Fundamental Analysis of EUR/USD for January 7, 2019

EUR/USD has been residing inside the corrective and volatile range between 1.1200 to 1.1500 area for a few weeks. EURO managed to gain momentum having better economic results published today while USD struggling with the mixed Employment reports published recently.

EUR having series of worse economic reports published recently lead to losing certain grounds against USD, but it managed to regain it soon after worse US reports. Today German Retail Sales report was published with significant increase to 1.4% from the previous value of 0.1% which was expected to be at 0.4% and SENTIX Investor Confidence increased to -1.5 from the previous figure of -0.3 which was expected to be at -2.0. Due to Holiday purchase, the Retail Sales report is assumed to gain significant momentum leading to such growth in the process. Additionally, German Factory Orders report was also published today but with decrease to -1.0% from the previous value of 0.2% which was expected to be at -0.2%.

On the other hand, ahead of FOMC Meeting and FED Chair Powell's speech on Thursday, USD is expected to regain certain momentum again if the upcoming economic results remain favorable in the process. Today, US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI is going to be published which is expected to decrease to 59.6 from the previous figure of 60.7. Though the expectation is dovish but better result may lead to impulsive gain on the USD side for the coming days as FED Chair Powell to speak this week about upcoming rate hikes in the coming months and what is the expectation of FED for 2019.

As of the current scenario, EURO managed to gain impulsive momentum today with positive economic reports, but it is currently struggling to push further in the process while ahead of high impact events and reports yet to be published on USD side which are currently quite optimistic with the expectations. As a result, certain bearish pressure is expected on the pair for the coming days.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price is currently residing at the edge of 1.1450-1.1500 resistance area from where it is expected to push lower towards 1.1200-60 support area in the coming days. Though the price is still quite volatile and corrective but residing below 1.1500 with a daily close does indicate the existence of bearish bias in the pair which might persist the bearish momentum in the coming days.

SUPPORT: 1.1200-60

RESISTANCE: 1.1450, 1.1500

BIAS: BEARISH

MOMENTUM: VOLATILE

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Good news for the euro. In the eurozone, retail sales have noticeably jumped.

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Sales in the eurozone rose in November more than expected, consumers bought more clothes and equipment, official data showed, this was another positive sign of the growth of the regional economy in the last quarter

Retail sales increased by 0.6 percent on a monthly basis, which is much higher than the growth forecast by 0.1 percent; on an annualized basis, retail trade grew by 1.1 percent. Eurostat also revised upward data for October - 0.6 percent compared with the previous month and 2.3 percent on an annualized basis instead of 0.3 percent and 2.3 percent, respectively. The data indicate a stronger economic growth in the last quarter. Prior to the publication of data on retail sales, the dismal mood of purchasing managers in December led some economists to predict weak growth.

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The retail trade in November received an impetus due to the high demand for clothing and footwear, whose sales grew by 2.7 percent over the month. Electronics sales also rose, by 1.5 percent compared with the previous month. At the same time, a decline of 0.9 percent in sales of beverages, food, and tobacco was recorded.

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Bitcoin analysis for January 07, 2019

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Trading recommendations:

According to the 30M time - frame, I found strong demand in the background and a bullish flag pattern in progress, which is a sign of potential upward continuation. My advice is to watch for a potential breakout of the bullish flag to confirm a further upward movement. The upward targets are set at the price of $4.087 and at the price of $4.184.

Support/Resistance

$4.050 – Intraday resistance

$3.926– Intraday support

$4.087 – Objective target 1

$4.184 – Objective target 2

With InstaForex you can earn on cryptocurrency's movements right now. Just open a deal in your MetaTrader4.

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BITCOIN Analysis for January 7, 2019

Bitcoin has been quite impulsive with the recent bullish momentum which nudged the price to reside above $4,000 area recently. The price bounced off the 200 EMA recently while being supported by the dynamic levels of Tenkan, Kijun, and 20 EMA. The price recently retested off the $4,000 area with a retracement. The price is now consolidating above $4,000 area which indicates further bullish pressure in the coming days. Moreover, the increased thickness of Kumo Cloud below the price line also signals further bullish pressure in the making while being retraced in the process. As the price remains above $3,500-600 area, the bullish bias is expected to continue further in the coming days.

SUPPORT: 3,500, 3,600, 4,000

RESISTANCE: 4,250, 4,500, 5,000

BIAS: BULLISH

MOMENTUM: VOLATILE

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EUR/USD analysis for January 07, 2019

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Recently, the EUR/USD pair has been trading upwards. The price tested the level of 1.1444. According to the H1 time – frame, I have found that price is trading above the Ichimoku cloud and above the daily pivot (1.1386), which is a sign that buyers are in control. I also found a breakout of the resistance cluster on the P&F chart, which is another confirmation of strength. Watch for buying opportunities. The upward target is set at the price of 1.1500.

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EUR / USD: Political clinch in Washington and US-China negotiations

China and the United States began official negotiations this morning to resolve the trade conflict. Over the past month, the parties exchanged telephone consultations, and now they have met with their own eyes as the American delegation flew to Beijing for this purpose.

The meeting takes place at a fairly "high" level, thus, its results can outline the outlines of a future agreement. The working groups were created in November last year when Chinese President Xi Jinping and American President Donald Trump at the G20 summit in Argentina agreed to conclude a broad trade deal. At least this goal was set by the superpower leaders. The two-day preliminary talks will help to understand whether to expect a deal in the foreseeable future or whether the conflict will get bogged down in months of negotiations. The US president is quite optimistic. He said the day before that he believes in the ability of the parties to make a deal, since "the tariffs were very harmful to China." At the same time, he added that he had recently talked on the phone with Xi Jinping, who confirmed earlier intentions.

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However, Beijing is going to meet not only in word but in deed. Firstly, China again began to buy soybeans from the States, and also lowered the tariffs on the import of American cars. Secondly, for the first time, the Chinese allowed importing several types of rice from the USA. Thirdly, one of the Chinese oil traders in the spring can resume supplies of American oil and although the latest information is unconfirmed, the trend itself is obvious -trade relations between countries are going through a period of "thaw". This suggests that both Beijing and Washington seriously intend to end the trade war, which is already in the first half of the year.

On the one hand, such prospects should support the American currency. By contrast, the fact is that the dollar was in demand only when the US-China conflict escalated that is on a wave of anti-risk sentiment in the market. Therefore, we now see the continuing decline in the US currency. the dollar index updates local minima, firmly entrenched in the framework of 95 points. Greenback is rapidly losing its trump cards, its attractiveness is markedly reduced respectively. After all, in addition to China, there are other factors that are putting pressure on the US currency - this is also the position of the Fed and the shutdown, personifying the political conflict between the White House and Congress. Against this background, even strong NFP could not save the situation as the dollar index continued its downward movement after a short burst.

Friday's speech by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell disappointed dollar bulls. He confirmed the "dovish" intentions to slow down the process of tightening monetary policy at least up to two rounds of a rate hike in the current year. Moreover, Powell said that the regulator "can at any time adjust its policy." This phrase had a strong influence on the sentiments of traders - both currency and stock markets. Hence, after the speech of the Fed chairman, the S&P 500 index increased by almost 3.5%. The Nasdaq immediately soared by 4.26%, and the Dow Jones index by 3.3%. But on the contrary, the dollar sank throughout the market, confirming the validity of the bearish sentiment.

The political climate in the United States only exacerbates the position of the greenback as the regular negotiations between Trump and the party leaders again failed. The American president threatened the congressmen to continue the "shutdown" for months or years, but this rhetoric did not have any effect. The new speaker of the House of Representatives of the US Congress, Nancy Pelosi, said that the Democrats would not agree to finance the wall and would not succumb to the threats of the president. It is worth noting that the position occupied by Pelosi is the third in importance in the US power structure (after the president and vice-president), therefore, her position indicates a serious political clinch, which thousands of federal agencies became hostages.

Thus, the overall situation last weekend did not change regarding the prospects for the US currency. In the coming days, greenbacks may be under additional pressure. If the US-China negotiations conclude effectively and the US consumer price index comes out at least at the forecast level. Experts expect a slowdown in inflation both in annual and monthly terms.

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If we talk directly about the euro/dollar pair, the price dynamics will also be determined by US events. As we can see, traders have actually ignored the slowdown of European inflation, focusing only on the behavior of the dollar. This means that the pair has the potential for further growth with the first northern target of 1.1470 (the upper line of the Bollinger Bands indicator on the daily chart) and the main target of 1.1515 (the upper limit of the Kumo cloud on the same timeframe). If the pair overcomes this target, then the Ichimoku Kinko Hyo trend indicator will generate a bullish signal of "Line Parade", which will open the way to the boundaries of the 16th figure.

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EUR / USD pair: plan for the American session on January 7. Eurozone data helped the euro to stay at highs

To open long positions on EUR / USD pair, you need:

A good report on retail sales in Germany and the Eurozone supported the European currency in the first half of the day, which led to consolidation above 1.1435. While trading is conducted over this range, you can count on continued growth with an update of a maximum of 1.1475, where I recommend taking profits. The main goal for the first half of the week is to update the maximum of 1.1515. If the trade moves under the level of 1.1435, it is possible to open long positions immediately to the rebound from the large support of 1.1405.

To open short positions on EUR / USD pair, you need:

The afternoon bears need to go back below the support level of 1.1435 in the morning, which will lead to profit taking in long positions and EUR / USD decline to the support area of 1.1405, where I recommend taking profits. In the event of weak fundamental statistics on the American economy, it is best to consider selling the euro to rebound from a major resistance 1.1475.

Indicator signals:

Moving averages

Trade is conducted over 30- and 50-day averages, which indicates the preservation of the bullish nature of the market.

Bollinger bands

The break of the upper border of the Bollinger Bands indicator around 1.1446 will be a signal to buy euros. In case of a decline, the lower limit of the indicator in the area of 1.1390 will provide good support to buyers.

More in the video forecast for January 7

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Description of indicators

MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow

MA (moving average) 30 days - green

MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9

Bollinger Bands 20

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Analysis of Gold for January 07, 2019

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Recently, Gold has been trading sideways at the price of $1,290.00. According to the H1 time – frame, I have found that price breached the Keltner's lower band, which is a sign that there is potential for a change in trend behavior from bullish to bearish. I also found a potential bearish flag in creation and a hidden bearish divergence on the LBR oscillator, which is another sign of weakness. My advice is to watch for selling opportunities. The downward targets are set at the price of $1,276.40 and at the price of $1,264.55.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for January 7, 2019

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On the weekly chart, the EUR/USD pair is demonstrating a long-term Head and Shoulders reversal pattern where the right shoulder is currently in progress.

On the Daily chart, the pair has been moving sideways with slight bearish tendency. Narrow sideway consolidations have been maintained within the depicted daily movement channel since June 2018.

On November 13, the EUR/USD demonstrated recent bullish recovery around 1.1220-1.1250 where the lower limit of the channel as well as the depicted demand zone came to meet the pair.

Bullish fixation above 1.1420 was needed to enhance further bullish movement towards 1.1520. However, the market has demonstrated significant bearish rejection around 1.1420 few times so far.

That's why, the EUR/USD pair has been trapped below the price level of 1.1420 waiting for bullish breakout since November 5.

Today, another attempt of bullish breakout above 1.1420 is being executed. Bullish persistence above 1.1420 enables further bullish advancement towards 1.1520 (the upper limit of the daily channel) and 1.1600 (October's High) as initial targets.

On the other hand, any bearish decline below the key-level of 1.1420 brings more sideway consolidations down to 1.1260 again.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for GBP/USD for January 7, 2019

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Since Mid-November, Successive Lower Highs were demonstrated around the price levels of 1.3060, 1.2920 and 1.2800 maintaining movement within the depicted H4 bearish channel

Shortly after, a quick bearish decline was demonstrated towards the price level of 1.2500 before bullish recovery could take place on December 12.

A bullish Head & Shoulders pattern was demonstrated on the H4 chart with neckline located around 1.2650-1.2680. Hence, a successful bullish breakout above the depicted bearish channel was demonstrated on December 24.

On December 31, early bullish breakout attempt above 1.2720 was demonstrated on the H4 chart. However, the market failed to maintain sufficient bullish momentum above 1.2800 (mid-range of the depicted consolidation range).

That's why, another bearish pullback was executed towards 1.2500 (backside of the broken channel) where significant bullish recovery was demonstrated during last Thursday's consolidations.

Another bullish breakout above 1.2720 is mandatory to resume the bullish scenario of the market towards 1.2800, 1.2880 and 1.3000. Otherwise, the pair remains trapped within the previous consolidation range (1.2500-1.2720).

Bullish persistence above 1.2550 is mandatory for buyers. Any bearish decline below 1.2600 invalidates the bullish scenario suggesting further bearish decline towards 1.2440.

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Australian and New Zealand dollars are rising on a wave of risk appetite

On Monday, the Australian and New Zealand dollars kept close to the weekly highs, as risky assets came back in demand amid expectations that politicians around the world would take action to support economic growth.

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Immediately, three events on Friday gave support to risky currencies. First, Beijing announced a new round of trade negotiations with Washington which noticeably weakened monetary policy and reduced the requirements for bank reserves in order to support the country's economy. In addition, investors were delighted by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, saying that he would be patient with regard to raising interest rates. These events gave an impetus to the stock market and helped risk-sensitive currencies to update their highs.

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However, traders should pay attention to the fact that the short-term impulse helped these currencies to be at the top but the risks that previously sent them to ten-year lows remain. In particular, any further slowdown in production in the United States or China could put pressure on the Australian dollar.

Recall that New Zealand and Australian dollars went into a tailspin last week, amid growing concerns about a possible recession in the United States, which called into question the further increase in the Fed rate. The uncertainty resulting from the trade war between the United States and China also became a burden for the market after the disappointing production data in both countries.

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Simplified wave analysis of EUR / USD pair for the week of January 7

Large-scale graph:

Throughout last year, the price of the instrument has been moving in line with the dominant decline. The structure of the trend wave traced the first two parts (AB). From the end of September, the final stage started (C).

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Medium-scale graph:

The rising wave that began on November 12 claims to be a correction in its current wave level in the H4 scale wave. It lacks the final part (C) while the structure of the middle part (B) looks completely finished.

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Small-scale graph:

The price rise that began on January 3 has a chance to become a reversal structure. In the coming days, there will be a counter-decline (B) after the price increase (A).

Forecast and recommendations:

The flat mood in the previous months will continue in the upcoming weekly period, but there are signals that the upper limit of the price range will soon break through. In the area of support, supporters of the international trade style may try to make purchases.

Resistance zones:

- 1.1490 / 1.1540

Support areas:

- 1.1350 / 1.1300

Explanations of the figures:

The simplified wave analysis uses waves consisting of 3 parts (A - B - C). For the analysis, three main TFs are used. On every last part, the incomplete wave is analyzed. Zones show calculated areas with the highest probability of reversal. The arrows indicate the wave marking by the method used by the author. The solid background shows the formed structure while the dotted shows the expected movement.

Note: The wave algorithm does not take into account the duration of tool movements over time. To conduct a trade transaction, you need confirmation signals from the trading systems you use!

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Powell disavowed a strong report on the US labor market

The US labor market continues to show results noticeably better than expected. New jobs were created in December with 312 thousand compared to the forecast of 180 thousand. Meanwhile, the two months were also revised upward by 58 thousand. The average hourly wage rose by 0.4% in December and year on year growth of 3.2% while the fact that the experts were waiting for a slowdown to 3.0%. The only negative factor is the increase in unemployment from 3.7% to 3.9%, but it also has a positive explanation. The increase in unemployment occurred against the background of a noticeable increase in labor force participation from 62.9% to 63.1%.

The market should have responded by a strong increase in demand for the dollar since the report indicates an increase in the likelihood of the economy overheating and the continuation of the Fed's tightening cycle. However, this didn't happen in reality, as Fed Chairman Powell, speaking a little later has actually devalued the strong labor market data by saying that the Fed is ready at any moment to stop reducing the balance if the markets consider liquidity to be a problem.

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Powell also drew the attention of the audience to the fact that there are no signs of rising inflation, regardless of the strong growth of the labor market, which indicates that the Phillips curve value is overvalued, and wage growth can occur without price increases.

This statement is a significant necessity because the business does not really increase but lowers its inflation expectations. the yield on 5-year TIPS bonds again decreased to 1.46% this time, which is the minimum since October 2016. Market expectations on the rate also indicate more likely a decline in 2019, but not growth, which is at odds with the Fed's plans to raise rates twice this year. The CME futures see a one-time increase of only 3.2%, while the probability of a one-time decrease for the year is already more than 36%. In other words, both the inflationary expectations and the forecast for the labor market data did not make any impression, which means that the business is preparing for the scenario of approaching the recession.

Eurozone

The latest macroeconomic data does not look optimistic for the eurozone. The PMI Markit indices slowed down in December stronger than preliminary data on the services sector and in production, the preliminary inflation index in December was 1.6%, which is significantly lower than both the November 1.9% and forecast 1.8%. Part of the slowdown in consumer prices is due to lower oil prices but the outlook for core inflation also looks unconvincing since no upward trend is noticeable.

There are no signs of an improvement in the economic situation after a severe slowdown in 2018. Tendencies indicate that the ECB does not have any need to prepare for tightening monetary policy, that is, the probability of a rate hike in the summer of 2019 decreases and perhaps, expectations are postponed to December.

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For the euro, the situation looks slightly worse than in mid-December, as the strong gap between the US ISM index and the PMI for the eurozone is not narrowing as quickly as expected. Again strong data on the US labor market suggests that the ISM slowdown will be short-lived. The euro still looks like a favorite in tandem with the dollar and will try to win back part of the many-month decline, but strong growth should not be expected.

On Monday, the EUR/USD is trading in a range with a slight upward trend. An attempt to rise to resistance 1.1455 and further to 1.1490 is likely to occur. A decrease to the support of 1.1375 is unlikely.

Great Britain

The debate on key voting in the House of Commons will begin on January 14th, hence, the situation with Brexit is still decisive. Voting will take place a little later, preliminary data indicate that Theresa May will lose, unless, of course, none of the parliamentarians change their minds.

On Friday, the pound was unexpectedly supported by a stronger-than-expected PMI index in the service sector for December, but overall, the fluctuations in the GBP/USD pair will be determined by news on the balance of power in parliament. On Monday, trading opened neutral as the pound is just below the resistance of 1.2750. If this level is surpassed, then an attempt to get to 1.2814 is possible, however, trading is more likely in the range close to the current levels.

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GBP / USD: plan for the American session on January 7. The pound buyers are trying to maintain advantage

To open long positions on GBP / USD, you need:

At the beginning of the week, the situation with Brexit leaves many questions, but the demand for the pound remains in view of the optimism associated with the positive decision of the parliament. At present, a good signal to buy will be a false break in the support area of 1.2708 or a breakthrough and consolidation above the resistance of 1.2753, which will keep demand for the pound and lead to a tested maximum of 1.2798, where I recommend fixing the profits. In the case of a decline below the support level of 1.2708, you can open long positions immediately to the rebound from 1.2658, where the lower limit of the new ascending channel will be formed.

To open short positions on GBP / USD, you need:

The failure to consolidate above the resistance of 1.2753 led to a small sale of the pound in the first half of the day, but it did not continue. Only a breakdown of support at 1.2708 will be a signal to increase short positions in GBP / USD in order to update a larger area of 1.2658, where I recommend fixing the profits. In the case of growth above 1.2753, you can take a closer look at short positions after the test of the level of 1.2798 or at a rebound from the new monthly maximum of 1.2868.

Indicator signals:

Moving Averages

Trade is conducted above the 30-day and 50-day moving, which indicates the preservation of the bullish trend.

Bollinger bands

In the case of a decrease in the pound, support will be provided by the lower limit of the Bollinger Bands indicator around 1.2708.

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Description of indicators

MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow

MA (moving average) 30 days - green

MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9

Bollinger Bands 20

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The yen is the forerunner of the storm

The best time to attack is when the opponent is sleeping or celebrating. It is relaxed and is unlikely to seriously resist. New Year's festivities allowed the "bulls" on the yen to conduct a rapid attack on the camps of competitors, which resulted in a decline of AUD / JPY and USD / JPY by 8% and by almost 4% within 8 minutes. Turkish lira lost 10% against the money of the Country of the Rising Sun. Such an extraordinary event, called a flash accident, happens extremely rarely and is a precursor of large-scale shocks. Similar yen rises took place on the eve of the Russian default of 1998 and the global financial crisis of 2008. Storm! Soon the storm will break out!

Investors do not tire of puzzling over the question of what it was. Obviously, only one thing happened in the thin market. Not only is the time when the American players turn off the monitors, and the Asian ones just turn them on, is characterized by a lack of liquidity, so the holidays have also contributed. This hour is sometimes called "witchcraft." The "black hole absorbing liquidity" sounds even louder. If an average of $ 2.7 billion passes between the end of the American Forex session and the beginning of the Asian one on the CBOE Global Markets trading platform, the figure of $ 5.5 billion occurred at the auction on January 3.

Formally, the catalyst for a surge in interest in the yen was the first fall in Chinese manufacturing activity in the manufacturing sector below the critical level of 50 in the last 19 months, and Apple's announcement that sales of the iPhone and other products in the Middle Kingdom were declining. The situation was aggravated by excessively bloated net shorts on the Japanese currency, the size of which reached a maximum of 2018. In fact, information from Apple arrived about an hour before the flash accident, and it's not at all necessary that the Chinese are reluctant to buy iPhone due to the slowdown in the economy. It is possible that consumers switched to Huawei and Xiaomi products.

Flash crashOrjg1mzMt77JeVCheB2u07IYtEpGa8xYn6_ZOmO0Of course, the parallels between the Russian default and the global financial crisis, on the one hand, and the sharp upsurges of the yen, on the other, can be done, but the behavior of other safe havens convinces that it is not the fears of the global economy that played into the hands of the yen. For example, the Swiss franc remained indifferent to both the release of Chinese PMI data and the Apple statement. As for speculative shorts, the statistics on them and so goes out with a delay, and here the situation is aggravated by the disconnection of the American government. The data was relevant as of December 21.

The most likely cause of a flash crash seems to be the actions of algorithmic systems, the efficiency of which increases in the thin market. However, the official Tokyo from this is not easier. At the end of 2018, the yen strengthened against the US dollar by 2.4%, which is its best dynamic since 2008, and then there was also a flash accident. As a result, exporters, corporate profits and the Bank of Japan, which already cannot boast of success in taming inflation, suffer.

Technically, the implementation of the target by 88.6% for the Shark pattern enhances the risks of a rollback to 38.2% and 50% of the CD wave, where it makes sense to sell a pair of USD / JPY.

USD / JPY, the daily graph

3m1W36zr2JBiZTOGO0Yg-hLfI0ZRKxjq-SeU-u9_The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Trump: the weakness of the Chinese economy gives Beijing an incentive to conclude a trade deal

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US President Donald Trump said that trade negotiations with China "are going very well" and that "the weakness of the Chinese economy has given Beijing an excuse to work hard on an agreement."

US officials are meeting with their counterparts in Beijing this week for face-to-face talks after Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping agreed in December about a 90-day truce in the trade war that shook international markets. Trump imposed hundreds of billions of dollars in import tariffs on Chinese goods, trying to force Beijing to change its practice on various issues, from industrial subsidies to the theft of intellectual property. China responded with its own tariffs.

However, US tariffs were able to damage China, but the retaliatory measures were almost imperceptible. "I think China wants to solve this problem. Their economy is not in order," Trump told reporters, adding, "I think this gives them an excellent incentive to negotiate." When asked what he expected from the talks this week in Beijing, Trump spoke on a positive note. "Negotiations in China are going very well, I really believe that they want to make a deal," he said.

On Friday, Beijing lowered requirements for bank reserves amid slowing growth in the country and pressure from the United States.Nh_mXaOem8dzj-xyU4lRd6Sp0t1GebXjiOC41Gm_

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The expected fall in the dollar, or why bears wake up this winter

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On Monday, the dollar fell against major currencies, traders are choosing a bearish position amid rising expectations that the Fed will abandon the rate hike in 2019.

In addition, risk appetite was caused by the aggressive easing of monetary policy in China, which is thus trying to solve the problem of a sharp economic downturn and the hope that Washington and Beijing will be able to conclude a trade agreement. As a result, the euro rose against the dollar by 0.22 percent, the Australian dollar, a risk appetite barometer, rose 0.2 percent and reached its highest level since December 20. In relation to the yen, the dollar fell 0.41 percent, reaching 108.09 yen. Sterling rose by 0.12 percent, to 1.2742 dollars.

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The flow of news that we have seen since Friday, raised its spirits. The market was certainly pleased with what Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said, but this reaction was negative for the dollar, while China's reduction in requirements for bank reserves led to an increase in consumption, which should support the Australian dollar.

Despite stronger than expected US employment data for December, there is a reason to believe that the world's largest economy is losing pace, and a further increase in interest rates is the last thing it needs. Powell's comments that the Central Bank is "ready to change the policy" raised the mood of investors and caused a sharp rise in US stocks. The dollar surely bypassed other currencies in 2018 due to the fact that the Fed is the only major central bank to raise rates. If the Fed keeps its stakes in 2019, there is very little chance of further strengthening the dollar.

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In 2019, currencies of emerging markets will grow - experts

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According to experts, in the coming year, the most significant growth will be demonstrated by the currencies of developing countries, primarily the Brazilian real, the Indian rupee and the South African Rand. A number of experts predict a slight rise for the Turkish lira and the Russian ruble, but with some reservations.

At the end of 2018, when US indices reached regular heights and then collapsed sharply, endless sales were recorded on emerging markets. Many market participants assumed that, against the background of a fall in the value of US assets, the currency of emerging markets would be preferable. As a result, this happened, although not all currencies showed an increase at the end of the past year.

Recall that the ruble and Russian assets remain high sanction risks, and this can scare off investors. However, at the moment, Russian bonds have one of the highest and effective interest rates, analysts emphasize.

Last year, the US dollar strengthened significantly, while the assets and currencies of developing countries dropped significantly. In the coming year, the US authorities, owning a strengthened national currency, can cheaply buy assets around the world, experts say.

Currently, many traders and economists predict a weakening US dollar. The market overestimates the strategy of the US Federal Reserve System (FRS), betting on a pause in a series of monetary tightening. In 2020, the majority of market participants expect a reduction in rates. Against this background, the US currency may weaken against other currencies, experts believe. They believe that, against the background of declining yields on treasuries, currencies of developing countries may become attractive again, but this requires stabilization of the situation on world markets

Experts find it difficult to accurately predict the dynamics of the US currency, and a number of emerging markets. At the moment, market participants are waiting for further developments.

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Simplified wave analysis of USD / JPY for January 7

Large-scale graphics:

Starting from July last year, a downward wave of the wrong kind is formed on the yen major chart, which takes the place of correction in a larger model. The structure of the oxen looks complete.

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Medium scale graphics:

The descending section of December 13 completed the bearish model of a larger scale. The price has reached the upper limit of a wide potential reversal zone.

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Small-scale graphics:

The rising section of the chart, which began on January 3, has a reversal potential in terms of its wave level. The wave has just begun to form, and before the price rises follow the correction phase.

Forecast and recommendations:

In the coming week, the price is expected to be flat fluctuations between the nearest oncoming zones. After the completion of the preparatory period, a change in the short-term trend will follow. Trading before clear reversal signals is quite risky.

Resistance zones:

- 108.80 / 109.30

Support areas:

- 106.80 / 106.30

Explanations for the figures: The simplified wave analysis uses waves consisting of 3 parts (A – B – C). For analysis, 3 consecutive graphs are used. Each of them analyzes the last, incomplete wave. Zones show calculated areas with the highest probability of reversal. The arrows indicate the wave marking by the method used by the author. The solid background shows the formed structure, the dotted - the expected movement.

Attention: The wave algorithm does not take into account the duration of tool movements over time. To conduct a trade transaction, you need confirmation signals from the trading systems you use!

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for January 07, 2019

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Overview:

Pivot: 1.1421.

The EUR/USD pair continues to move upwards from the level of 1.1342. Today, the first support level is currently seen at 1.1342, and the price is moving in a bullish channel now. Furthermore, the price has been set above the strong support at the level of 1.1342, which coincides with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. This support has been rejected three times confirming the uptrend. According to the previous events, we expect the EUR/USD pair to trade between 1.1342 and 1.1550. So, the support stands at 1.1342, while daily resistance is found at 1.1550. Therefore, the market is likely to show signs of a bullish trend around the spot of 1.1342. In other words, buy orders are recommended to be placed above the spot of 1.1342 with the first target at the level of 1.1550; and then towards 1.1603. However, if the EUR/USD pair fails to break through the resistance level of 1.1550 today, the market will decline further to 1.1257.

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Technical analysis of AUD/USD for January 07, 2019

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Overview:

The AUD/USD pair set above strong support at the level of 0.7046, which coincides with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level. This support has been rejected for four times confirming uptrend veracity. Hence, major support is seen at the level of 0.7046 because the trend is still showing strength above it.

Accordingly, the pair is still in the uptrend from the area of 0.7046 and 0.7168. The AUD/USD pair is trading in a bullish trend from the last support line of 0.7112 towards the first resistance level at 0.7168 in order to test it.

This is confirmed by the RSI indicator signaling that we are still in the bullish trending market. Now, the pair is likely to begin an ascending movement to the point of 0.7168 and further to the level of 0.7219.

The level of 0.7389 will act as major resistance and the double top is already set at the point of 0.7389. At the same time, if a breakout happens at the support levels of 0.7112 and 0.7046, then this scenario may be invalidated. But in overall, we still prefer the bullish scenario.

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Wave analysis of EUR / USD for January 7. With a "creak", but the euro continues to rise

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Wave counting analysis:

During the bidding on Friday, January 4, the pair EUR / USD ended with an increase of 5 basis points. Thus, the estimated wave 3 in s continues to be built with targets that are near the level of 127.2% and higher. The wave marking is not entirely unambiguous, the expected wave 2 in s has adopted a non-standard three wave form. Nevertheless, the minimum of wave 2 in s is now an important point of support for building the entire uptrend of the trend, originating from November 13 last year.

Sales targets:

1.1315 - 23.6% Fibonacci

1.1266 - 0.0% Fibonacci

Shopping goals:

1.1528 - 127.2% Fibonacci

1.1599 - 161.8% Fibonacci

General conclusions and trading recommendations:

The pair continues to build a wave and the entire portion of the trend, taking its beginning on November 13. Thus, now I recommend buying in small volumes (due to the ambiguous type of current wave marking) with targets located near the marks of 1.1528 and 1.1599, which corresponds to 127.2% and 161.8% Fibonacci. The correctional status of the current trend section leads to frequent corrections and rollbacks.

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Fed: Powell will not leave his post even at the request of Trump. The Fed will pursue a more transparent pricing policy.

The American dollar initially rose against the euro and a number of other world currencies against the background of good data on the US labor market, and then declined after the Fed chairman spoke on the topic of monetary policy and said that he would not leave his post, even if the USA President Donald Trump asked.

High market volatility has always been present with this kind of data, especially if they were very different from economists' expectations. It happened last Friday when the euro fell sharply, and then also quickly recovered.

According to a report by the US Department of Labor, the number of non-agricultural jobs in December 2018 increased immediately by 312,000, while economists expected the figure to be at 176,000. US President Donald Trump called the employment data released Friday unbelievable.

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The average hourly earnings also changed, which, taking into account the correction, increased by 0.4% compared to November and by 3.2% compared to the same period of the previous year.

These data indicate that the US economy has maintained a strong growth momentum at the end of 2018, even despite the situation with stock markets.

As for the general unemployment rate, it increased to 3.9% versus 3.7% in November 2018. Economists had expected unemployment, on the contrary, to drop to 3.6%.

The US service sector in December showed slower growth than in November. This happened because of the decline in the rate of new orders, which fell quite strongly. According to HIS Markit, the purchasing managers' index for the service sector in the USA in December 2018 dropped to 54.4 points, against 54.7 points in November. Let me remind you that values above 50 points indicate an increase in activity.

If, on the labor market data, the US dollar strengthened its position, then, after the Fed's speech at the forum in Atlanta, the market completely changed its direction.

Jerome Powell said that 2018 was good for the US economy, and therefore most of the important data remains strong enough to keep up the momentum in early 2019. Powell is also confident that the acceleration of wage growth, which I mentioned in the report above, will not cause serious inflationary growth in the future. Given the restrained inflation rates, the Fed will be more patient, watching further the development of the situation in the economy when deciding on interest rates.

Despite the fact that the ISM report turned out to be worse than expected, US data seems to continue to indicate a good momentum in early 2019, as consumer spending remained strong until December 2018, inclusive.

Jerome Powell also noted that current monetary policy is closely related to risk management, and the Fed is always ready to change policies, even significantly if necessary.

At the end of the speech, the Fed Chairman noted that he would not resign if even the US President asked him to do this, and the best thing he can do now is to pursue the most transparent and predictable policy.

As for the current technical picture of the EUR / USD currency pair, a further upward trend will be limited to an intermediate resistance level near 1.1450, a breakthrough of which will increase the demand for the euro, which will lead to a test of new highs in the 1.1480 and 1.1520 areas. Also, we should not forget about the downward correction, to work out the lower boundary of the ascending channel, which is located in the area of 1.1370.

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GBP / USD: plan for the European session on January 7. The pound buyers ignore Brexit problems

To open long positions on GBP / USD, you need:

British pound buyers continued to open long positions on the pound, despite the fact that the situation with Brexit has not been resolved, and just like Theresa May to get out of the current situation is not clear to anyone. At present, a good signal to buy will be a false break in the support area of 1.2708, or a breakthrough and consolidation above the resistance of 1.2753, which will keep demand for the pound and lead to a maximum test of 1.2798, where I recommend fixing the profits. In the case of a decline below the support level of 1.2708, you can open long positions immediately to the rebound from 1.2658, where the lower limit of the new ascending channel will be formed.

To open short positions on GBP / USD, you need:

Despite all the forecasts related to the sales of the pound, we see how the market is not following the scenario. Only an unsuccessful consolidation above the resistance of 1.2753 can provoke the closure of a number of long positions with a return to the intermediate support area of 1.2708 and an update of a larger area of 1.2658, where I recommend fixing the profits. In the case of growth above 1.2753, you can take a closer look at short positions after the test of the level of 1.2798 or at a rebound from the new monthly maximum of 1.2868.

Indicator signals:

Moving Averages

Trade is conducted above the 30-day and 50-day moving averages, which indicates the continued demand for the British pound.

Bollinger bands

In the case of a decrease in the pound, support will be provided by the lower limit of the Bollinger Bands indicator in the area of 1.2658, from which you can open long positions. The upward trend may be limited by the upper limit of the indicator 1.2790, from where pound sellers will return to the market.

gqMh8U99QQLUgafP5ulX13xLR4dU5Rgr_Bqb8CezDescription of indicators

MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow

MA (moving average) 30 days - green

MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9

Bollinger Bands 20

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GBP / USD. January 7th. The trading system. "Regression Channels". January 14-15, the British Parliament will vote on Brexit

4-hour timeframe

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Technical details:

The senior linear regression channel: direction - down.

The junior linear regression channel: direction - down.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - sideways.

CCI: -23.5206

The currency pair GBP / USD on Friday, January 4, also continued the upward movement and completed the Murray level of "+1/8" - 1.2756. After a strong and rather unjustified fall of the pair on January 2, the British pound has almost fully recovered. One unanswered question remains: Friday's recovery despite the nature of macroeconomic events was a short-lived phenomenon? Still, most of the news and reports from the States were on the side of the American currency. Instead of strengthening the dollar, we saw a recoilless growth of the pound sterling. Since the losses after the collapse of January 2 have already been restored, then today the pound may begin to fall in price, fulfilling Friday's news. At the same time, there is every reason to assume the completion of the entire downtrend formation by the breakdown of the level of 1.2450. At least such a hypothesis will live until the moment of voting in the British Parliament regarding the Brexit question. The specific date of the vote, January 14-15, became known. Of course, if there is no next transfer. But in any case, these dates now look just so important to the pound. In any case, even if Parliament doesn't adopt Theresa May's bill and the country takes the path of "tough" Brexit, it will be at least some clarity for the pound and traders.

Nearest support levels:

S1 - 1.2695

S2 - 1.2634

S3 - 1.2573

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 - 1.2756

R2 - 1.2817

Trading recommendations:

The currency pair GBP / USD continues to move up. Now, therefore, the relevant long positions with targets of 1.2756 and 1.2817. The color indicator Heikin Ashi 1-2 bars in blue color will signal the manual closure of longs.

It is recommended to consider selling positions not earlier than reversing the price below the moving average with the first target at 1.2573. However, it should be borne in mind that there are not many sellers at these levels now, since they are already minimal in a year and a half.

In addition to the technical picture, you should also consider the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanations for illustrations:

The senior linear regression channel is the blue lines of the unidirectional movement.

The junior linear channel is the purple lines of the unidirectional movement.

CCI is the blue line in the indicator regression window.

The moving average (20; smoothed) is the blue line on the price chart.

Murray levels - multi-colored horizontal stripes.

Heikin Ashi is an indicator that colors bars in blue or purple.

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EUR / USD. January 7th. The trading system. "Regression Channels". The market signals unavailability for new dollar purchases.

4-hour timeframe

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Technical details:

The senior linear regression channel: direction - down.

The younger linear regression channel: direction - up.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - sideways.

CCI: 27.2580

The EUR / USD currency pair on the last trading day of last week showed a diversified movement based on a large amount of macroeconomic data. First, the preliminary value of inflation in the Eurozone for December was published. The CPI was 1.6%, which is below the forecast of 1.8% and lower than the previous value of 1.9%. Thus, despite the correction to the moving average, the Euro currency came under pressure in the morning. But immediately, it is worth noting that under rather weak pressure. Further, secondly, all macroeconomic statistics from the States, except for unemployment, turned out to be impressive. The number of NonFarm Payrolls was 312 thousand, which exceeded the forecast by almost 2 times, the average hourly wage increased by 3.2%, which is also higher than the forecast. The index of business activity in the services sector Markit similarly turned out to be higher than the expectations of experts. With all this, the unemployment rate unexpectedly rose from 3.7% to 3.9%. The US dollar on this news rose first to 1.1350, that is, by about 50 points, after which it fell under sales again. The question remains: have the traders been so impressed with the unemployment rate to ignore NonFarm Payrolls? If yes, then everything is more or less logical. If not, then most likely, the hegemony of the US dollar is coming to an end, since it was the European currency that rose on strong news from America and the weak from Europe.

Nearest support levels:

S1 - 1.1414

S2 - 1.1383

S3 - 1.1353

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 - 1.1444

R2 - 1.1475

R3 - 1.1505

Trading recommendations:

The EUR / USD currency pair has overcome the moving. Thus, it is now recommended to trade on the increase with the objectives of 1.1444 and 1.1475. The pair still remains inside the wide side channel, so target levels limit the growth potential of the Euro currency.

Orders for sale in small lots can be considered no earlier than fixing the pair below the moving average line. In this case, the US dollar will get a chance to strengthen to the levels of 1.1353 and 1.1322.

In addition to the technical picture, you should also consider the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanations for illustrations:

The senior linear regression channel is the blue lines of the unidirectional movement.

The younger linear regression channel is the purple lines of the unidirectional movement.

CCI - blue line in the indicator window.

The moving average (20; smoothed) is the blue line on the price chart.

Murray levels - multi-colored horizontal stripes.

Heikin Ashi is an indicator that colors bars in blue or purple.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Analysis of the divergence of EUR / USD for January 7. The movement of the pair is still limited.

4h

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The EUR / USD currency pair reversed in favor of the euro, after the formation of the bullish divergence in the CCI indicator, and after the rebound from the correction level of 23.6% - 1.1358, continuing the growth process in the direction of the correctional level of 38.2% - 1.1446. Rebounding quotes from the Fibo level of 38.2% will allow traders to expect a reversal in favor of the US currency and a slight decline in the direction of the correction level of 23.6%. Fixing the pair above the Fibo level of 38.2% will increase the likelihood of continued growth in the direction of the next correction level of 50.0% - 1.1517.

The Fibo grid is built on extremes from September 24, 2018, and November 12, 2018.

Daily

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On the 24-hour chart, the currency pair continues to trade along the correctional level of 127.2% - 1.1285, keeping the prospects for reaching the Fibo level of 100.0% - 1.1553. Overlapping divergences on January 7th are not observed in any indicator. The end of the quotes from the correction level of 100.0% will work in favor of the American dollar and some fall in the direction of the Fibo level of 127.2%. A close below the level of 127.2% will similarly allow counting on a fall, in the direction of the correction level of 161.8% - 1.0941.

The Fibo grid is built on extremums from November 7, 2017, and February 16, 2018.

Recommendations to traders:

Purchases of the EUR / USD currency pair can be made now with a target of 1.1446 and a Stop Loss order below the Fibo level of 23.6% since the pair completed the closure above the level of 1.1358.

Sales of the EUR / USD currency pair can be carried out with the target of 1.1358 with a Stop Loss order above the Fibo level of 38.2% if the pair rebounds the correction level of 1.1446.

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Analysis of GBP / USD Divergences for January 7th. The pound shows signs of recovery.

4h

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The GBP / USD currency pair on the 4-hour chart, after rebounding from the Fibo level of 127.2% - 1.2491 and consolidation above the level of 100.0% - 1.2662, continues the growth process in the direction of the correctional level of 76.4% - 1.2812. There are no indicators of ripening divergences on January 7th. Rebound of the pair from the Fibo level of 76.4% will work in favor of the US currency and some fall towards the level of 100.0%. Closing quotations above the Fibo level of 76.4% will increase the chances of continued growth towards the next correction level of 61.8% - 1.2905.

The Fibo grid was built on extremes from August 15, 2018, and September 20, 2018.

1h

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On the hourly chart, the quotes of the pair completed above the correction level of 76.4% - 1.2725. As a result, the growth process can be continued today in the direction of the next correction level of 100.0% - 1.2815. Bearing divergence is brewing at the CCI indicator. Its education will allow us to count on a turn in favor of the US currency and a return to the Fibo level of 76.4%. Fixing the pair below this level will increase the likelihood of a further fall in the direction of the next correction level of 61.8% - 1.2669.

The Fibo grid is built on extremes from December 31, 2018, and January 3, 2019.

Recommendations to traders:

Purchases of the GBP / USD currency pair can be carried out now with a target of 1.2815 and a Stop Loss order below the level of 76.4%, as the pair completed the close above the Fibo level of 1.2725 (hourly chart) and hold them until a bearish divergence is formed.

Sales of the GBP / USD currency pair can be carried out with a target of 1.2669 and a Stop Loss order above the level of 76.4% if the pair closes below the level of 1.2725 (hourly chart).

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Forecast for AUD / USD for January 7, 2019

AUD / USD

The Australian dollar seems to have decided to become a market leader in both the fall and the rise. Behavior, however, is not leadership, which will certainly be reflected in the subsequent situation. At the moment, the price tends to work out the point of coincidence of the balance line with the Kruzenshtern line on the daily timeframe, 0.7175. And there are big doubts about the ability of the "Australian" to overcome this resistance. According to AIG, the business activity index in the Australian manufacturing sector dropped from 51.3 to 49.5 in the last month; New construction in November is projected to decrease by -0.3%.

We follow the development of the situation. A decisive price exit above 0.7175 opens a target of 0.7310. a drop in quotes below 0.7026 (Kruzenshtern line on H4) returns the pair to the medium-term decrease.

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GdAGv3c-Fez7Ag7aS3SkpTx1yWMeWRnTOzfQVtonThe material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Fractal analysis of major currency pairs for January 7

Dear colleagues.

For the Euro / Dollar currency pair, the price is near the key support for the downward structure of January 2 (1.1430). For the currency pair Pound / Dollar, we follow the formation of the ascending structure from January 2. For the currency pair Dollar / Franc, the price forms the initial conditions for the upward cycle of December 28 and the development of this structure is expected after the breakdown of 0.9926. For the currency pair Dollar / Yen, we have expanded the potential for the top from January 3 to the level of 110.12. For the currency pair Euro / Yen, the price forms the ascending structure of January 3 and the subsequent development of which is expected after the breakdown of 124.25. For the Pound / Yen currency pair, the continuation of the movement to the top is expected after the breakdown of 138.39 and 141.90 is considered a potential level.

Forecast for January 7:

Analytical review of H1-scale currency pairs:opTzVY4kEtbORjFDDTcO4tWm-SPaCwmBjdMCh1mxFor the Euro / Dollar currency pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are 1.1430, 1.1394, 1.1336, 1.1298, 1.1259, 1.1194 and 1.1148. Here, we continue to monitor the formation of the downward structure of January 2. At the moment, the price is in the correction zone. The continuation of the movement to the bottom, we expect after the breakdown of 1.1336. In this case, the first goal is 1.1298. The short-term downward movement, possibly in the range of 1.1298 - 1.1259, the breakdown of the latter value will lead to the development of a pronounced movement. Here, the target is 1.1194. The potential value for the bottom, we consider the level of 1.1148, after reaching which, we expect a rollback to the top.

The short-term upward movement, possibly in the range of 1.1394 - 1.1430 and the breakdown of the latter value will lead to the formation of an upward structure. In this case, the potential target is 1.1496.

The main trend is the formation of potential for the bottom of January 2.

Trading recommendations:

Buy 1.1435 Take profit: 1.1480

Buy Take profit:

Sell: 1.1336 Take profit: 1.1300

Sell: 1.1297 Take profit: 1.1260B9LNERwH4rKrJXVAOiOgVKGfj4O_lGtWxPRicgvnFor the Pound / Dollar currency pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are 1.2960, 1.2875, 1.2813, 1.2750, 1.2668, 1.2616 and 1.2556. Here, we are following the ascending structure of January 2. The continuation of the movement to the top, we expect after the breakdown of 1.2750. In this case, the goal is 1.2813 and in the range of 1.2813 - 1.2875 is the short-term upward movement, as well as consolidation. The potential value for the top, we consider the level of 1.2960, after reaching which, we expect a rollback to the bottom.

The short-term downward movement, possibly in the range of 1.2668 - 1.2616 and the breakdown of the latter value will lead to a prolonged correction. Here, the target is 1.2556 and this level is the key support.

The main trend is the ascending structure of January 2.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.2750 Take profit: 1.2810

Buy: 1.2815 Take profit: 1.2870

Sell: 1.2668 Take profit: 1.2618

Sell: 1.2614 Take profit: 1.2558U0tWqCryoZkaxj8BA0GTH7i6-yRBtatenzvcdJuwFor the Dollar / Franc currency pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are 1.0019, 0.9970, 0.9950, 0.9926, 0.9854, 0.9836, 0.9813 and 0.9786. Here, we are following the formation of the ascending structure of December 28. The development of the ascending structure, we expect after the breakdown of 0.9926. In this case, the target is 0.9950 and in the range of 0.9950 - 0.9970 is the consolidation. The potential value for the top, we consider the level of 1.0019, the movement to which, we expect after the breakdown of 0.9970.

The short-term downward movement, possibly in the range of 0.9854 - 0.9836 and the breakdown of the last value will lead to a prolonged correction. Here, the target is 0.9813 and this level is the key support for the upward structure.

The main trend is the formation of the initial conditions for the top of December 28.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 0.9926 Take profit: 0.9950

Buy: 0.9970 Take profit: 1.0010

Sell: 0.9854 Take profit: 0.9838

Sell: 0.9834 Take profit: 0.9815EWQ1TZXmV-fENwLwIV_FXtX98TWl_BoNyzOXvrdmFor the Dollar / Yen currency pair, the key levels on the scale are 110.12, 109.58, 109.21, 108.95, 108.63, 108.19, 107.93 and 107.52. Here, we are following the formation of the ascending structure of January 3 on the scale of M30. The continuation of the movement to the top, we expect after the breakdown of 108.63. In this case, the goal is 108.95 and the passage at the price of the range of 108.95 - 109.21 will allow us to expect the movement to the level of 109.58, near which we expect consolidation. The potential value for the top, we consider the level of 110.12, after reaching which, we expect a rollback to the bottom.

The short-term downward movement, possibly in the range of 108.19 - 107.93 and the breakdown of the latter value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the goal is 107.52 and this level is the key support for the top.

The main trend is the rising structure of January 3.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 108.65 Take profit: 108.95

Buy: 109.21 Take profit: 109.58

Sell: 108.19 Take profit: 107.95

Sell: 107.90 Take profit: 107.546-pCSUIi-ZucpJBx4ws95THqqb4XljNQ5M4EI7upFor the Canadian dollar / Dollar currency pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are 1.3490, 1.3432, 1.3395, 1.3320, 1.3271 and 1.3201. Here, we are following the downward structure of December 31. At the moment, we expect the movement to the level of 1.3320 and in the range of 1.3320 - 1.3271 is the short-term downward movements, as well as consolidation. The potential value for the bottom, we consider the level of 1.3201, after reaching which, we expect a rollback to the top.

The short-term upward movement, possibly in the range of 1.3395 - 1.3432 and the breakdown of the latter value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the target is 1.3490 and this level is the key support for the downward structure.

The main trend is the formation of a downward structure of December 31.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.3395 Take profit: 1.3430

Buy: 1.3436 Take profit: 1.3490

Sell: 1.3320 Take profit: 1.3274

Sell: 1.3268 Take profit: 1.3205

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For the Australian dollar / dollar currency pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are 0.7207, 0.7157, 0.7131, 0.7084, 0.7059 and 0.7019. Here, we are following the ascending structure of January 3. The short-term upward movement, we expect in the range of 0.7131 - 0.7157 and the breakdown of the latter value will lead to a movement to the potential target. Here, the target is 0.7207, from this level, we expect a rollback to the bottom.

The short-term downward movement, perhaps in the range of 0.7084 - 0.7059 and the breakdown of the last value will lead to a prolonged correction. Here, the target is 0.7019 and this level is the key support for the upward structure.

The main trend is the ascending structure of January 3.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 0.7131 Take profit: 0.7155

Buy: 0.7160 Take profit: 0.7205

Sell: 0.7082 Take profit: 0.7060

Sell: 0.7055 Take profit: 0.7024

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For the Euro / Yen currency pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are 125.15, 124.22, 123.74, 122.65, 122.29, 121.68 and 120.76. Here, we are following the formation of the ascending structure from January 3. The short-term upward movement, possibly in the range of 123.74 - 124.22 and the breakdown of the latter value will lead to a pronounced movement to the potential target of 125.15, from this level, we expect a rollback to the bottom.

The short-term downward movement, perhaps in the range of 122.65 - 122.30 and the breakdown of the latter value will lead to a prolonged correction. Here, the goal is 121.70 and this level is the key support for the upward structure.

The main trend is the formation of the ascending structure of January 3.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 13.74 Take profit: 124.20

Buy: 124.25 Take profit: 125.15

Sell: 122.65 Take profit: 122.30

Sell: 122.26 Take profit: 121.80

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For the Pound / Yen currency pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are 141.90, 140.50, 139.49, 138.39, 137.49, 136.81 and 135.70. Here, we are following the ascending structure of January 3. The continuation of the movement to the top, we expect after the breakdown of 138.40. In this case, the goal is 139.49 and near this level is the price consolidation. The breakdown of 139.50 will allow us to count on the movement to the level of 140.50. The potential value for the top, we consider the level of 141.90, after reaching which, we expect a rollback to the bottom.

The short-term downward movement, possibly in the range of 137.49 - 136.81 and the breakdown of the latter value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the goal is 135.70 and this level is the key support for the top.

The main trend is the ascending structure of January 3.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 138.45 Take profit: 139.45

Buy: 139.55 Take profit: 140.50

Sell: 137.45 Take profit: 136.85

Sell: 136.75 Take profit: 136.00

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com