Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for GBP/USD for December 9, 2015

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A few months ago, the market was pushed above the weekly key zone around 1.5550 in an attempt to reach the area of 1.5900, which has been providing the GBP/USD pair with significant resistance.

Recent weekly candlesticks came as bearish engulfing candles, closing below the level of 1.5220 (the neckline of the Head and Shoulders pattern). This supported the bearish side of the market in the long term.

A long-term bearish target is projected towards the level of 1.4800 for this reversal pattern.

The previous demand level at 1.5200 (the origin of a previous bullish engulfing weekly candlestick) was broken down a month ago. This bearish tendency was confirmed by the Shooting Star and the bearish engulfing weekly candlesticks of the previous weeks.

Hence, a quick bearish decline towards the weekly demand level at 1.4950 was expected as a result of the bearish breakdown below 1.5200.

Note that another weekly closure below 1.4950 is needed to clear the way towards 1.4800 (long-term bearish target). Otherwise, another bullish pullback towards 1.5350 shouldn't be excluded.

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Prominent demand levels at 1.5350 and 1.5200 were broken down a few weeks ago. These levels currently constitute prominent supply levels to be watched for new sell entries.

Recently, the key level of 1.5200 was temporarily breached to the upside before a daily bearish engulfing candlestick was expressed around 1.5330 on November 20.

Bearish persistence below 1.5200 then 1.5050 (previous weekly bottom) enhanced further bearish decline towards the weekly demand level at 1.4950 (also correspondsto the lower limit of the depicted channel).

A bullish engulfing daily candlestick was expressed around 1.4950 on Thursday.

That is why, a bullish pullback towards 1.5200-1.5230 and probably 1.5350 should be expected as long as the GBP/USD bulls keep moving above 1.4950-1.5000.

Trading Recommendation:

A valid buy entry was suggested around the weekly demand zone of 1.4950-1.4930. S/L should be elevated to 1.5000. T/P levels should be located at 1.5000, 1.5170 and 1.5300.

On the other hand, a valid SELL entry can be offered anywhere around the supply level of 1.5300. S/L should be placed above 1.5350.

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EUR/NZD : analysis for December 09, 2015

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Overview:

Recently, EUR/NZD has been moving upwards. As I had expected, the price tested the level of 1.6571 in a high volume. According to the H1 time frame, we can observe strong resistance cluster at the level of 1.6570 (currently on the test). I placed Fibonacci expansion to find potential profit targets. First profit target has been reached at 1.6480 (Fibonacci expansion 61.8%) and second is at 1.6745 (Fibonacci expansion 100%.) is still in the play. Watch for RBNZ decision today and then act according to price action. Watch for potential buying opportunities on dips.The short-term trend has changed from downward to upward.

Fibonacci Pivot Points :

Resistance levels:

R1: 1.6445

R2: 1.6490

R3: 1.6550

Support levels:

S1: 1.6315

S2: 1.6275

S3: 1.6210

Trading recommendations : Buying EUR/NZD at this stage looks very risky since the price testing major resistance cluster. Watch for potential buying opportunities after potential breakout of our resistance.

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Gold : analysis for December 09 , 2015

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Overview:

Since our last analysis, gold has been trading upwards. As I had expected, the price tested the level of $1,083.54 in a high volume. Considerable progress was made since my original bullish trading idea. In the daily time frame, our SMA 10 was broken and this is the first sign of a potential change in the trend's dynamic. According to the H1 time frame, the price was rejected at the key support level of $1,069.00. I expect it to test the level of $1,088.50. I had placed Fibonacci expansion to find potential profit targets. I got Fibonacci expansion 61.8% at the level of $1,092.50, Fibonacci expansion 100% at the level of $1,108.00 and Fibonacci expansion 161.8% at the level of $1,134.50.

Daily Fibonacci pivot points:

Resistance levels

R1: 1,077.86

R2: 1,080.50

R3: 1,083.30

Support levels:

S1: 1,071.15

S2: 1,069.00

S3: 1,065.70

Trading recommendations: Be careful when selling gold because we can observe strong demand in the background. Watch for potential buying opportunities on dips.

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Technical analysis of NZD/CAD for December 9, 2015

NZD/CAD has been steadily rising since November 18 and there are no signs of a trend reversal at this point yet.

The price clearly broke above the previous resistance at 0.8950 which has become the support that has been rejected. Overall, the price is moving within the ascending channel and could go slightly down to test the lower trend line of the channel. However, the uptrend is still intact and the probability of further uptrend remains quite high.

Consider buying NZD/CAD if the price gets back to support area near 0.8950 to target potential tipple top at 0.9045 and possibly higher. On the other hand, a break below the support could result in a trend reversal and conservative trading is preferable.

Support: 0.8955

Resistance: 0.9045

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for December 09, 2015

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USD/JPY is expected to trade with bearish bias. Overnight, US stock indices extended losses, weighed down by declining metal and mining shares. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped another 0.9% to 17,568, the S&P 500 fell 0.7% to 2,063, and the Nasdaq Composite was down 0.1% to 5,098. Nymex crude oil slid a further 0.4% to $37.51 a barrel, gold gained 0.4% to $1,074 an ounce, and the benchmark 10-year Treasury edged down to 2.227% from 2.236% in the previous session.

Meanwhile, the greenback showed mixed trading yesterday. USD/CAD gained 0.7% to 1.3583, AUD/USD dropped 0.7% to 0.7214, GBP/USD fell 0.3% to 1.5006, while EUR/USD rebounded 0.5% to 1.0893 and USD/JPY was down 0.5% to 122.90. The pair is trading on the downside below both the 20-period (30-minute chart) and 50-period intraday moving averages. And the relative strength index badly directed below the neutrality level at 50. As long as such a bearish intraday outlook persists, the pair should return to the first downside target at 122.50 (around yesterday's low) before falling further to 122.25 (the low of December 4).

Trading recommendations:

The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as long as it remains below the pivot point. Short positions are recommended with the first target at 122.50. A break of that target will move the pair further downwards to 122.25. The pivot point stands at 123.20. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, it will move above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. According to that scenario, long positions are recommended with the first target at 123.50 and the second target at 123.75.

Resistance levels: 123.50 123.75 124

Support levels: 122.50 122.25 121.85

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for December 09, 2015

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USD/CHF is expected to trade with bearish bias. The pair has reversed down while being capped by the descending 20-period and 50-period moving averages. The key resistance at 0.9985 still holds on the upside. Besides, the relative strength index is weak below its neutrality area at 50. In conclusion, as long as 0.9985 is not surpassed, a new pullback seems to be on the cards to at least 0.9870 (the low of December 3). In case of a breakout, look for a further decline to 0.9830.

Trading recommendations:

The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as long as it remains below the pivot point. Short positions are recommended with the first target at 0.9870. A break of that target will move the pair further downwards to 0.9830. The pivot point stands at 0.9950. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, it will move above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. According to that scenario, long positions are recommended with the first target at 0.9985 and the second target at 1.0035.

Resistance levels: 0.9985 1.0035 1.0075

Support levels: 0.9870 0.9830 0.9790

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Technical analysis of EUR/GBP for December 9, 2015

EUR/GBP has been ranging between the 0.7000 and 0.7500 areas since March 2015. There is still no clear direction where the price could be heading in the long term. And this sort of scenario is very appropriate for the "buy low, sell high" approach.

The price broke below the 61.8% Fibonacci applied to the low of July 17 and the high of October 13, which indicates the weakness of the euro against the British pound. Currently, the price retraced back to the 38.2% Fibonacci that has been rejected together with the descending channel suggesting that bears could start taking over.

Consider selling EUR/GBP on the H4 close below the 0.7245 level which previously acted as a support and resistance multiple times. If the price goes down, it is most likely to form a double bottom near the low of 0.7000 hit on July 17. It could be used as a target. Stop loss should be well above 23.6% Fibs.

Support: 0.7210, 0.7145, 0.7060, 0.6930

Resistance: 0.7280, 0.7360

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for December 09, 2015

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NZD/USD is expected to trade in a lower range as the key resistance is at 0.6665. The pair is trading sideways within a range between 0.6665 and 0.6605. Nevertheless, the relative strength index lacks upward momentum. Furthermore, the upward potential is likely to be limited by the resistance at 0.6665. In these perspectives, as long as 0.6665 is not surpassed, look for a new pullback to 0.6565 and 0.6540 in extension.

Trading recommendations:

The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as long as it remains below the pivot point. Short positions are recommended with the first target at 0.6565. A break of that target will move the pair further downwards to 0.6540. The pivot point stands at 0.6665. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, it will move above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. According to that scenario, long positions are recommended with the first target at 0.6685 and the second target at 0.6730.

Resistance levels: 0.6685 0.6730 0.6770

Support levels: 0.6565 0.6540 0.6515

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for December 9, 2015

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Overview:

    • The NZD/USD pair will continue with its rise straight from the level of 0.6578 (23.6% of Fibonacci retracement levels on the H1 chart). Moreover, it is probably going to form a double bottom at the same price of 0.6578. Therefore, the NZD/USD pair is showing signs of strength following the break of the highest level of 0.6578, so it will be a good sign to buy above the level of 38.2% of Fibonacci with the first target of 0.6649 and further to 0.6682 (it will act as a strong resistance, so it will be a good place to put take profit). This level of taking profit will coincide with 61.8% of Fibonacci retracement level. However, in case a reversal takes place and the NZD/USD pair breaks through the support level of 0.6578, the market will decline further to 0.6548 in order to indicate a bearish market in the same time frame.

Trading recommendations:

  • According to the previous events, the price will be moving between the levels of 0.6577 and 0.6650.
  • Buy above the price of 0.6577 with the first target of 0.6649, it might resume to 0.6682.
  • Look for further downside with the targets at 0.6682 and 0.670 below the levels of 0.6545.
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Global macro overview for 09/12/2015

Global macro overview for 09/12/2015:

The Chinese inflation edged up a little according to the consumer price index data released overnight. The index showed a slight increase from 1.3% to 1.5% in November, but remained well under the government's 2015 price target of 3 percent. This weak figures are rising concerns whether the world's second largest economy is slowly entering the deflationary territory. Moreover, the data might increase demands from economists for more stimulus and rate cuts to accelerate the growth.

However, the US Dollar index is still trading above 50- and 100-day moving average, but it failed to break higher above the golden trend-line dynamic resistance level. The next support is seen at the level of 97.82.

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for December 9, 2015

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Overview:

  • The USD/CHF pair is likely to find strong resistance at the level of 1.0048 and face support at 0.9815. Moreover, the double top will be placed at the same level of 0.9875. Equally important, the price is still moving between 0.9982 and 0.9875 today. Besides, the USD/CHF pair has been below the ratio of Fibonacci 38.2% retracement since yesterday. As a result, the price has already formed minor resistance at the level of 0.9982 and it is approaching it now in order to test it again. Therefore, the USD/CHF pair will get convincing downside momentum. The structure of the rise does not look corrective. It indicates a bearish opportunity below the levels of 0.9982 and 1.0048 in coming days. So, it will be a good sign to below 0.9982 with the first target at 0.9982 (this level coincides with the daily pivot point) and it will call for a downtrend in order to continue bearish moves towards 0.9875 and 0.9815 with a view to form a new double bottom on the H1 chart. However, the stop loss should always be taken into account. Thus, it will be wise to set your stop loss at 1.0085.
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Technical analysis of GBP/JPY for December 09, 2015

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GBP/JPY is expected to trade with a bearish bias. The pair stays below its key resistance at 185.25 moving sideways between 185.25 and 184.55. Meanwhile, the relative strength index is mixed to bearish. As long as 185.25 is resistance, look for choppy price actions with a bearish bias. The first target to the downside is set at the horizontal support and overlap at 185.55. A breakout below this level would open the way to further weakness toward 183.95.

Trading recommendations:

The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as long as it remains below the pivot point. Short positions are recommended with the first target at 184.55. A break of that target will move the pair further downwards to 183.95. The pivot point stands at 185.25. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, it will move above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. According to that scenario, long positions are recommended with the first target at 186.35.70 and the second target at 186.30.

Resistance levels: 185.70 186.30 186.55 Support levels: 184.55 183.95 183

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Global macro overview for 09/12/2015

Global macro overview for 09/12/2015:

Oil prices stabilized yesterday after suffering heavy losses as the decision of the OPEC not to consider production output cuts triggered another sell-offs. The reason for that might be another fundamental news release regarding crude oil inventories which is due to be published at 3:30pm GMT today. The previous reading came in at the level of 1170K barrels, but this week market participants expect lower number (900K barrels). This number will be monitored closely, because any bigger-than-expected stockpiles will be another reason for investors to sell crude oil again.

The technical picture for crude oil does not look very bullish at present, however the doji candle might be seen after the sell-off lows around the level of 36.63. The next resistance is seen at the level of 38.95.

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Daily analysis of major pairs for December 9, 2015

EUR/USD: The EUR/USD pair is still making attempts to go further upwards, while the bias in the market remains bullish. The price is testing the resistance line of 1.0900, and in case the resistance line is breached to the upside, the resistance line of 1.0950 would be the next target, which might be easily attained by bulls.

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USD/CHF: This pair is still in a strong bearish mode. The EMA 11 is below the EMA 56 while the Williams' % Range period 20 is often in the oversold territory. At this junction, any upwards slopes of the Williams' % Range should be interpreted as short-selling opportunities. Yes, the USD/CHF pair is under pressure at the moment.

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GBP/USD: Since testing the distribution territory of 1.5150, the GBP/USD pair has gradually come down. In fact, there is a "sell" signal in the market, just in line with the bearish expectation on GBP pairs. It is possible that the market would continue going downwards with further 150 pips this week.

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USD/JPY: This pair is yet to make any significant moves. There are short-term upswings and downswings in the market, which made the market condition great for scalpers and intraday traders. The bias is neutral and it may continue as such until there is a movement of at least 200 pips upwards or downwards.

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EUR/JPY: Following the great bullish breakout last week, this cross first traded sideways on Monday and then made an attempt to continue moving upwards on Tuesday. Since there is now a clear Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the market, it is easy for the price to continue journeying northwards. One reason for this expectation is the bright outlook for JPY pairs.

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Technical analysis of USD/CAD for December 9, 2015

General overview for 09/12/2015 11:20 CET

Another marginal high has been reached and the top for the wave B purple might now be in place at the level of 1.3621. The bearish divergence between the price and the momentum oscillator supports the view, but to confirm this, the market must breakout lower into the neutral (yellow) zone again.

Support/Resistance:

1.3621 - Swing High

1.3607 - Intraday Resistance

1.3555 - WR3

1.3547 - Intraday Support

1.3517 - Technical Support

Trading recommendations:

Day traders should consider placing sell orders from current levels with tight SL and TP at the level of 1.3547.

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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for December 9, 2015

General overview for 09/12/2015 11:10 CET

The market is still moving inside a trading range as the wave b of the overall corrective cycle is in progress. In the meantime the 615 Fibo at the level of 134.15 is tested again. If it gets broken, then the next resistance is seen at the level of 134.55.

Support/Resistance:

134.60 - Intraday Resistance

133.52 - Intraday Support

133.06 - 100&FiboExp|Weekly Pivot|

131.56 - WS1

Trading recommendations:

Day traders should refrain from trading and wait for a better trading setup to occur, because current risk to reward ratio is too high for any trade.

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USDX technical analysis for December 9, 2015

The US dollar index got rejected at the 38% Fibonacci retracement resistance as we had expected pulling back down towards last week's lows. I expect dollar bulls to give a strong fight and not surrender as the support at 97.50 is very strong.

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The US dollar index price is below the Ichimoku cloud heading lower towards the recent lows after the rejection at the 38% Fibonacci retracement. Support is found at 97.50 and resistance is seen at 98.70. Breaking above resistance could push the price towards 99-99.20. Breaking below support will push the index towards at least 97.20.

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The weekly chart continues to be overbought and, despite a sharp decline, the stochastic oscillator has not fallen much. I believe more downside should be expected in the US dollar index over the next few weeks, but any prediction now is very dangerous considering the approaching FOMC meeting and the rate hike which is on the cards. Traders should be very cautious no matter how volatility is going to spike next week.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Gold technical analysis for December 9, 2015

Gold price remains supported in the short-term as it holds above the broken resistance of the ichimoku cloud and above the 38% Fibonacci retracement of the latest rise from $1,046 to $1,089.

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Gold price is above the Ichimoku cloud in the 4-hour chart. This favors bulls. The price has retraced 38% of the latest rise and has successfully back tested the breakout area of $1,070. Bulls now need to break above $1,090, while bears need to see more selling pressures in gold and a push below $1,060.

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The weekly chart continues to justify at least a short-term bounce towards the area of $1,120 if not towards the Ichimoku cloud near $1,150-70. This can very well being also a long-term bottom, but only a breakout above $1,200-$1,250 could increase the chances of such a bullish scenario.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of Silver for December 09, 2015

Technical outlook and chart setups:

Silver is has been trading lower since it rallied last week and hit a high of $14.60. Please note that a counter-trend rally might have completed and bears can take control back, prices stay below the level of $14.60. Also note that the metal has remained just shy of Fibonacci 0.382 resistance level at $14.80. Immediate resistance is seen at $15.00, while support is seen at $13.80. We still do not see valid reason for concluding that the overall bearish outlook is over for the metal.

Trading recommendations:

Remain flat now.

Good luck!

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Technical analysis of Gold for December 09, 2015

Technical outlook and chart setups:

Gold has been trading below the recent highs made around $1,099.00 last week. The yellow metal has been trading around $1,077.00 levels for now and look still vulnerable to bears. Last week's rally was long, but that doesn't take the metal out of woods. A drop towards $1.030.00 and lower remains highly probable as the overall downtrend is still intact. It is hence recommended to initiate 50% short positions at current levels, with risk at $1,100.00. Immediate resistance is seen at $1,100.00, while support is found at $1.066.00 (interim) and lower. Bears should be poised to regain control till prices remain below the level of $1,099.00.

Trading recommendations:

Initiate short positions now ($1,077.00), stop is at $1,100.00, a target is open.

Good luck!

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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for December 09, 2015

Technical outlook and chart setups:

The EUR/JPY pair is trading around the level of 134.00 now, having stuck in a range between 133.20 and 134.50 respectively. The pair is also seen to be testing the resistance trend line, just peeping out into the buy zone now. A breakout above 134.50 would be extremely encouraging to bulls and open doors for a rally through the levels of 136.00/137.00 respectively. On the flip side, a drop below 133.20 would confirm a meaningful top is in place around 134.50 and prices should head lower. Immediate support is seen at the levels of 133.20, while resistance is seen at 134.50 respectively.

Trading recommendations:

Remain flat now.

Good luck!

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Technical analysis of GBP/CHF for December 09, 2015

Technical outlook and chart setups:

The GBP/CHF pair had dropped lower to 1.4860 levels yesterday before pulling back higher. The pair is trading around 1.4900 levels for now, looking to resume rally as depicted here. The Counter Trend dropped towards the level of 1.4930. The minimum criteria for the drop has been met and bulls are expected to take back control any moment. Also note that prices are still within the Fibonacci 0.618 support around the level of 1.4930. Immediate support is found around the level of 1.4750 followed by 1.4700 and lower, while resistance is seen at 1.5150 and higher respectively.

Trading recommendations:

Initiate long positions now, stop is at 1.4700, a target is open.

Good luck!

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for December 9, 2015

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Wave summary:

The price-action for EUR/NZD continues to unfold as expected. We are currently testing the top of wave i at 1.6490 and a breakout above here will call for an extended rally higher towards 1.7191 as the next upside target.

In the short-term, only a breakout below minor support at 1.6390 will indicate that a correction towards at least 1.6311 and 1.6221 is needed before the next impulsive rally higher.

Trading recommendation:

We are long EUR from 1.6045 and will move our stop higher to 1.6390. If you are not long EUR yet, then buy on a breakout above 1.6490 and use the same stop at 1.6390.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for December 9, 2015

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Wave summary:

We could still see a little more correction closer to support near 132.88 before the next rally higher towards at least 135.34 and possibly even 136.69 form where a new strong decline is expected.

If our count is correct, a leading diagonal seen from 141.04 to 129.62 as wave (i) and a corrective rally is currently unfolding in wave (ii). Once this corrective rally comes to an end renewed downside pressure towards 129.62 and below is expected.

Trading recommendation:

We are look for a buying opportunity at 132.95 or upon a breakout above 134.12 (one order done cancels the other).

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Daily analysis of USDX for December 09, 2015

On the H1 chart, the USDX did not show any considerable changes during Tuesday's session, as the index is trying to found strong resistance around the level of 98.80 in order to fall towards the support zone of 97.60 where buyers can appear. Anyway, our outlook for the USDX is still bearish in a short-term basis, but a rally towards the 200 SMA cannot be discarded yet.

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H1 chart's resistance levels: 98.80 / 99.25

H1 chart's support levels: 97.60 / 97.01

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place buy (long) orders only if the ISDX breaks with a bullish candlestick; the resistance level is at 98.80, take profit is at 99.25, and stop loss is at 98.34.

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Daily analysis of GBP/USD for December 09, 2015

The GBP/USD pair is currently trading in a weak mode above the support level of 1.4996, where a breakout to the downside can happen to test the level of 1.4915. The cable is doing a consolidation below the 200 SMA on the H1 chart, which is also pointing to the downside. The structure is calling for more declines in a short-term basis. The MACD indicator is entering the positive territory.

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H1 chart's resistance levels: 1.5072 / 1.5122

H1 chart's support levels: 1.4996 / 1.4915

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place sell (short) orders only if the GBP/USD pair breaks a bearish candlestick; the support level is found at 1.4996, take profit is at 1.4915, and stop loss is at 1.5079.

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