Trade Of The Day - GBP/NZD Video Analysis

Our trade of the day today is GBP/NZD! We use Fibonacci retracements, extensions, support/resistance, momentum and trend lines to identify trading opportunities in this exciting pair today!

Feel free to ask me questions on the analysis here: https://forum.mt5.com/showthread.php?226855-Dean-s-Daily-Video-Analysis-Instaforex-Chief-Strategist&p=14079976&

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

What are the major institutions trading? | Weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report (17/2 to 21/2)

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Our strongest currency is the US Dollar with a bullish strength factor of 1.73 and with institutions adding more long contracts.

Our weakest currency is the New Zealand Dollar with a bearish strength factor 1.43 and with a net bearish positions of 2,287 meaning that there are a lot of institutions adding on to their short positions (2,983) while at the same time, reducing their long positions (-696).

With a weak NZD and a strong USD, it would be good to look for short NZD/USD positions for this week.

Also worth noting are the weak Japanese Yen, Australian Dollar and the strong Euro, Pound and Canadian dollar.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Fractal analysis of the main currency pairs for February 19

Forecast for February 19 :

Analytical review of currency pairs on the scale of H1:

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For the euro / dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.0891, 1.0861, 1.0832, 1.0807 and 1.0751. Here, mainly, we expect a movement in correction from a downward trend. Short-term upward movement is expected after the breakdown of the level of 1.0807. Here, the target is 1.0832. The breakdown of which will lead to in-depth movement. In this case, the target is 1.0861. This level is a key resistance for the subsequent development of the ascending structure. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level of 1.0891. We await the design of expressed initial conditions before this value.

A potential value for the downward movement is the level of 1.0751, however, we consider the movement to this level as unstable.

The main trend is a downward structure from January 31, we expect a correction

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.0807 Take profit: 1.0830

Buy: 1.0834 Take profit: 1.0860

Sell: Take profit:

Sell: Take profit:

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For the pound / dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.3182, 1.3157, 1.3114, 1.3082, 1.3045, 1.2990, 1.2961 and 1.2928. Here, we are following the development of the ascending structure of February 10. The continuation of the movement to the top is expected after the breakdown of the level of 1.3045. In this case, the target is 1.3082. Short-term upward movement, as well as consolidation is in the range of 1.3082 - 1.3114. The breakdown of the level of 1.3114 will lead to a pronounced movement. In this case, the potential target is 1.3157. Upon reaching which, we expect a consolidated movement in the range 1.3157 - 1.3182, as well as a correction.

Short-term downward movement is possibly in the range of 1.2990 - 1.2961. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the target is 1.2928. This level is a key support for the upward structure.

The main trend is the ascending structure of February 10.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.3045 Take profit: 1.3080

Buy: 1.3083 Take profit: 1.3112

Sell: 1.2990 Take profit: 1.2962

Sell: 1.2959 Take profit: 1.2930

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For the dollar / franc pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 0.9899, 0.9883, 0.9858, 0.9819, 0.9804 and 0.9783. Here, we are following the local ascendant structure of February 12. The continuation of movement to the top is expected after the breakdown of the level of 0.9858. In this case, the target is 0.9883. We consider the level of 0.9899 to be a potential value for the ascending structure. Upon reaching which, we expect consolidation, as well as a pullback to the bottom.

Short-term downward movement is possibly in the range of 0.9787 - 0.9771. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the target is 0.9783. This level is a key support for the top.

The main trend is the local potential for the top of February 12

Trading recommendations:

Buy : 0.9858 Take profit: 0.9880

Buy : 0.9883 Take profit: 0.9899

Sell: 0.9819 Take profit: 0.9805

Sell: 0.9803 Take profit: 0.9784

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For the dollar / yen pair, the key levels on the scale are : 110.80, 110.47, 109.99, 109.62, 109.41 and 109.07. Here, we are following the development of the ascending structure of January 31. The continuation of the movement to the top is expected after the breakdown of the level of 110.00. In this case, the target is 110.47. Price consolidation is near this level. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level 110.80. Upon reaching which, we expect a pullback to the bottom.

Short-term downward movement is possibly in the range of 109.62 - 109.41. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the goal is 109.07. This level is a key support for the top.

Main trend: upward structure of January 31

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 110.00 Take profit: 110.45

Buy : 110.49 Take profit: 110.80

Sell: 109.60 Take profit: 109.42

Sell: 109.38 Take profit: 109.10

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For the Canadian dollar / US dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.3303, 1.3281, 1.3267, 1.3228, 1.3201 and 1.3165. Here, the descending structure of February 10 is considered medium-term. The continuation of movement to the bottom is expected after the breakdown of the level of 1.3228. In this case, the target is 1.3201. Price consolidation is near this level. The breakdown of the level of 1.3200 will lead to the development of pronounced movement to the bottom. Here, the potential target is 1.3165. We expect a pullback to the top from this level.

Short-term upward movement is possibly in the range of 1.3267 - 1.3281. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the target is 1.3303. This level is a key support for the downward structure.

The main trend is the formation of medium-term initial conditions for the downward movement of February 10

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.3267 Take profit: 1.3281

Buy : 1.3283 Take profit: 1.3303

Sell: 1.3226 Take profit: 1.3203

Sell: 1.3199 Take profit: 1.3167

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For the Australian dollar / US dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are : 0.6733, 0.6718, 0.6701, 0.6668, 0.6645, 0.6614 and 0.6594. Here, we determined the subsequent targets on the H1 scale from the descending structure on February 12. The continuation of the movement to the bottom is expected after the breakdown of the level of 0.6668. In this case, the target is 0.6645. Price consolidation is near this level. The breakdown of the level of 0.6645 should be accompanied by a pronounced movement to the level of 0.6614. For the potential value for the bottom, we consider the level of 0.6594. Upon reaching which, we expect consolidation, as well as a rollback to the top.

A correction is expected after the breakdown of the level of 0.6701. In this case, the target is 0.6718. There is a short-term upward movement in the range 0.6718-0.6733. The breakdown of the level of 0.6733 will lead to the formation of initial conditions for the top. Here, the target is 0.6761.

The main trend is the descending structure of February 12

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 0.6701 Take profit: 0.6716

Buy: 0.6718 Take profit: 0.6732

Sell : 0.6668 Take profit : 0.6647

Sell: 0.6643 Take profit: 0.6616

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For the euro / yen pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 119.46, 119.09, 118.85, 118.36, 118.13 and 117.64. Here, we are following the descending structure of February 5. Short-term downward movement is expected in the range of 118.36 - 118.13. The breakdown of the last value will lead to the movement to the potential target - 117.64, when this level is reached, we expect a pullback to the top.

Short-term upward movement is possibly in the range of 118.85 - 119.09. The breakdown of the last value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the goal is 119.46. This level is a key support for the downward structure.

The main trend is the descending structure of February 5

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 118.85 Take profit: 119.07

Buy: 119.12 Take profit: 119.44

Sell: 118.36 Take profit: 118.14

Sell: 118.11 Take profit: 117.66

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For the pound / yen pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are : 145.19, 144.57, 144.12, 143.50, 142.75, 142.47 and 142.08. Here, we are following the ascending structure of February 10. The continuation of movement to the top is expected after the breakdown of the level of 143.50. In this case, the goal is 144.12. The breakdown of this value will lead to short-term upward movement in the range 144.12 - 144.57. Hence, there is also a high probability of a reversal to correction. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level of 145.19. Upon reaching this level, we expect a pullback to the bottom.

Short-term downward movement, as well as consolidation, are possible in the range of 142.75 - 142.47; hence, the likelihood of a reversal to the top. The breakdown of the level of 142.47 will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the goal is 142.08. This level is a key support for the top.

The main trend is the rising structure of February 10

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 143.50 Take profit: 144.12

Buy: 144.15 Take profit: 144.50

Sell: 142.75 Take profit: 142.50

Sell: 142.44 Take profit: 142.10

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP/USD. February 18. Results of the day. Pound completely lost in the wilds of the foreign exchange market

4-hour timeframe

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Amplitude of the last 5 days (high-low): 74p - 43p - 126p - 62p - 56p.

Average volatility over the past 5 days: 73p (average).

Tuesday, February 18, was held in completely illogical and versatile bidding for the British pound. One gets the impression that traders are completely unaware of which direction they need to trade in now. The GBP/USD currency pair continues to be traded inside the Ichimoku cloud, today it once again worked out its upper border, the Senkou Span B line, bounced off it again and now again tries to resume its downward movement. At the same time, a weak buy signal from Ichimoku Golden Cross remains. Bollinger Bands began to narrow, indicating the completion of the upward movement. In the current situation, it is not recommended to trade for increase or decrease in usual volumes.

We have repeatedly said that the British pound has no reason to strengthen. That is, the absolutely reasonable movement would now be a downward movement. However, for some reason the bears do not want to start selling, so the current situation is very similar to the euro's situation, which we deemed paradoxical. Recall that this is a situation in which the bears have all the necessary fundamental factors for selling, but do not want to carry them out, and the bulls do not have any macroeconomic basis for purchases, therefore they are content to open only short-term positions that a priori cannot help form an upward trend. If you look at the 24-hour timeframe, the whole picture of the currency pair now looks like a classic "swing". Trend movement is completely absent, but the downward trend still persists.

A new portion of fundamental information has arrived from the UK today, February 18. It is easy to guess that most of it was again disappointing. In the morning article, we listed all the macroeconomic reports that are worth paying attention to. Now we analyze them. The least interesting unemployment rate was 3.8% at the end of December, as analysts expected. More interesting data on the number of applications for unemployment benefits during January showed 5,500 instead of the expected 22,600. Thus, this report can be regarded as positive for the British currency. However, the positive news ends here. The average salary including bonuses in December showed an increase of only 2.9% against the previous value of +3.2% and the forecast of +3.0%. The average salary, excluding bonuses, showed an increase of 3.2% against the forecast of +3.3% and the previous value of +3.4%. Thus, the most important indicator, from our point of view, turned out to be worse than the expectations of traders. Thus, the whole news package from the UK can not be called uniquely disastrous, but it could not support the British pound. The British currency particularly increased in the afternoon, when the data was published, but it was short-lived and the next 4-hour candle turned out to be bearish.

Meanwhile, the representative of the UK in negotiations with the EU, David Frost, said that "if the EU wants to build strong and long-term relations with the British, then the only possible way out is to build them on the basis of mutual equality." Frost also notes that London will not accept the terms of cooperation with the EU on the terms proposed by Brussels. In other words, London refuses the EU conditions on fair competition between European and British companies, on conditions related to state subsidies. "How would you feel if Britain demanded that the EU begin to quickly adapt its laws to those established in Westminster to protect its interests?", asks David Frost. Thus, as we said earlier, negotiations between the parties have not even begun, and there are already so many disagreements that it may take 11 years instead of 11 months to resolve them. This whole situation significantly reduces the likelihood of reaching an agreement, but increases the likelihood that Britain will leave the EU at the end of 2020 without any deals. Boris Johnson cannot understand the situation, nor can he understand the consequences for the British economy from the lack of a deal, however, in this situation, he will have to sacrifice something. Either drive the UK economy into an open recession, or agree to the tough influence of the European Union on many areas.

From a technical point of view, the pound can move from any current position in almost any direction. The fact that the British currency failed with three attempts to cross the Senkou Span B line leaves a good chance of resuming a downward movement.

Trading recommendations:

GBP/USD continues to adjust. Thus, it will be possible to sell the British pound with the target of 1.2929 only after the price consolidates below the critical line and only in small lots, since the price is still inside the cloud. We recommend considering the pair's purchases with the objectives of 1.3075 and 1.3118, if the Ichimoku cloud is nevertheless overcome, but it should be understood that the fundamental factors do not remain on the side of the British currency.

Explanation of the illustration:

Ichimoku indicator:

Tenkan-sen is the red line.

Kijun-sen is the blue line.

Senkou Span A - light brown dotted line.

Senkou Span B - light purple dashed line.

Chikou Span - green line.

Bollinger Bands Indicator:

3 yellow lines.

MACD indicator:

Red line and bar graph with white bars in the indicators window.

Support / Resistance Classic Levels:

Red and gray dashed lines with price symbols.

Pivot Level:

Yellow solid line.

Volatility Support / Resistance Levels:

Gray dotted lines without price designations.

Possible price movements:

Red and green arrows.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR/USD. February 18. Results of the day. Euro continues to fall for the 16th consecutive day, ignores all correction factors

4-hour timeframe

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Amplitude of the last 5 days (high-low): 34p - 60p - 55p - 33p - 22p.

Average volatility over the past 5 days: 41p (average).

The EUR/USD currency pair continued its downward movement on Tuesday, February 18, and by the end of the day it worked both the first support level for this week at 1.0786 as well as the lower boundary of the volatility channel, and it once again updated three-year lows at the same time. In fact, each new decline down to the level of 1.0339 will be accompanied by an update of three-year lows. The essence is different, the euro is now extremely weak, the EU economy, although it is keeping afloat, does not show any signs of recovery, therefore the most important thing is the absence of factors due to which one could hope for a recovery and growth of the European currency. It should also be noted that over the past 16 days no correction or even a hint of it has happened. As often happens, similar in strength trend movements begin on a flat ground. After all, nothing preceded such a confident fall in the euro. Neither the ECB meeting, nor the Fed meeting, nor the statement by the heads of central banks, nothing. The downward movement simply started against the backdrop of weak macroeconomic statistics from the EU and strong from the US (which, incidentally, was observed long before the start of the movement) and has been going on for the 16th consecutive day. Moreover, it persists even in those days when there are no macroeconomic factors to continue it. For example, yesterday or today. Not a single significant report was published at all yesterday, February 17 - the euro/dollar stayed near its lows all day, fearing it would "detach" from them. Several minor reports were published today - the euro has resumed its decline. What does this fall can not even be called strong. The average volatility of the pair is still 40-50 points per day, no more, and it has also decreased in recent days.

As for macroeconomic statistics that were published today, the first three came from the ZEW Institute and reflected economic sentiment indices in Germany and the European Union, as well as an assessment of current economic conditions. In today's morning article, we were surprised at the fact that the economic sentiment indices in the last five months showed not a slight increase and literally resurrected. We wondered why investors are optimistic if the economy of Germany and the EU continues to slow down? It turned out that we were asking similar questions not in vain, because today's data showed a sharp decline in all three indices. The mood index in the business environment of Germany fell from 26.7 points to 8.7, a similar index in the EU - from 25.6 to 10.4, despite the fact that forecasts predicted growth to 30.0 points. And the index for assessing current economic conditions in Germany fell from -9.5 to -15.7. It is unlikely that these indices caused the next fall of the European currency, however, one cannot but admit that these data could further strengthen the negative attitude of traders towards the euro.

A much more objective reason for the fall is the deceleration of the German economy (the locomotive country of the European Union), as well as the entire EU. Recall that, according to the latest data, German GDP slowed down to 0.4% in annual terms, and European GDP - to 0.9% yoy. Moreover, many world experts note that the Chinese coronavirus will affect not only the economy of China, but also all its trading partners, including the US, the EU, and Germany. The German economy is an export-oriented economy. If demand for its products decreases, problems begin that threaten to go into recession. However, it should be recognized that the situation with the coronavirus in China is still far from critical. According to the latest data, the number of deaths from the virus has reached about 2000, and the number of infected people does not exceed 70,000. It is clear that the real numbers are likely to be much higher, however, scientists also note that in fact the Covid-2019 virus is not so dangerous to humans, as previously thought. For example, other coronaviruses, SARS and Merce, are far more deadly. From the Chinese virus, no more than 20% of patients die as a result of complications, the rest are completely cured. Moreover, the virus causes pneumonia, that is, it spreads much better in the cold season than in the warm season. Doctors are already predicting that by the end of February, the growth rate of the incidence rate will decline.

From a technical point of view, nothing new can be noted. The euro/dollar pair has another chance to start a correctional movement, since there was a rebound from the level of 1.0786, but traders did not use such an enormous amount.

Trading recommendations:

The EUR/USD pair keeps the downward movement. Thus, it is now recommended that you stay in euro-currency sales with targets at support levels of 1.0786 and 1.0742. The MACD indicator may begin to discharge again. It will be possible to consider buying the euro/dollar pair in small lots with the goal of a first resistance level of 1.0916, if traders manage to gain a foothold above the Kijun-sen line.

Explanation of the illustration:

Ichimoku indicator:

Tenkan-sen is the red line.

Kijun-sen is the blue line.

Senkou Span A - light brown dotted line.

Senkou Span B - light purple dashed line.

Chikou Span - green line.

Bollinger Bands Indicator:

3 yellow lines.

MACD indicator:

Red line and bar graph with white bars in the indicators window.

Support / Resistance Classic Levels:

Red and gray dashed lines with price symbols.

Pivot Level:

Yellow solid line.

Volatility Support / Resistance Levels:

Gray dotted lines without price designations.

Possible price movements:

Red and green arrows.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com