AUD/USD. Australia quarantines, aussie ignores negativity

The Reserve Bank of Australia published a quarterly report on monetary policy - in this document, central bank economists analyze in detail the current economic conditions and provide forecasts for both the Australian and global economies. Given the recent events, traders did not expect to see any optimistic notes in this report. The regulator was extremely pessimistic about the current situation and immediate prospects, having announced the first recession in 30 years. Nevertheless, today's release was able to support the Australian currency.

To the surprise of traders, the RBA's rhetoric was, so to speak, "black and white" in nature - the essence of the spring report boils down to the fact that following the black bar for Australia will come white and the country's economy will recover quite quickly. In other words, today's release resembled a rhetorical question - "is the glass half full or empty"? Traders could focus on assessments of the current situation and immediate prospects, on the anti-records of the Australian economy. But instead, they seized on encouraging theses that relate to more distant prospects, namely the second half of this year. According to the Australian regulator, the country's economy will decline by eight percent by the end of June, and then will recover at an accelerated pace. The RBA report said that "the initial stages of this restoration may begin quite soon, as the authorities are gradually weakening restrictive quarantine measures. But it will take extra time to fully recover."

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In other words, according to central bank economists, almost all key indicators will fall until June - first of all, labor market indicators that will draw salaries, consumer activity, and ultimately inflation. In general, the report published today largely repeated the theses that were voiced following the results of the May meeting of the RBA. The text of the accompanying statement was also full of pessimistic forecasts - in particular, the central bank predicted an increase in unemployment to 10 percent, a significant decrease in production in the first half of this year and a significant slowdown in inflation. According to RBA estimates, inflation will be below the target two percent level over the course of "several years".

Nevertheless, the Australian dollar remains optimistic - the aussie showed positive dynamics after the announcement of the results of the May meeting, and now, after the release of the RBA quarterly report. The AUD/USD pair has consolidated in the 65th figure and is now precipitating the nearest resistance level of 0.6560 (the upper line of the BB indicator on the daily chart). As you can see, traders actually ignore negative medium-term forecasts, focusing on other nuances.

For example, the aussie strengthened at the beginning of this week due to the fact that the Reserve Bank of Australia announced the preservation of a wait-and-see position and announced a reduction in the volume and frequency of bond purchases. Although the RBA emphasized that the interest rate will not be raised until the key inflation indicators and the level of employment reach their target levels. But this fact did not prevent the bulls from moving up.

Traders appreciated today's release only in terms of longer-term prospects. Also, do not forget that the data on Australian inflation growth published at the beginning of last week came out in the green zone, surprising the market participants. In annual terms, the general consumer price index crossed the 2 percent mark and reached 2.2%. In quarterly terms, the indicator decreased, but again, it turned out to be better than expected (decline to 0.3% with a forecast of 0.1%). Moreover, core inflation showed a positive trend, rising both in monthly and annual terms. In addition, the latest Australian labor market data also came out better than expected - instead of rising unemployment to 5.4%, the rate rose to 5.2%; instead of a decline in the number of employees to -30 thousand, the indicator has grown to almost 6 thousand (though these figures reflect only the first two weeks of March, while strict quarantine was introduced in the country in the second half of the month before last).

Thus, AUD/USD buyers still hope that key macroeconomic indicators will show a less deep recession relative to RBA forecasts and the country's economy will recover at a faster pace. The latest releases so far are on the side of the bulls.

The prime minister also provided additional support to the Australian currency. Today, Scott Morrison announced that Australia will remove most of the epidemiological restrictions "in the coming months." They plan to remove quarantine barriers in three stages - and above all, the authorities will focus on restoring jobs. In addition, the government is already removing some social restrictions: Australians will again be able to visit the pools, go to small cafes and restaurants and arrange holidays for a small number of guests.

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To summarize, we can conclude that the pair retains the potential for further growth. Trading decisions should be made after the publication of American Nonfarms - this is a rather important release, which can either strengthen or weaken the position of the greenback. But in general, the pair's priority is behind long positions. The first target of the upward movement is the price of 0.6560 (the upper line of the BB indicator). A more ambitious goal is slightly higher - this is the "round" mark of 0.6600. If Nonfarms does not provoke a dollar rally, the pair may test the indicated price barrier next week.

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Bitcoin Price Movement For May 08, 2020

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On the 4-hour chart, Bitcoin is now in the Liquidity Void Area. The price looks to be willing to reach the Monthly BUY Stop Order Liquidity Pool at $10,440.80. From the technical viewpoint, this condition has been already confirmed by the CCI (30). So, the price has been already moving above the 100 level. This scenario will be canceled if Bitcoin retraces downwards below $8,969.35.

(Disclaimer)

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Ripple Price Movement For May 08, 2020

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Today, according to the 4-hour chart, Ripple looks like ready to hit the nearest Liquidity Pool at 0.2243 as the first target and 0.2331 as the second target. From the technical viewpoint, this condition has been already confirmed by the CCI (30). So, the price has been already moving above the -100 and 0 levels. This scenario will be canceled if the Ripple retraces downwards below the level of 0.2048.

(Disclaimer)

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GBPUSD: plan for the European session on May 8 (analysis of yesterday's deals). Pound buyers have actively returned to the

To open long positions on GBP/USD, you need:

To get started, let's look at the deals that were on the British pound yesterday afternoon. I paid attention to the probability of a breakout 1.2342 and recommended selling from there. We see how buyers tried to stop the pound from falling near the 1.2300 level, which led to a slight upward rebound, but a second test led to a breakout, which pushed the pound to a larger support of 1.2275, from which I recommended opening long positions immediately for a rebound yesterday, which brought about 100 points of profit within the day. Consolidation at 1.2342 in the middle of the US session was also an additional signal to buy. Currently, buyers of the pound are focused on resistance 1.2411, on which the further growth of the pair depends. Consolidating in this range in the afternoon will be a signal to open new long positions in the expectation of continued correction of GBP/USD in the area of highs 1.2446 and 1.2478, where I recommend taking profits. In case the pound falls in the morning, it is best to return to long positions only after forming a false breakout in the support area of 1.2353, where the moving averages also goes, but I recommend buying the pair immediately for a rebound only from a low of 1.2305, counting on a correction of 30 -35 points inside the day.

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To open short positions on GBP/USD you need:

Important fundamental data on the US labor market will be released today, however, its impact on the pair will be insignificant, as the current reduction in the number of people employed in the United States by more than 20 million has already been taken into account. Pound sellers need to protect the resistance of 1.2411, where forming a false breakout will be a direct signal to open short positions while expecting GBP/USD to fall to a low of 1.2353. Consolidation below this level will certainly lead to the demolition of a number of stop orders of buyers and the pound's sharp fall to areas 1.2305 and 1.2266, where I recommend taking profits. In the absence of seller activity in the resistance area of 1.2411, it is best to postpone short positions until larger highs are updated in the areas of 1.2446 and 1.2478, from where you can sell immediately for a rebound in the expectation of a decrease in the pair by 20-30 points by the end of the day.

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Signals of indicators:

Moving averages

Trading is conducted above 30 and 50 moving average, which indicates the likelihood of further forming an upward correction.

Note: The period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the hourly chart H1 and differs from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the daily chart D1.

Bollinger bands

A break of the upper border of the indicator in the region of 1.2425 will lead to a new bullish momentum. If the pair decreases, you can buy after testing the average border of the indicator in the region of 1.2353 or from its lower border in the region of 1.2305.

Description of indicators

  • Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. The graph is marked in yellow.
  • Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. The graph is marked in green.
  • MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence / Divergence - Moving Average Convergence / Divergence). Fast EMA period 12. Slow EMA period 26. SMA period 9.
  • Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20.
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EUR/USD: plan for the European session on May 8 (analysis of transactions). Non-Farm Employment Change report will not be

To open long positions on EUR/USD, you need:

To get started, let's go over yesterday's deals that were formed in the afternoon. I have repeatedly paid attention to the breakout of support 1.0787 and counted on further movement down from this level. If you look at the 5-minute chart, you can see how the bears manage to break below 1.0787 and even make a test from bottom to top on the volume, which allows us to expect the euro's fall. However, the repeated return to the day's low dampened the bearish momentum, as a result of which the pair returned to 1.0787, from which the euro sharply rose. Currently, all attention will be focused on the report Non-Farm Employment Change and the speech of the President of the European Central Bank Christine Lagarde. If the bulls manage to form a false breakout in the support area of 1.0826 in the morning, then you can look at long positions in continuing growth. If there is no activity at the 1.0826 area, it is best to postpone purchases until the test of a larger low of 1.0771, counting on a correction of 30-35 points within the day. An equally important goal of buyers to maintain an upward correction will be updating the high of 1.0882, consolidating above which will lead to larger growth in the area of 1.0923, where I recommend taking profits.

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To open short positions on EUR USD you need:

The US labor market data is unlikely to lead to serious changes in the market, since similar statistics have recently been ignored by traders. If the report does not go beyond the forecasts of economists, trade may remain in the side channel. The bears will try to return to 1.0826 in the first half of the day, but I recommend opening short positions from it only after consolidating below this range with a test, for example, which I outlined yesterday on the 5-minute chart. In this scenario, the key weekly target for sellers will be the low of 1.0771, where I recommend taking profits. If the bulls continue to push the market up, it is best to return to short positions only on the rebound from the resistance of 1.0882 or sell EUR/USD from a larger high of 1.0923 while expecting a decrease of 30-35 points within the day.

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Signals of indicators:

Moving averages

Trading is above 30 and 50 moving averages, which indicates the likelihood of the completion of a bearish impulse.

Note: The period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the hourly chart H1 and differs from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the daily chart D1.

Bollinger bands

A break of the upper border of the indicator in the region of 1.0875 can lead to a sharp increase in the euro. In case the pair falls, the average border of the indicator in the area of 1.0826 will act as support, and you can buy the euro by rebounding from the lower border in the area of 1.0780.

Description of indicators

  • Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. The graph is marked in yellow.
  • Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. The graph is marked in green.
  • MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence / Divergence - Moving Average Convergence / Divergence). Fast EMA period 12. Slow EMA period 26. SMA period 9.
  • Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20.
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GOLD Bullish Engulfing Precedes Strong Momentum!

The Gold price has confirmed once again that it could increase further in the weeks ahead after the minor consolidation. It is trading at $1,718 level and is still located within a chart pattern, but yesterday's candle has signaled a potential upside breakout and further growth. The price has rallied as the USD has depreciated versus its rivals in the short term.

The global risk caused by the COVID-19 crisis and the trade tensions between the US and China could push the gold price towards new highs soon. The US is to release the NFP, Unemployment Rate, and the Average Hourly Earnings today, Gold will explode if the figures come in worse than expected.

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The yellow metal has developed a bullish engulfing and today it could validate this pattern and strong bullish momentum. Gold has made another false breakdown below the inside sliding line (SL) of the ascending pitchfork which represents strong dynamic support and now it could breakout from the minor triangle.

The price is trading above the $1,700 level, a valid breakout from this minor pattern will validate a further increase. The next upside targets are seen at the R1 ($1,767), upper median line (UML), $1,800 level, and higher at the R2 (1848).

  • GOLD TRADING RECOMMENDATIONS

The gold price is into an uptrend, the current sideways movement could give us a great chance to buy it as well. A valid breakout from the minor triangle will bring a long opportunity, R1 ($1,767), the upper median line (UML), $1,800 level, and the R2 ($1,848) level could be used as near term potential targets. However, a valid breakout above the upper median line (UML) could validate a larger increase towards the $1,900 psychological level and towards the R3 ($1,949) level.

Gold is bullish as long as the price is traded above the 1,700 - 1,666 area, I believe that only a drop below the Pivot Point ($1,666) and below the median line (ML) will bring a short opportunity and will confirm a corrective phase.

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Fractal analysis of Gold, Silver, Oil and Natural Gas

Forecast for May 8:

Analytical review in H1 scale:

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For Gold, the main key levels on the H1 scale are: 1753.89, 1740.22, 1731.37, 1718.34, 1707.86, 1701.25 and 1691.00. Here, we continue to monitor the ascending structure of May 1. The continuation of the upward movement is expected after the breakdown of the level of 1718.34. In this case, the target is 1731.37. A short-term upward movement, as well as consolidation is in the range of 1731.37 - 1740.22. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level of 1753.89. Upon reaching which, we expect a downward pullback.

Short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 1707.86 - 1701.25. The breakdown of the last level will lead to an in-depth correction. In this case, the target is 1691.00.

The main trend is the upward structure of May 1

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1719.00 Take profit: 1730.00

Buy: 1732.00 Take profit: 1740.00

Sell: 1707.00 Take profit: 1702.00

Sell: 1700.00 Take profit: 1693.00

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For Oil, the main key levels on the H1 scale are: 32.92, 28.69, 26.32, 23.71, 22.34, 20.00 and 17.32. Here, we are following the development of the ascending structure of April 20. The continuation of the upward movement is expected after the breakdown of the level of 26.32. In this case, the goal is 28.69. Price consolidation is near this level. As a potential value for the ascending structure, we consider the level of 32.92. Upon reaching which, we expect a downward pullback.

A short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 23.71 - 22.34. The breakdown of the last level will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the target is 20.00. This level is a key support for the top. The price passing this level will lead to the formation of initial conditions for the downward cycle. In this case, the potential goal is 17.32.

The main trend is the upward structure of April 20

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 26.32 Take profit: 28.60

Buy: 28.80 Take profit: 31.85

Sell: 23.71 Take profit: 22.40

Sell: 22.28 Take profit: 20.50

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For Silver, the main key levels on the H1 scale are: 16.11, 15.91, 15.64, 15.44, 15.31, 15.20 and 15.01. Here, the price registered the expressed potential for the upward cycle of May 5. The continuation of the upward movement is expected after the breakdown of the level of 15.44. In this case, the target of 15.64. Price consolidation is near this level. The breakdown of the level of 15.64 will lead to a pronounced movement. In this case, the target is 15.91. For the potential value for the top, we consider level 16.11. Upon reaching which, we expect consolidation, as well as a downward pullback.

A short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 15.31 - 15.20. The breakdown of the last level will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the goal is 15.01. This level is a key support for the upward trend.

The main trend is the upward structure of May 5

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 15.45 Take profit: 15.62

Buy: 15.65 Take profit: 15.90

Sell: 15.31 Take profit: 15.21

Sell: 15.19 Take profit: 15.03

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For Natural Gas, the main key levels on the H1 scale are: 2.363, 2.302, 2.192, 2.068, 2.008, 1.882, 1.815, 1.724 and 1.663. Here, we are following the development of the upward structure from April 27. At the moment, the price is in correction from this structure and has formed a pronounced potential for a downward movement. Short-term downward movement is expected in the range of 1.882 - 1.815. The breakdown of the last level should be accompanied by a pronounced downward movement to the level of 1.724. For the potential value for the bottom, we consider the level of 1.663.

A short-term upward movement is possible in the range of 2.008 - 2.068. The breakdown of the last level will have the subsequent development of an upward trend. In this case, the first potential target is 2.192.

The main trend is the rising structure of April 27, the stage of deep correction.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 2.008 Take profit: 2.064

Buy: 2.075 Take profit: 2.190

Sell: 1.880 Take profit: 1.820

Sell: 1.805 Take profit: 1.740

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Indicator analysis. Daily review on GBP / USD for May 8, 2020

On Thursday, the pair first traded upward and tested the 21 average EMA at 1.2418 (presented in a black thin line), then after that, a downward pullback movement took place where the pair tested the lower border of the Bollinger line indicator at 1.2266 ( presented in a blue dashed line curve). Today, an upward trend is likely to take place. Economic calendar news for the dollar is expected at 12:30 UTC.

Trend analysis (Fig. 1).

Today, an upward trend is likely to take place from the level of 1.2363 (closing of yesterday's candle) with a target at 1.2447 - a 50% pullback level (presented in a red dashed line). If this level is reached, the price may continue to move upward with a target at 1.2495 - a 61.8% retracement level (presented in a red dashed line).

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Fig. 1 (daily chart).

Comprehensive analysis:

- Indicator analysis - up;

- Fibonacci levels - up;

- Volumes - up;

- Candlestick analysis - up;

- Trend analysis - up;

- Bollinger Lines - up;

- Weekly schedule - up.

General conclusion:

Today, the price may move upward with a target at 1.2495 - a 61.8% retracement level (presented in a red dashed line).

Another possible scenario is a bearish trend from 1.2400 - a 38.2% retracement level (presented in a red dashed line) with a target at 1.2258 - the lower border of the Bollinger line indicator (presented in a blue dashed line curve).

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Indicator analysis. Daily review on EUR / USD for May 8, 2020

Trend analysis (Fig. 1).

Today, the downward trend is likely to continue from the level of 1.0861 - a 50% pullback level (presented in a blue dashed line) with a target at the lower fractal 1.0768 (presented in a red dashed line). Upon reaching this level, the price may continue to move downward with the target at the next lower fractal 1.0728 (presented in a red dashed line).

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Fig. 1 (daily chart).

Comprehensive analysis:

- Indicator analysis - down;

- Fibonacci levels - down;

- Volumes - down;

- Candlestick analysis - up;

- Trend analysis - neutral;

- Bollinger Lines - down;

- Weekly schedule - down.

General conclusion:

Today, the price may continue to move downward with the target at the lower fractal 1.0728 (presented in a red dashed line).

Another possible scenario is a bullish trend from the level of 1.0829 - a 38.2% retracement level (presented in a blue dashed line) with a target at 1.0892 - a 61.8% retracement level (presented in a blue dashed line).

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Fractal analysis of the main currency pairs for May 8

Forecast for May 8:

Analytical review of currency pairs on the scale of H1:

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For the euro / dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.0945, 1.0922, 1.0886, 1.0859, 1.0824, 1.0798, 1.0766 and 1.0728. Here, the price forms the potential for the upward movement of May 7. Short-term upward movement is expected in the range of 1.0859 - 1.0886. The breakdown of the last level will lead to a pronounced movement. In this case, the target is 1.0922. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level of 1.0945. Upon reaching which, we expect consolidation, as well as a downward pullback.

A short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 1.0824 - 1.0798. The breakdown of the last level will favor the development of a downward trend from May 1. In this case, the first target is 1.0766. For the potential value for the bottom, we consider the level of 1.0728.

The main trend is the downward cycle of May 1, the formation of potential for the top.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.0860 Take profit: 1.0884

Buy: 1.0887 Take profit: 1.0920

Sell: 1.0824 Take profit: 1.0800

Sell: 1.0796 Take profit: 1.0766

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For the pound / dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.2494, 1.2463, 1.2420. 1.2352, 1.2312, 1.2264, 1.2226 and 1.2153. Here, the price forms the potential for the top of May 7 in the correction from the downward structure. The continuation of the upward movement is expected after the breakdown of the level of 1.2420. In this case, the target is 1.2463. For the potential value, we consider the level of 1.2494. We expect the design of expressed initial conditions to this level.

A short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 1.2352 - 1.2312. The breakdown of the last level will lead to the development of a downward trend. In this case, the first target is 1.2264. Short-term downward movement, as well as consolidation is in the range of 1.2264 - 1.2226. For the potential value for the bottom, we consider the level of 1.2153. Upon reaching which, we expect an upward pullback.

The main trend is the downward cycle of April 30, the formation of potential for the top of May 7.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.2420 Take profit: 1.2460

Buy: 1.2463 Take profit: 1.2492

Sell: 1.2350 Take profit: 1.2314

Sell: 1.2310 Take profit: 1.2265

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For the dollar / franc pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 0.9819, 0.9785, 0.9758, 0.9741, 0.9709, 0.9687, 0.9660 and 0.9642. Here, the price is in the correction zone from the upward structure on May 1. The continuation of the downward movement is expected after the breakdown of the level of 0.9709. In this case, the target is 0.9687. Price consolidation is in this range and from here we expect a key upward reversal. The breakdown of the level of 0.9687 should be accompanied by the development of pronounced movement to the bottom. Here, the target is 0.9660. For the potential value for the downward trend, we consider the level of 0.9642.

A short-term upward movement is possible in the range of 0.9741 - 0.9758. The breakdown of the last level will have the subsequent development of an upward trend. Here, the first target is 0.9785. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level of 0.9819.

The main trend is the upward cycle from May 1, the correction stage

Trading recommendations:

Buy : 0.9741 Take profit: 0.9756

Buy : 0.9760 Take profit: 0.9785

Sell: 0.9709 Take profit: 0.9688

Sell: 0.9685 Take profit: 0.9662

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For the dollar / yen pair, the key levels on the scale are : 106.89, 106.58, 106.42, 106.13, 105.80 and 105.52. Here, we are following the downward structure from April 30. At the moment, the price is in the correction zone and forms the potential for the top of May 6. The continuation of the downward movement is expected after the breakdown of the level of 106.13. In this case, the target is 105.80. Price consolidation is near this level. For the potential value for the bottom, we consider the level of 105.52. Upon reaching which, we expect an upward pullback.

A short-term upward movement is possible in the range of 106.42 - 106.58. The breakdown of the last level will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the target is 106.89. This level is a key support for the bottom.

The main trend: the downward cycle of April 30

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 106.42 Take profit: 106.57

Buy : 106.60 Take profit: 106.87

Sell: 106.11 Take profit: 105.82

Sell: 105.78 Take profit: 105.54

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For the Canadian dollar / US dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.4061, 1.4009, 1.3971, 1.3917, 1.3867, 1.3786 and 1.3729. Here, the development of the upward trend has been canceled and at the moment, we are following the formation of the downward structure of May 7. Short-term downward movement is expected after the breakdown of the level of 1.3917. In this case, the target is 1.3867. Price consolidation is near this level. The breakdown of the level of 1.3865 will lead to the development of a pronounced downward movement. In this case, the target is 1.3786. We consider the level of 1.3729 to be a potential value for the downward trend. Upon reaching which, we expect consolidation, as well as a pullback to correction.

A short-term upward movement is possible in the range of 1.3971 - 1.4009. The breakdown of the last level will lead to an in-depth correction. In this case, the target is 1.4061.

The main trend is the descending structure of May 7

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.3971 Take profit: 1.4006

Buy : 1.4012 Take profit: 1.4060

Sell: 1.3915 Take profit: 1.3870

Sell: 1.3865 Take profit: 1.3790

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For the Australian dollar / US dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are : 0.6671, 0.6628, 0.6608, 0.6571, 0.6547, 0.6508, 0.6477 and 0.6435. Here, we are following the development of the ascending structure of May 7. Short-term upward movement is expected in the range of 0.6547 - 0.657. The breakdown of the last level should be accompanied by a pronounced upward movement. In this case, the target is 0.6608. Price consolidation is in the range of 0.6608 - 0.6628. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level of 0.6671. Upon reaching which, we expect a downward pullback.

A short-term downward movement is expected in the range of 0.6508 - 0.6477. The breakdown of the last level will lead to an in-depth correction. In this case, the potential target is 0. 6435. This level is a key support for the top.

The main trend is the upward structure of May 7

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 0.6547 Take profit: 0.6570

Buy: 0.6574 Take profit: 0.6608

Sell : 0.6508 Take profit : 0.6480

Sell: 0.6475 Take profit: 0.6440

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For the euro / yen pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 115.79, 115.21, 114.43, 114.04 and 112.92. Here, we are following the development of the downward cycle of May 1. At the moment, the price is in correction. Short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 114.43 - 114.04, from here we expect a key reversal to the top. The breakdown of the level of 114.04 will be accompanied by an unstable development of the situation. Here, the potential goal is 112.92.

A short-term upward movement is possible in the range of 115.21 - 115.79. The breakdown of the last level will lead to the formation of initial conditions for the upward cycle. In this case, the subsequent goals have not yet been determined.

The main trend is the downward cycle of May 1, the correction stage

Trading recommendations:

Buy: Take profit:

Buy: 115.24 Take profit: 115.76

Sell: 114.40 Take profit: 114.06

Sell: 113.95 Take profit: 113.50

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For the pound / yen pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are : 132.27, 131.60, 130.59, 130.10, 129.46, 128.89. Here, we are following the development of the downward structure of April 30. At the moment, the price is in correction. A short-term downward movement is expected in the range of 130.59 - 130.10. The breakdown of the last level will lead to a pronounced downward movement. Here, the target is 129.46. For the potential value for the bottom, we consider the level of 128.89. Upon reaching which, we expect an upward pullback.

Short-term upward movement is expected in the range of 131.60 - 132.27. The breakdown of the last level will lead to the formation of initial conditions for the upward cycle. In this case, the potential target is 133.53.

The main trend is the downward structure of April 30, the correction stage

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 132.35 Take profit: 132.80

Buy: Take profit:

Sell: 130.59 Take profit: 130.15

Sell: 130.05 Take profit: 129.46

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Non Farm Employment Change report will not affect the market significantly.

Signals for the EUR/USD pair:

If the pair breaks through at 1.0882, the euro is likely to grow to 1.0923 and 1.0972.

A breakthrough at 1.0826 can lead to a sell-off of the euro to 1.0771 and 1.0728.

Signals for the GBP/USD pair:

If the pair breaks through at 1.2411, the British pound is likely to rise to 1.2446 and 1.2478.

A breakthrough at 1.2353 can lead to a sell-off of the British pound to 1.2305 and 1.2266.

Fundamental data:

The following fundamnetal data is expected during the day: the US unemployment data and the Non Farm Employment Change report. Apart from that, Christine Lagarde, President of the European Central Bank will deliver a speech.

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Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for 08/05/2020:

Crypto Industry News:

It seems that Bitcoin has again started to stand out from traditional markets, as investors have again focused on the upcoming halving. While, the highest cryptocurrency in market value, it has gained almost 5.9% so far this month, while gold has fallen by 1%. Meanwhile, on Wednesday the S&P 500, the Wall Street stock index fell 2.2% against one month.

Bitcoin is also the best-selling asset, with a 28% increase over the previous year. Oil (WTI) recorded a correction of 66%, which is due to the huge drop in demand caused by the coronavirus pandemic.

Over the past two months, Bitcoin has been moving mainly in tandem with the stock markets. Its value dropped from $ 10,000 to $ 3,867 in the first two weeks of March, because the sale of global shares due to a coronavirus pandemic sparked a global cash spike. The cryptocurrency has risen above $ 7,000 over the next four weeks.

However, positive correlation weakened last week when Bitcoin recorded double-digit earnings, despite moderate share losses. At the time of writing, the cryptocurrency value is currently $ 9,300, a 4.4% increase over the week.

It seems that the situation on the cryptocurrency market has changed the stimulus from coronavirus to halving, which is expected to come into force on May 12 (though this may happen earlier). The supply change process and the recent increase in value from $ 7,600 to $ 10,000 could have been fueled by the fear of losing expected profits.

The Bitcoin network is also experiencing its busiest period for over two years. For example, the average of seven days the number of unique active addresses on the network increased on Wednesday to 947.088, which is why it reached its highest level since January 2018, according to data from Glassnode. This jump suggests an increase in investor interest in cryptocurrency.

Technical Market Outlook:

The BTC/USD pair has hit the level of $10,000 as anticipated and currently the market is consolidating the recent gains. The is only three days to halving, so the price might extend the gains towards the level of $10,248 - $10,430. Still the key level of support is still seen at $8,357, but the nearest technical support is currently seen at the level of $9,704. Any violation of this level will deepen the correction towards the level of $7,934 which is a key short-term technical support for the price. Weak and negative momentum supports the short-term bearish outlook.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - $11,425

WR2 - $10,480

WR1 - $9,720

Weekly Pivot - $8,578

WS1 - $7,824

WS2 - $6,750

WS3 - $5,970

Trading Recommendations:

The recent rally in Bitcoin was made in anticipation of Bitcoin halving and it is a classic pump and dump scheme. The larger time frame trend remains down and as long as the level of $10,791 is not violated, all rallies will be treated as a counter-trend corrective moves. This is why the short positions are now more preferred until the level of $10,791 is clearly violated.

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Technical Analysis of ETH/USD for 08/05/2020:

Crypto Industry News:

The Commodity and Futures Commission (CFTC) has charged US and Israeli companies with alleged fraud of $ 15 million, including cryptocurrencies and binary options. Court documents mention two major frauds, the first of which occurred between October 2013 and November 2016 and concerns binary options. The second concerns digital resources such as Bitcoin and Ethereum, which took place from November 2013 to August 2018.

CFTC charged Tal Valariola and Itayea Baraka of Digital Platinum Limited for helping the American company All In Publishing (AIP) to create and promote numerous misleading investment programs among US and foreign investors.

During the allegedly misleading marketing campaign, as many as 51.917 users opened a binary options account and deposited a total of almost $ 13 million. In addition, 8,043 users opened a digital asset trading account, depositing a total of over $ 2 million.

Technical Market Outlook:

The ETH/USD pair has again bounced from 38% Fibonacci retracement located at the level of $195.94 and violated the short-term trend line resistance around the level of $205.23. The bulls are continuing the rally towards the level of $214.67, but so far were rejected from this level. There is a Bearish Engulfing pattern made around this level, so the rally might be temporary postponed. The nearest technical support is now seen at the level of $209.89.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - $296.61

WR2 - $243.36

WR1 - $224.05

Weekly Pivot - $205.69

WS1 - $188.49

WS2 - $168.64

WS3 - $150.80

Trading Recommendations:

The fear of the coronavirus consequences is very strong among the global investors and it rules on the financial markets. So far the global investors are not so keen to invest in cryptocurrency, because they are being perceived as risky assets. The larger time frame trend on Ethereum remains down and as long as the level of $288 is not violated, all rallies will be treated as a counter-trend corrective moves. This is why the short positions are now more preferred.

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Technical Analysis of EUR/USD for 08/05/2020:

Technical Market Outlook:

The target for EUR/USD bears has been seen at the level of 1.0779 - 1.0767, which is a key short-term support zone for bulls. This zone was hit yesterday and the EUR/USD bounced towards the nearest technical resistance located at the level of 1.0846 after a Pin Bar candlestick was made. The bulls hasn't made a new local high yet, so the next target for them is seen at the level of 38% Fibonacci retracement at 1.0862 and 1.0878. The momentum remains neutral, but might turn positive any time now.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.1279

WR2 - 1.1141

WR1 - 1.1073

Weekly Pivot - 1.0940

WS1 - 1.0861

WS2 - 1.0728

WS3 - 1.0662

Trading Recommendations:

The fear of the coronavirus consequences is very strong among the global investors and this fear still rules on the financial markets. On the EUR/USD pair the main long term trend is down, but the reversal is possible when the coronavirus pandemic will be tamed. The key long-term technical support is seen at the level of 1.0336 and the key long-term technical resistance is seen at the level of 1.1540. Only if one of this levels is clearly violated, the main trend might reverse (1.1540) or accelerate (1.0336).

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Technical Analysis of GBP/USD for 08/05/2020:

Technical Market Outlook:

The GBP/USD pair has tested the technical support located at the level of 1.2297, made a low at the level of 1.2265 before the Pin Bar candlestick was made. The bounce from the support was shallow as the price has been capped again at the resistance located at the level of 1.2405. Please notice, the market is off the oversold levels and tries to extend the bounce higher towards the level of 1.2466 or 1.2485. The momentum is neutral so far, but if turns positive, then the odds for another wave up are higher.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.2909

WR2 - 1.2757

WR1 - 1.2605

Weekly Pivot - 1.2476

WS1 - 1.2324

WS2 - 1.2200

WS3 - 1.2054

Trading Recommendations:

The fear of the coronavirus consequences is very strong among the global investors and it rules on the financial markets. On the GBP/USD pair the main trend is down, but the reversal is possible when the corona virus pandemic will be tamed. The key long-term technical support has been recently violated (1.1983) and the new one is seen at the level of 1.1404. The key long-term technical resistance is seen at the level of 1.3518. Only if one of this levels is clearly violated, the main trend might reverse (1.3518) or accelerate (1.1404). The market might have done a Double Top pattern at the level of 1.2645, so the price might move lower in the longer-term.

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Forecast for EUR/USD on May 8, 2020

EUR/USD

On Thursday, investors decided to fix short-term profit on sales from May 4, the euro gained 42 points by the end of the day. The signal line of the Marlin oscillator almost touches the border with the growth territory, and whether the indicator will turn down or not from it, raises a big question, since US employment data for April is released in the evening. The forecast assumes an increase in unemployment from 4.4% to 16.0%, a reduction in the non-agricultural sector of about 22 million jobs. The intrigue is that investors have long been adapted to record poor performance, and therefore the reaction can be clearly expressed in a risk appetite. That is, they will begin to buy shares and sell dollars. The second part of the risk is that the risk appetite can also turn out to be short-term, purely speculative, because during periods of crisis, investors are guided by the speed of recovery of regional economies, and this option will be better for the United States, because there is stronger financial support for business and the market, and production and service enterprises begin to open.

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The correction may last until strong resistance from the coinciding lines of the price channel and MACD on the daily chart, in the price area of 1.0925. Furthermore, the market can focus on the consolidation range of 1.0770-1.1000, originating from April 6 (a gray rectangle in the chart). In this case, the price exit above the MACD line will be false and the price will return back to 1.0770.

There is also the option that the euro will fall with the release of US data as optimistically accepted by investors. This option is indicated by the probability of a reversal of the Marlin from the neutral level of 0.00.

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The price has already exceeded the MACD line on the four-hour chart, but the Marlin line can also turn around from the border with the growth territory. Leaving the price at yesterday's low of 1.0767 opens the way to the nearest target of 1.0595.

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Forecast for AUD/USD on May 8, 2020

AUD/USD

The Australian dollar gained 98 points yesterday thanks to a general weakening of the US currency and optimistic data on the Chinese economy. China's trade balance in April showed growth from 19.9 billion dollars to 45.3 billion against the forecast of 9.1 billion. The trade balance of Australia showed an increase from 3.87 billion dollars to 10.60 billion in March. On such a fundamental positive, the aussie's growth can continue to the 0.6665 level (September 2019 low, December 2018 low), but then a double divergence will form on the Marlin oscillator on the daily chart, which will soon turn the price down.

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The price is completely in an upward local trend on four-hour chart, but its reversal can occur when the price goes below the signal level of 0.6508, this is support for the embedded line of the price channel on the daily chart.

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One can speak of a change in the trend only when the price decreases under the MACD line on the scope in question (0.6430). In this case, the target opens along the MACD line at the daily scope of 0.6260.

So, we are waiting for the Australian dollar to grow to 0.6665. Data on US employment will be released in the evening, which carry the risk of a high speculative component.

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Forecast for USD/JPY on May 8, 2020

USD/JPY

The dollar grew by 17 points against the yen on Thursday, the highest of the day was met by strong resistance of the embedded line of the price channel on the daily chart. A fall exactly along the Fibonacci time line did not follow, this instrument is losing influence. The Marlin oscillator continues to slowly decline in the negative area, the general downward trend continues. The goals are the same: 105.10, 103.95.

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This calm main scenario could be disrupted with the release of evening data on employment in the US. Unemployment is expected to rise in April from 4.4% to 16.0%. After overcoming yesterday's high (106.67), it is possible to continue the growth to 107.50 – to a strong resistance from the coinciding lines of the price channel and the MACD.

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The price is developing under the balance and MACD lines on the four-hour chart. The Marlin oscillator is balancing on the zero line. We are waiting for the news release.

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CAD/CHF approaching resistance, potential drop!

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Trading Recommendation

Entry: 0.69861

Reason for Entry: horizontal swing high resistance, 78.6% fibonacci retracement, and 78.6% fibonacci extension

Take Profit : 0.68783

Reason for Take Profit: horizontal swing low support, 61.8% fibonacci retracement

Stop Loss: 0.70223

Reason for Stop loss: 100% fibonacci extension

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CADJPY coming close to descending trendline resistance. A further push down is expected.

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Trading Recommendation

Entry: 76.364

Reason for Entry: descending trendline resistance, 61.8% Fibonacci retracement

Take Profit : 74.973

Reason for Take Profit: Graphical swing low

Stop Loss: 77.260

Reason for Stop loss: Graphical swing high

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Overview of the GBP/USD pair. May 8. The UK begins trade talks with the US. China responds harshly to the accusations of

4-hour timeframe

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Technical details:

Higher linear regression channel: direction - downward.

Lower linear regression channel: direction - downward.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - downward.

CCI: -154.7020

The British pound on the fourth trading day of the week also worked out the lower border of the side channel (the Murray level of "1/8"-1.2268), in which it consolidated in recent weeks, also rebounded from it, and also began an upward correction. Thus, both major currency pairs have 100% worked out their consolidation channels and are now ready to grow to the upper limits of these channels. In the case of the British currency, this is the Murray level of "7/8"-1.2634. It is recommended to consider the option of forming a downward trend not earlier than fixing below the level of 1.2268. But overcoming the moving average line will significantly increase the probability of further upward movement and testing our hypothesis.

The results of the Bank of England meeting were disastrous but absolutely expected. What else could you expect from the British regulator, if not failed forecasts for the fall of the economy in 2020? Also, in the near future, the BA Monetary Committee may decide to increase the asset repurchase program from the current 645 billion pounds to 100 or 200 billion. The head of the British Central Bank, Andrew Bailey, confirmed yesterday that he was ready to expand the stimulus package "if necessary." In addition, Mr. Bailey noted government programs to stimulate the economy and noted that "the Central Bank has not yet exhausted its monetary policy tools and will continue to take appropriate measures." "No matter how the economic outlook changes, the Bank of England will always do everything to ensure monetary and financial stability, which is necessary for long-term prosperity and meeting the needs of the UK population," Bailey concluded.

At the same time, it is reported that the British government has begun negotiations with America regarding the conclusion of a transatlantic trade deal. We talked about a trade deal with the United States last year. After all, this is what Boris Johnson wanted to achieve by implementing a "hard" Brexit – the ability to independently decide the future of the country and not depend on the EU in any matter. Now, after almost a year, nothing has changed in the intentions of the British government. Boris Johnson again refused to postpone the completion of the "transition period", Michel Barnier accused London of delaying negotiations and the lack of counter-proposals. Now it has become known that London is starting negotiations with Washington. The first round of negotiations begins today and will last for two weeks. As in the case of Brussels, negotiations will be conducted via video link due to the "coronavirus" pandemic. International Trade Minister Elizabeth Truss said that the UnitedStates is a major trading partner of the UK and increasing trade turnover with them will help the country overcome the difficulties caused by Brexit and the COVID-2019 pandemic. Earlier, the UK Department of International Trade estimated that the effect of a trade deal with America could reach 3.4 billion pounds over the next 15 years. The US Chamber of Commerce recommended that the UK conclude a trade agreement with the European Union as soon as possible in order to start promoting US-British business and investment ties as quickly as possible.

Meanwhile, in the United States, the total number of cases of infection with "coronavirus" reached 1 million 230 thousand, the number of deaths – 73.5 thousand. That, however, does not prevent Donald Trump from also zealously insisting on ending the quarantine and restarting the economy. The topic of the investigation about China's role in deliberately spreading the virus and not preventing it, as well as misinformation, has subsided a little. The American President promised to provide all the necessary information in the coming weeks. But US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo in one of his last interviews said that he was not sure that the COVID-2019 virus came from a Chinese laboratory. Mr. Pompeo complained that China did not allow American scientists to enter the Wuhan laboratory. The Secretary of State has already forgotten that a week earlier he himself declared "irrefutable evidence" of China's guilt. Thus, even in the highest political circles of the United States, there is no consensus on where the virus came from and what triggered its spread around the world. I must say that the constant contradictory statements on the topic of China's guilt do not add confidence to the American official position and the position of Donald Trump personally. Members of the US government regularly change their own testimony, and more knowledgeable people regularly refute their testimony. For example, the country's chief epidemiologist, Anthony Fauci, has repeatedly refuted Donald Trump's claims regarding the "coronavirus". At the same time, the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs issued an official statement advising Washington to take responsibility for the unsuccessful fight against the epidemic in the United States. According to the Chinese authorities, the United States needs to learn from the mistakes made in the first months of the fight against the virus and focus on correcting the situation and containing the epidemic. Donald Trump just yesterday compared the situation with the "coronavirus" to the attacks on the military base of Pearl Harbor in 1941 and the terrorist attack on September 11, 2001, calling it "much more terrible." Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Hua Chunying responds: "The US claims that the COVID-19 pandemic can be compared to the attacks on Pearl Harbor and the September 11 terrorist attack, but now the US enemy is a virus. The United States needs to work with China to fight the disease instead of being enemies because only the joint efforts of the international community can win the fight against coronavirus infection." The US should focus on the fight against coronavirus, and not blame China for what is happening. As you may have noticed, since the outbreak of the coronavirus, China has been acting in an open, responsible and transparent manner, we have taken the most comprehensive measures to contain the spread of the pandemic, and we are sharing our experience and information with WHO, other countries and regions, including the United States," said Hua Chunying. "China was able to contain the spread of the virus and bring the epidemic under control in just over two months, and the United States has already had more than 1.2 million confirmed cases. What has the US been doing over the past months?" the diplomat summarizes.

Yesterday passed for the British pound in multidirectional trading, but technical factors remain the most significant when forecasting movement. We have repeatedly stated that the pound is currently trading in a very wide side channel, as is the euro currency. Yesterday, the pair's quotes fell to the level of 1.2265, and we called the level of 1.2250 - the lower border of the channel. Thus, at this time, the pound/dollar pair can turn up and start moving towards the upper border of the channel - the level of 1.2640. Only a confident overcoming of the area of 1.2200-1.2250 can trigger the formation of a new downward trend.

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The average volatility of the GBP/USD pair continues to decline and is currently 106 points. This is not too much for the pound, and there are no signs of increased volatility yet. On Friday, May 8, we expect movement within the channel, limited by the levels of 1.2265 and 1.2477. Turning the Heiken Ashi indicator down will indicate the end of the current correction.

Nearest support levels:

S1 – 1.2329

S2 – 1.2268

S3 – 1.2207

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 – 1.2390

R2 – 1.2451

R3 – 1.2512

Trading recommendations:

The GBP/USD pair started an upward correction on the 4-hour timeframe, which may turn into a movement to the level of 1.2634. Thus, traders are recommended to sell a pair with goals of 1.2329 and 1.2268 only if the price rebounds from the moving average or the Heiken Ashi indicator turns down. It is recommended to buy the pound/dollar pair not before fixing the price above the moving average with the first goals of 1.2512 and 1.2573.

Explanation of the illustrations:

The highest linear regression channel is the blue unidirectional lines.

The lowest linear regression channel is the purple unidirectional lines.

CCI - blue line in the indicator window.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - blue line on the price chart.

Murray levels - multi-colored horizontal stripes.

Heiken Ashi is an indicator that colors bars in blue or purple.

Possible variants of the price movement:

Red and green arrows.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Overview of the EUR/USD pair. May 8. The European Union may not survive the "coronavirus" pandemic. Europe is predicted to

4-hour timeframe

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Technical details:

Higher linear regression channel: direction - downward.

Lower linear regression channel: direction - downward.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - downward.

CCI: -56.9734

The EUR/USD currency pair starts Friday, May 8, in a corrective movement that started last night. We have repeatedly warned that on the approach to the area of 1.0750-1.0740 or when working out this area directly, the euro/dollar pair may turn up, since here lies the lower border of the side channel, in which the pair has been consolidating in recent weeks. In practice, it turned out that the quotes worked out the minimum of April 6 – 1.0768 and rebounded from it. Thus, so far, the current movement is identified as a correction, but the probability of overcoming the moving and moving to the Murray level of "2/8"-1.0986 is extremely high.

The "coronavirus" epidemic, if it has stopped gaining momentum, has definitely not gone anywhere. Yes, the rate of infection growth has fallen, and the death rate from the "Chinese disease" has also decreased. However, this does not mean that you can now breathe freely. According to the latest research by scientists, the virus does not tolerate sunlight and high temperature. Therefore, in the summer and hot months, it can spread very reluctantly. However, with the arrival of a colder season, it can become active again. There are medications to treat the COVID-2019 virus, but there are no specialized ones. Vaccines have also not yet been invented. This means that at any moment, the whole world or any single country can be covered by a new wave of the epidemic. Especially now, when many countries have begun to relax quarantine measures. We certainly hope that nothing like this will happen. This is in the interests of all humanity. But to rule out such a scenario would be foolish. Recent publications of forecasts from the IMF, ECB, Fed, and other international organizations, rating agencies, financial conglomerates, and banking syndicates, all predict the economies of the UK, the US, and the European Union to fall heavily. In the European Union, we are talking about a minimum of 7.7% in 2020, and in the United States, it may exceed 5%. If the United States does not have problems with financing the economy, small and medium-sized businesses, as well as providing assistance to the American population, all aid packages are accepted and approved by Congress and the Fed, then in Europe, everything is not so simple. The other day, we already mentioned that the German court's ruling casts doubt on the legality of the ECB's actions to buy bonds as part of the economic stimulus program over the past 5 years. However, now, in times of epidemic and crisis, the ECB is conducting several more programs to buy securities through the central banks of all EU member states. So the German court decided to explain the legality of such actions by the ECB within three months. However, officials of the European Central Bank have already said that the ECB does not obey the German court, and there is no ruling of the European court, and it is unknown whether it will. Thus, it is not a fact that this story will get any continuation, and the ECB will be prohibited from conducting similar programs in the future. The main claim of the Germans is that the repurchase of securities of various countries is disproportionate and is aimed at direct financing of debts, which seems to be prohibited by European law.

However, in addition, some EU officials believe that the Alliance itself may not survive the "coronavirus" epidemic. Former President of the European Council Donald Tusk in an interview with the German newspaper Der Spiegel said: "We have never faced such a challenge as now, with a pandemic. If we look at southern Europe, we are talking about a disaster. Here everything depends on quick help, as well as on sympathy and solidarity." According to Tusk, Italy, Spain, Portugal, and Greece were completely unprepared for a new crisis and epidemic, because of them, the European Union suffered huge reputational losses. Now it is up to Brussels to pull these countries from the bottom. However, the ECB, the European Parliament, and the European Council are not charitable organizations that can print money in any amount and distribute it left and right. These organizations are backed by the same member states of the European Union. Thus, in fact, more financially stable countries like Finland or Germany will have to pay the bills of Italy, Spain, Greece, and Portugal. Naturally, this approach to solving the problems of the "southern countries" does not suit the "northerners" themselves. "The one who has more should also give more. This is the principle of solidarity. Germany is financially strong and can protect its industry and its companies. Other EU countries do not have this opportunity," says Donald Tusk. The option with "coronabonds" has failed at the moment, since the European Council failed to agree on the issue of securities on behalf of the entire EU for the purpose of their further placement on debt markets.

French President Emmanuel Macron holds a similar opinion. He also speaks of solidarity on the part of the Nordic countries (Germany and the Netherlands) in helping the countries most affected by the epidemic. Macron believes that if the aid is not provided, the entire European Union will be at risk of collapse. "If Germany and other financially stable EU countries refuse to support those most affected by the pandemic, it will help to win the populists in Italy, Spain, and France, as well as in other countries that will not receive assistance from the EU in times of crisis," the French President said. "I think that the EU is a political project. We need to provide financial assistance and show solidarity in order for Europe to remain united. In the more affluent European countries have a great responsibility," Macron concluded. Thus, the question now in Europe is the most simple: the Netherlands, Finland, Germany, and others must either pull out the most affected countries at their own expense, or the EU may come to an end.

Quite important macroeconomic publications are again scheduled for the last trading day of the week. This time it's all in the United States. Today we will know the official unemployment rate for April, which may rise to 14%. The number of new jobs created outside the agricultural sector (NonFarm Payrolls) – may decrease by 22 million, as well as the average hourly wage with a forecast of +3.3%. It should be noted at once that the latter indicator does not have any special significance at the moment. Nonfarm Payrolls will almost repeat previous reports on unemployment benefit claims and ADP, so it may not arouse any interest from market participants. The unemployment rate of 14% is too optimistic, according to the latest estimates of the number of Americans who applied for benefits. Thus, these reports with very "loud" signs are unlikely to interest traders in practice. For example, yesterday an important report on applications for unemployment benefits was ignored – the dollar continued to grow. The day before yesterday, an important ADP report was ignored – the dollar continued to grow.

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The average volatility of the Euro/dollar currency pair as of May 8 is 79 points. Thus, the indicator has decreased slightly and now its value is characterized as "average". Today, we expect quotes to move between the levels of 1.0750 and 1.0908. A downward turn of the Heiken Ashi indicator may signal the end of the upward correction cycle.

Nearest support levels:

S1 – 1.0742

S2 – 1.0620

S3 – 1.0498

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 – 1.0864

R2 – 1.0986

R3 – 1.1108

Trading recommendations:

The EUR/USD pair started to adjust. Thus, sales of the pair with targets in the area of 1.0750-1.0740 remain relevant now, if there is a rebound from the moving average line. It is recommended to consider buying the euro/dollar pair not before the price is re-anchored above the moving average line with the goals of 1.0908 and 1.0986.

Explanation of the illustrations:

The highest linear regression channel is the blue unidirectional lines.

The lowest linear regression channel is the purple unidirectional lines.

CCI - blue line in the indicator window.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - blue line on the price chart.

Murray levels - multi-colored horizontal stripes.

Heiken Ashi is an indicator that colors bars in blue or purple.

Possible variants of the price movement:

Red and green arrows.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Hot forecast and trading signals for the EUR/USD pair on May 8. NonFarm Payrolls, unemployment and wages versus technical

EUR/USD 1H

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Quotes of the euro/dollar pair, as we expected the day before, fell to an ascending long-term trend line drawn at the lows of March 23 and April 24 on the hourly timeframe. The pair did not reach the trend line by just a few points, but this is normal. A reversal occurred when working out the support area 1.0762 - 1.0774. Thus, from a technical point of view, the euro should definitely continue to grow now. In addition, a downward trend line was built and overcome yesterday. This overcoming gives us another signal to change the trend to an upward one. In addition, traders often trade against the main trend on Friday. If the EUR/USD pair has recently fallen, then, most likely, there will be a correctional increase tomorrow. Therefore, we have several factors for the euro's growth on the last trading day of the week. The potential target for moving up is the psychological level of 1.10 and the April 19 high of 1.0990.

As we have already said in recent fundamental reviews, market participants are currently ignoring the entire macroeconomic background. Yesterday was no exception, all the macroeconomic reports of the day, including the important report on applications for unemployment benefits in the United States, had no effect on the pair's movement. The dollar started to fall much later than the publication of this report. Several important US data will be released today. We have already said in fundamental reviews that they are unlikely to have any effect on the course of today's trading. Nevertheless, paying attention to them is still worth it. Especially on NonFarm Payrolls and the unemployment rate. In all other respects, tomorrow will have to be not much different from other days. Even if there is any data on the topic of "evidence of China's fault on the issue of" coronavirus " or Donald Trump makes a loud speech again, this is unlikely to again affect the mood of traders. Thus, we believe that today will be exclusively corrective and exclusively technical.

Based on the foregoing, we have two trading ideas for May 8:

1) During the last trading day of the week, we expect the euro to grow to the Senkou Span B (1.0873) and Kijun-sen (1.0893) lines. There is also a resistance area of 1.0881 - 1.0894 between these lines, from which the pair has repeatedly rebounded. We do not recommend rejecting these goals, as market participants may not overcome them today or overcome them, but not on the first try. But after consolidating above them, we advise you to open buy orders with the target of 1.0990. The potential Take Profit order in this case will be 93 points.

2) The second option - bearish - suggests a rebound from the area of 1.0873 - 1.0893 with the resumption of the downward movement. However, we recommend that you be extremely careful with this signal, as it may be false. But consolidating below the long-term trend line (and at the same time and below the support area of 1.0762 - 1.0774 and below the support level of 1.0754) will definitely cause a downward trend to form, in which case it will be possible to open sales with the target support level of 1.0645. The potential to Take Profit in the execution of this scenario is 110 points.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com