Overview of GBP/USD on July 26th. The forecast for the "Regression Channels". Jean-Claude Juncker refused to conduct any

4-hour timeframe

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Technical data:

The upper linear regression channel: direction – down.

The lower linear regression channel: direction – down.

The moving average (20; smoothed) – sideways.

CCI: -76.6988

The pound sterling worked out the Murray level of "6/8" - 1.2512 twice, both times failed to overcome it, and eventually resumed its downward movement, securing below the MA. Bulls once again showed their weakness, and the market – not the desire to buy the British currency. And where can this desire come from, if the main campaign slogan of Boris Johnson was "Brexit, no matter, what you become on October 31" and in the first two days of his reign, Johnson declares new negotiations with the EU, hinting that he will be able to conclude another agreement on Brexit, from which the European Union immediately refuses, hinting that it is the United Kingdom that will bear the greatest damage from the "hard" Brexit and not the 27 EU countries. Thus, the new agreement will not be possible, and the Parliament, which did not accept Theresa May's "deal" three times and, at the same time, blocked the "tough" Brexit several times, will most likely reject and once again withdraw from the European Union without an agreement. How the new Prime Minister of the Kingdom is going to meet his election promises is not yet clear. Most likely, he will follow the path of Donald Trump, accusing Parliament of unwillingness to take "difficult but necessary decisions", the European Union – in an unfair attitude to the UK, Theresa May – in the Brexit institution to a standstill. The question is whether the pound sterling will be in demand against such a fundamental background? Hardly. As before, the pound may be adjusted from time to time, but the main trend for the GBP/USD pair remains downward.

Nearest support levels:

S1 – 1.2451

S2 – 1.2421

S3 – 1.2390

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 – 1.2482

R2 – 1.2512

R3 – 1.2543

Trading recommendations:

The currency pair GBP/USD was fixed back below the MA, thus, it is again recommended to sell the pound sterling with targets at the levels of 1.2421 and 1.2390. The downward trend persists.

It will be possible to buy the pound/dollar pair with the goals of 1.2512 and 1.2543 not earlier than the reverse consolidation of the price above the moving average line. In this case, the initiative in the market will be in the hands of very weak bulls for some time.

In addition to the technical picture should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanation of illustrations:

The upper linear regression channel – the blue line of the unidirectional movement.

The lower linear regression channel – the purple line of the unidirectional movement.

CCI – the blue line in the indicator regression window.

The moving average (20; smoothed) is the blue line on the price chart.

Murray levels – multi-colored horizontal stripes.

Heiken Ashi is an indicator that colors bars in blue or purple.

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Overview of EUR/USD on July 26th. The forecast for the "Regression Channels". The ECB meeting is over. What has changed for

4-hour timeframe

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Technical data:

The upper channel of linear regression: direction – up.

The lower channel of linear regression: direction – down.

The moving average (20; smoothed) – down.

CCI: -53.9693

The results of the meeting of the ECB Monetary Committee were extremely predictable. Rates have remained unchanged, and Mario Draghi's speech at the press conference was terribly similar to his previous performances. Draghi noted the slowing inflation again, falling rates of economic growth and linked it all with the tense situation in the world, trade wars and threats from protectionism. At first, traders didn't expect that there would be no rate cut right now, or hoped to hear more direct hints of easing monetary policy at the next meeting, but they even began to close dollar positions, which led to a slight strengthening of the euro. However, happiness for the euro did not last long. The euro/dollar pair managed to adjust to the moving average line, but it was followed by a rebound, so the downward trend remains. At the moment, the indicator Heiken Ashi colors bars in purple, which indicates an upward trend of intraday, but it is more like a round of correction. Today, July 26, we draw traders' attention to the publication of preliminary data on US GDP for the second quarter. This week, there were only US reports, and next week, all attention will be focused on the Fed, which for the first time in a long time can lower the key rate. According to experts' forecasts, GDP in the second quarter can significantly decrease, but if it is higher than forecasts, it will support the dollar.

Nearest support levels:

S1 – 1.1108

S2 – 1.1047

S3 – 1.0986

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 – 1.1169

R2 – 1.1230

R3 – 1.1292

Trading recommendations:

The EUR/USD currency pair started to adjust. On July 26, therefore, it is recommended to wait for the turn of Heiken Ashi down and sell the euro/dollar pair with a target of 1.1108, which has already been worked out.

It is recommended to buy the euro in small lots if the bulls manage to return the pair above the moving average line, which will change the trend to the upward one, and the first goal, in this case, will be the Murray level of "4/8" - 1.1230.

In addition to the technical picture should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanation of illustrations:

The upper linear regression channel – the blue line of the unidirectional movement.

The lower linear regression channel – the purple line of the unidirectional movement.

CCI – the blue line in the indicator window.

The moving average (20; smoothed) is the blue line on the price chart.

Murray levels – multi-colored horizontal stripes.

Heiken Ashi is an indicator that colors bars in blue or purple.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Elliott wave analysis of GBP/JPY for July 26, 2019

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GBP/JPY is fighting its way higher, but has not started to accelerate higher as we had wished for. This does not mean the risk has shifted towards the downside, just that we have to stay patient.

We expect minor support in the 135.06 - 135.18 area will be able to protect the downside for a break above minor resistance at 135.47 and more importantly above resistance at 135.67 for the next push higher towards 137.04 and 137.79.

R3: 137.04

R2: 136.58

R1: 136.06

Pivot: 135.67

S1: 135. 18

S2: 135.06

S3: 134.91

Trading recommendation:

We are long EUR from 134,85 and we will raise our stop to 134.65

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for July 26, 2019

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EUR/JPY fell to a low of 120.02 from where there is a shot higher. The price met our first minor resistance at 120.69 and more importantly resistance at 121.28 strongly indicating that wave II has completed and wave III higher now is developing. The next big hurdles for EUR/JPY to overcome is seen at 122.31 and then 123.36.

Short-term we expect support at 120.54 - 120.69 to protect the downside for the next push higher towards 122.31. At no point can a break below 120.02 be allowed.

R3: 121.85

R2: 121.49

R1: 121.37

Pivot: 121.20

S1: 120.85

S2: 120.69

S3: 120.54

Trading recommendation:

We are long EUR from 120.85 and we have place our stop at 120.00

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Technical analysis of ETH/USD for 26.07.2019

Crypto Industry News:

Facebook's general manager, Mark Zuckerberg, says the company will devote "as much time as it will need" to satisfy the regulators and others before launching the Libra cryptocurrencies project.

Speaking during quarterly conversations on earnings, the founder of the social media giant tried to ensure investors that Facebook would act responsibly, developing Libra, an ambitious cryptographic project revealed last month as a potential payment method for people without a bank account.

The company initially stated that it intends to introduce currency in the first half of 2020, but the withdrawal by regulators and politicians undermined this deadline.

In response to the question about the time frame, Zuckerberg said that Facebook's approach to Libra is "an attempt to conduct a very open dialogue" and that, unlike a few years earlier, when a company could simply launch a new product, today Facebook is trying to determine in detail what ideas and values should have any services.

Technical Market Overview:

The ETH/USD pair has moved higher after the market bounced from the level of $199.67 and now the price is testing the 38% Fibonacci retracements again. The technical support made after the swing low at the level of $190.94 is getting closer and closer, so there is a high probability, that if the bulls will not break through the rest of the Fibonacci retracement, it will be tested soon as well.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - $294.64

WR2 - $266.38

WR1 - $246.13

Weekly Pivot - $217.90

WS1 - $196.02

WS2 - $167.35

WS3 - $146.40

Trading Recommendations:

The best strategy in the current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is still up. All the shorter timeframe moves are being treated as a correction inside of the uptrend. The current cycle is wave 2 of the higher degree and it might have been completed, so the uptrend should resume soon.

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Technical analysis of BTC/USD for 26.07.2019

Crypto Industry News:

The leading stock exchange cryptocurrency Binance added support for many decentralized exchanges (DEX) to its Trust Wallet, integrating the Kyber Network protocol.

Binance acquired Trust Wallet - a decentralized open-source wallet that initially offered native support for Ethereum tokens and others based on it - in the summer of 2018. After extending the portfolio service to many cryptocurrencies, in June Binance released its portfolio for its non-deposit Binance DEX platform.

After integration with the Kyber Network protocol - a dedicated cross-platform transactional platform - users will have access to a wider DEX ecosystem and will be able to exchange cryptocurrencies using Multi-DEX and an interface without a portfolio of orders.

In the spring, Binance revealed details of its Trust Wallet action plan, indicating that it plans to support tokens based on protocols using PoS algorithms, offer staking services, and integrate Layer 2 payment protocols, such as Lightning Network.

Interoperability has gained in strength among developers of protocols and industry companies who want to prevent the possible creation of the Blockchain landscape unit and support problem-free trade and application development.

This summer, Chinese platforms, Blockchain Ontology, and NEO, have partnered to create an open global cross-platform, and the Ethereum Classic incubator, ETC Labs, has revealed its plans to create a solution for interoperability Ethereum in collaboration with Metronome.

Technical Market Overview:

The short-term trendline on the BTC/USD market has been clearly violated, but there were not follow through the rally and the price reversed down just before the technical resistance located at the level of $10,166. The next target is seen at the level of $9,070, but so far the bears went down to the level of $9,459.To regain control, the bulls have to break through the technical resistance again and head towards the level of $11,068.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - $13,488

WR2 - $12,221

WR1 - $11,392

Weekly Pivot - $10,218

WS1 - $9,394

WS2 - $8,128

WS3 - $7,356

Trading Recommendations:

The best strategy in the current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is still up. All the shorter timeframe moves are being treated as a correction inside of the uptrend. The larger degree WXY correction might have been completed and the market might be ready for another impulsive wave up.

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Technical analysis of GBP/USD for 26.07.2019

Technical Market Overview:

The global investors are still fighting for the short-term trendline control at the GBP/USD market. The weak and negative momentum supports the short-term bearish outlook as the bears are in control of the market despite the battle of the trendline. New local lows made at the level of 1.2417 should be soon violated as well and the level of 1.2381 should be tested again soon. In a case of a further breakout, the next target for bears is seen at the level of 1.2100 (weekly support).

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.2789

WR2 - 1.2679

WR1 - 1.2588

Weekly Pivot - 1.2485

WS1 - 1.2394

WS2 - 1.2201

WS3 - 1.1089

Trading Recommendations:

The best strategy for the current market conditions is to follow the larger timeframe trend. The larger time frame trend is still down and there are no signs of any trend reversal. The key long-term technical support at the level of 1.2420 has been violated and the next target for bears is seen at the level of 1.2100 and 1.1983.

analytics5d3a8fe579302.jpg

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for 26.07.2019

Technical Market Overview:

The EUR/USD market has made a new local low at the level of 1.1101, so the key technical support has been clearly violated. In order to bounce higher, the bulls have to break through at least the technical resistance at the level of 1.1181. If they won't, the next target is seen at the level of 1.0821 and it might be hit very soon as the momentum is weak and negative. The bears are in full control of the market despite the oversold conditions. No signs of the short-term trend reversal yet.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.1340

WR2 - 1.1310

WR1 - 1.1257

Weekly Pivot - 1.1229

WS1 - 1.1171

WS2 - 1.1143

WS3 - 1.1089

Trading Recommendations:

After the level of 1.1181 gas been violated, the best strategy for the current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is still down. The Ending Diagonal pattern has not been finished yet and the bears are in full control of the market. The longer-term target is seen at the level of 1.0814.

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Technical analysis: Important Intraday Levels For EUR/USD, July 26, 2019

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When the European market opens, some economic data will be released such as German Import Prices m/m. The US will also publish the economic data such as Advance GDP Price Index q/q and Advance GDP q/q, so amid the reports, the EUR/USD pair will move with low to medium volatility during this day. TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVELS: Breakout BUY Level: 1.1199. Strong Resistance: 1.1193. Original Resistance: 1.1182. Inner Sell Area: 1.1171. Target Inner Area: 1.1145. Inner Buy Area: 1.1119. Original Support: 1.1108. Strong Support: 1.1097. Breakout SELL Level: 1.1091.(Disclaimer)The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis: Important Intraday Levels for USD/JPY, July 26, 2019

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In Asia, Japan will release the Tokyo Core CPI y/y and the US willr publish some economic data such as Advance GDP Price Index q/q and Advance GDP q/q. So there is a probability the USD/JPY pair will move with low to medium volatility during this day. TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVELS: Resistance.3 : 109.24. Resistance. 2: 109.03. Resistance. 1: 108.82. Support. 1: 108.55. Support. 2: 108.34. Support. 3: 108.13. (Disclaimer)The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Forecast for GBP/USD on July 26, 2019

GBP/USD

On Thursday, the pound sterling fell by 28 points, which was based on weak data for the UK and a strong release for the United States. In the UK, the balance of retail sales in the CBI estimate for July was -16 against the forecast of 0 and -42 in June. In the US, the volume of orders for durable goods in June increased by 2.0% against the forecast of 0.8% and the weekly report on the number of applications for unemployment benefits from the Ministry of Labor showed a decline from 216 thousand to 206 thousand, which confirms the strength of the labor market.

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On the daily chart, changes in indicators and price are insignificant, a target of 1.2280 remains relevant.

On the four-hour chart, the price has not yet been consolidated below the MACD line, the Marlin oscillator signal line has penetrated into the declining trend zone. The signal level for continuing the decline is yesterday's low of 1.2436.

We are waiting for the pound sterling at around 1.2280. Afterwards, 1.2055 is the next support for the embedded line of the price channel.

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Forecast for EUR/USD on July 26, 2019

EUR/USD

The European Central Bank, as we expected, kept its monetary policy unchanged. ECB Head Mario Draghi shifted all the attention to the September meeting, hinting at the urgent need to stimulate financial conditions, and this, until the middle of next year, will not be the rates, but the traditional asset redemption on the balance of the central bank. It is possible that multi-level accruals on bank deposits will be introduced. As a result, the euro was trading in the range of 80 points and closed the day with an increase of 7 points.

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As can be seen on the daily chart, the price reached a signal level of 1.1116, but lingered below it for only half an hour and returned back. Actually, the signal level in fact was the lowest level on May 23 (1.1107), now it is a signal range, the overcoming of which opens the underlying targets of 1.1074 and 1.0985 - the Fibonacci level of 138.2%.

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On the four-hour chart, the euro's growth from yesterday had stopped on the MACD line. Today, the Marlin oscillator signal line has reached the boundary with a growth area from which a downward reversal is possible. But at the same time, a short-term price growth is possible once again to the MACD line (1.1178), after which the euro's final decline to the designated targets is likely.

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GBP/JPY approaching resistance, potential drop!

GBPJPY is approaching our first resistance where we are expecting a drop below this level.

Entry: 135.37

Why it's good : Horizontal overlap resistance, 61.8%, 100% Fibonacci extension, 61.8% Fibonacci extension

Stop Loss : 135.89

Why it's good : Horizontal swing high resistance, 78.6% Fibonacci retracement

Take Profit : 134.31

Why it's good: 76.4% Fibonacci retracement, horizontal swing low support

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NZD/USD testing support, potential break out!

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Price is testing its support at 0.6652 where if broken, will confirm a further move down to its next support.

Entry: 0.6652

Why it's good : horizontal overlap support, 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, 100% Fibonacci extension

Stop Loss : 0.6694

Why it's good : 61.8% Fibonacci retracement

Take Profit : 0.6636

Why it's good: 78.6% Fibonacci retracement, 100% Fibonacci extension

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USD/JPY reverse off resistance, further drop!

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USDJPY reversing off 1st resistance at 108.75 where a reversal could occur.

Entry :108.75

Why it's good : horizontal swing high resistance

61.8% Fibonacci extension

100% Fibonacci extension

78.6% Fibonacci retracement

Take Profit : 108.36

Why it's good : 23.6% Fibonacci retracement

Horizontal swing low support

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Forecast for USD / JPY pair on July 26, 2019

USD / JPY pair

Yesterday, the Yen took an intensified breakthrough, reaching the first target of 108.70 after more than 50 points growth. On the daily chart, the resistance of the MACD line was not overcome. The price adjusts slightly in today's Asian session. Reversal signs on the daily are not observed.

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On the four-hour chart, the Marlin oscillator signal line turns down. Taking into account the strong resistance on a daily scale, the dollar may decline based on the US GDP data for the 2nd quarter, which is to be released today. The forecast of which is 1.8% versus 3.1% in the 1st quarter. The price reduction does not appear to be lower than the support of the MACD line at 108.15. Continued growth is likely after fixing above yesterday's high of 108.76. In this case, the target is the resistance of the nested line of the price channel at 109.68.

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Fractal analysis of major currency pairs on July 26

Forecast for July 26:

Analytical review of H1-scale currency pairs:

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For the euro / dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.1212, 1.1195, 1.1174, 1.1162, 1.1119, 1.1104 and 1.1073. Here, the price is in the correction zone from the downward structure and forms a small potential for the top of July 25. The continuation of the movement to the to is expected after the price passes the noise range 1.1162 - 1.1174. In this case, the goal is 1.1195, wherein price consolidation is near this level.For the potential value for the top, we consider the level of 1.1212.

Short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 1.1119 - 1.1104. The breakdown of the latter value will allow to expect movement towards a potential target - 1.1073. From this level, we expect a rollback to the top.

The main trend is the local downward structure of July 18, the stage of correction.

Trading recommendations:

Buy 1.1175 Take profit: 1.1195

Buy 1.1197 Take profit: 1.1212

Sell: 1.1119 Take profit: 1.1105

Sell: 1.1103 Take profit: 1.1075

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For the pound / dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.2662, 1.2623, 1.2598, 1.2558, 1.2528, 1.2494, 1.2441, 1.2420 and 1.2379. Here, we are following the local ascending structure of July 23. At the moment, the price is close to canceling this structure, for which passing by the range of 1.2441 - 1.2420 is necessary. In this case, the first potential target is 1.2379. The continuation of the movement to the top is expected after the breakdown of the level of 1.2494. Here, the first goal is 1.2528. The breakdown of which will allow us to expect movement to the level of 1.2558, and near this level is the consolidation of the price. The breakdown of the level 1.2558 should be accompanied by a pronounced upward movement. Here, the target is 1.2598. Consolidation is in the range of 1.2598 - 1.2623. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level of 1.2662. The movement to which is expected after the breakdown of the level of 1.2625.

The main trend is the local structure for the top of July 23, the stage of deep correction.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.2494 Take profit: 1.2528

Buy: 1.2530 Take profit: 1.2558

Sell: 1.2441 Take profit: 1.2420

Sell: 1.2420 Take profit: 1.2380

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For the dollar / franc pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 0.9952, 0.9930, 0.9919, 0.9888, 0.9871 and 0.9850. Here, we are following the development of the ascending structure of July 22. The continuation of the movement to the top is expected after the price passes the noise range 0.9919 - 0.9930. In this case, the potential target is 0.9952. After reaching this level, we expect a rollback to correction and the formation of large initial conditions for the upward movement.

Short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 0.9888 - 0.9871. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to a prolonged correction. Here, the target is 0.9850. This level is a key support for the upward structure.

The main trend is the ascending structure of July 22.

Trading recommendations:

Buy : 0.9930 Take profit: 0.9950

Buy : Take profit:

Sell: 0.9888 Take profit: 0.9872

Sell: 0.9868 Take profit: 0.9852

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For the dollar / yen pair, the key levels on the scale are : 109.48, 109.29, 108.94, 108.74, 108.54, 108.40, 108.16 and 107.92. Here, we are following the development of the ascending structure of July 18. Short-term upward movement is expected in the range of 108.74 - 108.94. The breakdown of the last value should be accompanied by a pronounced upward movement. In this case, the target is 109.29. We consider the level of 109.48 to be a potential value for the top. Upon reaching this level, we expect consolidation as well as a rollback to the bottom.

Short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 108.54 - 108.40. The breakdown of the last value will lead to a prolonged correction. Here, the goal is 108.16. This level is a key support for the upward structure. Its price passage will have to form the initial conditions for the downward cycle. Here, the potential goal is 107.92.

The main trend: the ascending structure of July 18.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 108.75 Take profit: 108.92

Buy : 108.95 Take profit: 109.29

Sell: 108.54 Take profit: 108.42

Sell: 108.38 Take profit: 108.16

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For the Canadian dollar / US dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.3256, 1.3236, 1.3201, 1.3178, 1.3163, 1.3130, 1.3112 and 1.3085. Here, we continue to monitor the ascending structure of July 19. The continuation of the movement to the top is expected after the passage of the price of the noise range 1.3163 - 1.3178. In this case, the goal - 1.3201, and near this level is a consolidation. The breakdown of the level of 1.3201 will lead to a pronounced movement. Here, the target is 1.3236. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level of 1.3256. After reaching which, we expect a rollback to the bottom.

Short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 1.3130 - 1.3112. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to a prolonged correction. Here, the target is 1.3085. This level is a key support for the top.

The main trend is the ascending structure of July 19.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.3178 Take profit: 1.3200

Buy : 1.3203 Take profit: 1.3234

Sell: 1.3130 Take profit: 1.3112

Sell: 1.3110 Take profit: 1.3085

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For a pair of Australian dollar / US dollar, the key levels on the H1 scale are : 0.6998, 0.6974, 0.6958, 0.6940, 0.6924, 0.6907 and 0.6888. Here, we are following the development of the downward structure of July 18th. Short-term downward movement is expected in the range of 0.6940 - 0.6924. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to the movement to the level of 0.6907. From this level, there is a high probability of a reversal to the correction. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level of 0.6888. However, the movement towards this goal is considered unstable.

Short-term upward movement is possible in the range of 0.6958 - 0.6974. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to a prolonged correction. In this case, the target is 0.6998.

The main trend - the downward structure of July 18.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 0.6958 Take profit: 0.6972

Buy: 0.6976 Take profit: 0.6996

Sell : 0.6940 Take profit : 0.6925

Sell: 0.6922 Take profit: 0.6907

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For the euro / yen pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 122.07, 121.62, 121.47, 121.26, 120.92, 120.74 and 120.49. Here, the price forms the initial conditions for the upward movement of July 25. The continuation of the movement to the top is expected after the breakdown of the level of 121.26. In this case, the goal is 121.47. We expect clearance of the expressed structure to the level of 121.62. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level of 122.07. The movement to which is expected after the breakdown of the level of 121.62.

Short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 120.92 - 120.74. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to a prolonged correction. Here, the goal is 120.49. This level is a key support for the top.

The main trend is the formation of the initial conditions for the upward cycle of July 25.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 121.26 Take profit: 121.45

Buy: 121.64 Take profit: 122.05

Sell: 120.92 Take profit: 120.76

Sell: 120.72 Take profit: 120.54

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For the pound / yen pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are : 136.69, 136.31, 136.03, 135.63, 135.17, 134.96 and 134.71. Here, we determined more precise targets for the upward trend from the local structure on July 24. The continuation of the movement to the top is expected after the breakdown of the level of 135.63. In this case, the goal is 136.03. A short-term upward movement, as well as consolidation is in the range of 136.03 - 136.31. We consider the level of 136.69 as a potential value for the top. Upon reaching this level, we expect a rollback to the correction.

Short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 135.17 - 134.96. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to a prolonged correction. Here, the goal is 134.71. This level is a key support for the upward structure.

The main trend is the local ascending structure of July 24th.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 135.65 Take profit: 136.03

Buy: 136.06 Take profit: 136.30

Sell: 135.17 Take profit: 134.97

Sell: 134.94 Take profit: 134.72

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#USDX vs GBP / USD H4 vs EUR / USD H4. Comprehensive analysis of movement options from July 26, 2019. Analysis of APLs &

Let us consider the comprehensive analysis of the options for the development of the movement of currency instruments #USDX vs EUR / USD vs GBP / USD from July 26, 2019.

Minuette (H4)

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US dollar Index

The movement of the dollar index #USDX from July 26, 2019 will result depending on the direction of the range breakdown :

  • resistance level of 97.75 (starting line SSL for the Minuette operating scale fork);
  • support level of 97.55 (upper boundary of the 1/2 Median Line channel of Minuette)

The breakdown of the upper boundary of the 1/2 Median Line channel of Minuette (support level of 97.55) will determine the development of the #USDX movement in the 1/2 Median Line channel of Minuette (97.55 - 97.45 - 97.35), and during the breakdown of the lower boundary (97.35) of this channel, the downward movement of the US dollar index can be extended to the median line (97.25) of the Minuette operating scale forks and the equilibrium zone (97.21 - 97.05 - 96.88) of the Minuette operational scale forks.

On the other hand, in case of breakdown of the resistance level of 97.75 on the SSL start line, the Minuette operational scale forks will be followed by updating the local maximum 97.82. After that, the upward movement of #USDX can continue to the targets - the UTL Minuette control line (97.95) - the UWL61.8 Minuette warning line (98.10).

The details of the #USDX movement are shown in the animated graphics.

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Euro vs US dollar

Similarly in the case of the dollar index, the development of the movement of the single European currency EUR / USD from July 26, 2019 will be due to the direction of the range breakdown :

  • resistance level of 1.1160 (the lower boundary of the 1/2 Median Line channel of the Minuette operational scale fork);
  • support level of 1.1121 (starting line SSL for the Minuette operating scale).

The breakdown of the resistance level of 1.1160 will make it possible to develop the movement of the single European currency within the boundaries of the 1/2 Median Line channel (1.1160 - 1.1170 - 1.1180) and the equilibrium zone (1.1185 - 1.1205 - 1.1222) of the Minuette operating scale.

In the case of confirmation of the breakdown of the initial SSL line (1.1121) of the Minuette operating scale fork, the downward movement of EUR / USD can be continued towards the targets - minimum 1.1107 - warning line UWL38.2 (1.1052) of the Minuette operational scale fork.

The details of the movement options for this pair are presented in the graph.

analytics5d39de160838c.jpg

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Great Britain pound vs US dollar

Meanwhile, the development of the movement of Her Majesty's Currency GBP / USD from July 26, 2019 will be determined by the development and direction of the breakdown of the boundaries of the 1/2 Median Line channel (1.2530 - 1.2500 - 1.2460) of the Minuette operational scale. The movement options within this channel are shown in the animated graphic.

If the resistance level of 1.2530 is broken down at the upper boundary of the 1/2 Median Line channel Minuette, the upward movement of GBP / USD can be continued to the targets - the lower boundary of the ISL38.2 (1.2615) and the equilibrium zone of the Minuette operating scale fork -the final Schiff Line Minuette (1.2620) is the lower boundary of the ISL38.2 (1.2645) equilibrium zone of the Minuette operational scale fork.

The breakdown of the lower boundary of the 1/2 Median Line channel of Minuette operational scale (support level of 1.2460) will determine the further development of the movement of the single European currency in the 1/2 Median Line channel (1.2460 - 1.2405 - 1.2350) of the Minuette operational scale fork.

The details of the GBP / USD movement are presented in the animated graphics.

analytics5d39ddf3ad720.jpg

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The review was compiled without taking into account of the news background. In addition, the opening of trading sessions of the main financial centers does not serve as a guide to action (placing orders "sell" or "buy").

The formula for calculating the dollar index is:

USDX = 50.14348112 * USDEUR0.576 * USDJPY0.136 * USDGBP0.119 * USDCAD0.091 * USDSEK0.042 * USDCHF0.036.

where power ratios correspond to the weights of currencies in the basket:

Euro - 57.6% ;

Yen - 13.6%;

Pound sterling - 11.9% ;

Canadian dollar - 9.1%;

Swedish krona - 4.2%;

Swiss franc - 3.6%.

The first coefficient in the formula gives the index value to 100 on the starting date - March 1973, when the main currencies began to be freely quoted relative to each other.

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JPMorgan predicts the decline of the dollar era

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The position of the greenback in the foreseeable future may falter, and it even runs the risk of losing the status of the main global reserve currency, analysts at JPMorgan Chase warn.

"The dollar has been the main global reserve currency for almost 100 years. During this time, many investors, including those outside the United States, have become accustomed to the fact that dollar assets occupy a "higher than market" share in their portfolios. However, we believe that the US currency may lose its unique status due to structural and cyclical reasons, which will lead to a decline in its rate," representatives of the financial institute said.

"After the end of World War II, the United States became the largest global economy, accounting for a quarter of global GDP. If we add the countries of Western Europe, then this value will increase to 40%. Since then, fast-growing Asia, in the heart of which China is located, has consistently won back the share of the world market from the West, "they added.

According to experts, as the Asian region develops, the share of transactions in currencies other than the dollar will inevitably grow.

"In addition, the current US administration has questioned agreements with all major US trading partners - from Mexico and Canada to China and the EU, and also left the Trans-Pacific Partnership. Such unfriendly actions on the part of Washington can induce these states to reduce the share of the dollar in trade calculations," noted JPMorgan experts.

They believe that the permanent fiscal and trade deficits of the United States can trigger a decline in the dollar against a basket of currencies and gold, and advise investors to diversify their portfolios so that they prefer other currencies in developed markets and in Asia, as well as precious metals.

However, according to analysts, selling the dollar immediately is also not worth it, because shifts in preferences in financial markets take a very long time, so those who are counting on a quick weakening of the US currency should have extraordinary patience.

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Oil is growing, but for a serious breakthrough you need something more positive

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Oil has enough reason to grow. Quotes have already risen by more than a dollar amid tensions in the Middle East and a significant decline in US oil reserves. On the opposite side of the scale, only weak production data in Western countries, indicating a slowdown in economic growth, which, in turn, may reduce the demand for fuel. Brent crude went up by $1.03, to $64.21 per barrel, while American WTI rose by $1, to $56.88 per barrel. A week after Iran captured a British-flagged tanker in the Persian Gulf, the British Ministry of Defense announced that the Royal Navy was assigned to escort ships through the Strait of Hormuz to protect the freedom of navigation. Saudi Arabia, the world's largest exporter of oil, also called for ensuring the safe transportation of energy in the Strait of Hormuz, through which about 20% of world supplies are transported daily. Prices also supported the decline in oil reserves in the US by almost 11 million barrels, despite the fact that a decline of 4 million barrels was expected. The numbers indicate that the oil market is finally recovering.

Confirming the balance of supply and demand, Brent briefly plunged into contango - this is a market structure in which the prices for forward deliveries are higher than for urgent ones. However, this is not enough. "Despite the fundamental factors that support oil prices, such as the balance of supply and demand, geopolitics, on the side of bulls, the market, in order to rise noticeably, you still need a strong positive economic catalyst. If next week we receive positive comments on the results of the resumed trade negotiations between the United States and China, then oil may jump sharply in price," BNP is sure.

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The Fed will cut rates for the first time in a decade this month

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According to economists surveyed by Reuters, a quarter-point reduction in the Fed's interest rate is a "resolved issue", and another decline is expected this year amid growing economic risks as a result of the continuing trade war between the US and China. Easing policy will push US stocks to new record highs. More than 95% of 111 economists predict a rate cut of 25 basis points at the meeting of July 30-31. At the same time, the markets are already so confident in the Fed's decision that if this does not happen, it will cause some shock. Expectations for the Fed rate this year have changed dramatically - from a stable tightening to a series of cuts. Just a month ago, the US central bank still predicted the continuation of policy and possible easing next year. But now fears about the negative impact of a trade war, a slowdown in growth, as well as weak inflationary pressure are causing increasing concern.

The latest survey shows another rate cut in the last quarter, and almost 40% of respondents predict that another drop is likely to occur as early as September. In general, three rate reductions are expected this year - in July, September and December. "We do not think this is the beginning of a large-scale easing cycle; rather, these reductions are aimed at providing a little more opportunity to compensate for the headwind, "economist Josh Nay said. However, there is another opinion. "The problems that affect the economy and inflation right now will not solve lower rates. Economic prospects are overshadowed by trade tensions. Reducing rates by 25 or 50 basis points will not change this situation. From a fundamental point of view, this does not make sense," said analyst Thomas Simons.

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Opinions on the euro are divided. Despite gloomy prospects, there is reason for optimism

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The euro is expected to continue falling, updating its two-month low against the dollar. Investors are waiting for a signal from the ECB about the beginning of the next phase of monetary policy easing, including a reduction in the rate and the resumption of bond purchases. The situation was aggravated by a more significant than expected fall in the German index of business climate. There is good reason to believe that the actions of the ECB will only increase pressure on the already besieged euro. Markets estimate the likelihood of a cut in the ECB's interest rate by 10 basis points at 50%, some expect Mario Draghi to set the stage for further rate cuts in the future, or to start a quantitative easing program. According to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, hedge funds held short positions for the euro at $4.39 billion in the week ending July 16, at about the same levels as they were at the beginning of this year. The only thing that can help the single currency is the ECB's decision to wait until September to lower the key base rate. Given these expectations, some market participants see the euro strengthening against the dollar. These opposing views on the market were reflected in the volatility of the euro, which rose to 12.73 points, the highest level since December.

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The Swiss franc, on expectations of lower rates in the euro area, soared to a new two-year high of 1.0963 against the single currency. The leap of the franc reinforced expectations that the Swiss Central Bank could weaken the currency in order to protect the export-dependent economy. Perhaps the regulator will reduce rates in September. But the Australian dollar expectations of lower interest rates led to a new two-week low of 0.6963 dollars.

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Golden collisions: 3-0 in favor of the precious metal

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The current situation in the global market contributes to the growth of "gold" sentiment among investors. According to some analysts, clouds are gathering in the economic horizon, which may erupt into a recession and slow down the global economy. Against this background, only precious metals, in particular gold, look like a haven of constancy. Experts cite three arguments in favor of acquiring the yellow metal.

Recent statistics worry most market participants, and many of them are preparing for a crisis.

The crisis is only taking shape, while the central banks, the issuers of world reserve currencies, have almost no tools left to fight it. In a number of countries - Japan, Sweden, Denmark - there are negative interest rates. The European Central Bank, as well as the Fed, for whom a return to the policy of quantitative easing only takes a matter of time, analysts are certain.

The current situation deprives the US currency of the status of a reliable global means of payment. The US dollar has ceased to be considered a "safe haven", thanks to which you can wait out the financial storm. World regulators and major market players are reducing their share of dollars in the structure of reserves and are actively buying physical gold. Experts believe that the reason for this is an extremely unstable geopolitical situation. According to the apt expression of analyst Maxim Blunt, "the genie of protectionism is out of the bottle." This exacerbates the already difficult situation in the global market. "Trade wars are running, their geography is growing. On the verge of conflict were the traditional allies - the United States and the European Union. The US president may impose prohibitive duties against European cars, and the EU authorities promise not to remain in debt. Preparations for the "currency wars" and the "devaluation race" are in full swing," M. Blunt stresses.

The external background is far from ideal, but the largest central banks and the authorities of several countries began to buy gold in an optimistic rush. This contributed to the active growth of its price. Analysts cite three arguments in favor of the yellow metal:

1) reliability and constant demand;

2) high value;

3) the status of the asset - "safe haven" and the associated benefits.

According to M. Blunt, gold is acquired by market players who fear a political collapse that may follow the financial and economic turmoil. In such a situation, the yellow metal will undoubtedly become a "safety cushion" for investors, analysts believe.

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