Global macro overview for 28/12/2017

The sentiment of the American households was much stronger than it could have been deduced from the median forecasts by Bloomberg. In December the Conference Board index reached the level of 122.1 pts (consensus: 128.0 pts), which should be treated as the aftermath of a strong breakdown in perspective assessment (99.1 pts, previously: 111.0 pts). The above estimates slightly stifle optimism related to the dynamics of individual consumption in the following quarters, which were previously supported by a clearly sharpened trajectory of retail sales. In the meantime, the index of signed home purchase contracts has been published as well. Month by month, the volume of transactions surged by 0.2% (consensus: -0.5%), thus registering an annual increase of 0.6%.

Let's now take a look at the USD/JPY technical picture at the H4 time frame. The worse than expected data helped bears push the price to the level of 112.64, which is 61% Fibo retracement of the previous leg up. Currently, the market conditions are oversold, so a rebound from the support can occur shortly. The key level to the upside remains at the level of 113.74.

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