Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for GBP/USD for October 22, 2015

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Few months ago, the market was pushed above the weekly key zone around 1.5550 in an attempt to reach the area of 1.5900, which has been providing the GBP/USD pair with significant resistance.

The previous weekly candlestick closure above 1.5500 hindered a further bearish decline enhancing the bullish side of the market towards 1.5670 (previous weekly high) and 1.5780 (61.8% Fibonacci level).

However, recent weekly candlesticks came as bearish engulfing candles, closing below the level of 1.5450 (neckline of the Head and Shoulders pattern).

It supported the bearish side of the market in the long term. An approximate projection target should be located at the level of 1.5050 for the reversal pattern.

In the short term, the nearest demand level around 1.5170 (intraday demand level and the origin of a previous bullish engulfing weekly candlestick) provided significant bullish rejection to the pair last week.

This week, a weekly candlestick closure below the level of 1.5350 (prominent weekly bottom) is needed to allow the further bearish decline to occur.

On the other hand, persistence above it hinders further bearish momentum giving time for sideways consolidations, which extended up to the levels of 1.5500 and 1.5550.

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The previous bearish movement found its way towards the level of 1.5200 (prominent demand level), which prevented further bearish decline.

Instead of it, the evident bullish candlestick took place around 1.5200-1.5170 (resulting in bullish engulfing daily candlesticks) leading to the recent bullish pullback towards 1.5600 (the backside of the depicted uptrend). It applied significant bearish pressure to the GBP/USD pair.

The price zone of 1.5500-1.5550 remains a significant supply zone to offer valid sell entries.

Daily fixation below 1.5350 is currently needed to allow bearish movement to occur towards the level of 1.5150 (previous prominent weekly bottoms) and 1.4970 (weekly demand level).

Trading Recommendation:

Risky traders were instructed to SELL the GBP/USD pair around the zone of 1.5500-1.5530. S/L should be lowered to an entry level to offset the associated risk. Initial target levels should be located at 1.5400 and 1.5350.

On the other hand, a low-risk buy entry can be offered around the weekly demand level at 1.5000 (if a bearish breakdown of both demand levels at 1.5350 and 1.5150 occurs soon).

S/L should be placed below 1.4930.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for October 22, 2015

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The pair moved lower after breaking below major demand levels around 1.2100 and 1.2000 where historical bottoms were previously established back in July 2012 and June 2010.

EUR/USD bears have already pushed the price slightly below the monthly demand level of 1.0550 (established in January 1997). Bullish recovery was observed shortly after.

April's candlestick came as bullish engulfing one. However, the next monthly candlesticks (May, June, July, and August) reflected the recent bearish rejection, which exists around the level of 1.1450.

In the long term, a projected target is still seen at 0.9450 if a bearish breakdown at the monthly demand level of 1.0550 occurs soon.

On the other hand, a bullish corrective movement towards 1.1500 and 1.1700 can take place only if the weekly high of 1.1465 gets breached as soon as possible.

This can be achieved if the current monthly candlestick closes above the weekly high of 1.1465 by the end of this month (low probability).

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Multiple ascending bottoms were established around the levels of 1.0830 and 1.1020. These levels corresponded to a current daily uptrend depicted on the chart.

Shortly after, the market looked overbought as bulls were pushing the price further beyond the level of 1.1500 (daily supply level).

Hence, a bearish movement towards the level of 1.1150 (61.8% Fibonacci level) took place providing evident bullish rejections several times in a row.

Previously, the intraday supply zone of 1.1360-1.1400 provided significant bearish rejection. An intraday sell entry was suggested with T/P levels placed at 1.1150 (achieved) and 1.1050. The latter was not reached as the level of 1.1150 prevented further bearish decline.

Daily persistence below the level of 1.1150 (61.8% Fibonacci level) is needed to expose the next demand level around 1.1050 where the daily uptrend comes to meet the EUR/USD pair.

Conservative traders should wait for more bearish correction towards the zone of 1.1000-1.1050 (the depicted uptrend line) for a low-risk buy entry. S/L should be placed below 1.0950. T/P levels should be placed at 1.1080 and 1.1160.

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Technical analysis of GBP/USD for October 22, 2015

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Overview:

  • The GBP/USD pair opened above the support which represents the weekly pivot point at the level of 1.5383. Additionally, the market has been in an uptrend since last week. Also, the price has already broken 38.6% of Fibonacci retracement levels and 50%. Therefore, the market will probably indicate a bullish opportunity at the level of 1.5383 and 1.5425. So, according to the previous events, the price has still been trading between the prices of 1.5425 and 1.5566 in the short term. Therefore, the area above 1.5425 (above the the ratio of 50% Fibonacci retracement level on the H1 chart) looks for further upside with the first target at the 1.5515 level and continues towards 1.5566 in order to test the weekly resistance 1. The stop loss should be placed at the price of 1.5350.
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EUR/NZD : analysis for October 22, 2015

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Overview:

Recently, EUR/NZD has been moving downward. The price tested the level of 1.6681. In the daily time frame, we can observe a strong supply bar. Also, the price is moving below our SMA10 and SMA50. The price performed a fake breakout of a downward channel. Selling EUR/NZD at this stage is preferable. I am waiting for larger liquidity and stronger price actions to confirm further direction. If the price breaks the level of 1.6500, we may see the downward continuation.

Fibonacci Pivot Points :

Resistance levels:

R1: 1.6940

R2: 1.6980

R3: 1.7040

Support levels:

S1: 1.6820

S2: 1.6785

S3: 1.6725

Trading recommendations: Be careful when buying at this stage. Selling positions are preferable. Support is seen at the level of 1.6500.

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for October 22, 2015

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Overview:

  • The EUR/USD pair in the short term.
  • According to the previous events, the price has still been moving between 1.1289 and 1.1392. The level of 1.1392 will indicate strong resistance, and minor resistance is at 1.1350. Moreover, the price will form a new strong spot at this level. Also, the price of 1.3624 is coinciding with the weekly pivot point on the H1 chart. Therefore, it will be profitable to sell at 1.1392 or 1.1350 in the short term with the first target at 1.1289. If the market breaks the support at the price of 1.1289, it will continue towards 1.1231 in order to test the weekly support 2. On the other hand, the level of 1.1231 will indicate a strong support. Additionally, this price will form a double bottom at 1.1206. For that reason, it will be very gainful to buy at 1.1206 with the first target at 1.189 in order to retest it from below. However, the stop loss should be placed below 1.1230 at the level of 1.1200 this week.

Warning:

  • The key levels are set at the point of 1.1392.
  • Please check the market volatility before investing because the price may have already been reached and scenarios might have become invalidated.
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Gold : analysis for October 22 , 2015

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Overview:

Since our last analysis, gold has been trading downwards. As I expected, the price tested the level of $1,163.54 in a ultra-high volume. The short-mid term trend changed from upward to downward. In the daily time frame, we can observe a supply bar in an average volume. Besides, the 200 SMA was successfully held around the level of $1,175.00. In the M30 time frame, we can observe a volume spike (selling climax) in the background. Selling opportunities below the level of $1,163.45 are preferable. Support levels are seen at $1,166.00 (on the test), $1,156.00, and $1,142.00. Only if the price breaks the level of $1,163.45, we may see a further movement downward.

Daily Fibonacci pivot points :

Resistance levels

R1: 1,174.00

R2: 1,176.45

R3: 1,181.00

Support levels:

S1: 1,165.25

S2: 1,162.50

S3: 1,158.15

Trading recommendations: Be careful when buying gold at this stage and watch for potential selling opportunities.

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Daily analysis of Silver for October 22, 2015

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Overview

Silver price continues to fluctuate below 15.85. Stochastic gains positive momentum in the intraday time frames to support the chances of bouncing upwards and resume the bullish correctional trend. The price needs to breach the level of 15.85 to ease the mission of heading towards the current bullish wave targets located at 16.30 and 16.85. It is important to note that a breakout at 15.40 will put the price under negative pressure on a short-term basis.

Expected trading range for today is between support at 15.40 and resistance at 16.30.

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Daily analysis of GBP/JPY for October 22, 2015

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Overview

An outlook for GBP/JPY remains unchanged. A sideways consolidation from 180.36 is still in progress and further recovery might be seen. But strong resistance

at 188.28 is expected to limit upside to finish the consolidation. A breakout of 180.36 will extend the whole fall from 195.86. Then, it should target a test at the key support level of 174.86. GBP/JPY was close to key cluster resistance at 61.8% retracement of 251.09 to 116.83 at 199.80, which is close to the psychological level of 200. A break of 174.86 will confirm trend reversal and bring a deeper fall to 38.2% retracement of 116.83 to 195.86 at 165.67. In case of another rise, we should be cautious as strong resistance at 199.80/200.00 will bring reversal.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 184.57; (P) 185.06; (R1) 185.40;

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Global macro overview for 22/10/2015

Global macro overview for 22/10/2015:

At 8:30 am GMT today, the Office for National Statistics revealed the retails sales report that was better than expected (+1.9% vs. +0.4% expected). The revisions of the previous data was softer than anticipated. This is quite a good example of increased consumer spending when the wages are slowly but surely rising. In that case, the current concern of the Bank of England should be the inflation reading as the 2% target is getting harder and harder to hit.

The GBP/USD pair is still trading below the strong technical resistance at the level of 1.5508. Any breakout higher will directly expose the recent top at the level of 1.5659. The technical support is seen at the level of 1.5412.

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USDX technical analysis for October 22, 2015

The US dollar index is showing some short-term reversal signs to the upside but the longer-term view remains neutral as price remains trapped inside the trading range of a weekly bullish flag and inside the weekly cloud.

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Red line - resistance

Blue lines - bullish channel

The US dollar index is inside a bullish short-term target and breaking above the 4-hour chart Ichimoku cloud. The price is moving in a short-term bullish trend targeting the medium-term resistance at the red trend line. An important resistance area is seen between 95.50 and 95.60.

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Green line - support

Red line - resistance

The weekly candle is trying to break above the Ichimoku cloud. A close above it will be a bullish sign that will most probably push the index towards the red weekly resistance level. The longer-term trend remains neutral as the price remains inside the bullish flag.

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Global macro overview for 22/10/2015

Global macro overview for 22/10/2015:

The main event of the week, the European Central Bank meeting, is scheduled at 11:45 am GMT. The market participants expect the ECB to leave monetary policy unchanged for another month (interest rate at 0.05% vs. 0.05% prior) despite inflation falling back into negative territory (-0.1% as for the latest reading) and growth remaining sluggish. Nevertheless, the recent remarks of Ewald Nowotny regarding the possibility of QE increase (extended bond buying program beyond September 2016), if necessarily, might work as adding fuel to the fire. Investors will be closely watching ECB president Mario Draghi to support or decline this possibility.

The EUR/USD pair is trading slowly ahead of news releases, currently trying to break below the 1.1318 technical support. In case of a successful breakout, the next support is seen at the level of 1.1086.

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Gold technical analysis for October 22, 2015

Gold price is trading inside a bearish channel in the short-term. However, bulls still have slight chances of reversing to a new higher high around $1,200, but I would prefer to stay neutral at these levels.

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Red lines - bearish channel

Gold price has entered the Ichimoku cloud in the 4-hour chart. This means that bullish momentum has weakened and trend in the short-term is neutral. Price is above the 38% Fibonacci retracement so bulls still have chances to reach a new high. A breakout above the red channel will confirm this outlook.

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Red line - price projection

The weekly chart remains bullish with the price above the kijun-sen (yellow line indicator) support. Gold price could reach another new high closer to $1,200, but bulls should be very cautious as we the top is already be seen. The weekly chart stochastic can move higher and this means that we could finally see the $1,200 print.

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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for October 22, 2015

General overview for 22/10/2015 09:40 CET

After making wave b green top at the level of 136.40 the market declined and it is currently trading at the local channel line support. As the wave c green develops downwards, the next intraday support is seen at the level of 135.25, but the key level for bears is supply breakthrough zone between the levels of 134.63 and 134.76.

Support/Resistance:

136.95 - Wave D Top

136.58 - WR1

136.00 - Intraday Resistnace

135.68 - Weekly Pivot

135.25 - Intraday Support

Trading recommendations:

Sell orders (SL above the level of 136.99 and TP at the level of 134.75.) recommended yesterday should still be kept open as the market develops wave c to the downside.

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Technical analysis of USD/CAD for October 22, 2015

General overview for 22/10/2015 09:30 CET

The market has broken the level of 1.3079 and closed above it. Currently, the leading diagonal scenario is successfully developing. However, we can observe a a correction now. The support level for anticipated wave (ii) green is the zone between the levels of 1.3040 and 1.3000.

Support/Resistance:

1.3145 - Intraday Resistance

1.3079

1.3067 - WR1

1.2935 - Weekly Pivot

1.2938 - Invalidation Level

Trading recommendations:

All buy orders hit the TP level and now day traders should wait for a corrective cycle to complete before opening another buy orders in this pair.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for October 22, 2015

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Wave summary:

A failure to break above the base-channel resistance line has forced a less aggressive path, than we had first expected. However, support at 1.6546 should continue to protect the downside for a new attempt to break above the base-channel resistance line for upside acceleration towards 1.7198 and 1.8019.

Only an unexpected break below support at 1.6546 will question whether or not the bottom is in place.

Trading recommendation:

We are long EUR from 1.6555 with stop placed at 1.6540. If you are not long EUR yet, then buy near 1.6546 and use the same stop at 1.6540.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for October 22, 2015

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Wave summary:

We really do not have much to add, as we continue to watch for a move lower and ultimately a downside thrust out of the triangle.

In the short term, we would like to see a break below minor support at 136.04, which will be the first good indication that wave iii lower is developing for a decline to at least 132.98. A decline below 133.11 is likely to confirm the downside thrust and call for a decline to below 126.05 in the longer term.

It will take a break above minor resistance at 136.48 to invalidate our bearish count, but a break above 137.44 will be needed to invalidate the bearish outlook altogether.

Trading recommendation:

We are short EUR from 135.95 and have lowered the stop to 136.50. If you are not short EUR yet, then sell EUR near 135.79 or upon a break below 135.04 and use the same stop at 136.50

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for October 22, 2015

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When the European market opens, some economic news on the Consumer Confidence, Minimum Bid Rate, and Spanish Unemployment Rate.The US will release data on the Natural Gas Storage, CB Leading Index m/m, Existing Home Sales, HPI m/m, and Unemployment Claims. So amid the reports, EUR/USD will move with low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY TECHNICAL LEVELS:

Breakout BUY Level: 1.1402.

Strong Resistance:1.1395.

Original Resistance: 1.1384.

Inner Sell Area: 1.1373.

Target Inner Area: 1.1346.

Inner Buy Area: 1.1319.

Original Support: 1.1308.

Strong Support: 1.1297.

Breakout SELL Level: 1.1290.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for October 22, 2015

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In Asia, Japan will release data on All Industries Activity m/m and Trade Balance. The US will release some economic data about Natural Gas Storage, CB Leading Index m/m, Existing Home Sales, HPI m/m, and Unemployment Claims. So, there is a strong probability that the USD/JPY pair will move with low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY TECHNICAL LEVELS:

Resistance. 3: 120.49.

Resistance. 2: 120.26.

Resistance. 1: 120.03.

Support. 1: 119.74.

Support. 2: 119.51.

Support. 3: 119.26.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

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Daily analysis of major pairs for October 22, 2015

EUR/USD: The EUR/USD pair has only moved sideways from Monday till now and it is better to wait until there would be a break out of the current equilibrium phase. The price would either go above the resistance line at 1.1400 or below the support line of 1.1300. The current bias is bullish, so a breakout to the upside is more likely. Some fundamental figures would be released today and they might have a significant impact on the market.

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USD/CHF: the USD/CHF has been consolidating to the upside this week though the bias remains bearish. The price is now close to the resistance level of 0.9600, but there cannot be any threat to the existing bearish bias as long as the price is below the resistance level of 0.9700. Right now, the Williams' % Range period 20 is in the overbought region, but the EMA 11 is yet to cross the EMA 56 to the upside.

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GBP/USD: There is still a Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the GBP/USD chart, albeit the price has been corrected a bit downwards. When a breakout does occur, it is more likely that it would be to the upside, since the outlook for the GBP/USD pair is bullish (which might hold true for the rest of the month).

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USD/JPY: Since October 15, 2015, the USD/JPY pair has been making some bullish effort. The price has moved upwards by close to 200 pips since then, testing the supply level of 120.00 now. The supply level could be easily breached today or tomorrow. If another supply level of 121.00 is eventually breached, that would harbinger a strong trending movement.

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EUR/JPY: An outlook for this pair is still bullish in spite of the fact that the price looks a bit like consolidating. The bullish outlook would hold as long as the demand zone of 135.00 is not breached to the downside. Until that happens, any bearish corrections here would be taken as opportunities to go long.

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Daily analysis of USDX for October 22, 2015

The USDX is getting outside the sideways range established around the 200 SMA zone in the H1 chart, but the index could perform a rally towards the resistance level of 95.30. If the USDX succeeds in breaking this level to the upside, it is expected to test the zone around 95.60, which confirm that the short-term bullish trend has started already. The MACD indicator remains at the positive territory.

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H1 chart's resistance levels: 95.30 / 95.60

H1 chart's support levels: 94.98 / 94.61

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place sell (short) orders only if the US dollar index breaks with a bearish candlestick; the support level is at 94.98, take profit is at 94.61, and stop loss is at 95.36.

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Daily analysis of GBP/USD for October 22, 2015

A current intraday trand is calling for a correction in favor of bearish force. So the pair could make a rebound above the 200 SMA in the H1 chart, with a possible target towards the resistance level of 1.5458, which is a level that has been tested several times. However, this scenario could change when the cable performs a consolidation below the support level of 1.5374 with a lower low pattern formation. The MACD indicator is entering the negative territory.

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H1 chart's resistance levels: 1.5458 / 1.5506

H1 chart's support levels: 1.5411 / 1.5374

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place buy (long) orders only if the GBP/USD pair breaks a bullish candlestick; the resistance level is seen at 1.5458, take profit is at 1.5506, and stop loss is at 1.5411.

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for October 21, 2015

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USD/JPY is expected to trade with bullish bias. Overnight, US stocks dipped amid a sell-off in healthcare shares and International Business Machines' downbeat earnings report. The Dow Jones Industrial Average edging down 0.1% to 17,217, the S&P 500 was also down 0.1% to 2,030, while the Nasdaq Composite declined 0.5% to 4,880. Nymex crude oil fell 0.7% to $45.55 per barrel and gold was up 0.5% to $1,176 per ounce. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield grew to 2.067% from 2.028% in the previous session. Meanwhile, the US dollar was broadly firm against most other major currencies. NZD/USD plunged to as low as 0.6732 after reaching the day-high at 0.6846. On the other hand, USD/CAD dropped to as low as 1.2930 from the day-high of 1.3049 after Justin Trudeau's Liberal Party secured a majority government in the latest national elections. The pair keeps trading on the upside after breaking above a triangle pattern. The 20-period intraday moving average (MA) remains above the 50-period one, while the intraday relative strength index (RSI) stands above the neutrality level of 50. The upside prevails and the pair is expected to proceed towards the first upside target at 120.15 (last seen on October 12).

Trading recommendations:

The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a wider range as long as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price holds above its pivot point, long positions are recommended with the first target at 120.15 and the second target at 120.35. In the alternative scenario, short positions are recommended with the first target at 119.20 if the price moves below its pivot points. A break of this target is likely to push the pair further downwards, and one may expect the second target at 118.90. The pivot point is at 119.55.

Resistance levels:120.15 120.35 120.75

Support levels: 119.20 118.90 118.60

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for October 21, 2015

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USD/CHF is expected to trade in a higher range. The pair has broken above the 20- and 50-period intraday MAs, which are providing support. The intraday RSI is above its neutrality level at 50 and lacks downward momentum. As long as 0.9525 holds as the key support, look for a further advance to 0.9615. A break above this level would call for a further upside towards 0.9645.

Trading recommendations:

The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a wider range as long as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price holds above its pivot point, long positions are recommended with the first target at 0.9615 and the second target at 0.9645. In the alternative scenario, short positions are recommended with the first target at 0.95 if the price moves below its pivot points. A break of this target is likely to push the pair further downwards, and one may expect the second target at 0.9475. The pivot point is at 0.9525.

Resistance levels: 0.9615 0.9645 0.9695

Support levels: 0.95 0.9475 0.9450

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for October 21, 2015

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NZD/USD is under pressure. After breaking below the 0.6800 level overnight, the pair is trading below its declining 20-period intraday MA, which stands below the descending 50-period one. The intraday RSI is below its neutrality level at 50. As long as 0.6785 holds as the key resistance, look for a further downside towards 0.6700.

Trading recommendations:

The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as long as it remains below the pivot point. Short positions are recommended with the first target at 0.67. A breakout of that target will move the pair further downwards to 0.6650. The pivot point stands at 0.6785. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, it will move above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. According to that scenario, long positions are recommended with the first target at 0.6845 and the second target at 0.69.

Resistance levels: 0.6845 0.69 0.6925 Support levels: 0.67 0.6650 0.6600

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Technical analysis of GBP/JPY for October 21, 2015

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GBP/JPY is expected to trade with bullish bias. The pair is well supported by its rising 50-period intraday MA and remains on the upside. The 20-period MA also stays above the 50-period one, which confirms a bullish bias. The intraday RSI is above its 50% neutrality area. Further upside is therefore expected with the next horizontal resistance and overlap set at 184.60 at first. A break above this level would call for further advance towards 185.80 in extension.

Trading recommendations:

The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a wider range as long as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price holds above its pivot point, long positions are recommended with the first target at 185.80 and the second target at 185.80. In the alternative scenario, short positions are recommended with the first target at 184.05 if the price moves below its pivot points. A break of this target is likely to push the pair further downwards, and one may expect the second target at 183.60. The pivot point is at 184.60.

Resistance levels: 185.80 186.45 187.25

Support levels: 184.05 183.60 183

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