long-term outlook for the EUR/USD pair remains bearish as the monthly chart illustrates. Bearish fixation below 1.1000 is needed to enhance this bearish scenario.

On July 8, recent bullish recovery was manifested around the price zone of 1.1000-1.0950 (previous consolidation range), but on July 15 significant bearish pressure was applied around 1.1150.

This week, bearish fixation below 1.1000 will be needed to allow a bearish decline to 1.0820 (key level 2) where price actions should be watched for a possible short-term BUY entry.

On July 27, the EUR/USD pushed above the price zone of 1.1000-1.0950 (previous consolidation range). Hence, further bullish advance towards 1.1250 was executed as expected.

Temporary bullish breakout was expressed above the price zone of 1.1250 (Supply Level 1). However, significant bearish rejection was expressed on Friday.

Re-closure below 1.1250 (Supply Level 1) maintains enough bearish pressure in the market. Initial bearish targets are located at 1.1050 and 1.0990.

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Global macro overview for 31/08/2016

Global macro overview for 31/08/2016:

Another Crude Oil Inventories data are scheduled for release today at 02:30pm GMT. Global investors expect the stockpiles to drop to the level of 1310k barrels from 2501k barrels a week ago. The recent statements from Iraq and Iran's ministers have also diffused traders' optimism over the upcoming informal meeting between the members of OPEC in Algeria, which is weighing heavily on crude oil prices. In conclusion, the clear threat of rising US production volumes in form of rising crude oil stockpiles and recent US Dollar rally after Jackson Hole economic conference are adding fuel to the fire for crude oil bears.

Let's now take a look at the Crude Oil technical picture in 4H time frame. After the false breakout, bears have managed to push the price below the golden trend line and below 21- and 50-period moving average. The drop stopped at the 100-period moving average, but the bull camp was too weak to push the prices above the technical resistance at the level of 46.40. Despite the hammer candle at the end of the drop, bears seem to be in control over this market and next flush down might happen anytime soon.

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Gold analysis for August 31, 2016

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Since our previous analysis, Gold has been trading sideways at the price of $1,314.00. According to the 1H time frame, I found upward correction in progress but be careful since I expect further downward continuation. The short-term trend on Gold is downward and my advice is to watch for selling opportunities. Today, I found down fractal at the price of $1,311.88. A pending order (sell stop) at the price of $1,311.78 would be a good idea at this point. The first take profit level is set at the price of $1,309.00 - $1,305.50.

Daily Fibonacci pivot points:

Resistance levels:

R1: 1,319.30

R2: 1,322.64

R3: 1,328.15

Support levels:

S1: 1,308.50

S2: 1,305.00

S3: 1,299.85

Trading recommendations for today: Watch for selling opportunities.

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Global macro overview for 31/08/2016

Global macro overview for 31/08/2016:

Another set of data from the US jobs market is scheduled for release today. However, the August nonfarm payrolls are considered to be the next test for the dollar's rise. The NPF report is scheduled for release on Friday at 12:15pm GMT. Market participants expect the number of newly employed people in the US to be quite steady at the level of 174k, a 5k lower than last month figure. If the released print is be better than expected, the US Dollar should continue to rally as the interest rate hike possibility in September will get more probable. Nevertheless, the most important data will still be Friday's NFP, so the rally might be limited.

Let's now take a look at EUR/USD technical picture in 4H time frame. The market has slightly bounced from the technical support at the level of 1.1127, but so far it failed to rally higher. Moreover, after the lower high at the level of 1.1365, bears are now in control of the market and might push the price even lower toward the next technical support at the level of 1.1043.

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EUR/NZD analysis for August 31, 2016

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Recently, EUR/NZD has been moving downwards. The price tested the level of 1.5354 in a high volume. According to the 1H time frame, I found a low volume upper bar and successful rejection from the supply trend line. I did put fractals on the chart and I found a broken down fractal at the price of 1.5379, which is a sign that we may see further downward price. There is another fractal at the price of 1.5354. The potential breakout of 1.5354 will confirm a further downward side. The trend is downward according to multi time frames. So, be careful when buying and watch for potential selling opportunities. A downward target is set at the price of 1.5315.

Fibonacci Pivot Points:

Resistance levels

R1: 1.5450

R2: 1.5465

R3: 1.5490

Support levels:

S1: 1.5400

S2: 1.5385

S3: 1.5360

Trading recommendations for today: Watch for selling opportunities.

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Technical analysis of USD/CAD for August 31, 2016

General overview for 31/08/2016:

The market moved little higher than yesterday's intraday resistance and now bulls are testing the 78%Fibo at the level of 1.3105. This means the recent rally might be either wave 3 of the bullish progression or wave c purple of the more complex and time-consuming corrective cycle of a higher degree. Any violation of the intraday support at the level of 1.2965 will invalidate the impulsive bullish scenario.

Support/Resistance:

1.2777 - WS2

1.2831 - Wave 2/b Bottom

1.2907 - WS1

1.2958 - Weekly Pivot

1.3032 - 61%Fibo

1.3045 - Intraday Support

1.3088 - WR1

1.3105 - Intraday Resistance

1.3139 - WR2

Trading recommendations:

All buy orders recommended last week should now move their SL to the level of 1.,3045 and leave TP still open.

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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for August 31, 2016

General overview for 31/08/2016:

As anticipated yesterday, the wave (v) is currently unfolding after the low for the wave (iv) was established at the level of 113.90. Bulls have managed to push the price towards the weekly pivot resistance level 2 at 115.10 and a corrective cycle in a shape of a triangle is being expected any time soon.

Support/Resistance:

115.10 - WR2

114.67 - Intraday Support

114.73 - WR1

114.03 - Intraday Support

113.76 - Weekly Pivot

113.58 - Invalidation Level

113.37 - WS1

112.41 - WS2

Trading recommendations:

All buy orders recommended last week should now move their SL to the level of 114.67 and leave TP still open. It is a good level to book profits or modify the order to trail the stop loss with a 20-pips range.

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for August 31, 2016

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Overview:

  • The NZD/USD pair has faced strong resistance at the level of 0.7288 because support had become resistance this week. So, the strong resistance has been already formed at the level of 0.7288 and the pair is likely to try to approach it in order to test it again. However, if the pair fails to pass through the level of 0.7288, the market will indicate a bearish opportunity below the new strong resistance level of 0.7288. Additionally, the price is in a bearish channel now. Moreover, the RSI starts signaling a downward trend, as the trend is still showing strength below the moving average (100). Thus, the market is indicating a bearish opportunity below 0.7288, for that it will be good to sell at 0.7288 with the first target of 0.7216. It will also call for a downtrend in order to continue towards 0.7166. The daily strong support is seen at 0.7166. However, the stop loss should always be taken into account, for that it will be reasonable to set your stop loss at the level of 0.7300.

Intraday technical levels:

  • R2: 0.7330
  • R1: 0.7287
  • PP: 0.7250
  • S1: 0.7216
  • S2: 0.7166
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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for August 31, 2016

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Overview:

  • The USD/CHF pair has broken resistance at the level of 0.9792, which acts as support now. So, the pair has already formed minor support at 0.9792. The strong support is seen at the level of 0.9744 because it represents the weekly pivot. Also, it should be noted that the level of 0.9744 is coincides with the ratio of 50% Fibonacci retracement level. Since the trend is above the 50% Fibonacci level, the market is still in an uptrend. In the H4 time frame, the RSI and the moving average (100) are still pointing to the upside. Therefore, the market indicates a bullish opportunity at the level of 0.9792. Buy above the minor support of 0.9792 with a target at 0.9861 (this price is coinciding with the ratio of 78.6% Fibonacci). Another resistance will be seen at the level of 0.9901. On the other hand, if the pair closes below the minor support (0.9792), the price will fall into the bearish market in order to go further towards the strong support at 0.9744. Hence, we expect a daily range between the level of 0.9744 and 0.9901.

Comment:

  • Also, the double bottom is seen at the level of 0.9695. If the trend is buoyant, then the currency pair strength will be defined as following: USD is in an uptrend and CHF is in a downtrend.
  • Support is seen at 0.9744 and the strong resistance is already set at 0.9901.
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Technical analysis of USDX for August 31, 2016

The Dollar index continues rising higher and making higher highs and higher lows. The index is approaching the important weekly resistance, and soon we will see either an important breakout or a rejection. Dollar bulls should raise their stops to protect their positions.

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The black line - resistance

The blue line - support

The Dollar index is making higher highs and higher lows above the 4 hour Ichimoku cloud. Oscillators are diverging, and the time for a pullback is getting closer. The pullback target is the Ichimoku cloud. Short-term support lies at 95.80 and the next level is at 95.

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The weekly candle has broken above the tenkan-sen indicator (the red line) and is heading towards the weekly cloud at 95.55. A rejection at that level will push the index back towards the green trend line support near 95. This is not the time to be buying but to protect longs. A breakout above the weekly cloud will be an important long-term bullish signal.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of Gold for August 31, 2016

The gold price continues making lower lows and lower highs. The price has reached the short-term support area of $1,300-$1,310 and remains in a bearish trend. Gold is expected to move lower towards $1,280 in order to complete the decline from $1,360. The $1,200 level is the next important support.

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The black line - trend line resistance

The green rectangle - support area

Gold price has reached the support area of $1,310-$1,300 and is trading below the 4 hour tenkan-sen indicator (the red line). I expect that the price will break below $1,300 with most probable support holding at $1,280. After that, a bounce from that area is expected. However, if the price breaks below $1,280, we should expect the $1,200 level to be seen next.

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The blue lines - bullish channel

On a weekly basis, the target of $1,280 is still open. At that level we can find the weekly kijun-sen indicator (yellow line) and the lower boundary of the blue upward sloping channel. If price breaks below the channel, we should expect a deep retracement towards the weekly cloud at $1,200.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for August 31, 2016

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Wave summary:

No change in view here.

We are still looking for support at 1.5283 to be able to protect the downside for a break above minor resistance at 1.5520 and more importantly for a break above resistance at 1.5642 confirming renewed upside pressure towards 1.5839 on the way higher to 1.7253.

Only an unexpected break below support at 1.5187 will question our bullish outlook.

Trading recommendation:

We are long EUR from 1.5370 with stop placed at 1.5180. If you are not long EUR yet, then buy a break above 1.5520 and place stop at 1.5275.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for August 31, 2016

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Wave summary:

The rally of the 113.11 low continues to unfold as expected. We would of cause like to see more upside acceleration, but overall the rally looks as expected. We continue to expect minor support at 114.63 and more importantly support at 113.81 will protect the downside for the continuations higher towards 116.19 and ideally closer to 118.58.

Only a break below 113.81 will question our bullish outlook.

Trading recommendation:

We are long EUR from 114.05 and will move our stop higher to 113.75. If you are not long EUR yet, then buy near 114.63 and use the same stop at 113.75.

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for Aug 31, 2016

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When the European market opens, some economic data will be released such as Unemployment Rate, Italian Prelim CPI m/m, Core CPI Flash Estimate y/y, CPI Flash Estimate y/y, Italian Monthly Unemployment Rate, German Unemployment Change, French Prelim CPI m/m, French Consumer Spending m/m, and German Retail Sales m/m. The US will release several reports too such as Crude Oil Inventories, Pending Home Sales m/m, Chicago PMI, ADP Non-Farm Employment Change. So amid the reports, EUR/USD will move with low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVELS:

Breakout BUY Level: 1.1200.

Strong Resistance:1.1194.

Original Resistance: 1.1183.

Inner Sell Area: 1.1172.

Target Inner Area: 1.1146.

Inner Buy Area: 1.1120.

Original Support: 1.1109.

Strong Support: 1.1098.

Breakout SELL Level: 1.1092.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for Aug 31, 2016

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In Asia, Japan will release the Housing Starts y/y and Prelim Industrial Production m/m. The US will release several reports such as Crude Oil Inventories, Pending Home Sales m/m, Chicago PMI, and ADP Non-Farm Employment Change. So there is a probability the USD/JPY pair will move with low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVELS:

Resistance. 3: 103.55.

Resistance. 2: 103.34.

Resistance. 1: 103.14.

Support. 1: 102.89.

Support. 2: 102.69.

Support. 3: 102.49.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

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Daily analysis of major pairs for August 31, 2016

EUR/USD: There is now a clean Bearish Confirmation Pattern in this market. Price has moved upwards by over 170 pips since August 22, 2016, enabling the EMA 11 to go below the EMA 56 (while the Williams' % Range period 20 is in the oversold territory). Further bearish movement is clearly possible and more support lines would be tested.

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USD/CHF: There is now a clear Bullish Confirmation Pattern in this market. Price has moved upwards by over 200 pips since August 22, 2016; corroborated by weakness in EUR/USD, weakness in the CHF, and stamina in the USD itself. As long as these factors are in place, USD/CHF would continue moving upwards.

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GBP/USD: A bearish signal has formed on the Cable. The EMA 11 has crossed the EMA 56 to the downside and the RSI period 14 has crossed the level 50 to the downside. This is a development in agreement with the dominant bias in larger time frames like daily and weekly charts. Further southwards movement is possible.

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USD/JPY: The USD/JPY cross has continued the bullish journey it started on August 26, 2016. Since then, price has gone upwards 270 pips, now testing the supply level at 130.00. The next targets for bulls are located at the supply levels of 103.50 and 104.00. Unless there is a significant stamina in the JPY, those targets would be attained this week or next.

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EUR/JPY: The EUR/JPY cross has continued the bullish journey it started last Friday. Since then, price has gone upwards 150 pips, now above the demand zone at 144.50. The next targets for bulls are located at the supply zones at 115.00, 115.50, and 160.00. Unless there is a significant stamina in the JPY, those targets would be attained this week or next.

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Daily analysis of USDX for August 31, 2016

Another bullish day for the US Dollar Index was seen during Tuesday's session, following positive data from the United States. The resistance lies at the 96.14 level where the sellers could resume the downside to taking the index into a corrective phase. In case of a breakout above that zone, we will see a rally towards the 96.49 level.

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H1 chart's resistance levels: 96.14 / 96.49

H1 chart's support levels: 95.79 / 95.49

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place buy (long) orders only if the USD Index breaks with a bullish candlestick; the resistance level is at 96.14, take profit is at 96.49 and stop loss is at 95.79.

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Daily analysis of GBP/USD for August 31, 2016

The pair is finding temporary support at the 1.3085 price zone, where the buyers are trying to resume the overall bullish structure. However, the resistance level of 1.3258 have proven to be strong, and it's a key hurdle for buyers across the board. If GBP/USD manages to break it, then we can see a consolidation above the 200 SMA, looking for the 1.3258 level as the next target.

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H1 chart's resistance levels: 1.3170 / 1.3258

H1 chart's support levels: 1.3085 / 1.3003

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place buy (long) orders only if the GBP/USD pair breaks a bullish candlestick; the resistance level is at 1.3170, take profit lies at 1.3258 and stop loss is at 1.3085.

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