Trading plan EURUSD 11/08/2019

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On Thursday, the euro continued to decline, consolidating below 1.1070.

The growth is stopped – range.

The reasons for the decline of the euro: the weakness of the eurozone economy compared to the US economy and the zero rate of the Central Bank.

In the US, the dollar received support from optimism on the US-China trade agreement.

We are on sale from 1.1070, however, the real downward trend will only start below 1.0870.

The upward trend will continue above 1.1180.

Possible purchases on the breakthrough of 1.1095 up.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EURUSD and AUDUSD: Progress in trade negotiations supports the US dollar. RBA sees risks to the economy and lowers forecast

Progress in trade negotiations and the likelihood of the abolition of mutual duties of the US and China support the US dollar and put pressure on gold, which declined significantly this week. Yesterday, the Ministry of Trade of China said that after difficult negotiations, it is likely that the parties will simultaneously cancel duties in the same amounts. However, this will be done only after the first phase trade agreement is signed. China is optimistic about the results of the current negotiations and considers them constructive. However, it is worth noting that a number of the most important issues relating to the intellectual property of American companies operating in China have not been resolved. However, the first phase of the agreement does not include these problematic points, and most likely will be signed shortly.

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Yesterday's data on the US labor market helped the dollar to strengthen its position against the euro and the pound. According to a report by the US Department of Labor, the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits for the week of October 27 to November 2 fell by 8,000 to 211,000. Economists had expected the number of applications to be 215,000. The four-week moving average fell by 250 and amounted to 215,250. The number of secondary applications for the week from October 20 to 26 fell by 3,000 and amounted to 1.689 million.

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But the data on consumer lending in the US did not please investors much, as it indicated a slowdown in growth. According to the report, consumer lending in the United States in September of this year grew by only 9.51 billion dollars, after an increase in August by 17.84 billion dollars. The slowdown in lending, albeit indirectly, is a leading indicator for the pace of retail sales, which may show weaker growth in the 3rd quarter of this year.

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The speech by Fed President-Atlanta Bostic was no different from the statements made by his colleagues earlier this week. Rafael Bostic believes that current interest rates are at the right levels and now is the time for the Fed to watch the data before changing policy again. The risks of the representative of the Fed attributed the tension in trade relations, as there is already some evidence of a negative impact on the economy.

As for the technical picture of the EURUSD pair, further bearish momentum will directly depend on the market reaction to the breakdown of the intermediate support of 1.1045. Fixing below this level may increase the pressure on risky assets, and the update of yesterday's low will push the trading instrument to the area of 1.1020 and 1.0990. If the bears do not receive the necessary support from the roar, the upward correction in the euro will be limited to the resistance of 1.1090, from where the big players have been trying to build a bearish trend for the last two days.

AUDUSD

The Australian dollar ignored the new inflation forecasts that were given today by the Reserve Bank of Australia. According to the report of economists, inflation for June 2020 should reach the level of 2.0%, against 1.75%. As for the forecast for GDP growth, in June 2020, it was revised in the negative direction to 2.5% from 2.75%. The lowering of the forecast is directly related to the trade conflict between the USA and China, which affects Australia's services sector. Short-term bearish risks for the Australian economy are also associated with housing.

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Overview of GBP/USD on November 8th. Forecast according to the "Regression Channels". Pound sterling in anticipation of GDP

4-hour timeframe

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Technical data:

The upper channel of linear regression: direction – upward.

The lower channel of linear regression: direction – upward.

The moving average (20; smoothed) – down.

CCI: -141.6137

The British pound paired with the US currency continues a slow decline. Both channels of linear regression are still directed upwards, which still signals a possible resumption of the upward trend at almost any moment. However, the fundamental background remains negative for the pair. The British currency has very few growth factors. Yesterday, for example, at the passing meeting of the Bank of England, it became clear that two members of the monetary committee voted for an immediate reduction in the key rate. This is the most bearish factor for the pound that could be. Now, it turns out that the easing of monetary policy by the British Regulator is a matter of time. If it could be assumed that shortly macroeconomic statistics in the UK will improve, then the probability of lowering the key rate would be 50/50. In our case, the questions arise, as the Bank of England did not take such a step much earlier? We have already said that most experts and traders agreed that there will be no change in monetary policy until there is clarity on the issue of Brexit. And until that moment, at least another month and a half, or even more. Accordingly, at the next meeting, the Regulator, led by Mark Carney, may not wait for a decision of the new Parliament on Brexit and decide to lower the rate. Thus, as in the case of the euro currency, there is now much more reason for the further fall of the British currency than for its growth. The upward movement of the pound/dollar pair may be justified in December or January when hypothetically the chances of the UK leaving the European Union with a "deal" will increase.

Today can be considered a day off for the British pound. Not a single macroeconomic report in the UK (we are even used to this), one minor publication in the United States. There is simply nothing to analyze. Well, traders, most likely, will not try to increase their activity, which leaves much to be desired in recent weeks. Thus, the pound will continue its sluggish downward movement with very low volatility, and at the end of the trading day, a small pullback up is possible for the same reasons as for the EUR/USD pair. But on Monday, from Foggy Albion, there will be a sufficient amount of macroeconomic statistics, which can "ride a skating rink" in British currency. Industrial production, GDP in monthly, quarterly and annual terms will be published. And guess what forecasts for these indicators? Negative. That is, it is expected that the quarterly and monthly value of GDP will decrease, and industrial production may lose 0.4%.

From a technical point of view, the indicator Heiken Ashi painted the last bars in blue, so there is no reason to close short positions now. The trend in the short term remains downward. The fundamental side of the issue also supports the continuation of the downward movement.

Nearest support levels:

S1 – 1.2787

S2 – 1.2756

S3 – 1.2726

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 – 1.2817

R2 – 1.2848

R3 – 1.2878

Trading recommendations:

The GBP/USD pair has settled below the moving average line and continues its weak downward movement. Formally, traders can consider selling the pound with targets of 1.2787, 1.2756, and 1.2726. However, we would not recommend doing this in large volumes, as both trend channels of linear regression remain directed upwards, and the volatility of the pair is now quite low. However, it remains more preferable to the downward movement of the pair in the coming days.

In addition to the technical picture, fundamental data and the time of their release should also be taken into account.

Explanation of the illustrations:

The upper channel of linear regression – the blue lines of the unidirectional movement.

The lower channel of linear regression – the purple line of the unidirectional movement.

CCI – the blue line in the regression window of the indicator.

The moving average (20; smoothed) – blue line on the price chart.

Support and resistance – red horizontal lines.

Heiken Ashi – an indicator that colors bars in blue or purple.

Possible variants of the price movement:

Red and green arrows.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Overview of EUR/USD on November 8th. Forecast according to the "Regression Channels". Correction Friday for the euro

4-hour timeframe

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Technical data:

The upper channel of linear regression: direction – upward.

The lower channel of linear regression: direction – upward.

The moving average (20; smoothed) – down.

CCI: -92.4955

The last trading day of the week. A week that could be the first in a series of a long fall cycle against the US currency. If you look at the 24-hour timeframe, you can see with the naked eye the graphic pattern "double top", which signals a reversal of the euro/dollar down. Accordingly, traders may well expect the fall of the euro currency to two-year lows, near which it was traded a few weeks ago. So far, the price has rested against Murray's level of "5/8" - 1.1047, which it could not overcome, but it seems that overcoming this target is a matter of time. The fundamental background continues to put pressure on the European currency. Any news from Europe is potentially downside factors for the euro. Data from the US upset traders much less often, so there is nothing logical in the growth of the dollar. Even yesterday, the seemingly secondary indicator of industrial production in Germany turned out to be such a failure value that traders had no other options but to resume selling the euro currency.

On Friday, November 8, Germany is scheduled to publish changes in the volume of imports, exports and trade balance for September. This is not even secondary indicators, but tertiary one. With a 95% probability, traders will not pay any attention to them. However, they will again show the state of the country's economy, which is considered to be the locomotive of the European economy. Another deterioration in Germany clearly will not add optimism to the bulls. In addition to news from Germany, we are waiting only for the University of Michigan consumer confidence index. It is also far from the most important indicator, which, moreover, will be released in the evening, when traders are preparing to leave for the weekend. Thus, we can assume that today is almost empty in terms of macroeconomic data. Towards evening, we can expect a movement against the trend that will develop during the day (it will probably be a downtrend), as market participants can begin to take profits on open positions. And since most of the positions in the pair are short now, the rollback is likely to follow upward.

Separately, we can talk about the long-term prospects of the euro currency paired with the dollar. What are the chances of the pair going below the current two-year lows? What global factors continue to influence the pair's movement? We believe that the chances of a new rally down are now quite high. Although a few weeks ago, the actions of the Fed gave reason to believe that the "dollar" trend has been completed. But the economy of the European Union is in such a weak state that few investors are willing to buy the euro currency among investors. Thus, the euro is now bought on the interbank market only when a major player needs to make payments in euros. Such transactions, especially if they are large, can also affect the movement of the pair. However, in general, the news for the European currency is very bad.

Nearest support levels:

S1 – 1.1047

S2 – 1.0986

S3 – 1.0925

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 – 1.1108

R2 – 1.1169

R3 – 1.1230

Trading recommendations:

The euro/dollar pair overcame the moving average and worked out the Murray level of "5/8". Since the Heiken Ashi indicator continues to paint the bars blue, there is no reason to close the sales. Thus, it is possible to stay in short positions with a target of 1.0986. It is unlikely that this goal will be achieved today when the fundamental background is empty. It is recommended to return to purchases of the European currency not earlier than the reverse consolidation of the pair above the moving average.

In addition to the technical picture, fundamental data and the time of their release should also be taken into account.

Explanation of the illustrations:

The upper channel of linear regression – the blue line of the unidirectional movement.

The lower channel of linear regression – the purple line of the unidirectional movement.

CCI – the blue line in the indicator window.

The moving average (20; smoothed) – the blue line on the price chart.

Support and resistance – red horizontal lines.

Heiken Ashi – an indicator that colors bars in blue or purple.

Possible variants of the price movement:

Red and green arrows.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP/USD: plan for the European session on November 8. Pound sellers are preparing for the breakdown of support at 1.2805

To open long positions on GBP/USD you need:

Yesterday's decision by the Bank of England on the interest rate made traders nervous. Buyers are not yet very active, but they managed to protect the level of 1.2807 during the US session, on which quite a lot depends. As for the long positions today, you can only rely on them provided that a false breakout is formed in the region of 1.2807, but buying GBP/USD immediately on a rebound is best done after updating a low of 1.2762, or on a rebound from a larger level of 1.2713. The task of buyers in the afternoon will be to return to the resistance of 1.2838, which will limit the downward potential of the pound, again locking it in the side channel. In this scenario, we can expect a repeated update of the high of 1.2874, where I recommend profit taking.

To open short positions on GBP/USD you need:

Today, important fundamental statistics for the UK are not expected, so the focus will again be shifted to election campaigns. At the moment, the main goal of the pound sellers will be to break through and consolidate below the support of 1.2807, which will lead to a larger sale of GBP/USD with an update of the areas of 1.2762 and 1.2713, where I recommend profit taking. In the scenario of pair growth in the first half of the day, only the formation of a false breakout in the resistance area of 1.2838 will be the first signal to open short positions. I recommend selling the pair for a rebound only after updating a high of 1.2874.

Signals of indicators:

Moving averages

Trading is below 30 and 50 moving averages, which indicates a possible decline in the pound in the short term.

Bollinger bands

A break of the lower boundary of the indicator at 1.2790 will increase pressure on the pound. Growth will be limited by the upper level of the indicator at 1.2865.

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Description of indicators

  • MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow
  • MA (moving average) 30 days - green
  • MACD: Fast EMA 12, Slow EMA 26, SMA 9
  • Bollinger Bands 20
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR/USD: plan for the European session on November 8. Euro sellers will focus on support at 1.1046

To open long positions on EURUSD you need:

Buyers once again retreated from the market yesterday, losing the support level of 1.1050, which has now transformed into resistance around 1.1065. Weak data on Germany pushed away purchases of the European currency. Today, the bulls only have to rely on a false breakout of intermediate support at 1.1046, however, larger long positions should be postponed until the lows 1.1026 and 1.0994 are updated. The main task of EUR/USD buyers will be a return to the level of 1.1065, from which it will be possible to observe growth to a high of the last two days to the area of 1.1090, where I recommend profit taking.

To open short positions on EURUSD you need:

Sellers will count on the formation of a false breakout in the resistance area of 1.1065, where the moving averages are currently located. However, a breakthrough and consolidation below the support of 1.1046 will be a more important task, which, together with weak data on France, may lead to the continuation of the downward trend in the pair and update of the lows of 1.1026 and 1.0994, where I recommend profit taking. If in the first half of the day active sales will not be observed in the resistance area of 1.1065, I recommend postponing short positions in EUR/USD to test the high of 1.1090.

Signals of indicators:

Moving averages

Trading is conducted below 30 and 50 moving averages, which indicates a bearish nature of the market.

Bollinger bands

In case of growth, the upper boundary of the indicator in the region of 1.1085 will act as resistance. In the event of a decline, support will be provided by the lower boundary of the indicator in the region of 1.1026.

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Description of indicators

  • MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow
  • MA (moving average) 30 days - green
  • MACD: Fast EMA 12, Slow EMA 26, SMA 9
  • Bollinger Bands 20
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Control zones GBPUSD 11/08/19

When building a trading plan, it is necessary to take into account the fact that the closing of the last month occurred outside the middle course. This increases the likelihood of a return to the level of 1.2725 to 90%. If the close of today's trading occurs below the WCZ 1/2 1.2820-1.2801, then the return will become a matter of time and will happen next week.

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Work in a downward direction gives a favorable risk to profit ratio, however, sales from current levels are not profitable, as the pair is trading at a low of the last two weeks. If consolidated below this mark, sales will be highlighted.

An alternative model will be developed if the closure of today's trading occurs above the WCZ 1/2. This will make it possible again to consider purchases, the purpose of which will be a monthly high in the medium term.

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Daily CZ - daily control zone. The area formed by important data from the futures market, which change several times a year.

Weekly CZ - weekly control zone. The zone formed by important marks of the futures market, which change several times a year.

Monthly CZ - monthly control zone. The zone, which is a reflection of the average volatility over the past year.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Control zones EURUSD 11/08/19

The pair is trading within the average weekly move today, which makes it possible to consolidate sales. Part of the deal can be left in case of continued downward movement. The main medium-term goal is still the weekly control zone 1.1020-1.1004. If today the pair goes beyond the middle course zone, then the probability of an upward corrective movement will increase to 90%.

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Today there will be an expiration of option contracts on currency futures, which can increase daily volatility. For this reason, it is better to transfer positions to breakeven during the US session.

The downward movement is a priority, therefore, any growth up to the WCZ 1/2 1.1124-1.1116 must be used to search for a pattern to sell the instrument. Next week, the probability of updating the monthly low will rise again to 75%.

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Daily CZ - daily control zone. The area formed by important data from the futures market, which change several times a year.

Weekly CZ - weekly control zone. The zone formed by important marks of the futures market, which change several times a year.

Monthly CZ - monthly control zone. The zone, which is a reflection of the average volatility over the past year.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis: Important Intraday Levels For EUR/USD, November 08, 2019

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When the European market opens, some economic reports will be released such as French Trade Balance, French Prelim Private Payrolls q/q, French Industrial Production m/m, and German Trade Balance. The US will also publish the economic data such as Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations, Final Wholesale Inventories m/m, and Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment, so amid the reports, the EUR/USD pair will move with low to medium volatility during this day. TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVELS: Breakout BUY Level: 1.1102. Strong Resistance: 1.1096. Original Resistance: 1.1085. Inner Sell Area: 1.1074. Target Inner Area: 1.1048. Inner Buy Area: 1.1022. Original Support: 1.1011. Strong Support: 1.1000. Breakout SELL Level: 1.0994. (Disclaimer)The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis: Important Intraday Levels for USD/JPY, November 08, 2019

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In Asia, Japan will release the Leading Indicators, Household Spending y/y, and Average Cash Earnings y/y. The US will also publish some economic data such as Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations, Final Wholesale Inventories m/m, and Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment. So there is a probability the USD/JPY pair will move with low to medium volatility during this day. TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVELS: Resistance. 3: 109.77. Resistance. 2: 109.57. Resistance. 1: 109.35. Support. 1: 109.08. Support. 2: 108.87. Support. 3: 108.65. (Disclaimer)The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Control zones AUDUSD 11/08/19

The pair is trading within the medium-term accumulation zone. Today's test of the Weekly Control Zone 1/2 0.6871-0.6865 made it possible to obtain favorable prices for the purchase of an instrument. The first goal for fixing purchases is the weekly control zone 0.6936-0.6924. Now, further growth will depend on the reaction of the price to the control zone. To continue the growth, it will be necessary to close the current week above it.

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Work within the framework of the flat indicates the search for a reversal model and the sale of the instrument at the upper boundary, which coincides with the weekly control zone.

An alternative flat continuation model will be formed if the weekly control zone will lead to an increase in supply and the formation of a reversal pattern. In this case, sales will come to the fore, and the first target of the decline will be Weekly Control Zone 1/2 0.6871-0.6865, in case that the maximum of the month is not updated.

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Daily CZ - daily control zone. The zone formed by important data from the futures market that changes several times a year.

Weekly CZ - weekly control zone. The zone formed by the important marks of the futures market, which change several times a year.

Monthly CZ - monthly control zone. The zone that reflects the average volatility over the past year.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Forecast for EUR/USD on November 8, 2019

EUR/USD

On Thursday, the main news of the market was a statement by the Chinese authorities about the upcoming agreement with the United States of the "first stage" on the mutual abolition of prohibitions. Representatives of China announced the possible signing of the agreement within two weeks. The American side, however, has not yet confirmed or clarified either the schedule of negotiations or the scope of agreements. The euro lost 15 points at the end of the day. We have repeatedly expressed the idea that, regardless of the success of the US-Chinese negotiations, the dollar will mainly strengthen in its direction, in only one case it will grow as investors move away from risk, and in the other case on expectations of a stronger US economy.

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The price slightly fell yesterday to support the MACD line on the daily chart, accordingly, the 1.1025 target is postponed to today. Consolidation below the line opens the target at the Fibonacci level of 138.2% at the price of 1.0985. The Marlin oscillator in the zone of negative numbers.

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A slight convergence formed on the four-hour chart for Marlin. A potential correction may develop if positive economic indicators across Europe emerge. Germany's trade balance for September is projected to grow from 18.1 billion to 19.3 billion euros, France's trade balance could improve from -5.02 billion euros to -4.90 billion. The correction may stop with the release of the consumer confidence index in the US in the assessment University of Michigan - November rate is expected to rise from 95.5 to 96.0.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Forecast for GBP/USD on November 8, 2019

GBP/USD

The British pound lost 34 points yesterday on the news that two members of the Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee voted to lower the rate. The head of the BoE, Mark Carney, hastened to assure the investment community that the regulator would not change policy until there was so much uncertainty in the world, the rate could be lowered in the future for three years, and the central bank's economic forecasts, although weak, were all due to Boris Johnson's Brexit scenario. The BoE lowered next year's GDP from 1.3% to 1.2%. And even in the event of a "hard" Brexit, the regulator will not rush to adjust, preferring to wait for the reaction of the economy.

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The pair quotes went below the signal level of 1.2840, the signal line of the Marlin oscillator, as we expected, at the same moment has crossed the boundary of the bear territory. Target levels can be taken sequentially: 1.2748 (October 17 low), 1.2703 (October 11 high), 1.2650 (October 14 high).

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On the four-hour chart, a decrease in the price is expected for all indicators, there are no signs of a reversal or deep correction.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Forecast for AUD/USD on November 8, 2019

AUD/USD

Over the past two days, the technical picture of the Australian dollar has strengthened the reversal conditions to fall to the nearest target at 0.6810 - to the level where the MACD line of the daily scale can meet, the price and lows on October 24-28. First of all, this gain is expressed by the output of the signal line of the Marlin oscillator from its own upward channel (azure). Marlin divergence has been strengthened. Also, the price, having tested the price channel line yesterday (probably for the last time), turned down from it.

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On the four-hour chart, the price of growth was kept by the MACD line, there was a downward reversal. Synchronously with it, the signal line of the Marlin oscillator turned around from the boundary with the growth territory. We are waiting for the aussie at the target level of 0.6810.

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The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Control zones USDJPY 11/08/19

On November 7, the pair tested the Weekly Control Zone 1/4 108.75-108.70, which allowed them to enter the purchase. The target for growth is the weekly control zone 110.15-109.94. Reaching this zone will allow you to close most of the purchases, and transfer the balance to breakeven. Thus, it is important to understand that the middle course zone, which is above the level of 109.52, will become an obstacle this week, so the implementation of the priority model may happen next week.

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With the test level of 109.52, it is possible to partially fix the position, because on Friday, there will be an expiration of option contracts, which can increase the volatility in the market. This will form a corrective downward pattern.

This correction may become protracted and will provide an opportunity to get favorable prices for repeated purchases. It is important to understand that the probability of continued growth is above 70%. This makes purchases profitable, but purchases require a reduction in price and moving it away from the average weekly move.

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Daily CZ - daily control zone. The zone formed by important data from the futures market that changes several times a year.

Weekly CZ - weekly control zone. The zone formed by the important marks of the futures market, which change several times a year.

Monthly CZ - monthly control zone. The zone that reflects the average volatility over the past year.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

#USDX vs EUR / USD vs GBP / USD vs USD / JPY (H4). Comprehensive analysis of movement options from November 08, 2019 APLs

Let me bring to your attention a comprehensive analysis of movement options (h4 timeframe) of currency instruments - #USDX, EUR / USD, GBP / USD and USD / JPY from November 08, 2019

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US dollar index

Starting from November 08, 2019, the development of the #USDX dollar index movement will be determined by the development and direction of the breakdown of the equilibrium zones (97.90 - 97.78 - 97.68) of the Minuette operational scale. Look at the chart for details.

The breakdown of the resistance level of 97.90 at the upper boundary of ISL61.8 of the equilibrium zone of the Minuette operational scale forks will determine the continuation of the development of the upward movement dollar index to targets - 1/2 Median Line Minuette (98.05) - the upper boundary of the 1/2 Median Line Minuette channel (98.30) with the prospect of reaching the boundaries of the equilibrium zone (98.35 - 98.70 - 99.08) of the Minuette operational scale forks

On the contrary, the breakdown of the support level of 97.68 at the lower boundary of the ISL38.2 of the Minuette operational scale forks will direct the movement #USDX to the boundaries of the 1/2 Median Line Minuette channel (97.62 - 97.52 - 97.42) with the prospect of reaching the initial SSL Minuette line (97.32).

The details of the #USDX movement are presented in the animated chart.

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Euro vs US dollar

The development of the movement of the single European currency EUR / USD from November 08, 2019 will be determined by the development and direction of the breakdown of the boundaries 1/2 Median Line channel (1.1117 - 1.1085 - 1.1054) of the Minuette operational scale forks. The details of this movement are shown on chart.

The breakdown of the support level of 1.1054 will make it possible to develop the downward movement of EUR / USD which can be continued to the boundaries of the equilibrium zone (1.0985 - 1.0940 - 1.0895 ) of the Minuette operational scale forks.

In case of breakdown of the upper boundary of the 1/2 Median Line channel (resistance level of 1.1117) of the Minuette operational scale forks, the development of the EUR / USD movement will continue in the equilibrium zone (1.1110 - 1.1130 - 1.1145) of the Minuette operational scale forks, while in case of breakdown ISL61.8 Minuette (1.1145) the upward movement of this instrument will be directed to the maximum`s (1.1175 - 1.1180).

The details of the EUR / USD movement options are shown on the chart.

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Great Britain pound vs US dollar

From November 8, 2019, the development of Her Majesty's GBP / USD currency movement will depend on the development and direction of the breakdown of the 1/2 Median Line (1.2870 - 1.2845 - 1.2820) of the Minuette operational scale forks. The movement details inside 1/2 ML channel are presented in the chart.

In case of breakdown of the lower boundary of the 1/2 Median Line Minuette channel (support level of 1.2820) the downward movement of GBP / USD can continue to the boundaries of the equilibrium zones of the Minuette operational scale forks (1.2730 - 1.2690 - 1.2650) and Minuette (1.2720 - 1.2630 - 1.2535).

Combined breakdown of resistance levels :

- 1.2870 (the upper boundary of the 1/2 Median Line channel of the Minuette operational scale forks);

- 1.2890 (lower boundary of the 1/2 Median Line Minuette channel);

will make the development of Her Majesty's currency movement relevant within the boundaries of the 1/2 Median Line channel (1.2890 -1.2975 - 1.3065) of the Minuette operational scale forks.

The details of the GBP / USD movement can be seen at the chart..

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US dollar vs Japanese yen

Further development of the USD / JPY currency movement of the "country of the rising sun" from November 08, 2019 will be determined by the direction of the breakdown of the range :

- resistance level of 109.25 (control line UTL of the Minuette operational scale forks);

- support level of 109.10 (the initial line of SSL forks of the Minuette operational scale forks).

The breakdown of the UTL control line (resistance level of 109.25) of the Minuette operational scale forks, followed by updating the maximum 109.30 and breakdown of the UTL Minuette control line (109.45) will determine the continuation of the development of the upward movement of USD / JPY to the warning lines - UWL38.2 (109.75) - UWL61.8 (110.75) of the Minuette operational scale forks.

In case of breakdown of the SSL start line (support level of 109.10) of the Minuette operational scale forks, the development of the USD / JPY movement will be directed to the SSL start line (108.70) of the Minuette operational scale forks and the boundaries of the 1/2 Median Line Minuette channel (108.60 - 108.35 - 108.05) with the prospect of reaching the upper boundary of ISL38.2 (107.85) equilibrium zone of the Minuette operational scale forks.

We look at the details of the USD / JPY movement on the chart.

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The review is made without taking into account the news background. Thus, the opening of trading sessions of the main financial centers does not serve as a guide to action (placing orders "sell" or "buy").

The formula for calculating the dollar index :

USDX = 50.14348112 * USDEUR0.576 * USDJPY0.136 * USDGBP0.119 * USDCAD0.091 * USDSEK0.042 * USDCHF0.036.

where the power coefficients correspond to the weights of the currencies in the basket:

Euro - 57.6% ;

Yen - 13.6% ;

Pound Sterling - 11.9% ;

Canadian dollar - 9.1%;

Swedish krona - 4.2%;

Swiss franc - 3.6%.

The first coefficient in the formula leads the index to 100 at the start date of the countdown - March 1973, when the main currencies began to be freely quoted relative to each other.

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EUR/USD approaching resistance, potential for big drop!

Price is approaching our first resistance at 1.10654 where we are expecting a drop to our first support level at 1.09994

Entry: 1.10654

Previous breakout level, 23.6% Fibonacci retracement

Take Profit : 1.09994

Why it's good : 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, 78.6% Fibonacci extension, horizontal pullback support

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USD/CAD Bullish breakout of channel!!

USDCAD broke out of channel to the upside. Bullish above support at 1.31441

Entry: 1.31658

38.2% Fibonacci retracement, channel pullback support

Take Profit : 1.32395

Why it's good : 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, 100% Fibonacci extension

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USD/CHF to reach 1st resistance at 0.9971, potential to drop!

Entry: 0.9970

Why it's good: Horizontal swing high resistance

Take Profit : 0.9907

Why it's good : horizontal overlap support

50% Fibonacci retracement

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Fractal analysis of the main currency pairs for November 8

Forecast for November 8:

Analytical review of currency pairs on the scale of H1:

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For the euro / dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.1108, 1.1080, 1.1064, 1.1045, 1.1034, 1.1008 and 1.0990. Here, we are following the development of the downward cycle of November 4. The continuation of the movement to the bottom is expected after the price passes the noise range 1.1045 - 1.1034. In this case, the target is 1.1008. For the potential value for the bottom, we consider the level of 1.0990. Upon reaching this value, we will consider the downward structure of November 4 as a medium-term.

Short-term upward movement is expected in the range 1.1064 - 1.1080. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the target is 1.1108. This level is a key support for the downward structure.

The main trend is the downward structure of November 4.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.1065 Take profit: 1.1080

Buy: 1.1082 Take profit: 1.1106

Sell: 1.1032 Take profit: 1.1010

Sell: 1.1008 Take profit: 1.0990

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For the pound / dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.2899, 1.2865, 1.2840, 1.2802, 1.2778, 1.2742, 1.2722 and 1.2676. Here, we are following the downward cycle of November 1. Short-term downward movement is expected in the range 1.2802 - 1.2778. The breakdown of the last value should be accompanied by a pronounced downward movement. Here, the target is 1.2742. Price consolidation is in the range of 1.2742 - 1.2722 . For the potential value for the bottom, we consider the level of 1.2676. The movement to this level is expected after the breakdown of the level of 1.2722.

Short-term upward movement is expected in the range of 1.2840 - 1.2865. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the target is 1.2899. This level is a key support for the downward structure.

The main trend is the downward structure of November 1.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.2840 Take profit: 1.2865

Buy: 1.2867 Take profit: 1.2897

Sell: 1.2802 Take profit: 1.2780

Sell: 1.2776 Take profit: 1.2743

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For the dollar / franc pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.0025, 1.0001, 0.9968, 0.9933, 0.9919, 0.9900 and 0.9890. Here, we are following the medium-term ascending structure of November 1. The continuation of the movement to the top is expected after the breakdown of the level of 0.9940. In this case, the target is 0.9968. Price consolidation is near this level. The breakdown of the level of 0.9968 will lead to a pronounced movement. Here, the target is 1.0001. We consider the level of 1.0025 to be a potential value for the top. Upon reaching this level, we expect a pullback to the bottom.

Short-term downward movement is possibly in the range 0.9933 - 0.9919. The breakdown of the last value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the target is 0.9900. The range 0.9900 - 0.9890 is the key support.

The main trend is the medium-term upward structure from November 1.

Trading recommendations:

Buy : 0.9970 Take profit: 1.0000

Buy : 1.0002 Take profit: 1.0025

Sell: 0.9933 Take profit: 0.9920

Sell: 0.9917 Take profit: 0.9900

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For the dollar / yen pair, the key levels on the scale are : 110.12, 109.79, 109.54, 109.17, 109.03, 108.84 and 108.62. Here, we determined the next goals from the local ascending structure on November 7. The continuation of the movement to the top is expected after the breakdown of the level of 109.54. In this case, the target is 109.79. Price consolidation is near this level. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level of 110.12.

Short-term downward movement is expected in the range of 109.17 - 109.03. The breakdown of the last value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the target is 108.84. This level is a key support for the local upward structure. Its breakdown will lead to a movement to the first potential target - 108.62.

The main trend: the upward cycle of November 1, the local structure of November 7.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 109.55 Take profit: 109.77

Buy : 109.80 Take profit: 110.10

Sell: 109.03 Take profit: 108.85

Sell: 108.82 Take profit: 108.62

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For the Canadian dollar / US dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.3268, 1.3246, 1.3208, 1.3185, 1.3143, 1.3124 and 1.3101. Here, we are following the medium-term upward structure from October 29, as well as the local structure for the top from November 5. Short-term movement to the top is expected in the range of 1.3185 - 1.3208. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to a pronounced movement. Here, the target is 1.3246. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level of 1.3268. Upon reaching this level, we expect a pullback to the bottom.

Short-term downward movement is possibly in the range of 1.3143 - 1.3124. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the target is 1.3101. This level is a key support for the upward structure.

The main trend is the medium-term initial conditions for the upward movement of November 29.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.3185 Take profit: 1.3206

Buy : 1.3209 Take profit: 1.3246

Sell: 1.3143 Take profit: 1.3126

Sell: 1.3122 Take profit: 1.3101

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For the Australian dollar / US dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are : 0.6981, 0.6962, 0.6950, 0.6928, 0.6911, 0.6885, 0.6872, 0.6853, 0.6841 and 0.6825. Here, the price is in equilibrium: the downward structure from November 5, as well as the upward potential from November 7. The development of the ascending structure is expected after the breakdown of the level of 0.6911. Here, the target is 0.6928. Price consolidation is near this level. The breakdown of the level of 0.6928 should be accompanied by a pronounced upward movement. In this case, the target is 0.6950. Price consolidation is in the range of 0.6950 - 0.6962. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level of 0.6981. Upon reaching this value, we expect a pullback to the bottom

Short-term downward movement is possibly in the range of 0.6885 - 0.6872. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to the development of a downward trend. Here, the target is 0.6853. Price consolidation is in the range of 0.6853 - 0.6841. For the potential value for the bottom, we consider the level of 0.6825.

The main trend is the equilibrium situation.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 0.6911 Take profit: 0.6926

Buy: 0.6930 Take profit: 0.6950

Sell : 0.6885 Take profit : 0.6873

Sell: 0.6870 Take profit: 0.6855

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For the euro / yen pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 122.09, 121.85, 121.46, 121.17, 120.60, 120.37, 119.83, 119.55 and 119.38. Here, the price registered the potential for the top of November 7. The development of this structure is expected after the breakdown of the level of 121.17. In this case, the target is 121.46. Price consolidation is near this level. The breakdown of the level of 121.47 will lead to a pronounced movement. Here, the goal is 121.85. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level of 122.09.

Short-term downward movement is expected in the range of 120.60 - 120.37. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to the subsequent development of the downward structure of October 30. Here, the goal is 119.83. For the potential value for the bottom, we consider the level of 119.38, and near which, we expect a consolidated movement.

The main trend is the downward potential of October 30, the potential for the top of November 7.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 121.17 Take profit: 121.44

Buy: 121.47 Take profit: 121.85

Sell: 120.60 Take profit: 120.40

Sell: 120.35 Take profit: 119.85

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For the pound / yen pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are : 142.82, 141.23, 139.53, 138.70, 137.79 and 137.08. Here, the price is still in the equilibrium. The continuation of movement to the top is expected after the breakdown of the level of 141.23. In this case, the potential target is 142.82. Upon reaching which, we expect consolidation, as well as a pullback to the bottom.

Short-term downward movement, as well as consolidation, are possible in the range of 139.53 - 138.70. The breakdown of the last value will lead to a long correction. Here, the target is 137.79. The range of 137.79 - 137.08 is the key support for the top.

The main trend is the medium-term upward structure from October 8, the formation of potential for the downward movement from October 21.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: Take profit:

Buy: 141.25 Take profit: 142.80

Sell: 139.50 Take profit: 138.75

Sell: 138.65 Take profit: 137.80

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The dollar has faced difficulties

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The US currency once again found itself in the grip of conflicting factors. The greenback is under pressure from both the easing of the Fed's monetary policy and geopolitical problems. However, the market is not discouraged and still believes in the dollar, since the global currency has long established itself as resistant to any difficulties.

Opposition to negative factors on the part of the dollar began with the moment of a radical change in the strategy of the Federal Reserve. Previously, the regulator raised the interest rate, maintaining equilibrium in the US economy. Last year, after the strongest 20% correction in the country's stock market, which lasted from October to December 2018, the Fed policy changed 180 degrees.

Earlier, before the correction, the Fed adhered to the policy of raising the key rate, but under the pressure of negative factors was forced to reconsider its views. Large-scale correction in the US stock market was the strongest driver of this change. The caustic comments of US President Donald Trump, who criticized the Fed for its inability to quickly cut rates and provide additional liquidity to the country's financial system, added fuel to the fire. The regulator surrendered under the pressure of these circumstances, starting the process of easing monetary policy.

Active reduction in interest rates was not in vain for the US currency. The dollar began to sag, losing stability and gaining ground. Its traditional status as a safe haven currency has also been called into question. The situation improved in the future, but anxiety remained. Analysts were concerned about the fact that the greenback has increased by 0.7% against a basket of leading world currencies since the beginning of this week. What is the faith of investors in the dollar based on? Mainly on the expectation of a positive outcome of trade negotiations between Washington and Beijing, as well as on the traditional ability of the greenback to rise from the ashes. According to experts, the greenback's current rise was significantly affected by strong macroeconomic data from the United States. Many analysts believe that this margin of safety is enough for some time to adjust the Fed's immediate plans and let it not chase the cuts in rates. However, a small percentage of analysts still bet on another decline in December 2019.

The staggering dollar was supported not only by positive statistics on the US economy, but also by a decrease in appetite for risky assets. The greenback was extended by investors who continue to invest in the US economy amid long-term geopolitical risks. On Wednesday, November 6, the greenback strengthened against major world currencies, including the euro, which is balancing on the verge of falling for the third consecutive day. On Thursday morning, November 7, the EUR/USD pair pushed near the levels of 1.1061–1.1062, making timid attempts to rise.

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After a while, the pair slid to the level of 1.1059. The market flinched, carefully following the dynamics of the pair. There was still hope for growth.

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Further attempts at recovery were successful. The EUR/USD pair leveled off, showing an upward trend. The pair reached the 1.1072–1.1073 bar, but did not stop there.

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Having made a spectacular reversal, the EUR/USD pair soared to 1.1082–1.1083. At the moment, the pair is trying to conquer the next peaks.

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Analysts draw attention to a number of technical factors contributing to the dollar's potential growth. Its weakening, recorded last month, sent the greenback to the lower boundary of the upward trend. Yesterday, the greenback stormed the long-term line of this trend at the price level with which the process of lowering rates began. If the current trend changes, the driver of which may be a positive outcome of trade negotiations between the US and China, the situation will not be in favor of the greenback. The implementation of such a scenario will give odds to the European currency, analysts are certain. It will strengthen, pushing the dollar and, perhaps, try to push it off the pedestal.

The potential advantage of the euro revived the market, providing food for thought and analytical calculations. Most analysts agree that now is the right time to sell the dollar and buy the euro. Specialists at Morgan Stanley, the largest bank, are confident that economic growth in the United States has exhausted itself, which cannot but affect the greenback dynamics. These changes will be with a negative sign, experts said. They emphasize that the current differential in interest rates in the United States and the level of profitability do not play in favor of the dollar. Many analysts are confident that in the next two years, the dynamics of the US currency may change so much that the greenback will lose its status as a safe haven currency.

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GBP/USD: the pound is included in the election race

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GBP/USD continues to trade between the local support levels of 1.2800 and resistance of 1.3000.

The data on business activity in the UK manufacturing sector released last Friday pleasantly surprised investors. The indicator rose to a six-month high - 49.6 in October against 48.3 recorded in September.

Another important indicator of the state of the British economy was released at the beginning of this week - the PMI for the UK services sector, which rose to 50.0 in October from 49.5 in September.

Despite the growth of indicators, economists believe that the continuing uncertainty around Brexit will restrain activity in British business.

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A regular meeting of the Bank of England took place today, as a result of which it left the interest rate at the same level - 0.75%. At the same time, there were surprises. Two members of the Monetary Policy Committee - Michael Saunders and Jonathan Haskel - unexpectedly voted to cut the rate by a quarter point, citing risks for the forecast and signs of a reversal in the labor market. These are the first voices in favor of easing monetary policy since 2016.

Against this background, the pound depreciated against the US dollar by 0.25% to $1.2805, reaching the lowest level in almost two weeks.

The UK received a deferral of Brexit until January 31, 2020. The Bank of England is expected to abstain from active actions until the end of this period.

In anticipation of the early parliamentary elections scheduled for December 12, the results of public opinion polls for the pound could be much more important than monetary policy or economic data.

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The election campaign officially started in the country the day before.

According to a consensus forecast by analysts recently surveyed by Reuters, the victory of the Conservative Party will lead to a "divorce" agreement between London and Brussels, resulting in a GBP/USD pair growth by 3%, while Labour will cause the pair to fall by 2%.

According to various estimates, the advantage of Conservatives over Labour is now from 12 to 17%. However, as analysts warn, this may not be enough for Boris Johnson to guarantee his party more than half of the 650 seats in the House of Commons. According to them, amid the dissatisfaction of voters with the actions of the leadership of the Conservative Party and the absence of a clear program for the Labour Party, the outcome of the upcoming elections and the fate of Brexit will also depend on how widely the British support the parties supporting the preservation of EU membership.

The current correction of GBP/USD in the context of the political landscape of Great Britain, which remains unsteady, seems quite logical.

It should be noted that November is far from the best month for the pound. According to its results, in 1975-2018, the British currency against the US dollar depreciated in 28 cases out of 44.

It is assumed that the lower the pair starts to fall, the more there will be those who want to buy it cheaper.

The odds of a disordered Brexit have fallen to nearly zero. Based on the fact that according to the results of the early elections, the UK will leave the EU on the basis of an agreement or even remain part of the EU, it makes sense to form longs for GBP/USD to reduce support quotes by 1.2725–1.275 and 1.259–1.261 .

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GBPUSD. Bank of England dissidents, predictions and phlegmatic pound

The results of "Super Thursday" were expectedly not in favor of the British currency, although the first violin in the downward pressure on the pound was played not by the head of the Bank of England Mark Carney, but by two members of the English regulator who unexpectedly called for easing monetary policy. Traders were clearly discouraged by this fact, since the prospects of monetary policy have recently been discussed in a slightly different aspect. Experts discussed - will the BoE raise the rate in the first half of next year or will it still take a wait-and-see attitude? Now this discussion has been supplemented with one more question - will the English regulator resort to a preventive reduction in the rate?

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The culprits of the bearish triumph were two members of the Committee - Michael Saunders and Jonathan Haskel. It is worth noting that Saunders is not the first to vote "against the grain", that is, contrary to the general opinion of most colleagues. A little over a year ago, he, along with Ian McCafferty, voted to raise the rate, while the remaining seven members of the Committee voted to maintain the status quo. This went on for three meetings, but then Saunders again joined the majority, voting in a general rhythm.

Now there is a mirror situation. Saunders and Haskel voted to reduce interest rates, violating the expected balance of power (0-2-7 instead of the predicted 0-0-9). For the first time in three years (that is, since August 2016), members of the Committee, albeit not in the majority, voted in favor of easing monetary policy. Moreover, Saunders and Haskell said that the regulator needs to introduce additional incentives as soon as possible, since recent releases indicate a weakening of the British labor market amid increasing risks from the global trade conflict.

The BoE did not support the peculiar "dissidents" in its conclusions, but also did not exclude the realization of such a scenario in the future. The rhetoric of the accompanying statement left a double impression. On the one hand, the English regulator made it clear that if global economic growth does not stabilize, Brexit uncertainty will continue, and key economic indicators will continue downward trend, then the central bank may have to intervene. But then the regulator hastened to declare the likelihood of an alternative scenario. If these risks do not materialize, then the issue of a gradual increase in the rate will again be on the agenda.

In other words, the prospects for monetary policy in the UK again depend on external factors. The Bank of England made it clear that it is ready to tighten monetary policy, but in the conditions of a "soft" Brexit and at least a conditional trade truce between the US and China. And of course, given the growth of key macroeconomic indicators in Britain, especially in the labor market and inflation.

Unfortunately for the GBP/USD bulls, the English regulator lowered its forecasts for the main economic indicators. So, GDP growth for the next year was reduced from 1.3% to the lowest level over the past ten years, 1.2%, and in 2021 - from 2.3% immediately to 1.8%. The BoE also lowered its inflation forecast - according to regulator members, its growth will slow by 1.2% by mid-2020, due to lower prices for black gold and regulatory restrictions on electricity and water tariffs.

Summing up the November meeting, Mark Carney confirmed that the central bank's next likely move would be a reduction in interest rates, as the Bank of England's updated economic forecasts were revised negatively. He also expressed concern that weak investment is detrimental to industrial production, thereby limiting the growth of the British economy and slowing inflation.

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Nevertheless, it cannot be said that Carney announced a rate cut in the near future. He just did not rule out a similar scenario, linking it primarily with a possible "hard" Brexit and a general slowdown in the global economy. He voiced such rhetoric more than once, just in this case, Carney's position was reinforced by updated forecasts of the central bank of a negative nature. The two members of the Committee who voted in favor of lowering the rate only added fuel to the fire, putting additional pressure on the pound.

Thus, the November meeting of the Bank of England was by no means "passing". But despite the dovish tone of the regulator, the downward impulse of the GBP/USD pair was limited. Bears could not even gain a foothold in the 27th figure, and the price actually returned to its previous positions during the US session on Thursday. Apparently, traders are still tuned for a Conservative victory in December, and, accordingly, for the soft Brexit, with all the ensuing consequences.

Given this market reaction, it can be assumed that the GBP/USD pair will continue to trade flat, reacting violently only to political news. The pound turned out to be stress-resistant to dovish threats from the Bank of England, so the further dynamics of the pair will be determined only by the political prospects of the "divorce proceedings" between London and Brussels.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com