USD/CAD approaching 1st resistance, potential drop !

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Trading Recommendation

Entry: 1.4165

Reason for Entry: 61.8% fibonacci retracement

Take Profit :1.3996

Reason for Take Profit: Horizontal swing low support , 61.8% fibonacci retracement

Stop Loss: 1.4292

Reason for Stop loss: 100% fibonacci retracement, 50% fibonacci retracement

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Pound - bearish pin bar present on the trend

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Good afternoon traders! A trading idea for the GBP/USD pair.

An interesting event occurred yesterday via "Stop Hunting" method. During the American session, the pound filled an intermediate area under the round level of 1.24, and made a quick false break downwards in the evening.

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Quotes went to the best prices, relative to the general plan of lowering the instrument. Thus, a classic "pin-bar" setup appeared on D1 yesterday, which is an "invader" of liquidity and strengthens the signal to continue the trend:

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Goals:

1. Weekly low at 1.2250.

2. Monthly low at 1.2150.

Short scenario will be canceled at a break of 1.24 down.

Good luck!

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Oil - growth attempts

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US futures jumped by almost 20% on Thursday. Trump's tweet raised tensions between Iran and the US, jeopardizing oil transportation in the Middle East.

The oil market arose with US President Donald Trump's announcement that he instructed the US Navy to fire at Iranian ships if harassed. Later, he added that the rules of warfare remained unchanged.

Iran's Revolutionary Guard head said that Tehran will destroy US warships if it threatens security.

According to Warren Patterson of ING, these statements "exacerbate tensions between the US and Iran. However, given the oversaturation of the oil market, it is difficult to see how this will provide long-term support to the market if the situation does not worsen further."

Oil rallies to accelerate production cuts in OPEC countries:

Kuwait already began cutting oil supplies to the international market, much earlier than the May 1 schedule.

Oil Minister Khaled Al-Fadhel said that the country "felt responsible for responding to market conditions" so it acted on its own. However, he did not specify whether Kuwait had reduced production by the full amount promised, or just a part of it.

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Kuwait is the first and largest oil producer in the Persian Gulf to announce that it already reduced production ahead of schedule.

Whether this will be enough to compensate the declining demand is still unclear.

Russia, on the other hand, is looking for other options and may even resort to burning its own oil. Its production has not changed much from March to the present.

State-owned Saudi Aramco refused to comment whether the company plans to cut production by May 1.

Meanwhile, Iraq, OPEC's second-largest producer after Saudi Arabia, has no plans to start production cuts, according to Alaa al-Yassiri, acting CEO of Oil Marketing Co.

UAE Department of Energy officials were also not available for comment.

Among manufacturers outside the Persian Gulf, Algeria notified OPEC + ministers that its supply cuts would begin immediately. Nigeria, on the other hand, is already cutting production because of declining storage space.

Al-Fadhel said it is important for all parties of the OPEC + reduction agreement to fulfill their commitments.

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Indicator analysis. Daily review on GBP / USD for April 24, 2020

Trend analysis (Fig. 1).

Today, the upward pullback of the pair is likely to continue towards the lower fractal 1.2247 (presented in a red dashed line) with the first target of 1.2399 - a 38.2% retracement level (presented in a red dashed line). In case of breaking this level up, the price may continue to move upward with the target of 1.2447 - a 50.0% rollback level (presented in a red dashed line).

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Fig. 1 (daily chart).

Comprehensive analysis:

- Indicator analysis - up;

- Fibonacci levels - up;

- Volumes - up;

- Candlestick analysis - down;

- Trend analysis - up;

- Bollinger Lines - up;

- Weekly schedule - up.

General conclusion:

Today, the price may continue to move downward with the target at the lower fractal 1.2247 (presented in a red dashed line). In case of breaking through this level, the price may begin to move upward with the first target of 1.2399 - a 38.2% retracement level (presented in a red dashed line).

Another possible scenario is a bearish trend from the lower fractal 1.2247 (presented in a red dashed line) with the target of 1.2176 - a 38.2% retracement level (presented in a blue dashed line). If this level is broken down, the price may continue to move downward with the target of 1.2031 - a 50.0% rollback level (presented in a blue dashed line). This scenario is only possible with negative news for the pound.

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Indicator analysis. Daily review on EUR / USD for April 24, 2020

Trend analysis (Fig. 1).

Today, the bearish trend may continue from the level of 1.0779 (closing of yesterday's candle) with the first target at 1.0711 - an 85.4% retracement level (presented in a blue dashed line). When this level is broken down, the price may continue to move downward with the target at the support line 1.0700 (presented in a red bold line).

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Fig. 1 (daily chart).

Comprehensive analysis:

- Indicator analysis - down;

- Fibonacci levels - down;

- Volumes - down;

- Candlestick analysis - down;

- Trend analysis - down;

- Bollinger lines - down;

- Weekly schedule - down.

General conclusion:

Today, the price may continue to move downward with the target at the support line 1.0700 (presented in a red bold line). A rollback is possible from this line, but this scenario is possible only with negative news for the dollar.

Another possible scenario is a bearish trend from the support line 1.0700 (presented in a red bold line) with the target at the lower fractal 1.0636 (presented in a blue dashed line), but this scenario is possible only with positive news for the dollar.

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Elliott wave analysis of GBP/JPY for April 24 - 2020

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GBP/JPY has seen a minor consolidation and moved towards the top of the resistance-area between 133.28 - 133.64 before moving lower again. We are looking for a break below support at 131.88. If the pair reaches this level, it may decline from the wave iv peak at 135.72. Ultimately wave v should move below the low of wave iii at 123.99 and once this low has been surpassed all requirements to the decline from 147.96 will have been fulfilled and a long-term bottom could be formed.

Only an unexpected break above 134.95 will question our continued bearish count and force a revision of our count.

R3: 134.95

R2: 134.12

R1: 133.68

Pivot: 133.28

S1: 132.52

S2: 131.88

S3: 131.34

Trading recommendation:

We are short GBP from 134.35 with our stop placed at 135.00. Upon a break below 131.88 we will move our stop lower to 134.00.

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USD/CHF IPDA 60 Day Ranges Price Movement For April 24, 2020

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On the 4-hour chart, we can see that USD/CHF is moving away from the 0.9722 level. The pair is trying to break 0.9797. If the pair breaks this level, there is higher probability that USD/CHF may rise to 0.9876. The scenario will be cancelled if the pair does not retrace bellow the 0.9654 level.

(Disclaimer)

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GBP/JPY approaching resistance, potential drop!

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Trading Recommendation

Entry: 134.713

Reason for Entry: horizontal swing high resistance, 2.618% fibonacci extension, 50% fibonacci retracement

Take Profit : 124.619

Reason for Take Profit: horizontal swing low support

Stop Loss: 139.311

Reason for Stop loss: Horizontal pullback resistance, 61.8% fibonacci retracement

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Technical Analysis of ETH/USD for 24/04/2020:

Crypto Industry News:

Smart contacts at Ethereum have risen to almost 2 million compared to the previous month, where network deployment costs are still low. In March, the Ethereum network reached 1,971,632 million, which means an increase of 75% compared to February.It is worth noting that this level coincided with the low cost of implementation on Ethereum, where developers spent an average of $ 11.6 thousand. This suggests that the popularity of the Ethereum platform is increasing, which means strong support for the upcoming Ethereum 2.0 upgrade.

Although in March, it rose to a record number of smart contracts, however there was no noticeable increase in the number of transactions, which may suggest that many contracts are not used or do not translate into increased user involvement.

The previous record level took place in November 2018, when the number of implemented contracts reached almost 1.5 million, after which it fell to an average of 670 thousand in 2019.In the Ethereum 2.0 roadmap, created by Ethereum's founder Vitalik Buterin, the network is configured to switch from Proof-of-Work to Proof-of-Stake. This mechanism can remove the scalability problem that currently discourages many programmers from deploying the network. Recent information on Ethereum 2.0 may prove to be a driving force that breathes new life into the popular blockchain platform.

Technical Market Outlook:

The ETH/USD bulls has managed to push the price towards the level of $186, which is very close to the key short-term resistance level. This level was broken as the new local high was made at the level of $193.78 before the pair dive back under the resistance again. The nearest techncial support (intraday) is seen at the level of $178.25, but so far the ETH keeps bouncing from 38% Fibonacci retracement located at #183.07. The next target for bulls is seen at the level of $209.89. The key short-term support is seen at the level of $164.45 and if violated, the price can drop to the level of $153.46.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - $240.86

WR2 - $214.90

WR1 - $200.99

Weekly Pivot - $173.55

WS1 - $159.05

WS2 - $132.99

WS3 - $117.12

Trading Recommendations:

The fear of the coronavirus consequences is very strong among the global investors and it rules on the financial markets. So far the global investors are not so keen to invest in cryptocurrency, because they are being perceived as risky assets. The larger time frame trend on Ethereum remains down and as long as the level of $214.67 is not violated, all rallies will be treated as a counter-trend corrective moves. This is why the short positions are now more preferred.

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Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for 24/04/2020:

Bitcoin rally amid the global coronavirus pandemic

Crypto Industry News:

About 75,000 BTC is added daily to long-term contract positions, according to data showing investor behavior. According to those presented by Glassnode monitoring resources from today, this month there was a significant increase in Bitcoin's position. These data show that the long-term investors of this cryptocurrency are in bearish mode, and are trying to buy coins at a price that they find attractive.

At current rates, investors add over 75,000 BTC to their positions every day. Meanwhile, according to Google Trends, there is a clear awareness among internet users about the upcoming Bitcoin halving, as well as the potential price increase that may result from this.

Earlier this week, the Coinbase exchange reported that it had seen an increase in Bitcoin purchases of $ 1,200. We remind you that this is the amount that was included in the stimulus checks for US citizens.

Technical Market Outlook:

The BTC/USD pair has extended the rally, broken through all techncial resistance and made a new swing high located at the level of $7,707. It is worth to notice, the high was made in form of a Pin Bar candlestik, co the temporary correction is expected towards the level of $7,386 or even $7,247. on the other hand, the next target for bulls is seen at the level of $7,897 - $7,934.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - $8,288

WR2 - $7,759

WR1 - $7,459

Weekly Pivot - $6,596

WS1 - $6,675

WS2 - $6,137

WS3 - $5,855

Trading Recommendations:

The fear of the coronavirus consequences is very strong among the global investors and it rules on the financial markets. So far the global investors are not so keen to invest in Bitcoin and treat BTC as a digital gold. The larger time frame trend remains down and as long as the level of $10,791 is not violated, all rallies will be treated as a counter-trend corrective moves. This is why the short positions are now more preferred.

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Technical Analysis of EUR/USD for 24/04/2020:

Technical Market Outlook:

The EUR/USD pair has broken below the key technical support located at the level of 1.0767 (low was at the level of 1.0756) and has been hovering around this level for some time now. This indcates a possible increase in the bearish activity soon, so it is worth to keep an eye on the local support at 1.0756. Any violation of this level will lead to the test of the key short-term support located at the level of 1.0654. The nearest techncial resistance is located at the level of 1.812.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.1134

WR2 - 1.1063

WR1 - 1.0956

Weekly Pivot - 1.0883

WS1 - 1.0784

WS2 - 1.0701

WS3 - 1.0600

Trading Recommendations:

The fear of the coronavirus consequences is very strong among the global investors and it rules on the financial markets. ON the EUR/USD pair the main trend is down, but the reversal is possible when the coronavirus pandemic will be tamed. The key long-term technical support is seen at the level of 1.0336 and the key long-term technical resistance is seen at the level of 1.1540. Only if one of this levels is clearly violated, the main trend might reverse (1.1540) or accelerate (1.0336).

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/GBP for April 24 - 2020

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The corrective decline from 0.8863 has been deeper than we first expected. However, second waves often are very deep. They may correct 99.99% of the first impulsive wave which we have counted the rally from 0.8675 to 0.8863.

We are looking for a break above the minor resistance-line currently at 0.8722 as the first good indication that wave ii/ has completed and wave iii/ is in motion for a clear break above 0.8863 towards at least 0.9063.

A break above resistance at 0.8740 will confirm that wave ii/ is completed.

Only an unexpected break back below 0.8675 will cancel off our former target at 0.8621 before a long-term low occurs.

R3: 0.8863

R2: 0.8779

R1: 0.8740

Pivot: 0.8724

S1: 0.8709

S2: 0.8675

S3: 0.8621

Trading recommendation:

We are long EUR from 0.8765 with our stop placed at 0.8670.

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GBP/USD: plan for the European session on April 24. Pound sellers made it clear who is the boss. Bears are counting on a

To open long positions on GBPUSD you need:

The British pound actively struggles for the level of 1.2339, which I paid attention to in my review yesterday afternoon. The catastrophic data on the decline in the UK services sector created pressure on the pair in the morning, but it was not possible to build a larger downward trend. The bulls made another attempt to grow during the US session, but met active resistance in the area of 1.2416, from which I advised you to open short positions. At the moment, we can expect growth and resistance test of 1.2416 while trading is above the 1.2339 level. In the absence of seller activity in this range, the bulls will quickly move the pound to a new high of 1.2476, where I recommend taking profits. In case the GBP/USD returns to the area under the support of 1.2339, it is best to look at long positions only when rebounding from the weekly low in the area of 1.2264, and then, counting on the upward correction of 30-40 points within the day.

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To open short positions on GBPUSD you need:

Pound sellers did an excellent job yesterday and did not let the pair go above the resistance 1.2416, from where I advised you to sell. As a result, the bears continue to control the market despite the upward correction in the pair, which is observed on the third day. As soon as the bears once again push the pair under the support of 1.2339 and consolidate below it, short positions can be opened in order to break the lower border of the upward correction channel and continue to pull down GBP/USD to a low of 1.2264. More persistent sellers will expect the pair to fall to support 1.2173, where I recommend taking profits. Under the GBP/USD growth scenario in the first half of the day, you can also return to short positions after a test of a high of 1.2416, provided that there is a false breakout there, or even higher, from a large resistance of 1.2476, counting on a correction of 30-40 points inside the day.

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Signals of indicators:

Moving averages

Trade is conducted in the region of 30 and 50 moving average, which indicates the preservation of equality among buyers and sellers.

Note: The period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the hourly chart H1 and differs from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the daily chart D1.

Bollinger bands

A break of the upper border of the indicator at 1.2365 will cause the pound to increase. Breakout of the lower border at 1.2325 will raise the pressure on the pound.

Description of indicators

  • Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. The graph is marked in yellow.
  • Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. The graph is marked in green.
  • MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence / Divergence - moving average convergence / divergence) Fast EMA period 12. Slow EMA period 26. SMA period 9
  • Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20
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Technical Analysis of GBP/USD for 24/04/2020:

Technical Market Outlook

The GBP/USD rally had been rejected at the level of technical resistance located at 1.2406 and is currently testing the local trend line dynamic support. Any violation of this line will lead to a further sell-off. The larger time frame trend remains up, but in the short-term the bears are in control of the market and the next target for them is located at the level of 1.2246 and 1.2165. Please notice, that the level of 1.2165 had been providing support for some time now, so any violation of this level will lead to a deeper sell-off towards 1.2000.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.2855

WR2 - 1.2741

WR1 - 1.2613

Weekly Pivot - 1.2507

WS1 - 1.2367

WS2 - 1.2267

WS3 - 1.2125

Trading Recommendations:

The fear of the coronavirus consequences is very strong among the global investors and it rules on the financial markets. On the GBP/USD pair the main trend is down, but the reversal is possible when the coronavirus pandemic will be tamed. The key long-term technical support has been recently violated (1.1983) and the new one is seen at the level of 1.1404. The key long-term technical resistance is seen at the level of 1.3518. Only if one of this levels is clearly violated, the main trend might reverse (1.3518) or accelerate (1.1404).

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Euro fell sharply amid EU summit results

Signals for the EUR/USD pair:

If the pair breaks through the level of 1.0819, the euro is likely to grow to 1.0791 and 1.0818.

A breakthrough at 1.0763 may lead to a sell-off of the euro at 1.0718 and 1.0636.

Signals for the GBP/USD pair:

If the pair breaks through the level of 1.2374, the British pound may rise to 1.2417 and 1.2476.

A breakthrough at 1.2336 is likely to lead to a sell-off of the British pound at 1.2264 and 1.2173.

Fundamental data:

The Ifo Business Climate indicator for Germany, the UK retail sales volume index, including fuel, and new orders for US durable goods are set for release today.

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EUR/USD: plan for the European session on April 24. Traders disappointed by EU summit results. Bears aim for breakout of

To open long positions on EURUSD you need:

The EU summit ended and it was not possible to obtain clear results on a long-term assistance program, including its volume, which caused the euro to fall. You can also forget about crown bonds, which creates even more uncertainty about how the eurozone will recover from the coronavirus pandemic. Buyers of the euro currently need to defend support 1.0763, which has already been tested three times recently. Forming a false breakout on it will be a signal to open long positions in the hope of recovering to an intermediate resistance of 1.0791, where the moving averages are located. We can expect a larger upward trend in EUR/USD only after breaking through this area, which will open a direct path to the highs of 1.0818 and 1.0845, where I recommend taking profits. If the pair falls along the trend, it is best to return to long positions to rebound from the major support at 1.0718, counting on an upward intraday correction of 30-40 points.

To open short positions on EURUSD you need:

Sellers have already tested support 1.0763 three times, however, a larger downward movement cannot form without its breakout. Consolidating below this level in the morning, along with weak reports from the IFO of Germany, is a signal for you to open short positions while expecting the bearish market to continue, which can lead EUR/USD to a low of 1.0718. However, the bears will continue to aim for this year's low in the area of 1.0636, where I recommend taking profit. In the event of an upward correction in the morning after the release of data on Germany, I recommend considering new short positions only after forming a false breakdown in the resistance area of 1.0791, but it is best to sell the pair immediately for a rebound only after testing a larger level of 1.0818.

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Signals of indicators:

Moving averages

Trade is conducted below 30 and 50 moving averages, which indicates the bearish nature of the market, while maintaining the euro to decline further.

Note: The period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the hourly chart H1 and differs from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the daily chart D1.

Bollinger bands

Growth may be limited by the upper level of the indicator at 1.0815. A break of the lower border of the indicator in the region of 1.0747 will only raise the pressure on the euro.

Description of indicators

  • Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. The graph is marked in yellow.
  • Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. The graph is marked in green.
  • MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence / Divergence - moving average convergence / divergence) Fast EMA period 12. Slow EMA period 26. SMA period 9
  • Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Hot forecast and trading signals for GBP/USD pair on April 24

GBP/USD H1.

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On the hourly chart, the pound/dollar pair is trading downward on April 24. The downward movement of quotes is supported by a strong downward trend line, which has at least 6 pivot points. The last time the pair's quotes rebound from it was yesterday. At the same time, there is a second trend line – an ascending one, which also has 6 pivot points at once and, accordingly, is also quite strong. Thus, the pound is currently fixed in a kind of triangle, leaving which will determine the further short-term trend of the pair. On the other hand, the statistics from the UK this week were generally as disastrous as those in other countries. The only report that could provoke the strengthening of the pound was the applications for unemployment benefits in March, which caused its fall. But all the other reports, including yesterday's business activity, most likely stop the bulls from buying pounds or close short positions on the US dollar. And if this is true, then the bears are activated either today or at the beginning of next week. As for the EUR/USD pair, we recommend that you pay attention to the report on long-term use orders in the States at the American trading session. If traders suddenly stop ignoring important statistics, then the bulls will be able to take advantage of the opportunities provided and continue to buy the pair with renewed strength. In any case, we have an ideal picture of the pound / dollar pair in terms of beauty and accuracy, which we assume two trading ideas for April 24:

1) Bears need to consolidate below the upward trend line in order to continue the downward movement. This will break the short-term bullish trend and keep the longer-term bearish current. In this case, we recommend selling the pound in order to support the 4-hour timeframe 1.2276. Thus, Take Profit can be around 72 points.

2) As long as the bulls are located above the upward trend line,the bullish trend persists in terms of intraday. Thus, the GBP/USD pair has even a growth potential to the level of 1.2395. However, no one knows how many more times the pair will push off from the upward trend line, so it is quite dangerous to trade for an increase right now. We believe that it is better to wait for the downward trend line to be broken, which will definitely be a strong signal to buy with the goal of the Senkou span B line of the 4-hour timeframe, which runs approximately at the level of 1.2467. Thus, the possible Take Profit for long positions is 68 points.

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Hot forecast and trading signals for EUR/USD pair on April 24

EUR/USD H1.

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On the hourly chart, the euro/dollar pair is trading inside the downward channel on April 24. However, at the time of writing, the bears met quite strong support in the way at the level of 1.0762. The quotes rebounded from this level at least twice, but each subsequent move up was less than the previous one. Thus, we are inclined to believe that this level will be broken down. On the other hand, the Euro currency continues to be under moderate market pressure due to the failure of negotiations at the EU summit. Both parties failed to agree on sources of financing for an economy that is experiencing serious problems amid the "coronavirus" pandemic. And if the EU economy does not receive assistance, it will decline even faster. We also all saw indexes of business activity in the services and production sectors for March and April but it's better not to look at these values and generally forget about them. Another thing is that everything is far from perfect across the ocean. Business activity in the States is also declining rapidly, which, in principle, iis not surprising in the conditions of quarantine. But, as we said in fundamental review , the dollar continues to be in demand in the currency market simply because it is the dollar. Investors and traders all over the world believe that if there is a crisis, it is necessary to transfer their assets to the us currency. Today, the bulls can be helped by reports on orders for long-term goods in the United States. These numbers promise to be as disastrous as reports on unemployment claims or business activity. And since we do not expect statistics from the Euro zone today, the only report from the US and the possible desire of traders to fix part of the profit before the weekend may push the pair's quotes up in the afternoon.

Based on the foregoing, we have two trading ideas for April 24:

1) Bears need to consolidate below the local support level of 1.0762 in order to continue the downward movement. Breaking through this level will open the way to the second level of support for the 4-hour timeframe. Thus, in this case, we recommend selling the EUR/USD pair and taking profits near the level of 1.0714. Here, the potential Take Profit will be 48 points.

2) Another rebound of the price from the local support level of 1.0762 can reduce the zeal of the bears to zero and allow the bulls to play for an increase. In this case, according to the canons of technical analysis, we can expect an update to the previous local maximum, that is, the level of 1.0847. The critical line Kijun-sen of the Ichimoku indicator on the 4-hour timeframe and the upper line of the downward channel is near this level. Thus, the round of upward movement will most likely end in this area. In this case, we recommend buying the EUR/USD pair with the goal of 1.0825, near which you can take profits. Here, the potential Take Profit is 50 points.

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Forecast for EUR/USD on April 24, 2020

EUR/USD

The euro continues to aggressively move towards its intended target of 1.0610 - to support the embedded line of the price channel on the daily chart. The EU economic recovery summit that ended yesterday was unsuccessful. Expectations of economists on business activity indexes were overestimated: Manufacturing PMI was 33.6 points in April against the forecast of 38.7, Services PMI showed only 11.7 points against the expectation of 23.2.

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The price is falling under the balance and MACD indicator lines. The lines themselves are directed downward, while the main trend is decreasing. The Marlin oscillator is going down in the bears zone. You can also notice that the signal line of the oscillator went down from its own wedge, which indicates the further intention of the price to decline.

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The price is falling below the red balance line on the four-hour chart. Marlin is declining in the negative trend zone. We expect the euro to decline further.

It is possible to open short positions in the market with stop loss above 1.0815.

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Forecast for AUD/USD on April 24, 2020

AUD/USD

The Australian dollar grew by 48 points on Thursday, with the upper shadow of the daily candle leaving the area above the resistance of the embedded line of the price channel. It opened under this line today, and if the price does not go above yesterday's high, then the price could go below the MACD line (0.6284) in the near future and the aussie will face a medium-term drop.

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The immediate goal on this path is the price channel line in the area of 0.6165. The price exit above yesterday's high opens a bullish target of 0.6523.

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The price is between the balance and MACD indicator lines on the H4 chart. The MACD line is turning down, which could indicate a reversal in the price trend itself. The Marlin oscillator is in the positive zone, but it is decreasing and near the trend border.

So, the MACD line of the daily scale at the price of 0.6284 becomes a signal level for opening sales, this is also yesterday's low. Stop loss is just above 0.6355.

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Forecast for USD/JPY on April 24, 2020

USD/JPY

The price showed the most volatility in the last five days, although the pair ended the session with a loss of only 15 points. But this decline was enough for technical indicators to slightly turn down on the daily chart, and the price would go below the price channel line, on which it had been trading all week. The signal line of the Marlin oscillator is still within the boundaries of the wedge-shaped model, but its current value is negative, which indicates a more likely breakthrough of the indicator and price down.

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After the expected breakout, the price should overcome the nearest support along the price channel and then a direct road will open to the downward trend line with a target of 102.40.

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The price is moving sideways on the four-hour chart, in the uncertainty range of 107.30-108.10. The first sign of an impulsive downward movement in the near future, perhaps today, is when the Marlin signal line leaves from its own range down, and into the zone of negative values.

The first signal to open short positions will be the price moving below the signal level 107.30, the main trade will start below 106.74.

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NZDUSD reacted right below descending trendline resistance. Further drop to come!

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Trading Recommendation

Entry: 0.60075

Reason for Entry: Graphical overlap

Take Profit : 0.59215

Reason for Take Profit: Graphical swing low

Stop Loss: 0.60414

Reason for Stop loss: Graphical swing high, descending trendline resistance

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Overview of the EUR/USD pair. April 24. The EU summit ended in nothing. The EU member states did not agree on the 2-trillion

4-hour timeframe

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Technical details:

Higher linear regression channel: direction - downward.

Lower linear regression channel: direction - downward.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - downward.

CCI: -155.6859

The EUR/USD currency pair starts a new trading day with a continuation of the downward movement. Yesterday, April 23, the euro/dollar pair adjusted to the moving average line, but, quite predictably, failed to gain a foothold above it. Thus, at the moment, the downward trend persists and is supported by two linear regression channels and a downward moving average line. Thus, at the moment, all trend indicators in the "linear regression channels" system signal a move to the south. Therefore, now we can conclude that the period of consolidation of the pair after several corrections against each other is over and may well begin to form a new downward trend. Questions about the current movement remain basically the same. And what are the reasons now for the US dollar to become more expensive? Is the situation in America better than in Europe? The epidemic has affected the United States less than the EU? The US is handling the epidemic better than the Alliance? The consequences for the American economy will be milder than for the European one? No. So, what is the basis for the dollar's growth? As before, on the sole belief of traders and investors that anything can happen in the world but the US dollar will be unshakable. Unfortunately, this is the most powerful factor right now. All macroeconomic statistics and fundamental news continue to be ignored by market participants.

Meanwhile, the European Union held a summit in a video format, where 27 EU member states had to decide the fate of a 2 trillion package of aid to the European economy and the countries most affected by the pandemic. Recall that the main proposal of the European Council is to start issuing bonds on behalf of the entire European Union, which are now called all "coronabonds". This idea is opposed by the "Northern" countries - Estonia, Finland, the Netherlands, Germany, and Austria. Today, German Chancellor Angela Merkel said that during the video conference, the issue of issuing "coronabonds" may be discussed, but she believes that Europe needs more flexible tools. "Some demand that, in the face of a severe crisis, we approve common debt obligations with shared responsibility. This issue will obviously be put on the agenda in a video conference of the European Council," Merkel said. "For a limited period, we must make significantly higher contributions to the European budget," Merkel also said, indicating that Germany is ready to pay the EU more than it is now, just to avoid participating in the issuance of common European bonds.

A little later, information began to arrive about the results of the summit. Here, too, there were few surprises. It is reported that the EU leaders failed to agree on the creation of a fund to help the European economy in the amount of 2 trillion euros. The parties did not agree on the sources of raising funds and the exact amount needed to restore the EU economy. It is also still unclear on what terms funds will be provided to the most affected countries. On the terms of preferential loans or gratuitous assistance? Recall that the countries that opposed the "coronabonds", just think that the poor countries had to accumulate more funds for the creation of "safety cushion" during good times. Thus, in general, the results are as follows. EU countries approve the creation of a fund for economic recovery from the coronavirus pandemic. But the sources of funding for this fund and its size will be discussed later. The European Commission is charged with developing and proposing a new budget and ways to finance it. This is very bad news for the EU and the euro currency. And we believe that today the European currency may continue to devalue against the dollar due to the failure in the negotiations. After all, it should be understood that this is not just an ordinary aid package, but an aid package that should save the European economy. Roughly speaking, the more the economy falls now, the longer it will take to recover. And 2 trillion euros will be used to soften its fall. Therefore, they are vital.

In Italy, by the way, they do not particularly believe that the EU government will provide effective assistance in the fight against the "coronavirus". Among the Italians polled, only 30% believe that the EU will provide assistance. According to the same poll, more than 42% of citizens support the idea of leaving the EU. Recall that Italy is now the headache of the entire European Union. It is Italy that has the largest public debt, exceeding EU norms by 2.5 times. It was Italy that suffered the most from the "coronavirus" and therefore requires the most help.

In addition to the news from the EU summit, there will be several macroeconomic publications today. The least interesting ones will come from the European Union. It is unlikely that in the current conditions, traders will be seriously interested in data on business optimism or economic expectations in Germany. Thus, the hopes of euro traders will only be associated with the report on orders for durable goods in the United States, which, according to experts' forecasts, promises to come out as disastrous as a business activity a day earlier. Recall that this indicator has three derivatives. The total number of orders is expected to decrease by 12% compared to February. The indicator of orders excluding transport – with a decrease of 6%. The indicator excluding defense orders – with a decrease of 8.6%. The indicator excluding defense and aviation – with a reduction of 6%. Over the past 10 years, only once did these indicators show a similar drop, in 2014. Thus, this report, which is quite important for the US economy, may put pressure on the dollar.

What do we have in the end? The downward trend for the euro/dollar pair remains. On the last trading day of the week, traders can lock in part of the profit on open positions. Moreover, such a decision will clearly be favored by statistics from overseas. At the same time, the US currency remains the general trust of traders in times of crisis, while the euro currency does not have such trust. Moreover, now we see that the United States easily accepts multi-trillion-dollar aid packages for the economy, and in the EU there are problems with this, since the EU is not a single state, taking into account the views of its 27 members. Therefore, in the current reality, we are inclined to believe that the euro will continue to fall in price.

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The volatility of the euro/dollar currency pair as of April 23 is 73 points. Thus, this indicator does not give reason to expect a new wave of panic. 74 points per day is the average strength of volatility. Today, we expect the pair's quotes to move between the levels of 1.0705 and 1.0851. A reversal of the Heiken Ashi indicator upward may signal a new round of upward correction.

Nearest support levels:

S1 - 1.0742

S2 - 1.0620

S3 - 1.0498

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 - 1.0864

R2 - 1.0986

R3 - 1.1108

Trading recommendations:

The EUR/USD pair continues its downward trend. Thus, traders are now recommended to trade down again with targets of 1.0742 and 1.0705. It is recommended to consider buying the euro/dollar pair not before fixing the price above the moving average line with the first goal of the Murray level of "2/8"-1.0986.

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