Instaforex Daily Analysis - 8th April 2020

Today we take a look at AUDJPY and see how we are going to play the bounce!

We use Fibonacci retracements, extensions, support/resistance, momentum and trend lines to identify trading opportunities in this exciting pair today!

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Positive result from OPEC + meeting will lead to the continuation of increase in oil prices (a decline in USD/CAD and USD/NOK

Prices of crude oil received support after last week's strong growth, following directly the reports from D. Trump who said that Saudi Arabia could begin to lower the production of crude oil by 10 million barrels per day.

It seems that last week has become a reversal for oil prices. Growing hopes that Saudi Arabia, Russia and the US will still begin negotiations on the regulation of crude oil production, while maintaining quotes. On Thursday, OPEC + will meet in a video conference mode at which this issue will be discussed. So far, it is expected that a decision will be made on it to reduce oil production by 10 million barrels per day.

The question arises here: will it be enough to contribute to higher prices?

In our view, the dynamics of oil prices will depend not only on the volume of reduction adopted at the meeting, but also on the situation of the impact of coronavirus on the global economy. Locally, prices at the end of the meeting may receive significant support on Thursday, if the meeting decides to reduce production by more than 10 million barrels per day, and the implementation time will exceed the forecasted three months.and the implementation period will exceed the projected three months. At the same time, if it turns out to be less in volume and terms no more than three months, and other producers of crude oil – the United States, Brazil or Canada refuse to participate in this process, we should expect a continuation of a strong fall in quotes.

Another limiting factor for prices is the entry of the global economy into recession amid the coronavirus pandemic. Slowing economic growth automatically leads to a drop in demand for raw materials and commodity assets - industrial metals and, of course, oil. We believe that the main task facing oil producers is to bring prices back to $ 60 per barrel, and keep them in the range of $ 30–40 per barrel so that they do not collapse below the $ 20 mark, which will lead to the collapse not only in sale, but also oil producers in the traditional way.

Of course, if everything is positive on Thursday, this could serve as a good incentive to continue to cautiously strengthen commodity currencies against the US dollar. At this wave, shares of mining and energy companies will also receive support.

Forecast of the day:

The USD/CAD pair is consolidating above the level of 1.3990 expecting the result of the OPEC + meeting. If it ends positively, the pair will resume a local decline. In this case, we expect it to declinel to the level of 1.3920, and then to 1.3725, if the level of 1.3990 is broken down.

The USD/NOK pair is also consolidating only above the level of 10.1500. If the result of the OPEC + video conference is positive, then we should expect its decline to the level of 9.8650.

analytics5e8d76c2ea7db.jpg

analytics5e8d76d7edca4.jpg

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR/USD - The Dollar Srikes Back

EUR/USD has found strong resistance. Now it is dropping again. I've said in yesterday's review that the pair could register only a temporary rebound. The pair is still under massive pressure, the outlook is bearish. So EUR/USD could resume the downside movement if the USDX comes higher after yesterday's sell-off.

The US dollar as a safe-haven currency could remain strong even if the COVID-19 pandemic continues. However, USD may retreat versus its main rivals in the short term if the US reports poor economic data. EUR/USD has rallied only because the US dollar was hit by the NFP and by the Unemployment Rate.

analytics5e8d77ad53693.jpg

EUR/USD bounce back from the 1.0777 static support, but it has increased only till the weekly Pivot Point (1.0906) level. The pair is bearish as long as it is trading below the 1.1000 psychological level and below the median line (ML) of the orange descending pitchfork.

Maybe it will be better if you stay away as long as the price is trapped between the 1.1 and the 1.0777 levels because only a breakout from this area will give is a clear direction. The US dollar has taken the lead again as the USDX has edged higher today. The dollar Index further increase and a jump above the 100.93 former high will send the EUR/USD pair below the 1.0777 static support and it will confirm a significant drop.

  • TRADING RECOMMENDATIONS

A valid breakout above the Pivot Point (1.0906) will signal that EUR/USD will reach the 1.1000 level and the median line (ML) again, but a major upside movement will be confirmed if the price takes out these resistance levels.

EUR/USD could move sideways in the upcoming period, somewhere between 1.1 and the 1.0777 levels. If the pair drops below the 1.0777 level, the next targets are seen at the S1 (1.0668) level and at the lower median line (LML). A major drop will be confirmed after a valid breakdown below the S1 and below the LML.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Indicator analysis. Daily review on EUR / USD for April 8, 2020

After breaking through the support line 1.0791 (red bold line), the pair went on an upward pullback movement. Upon moving up, the price tested the pullback level of 38.2% (red dashed line). Today, the market may continue to move up. Strong calendar news for the dollar is expected at 14:30 and 18:00 UTC.

Trend analysis (Fig. 1).

Today, from the pullback level of 23.6% - 1.0858 (red dashed line), the pair may continue to move up with the target of 1.0913 - the pullback level of 38.2% (red dashed line). If this level is reached, the upward work will continue with the target of 1.0958 - a pullback level of 50.0% (red dashed line).

analytics5e8d621d1c512.jpg

Fig. 1 (daily chart).

Comprehensive analysis:

- Indicator analysis - up;

- Fibonacci levels - up;

- Volumes - up;

- Candlestick analysis - up;

- Trend analysis - up;

- Bollinger lines - down;

- Weekly schedule - up.

General conclusion:

Today, the price may continue to move up with the target at 1.0958 - a pullback level of 50.0% (red dashed line).

An unlikely scenario: from a pullback level of 50.0% - 1.0893 (blue dashed line), work down with the target at the support line 1.0784 (red bold line).

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP/USD: plan for the European session on April 8. COT reports indicate lack of willingness to trade the British pound in

To open long positions on GBP/USD, you need:

News that the health of British Prime Minister Boris Johnson is 'stable' led to a slight strengthening of the pound in the afternoon, but it did not work out to form a larger upward trend, which could re-lock the pair in the side channel where it was for the entire period of the previous week, as evidenced by data. The COT (Commitment of Traders) report for March 31 showed that traders clearly had no desire to go and take any action with the pound in such a market. There was a reduction in both long and short positions. According to the data, during the reporting week, there was a decrease in short non-profit positions from the level of 36,650 to 32,156, while long non-profit positions also fell from the level of 46,534 to 37,149. As a result, the non-commercial net position also fell to 4,993 from 10,884. Given that important fundamental statistics on the British pound are not expected today, it is likely that volatility will continue to fall, and the pair will remain in the side channel until positive news appears. Bulls need to focus on defending support 1.2285, where the formation of a false breakout will be a signal to open long positions in the expectation of a breakout and consolidation above the resistance of 1.2383, which will lead to a larger upward trend and to last week's high in the area of 1.2484, where I recommend taking profits. If there is no serious activity around 1.2285, then it is best to look at long positions again for a rebound from the support of 1.2166 in the expectation of a correction of 50-60 points within the day.

To open short positions on GBP/USD you need:

Pound sellers need to try to regain control of the market, and for this it is necessary to gain a foothold below the support of 1.2285, which they lost yesterday in the morning. A breakthrough of this level will lead to a larger sell-off of GBP/USD in the area of lows of 1.2166 and 1.2030, where I recommend taking profits. If the bears remain in standby mode and do not show any activity at a low of 1.2285, it is best to postpone short positions until a false breakout forms in the resistance area of 1.2383, which will be the first signal to sell the pound. Otherwise, it is best to short the market from the high of 1.2484, which is a large level of the previous week, or to rebound from the new resistance 1.2605.

analytics5e8d80483d807.jpg

Signals of indicators:

Moving averages

Trade is carried out in the range of 30 and 50 moving averages, which indicates market uncertainty with a further prospect of a pound decline.

Note: The period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the hourly chart H1 and differs from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the daily chart D1.

Bollinger bands

A break of the lower border of the indicator at 1.2285 will cause the pound to sharply fall. A break of the upper border of the indicator in the region of 1.2383 will lead to a larger upward correction.

Description of indicators

  • Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. The graph is marked in yellow.
  • Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. The graph is marked in green.
  • MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence / Divergence - Moving Average Convergence / Divergence). Fast EMA period 12. Slow EMA period 26. SMA period 9.
  • Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20.
  • Non-profit traders are speculators, such as individual traders, hedge funds and large institutions that use the futures market for speculative purposes and meet certain requirements.
  • Long nonprofit positions represent the total long open position of nonprofit traders.
  • Short nonprofit positions represent the total short open position of nonprofit traders.
  • The total non-profit net position is the difference between short and long positions of non-profit traders.
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR/USD: plan for the European session on April 8th. COT reports. Euro buyers are optimistic. Bulls aim for resistance 1.0897

To open long positions on EURUSD, you need:

Euro buyers' attempt to gain a foothold above the resistance of 1.0897 did not lead to anything good yesterday afternoon, and concerns related to the lack of agreement following the Eurozone finance ministers meeting put pressure on the euro, which fell below 1.0897 at the end of the day, indicating an active opposition of sellers. However, the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports for March 31 showed another increase in long positions and a decrease in short positions, as well as a sharp growth in the delta, which indicates a high probability of recovery in demand for the euro in the future. Short non-commercial positions decreased from 91,070 to 80,800, while on the contrary, long non-commercial positions jumped from 152,360 to 155,070. As a result, the non-commercial net position continued to increase its positive value to 74,247, which indicates a clear interest in purchasing risky assets at attractive crisis prices. As for the intraday strategy, at the moment, the bulls need to return to the resistance of 1.0897, which will allow the pair to maintain an upward trend and lead to a repeated update of the high of 1.0961, where I recommend taking profits. In the scenario of further decline, and this will depend on the news of the Eurogroup meeting, you can safely return to long positions on the support test of 1.0825, provided that a false breakout is formed there, or open long positions immediately from the week's low in the area of 1.0772, counting on a rebound of 40-50 points within the day.

To open short positions on EUR USD you need:

Bears declared themselves at the end of Tuesday, they then actively followed the buyers' stop orders today in the Asian session, defending the resistance of 1.0897. However, in the current conditions, it is best to open short positions only when a false breakout forms at the 1.0897 level, which will increase pressure on the euro and lead to a fall in the area of a large support of 1.0825, which formed yesterday. The longer-term goal of sellers will be at least 1.0772, where I recommend taking profits. In a scenario of growth of EUR/USD above the resistance 1.0897, and it can happen only when there is good news from the eurozone finance ministers meeting, it is best to postpone sales immediately to a rebound until a high of 1.0961 is updated, counting on a correction of 30-40 points within the day.

analytics5e8d7bab037ca.jpg

Signals of indicators:

Moving averages

Trade is carried out in the region of 30 and 50 moving average, which acts as support. Their breakout will further increase the pressure on the pair.

Note: The period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the hourly chart H1 and differs from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the daily chart D1.

Bollinger bands

A break of the lower border of the indicator at 1.0860 will cause the euro to decline further Growth will be limited by the upper level of the indicator at 1.0910, where you can sell immediately for a rebound.

Description of indicators

  • Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. The graph is marked in yellow.
  • Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. The graph is marked in green.
  • MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence / Divergence - moving average convergence / divergence) Fast EMA period 12. Slow EMA period 26. SMA period 9
  • Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20
  • Non-profit traders are speculators, such as individual traders, hedge funds and large institutions that use the futures market for speculative purposes and meet certain requirements.
  • Long nonprofit positions represent the total long open position of nonprofit traders.
  • Short nonprofit positions represent the total short open position of nonprofit traders.
  • The total non-profit net position is the difference between short and long positions of non-profit traders.
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

USDCAD Trendline breakout and Pullback. Further drop expected!

analytics5e8d6d815341a.jpg

Trading Recommendation

Entry: 1.40802

Reason for Entry: Graphical overlap

Take Profit : 1.38664

Reason for Take Profit: 61.8% Fibonacci extension

Stop Loss: 1.41638

Reason for Stop loss: 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, descending trendline resistance

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP/CAD facing bullish pressure, potential for further bounce!

analytics5e8d6c2ab2e82.jpg

Trading Recommendation

Entry: 1.71436

Reason for Entry: Horizontal pullback support, 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, 100% fibonacci extension, short term ascending support line

Take Profit : 1.76955

Reason for Take Profit: 76.4% Fibonacci retracement, horizontal pullback resistance

Stop Loss: 1.67265

Reason for Stop loss: Horizontal swing low support, 78.6% fibonacci retracement, 61.8% Fibonacci extension

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Overview of the GBP/USD pair. April 8. Reports of Boris Johnson's serious condition were not confirmed. The pound is falling

4-hour timeframe

analytics5e8d14d724c77.jpg

Technical details:

Higher linear regression channel: direction - downward.

Lower linear regression channel: direction - downward.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - sideways.

CCI: -1.4194

The British pound paired with the US dollar starts Wednesday, April 8, above the moving average line. However, we believe that the pound/dollar pair is now inside the side channel, limited by the Murray levels of "4/8"-1.2207 and "6/8"-1.2451. Thus, today the pound may be moving towards the upper limit of this channel, i.e. to the level of 1.2451. During the last trading day, no important macroeconomic reports were published. In fact, all the news still concerns the spread of "coronavirus" in the UK, non-compliance with quarantine measures by the British, as well as the condition of Prime Minister Boris Johnson, who has been in intensive care since yesterday. Interestingly, Downing Street denies the serious condition of Boris Johnson, but it also does not deny that the Prime Minister is hospitalized due to a deterioration in his health. However, officials say Johnson does not have pneumonia. It is also reported that even with mild symptoms of "coronavirus", the patient is prescribed bed rest. Boris Johnson, during his ten-day self-isolation, worked constantly and even participated in a video conference. Now British doctors will work on the recovery of the head of the country, and their American colleagues have been personally delegated by Donald Trump to help them. It is also reported that American doctors have new innovative methods of fighting the "coronavirus". Meanwhile, Boris Johnson's Deputy for the duration of his illness, Dominic Raab, said that the Prime Minister does not need artificial ventilation, and he was not diagnosed with pneumonia. According to the British Foreign Secretary, Boris Johnson's condition was stable this night, and the Prime Minister himself remains in a good mood. "He is receiving standard oxygen treatment and is breathing without any other help," Raab said. This information was confirmed by a member of the government, Michael Gove: "Boris Johnson is not on a ventilator. He continues to stay in the intensive care unit only to receive the necessary help at any time, if it is required." We can only hope that the head of the Kingdom will be all right and that the help of American doctors will not be needed.

On April 8, no important macroeconomic publications are planned again. Not in Britain or the US. Thus, the pound/dollar pair has no reason to leave the side channel today. However, we remind traders that the markets have not fully recovered from the panic and it may return at any moment. For example, the euro was trading much more volatile during the first trading day of the week than in the last two days of last week. The pound also remains fairly active, which may be enough to break out of the side channel at any time.

analytics5e8d14f17e5b7.jpg

The average volatility of the GBP/USD pair continues to decline and is already 155 points. However, the activity of traders on the pound/dollar pair still remains quite high, which should be taken into account when opening any positions. On Wednesday, April 8, we expect movement within the channel, limited by the levels of 1.2199 and 1.2509. However, the flat resumed and is limited by the Murray levels of "4/8"-1.2207 and "6/8"-1.2451, between which trading can take place today.

Nearest support levels:

S1 - 1.2329

S2 - 1.2207

S3 - 1.2085

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 - 1.2451

R2 - 1.2573

R3 - 1.2695

Trading recommendations:

The GBP/USD pair on the 4-hour timeframe is located inside the side channel. Thus, it is now recommended to trade between the upper and lower border of this channel, that is, between the levels of 12207 and 1.2451. Buy the pound with the goal of 1.2573 is recommended after fixing the price above the level of 1.2451. It is recommended to open new sell positions if the bears overcome the moving average and the level of 1.2207 with the first goal being the level of 1.2085.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical Analysis of GBP/USD for 08/04/2020:

Technical Market Outlook:

The GBP/USD pair has been trading inside of the narrow price range located between the levels of 1.2199 - 1.2411. The volatility has decreased and Cable is not able to make a new local high on H4 time frame chart. The recent low was made in a form of a Pin Bar candlestick pattern, so there is a bullish activity involved at the lower levels, but they are unable to make a higher high. The next technical support for GBP is seen at the level of 1.2014 - 1.1957 and if this level is violated, then the bears will be in control of the price again. For now, despite the oversold market conditions, the outlook remains neutral to bullish.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.2628

WR2 - 1.2555

WR1 - 1.2356

Weekly Pivot - 1.2275

WS1 - 1.2111

WS2 - 1.2024

WS3 - 1.1831

Trading Recommendations:

The fear of the coronavirus consequences is very strong among the global investors and it rules on the financial markets. On the GBP/USD pair the main trend is down, but the reversal is possible when the coronavirus pandemic will be tamed. The key long-term technical support has been recently violated (1.1983) and the new one is seen at the level of 1.1404. The key long-term technical resistance is seen at the level of 1.3518. Only if one of this levels is clearly violated, the main trend might reverse (1.3518) or accelerate (1.1404).

analytics5e8d6a80ab0a2.jpg

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical Analysis of EUR/USD for 07/04/2020:

Technical Market Outlook:

The EUR/USD pair has hit the 38% Fibonacci retracement at the level of 1.0913 and is trying to rally higher. The current price action acts as there is a Double Bottom pattern made around the support, so the odds for a rally continuation are quite high. The first obstacle that was the technical resistance located at the level of 1.0888, had been violated already and this should accelerate the rally towards the level of 1.0951. On the other hand, a failure to break out will likely result in deepening the move down and new local lows will be made. The next technical support is seen at the bottom of the swing at 1.0654 and 1.0635.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.1359

WR2 - 1.1244

WR1 - 1.0981

Weekly Pivot - 1.0872

WS1 - 1.0612

WS2 - 1.0487

WS3 - 1.0228

Trading Recommendations:

The fear of the coronavirus consequences is very strong among the global investors and it rules on the financial markets. ON the EUR/USD pair the main trend is down, but the reversal is possible when the coronavirus pandemic will be tamed. The key long-term technical support is seen at the level of 1.0336 and the key long-term technical resistance is seen at the level of 1.1540. Only if one of this levels is clearly violated, the main trend might reverse (1.1540) or accelerate (1.0336).

analytics5e8d6936e7378.jpg

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical Analysis of ETH/USD for 08/04/2020:

Crypto Industry News:

A new PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC) report showed that fundraising and cryptography mergers and acquisitions (M&A) fell last year, but that doesn't mean the cryptographic market is dying out.

It seems that the cryptographic industry cannot attract investment from institutional investors. The giant of professional PwC services said that the number and value of fundraising as well as mergers and acquisitions showed a sharp decline last year. Cryptography-related mergers and acquisitions dropped by 76% to $ 451 million in 2019, from over $ 1.9 billion in the previous year. The amount of funds raised decreased by 40% to USD 2.24 billion.

Cryptocurrency space could not attract mainstream investment, despite the fact that Bitcoin grew strongly in the second and third quarters of 2019. In July, the price reached a peak of over $ 13,500.

Given the current COVID pandemic, the report's authors argue that the cryptocurrency market will not attract mainstream investment in the near future. High volatility due to coronavirus panic and the economic downturn does not bode well for the space being created. It seems that the cryptographic industry is not resistant to global winds, and the number and value of fundraising and merger transactions can be affected in 2020.

Technical Market Outlook:

The ETH/USD high located at the level of $175.00 is still an important target for bulls that are still trying to make use of the momentum behind the recent move up and move higher towards the level of $176.78, which is a technical resistance for the price. On the other hand, if the bulls fail here, (there is a Bearish Engulfing candlestick pattern present on H4 time frame chart), then the next technical support is seen at the level of $156.24 - $153.46. Please notice the increasing momentum on ETH/USD on H4 time frame chart during the last move up.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - $180.45

WR2 - $163.97

WR1 - $154.32

Weekly Pivot - $137.76

WS1 - $127.39

WS2 - $112.43

WS3 - $101.19

Trading Recommendations:

The fear of the coronavirus consequences is very strong among the global investors and it rules on the financial markets. So far the global investors are not so keen to invest in cryptocurrency, because they are being perceived as risky assets. The larger time frame trend on Ethereum remains down and as long as the level of $214.67 is not violated, all rallies will be treated as a counter-trend corrective moves. This is why the short positions are now more preferred.

analytics5e8d67d95da05.jpg

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for 08/04/2020:

Crypto Industry News:

Bitcoin hash exploded from 91.290.582 TH / s from April 4 to 121.029.181 TH / s on April 6. Historically, Bitcoin hashrate and price showed a very close relationship, with a correlation of 0.77.

This relationship makes sense, given that hashrate represents the cost of producing Bitcoins for miners on the one hand, and the overall security of the Bitcoin network on the other. In other words, the higher the total hashrate, the more expensive it will be to take over the network. This decentralized trust is one of the key values that Bitcoin possesses.

At the same time, the price of Bitcoins increased only by 0.92%. The rapid increase in the value of hashrate is the result of a recent favorable adjustment of Bitcoin mining, which in itself was caused by an earlier decrease in the value of hashrate on the network.

If the Bitcoin / hashrate price correlation remains constant, we can expect a significant increase in prices. However, the dynamics are complicated by the upcoming halving of prizes in the form of Bitcoin blocks, for which only 36 days are left.

When everything else remains constant, the miners' income will also be halved after being halved. On the other hand, for miners' revenues to remain at the same level, the price would have to double (maintaining constant mining efficiency). The recent increase in Bitcoin hashrate may indicate that miners are betting on the second scenario.

Technical Market Outlook:

The BTC/USD pair has recovered from the recent loses. The price has hit the level of $7,028, but bulls quickly moved the rate back towards the recent high at the level of $7,392. Currently, the bulls are preparing to rally higher towards the level of $7,757. Nevertheless, if the bearish pressure will intensify again, then the price might lose the momentum and move even lower towards the technical support located at $6,908 or even towards the level of $6,586.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - $8,726

WR2 - $7,938

WR1 - $7,363

Weekly Pivot - $6,545

WS1 - $5,997

WS2 - $5,159

WS3 - $4,567

Trading Recommendations:

The fear of the coronavirus consequences is very strong among the global investors and it rules on the financial markets. So far the global investors are not so keen to invest in Bitcoin and treat BTC as a digital gold. The larger time frame trend remains down and as long as the level of $10,791 is not violated, all rallies will be treated as a counter-trend corrective moves. This is why the short positions are now more preferred.

analytics5e8d65e3752e3.jpg

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Overview of the EUR/USD pair. April 8. The EU is preparing a program to help the economy.

4-hour timeframe

analytics5e8d146e41aa8.jpg

Technical details:

Higher linear regression channel: direction - downward.

Lower linear regression channel: direction - downward.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - sideways.

CCI: 25.8662

The EUR/USD currency pair shows all the signs that it wants to resume the upward movement in accordance with our hypothesis about the formation of a "correction against correction". Recall that after the strongest fall in the quotes of the euro/dollar pair in the period between March 9 and 20, an upward correction followed, also not weak, then a downward correction, and now we can witness a new round of upward correction in the area of $1.10. If this hypothesis is correct, the pair will continue to grow on April 8 with the target - the Murray level of "2/8"-1.0986. At the moment, it can be noted that the pair overcame the moving average line, so the trend has already changed to an upward one. Doubts are now only caused by the lines Senkou span B and Kijun-sen, which the pair rested on the 4-hour chart in the trading system on the Ichimoku indicator. We discussed the situation in this article. Thus, the successful overcoming of these lines will increase the probability of further upward movement.

On Wednesday, April 8, no important macroeconomic statistics are planned again in the United States and the European Union. Thus, traders will again be deprived of the macroeconomic background, which still has no effect on the movement of the pair. Nevertheless, the macroeconomic data still arouse some interest. We have said many times that sooner or later the crisis and panic will end and the economies of all countries will begin to recover. And that's when all the indicators will be important to assess the scale of losses from the "coronavirus" epidemic. Accordingly, this data will be important for currency exchange rates. Now the market is consolidating. Although volatility remains high, there is no longer a trend in the long term. Each subsequent movement after a reversal is weaker than the previous one. Thus, as long as such "corrections against corrections" are not completed, the resumption of the trend movement should not be expected.

Meanwhile, the Council of Finance Ministers of the European Union, which is called the "Eurogroup", is considering a package of assistance for the European economy, which has suffered from the "coronavirus" epidemic. This stimulus package will be akin to the $2 trillion package adopted in the United States. Since money is not taken from anywhere, this money will simply be printed by the ECB. Or taken on credit. Or half taken on credit and printed. After that, they will be invested in the economy to minimize the consequences of quarantine measures, during which the economy is idle. The Chairman of the Eurogroup Mario Centeno expressed the hope that "Finance Ministers approved a powerful response to the pandemic coronavirus". "This will be the largest aid program in the history of the Eurogroup. We need our own plan that will help protect the most vulnerable states of the European Union in order to guarantee the exit of the single European market from this crisis without major losses," Centeno said. The 540-billion aid package will include programs that have already been announced. First, the program to protect jobs. That is, in fact, assistance to businesses that can actively lay off their workers during the crisis. Second, the European Investment Bank's 200 billion euro program to help small and medium-sized businesses. This money will most likely be provided in the form of cheap loans to finance the current activities of companies that have been affected by the quarantine. Third, a 240 billion euro program to support the most affected and weak states. "This emergency plan needs to protect our economy and social sphere", said Centeno. Also, the head of the Eurogroup, consisting of Finance Ministers of 19 EU member states said: "We are going through the worst recession in the last 70 years. And we respond with measures to preserve companies and jobs, as well as to maintain wages."

Meanwhile, the main factor blocking the work of any economy, which is the "coronavirus" epidemic, continues to remain in force. The latest news may have been a little encouraging for traders and investors. There was data that in Australia they found a drug that can kill the COVID-2019 virus within two days, and in Turkey, they invented a vaccine for which the body produces the necessary antibodies. Moreover, according to the latest information, the United States is also actively developing a vaccine against "coronavirus". However, all these drugs and vaccines have not yet been tested on humans. And even if they show their effectiveness, and it may take at least a month to study this indicator, it will take several more months before the drugs can be produced on an industrial scale, so that they are enough for everyone in need. By that time, in 1-2 months, the number of people infected with the "Chinese disease" may be three or four times more than the current almost 1.4 million. The vaccine, of course, is needed in any case, but the quarantine measures should also work. They may even be working now, because according to the latest statements from WHO representatives, the rate of growth in mortality and morbidity in Europe is beginning to slow down. This is good, but it's too early to open the champagne. No one knows whether there will be a "second wave", moreover, the virus can continue to develop at a low rate, continuing to infect more and more people. In this case, sooner or later, the number of infected people will be reduced to an absolute minimum, but by that time, the number of "deaths" can be very high. After all, the most important thing is human sacrifice. There is nothing to say about the economy. If now, when the economy is in quarantine for no more than a month and a half, the current damage and consequences are already compared to the great depression in the United States in the thirties of the last century. The scale of the crisis will be greater than its "mortgage counterpart" of 2008-2009. Thus, the economy will not begin to recover until the end of the quarantine. And the quarantine will not end until the virus stops spreading. And that's a long way off.

Both linear regression channels are directed downward, but, as we have already said, the pair should now consolidate in the area of 1.09-1.10, so the direction of the medium and long-term channels does not matter.

analytics5e8d14915f616.jpg

The volatility of the euro/dollar currency pair remains quite high. As of April 8, the average volatility value is 116 points. We believe that the markets continue to return to normal at a slow pace, however, new outbreaks of panic are possible. Today, we expect a further decrease in volatility and price movement between the levels of 1.0792 and 1.1024. The flat observed yesterday has already been completed. Now the pair is aiming for the level of 1.10, but the reversal of the Heiken Ashi indicator down will indicate the end of the upward movement.

Nearest support levels:

S1 - 1.0864

S2 - 1.0742

S3 - 1.0620

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 - 1.0986

R2 - 1.1108

R3 - 1.1230

Trading recommendations:

The EUR/USD pair started an upward movement. Thus, traders are now recommended to consider purchases with the goal of the Murray level of "2/8"-1.0986 before the reversal of the Heiken Ashi indicator down. It is recommended to sell the euro/dollar pair no earlier than the reverse price fixing below the moving average line with the first goal being the volatility level of 1.0792.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/GBP for April 8 - 2020

analytics5e8d61cfa1b52.jpg

We have seen minor support at 0.8808 that protected the downside as expected. A firm break above short-term key-resistance at 0.8866 as a break above here will be a strong indication that wave iv has completed and the final rally towards 0.9742 is unfolding.

A break above 0.8866 will also trigger a small inverted S/H/S bottom also adding support to our view that wave iv is close to completion.

R3: 0.8911

R2: 0.8866

R1: 0.8827

Pivot: 0.8808

S1: 0.8785

S2: 0.8767

S3: 0.8742

Trading recommendation:

We are long EUR from 0.8760 with our stop placed at 0.8730

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Elliott wave analysis of GBP/JPY for April 8 - 2020

analytics5e8d6072e043e.jpg

We have finally seen the spike to just above the 134.72 high (the high has been seen at 134.86). This should be enough to turn GBP/JPY lower again. Short-term resistance at 132.70 confirms that wave iv has completed and wave v to below 123.99 is developing.

This is the final decline in the five wave from 147.91 and should also be the final wave in the long-term drop from 156.61 and once this wave is completed a new rally towards at least 156.61 should be expected.

R3: 135.48

R2: 135.00

R1: 134.86

Pivot: 134.35

S1: 133.66

S2: 133.10

S3: 132.70

Trading recommendation:

We are short GBP from 134.40 with our stop placed at 135.40

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP/USD intraday high and low for APR 08, 2020

analytics5e8d4b1be30c3.jpg

The intraday high and low from the Central Bank Dealer Range (CBDR) for today usually forms at STDV 2-STDV 4 in the normal condition market. Sometimes it can reach the STDV 5-STDV 6. Here's today's level:

STDV 10 - 1.2617.

STDV 9 - 1.2590.

STDV 8 - 1.2563.

STDV 7 - 1.2536.

STDV 6 - 1.2509.

STDV 5 - 1.2482.

STDV 4 - 1.2455.

STDV 3 - 1.2428.

STDV 2 - 1.2401.

STDV 1 - 1.2374.

CBDR - 1.2347.

==================

CBDR - 1.2320.

STDV 1 - 1.2293.

STDV 2 - 1.2266.

STDV 3 - 1.2239.

STDV 4 - 1.2212.

STDV 5 - 1.2185.

STDV 6 - 1.2158.

STDV 7 - 1.2131.

STDV 8 - 1.2104.

STDV 9 - 1.2077.

STDV 10 - 1.2050.

Pay attention to the level between today & yesterday range such as 1.2536, & the previous day high 1.2384 with the previous day Low 1.2165 all this level can be a potential turning point.

(Disclaimer)

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Forecast for EUR/USD on April 8, 2020

EUR/USD

The euro correctively grew by 98 points on Tuesday, stopping at the resistance of the balance indicator line on the daily chart. The signal line of the Marlin oscillator showed a small reversal while still in the declining trend zone.

analytics5e8d5f4bbfee7.jpg

Of course, this is only an early and incomplete signal for a price reversal, the upper target of 1.0957 on the resistance of the embedded line of the price channel can be worked out. In the event of a reversal, the signal and condition of which will be overcoming the price of Monday's low (1.0768), the target opens along the lower line of the price channel at around 1.0620.

analytics5e8d5f5e777d6.jpg

On the H4 chart, the price worked out the previously determined target range of 1.0900/27 and left it back down. But the Marlin oscillator remains in the growth zone and its signal line does not show an intention to leave this zone. The price also develops above the MACD line. To change the trend to a downward price, it must overcome the support of the MACD line, and this can happen just above the signal level of 1.0768, but in general, opening a short position with overcoming just this level looks preferable.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Forecast for AUD/USD on April 8, 2020

AUD/USD

The Australian dollar reached its first bullish target yesterday, on Tuesday - the 0.6194-0.6249 range. This morning the price is going down, the Marlin oscillator showed the first sign of a downward reversal. If the reversal trend is confirmed on the H4 work schedule, we are waiting for the price at the nearest target level of 0.5824 - on the price channel line. The price exit above the upper boundary of the first target range of 0.6249 opens up the prospect of growth to the MACD line in the region of 0.6354.

analytics5e8d4d6b66c34.jpg

The price is still above the balance indicator line on the H4 chart, which slows its movement to the MACD line at 0.6035. Overcoming this line will be a condition for further price reduction to 0.5824. The Marlin Oscillator on H4 is already close to moving onto the territory of a declining trend.

analytics5e8d4d7ef23e2.jpg

So, with the price overcoming the signal level 0.6035, it is possible to open short positions with a target above 0.5824.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Forecast for USD/JPY on April 8, 2020

USD/JPY

On Tuesday, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, in connection with the expansion of the country's coronavirus epidemic, declared a state of emergency in Tokyo and six prefectures. In these regions, residents are put into isolation and most businesses stop. The government also adopted a $993 billion stimulus package. The yen remained in ignorance - stock indices continued to grow, internal stress continued to increase, and the price remained in the uncertainty range of 108.73-109.39.

analytics5e8d4f6b24043.jpg

Today's session opened under the MACD line and under the balance line of the day's half. The Marlin oscillator has come close to the boundary with the territory of the negative trend. Probably the price decided to return to the consolidation range of 106.96-107.78. The US stock indexes closed in the red zone yesterday, despite all the previous optimism, and the Nikkei 225 shows a slight increase this morning.

analytics5e8d4f7e4ed33.jpg

On the four-hour chart, the price went below the lower limit of the uncertainty range of 108.73-109.39. The immediate goal of 107.80 is open, we are waiting for it to be overcome as well as the introduction of prices in the consolidation zone of 106.96-107.78.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Comprehensive analysis of movement options of #USDX vs EUR/USD vs GBP/USD vs USD/JPY (DAILY) from April 08, 2020

Minor Operational Scale (daily time frame)

We will continue to prepare options for the development of the movement of major currency instruments #USDX, EUR / USD, GBP / USD and USD / JPY (DAILY) on April 08, 2020

____________________

US dollar index

Starting April 8, 2020, the movement of the USD index #USDX will continue to develop within the equilibrium zone (98.90 - 100.00 - 101.30) of the Minor operational scale forks. The development details of the above levels are presented on the animated chart.

The breakdown of the support level of 98.90 on the lower boundary of the ISL38.2 equilibrium zone of the Minor operational scale forks will confirm the further development of the #USDX movement which will be directed to the equilibrium zone (98.50 - 97.30 - 96.00) of the Minuette operational scale forks.

On the contrary, in case of breakdown of the resistance level of 101.20 on the upper boundary of ISL61.8 equilibrium zone of the Minor operational scale forks, the development of the dollar index movement in the 1/2 Median Line channel (100.80 - 101.90 - 102.99) of the Minuette operational scale forks will be confirmed.

The movement options of #USDX on April 08, 2020 are shown on the animated chart.

analytics5e8ca3c8d95f7.jpg

____________________

Euro vs US dollar

The single European currency EUR / USD from April 08, 2020 will continue to develop its movement within the 1/2 Median Line channel (1.0860 - 1.0950 - 1.1040) of the Minuette operational scale forks. The details are shown in the animated chart.

In case of breakdown of the resistance level of 1.1040 on the upper boundary of the 1/2 Median Line Minute channel, the development of the upward movement of EUR / USD can continue to the lower boundary of the ISL38.2 (1.1320) equilibrium zone of the Minuette operational scale forks.

Meanwhile, in case of breakdown of the support level 1.0860 on the lower boundary of the 1/2 Median Line channel of the Minuette operational scale forks, the downward movement of the single European currency will be directed to the targets :

- control line LTL (1.0790) of the Minor operational scale forks;

- minimum 1.0638;

- control line LTL (1.0530) of the Minuette operational scale forks.

The movement options of EUR / USD on April 08, 2020, depending on the development of the 1/2 Median Line Minuette channel, are shown on the animated chart.

analytics5e8ca3e08ca6c.jpg

____________________

Great Britain pound vs US dollar

The development of Her Majesty's GBP / USD / USD currency movement from April 8, 2020 will be determined by developing the boundaries of the 1/2 Median Line channel (1.2060 - 1.2280 - 1.2500) of the Minuette operational scale forks. The traffic marking details for this channel is shown on the animated chart.

The breakdown of the resistance level 1.2500 on the upper boundary of the 1/2 Median Line Minuette channel will confirm the further development of Her Majesty's currency movement in the equilibrium zone (1.2400 - 1.2700 - 1.2990) of the Minuette operational scale forks with the possibility of continuing this already in the 1/2 Median Line channel (1.2870 - 1.3160 - 1.3450) of the Minor operational scale forks.

Alternatively, if there will be a breakdown of the support level 1.2060 on the lower boundary of the 1/2 Median Line channel of the Minuette operational scale forks, then the downward movement of GBP / USD can be directed to the targets:

- control line LTL of the Minor operational scale forks (1.1955) ;

- warning line LWL38.2 Minor (1.1710);

- Starting line SSL Minuette (1.1500).

The movement options of GBP / USD on April 08, 2020 are shown on the animated chart.

analytics5e8ca3f8a5ab0.jpg

____________________

US dollar vs Japanese yen

The development and direction of the breakdown of the boundaries of 1/2 Median Line channel (108.20 - 109.40 - 110.60) of the Minor operational scale forks will determine the development of the USD / JPY currency movement on April 08, 2020. The details of testing the above levels is presented on the animated chart.

In case of breakdown of the support level of 108.20 on the lower boundary of the 1/2 Median Line channel of the Minor operational scale forks, the development of the currency of the "country of the rising sun" will continue to be confirmed within the boundaries of the equilibrium zone (108.60 - 107.20 - 105.90) and 1/2 Median Line channel (107.20 - 105.90 - 104.60) of the Minuette operational scale forks.

In contrast, in case of breakdown of the resistance level 110.60 on the upper boundary of the 1/2 Median Line channel of the Minor operational scale forks, the upward movement of USD / JPY can be continued to the goals :

- final Shift Line Minuette (111.39);

- maximum 112.22;

- final line FSL (112.90) of the Minuette operational scale forks

The movement options of USD / JPY on April 08, 2020 are shown on the animated chart.

analytics5e8ca41923d09.jpg

____________________

The review was compiled without taking into account the news background. Thus, the opening trading sessions of major financial centers does not serve as a guide to action (placing orders "sell" or "buy").

The formula for calculating the dollar index :

USDX = 50.14348112 * USDEUR0.576 * USDJPY0.136 * USDGBP0.119 * USDCAD0.091 * USDSEK0.042 * USDCHF0.036.

where the power coefficients correspond to the weights of the currencies in the basket:

Euro - 57.6% ;

Yen - 13.6% ;

Pound Sterling - 11.9% ;

Canadian dollar - 9.1%;

Swedish krona - 4.2%;

Swiss franc - 3.6%.

The first coefficient in the formula leads the index to 100 at the starting date - March 1973, when the main currencies began to be freely quoted relative to each other.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR/USD and GBP/USD. Results of April 7. Donald Trump sent medical care to Boris Johnson, who is in the intensive care unit

4-hour timeframe

analytics5e8d0bc3152e8.jpg

Average volatility over the past five days: 113p (high).

The second trading day of the week for the EUR/USD pair went exactly according to the scenario, which we described on the weekend. We said that the general picture of the situation is very much like a correction against a correction. Thus, we assumed that there would be a turn up at the beginning of this week, despite the presence of a sell signal from Ichimoku. The pair stood in one place all day on Monday, and it began the expected upward movement on Tuesday. We believe that now the pair can continue to move approximately to the level of 1.10 and stabilize in the area of 1.09-1.10. By the way, we note once again that it was from the area of 1.08-1.10 (approximately) one and a half months ago that strong growth first began, and then an even stronger decline in the pair's quotes. Regarding volatility, markets are calming down, but this does not mean that they have completely done so. The pair has already passed about 142 points during the day and so far no correction has been observed against the main movement. Consequently, growth can continue, and volatility at the end of the day will be even higher. But even 140 points for the EUR/USD pair is an extremely large amount. Therefore, now we can again argue that the panic has returned to the markets or, at least, traders are again in a very excited state.

No important macroeconomic data in the course of the day has not been published. We can only highlight the report on industrial production in Germany for February. This indicator was -1.2% in annual terms, which is much better than the forecast values, as well as +0.3% in monthly terms. However, we have repeatedly said that traders have no interest in the data for the month of February. Moreover, market participants manage to ignore the most important macroeconomic statistics for March. Thus, the report from Germany for February could not cause any reaction a priori. Nevertheless, we note that the rate of decline has slightly decreased. Recall that in the European Union and, in particular, in Germany, the growth rate of industrial production has been declining for a year and a half. And it is unlikely that the coronavirus will allow them to start growing. Most likely, in March, we are waiting for new cuts in production indicators. This will apply to both the European Union and the United States. There were no publications from the US today, not even minor ones.

US President Donald Trump is still the main newsmaker of the world, as he manages to hand out interviews, make posts on social networks and does not miss a single important topic from his attention. For example, Trump had a phone conversation with his main rival in the 2020 election, former US Vice President Joe Biden. Both sides called the conversation "warm and good." According to sources close to Joe Biden, the Democrat shared several of his proposals for countering the coronavirus infection. The US president himself said that "the conversation was good" and he understood the point of view of his counterpart. However, Trump also noted that this does not mean that he agrees with Biden's opinion. The US president also managed to comment on the question of why the United States recorded the highest number of cases of coronavirus. According to Trump, the number of infected people is much higher in many countries of the world than official figures say . However, "the more tests you conduct, the more cases there are," Trump said, hinting that the United States has conducted a huge number of tests for the COVID-2019 virus, which clearly can not boast of other countries. "More than a million tests for the disease have been conducted in the United States," Trump said.

From a technical point of view, the euro/dollar pair has now worked out the Kijun-sen and Senkou span B lines of the Ichimoku indicator, so it can rebound from them, starting a downward correction. Also, the price has reached the upper Bollinger band, so it has additional resistance. In addition, the volatility level for April 7 has been worked out.

4-hour timeframe

analytics5e8d0bd84b1c9.jpg

Average volatility over the past five days: 157p (high).

The GBP/USD currency pair also began a round of upward movement on April 7, but in this case, the upward movement takes place inside the side channel. The pound is now flat, and the volatility levels on April 7 show the boundaries of this side channel as well as possible. Thus, until the pair's quotes leave this channel, which at the moment can be limited by the levels of 1.2200 and 1.2450, there is no talk of resuming the trend movement. The volatility of the pound/dollar pair remains quite high. The last average is 157 points; today the pair has already passed 220. Thus, just like in the case of the euro currency, the markets again begin to behave very aggressively if not to panic. Therefore, a second wave of panic is possible in the near future, but it will depend on many fundamental factors. For example, from the further spread of coronavirus in the European Union, Great Britain and the United States, from the development of vaccines against the virus, from the extension of quarantine measures in all of the above countries, from the cost of oil, from new possible drops in stock indices.

It should also be noted that at this time, the head of the UK, Boris Johnson, is in intensive care. And frankly, this is a very, very bad sign for the British prime minister. In most cases, coronavirus is mild and no worse than a common cold or flu. Only in 10-20% of cases it gives complications, and usually only in those cases when the immunity is weak or the body is weakened by other diseases. Thus, the intensive care unit is a bad sign. However, representatives of US pharmaceutical companies have already gone from America on Trump's personal instructions, who considers Johnson his friend. These companies have recently been developing a drug against coronavirus. "I spoke with two leading companies. They really advanced the therapy and have already arrived in London. Let's see if we can help Johnson. We have contacted all of Boris's doctors and will see what happens," Trump said. The US president did not specify which companies are in question and what treatment methods they can offer. However, it seems that this is an innovative method. If so, then it seems that the British doctors are unable to cope with Johnson's disease by conventional means and methods.

Recommendations for EUR/USD:

For short positions:

The EUR / USD pair started an upward correction against the Dead Cross on the 4-hour timeframe. A price rebound from the Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines could trigger a resumption of the downward movement with the target at a volatility level of 1.0687. In this case, you can consider new sell positions in small lots.

For long positions:

It is recommended to buy the EUR/USD pair before consolidating the price above the Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines, which will indicate the resumption of an upward trend. The first goal in this case is the resistance level of 1.1043.

Recommendations for GBP/USD:

For short positions:

The pound/dollar pair is now inside the side channel, limited by levels of 1.2200 and 1.2450. Thus, it is recommended to trade either on the rebound from the upper or lower boundary of the channel, or wait for the completion of the flat. Short positions can be considered after breaking the level of 1.2200 with the aim of the line Senkou Span B.

For long positions:

It will be possible to buy the GBP/USD pair before consolidating the price above the level of 1.2450 with targets at resistance levels of 1.2584 and 1.2693.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR/USD. Cautious optimism, Reuters insider and the dollar's vulnerability

The US currency continues to retreat: despite a strong price spurt last week, dollar bulls could not hold their positions. The dollar index again fell below the 100-point mark, and currency pairs of the major group changed their configurations to one extent or another. The EUR/USD pair was no exception here – the price not only rebounded from the local low of 1.0768, but also swung to the ninth figure.

Moreover, in this case, the pair is growing not only because of the general weakening of the dollar, but also due to the strengthening of the European currency (look, for example, the dynamics of the cross-pairs EUR/CHF EUR/GBP and especially EUR/JPY). Traders are somewhat optimistic about the possible outcome of the online summit of EU leaders, which will be held the day after tomorrow, April 9. This optimism is quite justified if you believe the information from Reuters. According to them, this week the European Union will agree on a 500-billion package of assistance to overcome the consequences of the coronavirus. And although the issue of crown bonds has not yet been removed from the agenda, most likely, the Europeans will resort to other options and tools.

analytics5e8d1205a361b.jpg

According to Reuters, the first measure involves the creation of reserve credit lines up to 2% of the country's gross domestic product, and a total of 240 billion euros. Loans will be issued with minimal conditions, which will primarily focus on health issues and macroeconomic reforms. In addition, Brussels plans to provide the European investment bank with additional guarantees of 25 billion euros, so that the bank, in turn, can increase lending by 200 billion euros (in addition to the existing increase in lending by 40 billion euros). Third, EU leaders should support the European Commission's plan to subsidize the wages of workers affected by the epidemic. Finally, the leaders of European countries will probably support the plan of the European Commission and the Netherlands to create an emergency support fund that allocates grants for medical supplies and medical services (total amount – 20 billion euros).

The President of the European Council of the EU, Charles Michel, assured reporters that the joint group is preparing a "very strong package" that will include various tools and mechanisms to support the European economy. That is why the EUR/USD bulls did not wait for the results of today's meeting and "trusted" the optimistic insider of Reuters.

Actually, for this reason, it is not necessary to open long positions now – because if the de facto parties do not come to a preliminary agreement, a powerful price pullback will follow for the EUR/USD pair, up to the local low of 1.0768. But if the Reuters information is confirmed, the pair can test both the lower and upper boundaries of the Kumo cloud on the daily chart (1.0990 and 1.1010, respectively). It is also necessary to monitor the dynamics of Covid-19 distribution, both around the world and in key countries. The US currency is very sensitive to the news flow on this topic. As soon as the first signs of stabilization appeared, the dollar weakened in almost all pairs, as risk sentiment increased in the market. And vice versa – as soon as the situation begins to deteriorate, the greenback will again be in favor, serving as the main defensive tool.

Meanwhile, the news regarding the spread of Covid-19 is extremely controversial, so we can not talk about a certain optimism here. On the one hand, Australia, Turkey and the US have already developed vaccines against the new virus. They are now being tested on animals, and in some cases on humans. According to experts, mass production of the vaccine may begin in a few months. In addition, it became known that in China, no fatal cases of coronavirus were recorded during the day. In some European countries, the situation has also stabilized (the press even talked about easing the quarantine regime), although the latest data are still disappointing. In particular, in Italy, indicators have been steadily declining in recent days, and the authorities have started talking about reducing mortality. But today it became known that more than 600 patients died in the country over the past day – this is over a hundred people more than the previous figure. In Spain, the number of infected patients is more than 140,000, and the total number of deaths is approaching 14,000. Despite such terrible figures, they are still below the highest figures that were recorded a few days ago. In other words, we can assume that the highest point in this country has already been reached. But the French authorities are waiting for the epidemic to peak soon. Against this background, they have tightened quarantine measures – for example, from today in Paris, you can not engage in any sport in public places from 10 am to 7 PM. The most severe situation persists in the United States – where more than 10,000 people have died from the coronavirus, and the total number of infected has reached almost 365,000.

analytics5e8d121b203e8.jpg

Thus, there are not many reasons for optimism today. Therefore, the general craving for risk in the currency market can quickly be replaced by a surge in anti-risk sentiment. This suggests that in the context of EUR/USD, you can not rely only on the decline of the US currency. In the short term (today and tomorrow), it is advisable to focus on the European currency, which, in turn, will respond to the results of negotiations to agree on a 500-billion package of financial assistance. If the ministers agree on the main positions, the pair will jump to the nearest support levels of 1.0990 and 1.1010. Otherwise, there will be a price retreat to the bottom of the eighth figure or even lower – to the support level of 1.0768 (a two-week price low).

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com