Fundamental analysis of NZD/USD for November 30, 2017

NZD/USD has been quite bearish recently as expected. It was supported by the dynamic level of 20 EMA which keeps the price low along the way. According to the RBZ Financial Stability report published recently the New Zealand economy is stated as stable by RBNZ Governor Spencer but there are certain international risks related to growing asset prices and high levels of debt in several countries. On the other hand, USD has been in a quite indecisive mode with the upcoming rate hike in December due to lower inflation rate which confused the market sentiment. However, the recent economic reports and events had been quite hawkish resulting to further gains on the USD side. Today in New Zealand the ANZ Business Confidence Report was published with a greater deficit at -39.3 from the previous figure of -10.1 which helped USD to gain better momentum over NZD. On the USD side, Yellen was quite positive with her speech about development in employment and expecting to have consistent growth in the coming months as well. Today the US Unemployment Claims report is going to be published which is expected to increase to 241k from the previous figure of 239k. Besides, the Core PCE Price Index report is expected to increase to 0.2% from the previous value of 0.1%, Personal Spending is expected to decrease to 0.2% from the previous value of 1.0%. Furthermore, the Personal Income is also expected to decrease to 0.3% from the previous value of 0.4%. Chicago PMI report is forecasted to decrease to 62.2 from the previous figure of 66.2 and the Natural Gas Storage is expected to be published with a decrease in deficit at -37B from the previous figure of -46B. Additionally, FOMC Member Quarles is going to speak today about the upcoming interest rate decisions and monetary policy which is expected to be quite hawkish in nature. As of the current scenario, USD is expected to gain over NZD despite having mixed forecast for the economic reports to be published today. The growth of the US economy seems quite slow but in comparison to New Zealand it is quite strong to dominate the further momentum in the pair.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price is currently in the process of breaking below the 0.6850 support level with a daily close which is expected to lead to further bearish momentum in the pair with target towards 0.6670 support area. The price has been quite responsive with the dynamic level along the way since it bounced off the 0.7450 area and as the price is contained by the dynamic level of 20 EMA as resistance, the impulsive bearish pressure is expected to continue further.


The material has been provided by InstaForex Company -