USDCAD bulls could reach 1.3180 if they recapture 1.31.

USDCAD has mostly moved sideways over the last few trading sessions between 1.3080 and 1.3030. Price has formed a bullish flag pattern and a break above 1.3090-1.31 could open the way for a move towards 1.3180.


Green lines - bullish flag pattern

USDCAD has stopped the advance at the 38% Fibonacci retracement of the decline. However now I believe it is gathering power for another leg higher towards the 61.8% Fibonacci level. The bullish flag pattern target also is the same Fibonacci level and with a break above 1.3090-1.31 I believe we will see 1.3180-1.32. Support is at 1.3030 and breaking below it will cancel my short-term bullish view. The RSI is not in overbought levels and turning upwards. This is going to be a very interesting week in USDCAD.

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Weekly BTCUSD analysis

Bitcoin had a second strong weekly performance while price broke above the resistance area of $8,000. Price has exited the downward sloping wedge pattern and bulls now feel more in control. However there are still many obstacles ahead in order to reach 2019 highs.


Red lines -wedge pattern

Bitcoin has so far two strong weeks and the most important part is that price is reversing its trend and exiting the wedge pattern from the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. This increases the chances of a longer-term turn around. The $7,000 price level could very well be a long-term bottom. Bulls need to continue to see prices make higher highs and higher lows. At this point it would be important for bulls to respect $6,850 and not see a price below that level. Daily trend is bullish. Next target is $9,200 and next at $11,000. Only a break above the second target will increase the chances of breaking above 2019 highs.

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Ichimoku cloud indicator Daily analysis of EURUSD

EURUSD is still in bullish daily trend according to the Ichimoku cloud indicator as price remains above the Daily Kumo (cloud). However on Thursday we had a weak sell signal as the tenkan-sen crossed the kijun-sen.


Green lines- bullish channel

EURUSD remains inside the bullish channel and above cloud support. However the week ended badly for EURUSD as price broke below 1.11 and we have a clear cross of the tenkan- and kijun-sen. Last hope for bulls is for the cloud and channel support at 1.1060 area to hold. Breaking below this area would be a bigger and more important sell signal. Price is approaching an area of great importance and an area with high probabilities for a trend reversal to the upside. Next week will be crucial for the first quarter performance of EURUSD.

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Short-term Elliott wave analysis on GBPUSD

GBPUSD started the last session of the week on a strong note but the day found the pair near the lowest of the week and with a lower weekly close relative to the previous week. Price reversed at the upper channel boundary as expected and we continue to expect the resumption of the downtrend to give us at least a new lower low below 1.29.


Red lines -expected path

Green lines -short-term bearish channel

GBPUSD remains in a bearish trend. Short-term support is found at 1.2954 and resistance at 1.3080. If support fails to hold I expect a test of 1.29 with high chances of breaking below it. The next important support after 1.29 is at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. If resistance breaks above 1.3080 I believe we will most likely continue moving sideways and form a triangle pattern. In either case I do not see much upside potential for GBPUSD.

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Overview of the EUR/USD pair on January 17. Is US manufacturing sector starts to experience problems that the fed is smoothing

4 hour timeframe


Technical details:

Senior linear regression channel: direction - upward.

Junior linear regression channel: direction - upward.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - sideways.

CCI: 25.1866

On Friday, January 17, the EUR / USD currency pair begins with a downward correction against the upward trend, since the pair recently managed to overcome the moving average line. However, during the upward movement, traders failed to overcome the Murray "6/8" level of 1.1169, from which there was a rebound, and now the pair is quoted near the moving average, again deciding what to do next: to rebound and resume growth or to return to a more justified downward movement, from a fundamental point of view. Yesterday's daytime news reaffirms that point of view, which does not particularly need proof in recent months. The American statistics showed another very good value and exceeded forecasts, while European statistics (German CPI) showed no positive dynamics, again. Thus, the Euro currency fell anew, which is quite logical,

Also, over the past day, a protocol was published from the last meeting of the ECB, which was the first for Christine Lagarde. No one doubted that at her first meeting as head of the Regulator, Lagarde would not initiate a change in the key rate. In principle, she herself stated that it would take several months to evaluate all the possibilities and the need for structural changes in the Central Bank, as well as monetary policy. The minutes of that meeting confirmed that the European Central Bank is currently taking a wait and see attitude. At the same time, most members of the monetary committee considered certain optimistic signs in the current state of things.

According to the members of the monetary committee, political risks began to decline, and the inflationary pressure is to decrease, at the same time, the manufacturing sector began to show signs of recovery. According to members of the ECB, this is the first sign that the situation has begun to improve. Since we do not sit at the ECB, it is difficult for us to draw a similar conclusion, because we only see specific macroeconomic statistics. And these statistics do not indicate, for example, that business activity in the manufacturing sector of the EU countries which begun to grow. Nevertheless, ECB chief economist Philip Lane said:

"The data from the last meeting on monetary policy indicated the continuing weak but stabilizing growth dynamics of the Eurozone."

It should also be noted that in the coming months, the ECB should decide on a strategy that will be applied in the work in the coming years.

The publication of the December inflation is scheduled on the last day of the European Union trading week. We will then be able to make sure that the ECB is right in speaking of some signs of economic recovery or to verify the opposite. Considering the fact that German inflation remained unchanged in December and British inflation slowed down to 1.3% y / y, and acceleration of European inflation, on the other hand, can hardly be expected. According to experts, inflation in the EU will remain unchanged at 1.3% y / y. We believe that this is the most optimistic forecast. In the best case, inflation will indeed be 1.3%, in the worst, it will start to slow down again. Thus, the euro can today be under pressure from market participants.

Separately, it is also worth considering the report on industrial production in the USA. If everything is clear in the European Union, the business activity in the manufacturing sector has long been in the "red zone", industrial production itself is declining, and in the case of the States, everything is not so obvious. Business activity in the manufacturing sector by the ISM index is also in the "red zone" of 47.1, however, the Markit index indicates that "everything is in order", amounting to about 52. But a report on industrial production today may show a decrease in volumes in December by 0.2% m / m. What is it? An accident? Or the consequences of a trade war with China? Will there be a reflection on other economic indicators or will the Fed skillfully smooth out the negative effect of Trump's trade wars? One way or another,

The technical picture on January 17 indicates that the pair is preparing to resume a downward trend. If the Murray "5/8" level of 1.1139 is overcome, then the trend will again become downward.


The average volatility of the EUR/USD currency pair is currently 42 points. Thus, we have volatility levels on January 17 at 1.1101 and 1.1185. A turn of the Heiken Ashi indicator up will indicate the resumption of the upward movement. However, we still expect a resumption of the downward movement.

Nearest support levels:

S1 - 1.1139

S2 - 1.1108

S3 - 1.1078

The nearest resistance levels:

R1 - 1.1169

R2 - 1.1200

R3 - 1.1230

Trading recommendations:

The EUR/USD is currently being adjusted again. Thus, long positions (formally) with goals 1.1169 and 1.1185 are relevant now, however it is recommended to open them very carefully with small lots. It is recommended that returning to sales of the pair with a target of 1.1108 is not earlier than the reverse overcome by moving traders.

In addition to the technical picture, fundamental data and the time of their release should also be taken into account.

Explanations for illustrations:

The oldest linear regression channel is the blue unidirectional lines.

The smallest linear regression channel is the purple unidirectional lines.

CCI - the blue line in the indicator window.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - a blue line on the price chart.

Murray levels - multi-colored horizontal stripes.

Haiken Ashi is an indicator that colors bars in blue or purple.

Possible price movement options:

Red and green arrows.

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