Gold analysis for July 20, 2015

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Overview:

Gold has been trading downwards. The price tested the level of $1,085.15. According to the daily time frame, we can observe a strong bearish bar in an ultra-high volume (selling climax). According to the H1 time frame, we can observe supply in an ultra-high volume. Since the price has broken support at $1,132.00, we may expect potential testing of the level of $1,035.00 (monthly support). Watch for potential selling opportunities after retracement. Selling climax is active so selling at this stage looks risky because of possible bullish correction.The resistance level is around the price of $1,118.00.

Daily Fibonacci pivot points:

Resistance levels

R1: 1,132.00

R2: 1,133.00

R3: 1,134.00

Support levels:

S1: 1,129.00

S2: 1,128.00

S3: 1,126.00

Trading recommendations: Supply in an ultra-high volume is observed on the market. Watch for a potential selling after retracement.

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Technical analysis of Silver for July 20, 2015

Technical outlook and chart setups:

Silver is seen to be trading around the $14.80 levels at the moment after testing lows at the $14.50 levels earlier. The metal could bounce back from current levels if it manages to take out the $15.85/85 and $16.40 resistance levels subsequently. Please note that the metal could drop towards sub $13.00 levels as well before bouncing back at the long-term support trendline depicted on the monthly chart view here. It is therefore recommended to hold long positions for now with risk at the $14.25 levels. If prices drop lower, remain flat. Immediate support is seen at the $14.00 levels followed by $12.00/30, while resistance is seen at the $16.40 levels and higher respectively.

Trading recommendations:

Remain long until prices remain above the $14,25 levels.

Good luck!

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Technical analysis of Gold for July 20, 2015

Technical outlook and chart setups:

Gold is trading around $1,106.00 now after having reached fresh lows at $1,087.00 today. The metal looks to get finally on its way towards at least $1,030.00/30.00, which acted as resistance on the monthly chart. Please note that the above level was 2008 high/resistance, which would now act as support if prices manage to reach them. It is recommended to remain flat for now and look for an opportunity to sell on a rally through the levels of $1,130.00/40.00. Bears are expected to remain in control until prices stay below $1,230.00. Immediate support is seen at $1,050.00 while resistance is seen at $1,230.00 respectively.

Trading recommendations:

Remain flat for now, look to sell higher towards $1,130.00/40.00.

Good luck!

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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for July 20, 2015

Technical outlook and chart setups:

The EUR/JPY is trading around the levels of 134.85/90 now after having dropped lower into 134.00 earlier. Please note that the pair has bounced off the fibonacci 0.786 support levels around 134.00 and also taken out the counter trendline as depicted on the 1H chart. The pair remains bullish until prices stay above the level of 133.00. It is therefore recommended to remain long and look for an opportunity to add further positions with risk at 133.00. Immediate support is seen at the levels of 133.00/30, followed by 131.50 and lower while resistance is seen at 135.25 (interim) followed by 136.25, 138.00, and higher respectively.

Trading recommendations:

Remain long for now, stop is at 133.00, a target is open.

Good luck!

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EUR/NZD analysis for July 20, 2015

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Overview:

Recently, EUR/NZD is moving downwards. As we had expected, the price tested the level of 1.6428 in a volume above the average. In the daily time frame, we can observe a weak downward bar in a volume below the average. There is also an inside-bar formation at the level of 16677 (held successful) and a low (support) at 1.6340. Watch for a potential breakout of inside-bar support or resistance. Besides, we have strong rejection from our demand trendline (support) around the level of 1.6390. Strong support is seen at the level of 1.6410. The short-term trend is neutral, but the mid-term trend is still bullish. I am still waiting for larger liquidity and stronger price actions to confirm the further direction.

Fibonacci Pivot Points :

Resistance levels:

R1: 1.6675

R2: 1.6700

R3: 1.6750

Support levels:

S1: 1.6575

S2: 1.6545

S3: 1.6495

Trading recommendations: Buying EUR/NZD at this stage looks risky since we have a fake breakout in the background.

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GBP/USD intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for July 20, 2015

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Overview:

On April 9, the bearish trend was resumed towards the level of 1.4550 where a lower daily bottom (which initiated the ongoing bullish swing) was reached.

A daily closure above 1.5060 exposed the next resistance levels at 1.5400 and 1.5450 where a temporary bearish pullback took place on April 29.

The next bullish swing extended up to the levels of 1.5750-1.5800, which offered traders few valid sell entries (depicted with red arrows). The final bearish target at 1.5450 was already reached.

Recently, strong bullish pressure was applied against the resistance levels around 1.5800 via the ongoing bullish swing.

That is why the resistance level at 1.5800 was temporarily breached. Hence, GBP/USD bulls pursued towards 100% Fibonacci Expansion located around 1.5900 where the depicted successive lower highs were initiated.

Hence, the level of 1.5555 (prominent demand level/depicted uptrend line) got breached earlier this week due to excessive bearish pressure. This enhanced the bearish side of the market towards 1.5360.

The level of 1.5555 (prominent demand level/depicted uptrend line) got breached earlier last week due to excessive bearish pressure. This enhanced the bearish side of the market towards 1.5360.

As suggested in our previous articles, a bullish pullback towards 1.5550-1.5600 was expected to occur.

Our suggested sell entry around 1.5600 got triggered last week. It is still trading almost around entry levels. S/L should be set as a daily closure above 1.5650.

Early fixation below the level of 1.5550 is mandatory to pursue towards bearish targets, initially at 1.5450.

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Technical analysis of GBP/CHF for July 20, 2015

Technical outlook and chart setups:

The GBP/CHF pair is seen to be trading around 1.4990 levels for now, preparing to drop at least to the 1.4800 levels. As depicted on the H1 chart here, the pair has broken below the immediate line of support, and is forming an engulfing bearish candlestick signal for now. An aggressive trade setup would be to initiate short positions now with risk at the 1.5070 levels. Immediate support is seen at 1.4900 levels followed by 1.4850, 1.4750 and lower, while resistance is seen at the 1.5040 levels, followed by 1.5100 and higher respectively. Please note that the expected drop would be just a counter trend for now.

Trading recommendations:

Initiate short positions now. Stop is at 1.5170, target is 1.4800.

Good luck!

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USD/CAD intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for July 20, 2015

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Overview:

When bulls pushed the price further above 79.6% Fibonacci level, the market looked quite overbought. That is why, the price failed to hold above 1.2650 - 1.2680 (previous highs) resulting in a formation of a Triple-top pattern.

Successive lower highs were reached within the depicted consolidation zone enhancing the bearish side of the market.

Daily fixation below 1.2300 opened a way towards the levels of 1.2000 and 1.1940 (the depicted weekly uptrend).

Bullish support was found around these levels. Successive higher bottoms were established. Bullish pressure was applied against resistance levels of 1.2450 and 1.2500 (previous tops).

On the other hand, the previous weekly candlestick came quite bullish when the pair needed frank weekly closure below 1.2300. This reflected a lack of enough bearish momentum.

That is why, an extensive bullish movement is being seen on the chart. A bullish breakout above the price zone of 1.2770-1.2800 has been executed.

The long-term bullish projection target would be located at the level of 1.3080 if enough bullish support remains around the recently established zone (1.2750-1.2800).

Conservative traders can wait for a bullish pullback towards 1.2800 or probably slightly lower, for a valid buy entry with a low risk/reward ratio (breakout level = recent support).

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for GBP/USD for July 20, 2015

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Evident bullish recovery emerged from the area around 1.4550 where significant bullish engulfing weekly candlesticks were expressed.

Shortly after, persistence above the levels of 1.5000-1.5080 exposed the weekly key zone of 1.5500-1.5550 where significant bearish pressure was previously applied on February 22.

Last month, the market was pushed above this weekly key zone around 1.5550 in an attempt to reach the area around 1.5900, which provided evident supply for the GBP/USD pair.

As anticipated, a bearish pullback was executed towards the level of 1.5550. A bearish breakout below 1.5500 took place two weeks ago.

However, previous week's candlestick indicates bullish rejection besides lack of strong bearish momentum below 1.5500.

One obvious weekly candlestick closure above 1.5500 hinders the further bearish decline and enhances the bullish side of the market. It allows a quick bullish pullback towards 1.5750 to occur shortly after.

On the other hand, the nearest weekly demand level around 1.5200 becomes exposed if GBP/USD bears manage to close below the level of 1.5500.

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After a bearish breakout of the lower limit of the depicted bullish channel (roughly around 1.5500-1.5550), the market failed to gather enough bearish momentum towards the intraday demand level of 1.5100.

Significant bullish pressure was observed around 1.5200. Hence, a bullish swing was established towards 1.5780 (61.8% Fibonacci level) and 1.5880.

Previously, the price zone of 1.5800-1.5880 acted as a significant supply zone. It offered a valid sell entry few weeks ago. All T/P levels were successfully reached.

On the other hand, the level at 1.5550 (corresponding to 50% Fibonacci level and a previous prominent top) was broken temporarily allowing further bearish decline towards 1.5350 where an ascending bottom had been recently established.

Last week, strong bullish price actions have been expressed. A bullish pullback towards 1.5600 has been taking place. The level of 1.5550 was breached during last week's consolidations.

The level of 1.5770 (61.8% Fibonacci level) is the nearest supply level. A counter-trend intraday sell entry can be offered when further retesting occurs.

On the other hand, intraday bullish demand should be expected around the level of 1.5550 (being tested Today). An intraday buy enter can be offered as long as bulls keep defending the level of 1.0550 on a daily basis.

On the other hand, a daily closure below 1.0550 hinders further bullish advancement, allowing a quick bearish decline towards 1.5470 and 1.5370.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for July 20, 2015

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The market was pushed lower after breaking below major demand levels around 1.2100 and 1.2000 where historical bottoms were previously hit back in July 2012 and June 2010.

EUR/USD bears have already pushed the price slightly below the monthly demand level at 1.0550 (established on January 1997). Bullish recovery was expressed shortly-after.

April's monthly candlestick came as a bullish engulfing one. However, the next monthly candlesticks (May and June) reflected recent bearish rejection being expressed around 1.1450.

In the long term, a projection target is still located at 0.9450 proving that a bearish breakdown of the monthly demand level at 1.0550 occurs soon.

However, a bullish corrective movement towards 1.1500 may be executed only if May's monthly high of 1.1465 gets breached (considered a very low probability currently).

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After such a long bearish rally (which started around the levels of 1.1300), bullish rejection took place at 1.0570 (monthly demand level).

Multiple ascending bottoms were established around the levels of 1.0470, 1.0550, and 1.0850. These levels corresponded to the daily uptrend depicted on the chart.

Further bullish pressure was observed until bearish rejection was applied around 1.1400 (long-term double-top reversal pattern).

A daily closure below the level of 1.1150 brought the EUR/USD pair towards 1.1000 again where the uptrend comes to meet the EUR/USD pair (significant demand level depicted on the chart).

As anticipated, a bearish daily closure below 1.0950 hindered an ongoing bullish scenario enabling a quick bearish decline towards 1.0850 (was already reached) and 1.0700 yet to come (projection target for the reversal pattern).

A bullish pullback towards the recently-established supply zone (price zone of 1.0950-1.0990) can offer a valid sell entry. S/L should be located above 1.1050. T/P levels should remain at 1.0850 and 1.0700.

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for July 20, 2015

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Overview:

  • The NZD/USD pair is continuing to show signs of weakness in the wake of a break at 0.6668. Therefore, the support was broken and turned to resistance last week. Moreover, the pair has already formed strong resistance at the level of 0.6668. So, the market indicates a bearish opportunity at the level of 0.6670 with the first target at 0.6680 and continues towards 0.6530. Additionally, if the trend manages to break this level and closes below 0.6530, it will be a downside momentum rather convincing. The structure of the fall does not look corrective, for that the market will indicate a bearish opportunity at 0.6530. As a result, it will be a good sign to sell again at this level (0.6530) with the last target at 0.6498 this week in order to test the double bottom in the H1 chart. It should be borne in mind that the stop loss should never exceed your maximum exposure amounts.
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Global macro overview for July 20, 2015

Global macro overview for 20/07/2015:

The upbeat economic data from the US last week made fresh expectations about the September FED rate hike more alive. The immediate result of this speculations was a massive drop in gold prices in the early Asian trading hours. Gold futures in New York traded 2.4 percent lower at $1,107.93 an ounce after dropping as much as 4.6 percent losing more than $50 at about 9:30 a.m. The explanation of this move down is rather simple: any increase in the US interest rates should further strengthen the dollar, hence more funds will see outflows from commodities, metals and emerging-market assets. Moreover, according to Kitco News "Main Street vs Wall Street" survey this week, 68% (247 out of 364) participant expect to see further gold decline next week and 25% (90 out of 364) would rather see higher gold prices.

Amid the extreme market bearishness, interesting seasonal correlation can be spotted in gold behavior since 2008: the seasonal trend is to bottom in June-July period and rally for the most of the year. If the trend is set to continue, the bounce from the key support zone might be a good buy opportunity in coming weeks.

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for July 20, 2015

Review:

  • The first resistance of USD/CHF pair is projected at the level of 0.9666 today.
  • The second resistance has already set at 0.9720. On the other hand, the supports is found at the levels of 0.9493 and 0.9542.
  • The area of 0.9493 / 0.9542 is a useful spot to buy in the long term this week with targets at 0.9666 and 0.9720.
  • We expect a range of 298 pips this week.
  • 99 pips would make a profit of 298 pips.
  • The value of 100% Fibonacci retracement levels is: 0.9542 (the double top).
  • Volatility: 298.57. As a rule, the market is highly volatile if the last day had a huge volatility.
  • The USD/CHF pair pair will probably go up because the upward trend is still strong for that we expect that the trend for bullish market.

Weekly technical levels:

Date: 20/07/2015

Pair: USD/CHF

  • Resistance 2: 0.9720
  • Resistance 1: 0.9666
  • Pivot point: 0.9602
  • Support 1: 0.9542
  • Support 2: 0.9493
  • It should be noted that if there is no significant news to influence, the price will be moving from the pivot point to resistance 1 or support 1. Otherwise, the price may go straight through resistance 1 or support 1 and reaches resistance 2 or support 2 and even resistance 3 or support 3.
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Global macro overview for July 20, 2015

Global macro overview for 20/07/2015:

While Greek prime minister Alexis Tsipras is scheduling the second parliamentary vote to secure the bailout agreement, Greek banks are finally open after being closed down for three weeks . The Greeks have now access to basic banking services, including check disposal and safe deposit box access. Nevertheless, a daily withdrawal limit is 60 euros ($ 65), but is should be replaced by a cumulative maximum of 420 euros withdrawal a week.

While German Chancellor Angela Merkel mentioned in her parliamentary speech that Germany 'may consider' debt relief for Greece, Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble was ready to step aside from the negotiation talks if Merkel objected to his tactics. Amid the news, the EUR/USD pair is trading at the critical support of 1.0815. Any breakout lower and a daily close below the level of 1.0815 would suggest immediate test of the recent swing lows at the level of 1.0461.

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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for July 20, 2015

General overview for 20/07/2015 11:50 CET

The three wave down decline wedge is now a part of wave b green corrective cycle that looks completed now. Nevertheless, any breakout below the intraday support at the level of 134.36 would extend a downfall towards the wave A blue support at the level of 133.28. On the other hand, a breakout above the weekly pivot at the level of 135.04 is a bullish one.

Support/Resistance:

135.77 - WR3

136.17 - WR2

135.34 - WR1

135.04 - Weekly Pivot

134.94 - Intraday Resistance

134.36 - Intraday Support

134.23 - WS1

133.89 - WS2

133.28 - Swing Low

133.09 - WS3

Trading recommendations:

Buying on dips is a way to trade on this market and daytraders should consider opening sell orders only if the level of 134.36 is clearly violated ( hourly candle close below this level).

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Technical analysis of USD/CAD for July 20, 2015

General overview for 20/07/2015 11:30 CET

As anticipated last week, the uncompleted impulsive wave progression to the upside is still in progress. There are two counts here: a main count and an alternative one. Both counts signal that the price can move upwards. According to the main count, the market has just completed the first wave of the bigger wave 3 black and is expected to go higher soon. The alternative count suggests a possibility, similar to the wave alt, that iv green is currently in progress and the market is likely to move higher soon. The first weekly technical target for both counts is seen at the level of 1.3072. Only a sustained breakout below the technical support at 1.2804 would invalidate the bullish scenario.

Support/Resistance:

1.3072 - WR3

1.3022 - WR2

1.3006 - WR1

1.2955 - Weekly Pivot

1.2947 - Intraday Support

1.2932 - WS1

1.2890 - WS2

1.2862 - WS3

1.2804 - Technical Support

Trading recommendations:

Buying on dips is the way to trade on this market and daytraders should consider opening sell orders only if the level of 1.2947 is clearly violated ( hourly candle close below this level).

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USDX technical analysis for July 20, 2015

The US Dollar Index remains in a bullish trend although today we see some short-term reversal signals. We might see a short-term pullback, but the overall trend remains bullish with new highs as targets.

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Red line - possible price path

The US Dollar Index is moving towards higher highs and higher lows. The price is above the Ichimoku cloud. There are some signs of possible reversal and a pullback towards the previous resistance area around 97.30 could be justified as a back-test. Bulls remain in control of the trend.

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Blue line - resistance

The weekly chart remains bullish as the price remains above the kijun- and tenkan-sen and has briefly broken above the blue horizontal trend-line resistance. The weekly chart remains bullish in the longer-term. As long as the price is above 95.50-95 area, the trend will favor bulls with targets above 100. The kijun- and tenkan-sen indicators are now with a positive slope again and this is a bullish sign as well.

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Gold technical analysis for July 20, 2015

Gold price broke support last week. During today's early trading, we saw stops getting hit ferociously and bringing the price to the area around $1,080. Gold price has bounced towards $1,115 but still remains below the previous long-term support of $1,130. Is the decline in Gold over? Most probably not.

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Blue line- trend line resistance

Gold prices remain below the trend-line resistance and below the Ichimoku cloud. The trend remains bearish. The price collapsed as it activated sell stop orders earlier today and moved towards $1,080. The bounce so far has managed to retraced nearly 38% of a decline, which is a usual and normal bounce. The trend should continue lower. A daily close above the 38% retracement could push the price even higher towards the 61.8% retracement or even the cloud resistance.

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Blue line - long-term support

The weekly chart remains fully bearish with both kijun- and tenkan-sen now with a negative slope and new lows. This is not a good sign although I cannot rule out a short-term bounce to test the breakdown area. So, a bounce towards $1,140 should not be excluded. In general, I would remain bearish in the long term as I believe we could see a test of $1,000.

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Forecast of USDX for July 20, 2015

The USDX breached the descending trendline drawn from highs reached at 1985 to highs reached 2002. The index spent considerable time consolidating above that levels, aiming for highs reached 2002. The index breached the previous swing high of 97.78, the nearest resistance is seen at 98.25 and 98.70.

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Forecast of USD/CAD for July 20, 2015

The pair has been edging higher for 4 consecutive days, but failed to breach the parallel resistance. The nearest resistance is seen at 1.3020 and 1.3150. The monthly parallel support resistance is expected at 1.3063. In all time frames, the pair remained at the bullish territory aiming for 1.3300, but oscillators indicatws the highly overbought market with negative mild divergences.

Intraday resistance i9s seen at 1.3020 and 1.3070. From here, an upside journey is limited. Intraday support is found at 1.2970, 1.2950, and 1.2900.

Trade: Sell below 1.2950, accelerates below 1.2900.

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Forecast of Gold for July 20, 2015

The yellow metal extended losses for the 4th consecutive week as well.

In Fed William words "US economy strong sign that the Fed may raise interest rates in 2015".The possibility of the US inflation rate rose to 2 percent above the end of 2016 was 50%.Compared to last week, the situation in Greece, "a little less worrying."

BlackRock CEO Larry Fink says "Fed rate hike will make more money into the bond market, rather than less. The Fed is expected to begin normalizing interest rate path".

Barclays says, if gold prices fell below $ 1,100.00 an ounce, the gold production will be vulnerable.

At today's Asian session, the metal fell very badly. A new week started on a bearish note at $1,133.90 low made at $1,087.20, fell 4% in a short span of time. After touching a descending lower end of a channel, it bounce back above $1,100.00.

The metal has been reaching lower tops and lower bottoms breaking below the large bearish head & shoulder pattern. In all time frames, the precious metal lost all moving averages.

Earlier, we forecasted that the daily close below $1,139.00 would open gates towards $1,129.00 and $1,122.00.

Intraday support is found at $1,104.00, $1,096.00, and $1,087.00. Resistance is seen at $1,111.00, $1,120.00, and $1,134.00.

The weekly support is found at $1,085.00, $1,068.00, and $1,060.00.

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Technical analysis of AUD/USD for July 20, 2015

Ahead of the major events, the aussie is trading lower against USD. Monetary policy meeting minutes ate due today, data on CPI and speech of RBA governor Stevens are scheduled for tomorrow.

Today, the pair opened on a bearish note. The nearest support zone is found at 0.7330, 0.7300, and 0.7250. In the daily chart, the pair closed below a neckline of a bearish h&s pattern. This indicates further lows in the coming weeks. The weekly resistance is seen at 0.7380, 0.7420, and 0.7500. Earlier, the pair made a double top at 0.7500. Use rises to sell until the price closes below 0.7500.

At the intraday session, selling is available below 0.7330 with targets at 0.7300, 0.7250, and 0.7220.

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Technical analysis of GBP/USD for July 20, 2015

The cable managed to paused its 3-week falling streak and gained 0.7% in the previous week.

The cable has been movinf towards higher lows and higher highs in the daily chart. It rejected at 20Dsma at yesterday's session again. It was the 4th consecutive day in a row. The near-term picture turns bearish as the cable is likely to re-test 1.5500.

Earlier in July, the cable broke the 20Dsma, but it was unable to close above that level. It seems to be capped at 1.5700 in the near term. In case of a strong close above 1.5600 20Dsma, bulls might be back on track, aiming to breake 1.5700 and open gates to 1.5800.

The cable broke a 3-month ascending trendline, being unable to close above it. These are few factors supporting the near-term bearish view towards 1.5500.

The 50Wsma is found at 1.5600 and the 20Wsma 1.5270. Bulls must close above 1.5600 this week to retain their momentum.

Recently, the S&P lowered its forecast for the British GDP growth in 2015 to 2.6 % (previously expected growth of 2.8%), but raised the forecast for the eurozone's GDP.

Bulls : The cable gave a break from the bullish broadening wedge, closing above that. The trend favors buying on dips with sl 1.5450. The 50Dsma is found at 1.5560 and 100Dema is found at 1.5440.

Intraday support is seen at 1.5575 and 1.5550 and resistance is seen at 1.5615 and 1.5650. Before further move up, the cable is likely to re-test support levels at 1.5540 and 1.5500. The intraday key level to watch is 1.5520. Selling accelerates below 1.5520 towards 1.5450.

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for July 20, 2015

The EU approved a 7.2 billion-euro bridge loan to Greece. The pair lost more than 2% during the previous week after 2 consecutive weeks of gaining.

Given the lack of macroeconomic data, it is understandably a quiet day on the markets. Things should pick up rapidly on Friday however as we don't have a number of high-impact data releases to look forward.

The pair closed below 20Wsma. It made a large distribution between 1.1467 and 1.1437. In the daily chart, the pair lost all moving averages. The parallel support is found at 1.0819, which is a previous swing low, and 1.0790. We have been advising to sell on rises at 1.0720. The 20Wsma is seen at 1.1080. The oscillators indicate oversold markets in different time intervals on the hourly and daily charts.

The pair has been moving towards lower lows and lower tops, falling below the lower end of the ascending trendline. The nearest support zone is found between 1.0820 and 1.0790. We recommend fresh selling only below 1.0780 with a target at 1.0720. Later, it is likely to extend towards 1.0630.

Intraday resistance is seen at 1.0860, 1.0880, and 1.0910. Support is found at 1.0820 and 1.0790.

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Technical analysis of GBP/USD for July 20, 2015

After forming a bearish divergence and a breakout of the uptrend trendline, GBP/USD confirmed that it lost upside momentum. This could result in either a strong correction down or a consolidation.

The Fibonacci levels applied to the trendline breakout point shows that the final target, which is 0% level - S3 (1.5299), has not been reached, although the S2 support (1.5447) has been broken. Currently, the pair is trading just below the R1 (1.5614) resistance that could be a bouncing point to start a wave down.

Consider selling GBP/USD while it is trading near R1 with a target at S3 (1.53) area. Only a daily close above R2 (1.5688) might resume the long-term trend up.

Support: 1.5540, 1.5447, 1.5300, and 1.5168.

Resistance: 1.5614 and 1.5688.

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Daily analysis of major pairs for July 20, 2015

EUR/USD: The EUR/USD pair dropped by 280 pips last week closing below the resistance line at 1.0850. The next targets for bears are located around the support lines at 1.0800 and 1.0750. The resistance lines at 1.0950 and 1.0900 were successfully broken by bears. Thus, they might resist any rally attempts this week.

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USD/CHF: As long as the EUR/USD pair goes down, the USD/CHF pair must go up. The pair moved upwards by over 200 pips last week closing above the support level at 0.9600. A break of the support level at 0.9500 (which was formerly a resistance level) was a major achievement for bulls. Until EUR or CHF gains a lot of stamina, this pair would continue going up.

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GBP/USD: This currency trading instrument rallied last week, but the further rally was halted at the distribution territory around 1.5650. For a bullish bias to continue being valid, the distribution territory must be breached to the upside. Otherwise, there could be risk of a strong bearish correction this week.

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USD/JPY: Several weeks ago, this market began to rally from the demand level at 120.50. It rallied by over 350 pips, going slightly above the demand level at 124.00. With further buying pressure, the supply level at 124.50 would be breached this week.

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EUR/JPY: This cross first consolidated last week, but it brokeput downwards on Thursday, trending lower and lower gradually. On Friday, the price closed below the supply zone at 134.50. Since, there is a strong Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the chart, it is assumed that the southward journey would continue, especially as long as EUR is weak.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for July 20, 2015

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Technical summary:

We continue looking for an opportunity to move more upside towards 1.6915 and even 1.7050 on the way higher to the ideal target for wave (v) at 1.7154. That said wave (v) has already formed a top at 1.6812 and a larger correction is about to unfold. To indicate that a top is already in place, a break below the support at 1.6349 is needed. It will call for a continuation lower to at least 1.6035.

Trading recommendation:

We are long EUR from 1.6588 and will keep our stop at 1.6425.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for July 20, 2015

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Technical summary:

A decline from 137.80 became deeper than expected, but as long as important support at 133.27 protects the downside, we will stay cautiously bullish for a rally above minor resistance at 13527 and more importantly a break above 136.38 for a new rally to 141.06 and higer.

However, a break below 133.27 will indicate that the rally from 126.05 has been in three waves that is a sign of a corrective rally and therefore a retest of 126.05 should be expected on the way lower.

Trading recommendation:

We are long EUR from 134.07 with stop placed at 134.25. If our stop is triggered, we will re-buy EUR at 134.00 and place a stop+reverse at 133.15

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