Global macro overview for 13/12/2017

In November, the annual growth of US consumer prices reached a consensual level of 2.2%, which should be treated as a result of a strong rebound in energy prices in the face of cheaper food and fuels for private transport. A slight disappointment was provided by CPI Core prices, which came just below market expectations (1.7% y/y, consensus: 1.8%). The decomposition of price pressure reflects the argument of more hawkish-minded Fed members, which contributes to the appreciable depreciation of the US Dollar.

CPI serves as the headline figure for inflation. Simply put, inflation reflects a decline in the purchasing power of the dollar, where each dollar buys fewer goods and services. In terms of measuring inflation, CPI is the most obvious way to quantify changes in purchasing power. The report tracks changes in the price of a basket of goods and services that a typical American household might purchase. An increase in the Consumer Price Index indicates that it takes more dollars to purchase the same set basket of basic consumer items.

Let's now take a look at the US Dollar Index technical picture at the H4 time frame after the CPI data was posted and before the FOMC interest rate decision. The market moved slightly below the technical support at the level of 93.89 and tested the dashed black trend line. The key resistance remains at the level of 94.18 - 94.40, but for now, the market is not willing to test it or break it yet as the oversold conditions favor the downside for the moment.

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Global macro overview for 13/12/2017

Before the last meeting of the FOMC in 2017, everything indicates a third this year rate hike by 25 bps, from 1.25% to 1.50%. The two-day meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) ends on Wednesday 13 December with the publication of the decision on interest rates at 07:00 pm GMT. Together with the decision, the macroeconomic statement and forecasts will be published. The press conference of Fed chairman Janet Yellen is scheduled for 07:30 pm GMT. However, the market will be more interested in the prospects for monetary policy for the future. Economists expect the Fed to remain optimistic with hopes for inflation acceleration and a favorable impact of fiscal policy, maintaining the forecast of three hikes in 2018.

For weeks, the market is convinced that the December FOMC meeting will bring an increase in interest rates. The guidelines were included in the statements after the last meeting, according to which "many members believe that another hike in a short time is justified"The macroeconomic conditions remain favorable for further normalization of monetary policy. The economic growth is nearly 3.0%, the labor market is tightening and the unemployment rate is 4.1%, which is already below the estimates of the "natural side of unemployment". In addition, from Congress there are signals about almost certain approval of the tax reform and the beginning of new infrastructure projects from the new year. The problem for this is persistently low inflation, which does not show any sign of acceleration to the 2.0% target from 1.4% currently.

The FOMC message and press conference of the Chairperson Jannet Yellen offers two kinds of risks. On the dovish side, the concerns of FOMC members about the persistence of low inflation and dubiousness in its transitional character will stand out. However, it is unlikely that these fears may weigh heavily on the sound of the press conference, which will be the last in the performance of Chairperson Yellen. Due to the fact that Yellen was the main voice emphasizing the transitory nature of low inflationary pressure, now it probably will not change its opinion and she will be defending forecasts that show inflation returning to the target in the medium term. Moving the attention to the positive risks associated with fiscal policy may add a hawkish accent. Considering that the valuation of the hike in March 2018 is currently at the level of 60-70 percent, it does not give much scope for upward revision at this stage. As a result, it may be difficult to have a clear and lasting impact of Fed's decision on USD this week.

Let's now take a look at the USD/JPY technical picture at the H4 time frame. The price is testing the lower channel line around the level of 113.00, just above the 200 periods moving average support. The bulls were not strong enough to convincingly break out above the 61% Fibo at the level of 113.24 and now the negative divergence between the price and momentum indicator is pushing the price lower ahead of FOMC decision.

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Daily analysis of major pairs for December 14, 2017

EUR/USD: The bearish signal on this pair is still valid. Price has made some bearish effort this week, now below the resistance line at 1.1750 and going towards the support lines at 1.1700. That is the target for this week, which should be reached ultimately.

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USD/CHF: The USD/CHF pair is consolidating in the context of an uptrend. While the resistance levels at 0.9950 and 1.0000 could be tested, the pair is expected to end up plummeting this week, because CHF would showcase an extraordinary level of stamina. Other currencies would also drop versus CHF.

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GBP/USD: There is a "sell" signal on the Cable. The EMA 11 has gone below the EMA 56 and the RSI period 14 has gone below the level 50. Price would is likely to continue going downwards, reaching the accumulation territories at 1.3300 and 1.3250.

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USD/JPY: This currency trading instrument is moving sideways in the context of an uptrend. There is a bullish bias on the market, and the supply levels at 113.50 are expected to be reached – even if there is going to be any major pullback at last. A rise in momentum is just around the corner.

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EUR/JPY: This cross has gone gradually southwards (so far this week). The RSI period 14 is below the level 50, and the EMA 11 is about to cross the EMA 56 to the downside. Once the demand zone at 1320.00 is breached to the downside (which would require a great volatility), a Bearish Confirmation Pattern would form in the market.

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Bitcoin analysis for December 13, 2017

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Bitcoin (BTC) has been trading sideways at the price of $16,960. During the first week of December, the second largest bank in the U.S., Bank of America (BOA), was awarded a cryptocurrency exchange patent. The BOA cryptocurrency trading platform's concept summary outlines three types of accounts where users and businesses can swap digital assets instantly. The technical picture looks bullish.

Trading recommendations:

According to the 30M time frame, I found a broken supply trendline, which is a sign that selling looks risky. I also found that momentum is bullish using the moving average oscillator. My advice is to watch for potential buying opportunities. The upward targets are set at the price of $17,535 and at the price of $17,890.

Support/Resistance

$17,240 – Intraday resistance (price action)

$15,768 – Intraday support

$17,535 – First obbjective point

$17,890 – Second objective point

With InstaForex you can earn on cryptocurrency's movements right now. Just open a deal in your MetaTrader4.

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for December 13, 2017

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Overview:

  • The price is still movinf around the spot of 0.6943 (daily poivot). The USD/CHF pair is trading in the bullish trend from the support levels of 0.6881 and 0.6830. Currently, the price is in a bullish channel. This is confirmed by the RSI indicator signaling that we are still in a bullish trending market. As the price is still above the moving average (100), immediate support is seen at 0.6881, which coincides with the first support (23.6% of Fibonacci). Consequently, the second support is set at the level of 0.6830. So, the market is likely to show signs of a bullish trend around the spot of 0.6830/0.6881. In other words, buy orders are recommended above the support of (0.6881) with the first target at the level of 0.6993. Furthermore, if the trend is able to breakout through the first resistance level of 0.6993. We should see the pair climbing towards the price of 0.7043 to test it. It would also be wise to consider where to place a stop loss; this should be set below the second support of 0.6780.
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Trading Plan for EUR/USD and US Dollar Index for December 13, 2017

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Technical outlook:

The EUR/USD pair is playing out according to suggested wave counts discussed earlier. Yesterday, as well it has made lows at 1.1715 levels before pulling back sharply. Today, it is quite possible that it could test yesterdays lows by a few points around 1.1700/10 levels before turning bullish again. Please note that we have presented the most probable wave counts here. The expected rally towards 1.1860 levels could be just a retracement so please do not go over board thinking of another high as of yet. As long as EUR/USD stays below 1.1950 levels, it is expected to remain under control of bears. We should be prepared to go long today, to take advantage of the counter trend rally towards 1.1860 levels.

Trading plan:

Please exit shorts taken earlier and turn long around 1.1700/10 risk at 1.1660 target 1.1860.

US Dollar Index chart setups:

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Technical outlook:

The US Dollar Index had hit the proposed resistance levels yesterday at 94.20 levels before retracing lower and we are sure you might have take profits there. Please note that it is quite possible 94.20 is a meaningful top in place already and that the index is now expected to drop lower in a corrective manner towards 93.30 levels before turning long again. We have presented the most probable wave count here which also states that the index should be poised to drop lower as wave 2 within the 3rd wave. It would be too early to conclude that the US Dollar Index has completed its bullish run and it is heading south until prices stay above 92.50 levels going forward. Aggressive traders should be looking to go short at these levels to take advantage of the counter trend opportunity.

Trading plan:

Please exit longs taken earlier for now. Remain short from here with risk above 94.65 with a target at 93.30 levels.

Fundamental outlook:

Please watch out for the FOMC rate decision to be out today at 02:00 PM EST.

Good luck!

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for December 13, 2017

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Overview:

  • The USD/CHF pair didn't make any significant movements yesterday. There are no changes in our technical outlook. The bias remains bullish in the nearest term testing 1.0037 or higher The USD/CHF pair continues to move upwards from the level of 0.9806. Last week, the pair rose from the level of 0.9806 to the top around the area of 0.9921 (pivot). Today, the first resistance level is seen at 0.9972 followed by 1.0037, while daily support 1 is seen at 0.9886. According to the previous events, the USD/CHF pair is still moving between the levels of 0.9886 and 1.0037; for that, we expect a range of 150 pips. If the USD/CHF pair fails to break through the support level of 0.9886, the market will rise further to 0.9972. This would suggest a bullish market because the RSI indicator is still in a positive area and does not show any trend-reversal signs. The pair is expected to climb higher towards at least 1.0037 with a view to testing the double top. Briefly, the major support is seen at the price of 0.9806. So, it will be very useful to buy above the spot of 0.9806 with the targets of 0.9921 and 1.0037. On the other hand, if a breakout takes place at the support level of 0.9800, then this scenario may become invalidated.
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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for December 13, 2017

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Monthly Outlook

In January 2015, the EUR/USD pair moved below the major demand levels near 1.2050-1.2100 (multiple previous bottoms set in July 2012 and June 2010). Hence, a long-term bearish target was projected toward 0.9450.

In March 2015, EUR/USD bears challenged the monthly demand level around 1.0500, which had been previously reached in August 1997.

In the longer term, the level of 0.9450 remains a projected target if any monthly candlestick achieves bearish closure below the depicted monthly demand level of 1.0500.

However, the EUR/USD pair has been trapped within the depicted consolidation range (1.0500-1.1450) until the current bullish breakout was executed above 1.1450.

The current bullish breakout above 1.1450 allowed a quick bullish advance towards 1.2100 where recent evidence of bearish rejection was expressed (Note the previous Monthly candlestick of September).

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Daily Outlook

In January 2017, the previous downtrend was reversed when the Inverted Head and Shoulders pattern was established around 1.0500. Since then, evident bullish momentum has been expressed on the chart.

As anticipated, the ongoing bullish momentum allowed the EUR/USD pair to pursue further bullish advance towards 1.1415-1.1520 (Previous Daily Supply-Zone).

The daily supply zone failed to pause the ongoing bullish momentum. Instead, evident bullish breakout was expressed towards the price level of 1.2100 where the depicted Head and Shoulders reversal pattern was expressed.

If the recent bearish breakout persists below 1.1700 (Neckline of the reversal pattern), a quick bearish decline should be expected towards the price zone of 1.1415-1.1520 (Initial targets for the depicted H&S pattern).

Bearish target for the depicted Head and Shoulders pattern extends towards 1.1350. However, to pursue towards the mentioned target level, significant bearish pressure is needed to be applied against the mentioned zone (1.1415-1.1520).

However, In November, recent price action around the price zone of 1.1520-1.1415 indicated evident bullish recovery. This hindered further bearish decline which allowed the current bullish pullback to occur towards the price level of 1.1900.

Trade Recommendations

The price levels around 1.1900-1.1950 were suggested for a valid short-term SELL entry. It's already running in profits.

S/L should be lowered to 1.1870 to secure some of the profits. Remaining T/P levels to be located at 1.1700 and 1.1590.

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GBP/USD analysis for December 13, 2017

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Recently, the GBP/USD pair has been trading sideways at the price of 1.3350. According to the 15M time – frame, I found successful rejection from the pivot resistance 1 at the price of 1.3365. I also found a simmetrical triangle in creation together with hidden bearish divergence on the stochastic oscillator, which is a sign that buying looks risky. My advice is to watch for potential selling opportunities. The downward targets are set at the price of 1.3303, 1.3287 and at the price of 1.3255.

Resistance levels:

R1: 1.3365

R2: 1.3410

R3: 1.3440

Support levels:

S1: 1.3287

S2: 1.3255

S3: 1.3210

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential selling opportunities.

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NZD/USD Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for December 13, 2017

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Daily Outlook

A recent bullish breakout above the downtrend line took place on May 22. Since then, the market has been bullish as depicted on the chart.

This resulted in a quick bullish advance towards next price zones around 0.7150-0.7230 (Key-Zone) and 0.7310-0.7380 which was temporarily breached to the upside.

Recent bearish pullback was executed towards the price zone of 0.7310-0.7380 (newly-established demand-zone) which failed to offer enough bullish support for the NZD/USD pair.

Re-consolidation below the price level of 0.7300 enhanced the bearish side of the market. This brought the NZD/USD pair again towards 0.7230-0.7150 (Key-Zone) which failed to pause the ongoing bearish momentum.

An atypical Head and Shoulders pattern was expressed on the depicted chart which initiated bearish reversal.

As expected, the price level of 0.7050 failed to offer enough bullish support for the NZD/USD pair. That's why, further bearish decline was expected towards 0.6800 (Reversal pattern bearish target).

Evident signs of bullish recovery was expressed around the recent low (0.6780). That's why, a bullish pullback is expected towards 0.7050.

Trade Recommendations:

An inverted Head and Shoulders pattern is being established on the chart indicating high probability of bullish reversal.

That's why, the price zone of 0.6800-0.6830 can be considered for a short-term BUY entry. S/L should be placed below 0.6770. T/P level remains projected towards 0.7050.

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The dollar stabilizes before the FOMC meeting

Producer prices continue to recover, which gives hope for an increase in consumer inflation before the FOMC meeting tonight. Moreover, this contributes to the strengthening of positive expectations. Prices in November rose by 0.4% and growth of 3.1% remained stable for three consecutive months on an annual basis. This has been the maximum growth rate in almost 5 years.

In any case, the positive dynamics significantly reduce the deflationary mood and allows the possibility for the FOMC forecast for inflation to be updated at least as good as the month of September.

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Markets are confident that today's rate will increase by a quarter point, which is already embedded in the quotes and is not capable of causing any significant reaction. Moreover, the markets see more than 60% chance of another increase in March 2018, and more than 30% in June based on the dynamics of CME futures. These expectations are more hawkish than a couple of weeks ago that indicate the strengthening of positive expectations.

Volatility can be caused two factors such as updated forecasts and rhetoric of the Fed Chairman Yellen at a press conference. As for the forecasts, the market will form the final position today when consumer inflation data for November will be published at 12:30 London time. The growth is projected to be 2.2% against 2.0% in October while there is no change in the root value at 1.8%. Any deviation from these expectations can cause some volatility since the expectations from the Fed's inflation forecasts tonight will also change urgently.

Until recently, the Fed was facing a difficult task in justifying rate hikes on a background of low inflation. This explains why it is not necessary to reduce the rate of normalization when the representatives of the Federal Reserve have repeatedly stated that low inflation is a temporary phenomenon due to the growth of the labor market, which will cause both the growth of people's incomes and the growth of inflation (the so-called "Phillips rule"). Hence it is clear that today's data on consumer inflation can cause a storm of emotions. If there are deviations from the forecasts in one direction or another and adjust the expectations following the meeting of the FOMC.

The forecast for the growth rate at the FOMC September meeting looks like growth rates will reach 2.1% in 2018 and 2.7% in 2019, after which stabilization comes in. This corresponds to three increases next year and it is important for the dollar. Otherwise, it will fall sharply immediately after publication.

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As for the labor market, there are also difficulties here. Unemployment decreased to 4.1%, and further reduction is unlikely. Emphasis should be placed not on quantitative but on quality indicators such as the reduction of jobs with part-time employment and low qualifications. It is in fact dedicated to the Tramp-initiated tax reform.

The effectiveness of the proposed tax reform plan remains open. Yesterday, the Finance Ministry published a document where its disclosed plans for changing GDP. In its perspective, reforms will increase the economy's growth by 0.7 percent per year in the next 10 years and additional tax revenues to the budget will amount to 1.8 trillion for the same period. This conclusion is subject to uncertainty on the part of the expert community. it is believed that the result will be directly opposite since large groups of the population will receive a decrease in the tax burden as a result of the program, especially those with medium and low incomes.

The main point of the reform, growth of incomes of the population, is being questioned. Without this, it is impossible to count either on GDP growth or on filling the budget. The Fed's position for assessing the entire complex factors in the current situation will be highly significant and almost certainly the press conference will follow Yellen's questions about the Fed's relationship to tax reform. This assessment is another risk factor today, as it can cause increased volatility.

In general, the current situation can be characterized as cautious optimism. If the market is not disappointed in the expectations, the dollar will strengthen its power in the whole spectrum of the market by the end of the day.

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USD/JPY analysis for December 13, 2017

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Recently, the USD/JPY has been trading sideways at the price of 113.35. According to the 30M time – frame, I found the broken bullish flag, which is a sign that selling looks risky. I also found a bullish momentum on the MACD oscillator, this is another sign of potential strength. My advice is to watch for buying opportunities if the price breaks the level of 113.45. The upward target is set at the price of 113.75.

Resistance levels:

R1: 113.35

R2: 113.17

R3: 112.98

Support levels:

S1: 113.74

S2: 113.93

S3: 114.12

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential buying opportunities.

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for December 13, 2017

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USD/JPY is expected to trade with a bullish bias above 113.15. The pair has located a key support at 113.30. Currently it has entered a consolidation phase initiated from a high of 113.75 marked yesterday (December 12). It is trading at levels below both the 20-period and 50-period moving averages, and the relative strength index has returned to the levels below the neutrality level of 50. Therefore, the consolidation phase may extend for a while.

However, as long as the key support at 113.15 is not breached, the intraday outlook is still bullish and the pair stands chances of revisiting 113.75 on the upside.

Alternatively, if the price moves in the opposite direction, a short position is recommended below 113.15 with a target of 112.80.

Chart Explanation: The black line shows the pivot point. The current price above the pivot point indicates a bullish position, while the price below the pivot point is a signal for a short position. The red lines show the support levels and the green line indicates the resistance level. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Strategy: BUY, Stop Loss: 113.15, Take Profit: 113.75

Resistance levels: 113.75, 114.00 and 114.50 Support Levels: 112.80, 112.55, 112.00

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Bitcoin analysis for 13/12/2017

Reuters informs that the French government has issued an official statement regarding trading in unlisted securities using Blockchain technology. According to this article, the government has adopted new rules that will enable banks and fintech companies to create Blockchain platforms for unlisted securities. The change will allow trading in assets without intermediaries and theoretically in real time. The country's finance minister, Bruno Le Maire, said the new rules would be a boon for Paris as a financial center. Then he added:"The application of this new technology will enable fintech companies and other financial entities to develop new ways of trading in securities that are faster, cheaper, more transparent and safer." This move is part of a national policy to promote Paris as the center of financial innovation.

Let's now take a look at the Bitcoin technical picture at the H4 time frame. Another marginal higher high was made at the level of $17,390 as expected, so it was labeled as a temporary top for the wave (3).Nevertheless, the overall structure is still unfinished, as there is still corrective wave (4) and impulsive wave (5) missing. The technical support at the level of $15,952 is important from the intraday perspective, but the key mid-term support remains at the level of $12,627. Please notice the clear bearish divergence between the price and momentum oscillator, which supports a temporary pull-back scenario in wave (4) to come soon.

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Trading plan for 13/12/2017

Hours before the FOMC decision, the US Dollar came under pressure as a result of the US Senate's complementary election, which ended with the Democrat candidate's victory. The USD loses in reaction to the election result. AUD and NZD lead the way up to 0.7570 and 0.6940, respectively. EUR / USD rebounded to 1.1750 and USD / JPY pre-staged to 1113,10, but managed to rebound to 113.40.The stock market draws a mixed picture. Nikkei2225 lost 0.5% today under pressure of USD / JPY correction. But in China, the indexes are growing - Shanghai Composite gains 0.7%, and Hang Seng grows by 1.4%.

On Wednesday 13th of December, the event calendar is busy with important news releases. The event of the day is FOMC interest rate decision and statement, but there are other data waiting for a release: US CPI, US Crude Oil Inventories, UK Claimant Count Change, German Final Consumer Price Index and Industrial Production and Employment Change.

EUR/USD analysis for 13/12/2017:

The FOMC Interest Rate Decision, Monetary Policy Statement and Economic Projections are all scheduled at 07:00 pm GMT. The FOMC Press Conference is scheduled at 07:30 pm GMT. The market participants expect an interest rate hike from 1.25% to 1.50%. However, the market will be more interested in the prospects for monetary policy for the future. Economists expect the Fed will remain optimistic with hopes for inflation acceleration and a favorable impact of fiscal policy, maintaining the forecast of three hikes in 2018. However, this may not be enough to overcome investors' skepticism and give a strong boost to the USD.

Let's now take a look at the EUR/USD technical picture at the H4 time frame. The key support zone is still the 61% Fibo support at 1.1706 and technical support at 1.1725. Any violation of this level would lead to a test of the next technical support at the level of 1.1622. On the other hand, the key technical resistance remains at the level of 1.1807. Please notice a growing bearish divergence between the price and the momentum indicator.

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Market Snapshot: Gold breaks even lower

The price of Gold has broken below the level of $1,243 and made a new local low just above the technical support at the level of $1,235. The price is clearly diverging from the diminishing momentum and the market conditions are oversold, so the bounce towards the level of $1,251 is expected next.

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Market Snapshot: DXY locked in consolidation zone

The price of US Dollar Index (DXY) remains locked in a consolidation zone between the levels of 93.89 - 94.26 as it awaits the Fed interest rate decision. The price is diverging from the momentum indicator, so any breakout to the downside will result in a possible test of the technical support at the level of 93.51 or below.

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Trading plan 12/13/2017

Trading plan 12/13/2017

The general picture: Markets are waiting for the Fed and the ECB.

Today at 22.00 - the decision of the Fed about interest rate will increase by + 0.25% with a probability of 99%.

Tomorrow at 15.45 - the decision of the ECB could have surprises. In particular, the increase in the deposit rate for banks from the current level minus 0.4 percent.

The Euro is ready for a strong move. It is possible to play for a breakdown or up to level 1.1815 or down to level 1.1712.

Important! At 1:30 PM London time, an inflation report will be published in the US. The movement can start at 1:30 PM London time.

GBP/USD: We buy from the rollback 1.3320 with the target of 1.3550.

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* The presented market analysis is informative and does not constitute a guide to the transaction

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Technical analysis of USDX for December 13, 2017

The Dollar index is making new highs. Market participants discount a rate hike and more positive news regarding the Dollar before tonight's FOMC. However traders must be cautious as price is rising in an upward sloping wedge pattern.

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Black lines - upward sloping wedge pattern

Red rectangle - support

Black line - target if support fails.

The Dollar index is in a bullish trend. Price is making higher highs and higher lows. Support is at 93.70-93.80. If this level is broken, I expect price to fall towards the cloud support and the 93.30 level.

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Price has reached the weekly kijun-sen (yellow line indicator). This is very important resistance. Price has started the bounce off the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at 92.50 which was our target. We can see a pull back from current levels but overall as long as we are above 93-92.50 I expect price to move towards 96-97.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of gold for December 13, 2017

Gold price remains in a bearish trend but yesterday we observed the bullish divergence in the RSI together with a candlestick reversal pattern. Price has the potential to rise to $1,260 today.

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Red lines - bearish channel

Black lines - bullish divergence

Gold price has broken out of the bearish channel and is now back testing it. The RSI is warning bears that the downside momentum has weakened. The 4-hour candle pattern of a bullish hammer is usually a trustworthy reversal pattern. Resistance is at $1,247. Breaking above it will confirm the reversal pattern and push price towards cloud resistance at $1,255-60.

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On a daily basis Gold price has also made a bullish hammer. With FOMC tonight we expect Gold price to be volatile. If price is near $1,260 before the FOMC, I would prefer to be neutral as we might see another leg down towards $1,220-$1,200.

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Burning Forecast 13/12/2017

Burning Forecast 13/12/2017

EURUSD: Play to break the boundaries of the range.

Today at 18.00 London time, an important decision by the US Federal Reserve will be announced: they will raise the rate on the dollar +0.25% to 1.375% - and, more importantly, will report on plans for further rate hikes.

In addition, the Fed will present a new adjusted forecast for the economy for three years (GDP growth, employment, interest rates) - this forecast is updated every six months. Afterwards, at 18.30 London time, Fed Chairman Yellen will deliver a speech.

The head of the Federal Reserve will be replaced in February 2018 - the new head of the Fed will likely pursue a more aggressive monetary policy.

In general, the situation is in favor of the US dollar.

We have a narrow range for the EURUSD within the limits of 1.1712 - 1.1815.

Buy for the breakthrough of 1.1815 upwards, stop-loss at 1.1770, with a target of 1.1940.

Or:

Sell for the breakthrough of 1.1712 downwards, stop-loss at 1.1757, with a target of 1.1612.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for December 13, 2017

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Wave summary:

EUR/NZD moved lower to 1.6922 and even broke through this support too. It could be a case of undershooting its target. If this is the case, then a break back above minor resistance at 1.6969 and more importantly a break above resistance at 1.7057 should be seen soon.

A failure to break back above minor resistance at 1.6969 will keep the downside pressure intact for a possible move lower to 1.6810.

R3: 1.7113

R2: 1.7057

R1: 1.6969

Pivot: 1.6942

S1: 1.6885

S2: 1.6810

S3: 1.6755

Trading recommendation:

We are short EUR from 1.7200. We will move our stop lower to 1.6975.

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BTC/USD reacting off our selling entry perfectly, remain bearish

Bitcoin has reached our selling area and is reacting off it nicely. We remain bearish looking to sell below 17459 resistance (Fibonacci extension, bearish price action, bearish divergence) for a drop towards at least 14739 support (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap support).

Stochastic (34,5,3) is seeing major resistance below 98% and also displays bearish divergence vs price, signaling that a reversal is impending.

Reason for the trading strategy (fundamentally):

Bitcoin January futures (which are contracts that let investors buy or sell something at a specific price in the future) price are about $17,800 which is rather close to where we forecast major resistance. This is in line with the immediate resistance we're seeing on the technical side so it would be safe to start looking to short Bitcoin for a correction.

Sell below 17459. Stop loss is at 18770. Take profit is at 14739.

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EUR/USD profit target reached once again, prepare to buy

The price has dropped strongly towards our profit target as expected. We prepare to buy above major support at 1.1712 (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal swing low support) for a bounce up to at least 1.1811 resistance (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap resistance).

Stochastic (34,3,1) is approaching major support at 1.6% where a corresponding bounce is expected.

Buy above 1.1712. Stop loss is at 1.1633. Take profit is at 1.1811.

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Fundamental Analysis of USD/CAD for December 13, 2017

USD/CAD has been quite corrective this week having no directional pressure while residing in a bullish trend inside a range of 1.2660 to 1.2900 area. Today is going to be very interesting and volatile for USD as the most anticipated Federal Funds Rate Hike report is going to be published which is expected to show an increase to 1.50% from the previous value of 1.25%. This increase in the interest rate value is expected to well contribute to the upcoming growth of USD against CAD in the coming days. Along with the Interest Rate report on the USD side, CPI report is going to be published which is expected to increase to 0.4% from the previous value of 0.1%, Core CPI report is expected to show an unchanged value of 0.2%, Crude Oil Inventories is expected to show less deficit at -3.6M from the previous figure of -5.6M and FOMC Press Conference is going to be held just after the Rate Hike decision which is expected to be quite hawkish in nature to support the gains of USD in the coming days. This week, there was nothing quite important going on the CAD side but on Thursday CAD NHPI report is going to be published which is expected to be unchanged at 0.2%, Bank of Canada Governor Poloz is going to speak about the upcoming policies to be applied which are expected to be quite neutral in nature showing no promise of further growth of CAD in the short-term and on Friday Manufacturing Sales report is going to be published which is expected to increase to 0.9% from the previous value of 0.5%. As of the current scenario, USD is expected to gain good momentum over CAD as the Rate Hike is quite imminent and better economic report forecasts which are expected to lead to further bullish pressure in the pair. This week CAD does not have much to offer in the economic reports to hold the gains of USD which will result in the good dominance of USD over CAD in the coming days.

Now let us look at the technical view, the price is currently residing at the edge of resistance area 1.2900 which is expected to break above with a target towards 1.3200 in the coming days. The price has been quite impulsive with the bullish gains which did help the price to head over the dynamic level of 20 EMA indicating a bullish pre-breakout structure. As the price remains above the range support of 1.2660 the bullish bias is expected to continue further.

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Fundamental Analysis of EUR/JPY for December 13, 2017

EUR/JPY is still residing inside the corrective range between 131.40 to 134.40 area where recently the price has been quite bullish from the middle of the range bouncing off the dynamic level. The correction in the pair does indicate the indecision in the market with the directional bias as of recent mixed economic reports of both EUR and JPY. Today JPY Core Machinery Orders report was published with an increase to 5.0% from the previous negative value of -8.1% which was expected to be at 3.1%. The positive economic report did help the currency to gain some momentum over EUR but still, no impulsive pressure is observed on the bearish side leading to more consolidation in the price action. On the EUR side, today German Final CPI report is going to be published which is expected to be unchanged at 0.3%, German WPI is expected to increase to 0.2% from the previous value of 0.0%, Italian Industrial Production report is expected to increase to 0.7% from the previous negative value of -1.3%, Employment Change is expected to be unchanged at 0.4% and Industrial Production is expected to increase to 0.0% from the previous negative value of -0.6%. As of the current scenario, EUR is expected to have some better economic reports today which might lead to further gain on the EUR side over JPY but until any high impact economic reports of EUR and JPY comes in to support the upcoming directional pressure, the pair is expected to be indecisive for the time being.

Now let us look at the technical view, the price is currently residing above the dynamic level of 20 EMA having a daily rejection off the level. The price is currently residing in the middle of the range and above 20 EMA which does signal the bullish move is quite imminent which will push the price towards 134.40 area in the coming days. On the other hand, as the price residing in a corrective range, if the price breaks below the dynamic level of 20 EMA with a daily close we might see the price heading down towards 131.40 support area and later towards 128.00 support area in the coming days.

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Daily analysis of USDX for December 13, 2017

The index keeps its bullish structure untouched below the resistance level of 94.00. That level should give up in order to allow more gains toward the 94.37 level. To the downside, the 200 SMA at H1 chart provides a dynamic support and it should help to give a boost to USDX when it's being tested. MACD indicator remains in favor of the bears.

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H1 chart's resistance levels: 94.00 / 94.37

H1 chart's support levels: 93.40 / 92.70

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place buy (sell) orders only if the USD Index breaks with a bullish candlestick; the resistance level is at 94.00, take profit is at 94.37 and stop loss is at 93.73.

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Daily analysis of GBP/USD for December 13, 2017

The pair stayed in a sideways range, supported by the 1.3303 level across the board. The 200 SMA at H1 chart still offers a dynamic resistance and it should help to push lower to GBP/USD in order to ride a bearish trend towards the 1.3228 level. However, as long as it remains above 1.3228, our bullish outlook will be untouched.

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H1 chart's resistance levels: 1.3417 / 1.3541

H1 chart's support levels: 1.3303 / 1.3228

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, buy (long) orders only if the GBP/USD pair breaks a bullish candlestick; the resistance level is at 1.3417, take profit is at 1.3541 and stop loss is at 1.3298.

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BITCOIN Analysis for December 12, 2017

Bitcoin is currently residing above $17,000 price area which has been quite corrective along the way. Due to recent CBOE introduction of Bitcoin Futures the market has been quite consolidating. The reason behind this consolidation is currently speculated as the effect of Future trading where a trader can trade on either way to gain pips. Despite the correction, Bitcoin has been quite stable with the gains and it is expected that the price will move towards $18,000 sooner. As of the current scenario, the price has been reacting quite well with the dynamic level of 20 EMA since the recent bullish move from the bounce of $12,500 price area. The price is currently expected to retrace towards the dynamic level of 20 EMA, Tenkan and Kijun line before it surges higher towards the $18,000 price area in the coming days. As the price remains above $16,000 price area the impulsive bullish bias is expected to continue but it is expected to be quite slow and corrective in nature.

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