Fractal analysis of major currency pairs on July 17

The forecast for July 17:

Analytical review of H1-scale currency pairs:

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For the euro / dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.1283, 1.1251, 1.1233, 1.1221, 1.1195, 1.1169, 1.1137 and 1.1116. Here, the price canceled the development of the ascending structure and at the moment, we are watching the formation of the potential for the bottom of July 15. The continuation of the movement to the bottom is expected after the breakdown of the level of 1.1195. In this case, the goal is 1.1169, wherein consolidation is near this level. The breakdown of the level of 1.1169 should be accompanied by a pronounced downward movement. Here, the target is 1.1137. For the potential value for the bottom, we consider the level of 1.1116. After reaching which, we expect consolidation, as well as rollback to the top.

Short-term upward movement is possible in the range of 1.1221 - 1.1233. The breakdown of the last value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the target is 1.1251. This level is a key support for the downward structure. Its breakdown will have to form the initial conditions for the upward cycle. Here, the potential target is 1.1283 .

The main trend - the formation of potential for the bottom of July 15

Trading recommendations:

Buy 1.1221 Take profit: 1.1232

Buy 1.1335 Take profit: 1.1250

Sell: 1.1295 Take profit: 1.1170

Sell: 1.1167 Take profit: 1.1140

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For the pound / dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.2492, 1.2458, 1.2434, 1.2395, 1.2364 and 1.2337. Here, the price canceled the development of the ascending structure and we are following the downward trend of July 12. The continuation of the movement to the bottom is expected after the breakdown of the level of 1.2395. In this case, the target is 1.2364. For the potential value for the bottom, we consider the level of 1.2337. After reaching which, we expect a rollback to the top.

Short-term upward movement is expected in the range of 1.2434 - 1.2458. The breakdown of the last value will lead to a prolonged correction. Here, the target is 1.2492. This level is a key support for the downward structure of July 12.

The main trend - the downward structure of July 12.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.2435 Take profit: 1.2457

Buy: 1.2460 Take profit: 1.2492

Sell: 1.2395 Take profit: 1.2365

Sell: 1.2362 Take profit: 1.2337

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For the dollar / franc pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 0.9952, 0.9902, 0.9881, 0.9841, 0.9820, 0.9797 and 0.9779. Here, we are following the development of the downward structure of July 9. At the moment, the price is in the correction zone. The continuation of the movement to the bottom is expected after the breakdown of the level of 0.9841. In this case, the goal is 0.9820. The breakdown of which, in turn, will allow us to count on the movement to 0.9797. For the potential value for the downward trend, we consider the level of 0.9779. Upon reaching this level, we expect a rollback to the correction.

Consolidated movement is possible in the range of 0.9881 - 0.9902. We expect the formation of the initial conditions for the upward cycle to the level of 0.9902.

The main trend is the formation of the downward structure of July 9, the stage of correction.

Trading recommendations:

Buy : 0.9881 Take profit: 0.9902

Buy : 0.9910 Take profit: 0.9950

Sell: 0.9840 Take profit: 0.9822

Sell: 0.9818 Take profit: 0.9797

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For the dollar / yen pair, the key levels on the scale are : 108.99, 108.70, 108.42, 107.78, 107.58, 107.41, 106.98 and 106.68. Here, we are following the downward structure of July 10th. The continuation of the movement to the bottom is expected after the breakdown of the level of 107.78. Here, the goal is 107.58, and near this level is a price consolidation. A passage at the price of the noise range 107.58 - 107.41 will lead to the development of a pronounced movement. In this case, the goal is 106.98. For the potential value for the bottom, we consider the level of 106.68. From which, we expect a rollback to the top.

Short-term upward movement is possible in the range of 108.42 - 108.70. The breakdown of the latter value will have to form an upward structure. Here, the potential target is 108.99.

The main trend: the formation of a downward structure of July 10.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 108.43 Take profit: 108.70

Buy : 108.72 Take profit: 108.99

Sell: 107.78 Take profit: 107.58

Sell: 107.40 Take profit: 107.00

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For the Canadian dollar / US dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.3141, 1.3105, 1.3090, 1.3041, 1.3016, 1.3001, 1.2964 and 1.2937. Here, we are following the development of the downward structure of July 9th. The continuation of the movement to the bottom is expected after the breakdown of the level of 1.3041. In this case, the first goal - 1.3016. The price pass of the noise range 1.3016 - 1.3001 should be accompanied by a pronounced downward movement. In this case, the target is 1.2964. For the potential value for the bottom, we consider the level of 1.2937. After reaching which, we expect a rollback to the top.

The range of 1.3090 - 1.3105 is a key support for the downward structure. Its price passage will have to form an upward structure. In this case, the potential target is 1.3141.

The main trend - the downward structure of July 9.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.3105 Take profit: 1.3140

Buy : Take profit:

Sell: 1.3041 Take profit: 1.3016

Sell: 1.3000 Take profit: 1.2965

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For the Australian dollar / US dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are : 0.7111, 0.7091, 0.7063, 0.7050, 0.7013, 0.6991 and 0.6969. Here, we are following the development of the ascending structure of July 10. Short-term upward movement is possible in the range of 0.7050 - 0.7063. The breakdown of the latter value should be accompanied by a pronounced upward movement. In this case, the target is 0.7091. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level of 0.7111. After reaching which, we expect a rollback to the bottom.

Short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 0.7013 - 0.6991. The breakdown of the latter value will have to form the initial conditions for the downward cycle. Here, the goal is 0.6969.

The main trend - the ascending structure of July 10.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 0.7050 Take profit: 0.7063

Buy: 0.7065 Take profit: 0.7090

Sell : 0.7011 Take profit : 0.6993

Sell: 0.6988 Take profit: 0.6972

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For the euro / yen pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 122.28, 121.89, 121.59, 121.22, 120.92 and 120.48. Here, we are following the downward structure of July 10th. The continuation of the movement to the bottom is expected after the breakdown of the level of 121.22. In this case, the target is 120.92, wherein consolidation is near this level. For the potential value for the bottom, we consider the level of 120.48. After reaching which, we expect a rollback to the top.

Short-term upward movement is possible in the range of 121.59 - 121.89. The breakdown of the latter value will have to the formation of the potential for the top. Here, the goal is 122.28.

The main trend - the downward structure of July 10.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 121.59 Take profit: 121.87

Buy: 121.94 Take profit: 122.28

Sell: 121.20 Take profit: 120.94

Sell: 120.90 Take profit: 120.50

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For the pound / yen pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are : 135.04, 134.70, 134.44, 134.13, 133.94, 133.56 and 133.24. Here, we are following the development of the downward structure of July 9th. The continuation of the movement to the bottom is expected after the price passes the noise range 134.13 - 133.94. In this case, the goal is 133.56. We consider the level of 133.24 to be a potential value for the bottom. After reaching which, we expect a rollback to the top.

Short-term upward movement is possible in the range of 134.44 - 134.70. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to a prolonged correction. Here, the target is 135.04. This level is a key support for the downward structure.

The main trend is the downward cycle of July 9.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 134.45 Take profit: 134.65

Buy: 134.72 Take profit: 135.04

Sell: 133.94 Take profit: 133.56

Sell: 133.50 Take profit: 133.25

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#USDX vs GBP / USD H4 vs EUR / USD H4. Comprehensive analysis of movement options from July 17, 2019. Analysis of APLs &

Everything becomes clear in comparison...

In this regard, we look at yesterday's options for #USDX vs EUR / USD H4 vs GBP / USD H4 and relate them to the current situation on FOREX today, and then try to determine the prospects for the development of these instruments from July 17, 2019.

Minuette (H4)

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US dollar Index

After the breakdown of the resistance level of 96.95 (the final Schiff Line Minuette) #USDX was in the range again :

- resistance level of 97.38 (lower boundary of the ISL38.2 equilibrium zone of the Minuette operating scale fork);

- support level of 97.22 (a Median Line channel Minuette);

The direction of the breakdown of which will determine the development trend of the movement of the dollar index from July 17, 2019.

The breakdown of the resistance level of 97.38 - the development of the #USDX movement will continue in the equilibrium zone (97.38 - 97.50 - 97.70) of the Minuette operating scale with a perspective (after the breakdown of ISL61.8 Minuette - the resistance level of 97.70) to reach the final Shiff Line Minuette (97.95) and the final FSL line Minuette (98.22).

When the dollar index returns below the 1/2 Median Line channel Minuette (support level of 97.22), the development of the #USDX movement can be continued towards the goals - the lower boundary of the ISL38.2 (96.90) equilibrium zone of the Minuette operational scale fork - local minimum 96.75 - 1/2 Median Line channel Minuette (96.25 - 96.05 - 95.85).

The details of the #USDX movement from July 17, 2019 are presented in the animated graphic.

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Euro vs US Dollar

The 1/2 Median Line channel of the Minuette operational scale (support level of 1.1255) could not stop the downward movement of the single European currency, and EUR / USD was in the range formed by the levels:

- resistance level of 1.1235 (SSL start line for the Minuette operating scale);

- support level of 1.1220 (lower boundary of ISL61.8 equilibrium zone of the Minuette operational scale fork);

Accordingly, the further development of the EUR / USD movement from July 17, 2019 will be due to the direction of the breakdown of this range.

The breakdown of the support level of 1.1220 at the lower boundary of the ISL61.8 equilibrium zone of the Minuette operational scale fork , together with the breakdown of the support level of 1.1210, will determine the further development of the movement of EUR / USD in the channel boundaries of the 1/2 Median Line (1.1210 - 1.1195 - 1.1175) and equilibrium zone (1.1185 - 1.1165 - 1.1150) of the Minuette operational scale fork with the prospect of reaching the ultimate Schiff Line Minuette (1.1130).

On the other hand, if the EUR / USD returns above the initial SSL line (resistance level of 1.1235) of the Minuette operating scale fork, then there may be a development of the upward movement of the single European currency to the targets - the 1/2 Median Line channel of the Minuette (1.1255) - the upper boundary of the ISL38.2 (1.1290) the equilibrium zone of the Minuette operational scale fork with the prospect of reaching the lower boundary of the channel of the 1/2 Median Line Minuette (1.1340).

The details of the EUR / USD movement options from July 17, 2019 are shown in the animated graphic.

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Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar

1/2 Median Line Minuette (support level of 1.2510) was safely broken. As a result of which, Her Majesty's currency (GBP) found itself in an equilibrium zone (1.2460 - 1.2415 - 1.2375) of the Minuette operating scale. The breakdown direction of which will determine the further development of the GBP / USD movement from July 17, 2019.

The breakdown of the lower boundary of ISL61.8 (support level of 1.2375) of the Minuette operational scale fork along with the LWL38.2 Minuette warning line (1.2385) will make it possible to continue the downward movement of GBP / USD to the control line LTL Minuette (1.2315) and the warning line LWL61. 8 Minuette (1.2287).

In the case of the breakdown of the upper boundary of ISL38.2 (resistance level of 1.2460) of the Minuette operational scale, the development of Her Majesty's currency movement will continue to the 1/2 Median Line Minuette channel (1.2460 - 1.2500 - 1.2540) with the prospect of reaching the initial line SSL Minuette (1.2580) and the lower boundary of the 1/2 Median Line channel Minuette (1.2645).

The details of the GBP / USD movement from July 17, 2019 are presented in the animated graphic.

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The review was compiled without taking into account of the news background. The opening of trading sessions of the main financial centers does not serve as a guide to action (placing orders "sell" or "buy").

The formula for calculating the dollar index :

USDX = 50.14348112 * USDEUR0.576 * USDJPY0.136 * USDGBP0.119 * USDCAD0.091 * USDSEK0.042 * USDCHF0.036.

where power ratios correspond to the weights of currencies in the basket:

Euro - 57.6% ;

Yen - 13.6%;

Pound sterling - 11.9% ;

Canadian dollar - 9.1%;

Swedish krona - 4.2%;

Swiss franc - 3.6%.

The first coefficient in the formula gives the index value to 100 on the starting date - March 1973, when the main currencies began to be freely quoted relative to each other.

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GBP/USD: the chances for a "soft" Brexit are rapidly decreasing, the pound has fallen to two-year lows

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TheGBP/USD pair slipped to the lowest level since 2017 (to the level of 1.2420).

Several factors are playing against the British currency at once: this is a high probability of the implementation of a "hard" Brexit, and a moderate economic growth in the country, and the fact that the monetary policy of the Bank of England can move to a more "soft" course.

On the eve of the two candidates for prime minister, Boris Johnson and Jeremy Hunt, stated that even substantial concessions on the part of the European Union on the regulation of the Irish border may not be enough to ratify the "divorce" agreement. This heightened concerns that the new British government's stance on Brexit would be more rigid, which could lead to the breakdown of the London-Brussels talks and the withdrawal of the United Kingdom from the EU on October 31 without a deal.

According to analysts, the dynamics of the GBP/USD pair reflects the general mood of the market in relation to the pound.

In this regard, it is noteworthy that the British currency was unable to use even the positive statistics on the country's labor market today.

According to the National Statistical Office (ONS), the average salary (including premiums) increased by 3.4%, in March-May with an expected growth of 3.1%. At the same time, unemployment remained at the lowest from October-December 1974 - 3.8%.

The employment sector in the country remains one of the few that remains stable despite the constant stress caused by Brexit.

The futures market is already expecting a 50% chance of lowering interest rates by the Bank of England in 2019 due to the risk of Great Britain's chaotic exit from the EU, as the policy outweighed stronger than expected labor market data.

This month, the pound sterling hit a two-year low against the US dollar.

Analysts polled recently by Bloomberg report that the situation may worsen next month. Moreover, this is an established trend: the fall of the pound against the dollar in August has been noted over the past five years.

"In any case, we will have enough cause for concern in August, with the arrival of the new prime minister of Great Britain, as we are approaching October 31," the currency strategists of Royal Bank of Canada believe.

"Since the British Parliament has gone on summer vacation, the deadline for the UK's withdrawal from the EU is inexorably expiring," said MUFG analyst Lee Hardman.

ING Group believes that B. Johnson will become a leader who will not succeed in concluding a new agreement with Brussels. This will increase the likelihood that Great Britain will leave without a deal.

The main message of B. Johnson during the Brexit campaign was that this event would not have a negative impact on the British economy. However, the irony is that the ex-foreign minister may become the prime minister of the country just at the moment when the national economy will fully experience all the Brexit.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

The euro's clipped wings, takeoff is impossible

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Factors such as trade wars, the weakness of the eurozone, the soft monetary policy of the ECB are not in favor of the euro. Another escalation of the US-China conflict, which may well occur, will strike at European exports and increase the risks of recession in the region. The owner of the White House argues that the slowdown of China's economy to its lowest level for 27 years is nothing but an effective US tariff policy. Washington is likely to increase pressure on Beijing if the latter does not accept the conditions proposed by the Americans. Recall that Chinese authorities have repeatedly emphasized that they will not participate in this kind of dialogue.

The risks of a downturn in the euro bloc are also discussed in the OECD. The government does not stimulate the economy enough, representatives of a reputable organization believe. The contribution of state support to GDP growth is insignificant 0.3 pp, while the forecasts of an increase in the economy are significantly adjusted downward. Activities, in the first place, are expected from Germany, which is working with a budget surplus. German debt rates on 15-year securities are negative, which leads to additional investor spending, and these funds could go into the real economy. As an example, here you can take France with its fiscal stimulus of 17 billion. Thus, the country's economy for the first time in 6 years will grow faster than the average for the eurozone.

Accelerate the process of restoring the eurozone economy by 0.75 percentage points stimulating fiscal policy is quite capable in the next two years, according to the OECD. However, experts warn that the ECB can not cope with the approaching recession on their own. Based on ING research, the likelihood of a recession will increase with a slowdown in the industry. But there is one positive thing that allows us to expect that the negative growth rates of the economy will be avoided - employment in the manufacturing sector continues to expand.

In principle, the euro is not averse to grow, but the burden of problems prevents. On top of everything else, a trade conflict between the European Union and the USis brewing. In such conditions, it's hard for euro bulls to dream about $1..15, and even more so about $1.17. However, when there is a currency war, it is almost impossible to predict the result. According to representatives of PIMCO, the White House will definitely intervene in the life of foreign exchange markets, and this will happen very soon. The effectiveness of direct dollar sales against the background of a constant stream of statements about a weak national currency exchange rate and the Fed's readiness to lower rates can be very high.

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Now traders refrain from any active actions, preferring to wait for the release of data on retail sales and industrial production from the United States. Information in the releases can be a signal of how much the Fed will loosen monetary policy at a meeting in July. After Jerome Powell's speeches before Congress, the likelihood of a 50 percent reduction in the rate increased from 2% to 29%. The statistics, deprived of optimism, will raise the chances even higher and help EUR/USD buyers to push quotes to the bottom of the 13th figure.

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EUR/USD: potential decline to 1.1170 and a "powder keg" for dollar bulls

Bears of the EUR/USD pair managed to overcome the support level of 1.1230, which corresponded to the Kumo cloud boundaries on the daily chart, and then headed towards the 11th figure - or more precisely, to the next support level of 1.1170 (the bottom line of the Bollinger Bands indicator on D1). The overall market situation is unequivocally negative for the euro and fairly neutral for the dollar. However, today the US currency received support from retail sales in the US, while the single currency received another blow from the German statistics.

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Thus, the euro was pressured by figures from the ZEW Institute. In particular, the sentiment index in the business environment of Germany dropped immediately to the level of -24.5 points - this is the most negative result since last November. Analysts expected a negative trend, but, according to their forecasts, the indicator should have dropped to -22.7 points. In Europe as a whole, this indicator also remained at semi-annual lows, having stood at -20.3 points. At the same level, the indicator was released last month. After the surge of optimism in April, when for the first time in 2 years, both in Germany and in the EU as a whole, they were above zero, this dynamic looks depressing, and this fact had a corresponding impact on the single currency. Judging by the rhetoric of members of the ECB, the central bank is ready to use its whole arsenal of available actions in the fall. In particular, we are talking about the bond purchasing program and reducing the interest rate. Not so long ago, the head of the ECB acknowledged that many of the early indicators warn of a worsening situation in the eurozone, so the risks for forecasts remain downward.

By the way, tomorrow's data on the growth of European inflation may put additional pressure on the euro if they are revised downward. We will know the final data for June. According to initial estimates, the overall consumer price index rose to 1.2%, while the core index rose to 1.1%. According to the general opinion of experts, core inflation will be subject to revision - the indicator can be reduced to 1%. In this case, bears of the EUR/USD pair will have another reason to sell the single currency, and the price will certainly be consolidated within the 11th figure.

Moreover, the greenback's growth is fueled by fairly good statistics from the United States. Today, dollar bulls have pleased retail sales. Contrary to negative forecasts, indicators of consumer activity have not decreased, but in fact remained at the level of the previous period. The overall figure, as well as the figure excluding car sales, grew in June by 0.4% (with a decline forecast to 0.1%). Excluding auto and fuel sales, the indicator has been growing for the second month in a row, reaching 0.7%. Against the background of the growth of key macroeconomic indicators (strong Nonfarm and positive dynamics of inflation), these figures have provided significant support to the dollar. I note that Jerome Powell, in the course of his speeches and without this release, stated the intensification of consumer activity. He associated the main risks for the Fed with other factors (first of all, we are talking about geopolitical risks and reducing the volume of business investments).

Nevertheless, today's release made it possible for dollar bulls to once again show character - in almost all pairs, the greenback strengthened their positions, and the EUR/USD pair was no exception. In general, the dollar is gradually gaining momentum throughout the market, and either Powell or Trump can hinder this process. Here it is necessary to emphasize the fact that the Fed's July interest rate cut is largely taken into account in prices, so any reminder about this on the part of the US central bank's members is quite calmly perceived by the market. Dollar bulls fear only aggressive rates of monetary policy easing - for example, a one-time cut in the rate by 50 basis points or the beginning of a decline cycle. The "precautionary" rate cut of 0.25% was largely played by the market, especially after the Fed head's dovish speech in Congress, during which he actually announced the relevant intentions of the regulator.

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In my opinion, the greatest danger to the dollar is not the Fed, but Donald Trump, who repeatedly expressed outrage at the overvalued exchange rate of the national currency. According to Bloomberg, the US president has already instructed his advisers to develop a strategy to weaken the dollar. According to insider sources, Larry Kudlow, the chief economic adviser to the president, and Stephen Mnuchin, the minister of finance, opposed any US intervention to weaken the greenback. But according to Trump, an overly expensive dollar is almost the key obstacle to a country's economic growth. In turn, economic growth, according to the head of the White House, should provide him with a second presidential term. Here it is worth noting that the overwhelming majority of opinion polls are giving a definite advantage to former Vice-President Joe Biden. Even the Fox News channel, which clearly sympathizes with Trump, acknowledged this fact. According to their polls, Trump is almost 10% behind Biden.

Thus, good news for dollar bulls is that the greenback has acquired "immunity" regarding the Fed's stated intentions to cut the rate by 25 points (and more aggressive measures are unlikely to be applied). In addition, US statistics also provide background support for the dollar. The bad news is that Trump may initiate currency interventions, especially if the US currency continues to rise in price across the entire market. Taking into account such (possible) perspectives, dollar bulls sit on a "powder keg", which can jerk at any moment.

From a technical point of view, the EUR/USD pair has the potential to fall to the bottom line of the Bollinger Bands indicator on the daily chart, which corresponds to the mark of 1.1170. If the bears overcome this support level (which is unlikely within the next few days), the pair will head to the bottom of the 11th figure, that is, to the bottom line of the Bollinger Bands indicator on the weekly chart.

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