Fundamental analysis of EUR/USD for July 31, 2017

EUR/USD has been impulsively bullish forming a non-volatile trend since it broke above the 115.00 resistance level recently. The Eurozone has posted some upbeat economic reports recently whereas USD is on losing streak amid bad economic reports which can be observed currently in the market. Though there are certain hints of USD expecting a rate hike, EUR seems to dominate further with hawkish ECB statements and positive economic reports. Today the German Retail Sales report was published with an increased value of 1.1% from the previous value of 0.5% which was expected to decrease to 0.1%. The Italian Monthly Unemployment Rate showed a slight decrease to 11.1% from the previous value of 11.3% which was expected to be at 11.2%. The CPI Flash Estimate report was published with an unchanged value at 1.3%, and the Core CPI Flash Estimate report showed a slight increase to 1.2% which was expected to be unchanged at 1.1%. Furthermore, the Italian Prelim CPI report showed a positive result at 0.1% from the previous negative value of -0.1% which was expected to be at 0.0%. Besides, the EU Unemployment Rate report showed a decrease to 9.1% which was expected to be unchanged at 9.2%. There had been good amount of positive economic reports on the EUR side today which put USD under pressure. Speaking about the US news, today the Chicago PMI report was published with worst figure at 58.9 from the previous value of 65.7 which was expected to be at 60.8. At the same time, the Pending Home Sales report showed a positive outcome with an increase to 1.5% from the previous value of -0.7% which was expected to be at 0.9%. The mixed economic reports are currently helping USD to gain over EUR but the momentum is expected to be temporary. The long-term trend is currently bullish due to the ECB hawkish statements and positive economic reports published recently.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price is currently residing above the support area of 1.1500 to 1.1620. As the impulsive phase is currently showing some exhaustion and volatility, a retracement towards the support area is expected in the coming days. If the price bounces off the support area with a daily close, we will be looking forward to buy with a target towards 1.2140 resistance level in the future. As the price remains above the support area of 1.1500-1.1620, the bullish bias is expected to continue further.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for NZD/USD for July 31, 2017

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Daily Outlook

The NZD/USD pair has been trending up within the depicted bullish channel since January 2016.

In November 2016, early signs of bullish weakness were expressed on the chart when the pair failed to record a new high above 0.7400.

A bearish breakout of the lower limit of the channel took place in December 2016.

In February 2017, the depicted short-term downtrend was initiated in the depicted supply zone (0.7310-0.7380).

However, a recent bullish breakout above the downtrend line took place on May 22. Since then, the market has been bullish as depicted on the chart.

The price zone of 0.7150-0.7230 (SUPPLY ZONE in confluence with 61.8% Fibonacci level) stood as a temporary resistance zone until a bullish breakout was expressed above 0.7230.

This resulted in a quick bullish advance towards the next supply zone around 0.7310-0.7380 which is temporarily breached to the upside.

Now the price zone of 0.7310-0.7380 turns to be a newly-established demand zone to be watched for possible bullish rejection and a possible BUY entry if any bearish pullback occurs.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for July 31, 2017

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Monthly Outlook

In January 2015, the EUR/USD pair moved below the major demand levels near 1.2100 (multiple previous bottoms set in July 2012 and June 2010). Hence, a long-term bearish target is projected toward 0.9450.

In March 2015, EUR/USD bears challenged the monthly demand level around 1.0500, which had been previously reached in August 1997.

In the longer term, the level of 0.9450 will remain a projected target if any monthly candlestick achieves bearish closure below the depicted monthly demand level of 1.0500.

The EUR/USD pair remains trapped within the depicted consolidation range (1.0500-1.1450) until a breakout in either direction is confirmed on the monthly time frame.

The current bullish breakout above 1.1450 allows a quick bullish advance towards 1.1710, 1.1850 and 1.2000.

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Daily Outlook

In January 2017, the previous downtrend reversed when the Head and Shoulders pattern was established around 1.0500. Since then, evident bullish momentum has been expressed on the chart.

As anticipated, the ongoing bullish momentum allowed the EUR/USD pair to pursue further advance towards 1.1415-1.1520 (Daily Supply Zone).

The daily supply zone failed to stop the ongoing bullish momentum. Instead, temporary bullish breakout is being witnessed on the chart.

The nearest supply level to meet the pair is located around 1.1720-1.1750 (the highest level since August 2015) where price action should be watched for a bearish pullback.

On the other hand, the price zone of 1.1415-1.1520 stands as a prominent DEMAND zone to be watched if a bearish pullback occurs.

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Daily analysis of USD/JPY for July 31, 2017

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Overview

The USD/JPY pair continues its decline strongly after confirming breaking 110.98 level, to approach from our main waited target at 110.15 now, noting that this level represents 76.4% Fibonacci correction level for the rise measured from 108.80 to 114.49, which means that breaking it will put the price under more negative pressure on the longer term basis and turns the main trend to the downside. The EMA50 keeps pushing negatively on the price, and as long as the price is below 112.32, we suggest the continuation of the bearish trend in the upcoming period, noting that breaking 110.15 will push the price towards 108.80 as a next main station, while breaching 110.98 will lead the price to start recovery attempts that target 112.32 areas initially. The expected trading range for today is between 109.50 support and 111.00 resistance.

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Daily analysis of GBP/JPY for July 31, 2017

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Overview

The GBP/JPY pair was forced to provide intraday sideways trading due to forming new support at 144.85, to block the waited negative release, while the stability of this support allows us to expect to form intraday bullish rebound to move towards 147.60 resistance followed by monitoring the price behavior due to the importance of this level to detect the next trend. Therefore, we will expect the bullish bias in the near term period, noting that attempting to break the current support will push the price back to the main bearish track, expecting to suffer more losses that start at 143.30 and extend to 141.60. The expected trading range for today is between 146.40 and 144.85.

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Daily analysis of Gold for July 31, 2017

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Overview

Gold price resumed its positive trading affected by the previously completed inverted head and shoulders' pattern, and the price gets continuous positive support by the EMA50, reinforcing the expectations of continuing the bullish trend on the short term basis, as our next target is located at 1295.37, while the full target of the mentioned pattern is located at 1312.00. Therefore, we will keep our bullish overview for the upcoming period conditioned by holding above 1254.56, noting that breaking this level will push the price to test 1229.32 and might extend to 1215.00 areas mainly. The expected trading range for today is between 1260.00 support and 1285.00 resistance.

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Daily analysis of Silver for July 31, 2017

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Overview

Silver price keeps its stability above 16.56 level, while it faces solid resistance at 16.80 formed by the previously broken bullish trend as appears on the chart, which means that the price needs to breach this level to ease the mission of heading towards our expected target at 17.43. In general, we will continue to suggest the bullish trend in the upcoming period as long as the price holds above 16.56, noting that breaching the targeted level will extend silver price gains to reach 18.30 as a next main station. The expected trading range for today is between 16.56 support and 16.90 resistance.

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GBP/USD analysis for July 31, 2017

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Recently, the GBP/USD has been trading downwards. The price tested the level of 1.3096. According to the 15M time frame, I found a successful breakout of the downward channel. There is also a hidden bullish divergence on the moving average which is another sign of strength. Watch for potential buying opportunities. The upward target is set at the price of 1.3150 (Friday's high).

Resistance levels:

R1: 1.3150

R2: 1.3160

R3: 1.3175

Support levels:

S1: 1.3130

S2: 1.3120

S3: 1.3110

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential buying opportunities.

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Analysis of EUR/USD for July 31, 2017

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Recently, the EUR/USD pair has been trading downwards. The price tested the level of 1.1723. According to the 15M time frame, I found that the price successfully tested the upward trendline (support). I also found a hidden bullish divergence on the moving average oscilator, which is another sign of potential strength. My advice is to watch for potential buying opportunities. The upward targets are set at the price of 1.1760 and 1.1775.

Resistance levels:

R1: 1.1755

R2: 1.1770

R3: 1.1775

Support levels:

S1: 1.1740

S2: 1.1735

S3: 1.1720

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential buying opportunities.

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RBA - Australian: I gave birth to you, I will kill you

The increase in iron ore prices to a four-month high and some slowdown in business activity in China allowed AUD / USD to enter the consolidation in the range of 0.788-0.8015. After a swift rally, as a result of which the trade-weighted rate of the "Aussie" jumped by 7% since the beginning of June, the "bulls" obviously need a breather. It is curious that everything began with the moderately optimistic rhetoric of the RBA at the previous meeting, continued after the Reserve Bank discussed the issue of a neutral rate in the protocol, and now the process can easily go back if the regulator becomes concerned about the revaluation of the national currency.

Judging by the last matches of the head of RBA Philip Lowe and his deputy Guy Debell, the management is worried about the excessive fastening of the Australian dollar. They emphasized the own way of the Reserve Bank, which will not rush into the pool of monetary restriction, following the rest. As for the neutral rate, the discussion of this issue is not a reason to expect its increase in the near future. This is the factor, according to Goldman Sachs, is the basis for sales of AUD / USD at the top. Investors are too carried away with the idea of tightening monetary policy, and soon a shadow of disappointment will fall on their shoulders. Curiously, the median estimate of the equilibrium cash rate by Bloomberg experts is 3%, RBA says about 3.5%. 2.5% - inflation, 1% - the real rate. In the second quarter, consumer prices disappointed (the rate slowed to 1.9% y / y), so it's not yet possible to wait for monetary restriction earlier this May.

And yet, the "Australian" has something to answer. The main driver of its growth is a favorable external background. The fact that the Fed is shifting the timing of the normalization of monetary policy, contributes to the growth of US stock indices, a global risk appetite and a decrease in the volatility of financial markets. In such conditions, the demand for profitable bonds is steadily rising. At the same time, Australian and New Zealand dollars are the riskiest G10 currencies.

Dynamics of AUD / USD and chances for monetary restriction of the Federal Reserve System

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Source: Bloomberg.

If we add to the above factors of restoring the positions of commodity market assets and the weakness of the US dollar, it becomes clear why the "Aussie" climbed so high. Along with iron ore, oil, gold and other assets of the raw materials market are growing, which has a positive effect on the foreign trade of the Green Continent and allows the RBA to cover up the chapter on the process of strengthening the national currency. The direction of the short-term AUD / USD campaign depends on which side the Central Bank will choose at its meeting on August 1.

Technically, the "bulls" of the pair analyzed leave no hope for the implementation of the target at 127.2% for the reversed pattern of the "Perfect Butterfly". Nevertheless, the fact that the target of 161.8% for AB = CD and the upper limit of the upward trading channel have been reached, reinforces the correction risks in the direction of 0.783 and 0.776.

AUD / USD, daily chart

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for July 31, 2017

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USD/JPY is under pressure. The pair is trading below its 20-period and 50-period moving averages, which play resistance roles and maintain the downside bias. The relative strength index is capped by a bearish trend line since July 25.

Therefore, as long as 110.95 is not surpassed, look for a further drop to 110.30 and even to 109.80 in extension.

Alternatively, if the price moves in the opposite direction, a long position is recommended above 110.95 with a target at 111.70.

Chart Explanation: The black line shows the pivot point. The current price above the pivot point indicates a bullish position while the price below the pivot point is a signal for a short position. The red lines show the support levels and the green line indicates the resistance level. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Strategy: SELL, Stop Loss: 110.95, Take Profit: 110.30

Resistance levels: 111.30, 111.70, and 112.00 Support Levels: 110.30, 109.80, 110.25

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for July 31, 2017

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USD/CHF is expected to trade with bullish bias above 0.9650. The pair is consolidating above the key support at 0.9650, which should limit the downside potential. The relative strength index lacks downward momentum. Even though a continuation of the consolidation cannot be ruled out, its extent should be limited.

The U.S. Commerce Department reported that the country's GDP grew at a 2.6% annual rate in the second quarter, higher than +1.2% in the first quarter but lower than +2.7% expected.

Therefore, above 0.9650, look for a further rise to 0.9730 and even to 0.9765 in extension.

Chart Explanation: The black line shows the pivot point; the present price above pivot point indicates the bullish position and below pivot points indicates the short position. The red lines show the support levels and the green line indicates the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Strategy: BUY, Stop Loss: 0.9650, Take Profit: 0.9730

Resistance levels: 0.9730, 0.9765, and 0.9800

Support levels: 0.9595, 0.9550, and 0.9500

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Technical analysis of GBP/JPY for July 31, 2017

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GBP/JPY is expected to trade in lower range as far as key resistance lies at 145.65. The pair broke below its 50-period moving average and is consolidating on the downside. The 20-period moving average is heading downwards and is likely to cross below the 50-period one. The relative strength index is below its neutrality level at 50 and lacks upward momentum.

As long as 145.65 holds on the upside, look for a further drop towards 144.60 and even 144.35 in extension.

Alternatively, if the price moves in the opposite direction as predicted, a long position is recommended above 145.65 with the target at 145.60.

Strategy: SELL, Stop Loss: 145.65, Take Profit: 1444.60.

Chart Explanation: the black line shows the pivot point. The price above pivot point indicates the bullish position and when it is below pivot points, it indicates a short position. The red lines show the support levels and the green line indicates the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Resistance levels: 146.60, 146.55, and 147.45

Support levels: 144.60, 144.35, and 143.75.

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for July 31, 2017

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NZD/USD is expected to trade with bearish outlook. The pair broke below its 20-period and 50-period moving averages, while the relative strength index is below it neutrality level at 50 and lacks upward momentum. Nevertheless, 0.7530 is playing a key resistance role, which should limit the upside potential.

As long as this key level is not broken, look for a technical slide towards 0.7455 and even 0.7435 in extension.

Strategy: SELL Stop Loss: 0.7530 Take Profit: 0.7455

Chart Explanation:

The black line shows the pivot point. Currently, the price is above the pivot point which indicates the bullish position. If it remains below the pivot point, it will indicate the short position. The red lines show the support levels and the green line indicates the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Resistance levels: 0.7555, 0.7575, and 0.7610

Support levels: 0.7555, 0.7575, and 0.7525

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Trading plan July 31, 2017

The big picture: Important news about the USA.

As the new week start, big news came in from the US within four days (Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday).

While on Wednesday, the July report for the private sector on employment from the ADP was issued.

Market conditions:

EURUSD

The trend is moving upward.

Nevertheless, we expect the continuation of the trend and a breakthrough at 1.1776 upward and a rate of 1.1825.

An alternative option is to sell and break the 1.1645 level lower.

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Intrigue - the USDCHF rate is clearly trying to start a new trend upward for this asset too. We see an upward rate upward as well as in USDJPY pair. It is clear that someone deceives us which is unlikely that we will see trends upward on the euro-dollar and on the dollar, at the same time. Although a few days, it was the case of the euro-franc.

But one of them will show the trend.

The pound visibly moves upward.

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Global macro overview for 31/07/2017

Global macro overview for 31/07/2017:

Slightly disappointing data from the US economy were released last Friday. The University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index final reading for the month of July increased slightly to 93.4 from the preliminary reading of 93.1, although was still below the final 95.1 for June. The reading was slightly above market expectations of 93.1, but the lowest figure since October 2016. The Current Economic Conditions Index increased to 113.4 from 112.5 in June as the overall gain was 4.0% over the year (the highest reading for 12 years). In contrast, the index of Consumer Expectations fell significantly from 83.9 to 80.5 although there was still a 3.5% annual gain.

The US consumers confidence might soon take another dip as the lack of the tax and healthcare reforms promised by Trump is getting more annoying even among the Republican Party members and citizens ( obviously Democrats were against the Trump administration reforms since the beginning, so no wonder here). The UoM Consumer Expectation sub index clearly shows the diminishing expectations for a constructive and reasonable outcome surrounding the tax and healthcare reforms. This kind of slide in consumer expectations very often precedes economic downturns and it looks like the Trump administration inability to pass their own reforms might be the important clue of a further consumer sentiment. As in any developed economy, the consumer spending and sentiment is one of the most important pillars of the gross domestic product, so any significant deep in sentiment and spending might have dire consequences for the US Dollar.

Let's now take a look at the US Dollar technical picture at the H4 timeframe. So far the bulls were unable to break out above the nearest technical resistance at the level of 94.07 and now the market is sliding towards the technical support at the level of 93.02 again. Moreover, the momentum indicator is unable to move above the fifty level despite the oversold market conditions, which indicate further weakness.

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Global macro overview for 31/07/2017

Global macro overview for 31/07/2017:

Slightly disappointing data from the US economy were released last Friday. The University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index final reading for the month of July increased slightly to 93.4 from the preliminary reading of 93.1, although was still below the final 95.1 for June. The reading was slightly above market expectations of 93.1, but the lowest figure since October 2016. The Current Economic Conditions Index increased to 113.4 from 112.5 in June as the overall gain was 4.0% over the year (the highest reading for 12 years). In contrast, the index of Consumer Expectations fell significantly from 83.9 to 80.5 although there was still a 3.5% annual gain.

The US consumers confidence might soon take another dip as the lack of the tax and healthcare reforms promised by Trump is getting more annoying even among the Republican Party members and citizens ( obviously Democrats were against the Trump administration reforms since the beginning, so no wonder here). The UoM Consumer Expectation sub index clearly shows the diminishing expectations for a constructive and reasonable outcome surrounding the tax and healthcare reforms. This kind of slide in consumer expectations very often precedes economic downturns and it looks like the Trump administration inability to pass their own reforms might be the important clue of a further consumer sentiment. As in any developed economy, the consumer spending and sentiment is one of the most important pillars of the gross domestic product, so any significant deep in sentiment and spending might have dire consequences for the US Dollar.

Let's now take a look at the US Dollar technical picture at the H4 timeframe. So far the bulls were unable to break out above the nearest technical resistance at the level of 94.07 and now the market is sliding towards the technical support at the level of 93.02 again. Moreover, the momentum indicator is unable to move above the fifty level despite the oversold market conditions, which indicate further weakness.

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Technical analysis of USDX for July 31, 2017

The US dollar index remains in a bearish trend as the price continues to make lower lows and lower highs. The index remains trapped inside a bearish channel but we have reached the important long-term support levels.

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Blue lines - bearish channel

The short-term resistance lies at 93.75-93.85 area. The support is found at 93.30. Breaking above resistance will open the way to a bigger bounce towards the cloud resistance at 94.20-94.50. Breaking support will open the way to a push lower towards 92.

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Green rectangle - long-term support area

The price is approaching the weekly 200 MA and the support area of 92-93. The trend is clearly bearish. A reversal from current levels in short-term trend could result in a bounce towards 95.50 which is our minimum bounce target.

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Technical analysis of gold for July 31, 2017

The Gold price continues to make higher highs and higher lows above our minimum target of $1,260. The trend remains bullish. A reversal from current levels is justified. Even a pull back towards $1,240.

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Blue line- trend line support

The Gold price is trading above both the tenkan- and kijun-sen indicators. Short-term support by the trend line and the kijun-sen is at $1,257. Resistance is at $1,275-80 next. There is no bearish divergence on the 4-hour chart by the oscillators.

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Black line -long-term trend line resistance

Blue line- long-term support trend line

The weekly chart is still trapped inside the triangle formation. Price remains below the black trend line coming from its all time highs. Price is above the weekly Kumo and this is a bullish sign. However, bulls will need to break above the black trend line resistance otherwise they are in danger of another rejection and a pull back towards the blue trend line support.

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Global macro overview for 31/07/2017

Global macro overview for 31/07/2017:

This week looks very busy on the financial markets, so let's take a look at the most important economic events for the coming days: NFP Payrolls, PMI/ISM, US PCE Core, Eurozine CPI, Bank of England, RBA and job market from Canada and New Zealand.

Many of the next week's US publications have a chance of influencing the FED and its decision before the September meeting. After the highest reading since August 2014 for ISM for the industry in June, the market is now expecting a correction, but the result should still point to continued recovery. PCE Core in Tuesday, the FED's favorite measure of inflation, may bury its last hope of a hike by the end of this year if it points to a further decline of 1.4%. In the report on the US labor market, the global investors will be most interested in average wages increase. Leading indicators suggest reading above expectations (about 0.3% m/m), which could bring some relief to the US Dollar.

The main events for the Euroland are the July CPI data and the first GDP reading for Q2 (released on Tuesday), but they are unlikely to be able to clearly disrupt the recent trend of the EUR/USD. As long as the ECB does not show signs of concern about the effects of a strong currency for the economy (weakening of exports, deflation imports), the market participants will still be buying the dips. Unexpected verbal interventions are now the biggest enemy of the EUR/USD rally.

In the UK, the market has already abandoned expectations of a rapid interest rate hike, but the Bank of England decision on Thursday may still be interesting. The global investors will pay attention to the distribution of the MPC votes, that recently it was 3-5 for a raise. The Inflation Report can offer insight into the outlook for inflation, which gained momentum after the recent drop in CPI. The British Pound has recently descended from the foreground and next week's events might not necessarily change that.

The Japanese calendar does not contain important publications, so USD/JPY will only be subject to general sentiment and a change in the US Treasury Bond market.

The Reserve bank of Austrailia will make the interest rate decision on Tuesday. No change is expected and the positive outlook for the economic outlook should be reiterated in the Rate Statement. At the same time, the RBA will seek to cut off the rising expectations of a rate hike following a growing general trend among other central banks. Still, it will not be a big surprise, as recent comments from Lowe's president and vice-president Dabelle pointed to the "difference" of the RBA.

Let's now take a look at the AUD/USD technical picture at the H4 timeframe. After the recent high at the level of 0.8065, the price is now slowly moving lower towards the level of 0.7874, the most important technical support for the bulls. Any breakout below this level might deepen the correction to the level of 0.7838 and even 0.7777.

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Trading plan for 31/07/2017

Trading plan for 31/07/2017:

The US Dollar begins the week a little bit stronger as EUR/USD is at 1.1730 and USD/JPY is back at 110.50. A slightly weaker than expected PMI from China has not caused negative sentiment on the Asian stock exchanges. Industrial metals are strong; Iron Ore is about 8% higher which also supports Copper. The WTI Crude Oil price is approaching $50 a barrel and is rising today by 0.3%.

On Monday 31st of July, the event calendar is quite busy with important economic releases. At the beginning of the London session, Germany will release the Retail Sales data and Italy will unveil the Unemployment Rate data. Later, the UK will provide the Net Lending to individuals and Mortgage Approvals data. The Unemployment Rate and Consumer Price Index from the EU will be released next. Durning the US session, Canada will post the Raw material Price Index data and the US will provide the Pending Home Sales and Chicago Purchasing Manager Index data.

EUR/SUD analysis for 21/07/2017:

The Eurozone Consumer Price Index Flash Estimate and Unemployment Rate are scheduled for release at 09:00 am GMT and market participants expect the CPI to stay unchanged at the level of 1.3% on a yearly basis and the Unemployment Rate to decrease from 9.3% to 9.2%. After acceleration in the first quarter, the inflationary pressures eased in the recent months. The downward trend is expected to stabilize over the summer months and possibly pick up during the second half of the year. If the CPI projection of 1.3% is right, the data will offer fresh justification for the European Central Bank to begin tightening monetary policy as in the recent months the ECB was under pressure to start lifting its 0% interest rate policy.

Let's now take a look at the EUR/USD technical picture at the H1 timeframe. The market is trading close to the recent highs around the level of 1.1775 in overbought market conditions. The next important technical support is seen at the level of 1.1617 and only a sustained break below this level would put the bears back into control over this market again. The intraday important support is seen at the level of 1.1711 and it might be tested if the CPI data do not beat the expectations.

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Market Snapshot: Crude Oil under important resistance

The barrel of WTI is rising today for the sixth session in a row and is approaching the $50 barrier. At the same time, the price is close to the 76%Fibo retracement of the previous swing down and 61.8%Fibo retracement of the decline recorded since the first half of April. In addition, the price is currently testing the upper band of the golden upward channel. The confluence of such significant resistances and overbought market conditions indicate that short-term correction might occur any time now. The next technical support is seen at the level of $48.65.

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Market Snapshot: GBP/USD unable to break out higher

After a few attempts, the price of GBP/USD is still unable to break out above the technical resistance at the level of 1.3161. The next important support is seen at the level of 1.3050 and if this level is clearly violated, then the nave trend line will provide no support anymore. The overbough market conditions support the short-term bearish bias.

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Daily analysis of major pairs for July 31, 2017

EUR/USD: The EUR/USD has generally been bullish this year, and the bullishness was continued last week. Price went north by 100 pips, testing the resistance line at 1.1750. There are additional resistance levels at 1.1800 and 1.1850, which could be tested before a considerable correction occurs. The outlook on EUR pairs is bearish for this week, but bullish for August.

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USD/CHF: Both the USD/CHF and the EUR/USD are now bullish – a rare occurrence. Both of them are normally negatively correlated, but the bullishness in the USD/CHF was brought about by an exponential weakness in CHF, which is expected to be reversed this week, for CHF would regain its losses. Thus, it is expected that CHF pairs would be strong this week and in August (while the CHF/JPY goes south).

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GBP/USD: The GBP/USD managed to go upwards last week, in what can be called a positive correlation with the EUR/USD. Price tested the distribution territory at 1.3150 repeatedly and it could breach it to the upside this week. Then another distribution territories at 1.3200 and 1.3250 would be aimed. In August 2017, there would be mixed results on GBP pairs.

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USD/JPY: In spite of bulls' attempt to push this market upwards, the movement last week was generally bearish. The demand level at 110.50 is now being targeted (after price closed below the supply level at 111.00 on Friday). Once the demand level is breached, another demand level at 110.00 and 109.50 would be targeted. The outlook on JPY pairs for this week and for August is bearish.

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EUR/JPY: The EUR/JPY has been consolidating for about two weeks, thus causing a short-term neutral bias on the market. This week, price would either move above the supply zone at 130.50, to help emphasize a bullish outlook, or it would go below the demand zone at 128.00 to help emphasize a bearish outlook. One of the two possibilities would materialize within the next several trading days.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for July 31, 2017

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Wave summary:

We continue to look for a break above 1.5780 and more importantly a break above resistance at 1.5899 to confirm red wave iii/ higher towards 1.6236. That said, as long as minor resistance at 1.5780 is able to cap the upside, a continued sideways consolidation remains expected.

Only an unexpected break below 1.5419 will call for a deeper correction in red wave ii.

R3: 1.5899

R2: 1.5790

R1: 1.5699

Pivot: 1.5650

S1: 1.5570

S2: 1.5492

S3: 1.5419

Trading recommendation:

We are long EUR from 1.5510 with stop placed at 1.5410. If you are not long EUR yet, then buy a break above 1.5790 and start by using the same stop at 1.5410.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for July 31, 2017

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Wave summary:

Short-term important support at 130.77 held once again, but we do not expect this minor decline. The pair will move lower than 129.30 before turning higher again to try to break above resistance at 130.77 for a continuation higher towards 133.46.

Only an unexpected break below minor support at 128.90 will confirm that wave iv has not completed yet, but the potential downside still should remain limited.

R3: 130.41

R2: 130.10

R1: 128.84

Pivot: 129.75

S1: 129.53

S2: 129.30

S3: 128.90

Trading recommendation:

We are long EUR from 129.75 with stop placed at 129.15 and take-profit at 133.20.

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for July 31, 2017

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When the European market opens, some economic data will be released such as unemployment rate, Italian flash CPI m/m, core CPI flash estimate y/y, CPI flash estimate y/y, Italian monthly unemployment rate, and German retail sales m/m. The US will release its pending home sales m/m and Chicago PMI. So amid the reports, the EUR/USD will move in a low to medium volatility today.

Today's technical levels:

Breakout buy Level: 1.1804.

Strong resistance:1.1797.

Original resistance: 1.1786.

Inner sell area: 1.1775.

Target inner area: 1.1747.

Inner buy area: 1.1719.

Original support: 1.1708.

Strong support: 1.1697.

Breakout sell level: 1.1690.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for July 31, 2017

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In Asia, Japan will release its Housing Starts y/y, preliminary industrial production m/m, while the US will release some economic data such as Pending Home Sales m/m and Chicago PMI. So there is a probability the USD/JPY will move with low to medium volatility today.

Today's technical levels:

Resistance. 3: 110.98.

Resistance. 2: 110.77.

Resistance. 1: 110.55.

Support. 1: 110.28.

Support. 2: 110.07.

Support. 3: 109.85.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

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EUR/USD testing major resistance, remain bearish

Price is testing major resistance at 1.1760 (Fibonacci extension, horizontal swing high resistance) and we expect a drop from this level to at least 1.1649 support (Fibonacci retracement, Fibonacci extension, horizontal swing low support). It is important to keep an eye out for the ascending support line that has held price up really well. Only a break of that level would open a stronger drop towards our profit target.

Stochastic (34,5,3) is seeing a strong resistance below our 98% level.

Sell below 1.1760. Stop loss at 1.1798. Take profit at 1.1649.

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AUD/USD right on major support, prepare to buy for a bounce

Price is now testing major support at 0.7969 (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap support) and we expect a bounce above this level for a rise at least to 0.8066 resistance (Fibonacci extension, horizontal swing high resistance).

RSI (34) is seeing a pullback support to our descending resistance-turned-support line and we expect it make a bounce off from here similarly to the bounce we are expecting on price.

Buy above 0.7969. Stop loss at 0.7911. Take profit at 0.8066.

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NZD/USD approaching profit target, remain bullish

Price touched our buy entry and shot up perfectly towards our profit target. We remain bullish looking to buy on dips above 0.7484 support (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap support) for a further push up towards 0.7549 resistance (Fibonacci extension, horizontal swing high resistance). We move our stop loss to 0.7457 to protect our profits.

Stochastic (34,5,3) is bouncing up nicely from our support previously and still has some good upside potential that corresponds to the rise we are expecting on price.

Buy above 0.7484. Stop loss at 0.7457. Take profit at 0.7549.

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EUR/JPY profit target reached perfectly. Prepare to buy on major support

Price has bounced off our buying area perfectly and has reached our profit target. We prepare to buy above 129.56 support once again (Fibonacci retracement, Fibonacci extension, horizontal overlap support) for a push up to at least 130.78 resistance (Fibonacci extension, horizontal swing high resistance).

Stochastic (34,5,3) is seeing a strong support above 7.5%, from where we expect a further bounce.

Buy above 129.56. Stop loss at 129.20. Take profit at 130.78.

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AUD/JPY dropping perfectly from our selling area, remain bearish for a further drop

Price has reached our selling area and dropped perfectly from there towards our profit target. We remain bearish looking to sell below 88.83 resistance (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap resistance) for a push down to at least 87.65 support (Fibonacci extension, horizontal swing low support).

Stochastic (34,5,3) is seeing a major resistance below 95% and we also see a bearish exit, signalling that a change in momentum has occurred. It still has some downside potential that goes in line with the drop we are expecting on price.

Correlation analysis: we are seeing JPY strength with AUD/JPY and USD/JPY expecting drops.

Sell below 88.83. Stop loss at 89.35. Take profit at 87.65.

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USD/JPY profit target reached, remain bearish for a further drop

Price has dropped perfectly from our selling area last week and has reached our profit target. We remain bearish below major resistance at 110.75 (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal pullback resistance) for a further push down towards 111.37 support (Fibonacci extension, Elliott wave theory).

Stochastic (21,5,3) continues to see strong a downside pressure for a final push down in price.

Correlation analysis: We are seeing JPY strength with AUDJPY and USDJPY expecting drops.

Sell below 110.75. Stop loss at 111.37. Take profit at 109.80.

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for July 31, 2017

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Overview:

The EUR/USD pair is showing signs of strength following a breakout of the highest level of 1.1689. In the H1 chart, the level of 1.1689 coincides with 78.6% of Fibonacci, which is expected to act as a minor support today. Since the trend is above the 78.6% Fibonacci level, the market is still in an uptrend. But, the major support is seen at the level of 1.1689. Furthermore, the trend is still showing strength above the moving average (100). Thus, the market is indicating a bullish opportunity above the above-mentioned support levels, for that the bullish outlook remains the same as long as the 100 EMA is headed to the upside. Therefore, the strong support will be found at the level of 1.1689 providing a clear signal to buy with a target seen at 1.1776 (the double top). If the trend breaks the minor resistance at 1.1776, the pair will move upwards, continuing the bullish trend development to the level 1.1832 in order to test the daily resistance 1. However, the stop loss should be placed below the support levle of 1.1621.

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Technical analysis of GBP/USD for July 31, 2017

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Overview:

  • In the four-hour chart, the GBP/USD pair is in the bullish trend from the support levels of 1.3036 and 1.3091. Currently, the price is in a bullish channel. This is confirmed by the RSI indicator signaling that we are still in a bullish trending market. As the price is still above the moving average (100), immediate support is seen at 1.3091, which coincides with a golden ratio (78.6% of Fibonacci). Consequently, the first support is set at the level of 1.3091. So, the market is likely to show signs of a bullish trend around the spot of 1.3091/1.3100. In other words, buy orders are recommended above the spot of 1.3100 with the first target at the level of 1.3230. Furthermore, if the trend breaks through the first resistance level of 1.3230, the pair will move upwards continuing the development of the bullish trend to the level 1.3307 in order to test the weekly resistance 2. On the other hand, it would also be wise to consider where to place a stop loss; this should be set below the second support of 1.2940.
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Daily analysis of USDX for July 31, 2017

The USDX is still below the 200 SMA in thet H1 chart and it is forming a possible double bottom around the 93.25 level. THe weakness is limited and we can expect some consolidation moves in the first days of the week. However, if the 93.25 level gives up, further declines are expected to happen towards 92.29 level.

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H1 chart's resistance levels: 94.00 / 94.57

H1 chart's support levels: 93.25 / 92.29

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place sell (short) orders only if the USD index breaks with a bearish candlestick; the support level is at 93.25, take profit is at 92.29 and stop loss is at 94.20.

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Daily analysis of GBP/USD for July 31, 2017

GBP/USD remains finding resistance around 1.3153 and the bullish path continues to strengthen. The price action is consolidated above the 200 SMA at H1 chart and it points to more gains in the short-term and if that level gives up, then we might expect more rallies towards the 1.3257 level. The MACD indicator is still in the positive territory, favoring to the bulls.

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H1 chart's resistance levels: 1.3153 / 1.3257

H1 chart's support levels: 1.3058 / 1.2962

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, buy (long) orders only if the GBP/USD pair breaks a bullish candlestick; the resistance level is at 1.3153, take profit is at 1.3257 and stop loss is at 1.3051.

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Daily analysis of USD/JPY for July 28, 2017

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Overview

The USD/JPY pair tested the first key resistance at 111.65 and bounced bearishly from there, as the EMA50 met the mentioned resistance to add more strength to it, which keeps the bearish trend scenario valid until now, and the price needs to break 110.98 level to confirm heading towards 110.15 as a next main target. Stochastic provides a negative overlapping signal that supports the expected decline, while the bearish bias will remain suggested unless breaching 111.65 followed by 112.32 levels and holding above them. The expected trading range for today is between 110.00 support and 111.65 resistance.

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Daily analysis of GBP/JPY for July 28, 2017

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Overview

The GBP/JPY pair repeated providing negative close below the main resistance level at 147.60 level, to confirm the domination of the bearish bias domination, by the above image, we notice stochastic attempt to form new bearish wave that opens the way towards gathering new negative momentum, which supports the attempt of renewing the negative attack, that targets 14.30 level as a first negative station, then wait until reaching the critical support at 141.40. Note that surpassing 144.60 level for today is important to confirm surpassing the sideways fluctuation, to open the way towards resuming the negative attack and achieving the suggested targets. The expected trading range for today is between 147.00 and 143.50.

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Daily analysis of Gold for July 28, 2017

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Overview

The Gold price is retesting the previously breached neckline of the inverted head and shoulders' pattern that appears on the above chart keeping its stability above it, to keep the positive effect of this pattern active, and the price gets positive support by the EMA50, while stochastic gets rid of its negative momentum gradually. Therefore, these factors encourage us to keep our bullish overview in the upcoming sessions, waiting to head towards 1295.37 that represents our next main target, noting that the continuation of the bullish trend depends on holding above 1254.56 and 1244.00 levels. The expected trading range for today is between 1250.00 support and 1280.00 resistance.

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Daily analysis of Silver for July 28, 2017

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Overview

Silver price fluctuates around the support base formed above 16.56 level after breaching it previously and keeps its stability above it until now, which keeps the bullish trend scenario valid until now, waiting to head towards 17.43 that represents the next main target. Therefore, we will continue to suggest the bullish trend for today unless breaking 16.56 level and holding below it, reminding you that breaking this level will push the price to test 15.49 areas again. The expected trading range for today is between 16.45 support and 16.80 resistance.

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