Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for June 11, 2018

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Daily Outlook

In April 2018, the short-term outlook turned to become bearish when the EUR/USD pair maintained trading below the broken uptrend as well as the lower limit of the depicted consolidation range.

Bearish persistence below the price level of 1.2200 allowed further bearish decline towards the price levels of 1.1990 and 1.1880.

As mentioned, the price zone (1.1850-1.1750) offered temporary bullish rejection towards 1.1990 where a descending high was established.

The EUR/USD bulls failed to pursue towards higher bullish targets. Instead, further bearish momentum was expressed in the market.

Currently, the price zone (1.1850-1.1750) is now considered a prominent Supply zone to be watched for bearish rejection and possible SELL entries. S/L should be placed above 1.1900.

On the other hand, when bearish momentum dominates, bearish persistence below 1.1700-1.1750 (zone of previous daily lows) will be needed to enhance further bearish decline towards 1.1400 (the previously mentioned monthly key-level).

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NZD/USD Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for for June 11, 2018

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The price zone of 0.7320-0.7390 stood as a significant supply zone during recent bullish pullback. The bulls failed to execute a successful Bullish breakout above 0.7400 during the previous week's consolidations.

The NZD/USD pair had been trapped between the price levels of 0.7170 and 0.7350 until bearish breakdown of 0.7200 occurred.

Since April 13, significant bearish pressure has been applied. This probably turns the short-term outlook for the NZD/USD pair into bearish giving considerable significance to the multiple-top reversal pattern.

That's why, bearish breakdown of 0.7220-0.7170 (neckline zone) was needed to confirm the depicted reversal pattern. Bearish target levels around 0.7050 and 0.7000 have been achieved already.

The bearish scenario needs obvious bearish persistence below 0.7050 to maintain significant bearish momentum towards 0.6860 and 0.6820. That's why, the price level of 0.7050 is currently considered a key-level for the NZD/USD bears.

Any bullish breakout above the price level of 0.7050 hinders further bearish decline allowing bullish pullback to occur towards 0.7170-0.7220.

On the other hand, when bearish momentum persists, the price zone of 0.6820-0.6780 will be the next destination for the NZD/USD pair. It should be watched for bullish rejection and a possible valid BUY entry.

The current bullish pullback towards the price level of 0.7050 (Broken Demand-Level) remains a good opportunity for sellers to have a valid SELL entry. S/L should be placed above 0.7100.

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Fundamental Analysis of USD/JPY for June 11, 2018

USD/JPY has been quite surprising with the impulsive bullish momentum today after bouncing off the 109.20 recently. The bearish momentum in this pair was quite strong recently, while it took off with an impulsive bullish momentum today.

Ahead of the BOJ Policy Rate to be published on Friday, which is expected to be unchanged at -0.10% and BOJ Policy Statement to be followed after that, the pair is likely to trade with higher volatility this week. Though BOJ has been planning a long-term economic growth rather than any immediate effect, USD has been struggling in light of the recent economic reports and events as well. Today, Japan's Core Machinery Orders report was published with an increase to 10.1% from the previous value of -3.9% which was expected to be at 2.5%, M2 Money Stock remained unchanged at 3.2% which was expected to increase to 3.3%, and Prelim Machine Tool Orders report was published with a decrease to 14.9% from the previous value of 22.0%.

On the USD side, this week US CPI, PPI, and Retail Sales reports are going to be published. They are expected to have optimistic impact on USD in the coming days. Though today there are no macroeconomic reports to support USD gains, pending high impact economic reports later this week are expected to have effect on further gains.

As for the current scenario, USD is expected to gain further over JPY in the coming days if BoJ fails to impress market participants with changes in its policy. Though USD is expected to have an upper hand over JPY, the current market situation is quite volatile as the recent G7 Meeting will entail more events to happen in the coming days.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price is currently residing inside the range of 108.50 to 110.50 from where it definitely needs a breakout below or above for definite trend pressure. As the preceding trend in place is bullish, the price is expected to break above 110.50 in the coming days with a target towards 112.00. A break below 108.50 will push the price lower towards 105.50 which is currently unlikely. As the price remains above 108.50, the bullish bias is expected to continue.

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Global macro overview for 11/06/2018

In the coming days, we will have a meeting between Trump - Kim, Fed rate hike meeting with revision forecast and press conference, and no ECB meeting, after which the market expects to present the prospects of the quantitative easing program and the results of a thorough analysis of inflation processes in the Euroland. Therefore, the Monday session should be quite calm. There is no longer any negative information from Italy, on the contrary: the finance minister said that the entire government is unequivocally and resolutely supportive of remaining in the eurozone. The factor of European policy comes back to where it belongs, that is, to the background.

It is widely expected that the FOMC meeting on Tuesday-Wednesday will bring interest rate hikes by 25 bps, but there is no strong justification for the Fed's influence on expectations for a total of four hikes in 2018. However, "dot plot" aggregates individual assessments of individual members, so shifting the median from three to four is not completely excluded, although it will be more important how fast the pace of tightening will be implemented in the following years. In general, the FOMC message should be neutral with the risk of moderate surprises both dovish and hawkish. The main risk for the dollar is the fact that a lot of positive information is already discounted (solid data, expectations ahead of FOMC) and it will be more difficult to trigger fresh demand at retail sales on Thursday and industrial production on Friday. Inflation data on Tuesday is to point to acceleration, but the market reaction may be delayed by waiting for the Fed's decision.

In the Eurozone, everything will be revolving around the ECB meeting on Thursday. After the comments of the members of the Governing Council, a debate broke out over the past week about whether we will now know the details of the future of the program. Although the debate on the QE suppression strategy is certain, we do not think that the ECB will announce a detailed plan for the extension after September (and the likely end of the program by the end of 2018). At the conference, President Draghi can be optimistic about the economic outlook, but he will not give any hint as to the timing of the first rate hike. Lack of particulars may be disappointing for market participants, but the decision period may bring about EUR appreciation.

Let's now take a look at the USD/JPY technical picture at the H4 time frame. After the G-7 Summit, the market has broken above the short-term golden trend line and now is challenging the local swing high at the level of 110.27. The strong positive momentum and a bouncing stochastic support the bullish bias, at least in the short term. In order for bulls to restore the full control over the market, they would have to break out above the swing high level at 11.37. The immediate technical support is seen at the level of 109.83.

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for June 11, 2018

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Overview:

The NZD/USD pair didn't make significant movement last week. The bias remains bullish in nearest term testing 0.7185 or higher. The NZD/USD pair continue to rise from the level of 0.6977 in the long term. It should be noted that the support is established at the level of 0.6977 which represents the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level on the H4 chart. The price is likely to form a double bottom in the same time frame. Accordingly, the NZD/USD pair is showing signs of strength following a breakout of the highest level of 0.7057. So, buy above the level of 0.7057 with the first target at 0.7121 in order to test the daily resistance 1 and further to 0.7121. Also, it might be noted that the level of 0.7185 is a good place to take profit because. On the other hand, in case a reversal takes place and the NZD/USD pair breaks through the support level of 0.6977, a further decline to 0.6848 can occur which would indicate a bearish market.

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Fundamental Analysis of EUR/USD for June 11, 2018

EUR/USD has been quite indecisive recently after breaking above 1.1720-50 area with a daily close. On Friday, the price pushed lower with certain impulsiveness but it failed to sustain by the daily close. The indecision is currently assumed as an effect of G7 Meeting which was held recently in Canada whereas more meetings are slated for this week, which will impact the dynamic of this pair in the future.

This week, the ECB Refinancing Rate is going to be published on Thursday which is expected to be unchanged at 0.00% and the ECB Press Conference will follow the policy meeting that is expected to inject a good amount of volatility in the market. Though EUR is expected to gain momentum over USD in the long term, current momentum does not provide enough evidence to expect certain definite pressure in the coming days. Today, Italian Industrial Production report was published with a decrease to -1.2% from the previous value of 1.2% which was expected to be at -0.7%. The worse economic report capped the EUR gains for a certain period after the impulsive bullish momentum observed since morning today.

On the other hand, this week US CPI and PPI and Retail Sales reports are going to be published. The data is expected to make a positive impact on USD in the short run. Though today there are no macroeconomic reports to encourage USD gains, the economic calendar contains a series of economic data later this week. Pending data is expected to provide USD with some support.

As for the current scenario, certain volatility and correction is expected in this pair as the fundamentals later this week for the both currencies are quite indecisive. As for the recent G7 meeting, there are certain issues about foreign trade with the US, so any positive outcome will lead to certain momentum in EUR in the nearest days.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price is currently seen to reject the bullish pressure after an impulsive momentum throughout the day today. The price is being held by the dynamic level of 20 EMA currently, trading above 1.1720-50 area. This indicates certain bullish momentum is still going on. As for the current scenario, the price is expected to retrace towards 1.1720-50 area before pushing higher towards 1.1900 and later towards 1.2050 area in the coming days. Though there are certain chances that the price may proceed lower, the price needs to close below 1.1720 with a daily candle to push lower with a target towards 1.1550 in the future. As the price remains above 1.1720 with a daily close, the bullish bias is expected to continue further.

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for June 11, 2018

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Overview:

Pivot: 0.9857

The USD/CHF pair faced strong resistances at the levels of 0.9943 because support had become resistance this week. So, the strong resistance has been already formed at the level of 0.9943 and the pair is likely to try to approach it in order to test it again. However, if the pair fails to pass through the level of 0.9943, the market will indicate a bearish opportunity below the new strong resistance level of 0.9943 (the level of 0.9943 coincides with a ratio of 78.6% Fibonacci). Moreover, the RSI starts signaling a downward trend, as the trend is still showing strength above the moving average (100) and (50). Thus, the market is indicating a bearish opportunity below 0.9943 for that it will be good to sell at 0.9940 with the first target of 0.9795. It will also call for a downtrend in order to continue towards 0.9733. The daily strong support is seen at 0.9733. However, the stop loss should always be taken into account, for that it will be reasonable to set your stop loss at the level of 0.9994.

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Markets actually froze in anticipation of news from the US

On Monday, trading in the currency markets was fairly calm. The past G7 summit did not introduce any adjustments to D. Trump to the decision on new customs. , He left the meeting before everyone else. The markets seem already expected this, so there was no noticeable reaction in the United States on Tuesday. And on Wednesday, the outcome of the meeting of the American regulator is awaited.

The G7 summit showed that the US under the current administration will follow only its narrow selfish economic interests and allied relations have nothing to do with it. After the summit, Trump went to prepare for a meeting with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un. In our view, this will not be the major event of the week, but the publication of fresh data on US inflation, the results of the Fed meetings and the ECB on monetary policy. And the first will be more interesting than the second.

According to the consensus forecast, the overall consumer inflation in annual terms should grow by 2.8% against 2.5%. In May, the indicator could add 0.2%, thus keeping the previous April growth rate. The base consumer price index (CPI) on an annualized basis will add 2.2% against 2.1%, and its May value will grow by 0.2% against the April increase of 0.1%.

Estimating the expected data, we can say that if they do not disappoint, then this will be a strong reason for the Fed not only to raise interest rates by 0.25% on the meeting result, but also to signal if the inflationary pressures will continue, as well as the process of increasing the borrowing cost. This may manifest itself in a general rise in the average level of interest rates in the updated forecast of the regulator and expectations, for example, the fourth rate increase in the current year.

In the wake of this scenario, the dollar will have to strengthen its attack in the currency markets, despite the fact that raising borrowing costs by the next quarter of a percentage point has already been accounted for in quotes. Making the dollar grow higher can only be a clear increase in the average level of interest rates by the US Federal Reserve, which will undoubtedly become the basis for strengthening the positions of the US currency in the markets.

Forecast of the day:

The EUR/USD pair is trading below 1.1820, remaining in the short-term uptrend. The price may attempt to overcome this mark on the will of low activity of market players before the Fed meeting and the release of inflation figures. If this happen, the pair may grow to 1.1900.

The GBP/USD pair can also get support, following the euro. The positive data on the volume of production in the UK manufacturing industry can be a good additional support for the pair. Overcoming the level of 1.3440 can become the basis for the local growth of the pair to 1.3500.

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* The presented market analysis is informative and does not constitute a guide to the transaction.

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Global macro overview for 11/06/2018

Punctually at 08:30 am GMT the first, important data from Europe appeared this week. The British Industrial Production report and its trade balance are astonishingly surprising.

The latest data from the ONS clearly indicate the large divergence of forecasts by market analysts with real production values in British factories. April data surprise with a decline in the growth rate of 1.4%, wherein March it recorded a cosmetic change of -0.1%. The dynamics of industrial production are also deteriorating - the index in April is down 0.8% on a monthly basis and a deterioration to 1.8% from 2.7% on yearly basis.

Office for National Statistics also reports a noticeably worse balance of international trade recorded in April by the British economy. The UK deficit is growing to GBP 14.04 billion after a loss of only GBP 12 billion in international trade in March. The UK deficit is also growing in settlements with countries outside the European Union - the value of the index amounted in April to GBP 5.37 billion against earlier GBP 3.79 billion.

Let's take a look at the GBP/USD technical picture at the H4 time frame. The first market reaction is in line with what we could expect from the disappointing values of the latest reports. the GBP/USD pair drops below 1.3400, creating new daily lows at the level of 1.3360. This level is very close to the technical support at 1.3353 and might be tested today as the market has fallen out of the golden channel and it looks like the lower prices are possible. The untested technical resistance is seen at the level of 1.3399 and only a sustained breakout above this level would change the short-term bias to bullish.

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Bitcoin analysis for June 11, 2018

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The Bitcoin (BTC) has been trading downwards. The price tested the level of $6.593. Following reports of six publicly listed companies launching their own cryptocurrency exchanges in Japan, three other firms listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange have announced plans to enter the space with various crypto offerings. The technical picture on Bitcoin is bearish.

Trading recommendations:

According to the H1 time - frame, I found strong supply on the market, which is sign that buying looks very risky. I also found potential bearish flag in creation, which is sign that Bitocin went into consolidation. My advice is to watch for potential breakout of the consolidation to confirm further downward continuation. The downward target is set at the price of $6.372.

Support/Resistance

$6.800 – Intraday resistance

$6.594– Intraday support

$6.370 – Objective target

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To the Fed meeting: two scenarios for the dollar

The main event this week is the meeting of the Committee on Monetary Policy of the US Federal Reserve on June 13-14. The main issue is the possible adjustment of the Fed's ultimate goals at the rate, as well as changes in macroeconomic forecasts.

The minutes of the previous meeting contained an indication of the readiness to change the wording on the objectives of the Fed's policy, the markets may consider that the FRS's rate targets will rise, which will lead to an increase in bond yields and, as a consequence, to the growth of the dollar. Another point is the possible asymmetric increase in the rate of excess bank reserves, which can make their storage unprofitable on the Fed's correspondent accounts and will stimulate banks to invest in the economy.

On Tuesday, the report on consumer inflation for May will be published, which is the key to justify any changes in the accompanying commentary to the FOMC meeting and in turn will give grounds for correcting the forecasts.

Long-term forecasts are neutral - there is neither the likelihood of rolling into deflation, nor the threat of rising inflation which may require higher growth rates. By the end of the year, Inflation Core is expected to stabilize slightly above 2%, which is completely satisfied with the Fed, after which a period of stable price growth is expected near the achieved values will be shown.

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It is obvious that the Fed will publicly adhere to the above-mentioned position, since it will give the right to withstand the schedule at a rate. Actually, the main thing that the regulator needs in the current conditions is stability. The Fed informs the markets about its plans for a year or more, and it is important that the changes in these plans are insignificant. This makes it possible to predict the reaction of the markets and to manage this reaction.

From this point of view, there is a problem that is still carefully pushed into the background, but in fact, its action only increases. First of all, these are weak growth rates of average wages which remain historically very low, given the strong recovery of the labor market. Weak revenues mean low inflationary pressures, which will decrease as the rate increases, as the overall consumer demand will decline due to a decrease in consumer lending. The FRS report on consumer loans in April showed that after a peak in December 2017, there is a steady slowdown and if the general level of economic optimism goes down, the situation for the US economy will start to look much worse.

Another parameter that can influence the markets just before the FOMC meeting is the publication of the May budget report on Tuesday. Despite the fact that the media usually focuses on other indicators such as inflation, unemployment and GDP growth, since these are guidelines that the FRS sets after key meetings, but in the present, realities the state of the budget becomes one of the most important factors because it is an indicator for the success of the tax reform and even an indicator of the future steps of the administration and the Federal Reserve.

While the situation is developing negatively, the Congressional Budget Committee showed that for the first 8 months of the 2018 financial year, the deficit was 530 billion, which accounts to 97 billion more than a year earlier. At the same time, incomes grew by 3%, expenses - by 6%. The rate increase with the planned rate requires either an increase in revenues or, a reduction in costs in case of failure, which threatens to reduce the standard of living and could also lead to the defeat of Trump in the next election.

According to CME, the markets are confident in raising the rate at the meeting on June 13, and by September the probability is 66.1%.

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The upcoming rate increase is fully taken into account by the markets and will not have any impact on the quotes.

Thus, the dollar is ready for two possible scenarios, either neutral - if the wordings and forecasts coincide with the forecasts, or aggressive - if the Fed changes its wordings, the rate target, and changes in the policy on surplus reserves. In the second case, the dollar will strengthen across the entire spectrum of the market immediately after the publication of the final statement.

* The presented market analysis is informative and does not constitute a guide to the transaction.

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Analysis of Gold for June 11, 2018

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Recently, Gold has been trading sideways at the price of $1,295.70. According to the H1 time – frame, I found a broken support trendline inside of the potential bearish flag. My advice is to watch for potential selling opportunities. The downward targets are set at the price of $1,292.30 and at the price of $1,285.30.

Resistance levels:

R1: $1,304.15

R2: $1,305.13

R3: $1,306.05

Support levels:

S1: $1,302.25

S2: $1,301.35

S3: $1,300.36

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential selling opportunities.

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Economic indicators in the euro area are deteriorating

EUR / USD

The G-7 summit ended on the weekend, but its results disappointed all the participants. The anticipated trade war did not receive any decision because the main participant, Donald Trump leave before the final communique was signed. But the summit participants once again called on Russia not to violate the democratic processes in Syria and Ukraine. This opens the gate to the dollar even more. Even there were rumors that the ECB will not announce the exact deadlines for completing the QE program this week, and rather prefer to take into account "additional data". As expected, economic data for the euro area went worse than forecast. Germany's trade balance in April fell from 22.0 billion euros to 19.4 billion, versus the forecast of 20.3 billion euros. German industrial production fell 1.0% against expectations of growth of 0.4%. While industrial production in France for May fell by 0.5% against expectations of growth, also by 0.4%. The euro fell by 32 points.

Today, industrial production of Italy will be released and the April forecast is no longer optimistic at -0.7%. In the United States, a new cycle of attracting external debt begins. Medium- and long-term bonds are placed this week for a total of $ 68 billion, plus short-term 3-month and 6-month promissory notes of $ 90 billion. According to the recent data on June 7, the external debt of the United States will reach 21.059 trillion dollars. In the face of political tension, demand for US bonds will increase which also increases the demand for dollars.

On Tuesday, the US CPI is expected to grow by 0.2%, and on Wednesday the Fed's decision on the rate is awaited. We are expecting for the decline of the euro to 1.1620.

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Pound loses to dollar

GBP / USD

On Friday, the US dollar index had increased by 0.13% due to the weakening of the euro on negative industrial production data in France and Germany. Also, the pound lost 16 points due to unpleasant news from the EU negotiator Michel Barnier on Brexit about the UK's refusal to link to the customs union. This means that the EU insists the introduction of a customs border between Great Britain and Northern Ireland. All this unequivocally shows the systematic and unrelenting pressure of the EU on the UK, which can lead to a very bad deal for the latter.

The volume of UK industrial production in April for today's data is expected to grow by 0.1% (year-on-year growth is expected to slow from 2.9% to 2.7%). While the production in the manufacturing industry is projected to grow by 0.3%, and production in the construction sector may show an increase of 2.4% against -2.3% in March. The trade balance may improve, with the forecast for April at -11.50 billion pounds against -12.30 billion pounds sterling. Forecasts are moderately positive, but the external political situation intensifies negative tones. Probably the pound's decrease to 1.3330.

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USD/CAD for the week of June 11 for simplified wave analysis

Wave picture of the chart H4:

The wave of the trading instrument that was not completed today started in late January. In a model of a larger scale, it took the place of the final part (C). The lower boundary of the preliminary target zone is approximately in 2 price figures from the current exchange rate of the pair.

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The wave pattern of the graph H1:

The direction of short-term trends fits into the algorithm of the rising wave of April 17. An analysis of its structure shows the development of the first 2 parts (AB).

The wave pattern of the M15 chart:

Since may 31, it is possible to track the upward wave structure, in which the middle part (B) is formed in the recent days.

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Recommended trading strategy:

Selling will become relevant after the completion of the bullish trend wave. On a weekly scale, traders need to wait for the rollback to end and look for buy signals.

Resistance zones:

- 1.3020/1.3070

- 1.3200/1.3250

Support zones:

- 1.2830/1.2780

Explanations of figures: Simplified wave analysis uses a simple 3-part waveform (A-B-C). At each TF the last incomplete wave is analyzed. Zones show the estimated areas with the greatest probability of a turn.

Arrows indicate the wave counting according to the technique used by the author. The solid background shows the generated structure, dotted - the expected wave motion.

Attention: The wave algorithm does not take into account the duration of the tool movements in time. To conduct a trade transaction, you need confirmation signals from your trading systems!

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EUR/USD analysis for June 11, 2018

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Recently, the EUR/USD pair has been trading upwards. The price tested the level of 1.1820. According to the H1 time – frame, I found a broken supply trendline in the background, which is a sign of the strength. I also found a rejection of a support trendline, which is another sign of strength. My advice is to watch for potential buying opportunities. The upward targets are set at the price of 1.1840 and at the price of 1.1930.

Resistance levels:

R1: 1.1790

R2: 1.1796

R3: 1.1805

Support levels:

S1: 1.1776

S2: 1.1766

S3: 1.1761

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential buying opportunities.

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The EU will resort to retaliatory measures

The European currency managed to regain its position, after a slight decline on Friday, against the backdrop of profit-taking by large players. However, the results of the G7 meeting did not lead to a drastic change in the alignment of forces in the market, which, in fact, were quite expected.

It was not possible to achieve any results in the negotiations, regarding trade relations between the EU and the US. Yesterday, German Chancellor Angela Merkel said that the lack of approval of the final communique of the G-7 summit by US President Donald Trump was a depressing fact. Merkel once again made it clear that Europe will not stand aside and show its weakness in international trade negotiations. However, changes in trade relations, according to the German Chancellor, do not yet mark the end of the Transatlantic Union.

It should be noted that the response package of measures on the part of the EU has already been prepared and will be formally submitted to the WTO on July 1 this year.

The euro is supported by rumors that the European Central Bank is actively discussing the strategy of the progressive curtailment of the program of asset purchases by the end of the year, which will make it possible next year to talk about the first interest rate rises in the eurozone since the 2008 crisis.

Against the backdrop of the lack of important fundamental statistics, political events come to the fore. Now many traders and investors are closely following the summit of the leader of the North Korea Kim Jong-un with US President Donald Trump, which is to be held in Singapore on June 12. Some experts predict a failure of the talks, or a lack of results. Some express an opinion on the likely change in relations and the building of a friendly dialogue for the future.

On Friday in the afternoon, data came out that failed to support the US dollar. According to the report of the US Department of Commerce, stocks in the wholesale sector were replenished at a more moderate pace in April than in March.

Thus, inventories in wholesale trade grew by 0.1% compared to the previous month, while economists expected that the figure would remain unchanged. In March, inventories increased by 0.2%.

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It should be noted that the increase in inventories in the private sector makes a positive contribution to the growth of US GDP. In comparison with April of the previous year inventories in the US wholesale trade increased by 7.8%.

As for the technical picture of the EURUSD pair, the alignment of forces, even after Friday's sharp decline in the euro, did not change. Buyers are still aiming at resistance level 1.1820, the breakthrough of which will resume the upward movement in euro, which will lead to the zone of new highs of the month to large areas of 1.1890 and 1.1930.

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The yen has a new wave of optimism

USD / JPY

Last Friday, the yen fell a little on rumors which will be confirmed in the future, as Donald Trump had a premature departure from the G-7 summit without signing a resolution. There are also strikes and rallies in Vietnam and Bucharest. On Saturday, the Chinese CPI showed in the May assessment that the indicator remained at 1.8% YoY. While the producer price index increased from 3.4% YoY to 4.1% YoY. This morning, the Japanese index of basic orders for machinery products in April showed a strong increase of 10.1% m/m against the forecast of 2.5% and -3.9% in March. The monetary aggregate in May kept its growth at the level of the previous month - 3.2% YoY. Despite the forecast of 3.2%, the indicator can carry positive expectations for inflation.

Tomorrow will be the first meeting of Donald Trump with Kim Jong-un in Singapore, which is anticipated to be the first relations between the two leaders on the issue of the DPRK nuclear program. These are all positive moments for the dollar and USD/JPY pair growth. On Monday, the Japanese stock index Nikkei 225 is growing at 0.60%.

Also, the BSI index of business sentiment in major industrial companies in Japan (BSI Manufacturing) for the 2nd quarter will be issued tomorrow, it is expected to grow from 2.9 to 3.2 points. Japan's producer price index for May is forecasted to grow tomorrow from 2.0% YoY to 2.1% YoY. Also, the tertiary index of business activity in the service sector for April is expected to grow by 0.6% against -0.3% in March.

We are looking forward to the continued growth of the yen in the range of 110.85-111.10 and further (after raising the Fed rate) to 112.05.

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* The presented market analysis is informative and does not constitute a guide to the transaction.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Trading plan for the European session on June 11 for the GBP/USD

To open long positions on GBP/USD it is required:

Buyers, in order to maintain the upward trend, require breakthrough and consolidation above intermediate resistance 1.3437, but the main target will be to go beyond the highs of June 7 at 1.3474, which will open new areas of resistance 1.3523 and 1.3563, where it is recommended recording profits. If the pound drops below the support level of 1.3402 in the morning, long positions can be opened on a rebound from 1.3362 and 1.3336.

To open short positions on GBP/USD it is required:

An unsuccessful break above 1.3437 with a return to this level will be the first signal for the bears, who will try to return the pair to the support level of 1.3402 today, which will lead to the formation of a larger downward trend with the renewal of the area 1.3362 and 1.3336, where it is recommended recording the profit. In the case of a breakout and growth above 1.3437 in the morning, it is best to return to short positions against the trend of 1.3474 and a rebound from 1.3523.analytics5b1e1e27153f8.png

Description of indicators

  • MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow
  • MA (moving average) 30 days - green
  • MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9
  • Bollinger Bands 20
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Trading plan for the European session on June 11 for the EUR/USD

To open long positions on EURUSD it is required:

The buyers still have the same task. A break with consolidation above 1.1819 will make it possible to count on a new wave of growth of the European currency with the update of the monthly highs around 1.1869 and 1.1923. If the EUR/USD falls in the morning under the support level 1.1773, buying the euro is best after the test of 1.1730 and on the rebound from 1.1695.

To open short positions on EURUSD it is required:

Failure to rise above resistance 1.1819 with a return to this level in the first half of the day will be the first signal for the opening of short positions in euros with the main target of breakdown and consolidation below support 1.1773, which will lead to a larger downward correction to the area 1.1730 and 1.1695, where it is recommended recording profit. In the case of growth above 1.1819, the euro can be sold on a rebound of 1.1869 and 1.1923.

analytics5b1e1eb13a830.png

Description of indicators

  • MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow
  • MA (moving average) 30 days - green
  • MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9
  • Bollinger Bands 20
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Wave analysis of GBP/USD for June 11. Correctional wave continues its formation.

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Analysis of wave counting:

During the trades on June 8, the GBP/USD pair moved in different directions, ending the day with a drop of just a few points. Thus, the construction of the corrective wave a, in 2 continues with the first target of 1.3478, which corresponds to 23.6% Fibonacci, with the prospect of reaching 1.3651. Local lows from June 1 and 4 support the rise in quotations and formation of wave a. A successful attempt to break through the level of 1.3478 will show the market's readiness to further increase of quotations. It is possible to wait for the resumption of the downward trend part of the trend not earlier than the end of wave 2 or the break of the lows from May 29.

Targets for buying:

1.3478 - 23.6% by Fibonacci

1.3528 - 127.2% by Fibonacci of the highest order

1.3651 - 38.2% by Fibonacci

Targets for selling:

1.3045 - 200.0% by Fibonacci of the highest order

General conclusions and trading recommendations:

The assumed wave 2, in a becomes more persuasive, and the increase in quotations is most likely to continue. Thus, it is recommended to buy in small volumes (since the wave is still correctional) with targets located near the markers 1.3478 and 1.3651. It is recommended to return to selling if the pair makes a successful attempt to break the low of May 29, with targets below 1.3045.

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Wave analysis of EUR/USD for June 11. A corrective move from the highs reached began.

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Analysis of wave counting:

During the trades on Friday, the EUR/USD fell 30 basis points, but by the end of the trading day it started to rise again. Accurate testing of the estimated 200.0% Fibonacci level gives grounds to assume the completion of the proposed wave 1, 1, 3. If this is the case, then we are waiting for the construction of a three-wave corrective structure with targets located in the range 1.1637 - 1,1675. A successful attempt to break the 1.1835 mark will lead to a complication of wave 1, in 1 or at the beginning of the construction of the supposed wave 3, at 1, at 3 with targets about 20 figures.

Targets for selling:

1.1675 - 50.0% by Fibonacci

1.1637 - 61.8% by Fibonacci

Targets for buying:

1.1958 - 161.8% by Fibonacci of the highest order

1.2070 - 127.2% by Fibonacci of the highest order

General conclusions and trading recommendations:

The EUR/USD currency pair supposedly completed the construction of wave 1, at 1 near the mark of 1,1835. Thus, now the pair began to withdraw quotes from the reached highs with the targets of 1.1675 and 1.1637 within the wave 2, in 1. This movement can be attained, but only by small volumes, since this is still a correction. After the completion of this wave (breakthrough 1,1835), a resumption of the rise is expected and it is recommended to resume buying with targets located near 1.1958 and 1.2070, which corresponds to 161.8% and 127.2% of Fibonacci.

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Trump and the Big Seven: Results

Trump and the Big Seven: Results.

On June 8-9 in Canada, the G-7 summit was held at the level of the Heads of State.

The focus was on Trump and his tough demands from the US government to introduce new increased tariffs on steel and aluminum for all US trading partners including China, Mexico, and other US allies such as Canada and the European countries.

All members of the G-7, except for the United States, ruthlessly opposed the demands of Trump.

The only compromise proposal came from Angela Merkel (Germany): to convene a "forum" for discussion and resolution of trade disputes. In fact, Merkel proposed to forward the matter to the conciliation commission.

The trade war in "US-Allies" will begin in July this year. If there are no agreements, the US allies are ready to introduce retaliatory measures in the form of tariffs on a number of goods from the United States.

Trump did not completely confuse the tough objections of the allies, as the US was in fact isolated.

In his speech before his departure, Trump made a sensational suggestion: Trump proposed (in response to criticism of his new duties) to cancel ALL tariffs, trade barriers and SUBSIDIES for all goods within the G-7.

Of course, this is a strong move but still it's a proposal. At least, the EU can not completely abandon subsidies - for example, agriculture.

Thus, there are two ways: negotiation and compromise. The second option is a trade war already expected in July.

* The presented market analysis is informative and does not constitute a guide to the transaction.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Indicator analysis. Daily review for June 11, 2018 on the GBP/USD pair.

Trend analysis (Figure 1).

On Friday, the price re-tested, but could not overcome 21 average EMA, which means that on Monday, most likely, there may be a downward movement. Complex analysis will more accurately tell where the price will go.

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Fig. 2 (daily chart).

Complex analysis:

- Indicator analysis - up;

- Fibonacci levels - up;

- volumes - upwards;

- candle analysis - down;

- trend analysis - up;

- Bollinger lines - down;

- Weekly schedule - up.

General conclusion:

On Monday, the GBP/USD pair may move up with the first target 1.3479-a recoil level of 23.6% (yellow dotted line).

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Indicator analysis. Daily review for June 11, 2018 on the EUR/USD pair.

Trend analysis (Figure 1).

On Thursday, the market, moving up, tested, but could not overcome the upper fractal 1.1830 (red dotted line) and on Friday continued to move sideways down. Complex analysis will more accurately tell where the price will go.

eurusd-d1-instaforex-companies-group.png

Fig. 2 (daily chart).

Complex analysis:

- Indicator analysis - up;

- Fibonacci levels - up;

- volumes - upwards;

- candle analysis - down;

- trend analysis - up;

- Bollinger lines - down;

- Weekly schedule - up.

General conclusion.

On Monday, the market will move up with the first target of 1.1830 - the upper fractal.

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Weekly review from June 11 to 16 2018 on the GBP/USD pair.

Trend analysis (Figure 1).

Last week, the price moved up, testing the recession level of 23.6% - 1.3479 (yellow dotted line), rolled back down. Next week, the upward movement will continue. Candlestick analysis also confirms the upper work. The first upper target is 1.3479 - the pullback level is 23.6% (yellow dotted line). How much,the possibility of this scenario is, complex analysis will show.

gbpusd-w1-instaforex-group.png

Fig. 2 (weekly chart).

Complex analysis:

- Indicator analysis - up;

- Fibonacci levels - up;

- volumes - upwards;

- candlestick analysis - up;

- trend analysis - up;

- Bollinger lines - up;

- monthly graph - up.

Conclusion on the complex analysis- upward movement.

The total result of estimate the candle of the GBP/USD currency pair on a weekly chart: the price for weeks is likely to have an upward trend with the absence of the first lower shadow of a weekly white candle and the absence of a second upper shadow.

The upper target is 1.3478 - the retracement level is 23.6% (yellow dotted line).

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Weekly review from June 11 to 16 2018 on the EUR/USD pair.

Trend analysis (Figure 1).

The price, moving upwards, closed above the recession level of 23.6% - 1.1756 (the blue dotted line).

Most likely next week, the upward movement will continue with the question, but the price can break through the upper fractal level 1.1830 (red dotted line). The first attempt failed.

eurusd-w1-instaforex-companies-group.png

Fig. 2 (weekly chart).

Complex analysis:

- Indicator analysis - up;

- Fibonacci levels - up (blue dotted line);

- volumes - upwards;

- candlestick analysis - up;

- trend analysis - up;

- Bollinger lines - up;

- monthly graph - up.

Conclusion on complex analysis - up.

The total result of the calculation of the candle currency pair EUR/USD on a weekly chart: the price for a week is likely to have an upward trend with the absence of the first lower shadow of a weekly white candle and the absence of a second upper shadow.

The first upper target is the upper fractal level 1.1830 (red dashed line).

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Daily analysis of EUR/JPY for June 11, 2018

EUR/JPY

The bias on this currency trading instrument has just turned bullish. Since May 30, price has rallied by 500 pips, reaching the supply zone at 130.00, before the current bearish correction (which happened on June 8). A sideways movement throughout this week will bring about a neutral bias on the market.

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A test of the demand zone at 127.50 will threaten the new bullish bias on the market; while a movement towards the supply zones at 129.50, 130.00 and 130.50 will strengthen it. There will be a measure of volatility in the market this week.

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Daily analysis of USD/JPY for June 11, 2018

USD/JPY

The USD/JPY pair is bullish in the long term, but neutral in the short term. In the last two weeks, price has generally oscillated between the demand level at 108.50 and the supply level at 110.50. As long as price continues to oscillate between those demand and supply levels, the short-term bias would be neutral.

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Mixed signals will be witnessed on certain JPY pairs this week (and thus USD/JPY). A break above the supply level at 110.50 will result in confirmation of the existing long-term bullish outlook while a break below the demand level at 108.50 will result in a clean bearish outlook.

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Daily analysis of USD/CHF for June 11, 2018

USD/CHF

This is a weak market as USD/CHF has been caught in a slow and gradual bearish movement since May 10 (over 230 pips). It is possible that the market would continue going further downwards (albeit slowly), especially when EUR/USD gains a lot of stamina. This is because the EUR/USD and the USD/CHF are negatively correlated.

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There is a Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the market. The support levels at 0.9800 (which has previously been tested), 0.9750 and 0.9700, would be reached soon, and that might bring about a strong Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the market.

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Overview of EUR/USD for a week of June 11 on simplified wave analysis

Wave picture of the chart H4:

On the chart of the Euro major since mid-February, the trend direction is set by the downward wave. In a large wave model, it takes the place of correction. The wave structure is still not fully formed.

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The wave pattern of the graph H1:

The unfinished wave for today from the end of March, in a larger design became the final part (C). The quotes reached the upper limit of the intermediate support zone.

The wave pattern of the M15 chart:

The upward section of May 29 started after the price contact with the upper boundary of a large-scale zone. The potential of this section exceeds the level of rollback. The probability of continuation is high, with the formation of a full correction of the previous wave.

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Recommended trading strategy:

A supporter of trading on a large scale of the chart must wait for the completion of the entire bearish wave. It is necessary for those trading TF below M15 to wait for the buy signals, after the completion of the upcoming rollback.

Resistance zones:

- 1.1880/1.1930

Support zones:

- 1.1540/1.1490

Figure explanations: Simplified wave analysis uses a simple 3-part waveform (A-B-C). On each TF, the last, unfinished wave is analyzed. The zones demonstrate the calculated areas with the highest probability of reversal.

The arrows indicate the wave marking according to the method used by the author. The solid background shows the generated structure, dotted - the expected wave motion.

Attention: The wave algorithm does not take into account the duration of the trading instrument's movements in time. To conduct a trade transaction, you need confirmation signals from your trading systems!

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Bitcoin analysis for 11/06/2018

The report of the Russian rating agency Analytical Credit Rating Agency (ACRA) states that cryptocurrencies are not yet usable as a means of payment. According to them, the cryptocurrency "currently does not fully fulfill any function of money" because the volatility of the exchange rate is too high to be effective as a payment - volatility comparable to fluctuations in food prices. The report also noted that using a crypto does not reduce transaction costs in the economy due to "energy inefficiencies [...], lack of economies of scale in ensuring cyber security and low speed of entries in the [Blockchain] register. All these factors reduce the value of the potential benefit of reducing the number of intermediaries in settlements ". - we can read in the report.

ACRA writes that the comparison of cryptocurrencies with fiat currencies and their intrinsic value emphasizes how the market value of cryptocurrencies is shaped mainly on the basis of investors' expectations ready to sell it in the future at a higher price. Factors that can increase the use of ACRA cryptocurrencies include tightening sanctions in the context of developing foreign policy and external economic tensions.

Last Thursday, during an annual Q&A, held live with the public, the President of Russia Vladimir Putin spoke ambiguously, but mainly negatively about cryptocurrencies. He noted, however, that Russia will investigate how it can use cryptocurrencies to "avoid any restrictions on international financial activity", which could be a reference to avoiding the western sanctions currently imposed on the country.

The ACRA report states that in the future in Russia the use of cryptocurrencies will not become quite common due to: "quite strict approach to regulation by the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, high investment risk, an insufficient number of companies ready to accept payment for their goods and services in cryptocurrencies, [...] and no guarantee of fund security, which is an inherent feature of traditional money". The most important Russian bill on cryptography and Blockchain "On digital financial assets" was almost unanimously approved during the first reading at the end of May in the State Duma. The final version of the legislation on cryptography is to be adopted by 1 July.

Let's now take a look at the Bitcoin technical picture at the H4 time frame. The market did not manage to challenge the technical resistance at the level of $7,890 and after making a local high at the level of $7,752 (Bearish Harami candlestick pattern) the price started to drop, aggressively breaking the local supports at $7,225 and $6,993. The bears have pushed the price to the low at the level of $6,588 and now the market is slowly starting to bounce. Nevertheless, if the level of $6,402 is violated, then the impulsive bullish scenario gets invalidated and the decline will accelerate towards the target level at $5,790.

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Trading plan for 11/06/2018

The confusion at the G-7 summit and another dispute over the rules of conducting foreign trade do not cause an explosion of risk aversion. The market is waiting for a meeting between Trump - Kim and Fed and ECB meetings. USD / JPY grows to 110.00 not only due to positive moods but also to local government results in Niigata, where the candidate from the Prime Minister Abe camp won. This may somewhat ease the fears of his weakening position.

The Swiss have explicitly rejected the Vollgeld concept in the referendum, ie a radical reform of the banking system, assuming that only the SNB would be responsible for the creation of money. EUR / CHF is growing today towards 1.1650.

The euro is today the strongest of the main currencies. EUR / USD after defending 1.1750 returns above 1.18, ie to increases towards an important resistance zone around 1.1850. There is no longer any negative information from Italy, on the contrary: the finance minister said that the entire government is unequivocally and resolutely supportive of remaining in the Eurozone.

On Monday 11th of June, the event calendar is light in important data releases, but the market participants should keep an eye on Industrial Production data from France, Italy and the UK. Moreover, the UK will post NIESR GDP Estimate data, Visible Trade Balance data and Manufacturing Production data as well. The US session calendar is empty.

EUR/USD analysis for 11/06/2018:

The main event of the weekend was the G-7 summit. Initially, the leaders seemed to support the common position, but after Trudeau's comments at the press conference, Trump withdrew his support for the message. The United States eventually did not sign the document. The administration has verbally attacked not only the Prime Minister of Canada, but also the European Union.

The Euro is today the strongest of the main currencies. Negative information is no longer coming from Italy, on the contrary: the finance minister said that the whole government is unequivocally and resolutely supportive of remaining in the Eurozone. EUR/USD after defending the level of 1.1750 returns above 1.1800 as the bulls trying to test the recent local high at the level of 1.1839. The market remains above the golden trend line, so the rally higher is still more probable than a sell-off. The strong momentum and rising stochastic indicator support the bullish bias.

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Ichimoku cloud indicator analysis of EUR/USD for June 11, 2018

The EUR/USD pair has pulled back on Friday towards 1.17 where it found support both at an upward sloping trend line and on the 4-hour Kijun-sen indicator. Trend remains bullish in the short-term as price is still above the Kumo (cloud) and as price continues to make higher highs and higher lows.

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Magenta line - trend line support

The 4-hour chart of the EUR/USD pair shows us a bullish short-term trend. Price has held above the trend line support and bounced off the kijun-sen support. All these are bullish signs. We should expect EUR/USD to continue higher above 1.19 over the coming weeks. Cloud support is at 1.1680. Technical support is now at 1.1750 where we also find the 4-hour kijun-sen now. Bulls do not want to see these levels broken.

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Technical analysis on Gold for June 11, 2018

Gold price has broken above the medium-term trend line resistance, back tested it but still remains inside the $1,307-$1,290 trading range. We continue to be bullish on Gold, expecting at least a bounce towards $1,320-30.

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Yellow line - medium-term resistance

Magenta lines - trading range

Green line - target

Gold price is trading above the yellow trend line resistance. Support is at $1,293 and next at $1,289. Resistance is at $1,303.25 and next at $1,307. For several days Gold has been moving sideways. My longer-term view remains bullish, but a break below $1,288 could see Gold price dip to $1,275 before turning higher. So traders should keep this scenario also in mind.

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USD/JPY Approaching Support, Prepare For A Bounce

USD/JPY is approaching its support at 109.22 (61.8% Fibonacci extension, 50% Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap support) where we expect prices to rise to its resistance at 110.13 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement, horizontal swing high resistance).

Stochastic (55, 5, 3) is also approaching its support at 5.2% where a corresponding bounce is expected.

Buy above 109.22. Stop loss at 108.91. Take profit at 110.13.

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AUD/NZD Approaching Support, Prepare For A Bounce

AUD/NZD is approaching its support at 1.0781 (61.8% Fibonacci extension, 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, horizontal swing low support) where we expect price to bounce and rise to its resistance at 1.0897 (61.8% Fibonacci extension, horizontal overlap resistance).

Stochastic (55, 5, 3) is approaching its support at 5.9% where a corresponding bounce is expected.

Buy above 1.0781. Stop loss 1.0715. Take profit at 1.0897.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for June 11, 2018

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EUR/NZD failed to break directly above resistance at 1.6821, as a more complex wave ii/ correction developed. This wave ii/ correction now looks complete, with the test of 1.6707. We will be looking for a break above minor resistance at 1.6766 and more importantly above resistance at 1.6812 for an extended rally in wave iii/ towards at least 1.7071.

Only an unexpected break below 1.6707 will delay the expected rally higher.

R3: 1.6830

R2: 1.6812

R1: 1.6766

Pivot: 1.6742

S1: 1.6730

S2: 1.6707

S3: 1.6683

Trading recommendation:

We are long EUR from 1.6600 with our stop placed at 1.6700. If you are not long EUR yet, then buy EUR near 1.6730 and use the same stop at 1.6700.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for June 11, 2018

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We did not expect support at 128.69 to be broken. The break below this support forced us to shifted our preferred count for the rally from 124.59 to 130.26. Instead of a series of waves ones and twos, we have to switch back to this rally being a complete five wave rally as wave i and wave two was a quick sharp decline to 128.07, that corrected 38.2% of wave i. Alternately the decline from 130.26 to 128.07 could be wave a of a more complex correction in wave ii, but only time will show.

Short-term a break above minor resistance at 129.73 will call for a re-test of the 130.26 peak on the way higher to the wave iii extension-target at 137.27.

R3: 130.26

R2: 129.93

R1: 129.73

Pivot: 129.14

S1: 128.91

S2: 128.58

S3: 128.37

Trading recommendation:

Our stop at 128.60 was hit. We will re-buy EUR at 129.25 or upon a break above 129.46. Our stop will be placed at 128.50.

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