EUR/USD: plan for the European session on June 17. The euro fell, but divergence on the MACD may leave a decline

To open long positions on EURUSD you need:

The euro fell on Friday after a good report on US retail sales, and today, buyers can only count on a divergence, which is gradually being formed on the MACD indicator. Yesterday's update of the low with the support test of 1.1193 will be the first signal to open long positions in EUR/USD with the main task of returning and consolidating above the resistance of 1.1235, which temporarily stops the current downward trend. With the breakthrough scenario of 1.1193 and the lack of demand for the euro, it is best to look at long positions after updating major support at 1.1163.

To open short positions on EURUSD you need:

Under the euro growth scenario in the first half of the day, the formation of a false breakdown in the resistance area of 1.1235 will be a signal to open short positions in the euro, but the main goal of the bears will be a low of 1.1293, consolidating below which will push EUR/USD to the support area of 1.1163 and 1.1138, where I recommend taking profit. The only problem for euro sellers is divergence, which is currently being formed on the MACD indicator and can limit the downward potential in the first half of the day. If the bulls manage to push the pair above 1.1235, it is possible to open short positions on a rebound from a high of 1.1266.

Indicator signals:

Moving averages

Trade is conducted below 30 and 50 moving averages, which indicates a further decline of EUR/USD.

Bollinger bands

If the euro declines, support will be provided by the lower limit of the indicator in the 1.1193 area, while growth will be limited to the upper limit in the 1.1240 area.

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Description of indicators

  • MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow
  • MA (moving average) 30 days - green
  • MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9
  • Bollinger Bands 20
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GOLD rejected off $1,350 strongly ahead of FOMC Meeting. June 17, 2019

Gold recently rejected off the $1,350 area with a strong bullish move inside the overall bearish bias while forming a Bearish Divergence. This week, the FOMC is holding a policy meeting. A policy update is due to be unveiled on Wednesday, so market participants will look for clues about upcoming rate cuts. In this context, certain weakness on the USD side may lead to further gains in gold prices.

The FOMC meeting this week is expected to be the biggest event for the gold market. No rate cuts are expected on Wednesday's meeting, but markets have steadily been increasing bets for cuts throughout 2019 amid concerns over the negative impact of the US - China trade tensions, signs of weak employment, and muted inflation of consumer prices. These signs are likely to assure the US Fed to revise its rhetoric in favor of a dovish bias. Moreover, gold benefits from lower interest rates that lower the opportunity cost of holding the non-yielding bullion.

From the technical viewpoint, the price has seen strong rejection off the $1,350 area while trading far from the dynamic level of 20 EMA. The price is expected to pull back towards $1,300-20 support area before proceeding higher with a target towards $1,400 and later towards $1,500. The Bearish divergence increased the probability of a deeper decline, though it will hardly sustain as a strong counter-move. Thus, gold is going to make a retracement along the way. The bullish bias is expected to continue further as the price remains above $1,300 area with a daily close.

SUPPORT: 1,290, 1,300, 1,320

RESISTANCE: 1,350, 1,380, 1,400

BIAS: BULLISH

MOMENTUM: VOLATILE

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EURUSD: EURO to regain momentum over USD. June 17, 2019

The US dollar has been recently the dominant currency in the pair while the euro has failed to sustain the bullish pressure it managed to gain earlier off the 1.1100 support area.

The European Union looks increasingly likely to impose disciplinary procedures on Italy over the management of its huge public debt, after recent inconclusive meetings. The EU is urging Italy to adopt new measures to improve its public finances. Italy breached those rules last year, data show, and is forecast to do so again this year and next. The Commission expects Rome's debt to rise even further above the EU's ceiling of 60% of economic output from about 132% at present.

In the UK, Brexit issue continues to hover over the economy. Some British politicians have suggested that in the event of a "no deal Brexit", Article 24 of the World Trade Organization's General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade can be invoked to keep Britain and the EU trading without tariffs. Moreover, with growth slowing and inflation staying well below the ECB's target, the bank recently raised the prospect of even more stimulus, arguing that a rate cut, or even more asset purchases may become necessary. With interest rates already at record lows and a 2.6 trillion Euro bond purchase scheme ended just last year, analysts argue that the ECB has very little actual firepower left as its remaining tools lack significant potency.

Today and throughout the week ECB President Draghi is going to speak about the upcoming changes in monetary policy and interest rates. Therefore, the euro is likely to be volatile ahead of the ECB's decision.

On the other hand, President Donald Trump urged the Fed to cut interest rates. The Fed is also expected to leave borrowing costs unchanged at a policy meeting this week but possibly lay the groundwork for a rate cut later this year. The US economic growth asserts strength because of the data that showed increases in domestic retail sales and factory output in May.

This week no important economic reports will be unveiled. The greenback may lose momentum if the euro fails to regain after ECB's president's speech.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price is currently pushing lower after certain pullback along the way since the start of the day whereas being below 1.1300-50 resistance area is expected to push lower to 1.1000-50 support area in the coming days. The price action context is still quite volatile with a bearish trend. The price is expected to lose steam as the overall bearish pressure persists.

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Elliott wave analysis of GBP/JPY for June 17, 2019

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GBP/JPY has made a new corrective low for the decline from 148.87. This calls for even more downside pressure towards 134.52 before wave 2 is expected to complete. Only an unexpected rally past minor resistance at 137.77 will indicate that wave 2 has completed already and that wave 3 has taken over for a new impulsive rally, that ultimately will break back above the 148.87 peak.

R3: 138.24

R2: 137.77

R1: 137.43

Pivot: 136.94

S1: 136.38

S2: 135.85

S3: 135.45

Trading recommendation:

Our stop at 136.90 was hit for a 60 pip loss. We will only buy GBP at 134.65 or upon a break above 137.77

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Technical analysis: Important intraday Level For EUR/USD, June 17,2019

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When the European market opens, no economic data will be released. However, the US will publish TIC Long-Term Purchases, NAHB Housing Market Index, and Empire State Manufacturing Index. So, amid the reports, the EUR/USD pair will move in a low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL: Breakout BUY Level: 1.1271.Strong Resistance:1.1265.Original Resistance: 1.1254.Inner Sell Area: 1.1243.Target Inner Area: 1.1218.Inner Buy Area: 1.1193.Original Support: 1.1182.Strong Support: 1.1171. Breakout SELL Level: 1.1165.(Disclaimer)

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for June 17 - 2019

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The correction in red wave ii from 123.18 continues to the 78.6% corrective target at 121.64 before turning up again. We are looking for a break above 121.96 as the first solid indication that red wave ii has completed and red wave iii towards 124.79 is developing.

In the short-term, we see support near 121.69 this support will ideal mark the low for a strong attack of minor resistance at 121.96.

R3: 122.49

R2: 122.18

R1: 121.96

Pivot: 121.69

S1: 121.64

S2: 121.22

S3: 121.07

Trading recommendation:

Our stop at 121.75 was hit for a 100 pips profit. We will buy EUR again at 121.75 or upon a break above 121.96 with our stop placed at 121.40

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Technical analysis: Important intraday level for USD/JPY, June 17,2019

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Today Japan will not release any economic data but the US will publish data om TIC Long-Term Purchases, NAHB Housing Market Index, and Empire State Manufacturing Index. So, there is a probability that the USD/JPY pair will move with low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:Resistance.3:109.23.Resistance. 2:109.02.Resistance. 1:108.81.Support. 1:108.54.Support. 2:108.33.Support. 3:108.12.(Disclaimer)

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Trading plan for Gold for June 17, 2019

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Technical outlook:

A 4H chart view has been presented for gold to have a medium-term outlook. The yellow metal seems to carve out a meaningful top at $1358 levels last Friday. Intraday chart patterns confirm a bearish reversal with prices set to form a series of lower lows and lower highs. Please note that the immediate trend line support has been broken with possibilities of yet another drop towards $1320 levels before a meaningful pullback could take place. In either case, short positions can be built with a stop above $1358 levels. Immediate price resistance is seen at $1358, while support is seen through $1320, $1300 and $1270 levels respectively. Bears should be now targeting the medium term trend line, passing around $1290 levels, and a break lower would expose the $1230 zone at least. Only a clear sustained break above $1358 levels could reverse the trend which looks like a remote possibility for now.

Trading plan:

Initiate short positions now around $1340/45, stop above $1358, target is open.

Good luck!

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Trading plan for EURUSD for June 17, 2019

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Technical outlook:

After all the buzz that EURUSD was set to begin a new trend higher, the dust is now settled with keeping technical discussions intact. The pair reversed lower from a dropping trend line last week. Traders can now bring their stop losses lower to 1.1340 or at breakeven (1.1320/25). We have presented the 4-hour chart view here to focus on the recent wave counts. Fibonacci resistance levels are displayed here which could come into play during intraday rallies, so please keep a note on them. Strong resistance is seen at 1.1290 levels, which is the Fibonacci 0.618 resistance and the past support turned resistance as well. Any intraday rallies should remain well capped below the 1.1300 mark going forward. Looking at the broader wave picture, a potential ending diagonal could be into its last wave 5, that begun from 1.1348 levels last week. In this case, a zigzag structure should be on its way lower towards 1.0800 levels, before a meaningful retracement could begin. We maintain the selling on rallies stance for now.

Trading plan:

Remain short from 1.1320 levels, stop to 1.1340, target is open.

Good luck!

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Technical analysis of BTC/USD for 17/06/2019:

Crypto Industry News:

According to the report of a company dealing with the analysis of cryptographic data, the resources of bitcoin supply have changed significantly since reaching the last bottom. The most significant pattern that emerged is institutional investors who accumulate huge amounts of digital assets at discounted prices.

The number and richness of addresses of retail investors have steadily increased in all four categories, with the highest growth in the 0.1-1 BTC category. The report confirms that more than 26% of the supply on the market ($ 36 billion in bitcoins) is currently in addresses with a balance of 1-10 K BTC.

The institutional wallet addresses, which had less than 20% of the supply in circulation, increased by 7% in less than a year. From the time of the bitcoin bottom to $ 3,200 in December 2018, a new 1.2 million BTC appeared in this range. The analysis did not include the one-off 856,000 Bitcoin movement by Coinbase in December 2018. Even with this exclusion over 450,000. Growth in this range is by far the biggest jump in all of these categories. And finally, bitcoin exchanges in the last two categories have seen a sharp decline. The trend is clear - the mood of retail investors is constantly growing. The share of institutional investors also grows, while in the field of stock exchanges there is a huge drop.

Technical Overview:

The BTC/USD pair is unfolding the wave 5 to the upside as anticipated and the new swing high was made at the level of $9.365 over the weekend. The sub-waves 1 and 2 were completed and now sub-wave 3 is in progress. The target for wave 3 is seen at the level of $9,826 and can be made very soon if the upward momentum continues at the current pace.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - $11,709

WR2 - $10,500

WR1 - $9,878

Weekly Pivot - $8,649

WS1 - $7,945

WS2 - $6,737

WS3 - $6,016

Trading Recommendations:

The best strategy in the current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is still up. All the shorter timeframe moves are being treated as a correction inside of the uptrend. The current uptrend wave is wave 3, which is an impulsive wave, so this is the best wave to trade. The target for wave 3 is seen at the level of $9,826.

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Technical analysis of ETH/USD for 17/06/2019:

Crypto Industry News:

Ethereum 2.0 developers give themselves 3 months to collect deposits and 7 months from today, so that at least two clients reach production status.

Asked to explain what he meant by the production status, Justin Drake from Ethereum 2.0 team explained that this means getting a testnet client who will undergo a security audit, formal verification and will not experience any major problems during testing.

Vitalik Buterin explained that this will be done in the same way as running Ethereum 1.0. First a working testnet, security audit and no errors. Testnet can appear in a few weeks. The people involved in the project say that activities are currently being conducted towards a security audit.

The above information suggests that Ethereum 2.0 is approaching the final stages of commissioning. The process itself is due to start at Devcon in Osaka on October 8-10.

The implementation of Ethereum 2.0 will initially include only Proof of Stake (PoS) tests. They will not allow anything other than depositing and then validating to make sure that the rules set will be followed. Initially, it will be a one-way deposit only. Two-way tests are being talked about, but this may only apply to the second phase.

Technical Overview:

The ETH/USD pair is moving inside of the ascending channel that originated from the level of $226.17. The local top was made at the level of $278.14 so far as this level is the technical resistance for the price. The other nearest resistance is seen at the level of $279.65. As long as the price is moving inside of the channel, the move up might continue, but this is still the wave (b) in progress. There is still wave (c) of the overall corrective cycle wave 4 missing.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - $345.37

WR2 - $311.54

WR1 - $291.71

Weekly Pivot - $256.95

WS1 - $239.45

WS2 - $203.99

WS3 - $185.39

Trading Recommendations:

The best strategy in the current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is still up. All the shorter timeframe moves are being treated as a correction inside of the uptrend. The current uptrend wave is the wave 4, which is a corrective wave and after is completed, the uptrend should resume.

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Forecast for EUR/USD for June 17, 2019

EUR/USD

On Friday, the euro fell by 64 points, breaking the support of the price channel line (1.1245). The decline stopped at the balance line of the daily scale (red indicator line) and at the moment of reaching the signal line of the Marlin oscillator the border with the territory of negative numbers - the territory of the market trend decline.

Today in the Asian session, there is a slight correction in the euro. Perhaps, the resistance of the price channel at 1.1245 might work out, after which, according to the main scenario, we are waiting for the price to consolidate below the MACD daily scale (1.1200), consolidation below the level offers the prospect of pulling down the price to the Fibonacci level of 123.6% on the price of 1.1075. Price output above 1.1245 may deepen the corrective growth to the MACD line of the four-hour scale, to 1.1282.

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Technical analysis of GBP/USD for 17/06/2019:

Technical Overview:

The GBP/USD pair has broken below the technical support zone located between the levels of 1.2652 - 1.2668 and dropped like a stone towards the next key technical support zone located between the levels of 1.2580 - 1.2559. The momentum is weak and negative, so it supports the move down, but the market conditions are starting to become oversold, so some kind of the local-pull back is expected before the move down will continue.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.2846

WR2 - 1.2797

WR1 - 1.2673

Weekly Pivot - 1.2620

WS1 - 1.2493

WS2 - 1.2439

WS3 - 1.2301

Trading Recommendations:

The best strategy in the current market conditions is to trade in the direction of the main trend, which is still down. All the local bounces and corrections should be treated as another opportunity to open the sell orders for a better price. Please notice, the larger time frame trend is down and there are no signs of any trend reversal.

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Forecast for AUD / USD pair on June 17, 2019

AUD / USD pair

The Australian dollar has overcome the support of the nearest embedded line of the price channel, which is now heading towards the downstream line in the area of 0.6783. There will be no important economic data for Australia this week. The "Australian" will be more focused on foreign markets.Worries about tough Brexit intensify in the UK. Meanwhile in the US, the Fed can destroy the overstated market expectations for three rate cuts, saying with confidence only one thing. The Australian stock index S&P/ASX200 today is down by -0.16%, as well as China A50 is losing -0.09% today, which has been falling for the 4th day in a row. The iron ore has lost 1.84% on Friday. We are waiting for the AUD/USD pair near 0.6783.

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for 17/06/2019:

Technical Overview:

The EUR/USD pair is testing the key technical support at the level of 1.1206 after the Doji candlestick pattern was made around the level of 1.1347 a few days ago. This is very important support and if broken, then the bears might accelerate the sell-off towards the level of 1.1118, another important support. There is virtually nothing between those two levels, so the price can drop like a stone. Please keep an eye on the market behavior at the key support and trade accordingly.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.1413

WR2 - 1.1376

WR1 - 1.1277

Weekly Pivot - 1.1237

WS1 - 1.1132

WS2 - 1.1096

WS3 - 1.0995

Trading Recommendations:

The best strategy in the current market conditions is to trade in the direction of the main trend, which is now up. All the local pull-backs and corrections should be treated as another opportunity to open the buy orders for a better price. There is a downtrend reversal sign on the weekly time-frame chart, which is why the recent move up might be the beginning of the new uptrend, but it needs confirmation and so far there is no clear confirmation yet.analytics5d071cbf89965.jpg

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Control zones for NZD/USD pair on 06/17/19

Last week's downward movement continued the medium-term impulse. This allows you to keep short positions opened earlier. For those who could not or did not have time to enter the sales, this can be done after returning to the range of the average move of the last week. The probability of return is 90%.

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Buying is also possible but you need to understand that this is a correction to a mid-term bearish impulse.

An alternative model of continuing to fall without returning to the average course of last week has a low probability, thus, working in sales from current levels is not profitable. The implementation of this model will occur only in 10% of cases, which will not give a favorable attitude towards us in the distance.

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Daily CZ - daily control zone. The area formed by important data from the futures market, which changes several times a year.

Weekly CZ - weekly control zone. The area formed by marks from the important futures market, which changes several times a year.

Monthly CZ - monthly control zone. The area is a reflection of the average volatility over the past year.

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Forecast for GBP/USD for June 17, 2019

GBP/USD

Last Friday, the pound sterling closed the day below the first target at 1.2610 - a low of August 15, 2018. According to all signs of the indicators, the situation is definitely decreasing. On the daily, the Marlin oscillator signal line is in the decline zone, the price is below all indicator lines on H4, and Marlin is also in the decline zone, indicating only the probability of a correction at the current moment. The completion of the correction is expected in the area of 1.2610. Buyers have nothing to rely on; Boris Johnson is in the lead for the Conservative Party leader elections, slowdowns are expected on England's Wednesday for inflation, the Bank of England announces a monetary policy decision on Thursday, which will obviously be expectantly alarming. But even earlier, on Wednesday, the Fed could destroy the overvalued market expectations for three rate cuts, reporting only one.

We look forward to the pound's decline towards a price of 1.2530, a low on December 14, 2018. Consolidating below the level opens the way to support the price channel line of the daily chart at a price of 1.2350.

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Control zones USDCAD 06/17/19

The closure of last week's trade took place outside the middle range of the movement, which indicates a 90% probability of a return within its limits. This makes it possible to search for a favorable price for selling the instrument. The "false breakout" pattern of Friday's high will be an excellent opportunity to open a short position.

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An upward movement appears like a medium-term impulse, so sales should have a consolidation point. No need to rely on a large profit in the direction of strengthening the Canadian dollar.

An alternative model will be developed if the test of the weekly control zone 1.3433-1.3415 leads to a strong increase in supply. The absorption of Friday's growth will be the first signal for the resumption of a downward impulse, which will provide an opportunity to look for prices to open a medium-term short position. While the probability of the implementation of this model is 30%, so it is auxiliary.

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Daily CZ - daily control zone. The area formed by important data from the futures market, which change several times a year.

Weekly CZ - weekly control zone. The zone formed by important marks of the futures market, which change several times a year.

Monthly CZ - monthly control zone. The zone, which is a reflection of the average volatility over the past year.

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Control zones GBPUSD 06/17/19

The pair's downward movement continues to be a medium-term impulse, which makes it possible to keep part of the sales opened last week. Half of the position or more should be closed, since the pair has reached the lower boundary of the accumulation zone, which increases the likelihood of large demand.

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After a breakdown of the May low, it is necessary to monitor the formation of the absorption pattern. If it is formed, then you will need to purchase the instrument inside the flat range.

An alternative model of decline will be relevant if the closure of the US session occurs below the May low. This will indicate the strength of the downward movement and the absence of accumulating large limit purchase orders. The main strategy for today is to hold a short position that was opened last week.

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Daily CZ - daily control zone. The area formed by important data from the futures market, which change several times a year.

Weekly CZ - weekly control zone. The zone formed by important marks of the futures market, which change several times a year.

Monthly CZ - monthly control zone. The zone, which is a reflection of the average volatility over the past year.

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Fractal analysis of major currency pairs on June 17

Forecast for June 17:

Analytical review of H1-scale currency pairs:

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For the euro / dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.1268, 1.1246, 1.1231, 1.1194, 1.1181, 1.1153 and 1.1131. Here, we are following the development of the downward cycle of June 12. Short-term downward movement is expected in the range of 1.1194 - 1.1181. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to a pronounced movement. Here, the goal is 1.1153. We consider the level of 1.1131 to be a potential value for the bottom. After reaching which, we expect consolidation, as well as a rollback to the top.

Short-term upward movement is possible in the range of 1.1231 - 1.1246. The breakdown of the last value will lead to a deep correction. Here, the goal is 1.1268. Up to this level, we expect the initial conditions for the upward cycle.

The main trend is the downward cycle of June 12.

Trading recommendations:

Buy 1.1231 Take profit: 1.1244

Buy 1.1247 Take profit: 1.1266

Sell: 1.1180 Take profit: 1.1155

Sell: 1.1150 Take profit: 1.1132

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For the pound / dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.2652, 1.2626, 1.2605, 1.2568, 1.2538, 1.2497 and 1.2471. Here, we follow the formation of the potential for the bottom of June 7. Short-term downward movement is expected in the range of 1.2568 - 1.2538. The breakdown of the latter value should be accompanied by a pronounced downward movement. Here, the target is 1.2497. For the potential value for the bottom, we consider the level of 1.2471. After reaching which, we expect consolidation, as well as a rollback to the correction.

Short-term upward movement is possible in the range of 1.2605 - 1.2626. The breakdown of the last value will lead to a prolonged correction. Here, the target is 1.2652. This level is a key support for the downward structure.

The main trend is the downward cycle of June 7.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.2605 Take profit: 1.2625

Buy: 1.2627 Take profit: 1.2651

Sell: 1.2566 Take profit: 1.2540

Sell: 1.2536 Take profit: 1.2498

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For the dollar / franc pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.0059, 1.0044, 1.0015, 0.9995, 0.9970, 0.9954 and 0.9934. Here, we are following the development of the ascending structure of June 7. Short-term upward movement is possible in the range of 0.9995 - 1.0015. The breakdown of the latter value should be accompanied by a pronounced upward movement. Here, the target is 1.0044. We consider the level of 1.0059 to be a potential value for the top. After reaching which, we expect consolidation as well as a rollback to the bottom.

Short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 0.9970 - 0.9954. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to the development of a prolonged correction. Here, the target is 0.9934. This level is a key support for the top.

The main trend is the upward cycle of June 7.

Trading recommendations:

Buy : 0.9995 Take profit: 1.0015

Buy : 1.0017 Take profit: 1.0044

Sell: 0.9970 Take profit: 0.9955

Sell: 0.9952 Take profit: 0.9936

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For the dollar / yen pair, the key levels on the scale are : 109.58, 109.37, 109.01, 108.70, 108.08, 107.76 and 107.35. Here, the situation is in equilibrium. Short-term upward movement is possible in the range of 108.70 - 109.01. The breakdown of the latter value should be accompanied by a pronounced upward movement. Here, the target is 109.37. Meanwhile, there is a price consolidation in the range of 109.37 - 109.58.

The level of 108.08 is a key support for the ascending structure. Its price passage will lead to the development of a downward trend. Here, the first target is 107.76. For the potential value for the bottom, we consider the level of 107.35.

The main trend: the equilibrium state.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 108.70 Take profit: 109.00

Buy : 109.03 Take profit: 109.37

Sell: 108.08 Take profit: 107.76

Sell: 107.74 Take profit: 107.37

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For the Canadian dollar / US dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.3564, 1.3515, 1.3492, 1.3451, 1.3424, 1.3385, 1.3364 and 1.3334. Here, we are following the development of the ascending structure of June 7. Short-term upward movement is expected in the range of 1.3424 - 1.3451. The breakdown of the last value should be accompanied by a pronounced upward movement. Here, the target is 1.3492. Meanwhile, in the range of 1.3492 - 1.3515, there is a short-term upward movement, as well as consolidation. We consider the level of 1.3564 as a potential value for the top, to which we expect movement, after the breakdown of the level of 1.3517.

Short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 1.3385 - 1.3364. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to a prolonged correction. Here, the target is 1.3334.

The main trend is the upward cycle of June 7.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.3424 Take profit: 1.3450

Buy : 1.3453 Take profit: 1.3490

Sell: 1.3385 Take profit: 1.3365

Sell: 1.3363 Take profit: 1.3335

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For the Australian dollar / US dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are : 0.6919, 0.6896, 0.6883, 0.6859, 0.6830 and 0.6808. Here, we are following the development of the downward cycle of June 7th. The continuation of the movement to the bottom is expected after the breakdown of the level of 0.6859. In this case, the goal is 0.6830, wherein consolidation is near this level. For the potential value for the bottom, we consider the level of 0.6808. After reaching which, we expect a rollback to the top.

Short-term upward movement is possible in the range of 0.6883 - 0.6896. The breakdown of the last value will lead to a prolonged correction. Here, the goal is 0.6919. This level is a key support for the downward structure.

The main trend is the downward cycle of June 7.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 0.6883 Take profit: 0.6895

Buy: 0.6897 Take profit: 0.6919

Sell : 0.6857 Take profit : 0.6833

Sell: 0.6828 Take profit: 0.6810

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For the euro / yen pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 122.39, 122.09, 121.91, 121.39, 121.14, 120.75 and 120.54. Here, we are following the development of the downward cycle of June 11th. The continuation of the movement to the bottom is expected after the breakdown of the level of 121.39. In this case, the target is 121.14, wherein consolidation is near this level. The breakdown of the level of 121.14 must be accompanied by a pronounced downward movement. Here, the goal is 120.75. For the potential value for the bottom, we consider the level of 120.54. After reaching which, we expect a consolidation, as well as a departure to the correction.

Short-term upward movement is expected in the range of 121.91 - 122.09. The breakdown of the last value will lead to a prolonged correction. Here, the goal is 122.39. This level is a key support for the downward structure.

The main trend is the development of the downward structure of June 11.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 121.91 Take profit: 122.09

Buy: 122.11 Take profit: 122.37

Sell: 121.39 Take profit: 121.18

Sell: 121.12 Take profit: 120.77

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For the pound / yen pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are : 137.38, 137.05, 136.83, 136.36, 136.18, 135.88 and 135.47. Here, we are following the development of the downward structure of June 12. The continuation of the movement to the bottom is expected after the price passes the noise range 136.36 - 136.18. In this case, the target is 135.88, wherein price consolidation is near this level. For the potential value for the bottom, we consider the level of 135.47. After reaching which, we expect a rollback to the top.

Short-term upward movement is possible in the range of 136.83 - 137.05. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to in-depth correction. Here, the target is 137.38. This level is a key support for the downward structure.

The main trend - the downward structure of June 12.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 136.83 Take profit: 137.03

Buy: 137.07 Take profit: 137.35

Sell: 136.18 Take profit: 135.90

Sell: 135.85 Take profit: 135.50

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP/USD near support, a bounce is possible!

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GBPUSD is near support, a bounce to 1st resistance is possible

Entry: 1.2564

Why it's good : 161.8% Fibonacci extension, 100% Fibonacci extension, horizontal swing low support

Stop Loss : 1.2373

Why it's good :61.8% Fibonacci extension

Take Profit : 1.2651

Why it's good: 61.8% Fibonacci extension, horizontal pullback resistance, 38.2% Fibonacci retracement

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The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

USD/CAD approaching resistance, potential reversal!

Price is approaching its resistance where we expect to see a reversal.

Entry : 1.3437

Why it's good : 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, 100% Fibonacci extension, horizontal pullback resistance

Stop Loss : 1.3499

Why it's good : 78.6% Fibonacci retracement

Take Profit : 1.3364

Why it's good : Horizontal pullback support, 38.2% Fibonacci retracement

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The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

USD/JPY to test resistance, a bounce is possible!

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USDJPY to test key resistance, a drop to 1st support is possible

Entry:109.012

Why it's good : 61.8% Fibonacci extension, 23.6% Fibonacci retracement, horizontal pullback resistance

Stop Loss : 109.909

Why it's good :76.4% Fibonacci retracement,horizontal swing high resistance

Take Profit : 107.854

Why it's good: horizontal swing low support

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The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR/USD. Dollar rally: will there be a continuation of the feast?

Last week, in just a few days, the euro-dollar pair lost almost 150 points, falling from the middle of the 13th figure to the mark of 1.1209. Judging by the pace of Friday's decline, the eur/usd bears clearly intended to enter the 11th figure, but they simply did not have enough time, due to the completion of the five-day trading period. However, despite the rapid growth of the US currency, the further rally of the greenback is questionable, due to its vulnerability. In my opinion, the revaluation of the dollar was a bit premature, so traders should be wary of this price movement.

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By and large, the Friday impulse was due to the release of two macroeconomic reports: the state of industrial production in the United States and the dynamics of retail sales. First of all, we were surprised at the growth rate of industrial production: the figure unexpectedly rose by 0.4% on a monthly basis, after a strong decline in the previous reporting period. The index exceeded the forecast values (+0.2%) and reached a seven-month high, after the strongest decline since February 2017. Related components (in particular, the capacity utilization rate and production indicator in the manufacturing sector) also showed a positive trend. A more modest growth was recorded for retail sales. In general, the release came out at the level of predicted values, whereas the figure with regard to car sales was even weaker than expectations (0.5% instead of the predicted 0.7%). But in general, retail sales in the United States shown a positive trend, thus confirming the growth in consumer activity of Americans.

These releases, plus the so-called "Friday factor" (many traders took profits on the eve of the weekend) played a key role in the recovery of the US currency: the dollar index updated this month's high, rising to 97.54. The market suddenly doubted that the Fed would take a dovish position at the June meeting (the results of which will be announced as early as June 19), although the probability of a rate cut by the end of the summer is already almost 70%. Such discord allowed the dollar to strengthen against a basket of major currencies, defining new price horizons.

Still, some experts ask themselves: are the above releases capable of drastically changing the current situation in the context of the prospects for the Fed's monetary policy? In particular, TD Securities analysts warn that members of the US regulator are still announcing a rate cut — albeit with an "open" date, without the designation of the July meeting. According to experts, the Fed is likely to set the stage for a rate cut in the foreseeable future by next week. The decline in the labor market and the slowdown in inflation against the background of the escalation of the US-China trade war are the main fundamental factors that will determine the tone of the rhetoric of members of the Federal Reserve. In this context, growth in industrial production and a very modest growth in retail sales will play a secondary role.

On the other hand, we should not forget that the June Fed meeting will be held before the G-20 summit (June 28-29). Trump's contradictory signals put many currency strategists at a standstill: at first he threatened to impose billions in taxes on China if Beijing didn't make a deal with Washington, but then "replaced anger with mercy," saying the agreement was inevitable. "Sooner or later they will do it anyway," Trump said in an interview with an American television channel. How the White House will behave directly in front of the G20 is an open question. But almost all economists and political analysts agree that the G-20 summit will be a turning point regarding the future relationship between the United States and China. Given this factor, it is unlikely that the Fed will be too frank about its plans for the future. In my opinion, the median (point) forecast for the current year will remain the same (i.e., wait and see until the end of 2019), and the average forecast for the next year will be lowered.

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Thus, the dollar's vulnerability still persists. The Fed can ignore the successful releases of the past week and focus on more important aspects - both macroeconomic and political. The regulator is unlikely to announce a rate cut at the July meeting, but it may well "open the door" for such a decision with the help of extremely mild rhetoric. In this case, the optimism of dollar bulls will be offset. And including paired with the euro, since the ECB, despite numerous rumors, still maintains a wait-and-see position and (so far) does not follow the path of easing monetary policy. All this suggests that the support level of 1.1210 can resist - if dollar bulls doubt their strength on the eve of the June meeting. The next level of support for eur/usd is in the area of annual lows (1.1105), so it is important for the bulls of the pair to hold current positions. But overall, short positions for the pair still look risky, given the unreliability of fundamental factors.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com