Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for December 12, 2017

analytics5a2fb4dfc84fc.png

Monthly Outlook

In January 2015, the EUR/USD pair moved below the major demand levels near 1.2050-1.2100 (multiple previous bottoms set in July 2012 and June 2010). Hence, a long-term bearish target was projected toward 0.9450.

In March 2015, EUR/USD bears challenged the monthly demand level around 1.0500, which had been previously reached in August 1997.

In the longer term, the level of 0.9450 remains a projected target if any monthly candlestick achieves bearish closure below the depicted monthly demand level of 1.0500.

However, the EUR/USD pair has been trapped within the depicted consolidation range (1.0500-1.1450) until the current bullish breakout was executed above 1.1450.

The current bullish breakout above 1.1450 allowed a quick bullish advance towards 1.2100 where recent evidence of bearish rejection was expressed (Note the previous Monthly candlestick of September).

analytics5a2fb4e941dea.png

Daily Outlook

In January 2017, the previous downtrend was reversed when the Inverted Head and Shoulders pattern was established around 1.0500. Since then, evident bullish momentum has been expressed on the chart.

As anticipated, the ongoing bullish momentum allowed the EUR/USD pair to pursue further bullish advance towards 1.1415-1.1520 (Previous Daily Supply-Zone).

The daily supply zone failed to pause the ongoing bullish momentum. Instead, evident bullish breakout was expressed towards the price level of 1.2100 where the depicted Head and Shoulders reversal pattern was expressed.

If the recent bearish breakout persists below 1.1700 (Neckline of the reversal pattern), a quick bearish decline should be expected towards the price zone of 1.1415-1.1520 (Initial targets for the depicted H&S pattern).

Bearish target for the depicted Head and Shoulders pattern extends towards 1.1350. However, to pursue towards the mentioned target level, significant bearish pressure is needed to be applied against the mentioned zone (1.1415-1.1520).

However, In November, recent price action around the price zone of 1.1520-1.1415 indicated evident bullish recovery. This hindered further bearish decline which allowed the current bullish pullback to occur towards the price level of 1.1900.

Trade Recommendations

The price levels around 1.1900-1.1950 were suggested for a valid short-term SELL entry. It's already running in profits.

S/L should be lowered to 1.1870 to secure some of the profits. Remaining T/P levels to be located at 1.1700 and 1.1590.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

NZD/USD Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for December 12, 2017

analytics5a2fb45ecbf43.png

Daily Outlook

A recent bullish breakout above the downtrend line took place on May 22. Since then, the market has been bullish as depicted on the chart.

This resulted in a quick bullish advance towards next price zones around 0.7150-0.7230 (Key-Zone) and 0.7310-0.7380 which was temporarily breached to the upside.

Recent bearish pullback was executed towards the price zone of 0.7310-0.7380 (newly-established demand-zone) which failed to offer enough bullish support for the NZD/USD pair.

Re-consolidation below the price level of 0.7300 enhanced the bearish side of the market. This brought the NZD/USD pair again towards 0.7230-0.7150 (Key-Zone) which failed to pause the ongoing bearish momentum.

An atypical Head and Shoulders pattern was expressed on the depicted chart which initiated bearish reversal.

As expected, the price level of 0.7050 failed to offer enough bullish support for the NZD/USD pair. That's why, further bearish decline was expected towards 0.6800 (Reversal pattern bearish target).

Evident signs of bullish recovery was expressed around the recent low (0.6780). That's why, a bullish pullback is expected towards 0.7050.

Trade Recommendations:

An inverted Head and Shoulders pattern is being established on the chart indicating high probability of bullish reversal.

That's why, the price zone of 0.6800-0.6830 can be considered for a short-term BUY entry. S/L should be placed below 0.6770. T/P level remains projected towards 0.7050.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Bitcoin analysis for 12/12/2017

There are many stories about lost and long-lost Bitcoins that are worth a fortune today. The Bulgarian government may just be holding bitcoins seized a few months earlier, worth as much as about 18% of the country's debt. It is about Bitcoins confiscated in May this year by a criminal group operating in the Balkans. Criminals dealt with the installation of Trojans on government computer services.The tactics of criminals consisted in recruiting corrupt customs officials in Greece, Serbia, Macedonia, Romania and Bulgaria in order to infect customs information systems. After installing the virus, criminals were able to manage cargo and cleans information. In total, 23 people were detained, 5 of them were Bulgarian customs officers. The police intercepted communication devices, computers, tablets and bank documents. On one of the computers, there were ... 213,519 Bitcoins. Today, when the exchange rate is around $ 15,000, the value of requisitioned Bitcoins is well over $3 billion. The whole situation resembles that of Silk Road, where the services have seized 144,000BTC. Bitcoins have been sold on several auctions.

Whether the Bulgarian government will decide to sell Bitcoins is not known. At the moment, there are no plans for a seized cryptocurrency yet. Any possible sale will not be easy even for legal reasons.

Let's now take a look at the Bitcoin technical picture at the H4 time frame. A new all-time high has been made at the level of $17,216 but there is still a potential for another high in wave (3) as the current internal wave progression looks incomplete. The nearest support is seen at the level of $15,950. The trend is still up and there are no signs of a trend reversal.

analytics5a2fa13d44171.jpg

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Trading plan for 12/12/2017

Tuesday's trade in FX is calm and investors have reduced their activity, waiting for more interesting events of the second part of the week. The main markets are moving sideways. EUR / USD drifts at 1.1770, USD / JPY remains close to 113.50, and GBP / USD fluctuates at 1.3340.The NZD remains the leader, pulling AUD with it. The equity market is correcting Monday's rises. Crude oil sustains rally caused by information on disruptions in production.

On Tuesday 12th of December, the event calendar is quite busy with various economic data releases. During the London session, France will publish data, the UK will present Consumer Price Index data and Germany will post ZEW Economic Sentiment data. During the US session, the US will post PPI index data and Federal Budget Balance data. ECB Chair Mario Draghi speech is scheduled at 07:00 pm GMT.

GBP/USD analysis for 12/12/2017:

The beginning of the week on the FX market was not spectacular. The news from New York contributed to the temporary outflow of capital towards safe havens, after an attack with an improvised bomb was confirmed. At the head of the G10 currency basket, the New Zealand dollar is still in the lead as the choice of Adrian Orr for the Governor of the RBNZ next term makes NZD/USD rally 1.1%.

Consumer inflation in the United Kingdom is to remain at 3.0%, but since the Bank of England is just after the interest rate hike, the data at this stage are not a significant point of appreciation. At present, the political turmoil around Brexit plays a more important role in the predominance of threats and opportunities, so it seems more reasonable to extinguish the possible strength of the Pound after the data.

Let's now take a look at the GBP/USD technical picture at the H4 time frame. The market dropped to the technical support level at 1.3338 and broke below the lower channel line. This is the key level of support for bulls, so if violated, then the price might accelerate the sell-off towards the level of 1.3279 and 1.3211. The momentum indicator is below its fifty level, which supports the bearish bias.

analytics5a2f9ed9c591c.jpg

Market Snapshot: Crude Oil bounces heavily

The price of Crude Oil bounced from the level of 55.65 after the news, that the largest British pipeline transporting Crude Oil from the bottom of the North Sea can be shut down for several weeks due to an uncovered leakage. Currently, the price is trading close to the short-term trend line resistance around the level of 58.70, but it looks like the target is the recent high at the level of 59.04. Strong bullish momentum supports the bias.

analytics5a2f9ee2b42a2.jpg

Market Snapshot: EUR/GBP tests the trend line resistance

The price of EUR/GBP has bounced from the level of 0.8688 to test the long-term trend line resistance around the level of 0.8830. This is the key resistance zone, because the supply zone between the levels of 0.8840 - 0.8868 is close and all the moving averages are close as well. It will be a tough area to violate, which is why the outlook remains bearish.

analytics5a2f9eea92c88.jpg

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Ichimoku cloud indicator analysis of USDX for December 12, 2017

The Dollar index is in a pullback phase towards 93.40. I expect the pullback that started on Friday to continue today and tomorrow towards 93.40. Price bounced yesterday but so far we have a lower high.

analytics5a2f8ff544f82.png

Black rectangle - target area

Red rectangle - short-term support

Black lines - wedge pattern

The Dollar index is trading above the Ichimoku cloud. Trend is bullish. Support is at 93.70. Breaking this level will push price towards our short-term target and Ichimoku cloud support at 93.30-93.40. Resistance is at 94.15.

analytics5a2f9053c734f.png

The Dollar index has bounced off the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. On a weekly basis, we have made an important low at 92.50 as expected and we have started the next leg up towards 96-97. We might see a short-term pullback towards 93.30 but I believe we are heading higher over the coming weeks. A rejection at 94 will be a bearish sign. Key support at 92.50. Break it and we are off to new lows below 91.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Ichimoku cloud indicator analysis of gold for December 12, 2017

Gold price made a new low yesterday at $1,241. Price remains in a bearish trend. I continue to expect prices to bounce towards $1,255-60 area before any meaningful downside move towards $1,220-$1,200.

analytics5a2f8e85a43ac.png

Red lines - bearish channel

Black lines - bullish divergence

We observe bullish divergence signs in the 4 hour chart. Price has resistance the $1,247 level and support at $1,220. A break above resistance will confirm my short term bounce view towards cloud resistance $1,260-70.

analytics5a2f8ed638c89.png

On a weekly basis price has entered the weekly Kumo (cloud). This is not good for long-term bulls. Price at the end of the week must at least gives a bounce off this weekly support area, otherwise bulls will be in trouble. Last time price tested the weekly Kumo (cloud), price reached the lower cloud boundary and rallied 130$ to $1,350. Let's see what it does this time.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Fundamental Analysis of GBP/USD for December 12, 2017

GBP/USD is currently quite bearish in nature having strong rejection of the bulls yesterday by bouncing off the weekend gap created in the market.

This week, both central banks in the UK and the US are holding policy meetings. The US Fed is widely expected to increase its funds rate to 1.50% from the previous value of 1.25%.

Next day, the Bnak of England is going to announce its policy decision, so the key interest rate is expected to remain unchanged at 0.50%. By the end of this week, a good amount of volatility is expected along with a directional bias of the market. This should be analized to track the upcoming direction in this pair. Today, the UK CPI report is going to be published which is expected to be unchanged at 3.0%, PPI Input report is expected to increase to 1.6% from the previous value of 1.0%, RPI report is expected to show a slight increase to 4.1% from the previous value of 4.0%, Core CPI is expected to be unchanged at 2.7%, HPI report is expected to decrease to 5.2% from the previous value of 5.4%, and PPI Output is expected to be unchanged at 0.2%. On the USD side, today the US PPI report is going to be published which is expected to be unchanged at 0.4%, Core PPI report is expected to decrease to 0.2% from the previous value of 0.4%, and NFIB Small Business Index report is expected to increase to 104.6 from the previous figure of 103.8. As for the current scenario, the pair is already quite volatile but with the upcoming high impact economic events and reports, the pair is expected to get a directional bias which is most likely to be on the USD side, taking the price much lower in the coming days.

Now let us look at the technical chart. The price is currently showing some bearish pressure off the dynamic level of 20 EMA above the support area of 1.33. The price is expected to break below 1.33 to reach the lower support area of 1.31 area in the coming days. The rate rike decision on Wednesday opens doors for the USD to gain more momentum. As the price remains below 1.35, the bearish bias is expected to continue further.

analytics5a2f84352a669.jpg

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Burning Forecast 12/12/2017

Burning Forecast 12/12/2017

EURUSD: buy on the breakthrough of 1.1815.

The situation on the foreign exchange market is uncertain - two important events ahead are the decisions on monetary policy of two major central banks: the decision of the Fed on December 13 and the decision of the ECB on December 14.

The sluggish trade on Monday confirmed the key levels for further movement on the euro: the level of 1.1815 upwards and the level of 1.1728 downwards.

We, in the aggregate of fundamental and technical factors, consider it more likely to move upwards.

Buy at the break of a level of 1.1815 upwards, stop-loss at 1.1770, targets - 1.1940 and further towards 1.2080.

An alternative scenario is possible - a breakthrough downwards at 1.1728 in this case.

Sell for a breakdown of 1.1728, stop-loss at 1.1773, target of 1.1628.

analytics5a2f8123066b3.jpg

:

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Fundamental Analysis of USD/JPY for December 12, 2017

USD/JPY has been impulsive and non-volatile with the bullish gains after bouncing off the support area of 110.80 to 111.70. JPY has been quite positive with the recent economic reports that helped the currency to gain some momentum and halt the impulsive gains of USD along the way. On the other hand, high impact economic reports from the US are going to be published this week which includes Federal Funds Rate report which will announce the rate increase to 1.50% from the previous value of 1.25%. Today, Japan's PPI report was published with an increase to 3.5% from the previous value of 3.4% which was expected to decrease to 3.3% and Tertiary Industry Activity report was published with an increase to 0.3% from the previous negative value of -0.2% which was expected to be at 0.2%. As the readings were better than expected, JPY gained good momentum against USD today which is expected to pause the bullish move with certain consolidation before the Rate Hike. On the USD side, NFIB Small Business Index report is due later today which is expected to increase to 104.6 from the previous figure of 103.8, PPI is expected to be unchanged at 0.4%, and Core PPI is expected to decrease to 0.2% from the previous value of 0.4%. To sum up, JPY is currently quite strong in light of Japan's economic reports that provided JPY with some support today and may lead to some consolidation before the Fed's rate hike when USD is expected to shoot up higher towards 116.50 in the future.

Now let us look at the technical chart. The price is currently showing some bearish pressure in the impulsive bullish trend. The price is currently expected to correct itself a bit which might fall towards the dynamic level of 20 EMA or 113.00 support area before launching up higher towards 116.50 after the rate hike decision on Wednesday. As the price remains above 113.00, the impulsive bullish bias is expected to continue further.

analytics5a2f727b11c23.jpg

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Pound fled from politics

A busy economic calendar and the departure of political risks into obscurity allows us to hope for the return of investors in actively trading the pound. Semiannual negotiations between London and Brussels, judging by the statements of the latter, were completed successfully, which makes it necessary to shift attention to macroeconomic data. In general, there is plenty of data at the beginning of the second week of the month for the UK. Inflation, the labor market, retail sales and the meeting of the Bank of England will satisfy even the highest demands of trade analysts on the news.

The fall of sterling in response to positive news from the negotiation table on Brexit has become a classic example of the implementation of the principle of "buy on the rumor, sell on the facts." Traders sold the GBP/USD quotes on the factor of harmonizing the conditions of the divorce between Britain and the EU, and the message that the round-the-clock work was over and the issue of the Irish border was resolved. This launched a wave of selling against the backdrop of profit taking. Moreover, popular media referring to competent sources reported that the trade deal before the spring of 2018 will not be achieved. However, the bridgehead is laid, and the bulls on sterling, including Nomura and ING, believe that the reduction of political risks of the UK will push the GBP/USD pair in the direction of 1.4 in 2018 and 1.36 in the near future.

On the contrary, "bears" criticize the agreement that was reached, blaming it for lack of details, and referred to the futures market, where the value of options to sell sterling is higher than the purchase. Derivatives are used for risk insurance, and the current dynamics of an indicator such as the risk of reversal (the ratio of premiums on call and put), indicates that investors still fear the sterling's collapse.

Dynamics of the ratio of premiums on options

analytics5a2e69916d538.png

Source: Bloomberg.

On the other hand, speculators in the futures market held a net long position on the pound for 6 of the last 10 weeks, although before that they acted as net sellers for 98 five-day consecutive days.

Lately, there have been too many news with political coloring, and it's time for the sterling to turn its focus on the economy. In general, the outlook for upcoming releases is moderately positive. Bloomberg experts do not expect inflation to exceed the critical level of 3%, while the acceleration of average wages from 2.2% to 2.5% y/y. In addition to that, the exit from the negative territory of retail sales inspires optimism for bulls in the GBP/USD pair. Moreover, it is beneficial for the Bank of England to maintain a strong pound with the help of "hawkish" rhetoric, and the dollar cannot take advantage of strong data on the US.

It is possible that the growth of the fiscal deficit as a result of the implementation of the tax reform, the reluctance of Donald Trump to see the US currency strong and the recovery of the economies of the competing countries will force the USD index to restore the downward trend in 2018.

Technically, the GBP/USD pair is preparing to retest the upper bound of the previous consolidation range at 1.304-1.332. Assuming that it, like the previous one, ends with the defeat of the "bears", the likelihood of a restoration of the uptrend in the sterling will then increase.

GBP/USD, daily chart

analytics5a2e699ad0876.png

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Daily analysis of major pairs for December 11, 2017

EUR/USD: Throughout last week, the EUR/USD pair went downwards by 120 pips, thus leading to a Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the market. While the support levels at 1.1750 and 1.1700 could be tested, it is also expected that a rally will occur sometime this week, owing to a bearish run on the USD/CHF pair.

1.png

USD/CHF: Throughout last week, the USD/CHF pair went upwards by 160 pips, thus leading to a Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the market. While the resistance levels at 0.9950 and 1.0000 could be tested, it is expected that the pair would end up plummeting this week, because CHF would showcase an extraordinary level of stamina. Other currencies would also drop versus CHF.

2.png

GBP/USD: The bullish bias on the GBP/USD pair is not currently strong, because there were some subtle bearish attacks on the market last week. For the bullish bias to become strong, price would need to overcome the distribution territory at 1.3550. A movement below the accumulation territory at 1.3250 would result in a bearish outlook.

3.png

USD/JPY: This currency trading instrument went downwards on Monday and Tuesday, and then went upwards on Thursday and Friday. There is a bullish bias on the market, and the supply level at 113.50 is expected to be reached – even if there is going to be any major pullback at last.

4.png

EUR/JPY: This is a choppy, directionless market (both in the longer-term and the shorter-term), and it is prudent to stay away from the market until there is a break above the supply zone at 134.50; or until there is a break below the demand zone at 131.50. This would require a big momentum, and would happen in less than 14 days to this time.

5.png

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Global macro overview for 11/12/2017

At the start of the week, New Zealand Dollar jumped after information that Adrian Orr, the president of the NZ Super Fund will become the new president of Reserve Bank of New Zealand. This name does not tell us much, but it suffices to add that Orr has been employed in the central bank twice in his career and that domestic monetary policy is his domain. Although it is not yet possible to say a lot about the new chairperson attitude (hawkish-dovish), his choice removes from NZD the risk that the government could appoint a less predictable candidate more conducive to forced economic policy (or more dovish).

Currently, the NZD value exaggerated the political risk premium and in the short term, the NZD looks the most attractive among the commodity currencies. The global investors still expect the NZ economy to grow at a modest underlying pace, beneath the quarterly volatility in GDP. The September quarter is shaping up to be the weak spot for the year, but recent activity data points to a strong start to the December quarter. There are some challenges to the outlook for next year, but the economy seems to be coming from a stronger starting point than financial markets and business surveys are giving it credit for.

Let's now take a look at the NZD/USD technical picture in the H4 time frame. The market is still trading sideways in a narrow zone between the levels of 0.6779 - 0.6970. At the present, the price is testing the golden trend line dynamic resistance at the level of 0.6910 as it tries to bounce from the oversold levels.

analytics5a2e8967447a4.jpg

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Global macro overview for 11/12/2017

Neither better than expected (+228k) increase in NFP Payrolls employment, nor the preservation of unemployment from December 2000 at a minimum level of 4.1% could not exceed the disappointing salary statistics. The failure of the wage growth index in the annual (+ 2.5%) and monthly (+ 0.2%) settlements to reach the consensus of forecasts is weighing on the positive sentiment among the US Dollar bulls.

Investors still do not want to believe in Greenback and one is enough for them as a significant factor to return to buying EUR / USD again. Neither the tax reform in the US, nor the impressive US GDP growth, nor the historical maximum of US stock indices, nor the divergence in ECB and FED monetary policy, nor an increase in confidence in Donald Trump's economic policy does not deprive them of a desire not to buy, not recently glistening. fundamental drivers, the euro. Markets are upset because of the risk of the Federal Reserve's concern about slowing inflation. The private consumption expenditure index in October increased by 1.6%, the base indicator - by 1.4%. The target at the level of 2.0% is still far away, and more importantly, even close to the level of full employment, the economy can not generate the required inflation for the time being. In this case, the slower than expected rebound in the average wages after the hurricanes in the USA only increases the risk of "hawkish" rhetoric of Janet Yellen during the FOMC meeting in Wednesday this week.

In conclusion, at the next FOMC meeting, Jannet Yellen will most likely hike the interest rates to 1.50% and raise the economic forecast by 2.5% in this and next year, and replaced by Stanley Fischer Jerome Powell from the beginning was adopted as the new hawk of the Federal Committee for Open Market Operations.

Let's now take a look at the US Dollar Index technical picture at the H4 time frame. The market has managed to break out above the upper channel line and hit the level of 94.05, which is just above of 127% Fibo Expansion. The nearest technical support is seen at the level of 93.51, but the key technical resistance zone between the levels of 94.18 - 94.41 will be tough to break.

analytics5a2e7eb6822ae.jpg

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Bitcoin analysis for December 11, 2017

analytics5a2e7aa66b1d1.png

Bitcoin (BTC) has been trading upwards. As I expected, the price tested the level of $16,645. Latin America has known far more than its fair share of economic troubles over the years. Whether it's populist revolutions, military coups or some other calamity, the rich in the region always had to think of how to protect their wealth from possible confiscation, hyperinflation or whatever may come. Unlike in the past when they turned to offshore banking, real estate and gold, the best solution right now is also easily accessible by the poor and middle class, bitcoin. The technical picture looks bullish.

Trading recommendations:

According to the 15M time frame, I found the potential bullish flag pattern in creaction, which is a ign that selling looks risky. My advice is to watch for potential bullish breakout of the pattern to confirm futher upward continuation. The upward target is set at the price of $17,141.00.

Support/Resistance

$16,684– Intraday resistance (price action)

$15,648 – Intraday support

$17,141 – Objective point

With InstaForex you can earn on cryptocurrency's movements right now. Just open a deal in your MetaTrader4.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Analysis of Gold for December 11, 2017

analytics5a2e7613eea40.png

Recently, Gold has been trading downwards. The price tested the level of $1,244. Anyway, according to the 30M time- frame, I found that price is trading inside of a trading range between the price of $1,252.30 (resistance) and the price of $1,244.00 (support). Since the short-term trend is bearish, my advice is to watch for potential selling opportunities. The downward targets are set at the price of $1,244.00 and at the price of $1,239.70

Resistance levels:

R1: $1,252.37

R2: $1,256.57

R3: $1,260.77

Support levels:

S1: $1,243.97

S2: $1,239.77

S3: $1,235.57

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential selling opportunities.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

NZD/USD Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for December 11, 2017

analytics5a2e7260e0c54.png

Daily Outlook

A recent bullish breakout above the downtrend line took place on May 22. Since then, the market has been bullish as depicted on the chart.

This resulted in a quick bullish advance towards next price zones around 0.7150-0.7230 (Key-Zone) and 0.7310-0.7380 which was temporarily breached to the upside.

Recent bearish pullback was executed towards the price zone of 0.7310-0.7380 (newly-established demand-zone) which failed to offer enough bullish support for the NZD/USD pair.

Re-consolidation below the price level of 0.7300 enhanced the bearish side of the market. This brought the NZD/USD pair again towards 0.7230-0.7150 (Key-Zone) which failed to pause the ongoing bearish momentum.

An atypical Head and Shoulders pattern was expressed on the depicted chart which initiated bearish reversal.

As expected, the price level of 0.7050 failed to offer enough bullish support for the NZD/USD pair. That's why, further bearish decline was expected towards 0.6800 (Reversal pattern bearish target).

Evident signs of bullish recovery was expressed around the recent low (0.6780). That's why, a bullish pullback was expected towards 0.7050.

On the other hand, an inverted Head and Shoulders pattern is being established on the chart indicating bullish reversal.

That's why, the price zone of 0.6800-0.6830 can be considered for a short-term BUY entry. S/L should be placed below 0.6770. T/P level remains projected towards 0.7050.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for December 11, 2017

analytics5a2e725accbe5.png

Monthly Outlook

In January 2015, the EUR/USD pair moved below the major demand levels near 1.2050-1.2100 (multiple previous bottoms set in July 2012 and June 2010). Hence, a long-term bearish target was projected toward 0.9450.

In March 2015, EUR/USD bears challenged the monthly demand level around 1.0500, which had been previously reached in August 1997.

In the longer term, the level of 0.9450 remains a projected target if any monthly candlestick achieves bearish closure below the depicted monthly demand level of 1.0500.

However, the EUR/USD pair has been trapped within the depicted consolidation range (1.0500-1.1450) until the current bullish breakout was executed above 1.1450.

The current bullish breakout above 1.1450 allowed a quick bullish advance towards 1.2100 where recent evidence of bearish rejection was expressed (Note the previous Monthly candlestick of September).

analytics5a2e7268209e0.png

Daily Outlook

In January 2017, the previous downtrend was reversed when the Inverted Head and Shoulders pattern was established around 1.0500. Since then, evident bullish momentum has been expressed on the chart.

As anticipated, the ongoing bullish momentum allowed the EUR/USD pair to pursue further bullish advance towards 1.1415-1.1520 (Previous Daily Supply-Zone).

The daily supply zone failed to pause the ongoing bullish momentum. Instead, evident bullish breakout was expressed towards the price level of 1.2100 where the depicted Head and Shoulders reversal pattern was expressed.

If the recent bearish breakout persists below 1.1700 (Neckline of the reversal pattern), a quick bearish decline should be expected towards the price zone of 1.1415-1.1520 (Initial targets for the depicted H&S pattern).

Bearish target for the depicted Head and Shoulders pattern extends towards 1.1350. However, to pursue towards the mentioned target level, significant bearish pressure is needed to be applied against the mentioned zone (1.1415-1.1520).

However, recent price action around the price zone of 1.1520-1.1415 indicated evident bullish recovery. This hindered further bearish decline as long as the recent low around 1.1550 remains unbroken.

Trade Recommendations

The price levels around 1.1900-1.1950 were suggested for a valid short-term SELL entry. It's already running in profits.

S/L should be lowered to 1.1870 to secure some of the profits. T/P levels to be located at 1.1700 and 1.1590.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Trading Plan for EUR/USD and US Dollar Index for December 11, 2017

analytics5a2e6b48c2d1f.jpg

Technical outlook:

The EUR/USD pair dropped close to 1.1720/30 levels on Friday as expected and discussed earlier. The pair is seen to be pulling back through 1.1800 levels at this moment and is expected to drop lower again towards 1.1700/10 levels at least. A meaningful correction can be expected after that drop, towards 1.1850/60 levels. Please also note that immediate price support is seen at 1.1710 levels as well and hence pullback rally seems to be a natural process. The overall wave count also suggests that EUR/USD should be looking to push lower towards 1.1500 levels at least but after a pullback is complete. Besides, note that bullish divergences are beginning to show up on short-term time frames and hence taking profits on short positions around 1.1700/10 levels is a good plan for now.

Trading plan:

Please remain short, move stop to breakeven, target 1.1700/10

US Dollar Index chart setups:

analytics5a2e6e5442a4b.jpg

Technical outlook:

The US Dollar Index has pushed higher to estimated soft targets and remained shy by just about 10 points on Friday. The index has retraced a bit for now and it is expected to push through 94.20 levels, before producing a meaningful correction lower. It is also possible that the index produces the necessary correction now, before pushing higher. Please note that US Dollar Index bulls are wanting to take out price resistance at 94.20 levels as plotted here. Also note that the index should be looking to continue rallying towards 95.00 and higher levels till prices remain broadly above 92.50 levels going forward. For now, it is suggested to take profits off the desk around the 94.20 levels since a meaningful pullback can be expected then.

Trading plan:

Please remain long for now, stop at breakeven levels, target 94.20

Fundamental outlook:

No major fundamental events are lined up for the day.

Good luck!

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP/USD analysis for December 11, 2017

analytics5a2e6dda9c5c2.png

Recently, the GBP/USD pair has been trading downwards. The price tested the level of 1.3342. According to the 15M time- frame, I found that price broke the intraday bearish flag formation, which is a sign that buying looks risky. I also found a stochastic oscillator in the overbought zone, which is another sign of weakness. My advice is to watch for potential selling opportuntities. The downward targets are set at the price of 1.3333 and at the price of 1.3265.

Resistance levels:

R1: 1.3496

R2: 1.3590

R3: 1.3662

Support levels:

S1: 1.3333

S2: 1.3262

S3: 1.3170

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential selling opportunities.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of EUR/USD for December 11, 2017

EURUSDH1.png

Overview:

  • The EUR/USD pair continues to move downwards from the level of 1.1817. Last week, the pair dropped from the level of 1.1817 to the bottom around 1.1729. But the pair has rebounded from the bottom of 1.1729 to close at 1.1800. Today, the first support level is seen at 1.1756, the price is moving in a bearish channel now. Furthermore, the price has been set below the strong resistance at the level of 1.1817, which coincides with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level. This resistance has been rejected several times confirming the veracity of a downtrend. Additionally, the RSI starts signaling a downward trend. As a result, if the EUR/USD pair is able to break out the first support at 1.1756, the market will decline further to 1.1729 in order to test the weekly support 2. Consequently, the market is likely to show signs of a bearish trend. So, it will be good to sell below the level of 1.1817 with the first target at 1.1756 and further to 1.1729. However, stop loss is to be placed above the level of 1.1872.
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of GBP/USD for December 11, 2017

GBPUSDDaily.png

Overview:

  • Pivot: 1.3017.
  • The GBP/USD pair is still moving upwards above the levels of 1.3017 and 1.3200. The first support level is currently seen at 1.3017. The trend is still set above the level of 1.3017 and 1.3200 for that the price is moving in a bullish channel now. Furthermore, the price has been set above the strong support at the level of 1.3017, which coincides with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. This support has been rejected three times confirming the veracity of an uptrend. According to the previous events, we expect the GBP/USD pair to trade between 1.3100 and 1.3655. So, the support is seen at 1.3017, while daily resistance is found at 1.3298. Therefore, the market is likely to show signs of a bullish trend around the spot of 1.3017/1.3200. In other words, buy orders are recommended above the zone of 1.30171.3200 with the first target at the level of 1.3298; and continue towards 1.3655 in coming days. On the other hand, if the GBP/USD pair fails to break through the resistance level of 1.3298 today, the market will decline further to 1.2820.
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Bitcoin analysis for 11/12/2017

The moment awaited by investors has become a fact. On Sunday, Bitcoin futures began trading. Despite the problems created by the big banks, the quotes started immediately, despite the fact, that the trade had to be halted twice because of reaching the upper limits of the price range.

The race in the launch of Bitcoin futures was won by the CBOE (Chicago Board Options Exchange), where the pre-session quotes (ie outside the official duration of the CBOE stock exchange session) took off on Sunday afternoon local time (around midnight GMT time). The deadline for launching contracts has begun a major correction, which took place in the Bitcoin market. After reaching record highs on Friday (depending on the source of data, Bitcoin beat $17,000 according to Coindesk, or even $18,000, according to Coinmarketcap), the Bitcoin rate fell by nearly 25%, approaching $ 13,000 on Sunday morning. But then, as usually after such big corrections on Bitcoin, the exchange rate strongly rebounded and on Monday morning Bitcoin quotations again exceed $16 500. This means that over the last 24 hours, nearly 25% could be gained on the Bitcoin itself, and over 10% on the north on Monday.

Next week, another US stock market will launch quotes for Bitcoin futures - it will be CME (Chicago Mercantile Exchange). For both CBOE and CME, Bitcoin contracts are not "physically" based on Bitcoins, which means that the buyer of the contract after its expiration, will not be able to demand the "physical" delivery of the underlying instrument for Bitcoins. Contracts will only be settled in cash.

Let's now take a look at the Bitcoin technical picture at the H4 time frame. The market has made an abc correction towards the level of $12, 627 and then rebounded towards the all-time highs. Please notice, that there is still one more wave missing, wave (v), to complete the impulsive five-wave progression towards the new highs. The nearest technical support is seen at the level of $14,066.

analytics5a2e4deb887e9.jpg

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Trading plan for 11/12/2017

The New Zealand Dollar is the star at the start of the new week in reaction to the election of the president of the RBNZ. The rest of the market is calmly awaiting the central bank marathon. The stock market in Asia is green. Japanese Nikkei225 increased by 0.6%, Hang Seng growing by 0.8%. It's calm on the commodity market. Crude Oil falls by 0.3% up to 57.2 USD, Gold is growing 0.1%. up to 1250 USD.

On Monday 11th of December, the event calendar is light in important news releases. Only data to be released are Retail Sales in Italy and JOLTs Job Openings from the US.

EUR/USD analysis for 11/12/2017:

In general, this week we have a central bank marathon with the main focus on the Fed, where the interest rate increase is almost certain. Banks from Switzerland, Norway, the United Kingdom and the Eurozone may also be interesting as all of them will make the interest rate decision later this week. Moreover, a series of inflation readings will provide information on chances for changes in monetary policy. The British Pound will be sensitive to information about Brexit agreements before the EU summit.

Let's now take a look at the EUR/USD technical picture at the H4 time frame in this quiet Monday morning. After retracing 50% of the previous swing up the market is ready for a bounce higher towards the first technical resistance at the level of 1.1807. The oversold market conditions support the temporary bullish outlook. The key level to the upside remains at 1.1961. The market might keep trading sideways as it awaits the central bank's interest rates decision (Fed on Wednesday, ECB on Thursday).

analytics5a2e4b3095ed2.jpg

Market Snapshot: USD/JPY breaks above 61% Fibo

The price of USD/JPY has broken above the 61% Fibo retracement at the level of 113.24 and managed to violate the technical resistance at the level of 113.44. New local high at the level of 113.68 is the key level for bears, as any violation of this high before the local low at the level of 113.09 would directly expose the level of 113.90 for a test.

analytics5a2e4b3a92e04.jpg

Market Snapshot: DAX30 Head and Shoulders pattern still on table

The price of German DAX is still hovering around the right shoulder zone as it opened with a gap up towards the level of 13,254. Only a violation of the level of 13, 254 and then 13,336 would invalidate the current trend reversal pattern and pushed the price higher towards the recent swing high.

analytics5a2e4b42e835f.jpg

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Ichimoku cloud indicator analysis of USDX for December 11, 2017

The Dollar index has hit the first important resistance area and is turning back downwards. From last week when we reached our 92.50 target in the index, we said a strong bounce should follow but bulls will also need to be careful in case we see a rejection at 94-94.15 area.

analytics5a2e39c8904bd.png

Black rectangle - support area

The Dollar index has broken below the 4-hour tenkan-sen. This is an initial reversal signal. Support is at 93.55. Next is at 93.40. Resistance remains at 94-94.15. Important short-term support is at 93-92.80. A break below this area will cancel my bullish view for 96-97.

analytics5a2e3a3c91c32.png

The Dollar index reached our target of 92.50 and bounced as expected. Now price has reached the first important resistance area of 94. This area is crucial if we are to see a bigger bounce towards 96-97. Bulls will need to break above it, otherwise a strong rejection here will open the way for a move below 90. Confirmation for this bearish scenario will come on a break below 92.80-93 support area.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Ichimoku cloud indicator analysis of gold for December 11, 2017

Gold price remains in a bearish trend. However Gold is showing signs of at least a bounce in the short-term. Gold price is expected to bounce at least for a couple of days. Minimum bounce target is at $1,260.

analytics5a2e38c690ab6.png

Gold price is trading above the 4-hour tenkan-sen (Red line indicator). Both MACD and the RSI are turning upwards from oversold levels. This suggests that today we should see a bounce. First important resistance is at $1,260 and next at $1,271. Support is at $1,242.

analytics5a2e3915af510.png

On a weekly basis Gold price has reached the Kumo support. This is an area where I do not prefer to be short. I expect a bounce from this area. Important weekly resistance is at $1,274-79. A weekly close above this area will turn trend to strongly bullish again.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Trading plan for December 11-15, 2017

Trading plan for December 11-15, 2017

The picture: Two important news - the Fed and the ECB. And the end of the year.

The last full week before Christmas and New Year starts.

And there are two major events - the Fed and the ECB.

The Fed will not surprise the public: Inflation in the US is below the lower limit of the attention of the Fed (that is below 2%), in addition, the dollar is strong, and the Fed's leadership will change in the coming months. There is no reason to surprise the public - expect to raise the rate by + 0.25% and will raise further - but very gradually. The Fed will meet on on December 13th.

But the decision of the ECB on December 14 may bring surprises - in favor of the euro.

Play breakthrough euro short-term range: buy on the breakdown of 1.1815, sell on breakdown of 1.1728

GBPUSD:

Slowly and painfully - but upward.

Buy from 1.3415 with the target of 1.3550.

analytics5a2e30c390d2e.jpg

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Burning Forecast 12/11/2017

Burning Forecast 12/11/2017

EURUSD: Good buying opportunities.

The euro exchange rate experienced a significant decline last week - but the key support at 1.1712 is not broken. It is very likely that the previous decline is just a correction to growth, and that growth will continue.

On the new week, there are two major events - the decisions of the Fed and the ECB on December 13 and 14.

It is not guaranteed that the Fed will accelerate the rate hike, but the ECB can bring surprises: The ECB still has a negative deposit rate for banks, despite a significant improvement in the economy of the EU. You can expect the ECB to strengthen monetary policy - and the sharp increase in the euro.

Buy the EURUSD pair for a breakdown of 1.1815 to the top, stop-loss at 1.1770, target of 1.1940 and further towards 1.2080.

Reserve option - sell for a breakthrough downwards of 1.1728.

analytics5a2e2ed5c0910.jpg

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for December 11, 2017

analytics5a2e2c8f9a3ca.png

Wave summary:

We have seen the expected decline and with the break below 1.7077 and continuation closer to 1.7000 is expected. Short-term resistance is now seen at 1.7105 and stronger resistance is seen at 1.7150, which should be able to cap the upside for the expected decline to 1.7000 and maybe even closer to 1.6922.

R3: 1.7220

R2: 1.7150

R1: 1.7105

Pivot: 1.7077

S1: 1.7050

S2: 1.7000

S3: 1.6981

Trading recommendation:

We are short EUR from 1.7200 and will move our stop lower to 1.7125.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Daily analysis of USDX for December 11, 2017

The index has been rallying above the 200 SMA across the board and it's facing the resistance level of 94.00, which should act as a strong barrier for buyers. To the downside, the moving average needs to hold in order to allow further gains in USDX. However, if it breaks below that area, next target to face lies at 92.70.

USDXH1.png

H1 chart's resistance levels: 94.00 / 94.37

H1 chart's support levels: 93.40 / 92.70

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place buy (sell) orders only if the USD Index breaks with a bullish candlestick; the resistance level is at 94.00, take profit is at 94.37 and stop loss is at 93.73.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Daily analysis of GBP/USD for December 11, 2017

The pair starts a decisive week as it can be the latest one of the year, in terms of volatility. BoE's interest rate decision is due this Thursday and GBP/USD is preparing the ground to decide the next path. If the pair manages to break above 1.3417, then we can expect an advance towards the 1.3541 level. MACD indicator remains in the negative territory, favoring to the downside.

GBPUSDH1.png

H1 chart's resistance levels: 1.3417 / 1.3541

H1 chart's support levels: 1.3303 / 1.3228

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, buy (long) orders only if the GBP/USD pair breaks a bullish candlestick; the resistance level is at 1.3417, take profit is at 1.3541 and stop loss is at 1.3298.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for December 11, 2017

analytics5a2e2b22a7c6a.png

Wave summary:

EUR/JPY remains lock inside the 131.14 - 134.50 range, which we think is a topping pattern developing. It will eventually resolve itself to the downside and a break below important support at 131.14 confirm that wave (D) has completed and wave (E) lower to the ideal target at 123.43 is developing.

That said, an unexpected break above 134.50 will shift the bias towards more upside pressure to 137.37 to complete wave (D).

R3: 134.50

R2: 134.17

R1: 133.97

Pivot: 133.41

S1: 133.11

S2: 132.69

S3: 132.23

Trading recommendation:

Our break-even stop at 133.75 has been hit. We will sell EUR again at 134.00 or upon a break below 133.41 with the stop placed at 134.60.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of EUR/USD for Dec 11, 2017

EURUSD.jpg

When the European market opens, some economic data will be released such as Italian Retail Sales m/m. The US will present several economic reports as well such as 10-y Bond Auction and JOLTS Job Openings. So amid the reports, EUR/USD will move with low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVELS:

Breakout BUY Level: 1.1829

Strong Resistance: 1.1822

Original Resistance: 1.1811

Inner Sell Area: 1.1800

Target Inner Area: 1.1772

Inner Buy Area: 1.1744

Original Support: 1.1733

Strong Support: 1.1722

Breakout SELL Level: 1.1715

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of USD/JPY for Dec 11, 2017

USDJPY.jpg

In Asia, Japan will release the Prelim Machine Tool Orders y/y, M2 Money Stock y/y, and BSI Manufacturing Index. The US will release some Economic Data as well such as 10-y Bond Auction and JOLTS Job Openings. So there is a probability the USD/JPY pair will move with low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVELS:

Resistance 3: 114.19

Resistance 2: 113.96

Resistance 1: 113.74

Support 1: 113.47

Support 2: 113.25

Support 3: 113.03

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

USD/JPY time to turn bullish on pullback support

Price has broken a key level of support triggering our bullish move. We look to buy above major support at 113.11 (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap support) for a push up to at least 113.90 resistance (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal swing high resistance).Stochastic (34,3,1) is showing major resistance at 96% so we expect a retracement first to get us into a good entry position before our bounce.

Buy above 113.11. Stop loss at 112.79. Take profit at 113.90.

analytics5a2dfdee98f47.png

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com