Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for August 21, 2014

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Today's support and resistance levels:


R3: 138.45


R2: 138.01


R1: 137.77


Current spot: 137.69


S1: 137.58


S2: 137.45


S3: 137.37


Technical summary:


The break above 137.70 has left us with two opposite sceanrios. The first scenario is, that an expanded ending diagonal is unfolding (we have overlapping wave four and wave one. The only pattern that allows overlaps is the ending diagonal). If an expanding ending diagonal is unfolding, the we should see resistance at 138.01 to protect the upside for a decline below support at 136.89 confirming one final decline lower to 134.34 to end the correction from 145.69. The second scenario tells us, that the correction from 145.69 ended at 135.73 and that a new impulsive rally could be unfolding. Looking at the structure of the rally from 135.73, we prefer the expanded ending diagonal scenario for one final decline towards 134.34, where wave C will be equal in length to wave A.


Trading recommendation:


Our stop at 137.75 has been hit for a small loss. We will stay neutral for now and let the market show us its real hand.


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Technical analysis of AUD/USD for August 21, 2014

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Trading recommendations :



  • The resistance of AUD/USD pair has set at the price of 0.9300 and the support, at the 0.9238 price. So, according to the previous events, the AUD/USD pair is going to move between the resistance and the support. As a rule, history will probably repeat itself at this level again. Therefore, we expect a range about 62 pips on August 21, 2014. Accordingly, if the trend fails to close below the level of 0.9238, then it will be a good opportunity to buy above 0.9240 with the first target at 0.9280, then it will continue straight towards 0.9300. Notwithstanding, the stop loss should always be taken in account because it should never exceed your maximum exposure amounts. Consequently, the best location to set your stop loss should be placed below the level of 0.9210.


Notes :



  • The Risk of 62 pips must make a profit of 93 pips.

  • The value of 50% Fibonacci retracement levels is: 0.9371. The strong resistance this week.

  • The volatility: 122.45. As a rule, the market is highly volatile if the previous day had a huge volatility.

  • The Support will set at the level of 0.9238. And the double bottom will set at the price of 0.9243.

  • The resistances will set at the levels of 0.9300 and 0.9340.


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Technical analysis of USD/CAD for August 21, 2014

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Overview :



  • The USD/CAD pair rebounded at the level of 1.0950, and showed signs of strength after it. Additionally, the resistance was broken and turned to support at the same area (1.0942). Equally important, the price set above the support since last week. Consequently, the pair has already formed the strong support at 1.0950. It should also be noted that the double bottom is going to set around this area. Furthermore, the price has still been trapped between 1.0950 and the double top (1.0985) in H4 chart. Therefore, the USD/CAD pair started showing the signs of the bullish market. So, the market indicates the bullish opportunity at the level of 1.0950 with the first target of 1.0985 (double top), and continues towards the level of 1.1030 in order to test the weekly resistance 1. On the other hand, the stop loss should always be taken into account. Therefore, it will wise to set your stop loss at the 1.0925 price.


Intraday technical levels :


Date:21/08/2014


Pair:USD/CAD



  • R3: 1.1024

  • R2: 1.0998

  • R1: 1.0983

  • PP: 1.0957

  • S1: 1.0942

  • S2: 1.0916

  • S3: 1.0901


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Daily analysis of major pairs for August 21, 2014

EUR/USD: Because of the stamina in the Greenback, this trading instrument has no change of going upwards. In fact, any rally that is seen in the market is an opportunity to open another short trade, selling at a slightly higher price.


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USD/CHF: We are still talking about the stamina in the Greenback: when the EUR/USD pair goes down, USD/CHF goes up. Therefore, it is no surprise that the USD/CHF pair is trading above the support level at 0.9100. The next target is the resistance level at 0.9150.


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GBP/USD: There is still a Bearish Confirmation Pattern on the Cable. So, long trades are not sensible yet. A trend is not over until it is actually over. It is possible that the price would test the accumulation territory at 1.6650.


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USD/JPY: The strength in the USD is clearly visible. For example, the USD/CHF and the USD/JPY have been racing northwards, and the trend is likely to continue. Moreover, more fundamental figures are expected today and they would have impact on the markets. This pair has gone upwards by up to 160 pips this week. The supply level at 104.00 would soon be tested after the current shallow pullback finishes its course. That supply level could even be breached to the upside.


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EUR/JPY: On the whole, the Euro remains weak. However, as a result of more weakness in the Yen (the Yen is weaker than the Euro), this cross has broken out to the upside. The movement above the demand zone at 137.50 means the trend is now completely bullish.


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Technical analysis of Silver for Aug 21, 2014


Technical outlook and chart setups:


1. Silver dips to the $19.31 levels today, this was a possibility discussed earlier. The current level is fibonacci 0.786 support of the rally between $18.60 and $21.70. A bullish reversal here would keep the uptrend intact for the metal.


2. Support is seen at $19.00, followed by $18.60, while resistance is seen at $20.00, followed by $21.20, $21.70, $22.30 and higher respectively.


3. The structure indicates that Silver is expected to rebound from the current levels.


Trading recommendations:


Remain long, stop below $19.00, target is open.


Good luck!


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#USDX Technical analysis for August 21, 2014

The Dollar index remains in up trend. However the pull back that is currently unfolding may be a part of wave 4 before a new high for wave 5. Price is still inside the upward sloping channel. Price is above the Ichimoku cloud support and bulls continue to have the upper hand.


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A short-term reversal in the 4 hour chart may imply a pull back towards 82.15 is quite possible to test the lower channel boundaries. The trend remains bullish. Short-term support is at 82.15 and 82.05. Resistance at 82.35 and 82.50. I believe a pull back now is just another buying opportunity.


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In the daily chart, I show in a more clear way the bigger picture. We are at the final stages of the rise from 79.75 and bulls should keep their stops tight. The trend remains up. My target is at 82.60 as long as price is above 81.70. Breaking below 81.70 will confirm that the upward move is complete.


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Gold Wave analysis for August 21, 2014

Gold price has broken our support level at $1,290-95 and has pushed below $1,280 as many stops were triggered. Strong support is found at $1,270 and this will be crucial for bulls. The bullish bias is still quite possible but technically the trend remains bearish. Bulls need to retake $1,307 in order to regain the upper hand. Below is the 4 hour chart that depicts my new elliott wave view in Gold.


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Price made a new lower low. This has triggered many stops and many long positions have closed. However, price is still trading around the 61.8% retracement. By this alternative new wave count, we could still see prices reverse upwards towards $1,350. Technically, the trend remains bearish as price is making lower lows and lower highs and is below the Ichimoku cloud. We need to see 5 waves up of a minute degree in order to talk about a possible upward reversal.


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Gold price has broken below the Ichimoku cloud in the daily chart as shown above. Important trend line support is found at $1,270. This is the last chance for bulls. I give more possibilities of an upward reversal even if Gold price made a new low below $1,280. However, a buy signal will be given only if a reversal is confirmed. This buy signal will be given if price breaks above $1,305 on a daily closing basis. Breaking below the red trend line will open the way for a push lower towards $1,240.


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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for August 21, 2014

General overview for 21/08/2014 09:50 CET


Despite hitting the target zone, the market is not going down in the impulsive manner. So, the outlook has been a little changed to put the emphasis on more complex wave 2 of 3 progression in shape of the WXY complex corrective structure. A very important level that will act as an invalidation line is the level of 138.02. Any violation of this levels means the bearish impulsive scenario is invalidated and higher prices will be seen soon. Otherwise, the outlook is still bearish as long as this level holds.


Support/Resistance:


138.02 - Swing High| Invalidation Level|


137.70 - WR1


137.45 - Intraday Support


137.04 - Weekly Pivot


Trading recommendations:


Please refrain from trading until a clear pattern occurs.


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Technical analysis of Gold for Aug 21, 2014


Technical outlook and chart setups:


1. Gold has dropped to the $1,271.00 levels before pulling back again into $1,282.00 as seen here. The metal is still forming a base to stage a rally higher in the coming sessions. $1,271.00 looks like potential bottom formation. Recommendations are to remain long, risk being at the $1,270.00 levels.


2. Support is at $1,260.00, followed by $1,240.00 and lower, while resistance is at $1,322.00, followed by $1,340.00 and higher respectively.


3. The structure indicates that Gold still remains constructive for an extended rally towards $1,350.00 and higher.


Trading recommendations:


Remain long, stop at $1,270.00, target is open.


Good luck!


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Technical analysis of USD/CAD for August 21, 2014

General overview for 21/08/2014 09:20 CET


The five wave impulsive development looks completed at the current levels and it has been labeled as red wave 5. The next cycle should be a corrective downside cycle. Please, remember that the wave -v- might get extended a little bit more if the level of 1.0930 is not broken first. The alternative labeling indicates an even more extended upward wave progression as long as the level of 1.0858 is not clearly violated. Please, notice that the bearish divergence on the momentum oscillator supports the bearish case, but any breakout higher above the level of 1.0985 is bullish and next resistance is at the level of 1.1020.


Support/Resistance:


1.0985 - Swing High | Intraday Resistance|


1.0960 - Intraday Support


1.0945 - WR1


1.0930 - 1.0935 - Supply Breakthrough Zone


1.0901 - Weekly Pivot


Trading recommendations:


The buy orders from the beginning of the week should be closed now as the target level has been hit. Only a clear breakout above the recent swing high should be bought with target at the level of 1.1020.


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Short-term analysis of USD/SGD for August 21, 2014

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Short term view


The pair has been in a downtrend for 8 months. It took a support at the previous swing lows of 1.2317 and 1.2340. The pair held that support and shifted its mode to corrective rally. On the higher side, it has resistance at 1.2527 (50WSma). A weekly close above that will attract attention in the short term towards 1.2560, 1.26, and 1.2626 levels, may be even 1.2725.


Support 1.24 1.2340 1.2317


Resistance 1.2527 1.26 1.2725


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The pair has been rejected thrice at 200DEma for 4 months. In early Asia's session, the pair approached the 200DEMA and started looking back. It has a strong resistance at 1.2510. A daily close is above 1.2510; we can see a huge run towards the 1.2560, 1.2571, and 1.2626 levels.


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Intraday trading recommendations on GBP/JPY for August 21, 2014

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The pair touched the 100DMA in yesterday's session and closed next to it. In today's session, the pair breached the 100DMA and 38.2 correction fib level, but rejected from there and hit downside support at 20DSma and 172.20, trading at the 172.07 levels. On the down side, it has support at the 171.60 level.


Support 170.73


Resistance 172.61


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The prices are closed and trading above 12ema. The prices gave an upside breakout from a 20-day descending trend line. It has a parallel resistance at 172.65 above this, it can fly up to the 172.90 and 173.50 levels. We recommend buying only above the 172.65 levels. On the down side, it has support at the 171.78, 171.55 and 171.35 levels.


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Intraday trading recommendations on EUR/JPY for August 21, 2014

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The pair touches exactly the 50DSma in early Asian session. It is testing its fortune for about 2 and half months. The descending trend line is above this; 7-month broken descending triangle support will act as a major hurdle in the near/short term. Until the pair closes above 138.60, selling on an up move will mint money.


Support 137.10


Resistance 137.75


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The prices are closed above the hourly key moving averages. The price gave an upside 3-week triangle. On the upside, if the pair manages to trade above 137.70, it can fly up to 138 and 138.40. Safe trades can buy only above the 137.75 levels. On the down side, it found support at the 137.45, 137.25, 137.20, and 137.10 levels. The intra week support existed at the 136.75-136.80 levels.


Safe buy above 137.75.


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Intraday trading recommendations on GOLD for August 21, 2014

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The tone of US economy made the US dollar stronger. The Federal minutes pressure the gold to give a bearish breakout from the 3-month support trend line. As we recommended in the article from August 18th, until the metal breaks the open high strategy at $1,303.50, it has made a low at $1,287.60. On the down side, it has strong support at $1,284 (200DSma) below this. $1,280 is the trend change level towards $1,275, $1,270 $1,265, and $1,261 levels. The Quantitative easing will end this October and the Federal Reserve is going to raise the interest rates quite soon. This provides a pessimism towards gold. The heavenly bids didn't find support the gold at the lower levels too.


A daily close below $1,284, open gates for $1,270 and $1,265. - Pending


A weekly close below $1,292, the short-term turns down. - Pending


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In today's session, the metal opened higher again at the $1,291.30 levels. Until the metal breaches $1,291.50, sellers will mint the money.


For an hourly trading perspective, the metal prices are closed below and trading below the 12ema. Until the prices close below the $1,294, the hourly trading will give money only for sellers.


Resistance $1,294, $1,297, and $1,3.


Sell until it trades below $1,294.


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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for August 21, 2014

In Asia, Japan will not release any economic data, but the US will release a range of economic data such as Unemployment Claims, Flash Manufacturing PMI, Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, Existing Home Sales, CB Leading Index m/m, Natural Gas Storage. So, the USD/JPY pair will likey to move with low volatility during the Asian session, but with low to medium volatility during the US session.

TODAY's TECHNICAL LEVELS:

Resistance. 3: 104.42.

Resistance. 2: 104.22.

Resistance. 1: 104.01.

Support. 1: 103.76.

Support. 2: 103.56.

Support. 3: 103.35. Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.


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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for August 21, 2014

!EU.jpg When the European market opens, some economic news will be released such as French Flash Manufacturing PMI, French Flash Services PMI, German Flash Manufacturing PMI, German Flash Services PMI, Flash Manufacturing PMI, Flash Services PMI, Consumer Confidence. The US will release the economic data as well such as the Unemployment Claims, Flash Manufacturing PMI, Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, Existing Home Sales, CB Leading Index m/m, Natural Gas Storage. So, amid the reports, EUR/USD will move low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY's TECHNICAL LEVELS:

Breakout BUY Level: 1.3321.

Strong Resistance:1.3313.

Original Resistance: 1.3300.

Inner Sell Area: 1.3287.

Target Inner Area: 1.3256.

Inner Buy Area: 1.3225.

Original Support: 1.3212.

Strong Support: 1.3199.

Breakout SELL Level: 1.3191. Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.


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Daily analysis of USDX for August 21, 2014

Daily chart: The USDX has had a strong bullish momentum above the level of 82.00. So, this instrument is likely to rise soon to the resistance level of 82.51. If the USDX manages to make a breakout at that level, it's expected to rise to the resistance level of 83.22. However, the USDX could begin to form a bullish pattern. The MACD indicator remains in the positive territory.


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H4 chart: The USDX is very close to the bullish trend line at the level of 82.60. If the USDX manages to make a breakout at that level, it is expected to rise to the level of 83.00 in the medium term. The USDX is being kept above the 200-day moving average. The MACD indicator remains in the positive territory.


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H1 chart: The USDX has formed a fractal close to the resistance level of 82.02. If USDX manages to make a breakout at that level, the next target would be the resistance level of 82.32, which would be a bullish consolidation, since the USDX remains above the 200 SMA. The USDX is entering the overbought area and is staying in the negative territory.


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Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place buy (long) orders only if the USD Index breaks with a bullish candlestick; the resistance level is at 82.32, take profit is at 82.50, and stop loss is at 82.15.


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Daily analysis of GBP/USD for August 21, 2014

Daily chart: The GBP/USD pair continues strenghtening the bearish trend below the moving average of 200. This pair is likely to fall to the support level of 1.6540. If the GBP/USD pair manages to make a breakout at that level, it would be expected to fall to the level of 1.6447. For now, it is advisable to wait for the GBP/USD pair to make a breakout at that level, to continue placing sell orders. The indicator MACD is staying in the negative territory.


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H4 chart: The GBP/USD pair held a pullback at the resistance level of 1.6644. Now, this pair is trying to make a breakout at the support level of 1.6583. If the GBP/USD pair manages to make a breakout at the 1.6553 level, it would be expected to fall to the support level of 1.6464.


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H1 chart: This pair has filled the bullish gap left open this week. So, now the GBP/USD pair is trying to form a higher low pattern below the resistance level of 1.6629. If the GBP/USD pair manages to make a breakout at the support level of 1.6578, it would be expected to fall down to the level of 1.6544. The MACD inciator is entering the negative territory and oversold levels.


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Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place sell (short) orders only if the GBP/USD pair breaks a bearish candlestick; the support level is at 1.6578, take profit is at 1.6544, and stop loss is at 1.6612.


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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations on GBP/USD for August 20, 2014

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Breakdown of the DEMAND level around 1.6975 allowed a quick decline of the GBP/USD pair towards the price zone of 1.6800-1.6820.


When retesting the price zone of 1.6800-1.6820, considerable bullish recovery took place. This corrective movement was stopped below 1.6880 when the bears applied considerable bearish pressure.


Last week, the GBP/USD pair declined again towards 1.6770. This came after the release of the British manufacturing data, which came below expectations.


In case the bears keep applying bearish pressure, we expect the pair to keep fixating below the price level of 1.6760 (the previously broken top established in February 2014 ).


This exposed price levels around 1.6620 to be visited shortly after. The next DEMAND level to meet the pair is located around 1.6547 where a previous bottom was established in April.


On the other hand, failure of the bears to fixate below 1.6600 (the lower limit of the ongoing bearish channel) will probably allow the bulls to initiate a bullish corrective movement towards 1.6780 and 1.6820.


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The price zone of 1.6830 - 1.6800 remains a significant zone as it corresponds to the previous consolidation zone established in June.


However, 4H fixation below this zone exposed the price levels around 1.6600 where the lower limit of the current bearish channel is located.


Note that the GBP/USD pair has been down-trending for almost 20 days without significant correction.


Thus, any bullish fixation above 1.6680-1.6700 hinders the current steep trend allowing a deeper bullish correction to occur.


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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations on EUR/USD for August 20, 2014

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The price zone of 1.3800-1.3880 (dotted on the chart) provided considerable SUPPLY for the EUR/USD pair. This price zone managed to pause the bullish momentum leading to obvious breakdown of the depicted bullish trend line.


Bearish pressure which originated off 1.3650 has applied enough pressure at the price level of 1.3560 (corresponding to the previous prominent bottom). Since then, the pair has been down-trending within the depicted bearish channel.


Again, the EUR/USD pair shooted towards 1.3330 (prominent bottom established on November 8, 2013) once more after the initial testing that followed the release of the initial readings of the Italian GDP last Thursday.


Bullish engulfing daily candlestick was expressed on Friday indicating upcoming bullish correction. However, bearish breakout of the consolidation range took place yesterday.


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Bearish breakdown of the price level of 1.3430 allowed the pair to establish a consolidation zone down to 1.3330. Since then, the EUR/USD pair has been trapped inside this price range.


The short-term bearish trend remains intact as long as the bears keep defending the price zone of 1.3420-1.3450.

The EUR/USD pair is expected to meet an Intraday DEMAND level around 1.3275 where the lower limit of the sub-channel is located. Price action should be watched today.


In case the bears keep applying significant bearish pressure, the EUR/USD pair has Intraday DEMAND levels located around 1.3325, 1.3235, and 1.3215 respectively (Fibonacci Expansion Levels).


On the other hand, bullish fixation above 1.3440 is essential to acquire a momentum strong enough to initiate a bullish corrective move towards 1.3530.


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GBP/USD intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for August 20, 2014

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One month ago, the bears initiated a bearish trend off price levels around 1.7150-1.7190. Since then the GBP/USD pair has been declining within the depicted bearish channel.


The price levels of 1.7050 - 1.7000 failed to provide enough support for the pair. Hence, the bears had a potential bearish target around 1.6970 and then 1.6920.


DAILY fixation below 1.6980-1.7000 applied intensive bearish pressure on the price zone of 1.6920-1.6900 leading to its breakdown as well.


Bullish recovery was evident around 1.6800 - 1.6820 manifested during the previous visit (Monday's daily candlestick)


However, this price zone failed to provide support during the 2nd visit that took place on Friday exposing the price level of 1.6765 for retesting.


Price levels around 1.6800-1.6820 offered a valid SELL entry. SL should be lowered to 1.6680 to secure our profits.


Bearish targets should have been reached initially around 1.6670 and then 1.6625 where the lower limit of the ongoing bearish 4H channel is roughly located.


The next bearish destination is located around 1.6580 in case the bears keep developing such bearish momentum. Price action action should be watched for a possible BUY entry.


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