Bitcoin analysis for November 30, 2017

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The Bitcoin (BTC) has been trading downwards. The price tested the level of $8,988. New Zealand's central bank has issued a statement seeking to educate citizens of the fundamentals underpinning cryptocurrencies as well as the implications of such on monetary policy. The senior deputy governor of the Bank of Canada has stated that cryptocurrencies comprise assets or securities, rather than currencies. Brazil's central bank also addressed cryptocurrencies during November, issuing a warning to investors. Technical picture looks bearish.

Trading recommendations:

According to the 30M time frame, I found strong rejection from the resistance at the price of $11,450 in the background. I placed Pitchfork channel to find the median line and I found a successful rejection, which is a sign that sellers are in control. My advice is to watch for potential selling opportunities. The breakout of $9,360 may confirm potential testing of $8,090 (first target).

Support/Resistance

$10.521 – Intraday resistance (price action)

$8.988 – Intraday support (price action)

$8.090 – First objective point (Fibonacci expansion)

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Trading Plan for EUR/USD and US Dollar Index for November 30, 2017

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Technical outlook:

A short-term trade setup has been presented here for EUR/USD on a 4H time frame. The wave structure suggests that EUR/USD might have hit an interim resistance around 1.1950/60 levels earlier and it should be looking to drop lower at least towards 1.1700 levels going forward. As discussed yesterday, the pair has found interim support around 1.1800 levels and is looking to bounce towards 1.1900 for now and then reverse lower towards 1.1700 levels respectively. For this wave count to hold true, prices should remain below 1.1960 levels from here on. We shall be taking a short-term view for the pair at least till a meaningful top or bottom is formed. Resistance is at 1.1960 levels while support is seen through 1.1700 levels respectively. Besides, the fibonacci 0.618 support is seen to be passing through 1.1700 levels and a bullish bounce could be a possibility then.

Trading plan:

Please look to sell around 1.1900 levels with risk above 1.1970 and target 1.1700.

US Dollar Index chart setups:

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Technical outlook:

The short-term outlook for the US Dollar Index suggests that the instrument may drop lower towards 92.90 levels before picking up again towards 94.20/30 levels. Please note that resistance is strong at 94.20 since fibonacci 0.618 levels and the previous price resistance converges there. We would still recommend to remain flat at least for now and the look to go long again at lower levels. A short-term resistance trend line is also being tested and a slight correction looks to be due. Going forward, the break of that trend line would encourage bulls to target 94.20 levels at least. Please note that we are trying to remain conservative and still giving enough room for the probability above 95.00 levels going forward. It is always better to take a short-term approach for the next few trading sessions until meaningful highs and lows are formed to be held going forward.

Trading plan:

Please look to go long again around 92.90/93.00 levels stop below 92.50 and target 94.20

Fundamental outlook:

Please watch out for USD PCE Core today around 08:30 AM EST.

Good luck!

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GBP/USD analysis for November 30, 2017

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Recently, the GBP/USD pair has been trading upwards. According to the 30M time -frame, I found that price respected the support at the level of 1.3432. I also found oversold conditions on the stochastic oscillator, which is a sign that selling looks risky. My advice is to watch for potential buying opportunities. The upward target is set at the price of 1.3497 (Fibonacci expansion 100%).If the price breaks the level of 1.3500, GBP/USD might visit the level of 1.3600 (Fibonacci expansion 161.8%)

Resistance levels:

R1: 1.3461

R2: 1.3515

R3: 1.3580

Support levels:

S1: 1.3343

S2: 1.3278

S3: 1.3225

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential buying opportunities.

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EUR/USD analysis for November 30, 2017

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Recently, the EUR/USD pair has been trading downwards. According to the 1H time -frame, I found that price made a morning doji candle formation (bullish) and a fake breakout of yesterday's low at the price of 1.1816, which is a sign that selling looks risky. I also found an oversold condition on the stochastic oscillator, which is another sign of strength. My advice is to watch for potential buying opportuntiies. The upward targets are set at the price of 1.1875 and at the price of 1.1900.

Resistance levels:

R1: 1.1881

R2: 1.1915

R3: 1.1946

Support levels:

S1: 1.1815

S2: 1.1783

S3: 1.1750

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential buying opportunities.

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BITCOIN Analysis for November 30, 2017

After an impulsive rally by more than $2,000 in a day, breaching over $11,000 price area Bitcoin had a drastic fall flushing all the gains on the same day. Bitcoin has been very volatile recently amid impulsive bearish momentum which engulfed all the bullish non-volatile trendy moves at once. It was a bit of a shock for the investors, but there are rumors that due to heavy impulsive bullish pressure the market could not sustain the rapid gain which resulted in an impulsive bearish move. Most importantly, $10,000 price area was the target area for most of investors and traders for 2017 where most of them took their money out. So a lower volume with impulsive gains always leads to a drastic fall like divergence. Currently, bitcoin is trading above the dynamic levels of 20 EMA, Tenkan and Kijun line which has been holding the price as support for a certain period, and we can observe certain volatility in the cryptocurrency in the dynamic level support zone. As the price remains above the dynamic levels and $9,000 price area, the bullish bias is expected to continue further.

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Fundamental Analysis of USD/CHF for November 30, 2017

USD/CHF has been quite bullish recently after bouncing off the 0.98 support area. The bullish move was quite corrective in nature showing no impulsive momentum. The pair is currently being held by the dynamic level of 20 EMA as resistance, willing to push the price lower. Today, several positive economic reports were published in Switzerland which helped the currency to gain momentum against USD. Today Switzerland's GDP report was published with an increase to 0.6% as expected from the previous value of 0.4%, KOF Economic Barometer was published with an increase to 110.3 from the previous figure of 109.8 which was expected to decrease to 109.5 but Retail Sales report was quite a setback publishing with a negative value of -3.0% from the previous positive value of 0.5% which was expected to have a slight decrease to 0.3%. Despite the worse Retail Sales report, the Swiss currency gained good momentum against USD recently which indicates that CHF is starting to recover its losses once again. On the USD side, recent economic reports and events were quite positive for the economy which helped the currency to gain ground against CHF, though sustaining the consistent gain is a big question here. Today, US Unemployment Claims report is going to be published which is expected to increase to 241k from the previous figure of 239k, Core PCE Price Index is expected to increase to 0.2% from the previous value of 0.1%, Personal Spending is expected to decrease to 0.2% from the previous value of 1.0%, Personal Income is expected to decrease to 0.3% from the previous value of 0.4%, Chicago PMI report is expected to decrease to 62.2 from the previous figure of 66.2, and Natural Gas Storage is expected to reveal a smaller deficit to -37B from the previous figure of -46B. Moreover, FOMC Member Quarles is due to speak today about interest rate decisions and monetary policies. He is likely to be quite hawkish in nature. As of the current scenario, USD has mixed forecasts because of the upcoming economic reports and events. So, any positive readings of the economic reports will lead to gains on USD with an indication of further dominance over CHF in the coming days. Otherwise, CHF may take the lead further.

Now let us look at the technical chart. The price is currently residing below the 0.9860 price level having the dynamic level of 20 EMA holding the price as resistance. The price has been quite bullish recently which is expected to continue with the bearish trend if the price breaks below 0.9800 support area with a daily close with a target towards 0.9450. On the other hand, if the price remains above the 0.9800 support area, the bullish bias is expected to continue further and price may surge higher with a target towards 1.01 resistance area in the coming days.

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for November 30, 2017

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Overview:

  • The NZD/USD pair continues to move downwards from the level of 0.6881. Yesterday, the pair dropped from the level of 0.6881 (this level of 0.6881 coincides with the double top) to the bottom around 0.6830. Today, the first resistance level is seen at 0.6881 followed by 0.6909, while daily support 1 is found at 0.6819. Also, the level of 0.6843 represents a daily pivot point for that it is acting as major resistance/support this week. Amid the previous events, the pair is still in a downtrend, because the NZD/USD pair is trading in a bearish trend from the new resistance line of 0.6862 towards the first support level at 0.6819 in order to test it. If the pair succeeds to pass through the level of 0.6819, the market will indicate a bearish opportunity below the level of 0.6819 towards the next targets of 0.6799 and 0.6780. However, if a breakout happens at the resistance level of 0.6909, then this scenario may be invalidated.
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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for November 30, 2017

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Overview:

  • As expected, the USD/CHF pair continues to move upwards from the level of 0.9818. Since the price is above this level, the market is still in an uptrend. Furthermore, the trend is still strong above the moving average (100). The USD/CHF pair didn't make any significant movements yesterday. Hence, the market is indicating a bullish opportunity above the mentioned support levels. The bullish outlook remains valid as long as the 100 EMA is headed to the upside. Therefore, strong support will be found around the spot of 0.9818 providing a clear signal to buy with a target seen at 0.9882. If the trend breaks the first resistance at 0.9882, the pair will move upwards continuing the bullish trend development to the level of 0.9910 in order to test the daily resistance 2. On the other hand, if the USD/CHF pair succeeds to break through the support level of 0.9818 today, the market will decline further to 0.9778 in order to retest the doubl bottom on the H1 chart. Also, it should be noted that the major resistance is seen at 0.9946.
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Fundamental analysis of NZD/USD for November 30, 2017

NZD/USD has been quite bearish recently as expected. It was supported by the dynamic level of 20 EMA which keeps the price low along the way. According to the RBZ Financial Stability report published recently the New Zealand economy is stated as stable by RBNZ Governor Spencer but there are certain international risks related to growing asset prices and high levels of debt in several countries. On the other hand, USD has been in a quite indecisive mode with the upcoming rate hike in December due to lower inflation rate which confused the market sentiment. However, the recent economic reports and events had been quite hawkish resulting to further gains on the USD side. Today in New Zealand the ANZ Business Confidence Report was published with a greater deficit at -39.3 from the previous figure of -10.1 which helped USD to gain better momentum over NZD. On the USD side, Yellen was quite positive with her speech about development in employment and expecting to have consistent growth in the coming months as well. Today the US Unemployment Claims report is going to be published which is expected to increase to 241k from the previous figure of 239k. Besides, the Core PCE Price Index report is expected to increase to 0.2% from the previous value of 0.1%, Personal Spending is expected to decrease to 0.2% from the previous value of 1.0%. Furthermore, the Personal Income is also expected to decrease to 0.3% from the previous value of 0.4%. Chicago PMI report is forecasted to decrease to 62.2 from the previous figure of 66.2 and the Natural Gas Storage is expected to be published with a decrease in deficit at -37B from the previous figure of -46B. Additionally, FOMC Member Quarles is going to speak today about the upcoming interest rate decisions and monetary policy which is expected to be quite hawkish in nature. As of the current scenario, USD is expected to gain over NZD despite having mixed forecast for the economic reports to be published today. The growth of the US economy seems quite slow but in comparison to New Zealand it is quite strong to dominate the further momentum in the pair.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price is currently in the process of breaking below the 0.6850 support level with a daily close which is expected to lead to further bearish momentum in the pair with target towards 0.6670 support area. The price has been quite responsive with the dynamic level along the way since it bounced off the 0.7450 area and as the price is contained by the dynamic level of 20 EMA as resistance, the impulsive bearish pressure is expected to continue further.

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Daily analysis of major pairs for November 30, 2017

EUR/USD: The EUR/USD pair has only consolidated so far this week. There is still a Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the market (and there cannot be an overthrow of the bias until the support line at 1.1750 is breached to the downside). In case price turns upwards again from here, that would be a great opportunity to buy at a better price.

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USD/CHF: The pair has rallied by more than 60 pips this week, and price has moved above the support level at 0.9850. This has become a threat to the recent bearish outlook on the market. Once price goes above the resistance level at 0.9900 (the next target), it would lead to a Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the market.

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GBP/USD: The Cable has become clearly bullish as its recent bullish attempt has paid off. The EMA 11 is above the EMA 56 and the RSI period 14 is above the level 50. The next targets for bulls are located at 1.3500 and 1.3550. Some fundamental figures are expected today, and they would have impact on the market.

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USD/JPY: Since testing the demand level at 111.00, this currency trading instrument has gone upwards by more than 150 pips. Such bullish movement was significant enough to become a threat to the recent bearish bias on the market. Once the supply level at 113.00 is overcome, the bias on the market would become bullish.

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EUR/JPY: The EUR/JPY pair has now started going upwards, and it has generated a "buy" signal. Price is above the demand zone at 133.00, going upwards towards the supply zone at 133.50 (the first target). Other targets are located at the supply zones 134.00 and 134.50.

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Global macro overview for 30/11/2017

The threat of a US government shutdown increases.

The threat of suspension of federal government operations, so-called "government shutdown" increased this week after the Democrats boycotted the meeting with President Donald Trump and stiffened their position, making it virtually impossible to reach a compromise. Congress, to avoid the suspension of government activities, must adopt the necessary budget acts by December 8, or at least extend the budget provisional, thanks to which the federal government functions from the beginning of the fiscal year which began in the US on October 1.This will be very difficult because the attention of President Trump and the Republicans is completely focused on the actions aimed at adopting the bill on reforming the tax system by the Senate.

Meanwhile, Democrats are demanding that a possible agreement ensuring further financial liquidity for the federal government would also cover the situation of approx. 690,000 illegal immigrants, who on average had 6.5 years, when they illegally crossed the territory of the USA. Those people, who are called "dreamers", (the dreamers of the acronym of the Act of Development, Relief, and Education for Alien Minors Act (DREAM)), are threatened with deportation if Congress does not find a solution by the end of March next year. President Trump has hoped to reach a compromise on the "dreamers" when, ahead of a planned meeting with Senate Democratic minority leader Senator Charles Schumer and minority leader of the Democratic House of Representatives, he wrote on Twitter: "Democrats want a wave of illegal uncontrolled immigration to flood the country. "and" are interested in raising taxes ".

If by December 8 legislators do not find a way out of this impasse, and immigration is not the only point of contention, the federal government, with the exception of key ministries such as defense and security, will cease its activities and government employees remain in unpaid homes. This might have a severe impact on financial markets, especially on the US Dollar which will likely depreciate across the board.

Let's now take a look at the USD/JPY technical picture in the H4 time frame. The market bounced from the technical support zone at the level of 110.85 and now is testing the black trend line just below the technical resistance at the level of 112.46. A breakout higher would lead to the test of the nearest resistance at the level of 112.72. The nearest support is seen at the level of 111.88.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for November 30, 2017

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Wave summary:

EUR/NZD tried to break below short-term important support at 1.7100, which failed and the result is a bounce back to near the top at 1.7393. We expect this resistance will continue to protect the upside for renewed downside pressure towards 1.7100 and a clear break below will call for a decline towards 1.6615 to complete wave ii.

Only a direct break above important resistance at 1.7408 will force a revision of our long-term count a call for a direct rally towards 1.8000.

R3: 1.7408

R2: 1.7394

R1: 1.7355

Pivot: 1.7300

S1: 1.7270

S2: 1.7213

S3: 1.7158

Trading recommendation:

We are short EUR from 1.7200 with our stop placed at 1.7400.

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Global macro overview for 30/11/2017

The closer to the end of Janet Yellen's term, the Federal Reserve Chairperson expresses increasingly bold theses. The head of the most important central bank of the world, this time referred to the huge US debt. During her last career speech in front of the US Congress, Yellen delivered a fairly standard speech summarizing the current state of the US economy and the Federal Reserve policy. Much more interesting was the series of questions from the Congressmen. "I am very concerned about the possibility of sustaining the trajectory of US debt growth. Currently, our debt-to-GDP ratio is 75 percent. This is not a scary level, but it is not low either. But when it comes to forecasting the Congressional Budget Office, there are things that people should be dreaming of " said Janet Yellen in the context of planned tax reforms, which could further boost the hole in the US budget. At the end, she added: "If we allow the economy to overheat, then we will be in a situation where we will have to raise interest rates and drive the economy into recession. We do not want to cause cycles of boom and collapse".

At present, US public debt is over USD 20.5 trillion. A 75 percent, which Janet Yellen mentioned, is the debt-to-GDP ratio excluding the debt securities held by US government institutions (the total debt to GDP ratio has already reached 100 percent). According to forecasts mentioned by the Fed Chair, if there are no profound changes in US public finances, by 2047 the debt-to-GDP ratio will increase from the current 75%. to 150%. Federal Reserve critics often recall that it is the Fed low-interest-rate policy that allows the American authorities a powerful increase in debt. Quite to say that from December 2008 to December 2015 - that is, during the period in which the Fed kept rates close to zero - US public debt rose by 77 percent. Moreover, as part of a quantitative easing program, the US central bank purchased secondary government bonds on the secondary market, and the profits from that transaction, legally, were transferred to the Treasury Department.

Let's now take a look at the US Dollar Index technical picture at the H4 time frame. After a bounce from the level of 92.54 the price tried to rally, but so far was capped at the technical resistance at the level of 93.39. This local high might be labeled as a lower high and now the price must rally higher towards the level of 94.03 to break the sequence of lower highs and lower lows.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for November 30, 2017

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Wave summary:

EUR/JPY has bounced back and is again trading near resistance at 133.24. A clear break above this resistance, will call for a new rally closer to 133.71 before renewed downside pressure should be expected. The top at 134.50 should remain safe.

Only a direct break below minor support at 132.78 we add renewed downside pressure towards 131.14 and below.

R3: 133.71

R2: 133.46

R1: 133.24

Pivot: 132.78

S1: 132.46

S2: 131.95

S3: 131.70

Trading recommendation:

We are short EUR from 132.55 with stop placed at 133.35.

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NZD/USD Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for November 30, 2017

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Daily Outlook

A recent bullish breakout above the downtrend line took place on May 22. Since then, the market has been bullish as depicted on the chart.

This resulted in a quick bullish advance towards next price zones around 0.7150-0.7230 (Key-Zone) and 0.7310-0.7380 which was temporarily breached to the upside.

Recent bearish pullback was executed towards the price zone of 0.7310-0.7380 (newly-established demand-zone) which failed to offer enough bullish support for the NZD/USD pair.

Re-consolidation below the price level of 0.7300 enhanced the bearish side of the market. This brought the NZD/USD pair again towards 0.7230-0.7150 (Key-Zone) which failed to pause the ongoing bearish momentum.

An atypical Head and Shoulders pattern was expressed on the depicted chart which initiated bearish reversal.

As expected, the price level of 0.7050 failed to offer enough bullish support for the NZD/USD pair. That's why, further bearish decline was expected towards 0.6800 (Reversal pattern bearish target).

Evident signs of bullish recovery was expressed around the recent low (0.6780). That's why, a bullish pullback was expected towards 0.7050.

On the other hand, an inverted Head and Shoulders pattern is being established on the chart indicating bullish reversal.

That's why, the price zone of 0.6800-0.6830 can be considered for a short-term BUY entry. S/L should be placed below 0.6770.

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Bitcoin analysis for 30/11/2017

According to China Central Television (CCTV), Chinese digital currency exchanges allowing peer-to-peer trade between Chinese yuan and cryptocurrencies may violate financial rules. Recalling the significant increase in trading on the OTC market in China as one of the possible reasons for Bitcoin's price increase, the program spoke of concerns about this practice. Financial columnist and television personality Li Cangyu, in a statement from the People's Bank of China (PBOC) in September, said p2p is trying to deceive law enforcement and violates a specific rule issued by the PBoC, which forbids any trade practice between cryptocurrencies and fiduciary currencies. Another commentator, Wan Zhe, chief economist at China National Gold Group Corporation, the central state-owned gold mining company in the country, repeated Li's opinion and referenced Huobi Pro's website: "Not every trade in a peer-to-peer network is necessarily illegal, but by providing a "how to" guide and a trading platform of this type we undoubtedly violate the rules." It is worth to mention here, that after the ban on ICO by the Chinese Central Bank and the suspension of transactions between cryptocurrencies and Chinese yuan, large national stock exchanges, including Huobi and OKCoin, have moved their operations to foreign peer-to-peer trading platforms such as Huobi Pro. or OKEx.

CCTV is a state channel and one of the official spokespersons of the government and the Communist Party of China. Although the program itself did not reveal the government's official position, it provided an important message and gave insights into how state media depict cryptocurrencies. The next parts of the program also discussed the high variability of Bitcoin and the benefits of Blockchain technology. Commentator Wan also presented counterfactual statements, saying that Amazon now accepts Bitcoin as a payment method.

Let's now take a look at the Bitcoin technical picture at the H4 time frame. The reversal from the Fibonacci cluster between the levels of $11,111 - $11,318 was spot on and the price dropped down to the level of the previous wave four zones at $9,243. This price action indicates a possible start of a deeper corrective movement, and wave (a) of this correction might have started already.

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Ichimoku indicator analysis of USDX for November 30, 2017

The US dollar index remains inside the bearish channel. The trend remains bearish in the medium term but we have short-term bullish reversal signs. We have been calling a reversal off the 92.50 price area and so far we were correct. Our primary scenario expects a big bounce above November highs.

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Black lines - bearish channel

The US dollar index remains inside the bearish channel and below the 4-hour Ichimoku cloud. Trend is bearish. However I believe that this upward bounce is a part of a bigger bounce that is expected eventually to push the price above 95. Support now is at 93 while resistance levels are found at 93.50 and 93.80. A break above the 4-hour cloud will be a bullish sign.

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The US dollar index is reversing off the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. This bounce is expected to move the price higher. Resistance on a weekly basis is at 94 and 94.50. A weekly close above these two levels will most probably push the index towards the weekly cloud at 96.50-97. As long as we do not break below this week's lows, I remain bullish.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for November 30, 2017

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Monthly Outlook

In January 2015, the EUR/USD pair moved below the major demand levels near 1.2050-1.2100 (multiple previous bottoms set in July 2012 and June 2010). Hence, a long-term bearish target was projected toward 0.9450.

In March 2015, EUR/USD bears challenged the monthly demand level around 1.0500, which had been previously reached in August 1997.

In the longer term, the level of 0.9450 remains a projected target if any monthly candlestick achieves bearish closure below the depicted monthly demand level of 1.0500.

However, the EUR/USD pair has been trapped within the depicted consolidation range (1.0500-1.1450) until the current bullish breakout was executed above 1.1450.

The current bullish breakout above 1.1450 allowed a quick bullish advance towards 1.2100 where recent evidence of bearish rejection was expressed (Note the previous Monthly candlestick of September).

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Daily Outlook

In January 2017, the previous downtrend was reversed when the Inverted Head and Shoulders pattern was established around 1.0500. Since then, evident bullish momentum has been expressed on the chart.

As anticipated, the ongoing bullish momentum allowed the EUR/USD pair to pursue further bullish advance towards 1.1415-1.1520 (Previous Daily Supply-Zone).

The daily supply zone failed to pause the ongoing bullish momentum. Instead, evident bullish breakout was expressed towards the price level of 1.2100 where the depicted Head and Shoulders reversal pattern was expressed.

If the recent bearish breakout persists below 1.1700 (Neckline of the reversal pattern), a quick bearish decline should be expected towards the price zone of 1.1415-1.1520 (Initial targets for the depicted H&S pattern).

Bearish target for the depicted Head and Shoulders pattern extends towards 1.1350. However, to pursue towards the mentioned target level, significant bearish pressure is needed to be applied against the mentioned zone (1.1415-1.1520).

However, recent price action around the price zone of 1.1520-1.1415 indicated evident bullish recovery. This hinders further bearish decline as long as the recent low around 1.1550 remains unbroken.

Trade Recommendations

The current price levels around 1.1900-1.1950 should be watched for a possible short-term SELL entry if the current signs of bearish rejection are maintained.

S/L should be placed above 1.2030. T/P levels to be located at 1.1850, 1.1700 and 1.1590.

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Ichimoku indicator analysis of gold for November 30, 2017

As expected, gold price got rejected at the upper channel boundary. The break below the black trend line support has given a new short-term sell signal that so far remains in profit as price has fallen towards the lower channel boundary and cloud support.

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Blue lines - bullish channel

Black line - support (broken)

Gold price is breaking below the 4-hour Kumo support. Price is now testing the lower channel boundary. As I have been saying for the past few days, Gold price is expected to move sharply lower towards $1,250. A break below support of $1,280 will confirm that this move has started.

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On a daily basis, Gold price has been rejected by the Daily Kumo (cloud). This is a bearish sign that we were expecting. Price is below the daily tenkan-sen (red line indicator) and is testing the kijun-sen (yellow line indicator). A daily close below the Kijun-sen will be a bearish sign. I expect Gold to move lower towards $1,250 over the coming days.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Trading plan for 30/11/2017

Oil in relative peace awaits the decision of the OPEC summit. The GBP, AUD and NZD exchanges received individual reasons for volatility. On the stock market mixed moods. Japanese Nikkei 225 is up 0.6%, but China's Shanghai Composite loses 0.7%.

On Thursday 30th of November, the event calendar is quite busy in important economic releases. During the London session, France, Germany, Italy, and the eurozone will post Consumer Price Index and Unemployment Rate data, Switzerland will present KOF Economic Barometer, Retail Sales and GDP data. During the US session, Canada will present Current Account data, and the US will reveal Unemployment Claims, Personal Spending, Personal Income and Chicago Purchasing Manager Index data. Two FOMC members have a scheduled speeches later on: Randal K. Quarles and Robert Kaplan.

Crude Oil analysis for 30/11/2017:

The latest news from Vienna, which again pushes West Texas Intermediate oil (-1.6%) towards $57.00 per barrel, contributed to the strong reshuffle of sentiment on the global oil market. According to the Russian Minister of Energy, Alexander Nowak, the world's miners have agreed to further reduce the production of raw materials. Salt in the eye was intended to be the publication of more detailed data on the extension of the contract, which will ultimately depend on the course of tomorrow's session.

Let's now take a look at the Crude Oil technical picture in the H4 time frame. The market dropped below the dashed blue intraday trend line and hit the technical support at the level of $56.78. The momentum is not hovering around its fifty level and the market conditions look oversold, so any positive outcome from the OPEC meeting might result in surge higher in oil. The nearest resistance is seen at the level of $58.59 and $59.04.

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Market Snapshot: DAX head and shoulders pattern still in progress

The price of German DAX index keeps making a right shoulder in a head and shoulders technical pattern. This arm starts to look like a triangle now as the price is bouncing back and forth from the support and resistance levels. Any break out above 13, 200 will invalidate this pattern. The key support is seen at the level of 12,911.

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Market Snapshot: Gold still in the channel zone

The price of Gold is back to the lower channel line at the level of $1,280 after a failure to rally at the upper channel line at the level of $1,298. The next technical support is seen at the level of $1,276. The key technical resistance is still the zone between the levels of $1,298 - $1,305.

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Burning Forecast 30/11/2017

Burning Forecast 30/11/2017

EURUSD: Buy for a breakout range.

On Wednesday, the Fed issued a Beige Book report: The US economy shows signs of slowing. A slowdown in consumer spending, while economic growth is "very moderate." The GDP report was released - GDP growth accelerated to +3.3%, but the inflation index for GDP (deflator) is lower than forecast.

The Fed has no reason to accelerate the rate hikes in the coming months.

Conclusion: The growth of the EURUSD pair is more likely.

Buy the euro for a breakdown from 1.1885. Stop-loss is at 1.1840. The target is 1.2080.

Alternative: sell for a breakthrough of 1.1815 downwards, stop-loss at 1.1860, target at 1.1710.

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for November 30, 2017

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All our upside targets which we predicted in yesterday's analysis have been hit. USD/JPY is expected to trade with a bullish outlook. the pair is breaching the 112.00 level on the upside while being supported by the ascending 20-period moving average. The relative strength index stays above the neutrality level of 50 showing a lack of downward momentum for the pair. The intraday outlook continues to be bullish, and the pair is expected to advance toward 112.40 before targeting 112.65. Only a break below the key support at 111.65 would bring about a bearish reversal.

Alternatively, if the price moves in the opposite direction, a short position is recommended below 111.65 with a target of 111.35.

Chart Explanation: The black line shows the pivot point. The current price above the pivot point indicates a bullish position, while the price below the pivot point is a signal for a short position. The red lines show the support levels and the green line indicates the resistance level. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Strategy: BUY, Stop Loss: 111.65, Take Profit: 112.40

Resistance levels: 112.40, 112.65 and 113.00 Support Levels: 111.35, 111.10, 110.70

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for November 30, 2017

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USD/CHF is expected to trade with a bullish outlook. The pair remains bullish above its key support at 0.9820. The relative strength index lacks downward momentum. Therefore, even though a consolidation cannot be ruled out, its extent should be very limited.

On the economic data front, the U.S. Commerce Department reported that GDP grew 3.3% on quarter in the third quarter, the fastest pace since the third quarter of 2014, compared with +3.0% previously estimated and +3.1% in the second quarter. The Federal Reserve's beige book report pointed out that economic activity expanded at a "modest to moderate pace" in recent weeks amid signs of rising prices and ongoing strength in labor markets. Also, in her final testimony to Congress, Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen said, "The economic expansion is increasingly broad-based across sectors as well as across much of the global economy." Meanwhile, the National Association of Realtors reported that its pending home sales index rose 3.5% on month to 109.3 in October, compared with +1.4% expected.

As long as 0.9820 holds on the downside, look for a new rise to 0.9870 & 0.9900 in extension.

Chart Explanation: The black line shows the pivot point. The present price above the pivot point indicates a bullish position, and the price below the pivot points indicates a short position. The red lines show the support levels and the green line indicates the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Strategy: BUY, Stop Loss: 0.9820, Take Profit: 0.9870

Resistance levels: 0.9870, 0.9900, and 0.9935

Support levels: 0.9795, 0.9775, and 0.9720

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Technical analysis of GBP/JPY for November 30, 2017

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All our upside targets which we predicted in yesterday's analysis have been hit. the pair is expected to continue its upside movement. The pair managed to break above its horizontal level at 149.90, which should confirm a bullish reversal. The 50-period moving average is turning up and should continue to push the prices higher. Besides, the relative strength index shows upside momentum.

To conclude, as long as 149.90 is not broken, look for further advance to 151.55 and 152 in extension.

Alternatively, if the price moves in the direction opposite to the forecast, a short position is recommended below 149.90 with the target at 149.30.

Strategy: BUY, Stop Loss: 149.90, Take Profit: 151.55

Chart Explanation: the black line shows the pivot point. The price above the pivot point indicates long positions; and when it is below the pivot points, it indicates short positions. The red lines show the support levels and the green line indicates the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Resistance levels: 151.55, 152.00, and 152.60

Support levels: 149.30, 148.85, and 148

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for November 30, 2017

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All our downside targets which we predicted in yesterday's analysis have been hit. NZD/USD is expected to trade with a bearish outlook. The pair is accelerating on the downside this morning. The technical indicator such as the relative strength index is bearish and is now within its "oversold" area (below 30). The 20-period and 50-period moving averages are heading downward, which should confirm a negative outlook.

In which case, as long as 0.6900 is not surpassed, likely decline to 0.6830 and 0.6810 in extension.

The black line shows the pivot point. Currently, the price is above the pivot point, which indicates long positions. If it remains below the pivot point, it will indicate short positions. The red lines are showing the support levels and the green line is indicating the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Resistance levels: 0.6925, 0.6945, and 0.6990

Support levels: 0.6830, 0.6810, and 0.6770

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for Nov 30, 2017

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When the European market opens, some Economic Data will be released, such as Unemployment Rate, Italian Prelim CPI m/m, Core CPI Flash Estimate y/y, CPI Flash Estimate y/y, ECB Financial Stability Review, Italian Monthly Unemployment Rate, German Unemployment Change, French Prelim CPI m/m, and German Retail Sales m/m. The US will release the Economic Data, too, such as Natural Gas Storage, Chicago PMI, Personal Income m/m, Personal Spending m/m, Core PCE Price Index m/m, and Unemployment Claims, so, amid the reports, EUR/USD will move in a low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:

Breakout BUY Level: 1.1910.

Strong Resistance:1.1903.

Original Resistance: 1.1892.

Inner Sell Area: 1.1881.

Target Inner Area: 1.1853.

Inner Buy Area: 1.1825.

Original Support: 1.1814.

Strong Support: 1.1803.

Breakout SELL Level: 1.1796.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for Nov 30, 2017

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In Asia, Japan will release the Housing Starts y/y and Prelim Industrial Production m/m data, and the US will release some Economic Data, such as Natural Gas Storage, Chicago PMI, Personal Income m/m, Personal Spending m/m, Core PCE Price Index m/m, and Unemployment Claims. So, there is a probability the USD/JPY will move with a low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:

Resistance. 3: 112.58.

Resistance. 2: 112.36.

Resistance. 1: 112.14.

Support. 1: 111.87.

Support. 2: 111.65.

Support. 3: 111.43.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

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USD/JPY approaching profit target perfectly, prepare to sell

The price has bounced up perfectly and is fast approaching our profit target as expected. We look to sell below major resistance at 112.53 (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap resistance) for a push down to at least 110.98 support (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap support, Fibonacci extension).

Stochastic (34,3,1) is seeing major resistance below 97% and we expect a strong reaction off that level soon.

Sell below 112.53. Stop loss is at 113.41. Take profit is at 110.98.

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USD/CHF testing our selling area and forming a nice reversal pattern, remain bearish

The price has made a pullback to our selling area exactly as expected and is now testing our selling area. We remain bearish looking to sell on strength below major resistance at 0.9842 (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap resistance, breakout pullback, bearish divergence) for a further push down to at least 0.9733 support (Fibonacci retracement, Fibonacci extension, horizontal swing low support).

Stochastic (21,3,1) is dropping nicely from our resistance and has also formed bearish divergence vs price signaling that a reversal is impending.

Sell below 0.9842. Stop loss is at 0.9884. Take profit is at 0.9733.

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Daily analysis of USDX for November 30, 2017

USDX continues with the recovery across the board and it's now challenging the 200 SMA, at which a breakout should open the doors to test the resistance zone of 94.00. The current stage in the greenback is key, as we could see a bearish continuation towards the support level of 91.85. MACD indicator is entering the positive territory.

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H1 chart's resistance levels: 93.60 / 93.98

H1 chart's support levels: 92.70 / 91.85

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place sell (short) orders only if the USD Index breaks with a bearish candlestick; the support level is at 92.70, take profit is at 91.85 and stop loss is at 93.53.

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Daily analysis of GBP/USD for November 30, 2017

The bulls are setting the tone in the GBP/USD pair, as it has made a rebound above the 200 SMA at H1 chart and targets the resistance zone of 1.3440. A breakout around that area should expose the level of 1.3541, which should strengthen the bullish scenario in the mid-term. However, if it manages to make a pullback, then it could test the support area of 1.3303.

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H1 chart's resistance levels: 1.3440 / 1.3541

H1 chart's support levels: 1.3303 / 1.3244

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, buy (long) orders only if the GBP/USD pair breaks a bullish candlestick; the resistance level is at 1.3440, take profit is at 1.3541 and stop loss is at 1.3337.

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Gold builds Fed eyes

Weakness of the US dollar allowed gold, for the first time since mid-October, to touch the psychologically important mark of $1300 per ounce. The precious metal has grown by almost 13% since the beginning of the year, marking its best result since 2010. It is on track to end November in positive territory following two months of a gradual decline due to the renewal of the Fed's fears about the persistent unwillingness of inflation to move to the 2% target. Representatives of the Central Bank argue that the indicator may be below the target benchmark longer than initially thought. In such conditions, the advisability of further tightening of monetary policy seems dubious, and low rates of the US debt market allow the "bulls" for the XAU/USD to organize periodic attacks.

Dynamics of gold,% since the beginning of the year

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Source: Bloomberg.

The success of gold in late autumn is due to uncertainty about the outcome of the vote in the US Congress on tax reform, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and around North Korea, as well as the political crisis in Germany. Angela Merkel still has not managed to create a coalition, which preserves the risks of a repeat in elections. Pyongyang launched another ballistic missile, and the implementation of fiscal stimulus in the United States is in question. In such turbid waters, investors prefer to diversify portfolios in favor of safe-havens, which is favorably reflected in the positions of bulls in the XAU/USD.

The increase in interest in precious metals is clearly visible in such indicators as the growth in the volume of trading on COMEX by 52% compared to its average values, the growth of the total open interest for three consecutive quarters (the longest series since 2009), and the achievement of ETF stocks to peak marks since the beginning of the year. At the same time, the decline in Chinese net imports from Hong Kong in January-October to 561.4 tons (-108 tons) indirectly indicates gold flows from the East to the West, which is one of the signs of a "bullish" trend. In 2013, during the collapse of prices, the reverse process took place.

The offensive rush of bulls on the the XAU/USD is impeded by positive US macroeconomic data, the growth of hopes for the implementation of the tax reform and the moderate "hawkish" rhetoric of Jerome Powell. Within five minutes, the upcoming head of the Fed said that the slow normalization of monetary policy in a strong labor market and the economy will help diffuse inflation. As a result, the Central Bank will be forced to act more aggressively than at present, which will bring the US closer to a recession. Let me remind you that at present the fixed-term market expects two rate increases in 2018, while FOMC plans to consider three. If CME futures starts to raise chances, the dollar will be in demand.

The dynamics of gold can affect the release of data on European inflation. Disappointing statistics will help to weaken the euro, which is a bullish factor for the USD index and bearish for the XAU/USD.

Technically, a break of resistance at $1302 per ounce will increase the risks of implementing the "Dragon" pattern and the probability of a recovery of the uptrend.

Gold, daily chart

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Analysis of bitcoin for November 29, 2017

Bitcoin has been unstoppable recently having non-volatile impulsive trend breaking above the $10,000 and $11,000 price areas at the same day. The recent moves were very fast indeed, having exceeded the expectations and moving rapidly higher. The cryptocurrency broke the volatility rate record as well. Bitcoin has been breaking records since its inception despite the challenges it faced along the way. This year has been very remarkable for the cryptocurrency showing over 400% growth in past few months. The impulsive drive higher was made possible due to the re-scheduling of the fork in November which increased the demand for the Bitcoin. As of the current scenario, price has been quite responsive with the dynamic levels of 20 EMA, Tenkan and Kijun line where every retracement was pushed back higher off the levels. The trend is still non-volatile though certain spike after breaching above $11,000 was observed. As the price remains above the dynamic level, it is expected that the price will head towards $12,000 very soon.

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Daily analysis of GBP/JPY for November 29, 2017

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Overview

The GBP/JPY pair managed to test the key support yesterday by declining towards 147.35. Following this sharp move, the pair started forming strong bullish waves to settle around 149.00 level. This reinforces our bullish outlook. Please note that stochastic's rally above 50 will confirm the domination of the expected bullish bias. Therefore, we will be waiting for new positive pressure towards 150.00 that forms the first positive target. Besides, note that breaching this barrier will allow the price to record more targets that start at 151.50 followed by 152.85. The expected trading range for today is between 148.20 and 150.00

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Daily analysis of USD/JPY for November 29, 2017

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Overview

The USD/JPY pair resumed the upward bias and approached the key resistance of 111.90. Please note that the EMA50 continues to form the negative pressure in the intraday trading, while stochastic keeps moving in the overbought areas. Therefore, we believe that the chances are valid so that the pair can retreat and resume the correctional bearish trend. The first downward target after breaking 111.00 will confirm a further bearish wave towards 110.15. Let me remind you that holding below 111.90 represents the key condition to continue the expected decline. The expected trading range for today is between 110.50 support and 112.30 resistance.

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Daily analysis of Gold for November 29, 2017

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Overview

Gold price opens today's trading with a slight bullish bias to approach the key resistance of 1,299.20. As we mentioned in our recent articles, the price needs to breach this level to confirm a further bullish wave towards our next positive target at 1,321.50. In general, we still suggest the bullish trend in the upcoming sessions on the grounds of the EMA50 and stochastic. Let me remind you that breaking 1,281.17 will stop the suggested rise and push the price to test 1,263.15 areas before any new attempt to climb. The expected trading range for today is between 1,285.00 support and 1,310.00 resistance.

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Daily analysis of Silver for November 29, 2017

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Overview

Silver traded lower yesterday, moving below 17.00, while the main bullish trend is still suggested as long as the price remains stable above 16.56. Breaking this level will push the price down to the target of 15.49 before any new attempt to rise. Our first target is projected by breaching 17.43 to confirm that the way is open towards 18.30 as the next main station. The expected trading range for today is between 16.75 support and 17.05 resistance.

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EUR/USD analysis for November 29, 2017

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Recently, the EUR/USD has been trading downwards. The price tested the level of 1.1816. Anyway, according to the 15M time – frame, I found a fake breakout of yesterday's low at the price of 1.1827, which is a sign that selling looks risky. I also found a hidden bullish divergence on the RSI oscillator and bullish outside bar, which is a sign that buyers came into the market. My advice is to watch for potential buying opportunities. The upward targets are set at the price of 1.1848 and at the price of 1.1881.

Resistance levels:

R1: 1.1896

R2: 1.1956

R3: 1.1997

Support levels:

S1: 1.1805

S2: 1.1770

S3: 1.1712

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential buying opportunities.

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GBP/USD analysis for November 29, 2017

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Recently, the GBP/USD pair has been trading upwards. The price tested the level of 1.3430. According to the 30M time – frame, I found testing of the previous day's high at the price of 1.3387 that is a sign that selling looks risky. I also found oversold conditions on the stochastic oscillator, which is another sign of srength. I placed a Fibonacci expansion to find potential upward targets. I got FE 61.8% at the price of 1.3431 and FE 100% at the price of 1.3495.

Resistance levels:

R1: 1.3411

R2: 1.3483

R3: 1.3578

Support levels:

S1: 1.3244

S2: 1.3150

S3: 1.3077

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential buying opportunities.

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