Comprehensive analysis of movement options of #USDX vs EUR / GBP & GBP / JPY & EUR / JPY (DAILY) on April 03, 2020

Let's pay attention to the situation with the dollar index and the options for the development of the movement of the main cross-instruments #USDX vs EUR/GBP & GBP/JPY & EUR/JPY (DAILY) on April 03, 2020.

Minor operational scale (daily time frame)

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US dollar index

Starting April 3, 2020, the movement of the USD index index #USDX will continue to develop within the equilibrium zone (98.85 - 99.91 - 101.15) of the Minor operational scale. The details of working out the above levels are presented in the animated chart.

In case of breakdown of the upper boundary ISL61.8 (resistance level of 101.15) of the equilibrium zone of the Minor operational scale forks, the upward movement of the dollar index will become possible to goals:

- ultimate Schiff Line Minor (101.80);

- Starting line SSL Minuette (102.15);

- maximum 102.98.

On the contrary, in case of breakdown of the lower boundary of the ISL38.2 (support level of 98.85) equilibrium zone of the Minor operational scale forks, it will be confirmed that further development of the #USDX movement will proceed in the equilibrium zone (98.85 - 97.770 - 96.50) of the Minuette operational scale forks with the prospect of reaching the SSL initial line (95.20) of the Minor operational scale forks.

The details of #USDX movement options from April 03, 2020 is shown on the animated chart.

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Euro vs Great Britain pound

The development of the movement of the "main" cross-instrument EUR / GBP on April 3, 2020 will be determined by the development and direction of the breakdown of the boundaries of the equilibrium zone (0.8660 - 0.8822 - 0.8970) of the Minuette operational scale forks. The details are shown in the animated chart.

In case of breakdown of the lower boundary of the ISL61.8 (support level of 0.8660) equilibrium zone of the Minuette operational scale forks, the downward movement of this cross-instrument can be continued to the boundaries of the equilibrium zone (0.8560 - 0.8430 - 0.8300) of the Minor operational scale forks.

Meanwhile, the breakdown of the resistance level of 0.8970 at the upper boundary of ISL61.8 of the equilibrium zone of the Minuette operational scale forks will lead to the resumption of the upward movement of EUR / GBP to the boundaries of the 1/2 Median Line channel (0.9110 - 0.9200 - 0.9280) of the Minuette operational scale forks.

The movement options of EUR / GBP from April 03, 2020, depending on the development of the 1/2 Median Line Minuette channel, are shown on the animated chart.

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Great Britain Pound vs Japanese Yen

The development of the GBP / JPY cross-instrument movement from April 3, 2020 will be determined by the development and direction of the breakdown of the boundaries of 1/2 Median Line channel (132.50 - 135.20 - 138.00) of the Minuette operational scale forks. The details of the movement marking in this channel is shown on the animated chart.

In case of a breakdown of the lower boundary (support level of 132.50) of the 1/2 Median Line channel of the Minuette operational scale forks, then the movement of the cross-instrument will be directed to the boundaries of the equilibrium zone (131.30 - 127.80 - 124.50) of the Minor operational scale forks.

Alternatively, the breakdown of the upper boundary (resistance level of 138.00) of the 1/2 Median Line Minuette channel will confirm the further development of the GBP / JPY movement in the equilibrium zone (136.20 - 139.90 - 143.40) of the Minuette operational scale forks.

The markup of the GBP / JPY movement options from April 03, 2020 is shown on the animated chart.

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Euro vs Japanese Yen

The direction of breakdown and testing the range:

  • resistance level of 116.70 - the initial SSL line of the Minuette operational scale forks;
  • support level of 116.10 - local minimum;

will determine the development of the movement of the cross-instrument EUR / JPY from April 03, 2020.

Updating the local minimum (support level of 116.10) followed by the breakdown of the lower boundary of the 1/2 Median Line channel (115.84) of the Minor operational scale forks will send the downward movement EUR / JPY to warning line LWL38.2 Minor (112.50).

At the same time, with the joint breakdown of the resistance level of 116.70 and 1/2 Median Line Minor (117.10), the upward movement of this cross-instrument will become possible to be directed to the upper boundary of the 1/2 Median Line channel (118.40) of the Minor operational scale forks, as well as to the boundaries of the 1/2 Median Line channel (118.80 - 119.60 - 120.40) of the Minuette operational scale forks.

The markup of the EUR / JPY movement options from April 03, 2020 is shown on the animated chart.

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The review was compiled without taking into account the news background. Thus, the opening trading sessions of major financial centers does not serve as a guide to action (placing orders "sell" or "buy").

The formula for calculating the dollar index :

USDX = 50.14348112 * USDEUR0.576 * USDJPY0.136 * USDGBP0.119 * USDCAD0.091 * USDSEK0.042 * USDCHF0.036.

where the power coefficients correspond to the weights of the currencies in the basket:

Euro - 57.6% ;

Yen - 13.6% ;

Pound Sterling - 11.9% ;

Canadian dollar - 9.1%;

Swedish krona - 4.2%;

Swiss franc - 3.6%.

The first coefficient in the formula leads the index to 100 at the starting date - March 1973, when the main currencies began to be freely quoted relative to e

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Oil was held at $20

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Good afternoon, dear traders!

Yesterday, I made a recommendation to pay attention to the May oil futures at a quote of $ 20 per barrel on evening news about US oil reserves.

The stocks came out huge:

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All things being equal, on such news, the oil should lose several dollars of its value at once. But, apparently, there are forces that were able to restrain sellers and protect the round level of $ 20:

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It also became known about the bankruptcy of the first oil shale company in the United States.

Tomorrow, Trump is scheduled to have a meeting in the White House with the leaders of the country major energy companies. Trump is furious and will obviously take measures, laying on this, oil quotes have grown by $ 1.5.

At the same time, May natural gas futures also updated at least Wednesday night:

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I believe that the growth potential for gas during the current contract is very good at up to $2. And recently, there has been a clear correlation between oil and gas prices. I recommend buying gas from current prices and even lower, every 10 cents to $1 with profit-taking of $2.

Success in trading and control the risks!

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Hot forecast for EUR/USD on 04/02/2020 and trading recommendation

Suddenly and unexpectedly, the market mood dramatically changed, and instead of weakening the dollar, we saw a banal standstill. Of course, this is partly due to the rather strange content of the ADP employment report, which does not beat the growth in the number of applications for unemployment benefits too much. But do not write off the continuing panic about the coronavirus. As yesterday it became known that the number of confirmed cases of infection in Spain has exceeded 100,000. Spain epidemics came in third place, ahead of China. Although in Europe, there are suggestions that the peak of the epidemic has passed and is about to begin to decline.

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At the same time, to be honest, the single European currency had every reason to grow, at least during the first half of the trading day. Contrary to all forecasts, the unemployment rate in Europe fell from 7.4% to 7.3%. However, this is data for February, and not yet clear as to what happened in March. Nevertheless, there is hope that the decline in the unemployment rate in February will ensure that its growth will not be so terrible in March. After all, Europe is known for its social policy, and perhaps the eurozone countries will be able to smooth things over. However, the final data on the index of business activity in the manufacturing sector was slightly worse than the preliminary estimate, which showed a decrease from 49.2 to 44.8. This same index fell to 44.5. But this did not impress anyone at all, since the decline is still quite significant.

Unemployment rate (Europe):

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But the US data really confused the market. After seeing more than three million initial applications for unemployment benefits last week, everyone was waiting with a clear conscience for an unprecedented drop in employment from ADP. It was predicted that it should decrease by 170,000, but it turned out that it decreased by only 27,000, and this is a little strange. This can only happen because the coronavirus epidemic hit the United States around the middle of March. But before that, employment was expected to grow at an all-time high. This picture does not look so plausible. So the results raise a lot of questions. Nevertheless, this was enough to make market participants forget about selling the dollar in confusion.

Employment change from ADP (United States):

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The first thing you should pay attention to today is producer prices in Europe, the decline rate of which should accelerate from -0.5% to -0.7%. And of course, in Europe they can talk a lot about the peak of the spread of the coronavirus epidemic, but economic problems do not go far from this. A further decline in producer prices will clearly put pressure on inflation. So the European Central Bank has every reason to be worried.

Producer Prices (Europe):

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But data on producer prices in Europe today will act as a kind of warm-up, as investors are much more concerned about applications for unemployment benefits in the United States. But they can throw everyone into shock. Not only can the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits reach 3,180 thousand, but the number of repeat applications should jump to 4,920 thousand, meaning that for the second week in a row, the number of initial applications will be near the record high set just last week. And it is clear that such an increase in unemployment should affect the duration of unemployment. The labor market can't digest so many people so quickly. However, in terms of repeated applications, the situation is still far from a disaster, since in 2009 their number sometimes approached the level of seven million. However, there were no such number of initial applications, and it is difficult to say how events will develop further. You can only be sure that nothing good is worth waiting for.

Number of repeated applications for unemployment benefits (United States):

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From the point of view of technical analysis, we see that during the corrective movement from last week's peak of 1.1150, the quote managed to fall to the area of 1.0900, where a variable support was found. In fact, activity is still at high levels, where daily volatility consistently exceeds the 100-point mark.

In terms of general analysis of the trading chart, we see successive inertial fluctuations that are in the structure of a global downward trend.

We can assume a temporary fluctuation within the values of 1.0930/1.0970, where a local acceleration may occur, on the basis of which it will be possible to enter the market. Working within a range doesn't make much sense.

Concretizing all of the above into trading signals:

- We consider long positions if the price is consolidated higher than 1.0970 with the prospect of a move to 1.1030-1.1065.

- We consider short positions if the price is consolidated below 1.0930 with a move towards the 1.0900 level. The main positions will occur after the price is consolidated below 1.0885.

From the point of view of complex indicator analysis, we see that due to the existing correction course, the indicators of technical instruments on the daily periods have changed their interest to neutral. At the same time, hourly segments indicate selling.

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Technical Analysis of ETH/USD for 02/04/2020:

Crypto Industry News:

The digital payments giant PayPal has published a new job offer in which the company is seeking to hire a director of anti-money laundering strategy (AML) and Blockchain in its branch Global Financial Crimes (GFC).

According to the company, the new director - operating from New York - will be responsible for assessing the use of Blockchain to prevent financial crimes such as money laundering and terrorist financing, overseeing the entire AML process.

The post also specifies that an ideal profile must focus on the company's capabilities related to Blockchain in terms of strengthening the company's risk department.

PayPal explained that this role is to regularly review AML-related reports to identify and oversee key trends within the Blockchain portfolio by implementing it according to the company's needs.

PayPal requires that the person previously occupy a position in a finance company using Blockchain technology with a thorough understanding of the risks associated with cryptocurrencies, along with experience in AML compliance or law enforcement.

This is not the first time the digital payments giant has expressed interest in the Blockchain and cryptocurrency environment. On November 19, 2019, reports appeared that PayPal had conducted a $ 4.2 million funding round for TRM Labs, which is a cryptocurrency management platform.

Technical Market Outlook:

The ETH/USD pair has made a new local high after a pull-back towards the level of $128.27. This level will now act as a support for the price, so it is worth to notice, if you are looking for an intraday support. Ethereum is trying to continue rally after the breakout with a target located at the level of $147.22. In a case of a failure, the lower levels will be tested: $118.53 and $114.98. Please notice, there is almost non increase in momentum as the price moves up.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - $161.35

WR2 - $151.83

WR1 - $136.71

Weekly Pivot - $127.64

WS1 - $112.54

WS2 - $102.86

WS3 - $88.46

Trading Recommendations:

The fear of the coronavirus consequences is very strong among the global investors and it rules on the financial markets. So far the global investors are not so keen to invest in cryptocurrency, because they are being perceived as risky assets. The larger time frame trend on Ethereum remains down and as long as the level of $214.67 is not violated, all rallies will be treated as a counter-trend corrective moves. This is why the short positions are now more preferred.

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Markets, as well as the dollar, will wobble amid uncertainty (a local decline in the USD/CAD pair and an increase in the

The events of the last two weeks clearly show that investors are not ready to fully enter the market for cheaper shares of companies against the background of coronavirus. This dynamic is also fully confirmed by the behavior of the US dollar.

Last week, a generally positive attitude of investors towards buying stocks of companies was noted in the markets. On this wave, government bonds of economically strong countries were sold, the demand for safe-haven currencies such as the yen and the Swiss franc, decreased, and the dollar declined significantly against major currencies. The reason for this was the announcement by the Fed, the US Treasury, and other major global Central Banks of the broadest incentive measures. But this week, the mood turned 180 degrees, already against the background of the first economic statistics coming out over the last coronavirus time. They turned out to be extremely negative for Europe and America, although on the contrary, the figures from China were optimistic.

Why does the market react like that? This is due to the fact that there are reasonable expectations that until demand in Europe and North America is restored, and these are the main consumers of Chinese products, active production in the PRC will stall because there is no one to buy its products. Therefore, the markets stopped responding last week, and the dollar weakened.

In our opinion, this situation will continue until the situation with coronavirus infection in these regions stabilizes. In the meantime, investors will exercise extreme caution. We believe that stocks of companies will be bought at local falls, but volumes will remain low. The dollar will also move in pairs with the main currencies in the "sideways", nervously breaking out up and down.

Now, all the attention of market players will be turned to the publication of data on employment in America on Friday, and today to updated values on applications for unemployment benefits. In this regard, applications are expected to increase by 3.5 million from the previous value of 3.283 million.

So far, stock index futures have shown positive dynamics before the opening of trading in Europe. We believe that it is a kind of strip-wagon. A fall and then growth will continue. On this wave of market behavior, it can be assumed that the American currency may come under pressure against major currencies.

Forecast of the day:

The EUR/USD pair is trading below the level of 1.0970. The positive mood on the trading floors with the opening of Europe may be the reason for the limited growth of the pair. Its increase above the level of 1.0970 will lead to an increase in the price to 1.1035.

The USD/CAD pair is gradually falling amid strong growth in oil prices, which are adding more than 10%. The preservation of such dynamics in the wake of the positive opening of Europe may lead to continued decline in the pair, first to the level of 1.4000, and then to the level of 1.3920.

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