Trading plan for USD/JPY for September 06, 2019

analytics5d71ead642c68.jpg

Technical outlook:

USD/JPY has managed to rally (probable impulse shown at (1)), past initial resistance at 107.10/20 levels. It also passed the initial trendline resistance into the buy zone, trading close to 107.00 levels at the moment.

Looking into the wave counts, a higher degree Wave (3) might be underway with waves 1 terminating yesterday around 107.25 levels. One can expect a corrective drop towards wave 2 around 106.31/35 levels before the 3rd of (3)rd wave resumes higher. If the above counts are valid, prices should remain at 105.75. Then the pair is likely to rally towards 109.60/70 levels breaking above the next resistance at 109.30 as depicted here. Immediate support is at 105.75, followed by 104.45, while resistance is seen at 109.31 respectively. Look to initiate long positions on dips towards 106.30 levels with risk below 105.70 for now.

Trading plan:

Long around 106.30/40, stop below 105.75 target is open.

Good luck!

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Trading plan for EUR/USD for September 06, 2019

analytics5d71e4d7e05ac.jpg

Technical outlook:

EUR managed to bounce off 1.0925 levels discussed earlier. The single currency has rallied straight to the fibonacci 0.618 resistance as presented here. It still remains into the sell zone of the resent trend line resistance, hence we would respect the overall view. Until prices remain below 1.1250, it would be too early to confirm that a meaningful bottom is in place. Looking at the wave structure, if 1.0925 was the termination of Wave v of C, we should see the rally continue further and break above 1.1250 going forward. From the trading stand point, it is suggested to take profits on the longs initiated earlier and remain flat waiting for a corrective drop. Aggressive traders might want to go short against 1.1165 in anticipation of the bearish continuation. Please note if prices bounce back around the 1.0980 levels, we would review again for a potential bullish reversal. Immediate price resistance is seen at 1.1165 levels while interim support is defined at 1.0925 respectively.

Trading plan:

Please book profits on long positions taken earlier. Aggressive traders go short with stop at 1.1165, target is open.

Good luck!

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP/USD: plan for the European session on September 6. You might think about short-term pound sales after updating yesterday's

To open long positions on GBP/USD you need:

Buyers of the pound expect growth to continue, but it will be extremely difficult to do so after such a major trend that has been observed throughout the week. The problem is still the resistance of 1.2343, and only its break will provide a larger upward trend to the area of highs 1.2387 and 1.2427, where I recommend taking profits. However, it is best to make more rational purchases today after a downward correction to the support area of 1.2281, subject to the formation of a false breakdown there, or to a rebound from a low of 1.2219, which can be updated after a good report on the state of the US labor market is released.

To open short positions on GBP/USD you need:

Bears will be waiting for an update of yesterday's high and the divergence to form, approximately from the level of 1.2365, which is now being formed on the MACD indicator. Only in this scenario, with a return to a resistance of 1.2343, can we consider short positions in the pound with the support test of 1.2281. A more important task for pound sellers will be to consolidate below 1.2281, since such a scenario will lead to a larger profit consolidation and an update of the low of 1.2219, where I recommend profit taking. If the bullish momentum remains above the resistance of 1.2343, and traders ignore the divergence, then it is best to consider new short positions after updating highs 1.2387 and 1.2427.

Signals of indicators:

Moving averages

Trade is conducted above 30 and 50 moving averages, which indicates that the pound might continue to grow.

Bollinger bands

In case the pound increases, a break of the upper boundary at 1.2270 will lead to a new wave of growth. A break of the lower boundary of the indicator at 1.2313 may strengthen the downward correction.

analytics5d7206421e91e.png

Description of indicators

  • MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow
  • MA (moving average) 30 days - green
  • MACD: Fast EMA 12, Slow EMA 26, SMA 9
  • Bollinger Bands 20
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Elliott wave analysis of GBP/JPY for September 6, 2019

analytics5d71dde02e9d7.png

GBP/JPY broke directly above short-term important resistance at 130.70 adding confidence in our preferred count, indicating a firm bottom being in place at 126.54 and a new impulsive rally in progress.

We thing that red wave i has just completed 132.16 and a minor correction in red wave ii towards 129.41 and maybe even closer to 128.75 is about to develop. On this minor correction in red wave ii is complete and new impulsive rally towards 135.40 is expected.

R3: 133.02

R2: 132.55

R1: 132.16

Pivot 131.60

S1: 131.31

S2: 130.94

S3: 130.49

Trading recommendation:

We will take profit on our final 50% long GBP position here at 131.85 and re-buy GBP near 129.50

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for September 6, 2019

analytics5d71db6ba1d78.png

EUR/JPY broke directly above short-term important resistance at 117.93 adding confidence in our preferred count, indicating a firm bottom for wave (E) at 115.86. This means a new impulsive rally should be in its infancy. Wave i likely peaked at 118.61 and we will now be looking for a correction in wave ii towards 117.24 and maybe even closer to 116.95 before turning higher again in wave iii towards 123.13.

R3: 119.70

R2: 119.00

R1: 118.61

Pivot: 118.24

S1: 117.92

S2: 117.63

S3: 117.24

Trading recommendation:

We are long 50% of our normal position from 116.80 and we will add the final 50% at 117.40.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR/USD: plan for the European session on September 6. Eurozone GDP data may put pressure on the euro, but bears need a break

To open long positions on EURUSD you need:

Yesterday, euro buyers tried to continue to grow even amid weak German data, which turned out to be a bad idea. Currently, the focus in the first half of the day will be on the eurozone GDP report for the 2nd quarter of this year, as well as a breakthrough of the level of 1.1053, which will lead to updating yesterday's high in the area of 1.1082, where I recommend taking profit. A larger growth in the morning should not be expected due to the release of important fundamental statistics from the US labor market. Under the scenario of EUR/USD decline, one can count on support in the region of 1.1021, however, it is best to open long positions from there after a false breakdown, or buy the pair for a rebound from a low of 1.0989.

To open short positions on EURUSD you need:

Euro sellers are activated after an update of resistance at 1.1053, and the formation of a false breakdown there will be the first signal to open short positions in the expectation of a return and correction to the support of 1.1021. However, a more important task, closer to the afternoon, during the release of fundamental statistics on the US labor market will be a breakthrough and consolidation below this low, which will push EUR/USD to the area of large levels 1.0989 and 1.0955, where I recommend taking profits. In the event of further growth above the resistance of 1.1053, which may occur after the release of the eurozone GDP report, it is best to count on sales on a rebound from a high of 1.1082, which kept the pair from further growth yesterday.

Signals of indicators:

Moving averages

Trade is conducted in the region of 30 and 50 moving average, which indicates market uncertainty before the release of important data.

Bollinger bands

In case of growth, the upward trend will be stopped near the upper boundary of the indicator 1.1065, while the lower border in the area of 1.1015 will support.

analytics5d72024de14d0.png

Description of indicators

  • MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow
  • MA (moving average) 30 days - green
  • MACD: Fast EMA 12, Slow EMA 26, SMA 9
  • Bollinger Bands 20
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

USD / JPY: Yen retreats until another escalation of trade war

The yen, paired with the dollar, continues to gradually become cheaper, reflecting the decline in anti-risk sentiment in the foreign exchange market. Having reached its southern peak at the end of August 104.46, the USD/JPY pair rose by almost 300 points, even despite the uncertain positions of the American currency. The thing is that the yen can go ahead only at the expense of an external fundamental background while ignoring Japanese statistics and comments by officials of the Japanese regulator. As soon as the general demand for safe-haven assets weakens, the yen demonstrates its helplessness, falling in tandem with the dollar completely dependent on American events.

analytics5d71d73d2651e.jpg

A similar situation occurred this time. Against the backdrop of another escalation of the trade war between the United States and China, as well as other factors of geopolitical tension (Brexit, the political crisis in Italy, the Iran issue and related incidents in the Persian Gulf), the yen was a favorite in the foreign exchange market. But the fundamental picture has changed quite dramatically. At the beginning of this week, many experts spoke about the hopelessness of the Chinese issue, pointing out that Beijing and Washington could not even agree on a date for the meeting - what can we say about resolving more serious disagreements on the essence of the conflict. Nevertheless, on September 1, the parties exchanged "tariff blows," and this fact only strengthened the position of skeptics regarding the futility of resolving this issue.

But contrary to these assumptions, the day before yesterday it became known that the parties agreed to hold the 13th round of Sino-US consultations. True, it will not take place in September, as previously planned, but in early October. But next week, the working groups will begin to hold "detailed discussions" with each other, preparing the necessary conditions for holding a high-level meeting - at least at the level of Vice Premier of the State Council of the PRC Liu He from the Chinese side and US Secretary of the Treasury Stephen Mnuchin from the American side .

In my opinion, this event must be treated in advance with a certain amount of skepticism, given the background of the issue. On the one hand, Trump on the eve of the election campaign, by all means, needs a victory "on the Chinese front", and it is likely that this time he will make certain concessions. On the other hand, Beijing is also waiting for the American elections, which are just over a year away (November 2020). Trump recently once again warned the Chinese not to delay the time until the presidential election, since he could win again, "and then there will be a completely different conversation with China." However, at the moment, the head of the White House is losing to his most likely opponent - Democrat Joe Biden. According to recent polls, the former US vice president is 8% ahead of the current president. In the case of a choice between Trump and Senator Vermont Bernie Sanders, the head of state also loses. If voting took place now, then Trump in this pair would be supported by 44%, while Sanders - approximately 50%. It is worth noting here that in September Biden strengthened his position in the camp of the Democrats, so he is a favorite of the primaries.

Naturally, any mistake by the incumbent president is another point to Biden's victory and the Chinese can not understand this. By the way, according to research, those US states that actually secured Trump a victory three years ago were most economically affected by the trade war - in fact, "thanks" to their chosen one. Will they repeat this mistake next year? In other words, there is a reason to believe Beijing this time will not make significant concessions to Washington; Thereby forcing Trump to either meet the PRC or continue the trade war - to the detriment of his country's economy.

However, the market often lives on today. Therefore, the news of the upcoming negotiations allowed USD/JPY bulls to approach the resistance level of 107.10 (the upper line of the BB indicator on the daily chart). This level will surely be overcome, especially if today's Nonpharma enter the "green zone". In general, the pair has the growth potential around 108.80, which is the upper border of the Kumo cloud on D1. This is a kind of price "ceiling" for the USD/JPY pair, however, the price has not risen above this level because of a local nature since May of this year.

analytics5d71d72a11a4b.jpg

Thus, at the moment, the pair has long positions in priority in the medium term but it is better to open trade orders after the release of data on the US labor market. The dollar may react too sharply to negative trends, in the light of recent comments by some Fed officials who called for a 50-point reduction in interest rates. It should also be noted that Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will speak at 4 hours after the Nonfarm today. It can mitigate possible optimism after the release if it focuses on the consequences of the global trade conflict in the context of further actions of the regulator. In other words, the American session on Friday promises to be boring: the dollar today can either receive substantial support or again fall under a wave of sales. The yen in turn. In turn, the yen is now completely dependent on the greenback – until Beijing and Washington again "beat the pots," which I personally do not doubt for a second.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP/USD. September 5. Results of the day. The defeat of Johnson, hard Brexit's main supporter, is the best medicine for the

4-hour timeframe

analytics5d71fe8ccdd89.png

Amplitude of the last 5 days (high-low): 86p - 139p - 147p - 176p - 144p.

Average volatility over the past 5 days: 138p (high).

Over the past weeks or even months, we have written almost every day that there is nothing surprising in another fall in the pound. The country was rushing at full speed to meet the hard Brexit, beginning on July 23, when the name of the new prime minister who replaced Theresa May was officially announced. However, a month before July 23, it was clear that it was Boris Johnson who would win the election, with such ease he went through every round of elections. Since Johnson from the very beginning, even before the election, actively supported Brexit at all costs, he cannot be blamed for hypocrisy or lies. From the very beginning, Boris Johnson stated that the country should leave the EU on time on October 31, and it does not matter whether it was with or without a "deal". So what did the Parliament want from its prime minister? In order for him to change his entire policy within a month on the most important and pressing issue for the whole of Great Britain in the last three years? Indeed, one might say that Boris Johnson "went too far", trying to force the hard Brexit through the Parliament. He sent MPs on vacation, threatened a re-election, threatened to expel those deputies who would not support his initiative from the party and eventually lost. Johnson clearly did not expect that such a number of deputies (obviously more than half of the Parliament) would not only express their dissatisfaction with his decisions, but would also declare an almost open war on the prime minister. Now Brexit has been postponed to January 31, and there will be no re-election. Boris Johnson can only follow in Theresa May's footsteps and try to negotiate an agreement with the EU leaders, since Parliament will not approve of the hard Brexit, and Johnson will not be able to send Parliament on vacation every three months.

As for the British Parliament itself, it can be said that it also outplayed itself. What did MPs expect from Johnson? Why did the Conservatives choose a leader at all, even if not everyone within the party supported his initiatives? The first session of Parliament after the holidays ended with a free and quiet exit of about 20 members of the Conservative party from its composition. Even Boris Johnson's own brother, who holds a post in Parliament and is the minister for universities and science, has refused his position and is about to resign. If the majority of deputies believes that Brexit should be as soft as possible, with a "deal", why choose Johnson, who never supported such an option. All these questions will remain unanswered, the UK will remain in the European Union at least until February 2020, the pound will remain in limbo until that time.

The technical picture of the pound/dollar pair is encouraging. There is a strong signal to buy the "Golden cross", so now the trend is upward. However, today we can expect a downward correction, as the pound grew non-stop for three days. Today, a rather voluminous package of macroeconomic information in the US will be released. If it is upbeat, then the strengthening of the dollar is very likely.

In addition to the technical picture, fundamental data and the time of their release should also be taken into account.

Explanation of the illustration:

Ichimoku indicator:

Tenkan-sen is the red line.

Kijun-sen is the blue line.

Senkou Span A - light brown dotted line.

Senkou Span B - light purple dashed line.

Chikou Span - green line.

Bollinger Bands Indicator:

3 yellow lines.

MACD indicator:

Red line and bar graph with white bars in the indicator window.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of ETH/USD for 06/09/2019

Crypto Industry News:

Technology giant from Cupertino also noticed the considerable potential in "mobile payments". Apple, because we are talking about it already in 2014 launched the Apple Pay service enabling payments via smartphones.

The global expansion of the payment service from Apple has meant that since its launch, the company has become a really big player in the field of mobile payments. However, digital payments are evolving fairly quickly. So what could Apple's next step be?

Jennifer Bailey, vice president of Apple Pay, said the company is "watching" cryptographic currencies, although consumers should not expect anything soon.

"We find it interesting. In our view, they have interesting, long-term potential, but we focus primarily on what consumers are enjoying today" said Bailey in an interview at a private meeting in San Francisco.

This statement clearly illustrates that, although Apple has not been associated with any cryptocurrency project so far, the company pays attention to the technology behind bitcoin, ethereum, and other decentralized currencies.

"If you look at payment solutions via QR code, if you look at the long-term potential of the cryptographic currency, I think you will still see this change over time" - she added.

It would seem, therefore, that although Apple is currently not planning to include in its offer services related to cryptocurrency payments, as time goes by and the popularity of digital assets increases, it does not exclude such a possibility.

Technical Market Overview:

The ETH/USD pair is still has hit and reversed from the short-term descending trendline around the level of $182.00 and then made a new local low at the level of $168.60. The price went down through the technical support located at the level of $172.82. Despite the fact, that the wave Z of the overall corrective cycle might have been completed already, the bulls are not showing any strength on the market yet, which is why the price is trading below the trendline. If, however, the level of $182.00 is clearly violated, the next target for bulls is seen at the level of $187.04 and the uptrend is resumed then.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - $214.26

WR2 - $203.46

WR1 - $183.94

Weekly Pivot Point - $173.24

WS1 - $152.37

WS2 - $142.84

WS3 - $121.31

Trading Recommendations:

The best strategy in the current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is still up. All the shorter timeframe moves are being treated as a correction inside of the uptrend. The current cycle is wave 2 of the higher degree and it might have been completed, so the uptrend should resume soon. The global investors are waiting for a breakout above the level of $238.68 to confirm the resumption of the uptrend.

analytics5d71f1fc9d82c.jpg

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR/USD. September 5. Results of the day. US data stopped the euro's growth

4-hour timeframe

analytics5d71f5085504e.png

Amplitude of the last 5 days (high-low): 98p - 39p - 53p - 69p - 68p.

Average volatility over the past 5 days: 65p (average).

The EUR/USD currency pair stopped growing against the US dollar on Thursday, September 5, and started to correct against a weak upward trend. The mood of traders, which in recent days could be called "bullish", macroeconomic statistics from the United States made adjustments. We have already said that Thursday and Friday will be very important for the future prospects of the euro, since it is on these days that important reports and indices will be released in the United States that can return high demand for the greenback. On Thursday, the number of new employees in the private sector from ADP was 195,000, with a forecast of 148,000; index of business activity in the services sector and composite from Markit fell short of forecasts and both amounted to 50.7; and the most significant index of business activity in the ISM services sector significantly exceeded analysts forecasts and reached 56.4. Thus, in general, the news package can be considered absolutely positive for the US and the dollar. This explains the pair's slight decline during the US trading session. And also good for the euro, which is small.

Strong macroeconomic reports from across the ocean for the currency pair right now are the worst that could happen. Firstly, despite all the talk about a possible rate cut by the Federal Reserve, despite several interviews with members of the monetary committee, which confirmed the Fed's intention to soften monetary policy, if economic indicators are strong then there will be no sense in lowering the rate. Powell and company will not lower the rate just like that. Secondly, strong US reports alone support the US currency. Thirdly, the balance of power between the EU and the US is again shifting towards the latter. More precisely, it shifts even more. All this works against the euro.

From a technical point of view, the euro/dollar pair did not even manage to enter the Ichimoku cloud. Thus, the future growth prospects of the euro are now very doubtful. Add to this a large number of macroeconomic publications on Friday, September 6, and it becomes clear that the euro may not receive any support from this news. There will be only one important publication at the European trading session - eurozone GDP for the second quarter with a forecast of +1.1% y/y. We advise traders to focus on this report. The remaining news (US) will be analyzed in the following reviews, after the release of EU GDP.

Trading recommendations:

The EUR/USD pair started a correction against the upward trend. Thus, long positions formally currently remain relevant with goals of 1.1102 and 1.1113, but it is better to wait until the price consolidates above the Ichimoku cloud before starting to trade for growth.

In addition to the technical picture, fundamental data and the time of their release should also be taken into account.

Explanation of the illustration:

Ichimoku indicator:

Tenkan-sen is the red line.

Kijun-sen is the blue line.

Senkou Span A - light brown dotted line.

Senkou Span B - light purple dashed line.

Chikou Span - green line.

Bollinger Bands Indicator:

3 yellow lines.

MACD indicator:

Red line and bar graph with white bars in the indicator window.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of BTC/USD for 06/09/2019

Crypto Industry News:

Bitcoin's energy consumption is becoming more and more efficient despite the fact that the hashrate indicator is still reaching record levels, as new data suggests.

Data from the Statista aggregator showed that, despite the greater computing power for Bitcoin mining, less electricity is needed to power this process. According to one chart, energy consumption in July was 69.79 terawatt hours per year. In July 2018, the figure was 71.12 terawatts, and the hashrate rate was almost 60% lower than today.

Hash rate measures the overall computing power associated with processing Bitcoin transactions. In August, the indicator went through 80 hash / s quintillion, and is now almost 90 quintillion. In July 2018, this figure was about 40 quintillion.

Therefore, the data are part of the general tendency to increasing ecological awareness among miners. When Bitcoin prices increased this year, many operators announced attempts to improve performance.

A June study found that three-quarters of Bitcoin mining operations are powered by renewable energy sources. Equipment manufacturers have sought to develop new devices with greater capabilities and lower energy requirements, such as Bitmain's 7-nm Antminer, which debuted in November last year.

Technical Market Overview:

The BTC/USD pair has made a new marginal local high at the level of $10,775 after the technical resistance at the level of $10,222 has been violated. The market is still developing the local pull-back in the wave (2) and when finished a new higher high should be made with a target at the level of $11,068. The move-up is the biggest in terms of range so far, so it is quite possible that this is the wave (1) of the overall impulsive cycle up. Moreover, it means, the corrective cycle in wave 2 had been completed at the level of $9,231 and now the market resumes the uptrend. This scenario is valid as long as the level of $9,231 is not clearly violated.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - $11,528

WR2 - $11,079

WR1 - $10,223

Weekly Pivot Point - $9,753

WS1 - $8,875

WS2 - $8,358

WS3 - $7,589

Trading Recommendations:

The best strategy in the current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is still up. All the shorter timeframe moves are being treated as a correction inside of the uptrend. The larger degree WXY correction might have been completed and the market might be ready for another impulsive wave up of a higher degree. Any violation of the level of $9,231 invalidates the bullish impulsive scenario.

analytics5d71eef3843ed.jpg

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of BTC/USD for 06/09/2019

Crypto Industry News:

Bitcoin's energy consumption is becoming more and more efficient despite the fact that the hashrate indicator is still reaching record levels, as new data suggests.

Data from the Statista aggregator showed that, despite the greater computing power for Bitcoin mining, less electricity is needed to power this process. According to one chart, energy consumption in July was 69.79 terawatt hours per year. In July 2018, the figure was 71.12 terawatts, and the hashrate rate was almost 60% lower than today.

Hash rate measures the overall computing power associated with processing Bitcoin transactions. In August, the indicator went through 80 hash / s quintillion, and is now almost 90 quintillion. In July 2018, this figure was about 40 quintillion.

Therefore, the data are part of the general tendency to increasing ecological awareness among miners. When Bitcoin prices increased this year, many operators announced attempts to improve performance.

A June study found that three-quarters of Bitcoin mining operations are powered by renewable energy sources. Equipment manufacturers have sought to develop new devices with greater capabilities and lower energy requirements, such as Bitmain's 7-nm Antminer, which debuted in November last year.

Technical Market Overview:

The BTC/USD pair has made a new marginal local high at the level of $10,775 after the technical resistance at the level of $10,222 has been violated. The market is still developing the local pull-back in the wave (2) and when finished a new higher high should be made with a target at the level of $11,068. The move-up is the biggest in terms of range so far, so it is quite possible that this is the wave (1) of the overall impulsive cycle up. Moreover, it means, the corrective cycle in wave 2 had been completed at the level of $9,231 and now the market resumes the uptrend. This scenario is valid as long as the level of $9,231 is not clearly violated.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - $11,528

WR2 - $11,079

WR1 - $10,223

Weekly Pivot Point - $9,753

WS1 - $8,875

WS2 - $8,358

WS3 - $7,589

Trading Recommendations:

The best strategy in the current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is still up. All the shorter timeframe moves are being treated as a correction inside of the uptrend. The larger degree WXY correction might have been completed and the market might be ready for another impulsive wave up of a higher degree. Any violation of the level of $9,231 invalidates the bullish impulsive scenario.

analytics5d71efdfc256b.jpg

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Forecast for USD/JPY pair on September 6, 2019

USD / JPY pair

With the strongest pressure on the dollar from the currency market, the USD/JPY pair managed to show a three-day growth of 130 points. The stock market had an impact to this over the past 2 days as the S&P 500 grew by 2.40% and the Japanese Nikkei225 has added 2.84% over the past three days.

On the daily chart, the price reached the enclosed line of the rising price channel at 107.14 with fixing above the MACD line at 106.58. The Oscillator Marlin is in the growth zone of the trend. If employment indicators in the USA are not let down today, we expect further growth to the target of 108.40 towards the nested line of the downward price channel.

analytics5d71d6a97e32b.png

On a four-hour chart, the price shows steady growth above the lines of balance and MACD, and the Marlin oscillator in the growth zone. Now, bringing the price of the pair lower is a difficult task as it is necessary to fixate under the price channel line of 106.24. In the main scenario, we are waiting for continued growth.

analytics5d71d6c1b165d.png

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of GBP/USD for 06/09/2019

Technical Market Overview:

After the V-shape trend reversal pattern was made, the GBP/USD pair has made the new local high at the level of 1.2352. The market conditions are now overbought, despite the strong and positive momentum, so there might be a corrective cycle just around the corner, waiting to start. The nearest technical support is seen at the level of 1.2308 and the nearest technical resistance is seen at the level of 1.2381. The larger timeframe trend remains down.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.2411

WR2 - 1.2356

WR1 - 1.2237

Weekly Pivot Point - 1.2187

WS1 - 1.2067

WS2 - 1.2021

WS3 - 1.1902

Trading Recommendations:

The best strategy for current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is down. All upward moves will be treated as local corrections in the downtrend. In order to reverse the trend from down to up, the key level for bulls is seen at 1.2429 and it must be clearly violated. As long as the price is trading below this level, the downtrend continues towards the level of 1.2000 and below.

analytics5d71ed34be8d2.jpg

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of EUR/USD for 06/09/2019

Technical Market Overview:

The EUR/USD pair has hit 61% Fibonacci retracement located at the level of 1.1072 The new local high was made at the level of 1.1084, but it did not help bulls to carry on higher as the Bearish Engulfing pattern has been made around this level and the market reversed. If bears continue to make pressure on the market, the next target for them is seen at the level of 1.0908, which is technical support at the weekly time frame.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.1285

WR2 - 1.1224

WR1 - 1.1084

Weekly Pivot Point - 1.1025

WS1 - 1.0886

WS2 - 1.0818

WS3 - 1.0681

Trading Recommendations:

The best strategy for current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is down. All upward moves will be treated as local corrections in the downtrend. The downtrend is valid as long as it is terminated or the level of 1.1445 clearly violated. There is an Ending Diagonal price pattern visible on the larget timeframes that indicate a possible downtrend termination soon. The key short-term levels are technical support at the level of 1.0814 and the technical resistance at the level of 1.1250.

analytics5d71ebcf3286f.jpg

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Forecast for EUR/USD on September 6, 2019

EUR/USD

At the peak of growth on Thursday, the euro gained 50 points, but with the release of good US economic indicators it returned to its original position. According to the ADP private version, 195 thousand jobs were created in August against the forecast of 148 thousand, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI increased from 53.7 to 56.4, while the volume of factory orders in the US added 1.4% against an expectation of 1.0%.

analytics5d71ef7e94816.png

On the daily chart, the upper shadow of yesterday's candle reached the first target at the Fibonacci level of 123.6%, while touching the balance indicator line. The Marlin oscillator has slowed down and is still in the zone of negative numbers. This situation fully admits that after the price consolidates below the signal level of 1.1027 (August 1 low), the euro will fall to the Fibonacci level of 138.2% at the price of 1.0986, after which a new downward movement will develop. Convergence on the Marlin oscillator will run out of steam.

analytics5d71ef9493926.png

On the four-hour chart, the closest price support is the MACD line (1.1012). Accordingly, consolidating the price under 1.1027 implies a price drop below 1.1012.

Important US employment data will be released today. It is likely to set a further short-term direction for the euro. The forecast for new places in the non-agricultural sector for August is 163-164 thousand - at the level of the previous month. In general, the outlook is positive, but as it often happens, there could be surprises. The price exit above 1.1073 with weak data will open a second wind to buyers with the target of 1.1158 - to the point of coincidence of the Fibonacci level of 110.0%, the price channel line and the MACD line on the daily chart.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis: Important Intraday Levels For EUR/USD, September 06, 2019

analytics5d71c55fb559b.jpg

When the European market opens, some economic data will be released such as Revised GDP q/q, Final Employment Change q/q, Italian Retail Sales m/m, French Trade Balance, and German Industrial Production m/m. The US will also publish the economic data such as Unemployment Rate, Non-Farm Employment Change, and Average Hourly Earnings m/m, so amid the reports, the EUR/USD pair will move with medium to high volatility during this day. TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVELS: Breakout BUY Level: 1.1088. Strong Resistance: 1.1082. Original Resistance: 1.1071. Inner Sell Area: 1.1060. Target Inner Area: 1.1035. Inner Buy Area: 1.1010. Original Support: 1.0999. Strong Support: 1.0988. Breakout SELL Level: 1.0982. (Disclaimer)The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis: Important Intraday Levels for USD/JPY, September 06, 2019

analytics5d71c4e1e55f9.jpg

In Asia, Japan will release the Leading Indicators, Household Spending y/y, and Average Cash Earnings y/y. The US will also publish some economic data such as Unemployment Rate, Non-Farm Employment Change, and Average Hourly Earnings m/m. So there is a probability the USD/JPY pair will move with medium to high volatility during this day. TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVELS: Resistance.3: 107.60. Resistance. 2: 107.39. Resistance. 1: 107.18. Support. 1: 106.92. Support. 2: 106.71. Support. 3: 106.50. (Disclaimer)The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Forecast for GBP/USD on September 6, 2019

GBP/USD

The pound rose by 78 points on Thursday, reaching a peak Fibonacci price level of 200.0% on the daily chart. In fact, with a hypothetical desire for the price to turn down, this is enough, working out the 1.2381 target - the low of July 17, of course, is not required. The signal line of the Marlin Oscillator showed a downward reversal. But we can talk about a full-fledged reversal only after consolidating the price below the MACD line on the daily scale - 1.2190, which will also correspond to consolidating the price under the line of the price channel. One option for further development may be a correctional decline in the pound, in particular, on today's US employment data, after which growth will again develop above 1.2381, to the Fibonacci level of 161.8% at the price of 1.2548.

analytics5d71e8edf17ff.png

On a four-hour chart, the Marlin Oscillator is also moving down. But the market is very hot, the price is above the balance and MACD indicator lines. A very strong US employment data is the only thing that can pull down the British pound. After the price drops below 1.2190, a further decline towards the local consolidation is likely to fall into the range of 1.2077-1.2107.

analytics5d71e90335924.png

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Fractal analysis of the main currency pairs for September 6

Forecast for September 6:

Analytical review of currency pairs on the scale of H1:

analytics5d71b21bcfc37.png

For the euro / dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.1155, 1.1122, 1.1097, 1.1047, 1.1008, 1.0987, 1.0960 and 1.0926. Here, we follow the development of the ascending structure of September 3. The continuation of the movement to the top is expected after the breakdown of the level of 1.1047. In this case, the target is 1.1097. Short-term upward movement, as well as consolidation is in the range of 1.1097 - 1.1122. For the potential value for the upward trend, we consider the level of 1.1155. Upon reaching which, we expect consolidation, as well as a pullback to the bottom.

Short-term downward movement is expected in the range of 1.1008 - 1.0987. The breakdown of the last value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the target is 1.0960. This level is a key support for the upward structure. Its passage at the price will lead to the formation of a local downward structure. In this case, the first goal is 1.0926 .

The main trend is the upward structure of September 3.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.1047 Take profit: 1.1095

Buy 1.1098 Take profit: 1.1120

Sell: 1.1008 Take profit: 1.0988

Sell: 1.0985 Take profit: 1.0960

analytics5d71b1f228273.png

For the pound / dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.2460, 1.2408, 1.2351, 1.2300, 1.2266, 1.2218 and 1.2190. Here, we follow the development of the upward cycle of September 3. The continuation of the movement to the top is expected after the breakdown of the level of 1.2351. In this case, the target is 1.2408. The breakdown of which, in turn, will allow us to count on the movement to the potential target - 1.2460. Upon reaching this level, we expect a pullback to the bottom.

Short-term downward movement is expected in the range of 1.2300 - 1.2266. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the target is 1.2218. The range of 1.2218 - 1.2190 is the key support for the upward cycle.

The main trend is the upward cycle of September 3.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.2351 Take profit: 1.2406

Buy: 1.2409 Take profit: 1.2460

Sell: 1.2300 Take profit: 1.2268

Sell: 1.2264 Take profit: 1.2220

analytics5d71b237064ad.png

For the dollar / franc pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 0.9880, 0.9866, 0.9822, 0.9793, 0.9770, 0.9754 and 0.9725. Here, we are following the development of the downward structure of September 3. At the moment, the price is close to the cancellation of this structure, which requires the passage of the noise range of 0.9866 - 0.9880. The continuation of the movement to the bottom is expected after the breakdown of the level of 0.9822. In this case, the first target 0.9793. The breakdown of which, in turn, will allow you to count on moving to the level of 0.9770. Price consolidation is in the range of 0.9770 - 0.9754. For the potential value for the bottom, we consider the level of 0.9725. The movement to which is expected after the breakdown of the level of 0.9754.

The main trend is the descending structure of September 3, the stage of deep correction.

Trading recommendations:

Buy : 0.9880 Take profit: 0.9915

Buy : Take profit:

Sell: 0.9820 Take profit: 0.9795

Sell: 0.9790 Take profit: 0.9770

analytics5d71b2e91d6c6.png

For the dollar / yen pair, the key levels on the scale are : 108.12, 107.76, 107.49, 107.17, 106.80, 106.60 and 106.29. Here, we determined the subsequent goals for the top from the local ascendant structure on September 3. The continuation of the movement to the top is expected after the breakdown of the level of 107.17. In this case, the target is 107.49. Short-term upward movement, as well as consolidation is in the range of 107.49 - 107.76. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level of 108.12. Upon reaching which, we expect a pullback to the bottom.

Short-term downward movement is possibly in the range of 106.80 - 106.60. The breakdown of the last value will lead to a long correction. Here, the goal is 106.29. This level is a key support for the top.

Main trend: local upward structure from September 3.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 107.17 Take profit: 107.46

Buy : 107.50 Take profit: 107.74

Sell: 106.80 Take profit: 106.62

Sell: 106.58 Take profit: 106.30

analytics5d71b27293975.png

For the Canadian dollar / US dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.3286, 1.3259, 1.3240, 1.3212, 1.3176 and 1.3155. Here, the price forms a pronounced medium-term downward structure from September 3. The continuation of the movement to the bottom is expected after the price passes the noise range 1.3212 - 1.3198. In this case, the target is 1.3176. For the potential value for the bottom, we consider the level of 1.3155. Before this value, we expect a pronounced structure of the initial conditions.

Short-term upward movement is possibly in the range of 1.3240 - 1.3259. The breakdown of the last value will lead to a long correction. Here, the target is 1.3286. This level is a key support for the upward structure.

The main trend is the formation of a medium-term downward structure from September 3.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.3240 Take profit: 1.3257

Buy : 1.3261 Take profit: 1.3286

Sell: 1.3198 Take profit: 1.3176

Sell: 1.3174 Take profit: 1.3155

analytics5d71b2921be5e.png

For the Australian dollar / US dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are : 0.6884, 0.6867, 0.6839, 0.6825, 0.6807, 0.6795, 0.6781 and 0.6767. Here, we follow the development of the ascending structure of September 3. Short-term upward movement is expected in the range of 0.6825 - 0.6839. The breakdown of the last value should be accompanied by a pronounced upward movement. Here, the target is 0.6867. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level of 0.6884. Upon reaching which, we expect consolidation, as well as a pullback to the bottom.

Short-term downward movement is possibly in the range of 0.6807 - 0.6795. The breakdown of the last value will lead to a long correction. Here, the potential target is 0.6781. This level is a key support for the top. Its breakdown will lead to the formation of initial conditions for the downward cycle. In this case, the potential target will be 0.6767.

The main trend is the upward structure of September 3.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 0.6840 Take profit: 0.6865

Buy: 0.6868 Take profit: 0.6882

Sell : 0.6807 Take profit : 0.6796

Sell: 0.6793 Take profit: 0.6783

analytics5d71b2ac435a7.png

For the euro / yen pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 119.60, 119.05, 118.78, 118.34, 117.81, 117.53 and 117.08. Here, we follow the development of the ascending structure of September 3. The continuation of the movement to the top is expected after the breakdown of the level of 118.34. In this case, the target is 118.78. Short-term upward movement, as well as consolidation is in the range of 118.78 - 119.05. The breakdown of the level of 119.05 should be accompanied by a pronounced upward movement towards a potential target - 119.60. We expect a pullback from this level to the bottom.

Short-term downward movement is expected in the range of 117.81 - 117.53. The breakdown of the last value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the goal is 117.08. This level is a key support for the upward structure.

The main trend is the upward cycle of September 3.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 118.36 Take profit: 118.76

Buy: 118.78 Take profit: 119.05

Sell: 117.80 Take profit: 117.55

Sell: 117.50 Take profit: 117.10

analytics5d71b2ce50e8e.png

For the pound / yen pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are : 134.74, 134.10, 132.94, 132.18, 131.36, 130.71 and 129.70. Here, we continue to monitor the development of the upward cycle of September 3. Short-term upward movement is expected in the range of 132.18 - 132.94. The breakdown of the last value should be accompanied by a pronounced upward movement. Here, the target is 134.10. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level of 134.74. Upon reaching which, we expect consolidation, as well as a pullback to the bottom.

Short-term downward movement is possibly in the range of 131.36 - 130.71. The breakdown of the last value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the goal is 129.70. This level is a key support for the upward structure.

The main trend is the upward structure of September 3.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 132.20 Take profit: 132.90

Buy: 132.98 Take profit: 134.10

Sell: 131.36 Take profit: 130.74

Sell: 130.68 Take profit: 129.80

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Taking profit on USD/JPY and GOLD.

analytics5d71a261679b1.png

This is not a random number, because the method of "hunting for stops" involves work tied to the mistakes of bank traders. The average amount of stops which makes these 100p. And you can easily check it by looking at the open positions of banks online right now. Thus, we still have positions in crosses - which are also all in the "plus".

In addition, fix part of the profit from the position on gold left overnight + 430p, and hold the last part at the level of 1500:

analytics5d71254d9e3ed.png

Tomorrow is an important day for currency traders. I have noticed many times that if you give out before non-game plus - you have to leave, because the news is extremely unpredictable. Therefore, I prefer to trade after news trends, and for this, you need to have patience. The best choice for traders to trade on the USD news (if you are not a stop hunter) is to sit them in crosses. And fortunately, our diversification tactics make this easy to do. We continue to hold positive positions on AUD/CHF or NZD/CHF according to the recommendations given earlier.

Good luck in the trading and see you at the next reviews!

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Pound will rise in price by 6%, a strong drop in the yen is unlikely

analytics5d719bd38218f.jpg

Markets currently respond positively to news about upcoming trade negotiations. They like political events in the UK that exclude the "hard" Brexit at the end of October.

US and China

Chinese and American authorities once again agreed to sit at the negotiating table. Obviously, both sides understand that such an irrational trade war is a thing outside the modern global economy. It causes significant harm not only to the two giants, but to the world as a whole.

It seems that the US president will have to make some concessions to China. To procrastinate and look for ways for a better deal is becoming an extremely dangerous business. Time plays against the US. The Chinese have other trading partners. In addition, China's government's reliance on domestic consumption is paying off and bearing fruit. The huge domestic market is quite capable of supporting the national economy.

Upbeat traders began to dump defensive assets, the dollar in conjunction with the yen rose sharply. Negotiating news is certainly good. However, it would be nice to see progress. In this regard, the growth of quotations is likely to be limited to 107. Market participants can sell the USD/JPY pair to consolidate profits or create new short positions if the dollar reaches 107 yen, State Street believes.

analytics5d719be8425ba.png

It is premature now to say that the situation in Hong Kong has improved. In addition, Britain is still in chaos due to Brexit.

Great Britain

Judging by recent events, Brexit may not take place without a deal, as Boris Johnson has lost control of the situation. Legislators have blocked the possibility of leaving the EU without a deal and the general election scenario. There is reason for optimism, especially for pound traders. The British currency is experiencing the best points against the dollar over the past 5 months. But it is not so simple. After losing two fights, the British prime minister may resort to other methods to conduct the election.

An attempt to circumvent a law requiring the approval of early elections by a majority vote is not ruled out. It is unlikely, but still, Johnson could declare a vote of no confidence in his government, and then urge his members of Parliament to abstain from voting.

If the bill to ban the "hard" Brexit is approved next week, the Labour Party will agree to the elections, which will be held October 15 or before the end of the year, according to J.P. Morgan

According to forecasts by Daiwa analysts, Johnson will achieve the repeal of the law on the prohibition of exit without a deal if he wins the election by October 31. It is worth noting that the Conservative Party leads in opinion polls.

However, elections can be held in November. With this scenario developing, the new British prime minister will not be able to fulfill his promise to the people of Britain - to leave the EU at the end of October "no matter what."

Goldman Sachs raised the estimate of the probability of a hard Brexit from 20% to 25%, and the assessment of its absence was lowered from 35% to 30%. The basic scenario remains, in which a close version of the existing deal will be approved by the House of Commons, bank analysts said.

Reuters poll

According to the results of the survey conducted before the vote on Tuesday, sterling should grow against the euro within a month after the exit with the conclusion of the deal. On Thursday, the EUR/GBP quotes were located at 89.5, and if the deal is signed, they will fall to 85–88.

analytics5d719d9d682d5.png

The British currency should recover after October 31 if it is possible to avoid an exit without a deal. The implementation of a scenario that minimizes the gap with the EU in economic terms is also positive.

If Johnson's strategy "shoots" and the "divorce proceedings" ends without a deal, the euro may well reach parity with the pound. In this case, the forecast for the pair is at 95-100. It is worth noting that the two currencies have never reached parity since the introduction of the euro in early 1999.

Over the next 6 months, sterling will reach $1.25 against the dollar, respondents said. In a year, the rate will rise to $1.30.

analytics5d719db12e487.png

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Euro drops to new lows against the pound, but the joy will be short-lived

analytics5d719adc3eed5.png

EUR/GBP fell below a critical level of 0.90. The positive attitude towards the British pound makes the EUR/GBP pair forget about further growth and break through the critical support level of 0.90 in order to move lower to new two-month lows. The euro weakened amid optimism over Brexit and is falling for the third consecutive session in response to an obvious change in sentiment against the British pound. The currency is recovering amid growing optimism, especially after British lawmakers voted to postpone Brexit's deadline and the government did not approve a bill calling for a general election on October 15. Nevertheless, the scenario of a "hard" Brexit without a deal is still under consideration, which means that soon political instability will return to the UK.

analytics5d719af97a453.jpg

What to expect from GBP? The renewed growth momentum is pushing the currency to new heights in the light of recent political events in the UK. Nevertheless, according to forecasts, sterling will remain under pressure, as political uncertainty has not disappeared, and the likelihood of general elections is also high, and this is only a matter of time. On the other hand, the Bank of England remains "silent" in relation to Brexit and its potential consequences. It is worth recalling that at its last meeting, the central bank refused to include the likelihood of a "hard divorce" scenario in its forecasts.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com