talian authorities agreed to reduce the budget deficit in 2019

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The Italian authorities finally agreed to revise the draft federal budget for 2019 and reduce the budget deficit from the previously announced 2.4% to 2.04% of the country's GDP. This was announced by Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte at a meeting with the head of the European Commission Jean-Claude Juncker in Brussels. The Italian government explained its decision by obtaining some financial resources, which will reduce the future budget deficit.

The updated draft budget will remain plans for the introduction of benefits for the poor and unemployed, as well as the introduction of the so-called pension quota 100, according to which Italian citizens can retire as soon as the sum of years of work experience and age reaches 100.

J. Conte noted that the Italian authorities are doing everything possible to avoid the introduction of European sanctions while taking into account the interests of citizens.

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Will new heights conquer gold in 2019?

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The threat of exacerbation of trade conflicts, the volatility of oil prices and the correction of the US stock market made the question about the prospects for the yellow precious metal one of the most pressing at the end of this year.

Despite the fact that some economists believe that next year gold will fall in price below $ 1,000 per ounce, most experts consider such a scenario unlikely and predict an increase in the value of gold.

In particular, according to experts of Bank of America Merrill Lynch (BofAML), in 2019 the average price of gold will be $ 1,296 per ounce.

"This year, factors such as increasing real rates, the rise of the US economy and the strengthening of the US dollar position put pressure on the precious metal rate. It is assumed that next year these factors will take the reverse vector of development," they noted.

Analysts at investment bank Goldman Sachs expect that in the next three months, the quotes will be at $ 1,250 per ounce, in six months they will rise to $ 1,300 per ounce, and within 12 months, the price will rise to $ 1,350 per ounce. According to them, in the event of a slowdown in US economic growth in 2019, gold will become the main beneficiary of the increased demand for defensive assets.

ABN AMRO Bank is counting on the price rally of gold, up to $ 1,400 per ounce.

"We consider the current ratio of risk and return on precious metals to be quite attractive," said representatives of the financial institute. According to them, next year the increase in the cost of precious metals will occur due to the reduction of speculative short positions.

"The gold market has good chances of growth due to its safe-haven status. In 2019, the precious metal can rise in price to $ 1,500 per ounce," said Commerzbank.

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Can the euro make the dollar problem its advantage?

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The glitter of the dollar will fade next year. It is for this scenario that currency strategists of reputable financial corporations of the world are preparing. Maps of American currency confuse slower than this year, the growth of the economy, according to JPMorgan Asset Management. Other analysts believe that bearish sentiment will strengthen the Fed, which is expected to pause the policy tightening process. FX experts also believe that the growth of market volatility and the demand for capital abroad will provoke an outflow of funds from America.

JP Morgan and Morgan Stanley advise getting rid of the dollar index. The opposite opinion is held in Barclays. In the first half of the year, analysts are waiting for the continuation of the rally due to a further increase in the federal funds rate.ulHGkNd89OGLNKEI4ScwXI_XHPaifvIDUYr_2ukjMostly pessimistic predictions cause a feeling of deja vu. Exactly a year ago, Bloomberg analysts also staged a "funeral" for the dollar, proclaiming strong growth in the eurozone. This factor, along with the trade wars and the double deficit of the United States, was supposed to stun the American currency. In reality, the euroblock economy slowed to a 4-year low, protectionism supported the "American", and the lack of problems with raising capital to finance the budget deficit helped the dollar index to ignore the negative.

Now investors' faith in the slowdown in US GDP, which, in their opinion, will be the main cause of the dollar falling from a pedestal, is growing every day. More than half of Duke University's respondents are confident that America will face a recession at the end of 2019. Over 80% of respondents say that it will descend at the end of 2020. Will market participants reduce investment on expectations of a recession, which will provoke it?

The forerunner of a slowdown in the US is the inversion of the yield curve. Almost every respondent interviewed by Reuters reported that the departure of the indicator to the red zone will happen in the next 12 months. Some even call a shorter term, six months.

Indeed, the dollar has problems, but there's something else interesting. Will the euro take advantage of them? The economy of the currency bloc is unhealthy, Italy is on the verge of a recession and a subsequent downgrade of the credit rating, trade disagreements are strongly hitting the export-oriented economy. Moreover, the weak dynamics of core inflation allows the ECB to stay idle.

Further dynamics of the EUR / USD currency pair will depend on the decisions taken by the ECB on Thursday. Will the members of the regulator change their opinion regarding the timing of the rate hikes? Of course, the ECB, following the Fed and the Bank of England, will complete the QE program. However, the most interesting thing is the income reinvestment schedule and the possible launch of LTRO.

If Draghi confirms the weakness of the region's economy and reports on new measures of monetary incentives, the euro risks significantly deepening. At the same time, his optimism can be a real lifeline for the bulls on the euro.

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Global oil market is facing a deficit in 2019, IEA says

According to the calculations of the International Energy Agency (IEA), the global oil market may face a shortage of raw materials. The reason for this is that experts believe the new agreement OPEC + and the reduction in the supply of black gold from Canada.

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The monthly oil market report, presented by the IEA, reports that global demand for black gold in 2018 and 2019 will remain unchanged at 1.3 million and 1.4 million barrels per day (b / s), respectively. Recall that the forecast for growth in demand for raw materials for the coming year has remained at the same level, despite the significant decline in oil prices since the beginning of October 2018.

According to the monthly oil market report by the IEA, the global demand for black gold in 2018 and 2019 will remain unchanged at 1.3 million and 1.4 million barrels per day (b/s), respectively.

In the current quarter, the price of oil fell by almost a third, bargaining near the $61 per barrel mark from a four-year peak of $87 reached in early October. The IEA believes that support for demand from lower oil prices is offset by a slowdown in global economic growth, especially in emerging markets.

Recall that last week the OPEC countries and other oil producers, including Russia, agreed to cut production by 1.2 million b/d from January 2019. Along with this, the authorities of the Canadian province of Alberta have demanded that oil companies reduce production by 325 thousand b/d from January of next year.

In November of this year, the volume of raw materials mined by the countries of the cartel decreased by 11 thousand barrels per day compared with October. According to the IEA report, they reached 32.965 million b/s, which fits into the strategy to eliminate oil surplus on a global scale.

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GBP / USD pair: plan for the US session on December 13. Pound froze waiting for news on Brexit

To open long positions on the GBP / USD pair, you need:

Buyers completed the installation for the first half of the day and broke above 1.2620, which led to a new wave of pound growth. At the moment, a breakthrough and consolidation above resistance 1.2667 is needed which will allow us to count on updating the highs around 1.2714 and 1.2752, where I recommend taking profits. In the case of a pair decline in the second half of the day, long positions can again look at the rebound from the support of 1.2618.

To open short positions on the GBP / USD pair, you need:

Sellers managed to form a false breakdown at the resistance level of 1.2675 and as long as the trade is conducted below this range. The pressure on GBP / USD will remain, which may lead to a further decrease in the support area of 1.2618, where I recommend taking profits. In the case of a further larger upward correction and a breakthrough of the resistance of 1.2667, you can take a closer look at short positions at the rebound from the highs of 1.2714 and 1.2752.

Indicator signals:

Moving averages

Trade is conducted over the 30- and 50-day moving averages, which indicates a continuation of the upward correction of the pound.

Bollinger bands

In the case of a decrease in the pound in the afternoon, long positions can be considered immediately to rebound from the lower limit of the Bollinger Bands indicator in the area of 1.2597, which acts as a support.

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Description of indicators

MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow

MA (moving average) 30 days - green

MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9

Bollinger Bands 20

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