Stamping in place (a review of EUR / USD and GBP / USD on 06/27/2019)

Yesterday can be described as a marking time, although the reasons for some kind of revival is quite enough for yourself. More precisely, there is only one reason. Orders for durable goods in the United States declined by another 1.3%, while the data for the previous month was revised for the worse, and then orders declined not by 2.1%, but by as much as 2.8%. And this alone should have been enough for the dollar to continue losing its position, but the degree of its oversold is so great that this was not yet enough. Also, data from the UK is not particularly pleased, because instead of the growing number of approved mortgage loans, investors contemplated their decline from 42,898 to 42,384. In other words, all the statistics were somewhat depressing. Even though there was some kind of excitement during the Mark Carney speech, quotes remained virtually unchanged in the end. The head of the Bank of England initially pleased everyone with the statement that the regulator is not currently considering the possibility of lowering the refinancing rate. It is true that he immediately stated the growth of risks and uncertainties. So far, the Bank of England does not understand what kind of damage to the economy will be caused by Brexit, especially if it follows the worst scenario. In other words, given that everything goes in time for an unregulated Brexit, which is considered almost inevitable if Boris Johnson becomes prime minister. Mark Carney gently hints that the Bank of England will immediately lower the rate immediately after the divorce from the European Union and refinancing. Investors really did not understand what to do and where to run. The regulator is currently is not considering the possibility of reducing the refinancing rate.

analytics5d146591bd8ce.png

Today, they can get a good idea in the form of the final data on the GDP of the United States for the first quarter, which, as expected, should confirm the fact of accelerating economic growth from 3.0% to 3.2%. Of course, in many respects, this has long been taken into account by the market, since this is precisely what the preliminary data has shown. But one thing is suspicious and speculative, and the facts are completely different. Especially since there is really too much uncertainty on the market, and at least some serious data, if not for long, can give investors confidence. However, data on applications for unemployment benefits will overshadow, and the total number of which is likely to increase by 7 thousand. In particular, the number of initial applications may grow by 4 thousand, and repeated ones by 3 thousand. But the growth is extremely insignificant , so it does not really scare market participants.

analytics5d1465b945084.png

Thus, the single European currency is likely to fall to 1.1325.

analytics5d1465d19574a.png

The pound is also waiting for a decline, and the benchmark is 1.2625.

analytics5d1465e176ca0.png

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP / USD plan for the European session on June 27: The pound remains in the range while traders are waiting for new news

To open long positions on GBP / USD pair, you need:

Pound buyers are required to keep the level of 1.2664 and the formation of a false breakdown, after updating the minimum of yesterday, which will be the first signal to open long positions. The target of GBP/USD buyers is to return to the resistance level of 1.2708, which will lead to the renewal of weekly highs in the area of 1.2756 and 1.2799, where I recommend taking profits. In the case of a further decline in the pound, it is best to return to long positions to rebound from a low of 1.2623.

To open short positions on GBP / USD pair, you need:

Bears will try to break below the support at 1.2664, which will increase the pressure on the pound and lead to a renewal of the lows around 1.2623 and 1.2582, where I recommend taking profits. The bulls form an upward correction in the first half of the day. You can count on sales from the resistance of 1.2708, provided that a false breakdown is formed, or on a rebound from the maximum of 1.2756.

Indicator signals:

Moving averages

Trading is below 30 and 50 moving averages, which indicates a downward correction in the pair.

Bollinger bands

The upward correction will be limited to the upper boundary of the channel in the region of 1.2708, while a breakthrough of the lower boundary in the 1.2664 region will lead to a larger sale of the pound.

analytics5d14653c3e4cc.png

Description of indicators

MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow

MA (moving average) 30 days - green

MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9

Bollinger Bands 20

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR / USD plan for the European session on June 27: Bears have kept the market under their control but a breakthrough is

To open long positions on EUR/USD pair, you need:

The euro buyers tried several times yesterday to save the situation, especially after a weak report on the American economy, but it was not possible to resume growth. At the moment, it is best to return to long positions on a false breakdown from the level of 1.1348, after updating the minimum of yesterday or to rebound from larger support of 1.1317. The main task of buyers is to return to the resistance of 1.1374, which will allow to break through the upper limit of the new downward channel and continue the growth of the euro to the highs of 1.1400 and 1.1430, where I recommend taking profits.

To open short positions on EUR/USD pair, you need:

Weak data on the volume of orders for durable goods did not allow the bears to continue forming the correction. At the moment, it is best to consider short positions after the formation of a false breakdown in the area of resistance at 1.1374 or after a successful breakdown and consolidation below the support of 1.1348, which will lead the EUR/USD pair to new 1.1317 and 1.1286 minimums, where I recommend taking profits. In the case of growth above 1.1374, the 1.1400 area will be a good level for opening short positions.

Indicator signals:

Moving averages

Trade is conducted below 30 and 50 moving averages, which indicates the formation of a downward correction.

Bollinger bands

Upward correction will be limited to the upper boundary of the channel in the area of 1.1380. A break of the lower border around 1.1348 will lead to a new sale of the euro.

analytics5d14650fb1b63.png

Description of indicators

MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow

MA (moving average) 30 days - green

MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9

Bollinger Bands 20

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EURUSD: USD to regain momentum ahead of GDP. June 27, 2019

The EUR/USD pair is quite volatile. However, its quotes continue to move up, reaching 3 months high at 1.14 area. The US dollar's gains are expected to be short-lived despite the Fed's decision to keep its interest rate cut on hold.

Ahead of the G20 meeting, the euro failed to sustain momentum against the greenback. The European Commission proposed an EU budget of €168.3 billion for 2020. With a focus on smart and inclusive growth. Although Europe lags behind in economic growth compared to other major world economies, it does well in the Inclusive Development Index Where GDP can overlook inequality - the Inclusive Development Index aims to include it.

The euro has lowered after the release of weak economic data. Today German prelim CPI report is going to be published. The reading is expected to be unchanged at 0.2% and Spanish flash CPI to remain unchanged as well at 0.8%. Tomorrow, the index of import prices in Germany will be published. The figure is expected to decrease to -0.1% from the previous value of 0.3% and French Consumer Spending is expected to drop to 0.0% from the previous value of 0.1%.

At the same time, the US Federal Reserve is facing difficulties due to low inflation and Trump's constant demands to cut the interest rates. Market participants are reluctant to make any predictions

Some economists suppose that the Fed is likely to cut its key rate at the July meeting this year. Fed Chairman Powell pointed out that sudden rate cut may worsen the economic growth.

Investors are awaiting the US and China meeting. China and the United States have already imposed tariffs of up to 25% on hundreds of billions of dollars of each other's goods in a trade war that has lasted nearly a year. Relations between Washington and Beijing have spiraled downward since talks collapsed in May when the United States accused China of reneging on pledges to reform its economy.

Today, US Final GDP report is going to be published. The reading is expected to be unchanged at 3.1% and Final GDP Price Index is also expected to be unchanged as well to 0.8%. Moreover, unemployment claims are expected to rise to 220k from the previous figure of 216k and Pending Home Sales is expected to grow to 1.1% from the previous value of -1.5%.

What is more, the US currency is unlikely to be influenced by the upcoming reports while the euro may, on the contrary, decline.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price continued to push lower after retest and reject off the 1.1400 area with a daily close. Yesterday the price closed with indecision forming a Doji candle pattern but today it managed to regain bearish pressure and continue to decline. As for Mean Reversion, while forming Bearish Regular Divergence, the price is expected to push lower towards 1.1300 area before showing any bullish signs to push higher. As the price remains below 1.1400 area with a daily close, the bearish pressure is expected to continue.

analytics5d1455036a954.png

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Trading plan for EURUSD for June 27, 2019

analytics5d14527738e97.jpg

Technical outlook:

The EURUSD is likely to approach a minimum drop towards 1.1300 levels and up to 1.1250/70 levels. We have presented the hourly chart today highlighting the recent upswing between 1.1180 through 1.1412 levels respectively. A simple retracement of the above boundary should bring EURUSD lower towards the Fibonacci 0.618 support seen at 1.1270 levels. Looking at the structure of the counter trend drop, it seems like a 3-3-5 flat for now. Yesterday's rally had hit resistance at 1.1390 levels as it was discussed in the morning here. Aggressive traders who might have taken short positions between 1.1380/1.1400 levels could hold positions with a stop just above 1.1412 levels. Please note that the current drop is just an expected retracement and should unfold into 3 waves terminating at Fibonacci support of the previous upswing. Bulls are expected to be back in control once the counter-trend drop is complete. Only a break below 1.1180 levels could be seen as an immediate threat to the current bull run.

Trading plan:

Remain aggressively short fro 1.1380/1.1400 levels, stop above 1.1412 levels, target 1.1300 and 1.1270

Good luck!

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Forecast for EUR / USD pair on June 27, 2019

EUR / USD pair

Investors continue to be in a state of tension as they wait for the G20 summit, which begins its work today in Japan. Usually, this event does not attract much attention of investors but now the issue of US-China trade relations with the US and the EU will be resolved. The situation is worsened by the fact that there are still no leaks of information, as the old formulations of Donald Trump and other officials are repeated above all positive ones. This may be a sign that the parties approach the negotiations unwillingly and this creates prospects for strengthening the dollar. Also, there will be a summit of EU countries on Sunday, which will decide the choice of the head of the ECB. France's opposition to Weidmann's candidacy.

Due to such investors' expectations, the euro has not changed after weak US economic data in the last two days. Yesterday, the volume of orders for durable goods decreased by -1.3% in May. The trade balance for the same month worsened from -70.9 billion dollars to -74.5 billion.

Over the past day, the Marlin oscillator signal line moved to the negative zone and the MACD line (blue indicator) approached the current price on the four-hour chart. The Marlin also declined slightly on the daily chart. Such changes increase the likelihood of a breakdown on the price. Fixing of the price below the MACD line of 1.1330 will signal a steady decline on H4. The region of 1.1234 will be the target for reduction in the support of the embedded line of the price channel on the daily chart and the MACD line on the same scale with an approximate area of confluence of these two lines. In the case of an upward price reversal from the indicated support area, the growth to the Fibonacci level of 61.8% is possible towards 1.1445.

analytics5d143ab842204.png

analytics5d143ad17e3b4.png

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Elliott wave analysis of GBP/JPY for June 27 - 2019

analytics5d1447fd7ab86.png

GBP/JPY is testing short-term important resistance at 137.13 and a clear break above here will confirm that the correction in wave 2 did complete at 135.35 and wave 3 now is developing for an ultimate break above the 148.87 peak.

We also need to stress the importance of the possibility that resistance at 137.13 holds firm, for a break back below 135.75, that will call for a continuation closer to 134.50. So, wait for a final dip closer to 134.50 or a clear break above 137.13 before buying GBP.

R3: 138.26

R2: 137.79

R1: 137.44

Pivot: 137.18

S1: 136.83

S2: 136.54

S3: 136.31

Trading recommendation:

WE are looking to buy GBP at 134.65 or upon a break above 137.13.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for June 27 - 2019

analytics5d144655be02e.png

EUR/JPY is developing as expected. Its quotes are going higher. With a corrective dip to 121.62 followed by a clear break above 122.48, we should see a continuation higher to the next short-term hurdles at 123.18 and 124.16.

in the long-term we expect the ongoing rally to ultimately break above resistance at 127.50 for a continuation higher to at least 129.59 and likely even closer to 135.02.

Important support is now seen at 121.62

R3: 123.75

R2: 123.18

R1: 122.81

Pivot: 122.38

S1: 122.18

S2: 121.85

S3: 121.62

Trading recommendation:

We are long EUR from 121.98 and we will move our stop higher to 121.60.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis: Important intraday Level For EUR/USD, June 27,2019

analytics5d143c31b3bf0.jpg

When the European market opens, some economic data such as Italian 10-y Bond Auction, German Prelim CPI m/m, and SpanishFlash CPI y/y will be published. The US will release such economic data as Bank Stress Test Results, Natural Gas Storage, Pending Home Sales m/m,Unemployment Claims, Final GDP Price Index q/q, and Final GDP q/q. So, amid the reports,EUR/USD will move in a low to medium volatility during this day. TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL: Breakout BUY Level: 1.1431.Strong Resistance: 1.1424.Original Resistance: 1.1413. Inner Sell Area: 1.1402. Target Inner Area: 1.1375. Inner Buy Area: 1.1348.Original Support: 1.1337.Strong Support: 1.1326.Breakout SELL Level: 1.1319. (Disclaimer)

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis: Important intraday level for USD/JPY, June 27,2019

analytics5d143b97cc19c.jpg

Japan will release the Retail Sales y/y and the US will publish some such economic data as Bank Stress Test Results, NaturalGas Storage, Pending Home Sales m/m, Unemployment Claims, Final GDPPrice Index q/q, and Final GDP q/q. So, there is a probability the USD/JPY pair will move with low to medium volatility during this day. TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL: Resistance.3:108.31. Resistance. 2:108.10. Resistance. 1:107.89. Support. 1:107.63. Support. 2:107.42. Support. 3:107.21. (Disclaimer)

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Forecast for GBP/USD on June 27, 2019

GBP/USD

Over the past day, the British pound exchange rate has not changed a point to the current moment. Yesterday, the price channel line on the daily chart and the MACD line on the four-hour chart were strong resistance. On H4, the situation is completely decreasing, the Marlin oscillator remains in the growth zone. If we assume that when the neutral line touches the signal line, the Marlin signal line on the daily can turn around, then the available distance on the indicator is enough to reduce the price to the nearest target level of 1.2610 (minimum of August 15, 2018). The consolidation of the price below the level opens the way to a further decline – 1.2530, 1.2300/10 (November 2016 minimum).

analytics5d1439f6e52ad.png

analytics5d143a0f4da79.png

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Forecast for AUD/USD on June 27, 2019

AUD/USD

Yesterday, the Australian dollar grew by 25 points, showing steady growth over all the graphical and resistance indicator on the daily chart. The growth target of 0.7048 is the upper limit of the price channel.

But the observed growth has a big pitfall – on the four-hour chart, the Marlin oscillator is steadily declining against the price growth. Soon, the signal line may be in the negative zone and the growth will weaken with a possible subsequent reversal. The target of 0.7048 may not be reached.

For a full reversal, the price needs to go under the MACD line on the daily chart (0.6945). Below is the MACD line on the chart of the lower scale (0.6935), but if the price overcomes the support on the daily chart, it will be a matter of a short time to go under the MACD line on H4.

analytics5d1439753fe8e.png

analytics5d14398ae3252.png

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR/USD approaching support, potential bounce!

analytics5d144386741fc.jpg

EURUSD is approaching support where we might see a bounce in price.

Entry: 1.1310

Why it's good : Horizontal pullback support, 38.2% fibonacci retracement, 61.8% Fibonacci extension

Stop Loss : 1.1245

Why it's good : Horizontal pullback support, 100% Fibonacci extension, 76.4% Fibonacci retracement

Take Profit : 1.1422

Why it's good: Horizontal swing high resistance, 100% Fibonacci extension, 23.6% Fibonacci retracement

analytics5d14435479045.png

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

AUD/USD surpassed resistance, potential further rise!

analytics5d1442f95d16a.jpg

Price surpassed its resistance and we expect to see a further rise to its next resistance at 0.7012.

Entry : 0.6987

Why it's good : key resistance turned support, horizontal pullback support

Stop Loss : 0.6959

Why it's good : 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, horizontal swing low support

Take Profit : 0.6625

Why it's good : 23.6% & 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, horizontal pullback support

analytics5d1442d52b26e.png

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

USD/JPY break out, potential bounce !

analytics5d144277af3ec.jpg

Price is bouncing up the resistance-turned-support level and could bounce further.

Entry : 107.828

Why it's good : horizontal overlap resistance

Take Profit : 108.727

Why it's good :horizontal swing high resistance, 50% Fibonacci retracement

analytics5d14425727ad5.png

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR / USD. Trump "dismisses" Powell again: dollar bulls have lost their northern momentum

The dollar bulls did not take the time to be inspired by the neutral comments of the Fed head, as the dollar again came under pressure from fundamental factors. At this time, the focus of traders was the president of the United States, Donald Trump, who again criticized the actions of the Fed and once again threatened to remove the head of the American regulator.

On the other hand, the market has become accustomed to similar rhetoric of the US President. Trump has been actively criticizing the Fed for the past year, expressing dissatisfaction with the tightening of monetary policy conditions. Today, Trump even offered to "exchange" Powell for Draghi - according to him, while the ECB is pouring money into the economy, the Fed "pulls it out of it" like a vacuum cleaner.

I will note that during the period of his presidential term, Trump dismissed from the White House quite a few officials, advisers and specialists. According to experts, staffing "turnover" with him is the most active compared to the rest of the US presidents. And without any doubt, we can assume that Trump would have dismissed the current head of the Fed a year ago, if this issue got resolved with one stroke of his pen. But the thing is, Powell is not Trump's subordinate. The President of the United States selects applicants for this position, conducts interviews, introduces a candidate to Congress and lobbies the "chosen one" with his influence. But then their paths diverge: formally, the US Central Bank is an independent body, whose activities are not controlled by the executive branch. For example, Mick Malwyny,

analytics5d13a4e52fc02.jpg

Today, Trump stated the opposite. According to him, he can remove Powell from office and has the appropriate authority to do so. In fact, this is quite a controversial issue. Contrary to popular belief about the full "immunity" of members of the regulator, the head of the American state has the authority to dismiss any Fed governor, although this provision has not yet been applied in practice. The core law "On the Federal Reserve" literally reads as follows: "... each member of the regulator occupies his post for a period of fourteen years from the date of the expiration of the term of office of his predecessor, unless he is fired by the President for anything else he did before. And although this formulation allows it to be interpreted widely enough, the fact remains: the President of the United States has the authority to dismiss the head of the Fed.

According to experts, the head of state can really remove Powell from his post, but only if he violates the law. In addition, the Congress will have to get "reinforced concrete arguments" in order to remove him from office by voting and by the appropriate procedure. Obviously, Trump's disagreement with the Fed's ongoing policy is not consistent with the above algorithm, so this scenario will most likely not be implemented. Donald Trump in his usual manner mentioned such an opportunity. But here, it is necessary to take into account, firstly, his impulsiveness, and secondly, the fact that he said this after doubts voiced by Powell that the regulator needs to lower the interest rate at the next meeting.

Thus, despite the absence of indisputable powers of the President of the United States in the sphere of the removal / dismissal of the head of the Fed, the dollar still came under certain pressure. Donald Trump is clearly putting political pressure on the Fed, demanding monetary easing. The head of the Fed, in turn, at every opportunity, recalls that the Central Bank is an independent body whose members make decisions based on economic factors rather than political ones. And yet, after a series of corresponding statements by Trump last year, the Fed really halted the rate hike cycle, and after a few months, regulators spoke about the need for accommodation of monetary policy. Whether or not this is a match is an open question.

Here it should also be noted that there have been recently appeared arguments in favor of lowering the interest rate without the political intervention of the White House. Key and secondary macroeconomic indicators show a slowdown in response to trade tensions between the United States and China. In particular, the latest published releases were not in favor of the dollar. For example, the indicator of consumer confidence of Americans collapsed to two-year lows, and the volume of orders for durable goods disappointed traders negative dynamics. The indicator remained in the negative area (-1.3%), thus continuing the April trend.

analytics5d13a4d07dab5.jpg

Thus, the overall fundamental picture did not allow the dollar to "spread its wings". Although yesterday had "moderate optimism", Powell was quite conducive to the realization of this scenario. In turn, eur / usd buyers also could not lead the pair away from local minima: the pair updated the high of the day, but that's where the northern impulse has exhausted itself. The eur / usd pair is still trading in the range of 1.1295-1.1420 (respectively, the Tenkan-sen line and the top line of the Bollinger Bands indicator on the daily chart) and, apparently, will trade in this price range until the most significant event of this week - the G20 summit.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Fractal analysis of major currency pairs on June 27

Forecast for June 27:

Analytical review of H1-scale currency pairs:

analytics5d1417c8e2a14.png

For the euro / dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.1452, 1.1428, 1.1404, 1.1388, 1.1353, 1.1334 and 1.1305. Here, we continue to follow the development of the ascending structure of June 18. The continuation of the movement to the top, is expected after the passage of the price of the noise range 1.1388 - 1.1404. In this case, the target is 1.1428, wherein consolidation is near this level. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level of 1.1452. After reaching which, we expect a departure to the correction.

Short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 1.1353 - 1.1334. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to in-depth correction. Here, the goal is 1.1305. This level is a key support for the top.

The main trend is the upward structure of June 18, the stage of correction.

Trading recommendations:

Buy 1.1405 Take profit: 1.1428

Buy 1.1430 Take profit: 1.1452

Sell: 1.1353 Take profit: 1.1335

Sell: 1.1332 Take profit: 1.1305

analytics5d1417e4111f3.png

For the pound / dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.2906, 1.2842, 1.2798, 1.2745, 1.2668, 1.2636 and 1.2608. Here, we are following the development of the ascending structure of June 18. We expect a continuation of the upward movement after the breakdown of the level of 1.2745. In this case, the first target is 1.2798. Short-term upward movement is possible in the range 1.2798 - 1.2842. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to movement to the potential target - 1.2906. Upon reaching this level, we expect a rollback to the bottom.

Short-term downward movement is expected in the range of 1.2668 - 1.2636. The breakdown of the last value will lead to a prolonged correction. Here, the target is 1.2608. This level is a key support for the top.

The main trend is the ascending structure of June 18.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.2745 Take profit: 1.2798

Buy: 1.2800 Take profit: 1.2842

Sell: 1.2668 Take profit: 1.2636

Sell: 1.2634 Take profit: 1.2608

analytics5d141824f0dce.png

For the dollar / franc pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 0.9847, 0.9824, 0.9769, 0.9738, 0.9688 and 0.9651. Here, we are following the development of the downward cycle of June 19. At the moment, the price is in the correction zone. The continuation of the movement to the bottom is expected after the breakdown of the level of 0.9688. Here, the potential target is 0.9651. From the range of 0.9688 - 0.9651, we expect to go to the correction zone.

Consolidated movement is possible in the range of 0.9738 - 0.9769. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to the development of a protracted correction. Here, the goal is 0.9824. The range 0.9824 - 0.9847 is a key support for the downward structure. Before it, we expect the initial conditions for the upward cycle.

The main trend is the downward cycle of June 19, the stage of correction.

Trading recommendations:

Buy : 0.9738 Take profit: 0.9767

Buy : 0.9773 Take profit: 0.9824

Sell: Take profit:

Sell: 0.9686 Take profit: 0.9653

analytics5d14183f5c26f.png

For the dollar / yen pair, the key levels on the scale are : 108.12, 107.77, 107.15, 106.65, 106.35 and 105.94. Here, the price is in deep correction and forms the potential for the top of June 25. The expected initial conditions for the top are expected to level 108.12. The continuation of the movement to the bottom is expected after the breakdown of the level of 107.15. Here, the target is 106.65. The breakdown of which, in turn, will allow us to count on the movement to the level 106.35, where consolidation is near this value. For now, the potential value for the bottom, we considered the level of 105.94. After reaching which, we expect to go into correction.

The main trend: the downward cycle of June 17, the stage of deep correction.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 107.78 Take profit: 108.10

Sell: 107.15 Take profit: 106.67

Sell: 106.62 Take profit: 106.37

analytics5d14189353639.png

For the Canadian dollar / US dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.3235, 1.3208, 1.3162, 1.3137, 1.3104, 1.3069, 1.3027 and 1.3001. Here, the next targets for the downward movement we determined from the local structure on June 25th. Short-term movement to the bottom is expected in the range of 1.3104 - 1.3069. The breakdown of the latter value should be accompanied by a pronounced downward movement. Here, the target is 1.3027. Consolidation is in the range of 1.3027 - 1.3001.

Short-term upward trend is possible in the range of 1.3137 - 1.3162. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to a prolonged correction. Here, the target is 1.3208. Before the noise range of 1.3208 - 1.3235, we expect clearance of the expressed initial conditions for the upward cycle.

The main trend is a local downward structure from June 25.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.3137 Take profit: 1.3162

Buy : 1.3164 Take profit: 1.3208

Sell: 1.3104 Take profit: 1.3070

Sell: 1.3067 Take profit: 1.3027

analytics5d1418ae751c0.png

For the pair Australian dollar / US dollar, the key levels on the H1 scale are : 0.7097, 0.7077, 0.7039, 0.7012, 0.6972, 0.6954 and 0.6927. Here, we are following the development of the ascending structure of June 18. The continuation of the movement to the top is expected after the breakdown of the level of 0.7012. In this case, the goal is 0.7039, near this level is a price consolidation. The breakdown of the level of 0.7040 must be accompanied by a pronounced upward movement. Here, the goal is 0.7077. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level of 0.7097. Upon reaching this level, we expect a consolidated movement in the range of of 0.7077 - 0.7097, as well as a rollback to the bottom.

Short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 0.6972 - 0.6954. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to a prolonged correction. Here, the target is 0.6927. This level is a key support for the top.

The main trend is the upward structure on June 18.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 0.7012 Take profit: 0.7037

Buy: 0.7041 Take profit: 0.7077

Sell : 0.6972 Take profit : 0.6955

Sell: 0.6952 Take profit: 0.6930

analytics5d1418fab0a2d.png

For the euro / yen pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 123.73, 123.49, 123.11, 122.82, 122.31, 122.08 and 121.74. Here, we clarified the key objectives for the ascending structure of June 21. The continuation of the movement to the top is expected after the breakdown of the level of 122.82. In this case, the goal is 123.11, near this level is a price consolidation. The breakdown of the level of 123.11 should be accompanied by a pronounced upward movement to the level of 123.49. We consider the level 123.73 to be a potential value for the top. After reaching which, we expect consolidation, as well as a rollback to the bottom.

Short-term downward movement is expected in the corridor 122.31 - 122.08. The breakdown of the last value will lead to a prolonged correction. Here, the goal is 121.74. This level is a key support for the upward structure.

The main trend is the ascending structure of June 21.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 122.82 Take profit: 123.10

Buy: 123.14 Take profit: 123.49

Sell: 122.30 Take profit: 122.10

Sell: 122.06 Take profit: 121.76

analytics5d14191639461.png

For the pound / yen pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are : 138.04, 137.60, 137.30, 136.92, 136.09, 135.77 and 135.32. Here, we continue to monitor the formation of the potential for the top of June 18. The continuation of the movement to the top, is expected after the breakdown of 136.92. In this case, the first goal is 137.30. Short-term upward movement, as well as consolidation is in the corridor 137.30 – 137.60. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level of 138.04. The movement to which is expected after the breakdown of the level of 137.60.

Short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 136.09 - 135.77. The breakdown of the latter value will have to the formation of a downward structure. Here, the potential target is 135.32.

The main trend - the formation of potential for the top of June 18.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 136.92 Take profit: 137.30

Buy: 137.32 Take profit: 137.60

Sell: 136.09 Take profit: 135.77

Sell: 135.76 Take profit: 135.34

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of ETH/USD for 27/06/2019:

Crypto Industry News:

The recent Firefox vulnerability has been exploited in the attacks on the leading cryptographic exchange and Coinbase portfolio service, according to a published Tweet by Philip Martin, a Coinbase security researcher.

As Martin discovered, the critical gap of the so-called zero-day in the Mozilla Firefox browser, which was announced on June 18, appeared along with another zero-day vulnerability, through which Coinbase employees became the target of the hackers.

"On Monday, the Coinbase stock market detected and blocked an attacker's attempt to use a zero-day vulnerability, along with a separate vulnerability that allowed attacks targeting Coinbase employees "- we read in the Coinbase Security Expert Tweet.

Martin also reported that Coinbase is not the only cryptographic company to which these attacks relate, adding that the stock market is working on passing information to other companies, which in its opinion were also the target of hackers. He stressed that the security team found no evidence of any impact of attacks on Coinbase customers.

Technical Overview:

The ETH/USD pair might have completed now the impulsive cycle in wave (3) at the level of $362.60 and the market might have started the corrective wave (4). The key level now is the technical support and the top of the wave (1) at the level of $278.14, because any violation of this level will invalidate the bullish impulsive count. The short-term key technical support is located at the level of $315.49. Please notice the clear bearish divergence between the price and the momentum oscillator, which is the first clue that supports the bearish outlook.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - $399.14

WR2 - $359.00

WR1 - $340.76

Weekly Pivot - $299.53

WS1 - $285.30

WS2 - $243.70

WS3 - $227.28

Trading Recommendations:

The best strategy in the current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is still up. All the shorter timeframe moves are being treated as a correction inside of the uptrend. The current cycle is wave 4, which is a corrective wave and after is completed, the uptrend should resume

analytics5d140d623aa63.jpg

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of BTC/USD for 27/06/2019:

Crypto Industry News:

The potential reduction in interest rates by the US central bank is clearly one of the reasons for the recent rise of Bitcoin, said Jim Reid, a board member of Deutsche Bank in a TV interview. Reid, the head of global core credit strategy at Deutsche Bank, stated: "If central banks are so aggressive, alternative currencies will start to be a bit more attractive'.

Reid referred to the recent Fed chairman, Jerome Powell, who said yesterday that the central bank is considering a rate cut under the conditions of current economic uncertainty and inflationary risk. As a result, the US dollar fell yesterday in comparison to large fiat currencies, noting a three-month drop in relation to the euro, which was allegedly triggered by expectations for repeated interest rate cuts by the Fed. Reid also noted that the recent cryptocurrency price jump is partly caused by the upcoming Facebook crypto project - Libra.

Technical Overview:

The BTC/USD pair might have completed the upward impulsive cycle at the level of $13,698 as the top of the wave 5 of the lesser degree was made there. The pair then had made a 13% correction within a matter of minutes and now it is possible the wave A of the corrective cycle is done as well, with the low at the level of $11,714. The overall trend is still up and there are no signs or any trend reversal yet.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - $14,368

WR2 - $12,738

WR1 - $12,143

Weekly Pivot - $10,500

WS1 - $9,956

WS2 - $8,295

WS3 - $7,678

Trading Recommendations:

The best strategy in the current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is still up. All the shorter timeframe moves are being treated as a correction inside of the uptrend. The larget correction is just around the corner, as all the major impulsive waves have been completed.

analytics5d140a99939de.jpg

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of GBP/USD for 27/06/2019:

Technical Overview:

The GBP/USD pair has moved lower to test the support at the level of 1.2668 as the market conditions were overbought and bounced a little from the support. The local high was made at the level of 1.2706, but it is not enough for the bulls to continue the move up. Please notice, that any violation of the support level will lead to an even deeper correction towards the support seen at the level of 1.2605. The larget time frame trend is still down.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.3080

WR2 - 1.2903

WR1 - 1.2852

Weekly Pivot - 1.2673

WS1 - 1.2612

WS2 - 1.2435

WS3 - 1.2368

Trading Recommendations:

The current move up might the beginning of a larger impulsive breakout, so only the buy orders should be opened. The best strategy for this market is to open the buy orders during the local pull-back or larger corrections. Nevertheless, please notice that the larget time frame trend is down, so all the shorter timeframe moves are being treated as a correction inside of the downtrend.

analytics5d1408fcd6989.jpg

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of EUR/USD for 27/06/2019:

Technical Overview:

The EUR/USD pair has moved down to test the technical support located at the level of 1.1347 due to the overbought market conditions and weaker than before momentum oscillator. There is still a chance for a move up if the support holds but if it will not, then the next support is seen at the level of 1.1268. So far the bounce high was made at the level of 1.1390 and the volatility is very low.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.1662

WR2 - 1.1520

WR1 - 1.1459

Weekly Pivot - 1.1309

WS1 - 1.1258

WS2 - 1.1120

WS3 - 1.1064

Trading Recommendations:

The current move up might the beginning of a larger impulsive breakout, so only the buy orders should be opened. The best strategy for this market is to open the buy orders during the local pull-back or larger corrections.

analytics5d1407fb99406.jpg

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR / USD. June 26th. Results of the day. The next macroeconomic report from the States failed

4 hour timeframe

analytics5d1408df646ff.png

The amplitude of the last 5 days (high-low): 67p - 92p - 95p - 37p - 68p.

Average amplitude for the last 5 days: 72p (71p).

Most of Wednesday, June 26, the EUR / USD currency pair was trading in a narrow price range. However, with the opening of the US trading session and the publication of the only important report today, traders became a bit more active and started modest purchases of the US dollar. Orders for durable goods in May decreased by 1.3%, with a forecast of -0.1%. Excluding defense orders - by 0.6%. Without transport, an increase of 0.3% was observed, and while excluding defense and aviation orders, the figure rose by 0.4%. However, from our point of view, the most important indicator fell by 1.3% and turned out to be much worse than forecast, which explains the fall in US currency after lunch. Moreover, purchases of euros are very sluggish. It seems that traders want to forget this report as soon as possible and go back to buying American currency, despite that Jerome Powell's rhetoric remains "dovish". The likelihood of a Fed rate cut at the next meeting is already 90%, and macroeconomic reports from overseas continue to disappoint. In addition, FOMC member James Bullard gave a speech yesterday, and he said that "the time has come for a reinsurance reduction of the key rate". However, according to Bullard, reducing the rate by 0.5% immediately is a lot. Most likely, FOMC members will approve a decline of 0.25%. Well, this is another bad news for the US dollar, but most importantly, as traders interpret it, and especially bears. After all, even a reduction in the rate to 2.25% still leaves the Fed as the leader, since the ECB rate is 0%, and in the coming months, it may go into the negative area. Therefore in any case, monetary easing should have a negative impact on the dollar.

Trading recommendations:

The EUR / USD pair continues to adjust Thus, long positions remain relevant for the euro / dollar pair with the target of 1.1438. On the other hand, the reversal upwards or a rebound of the MACD from the Kijun-Sen line will indicate the completion of the downward correction.

It will be possible to sell a pair of euro / dollar in small lots, if the bears will be able to gain a foothold below the critical line, with targets 1,1296 and 1,1241. In this case, the initiative for the pair EUR / USD may return to the hands of bears.

In addition to the technical picture, we should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanation of the illustration:

Ichimoku indicator:

Tenkan-sen - the red line.

Kijun-sen - the blue line.

Senkou Span A - light brown dotted line.

Senkou Span B - light purple dotted line.

Chinkou Span - green line.

Bollinger Bands indicator:

3 yellow lines.

MACD Indicator:

Red line and histogram with white bars in the indicator window.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP / USD. June 26th. Results of the day. Boris Johnson sets an ultimatum to the European Union

4 hour timeframe

analytics5d1409e3125f2.png

The amplitude of the last 5 days (high-low): 131p - 96p - 104p - 59p - 112p.

Average amplitude for the last 5 days: 100p (90p).

The British pound sterling on Wednesday, June 26, continued a slight downward movement for most of the day, and only during the American trading session the pound began to do a slight growth, as the US failed another macroeconomic report, this time on orders for long-term goods. However, the most interesting information today was related to Boris Johnson, who is the main candidate for the post of prime minister of the country. Johnson, who, incidentally, has not yet won the election, made an official statement in which he urged the European Union to abandon its tough position on the North Irish border. Johnson also said that the UK will not pay 50 billion euros to Brussels unless a new trade agreement is signed. If Brussels does not agree with the requirements of London, then Johnson promised to lead the country according to a "hard" scenario and "come what may", he added. Moreover, this speech by Johnson eclipsed the speech of Mark Carney, who spoke about the monetary policy of the Bank of England. Thus, his speech was much more important for traders than the next attack by Johnson on the EU. Carney said that in the case of "tough" Brexit, all forecasts of economic indicators will be revised, and the regulator will have to stimulate the economy, that is, reduce the key rate. True, the pound sterling also ignored this information, but from a technical point of view, the pound / dollar pair strengthened below the Kijun-Sen line, so the trend for the pair changed to a bearish one. With this reason, the pound has a high chance of heading downwards again.

Trading recommendations:

The currency pair pound / dollar overcame the critical line. Thus, sales of pound sterling with targets are now again relevant to the Senkou Span B line and the support level of 1.2582, but so far, in small lots.

It will be possible to buy the British currency when the pair is fixed above the Kijun-sen line. In this case, the upward trend may resume with the first goal level of 1.2781.

In addition to the technical picture, we should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanation of the illustration:

Ichimoku indicator:

Tenkan-sen - the red line.

Kijun-sen - the blue line.

Senkou Span A - light brown dotted line.

Senkou Span B - light purple dotted line.

Chinkou Span - green line.

Bollinger Bands indicator:

3 yellow lines.

MACD Indicator:

Red line and histogram with white bars in the indicator window.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com