USD/CAD intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for January 13, 2017

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On August 18, signs of bullish recovery were manifested around the price level of 1.2830 which led to the current bullish breakout above 1.3000.

The USD/CAD pair was trapped between the price levels of 1.3000 (61.8% Fibonacci level) and 1.3360 (50% Fibonacci level) until a bullish breakout took place one month ago.

Note that the USD/CAD pair challenged the upper limit of the depicted channel around 1.3360-1.3400 which succeeded to apply enough bearish pressure on the pair.

Shortly after, a bearish engulfing weekly candlestick was expressed by the end of the week indicating strong resistance around 1.3550.

Bearish persistence below the price level of 1.3300 (50% Fibonacci Level) was achieved.

This allowed a further decline toward 1.3200 and 1.3080 (the lower limit of the depicted channel) where bullish rejection was expressed as anticipated.

A bullish breakout above 1.3360 (50% Fibonacci level) was expected to allow further advance toward 1.3700-1.3750 (the upper limit of the depicted channel). However, significant bearish rejection was expressed around 1.3580 (recent established top).

The price level of 1.3300 (50% Fibonacci Level) failed to provide enough support for the recent bearish pullback.

That's why, further decline towards 1.3000 (61.8% Fibonacci level) should be watched for a possible BUY entry.

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NZD/USD intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for January 13, 2017

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On November 8, significant signs of a bearish reversal were expressed around the upper limit of the depicted consolidation range (0.7350).

A bearish breakdown of 0.7250 (the lower limit of the depicted range) enhanced the bearish side of the market toward the price level of 0.7100 (recent bottom of October 28) which was broken as well.

Bearish persistence below 0.7100 allowed a quick decline toward 0.6960 (BUY zone) where bullish rejection and a valid BUY entry were expected. All T/P levels were successfully achieved.

Once again, bearish persistence below the price level of 0.7100 enabled the NZD/USD pair to pursue toward lower target levels around 0.6990 (the upper limit of the depicted BUY zone).

The price level of 0.6990 failed to apply enough bullish pressure. Instead of that, bearish movement continued toward the lower limit of the depicted BUY zone (0.6860) which provided significant bullish rejection on December 23.

The NZD/USD pair was trapped within the depicted price range (0.6860-0.6990) until a bullish breakout occurred.

A bullish breakout above 0.6960 allows the pair to head towards the price level of 0.7100 (Sell Entry 2) where a valid sell entry can be taken. S/L should be set at daily closure above 0.7150.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for GBP/USD for January 13, 2017

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The price zone between 1.3845 and 1.3550 (historical bottoms set in January 2009) was considered a significant demand zone to be watched for bullish recovery.

However, by the end of June a significant bearish break below 1.3550 was expressed as seen on the depicted charts (fundamental reasons). Bearish persistence below the demand level at 1.3550 enhanced the bearish scenario toward the price levels around 1.2700 (Bearish projection target).

Since then, the GBP/USD pair has been trapped inside the depicted consolidation range above 1.2700 until a bearish breakout took place on October 6.

Daily persistence below 1.2700 confirmed the bearish Flag pattern. That is why, a bearish projection target would be located around 1.2020.

Recently, bullish recovery was manifested around 1.2080. That is why, a bullish pullback was executed toward 1.2700-1.2750.

Risky traders considered the recent bullish pullback toward the price zone of 1.2700-1.2750 to be a valid SELL entry. S/L should be lowered to 1.2500 to secure profits.

Note that the ascending bottoms around the price levels of 1.2120 and 1.2320 may generate significant bullish pressure thus threatening the suggested trade.

On the other hand, bullish price action was expressed around the price levels of (1.2150-1.2100) where previous bottoms were established. Hence, another bullish pullback should be expected towards 1.2700-1.2750.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for January 13, 2017

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In January 2015, the EUR/USD pair moved below the major demand levels near 1.2100 where historical bottoms were previously set in July 2012 and June 2010.

Hence, a long-term bearish target was projected toward 0.9450.

In March 2015, EUR/USD bears challenged the monthly demand level around 1.0570, which had been previously reached in August 1997.

Later in April 2015, a strong bullish recovery was observed around the mentioned demand level.

However, next monthly candlesticks (September, October, and November) reflected a strong bearish rejection around the area of 1.1400-1.1500.

Again in February 2016, the depicted price levels around 1.1400-1.1500 acted as a significant supply zone during the bullish pullback.

That is why, recent bearish rejection was expected around the depicted supply levels (note the monthly candlesticks of May, August, and October 2016).

In the longer term, the level of 0.9450 remains a projected target if the current monthly candlestick maintains its bearish closure below the depicted monthly demand level of 1.0570.

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The long-term outlook for the EUR/USD pair remains bearish as the monthly chart illustrates. Bearish persistence below 1.0575 is needed to pursue this bearish scenario.

In September 2016, temporary bullish breakout above 1.1250 was expressed again, but evident bearish pressure was applied on the EUR/USD pair on September 16.

Closure below 1.1250 (supply level 1) maintained enough bearish pressure and enhanced the downside momentum toward the price level of 1.1000 (key level 1).

Bearish persistence below 1.0825 allowed a further fall to occur at 1.0570 (demand level) where bullish rejection and a valid BUY entry were expressed on November 24.

The price level of 1.0825 (Fibonacci Expansion 100%) constituted a recent supply level which offered a valid SELL entry on December 8.

Bearish persistence below the depicted demand level around 1.0570 allows a further decline. The first bearish target would be located around 1.0220.

Note that the price level of 1.0600 constitutes a recent supply level to be watched during the current bullish pullback above 1.0500.

On the other hand, bullish breakout above 1.0600 allows further bullish advance towards 1.0825 (Fibonacci Expansion 100%) where bearish rejection should be anticipated.

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Daily analysis of major pairs for January 13, 2017

EUR/USD: The EUR/USD pair has gone significantly upwards, and the bias has turned into bullish (due to the weakness of USD). Price is supposed to go further upwards in the next several days, and as long as the support lines at 1.0600 and 1.0500 are not breached to the downside, the bullish outlook would be logical.

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USD/CHF: This market has gone downwards – as a result of the weakness in USD. There is already a "sell" signal in the market, as price has dropped from the weekly high of 1.0247. It is important to know that price is still recently above the psychological level at 1.0000; and once it is breached to the downside. The bias would turn completely bearish.

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GBP/USD: This market is quite choppy. The recent bullish attempts have been foiled, and the current price action has revealed intent to push price lower. The EMA 11 is already below the EMA 56, and the RSI period 14 is below the level 50. The accumulation territories at 1.2100 and 1.2000 could be tested soon.

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USD/JPY: The USD/JPY pair has gone down significantly. The bearish movement started gradually at the beginning of this week, and it has really become serious. The EMA 11 is below the EMA 56, and the RSI period 14 has gone below the level 50. It is possible for price to go further and further downwards today or next week.

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EUR/JPY: The EUR/JPY pair is now in a clear bearish trend. Price has gone down by 230 pips this week, and the upwards bounce that is currently happening is shallow. A further bearish movement is anticipated, which may take price towards the demand zones at 121.00, 120.50, and 120.00.

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Global macro overview for 13/01/2017

Global macro overview for 13/01/2017:

The US Retail Sales data for all-important December Christmas sales are scheduled for release at 01:30 pm GMT today. Retail sales are expected to have increased by 0.7% from the previous month (0.5% increase excluding autos) – a big jump from November's 0.1% increase. The wage growth, low unemployment, positive customer sentiment, record high credit card spending, higher income is all contributing to high retail sales. The yearly uptrend in retail sales is clear and it climbed 6% since 2012. In conclusion, another set of good data from the US is being expected today, which might boost the US Dollar again.

Let's now take a look at the US Dollar Index technical picture in the daily time frame. Since the top at the level of 103.83 the market is in the corrective cycle that possibly targets the level of 100.53. When this level is hit, a larger rebound or trend resumption is expected.

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Global macro overview for 13/01/2017

Global macro overview for 13/01/2017:

The number of unemployed people in the US advanced less than expected last week. According to the Labor Department, initial claims rose 10,000 to 247,000 during the week ending January 7. This marked the 97th consecutive week that claims remained below the 300,000 level, the longest streak since 1973. Moreover, the report also showed that continuous claims dropped 29,000 to 2.09 million in the last week of 2016. In conclusion, the US jobs market is still performing very well and stable and if President Elect Donald Trump will keep his campaign promises regarding more construction spending and employment increase, the job figures might get even better.

Let's now take a look at EUR/USD technical picture in 4H time frame. The technical resistance at the level of 1.0669 has been breached, but now follow through so far. Moreover, the bearish divergence between the price and momentum oscillator suggests the up moves might be limited and a reversal is expected any time now.

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Technical analysis of USD/CAD for January 13, 2017

General overview for 13/01/2017:

The market bounced from intraday support at the level of 1.3119, but is still trading inside of the last wave range and below the golden trend line. This corrective rebound might hit the upper arm of the golden trend line but only a sustained breakout above the level of 1.2393 would secure the bottom for wave alt.(v) (green) and extend the correction higher. All of this suggests a deeper decline towards the lows of the wave A (purple) around the level of 1.2460 and an eventual breakout lower. Nevertheless, please notice, this recent leg down might be still just a part of some larger corrective cycle.

Support/Resistance:

1.3600 - Wave B Top

1.3280 - Weekly Pivot

1.3230 - Dashed Purple Channel Support

1.3119 - Intraday Support

1.3026 - Technical Support

Trading recommendations:

Day traders and swing traders should refrain from trading as the market is evolving into a more complex corrective cycle, which is full of whipsaws and false breakouts. Please wait for the next trading setup to occur shortly.

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for January 13, 2017

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Overview:

  • The USD/CHF pair didn't make any significant movements yesterday. There are no changes in our technical outlook. The USD/CHF pair continues to move downwards from the level of 1.0173. The pair dropped from the level of 1.0173 to the bottom around 1.0075. Today, the first resistance level is seen at 1.0173 followed by 1.0173, while daily support 1 is found at 1.0040. Besides, the level of 1.0040 represents a weekly pivot point for that it is acting as major support this week. Amid the previous events, the USD/CHF pair is still in a downtrend, because it is trading in a bearish trend from the new resistance line of 1.0173 towards the first support level at 1.0040 in order to test it. If the pair succeeds to pass through the level of 1.0040, the market will indicate a bearish opportunity below the level of 1.0040. Sell orders are recommended below the area of 1.0040 with the first target at the level of 1.0000; and continue towards 0.9946. However, if a breakout happens at the resistance level of 1.0173, then this scenario may be invalidated.
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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for January 13, 2017

General overview for 13/01/2017:

The double three pattern in wave c (green) is either completed or is about to complete as the market is in the last stages of this cycle. The projected target for the green wave c of this correction is at the level of 120.88 (technical support). The alternative count suggests the top for the purple wave 3 is in place already at the level of 124.08, so the current correction is just like the purple wave 4, but one degree higher. Anyway, regardless of the wave degree, there is still on more wave to the upside missing.

Support/Resistance:

124.08 - Swing High

122.15 - Intraday Resistance

121.19 - Intraday Support

120.88 - Intraday Support

Trading recommendations:

Day traders and swing traders should refrain from trading as the market is evolving into more complex corrective cycle which is full of whipsaws and false breakouts. Please wait for the next trading setup to occur shortly.

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for January 13, 2017

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Overview:

  • The NZD/USD pair continues to move upwards from the level of 0.7049. The pair rose from the level of 0.7049 to a top around 0.7130. Right now the price is seen at the point of 0.7120. Today, the first resistance level is seen at 0.7157 followed by 0.7194, while daily support 1 is seen at 0.7094 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement). According to the previous events, the NZD/USD pair is still moving between the levels of 0.7094 and 0.7194; so we expect a range of 100 pips. Furthermore, if the trend is able to break out through the first resistance level at 0.7157, we should see the pair climbing towards the second resistance of 0.7094.
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  • Therefore, buy above the level of 0.7094 with the first target at 0.7157 in order to test the daily resistance 1 and further to 0.7094. Besides, it might be noted that the level of 0.7238 is a good place to take profit because it will form a double top. On the other hand, in case a reversal takes place and the NZD/USD pair breaks through the support level of 0.7094, a further decline to 0.7049 can occur which would indicate a bearish market.
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Technical analysis of USDX for January 13, 2017

The Dollar index remains in a bearish short-term trend and our target of 100.40 remains intact and very possible to be achieved even today. Any bounce should be sold and as long as price is below 102.50 trend will remain bearish. However, the form of the decline implies that this downward move is corrective.

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The Dollar index remains below the 4-hour Ichimoku cloud. Resistance is at 102.50. Support is at 100-100.40. Trend remains bearish in the short-term and a new lower low remains possible as there are no signs of a bullish divergence.

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On a daily basis,trend is showing reversal signs but price remains above the Ichimoku cloud. Price has broken below the tenkan- and kijun-sen (the red and yellow line indicators) implying increased chances of approaching the Kumo (cloud) at 100. I remain short-term bearish but will look to cover short positions near 100 as a bounce will be justified from those levels.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of gold for January 13, 2017

Gold remains in a bullish trend as long as price is above $1,177. There are bearish short-term signals of divergence. Long covering is preferred as a pullback towards $1,150-60 is the most optimistic scenario. The worst scenario is that we will see a new low in Gold price below $1,100.

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Red lines - bullish channel

Black line - divergence

Gold price continues to trade inside the bullish channel and above the Ichimoku cloud. Price could provide a new high towards $1,215-20 today. However, bulls need to be very cautious. A break below $1,177 will confirm a top is in and that the correction towards $1,150-60 has started.

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Gold price is approaching the daily Ichimoku cloud. This is important resistance. I expect price to get rejected at $1,220 and

a pullback towards $,1150-60. This pullback will be very crucial for the medium-term trend. Bulls should cover positions as at least for the short-term a pullback is justified. At the expected new high near $1,215, this will be a great opportunity.

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for Jan 13, 2017

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When the European market opens, there is no Economic Data will be, but the US will release the economic data, such as Federal Budget Balance, Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations, Business Inventories m/m, Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment, Core PPI m/m, Retail Sales m/m, PPI m/m and Core Retail Sales m/m, so, amid the reports, EUR/USD will move in a low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:

Breakout BUY Level: 1.0660.

Strong Resistance:1.0653.

Original Resistance: 1.0643.

Inner Sell Area: 1.0633.

Target Inner Area: 1.0608.

Inner Buy Area: 1.0583.

Original Support: 1.0573.

Strong Support: 1.0563.

Breakout SELL Level: 1.0556.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for Jan 13, 2017

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In Asia, Japan will release the M2 Money Stock y/y and the US will release some Economic Data, such as Federal Budget Balance, Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations, Business Inventories m/m, Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment, Core PPI m/m, Retail Sales m/m, PPI m/m and Core Retail Sales m/m. So, there is a probability the USD/JPY will move with low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:

Resistance. 3: 115.57.

Resistance. 2: 115.34.

Resistance. 1: 115.12.

Support. 1: 114.84.

Support. 2: 114.62.

Support. 3: 114.39.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

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Daily analysis of USDX for January 13, 2017

USDX was one again moving under pressure after Trump's press conference and the index tested the support level of 100.80. However, it managed to recover a little but it's headed to test the resistance level of 101.76. If USDX breaks above that area, we can expect further rallies to reach the 102.29 level. MACD indicator is supporting that scenario, as it remains in the positive territory.

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H1 chart's resistance levels: 102.29 / 102.81

H1 chart's support levels: 100.80 / 100.01

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place sell (short) orders only if the USD Index breaks with a bearish candlestick; the support level is at 100.80, take profit is at 100.01 and stop loss is at 101.58.

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Daily analysis of GBP/USD for January 13, 2017

GBP/USD gained ground during Thursday's session, finding resistance around 1.2293. However, from that zone, we saw a strong pullback and that move helped the pair to plummet toward 1.2175. If GBP/USD manages to break below and extend its decline, we can expect another fall to test the 1.2123 level. MACD indicator remains in the negative territory.

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H1 chart's resistance levels: 1.2247 / 1.2293

H1 chart's support levels: 1.2175 / 1.2123

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, sell (short) orders only if the GBP/USD pair breaks a bearish candlestick; the support level is at 1.2175, take profit is at 1.2123 and stop loss is at 1.2228.

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