Elliott wave analysis of GBP/JPY for September 16, 2019

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GBP/JPY continues moving higher and has almost tested the 135.40 target. We are still looking for a more substantial correction, but it is likely, as this correction only will test strong support near 130.78 before moving higher again towards 137.60 and 140.34 as the next upside targets.

In the short term, a break below minor support at 134.03 will indicate more downside pressure towards 130.78 to complete red wave ii and set the stage for a new impulsive rally towards 137.60

R3: 137.69

R2: 136.32

R1: 135.40

Pivot; 134.03

S1: 133.63

S2: 133.18

S3: 132.69

Trading recommendation:

We are looking for a buying opportunity near 131.15.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for September 16, 2019

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The channel resistance line held the first attempt and caused a minor correction to 118.95 as expected. This could be enough correction in red wave ii for a second attempt to break through the resistance line for a run towards 125.40 as red wave iii extends higher.

However, if EUR/JPY fails to break above the trend-line, resistance red wave ii will need more time to develop and could move closer to support in the 118.41 - 118.68 area before being ready to take on the resistancenline for real

R3: 120.70

R2: 120.30

R1: 120.00

Pivot: 119.51

S1: 119.27

S2: 118.95

S3: 118.68

Trading recommendation:

We are long EUR from 118.25 with our stop placed at 117.50

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Indicator analysis. Daily review on September 16, 2019 for the GBP / USD currency pair

Trend analysis (Fig. 1).

On Monday, the price, after testing the pullback level of 38.2% - 1.2503 (yellow dashed line), may begin a pullback downward movement with the target 1.2426 - a pullback level of 14.6% (blue dashed line).

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Fig. 1 (daily chart).

Comprehensive analysis:

- indicator analysis - down;

- Fibonacci levels - down;

- volumes - down;

- candlestick analysis - down;

- trend analysis - up;

- Bollinger Lines - up;

- weekly schedule - up.

General conclusion:

On Monday, the price may begin to move down.

An unlikely scenario is an upward movement, with the target of 1.2671 - a pullback level of 50.0% (yellow dashed line).

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GBP/USD: plan for the European session on September 16. The pound strengthens ahead of the important meeting of Johnson and

To open long positions on GBP/USD you need:

The good news that the UK government has drafted changes to the Brexit agreement related to the Irish border and is ready to submit them today has returned demand for the British pound last Friday. At the moment, the target of the bulls is the resistance of 1.2496, however, a larger growth above this range may be limited by the highs of 1.2534 and 1.2563, where I recommend taking profit on long positions. Also, the likelihood of divergence on the MACD can hinder growth. A more optimal scenario for GBP/USD purchases would be a downward correction and the formation of a false breakdown in the support area of 1.2446. Otherwise, it is best to open long positions immediately on the rebound from a low of 1.2397.

To open short positions on GBP/USD you need:

Bears will be waiting for the result of the meeting between Boris Johnson and Juncker, as well as the formation of divergence on the MACD indicator, which may occur after an update of resistance at 1.2496 today in the morning. However, the main task of sellers is to break through and consolidate below the support of 1.2446, which will raise pressure on GBP/USD and push the pair even lower to the support area 1.2397 and 1.2345, where I recommend taking profits. If the meeting is successful, this will be an additional incentive for growth above the resistance of 1.2496. In this scenario, it is best to consider new short positions in the pound after updating the highs of 1.2534 and 1.2563.

Signals of indicators:

Moving averages

Trade is conducted above 30 and 50 moving averages, which indicates that the pound will continue to grow.

Bollinger bands

In case the pound declines, support will be provided by the lower boundary at 1.2446. A breakthrough of the upper boundary of the indicator in the region of 1.2500 may lead to a new wave of growth for the pair.

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Description of indicators

  • MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow
  • MA (moving average) 30 days - green
  • MACD: Fast EMA 12, Slow EMA 26, SMA 9
  • Bollinger Bands 20
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Indicator analysis. Daily review on September 16, 2019 for the EUR / USD currency pair

Trend analysis (Fig. 1).

On Monday, it is possible to continue the upward movement with the target of 1.1111 - the upper fractal.

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Fig. 1 (daily chart).

Comprehensive analysis:

- indicator analysis - up;

- Fibonacci levels - up;

- volumes - up;

- candlestick analysis - up;

- trend analysis - up;

- Bollinger Lines - up;

- weekly schedule - up.

General conclusion:

On Monday, the upward movement will continue.

The first upper target 1.1089 is a pullback level of 50.0.% (yellow dashed line). Upon reaching this level, we should wait for the pullback down and look for the entry point up at the level of 1.1040 - pullback level 38.2% (blue dashed line). The next upper target 1.1127 is the pullback level 61.8% (yellow dashed line).

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Control zones for USD / JPY pair on 09/16/19

At the beginning of this week, the main support is 1/2 WCZ of 107.25-107.16. Testing this zone will allow you to consider the pattern for the purchase. The first growth target will be last week's high. Further growth will depend on whether the yen can gain a foothold above the extremum.

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Now, we can see the formation of a local accumulation zone, which determine the further priority of the pair. In most cases, going beyond it will indicate the direction of bidding in the second half of the week.

An alternative model will be developed if the pair continues to grow from current levels. This model also has a high probability due to the opening of trading with a price gap. The absorption of the price gap usually occurs in the near future.

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Daily CZ - daily control zone. The area formed by important data from the futures market, which changes several times a year.

Weekly CZ - weekly control zone. The area formed by marks from the important futures market, which changes several times a year.

Monthly CZ - monthly control zone. The area is a reflection of the average volatility over the past year.

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Technical analysis of ETH/USD for 16/09/2019

Crypto Industry News:

The head of the non-profit organization behind the digital currency Libra said the company is committed to launching it and removing regulatory obstacles.

Bertrand Perez, CEO of the Libra Association said the token should appear in the second half of 2020.

Comments appeared on the day when the French minister of economy and finance said that the country would refuse Libra to operate within its borders. Concerns about financial stability fueled dislike, and Bruno Le Maire suggested that he wanted the European Union to adopt a hostile position on Libra.

According to Perez, Facebook does not want to create new money resources using a token. He used the comparison to BlackRock, the largest asset management company in the world, saying that the social media giant does not want to compete in this market.

"We don't want to become a new BlackRock. Therefore, concerns about the destabilizing effect of our reserve currency on the central bank fiduciary currencies - which are in our basket - seem unfounded," said Perez.

Perez also confirmed that Libra will be associated with selected major international currencies, but not with Chinese yuan.

Technical Market Overview:

The ETH/USD pair keeps rallying higher and the last local high was made at the level of $194.72. The next target for bulls is seen at the level of $196.76, which is a swing high. The momentum is increasing as well, so the rally might continue even higher, just as Elliott Wave theory scenario proposed last week. The low for the wave Z of the wave 2 of the higher degree is in place at the level of $162.78 already, so now the market might continue with the impulsive wave 3 to the upside. The nearest technical support is seen at the level of $186.70.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - $212.96

WR2 - $200.24

WR1 - $196.12

Weekly Pivot - $184.92

WS1 - $179.10

WS2 - $168.22

WS3 - $163.07

Trading Recommendations:

The best strategy in the current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is still up. All the shorter timeframe moves are being treated as a correction inside of the uptrend. The current cycle is wave 2 of the lower wave degree and it might have been completed, so the uptrend should resume soon. The global investors are waiting for a breakout above the level of $202.59 and $238.68 to confirm the resumption of the uptrend.

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Technical analysis of BTC/USD for 16/09/2019

Crypto Industry News:

French Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire said that Europe should consider its own "public digital currency" that could challenge Libra Facebook. The minister's comments - the latest from a series of high-profile doubts about the cryptocurrency plans of the social media giant - were reported by Reuters.

At the EU Finance Ministers' meeting in Helsinki, Le Maire told reporters that next month he would talk about the potential of the European public digital currency with his counterparts on the continent.

He also confirmed his fears that the proposed stablecoin Libra may pose a threat to consumers, financial stability and even "sovereignty of European countries". Le Maire called on the European bloc to continue work on reducing the cost of cross-border payments.

Real-time payments in the euro area have been available since 2017, but the program has attracted only about half of the block's banks. In addition, the project is currently focused largely on national payments.

In addition to these proposals, Le Maire said the bloc must rethink its approach to regulating cryptocurrencies at EU level. Repeating his calls for refusing to approve the launch of Libra in the European Union, Le Maire argued that the current suspension - in which regulators are still debating whether to regulate cryptocurrencies as securities, payment services or currencies - must be resolved by creating a solid and common legal framework.

Technical Market Overview:

The BTC/USD pair keeps trading inside of the horizontal price range located between the levels of $10,211 - $10,381. So far the bulls have only managed to retrace 50% of the last move down in the wave (2) of a higher degree and the momentum is not increasing as well. The next target for them is seen at the level of $10,469 and it needs to be violated in impulsive fashion in order to continue the up move, otherwise, the whole Elliott Wave scenario will be changed and updated.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - $11,232

WR2 - $10,847

WR1 - $10,552

Weekly Pivot - $10,174

WS1 - $9,851

WS2 - $9,477

WS3 - $9,160

Trading Recommendations:

The best strategy in the current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is still up. All the shorter timeframe moves are being treated as a correction inside of the uptrend. The wave 2 corrective cycles are about to be completed and the market might be ready for another impulsive wave up of a higher degree. Any violation of the level of $9,231 invalidates the bullish impulsive scenario.

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Technical analysis of GBP/USD for 16/09/2019

Technical Market Overview:

The GBP/USD pair has made another higher high on its way up and this high is located at the level of 1.2504. This level is very important from the weekly timeframe point of view as well because it is a weekly technical resistance that the market has hit after a strong bounce from this year's low at the level of 1.1957. Please keep an eye on how this key level will be played by the market participants, because of the overbought conditions. The momentum remains strong and positive, so the bulls can still make pressure on higher price levels. The nearest technical support is seen at the level of 1.2381.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.2885

WR2 - 1.268

WR1 - 1.2601

Weekly Pivot - 1.2422

WS1 - 1.2331

WS2 - 1.2133

WS3 - 1.2067

Trading Recommendations:

The best strategy for current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is down. All upward moves will be treated as local corrections in the downtrend. In order to reverse the trend from down to up, the key level for bulls is seen at 1.2505 and it must be clearly violated. As long as the price is trading below this level, the downtrend continues towards the level of 1.2000 and below.

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for 16/09/2019

Technical Market Overview:

The EUR/USD pair after the recent sudden rally towards the level of 61% of the Fibonacci retracement is now pulling-back a little and consolidating the recent gains. The new local high was made at the level of 1.1109 in overbought market conditions. The momentum remains positive, but weaker now that during the rally higher. In order to continue the move higher, bulls should break through the next technical resistance located at the level of 1.1160. The nearest support is seen at the level of 1.1034.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.1336

WR2 - 1.1226

WR1 - 1.1152

Weekly Pivot - 1.1040

WS1 - 1.0980

WS2 - 1.0859

WS3 - 1.0789

Trading Recommendations:

The best strategy for current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is down. All upward moves will be treated as local corrections in the downtrend. The downtrend is valid as long as it is terminated or the level of 1.1445 clearly violated. There is an Ending Diagonal price pattern visible on the larget timeframes that indicate a possible downtrend termination soon. The key short-term levels are technical support at the level of 1.0926 and the technical resistance at the level of 1.1267.

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Technical analysis: Important Intraday Levels For EUR/USD, September 16, 2019

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When the European market opens, no economic data will be released from the euro zone, but the US will release the economic data such as Empire State Manufacturing Index, so amid the reports, the EUR/USD pair will move with low to medium volatility during this day. TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVELS: Breakout BUY Level: 1.1137. Strong Resistance: 1.1131. Original Resistance: 1.1120. Inner Sell Area: 1.1109. Target Inner Area: 1.1084. Inner Buy Area: 1.1059. Original Support: 1.1048. Strong Support: 1.1037. Breakout SELL Level: 1.1031. (Disclaimer)The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis: Important Intraday Levels for USD/JPY, September 16, 2019

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In Asia, Japan will not release any economic data today, while the US will publish only the Empire State Manufacturing Index. So there is a probability the USD/JPY pair will move with low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVELS:

Resistance.3 : 108.26.

Resistance. 2: 108.05.

Resistance. 1: 107.84.

Support. 1: 107.57.

Support. 2: 107.36.

Support. 3: 107.15.

(Disclaimer)

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EUR/USD under bearish pressure, potential for further drop!

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EURUSD is facing bearish pressure from our first resistance.

Entry: 1.11082

Why it's good : horizontal swing high resistance, 76.4% fibonacci retracement

Stop Loss : 1.11530

Why it's good : horizontal swing high resistance

Take Profit : 1.10205

Why it's good: 61.8% fibonacci extension, 50% fibonacci retracement

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EUR/USD under bearish pressure, potential for further drop!

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EURUSD is facing bearish pressure from our first resistance.

Entry: 1.11082

Why it's good : horizontal swing high resistance, 76.4% fibonacci retracement

Stop Loss : 1.11530

Why it's good : horizontal swing high resistance

Take Profit : 1.10205

Why it's good: 61.8% fibonacci extension, 50% fibonacci retracement

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EUR/USD under bearish pressure, potential for further drop!

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EURUSD is facing bearish pressure from our first resistance.

Entry: 1.11082

Why it's good : horizontal swing high resistance, 76.4% fibonacci retracement

Stop Loss : 1.11530

Why it's good : horizontal swing high resistance

Take Profit : 1.10205

Why it's good: 61.8% fibonacci extension, 50% fibonacci retracement

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Control zones USDCAD 09/16/19

Priority upward movement sets the direction of trade. The probability of a weekly control zone test 1.3326-1.3308 is 70%. The main support is WCZ 1/2 1.3196-1.3188. A test of this zone will allow you to get the best prices for the purchase. Finding the "false breakdown" pattern of the Friday low is the main plan for today.

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Buying from current levels is also profitable, since the probability of closing the price gap is quite high, and a local low has already been formed.

An alternative model will be the decline, which will be developed in the event that the closure of today's trading occurs below the WCZ 1/2. This will cancel the upward model and force a change in the direction of tomorrow's trade. The probability of implementing this model is 30%, which makes it an auxiliary.

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Daily CZ - daily control zone. The area formed by important data from the futures market, which change several times a year.

Weekly CZ - weekly control zone. The zone formed by important marks of the futures market, which change several times a year.

Monthly CZ - monthly control zone. The zone, which is a reflection of the average volatility over the past year.

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Forecast for EUR/USD on September 16, 2019

EUR/USD

On Friday and this Monday morning, the euro lingered on the resistance of the balance line and the Fibonacci level of 123.6% of the daily scale. The euro is still calm about the price growth of oil and gold this morning due to an attack by drones on oil rigs in Saudi Arabia. Oil has jumped 9.56% since the opening of the session. According to media reports, oil production in this country fell by 50%, which seems unlikely. Nevertheless, an impetus has been set, and with the increase in oil prices, the euro is likely to continue to grow, the target of which will be the area where the line of the price channel, the Fibonacci level is 110.0% and the MACD line at the price of 1.1152.

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On a four-hour chart, the price is supported by the balance line (indicator red), the signal line of the Marlin oscillator is in the growth zone. In the framework of the main increasing scenario, the euro may drop, but not lower than the support of the MACD line on H4 (1.1023). Leaving below opens an alternative scenario with the prospect of a decline to 1.0926.

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Forecast for USD / JPY pair on September 16, 2019

USD / JPY pair

Today, the Japanese yen opened as a safe haven with a 60-point decline gap in connection with the drone attack on oil rigs in Saudi Arabia over the weekend, primarily by the state-owned company, Saudi Aramco. We are not inclined to give this diversion a deeply negative outlook. Rather, we are waiting for the situation to calm down and the recovery of production volumes in Saudi Arabia, as well as the further growth of the USD/JPY pair. Also, US President Trump allowed selling oil from strategic reserves not only inside the United States but also on the foreign market.

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On the daily chart, the price has the tendency to recover to Friday levels and probably to work out the target of 108.35 on the line of the red price channel.

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The four-hour chart shows that the week opened exactly from the MACD line. Now, this line is acquiring strategic importance. The price drop below 107.50 opens a "bearish" goal to 107.18 (support of the green price channel on daily) and the MACD line of 106.50, also on the daily.

In the main scenario, growth is likely to continue to 108.35 or around 109.20 and 109.58.

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USD/CAD bounce above support

Description :

USDCAD bounce above support expected.

Entry: 1.32120

Why it's good : Horizontal graphical resistance, 50% Fibonacci retracement, Elliot Wave 4 target

Take Profit : 1.3290

Why it's good: 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, 100% Fibonacci extension, Horizontal graphical support and Elliot Wave 5 target.Stop Loss: 1.31920Why it's good: 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, Horizontal graphical overlap

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Forecast for GBP/USD on September 16, 2019

GBP/USD

The British pound soared by170 points on Friday due to the main news about the EU's readiness to provide Britain with another postponement of Brexit. On the daily chart, the nearest target is 1.2543, as the intersection point of the Fibonacci level of 161.8% and the price channel line will be visually reached soon. We are waiting for a reversal or correction from this magnetic point in the main scenario. But if the optimistic Brexit plan is developed, then growth can continue after consolidation above the level. The next target in this scenario will be the Fibonacci level of 138.2% at the price of 1.2668.

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On a four-hour chart, the current price is above the lines of balance and MACD, the Marlin oscillator shows the first signs of divergence, but even if it forms, the price can complete the upper target of 1.2543. For the price to turn down or a deep correction (in the range 1.2160-1.2230), the price needs to gain a foothold below the signal level of 1.2381 (July 17 low).

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USD/JPY broke above upside confirmation, potential to rise further!

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USDJPY is approaching upside confirmation at 108.05 and could drop from here!

Entry :108.05

Why it's good :horizontal swing high resistance

100% Fibonacci extension

76.4% Fibonacci retracement

Take Profit : 109.29

Why it's good :horizontal swing high resistance

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Fractal analysis of the main currency pairs for September 16

Forecast for September 16:

Analytical review of currency pairs on the scale of H1:

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For the euro / dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.1188, 1.1135, 1.1114, 1.1086, 1.1044, 1.1021 and 1.0987. Here, we determined the subsequent goals for the top from the local ascending structure on September 12. The continuation of the movement to the top is expected after the breakdown of the level of 1.1086. In this case, the target is 1.1114. Short-term upward movement, as well as consolidation is in the range of 1.1114 - 1.1135. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level of 1.1188. The movement to which is expected after the breakdown of the level of 1.1135.

Short-term downward movement is expected in the range of 1.1044 - 1.1021. The breakdown of the last value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the target is 1.0987. This level is a key support for the upward structure.

The main trend is the local structure for the top of September 12.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.1086 Take profit: 1.1114

Buy 1.1136 Take profit: 1.1186

Sell: 1.1044 Take profit: 1.1022

Sell: 1.1018 Take profit: 1.0989

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For the pound / dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.2738, 1.2673, 1.2622, 1.2549, 1.2460, 1.2403, 1.2338 and 1.2281. Here, we determined the subsequent goals for the top from the local ascending structure on September 12. The continuation of the movement to the top is expected after the breakdown of the level of 1.2549. In this case, the target is 1.2622. Price consolidation is in the range of 1.2622 - 1.2673. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level of 1.2738. Upon reaching which, we expect a pullback to the bottom.

Short-term downward movement is expected in the range of 1.2460 - 1.2403. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the target is 1.2338. This level is a key support for the top. Its passage at the price will lead to the development of a downward structure. In this case, the first goal is 1.2281.

The main trend is the local ascending structure of September 12.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.2550 Take profit: 1.2620

Buy: 1.2674 Take profit: 1.2736

Sell: 1.2460 Take profit: 1.2405

Sell: 1.2401 Take profit: 1.2340

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For the dollar / franc pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 0.9914, 0.9894, 0.9879, 0.9852, 0.9828, 0.9812 and 0.9786. Here, we follow the development of the descending structure of September 12. The continuation of the movement to the bottom is expected after the breakdown of the level of 0.9852. In this case, the target is 0.9828. Short-term downward movement, as well as consolidation is in the range of 0.9828 - 0.9812. For the potential value for the bottom, we consider the level of 0.9786. Upon reaching which, we expect a pullback to the top.

Short-term upward movement is expected in the range of 0.9879 - 0.9894. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the goal is 0.9914. This level is a key support for the downward structure.

The main trend is the descending structure of September 12.

Trading recommendations:

Buy : 0.9880 Take profit: 0.9892

Buy : 0.9896 Take profit: 0.9912

Sell: 0.9850 Take profit: 0.9828

Sell: 0.9812 Take profit: 0.9788

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For the dollar / yen pair, the key levels on the scale are : 108.76, 108.33, 108.12, 107.70, 107.49 and 107.12. Here, we are following the development of the ascending structure of September 3. At the moment, the price is in correction. Short-term upward movement is expected in the range of 108.12 - 108.33. The breakdown of the last value will lead to movement to a potential target - 108.76, when this level is reached, we expect a pullback to the bottom.

Short-term downward movement is possibly in the range of 107.70 - 107.49. The breakdown of the last value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the goal is 107.12. This level is a key support for the top.

Main trend: local upward structure from September 3.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 108.12 Take profit: 108.30

Buy : 108.35 Take profit: 108.76

Sell: 107.70 Take profit: 107.50

Sell: 107.46 Take profit: 107.12

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For the Canadian dollar / US dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.3379, 1.3343, 1.3326, 1.3297, 1.3275, 1.3208, 1.3192, 1.3172 and 1.3131. Here, we are following the development of the ascending structure of September 10. Short-term upward movement is expected in the range of 1.3275 - 1.3297. The breakdown of the last value will lead to a pronounced movement. Here, the target is 1.3326. Price consolidation is in the range of 1.3326 - 1.3343. We consider the level of 1.3379 to be a potential value for the top; upon reaching this level, we expect a pullback to the bottom.

A short-term downward movement is possibly in the range of 1.3208 - 1.3192. The breakdown of the last value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the target is 1.3172. This level is a key support for the top. Its breakdown will have the downward structure. In this case, the potential target is 1.3131.

The main trend is the ascending structure of September 10.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.3275 Take profit: 1.3295

Buy : 1.3299 Take profit: 1.3226

Sell: 1.3208 Take profit: 1.3193

Sell: 1.3190 Take profit: 1.3172

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For the Australian dollar / US dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are : 0.6967, 0.6918, 0.6884, 0.6867, 0.6841, 0.6822 and 0.6793. Here, we are following the development of the ascending structure of September 3. Short-term upward movement is expected in the range of 0.6867 - 0.6884. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to a movement to the level of 0.6918. Price consolidation is near this value. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level of 0.6967. Upon reaching this level, we expect a pullback to the bottom.

Short-term downward movement is possibly in the range of 0.6841 - 0.6822. The breakdown of the last value will lead to a long correction. Here, the potential target is 0.6793. This level is a key support for the top.

The main trend is the upward structure of September 3.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 0.6886 Take profit: 0.6918

Buy: 0.6920 Take profit: 0.6965

Sell : 0.6840 Take profit : 0.6822

Sell: 0.6820 Take profit: 0.6795

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For the euro / yen pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 121.95, 121.39, 120.36, 119.95, 119.32, 118.99, 118.50 and 117.73. Here, we are following the ascending structure of September 12. Short-term upward movement is expected in the range of 119.95 - 120.36. The breakdown of the last value should be accompanied by a pronounced upward movement. Here, the target is 121.39. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level of 121.95. Upon reaching which, we expect consolidation, as well as a pullback to the bottom.

Short-term downward movement is expected in the range of 119.32 - 118.99. The breakdown of the last value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the goal is 118.50. This level is a key support for the upward structure.

The main trend is the local structure for the top of September 12.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 119.95 Take profit: 120.34

Buy: 120.40 Take profit: 121.30

Sell: 119.32 Take profit: 119.00

Sell: 119.95 Take profit: 118.50

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For the pound / yen pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are : 137.21, 136.13, 135.37, 134.10, 133.39 and 132.23. Here, we continue to monitor the development of the upward cycle of September 3. Short-term upward movement is expected in the range of 135.37 - 136.13. The breakdown of the last value will lead to movement to a potential target - 137.21, when this level is reached, we expect a pullback to the bottom.

Short-term downward movement is possibly in the range of 134.10 - 133.39. The breakdown of the last value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the goal is 132.23. This level is a key support for the upward structure.

The main trend is the upward structure of September 3.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 135.38 Take profit: 136.10

Buy: 136.15 Take profit: 137.20

Sell: 134.10 Take profit: 133.42

Sell: 133.35 Take profit: 132.30

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP/USD: traders' castles in the air and the danger of long positions

The pound closed the trading week at 1.2498, having previously touched the boundaries of the 25th figure. The pair has not seen such a high in a few months, or to be more precise, since July. In mid-summer, when Johnson's victory became apparent, the pair plunged to the area of 21-22 figures, since then it has not risen above the 23rd level. But the Brexit issue still has a strong influence on the pair's traders.

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As soon as the prospects for a "hard" scenario seriously loomed up on the horizon, the pair collapsed to around 1,1958 (a year-low). But the price immediately soared as soon as the hopes for approval of the transaction appeared on the market. This is despite the fact that the information itself, which served as a reason for strong corrective growth, was refuted by officials. But the pound, as if by inertia, still rose in price, reflecting increased demand. It is worth immediately warning: this price movement should be treated with extreme caution, since there are actually no reliable prerequisites for the restoration of the British currency. The bulls of the GBP/USD pair only took advantage of the latest rumors around the negotiation process. But, as a rule, such rumors are not subsequently confirmed, and high expectations of traders turn against the currency.

In this case, the immediate cause for the pound growth was the publication of the influential British newspaper Times. According to journalists, the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) will soften its demands on the issue of the Irish border - they will agree to Northern Ireland's compliance with some EU rules after the country leaves the European Union, in exchange for the cancellation of the agreement on the Irish border in the old version. And despite the fact that as early as Friday some representatives of the DUP denied this information, the British currency still continued to grow. This can only be explained by general optimism that the parties will either compromise or delay the Brexit date. This optimism is not supported by any objective prerequisites - on the contrary, at the moment, the main players continue to demonstrate an uncompromising and fairly tough position.

For example, Irish Prime Minister Leo Varadkar said yesterday that the gap between Britain and the European Union regarding Brexit remains "very large." He recalled that Johnson promised to present alternatives to backstop, "which will suit everyone," however, as the head of the Irish government noted, the proposed scenarios are "far from what is needed." Similar comments were voiced by Michel Barnier, EU chief negotiator. Yesterday, he also commented on the current situation - quite briefly, but succinctly. According to him, "at the moment there is no reason for optimism."

As for the rumors regarding the position of the Democratic Unionist Party, here it is necessary to recall the situation almost a year ago. In November 2018, information similarly appeared on the market that the parties had agreed on the Irish issue, avoiding the tight border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland. This item caused a storm of indignation among the Unionists. They stated that they would terminate the coalition alliance with the conservatives if the territory of Northern Ireland becomes a de facto part of the customs territory of the EU. The complexity of the situation lies in the fact that the unionists have the so-called "golden share" - without the support of their ten deputies, the conservatives lose the majority in parliament. And taking into account the "defectors" and the "dissidents" excluded from the conservative ranks, Johnson needs the votes of not only unionists, but also independent deputies (or representatives of the opposition).

In addition, do not forget that if London provides Belfast with special conditions, then the Scots, who traditionally advocate European integration processes, may also make similar demands. Most Scots voted in a referendum to keep Britain within the EU, so after Brexit they will probably demand a second referendum on Scottish independence. Similar statements have repeatedly sounded in the walls of the Scottish Parliament.

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Thus, the hopes for a historic breakthrough in the negotiations "coexist" with fears about the real actions of politicians. The pound behaves accordingly. And although optimism prevailed in the market on Friday, the pair's movements were abrupt and impulsive. Of course, trading in such conditions is a big risk, since the fundamental background for the pair is too unreliable, and the technique simply "does not work" in the medium and short term. For example, if the leadership of the DUP on Monday once again refutes this information, the pound will instantly collapse throughout the market, despite the signals of technical analysis.

To summarize, it is worth recalling that on Monday, September 16, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson will hold his first meeting with European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker. Although at the moment nothing indicates a possible breakthrough in the border issue in Ireland, their rhetoric may inspire the bulls of the GBP/USD pair to further increase, or turn the pair 180 degrees. In any case, long positions in the pair are risky. It is advisable to make trading decisions following the results of the above meeting: Johnson and Juncker may pleasantly surprise or greatly disappoint the market.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com