Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations on GBP/USD for December 18, 2014

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Last week, the GBP/USD pair found intraday DEMAND around 1.5550 where many lows were previously established back in November.


The DAILY outlook favors the bullish scenario initially towards 1.5800 then 1.6100 provided that bulls keep defending the lower limit of the current consolidation range around 1.5550.


On the long term, multiple bottoms were established above 1.5550-1.5580, rendering it a prominent DEMAND zone.


Another less probable scenario: a bearish flag pattern that waits for a bearish breakout below 1.5550 (similar to what happened back in October).


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The current outlook is bearish on the 4H chart. Successive lower highs and lows are have been established.


Recently, a consolidation movement ranging between price levels of 1.5770 and 1.5550 took place.


Intraday traders should wait for bullish pull-back towards the recent SUPPLY zone located around 1.5775-1.5810.


Risky traders should note that bearish breakout below 1.5550 directly exposes potential bearish projection targets around 1.1530.


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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for December 18, 2014

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Trading recommendations :



  • The NZD/USD pair is in the short term. The price of the NZD/USD pair is going to turn to bearish sentiment from the level of 0.7769 (61.8% of Fibonacci retracement levels). It should be noted that the last top has set at the level of 0.7780. Accordingly, it will be a good sign to sell below 0.7770 with the first target of 0.7735 to test minor support at this price. Also, it will call for downtrend in order to continue its bearish movement towards 0.7709 (38.2% of Fibonacci retracement levels). At the same time, the stop loss should be placed above 0.7770 at the price of 0.7792. Also, the stop loss has set in 22 pips. Hence, the risk of 22 pips should make a profit of 43 pips at least. Equally important, the support will set at the 0.7700 level. Additionally, it should be noticed that the range today will be about 70 pips because we have a low volatility today.


Notes :



  • According to the previous events, the NZD/USD pair is going to move between 0.7770 and 0.7705.

  • The resistance will be set at the level of 0.7770 and the support has already been placed at the price of 0.77.

  • We expect a new range about 70 pips today.

  • The key level will set at the level of 0.7735 (daily pivot point).

  • The level of 0.7780 is going to represent the double top.


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EUR/NZD analysis for December 18, 2014

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Overview:


In our last analysis, EUR/NZD was trading downward. As we expected, the price tested the level of 1.5862 in a volume above the average. I placed Fibonacci expansion to find potential resistance level. Our Fibonacci expansion 61.8% at the price of 1.6160 was held successfully, and it made price start with an downward movement. According to the 4H time frame, we can observe supply in a volume above the average. I plaved Fibonacci expansion to find potential support levels and got Fibonacci expansion 61.8% at the price of 1.5940 (already broken), Fibonacci expansion 100% at the price of 1.5800 and Fibonacci expansion 161.8% at the price of 1.5590.


Daily Fibonacci pivot levels:


Resistance levels:


R1: 1.6125


R2: 1.6172


R3: 1.6248


Support levels:


S1: 1.5973


S2: 1.5926


S3: 1.5850


Trading recommendations: Be careful when buying the EUR/NZD pair since we have a strong supply on the market


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Technical analysis of USD/CAD for December 18, 2014

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Overview :



  • The USD/CAD pair rebounded at the level of 1.1545 again, and it showed signs of strength following the level of 1.1545 for several days. Additionally, the resistance was broken and turned to support at the same key level (1.1545). Moreover, we expect a range between the levels of 1.1545 and 1.1667. Equally important, the price set above the support from the last week. Consequently, the pair has already formed a strong support at 1.1545. Therefore, the USD/CAD pair started showing signs of bullish market, so the market indicates the bullish opportunity at the level of 1.1545 with the first target of 1.16010, and continues towards the level of 1.6067. On the other hand, the stop loss should always be taken into account, hence it set your stop loss at the 1.1527 price.


Observations :



  • The weekly resistance is going to set at the level of 1.1667. And the triple top will set at the price of 1.1673.

  • The support has already set at 1.1545, this level coincides with the ratio of 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level.

  • We expect a range around 239 pips this week.


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Gold analysis for December 18, 2014

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Overview :


Since our last analysis, gold has been trading downward. The price tested and rejected from the level of 1,183.57. Our corrective Fibonacci expansion 161.8% at the price of 1.195.00 has been held successfully, which caused price to start with an upward movement. I placed Fibonacci retracement to find potential resistance level and got Fibonacci retracement 61.8% at the price of 1.217.00. According to the 1H time frame, we can observe selling climax and after it an absorption volume, which makes gold very risky for selling. So, selling gold at this stage looks risky, watch for potential buying oppoprtunities. According to the daily time frame, we got weak supply in a volume below the average.


Daily pivot Fibonacci points:


Resistance levels:


R1: 1,201.26


R2: 1,206.24


R3: 1,214.30


Support levels:


S1: 1,185.14


S2: 1,180.16


S3: 1,172.10


Trading recommendations: Watch for potential buying opportunities after retracement (buy on the lows).


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#USDX technical analysis for December 18, 2014

The Dollar index made an impressive bullish reversal yesterday after Janet Yellen's speech regarding FED monetary policy. The Dollar index managed to test the important support at 87.50 area and bounce strongly above short-term resistance levels to reach back above 89.


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Red line = resistance


The Dollar index not only broke above the red trend line resistance but also managed to break above the Ichimoku cloud. The decline is now labeled as a corrective action relative to the bigger and longer-term uptrend. Now we are starting a new upward move that, I believe, will finally reach at least 91 which is the bullish flag target that we have been talking about for so long. The Dollar index could see a short-term pullback towards 88.80-88.60 but it will be a buy opportunity, I suppose.


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Blue line = weekly support


The weekly chart has been turned to bullish after yesterday FOMC. The weekly support at 87.75-87.50 was tested successfully yesterday; and the index made an impressive bounce back above 89. The bullish flag target remains at 91 and, I guess, more dollar strength should be expected at least until the end of the year.


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Gold Technical analysis for December 18, 2014

Gold price has see a lot of volatility yesterday and despite briefly breaking below support at $1,185, bulls managed to push the precious metal back above $1,200 today. Price remains in a trading range. A trend is neutral.


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Red line = resistance


Blue line = support.


Gold price remains in a neutral trend. Support is at $1,185. Resistance is at $1,215-20. If either level is broken, then we could have a new short-term trend start towards $1,140 or $1,240. Price is also inside the Ichimoku cloud in the short-term chart, so this is another indicator that confirms that a trend is neutral.


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Blue lines = price channel


In the daily chart as shown above, Gold price is trying once again to break above the Ichimoku cloud. Additionaly, Gold price is trading inside an upward sloping channel. Bulls have the upper hand on a daily basis as long as Gold price is above $1,180. As long as Gold price is above $1,180, we could see price toreach the upper channel boundaries again towards $1,255-60.


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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for December 18, 2014


Technical outlook and chart setups:


The EUR/JPY pair is trading around the levels of 145.90-146.00 for now, and looks like it could continue drifting lower towards the outer trend line at 144.00 levels at least. Please note that Fibonacci 0.382 support of the rally between sub 134.00 and 149.80 is also around 144.00 levels. A bullish bounce there should be awaited before initiating long positions again. Immediate support is seen at 144.00 levels (trend line and Fibonacci 0.382), followed by 143.50, 142.00 and lower while resistance is seen at 148.00 levels, followed by 149.80 respectively. Only a break below the trend line support should delay matters.


Trading Recommendations:


Remain flat. Look to buy lower.


Good luck!


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Technical analysis of USD/CAD for December 18, 2014

General overview for 18/12/2014 09:50 CET


The level of 1.1670 acts as a strong intraday resistance level and despite the fact it was tested three times, the market still can not break through it. From the Elliott Wave point of view at least two scenarios can be placed at this period of time, both suggesting the corrective wave progression to the downside, but now the crucial question is the degree cycle of the correction. Nevertheless, the most important support is the intraday support at the level of 1.1559 and the dynamic support provided by the golden trend line. In case of any lower breakout, the weekly pivot point at the level of 1.1533 should provide a strong level to bounce from.


Support/Resistance:


1.1727 - WR2


1.1670 - Intraday Resistance


1.1666 - WR1


1.1559 - Intraday Support


1.1531 - Weekly Pivot


Trading recommendations:


Swingtraders should have now closed the buy positions as yesterday's spike down has hit the SL order at the level of 1.1590.


Daytraders might consider to open buy stop orders from the level of 1.1672 with tight SL (15-20 pips) and TP at the level of 1.1727.


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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for December 18, 2014

General overview for 18/12/2014 09:30 CET


The overall wave development is still consolidating inside of the golden channel, and average daily range is still rather narrow for this pair. The market is still testing the larger time frame support at the level of 145.70; and no decision on the future price movement has been made yet. Nevertheless, the bias is still to the upside, as the wave structure is corrective and there is still a good chance, that the impulsive waves to the upside will unfold soon.


Support/Resistance:


144.46 - WS2


144.96 - Intraday Support


145.70 - Technical Support


145.86 - WS1


147.01 - Intraday Resistance


147.82 - Weekly Pivot


148.24 - Intraday Resistance


Trading recommendations:


The trading levels stay as it was said as yesterday: the key intraday resistance is at the level of 147.02 and traders should consider opening buy stop orders from this level, with TP at the level of 148.22 and tight (15-20 pips) SL.


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Technical analysis of GBP/CHF for December 18, 2014


Technical outlook and chart setups:


The GBP/CHF pair has bounced off sharply from the 1.5000 lows made on December 16, 2014. The pair could be traded on the long side now, with every dips. It is recommended to remain long from earlier and also look to add further positions on dips, risk can be moved to break even levels. Immediate support is seen at 1.5000 levels (interim), followed by 1.4950 and lower while resistance is seen at 1.5350/60, followed by 1.5450/75 and 1.5550 levels respectively. Bulls are expected to remain under control till prices remain above 1.5000 levels now.


Trading recommendations:


Remain long, stop at break even, the target is open.


Good luck!


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Technical analysis of Silver for December 18, 2014


Technical outlook and chart setups:


Silver has remained steady after bouncing off the $15.50/60 levels as seen here. The metal is expected to continue rallying further towards $17.50 levels at least. It is recommended to continue holding long positions for now, risk remains below $14.50 levels. As discussed earlier, the metal may be forming a right shoulder of a potential inverted head and shoulder reversal. Immediate support is seen at $15.50 levels (interim), followed by $14.50 and lower while resistance is seen at $16.60 levels, followed by $17.20/30 and higher up respectively. Bulls should remain in control till prices remain above $14.50 for now.


Trading recommendations:


Remain long for now, stop at $14.50, the target is open.


Good luck!


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Technical analysis of Gold for December 18, 2014


Technical outlook and chart setups:


Gold dropped into the sub $1,280.00 levels yesterday before bouncing back again. The metal has produced a morning star bullish candlestick chart pattern as seen here on the 4H chart. It is recommended to initiate long positions at current market at $1,198.00/99.00 with risk just below $1,180.00 for now. The upside extensions remain at $1,255.00 at least. Immediate support is seen at $1,170.00 (fibonacci 0.618), followed by $1,140.00, $1,130.00 and lower while resistance is seen at $1,220.00, followed by $1,235.00, $1,255.00 and higher up respectively. Bulls could remain in control till prices stay above $1,140.00 levels.


Trading recommendations:


Initiate long positions now, stop below $1,180.00, the target is open.


Good luck!


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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for December 18 - 2014

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Technical Summary:


The break back below the resistance-line is confusing. It tells us, that the correction in blue wave ii has become more complex, than initially expected. The correction in blue wave ii has turned into an expanded flat correction. It also tells us, that blue wave iii will be a strong and extended wave as soon as it takes off in real. Apparently, we saw the bottom of wave c at 1.5910 and a break above 1.6058 will be the first strong indication that blue wave ii is over and blue wave iii higher is developing. A break above 1.6120 is needed to confirm that blue wave iii towards at least 1.6490 and likely even 1.6668 is developing.


Trading recommendation:


Our stop at 1.5980 was taken out for a nice little profit. We will buy here at 1.6006 with our stop placed at 1.5835.


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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for December 18 - 2014

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Technical Summary:


There is nothing new to add here. The expanded flat correction is still unfolding and we are still looking for a move lower in wave c towards 143.81 and maybe even lower to 142.05, where we find wave iv of a smaller degree. In the short run, we will be looking for resistance near 147.03 to protect the upside for a break below 145.34 confirming the next decline towards 143.81. Only a break above 148.23 will invalidate the bearish outlook.


Trading recommendation:


We are neutral and are waiting for an opportunity to buy EUR.


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Daily analysis of USDX for December 18, 2014

The USDX has made again a breakout at the level of 88.63 in an attempt to reach the resistance level of 90.40 in the medium term. To make the USDX reach that level, it would be necessary to begin to form a higher high pattern above the support level of 88.63. The MACD indicator is entering neutral territory.


Dailychart's resistance levels: 90.40 / 93.44


Dailychart's support levels: 88.63 / 87.35


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On the H1 chart, the USDX has managed to stay above the 200-day moving average, because this instrument is forming a bullish pattern above the support level of 88.99. On the upside road, the USDX would be facing the resistance levels of 89.25 and 89.51. On the other hand, a pullback at tghe current levels could lead to USDX to touch the support level of 88.71.


H1 chart's resistance levels: 89.25 / 89.51


H1 chart's support levels: 88.99 / 88.71


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Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place buy (long) orders only if the USD Index breaks with a bullish candlestick; the resistance level is at 89.25, take profit is at 89.51, and stop loss is at 89.00.


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Daily analysis of GBP/USD for December 18, 2014

On the daily chart, the GBP/USD pair made a strong breakout at the level of 1.5642, which opened the way for the pair to visit the support level of 1.5506. Now, the GBP/USD pair may begin to form a bearish pattern to try to continue the bearish bias in the medium term. However, this could be confirmed with a breakout level of 1.5506, which would lead the GBP/USD pair to touch the support level of 1.5407.


Dailychart's resistance levels: 1.5642 / 1.5746


Dailychart's support levels: 1.5506 / 1.5407


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The GBP/USD pair is forming a lower low pattern below the resistance level of 1.5590, because this pair was able to consolidate below the 200-day moving average during yesterday's session. However, the GBP/USD pair could conduct a breakout at the level of 1.5590 and climb to the level of 1.5632, due to a bearish retracement this pair is doing. The MACD indicator is in the oversold zone.


H1 chart's resistance levels: 1.5590 / 1.5632


H1 chart's support levels: 1.5534 / 1.5501


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Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place sell (short) orders only if the GBP/USD pair breaks a bearish candlestick; the support level is at 1.5534, take profit is at 1.5501, and stop loss is at 1.5565.


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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for December 18, 2014

Fundamental overview:
USD/JPY is expected to trade in a higher range. It is underpinned by the yen-funded carry trades amid positive investor risk appetite (VIX fear gauge eased 17.52% to 19.44, S&P 500 closed up 2.04% at 2,012.89 overnight) on a supportive Federal Reserve stance which modified its 'considerable time' language, saying it 'can be patient' about the timing of the first rate hike, and its forecast of a slower pace of Fed rate increases in 2015 once they start as well as on stabilization in Russia's currency from recent turmoil. USD/JPY is also supported by the demand from Japan's importers; Bank of Japan's large-scale monetary easing policy, positive dollar sentiment (ICE spot dollar index last 89.07 versus 87.94 early Wednesday) and higher U.S. Treasury yields (10-year at 2.135% versus 2.071% late Tuesday). Federal Reserve Chairwoman Yellen in a subsequent press conference said the central bank was unlikely to raise rates for the "next couple of meetings," and said she wanted to discourage the idea that the Fed would act only at meetings that are followed by news conferences, signaling the central bank could raise rates as early as its April 28-29 2015 meeting--the third meeting for 2015 which also doesn't include a news conference. That is sooner than the second half of 2015 that many investors currently expect. But USD/JPY gains are tempered by the softer-than-expected U.S. November CPI of -0.3% on-month (versus forecast -0.1%) and Japan's exporter sales.


Technical comment:
Daily chart is mixed as MACD is bearish, but stochastics is turned bullish near oversold levels.


Trading recommendations:

The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a higher range as far as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price is keeping above its pivot point, a long position is recommended with the first target at 119.10 and the second target at 119.60. In an alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 116.20. A break of this target would push the pair further downward and one may expect the second target at 115.50. The pivot point is at 117.


Resistance levels:

119.10

119.60

119.95



Support levels:
116.20

115.50

115


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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for December 18, 2014

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Fundamental overview:
USD/CHF is expected to trade in a higher range. It is underpinned by the positive dollar sentiment and ultra-loose Swiss National Bank's monetary policy. But CHF sentiment is boosted by the rise in Switzerland ZEW-Credit Suisse economic sentiment indicator to minus 4.9 in December from minus 7.6 in November. USD/CHF gains are also tempered by the franc demand on buoyant CHF/JPY cross.


Technical comment:
Daily chart is mixed as MACD is bearish, but stochastics is turned bullish near oversold levels.


Trading recommendations:

The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a higher range as far as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price is keeping above its pivot point, a long position is recommended with the first target at 0.9755 and the second target at 0.9785. In an alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 0.9605. A break of this target would push the pair further downward, and one may expect the second target at 0.9585. The pivot point is at 0.9645.


Resistance levels:

0.9755

0.9785

0.9815


Support levels:

0.9605

0.9585

0.955


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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for December 18, 2014

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Fundamental overview:
NZD/USD is expected to trade in a lower range. Mixed FX reaction this morning to NZ 3Q GDP data as on-quarter growth was stronger-than-expected at 1.0% (versus forecast +0.7%), but on-year growth was weaker-than-expected at +3.2% (versus forecast +3.3%). NZD/USD is undermined by the positive dollar sentiment. But NZD/USD losses are tempered by the Kiwi demand on buoyant NZD/JPY cross amid reduced risk aversion, firmer dairy prices and NZD-USD interest differential.


Technical Comment:
Daily chart is negative-biased as MACD and stochastics are turned bearish.


Trading recommendations:
The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as far as it remains below the pivot point. Short positions are recommended with the first target at 0.7660. A break of this target will move the pair further downward to 0.7625. The pivot point stands at 0.777. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, it will move above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. In that scenario, a long position is recommended with the first target at 0.7810 and the second target at 0.7835.


Resistance levels:

0.7810

0.7835

0.7870



Support levels:


0.7660

0.7625

0.7585


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Technical analysis of GBP/JPY for December 18, 2014

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Fundamental overview:
GBP/JPY is expected to trade in a higher range. It is supported by the positive risk sentiment and demand from Japan's importers. But GBP/JPY gains are tempered by Japan's export sales. The sterling sentiment is soothed by stronger-than-expected 1.6% rise in U.K. average earnings in the quarter ending in October (versus forecast +1.5% and higher than the U.K. October CPI of 1.3%) as well as bigger-than-expected 26,900 drop in U.K. November jobless claimants (versus forecast -20,000), although U.K. unemployment rate in the three months to October was higher-than-expected at 6.0% (versus forecast 5.9%).


Technical comment:
Daily chart is mixed as MACD is bearish, but stochastics is turning bullish at oversold levels, inside-day-range pattern was completed on Wednesday.


Trading recommendations:

The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a higher range as far as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price is keeping above its pivot point, a long position is recommended with the first target at 186.30 and the second target at 187.70. In an alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short posisitions are recommended with the first target at 182.05. A break of this target would push the pair further downwards and one may expect the second target at 181.15. The pivot point is at 183.


Resistance levels:

186.30

187.70

188.25


Support levels:

182.05

181.15

180


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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for December 18, 2014

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When the European market opens, some economic news will be released such as Spanish 10-y Bond Auction and German Ifo Business Climate. The US will release a bunch of economic data such as the Natural Gas Storage, CB Leading Index m/m, Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, Flash Services PMI, and Unemployment Claims. So, amid the reports, EUR/USD will move with low to medium volatility during this day.


TODAY TECHNICAL LEVELS:


Breakout BUY Level: 1.2393.


Strong Resistance:1.2366.


Original Resistance: 1.2374.


Inner Sell Area: 1.2362.


Target Inner Area: 1.2333.


Inner Buy Area: 1.2304.


Original Support: 1.2292.


Strong Support: 1.2280.


Breakout SELL Level: 1.2273.


Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.


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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for December 18, 2014

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No economic data is expected in Japan today. As for the US, it will release some economic data such as Natural Gas Storage, CB Leading Index m/m, Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, Flash Services PMI, and Unemployment Claims. So, there is a big probability the USD/JPY pair will move with low volatility during the Asian session, but with low to medium volatility during the US session.


TODAY TECHNICAL LEVELS:


Resistance. 3: 119.28.


Resistance. 2: 119.05.


Resistance. 1: 118.82.


Support. 1: 118.54.


Support. 2: 118.31.


Support. 3: 118.07.


Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.


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Daily analysis of major pairs for December 18, 2014

EUR/USD: The recent bearish breakout on the EUR/USD pair is a threat to the current bullish outlook in the market. It is not wise to place long trades at this moment, unless the price goes above the resistance line at 0.2450. However, the price is more likely to settle below the support line at 1.2300, which would result in a Bearish Confirmation Pattern.


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USD/CHF: The recent bullish breakout on USD/CHF is a threat to the current bearish outlook in the market. It is not wise to place short trades at this moment, unless the price goes below the support level at 0.9650. However, the price is more likely to settle above the resistance level at 0.9750, which would result in a Bullish Confirmation Pattern.


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GBP/USD: Like EUR/USD, this currency trading instrument also broke out downwards, testing the accumulation territory at 1.5500. The accumulation territory may eventually be breached to the downside. Moreover, some fundamental figures are expected today and they would have an impact on the markets.


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USD/JPY: This pair has been making consistent bullish effort as the price has gone upwards by over 300 pips, after testing the demand level at 115.50. The price is above the EMA 56 and the RSI period 14 is above the level 50. Things have turned bullish.


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EUR/JPY: This cross is also making bullish effort, but its success is less when compared to the USD/JPY pair. The market is currently volatile and choppy, and it would be OK to wait for a good opportunity to enter short.


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