Trading plan for EURUSD for November 19, 2019

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Technical outlook:

EURUSD remains low by just 2 pips to take out immediate resistance at 1.1092 and should be on its way to breakthrough. This could be another confirmation that a meaningful bottom is already in place at 1.0991. Only a break below 1.0991 should cause delay for the expected rally towards 1.1500 and higher levels. Since euro bulls found support from the Fibonacci convergence and past resistance turned support zone around the 1.0990/95 zones, the possibility of a bullish reversal is higher. Also note that any intraday pullbacks from current price action around 1.1077 levels should remain capped ahead of 1.0991 and that the retracement should be seen as yet another opportunity to initiate fresh long positions or add further. The overall structure from 1.0879 levels seems to be constructive for bulls with a rally between 1.0879 and 1.1180 followed by an up Gartley terminating around 1.1000 levels. Broadly speaking, 1.0879 remains the line for bulls to remain in control.

Trading plan:

Remain long and add on intraday dips, stop at 1.0879, target is open,

Good luck!

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

A long term perspective_Part 1_US Indices

Good morning everyone!

I'm joining today the MT5 family and I am really happy to be a part of it.

Next days, I will start sharing posts on technical analysis and also with daily reports on all relevant market updates. That is why I am going to give you an analysis where I will show you a strategic approach for trading and investing. Let's start with the risky assets the US stock indexes.

The SP500 rose shy of 500% (and the Nasdaq by an astonishing 680%) since the lowest levels during the Great Financial Crises.

Let's have a look at 2019 approx gains till 15/11:

SP500: 25%

DowJones30: UP 21%

Nasdaq: UP 31%

These are incredibly high returns if you think that a long term average since 1930 is approximately not far from 10% per year.

The main drivers of this raging bull market are:

  1. Easy Liquidity from Central Banks (still going on)
  2. Price to earning expansion (on improved cost structure, technology, and low inflation)
  3. Corporate Buybacks (especially in the US, sowing down)

I will be back to these points in the next days: today, let's have a look at some charts, starting with the NASDAQ WEEKLY one.

It's probably difficult to see something bad with this steady uptrend that brought the price to the new record highs. However, you should pay attention to the following sentences :

  1. How the price is now compressed in a wedge, close to the upper dynamic resistance (also to the upper BB band)
  2. How the trend starting in 2019 has been tested (and pierced) many times since the late Q2 (a sign of fatigue?)
  3. How the RSI is clearly diverging since early 2018 (in my experience, it always takes a lot for any divergence to be reflected on price movement)

Have you noticed the 7 consecutive weeks of gains starting in October? That coincides with the US Central Bank rushing to start its NO QE program for easing the ON Repo Market (providing liquidity to big institutions). This is a very important point to understand and I will be back on it in the next posts.

In my opinion, it will be difficult to see substantial gains in the next weeks/months as valuations could vary at this point.

In the next post, I will give my analysis of the SP500 DAILY CHART.

The Med Trader

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP/USD: plan for the European session on November 19. Talk is not enough. The pound needs better reasons for growth

To open long positions on GBP/USD you need:

Yesterday's Brexit news and statements by the British Conservative Party leader Boris Johnson helped the pound strengthen its position against the US dollar, but so far failed to break through the highs of this month, as the pound needs more compelling reasons for growth and new results of opinion polls. Like yesterday afternoon, at the moment, the bulls are focused on the resistance of 1.2966, which could not be broken above. Consolidation at this level will lead to the continuation of the upward trend formed on November 7, which will reach the highs in the areas of 1.3017 and 1.3074, where I recommend profit taking. With a downward correction, it is best to count on the pound's purchases only after the formation of a false breakout in the support area of 1.2938, or to buy immediately for a rebound from a low of 1.2909. Any positive Brexit news will support the pound, but a downward correction will occur only with a scenario of more pronounced changes in the current political race towards the victory of the Labour Party.

To open short positions on GBP/USD you need:

Sellers continue to keep the pair below the resistance of 1.2966, and while trading is under this range, pressure on the pound will remain. The next formation of a false breakout in this area will be a signal to open short positions, but a more important task for pound sellers will be to return to the support of 1.2938, a break of which will push GBP/USD to lows 1.2909 and 1.2869, where I recommend profit taking. The release of important fundamental data is not expected, so the bulls can continue to push the pound up. If the further growth of the pair will lead to a breakout of the resistance of 1.2966, then in this scenario it is best to consider short positions after updating the high of 1.3017, and also sell the pound immediately for a rebound from 1.3074.

Signals of indicators:

Moving averages

Trade is conducted above 30 and 50 moving averages, which indicates continued growth of the pound in the short term.

Bollinger bands

The upward movement will be limited by the upper indicator level at 1.2966, from where it is possible to open short positions after the formation of a false breakout. In case the pound falls, support will be provided by the lower boundary of the indicator in the area of 1.2940, the break of which will increase the pressure on the pound and lead to its decrease.

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Description of indicators

  • MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow
  • MA (moving average) 30 days - green
  • MACD: Fast EMA 12, Slow EMA 26, SMA 9
  • Bollinger Bands 20
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Control zones NZDUSD 11/19/19

Purchases opened on November 14 must be kept until the weekly control zone 0.6453-0.6441. The test of this zone will be decisive, since the pair is in the medium-term flat, and its upper border coincides with the November high. Support is WCZ 1/2 0.6358-0.6352, which was already tested last week. A retest must be used to find a buy pattern.

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Work within the framework of the flat involves consolidating most of the position on its border. This will leave a part in case of entering the flat phase.

An alternative model will be developed if today's trading closes below the level of 0.6352. This will reverse the upward pattern and allow us to seek sales in the medium term. The probability of implementing this model is 30%, which makes selling from current grades not profitable.

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Daily CZ - daily control zone. The area formed by important data from the futures market, which change several times a year.

Weekly CZ - weekly control zone. The zone formed by important marks of the futures market, which change several times a year.

Monthly CZ - monthly control zone. The zone, which is a reflection of the average volatility over the past year.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Control zones GBPUSD 11/19/19

The upward movement remains a medium-term momentum. Today the further priority will be determined. If the WCZ 1/2 1.2979-1.2960 acts as a resistance and the pair will not be able to gain a foothold above it, then the downward movement will become the main one, and the first target of the decline will be the upper limit of the monthly CZ of October 1.2725.

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Just above yesterday's high is the October extremum. A test of this level can cause a large offer to appear. This needs to be taken into account in today's trading plan.

An alternative model will be developed if today's closing of the US session occurs above the WCZ 1/2. This will open the way for further growth with consolidation above the October maximum. It is important to understand that the test of significant extremes, in most cases, leads to the formation of "false breakdown" patterns.

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Daily CZ – daily control zone. A zone formed by important data from the futures market that changes several times a year.

Weekly CZ – weekly control zone. The zone formed by the important marks of the futures market, which change several times a year.

Monthly CZ – monthly control zone. A zone that reflects the average volatility over the past year.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR/USD: plan for the European session on November 19. The dollar weakened after a meeting between Trump and Federal Reserve

To open long positions on EURUSD you need:

The bulls managed to cope with the task at the beginning of the week and renewed resistance at 1.1082 following the meeting between US President Donald Trump and Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. The meeting discussed economic policy and interest rates, which increased the likelihood of their decrease in December this year. Currently, buyers of the euro need a breakthrough and consolidation above the resistance of 1.1082, which will maintain an upward trend and lead to an update of the highs in the areas of 1.1109 and 1.1131, where I recommend profit taking. Given that no important fundamental statistics are planned for release in the morning, growth may be limited. In the scenario of EUR/USD decline, purchases can be observed only after the formation of a false breakout in the support area of 1.1056, but you can buy immediately for a rebound from a low of 1.1028, slightly above which the lower boundary of the current rising channel passes.

To open short positions on EURUSD you need:

Sellers expectedly returned to the market after the resistance update at 1.1082, which I spoke about in detail in yesterday's review. Currently, while trading will be below this range, we can expect a further decline in the euro, and the formation of a false breakout at this level will signal the opening of new short positions. The main goal of sellers will be to return and consolidate below the support of 1.1056, which will push the pair even lower to the lows of 1.1028 and 1.0994, where I recommend profit taking. However, it will be possible to talk about the formation of a new downward trend only under the condition of breakout of support at 1.1028, where the lower boundary of the current upward correction passes. If demand for the euro continues today in the morning after the release of eurozone data, which is not particularly important, it is best to return to short positions to rebound from a new high of 1.1109, or sell the euro even higher - from the level of 1.1155.

Signals of indicators:

Moving averages

Trading is conducted above 30 and 50 moving average, which indicates the likely continuation of the upward correction in the pair.

Bollinger bands

Growth will be limited by the upper indicator level in the region of 1.1085. In case the pair falls, it is best to consider long positions after updating the lower boundary of the indicator in the region of 1.1056.

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Description of indicators

  • MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow
  • MA (moving average) 30 days - green
  • MACD: Fast EMA 12, Slow EMA 26, SMA 9
  • Bollinger Bands 20
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis: Important Intraday Levels For EUR/USD, November 19, 2019

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When the European market opens, some economic data will be released such as Current Account. The US will also publish the economic data such as Housing Starts and Building Permits, so amid the reports, the EUR/USD pair will move with low to medium volatility during this day. TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVELS: Breakout BUY Level: 1.1122. Strong Resistance: 1.1116. Original Resistance: 1.1105. Inner Sell Area: 1.1094. Target Inner Area: 1.1068. Inner Buy Area: 1.1042. Original Support: 1.1031. Strong Support: 1.1020. Breakout SELL Level: 1.1013. (Disclaimer)The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis: Important Intraday Levels for USD/JPY, November 19, 2019

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In Asia, Japan will not release any economic reports today, while the US will publish some economic data such as Housing Starts and Building Permits. So there is a probability the USD/JPY pair will move with low to medium volatility during this day. TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVELS: Resistance. 3: 109.20. Resistance. 2: 109.00. Resistance. 1: 108.79. Support. 1: 108.49. Support. 2: 108.28. Support. 3: 108.08. (Disclaimer)The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EURUSD Trump's unexpected meeting with Powell alarmed dollar bulls

The Asian session on Tuesday was quite calm for the euro-dollar pair. The US currency is still under background pressure, which significantly intensified last night after the publication of a tweet by US President Donald Trump. He stated that he had a meeting in the White House with Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, and discussed "including negative rates" with him. And although the likelihood of introducing negative rates in the near future is extremely unlikely, the market was worried about the rhetoric of the American president, especially amid pessimism regarding the conclusion of a deal between the United States and China. The dollar index slipped to 97.570 points yesterday, but then somewhat recovered, after the Fed's reaction to the published tweet.

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The US regulator confirmed the meeting between the Fed chief and Trump, but at the same time assured investors that Powell did not discuss his expectations on monetary policy, only stating that the Fed's course "will completely depend on economic prospects." Also, the Fed chairman allegedly said that the regulator would follow its mandate, ensuring maximum employment and price stability. In conclusion, the Fed recalled that members of the central bank make all decisions on the basis of a "thorough, objective, non-politicized analysis. "

On the one hand, the US regulator again emphasized its independence in the matter of further prospects of monetary policy. But on the other hand, the very fact of an unexpected meeting between the head of the Fed and the president is alarming for some experts. The American press notes that such audiences are usually planned in advance - therefore, a certain spontaneity here may indicate some circumstances that are unknown to the market. Secondly, Trump following the dialogue with Powell spoke too warmly about the meeting - perhaps for the first time in the past year and a half. The US president has criticized the Fed for a long time - even when the regulator set about lowering the interest rate. In his opinion, the Fed members acted too slowly, and this fact negatively affects the country's economy. He repeatedly called on them to cut rates immediately by 50 or even 100 basis points, while expressing indignation at the fact that Powell does the US economy "more harm than China."

But the thing is that the Fed is a priori an independent body that does not obey either the head of state or the White House. Trump would have long and gladly removed Powell from office if he could: formally, he has such powers, but this requires more solid reasons (for example, the commission of a crime) than disagreement with his policies. Therefore, the head of the White House had no choice but to express his indignation with Twitter.

Against this background, yesterday's peaceful rhetoric of the president is quite suspicious: impulsive Trump was pleased with the meeting, voicing negative rates among the topics discussed.

The Fed hastened to refute Trump's words, but the regulator confirmed the fact of an unplanned meeting. It is worth noting here that, formally, Fed members throughout the entire time of Trump's reign refused to recognize his influence, declaring their independence. But the de facto Federal Reserve acts in the wake of easing monetary policy, following, as it were, parallel to the tweets of the US president. Earlier this year, Powell quite unexpectedly softened his rhetoric, gradually leading the market to lower rates. Now the process of easing monetary policy is paused, but not completed yet. Speaking in Congress, the head of the Fed made it clear that his colleagues are ready to react accordingly "if circumstances change significantly."

Obviously, we are talking about the consequences of a trade war with China - and here we come to the most likely reason for yesterday's events. According to some experts, Trump discussed with Powell the prospects for monetary policy in the context of the possible failure of negotiations with Beijing. This assumption has emerged amid very gloomy rumors about the US-Chinese dialogue. According to sources on CNBC, the deal is unlikely to be signed in the foreseeable future, since the negotiation process has actually stopped. On the one hand, Trump does not agree to cancel the introduced tariffs (both September and anticipated December). On the other hand, Beijing also does not make significant concessions, especially in light of the impeachment procedure and the upcoming presidential elections, which are less than a year away.

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According to recent polls, Donald Trump is still lagging behind potential rivals from the Democratic Party (and not just Joe Biden). The ongoing trade war negatively affects the rating of the current president, and the Chinese understand this very well. In other words, Beijing is not refusing a dialogue with Washington, but is not in a hurry to compromise, given the possible upcoming changes on the American political Olympus.

If the assumptions of the analysts are correct, then already at the next Fed meeting (which will be held in December) Jerome Powell can significantly soften his position, "worried" about external risks. This topic was previously the focus of the regulator's members, but it's quite "blurry": now Powell can focus the market's attention on the prospects of a trade war in the context of renewed easing of the Fed's monetary policy.

Thus, the EUR/USD pair still retains the potential for corrective growth - today the price can reach the upper limit of the range 1.0980-1.1090. If the pair consolidates above 1.1090 (that is, above the middle Bollinger Bands line, which coincides with the Kijun-sen line on the daily chart), then buyers will have a way to the next resistance level 1.1170 (the upper Bollinger Bands line on the same timeframe).

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Forecast for EUR/USD on November 19, 2019

EUR/USD

On Monday, the euro grew by 20 points, having worked out the target range of 1.1073/93. The euro has a chance to go above the resistance of the downward line of the price channel and continue to grow to the Fibonacci level of 110.0% at the price of 1.1155, but the signal line of the Marlin oscillator unfolds and approaches the territory of the bulls, which indicates the imminent completion of the correction. The immediate goal of the downward movement will be to support the MACD line on daily 1.1013.

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On the four-hour chart, Marlin shows no obvious reversal signs. These can be of two types: divergence and spike. The absence of a pronounced signal warns of a possible small price growth in the range. Perhaps with a small exit above 1.1093, and then it will be the development of the actual price channel line.

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The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Forecast for GBP/USD on November 19, 2019

GBP/USD

The British pound fulfilled its first growth target of 1.2975 yesterday, not reaching the peak on October 21 (1.3012). The signal line of the Marlin oscillator is slightly higher than the neutral zero line, consolidation above the boundary has not yet taken place, the movement of the indicator as a leading indicator of the direction of the price is equally probable in any direction (the Marlin oscillator belongs to the category of leading indicators).

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On the four-hour chart, the Marlin oscillator takes a slow turn, which creates the likelihood of another upward price surge: either for the formation of a reversal divergence, or for higher growth. In turn, the growth option may be twofold: to the peak on October 21 at 1.3012, for which the price must consistently overcome two intermediate levels 1.2975 and 1.2995, and, after consolidating above 1.3012, the second part of the growth to the boundary of the price channel in the region of 1.3168

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It is possible that the price will turn into a medium-term decline from any intermediate level on the way to 1.3012: 1.2975, 1.2995 - in this case there will be a more convenient situation for the formation of divergence on the H4 scale.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR/USD approaching resistance potential drop!

Price is approaching our first resistance where we are expecting a drop below this level.

Entry: 1.10944

50% Fibonacci retracement, 100% Fibonacci extension, horizontal swing high resistance

Take Profit : 1.09994

Why it's good : 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, 78.6% Fibonacci extension, horizontal overlap support

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The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

USD/CAD bounce above support!

USDCAD bounce above 1.31975 expected

Entry: 1.31975

50% Fibonacci retracement, 100% Fibonacci Extension

Take Profit : 1.32290

Why it's good : 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, Descending Trendline resistance

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The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

USD/CHF to bounce from 1st support, potential rally!

Entry: 0.9875

Why it's good: Horizontal swing low support

78.6% Fibonacci retracement

Tke Profit : 0.9983

Why it's good : 78.6% Fibonacci extension

76.4% Fibonacci retracement

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The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Forecast for USD/JPY on November 19, 2019

USD/JPY

On Monday, the USD/JPY pair made a desperate attempt to exit above the red price channel line, but the attempt was unsuccessful. The candle closed above the line of the price channel, which formally is consolidating the price above the level, but taking into account the possible inaccuracy of the graphics on large historical data and the price fluctuation itself, consolidating on the line, as it is not explicit, can be ignored. The Marlin oscillator is going down in the zone of negative values. The purpose of the movement is to maintain the MACD line on the daily chart (107.92). Just below it is support for the embedded price channel line.

An alternative scenario will open after the price overcomes the signal level of 109.30 - growth will continue to the line of the green price channel (109.80).

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On the four-hour chart, the price is again below the MACD line, below the zero line is the signal line of the Marlin oscillator. We are waiting for the price on the designated target 107.92.

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The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

#USDX vs EUR / USD vs GBP / USD vs USD / JPY - H4. Comprehensive analysis of movement options for November 19, 2019 APLs

What will happen to the "majors" this week? Here's a comprehensive analysis of H4 movement options - #USDX, EUR / USD, GBP / USD and USD / JPY for November 19, 2019 on the Minuette operational scale fork

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Us dollar Index

Starting from November 19, 2019, the development of the movement of the dollar index #USDX will be due to the development and direction of the breakdown of the boundary of the 1/2 Median Line channel (98.20 - 97.95 - 97.68) of the Minuette operational scale forks. Look at the animated chart for details.

The breakdown of the support level of 97.68 on the lower boundary of the 1/2 Median line channel of the Minuette operational scale forks will direct the movement #USDX to the boundaries of the equilibrium zone (97.45 - 97.22 - 96.95) of the Minuette operational scale forks.

On the contrary, the breakdown of the resistance level of 98.20 on the upper boundary of the 1/2 Median Line Minuette channel will make it important for the dollar index to reach the goals: control line UTL (98.30) of the Minuette operational scale forks - local maximum 98.45 - equilibrium zone (98.50 - 98.85 - 99.22) of the Minuette operational scale forks.

The details of the #USDX movement are presented on the animated chart.

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Euro vs US dollar

The development of the movement of the single European currency EUR / USD from November 19, 2019 will be determined by the development and the direction of the breakdown of the range :

  • resistance level of 1.1065 (lower boundary of the ISL38.2 equilibrium zone of the Minuette operational scale forks);
  • support level of 1.1055 (upper boundary of the 1/2 Median Line Minuette channel)

With the breakdown of the resistance level of 1.1065 (ISL38.2 Minuette), the development of the single European currency movement will occur in the equilibrium zone (1.1065 - 1.1090 - 1.1115) of the Minuette operational scale forks, and with the breakdown of ISL61.8 Minuette (1.1115), the upward movement of the instrument price can continue to warning line UWL38.2 (1.1155) of the Minuette operational scale forks.

In contrast, with the breakdown of the support level of 1.1055 - the EUR / USD movement will be developed in the 1/2 Median Line channel again (1.1055 - 1.1038 - 1.1022) of the Minuette operational scale forks and in case of breakdown of the lower boundary (1.1022) of this channel, the downward movement of this currency instrument can be continued towards the goals: the start line SSL Minuette (1.0989 - local minimum) - the end Schiff Line Minuette (1.0973) - the upper boundary ISL38.2 (1.0973) equilibrium zones of the Minuette operational scale forks.

The details of the EUR / USD movement options are shown on the animated chart.

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Great Britain pound vs US dollar

From November 19, 2019, the development of Her Majesty's GBP / USD currency movement will be determined by the development and direction of the breakdown of the boundaries of the equilibrium zone (1.2930 - 1.2965 - 1.3000) of the Minuette operational scale forks. Look at the movement details within this zone on the animated chart.

The breakdown of the upper boundary of ISL61.8 (resistance level of 1.3000) of the equilibrium zone of the Minuette operational scale forks together with the update of the local maximum 1.3012- the development of the GBP / USD movement will be directed to the boundaries of the 1/2 Median Line channel (1.3040 - 1.3115 - 1.3210) of the Minuette operational scale forks.

In case of breakdown of the lower boundary of the ISL38.2 equilibrium zone of the forks of the Minuette operational scale forks (support level of 1.2930), the downward movement of Her Majesty's currency can continue to the boundaries of the 1/2 Median Line Minuette channel (1.2880 - 1.2850 - 1.2830) with the prospect of reaching the final Schiff Line Minuette (1.2795) and update the local minimum 1.2768.

The details of the GBP / USD movement can be seen on the animated chart.

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US dollar vs Japanese yen

The development of the USD / JPY urrency movement of the "country of the rising sun" from November 19, 2019 will be determined by the development and direction of the breakdown of the boundaries of the 1/2 Median Line channel (108.85 - 109.05 - 109.20) of the Minuette operational scale forks. The details are shown on the animated chart.

The breakdown of the lower boundary of the 1/2 Median Line Minuette channel (support level of 108.85) - downward movement the currency of the country of the "rising sun" can be continued towards the goals: the initial line SSL Minuette (108.55) - the control line LTL Minuette (108.35) - the local minimum 108.25 - the upper boundary of the ISL 38.2 (108.00) equilibrium zone of the Minuette operational scale forks.

Consecutive breakdown of resistance levels :

- 109.20 (upper boundary of the 1/2 Median Line Minuette channel);

- 109.25 (ISL38.2 Minuette);

- 109.35 (starting line SSL of the Minuette operational scale forks);

will confirm the further development of the USD / JPY movement in the equilibrium zone (109.25 - 109.50 - 109.80) of the Minuette operational scale forks with the prospect of reaching the warning line UWL38.2 (110.00) of the equilibrium zone of the Minuette operational scale forks.

We look at the details of the USD / JPY movement on the animated chart.

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The review is made without taking into account the news background. Thus, the opening of trading sessions of the main financial centers does not serve as a guide to action (placing orders "sell" or "buy").

The formula for calculating the dollar index :

USDX = 50.14348112 * USDEUR0.576 * USDJPY0.136 * USDGBP0.119 * USDCAD0.091 * USDSEK0.042 * USDCHF0.036.

where the power coefficients correspond to the weights of the currencies in the basket:

Euro - 57.6% ;

Yen - 13.6% ;

Pound Sterling - 11.9% ;

Canadian dollar - 9.1%;

Swedish Krona - 4.2%;

Swiss franc - 3.6%.

The first coefficient in the formula leads the index to 100 at the start date of the countdown - March 1973, when the main currencies began to be freely quoted relative to each other.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Change of seats: the euro is in the lead, and the dollar threatens to weaken

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US and European currencies began the new week without much stress, but many experts believe that this calm is temporary. In the current situation, the euro may benefit and bypass the dollar for some time. At the same time, the greenback should not lose sight of the threat of weakening, analysts said.

Earlier, the US currency was the undisputed leader in the EUR/USD pair. However, now the situation may not be in favor of the greenback: a number of currency strategists believe that he should fear a forced weakening by the Federal Reserve. Recall, recently, the Fed, in addition to lowering interest rates, launched a program to buy assets. The regulator met the wishes of US President Donald Trump, and the next step, according to experts, will be a forced "landing" of the dollar. It turns out that the greenback and the euro switched places for a while: now the single currency may be on the horse, and the dollar will have to be content with a secondary role.

Nevertheless, experts urge not to worry about the future fate of the greenback. Currency strategists at JP Morgan, the largest bank, are confident that the Fed's actions in this direction will not be too fast. They believe that upward pressure on short-term rates will continue, which will support the US currency. However, when viewed globally, weakening the greenback is a priority for the United States and will be addressed. It is still difficult to predict the methods of solution, nevertheless, experts believe that the weakening of the dollar has already begun due to manipulations in the financial markets.

Against this background, the European currency looks much more positive than the dollar. Last Friday, analysts recorded a rise in the euro due to an improvement in risk sentiment caused by optimism regarding the successful resolution of the trade dispute in the US and China. If the parties come to a compromise, then the chances of the euro's growth will double, analysts said. Risk appetite, played during the bidding process, could raise the single currency to 1.1600 next year, they said.

The EUR/USD pair was trading in a moderate range of 1.1062–1.1063 on Monday morning, November 18. However, after some time, the volatility in the pair intensified, which provoked a slight decrease.

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Later, the pair went to the level of 1.1060, but did not stay there long. Upward sentiment prevailed in the EUR/USD pair, and the pendulum swung upward. The classic pair reached 1.1067, but the desire for the next peaks was suspended.

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Currently, the pair has returned to its starting point, to 1.1061–1.1962. However, experts believe that the pair will not stay long in this range.

According to the calculations of analysts, in case of overcoming the level of 1.1069–1.1070, the pair will be able to achieve a high level of 1.1110–1.1120. However, a further fall will increase the risk of correction and collapse to 1.1030, experts said.

The situation in the financial market may be tense for the US dollar, and fortune will favor the euro for some time, analysts said. However, in the long run, chances that the greenback will recover are still higher than that of the euro. The single currency will retain its strength, but the dollar will not take offense, continuing to defend its position even in the event of a slight drawdown due to a possible weakening.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Noisy pound: British currency revitalized the market

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The pound began the new week quite rapidly, giving impetus to the slowly swaying financial market. The British currency's start was very productive, but experts believe that the current fuse will be short-lived.

The key growth drivers for sterling were statements by British Prime Minister Boris Johnson regarding the reduction of business taxes, as well as the high probability of the Conservative Party gaining a majority of votes in the upcoming elections. Recall that if Conservatives win, Johnson's deal, agreed with the leaders of the European Union, will receive a green light. This will be a landmark event for the entire British economy, and especially for the pound, analysts said.

The strong growth of the British currency was promoted not only by the high chances for success of the Conservatives, but also by a powerful inflow of capital into risky assets. According to experts, this has a very positive effect on the pound. Additional support for the sterling is the growth of oil quotes. According to preliminary calculations, in the near future, the price of Brent oil may reach $63.22 per barrel, and the price of the pound correlates with black gold.

Many market participants are confident that before the election in the UK, sterling will be in a narrow price range. Most market players take short positions in the pound and do not intend to change their strategy. On Monday, November 18, the British currency experienced significant volatility. The GBP/USD pair managed to rise to the levels of 1.2965-1.2966, but did not last long at this level.

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At the moment, the pair fell to a critical level of 1.2950, but was able to overcome the downward trend. In the future, the GBP/USD pair straightened, experts said.

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To date, the greenback and the pound have come to levels 1.2962–1.2963. Sometimes the upward movement in the GBP/USD pair is followed by a slight decline, but its range does not exceed the permissible.

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The current positive background helped the pound spread its wings and encouraged the market. At the moment, the prospects for the British currency are seen by experts in a rainbow light, but experienced market players advise to keep abreast and not give in to euphoria. In the wake of optimism, the pound is striving for new horizons, in particular, for the key level of 1.1300, but now this bar is almost impossible for it, experts said.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Gold walks along the edge of a cliff

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According to some analysts, the yellow precious metal entered the final stage of correction, which will be accompanied by a massive reduction in speculative long positions and will be completed by mid-December.

As expected, there was a rebound from the level of $1,450 per ounce, which was drowning around $1,475–1,485. What to expect next?

Ahead are several important events that could have a significant impact on the cost of precious metals, namely: the transition from December to January futures contract for gold on the COMEX exchange and the final meeting of the Federal Reserve this year.

It should be noted that the main speculative "longitude" in the gold market now sits in December contracts, the expiration of which should take place on the twentieth of November. Their elimination can lead to a significant drawdown of quotes. The main speculative volumes were taken in July this year at about $1,430–1,450 per ounce. In order to force speculators to liquidate their positions and shake up the market, and at the same time close their unprofitable short positions, market makers will have to sell the price below these levels or even below $1,400 per ounce.

The next Fed meeting will be held on December 11, at which the regulator may well take a break in the process of cutting interest rates. The US economy is still in good shape, and the US stock market is breaking historical records and is literally drowning in optimism.

By this time, news of the conclusion of the first phase of a trade agreement between Washington and Beijing may also arrive.

All these factors can play in favor of a decrease in the exchange rate of gold, which will be an excellent opportunity for purchases of precious metals.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Pound traps traders

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According to RBC Capital Markets, most of the risks associated with the December 12 early Parliament elections in the UK indicate that the pound is somewhat overbought.

"Market participants appear to be pricing in a high probability of the Conservative party gaining a majority in the new Parliament, with the pound reflecting the market's strong preference for this result," the experts said.

"However, there are many different uncertainties around this result. In particular, the Brexit Party may not keep its promise not to dispute places previously given to the Conservative Party," they added.

"In order to take away the majority from the Tories, which everyone expects, Labour will have a strong enough performance in only a small number of districts," RBC believes.

MUFG strategists adhere to a similar point of view, who believe that until the outcome of early elections in the UK on December 12 becomes clear, the risks for the pound are shifted downward.

"Market optimism about breaking Brexit's impasse has allowed the pound to ignore the latest weak data on inflation, economic growth and retail sales in the UK, but traders should not calm down. After weaker than expected growth in British GDP in the third quarter, another surprise in terms of a possible depreciation of the pound sterling could be increased pressure on the Bank of England to reduce interest rates next year," they said.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EURUSD: Bundesbank report, comments by Vasle, Cos and Lane, as well as Brexit positive

The euro-dollar pair is trading on Monday amid conflicting fundamental factors. Weak position of the US currency, as well as positive news flow regarding Brexit's prospects push the pair up, while the Bundesbank's pessimistic report and the dovish comments of the ECB representatives are holding back the pair's growth. Such a system of "checks and balances" retains the flat, although the general market sentiment is still in favor of the euro. There are several reasons for this.

The Bundesbank monthly economic report published today was indeed negative. The experts of the German central bank admitted that it is quite likely that the country's economy will slow down in the fourth quarter of this year. According to them, the German economy may enter a state of stagnation "to some extent". Such forecasts put background pressure on the euro, holding back the EUR/USD growth. But at the same time, the report of the German central bank could not deploy the pair. Firstly, the members of the Bundesbank noted that in the implementation of the worst-case scenario, the economic slowdown in Germany will be short-term and restrained. Secondly, the economists of the central bank urge not to worry about the onset of the recession. Thirdly, domestic demand remains high, and this fact is likely to maintain the momentum of economic growth in the country.

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In addition, the report released today was viewed by the market through the prism of recently released data on German GDP growth in the third quarter. Let me remind you that in annual terms, the German economy immediately grew by 1%, while experts expected a decrease of 0.1%. The German economy not only avoided the recession, but also showed the strongest growth dynamics over the past year. In addition, good data on the growth of the eurozone GDP were published last week - a key indicator in annual terms came out slightly better than expected.

In other words, one of today's central reports frighten EUR/USD traders, but, on the other hand, played the role of a deterrent. Also, investors drew attention to the dovish comments by member of the ECB Board of Governors Bostjan Vasle (head of the central bank of Slovenia). He said that the European regulator still retains the potential to further lower rates "in case of a change in the situation." Vasle also noted that he does not see any clear reasons for changing economic forecasts for the eurozone, especially amid weak industrial pace. However, he acknowledged that the service sector and the labor market show a "more positive picture." In turn, the head of the Bank of Spain, Pablo Hernandez de Cos, assured reporters that interest rates would remain at low levels "for a longer period." He also noted that geopolitical uncertainty could affect the financial stability of Spain.

Another ECB spokesman, Philip Lane, unexpectedly focused his attention on Brexit's prospects during his speech today. The chief economist at the European Central Bank admitted that the likelihood of a "hard" scenario has declined, although he is personally concerned about the effect of the "divorce proceedings" on Ireland. At the same time, he called on European countries to take appropriate steps with fiscal measures and structural reforms. Similar rhetoric was recently voiced by Christine Lagarde, for the first time acting as the head of the ECB. On the sidelines, she exerted verbal pressure on Germany and the Netherlands, urging them to use the surplus of their budgets.

Returning to today's events, it is worth noting that it was Brexit that provided indirect support to the European currency. The likelihood that Conservatives will win early elections to the House of Commons is growing every day, and so the likelihood of approval of a historic deal is growing. Today, Boris Johnson announced that each candidate from the Conservative Party signed a written pledge that, if elected, he would vote for the draft deal proposed by the prime minister with Brussels. According to the latest survey, almost 43% are ready to vote for Conservatives, only 28% for Labour, and 13% of the polled for Liberal Democrats. The growing likelihood of approval of the deal not only supports the pound, but also the European currency.

But the dollar is still under pressure. The crushing figures published last week on the growth of industrial production in the United States returned pessimism about the prospects for the US currency. In addition, recent events indicate that negotiations between the United States and China are quite difficult. The December meeting of superpower leaders is again in question. Donald Trump made it clear that he was not ready to satisfy Beijing's ultimatum (the abolition of September duties and the refusal of December), and China, in turn, said it was not going to commit itself to the annual acquisition of US $50 billion worth of agricultural products. If the parties can't find a compromise, the issue of reducing the Fed rate will return to the agenda again. At least Jerome Powell last week did not rule out this scenario.

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Thus, conflicting events for the pair still hold it within the range of 1.0980-1.1090. At the moment, the pair is heading to the upper boundary of the range (the option of testing the 11th figure is not excluded), but it will be difficult for the bulls to stay above the 1.1090 mark without appropriate support from the fundamental background.

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GBP/USD. November 18. Results of the day. Jeremy Corbyn doesn't know if he supports Brexit or not

4-hour timeframe

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Amplitude of the last 5 days (high-low): 112p - 58p - 41p - 63p - 52p.

Average volatility over the past 5 days: 65p (average).

The British pound sterling jumped early on Monday morning, based on something unknown, after which it eased and stopped all attempts to continue the illogical upward movement. We have already drawn the attention of traders to the fact that the pound is now growing solely on the positive expectations of most of the market regarding the outcome of the Parliament elections and, accordingly, Brexit. Simply put, everyone is waiting for the victory of the party of Boris Johnson and the implementation of Brexit until January 31, 2020. Everyone is waiting, but not everyone supports this option. As we have already written earlier, 12 December will choose not only politicians representing a particular party, but will also choose the option of implementing Brexit. As we recall, in the 2016 referendum, 48% of the residents of Great Britain did not support Brexit, which means that at least 48% of the inhabitants will not vote for Conservatives. However, the Conservative Party is more than enough for 52% of the vote, but it should be understood that a certain number of votes will be divided between other parties supporting Brexit, for example, selected by the party of Nigel Faraj. Thus, we still believe that the Johnson party will win the election, the number of deputy mandates is not enough to make decisions on their own.

Meanwhile, Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn gave an extensive interview on BBC. Corbyn was asked several times about his personal attitude towards Brexit and each time the opposition leader shied away from an answer. He said: "We are going to challenge the British people, and they will make their decision. Within three months, negotiations will be held on a reliable, reasonable option for the country to leave the EU and the question of a new referendum will be raised. " This was followed by reflection on the need for close relations with the European Union in the future, as well as on "sweet" trade deals with Donald Trump and the destruction of the national health system, as the "prime minister wants". Recall that earlier Corbyn was repeatedly blamed for the lack of personal opinion on the issue of the country's exit from the EU. Many experts believe that it is precisely Corbyn's position that does not allow him to compete with Johnson's party. However, if you fantasize, what position Corbyn can take. To report, what supports Brexit, but on different terms? Report that does not support Brexit? The first option will raise the question, but "on what other conditions and how to achieve them?" In the second, the Laborites will lose a certain part of the electorate. Thus, it seems that the distribution of forces in Parliament after the next extraordinary elections will not change much.

In addition to the foregoing, we would like to draw the attention of traders to the Brexit party, which generously refused to compete with the Conservatives. We would like to ask a question: which of the political forces is willing to give up several dozen seats in Parliament? Even if there is a certain prize from the Conservative Party. Nigel Faraj, as the initiator of Brexit, can also count on a certain number of votes, between 15-20%, and although it is less than that of the Labour and Conservatives, it is still a rather serious influence on the future policy of Great Britain. Moreover, the more votes Faraj's party members will gain, the more weight they will have in the Parliament and, accordingly, will be able to join a coalition later with the same Conservatives to support Brexit Boris Johnson. Thus, we believe that the mood of Nigel Faraj before the election may still change.

What is the result? The pound is growing and has reached the past local high, which the bulls need to overcome in order to be able to continue the growth of the British currency. Thus, much more will depend on technical factors. Not a single important macroeconomic report has been published today either in the United States or in the UK, and tomorrow a similar situation awaits us. Thus, there is no fundamental background; there is only the mood of traders and technical factors. Technique now speaks in favor of continued growth of the pound/dollar pair. The Ichimoku indicator formed a golden cross, and traders managed to overcome the resistance level of 1.2951. Bollinger Bands are expanding upward, which also speaks in favor of the resumption of the upward trend.

Trading recommendations:

GBP/USD completed the lateral movement. Thus, traders are now advised to consider buying the British pound with a target at the resistance level of 1,3001. However, we recommend opening long positions in small lots, since from a fundamental point of view there are still few reasons for the pair to grow. It is recommended to return to selling no earlier than when bears consolidate below the Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B. lines

Explanation of the illustration:

Ichimoku indicator:

Tenkan-sen is the red line.

Kijun-sen is the blue line.

Senkou Span A - light brown dotted line.

Senkou Span B - light purple dashed line.

Chikou Span - green line.

Bollinger Bands Indicator:

3 yellow lines.

MACD indicator:

Red line and bar graph with white bars in the indicator window.

Support / Resistance Classic Levels:

Red and gray dotted lines with price symbols.

Pivot Level:

Yellow solid line.

Volatility Support / Resistance Levels:

Gray dotted lines without price designations.

Possible price movement options:

Red and green arrows.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR/USD. November 18. Results of the day. The Bank of Slovenia Chairman Bostjan Vasle hints at ECB readiness to lower rates

4-hour timeframe

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Amplitude of the last 5 days (high-low): 27p - 36p - 25p - 39p - 42p.

Average volatility over the past 5 days: 34p (low).

The EUR/USD currency pair spent the first trading day of the new week in quiet trading with the same low volatility that the pair has been pursuing in recent weeks. Only in the middle of the US trading session did we receive a more or less serious movement, an upward movement, which fully corresponds to the scenario that we already described at the end of last week and which provides for the euro's corrective upward movement based on purely technical factors. We still believe that the paradoxical situation in which the euro/dollar pair found itself did not allow it to continue the downward trend, which, from a fundamental point of view, was much more logical. At the moment, the pair has worked out the resistance level of 1.1076 and will try to gain a foothold above it in order to continue its daily 30-point upward movement.

The calendar of macroeconomic events of today did not contain a single publication. Several representatives of the European Central Bank made speeches during the day, but it is hard to imagine that the movement seen at the US trading session is a reaction to these statements. At least, if traders paid attention to these speeches, then they are unlikely to be very impressed. The Bank of Slovenia Chairman Bostjan Vasle said today that growth in the eurozone has stabilized, that the package of measures taken by the central bank at the penultimate meeting has an impact on the economy in line with the expectations of the ECB Monetary Committee. Vasle also said what we mentioned earlier: in order to fully appreciate the effect of the measures taken by the regulator, it may take much more time than two months. And recall, the new stage of the quantitative incentive program began to take effect, and it was on November 1, not even a month has passed since it functions. At the same time, we personally do not see any particular signs of a recovery in the EU economy or a slowdown in the fall of economic indicators. It should be understood that any senior official can rarely openly declare that the economy will continue to slow down. Why once again excite the markets and put them in a state of panic? Indeed, such words can not only cause panic in the foreign exchange market, they can reduce the influx of investments in EU countries, adversely affect retail sales, personal expenses of EU residents, who will save money "under the pillow" in case of crisis. But the opposite statements from the heads of central banks just have a logical basis. For example, to assure and convince markets and individual market entities that "the situation is under control" and "there is nothing that the central bank could not cope with." In principle, these are exactly the words we heard today from Vasle. He also added that in the first half of 2020, weak growth in industry can continue, while in the services and labor markets the situation is much better. However, how can one not recall the words of Mario Draghi at one of his last speeches as the ECB head that a recession in industry could pull other sectors of the economy. At the end of his speech, Vasle noted that the central bank's September decision is working, and if the situation worsens, "there is still room for progress." Any trader saw a hint in this message that the central bank is ready to lower rates further, since this is the most effective tool for influencing the economy. And, from our point of view, it will be necessary to act in the near future, since inflation, with the current rate of impact of the ECB, may soon "go under water" ...

Well, and how not to note the fact that even though Vasle's speech was dovish, if you look closely, traders still saw in it or wanted to see positive notes. Thus, the euro continues to continue weak correctional growth in the upper line of the Ichimoku cloud, which is a strong resistance. Also, resistance levels of 1.1101 and 1.1104 now lie near this line, which traders also have to overcome if they want to continue to buy the euro. We can say that it is around the level of 1.1100 that the euro/dollar pair's fate for the next few days will be decided.

Almost the only factor that can now provide indirect support to the euro is another "dead end" in the negotiations between China and the United States. Here, everything, as in the Brexit process, all the negotiators assure that there is progress, but in fact the United States refuse to satisfy the ultimatum of China on the abolition of duties already introduced and the refusal to introduce the December package of duties, China refuses to buy agricultural products from the United States for a strictly fixed amount each year. That's all progress ... Although the US dollar usually paid little attention to negotiation difficulties, it can now respond to them with very weak volatility.

Trading recommendations:

EUR/USD continues to move up. Thus, now it is possible to consider purchases of the euro, but only in small lots, since the current movement is still identified as corrective. We recommend to wait for purchases until the 1,1101 level is overcome. It is recommended to return to purchasing the US currency no earlier than the reconsolidation of the euro/dollar pair below the Kijun-sen critical line with a target of the support level of 1,1008.

Explanation of the illustration:

Ichimoku indicator:

Tenkan-sen is the red line.

Kijun-sen is the blue line.

Senkou Span A - light brown dotted line.

Senkou Span B - light purple dashed line.

Chikou Span - green line.

Bollinger Bands Indicator:

3 yellow lines.

MACD indicator:

Red line and bar graph with white bars in the indicator window.

Support / Resistance Classic Levels:

Red and gray dotted lines with price symbols.

Pivot Level:

Yellow solid line.

Volatility Support / Resistance Levels:

Gray dotted lines without price designations.

Possible price movement options:

Red and green arrows.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com