Maybe everything is not so bad (we buy at the breakdown of USD/JPY pair and sell gold)

The ECB's final decision on monetary policy showed that the regulator, led by the new leader, has not yet developed a final decision on the future of monetary policy. In other words, the bank is not ready to start large-scale incentive measures, which led to the strengthening of the single currency, which was supported by the situation of certainty following the election to the British Parliament.

In fact, as we evaluate the result of the ECB meeting, we can say that any pause in the decision to introduce new stimulus measures will provide broad support for the single currency rate. And the news that the Conservative Party in the person of its leader B. Johnson became the winner in the parliamentary elections in Britain will support the single currency, as well as sterling, for a limited period of time. The main reason for this is not a radical improvement in the economies of the eurozone and the UK, but the emergence of certainty of what should be expected in the future, which, incidentally, is not so cloudless yet.

Meanwhile, another positive aspect of the end of this week is the news that D. Trump has signed with the Chinese side the so-called "first phase" of a new trade agreement between the United States and China today. Yesterday's President's surprise statement to investors that the negotiations were positive and that the States were "very close to a big trade agreement with China" improved the mood of the markets.

From a technical point of view, gold, against this background, also fell sharply after a sharp increase, continuing to form a "rising" flag figure to continue the downward trend. It is likely that the demand for protective assets will decline as the details of the signed document are known. Given this, we expect the continuation of decline in gold prices.

In any case, the ending week brought enough good news so that the growth in demand for risky assets would continue not only today, but also next week.

Forecast of the day:

The USD/JPY pair increased sharply amid declining tensions around US-China trade negotiations. In addition, a general positive is the news about the victory in the elections of the Conservative Party in the British Parliament. We believe that the positive trend can continue today, and on this wave, the pair, breaking through the level of 109.70, will grow to the level of 110.60.

The price of gold has the possibility to continue to decline in the wake of certainty around trade negotiations between Washington and Beijing. From a technical point of view, it forms a figure of the continuation of the upward flag trend. Thus, we consider it possible to sell gold after its decline below the level of 1461.20 with local targets at 1452.45 and 1439.00.

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Indicator analysis: Daily review on December 13, 2019, on EUR / USD currency pair

According to the news, the pair continued to move up on Thursday and tested the upper fractal 1.1181 presented in a blue dashed line, however, it closed at the historical resistance level of 1.1165 presented in a blue dashed line. On Friday, strong calendar news is expected for the dollar at 13:30 Universal time. Also for this day, the market can roll back.

Trend analysis (Fig. 1).

On Friday, the price may continue to move up to test the retracement level of 61.8% which is equivalent to 1.1209 presented in a blue dashed line, and after that, the pair can go down with the first lower target of 1.1176 the retracement level of 14.6% presented in a red dashed line. If successful, the next lower target 1.1156 is a retracement level of 23.6% presented in a red dashed line. Much will depend on the news that comes out at 13:30 Universal time.

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Fig. 1 (daily chart).

Comprehensive analysis:

- Indicator analysis - up;

- Fibonacci levels - up;

- Volumes - up;

- Candlestick analysis - down;

- Trend analysis - up;

- Bollinger Lines - up;

- Weekly schedule - up.

General conclusion:

On Friday, the price may continue to move up.

There is an unlikely scenario where from the level of 1.1201, the price may go down to the lower target 1.1123 the retracement level of 38.2% presented in a red dashed line.

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Hot forecast for GBP/USD on 12/13/2019 and trading recommendation

The pound quickly moved up as soon as it became known that the Conservatives are not just winning, but also increasing their presence in the House of Commons. At the same time, Boris Johnson can now not only celebrate the victory, but boldly call himself one of the most successful leaders of the Conservative party of recent decades. After all, his party not only improved its result, but received a confident majority. At the time of writing this review, the vote count has not yet ended, but the Conservatives already have 360 seats, while 326 seats are needed for the majority. In other words, no one will be able to prevent Boris Johnson from realizing his Brexit plan, as the Conservatives no longer need to seek the support of other parties since they can pass any laws alone. Indeed, this is a triumph, and in this situation, the growth of the pound is not surprising.

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Although emotions overwhelm investors, it seems that the pound has exhausted its growth potential. The UK economy is not in very good condition, and everyone is well aware that Brexit will inevitably have a negative impact on it. Therefore, the euphoria will gradually come to nothing, and investors will have to take into account the real state of things. The only thing that can please is that at least it is clear how events will develop in the future. Apparently, Boris Johnson will still be able to fulfill his promise, and complete the protracted epic with Brexit with at least some clarity. However, it's obvious that you need to wait for the rebound, and the reason for it may be today's data on retail sales in the United States. The growth rate of which should accelerate from 3.1% to 3.4%.

Retail Sales (United States):

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From a technical point of view, the pound has reached its peak over the past year and a half, and its growth has stopped. The support level is at 1.3300. The movement in this direction will be slow and progressive, and the first level is 1.3450, then 1.3400.

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EUR/USD trading plan for December 13, 2019. The victory of the Conservative party in Britain supported the pound and the

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The ECB left monetary policy unchanged and did not support the euro. It came instead from Britain, from the preliminary data that B. Johnson's party is confidently winning the election with about 368 seats out of 650. Winning would allow Johnson to hold his version of Brexit without further postponements on January 31, which consequently made the pound show a huge increase with more than 300 points from 1.3170, its level at the beginning of the day, to more than 1.3500.

The euro's gains are much more modest, nevertheless, the EUR/USD pair has reached for the last 3 months, a high of 1.1180 - a new signal that the market is ready to move the euro up. The EUR rose against the yen.

News also came out of the European events that the US is ready to reduce tariffs against China if the said country makes significant concessions in trade negotiations.

EUR/USD: Keep buying at 1.1035 -with possible rollbacks at 1.1130.

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GBP/USD. Victory night for Johnson: pound storms year-and-a-half highs

Many traders who have at least three years of experience trading in the currency exchange market will probably remember the election night in 2016, when Britain summed up the results of the historical referendum on the country's withdrawal from the EU. That night, the GBP/USD pair showed tremendous price fluctuations: at first, it increased to the level of 1.50, and in the morning, it declined two thousand points to the base of the 30th figure. This is all because the votes were first counted in those regions of Britain that support the European Union, and closer to dawn, data came from other sections. Thus, when it finally became clear that the Eurosceptics won, the pound began to dive down, freezing at the levels of multi-year lows. In turn, British entrepreneurs suddenly realized that they could lose access to a single market overnight, after which the British currency paired with the dollar updated historical lows (which, subsequently, were repeatedly updated, up to the level of 1.1958).

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Last night, the pound began to gain momentum also "ahead of schedule", that is, before the announcement of the official results. Therefore, I personally experienced a light deja vu, internally preparing for the subsequent dive of GBP/USD. However, apparently, the current situation cannot be compared with the situation in 2016, and even with the situation in 2017, when Theresa May recklessly decided on early elections in order to strengthen her position in parliament. Moreover, the data received by the morning of December 13 suggest that Boris Johnson did what his predecessor did not succeed: he was able to strengthen the position of conservatives in the House of Commons, and most likely will form a parliamentary majority with a large margin of several tens of votes.

At the time of writing these lines in Britain, nearly half of the ballots were counted. According to the data received, conservatives receive 357 seats, Labor - 202, Scottish National Party - 46, Liberal Democrats - 10. Now, if we talk about the expected results in general, so far we can proceed from the results of exit polls, although they all confirm the optimistic forecasts of the YouGov research agency. In particular, Boris Johnson can get 368 seats in the new parliament. So if these exit poll data are confirmed, the conservatives will receive more than 50 mandates more than they had following the results of the early elections the year before last. Moreover, they are guaranteed to form a majority in the House of Commons and will be able to make legislative decisions independently of other political forces. Let me remind you that during the previous parliament, the Tories were forced to enter into a situational alliance with the Democratic Union Party. This fact negatively affected the approval process of the deal with Brussels - both during the time of Theresa May and under Johnson's reign. Not only were the conservatives "dissidents" who did not support the course of the Prime Minister, but the allies also put forward their own conditions, which were often impossible.

Now, Johnson got rid of this "anchor". If the exit polls are confirmed, the prime minister will be able to coordinate government initiatives (including the Brexit deal) without fear of possible internal party opposition, given the gap of several dozen mandates. By the way, according to Johnson himself, prior to the election, all candidates who went to the polls from the Conservative Party signed an assurance that they would support the agreement reached with Brussels. In fact, the deplorable results of the Labor Party (which, apparently, lost about 70 seats in parliament compared to the previous elections) indicate that the British want to put an end to the protracted negotiating epic. It was under Johnson that the Conservative Party rating went up sharply: residents of Foggy Albion are sure that he will be able to finish what he started, finally putting an end to the three-year negotiation process.

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However, the "point" is still far away. By January 31, the UK will leave the European Union formally (judging by the preliminary results of the elections, this can already be said with confidence). Nevertheless, the country will finally leave the Alliance only at the end of the transition period. This period ends at the end of 2020. And although the parties can extend it, Johnson is determined in his usual manner: he plans to streamline trade relations between London and Brussels over the remaining (since January) 11 months in order to leave the EU not formally, but de facto. According to some experts, difficulties will arise again in relations between Britain and the Alliance at this stage, and this fact will put pressure on the pound.

However, these are problems not of today or even of the current year. At the moment, the bulls of GBP/USD are celebrating a well-deserved victory - after all, just a few days before the vote, YouGov experts did not exclude the option of a "suspended" parliament. Now, this scenario is practically excluded, so the pound is held at one and a half year price highs. Meanwhile, the nearest resistance level is located at around 1.3580 - this is the upper line of the Bollinger Bands indicator on the monthly chart.

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