Forecast for AUD / USD pair on August 20, 2019

AUD / USD pair

The Australian dollar continues to spin up on the axis, expressed by the Fibonacci level of 23.6% of the July 19-August 7 fall. On the daily chart, the signal line of the Marlin oscillator continues to move straight up, the target 0.6822 - the correction level of 38.2% - remains relevant.

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On the four-hour chart, the price breaks above the balance line and if successful, the trend balance will shift upward. The signal line of the Marlin oscillator will go into the growth zone (above zero) around the same time into the zone of positive values. A signal for growth will be the release of prices above the August 16 high at 0.6797.

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Overview of GBP/USD on August 20th. Forecast according to the "Regression Channels". Boris Johnson offered Donald Tusk to

4-hour timeframe

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Technical data:

The upper linear regression channel: direction – down.

The lower linear regression channel: direction – down.

The moving average (20; smoothed) – sideways.

CCI: 64.6215

Boris Johnson in his first month as Prime Minister of Great Britain walks on a thin blade. With great fanfare and a wide margin, a victory was won overall rivals in the party, and then a month passed. The pound fell to historic lows, the British population began to prepare for Brexit, as for the Third World War, stocking up on food, medicines and other essentials, while a conspiracy is brewing in the British Parliament against Boris Johnson, who is led by Labor leader Jeremy Corbyn. The only reason for the conspiracy – to prevent "hard" Brexit. It turns out that the "hard" scenario of the "divorce" with the EU will shock most of the politicians, as it may drive the country into a hopeless crisis for many years, and also lead to the holding of referendums on independence in Northern Ireland and Scotland, the majority of which supports the option to "stay in the European Union." And the outcome of the referendum, no one can predict. The main complaint against Boris Johnson is that he does not try too hard to negotiate a new "deal" with the European Union. Theresa May went to Brussels for talks with EU leaders almost every two weeks. Johnson did not meet with Tusk, Juncker and the company during the month of the country's reign, however, he repeatedly suggested revising the terms of the "deal" in words. The European Union, of course, refused every time, since it did not receive any reasonable proposal. More precisely, he simply "did not receive any proposal." There are only Johnson's statements to the media, which create the appearance of a desperate desire to start new negotiations with the EU, to remove from the text of the agreement the paragraph on "backstop" and divorce amicably. However, what Britain would do in this case was not clear. Yesterday, Boris Johnson said that "he is confident that the European Union will change its mind and compromise in the end" and sent a letter to Donald Tusk, the head of the European Council, with a proposal to revise the terms of Brexit. In particular, Britain may waive the condition that Northern Ireland will remain part of the EU Customs Union during the transition period, but Johnson wants no rigid borders between Ireland and Northern Ireland. Most likely, Johnson's new attack will end, like all previous ones, with Brussels' refusal of any negotiations. That's the situation in the British Kingdom for a little more than 2 months before the next date X – October 31.

Nearest support levels:

S1 – 1.2115

S2 – 1.2085

S3 – 1.2054

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 – 1.2146

R2 – 1.2177

R3 – 1.2207

Trading recommendations:

The GBP/USD pair formally continues its upward movement, very weak. Thus, you can consider buying pound with the target of 1.2177 and 1.2207, but with minimum lots. It will be possible to sell the pound sterling after fixing the pair below the moving average, which will return the initiative to the bears in the market.

In addition to the technical picture, you should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanation of illustrations:

The upper linear regression channel – the blue line of the unidirectional movement.

The lower linear regression channel – the purple line of the unidirectional movement.

CCI – the blue line in the indicator regression window.

The moving average (20; smoothed) – blue line on the price chart.

Murray levels – multi-colored horizontal stripes.

Haiken Ashi is an indicator that colors bars in blue or purple.

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Indicator analysis. Daily review on August 20, 2019 for the EUR / USD currency pair

Trend analysis (Fig. 1).

Today, the pair will try again to break down the support line 1.1065 (yellow dashed line), but this will most likely happen after lunch. Before lunch (9.00 Universal time), the price will move up, with the target of 1.1094 - a pullback level of 14.6% (yellow dashed line).

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Fig. 1 (daily chart).

Comprehensive analysis:

- indicator analysis - down;

- Fibonacci levels - up;

- volumes - up;

- candlestick analysis - up;

- trend analysis - up;

- Bollinger Lines - down;

- weekly schedule - down.

General conclusion: up.

The scenario with a low probability is an upward movement with the first target of 1.1115 - an upper fractal.

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EUR/USD: plan for the European session on August 20. A return to the level of 1.1095 will strengthen the position of buyers

To open long positions on EURUSD you need:

Yesterday, euro buyers managed to keep the pair below the lows of the previous week, which preserves the likelihood of building an upward correction. This will require good data on Germany and producer prices, as well as an exit and consolidation above the resistance of 1.1095, which will increase demand for the euro and lead to the renewal of a larger high of 1.1121, where I recommend taking profits. However, the main target of the bulls will be the 1.1153 level , which will allow us to build a new upward trend in the euro. In case the EUR/USD declines in the morning, it is best to return to long positions to rebound from a low of 1.1059.

To open short positions on EURUSD you need:

Bears need to form a false breakdown in the resistance area of 1.1095, which will only strengthen the downward trend and lead to an update of the low of the last week, which was not done yesterday. However, the farther target of the sellers will be support levels of 1.1028 and 1.0990, where I recommend taking profits. The lack of important news, apart from the report on Germany, could make it possible for EUR/USD to go above the resistance of 1.1095 in the morning. In this scenario, it is best to open short positions on a rebound from the highs of 1.1121 and 1.1153.

Signals of indicators:

Moving averages

Trading is carried out in the region of 30 and 50 moving average, which indicates a slowdown in the downward trend.

Bollinger bands

A break of the lower border of the indicator in the region of 1.1070 will strengthen the bearish trend.

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Description of indicators

  • MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow
  • MA (moving average) 30 days - green
  • MACD: Fast EMA 12, Slow EMA 26, SMA 9
  • Bollinger Bands 20
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Technical analysis of ETH/USD for 20/08/2019:

Crypto Industry News:

The Japanese cryptocurrency exchange Rakuten Wallet began trading a year after acquiring Everybody's Bitcoin.

Rakuten Wallet, which is a subsidiary of the Japanese e-commerce giant Rakuten, said that spot trading with three cryptocurrencies - Bitcoin, Ethereum and Bitcoin Cash - has already entered into force. In the future, developers plan to release an application for iOS and Android, the use of which will be mandatory for deposits and withdrawals.

"Customers who already have a bank account with Rakuten Bank will be able to easily open an account with Rakuten Wallet simply by entering the required information in the online application form"- we read in a press release.

Rakuten acquired Everybody's Bitcoin in August 2018 for $ 2.4 million. The management originally announced the upcoming premiere in April this year, but progress seemed to stall. The stock market joins the rapidly growing ecosystem in the Japanese market, and many competitors are fighting for a piece of domestic cryptocurrency trading.

Last month, Tokyo announced it wanted to create a cryptocurrency-based counterpart to SWIFT, the global payment settlement network, as part of a G7-approved move.

Technical Market Overview:

The bulls on the ETH/USD market have managed to move the prices higher towards the level of $197.70, which is a 38% retracement of the previous swing down. So far the bulls did not have the strength to break through this level, but if they will, then the next target is seen at the level of $215.63. There are two more retracements to hit as well and they are located at the level of $205.68 and $213.45. The immediate technical support is now located at the level of $190.94.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - $257.46

WR2 - $236.43

WR1 - $213.67

Weekly Pivot - $193.41

WS1 - $171.74

WS2 - $150.23

WS3 - $128.88

Trading Recommendations:

The best strategy in the current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is still up. All the shorter timeframe moves are being treated as a correction inside of the uptrend. The current cycle is wave 2 of the higher degree and it might have been completed, so the uptrend should resume soon. The global investors are waiting for a breakout above the level of $238.68 to confirm the resumption of the uptrend.

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Overview of EUR/USD on August 20th. Forecast according to the "Regression Channels". Updating the lows of the pair "just

4-hour timeframe

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Technical data:

The upper linear regression channel: direction – down.

The lower linear regression channel: direction – sideways.

The moving average (20; smoothed) – down.

CCI: -77.9141

On August 20, the EUR/USD currency pair completed a round of upward correction near the Murray level of "2/8" - 1.1108, from which it rebounded. Now, the euro/dollar pair is waiting for a new decline, which fundamental data will not be able to prevent since the calendar of macroeconomic events of the US and the European Union is empty for the next two days. Yesterday's report on inflation in the European Union confirmed only what most traders already knew and understood. Macroeconomic "figures" of the European Union continue to fall amid the global recession and trade wars. In July, inflation was only 1.0% and continued its slowdown. Based on this, the chances of easing the monetary policy of the European Central Bank at the next meeting are significantly increased, since the regulator simply does not have anything else. Mario Draghi left to finalize in his post only a few months, but these months can be very "fun". And Christine Lagarde will have to plunge headlong into the ultra-soft monetary policy of the ECB from November 1, 2019. By the way, we would like to note that Donald Trump has not yet launched a trade war against the European Union. A few months ago, the US leader wanted to introduce duties on the products of the EU engineering industry but postponed his decision for six months. What will happen if closer to the New Year, the odious US President still begins to put pressure on the European Union? EU industrial production is already declining, and the index of business activity in the manufacturing sector is almost zero. Thus, the current "bad" economic situation in the European Union is still flowers in comparison with what may be in the coming months/years. That is why the long-term outlook of the European currency looks doubtful now. In order for traders to change their mood, global changes are needed, for example, the total reduction of the Fed's key rate by 1.0% - 1.5%. Or the final end of trade wars. First – it is unlikely to happen in the near future. The second – it can be decided by the election of a new US president in 2020. Thus, until the end of 2019, we do not expect a change in the global trend, if the fundamental background does not change abruptly and unexpectedly.

Nearest support levels:

S1 – 1.1047

S2 – 1.0986

S3 – 1.0925

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 – 1.1108

R2 – 1.1169

R3 – 1.1230

Trading recommendations:

The euro/dollar pair completed the correction round very quickly. Thus, it is recommended to sell the pair again with the targets of 1.1047 and 1.0986 until the next turn of the Heiken Ashi indicator upwards. In general, short positions can also be held as long as the price is below the moving average. The long positions are still risky now.

In addition to the technical picture, you should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanation of illustrations:

The upper linear regression channel – the blue line of the unidirectional movement.

The lower linear regression channel – the purple line of the unidirectional movement.

CCI – the blue line in the indicator window.

The moving average (20; smoothed) – blue line on the price chart.

Murray levels – multi-colored horizontal stripes.

Haiken Ashi is an indicator that colors bars in blue or purple.

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Technical analysis of BTC/USD for 20/08/2019:

Crypto Industry News:

The leading cryptocurrency exchange Binance launches an open Blockchain project called "Venus" focused on the development of local stablecoins around the world.

In an announcement published on August 19, the stock exchange claims it is well prepared to launch such a monetary ecosystem in the light of its existing technology, Binance Chain, a wide user base and already established global compliance measures.

Stock market managers say they are seeking partnerships with governments, corporations, technology companies and other crypto and Blockchain projects to develop a new monetary ecosystem that will strengthen both developed and developing countries. According to the announcement, the goal of the project is to build a new open alliance and a sustainable community that will acquire partners who have an impact on a global scale.

Binance Chain has already launched several native asset-related stablecoins, including Bitcoin-related BTCB and BGBP-related Stablecoin. Binance says it will use its existing infrastructure and experience in various regulatory systems to standardize the compliance check system and build a multi-dimensional collaboration network for the Venus project.

The ambitious new Binance venture seems to compete directly with the plans of Facebook's social media giant, planning to launch a stablecoin linked to fiduciary currencies called Libra, which would power the global cryptographic payment network embedded in three wholly-owned applications: WhatsApp, Messenger, and Instagram.

Technical Market Overview:

The BTC/USD pair has retraced 50% of the last wave down. The price tested the level of $10,840 and currently is still trading with high momentum. The bulls must move the prices higher towards the level of $11,027 in order to control the market. Any violation of this level will be a good signal of a possible further move higher towards the level of 61% retracement at $11,177 and then to technical resistance located at $11,855. The larger timeframe trend remains up.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - $13,461

WR2 - $12,432

WR1 - $11,161

Weekly Pivot - $10,133

WS1 - $9,200

WS2 - $8,268

WS3 - $7,027

Trading Recommendations:

The best strategy in the current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is still up. All the shorter timeframe moves are being treated as a correction inside of the uptrend. The larger degree WXY correction might have been completed and the market might be ready for another impulsive wave up of a higher degree. Any violation of the level of $9,049 invalidates the bullish impulsive scenario.

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Technical analysis of GBP/USD for 20/08/2019

Technical market overview:

The GBP/USD pair has broken through the descending trendline resistance around the level of 1.2130 and made a new local high at the level of 1.2175. Since then, the price pulled-back a little in order to test the trendline breakout around the level of 1.2130 again. The move-up is not very fast and sudden, but step by step the bulls are continuing to cover the higher ground. The next target for them is located at the level of 1.2209 and then at 1.2248. The positive and strong momentum supports the short-term bullish outlook towards these levels.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.2378

WR2 - 1.2273

WR1 - 1.2217

Weekly Pivot Point - 1.2114

WS1 - 1.2060

WS2 - 1.1953

WS3 - 1.1902

Trading Recommendations:

The best strategy for current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is down. All upward moves will be treated as local corrections in the downtrend. In order to reverse the trend from down to up, the key level for bulls is seen at 1.2429. As long as the price is trading below this level, the downtrend continues.

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NZD / USD: What to do with the New Zealander?

The New Zealand dollar receded from the shock after an unexpected decision by the RBNZ to cut the interest rate by 50 basis points at once. Impulsively, the pair updated the annual (and simultaneously three-year) minimum of 0.6373 but then corrected to the area of the 64th figure, where it drifts for the second week. Nevertheless, despite fading of the downward momentum, the bearish trend is still in force. Apparently, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand has not yet put an end to the process of lowering the interest rate. Therefore, "kiwi" cannot only make a retest of the annual minimum in the near future but can also reach the key support level of 0.6350 at the lower line of the Bollinger Bands indicator on the daily chart.

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Until the end of this year, only two RBNZ meetings remained on September 25 and November 13. According to most experts, the regulator will reduce the interest rate by another 25 basis points by 0.75% at one of these meetings. The implementation of such a scenario does not exclude the head of the New Zealand Central Bank Adrian Orr. Moreover, immediately after the meeting, he announced that the regulator may very well have to deal with negative rates. In the event of a crisis, the regulator can reduce the key interest rate to -0.35%. At the same time, Orr is skeptical of asset purchase programs and in his opinion, such steps are "less attractive tool for easing monetary policy."

One noteworthy fact is worth mentioning here. Fairly strong data on labor market growth came out in New Zealand. The unemployment rate in the second quarter fell to a record low of 3.9% with a growth forecast of 4.3%. The employment growth rate increased significantly after a reduction to -0.2% and the indicator also jumped to 0.8% in quarterly terms. This is the best result since the third quarter of last year. Similarly, the wage dynamics index showed a positive trend after a three-month decline, it rose to 0.8% with a growth forecast of 0.7%. In other words, almost all indicators of the new Zealand labor market suddenly came out in the "green zone". However, the regulator actually ignored (though noted) this fact, taking the course on aggressive easing of monetary policy parameters.

All of these suggest that internal macroeconomic statistics play an important, but far from the decisive role of RBNZ members in the context of determining further steps. The focus is on the global trade conflict and the associated uncertainty. according to Adrian Orr, the trade war negatively affects consumer confidence, as well as the investment climate and the exports actually paralyze business activity in the country. The words of the head of the RBNZ are also confirmed by "dry numbers". In particular, the index of business activity in the manufacturing sector, amounted to 48.2 points, falling to a key mark of 50, which is the boundary of expansion. Previously, the figures were at 51.3 and 48.2 points in June and July, respectively. Consequently, business activity narrowed down in this area.

In addition, the New Zealander has recently lost another "trump card" in the form of an increase in the price index for dairy products. During the July GTD auction, trading closed in positive territory, although before that, the index showed a downward trend. At the first August auction on August 6, the indicator returned again to the negative area, reaching -2.6%. The second August auction will be held today and according to most experts, the index will show negative dynamics and will go down deeper into the negative area. For the economy of New Zealand, the cost of milk and the demand for it are extremely important. Thus, the current situation can put significant pressure on the national currency. The island nation exports powdered milk powder and other dairy products mainly to China and to European countries.

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Thus, the results of today's GTD auction may put additional pressure on the NZD/USD pair, or provoke a correctional pullback. However, trusting today's price fluctuations is not worth it, considering the upcoming economic symposium in the American Jackson Hole. Adrian Orr has already announced his participation in this forum, which means that he will be able to comment on the latest trends in light of the future prospects of the RBNZ monetary policy. If he takes a "dovish" position, hinting at the likelihood of aggressive measures to ease monetary policy, the New Zealander will again update the annual minimum regardless of the results of today's GTD auction.

Technically, the pair is trading in a downtrend on the daily price chart, which is confirmed by the generated bearish signal of "Parade of Lines". All the lines of the Ichimoku Kinko Hyo indicator are above the price chart. The pair is also located between the lower and middle lines of the Bollinger Bands indicator, which act as support and resistance levels and correspond to 0.6350 and 0.6510 marks.

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for 20/08/2019

Technical market overview:

The EUR/USD pair has broken below the 61% of the Fibonacci retracement of the last swing up and is currently hovering around this level. The local low was made at the level of 1.1066. The next technical support is located at the level of 1.1034-1.1027 and breakout below this level opens the road towards the level of 1.0950. The bulls should now defend this zone, but it does not look like they will as the bears have full control over the market. The market conditions are now oversold extremely and the momentum remains weak and negative. The larger timeframe trend remains down.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.1330

WR2 - 1.1278

WR1 - 1.1161

Weekly Pivot Point - 1.1117

WS1 - 1.1003

WS2 - 1.0951

WS3 - 1.0838

Trading Recommendations:

The best strategy for current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is down. All upward moves will be treated as local corrections in the downtrend. The downtrend is valid as long as it is treminated or the level of 1.1445 clearly violated. There is an Ending Diagonal price pattern visible on the larget timeframes that indicate a possible downtrend termination soon.

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Trading plan for EURUSD for August 20, 2019

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Technical outlook:

The EUR/USD pair rallied close to 1.1120 levels yesterday in line with the previously presented forecast . It might possibly consolidate in this zone (1.1060-1.1110), for a while before breaking lower to fresh levels below 1.1020. The above count looks the most probable at the moment but let us also be prepared for an alternate count which could indicate a potential rally towards 1.1260 levels before reversing lower again. Please note that price resistance stays at 1.1285/90 followed by 1.1412 respectively. Also note that this bearish move could be the last low required to complete the first wave lower from 1.2500 highs. Potential drop could see 1.0900/50 levels as the termination point of Wave A, within A-B-C drop that began from 1.2550 levels earlier. At the moment, we remain short with risk above 1.1285/90 levels.

Trading plan:

Remain short from 1.1150 levels earlier and also from 1.1120 levels yesterday as discussed . Stop at 1.1285, target at 1.0900/50 levels

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Technical analysis: Important Intraday Levels For EUR/USD, August 20, 2019

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When the European market opens, some economic data will be released such as German PPI m/m. Today, the US will not publish any economic data, so amid the reports, the EUR/USD pair will move with low to medium volatility during this day. TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVELS: Breakout BUY Level: 1.1137. Strong Resistance: 1.1131. Original Resistance: 1.1120. Inner Sell Area: 1.1109. Target Inner Area: 1.1083. Inner Buy Area: 1.1057. Original Support: 1.1046. Strong Support: 1.1035. Breakout SELL Level: 1.1029. (Disclaimer)

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Technical analysis: Important Intraday Levels for USD/JPY, August 20, 2019

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Asia and the US will not release any economic data today. So there is a probability the USD/JPY pair will move with low to medium volatility during this day. TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVELS: Resistance.3 : 107.15. Resistance. 2: 106.92. Resistance. 1: 106.70. Support. 1: 106.47. Support. 2: 106.27. Support. 3: 106.06. (Disclaimer)The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Forecast for GBP/USD on August 20,2019

GBP/USD

Over the past day, the situation for the British pound has not changed, especially according to indicators. On the daily chart, the Marlin oscillator is approaching the boundary with the growth territory. From this boundary, the zero line, there may be a downward turn, but there may also be a signal overcoming it with a subsequent increase in the price to the magnetic point at 1.2230, where the price channel lines and the Fibonacci level of 223.6% converge. This can happen after the price consolidates above the Fibonacci level of 238.2% (1.2154). Today the CBI balance of production orders in the UK for the current month will be published, the forecast is -25 versus -34 in July, this could be a reason for the pound to grow.

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On the four-hour chart, the Marlin maintains indications of a rising trend; the price is reliably above the balance lines and MACD. The advantage is on the side of the rising scenario.

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On the other hand, upon reaching the Fibonacci level of 238.2%, the correction may be completed. A sign of this will be price consolidation under yesterday's low, below 1.2104. Then we expect the pound to decline in the range of 1.2032/50, formed by the Fibonacci level of 261.8% and the MACD line on H4.

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Forecast for EUR/USD on August 20, 2019

EUR/USD

The eurozone balance of payments for June published yesterday showed a decrease from 30.3 billion euros to 18.4 billion against expectations of an increase to 32.2 billion euros. The final CPI score for July was lowered from 1.1% y/y to 1.0% y/y. The euro fell 11 points, once again finding support at the Fibonacci level of 123.6% (1.1074).

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On the daily chart, the signal line of the Marlin Oscillator maintains a rising direction, the growth potential as part of the consolidation is preserved ahead of the Jackson Hole Symposium.

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On the four-hour chart, the oscillator line approached the boundary with the growth zone. This zero line is an independent resistance for the indicator, especially in a calm market. In the consolidation range, the price can make a false puncture of yesterday's high, thus, the correction will be 1.1066-1.1120.

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GBP/USD approaching resistance, potential drop!

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GBPUSD is approaching our first resistance where we might be seeing a drop below this level.

Entry: 1.2152

Why it's good : Horizontal pullback resistance, 23.6% Fibonacci retracement, 61.8% Fibonacci extension

Stop Loss : 1.2358

Why it's good : Horizontal pullback resistance, 38.2% Fibonacci retracement

Take Profit : 1.1904

Why it's good: Horizontal swing low support

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USD/CAD approaching resistance, potential reversal

Price is approaching its resistance where a reversal is expected.

Entry: 1.3342

Why it's good : 61.8% Fibonacci extension, 76.4% & 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, horizontal swing high resistance

Stop Loss : 1.3404

Why it's good : 100% Fibonacci extension

Take Profit : 1.3289

Why it's good: 61.8% Fibonacci extension

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USD/JPY approaching resistance, potential drop!

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USDJPY is approaching 1st resistance at 106.71, potential drop could occur!

Entry :106.71

Why it's good : horizontal pullback resistance

61.8% Fibonacci extension

38.2% Fibonacci retracement

Take Profit : 105.73

Why it's good : 61.8% Fibonacci retracement

61.8% Fibonacci extension

Horizontal swing low support

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Fractal analysis of the main currency pairs on August 20

Forecast for August 20:

Analytical review of currency pairs on the scale of H1:

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For the euro / dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.1124, 1.1102, 1.1073, 1.1062, 1.1032 and 1.1011. Here, we are following the development of the downward structure of August 13. Short-term movement to the bottom is expected in the range of 1.1073 - 1.1062. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to a pronounced movement. Here, the goal is 1.1032. Price consolidation is near this level and hence the likelihood of a correction. For the potential value for the downward trend, we consider the level of 1.1032.

Short-term upward movement is possibly in the range of 1.1088 - 1.1102. The breakdown of the last value will lead to a long correction. Here, the target is 1.1124. This level is a key support for the downward structure.

The main trend is the downward cycle of August 13.

Trading recommendations:

Buy 1.1088 Take profit: 1.1100

Buy 1.1105 Take profit: 1.1122

Sell: 1.1060 Take profit: 1.1035

Sell: 1.1030 Take profit: 1.1011

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For the pound / dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.2245, 1.2224, 1.2191, 1.2169, 1.2135, 1.2117 and 1.2081. Here, we follow the development of the ascending cycle of August 12. Short-term upward movement is expected in the range of 1.2169 - 1.2191. The breakdown of the last value should be accompanied by a pronounced upward movement. In this case, the target is 1.2224. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level of 1.2245. Upon reaching which, we expect consolidation, as well as a pullback to the bottom.

Short-term downward movement is possibly in the range of 1.2135 - 1.2117. The breakdown of the last value will lead to a long correction. Here, the target is 1.2081. This level is a key support for the downward structure.

The main trend is the downward cycle of July 31.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.2170 Take profit: 1.2190

Buy: 1.2195 Take profit: 1.2224

Sell: 1.2135 Take profit: 1.2118

Sell: 1.2115 Take profit: 1.2081

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For the dollar / franc pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 0.9949, 0.9923, 0.9883, 0.9854, 0.9816, 0.9768, 0.9745 and 0.9714. Here, we follow the ascending structure of August 13. The continuation of the movement to the top is expected after the breakdown of the level of 0.9816. In this case, the target is 0.9854. Short-term upward movement, as well as consolidation is in the range of 0.9854 - 0.9883. The breakdown of the level of 0.9883 should be accompanied by a pronounced upward movement. Here, the target is 0.9923. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level of 0.9949. Upon reaching which, we expect consolidation, as well as a pullback to the bottom.

Short-term downward movement is possibly in the range of 0.9768 - 0.9745. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the target is 0.9714. This level is a key support for the top.

The main trend is the upward cycle of August 13.

Trading recommendations:

Buy : 0.9816 Take profit: 0.9854

Buy : 0.9856 Take profit: 0.9881

Sell: 0.9768 Take profit: 0.9747

Sell: 0.9743 Take profit: 0.9715

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For the dollar / yen pair, the key levels on the scale are : 108.62, 108.14, 107.45, 106.91, 106.35, 105.94, 105.64 and 105.01. Here, we continue to monitor the ascending structure from August 12. The continuation of the movement to the top is expected after the breakdown of the level of 106.91. In this case, the target is 107.45, wherein consolidation is near this level. The breakdown of the level of 107.45 should be accompanied by a pronounced upward movement. Here, the goal is 108.14. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level of 108.62. Upon reaching which, we expect a pullback to the bottom.

The range of 105.94 - 105.64 is a key support for the top. Its passage at the price will lead to the development of a downward movement. In this case, the target is 105.01.

The main trend: building potential for the top of August 12.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 106.91 Take profit: 107.43

Buy : 107.47 Take profit: 108.14

Sell: Take profit:

Sell: 105.62 Take profit: 105.04

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For the Canadian dollar / US dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.3445, 1.3422, 1.3385, 1.3361, 1.3329, 1.3288, 1.3265, 1.3240 and 1.3194. Here, we are following the development of the local ascendant structure of August 9. The continuation of the movement to the top is expected after the breakdown of the level of 1.3330. In this case, the target is 1.3361. Price consolidation is in the range of 1.3361 - 1.3385. The breakdown of the level of 1.3385 will allow us to count on movement towards a potential target - 1.3422. Upon reaching this level, we expect consolidation in the range of 1.3422 - 1.3444, as well as a pullback to the bottom.

A short-term downward movement is possibly in the range of 1.3288 - 1.3265. The breakdown of the last value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the target is 1.3240. This level is a key support for the top.

The main trend is the local ascending structure of August 9.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.3330 Take profit: 1.3360

Buy : 1.3387 Take profit: 1.3422

Sell: 1.3288 Take profit: 1.3266

Sell: 1.3264 Take profit: 1.3240

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For the Australian dollar / US dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are : 0.6967, 0.6922, 0.6902, 0.6869, 0.6843, 0.6803, 0.6762, 0.6733 and 0.6675. Here, we are following the development of the ascending structure of August 7, and the price has formed a small potential for the top of August 14. The continuation of the upward movement is expected after the breakdown of the level of 0.6803. In this case, the first target is 0.6843. Short-term upward movement, as well as consolidation is in the range of 0.6843 - 0.6869. The breakdown of the level of 0.6870 should be accompanied by a pronounced upward movement. Here, the target is 0.6902. Consolidation is in the corridor 0.6902 - 0.6922. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level of 0.6967. Upon reaching which, we expect a pullback to the bottom.

We expect a consolidated movement in the range of 0.6762 - 0.6733. The breakdown of the level of 0.6733 will lead to the development of a downward structure. In this case, the potential target is 0.6675.

The main trend is the ascending structure of August 7, the correction stage.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 0.6805 Take profit: 0.6840

Buy: 0.6844 Take profit: 0.6867

Sell : Take profit :

Sell: 0.6730 Take profit: 0.6680

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For the euro / yen pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 119.40, 118.65, 118.22, 117.58, 117.16 and 116.54. Here, we are following the development of local potential for the bottom of August 13. Short-term downward movement is expected in the range 117.58 - 117.16. The breakdown of the latter value will allow us to expect movement to a potential target - 116.54. Consolidation is near this level.

Short-term upward movement is expected in the range of 118.22 - 118.65. The breakdown of the last value will have the formation of an ascending structure for the top. Here, the first goal is 119.40.

The main trend is the formation of a local descending structure of August 13.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 118.22 Take profit: 118.62

Buy: 118.70 Take profit: 119.40

Sell: 117.56 Take profit: 117.18

Sell: 117.14 Take profit: 116.55

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For the pound / yen pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are : 132.17, 131.23, 130.57, 129.66, 127.94, 127.33, 126.48 and 125.57. Here, we follow the development of the ascending structure of August 12. Short-term upward movement is expected in the range 129.00 - 129.66. The breakdown of the last value will lead to a pronounced upward movement. Here, the target is 130.57. Short-term upward movement, as well as consolidation is in the range of 130.57 - 131.23. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level of 132.17. Upon reaching which, we expect consolidation, as well as a pullback to the bottom.

Short-term downward movement is possibly in the range of 127.94 - 127.33. The breakdown of the latter value will favor the development of a downward structure. Here, the first goal is 126.48. For the potential value, we consider the level of 125.57.

The main trend is building potential for the top of August 12.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 129.67 Take profit: 130.55

Buy: 130.60 Take profit: 131.20

Sell: 127.30 Take profit: 126.50

Sell: 126.44 Take profit: 125.60

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

AUD / USD vs USD / CAD vs NZD / USD vs #USDX. Comprehensive analysis of movement options from August 19, 2019 APLs &

Minor (H4)

Let us consider the comprehensive analysis of the development options for the movement of the currency instruments AUD / USD vs USD / CAD vs NZD / USD vs #USDX from August 19, 2019 on the Minor operational scale (daily timeframe)

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US Dollar Index

From August 19, 2019, the development of the movement of the dollar index #USDX will be determined by working out and the direction of the breakdown of the range :

resistance level - local maximum of 98.34;

support level of 97.95 (upper boundary of the 1/2 Median Line channel Minuette operational scale fork)

The breakdown of the support level of 97.95 is an option for the development of the #USDX movement in 1/2 Median Line Minuette channel (97.95 - 97.65 - 97.35), and when the breakdown of the lower boundary (97.35) of this channel occurs, then the downward movement of the dollar index can continue to the equilibrium zone (97.05 - 96.60 - 96.10) Minuette operational scale fork.

Updating the local maximum of 98.34 will make the development of the upward movement #USDX to the goals relevant - the initial SSL line (98.60) of the Minuette operational scale fork - the UTL control line (98.83) of the Minor operational scale fork - control line UTL Minuette (99.05) - warning lines UWL38.2 Minuette (99.25) - warning lines UWL61.8 Minuette (99.65).

The markup of #USDX motion options from August 19, 2019 is shown in the animated chart.

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The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

The euro will continue to focus on falling

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Last week, the EUR/USD pair was a step away from updating its annual low and found a local trough at 1.1065.

A decrease in the consumer sentiment index from the University of Michigan to its lowest level over the past seven months somewhat cooled the outburst of the "bears" in EUR/USD. However, this did not force them to abandon their plans.

The weakness of the European economy, the focus of the European Central Bank (ECB) on easing monetary policy, as well as increasing political risks in the region make the euro currency vulnerable. You should not be surprised then at the increase in the chances of its decline by the end of this month to $1.1. A week ago, the derivatives market estimated the likelihood of such a scenario to be realized at more than 16%, while now these chances are 49%.

Obviously, the policy of American protectionism has a more devastating effect on China and the eurozone than on the United States. This is evidenced by the fact that an industry from the eurozone had plummet into an abyss, and the fall of 0.1% of German GDP in the second quarter. Bloomberg analysts predict a further decline in German purchasing managers' indices in August, which increases the risks of a technical recession in the largest currency bloc economy. The divergence of economic growth between the EU and the US is well traced in the dynamics of such an indicator as the index of economic surprises. This fact does not allow the bulls to sleep peacefully for the euro.

If last year investors still had hope that the eurozone would get on its feet and begin to accelerate, then this year it seems that they will be disappointed. The United States still looks like an island of stability in the ocean of world recession.

The "bearish" factor for the euro is also the deterioration of the political landscape in the EU. In Italy, a split in the ruling coalition allowed the country's deputy prime minister, Matteo Salvini, to initiate a motion of no confidence in the head of government, Giuseppe Conte. Early Parliamentary elections loomed on the horizon, and the flight of investors from the Italian debt market was reflected in the increase in the differential yield of local and German government bonds.

On the contrary, the greenback is doing well. Of course, the USD index rally complicates the life of US exporters and helps reduce corporate profits, but this is an objective process. When rates on government bonds in the United States are higher than in other countries, and the US economy looks better, the dollar, it would seem, is doomed to strengthen. However, there is a fly in the ointment - US President Donald Trump's dissatisfaction with the Fed's actions and, as a result, a possible reduction in the rate of federal funds by the end of this year from 2.25% to 1.75%.

However, it is unlikely that the Chairman of the Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell in Jackson Hole, will want to signal a cut in interest rates by 50 basis points at once in September. As for the minutes of the July meeting, it can show the arguments of dissenters who opposed for the FOMC members to ease monetary policy. It is assumed that this will support the EUR/USD bears. In such conditions, the continuation of the fall of the main currency pair seems quite logical.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR/USD: Waiting for the $1.10 mark?

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Last week turned out to be favorable for the US currency. The dollar recovered against key competitors with the exception of the pound. Reports from the United States confirmed the recent statements by the head of the Fed regarding the sustainability of the economy. However, they are not reducing the likelihood of further policy easing in the United States. Markets are estimating a 100% likelihood of a reduction in rates by 25 bps in September. It seems that it will be difficult for dollar fans to keep control over the market.

It is worth noting that while the majority of the Federal Reserve officials did not give clear hints of an early softening of the policy. When the signals of the central bank contradict market expectations, financiers, as a rule, begin to become active in terms of appearances. Now this is not noticeable. Perhaps this has something to do with the Jackson Hole symposium, where they will catch up.

The symposium can be an ideal platform for adjusting market expectations. The mood of traders and investors will depend on the words of Jerome Powell. In addition to the head of the regulator, other officials will speak at this event. Before the symposium, the market will pay attention to the publication of the minutes of the sensational July meeting.

If it turns out that FOMC members advocate lowering rates next month, the US central bank will have to downplay the impact of rising costs and retail sales. It is possible that some FOMC representatives will openly declare the need to soften their policies, although in July the majority was against such a move. There have been some changes since then. In this situation, a full portion of the negative will receive such pairs as USD/JPY and USD/CHF.

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Bulls on the dollar will be happy if financial officials focus on improving macroeconomic statistics. The US currency will receive support, as this will be a hint that the regulator will postpone rate cuts.

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The euro, which fell against the dollar during 4 of the last 5 sessions, is doing poorly. Data on the eurozone were mostly weak. If it goes on like this, the main pair risks breaking the 1.10 mark. The expected market data on business activity in the region may disappoint.

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However, at the end of last week, the single currency was supported by important news from Germany. The German government is preparing to expand public spending in the event of a recession. Monetary stimulation will certainly improve the situation, but before the authorities of Germany announce concrete steps, a month will pass, and maybe more. During this time, the ECB will have time to reduce the rate. The dynamics of the euro will depend on the nature of the incentive measures.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

On the positive: oil starts the week with growth

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Earlier this week, oil quotes showed an upward turn during the Asian session. According to analysts, such growth occurred for the first time in the past seven weeks.

On Monday, August 19, quotes for September futures for the WTI light variety rose 0.97% to $55.40 per barrel, while the Brent brand rose 1.06% to $59.26 per barrel.

According to analysts, two factors provide significant support for black gold prices: the escalation of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East due to damage to the oil infrastructure in Saudi Arabia and the progress in US-Chinese trade negotiations. Recall that tensions in the Middle East provoked the actions of the Yemeni separatists, who attacked an oil factory in Saudi Arabia with the help of drones.

Many analysts are confident that the rise in oil prices in the near future is unlikely due to weak growth in demand. Pressure on the black gold market is also exerted by current OPEC forecasts. The department emphasizes that in 2019, the growth in world oil demand was 40 thousand barrels per day less than previous forecasts. According to experts, it will amount to 1.1 million barrels per day.

In 2020, a slight excess of demand over supply is expected, representatives of the cartel said. Analysts consider this observation to be very important, since OPEC very rarely gives "bearish" forecasts for the oil market.

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The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com