Technical analysis of BTC/USD for 08/01/2020:

Crypto Industry News:

The American CFTC Commission has a problem finding Benjamin Reynolds, who is allegedly responsible for the Ponzi cryptocurrency program worth over $ 140 million.

The financial media reported that the CFTC has filed an application with the Southern District Court in New York. More specifically, the supervisory authority has applied for service of Reynolds' pleadings and a sixty-day extension within which the service must be performed.

In mid-June, the CFTC initiated proceedings against the company in connection with the alleged Bitcoin Ponzi scheme worth USD 147 million. The CFTC filed a charge against Reynolds for the alleged fraud of over a thousand investors for at least 22,858 Bitcoins.

In the note attached to the application, the regulatory authority explains that it attempted to deliver the letter to Reynolds to the address given as its "service address" in the founding documents of Control Finance, the program management company. When the delivery man arrived at this address, he discovered that this one does not really exist.

The CFTC also tried to email Reynolds to the only known email address associated with him and his company, but received an error message indicating that the message could not be delivered. The regulator learned from affected investors that the district prosecutor's office in Ulsan, South Korea, is also investigating this program, but similarly has not contacted Reynolds.

Fraudsters have long used the speculative enthusiasm surrounding cryptocurrencies to attract and deceive unsuspecting investors. One of the particularly well-known cryptocurrency scams is OneCoin, which was a $ 4 billion pyramid. The scam was first discovered in May 2015, however, the proceedings are still pending and the OneCoin website was not closed until early December last year.

Technical Market Overview:

The BTC/USD pair has been rallying higher and broke through the technical resistance located at the level of $8,298 just to make a new swing high at the level of $8,403 (in the time of writing the analysis). If the rally persists, then the next target for bulls is seen at the level of $8,836, but it is worth to notice, that Bitcoin has hit 50% Fibonacci retracement located at the level of $8,320 and there might be some kind of bearish reaction before the move up resume. Moreover, the Bitcoin has broken out of a narrow range located between the levels of $6,345 - $7,601, just as other main cryptocurrencies like ETH and BCH done earlier. The larger timeframe trend remains down and there are no signals of any trend reversal just yet.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - $8,248

WR2 - $7,819

WR1 - $7,642

Weekly Pivot - $7,179

WS1 - $6,988

WS2 - $6,550

WS3 - $6,318

Trading Recommendations:

The best strategy in the current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is still down. All the shorter timeframe moves are still being treated as a counter-trend correction inside of the uptrend. When the wave 2 corrective cycles are completed, the market might will ready for another impulsive wave up of a higher degree and uptrend continuation.

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Technical analysis of GBP/USD for 08/01/2020:

Technical Market Overview:

The GBP/USD pair has fallen back into the channel zone (marked on the chart in black) and is trading back and forth around the level of 1.3130. In this situation, the bulls have taken control of the market and pushed the price towards the level of 1.3131, which is the local technical resistance level, but in order to continue the move higher the bulls must break through the level of 1.3171. The momentum has changed from neutral to positive, so the odds for another move up are high. The target for bears is seen at the level of 1.3017 or 1.2988.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.3419

WR2 - 1.3347

WR1 - 1.3185

Weekly Pivot - 1.3120

WS1 - 1.2957

WS2 - 1.2894

WS3 - 1.2801

Trading Recommendations:

The best strategy for current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is up. All downward moves will be treated as local corrections in the uptrend. In order to reverse the trend from up to down, the key level for bulls is seen at 1.2756 and it must be clearly violated. The key long-term technical support is seen at the level of 1.2231 - 1.2224 and the key long-term technical resistance is located at the level of 1.3509.

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for 08/01/2020:

Technical Market Overview:

The EUR/USD pair has broken above the local technical resistance located at the level of 1.1174 and made a new local high at the level of 1.1205, just above the technical resistance at 1.1199. The momentum behind the move was positive but is now decreasing, so if this level is not clearly violated soon, then the bears will continue the sell-off towards the nearest technical support located at the level of 1.1106 - 1.1091. Currently, the price is moving up and down in a narrow zone between the levels of 1.1170 - 1.1133 as the traders await for a decisive breakout. The larger timeframe trend remains down.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.1326

WR2 - 1.1283

WR1 - 1.1212

Weekly Pivot - 1.1166

WS1 - 1.1101

WS2 - 1.1048

WS3 - 1.0979

Trading Recommendations:

The best strategy for current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is down. All upward moves will be treated as local corrections in the downtrend. The downtrend is valid as long as it is terminated or the level of 1.1445 clearly violated. There is an Ending Diagonal price pattern visible on the larget timeframes that indicate a possible downtrend termination soon. The key short-term levels are technical support at the level of 1.1040 and the technical resistance at the level of 1.1267.

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Trader's Diary: EURUSD on 01/08/2019, US Employment Report

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In the morning, markets were agitated by Iran's attacks on the US base in Iraq. There were no fatalities according to the US.

Moreover, the markets seem to calm down.

The US employment report at 13:15 UTC will be the main news if there will be no significant news from Iran.

EURUSD:

We keep purchases.

We buy from 1.1205.

We sell from 1.1120.

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Trading plan 01/08/2020 EURUSD. Iran strikes

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Iran has struck a US base in Iraq. Iran claims that there those who are dead. The US denies. Iran is threatening to launch the next strike "on US territory." In addition, Iran threatens to strike all US allies in the region if there are attacks on Iran from their territory. All this is a consequence of the US strike on General Soleimani.

The markets initially reacted nervously - gold rose to $1,616; oil has grown. The dollar fell against the yen. However, at 06:00 London time, the markets calm down.

EURUSD - the situation is still calm.

The Euro is holding the trend up.

We buy when a break up 1.1205 and 1.1240.

We sell from 1.1120.

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Indicator analysis: Daily review on GBP / USD for January 8, 2020

Trend analysis (Fig. 1).

The price may continue to move up on Wednesday with the target of 1.3197, which is a retracement level of 61.8% presented in a red dashed line. If this line is reached, a continuation of work up with the target of 1.3230 which is a retracement level of 76.4% presented in a red dashed line.

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Fig. 1 (daily chart).

Comprehensive analysis:

- Indicator analysis - up;

- Fibonacci levels - up;

- Volumes - up;

- Candlestick analysis - neutral;

- Trend analysis - up;

- Bollinger Lines - up;

- Weekly schedule - up.

General conclusion:

The price may continue to move up on Wednesday.

An unlikely scenario is from level 1.3123, which is yesterday's close of the daily candle, work down, with the target at 1.3054, the lower fractal presented in a red dashed line. The final lower target of 1.3029 is the support line from which upward movement can begin.

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EUR/USD: Donald Trump's trade duties are producing results. Euro still has a chance to grow against the US dollar

Yesterday's statistics on the US economy supported the demand for the US dollar, which managed to strengthen against a number of risky assets including euro. Reducing the US trade deficit is a direct credit to Donald Trump, who has imposed trade duties on everything that is possible. Yesterday's report indicated a reduction in imports and an increase in exports, which led to a sharp reduction in the deficit to the lowest level in the last three years.

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According to the US Department of Commerce, the foreign trade deficit decreased by 8.2% in November 2019, as compared to the previous month, which has to 43.09 billion dollars. This is in contrast to economists' expectation of a $ 43.6 billion deficit in November. A sharp drop of 5.3% in imports of capital goods, mainly computers and mobile phones, led to an overall reduction of 2.0% in imports in November. Most likely, this is directly related to the additional duties on Chinese goods, which were introduced by the White House administration in September last year. The trade deficit with China decreased by 7.9% in November, as compared to the previous month, which dense to 25.71 billion dollars.

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Meanwhile, exports increased by 0.7% in November, as compared to that of the previous month. Growth was seen in consumer and capital goods, as well as the exports of cars and machinery, after the end of the strike at General Motors Co.

A good report on growth in the US services sector from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) also led to the rise of dollar against the euro in the afternoon. The current figure once again confirms the strength of the country economy. According to the data, the non-manufacturing index rose to 55 points in December 2019, against 53.9 points in November. Let me remind you that the index values above 50 points indicate the growth of the sector. Economists had expected the index to be 54.3 points in December.

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However, problems in the production sector remain. Yesterday, a report indicating a decrease in orders for industrial goods in the United States in November last year was released. The US Department of Commerce notes, however, that the decline was mainly due to the reduction of defense industry goods, since at that time, defense spending had not yet been approved by the US Congress. According to the data, production orders fell by 0.7% to 493 billion US dollars in November, while economists had expected a 0.8% fall. Orders for defense goods also fell immediately by 35.6%, as compared to October.

Data from The Retail Economist and Goldman Sachs, as well as Redbook, were not of great interest to the market.

According to a report by The Retail Economist, the US retail sales index from the week of December 29 to January 4 fell by 0.8%, whereas over the same period in 2018-2019, it increased by 3.5%. Redbook noted that US retail sales fell by 2.6% in the first 4 weeks of December, as compared to November, and the 6.1% rise in the same period in 2018.

As for the technical picture of the EUR / USD pair, euro buyers still have a chance to correct the situation and resume the upward trend. It just needs a return to the level of 1.1180, which will strengthen the lower border of the new upward channel from the lows of January 3 and 7, and will lead to a larger upward correction of risky assets in the area of the highs of 1.1210 and 1.1240. If there is no demand for euro at the lows of yesterday, pressure will remain, which will lead to an update of support at 1.1110 and 1.1070.

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Indicator analysis: Daily review on EUR / USD on January 8, 2020

Trend analysis (Fig. 1).

On Wednesday, the price may continue to move down with the first target of 1.1112, a pullback level of 50.0% presented in a red dashed line. If this level is reached, the next goal is at 1.1104, the support line presented in a white bold line, from which upward movement is possible.

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Fig. 1 (daily chart).

Comprehensive analysis:

- Indicator analysis - down;

- Fibonacci levels - down;

- Volumes - down;

- Candlestick analysis - up;

- Trend analysis - up;

- Bollinger Lines - up;

- Weekly schedule - up.

General conclusion:

A downward trend is possible on Wednesday until 13:15 UTC.

An unlikely scenario is possible, where from 1.1142 which is a retracement level of 38.2% presented in a red dashed line, the price goes up to a retracement level of 61.8% which is at 1.1209 presented in a blue dashed line.

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Panic is growing, but the dollar remains weak. AUD and NZD are adjusted, maintaining the chances of renewed growth

Iran's missile attack on US military bases led to the renewal of maximum oil quotes and gold for the first time since March 2013, exceeding the level of $ 1,600 per ounce. The flight from risk does not yet show signs of panic, but is becoming more pronounced. The military escalation of the conflict in the Middle East will support the demand for defensive assets, primarily gold. On the other hand, Asian stock indexes declined on Wednesday morning by an average of more than 1%. Thus, the opening of Europe will be negative and the probability of panic increases.

In addition, the service industry continues to restrain the US economy from falling into recession, the ISM index rose to 55p in December, not allowing panic to intensify. At the same time, the employment index fell by 0.3p, which will not allow the dollar to resume growth due to concerns about a relatively weak non-farm report, which will be published next Friday.

The employment report will be the key economic driver of the markets in the coming days, since the sharp contrast between the ADP reports and nonfarm a month earlier should lead to a leveling out. In connection with which, ADP is expected to grow relative to November values, and decrease in nonfarm today.

In any case, there is no threat of recession in the near future. The Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank predicts US GDP growth in the 4th quarter at 2.3%, which is even slightly higher than the forecast of the Fed.

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Thus, fears that the service sector will not be able to grow forever in isolation from the physical economy will restrain the strengthening of the dollar even against the backdrop of risk aversion.

NZD/USD

The New Zealand dollar remains on the border of activity due to the lack of macroeconomic data and a large number of days off. A 2.8% rise in prices for dairy products as of January 7 restrained the correctional decline, growing concerns about the ability of the world economy to avoid a new crisis limit the activity of bulls.

Meanwhile, the likelihood of another wave of growth and renewal of a maximum of 0.6752 is reduced. A correction is likely to develop to support 0.6550, however, long-term technical indicators are still bullish, so the end of the correction will facilitate the resumption of purchases.

AUD/USD

Business activity in December both in production and in the service sector was reduced, which was accompanied by a decrease in employment - the indices remained below 50p, slightly changing compared to November, while the composite index slightly increased from 49.4p to 49.6p.

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Respondents attributed the slowdown to temporary factors such as drought. Thus, the "Aussie" did not respond significantly to signals about a slowdown in the economy. The Future Output Index is significantly higher than 50p, which indicates expectations of positive changes in the next 12 months and in the long term helps to strengthen the AUD.

Nevertheless, the Australian is declining at the moment, and the reasons for this decrease both in the good ISM report in the service sector and in a number of published second-level data, which, although they do not directly affect the AUD rate, still confirm the existence of problems in the Australian economy. The employment index from ANZ fell in December by 6.7%, and this is the second largest monthly decline since 2009. Moreover, weekly consumer sentiment also turned out to be weak, -1.7% to 106.2 a week before January 5, compared with the previous week.

Due to this, NAB Bank notes that consumers are increasingly worried about the state of the economy, fearing a large-scale slowdown, which increases the probability of a rate cut at the next RBA meeting on February 4. If the probability of a 0.25% decline was at 38% before Christmas, then it had increased to 60% as of Wednesday morning, which inevitably puts pressure on the Australian currency.

On Thursday, data on activity in the construction sector and the trade balance in November will be published, from which forecasts are negative. Most technical indicators suggest a further decrease in AUD, support of 0.6837, and a breakdown will open the direction to 0.6799. Otherwise, a reversal and growth to 0.6925 / 40 is likely, after which the decline will resume.

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Elliott wave analysis of GBP/JPY for January 8, 2020

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GBP/JPY has declined nicely from the corrective peak at 143.30 and more downside pressure remains expected towards at least 139.25 and ideally closer to the 50% corrective target at 137.31. Short-term minor resistance at 142.64 ideally will be able to cap the upside for renewed downside pressure through 141.10 towards the 139.25 support.

Only an unexpected break above key-resistance at 143.30 will question our count and indicate a possible premature low being in place at 140.81 and a new impulsive rally having started already in wave v.

R3: 143.64

R2: 143.30

R1: 142.64

Pivot: 142.40

S1: 142.00

S2: 141.55

S3: 141.10

Trading recommendation:

We are short GBP from 142.50 and we will lower our stop to 143.35.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for January 8, 2020

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EUR/JPY has decline nicely from the corrective peak at 121.46. We continue to look for more downside pressure trough support at 120.15 for a dip closer to 119.26 which marks the 50% corrective target of wave 1 and at the same time is where wave iv of one lessor degree bottomed. A test here will be a obvious target.

Short-term resistance is seen at 121.04. This resistance will ideally be able to cap the upside for renewed downside pressure towards 120.15 on the way lower to the expected target at 119.26. Only a break above key-resistance at 121.46 will indicate a premature low has been seen and a possible new impulsive rally in wave 3 towards at least 126.97.

R3: 121.46

R2: 121.18

R1: 121.04

Pivot: 120.66

S1: 120.42

S2: 120.15

S3: 119.95

Trading recommendation:

We are short EUR from 121.20 and we will move our stop lower to 121.50. We will take profit at 119.50.

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Technical analysis of AUD/USD for January 08, 2020

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Overview:

The AUD/USD pair continues to move downwards from the level of 0.6920. Yesterday, the pair dropped from the level of 0.6920 (this level of 0.6920 coincides with the daily pivot point) to the bottom around 0.6850.

Currently price is set at the 0.6872 level.

Today, the first resistance level is seen at 0.6920 followed by 0.6963 (R2), while daily support 1 is found at 0.6850.

Also, the level of 0.6920 represents a weekly pivot point for that it is acting as major resistance/support this week.

Amid the previous events, the pair is still in a downtrend, because the AUD/USD pair is trading in a bearish trend from the new resistance line of 0.6920 towards the first support level at 0.6850 in order to test it.

If the pair succeeds to pass through the level of 0.6850, the market will indicate a bearish opportunity below the level of 0.6800. Because the price is in a bearish channel now. The RSI starts signaling a downward trend.

However, if a breakout happens at the resistance level of 0.6963, then this scenario may be invalidated.

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GBP/USD: plan for the European session on January 8. Pound locked in the side channel 1.3065-1.3212

To open long positions on GBP/USD you need:

The British pound is locked in the side channel 1.3065-1.3212, beyond which it will determine the further direction of the pair. The first priority for buyers today is to maintain intermediate support at 1.3108, the formation of a false breakout will be a signal to open long positions in the expectation of a break and consolidation above resistance at 1.3160, which will lead to the upper boundary of the side channel at 1.3212, where I recommend taking profit. Only a breakthrough of this range will allow us to expect a return to annual highs in the area of 1.3282 and their update in the area of 1.3348. In the scenario of pulling down GBP/USD to the level of 1.3108, you can return to long positions on the test of the lower boundary of the channel around 1.3065, or buy the pound for a rebound from a low of 1.3018, calculated at 25-30 points of upward correction.

To open short positions on GBP/USD you need:

Important fundamental statistics are not published today, but the work of the British Parliament resumes after the holidays. This can revitalize the pound. Bears will seek to break the support of 1.3108, since consolidating just below this level will quickly push GBP/USD to the lows of 1.3064 and 1.3018, where I recommend taking profits. The formation of a false breakout and unsuccessful consolidation in the first half of the day above the resistance 1.3160 will also be an additional signal to open short positions in the pair. Otherwise, it is best to sell the pound by rebounding from the upper boundary of the side channel at 1.3212, or after a test of a high at 1.3282, while aiming for a downward correction of 25-30 points.

Signals of indicators:

Moving averages

Trade is conducted in the region of 30 and 50 moving average, which indicates the lateral nature of the market.

Bollinger bands

In the event of a decline, the pound will be supported by the lower boundary of the indicator at 1.3087, the break of which will increase the pressure on the pair. A break of the upper boundary at 1.3165 will lead to a larger upward trend.

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Description of indicators

  • Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. The graph is marked in yellow.
  • Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. The graph is marked in green.
  • MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence / Divergence - moving average convergence / divergence) Fast EMA period 12. Slow EMA period 26. SMA period 9
  • Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20
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EUR/USD: plan for the European session on January 8. US dollar is more attractive in current conditions of aggravated US-Iran

To open long positions on EURUSD you need:

Yesterday's statistics on the US economy once again indicated a stable end to 2019, which supported the US dollar against the euro. The aggravation of the military conflict between the United States and Iran has also increased the demand for the dollar. However, despite the decline in the pair, it is too early to write off euros from buyers' accounts. Today they are faced with the task of maintaining the level of 1.1147, the formation of which a false breakout will be the first signal to open long positions in the pair. An equally important goal will be to return and consolidate above the resistance of 1.1177, which will quickly return EUR/USD to the area of a high of 1.1205, where I recommend taking profits. If pressure on the euro will continue in the morning, and this can happen after the release of weak reports on German industry orders and the eurozone consumer confidence indicator, then I recommend returning to long positions after breaking support for 1.1147 only when the low of 1.1117 is updated, or buy EUR/USD immediately to rebound from the area of 1.1093.

To open short positions on EURUSD you need:

Sellers are gradually building a downward trend and today they will strive for a breakout of support at 1.1147. Consolidating below this level will increase pressure on the euro and push it down to lows of 1.1117 and 1.1093, where I recommend taking profits. A more optimal signal to open short positions in the pair would be an unsuccessful consolidation above resistance at 1.1177, a test of which can occur today in the morning. Otherwise, it is best to consider new EUR/USD sales for a rebound from the highs of 1.1205 and 1.1238. Fundamental statistics on the US economy related to the labor market will also help the dollar grow against the European currency.

Signals of indicators:

Moving averages

Trading is slightly below 30 and 50 moving averages, which indicates a turning point in the direction of euro sellers.

Bollinger bands

In case the pair declines, support will be provided by the lower boundary of the indicator in the region of 1.1125. The upper boundary of the indicator in the region of 1.1190 will act as resistance.

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Description of indicators

  • Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. The graph is marked in yellow.
  • Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. The graph is marked in green.
  • MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence / Divergence - moving average convergence / divergence) Fast EMA period 12. Slow EMA period 26. SMA period 9
  • Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20
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Technical analysis: Important intraday Level For EUR/USD, January 08,2020

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German 10-y Bond Auction, French Trade Balance, and German Factory Orders m/m reports from the euro area are on tap. The US will release such economic data as Consumer Credit m/m, 10-y Bond Auction, Crude Oil Inventories, and ADP Non-Farm Employment Change. So, amid the reports, EUR/USD will move in a medium volatility during this day.TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL: Breakout BUY Level: 1.1214. Strong Resistance: 1.1208. Original Resistance: 1.1197. Inner Sell Area: 1.1186.Target Inner Area: 1.1160. Inner Buy Area: 1.1134. Original Support: 1.1123. Strong Support: 1.1112. Breakout SELL Level: 1.1106. (Disclaimer)

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Technical analysis: Important intraday Level for USD/JPY, January 08,2020

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Consumer Confidence and Average Cash Earnings y/y reports from Japan are due. The US will release such economic data as Consumer Credit m/m, 10-y Bond Auction, Crude Oil Inventories, and ADP Non-Farm Employment Change. So, there is a probability that the USD/JPY pair will move with medium volatility during this day.TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL: Resistance. 3:109.42. Resistance. 2:108.21. Resistance. 1:108.00. Support. 1:107.74. Support. 2:107.53. Support. 3:107.32. (Disclaimer)

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Forecast for EUR/USD on January 8, 2020

EUR/USD

On Tuesday, the euro found the strength to overcome support for the Fibonacci level of 110.05 on a daily chart without a long delay. Retail sales in the euro area increased by 1.0% in November against expectations of 0.6%, the base CPI in December stayed at 1.3% YOY, but the dollar strengthened against most currencies due to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Also, the US trade balance improved from -46.9 billion to -43.1 billion in November. Business activity of ISM Non-Manufacturing increased from 53.9 to 55.0 in December. The volume of factory orders decreased by 0.7% in November, but was stopped by the previously released November industrial production by +1.1%.

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The signal line of the Marlin oscillator, as expected, went below the lower boundary of its own channel. The way to support the embedded price channel line at 1.1045 is open.

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On a four-hour chart, the price has consolidated below the MACD indicator line, the Marlin oscillator is going down.

Today, the US will show figures for new jobs in the private sector from ADP in December, the forecast of 160 thousand against 67 thousand earlier. We look forward to the euro's decline.

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Forecast for GBP/USD on January 8, 2020

GBP/USD

On Tuesday, the British pound fulfilled the 1.3205 correction target for the Fibonacci level of 200.0% on the daily chart, and from it under pressure from the dollar (the dollar index strengthened by 0.35%) it turned down with the current support of the MACD line being pushed through (blue indicator) . The Marlin oscillator is attacking the boundary with the bears' territory.

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After the price drops below yesterday's low, the nearest target of 1.2820 at the Fibonacci level of 138.2% will open. This level corresponds to the lower boundary of the October consolidation.

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The intermediate goal of the decline is the coincidence point of the MACD line with the Fibonacci level of 23.6% on the H4 chart (1.3050). Consolidating below it will strengthen the pound's fall. The signal line of the Marlin oscillator turned down from the boundary with the growth territory.

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Forecast for USD/JPY on January 8, 2020

USD/JPY

The Japanese yen did not reach the target level of 107.68 on Monday, and grew by 20 points yesterday, and it worked out the indicated target this morning due to information about Iran's missile attack on US military bases in Iraq. Apparently, a hot conflict can no longer be avoided, the yen, as a safe haven currency, will continue to strengthen (decrease on schedule) and further. Immediate goals: 107.33, 106.30, 105.08.

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On a four-hour chart, the price shows increased volatility in the Asian session, but so far it is developing under the indicator lines of balance and MACD. The Marlin signal line is wound on the boundary dividing the growth and fall zones. The observed growth can be kept by the resistance of the MACD line (108.76).

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Fractal analysis for major currency pairs on January 8

Forecast for January 8:

Analytical review of currency pairs on the scale of H1:

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For the euro / dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.1204, 1.1177, 1.1159, 1.1132, 1.1115, 1.1077 and 1.1058. Here, the price canceled the development of the upward structure from January 3 and at the moment, we are following the local downward structure from January 6. Short-term movement to the bottom is expected in the range of 1.1132 - 1.1115. The breakdown of the last value should be accompanied by a pronounced movement to the level of 1.1077. For the potential value for the bottom, we consider the level of 1.1058. After which, we expect consolidation as well as a pullback to the top.

Short-term upward movement is possibly in the range of 1.1159 - 1.1177. The breakdown of the latter value will have the potential to develop an upward structure. In this case, the first goal is 1.1204.

The main trend is the local descending structure of January 6

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.1160 Take profit: 1.1174

Buy: 1.1180 Take profit: 1.1204

Sell: 1.1132 Take profit: 1.1117

Sell: 1.1113 Take profit: 1.1080

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For the pound / dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.3417, 1.3338, 1.3282, 1.3199, 1.3097, 1.3061 and 1.3006. Here, we are following the development of the ascending structure of December 23. At the moment, the price is in the zone of initial conditions. The continuation of the movement to the top is expected after the breakdown of the level of 1.3200. In this case, the target is 1.3282. Short-term upward movement, as well as consolidation is in the range of 1.3282 - 1.3338. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level of 1.3417. Upon reaching which, we expect a pullback to the bottom.

Consolidated movement is possibly in the range of 1.3097 - 1.3061. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the target is 1.3006. This level is a key support for the top.

The main trend is the upward structure of December 23

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.3200 Take profit: 1.3280

Buy: 1.3283 Take profit: 1.3336

Sell: 1.3097 Take profit: 1.3061

Sell: 1.3058 Take profit: 1.3008

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For the dollar / franc pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 0.9742, 0.9701, 0.9681, 0.9660, 0.9648, 0.9623, 0.9606 and 0.9581. Here, we determined the subsequent targets for the downward movement from the local structure on January 3. The continuation of the movement to the bottom is expected after the price passes the noise range 0.9660 - 0.9648. In this case, the target is 0.9623. Price consolidation is in the range of 0.9623 - 0.9606. For the potential value for the bottom, we consider the level of 0.9581. Upon reaching which, we expect a pullback to the top.

Short-term upward movement is possibly in the range of 0.9681 - 0.9701. The breakdown of the latter value will favor the development of the upward structure. In this case, the first target is 0.9742.

The main trend is the downward local structure of January 3

Trading recommendations:

Buy : 0.9681 Take profit: 0.9700

Buy : 0.9705 Take profit: 0.9740

Sell: 0.9648 Take profit: 0.9625

Sell: 0.9621 Take profit: 0.9607

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For the dollar / yen pair, the key levels on the scale are : 108.76, 108.54, 108.17, 107.95, 107.70, 107.52, 107.20 and 106.76. Here, the subsequent objectives for the downward trend are determined from the medium-term downtrend on December 26. The continuation of the movement to the bottom is expected after the price passes the noise range 107.70 - 107.52. In this case, the target is 107.20. Price consolidation is near this level. The breakdown of the level of 107.20 should be accompanied by a pronounced downward movement to the potential value - 106.76.

Short-term upward movement is possibly in the range 107.95 - 108.17. The breakdown of the last value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the target is 108.54. We consider the level of 108.76 as potential for the top. We expect the initial conditions to be formed for the upward cycle before it.

Main trend: medium-term downward structure of December 26

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 107.95 Take profit: 108.15

Buy : 108.18 Take profit: 108.54

Sell: 107.52 Take profit: 107.25

Sell: 107.18 Take profit: 106.76

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For the Canadian dollar / US dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.3058, 1.3045, 1.3019, 1.3000, 1.2950 and 1.2924. Here, we are following the development of the local descending structure of December 23. The continuation of movement to the bottom is expected after the breakdown of the level of 1.2950. In this case, the target is 1.2924. We expect a key reversal to the correction from this level.

Short-term upward movement is possibly in the range of 1.3000 - 1.3019. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the target is 1.3045. The range 1.3045 - 1.3058 is a key support for the downward structure. We expect the initial conditions for the upward cycle to be formed before it.

The main trend is the local descending structure of December 23

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.3005 Take profit: 1.3017

Buy : 1.3020 Take profit: 1.3045

Sell: 1.2950 Take profit: 1.2926

Sell: Take profit:

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For the Australian dollar / US dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are : 0.6926, 0.6893, 0.6875, 0.6851, 0.6827, 0.6793 and 0.6770. Here, we continue to monitor the development of the downward cycle of December 31. Short-term downward movement is expected in the range 0.6851 - 0.6827. The breakdown of the last value should be accompanied by a pronounced downward movement. In this case, the target is 0.6793. For the potential value for the bottom, we consider the level of 0.6770. Upon reaching this level, we expect consolidation, as well as a rollback to the top.

Short-term upward movement is expected in the range 0.6875 - 0.6893. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the target is 0.6926. This level is a key support for the descending structure of December 31.

The main trend is the descending structure of December 31

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 0.6875 Take profit: 0.6890

Buy: 0.6895 Take profit: 0.6922

Sell : 0.6850 Take profit : 0.6830

Sell: 0.6825 Take profit: 0.6795

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For the euro / yen pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 121.11, 120.67, 120.45, 120.13, 119.87, 119.48 and 118.95. Here, the next objectives for the downward movement we determine from the medium-term downward structure on December 27. Short-term movement to the bottom is expected in the range of 120.13 - 119.87. The breakdown of the last value should be accompanied by a pronounced downward movement. In this case, the target is 118.95. We expect a rollback to correction from this level.

Short-term upward movement is possibly in the range of 120.45 - 120.67. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the goal is 121.11. This level is a key support for the downward structure.

The main trend is the medium-term downward structure of December 27

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 120.45 Take profit: 120.65

Buy: 120.70 Take profit: 121.10

Sell: 120.13 Take profit: 119.88

Sell: 119.85 Take profit: 119.50

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For the pound / yen pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are : 143.00, 142.22, 141.75, 140.66, 140.09, 139.31 and 138.83. Here, we are following the descending structure of December 31 as the main initial conditions. Short-term movement to the bottom is expected in the range of 140.66 - 140.09. The breakdown of the last value should be accompanied by a pronounced downward movement. In this case, the target is 139.31. For the potential value for the bottom, we consider the level of 138.83. Upon reaching which, we expect consolidation, as well as a rollback to the top.

Short-term upward movement is possibly in the range of 141.75 - 142.22. The breakdown of the last value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the goal is 143.00. This level is a key support for the bottom.

The main trend is the descending structure of December 31

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 141.75 Take profit: 142.20

Buy: 142.25 Take profit: 143.00

Sell: 140.66 Take profit: 140.10

Sell: 140.05 Take profit: 139.35

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Australian network through franc

Good evening, dear traders. Congratulations to all Orthodox Christians on Christmas! I wish you well and financial well-being!

As you have probably already noticed, I often trade certain cross-courses using the grid method. And today, as an example of one of them, I will show how you can spread the correct network of limit purchases on the highly oversold AUD/CHF instrument.

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Please note that such counter-trend sets should be carried out only after fairly strong passes and an understanding of the average rollback for the pair. You can see some part of these numbers on the screen on the left with a 5-digit dimension.

Now, if you use the lot increase coefficient, you can calculate it according to the trader's calculator.

Good luck in trading and control the risks!

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR/USD. January 7. Results of the day. European inflation pleased traders, but the euro still fell. We understand the reasons

4-hour timeframe

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Amplitude of the last 5 days (high-low): 49p - 42p - 59p - 55p - 49p.

Average volatility over the past 5 days: 51p (average).

The EUR/USD pair ends the second trading day of the week with a downward movement. Last night and this morning we talked about the general fundamental background remains in favor of the US currency. We mean the general background, and not individual macroeconomic reports. From our point of view, the euro has grown sufficiently at the end of last year, so now it is time to begin the formation of a new downward trend. Monday's macroeconomic reports, it can be said, pleased euro bulls. However, today, it seems that when the bulls could continue to develop their success, the bears seized the initiative, and we believe that they very reasonably seized it. As we have repeatedly said, the main advantage of the US dollar continues to be the strength of the American economy. The strength of the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve. Here, the euro, the EU economy and the ECB policy lose outright. But these factors are the main ones for investors and for traders. One has only to think and it becomes clear that neither the trade war with China, nor the case of the impeachment of Donald Trump, nor the military conflict with Iran did not exert due pressure on the US currency. Indeed, why should traders and big players get rid of the US dollar? Trump will not be removed from his post, since most of the senators are Republicans. Even if a miracle happens and the Senate decides to endorse the impeachment of the president, so what? A new president will be elected. Trade war with China? It has a negative impact on the US economy ... but also on the economy of the European Union, and the Chinese economy as well as many other countries of the world, which also depend on China and the United States. Military conflict with Iran? So far, Iran has not taken any retaliatory action, and if the US dollar fell every time threats were sent to Washington, then only replicas of the DPRK leader Kim Jong-un would be enough for the dollar to approach the level of two to one with the euro currency. In general, in the end, we believe that all of the topics listed above can have an impact on the US economy, on the world economy, but they have no impact on the US dollar specifically yet.

In the European Union, a report on retail sales in November was published today. Unexpectedly for many, this indicator showed an increase of 1.0% in monthly terms and 2.2% in annual terms. Predicted values were much lower. Pleased with the preliminary value of the consumer price index for December in the European Union, which fully coincided with experts' forecasts and amounted to 1.3% YOY. However, even at the time of publication of these data, the euro was no longer in demand among traders. Why? Because retail sales are not in themselves a strong indicator of the state of the economy. Because inflation coincided with the forecast and at the same time remains at a fairly low level. Because yesterday's indexes of business activity in the US manufacturing sector, which showed a positive trend, were completely ignored. Thus, we believe the resumption of the downward movement is absolutely justified.

Several macroeconomic reports have also been published in the United States today. Firstly, these are production orders for November, which fell by 0.7% MOM and turned out to be better than experts' forecasts. Secondly, the ISM index of business activity in the service sector for December was released, which amounted to 55.0, thus exceeding both the forecast value (54.5) and the previous one (53.9). Thus, in the afternoon, the US dollar had all the trump cards on hand and logically resumed strengthening.

Meanwhile, the conflict between the United States and Iran continues to erupt. During the funeral of Colonel Soleimani, who was killed on Trump's order, the local television announcer promised $80 million for Trump's head. It is difficult to say whether this was a personal initiative of the Iranian announcer, or whether the official award. We have already said that the Iranian government promised to "brutally take revenge" on Washington, and Trump promised to bomb 52 targets in Iran if Tehran inflicts any damage to the Americans or US objects.

From a technical point of view, at the current bar, the euro/dollar pair has worked the Senkou Span B line and now it will either bounce off of it or overcome it. In the second case, the chances of continuing to sharply move down. Bollinger Bands turned down, like the MACD indicator, indicating the completion of a round of upward correction. The average volatility has slightly decreased, but the lower level of volatility of 1.1144, which we designated this morning, has already been successfully worked out.

Trading recommendations:

The EUR/USD pair resumed its downward movement. Thus, now it is recommended for traders to trade in lower lots for targets with the Senkou Span B line and the support level of 1.1109. It will be possible to consider purchases of the euro/dollar pair no earlier than when the price consolidates above the Kijun-sen critical line with the first target at the resistance level 1.1224.

Explanation of the illustration:

Ichimoku indicator:

Tenkan-sen is the red line.

Kijun-sen is the blue line.

Senkou Span A - light brown dotted line.

Senkou Span B - light purple dashed line.

Chikou Span - green line.

Bollinger Bands Indicator:

3 yellow lines.

MACD indicator:

Red line and bar graph with white bars in the indicators window.

Support / Resistance Classic Levels:

Red and gray dotted lines with price symbols.

Pivot Level:

Yellow solid line.

Volatility Support / Resistance Levels:

Gray dotted lines without price designations.

Possible price movement options:

Red and green arrows.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EURUSD: Slight increase in inflation is not a reason for optimism. ECB will continue to hold a wait-and-see attitude

Today's eurozone inflation report, which was very much emphasized, did not live up to expectations, and to be more precise, it completely coincided with analysts' forecasts, as a result of which the euro almost did not respond to statistics output, slightly losing against the US dollar. The main reason for the lack of demand for risky assets was core inflation, which has not changed at all, which is likely to force the European Central Bank to continue to take a wait-and-see attitude. I spoke in more detail about the actions of the European regulator in the first quarter of this year in today's review.

According to the report, the preliminary eurozone CPI increased by 1.3% in December 2019 after rising by 1.0% in November, which is a good indicator of a recovery in pressure. The data completely coincided with the forecasts of economists. On the other hand, the Core CPI preliminary basic consumer price index, which does not take into account volatile categories and energy sources, grew by the same 1.3% in December 2019 as that of December 2018.

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The lack of growth in the base indicator once again suggests that the December surge in eurozone inflation was directly related to rising energy prices.

Could not surprise the market and data on retail sales in the eurozone. The report states that sales grew by 1.0% in November last year and by 2.2% compared to November 2018. Economists had forecast growth of only 0.6% and 1.7%, respectively. Let me remind you that, according to revised data, retail sales in the eurozone in October fell to 0.3% compared with September. Sales in November were boosted by black Friday sales.

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Today, the inflation report in Italy is also higher, which grew by 0.2% in December 2019 compared to November and only by 0.5% compared to December 2018.

Summing up all this data, we can conclude that at the beginning of this year one should not expect any active action on the part of the European Central Bank. A gradual recovery in inflation is a good sign for the economy, but achieving sustainable growth will not be so simple as it will continue to require the European regulator to maintain interest rates at zero and negative levels, as well as additional stimulation of the economy through the purchase of bonds. The return of moderate economic growth even with such low inflation is possible, although none of the economists expect a sharp jump in GDP in 2020 in the eurozone.

As for the technical picture of the EURUSD pair, the data did not lead to serious changes. Resistance has shifted to the level of 1.1200, a breakthrough of which will provide the market with new buyers of risky assets that can throw the trading instrument higher, to the highs of 1.1230 and 1.1270. Pressure on the euro will return only after the breakout of intermediate support at 1.1165, which will open a direct road to the lower boundary of the side channel at 1.1125.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com