NZD/USD Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for July 4, 2016

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Bullish persistence above 0.6550 (the depicted support) was necessary to keep the price moving towards higher bullish targets.

In February and March, signs of bearish rejection (triple-top reversal pattern) were expressed around the price level of 0.6750 until April when a bullish breakout above 0.6750 and 0.6860 was executed.

Later on May 6, daily candlestick closure below the 0.6850 level enhanced a quick bearish movement towards 0.6750 where bullish rejection was expected to be applied. However, obvious bearish closure below 0.6750 was achieved on May 24.

On May 30, obvious bullish rejection was expressed around the price level of 0.6675 (the lower limit of the depicted channel). That's why, the recent bullish breakout is taking place above 0.6860.

As long as the NZD/USD pair kept trading above 0.6860, further bullish advancement was expected towards the price zone around 0.7200 (the upper limit of the depicted channel).

Price action should be watched around the price zone of 0.7150 - 0.7200 (the upper limit of the depicted channel) for a valid SELL entry ( recent Head and Shoulders reversal pattern is being expressed on the chart).

T/P levels should be located at 0.6970, 0.6900 and 0.6850. S/L should be placed above 0.7260.

On the other hand, the price zone between 0.6760 - 0.6860 constitutes a significant support zone to offer bullish rejection and a valid BUY entry if any bearish swing persists below 0.7000.

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USD/CAD intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for July 4, 2016

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On May 16, a bullish pullback towards 1.3000 (61.8% Fibonacci level) was expected to offer a valid signal to sell the USD/CAD pair. However, a lack of significant bearish rejection was manifested during recent consolidations.

On May 18, temporary bullish fixation above 1.3000 (61.8% Fibonacci level) opened the way towards the 1.3180 level where significant bearish pressure was originated.

Bearish persistence below 1.3000-1.2970 (61.8% Fibonacci level) was needed to enhance bearish momentum in the market.

However, recent signs of bullish recovery were manifested around the price level of 1.2650 on June 9.

The recent bullish pullback towards the price level of 1.3000-1.3070 (61.8% Fibonacci level) was considered for another SELL entry. S/L should be placed above 1.3150. Initial T/P levels should be located at 1.2820 and 1.2710.

On the other hand, the price zone of 1.2400-1.2500 constitutes a significant support zone to be watched for BUY entries when enough bearish pressure is applied below 1.2650.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for GBP/USD for July 4, 2016

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Since January 2016, bullish persistence above 1.4500 was mandatory to maintain enough bullish strength in the market.

However, the previous weekly candlesticks maintained their bearish persistence below the depicted weekly supply zone (below 1.4470), which allowed further bearish decline to occur.

The prominent demand level located at 1.3845 (historical bottom that goes back to March 2009) provided a significant bullish rejection and a bullish engulfing weekly candlestick on February 26.

Bullish fixation above 1.4670 allowed further bullish advancement initially towards 1.4950 (Weekly Supply) where significant bearish rejection was expressed.

The price zone between 1.3845 and 1.3550 (Historical bottoms in January 2009) was considered a significant demand zone to be watched for bullish recovery.

However, temporary bearish breakdown below 1.3550 is currently manifested on the depicted charts.

Note that the price zone of 1.3845-1.4040 now constitutes the recent supply zone to be watched for new SELL entries if the current bullish pullback extends above 1.3550.

On the other hand, bearish persistence below the demand level at 1.3550 enhances the bearish scenario. Bearish decline towards 1.3050 (the nearest bearish projection target) should be expected then.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for July 4, 2016

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In January 2015, the EUR/USD pair moved below the major demand levels near 1.2100 where historical bottoms were previously set in July 2012 and June 2010. Hence, a long-term bearish target was projected towards 0.9450.

In March 2015, the EUR/USD bears challenged the next monthly demand level around 1.0570, which had been previously reached in August 1997.

Later in April 2015, a strong bullish recovery was observed around the mentioned demand level. However, next monthly candlesticks (September, October, and November) reflected a strong bearish rejection around the area of 1.1400-1.1500.

Again In February 2016, the depicted price levels around 1.1400-1.1500 acted as a significant supply zone during the bullish pullback.

That is why, recent bearish rejection was expected around the current price levels (note the monthly candlesticks of May and June).

In the long term, the level of 0.9450 will remain a projected bearish target if the current monthly candlestick comes to close below the depicted monthly demand level of 1.0570.

On the other hand, note that a monthly candlestick closure above 1.1400 invalidates this bearish outlook on an intermediate-term basis (low probability).

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Similar to what happened in October 2015, the supply zone of 1.1410-1.1550 constituted a significant resistance zone for the EUR/USD pair.

Later on May 18, daily persistence below the levels of 1.1400 and 1.1200 was needed to ensure enough bearish momentum towards the 1.1100 and 1.1000 levels. However, a lack of bearish pressure was manifested on June 1.

Hence, the recent bullish closure above 1.1200 enhanced further bullish advancement towards 1.1400 where evident signs of bearish rejection and a valid SELL entry were previously suggested. That's why, obvious bearish breakdown of 1.1200 took place on June 16

However, evident bullish rejection around 1.1130 (depicted uptrend line) brought the EUR/USD pair above 1.1200 again.

As anticipated, the recent bullish pullback towards the zone of 1.1400 offered a valid SELL entry. All T/P levels were successfully reached.

The long-term outlook for the EUR/USD pair remains bearish as the monthly chart illustrates.

However, the price zone of 1.1000-1.0950 (previous consolidation range) constituted a demand zone to offer a short-term BUY entry. T/P levels to be located at 1.1110, 1.1180 and 1.1220.

Price action should be watched around the price level of 1.1200 for a valid SELL entry if the current bullish pullback extends above 1.1100.

On the other hand, bearish fixation below 1.1000 allows a quick bearish decline towards 1.0820 to occur.

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Technical analysis of GBP/USD for July 04, 2016

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Overview:

  • The GBP/USD pair is not making any significant movements this morning. The bias remains bearish in the nearest term testing 1.3120 or lower. Immediate support is seen around 1.3217. A clear break below that area could lead price to the neutral zone in the nearest term. Price will test 1.3120 or 1.3080, because in general, we remain bearish on July 4th, 2016. Yesterday, the market opened from its bottom at 1.3247 and continued to rise towards the top of 1.3302. Today, on the one-hour chart, the current rise will remain within a framework of correction. However, if the pair fails to pass through the level of 1.3327 (major resistance), the market will indicate a bearish opportunity below the strong resistance level of 1.3327 (the level of 1.3327 coincides with the ratio of the 50% Fibonacci retracement). Since there is nothing new in this market, it is not bullish yet. Sell deals are recommended below the level of 1.3307 with the first target at 1.3120 so as to test the double bottom. If the trend breaks the double bottom level of 1.3120, the pair is likely to move downwards continuing the development of a bearish trend to the level of 1.3080 in order to test the weekly support 1.

Technical levels:

  • R3: 1.3906
  • R2: 1.3720
  • R1: 1.3493
  • PP: 1.3307
  • S1: 1.3080
  • S2: 1.2894
  • S3: 1.2667
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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for July 04, 2016

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Overview:

  • The EUR/USD pair will continue rising from the level of 1.1092 in the short term. It should be noted that the support is established at the level of 1.1092, which represents the ratio of the 61.8% Fibonacci Expansion on the H1 chart. The price is likely to form a double bottom in the same time frame. Accordingly, the EUR/USD pair is showing signs of strength following a breakout of the highest level of 1.1092. So, buy above the level of 1.1092 with the first target at 1.1169. It continues further towards the levels of 1.1215 in order to test the daily resistance 1. The level of 1.1215 is a good place to take profits today. Moreover, the RSI is still signaling that the trend is upward as it remains strong above the moving average (100). This suggests that the pair will probably go up in coming hours. If the trend is able to break the level of 1.1215, then the market will call for a strong bullish market towards the objective of 1.1291. On the other hand, in case a reversal takes place and the EUR/USD pair breaks through the support level of 1.1092, a further decline to 1.1000 can occur. It would indicate a bearish market.

Comment:

  • It is expected that the range will be traded between the 1.1000 and 1.1291 levels this week.
  • Please check out the market volatility before investing, because the sight price may have already been reached and scenarios might have become invalidated.

Technical levels:

  • R3: 1.1414
  • R2: 1.1291
  • R1: 1.1215
  • PP: 1.1092
  • S1: 1.1016
  • S2: 1.0893
  • S3: 1.0817
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EUR/NZD analysis for July 04, 2016

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Recently, EUR/NZD has been moving downwards. As I expected, the price tested the level of 1.5440 in a high volume. My target level at the price of 1.5455 has been reached. According to the 30M time frame, I found strong downward pressure and breakout of support at 1.5450. I have placed Fibonacci expansion from the most recent swings. I got Fibonacci expansion 100% at the price of 1.5440 (currently on the test) and Fibonacci expansion 161.8% at the price of 1.5390 (downward station).

Fibonacci Pivot Points:

Resistance levels:

R1: 1.5575

R2: 1.5600

R3: 1.5655

Support levels:

S1: 1.5480

S2: 1.5450

S3: 1.5400

Trading recommendations for today: Watch for selling opportunities on pullbacks

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Gold analysis for July 04, 2016

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Since our previous analysis, gold has been trading upwards. As I expected, the price tested the level of $1,357.30 in a high volume. According to the 30M time frame, I found that demand is in control in the market. The price went into correction and I found successful testing of supply at the price of $1,345.75. There is also successful rejection from our 21 SMA, which is ф good sign that we may see further upward continuation. I have placed Fibonacci expansion to find potential upward targets. I found Fibonacci expansion 61.8% at the price of $1,356.00, Fibonacci expansion 100% at the price of $1,363.75 and Fibonacci expansion 161.8% at the price of $1,376.00.

Daily Fibonacci pivot points:

Resistance levels:

R1: 1,347.30

R2: 1.349.40

R3: 1,352.70

Support levels:

S1: 1,340.65

S2: 1,338.65

S3: 1,335.30

Trading recommendations for today: Selling gold looks risky at this stage. So, watch for potential buying opportunities.

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Global macro overview for 04/07/2016

Global macro overview for 04/07/2016:

The UK estimate GDP data were released last week. According to the Office for National Statistics, the third estimate of the UK's first quarter GDP showed that the economy expanded 0.4% on a quarterly base, unrevised from the previous forecast and in line with market expectations. The main indicator for the slowdown was the weaker business investment and growing trade deficit. Moreover, the annual GDP growth was also unrevised at 2%. In conclusion, the consequences of Brexit are not even slightly priced in yet, so investors might expect the GDP to be even worse that the recently estimated data.

Let's now take a look at the GBP/USD technical picture in the daily time frame. The market in fully controlled by the bear camp and the recent technical resistance at the level of 1.3500 is now the most important level for them to keep their dominance. Moreover, the price is clearly trading below the 55, 100 and 200 DMA, which supports the bearish outlook.

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Global macro overview for 04/07/2016

Global macro overview for 04/07/2016:

The main reason for the quiet start of the week is the Independence Day celebration in the USA, but the rest of the week looks anything but dull. The main story is, of course, the Brexit consequences and investors should now take the wait-and-see approach towards the future UK relationships with EU. The initial reaction from the last week was a panic selling, but now the markets seem to be confused in which way to turn. The political situation does not help at all as the public still do not know who will lead the British nations through this particular uncertain time. The UK won't be the only focus for investors this week though with a number of key pieces of economic data being released, there is none more important than Friday's US jobs report. The most important data, in my opinion, is listed below (all times GMT):

Monday 08:30am - UK Construction PMI

Tuesday 04:30am - RBA Rate Decision

Wednesday 06:00pm - FOMC Meeting Minutes

Thursday 12:30pm - Unemployment Claims

Friday 12:30pm - NFP Payroll

Let's now take a look at the EUR/USD technical picture in the 4H time frame. The market is now in the corrective cycle and it trades between two important levels: technical resistance is at the level of 1.1180 and technical support is at the level of 1.0970. The bigger time frame cycles indicate, however, that bears might regain the control over this market anytime soon. Any lower high made below the level of 1.1428 supports this view.

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Technical analysis of USD/CAD fo July 4, 2016

General overview for 04/07/2016:

The corrective cycle to the downside is still in progress and there is one more wave needed to complete the pattern. The projected target for wave c of the wave (ii) is at the level of 1.2788, so the market should rebound from this zone. Please notice, that the level of 1.2676 is the line in the sand for the impulsive structure and it can not be violated.

Support/Resistance:

1.2676 - Invalidation Level

1.2698 - WS2

1.2788 - WS1

1.2858 - Intraday Support

1.2927 - Intraday Resistance

1.2952 - Weekly Pivot

1.3045 - WR1

1.3118 - Wave (i) Top

Trading recommendations:

Day traders should consider opening buy orders at the level of 1.2788, with SL below the level of 1.2676 and TP open for now. The reason for this trade is that the market should rebound and the uptrend should continue soon.

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Technical analysis of USDX for July 4, 2016

The dollar index remains inside the triangle pattern with no clear trend direction. The price looks like it needs more time to consolidate a big upward spike after the Brexit result. Space inside the triangle is running out so this week I expect to see a breakout with the most probable direction to the upside.

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Black lines - triangle pattern

The dollar index is trading above the cloud but still inside the triangle pattern. Support is at 95.60 and resistance, at 96.25. The trend is neutral so traders should be very cautious. Buying near support and selling near resistance is preferred. Best strategy however is to wait for the breakout.

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The weekly candle is out and below the weekly Kumo. Unless we see a strong upward move and close this week, things will be very difficult for the dollar bulls. A pullback at least towards 94.85 to test back the broken red trend line will be justified. Weekly resistance is at 95.90-96.05.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of Gold for July 4, 2016

Gold price continues to move higher towards our $1,400 target as we suggested from last week. Bulls should raise their stops to $1.328 at least if not $1,333. I remain bullish Gold.

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Black lines - triangle (broken)

Gold price has reached the post-Brexit highs as we expected and I believe it can continue higher towards $1,400 over this week. Trend is bullish as price is making higher highs and higher lows while price stays above both the tenkan- and kijun-sen indicators. Support is at $1,340 and resistance at $1,360.

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Red lines - widening triangle

Resistance at $1,360-70 could prove strong if this widening triangle scenario plays out. Either way bulls should be cautious as a pull back is justified. Taking profits is not a bad idea but this rally can extend even above $1,400. Trend is clearly bullish and we remain bullish as I believe the long-term trend has reversed.

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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for July 4, 2016

General overview for 04/07/2016:

The corrective cycle in wave iv is evolving into a complex and time-consuming pattern, possibly a triangle or any other WXY complex structure. The technical resistance at the level of 115.48 is still the most important level for any bullish rally as it can not be violated. There is still one more wave to the downside missing in order to complete the structure.

Support/Resistance:

109.07 - WS3

109.55 - Wave iii Bottom

110.32 - WS2

111.37 - Intraday Support

112.53 - WS1

113.29 - Intraday Support

113.66 - Weekly Pivot

114.78 - Intraday Resistance

115.48 - Technical Resistance

116.00 - WR1

117.07 - WR2

119.33 - WR3

Trading recommendations:

Day traders should consider opening sell orders at current price levels, with SL above the level of 115.50 and TP open for now. The reason for this trade is, that there is still one more wave to the downside missing.

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for July 04, 2016

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USD/JPY is expected to trade under pressure. On Friday, U.S. stock indices posted the modest gains giving a winning streak of four straight sessions. Trading volume was very light ahead of the long weekend (U.S. markets are closed on Monday, July 4 for the Independence Day). The Dow Jones Industrial Average edged up 0.1% to 17,949 and the Nasdaq Composite was up 0.4% to 4,862. The S&P 500 stepped up 0.2% to 2,102, bringing its four-day advance to 5.1% and posting its best week since November. Automobile, retailing, and pharmaceutical & biotech shares advanced the most.

The European stocks continued to score, with the Stoxx Europe 600 rising 0.7%.

The benchmark U.S. 10-year treasury yield sank to a record intraday low of 1.385% before closing at 1.446%, down from 1.492% on Thursday. Gold surged 1.5% to $1,342 an ounce, while silver soared 5.6% to $19.74 an ounce. Meanwhile Nymex crude oil rebounded 1.4% to $48.99 a barrel.

On the economic front, the ISM Manufacturing Index posted 53.2 in June (vs. 51.3 expected, 51.3 in May), and the Markit U.S. Manufacturing PMI was at 51.3 in June (vs 51.2 expected, 50.7 in May).

In the forex trading, the U.S. dollar weakened broadly against other major currencies. EUR/USD rose 0.3% to 1.1135 and USD/JPY fell 0.7% to 102.51. On the other hand, the British pound kept showing a lack of upward momentum, with GBP/USD declining 0.3% further to 1.3261.

Commodities-linked currencies strengthened further. USD/CAD edged down 0.1% to 1.2915 in a volatile session marking a day-high at 1.2974 and a day-low at 1.2859. NZD/USD gained 0.5% to 0.7167, advancing 2.5% in a four-day winning streak.

AUD/USD rose 0.6% to 0.7492 on Friday, but came under pressure this morning as the latest federal election in Australia has not resulted in a clear majority for Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull's Liberal Party-led coalition or the opposition Labor Party.The pair broke below a bullish trend line drawn from June 27 and breached the key support at 102.55 on Friday, turning the intraday outlook bearish. Currently, it remains capped by the descending 50-period (30-minute chart) moving average, while the 20-period moving average stands below the 50-period one. As long as the bearish bias persists, the pair would post choppy price action targeting 102.15 on the downside.

Recommendations:

The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as long as it remains below the pivot point. Short positions are recommended with the first target at 102.15. A break below this target will move the pair further downwards to 101.70. The pivot point stands at 103. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, it will move above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. According to that scenario, long positions are recommended with the first target at 103.40 and the second one, at 104.

Resistance levels: 103.40, 104.00, 105.00

Support levels: 102.15, 101.70, 101.40

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for July 04, 2016

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USD/CHF is expected to trade in lower range as the movement is capped by a negative trend line.U.S. stock indices posted the modest gains giving a winning streak of four straight sessions. Trading volume was very small ahead of the long weekend (U.S. markets are closed on Monday, July 4 for the Independence Day holiday) The pair stays below its key resistance at 0.9775, and remains capped by a descending trend line since June 30. At the same time, the relative strength index is mixed to bearish. In conclusion, as long as 0.9775 holds on the upside, the pair is likely to return to 0.9710, and then to 0.9690.

Resistance levels: 0.9840, 0.9900, 0.9945

Support levels: 0.9725, 0.9725, 0.9660

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for July 04, 2016

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NZD/USD is expected to trade with bullish bias as the movement is supported by a rising trend line. The pair has been supported by a rising trend line since June 29 and is likely to challenge the horizontal resistance at 0.7200 in sight. Meanwhile, both the 20-period and 50-period moving averages are heading upwards. In addition, the relative strength index is mixed to bullish. To sum up, further upside is therefore expected with the next horizontal resistance at 0.7200 at first. A break above 0.7200 would trigger a new rise towards 0.7255.

Recommendation:

The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a wider range as long as it remains above its pivot point. Therefore, long positions are recommended with the first target at 0.720 and the second one, at 0.7255. In the alternative scenario, short positions are recommended with the first target at 0.7095 if the price moves below its pivot points. A break of this target is likely to push the pair further downwards, and one may expect the second target at 0.7055. The pivot point is at 0.7125.

Resistance levels: 0.720, 0.7255, 0.73

Support levels: 0.7095, 0.7055, 0.7015

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Technical analysis of GBP/JPY for July 04, 2016

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GBP/JPY is expected to trade with bearish bias as key resistance lies at 137.On Friday, U.S. stock indices posted the modest gains giving a winning streak of four straight sessions. Trading volume was very small ahead of the long weekend (U.S. markets are closed on Monday, July 4 for the Independence Day holiday). The pair is moving sideways below its key resistance at 137, while the relative strength index is around 50 and lacks upward momentum. As long as 137 holds as key resistance, a drop towards 135.85 is possible.

Trading recommendations:

The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as long as it remains below the pivot point. Short positions are recommended with the first target at 135.85. A break below this target will move the pair further downwards to 135. The pivot point stands at 137. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, it will move above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. According to that scenario, long positions are recommended with the first target at 137.70 and the second one, at 138.70.

Resistance levels: 137.70, 138.70, 139.65

Support levels: 135.85, 135, 133.30

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for July 4, 2016

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Wave summary:

No change in view here.

We expect minor support at 1.5411 will be able to protect the downside for a break above 1.5600 confirming a rally to 1.5816 to complete the correction in wave (ii) and set the stage for the next impulsive decline in wave (iii) towards 1.4490.

Trading recommednation:

Sell near 1.5816 and place your stop order at 1.5870.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for July 4, 2016

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Wave summary:

We continue to look for a break below the minor support line near 113.96 as the trigger for a decline towards 108.17. This decline will be confirmed by a break below support at 113.31.

In the larger picture, we are coming to a long-term corrective low, but still need a few more waves to build before the bottom finally is in place and a new long-term impulsive rally can begin.

Trading recommendation:

Sell a break below 113.96 and place stop just 5 pips above the most recent top. Place take profit at 108.25.

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AUD/NZD trading recommendation for 4th July 2016

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Trading recommendations:

Buy above 1.0400

Take profit at 1.0490

Stop loss at 1.0335

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NZD/USD Trading Recommendations 4th July 2016

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Trading recommendations :

Sell at 0.7140

Stop loss at 0.7210

Take profit at 0.7020

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Daily analysis of major pairs for July 4, 2016

EUR/USD: This pair went upwards by 150 pips last week in a context of a downtrend. A movement of another 200 pips to the upside would result in a Bullish Confirmation Pattern. However, since the outlook on this pair is bearish for this week, price could experience another smooth bearish journey, which could turn out to be favorable to bears.

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USD/CHF: The USD/CHF pair made a faint bullish effort last week, testing the resistance line at 0.9800, after which price bent downwards in a slight bearish correction. There is a precarious bullish signal on the 4-hour chart, but price needs to go further upwards so that the bullish signal is still valid. A continuous bearish correction could cancel the bullish signal.

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GBP/USD: This trading instrument did not display any bullish or bearish domination last week, though everything remains in the context of a downtrend. Bears might continue proving their stamina, because the outlook on the market (and other GBP pairs), is bearish for this week. The accumulation territories at 1.3100 and 1.3050 are vulnerable.

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USD/JPY: The USD/JPY pair only moved sideways last week, and the chances of a rising momentum are slim this week. The outlook on the market, as well as other JPY pairs, is bearish for this week and this month. Bears could thus target the demand levels at 102.00 and 101.50 this week.

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EUR/JPY: This cross went upwards by 250 pips last week, but the bearish bias on the market remains valid. A northward movement of 300 pip would result in a Bullish Confirmation Pattern, while a southward movement would simply emphasize the extant bearish bias.

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Daily analysis of USDX for July 04, 2016

A short-term picture for USDX is still calling for more upsides as the index remains supported by the 200 SMA on H1 chart, which is also offering dynamic support. Next strong resistance is located around the 96.60, where a breakout should open the doors to test the 97.52 price zone. MACD indicator is entering neutral territory, adding uncertainty to the current outlook for the USD index.

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H1 chart's resistance levels: 95.89 / 96.60

H1 chart's support levels: 95.20 / 94.37

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place buy (long) orders only if the USD Index breaks with a bullish candlestick; the resistance level is at 95.89, take profit is at 96.60, and stop loss is at 95.17.

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Daily analysis of GBP/USD for July 04, 2016

The pair continues to trade with a bearish tone below the 1.3380 level, where sellers are actively pushing the Cable lower towards new lows. Currently, the support zone of 1.3148 could see a breakout and test the next key area around the 1.3000 psychological level as the 200 SMA on H1 chart. On a short-term basis the pair is pointing to the downside. MACD indicator still favors that scenario.

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H1 chart's resistance levels: 1.3380 / 1.3653

H1 chart's support levels: 1.3148 / 1.3000

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place sell (short) orders only if the GBP/USD pair breaks a bearish candlestick; the support level is at 1.3148, take profit is at 1.3000 and stop loss is at 1.3298.

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