Burning forecast for GBP/USD on 08/07/2019 and trading recommendation

The European Commission sees no reason for further bilateral negotiations with Britain over a protracted withdrawal agreement, and therefore the risk of a hard scenario is becoming more realistic. In turn, Prime Minister Boris Johnson is ready to go all the way, saying that he will not resign, even if a vote of no confidence is announced to him.

Today, in terms of the economic calendar, we do not have any worthwhile news, and they are not needed, since the English currency has recently reacted exclusively to Brexit noise.

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Since the beginning of the month, the GBP/USD pair has moved to the accumulation stage, having a relatively small amplitude of oscillation, focusing on the level of 1.2150, which plays the role of a mirror level. Considering the trading chart in general terms, we see that the pivot remains in the form of a value of 1.2078 and the current stagnation-pullback, this is some kind of calm before the storm, since the main trend was both downward and remains.

It is likely to assume that the turbulence within 1.2100-1.2200 (+/- 20p) will continue, where the accumulation process will lead to a sharp surge as soon as significant information background appears. Thus, working on the breakdown of the cluster, which can occur at any time, is the best tactic in this period of time.

From the point of view of a comprehensive indicator analysis, we see that the indicators on the minute and intraday periods jump fluctuate, due to the current ambiguous turbulence, in the form of accumulation, but it should be given credit that the general interest is still prone to decline. Looking at the deeper time intervals, such as the daily chart, we see a steady downward interest.

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Control zones for Bitcoin on 06/08/19

Yesterday, the pair tested the monthly control zone of August. This led to a sharp increase in supply and the formation of a correctional model. While the price is above the level of balance, it indicates the strength of the upward movement. The probability of updating the monthly maximum remains.

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To continue the growth, it is enough to keep the price above the balance. Therefore, purchases opened at the beginning of the current month or at the end of the past can be kept and transferred to breakeven.

For the formation of a corrective or reversal downward model, it is required that the balance be higher than the current price. This can happen through finding prices in flat. A session absorption pattern has already been formed and closing trades below yesterday's low will open the way for a fall to $10,000 per bitcoin.

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GBP/USD: plan for the European session on August 7. The pound slightly rose, but the situation with Brexit continues to scare

To open long positions on GBP/USD you need:

Yesterday's news about strengthening the adversary's camp, Prime Minister Boris Johnson's intentions for Brexit led to a slight increase in the British pound in the morning, but this did not lead to more serious support from major players. New support at 1.2140, which was formed yesterday, still holds GBP/USD and retains a chance to continue the upward correction. The formation of a false breakdown in the morning at this level will be a direct signal to open long positions in the pound, however, the main task is to break through and consolidate above the resistance of 1.2203. Only in this scenario can we expect a larger upward correction to the area of a high of 1.2273, where I recommend taking profits. If bulls miss the support area of 1.2140, then in this case it is best to buy from lows of this year in the region of 1.2083.

To open short positions on GBP/USD you need:

Bears are trying by all means to keep the pair below the resistance of 1.2203, and the formation of a false breakdown there in the morning will be a direct signal to open short positions. We see that the market's reaction to yesterday's good Brexit news was insignificant, therefore, any negative statements by British Prime Minister Boris Johnson could lead to another major downward trend in the low of the year at 1.2083, and then to update bigger support in the area of 1.2040 and 1.1985. where I recommend taking profits. If the bulls manage to move above the resistance of 1.2203 in the first half of the day, then in this scenario it is best to look for new short positions for a rebound from a resistance of 1.2273.

Signals of indicators:

Moving averages

Trade in the region of 30 and 50 moving averages, indicating short-term market uncertainty.

Bollinger bands

Volatility is very low, which does not provide signals on entering the market.

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Description of indicators

  • MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow
  • MA (moving average) 30 days - green
  • MACD: Fast EMA 12, Slow EMA 26, SMA 9
  • Bollinger Bands 20
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Control zones for USD/JPY pair on 08/07/19

Today's trading plan should take into account the fact that the pair is trading below a monthly shortfall. This completely cancels sales from current levels since the probability of a return to the control zone has increased to 90%. Purchases are best viewed below current levels. The pattern of "false breakdown" on the nearest extremes is suitable for this.

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The first goal of growth can be considered at a weekly control zone at 107.32-107.16. Reaching this area will allow you to get the necessary risk-to-profit ratio for purchases from current levels.

An alternative model will be developed if the pair continues to fall to a weekly low. At this minimum, there is a significant weekly shortfall of 105.47-105.32, a test of which can lead to a sharp increase in demand. The basis for trading is going beyond the monthly short-circuit, so any models in the direction of weakening the Japanese yen will be advantageous at a distance.

An alternative model will be developed if the pair continues to fall to a weekly low. At this minimum, there is a significant weekly control zone of 105.47-105.32 and a test of which can lead to a sharp increase in demand.

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Daily CZ - daily control zone. The area formed by important data from the futures market, which changes several times a year.

Weekly CZ - weekly control zone. The area formed by marks from the important futures market, which changes several times a year.

Monthly CZ - monthly control zone. The area is a reflection of the average volatility over the past year.

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GOLD approaching $1500 psychological price area, What next? August 7, 2019

Gold has caught bullish momentum successfully breaking above $1440 area with a daily close. The price has formed non-volatile bullish trend which is expected to continue pushing higher towards $1500.

Gold's value has surged broadly this year as concerns over trade wars and a global economic slowdown rippled through financial markets. Those fears pushed investors toward assets they think could weather market shocks and forced central banks to freeze or cut interest rates, lowering bond yields and making non-yielding gold more attractive. Prices in benchmark US dollars have rallied 15% since May to 6-year peaks above $1,440 an ounce and are at record highs in currencies including the Canadian and Australian dollars and India's rupee. According to certain speculation, Institutional investors want gold to shield them from global economic devaluation and shocks.

China's central bank says it won't let the yuan fall too sharply, but gold longs aren't taking chances, pushing the yellow metal to new six-year highs as safe-havens remained in play as a hedge to the devaluation and heightened U.S.-China trade war. US President Donald Trump's decision to impose a 10% tariff on $300 billion of Chinese imports from September 1st, 2019 suggests that both sides in the trade conflict are taking a harder line, reducing the odds of a resolution in the near term. As of the recent US rate cut effect, for over $1 trillion of bonds now yielding negative interest rates, any further move downwards merely increases gold's relative attractiveness.

TECHNICAL OVERVIEW:

The price is residing above $1475. The price did not encounter any deeper pullback along the way or retest $1440. However, if it reaches $1500, it may lead to bearish intervention as MACD is seen showing lower histograms as the price progresses higher. Certain Bearish Divergence might lead to correction in the market but before $1500 is touched. As the price reaches $1500, it would be interesting to see whether the price breaks above it or rejects for a strong counter momentum.

TECHNICAL LEVELS:

SUPPORT- 1350, 1400, 1440

RESISTANCE- 1480, 1500, 1550, 1600

BIAS- Bullish

MOMENTUM- Non-Volatile

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EUR/USD: plan for the European session on August 7. Euro buyers remain in the game after a slight correction to the support

To open long positions on EURUSD you need:

Buyers of the European currency managed to keep the market on their side after yesterday's downward correction to a major support area of 1.1171, however, another series of statements by Federal Reserve representatives on the need to further study the interest rate situation in the United States has returned demand for EUR/USD. At the moment, the buyers' priority is to break through and consolidate above a resistance of 1.1217, from which a downward movement on a false breakdown had occurred yesterday. This will allow us to continue the upward trend, which will lead to renewal of highs in areas of 1.1263 and 1.1289, where I recommend taking profits. If pressure on the euro returns once again, after weak data on industrial production in Germany, one can consider new long positions from the same low of 1.1171, on a false breakdown, or immediately buy the euro on a rebound from the larger support of 1.1143, where a new lower limit of the upward channel will be formed.

To open short positions on EURUSD you need:

At the moment, a good signal to open short positions will be the formation of a false breakdown in the resistance zone of 1.1217, which can be formed after a weak report on industrial production in Germany. This will return a downward impulse to the pair, which will lead to updating a larger support level 1.1171, a breakdown of which will strengthen the bearish momentum and allow an update of of 1.1143, where I recommend taking profit. If bulls break above the resistance of 1.1217 in the morning, then in this case it is best to look for short positions by rebounding from a new high of 1.1263, or slightly higher - from a resistance of 1.1289.

Signals of indicators:

Moving averages

Trading is conducted above 30 and 50 moving average, which indicates an upward correction in the pair.

Bollinger bands

In case the euro decreases, the lower border of the indicator in the area of 1.1175 will provide support. A break of the upper boundary in the area of 1.1220 will strengthen the demand for the euro.

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Description of indicators

  • MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow
  • MA (moving average) 30 days - green
  • MACD: Fast EMA 12, Slow EMA 26, SMA 9
  • Bollinger Bands 20
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Technical analysis of ETH/USD for 07/08/2019:

Crypto Industry News:

The digital currency proposed by Walmart - the American giant of supermarket chains - should not hit such a big resistance in regulatory matters as Libra, the virtual currency proposed by Facebook.

Walmart's cryptocurrency may be attractive to democratic legislators who want to find an alternative financial infrastructure for people who do not regularly use banks.

Libra and Walmart's cryptographic offer differ in scale: Facebook has global intentions that Walmart does not seem to share.

Walmart's proposal is unlikely to receive Congressional consent, as Walmart's currency can be seen as a threat to small banks and credit unions.

As for the details of Walmart's proposed currency, it can be in the form of a card with a stored value associated with the US dollar, just like a rechargeable gift card.

Walmart does not intend to implement its cryptocurrency in the near future. A spokesman for Walmart said he did not plan to immediately use the newly filed patent application entitled "Digital currency system and method via Blockchain", which was published on August 1. As indicated in the patent, Walmart appears to apply for standard stablecoin.

Technical Market Overview:

The ETH/USD pair has made a new local high at the level of $238.58 during the failed breakout above the 50% of the Fibonacci retracement of the last wave down. Nevertheless, the price reversed back down again and hit the technical support at the level of $221.50 before a local pull-back was made. Currently, the market is consolidating the recent gains in a narrow price range, but the momentum is clearly decreasing, so any breakout below the green zone will be considered bearish. Please notice, that the corrective cycle in wave 2 of the higher degree might have been completed already. The nearest technical support is seen at the level of $216.67.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - $260.89

WR2 - $241.83

WR1 - $232.61

Weekly Pivot - $214.73

WS1 - $206.31

WS2 - $187.76

WS3 - $178.82

Trading Recommendations:

The best strategy in the current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is still up. All the shorter timeframe moves are being treated as a correction inside of the uptrend. The current cycle is wave 2 of the higher degree and it might have been completed, so the uptrend should resume sooner or later. We are waiting for a breakout above the level of $235.42 to confirm the bullish momentum.

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GBPUSD to bounce back to 1.25 again. August 7, 2019

The GBP/USD pair is under the bearish pressure after breaking below 1.25 area with a daily close. As the US economy struggles with the rate cut uncertainty and weak US jobs data, the pound sterling may regain grounds against the greenback.

Britain's political challenges may impact the upcoming economic momentum as UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson recently stated that he would take Britain out of the European Union on Oct. 31 with or without an exit deal. His opponents say they will try to stop a no-deal exit even if that means forcing an early election. Moreover, Prime Minister Boris Johnson announced a 1.8 billion-pound cash injection for Britain's public health system while seeking to honor his Brexit pledges as he pushes through the country's departure from the European Union. He also committed to putting money into policing, education and regional infrastructure projects, a spending spree that opposition lawmakers describe as evidence the government is on an election footing for later this year. Additionally, President Donald Trump has promised a deal between the US and the UK would be concluded quickly once the latter leaves the European Union which is being questioned by the lawmakers already.

The UK GDP report is to be published on Friday. The figure is expected to decrease to 0.1% from the previous value of 0.3%. The Prelim GDP is likely to drop to 0.0% from the previous value of 0.5%. Manufacturing Production may slide to -0.1% from the previous value of 1.4%.

On the other hand, President Trump's trade advisor called on the US Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by further three-quarters of a point to full point by end of the year to bring US rates into line to with rates elsewhere which might lead the rate to another 75 to 100 points lower. Federal official Bullard recently stated that not much of rate cuts are going to happen soon and pressurizing the Fed for further rate cut will not be taken lightly. According to Bullard, the Fed's shift since the first of the year, from projecting continued rate hikes to cutting rates at its meeting last week, had made monetary policy "considerably" looser and had adequately offset the uncertainty caused by the US trade spat with China, as well as related global developments. Global growth is slowing, the US economy has cooled from its breakneck pace of 2018, and inflation is low. Most crucially, however, the president's erratic trade war is creating enormous uncertainty. In this type of environment, the prudent thing to do is to cut rates even before the first signs of recession.

This week US PPI report is going to be published along with Core PPI and Building Permits which is expected to play a vital role in the upcoming price actions, but the sentiment is still quite dovish.

As of the current scenario, both currencies in the pair is struggling with challenges as US Fed rate cut issue and GBP's political challenges alongside weak economy ahead of Brexit in the coming months may lead to certain volatility.

TECHNICAL OVERVIEW:

The pair is trading in a bullish channel. It may sink to 1.2350. Though the price remains above 1.21. As the price is below 1.2500 area with a daily close, the bearish bias is expected to continue.

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Technical analysis of BTC/USD for 07/08/2019:

Crypto Industry News:

Nearly $ 2 billion, so much according to the United Nations (UN) North Korea stole by hacking banks and cryptocurrency exchanges.

In a confidential report obtained by the mainstream media, the Sanctions Committee of the United Nations Security Council stated that hackers constitute a significant part of government funds:

"Cybercriminals from the Democratic People's Republic of Korea, many operating under the direction of the General Recognition Bureau, raise money for weapons of mass destruction (WMD) programs, and total revenues from this account are estimated at two billion dollars," reads a UN report

North Korea is very often one of the first suspects in the case of hacker attacks on cryptocurrency exchanges, especially those located in nearby Asian countries. It is due to the so-called Lazarus Group, which brings together the best specialists from North Korean universities.

According to North Korean deserter Kim Heung-Kwang, a former computer science professor at the Hamheung University of Computer Technology, there are at least 7,000 hackers (from the Lazarus group) in North Korea, overseen by the national intelligence agency Reconnaissance General Bureau. They specialize in cybercrime, but they can also mine cryptocurrencies.

Technical Market Overview:

The BTC/USD pair has made a new high at the level of $12,269 and then the Bearish Engulfing candlestick pattern was made, which made the price to reverse towards the level of $11,068. This technical support level has almost been hit, but the price has bounced again. From the Elliott wave point of view, it looks like the wave 1 might have been completed already and now the market is unfolding corrective wave 2.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - $13,750

WR2 - $12,333

WR1 - $11,817

Weekly Pivot - $10,382

WS1 - $9,882

WS2 - $8,441

WS3 - $7,9485

Trading Recommendations:

The best strategy in the current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is still up. All the shorter timeframe moves are being treated as a correction inside of the uptrend. The larger degree WXY correction might have been completed and the market might be ready for another impulsive wave up.

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Elliott wave analysis of GBP/JPY for August 7 - 2019

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GBP/JPY is still hovering below short-term important resistance at 130.23. As long as this minor resistance is able to cap the upside GBP/JPY still could see a final dip to just below 128.09 closer to our ideal target at 127.93 before turning higher again.

A direct break above minor resistance at 130.23 will be the first strong indication that GBP/JPY has bottomed and a new impulsive rally could be developing. To confirm a long-term low is in place a break above resistance at 131.62 and more importantly a break above resistance at 132.70 is needed.

R3: 131.62

R2: 130.73

R1: 130.23

Pivot: 129.60

S1: 128.87

S2: 128.49

S3: 128.09

Trading recommendation:

We are looking for a buying opportunity at 128.05 or upon a break above 130.23

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for August 7 - 2019

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The rally of the 117.65 low is quite impulsive indicating more upside pressure after a corrective decline towards 118.40. The next rally of the 118.40 corrective low is likely to push EUR/JPY above resistance at 120.67 and closer to 122.02 before the next consolidation. This will also mean a break above important resistance at 121.38 that will confirm a long-time low being in place.

In the short-term, a dip to 118.40 should be expected as long as minor resistance at 119.36 is able to cap the upside. From 118.40 or upon a direct break above 119.36 a rally to and above 120.67 look quite likely.

R3: 120.70

R2: 120.33

R1: 119.88

Pivot: 119.36

S1: 118.71

S2: 118.40

S3: 118.03

Trading recommendation:

We are long EUR from 118.92 with our stop placed at 118.30.

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Technical analysis of GBP/USD for 07/08/2019:

Technical Market Overview:

The GBP/USD market is continuing the horizontal consolidation in a narrow range as it still does not have enough upward momentum to break through the lower trendline boundary located around the level of 1.2270. The lower boundary of the support zone located at the level of 1.2077 is the most important support for the short-term outlook in this pair. The momentum indicator remains neutral, which, despite oversold market conditions, indicates a further possible spike towards the level of 1.1983. The trend is still down and there are no signs of a trend reversal yet.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.2595

WR2 - 1.2485

WR1 - 1.2298

Weekly Pivot - 1.2184

WS1 - 1.1983

WS2 - 1.1676

WS3 - 1.0876

Trading Recommendations:

The best strategy for the current market conditions is to follow the larger timeframe trend. The larger time frame trend is still down and there are no signs of any trend reversal. The key long-term technical support at the level of 1.2420 has been violated and the next target for bears is seen at the level of 1.2100 and 1.1983. All the corrections are just the local correction inside of a downtrend.

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for 07/08/2019:

Technical Market Overview:

The EUR/USD pair has made a Bearish Engulfing candlestick pattern at the end of the yesterday short-squeeze. The target level at 1.1280 has not been hit, but the top was made at the level of 1.1254, so pretty close. After the top was made, the price has tested the technical support area located between the levels of 1.1206 - 1.1181 and bounced slightly. This move up is still a correction withing the larget downtrend, because the larger timeframe trend remains down and there are no signs of any trend reversal yet. The market conditions are now overbought and despite the positive momentum, the correction might start any time soon.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.1304

WR2 - 1.1233

WR1 - 1.1170

Weekly Pivot - 1.1096

WS1 - 1.1037

WS2 - 1.0957

WS3 - 1.0876

Trading Recommendations:

The best strategy for the current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is still down. The Ending Diagonal pattern has not been finished yet and the bears are in full control of the market. The longer-term target is seen at the level of 1.0814, from where the traders can expect a larger rebound.

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Technical analysis: Important Intraday Levels For EUR/USD, August 07, 2019

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When the European market opens, some economic data will be released such as French Trade Balance and German Industrial Production m/m. The US will also publish the economic data such as Consumer Credit m/m, 10-y Bond Auction, and Crude Oil Inventories, so amid the reports, the EUR/USD pair will move with low to medium volatility during this day. TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVELS: Breakout BUY Level: 1.1259. Strong Resistance: 1.1253. Original Resistance: 1.1242. Inner Sell Area: 1.1231. Target Inner Area: 1.1205. Inner Buy Area: 1.1179. Original Support: 1.1168. Strong Support: 1.1157. Breakout SELL Level: 1.1151. (Disclaimer)The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis: Important Intraday Levels for USD/JPY, August 07, 2019

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In Asia, Japan will release the BOJ Summary of Opinions and the US will publish some ecconomic data such as Consumer Credit m/m, 10-y Bond Auction, and Crude Oil Inventories. So there is a probability the USD/JPY pair will move with low to medium volatility during this day. TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVELS: Resistance.3 : 106.80. Resistance. 2: 106.59. Resistance. 1: 106.38. Support. 1: 106.12. Support. 2: 105.91. Support. 3: 105.70. (Disclaimer)The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Forecast for EUR/USD on August 7, 2019

EUR/USD

Yesterday on Tuesday, despite a high-range day of 80 points, the euro's situation returned to its original position at the end of the day. On top of the limiter was the MACD line on a daily scale, below the record support of the first days of May. The price has not consolidated itself below the enclosed line of the price channel of 1.1195, but today's general situation has increased pressure on the euro. The signal line of the Marlin oscillator slightly went into the growth zone, but the day has just begun, and in the black candle's case, this line will already be in the territory of negative numbers.

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On the four-hour chart, the price is above the indicator lines of balance and MACD, the Marlin oscillator is weakening before our eyes. Formally, the situation is neutral, in order to develop the decline, which is our main scenario, the price needs to gain a foothold under the price channel line on the daily chart, below 1.1195, the immediate goal will be the Fibonacci level of 110.0% at the price of 1.1155. Next, we are waiting for development towards targets of 1.1074 - to the Fibonacci level of 123.6%.

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To develop growth, the price's first task will be to consolidate above yesterday's high of 1.1250, then the goal will be the range of 1.1307/24 - the accumulation of extremes from October 2018 to July 2019

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Forecast for GBP/USD on August 7, 2019

GBP/USD

The British pound continues to consolidate in the range of July 30. On the daily chart, the Marlin oscillator has already been significantly discharged by exiting the oversold zone, which indirectly creates the condition for a downward movement of both the price and itself. Economic data for the UK will be released on Friday, forecasts for them are weak; Q2 GDP is expected to grow at zero, industrial production in June may show a 0.2% reduction, construction volume may show -0.4%, and trade surplus may worsen from -11.52 billion pounds to -11.80 billion

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On the four-hour chart, the MACD line acts as a growth limiter, the role of which is to indicate the trend's direction by analogy with the moving average. The signal line of the Marlin Oscillator is moving down. Falling sentiment towards targets of 1.2032/55 and further to 1.1986 is maintained.

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Forecast for USD / JPY pair on August 7, 2019

USD / JPY pair

The situation on the yen remains difficult. Thanks to yesterday's growth of the American stock market at S&P 500 by 1.30%, the pair was able to close the day with an increase of 52 points. On the daily chart, the price line was the balance line. Today, the Asian stock market is still falling in the Asian session, except for the Australian S&P/ASX200 index, adding 0.55%. Meanwhile, the Japanese Nikkei225 is now the leader of the fall with 0.83%. The yen "hid in a corner" almost literally as it is held in a triangle formed by the lines of falling and rising price channels. The Support is the line of 105.75 and the resistance is at 106.54. Fixation under the green bottom line will allow the price to decline to 105.00, which consolidates above the upper one that opens up the prospect of growth to 108.62.

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On the four-hour chart, the signal line of the Marlin oscillator should go into the zone of positive numbers for the first sign of growth to appear. Visually, this will happen just with the release of prices above 106.54. The first growth target will be the MACD line at 107.42.

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Control zones USDCAD 08/07/19

Today, a priority upward model has been implemented, as the pair tested the WCZ 1/2 target zone 1.3303-1.3294. Further growth will depend on whether the pair can gain a foothold above the specified zone. If the close of US trading occurs above the level of 1.3303, then the upward priority will remain in the second half of the week.

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It is important to note that there is a zone of the average weekly move at the level of 1.3320. A test of this level and going beyond it requires you to close all purchases and begin to consider a pattern for selling.

The second model that needs to be considered will be developed after the pair reaches the value of the average weekly move. This will allow us to consider the false breakdown pattern for entering the correctional downward model.

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Daily CZ - daily control zone. The area formed by important data from the futures market, which change several times a year.

Weekly CZ - weekly control zone. The zone formed by important marks of the futures market, which change several times a year.

Monthly CZ - monthly control zone. The zone, which is a reflection of the average volatility over the past year.

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Control zones USDCHF 08/07/19

Yesterday's growth became natural, as the pair tested the monthly short-term of August. Further growth is a priority, and it is better to refuse sales. Previously opened sales can be completely closed, since the probability of a strong further decline is 30%.

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The zone of the weekly average move was also tested earlier this week. The first upward target is the Weekly Control Zone 1/2 level of 0.9820-0.9809. Testing this zone will partially close yesterday's purchases, and the rest will be transferred to breakeven.

The reversal model will be developed if the closure of today's US session will occur above the level of 0.9820. This will indicate an increase in the probability of further growth to 70%. The search for the pattern for sale with the testing of WCZ 1/2 is also possible because this zone is crucial for corrective upward movement.

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Daily CZ - daily control zone. An area formed by important data from the futures market that changes several times a year.

Weekly CZ - weekly control zone. An area formed by the important marks of the futures market, which change several times a year.

Monthly CZ - monthly control zone. An area that reflects the average volatility over the past year.

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#USDX vs GBP / USD h4 vs EUR / USD h4. Comprehensive analysis of movement options from August 07, 2019 APLs & ZUP analysis

We will comprehensively consider the development options for the movement of currency instruments #USDX vs EUR / USD vs GBP / USD on Wednesday, August 7, 2019.

Minuette operational scale (H4)

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US dollar index

We have here currently is the #USDX in 1/2 Median Line channel (97.25 - 97.55 - 97.90) of the Minuette operational scale fork. Respectively, the direction of breakdown of the above levels will begin to determine the further development of the movement of the US dollar index from Wednesday, August 7, 2019. Markup of options movements within the 1 / 2 Median Line channel of the Minuette are shown in the animated graph.

If there will be a breakdown of the upper boundary of the 1/2 Median Line channel (resistance level of 97.90) of the Minuette operational scale fork, then the upward movement #USDX can be continued to the equilibrium zone (98.10 - 98.40 - 98.60) of the Minuette operational scale fork.

On the other hand, the breakdown of the lower boundary of the l 1/2 Median Line channel of the Minuette operational scale fork (support level of 97.25) will confirm that further the development of the movement of the dollar index will continue in the equilibrium zone (97.40 - 96.90 - 96.45) of the Minuette operational scale fork.

The details of the #USDX movement are presented in the animated chart.

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Euro vs US dollar

Further development of the movement of the single European currency EUR / USD from August 7, 2019 will be due to the direction of the breakdown of the range :

  • resistance level of 1.1200 (lower boundary of the ISL38.2 equilibrium zone of the Minuette operational scale fork);
  • support level of 1.1170 (upper boundary of the 1/2 Median Line channel Minuette).

The breakdown of the support level of 1.1170 will determine the development of the movement of the single European currency within the 1/2 Median Line channel of the Minuette (1.1170 - 1.1140 - 1.1110) and the equilibrium zone (1.1140 - 1.1110 - 1.1075) of the Minuette operational scale fork.

Meanwhile, the breakdown of the resistance level of 1.1200 (ISL38.2 Minuette) will confirm that the development of the EUR / USD movement will begin again to occur in the equilibrium zone (1.1200 - 1.1255 - 1.1305) of the Minuette operational scale fork.

The details of the movement are shown in the animation chart.

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Great Britain pound vs US dollar

The development of Her Majesty's currency movement GBP / USD from Wednesday, August 7, 2019, will be determined by the development and direction of the breakdown of the boundaries of the 1/2 Median Line channel (1.2170 - 1.2210 - 1.2240) of the Minuette operational scale fork. Let's look at the animated chart for the options for this movement.

On the other hand, the return of GBP / USD below the support level of 1.2170 (the lower boundary of the 1/2 Median Line Minuette channel) will make it relevant to resume the downward movement of GBP / USD to the targets - 1/2 Median Line channel (1.2130 - 1.2100 - 1.2070) of the Minuette operational scale fork - the initial line SSL Minuette (1.2045) - control line LTL (1.2030) Minuette operational scale fork - control line LTL Minuette (1.1984).

On the contrary, considering that the resistance level of 1.2240 is broken (the upper boundary of the channel is 1/2 Median Line Minuette), then it will be possible to continue the development of the upward movement of Her Majesty's currency to the upper boundary of the ISL61.8 (1.2280) zone of equilibrium of the Minuette operational scale fork and to the zone of equilibrium ( .2290 - 1.2360 - 1.2430 of the Minuette operational scale fork.

The details of the GBP / USD movement are presented on the animated chart.

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The review is made without taking into account the news background. The opening of trading sessions of the main financial centers does not serve as a guide to action (placing orders "sell" or "buy").

The formula for calculating the dollar index :

USDX = 50.14348112 * USDEUR0.576 * USDJPY0.136 * USDGBP0.119 * USDCAD0.091 * USDSEK0.042 * USDCHF0.036.

where power factors correspond to the weights of the currencies in the basket:

Euro - 57.6% ;

Yen - 13.6%;

Pound Sterling - 11.9% ;

Canadian dollar - 9.1%;

Swedish Krona - 4.2%;

Swiss franc - 3.6%.

The first coefficient in the formula leads the index to 100 at the start date of the countdown - March 1973, when the main currencies began to be freely quoted relative to each other.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

The greenback receives a "black mark" from Trump

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Last week, the United States announced the introduction of new tariffs on Chinese imports, in response to which China has allowed its national currency to fall to record lows.

Washington's reaction was not slow. The US administration has officially recognized China as a currency manipulator.

"The goal of China's devaluation of the national currency is to gain an unfair competitive advantage in international trade," the US Treasury said.

China has rejected all the accusations against it.

"This stigma is completely inconsistent with the criteria set by the US Treasury for countries engaged in manipulating the exchange rate. Action from the United States is a one-sided and protectionist act that seriously violates international standards. This will have a serious impact on the global economy," according to a statement from the People's Bank of China.

According to analysts, the decision of the US Ministry of Finance to classify China as currency manipulators could lead to the outbreak of a currency war between the two countries.

"The implications of China's recognition of the currency manipulator could be colossal. The United States may use this decision as a pretext for introducing additional unilateral prohibitive duties. This will lead to the closure of all imports from China, " warns professor of Cornell University Esvar Prasad.

It is assumed that if Donald Trump feels that the US economy will slow down against the backdrop of current events, the possibility of conducting currency interventions with the aim of weakening the dollar will again be on the agenda.

Serious pressure on the greenback is currently being exerted by recent expectations that the Fed will aggressively weaken monetary policy.

The probability of a federal funds rate cut by 25 basis points at the September meeting is now estimated at more than 75%. It is noteworthy that a week ago the chances of an additional round of rate cuts were only 60%.

"The US central bank seems to be held hostage by markets for which the expectation of cheap money is the only argument in favor of growth," Raiffeisenbank analysts said.

"There is another important factor - the pressure from the US president, who desperately needs economic growth to be re-elected for a second term and who has been raining tweets on the Fed for more than a year, calling the leadership of the US central bank incompetent and demanding a weaker dollar to win the trade war with China," said MUFG economist Chris Rupkey.

Citigroup believes that if the Federal Reserve cuts rates in an attempt to smooth out the impact of the global GDP slowdown on the US economy, the monetary policy created by protectionism will not solve the problems.

According to Judy Shelton, who was recently nominated by D. Trump as an official of the FOMC, monetary stimulation is more effective for manipulating currencies than for accelerating economic growth. This is again an argument in favor of the fact that by increasing tariffs on Chinese imports, the owner of the White House provokes an escalation of not only trade, but also currency war.

Apparently, the head of the US administration decided to raise rates at the same time both in discussions with the Federal Reserve and with Beijing.

However, for strong EUR/USD growth, just wanting to weaken the greenback is clearly not enough, and buying the euro should be considered only in the event of breaking resistance at 1.133 and 1.137, while a return to support at 1.1175 and 1.112 will create the prerequisites for opening shorts.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Oil under pressure: the market is balancing near $60

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On Tuesday, August 6, the price of Brent crude oil futures increased by 0.4% to $60.06 per barrel. The black gold market remains under pressure, despite frequent attempts at a corrective rebound, thanks to which oil prices are close to $60.5.

Pressure on the black gold market is exerted by foreign trade uncertainty and the risks associated with a possible drop in energy demand. The United States threatened to introduce 10% duties on Chinese goods worth $300 billion a year starting on September 1, 2019, in this process. Donald Trump's statement on the introduction of restrictions on goods from China produced the effect of an exploding bomb, analysts say. A similar situation knocked the ground out from under the feet of investors. "Suddenly caught between the escalation of the US trade war and promises of Chinese retaliation, investors have come up with nothing better than to pull down the stock market and oil quotes," analysts say with bitter irony.

Another significant factor creating a threat to the global economy was the decision of Chinese authorities to depreciate the national currency. As a result, the US dollar rose above 7 yuan to a high of more than 10 years.

A day earlier, on Monday, analysts marked an increase in Brent oil quotes during Asian trading in response to a demonstration of strength by Iran and growing tensions with the West. At the same time, WTI crude oil fell in price due to concerns about a decrease in demand in China, which remains one of the leading buyers of US oil.

Weak quarterly data from many US mining companies also put pressure on WTI quotes. For example, papers of Concho Resources Corporation sank by an impressive 22% last Thursday. The company's management plans to reduce costs and abandon the drilling of new wells in the second half of 2019 in order to stabilize oil prices.

According to analysts, exports of raw materials from the United States grew by 260 thousand barrels in June, reaching a record 3.16 million barrels per day. According to analysts, this indicates a high offer. However, the overall picture of the black gold market is not very positive. Analysts at the largest Goldman Sachs bank believe that oil demand in 2019 did not live up to expectations. This year, demand for black gold has disappointed market participants due to weak economic activity and tensions in world trade, Goldman Sachs emphasizes.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com