March 20, 2019: GBP/USD Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations


On January 2nd, the market initiated the depicted uptrend line around 1.2380.

This uptrend line managed to push price towards 1.3200 before the GBP/USD pair came to meet the uptrend again around 1.2775 on February 14.

Another bullish wave was demonstrated towards 1.3350 before the bearish pullback brought the pair towards the uptrend again on March 11.

A weekly gap pushed the pair slightly below the trend line (almost reaching 1.2960) . However, significant bullish recovery was demonstrated rendering the mentioned bearish gap as a false bearish breakout.

Moreover, a short-term bearish channel was broken to the upside following the mentioned bullish recovery on March 11.

That's why, bullish persistence above 1.3060 allowed the GBPUSD pair to pursue the bullish momentum towards 1.3130, 1.3200 then 1.3360 where the current bearish pullback was initiated.

Bullish persistence above 1.3250 ( 50% Fibonacci expansion level ) was needed for confirmation of a bullish Flag pattern. However, significant bearish pressure was demonstrated below 1.3250.

Hence, the short term outlook turned to become bearish towards 1.3180 then 1.3095 where the depicted uptrend line comes to be tested again.

Bearish persistence below 1.3185 (23.6% Fibonacci expansion) is mandatory for further bearish decline. Any bullish breakout above which, gives early warning for sellers.

Trade Recommendations:

Intraday traders should wait for a valid SELL signal anywhere around (1.3215-1.3250).

T/P level to be located around 1.3180 and 1.3090. SL to be set as rebound H4 closure above 1.3200-1.3250 again.

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Bitcoin analysis for March 20, 2019

Bitcoin has been trading sideways at the price of $3.987. Our view from yesterday is still valid.


BTC exited from consolidation phase (potential bullish flag pattern), and we anticipate the upward trend to continue. Stochastic oscillator is ready for an upswing. This is a good sign of an ongoing trend. Short-term resistance is seen at the price of $4.020 and $4.170. Key intraday support is seen at the price of $3.928.

Trading recommendation: We are bullish on BTC from 3.870, and we added new long position on the breakout of $4.000. Stop loss order is to be placed at $3.770, and take profit order is to be set at $4.170.

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EUR/USD analysis for March 20, 2019

EUR/USD has been trading sideways at around 1.1358. Demand is still buoyant, so be careful when selling.


According to the H1 time – frame, I have found a potential bullish Wolfe wave pattern in progress. The projected target for the upside is at the price of 1.1500. The price should go towards the estimated target level. Currently there is a running flat bearish correction in creation and bearish divergence on the macd oscillator, which are signs that EUR/USD might trade a bit lower before new buyers join the market. Support level is seen at the price of 1.1293 and the key resistance is seen at the price of 1.1512.

Trading recommendation: We are bullish on the EUR from 1.1358. Protective stop is placed at the price of 1.1495 and the main target is set at the price of 1.1500

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Analysis of Gold for March 20, 2019

Gold has been trading downwards. The price tested the level of $1.304.77. Bearish momentum is still going on, be careful with buying.


According to the M30 time – frame, I have found double fail tests of the high at $1.310.65, which is a sign that buyers don't have power for any strong push. Gold did break the rising trendline, which is another sign of weakness. Bearish divergence on the MACD oscillator is another sign of waning buying power. Resistance level is seen at the price of $1.310.65 and the support is seen at $1.292.40. Watch for a bearish flag before you sell.

Trading recommendation: We closed our long position on Gold on the breakeven and we are looking to short Gold. If you are aggressive, you can sell from $1.302.00 with the take profit at $1.292.50 and protective stop at $1.311.00.

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Brexit: The exit of the UK from the EU can be postponed to June 30th. Traders are waiting for the Fed statement

The British pound began to gradually decline against the US dollar after appearing on the market that British authorities did not intend to ask the EU for a long postponement of Brexit. This was announced by government representatives.

The short period of delay will not allow the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom to get the EU to make important changes to the Brexit agreement, which is so expected in parliament. Moreover, a short delay calls, in general, the Brexit procedure itself and the UK's exit from the EU, since in fact, nothing will change in such a short time, except for the next period of uncertainty, which lasts for about 3 years.

Already in the afternoon, it became known that the government of the country sent an official petition to the EU leaders to postpone the exit of Great Britain from the union to the date after March 29. During her speech, British Prime Minister Theresa May said she was asking to postpone the official date of Brexit to June 30 and ratify additional documents so that a new vote could be taken on Brexit. However, the duration of the delay will be determined by the EU authorities. Most likely, this will happen tomorrow during the summit.

Tomorrow, the decision of the Bank of England on interest rates will be published.

Given the excitement around Brexit, traders ignored today's inflation data in the UK, which accelerated slightly in February of this year. This happened due to rising prices for food and alcoholic beverages.

According to a report by the National Bureau of Statistics, in February 2019, compared with the same period last year, consumer prices rose 1.9% after rising 1.8% in January. With regard to growth in February, compared with January of this year, inflation increased by 0.5%, while economists expected it to grow by 0.4%.


Let me remind you that quite recently, the Bank of England has signaled that it can continue to raise rates in the next few years in order to keep annual inflation near the target level of 2%. I think it is at this point that you should pay attention to the statements that will be published tomorrow, along with the decision on interest rates. It is unlikely that a small jump in inflation will frighten the regulator.

In the first half of the day, a report was also published, which indicated that in January of this year, as compared with January of last year, housing prices in London decreased by 1.6%.

As for the technical picture of the GBPUSD pair, a breakthrough of a sufficiently dense support area led to the sale of the pound. At the moment, the pressure of bears can be kept in the region of minimum 1.3130, while larger support can be seen in the area of 1.3020. However, we can already say that the current short-term uptrend for the pound is broken, however, as I mentioned above, much will depend on tomorrow's decision at the EU summit.

Fed and interest rate

In the afternoon, all attention will be focused on the decision of the US Federal Reserve on interest rates. No one doubts that the regulator will leave them unchanged, but the forecast for their further increase may be significantly revised. If the Fed refuses to tighten monetary policy this year, this could lead to a significant weakening of the US dollar, as previously, at least two rate hikes were raised.

As for the technical picture of the EURUSD pair, it remained unchanged. Another unsuccessful attempt to update yesterday's high led to a slowdown in euro growth and a decline. The goal remains the support of 1.1335, the breakthrough of which will lead to a larger sale to the minima of 1.1300 and 1.1250. In the case of growth above the resistance of 1.1370, the demand for the euro will significantly increase, which will open a direct road to the highs of 1.1410 and 1.1490, however, such a large increase will occur only with real changes in the monetary policy of the United States, which we will learn in the afternoon.

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