Bitcoin analysis for December 29, 2017

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Bitcoin (BTC) has been trading sideways at the price of $14.344. The bill for the regulation of cryptocurrencies and initial coin offerings (ICOs) in Russia is ready. It was jointly developed by the country's central bank and finance ministry. The regulators have shared some details of the bill including how mining activities are to be taxed. The technical picture is neutral to bearish.

Trading recommendations:

According to the 1H time - frame, I found a bearish flag in progress, which is a sign that buying looks risky. My advice is to watch for potential selling opportunities if you see a valid breakout level of the lower diagonal. The downward targets will be set at the price of $12.112 and at the price of $10.645.

Support/Resistance

$14.934 – Intraday resistance (price action)

$13.160– Intraday support $12.112

$12.112 – Objective target

$10.645 – Objective target

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GBP/USD analysis for December 29, 2017

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Recently, the GBP/USD pair has been trading upwards. The price tested the level of 1.3528. According to the 4H time – frame, I found that the symmetrical tiangle is broken and that selling looks risky. My advice is to watch for potential buying opportunities. The upward targets are set at the price of 1.3550 and at the price of 1.3690 (pattern projection).

Resistance levels:

R1: 1.3470

R2: 1.3500

R3: 1.3540

Support levels:

S1: 1.3400

S2: 1.3360

S3: 1.3330

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential buying opportunities.

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USD/JPY analysis for December 29, 2017

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Recently, the USD/JPY pair has been trading downwards. The price tested the level of 112.48. According to the 4H time – frame, I found a breakout of upward trendline, which is a sign that buyers lost power and sellers took control. My advice is to watch for potential selling opportunities. The downward targets are set at the price of 112.05 and at the price of 111.88.

Resistance levels:

R1: 113.25

R2: 113.62

R3: 113.95

Support levels:

S1: 112.57

S2: 112.27

S3: 111.88

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential selling opportunities.

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Trading plan 12/29/2017

Trade plan 12/29/2017

Overall picture: Trend against the dollar.

In the last days of the outgoing year, there is a general trend against the dollar wherein the euro broke the level of 1.1900. It seems that the pound is ready to go up to 1.3470 while, both the Swiss franc and the Japanese yen have turned against the dollar.

These are good points to enter against the dollar, but the statistics of past New Year holidays taught us that in the first week of the new year, it is better to stay out of the market or to reduce risks at least.

GBP / USD pair

Buy the pair at the level of 1.3470, with the target of 1.3650.

We congratulate all of you on the New Year! Wishing you happiness, health and good luck!

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Global macro overview for 29/12/2017

The last trading session this year brings a continuation of the US Dollar weakness observed in recent days. The good data from the US economy in form of Chicago PMI index published yesterday, which reached its 7-year peaks, did not stop the US Dollar bears The market is pessimistic towards the US currency, as it has not yet seen any chances for positive changes in expectations related to the FED monetary policy. Additionally, from a historical perspective, the first quarter was more often weaker for the US Dollar, which was explained by the weakness of macroeconomic data due to weather conditions (severe winter).

Trading in the period between Christmas is, however, characterized by the continuation of the observed dominant trends, so the US Dollar should continue to weaken across the board. The seasonals factors might play an important role in January and trigger highly anticipated January effect.

Let's now take a look at the US Dollar Index technical picture at the H4 time frame. The price has broken below the important technical support at the level of 92.49 and currently is heading towards the next important support at 91.50.The market conditions are now oversold, but there is still no bullish divergence between the price and momentum present yet. The zone between the levels of 92.49 - 92.67 will now act as a resistance to the price as long as the lower lows will be made.

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for December 29, 2017

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All our downside target which we predicted in yesterday's analysis have been hit. Despite of recent rebound from 112.65 (the low of December 28), the pair is still capped by a declining 50-period moving average. The relative strength index is below its neutrality level at 50. Even though a continuation of the technical rebound cannot be ruled out, its extent should be limited. To conclude, below 113.00, look for a further decline with targets at 112.20 and 112.00 in extension.

Alternatively, if the price moves in the opposite direction, a long position is recommended above 113.00 with a target of 113.15.

Chart Explanation: The black line shows the pivot point. The current price above the pivot point indicates a bullish position, while the price below the pivot point is a signal for a short position. The red lines show the support levels and the green line indicates the resistance level. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Strategy: SELL, Stop Loss: 113.00, Take Profit: 112.20

Resistance levels: 113.15, 113.35 and 113.85 Support Levels: 112.20, 112.00, 111.70

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Global macro overview for 29/12/2017

Dow Jones Industrial at the close increased 0.26% up to 24837,51 points, S&P500 increased by 0.18% up to 2687,54 points and Nasdaq went up by 0.16% up to 650,50.16 points. Technological companies, telecoms and development companies contributed the most to DJI increases as the global investors hope that at the end of the year the stock exchanges may rise to record levels. From large technology companies, Apple and Facebook shares grew , biotech companies such as Gilead and Amgen were declining. Information technology sector is the best-performing sector on the New York Stock Exchange in 2017, it gained 38% from January.

The US economic data were positive as well. The manufacturing sector activity index in the Chicago region strongly increased in December, up to 67.6 points (in November, the index was 63.9 points). Analysts expected in the 12th drop of the index to 62.0 points. Up 0.7% (on monthly basis), the stocks of American wholesalers also went in November - the Trade Department said in the preliminary reading. Meanwhile, analysts expected a 0.3% increase in the inventory ratio. The number of unemployed people continuing to receive benefits amounted to 1.943 million a week, which ended on December 16th. Here, the analysts expected 1,900 million people. On the commodity market, crude oil price increases slightly slowed down, however, the cost of raw material is still high, given the prices for the last 2.5 years.

In conclusion, the sentiment among the US investors is still high and remains on elevated levels. This is why the market participants might expect another gain in 2018, which possibly start with so-called January effect.

Let's now take a look at the SPX (SP500 ETF) technical picture at the H1 time frame. The sequence of higher highs and higher lows continues. The market is trading above all of the moving averages, but the momentum remains neutral. The nearest technical support is seen at the level of 266.60 and the nearest technical resistance is seen at the level of 268.61.

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for December 29, 2017

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All our targets which we predicted in yesterday's analysis have been hit. The pair is heading downward now, and is expected to test its next support at 0.9770. The risk of a slide below this threshold remains high, as both the 20-period and 50-period moving averages are heading downward, and call for further decline. The relative strength index is below its neutrality area at 50. In these perspectives, as long as 0.9810 is not surpassed, likely decline to 0.9730 and 0.9750 in extension.

Chart Explanation: The black line shows the pivot point. The present price above the pivot point indicates a bullish position, and the price below the pivot points indicates a short position. The red lines show the support levels and the green line indicates the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Strategy: SELL, Stop Loss: 0.9810, Take Profit: 0.9730

Resistance levels: 0.9840, 0.9860, and 0.9900

Support levels: 0.9730, 0.9700, and 0.9650

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Technical analysis of GBP/JPY for December 29, 2017

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All out targets which we predicted in yesterday's analysis have been hit. The pair resumed its upward momentum, and is now challenging its resistance at 0.8895. A bullish breakout of this threshold seems more likely to occur, as the 50-period moving average is turning up, and plays well a support. Last but not least, the relative strength index calls for a new rise.

To sum up, above 151.45, look for further advance to 152.35 and 152.60 in extension.

Alternatively, if the price moves in the direction opposite to the forecast, a short position is recommended below 151.45 with the target at 151.20

Strategy: BUY, Stop Loss: 151.45, Take Profit: 152.35

Chart Explanation: the black line shows the pivot point. The price above the pivot point indicates long positions; and when it is below the pivot points, it indicates short positions. The red lines show the support levels and the green line indicates the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Resistance levels: 152.35, 152.60, and 153.00

Support levels: 151.20, 151.00, and 150.55

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for December 29, 2017

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Monthly Outlook

In January 2015, the EUR/USD pair moved below the major demand levels near 1.2050-1.2100 (multiple previous bottoms set in July 2012 and June 2010). Hence, a long-term bearish target was projected toward 0.9450.

In March 2015, EUR/USD bears challenged the monthly demand level around 1.0500, which had been previously reached in August 1997.

In the longer term, the level of 0.9450 remains a projected target if any monthly candlestick achieves bearish closure below the depicted monthly demand level of 1.0500.

However, the EUR/USD pair has been trapped within the depicted consolidation range (1.0500-1.1450) until the current bullish breakout was executed above 1.1450.

The current bullish breakout above 1.1450 allowed a quick bullish advance towards 1.2100 where recent evidence of bearish rejection was expressed (Note the previous Monthly candlestick of September).

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Daily Outlook

In January 2017, the previous downtrend was reversed when the Inverted Head and Shoulders pattern was established around 1.0500. Since then, evident bullish momentum has been expressed on the chart.

As anticipated, the ongoing bullish momentum allowed the EUR/USD pair to pursue further bullish advance towards 1.1415-1.1520 (Previous Daily Supply-Zone).

The daily supply zone failed to pause the ongoing bullish momentum. Instead, evident bullish breakout was expressed towards the price level of 1.2100 where the depicted Head and Shoulders reversal pattern was expressed.

If the recent bearish breakout persists below 1.1700 (Neckline of the reversal pattern), a quick bearish decline should be expected towards the price zone of 1.1415-1.1520 (Initial targets for the depicted H&S pattern).

Bearish target for the depicted Head and Shoulders pattern extends towards 1.1350. However, to pursue towards the mentioned target level, significant bearish pressure is needed to be applied against the mentioned zone (1.1415-1.1520).

However, In November, recent price action around the price zone of 1.1520-1.1415 indicated evident bullish recovery.

This hindered further bearish decline which allowed the current bullish pullback to occur towards the price level of 1.2000 where price action should be watched for a possible SELL entry.

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for December 29, 2017

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All our upside targets which we predicted in yesterday's analysis have been hit. NZD/USD is still expected to trade with a bullish outlook.

The pair remains on the upside, and is also supported by its rising 50-period moving average. The relative strength index is bullish above its ascending trend line support. In addition, a strong support base at 0.7070 should limit any downward attempts.

To sum up, as long as 0.7070 is not broken, likely advance to 0.7135 and 0.7150 in extension.

The black line shows the pivot point. Currently, the price is above the pivot point, which is a signal for long positions. If it remains below the pivot point, it will indicate short positions. The red lines are showing the support levels and the green line is indicating the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Resistance levels: 0.7135, 0.7150, and 0.7185

Support levels: 0.7050, 0.7025, and 0.700

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NZD/USD Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for December 29, 2017

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Daily Outlook

A recent bullish breakout above the downtrend line took place on May 22. Since then, the market has been bullish as depicted on the chart.

This resulted in a quick bullish advance towards next price zones around 0.7150-0.7230 (Key-Zone) and 0.7310-0.7380 which was temporarily breached to the upside.

Recent bearish pullback was executed towards the price zone of 0.7310-0.7380 (newly-established demand-zone) which failed to offer enough bullish support for the NZD/USD pair.

Re-consolidation below the price level of 0.7300 enhanced the bearish side of the market. This brought the NZD/USD pair again towards 0.7230-0.7150 (Key-Zone) which failed to pause the ongoing bearish momentum.

An atypical Head and Shoulders pattern was expressed on the depicted chart which initiated bearish reversal.

As expected, the price level of 0.7050 failed to offer enough bullish support for the NZD/USD pair. That's why, further bearish decline was expected towards 0.6800 (Reversal pattern bearish target).

Evident signs of bullish recovery was expressed around the recent low (0.6780). That's why, a bullish pullback is expected towards 0.7050.

Moreover, further bullish advance should be expected towards 0.7150 if enough bullish momentum is expressed above the price level of 0.7050.

Trade Recommendations:

An inverted Head and Shoulders pattern was established on the chart indicating high probability of bullish momentum.

That's why, the price zone of 0.6800-0.6830 was considered for a short-term BUY entry. Bullish persistence above 0.6950 and 0.7050 is mandatory to pursue towards next bullish targets.

S/L should be moved to 0.7040 to secure some profits. T/P level remains projected towards 0.7150 and 0.7240.

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for December 29, 2017

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Overview:

  • Pivot point is seen at the price of 0.7062.
  • The NZD/USD pair is moving upwards from the level of 0.7062. Last two days, the pair rose from the level of 0.7062 to a top around 0.7090. Today, the first resistance level is seen at 0.7160 followed by 0.7227, while daily support 1 is seen at 0.7062. According to the previous events, the NZD/USD pair is still moving between the levels of 0.7050 and 0.7160. Furthermore, if the trend is able to break out through the first resistance level at 0.7160, we should see the pair climbing towards the double top (0.7227) to test it. Therefore, buy above the level of 0.7100 with the first target at 0.7160 in order to test the daily resistance 1 and further to 0.7227. Also, it might be noted that the level of 0.7227 is a good place to take profit because it will form a new double top on the H4 chart. On the other hand, in case a reversal takes place and the NZD/USD pair breaks through the support level of 0.7062, a further decline to 0.6978 can occur which would indicate a bearish market. On the whole, we still look for a strong bullish market as lon as the trend is still set above the spot of 0.7062.
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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for December 29, 2017

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Overview:

  • As expected, the USD/CHF pair continues to move downwards from the areas of 0.9800. Yesterday, the pair dropped from the level of 0.9800 to 0.9757, which coincides with a ratio of 23.6% Fibonacci on the H4 chart. Today, resistance is seen at the levels of 0.9800 and 0.9849. So, we expect the price to set below the strong resistance at the levels of 0.9800 and 0.984; because the price is in a bearish channel now. Amid the previous events, the price is still moving between the levels of 0.9800 and 0.9734 (double bottom). In overall, we still prefer the bearish scenario as long as the price is below the level of 0.9800. Furthermore, if the USD/CHF pair is able to break out the bottom at 0.9734, the market will decline further to 0.9700 (the level of 0.9734 will form a double bottom). On the other hand, if the price closes above the strong resistance of 0.9849, the best location for a stop loss order is seen above 0.9760; hence, the price will fall into a bearish trend in order to go further towards the strong support at 0.9700 to test it again.
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Bitcoin analysis for 29/12/2017

The South Korean government will announce that it will forbid domestic cryptocurrency exchanges to allow users to make transactions via anonymous accounts. As part of what appears to be a series of updates aimed at improving the supervision of industry practitioners, the government will also try to prohibit banks from issuing new virtual accounts on cryptocurrency exchanges. According to the South Korean news agency Yonhap, the statements were announced by Hong Namki, minister of the Office for Coordination of Government Policy, after discussions with vice-ministers from other government bodies after the recent increase in interest in crypto-valuables and their possession among the local community. Hong's announcement came just after an hour since the head of the Korean financial regulator warned against the Bitcoin bubble during a press meeting.Hong added that only accounts confirmed with identity could be allowed for deposits and withdrawals. A government ban on using anonymous accounts is seen in South Korea as the latest step towards curbing trade related to cryptocurrencies in the country. According to the report, the financial intelligence unit and the financial supervisory service will implement the regulation and supervise the stock exchanges in order to comply with the new rule.

Let's now take a look at the Bitcoin technical picture at the H4 time frame. The market is still in a corrective cycle as it hovers around the weekly pivot at the level of $14,371. The key level for bulls is the technical resistance at the level of $16,628, just above the 61% Fibo retracement. The key level for bears is the technical support at the level of $11,174. The corrective wave 4 might likely evolve into a triangle pattern before the uptrend will continue to the new highs.

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Trading plan for 29/12/2017

Just before the start of the last session in 2017 on the Old Continent, the leader is NZD/USD with 0.3% gains. Based on the upcoming data on inflationary pressure, it may partly count the Euro (0.1%), which is trying to stabilize the EUR/USD rate above 1.1950. The pound sterling (0.2%) and the Japanese yen (0.2%) record a slightly more bold move.

On Friday 29th of December, the event calendar is light in important economic releases, but the market participants will keep an eye on the Eurozone Money Supply data, German Preliminary Consumer Price Index data and Baker Hughes U.S. Rig Count.

EUR/USD analysis for 28/12/2017:

In the earlier economic calendar, investors' attention was drawn to the American economic data again. The amount of positive surprise was ensured by stocks of wholesalers, which from month to month recorded 0.7% jump to 0.3% expected by the market consensus. In the meantime, the newly filed applications for unemployment benefit were published, which indicated stabilization of the observed trend (245,000, previously: 245,000). The ISM index was boosted by the barometer of the economic climate prepared by Chicago economists. The 67.6 point indicator clearly surprised the expectations that the rally was to be expected from 63.9 points to 62.0 points. Behind this movement, there is, among others, a more substantial increase in new orders or the strongest sentiment among consumers since September.Nevertheless, all the good data did not help much the US Dollar as it is deteriorating slowly across the board.

Let's now take a look at the EUR/USD technical picture at the H4 time frame. The market has broken above the technical resistance at the level of 1.1961 and currently is rallying higher towards the next technical resistance at the level of 1.2000. The market conditions are overbought, but the momentum remains strong. The nearest technical support is seen at the level of 1.1941.

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Market Snapshot: Crude Oil trading above $60.00

The price of Crude Oil has made another higher high above the level of $60 at $60.33. Nevertheless, due to the overbought market conditions and clear bearish divergence at the H4 time frame, the price might start to pull-back from the elevated levels and test the technical support at the level of $60.00 and in a case of extension $59.50.

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Market Snapshot: DAX at the key support

The German DAX index is trading at the key support at the level of 12,953 after the right shoulder high was made at the level of 13,306. If this level will be broken, then the next support is seen at the level of 12,848, just above the neckline of the Head & Shoulders technical pattern. Breakout to the downside is still possible.

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Burning Forecast 28/12/2017

Burning Forecast 28/12/2017

EURUSD: Buy from the kickbacks.

The euro exchange rate showed new signals for growth: reach the top level of a daily order of 1.1900, closing the day higher.

Keep buying from 1.1815 and lock in profits at inputs from 1.1900.

Buy from the rollback from 1.1900.

Important: New Year is approaching - and sudden price jumps are possible, it is necessary to strictly control the risks.

Conservative investors should think about a break in trading. Happy New Year, all health and all the best!

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Fundamental Analysis of NZD/USD for December 28, 2017

NZD/USD has broken above the 0.7050 resistance area recently which led to creating a new higher high in the process. NZD has been quite strong with the gains recently amid temporary weakness in USD due to recent downbeat economic reports and conditions. Today, US Unemployment Claims report was published with an unchanged figure of 245k which was expected to decrease to 240k, Goods Trade Balance was published with a greater deficit of -69.7B from the previous figure of -68.1B which was expected to be at -67.7B, and Chicago PMI report showed an increase to 67.6 from the previous figure of 63.9 which was expected to be at 62.2. On the NZD side, New Zealand presented no economic reports this week and despite that NZD gained impulsive momentum to break above a strong level of 0.7050. As for the current scenario, the impulsive break against USD signals weakness of USD against NZD and how far NZD can dominate USD in the coming days. As the pressure builds up, NZD is expected to gain more momentum in the coming days until the US comes up with better than expected macroeconomic reports to support its recovery or future gains.

Now let us look at the technical chart. The price is currently residing above the 0.7050 event level which is expected to be retested before price proceeds higher towards 0.72 resistance area in the coming days. The price has been bullish since the bounce off the 0.68 support area and the bullish bias is expected to continue further until price remains above 0.70 support area in the coming days.

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Bitcoin analysis for December 28, 2017

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Bitcoin (BTC) has been trading downwards. As I expected, the price tested the level of $13,156. The government of South Korea held a meeting on Thursday to discuss measures to deal with the growing trend of cryptocurrency speculation. The regulators clarified the clampdown on virtual accounts as well as other measures to end anonymity. In addition, the Ministry of Justice suggested an even more extreme measure. The technical picture looks bearish.

Trading recommendations:

According to the 1H time - frame, I found that there is a successful rejection from the resistance and a confirmed head and shoulders formation, which is a sign that buying looks risky. My advice is to watch for potential selling opportunities. The projected downward targets are set at the price of $12,120 and at the price of $10,645.

Support/Resistance

$14,332 – Intraday resistance (price action)

$12,120 – First objective target

$10,645 – Second objective target

With InstaForex you can earn on cryptocurrency's movements right now. Just open a deal in your MetaTrader4.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for December 28, 2017

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Monthly Outlook

In January 2015, the EUR/USD pair moved below the major demand levels near 1.2050-1.2100 (multiple previous bottoms set in July 2012 and June 2010). Hence, a long-term bearish target was projected toward 0.9450.

In March 2015, EUR/USD bears challenged the monthly demand level around 1.0500, which had been previously reached in August 1997.

In the longer term, the level of 0.9450 remains a projected target if any monthly candlestick achieves bearish closure below the depicted monthly demand level of 1.0500.

However, the EUR/USD pair has been trapped within the depicted consolidation range (1.0500-1.1450) until the current bullish breakout was executed above 1.1450.

The current bullish breakout above 1.1450 allowed a quick bullish advance towards 1.2100 where recent evidence of bearish rejection was expressed (Note the previous Monthly candlestick of September).

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Daily Outlook

In January 2017, the previous downtrend was reversed when the Inverted Head and Shoulders pattern was established around 1.0500. Since then, evident bullish momentum has been expressed on the chart.

As anticipated, the ongoing bullish momentum allowed the EUR/USD pair to pursue further bullish advance towards 1.1415-1.1520 (Previous Daily Supply-Zone).

The daily supply zone failed to pause the ongoing bullish momentum. Instead, evident bullish breakout was expressed towards the price level of 1.2100 where the depicted Head and Shoulders reversal pattern was expressed.

If the recent bearish breakout persists below 1.1700 (Neckline of the reversal pattern), a quick bearish decline should be expected towards the price zone of 1.1415-1.1520 (Initial targets for the depicted H&S pattern).

Bearish target for the depicted Head and Shoulders pattern extends towards 1.1350. However, to pursue towards the mentioned target level, significant bearish pressure is needed to be applied against the mentioned zone (1.1415-1.1520).

However, In November, recent price action around the price zone of 1.1520-1.1415 indicated evident bullish recovery.

This hindered further bearish decline which allowed the current bullish pullback to occur towards the price level of 1.1900 where price action should be watched for a possible SELL entry.

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Global macro overview for 28/12/2017

It will take about a week to repair the damaged infrastructure in the Es Sider terminal after the explosion of the oil transporting pipeline in Libya last Tuesday. Oil production in Libya fell by 12.0% below 1 million barrels per day to 950 thousand bpd. Before the gas pipeline explosion, the crude oil production was 1.08 million bpd. Loading of oil in Es Sider dropped by 50.0%, and this month it was expected to load the raw material for 13 tankers, each for 600,000 barrels of oil.

On the other hand, the US received information that oil stocks fell last week. The American Petroleum Institute reported that inventories decreased by 5.96 million barrels. Today, market participants will receive another inventories data from the US Department of Energy (DoE) at 03:30 pm GMT. Analysts expect a drop in US oil stocks of 3.90 million barrels after another drop last week of 6.48 million barrels. Market participants can expect a slight decline in quotations and then a stable level, because despite the fact that the US oil stocks are declining, the price growth may halt the higher shale oil production in the US .

Let's now take a look at the Crude Oil technical picture at the H4 time frame. The market is still hovering around the level of $60.00 in overbought trading conditions. The nearest technical support is seen at the level of $59.04 and it looks like it might be tested soon. As long as the golden trend line is not violated, the trend remains bullish.

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Global macro overview for 28/12/2017

The sentiment of the American households was much stronger than it could have been deduced from the median forecasts by Bloomberg. In December the Conference Board index reached the level of 122.1 pts (consensus: 128.0 pts), which should be treated as the aftermath of a strong breakdown in perspective assessment (99.1 pts, previously: 111.0 pts). The above estimates slightly stifle optimism related to the dynamics of individual consumption in the following quarters, which were previously supported by a clearly sharpened trajectory of retail sales. In the meantime, the index of signed home purchase contracts has been published as well. Month by month, the volume of transactions surged by 0.2% (consensus: -0.5%), thus registering an annual increase of 0.6%.

Let's now take a look at the USD/JPY technical picture at the H4 time frame. The worse than expected data helped bears push the price to the level of 112.64, which is 61% Fibo retracement of the previous leg up. Currently, the market conditions are oversold, so a rebound from the support can occur shortly. The key level to the upside remains at the level of 113.74.

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EUR/USD analysis for December 28, 2017

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Recently, the EUR/USD pair has been trading upwards. The price tested the level of 1.1946. Anyway, according to the 1H time – frame, I found a rising wedge formation in creation, which is sign that buying looks risky. I also found a hidden bearish divergence on the moving average oscillator, which is anotherr sign of weakness. My advice is to watch for potential selling opportunities. The first downward target is set at the price of 1.1900 and if the price breaks the level of 1.1900, EUR/USD might visit 1.1740.

Resistance levels:

R1: 1.1915

R2: 1.1940

R3: 1.1970

Support levels:

S1: 1.1860

S2: 1.1830

S3: 1.1805

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential selling opportunities.

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USD/JPY analysis for December 28, 2017

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Recently, the USD/JPY pair has been trading sideways downwards. The price tested the level of 112.66. Anyway, according to the 4H time – frame, I found a major upward trendline (support) on the test, which is a sign that selling looks risky. I also found a hidden bullish divergence on the stochastic oscillator, which is another sign of strength. My advice is to watch for potential buying opportunities. The upward targets are set at the price of 113.35 and at the price of 113.63.

Resistance levels:

R1: 113.84

R2: 114.40

R3: 115.15

Support levels:

S1: 112.50

S2: 111.75

S3: 111.18

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential buying opportunities.

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BITCOIN Analysis for December 28, 2017

Bitcoin has been impulsively bearish recently and currently residing below the $14,000 price area. The price did recover well from the drastic fall towards $11,100 price area but could not sustain the gains and currently heading towards the same price level again. The volatility in the Bitcoin is currently quite extreme which created a false break above the $15,500 price area before the impulsive bearish pressure. As for the current scenario, price is residing below the Kumo cloud support which was expected to hold the price for further bullish movement in the pair and push the price higher. Moreover, the dynamic levels of 20 EMA, Tenkan and Kijun line are currently working as resistance residing above the recent candles to hold a further bullish move in the future. As the price remains below $15,500 price area with a daily close, the bearish bias is expected to continue further with target towards $11,100 price area.

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for December 28, 2017

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Overview:

  • The NZD/USD pair continues to move upwards from the level of 0.7032. Yesterday, the pair rose from the level of 0.7032 to a top around 0.7090. Today, the first resistance level is seen at 0.7100 followed by 0.7160, while daily support 1 is seen at 0.7032 (78.6% Fibonacci retracement). According to the previous events, the NZD/USD pair is still moving between the levels of 0.7050 and 0.7160; so we expect a range of 110 pips. Furthermore, if the trend is able to break out through the first resistance level at 0.7100, we should see the pair climbing towards the double top (0.7160) to test it. Therefore, buy above the level of 0.7062 with the first target at 0.9990 in order to test the daily resistance 1 and further to 0.7100. Also, it might be noted that the level of 0.7160 is a good place to take profit because it will form a new double top on the H4 chart. On the other hand, in case a reversal takes place and the NZD/USD pair breaks through the support level of 0.7032, a further decline to 0.6940 can occur which would indicate a bearish market.
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NZD/USD Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for December 28, 2017

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Daily Outlook

A recent bullish breakout above the downtrend line took place on May 22. Since then, the market has been bullish as depicted on the chart.

This resulted in a quick bullish advance towards next price zones around 0.7150-0.7230 (Key-Zone) and 0.7310-0.7380 which was temporarily breached to the upside.

Recent bearish pullback was executed towards the price zone of 0.7310-0.7380 (newly-established demand-zone) which failed to offer enough bullish support for the NZD/USD pair.

Re-consolidation below the price level of 0.7300 enhanced the bearish side of the market. This brought the NZD/USD pair again towards 0.7230-0.7150 (Key-Zone) which failed to pause the ongoing bearish momentum.

An atypical Head and Shoulders pattern was expressed on the depicted chart which initiated bearish reversal.

As expected, the price level of 0.7050 failed to offer enough bullish support for the NZD/USD pair. That's why, further bearish decline was expected towards 0.6800 (Reversal pattern bearish target).

Evident signs of bullish recovery was expressed around the recent low (0.6780). That's why, a bullish pullback is expected towards 0.7050.

Moreover, further bullish advance should be expected towards 0.7150 if enough bullish momentum is expressed above the price level of 0.7050.

Trade Recommendations:

An inverted Head and Shoulders pattern was established on the chart indicating high probability of bullish momentum.

That's why, the price zone of 0.6800-0.6830 was considered for a short-term BUY entry. Bullish persistence above 0.6950 and 0.7050 is mandatory to pursue towards next bullish targets.

S/L should be moved to 0.7010 to secure some profits. T/P level remains projected towards 0.7110 and 0.7240.

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for December 28, 2017

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Overview:

  • The USD/CHF pair continues to move downwards from the level of 0.9884. Yesterday, the pair dropped from the level of 0.9884 to the bottom around 0.9800. But the pair could not rebound from the bottom of 0.9800; because it is still moving around the spot of 0.9800. Today, the first support level is seen at 0.9791, the price is moving in a bearish channel now. Furthermore, the price has been set below the strong resistance at the level of 0.9827, which coincides with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level. This resistance has been rejected several times confirming the veracity of a downtrend. Additionally, the RSI starts signaling a downward trend. As a result, if the USD/CHF pair is able to break out the first support at 0.9827, the market will decline further to 0.9763 in order to test the weekly support 2. Consequently, the market is likely to show signs of a bearish trend. So, it will be good to sell below the level of 0.9827 with the first target at 0.9763 and further to 0.9734. However, stop loss is to be placed above the level of 0.9856.
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Fundamental Analysis for EUR/CAD for December 28, 2017

EUR/CAD has been very volatile recently which lead to impulsive bullish and bearish pressure back to back within a short-period of time and range. The price is currently residing above the channel and horizontal support area of 1.50 whereas a break below this level with a daily close is expected to lead to series of bearish pressure in the pair. Today EUR ECB Economic Bulleting was held which did not quite contributed well to the EUR gains leading to further indecision in the pair. The pair is already very low in liquidity today and having no economic events or news from the CAD side the most waited bearish breakout is currently on hold. As of the current situation, the price is expected to have a break below the support area of 1.50 in the coming days which is expected to lead to a new bearish trend with a long-term view of shorting opportunities in the market.

Now let us look at the technical view, the price is currently residing above the Channel support and Horizontal Support level of 1.50 which is expected to break below very soon. As the price breaks below the level with a daily close then we will be looking forward to selling with the target towards 1.4750 support area in the future. As the price remains below 1.53 price area the bearish bias is expected to continue further.

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Fundamental Analysis of EUR/GBP for December 28, 2017

EUR/GBP has been trading inside the corrective range of 0.8750 to 0.9030 for a while now. Both currencies in the pair has been quite indecisive with mixed economic reports recently that have led to further correction and consolidation in this pair. Today, the ECB Economic Bulletin was published that did not encourage further EUR gains over GBP. On the other hand, today the UK High Street Lending report was published with a decreased figure of 39.5k from the previous figure of 40.4k that was expected to be at 40.6k. The price is currently very volatile and indecisive due to downbeat economic reports published today in the eurozone and the UK. Moreover, due to less liquidity in the market, the momentum is very slow and steady. As for the current scenario, a definite trend cannot be predicted now but EUR is expected to have an upper hand over GBP as upcoming economic reports and events are expected to be hawkish in the coming days.

Now let us look at the technical chart. The price is currently consolidating above the dynamic level of 20 EMA after the recent false break below the support level of 0.8750. Currently the price is expected to push higher with a target towards 0.9030 resistance area. As the price remains above 0.8750 price level, the bullish bias is expected to continue further.

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Bitcoin analysis for 28/12/2017

The controversial hard fork Bitcoin - SegWit2x - according to the official website of the project will be introduced on December 28th. The SegWit2x project, which caused months of debate and conflicts within the Bitcoin community, is to be carried out on block 501451.

The project's founder, Jaap Terlouw, stated on his site that fork is supposed to deal with issues of speed and transaction commission in the Bitcoin network, adding that currently, Bitcoin is practically unsuitable for use as a means of payment. Confirmation that the fork will actually take place is indicated both in the action plan on the project website, as well as in the Terlouw words: "Our team will perform a hard fork Bitcoin, which was scheduled for mid-November."

The founder also promised that in addition to the common practice of crediting BTC holders with equivalent new coin balances (B2X), they will also receive a proportional number of Bitcoins Satoshi Nakamoto as a reward for their commitment to development. The project's roadmap includes features such as Lightning Network support, intelligent contracts and anonymous transactions..

Let's now take a look at the Bitcoin technical picture at the H4 time frame. The market reversed from the level of $16.367 after three wave advance was made. The corrective cycle is continuing as the price is again dropping towards the local support at the level of $14,271. There is a high probability that the wave 4 will be in a shape of a triangle pattern.

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Trading plan for 28/12/2017

Just before the start of the London session, the EUR/USD rate breaks through the level of 1.1930. The New Zealand dollar (0.5%) and the Japanese yen (0.5%) are fighting for the name of the strongest gaining counterparts, which pushes the USD / JPY to the level of 112.80. At the far end, there is a pound sterling with 0.3% gain. The prospect of a lack of political reshuffles leaves the scenario of an attack by GBP / USD at a round level of 1.3500.

On Thursday 28th of December, the event calendar is light in important data releases, but during the US session, there is data worth of keeping an eye on: Unemployment Claims, Continuing Claims, Goods Trade Balance, Chicago Purchasing Manager Index and Crude Oil Inventories.

EUR/USD analysis for 28/12/2017:

Investors' attention was drawn to the latest estimates of the consumers' mood index by Conference Board. Based on newly published data, there is a more solid deterioration in sentiment than it would appear from the median forecasts by Bloomberg (consensus: 128.0 pts, previously: 128.6 pts). The index's drop to the level of 122.1 points is primarily the collapse of the prospects assessment (99.1 pts, previously: 111.0 pts), which partially melts the optimism, supported, among others, by the clearly sharpened trajectory of retail sales. On the other hand, on the US real estate market, the index of signed purchase contracts for a home rose unexpectedly by 0.2%. (consensus: -0.5%), thus complementing a series of good news flowing from both the secondary and primary market.

There are not many important data from the Eurozone today, but the pack of the US data later in the day might get the rates moving a little, especially if the data will be worse than expected.

Let's now take a look at the EUR/USD technical picture at the H4 time frame. The market is testing the technical resistance zone at the level of 1.1941 and the momentum is strong, so another leg up is expected. The level of 1.1961 is the line in the sand for the bears, because any violation of this resistance will lead to the further rally towards the level of 1.2000.

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Market Snapshot: USD/CAD testing the lower range of the zone

The price of USD/CAD has reversed from the level of 1.2919 and now is testing the range zone at the level of 1.2618, which is a 61% Fibo retracement as well. Any extension of the drop would lead to the test of the important support zone between the levels of 1.2598 - 1.2556.

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Market Snapshot: Gold takes no prisoners

The price of Gold is rallying towards the next technical resistance at the level of $1,298, but the market conditions are overbought. The nearest technical support is seen at the level of $1,288.Moreover, there is a slight gap to fill up between the levels of $1,275 - $1,277.

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for December 28, 2017

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Our first downside target which we predicted in yesterday's analysis has been hit. The pair is under pressure below the key resistance at 113.40. The relative strength index is below its neutrality level at 50 and lacks upward momentum. To conclude, as long as 113.40 isn't surpassed, look for a further drop to 112.40. A break below of this level would trigger another decline to 112.05.

Alternatively, if the price moves in the opposite direction, a long position is recommended above 113.40 with a target of 113.65.

Chart Explanation: The black line shows the pivot point. The current price above the pivot point indicates a bullish position, while the price below the pivot point is a signal for a short position. The red lines show the support levels and the green line indicates the resistance level. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Strategy: SELL, Stop Loss: 113.40, Take Profit: 112.40

Resistance levels: 113.65, 113.85 and 114.10 Support Levels: 112.40, 112.05, 111.70

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for December 28, 2017

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USD/CHF is expected to trade with a bearish outlook. The pair is clearly reversing down, capped by its falling 20-period and 50-period moving averages. The recent bearish breakout of a key horizontal level at 0.9885 should open the downside path toward 0.9810. Last but not least, the relative strength index is badly directed and calls for a new pullback.

To conclude, as long as 0.9875 isn't surpassed, look for further downsides to 0.9810 and 0.9795 in extension.

Chart Explanation: The black line shows the pivot point. The present price above the pivot point indicates a bullish position, and the price below the pivot points indicates a short position. The red lines show the support levels and the green line indicates the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Strategy: SELL, Stop Loss: 0.9875, Take Profit: 0.9810

Resistance levels: 0.9900, 0.9915, and 0.9935

Support levels: 0.9810, 0.9795, and 0.9750

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Technical analysis of GBP/JPY for December 28, 2017

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All our targets which we predicted in Yesterday's analysis have been hit. The pair managed to hold above its horizontal support at 151.20, and is likely to challenge the next resistance at 0.8895. A bullish breakout of this threshold seems more likely to occur, as both the 20-period and 50-period moving averages are turning up, and should confirm a positive outlook. The relative strength index calls for a new rise.

Hence, above 151.20, look for 152.10 and 152.35 in extension.

Alternatively, if the price moves in the direction opposite to the forecast, a short position is recommended below 151.20 with the target at 150.70

Strategy: BUY, Stop Loss: 151.20, Take Profit: 152.10

Chart Explanation: the black line shows the pivot point. The price above the pivot point indicates long positions; and when it is below the pivot points, it indicates short positions. The red lines show the support levels and the green line indicates the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Resistance levels: 152.10, 152.35, and 152.70

Support levels: 151.00, 150.75, and 150

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for December 28, 2017

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Our first upside target which we predicted in Yesterday's analysis has been hit. NZD/USD is still expected to continue its upside movement. The pair remains bullish above its key support at 0.7050 and is likely to challenge the next resistance at 0.7115. The rising 50-period moving average maintains the strong buying pressure on the prices. In addition, the relative strength index is above its neutrality area at 50.

In which case, as long as 0.7050 holds on the downside, look for further advance to 0.7115 and 0.7135 in extension.

The black line shows the pivot point. Currently, the price is above the pivot point, which is a signal for long positions. If it remains below the pivot point, it will indicate short positions. The red lines are showing the support levels and the green line is indicating the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Resistance levels: 0.7050, 0.7070, and 0.7100

Support levels: 0.6970, 0.6950, and 0.6920

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Daily analysis of major pairs for December 28, 2017

EUR/USD: The EUR/USD has been going upwards in a bullish movement continuation. Price has moved above the support line at 1.1900 and it may soon reach the resistance line at 1.1950. However, a strong buying pressure is needed for the price to break the resistance line at 1.1950 to the upside, and then propel it towards another resistance line at 1.2000. That is a possibility that could be attained next week.

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USD/CHF: This pair has broken southwards from its recent short-term consolidation. This has put more emphasis on the ongoing bearish outlook on the market, and the support level at 0.9800 could be reached this week, and possibly exceeded next week. The price has already gone below the resistance level at 0.9850.

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GBP/USD: This pair has not made any changes to the neutral bias on it. The price is thus expected to oscillate between the accumulation territory at 1.3250 and the distribution territory at 1.3500 within the next several trading days. However, a breakout will occur early January. A few fundamental figures are coming out today and they may have an impact on the market.

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USD/JPY: This currency trading instrument is moving lower and lower, but that is not yet strong enough to threaten the bullish outlook on the market. Once the demand level at 117.50 is breached to the downside, the bias on the market would turn bearish (and that could be the situation till the end of the year).

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EUR/JPY: This cross is bullish – and unlike the USD/JPY – it has been able to maintain its bullishness. The EMA 11 remains above the EMA 56, and the RSI period 14 remains above the level 50. This a Bullish Confirmation Pattern. Price is above the demand zone at 134.50 and would target the supply zone at 135.00.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for December 28, 2017

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Wave summary:

EUR/NZD likely bottomed with the test of 1.6800 and we are now looking for a break above minor resistance at 1.6876 and more importantly a break above resistance at 1.6927 to confirm wave ii has completed and wave iii is developing for a rally towards 1.7777.

At no point can a break below important support at 1.6744 be allowed under this count.

R3: 1.7064

R2: 1.6993

R1: 1.6927

Pivot: 1.6876

S1: 1.6800

S2: 1.6780

S3: 1.6744

Trading recommendation:

We are long EUR from 1.6873 with stop placed at 1.6795.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for December 28, 2017

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Wave summary:

EUR/JPY has seen a new high above 134.88 and more upside will remain expected as long as support at 134.17 is able to support EUR/JPY. The break above resistance seen at 134.50 calls for a possible move higher to 137.37 to complete wave (D) and set the stage for a final decline in wave (E) towards 123.43.

A direct break below 134.17 will indicate a top already is in place and the break above 134.50 was a bull-trap.

R3: 136.05

R2: 135.75

R1: 134.97

Pivot: 134.17

S1: 133.84

S2: 133.62

S3: 133.12

Trading recommendation:

We are long EUR from 134.10 and we will move our stop+revers higher to 134.10.

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Fundamental Analysis of AUD/JPY for December 28, 2017

AUD/JPY has been very non-volatile with the bullish gains since it bounced off the 84.00 support area and breached above the 85.70 level. AUD has been quite positive with its gains all over the market since it published positive Employment Change report in the recent week which did help the currency to gain sustainable momentum without any pullback against JPY. The most interesting thing was having JPY no chance to create any counter in the recent days despite JPY having some of its best economic reports results. Today in the morning, JPY had some gains over AUD which did look quite promising off the 88.00 price area after the positive economic reports were published including Prelim Industrial Production grew to 0.6% which was expected to be unchanged at 0.5% and Retail Sales which showed significant rise to 2.2% from the previous negative value of -0.2% which was expected to be at 1.1%. Additionally, today BOJ Core CPI report is yet to be published which is expected to be unchanged at 0.5%. Despite having positive economic reports already JPY failed to sustain the counter move in this pair whereas AUD is taking charge of the momentum already. On the other hand, AUD does not have any economic reports to be published today but tomorrow Private Sector Credit report is going to be published which is expected to be unchanged at 0.4%. Though the economic report is expected to be unchanged any positive shift in the value would result in further impulsive pressure from AUD over JPY. To sum up, AUD is currently expected to dominate JPY further despite any positive economic reports of JPY going to be published or not. Unless JPY comes up with any positive high impact economic report and something to change the market sentiment, AUD is expected to gain further momentum.

Now let us look at the technical view, price is currently residing inside the resistance area of 88.00 to 89.00 area where the price expected to have some corrections progressing higher. The non-volatile price structure that price has been maintaining so far do create some pre-breakout structure which hints about upcoming bullish breakout above 89.00 level in the coming days with target towards 90.50 area. As the price remains above 86.50 the impulsive bullish bias is expected to continue further.

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