EUR and GBP: The direction of the euro is not defined, and the pound strengthened in the hope of approval of the agreement

The weak report on industrial production in Germany once again reminded investors that the situation in the eurozone is far from ideal, and most likely, the expectation of a stronger strengthening of risky assets in the medium term will not be entirely the right decision.

According to the data, in January of this year, industrial production fell by 0.8% compared with December, while economists had expected growth of 0.4%.

It is quite possible that the revised report for December partially smoothed the market reaction, since in December 2018 compared with November, production increased by 0.8%, rather than decreased by 0.4%, as previously thought.

Questions are caused by exports, which did not change in January compared with December, but imports grew by 1.5%. Germany's foreign trade surplus in January amounted to 18.5 billion euros against 19.9 billion euros in December last year.

All this once again proves that even though the German economy avoided a recession at the end of last year, there is no obvious change for the better in the first quarter of this year.

In the afternoon, data on US retail sales came out, which turned out to be better than economists' forecasts, which returned demand for the US dollar.

According to a report by the US Department of Commerce, retail sales in January rose by 0.2% compared with the previous month to $ 504.4 billion, while economists predicted that sales would remain unchanged in January.

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As for sales, excluding transportation costs, consumer spending increased by 1.2% compared with December 2018.

The technical picture in the EURUSD pair remained unchanged. Further growth will be limited by a large resistance level of 1.1260, from which sellers of risky assets will begin to return to the market. However, a breakthrough of this range may lead to a reversal of the downward trend. A more likely scenario for the pair would be a rebound from the resistance of 1.1260, with an update of a minimum of 1.1200. Only from there will real buyers return to the market, betting on further euro growth in the short term.

The British pound continues to gradually strengthen its position, as some experts expect the British Parliament to make concessions as the date of March 29, to which the UK leaves the EU, is appointed, and accept the Brexit agreement proposed by the Prime Minister.

The probability that it will be decided to extend the effect of Art. 50 of the Treaty of Lisbon, which provides for the extension of the UK exit from the EU, is higher. This increases uncertainty and will affect investment and the business climate in the future.

The EU today announced that there are currently no plans for new meetings at the level of political leadership to discuss Brexit, but they are open to meeting with negotiators from the UK at any time.

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GBP / USD: plan for the US session on March 11. Pound buyers are trying to return to the market

To open long positions on GBP / USD you need:

In the first half of the day, I paid attention to buying in case of a false breakdown of the level of 1.2970, which led to an increase in the pound and consolidation above the resistance of 1.3026. At the moment, while trading is conducted above this range, the demand for GBP / USD will continue, and the main goal will be to update the maximum of 1.3082, where I recommend fixing the profits. In the case of a downward correction in the second half of the day, long positions can be viewed at the rebound from support 1.3015 - 1.3020.

To open short positions on GBP / USD you need:

Considering the new short positions in the pound is now optimal from the resistance of 1.3082 under the condition that a false breakdown is formed or to rebound from the high of 1.3148. Given that tomorrow there will be another vote in the British Parliament on the Brexit issue, the pressure on the pound may continue. Return under the support of 1.3026 will return new sellers to the market in order to update the area of 1.2970 and enter a new minimum of 1.2909, where I recommend fixing the profits.

Indicator signals:

Moving Averages

Trade is conducted in the area of 30-day and 50-medium moving, which indicates a high probability of a side channel with the advantage of sellers.

Bollinger bands

In the case of a decrease in the pound in the afternoon, support may be provided by the average Bollinger Bands indicator around 1.2995.

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Description of indicators

  • MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow
  • MA (moving average) 30 days - green
  • MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9
  • Bollinger Bands 20
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR / USD: plan for the US session on March 11. Upward correction slows down

To open long positions on EURUSD you need:

The euro buyers expectedly failed to cope with the resistance level of 1.1259, which I paid attention to in my morning review, which indicates a slowdown in the upward correction. From a technical point of view, the picture has not changed. The main objective of the bulls remains a breakthrough of a maximum of 1.1259, which will lead to further growth of the euro and the resistance test 1.1288, and this will completely reverse the current downward trend that was formed last Thursday. In case of a pair decline, the level of support will be the area of 1.1225, however, it is best to open long positions from it on a false breakdown. It is best to buy for a rebound from a minimum of 1.1200, where bulls will try to build the lower boundary of the new ascending channel.

To open short positions on EURUSD you need:

The bears have perfectly fulfilled the level of 1.1259, to which I paid attention in my morning review, which renewed the pressure on the euro. The new goal of sellers is to return under the support of 1.1225, a breakthrough of which will lead to a larger reduction in EUR / USD along with the trend to the area of minimum 1.1200 and 1.1175, where I recommend fixing the profits. Under the scenario of a larger growth of the euro above 1.1259, you can sell on a rebound from the area of 1.1288.

Indicator signals:

Moving Averages

Trade remains above 30-day and 50- moving averages, which indicates the lateral nature of the market, but a return below the averages may lead to a new wave of euro sales.

Bollinger bands

A break of the lower limit of the Bollinger Bands indicator in the 1.1225 area will lead to a decrease in EUR / USD.

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Description of indicators

  • MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow
  • MA (moving average) 30 days - green
  • MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9
  • Bollinger Bands 20
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

What can motivate the Fed to raise the interest rate?

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According to some experts, despite the fact that the US Federal Reserve took the pause in the process of tightening monetary policy, the likelihood of an increase in interest rates in the second half of this year is still possible.

What can motivate the Fed to raise rates? First of all, these are statistics on the American labor market and inflation in the country.

According to the latest data, last month, the number of new jobs in the United States increased by only 20 thousand, after the January growth of 311 thousand. However, this news was not so bad for the dollar due to unexpectedly strong wages.

So, in February, the average hourly rate increased by 0.4%, and in annual terms - by 3.4%, reaching a maximum in almost 10 years. At the same time, the unemployment rate fell from 4.0% to 3.8%, which also became a positive moment for the greenback.

It should be noted that wage growth is important for the currency market as a whole and for the dollar in particular, since this news may keep the Fed from further easing rhetoric. From this point of view, it will be necessary to follow up on what the representatives of the regulator will pay more attention to in their next speeches: weak data on new jobs or increased inflationary pressure from wages.

Another key indicator for the Fed is inflation. Tomorrow, the release of this indicator for February will be published. Analysts predict that in the previous month, as in January, annual inflation accelerated by 1.6%. If the indicator exceeds the expectations of experts, the Fed will have additional arguments in favor of the fact that it is early to stop monetary tightening, and the dollar, in turn, will strengthen against many world currencies.

The former head of the New York Fed William Dudley believes that investors should not rely heavily on a pause in tightening the monetary policy of the Fed, since the Central Bank can still continue to increase interest rates.

"I think that the regulator is likely to keep the interest rate unchanged over the next few months, but everything is in the area of assumptions," he said.

If we proceed from this point of view, then the Fed has at least three more meetings (March 20, May 1 and June 19) in order to assess the course of events, including the trade negotiations between Washington and Beijing, the slowdown in global economic growth, and the steady decline in the number of free workers in the American economy.

Meanwhile, Morgan Stanley experts believe that the Fed will raise interest rates at a slower pace than previously expected.

"According to our estimates, the regulator will raise the cost of borrowing only once this year - in December. It is not excluded that he may take a waiting position until inflation in the country accelerates by mid-2020, after which the Central Bank will raise the rate in June, September, and December. By the end of 2020, the federal funding rate will be 3.375%," they noted.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP / USD. March 11. The trading system. "Regression Channels". UK: will there be a second referendum?

4-hour timeframe

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Technical details:

The senior linear regression channel: direction - up.

The younger linear regression channel: direction - up.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - down.

CCI: -170.0806

The currency pair GBP / USD continues to move down. On Monday, March 11, it is likely to be the most peaceful day for the pound this week. Recall that tomorrow, March 12, the first vote will be held in the British Parliament - by agreement of Theresa May with the EU. According to the absolute majority of experts, as well as members of parliament themselves, this transaction will be rejected. The reason is simple as a day, the current version of the "deal" is not much different from what the parliament blocked in January. The negotiations of the last months between London and Brussels yielded no results. On March 13 and 14, a vote will be held for leaving the EU without a "deal" and for a deferment of Brexit. And, most likely, Brexit will take two or three months. Thus, the position of Theresa May after the very likely failure of the new vote will be further undermined. No one doubts that the prime minister has been finalizing the last weeks in parliament. It is expected that Theresa May will resign no later than June 2019. However, the question remains with further negotiations with the EU. The postponement of Brexit will give extra time, but for productive negotiations, we need the desires of both sides to make concessions. Otherwise, we will get a new Brexit lock in three months. Maybe it's better to hold a second referendum?

Nearest support levels:

S1 - 1.2939

S2 - 1,2878

S3 - 1.2817

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 - 1.3000

R2 - 1.3062

R3 - 1.3123

Trading recommendations:

The pair GBP / USD continues to move down. Thus, now sell orders with targets 1.2939 and 1.2878 are relevant before the start of the upward correction, which Heikin Ashi indicator will signal.

Buy positions are recommended to be opened in case the pair manages to overcome the moving. In this case, the trend in the instrument will change to ascending again and the long positions with targets at 1.3184 and 1.3245 will become relevant.

In addition to the technical picture should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanations for illustrations:

The senior linear regression channel is the blue lines of the unidirectional movement.

The junior linear channel is the purple lines of the unidirectional movement.

CCI is the blue line in the indicator regression window.

The moving average (20; smoothed) is the blue line on the price chart.

Murray levels - multi-colored horizontal stripes.

Heikin Ashi is an indicator that colors bars in blue or purple.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR / USD. March 11. The trading system. "Regression Channels". The euro rose slightly but is unlikely to break the downward

4-hour timeframe

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Technical details:

The senior linear regression channel: direction - down.

The junior linear regression channel: direction - sideways.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - down.

CCI: -172.2114

The currency pair EUR / USD on Monday, March 11, began an upward correction, which was signaled by the indicator Heikin Ashi. The new trading week has begun, but the EUR / USD pair will obviously be in the shadow of the GBP / USD pair during it. This week in the UK, there will be several votes on Brexit options, so it will be the British pound that will focus the attention of traders. As for the EUR / USD pair, last week, it broke through the most important support area of 1.1250 - 1.1290 and now, in technical terms, nothing prevents it from continuing to move down. As we understood from the last meeting of the ECB, the regulator does not intend to take any tightening measures in 2019, which means that the EU and the US will continue to skew the monetary policies. On this basis, a downward Heikin Ashi indicator will signal a resumption of a downtrend. Today in the United States, reports on retail sales for January will be published. After the failure of data in December, all derivatives of the indicator is now expected to increase. Thus, the US dollar today may receive some fundamental support. No macroeconomic publications are planned for today in the European Union.

Nearest support levels:

S1 - 1.1230

S2 - 1.1169

S3 - 1.1108

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 - 1.1292

R2 - 1.1353

R3 - 1.1414

Trading recommendations:

The EUR / USD currency pair has begun to adjust. Thus, it is now recommended to wait for the completion of the correction and resume trading for a fall with the goal of Murray level "-1/8" - 1.1169.

Buy positions can be viewed after the price is fixed above the moving average line. In this case, the long positions will become relevant with the first goal of 1.1353.

In addition to the technical picture should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanations for illustrations:

The senior linear regression channel is the blue lines of the unidirectional movement.

The younger linear regression channel is the purple lines of the unidirectional movement.

CCI - blue line in the indicator window.

The moving average (20; smoothed) is the blue line on the price chart.

Murray levels - multi-colored horizontal stripes.

Heikin Ashi is an indicator that colors bars in blue or purple.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Yen starts a new life

Fans of the Japanese yen throws it in the heat then in the cold. After an impressive start due to a flash accident, the currency of the Land of the Rising Sun fell into disfavor amid improved global risk appetite. The readiness of the Fed to make a long pause in the process of normalizing monetary policy and progress in the negotiations between the US and China have pushed the US stock indexes to their maximum levels since mid-autumn. At the same time, interest in the carry trade operations and sales of funding currencies have returned. Obviously, in such conditions, the yen had a hard time, but spring came and the situation on Forex begins to change.

Dow Jones and USD / JPY Dynamics

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Investors understand that in the face of deteriorating macroeconomic statistics across the States amid a slowdown in the US economy and a strong US dollar, shares cannot grow for an infinitely long time. As we move to the upward, stock indexes drop in speed and corrections become deeper and deeper. The high cost of currency risk hedging when investing in US assets makes Japanese companies think three times before investing money abroad. Finally, the divergence in monetary policy can finally play on the side of the "bears" in the USD/JPY pair.

Inside the financial sector of the rising sun, there is more and more talk about the need for normalization. Despite the large-scale monetary incentive target of 2%, it is still elusive, however, the side effects of the programs can criticize Haruhiko Kuroda and his team. First of all, this concerns losses on banking transactions. In addition, borrowers are in no hurry to take loans for business development, believing that rates will remain at extremely low levels for a very long time. Finally, the government does not know of measures in attracting new financial resources and thus violates fiscal discipline due to the low cost of borrowing.

Smoke without fire. No matter how much Haruhiko Kuroda says about the readiness to expand the scope of QE if necessary, investors understand that the potential of the program and the capabilities of the regulator are generally limited. Rumors of normalization can be a powerful foundation for strengthening the yen. Moreover, the derivatives market increases the likelihood of a reduction in the federal funds rate in 2019 which currently exceeds 15%. Thus, if in 2015 the divergence played on the side of the "bulls" on USD/JPY pair then later in 2019, it may become the trump card of the bears.

At the same time, it is impossible to speak with complete confidence that the pair will go down. To do this, first of all, you need a worsening global risk appetite, which can be based on disappointing macroeconomic statistics for the States and (or) an escalation of the trade conflict. Perhaps, change the arena of hostilities can be an option; for example, the USA and the EU can participate in them.

Technically, the transformation of the Shark pattern in 5-0 continues. If the bears manage to drop the USD/JPY quotes below 110.8 (61.8%) and 109.65 (50%), the initiative will go into their hands. To continue the rally of "bulls", it needs a confident rally to the resistance levels of 112.5 and 113.5.

USD / JPY daily graph

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Simplified Wave Analysis. Overview of #USDX (US dollar index) for the week of March 11

Large TF:

The rising wave dominating from the beginning of last year is developing according to the impulse scenario. Since the beginning of autumn, the last section has been developed in it, in which the first parts (A + B) have been completed.

Small TF:

The bullish wave of January 10 achieved strong resistance. In recent days, downward movement with strong reversal potential develops, which indicates the beginning of the correction.

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Forecast and recommendations:

In the coming days, the dollar will mainly move in the lateral plane, to the lower border of the flat range. Further change is expected in the course and re-growth rate. Traders can use the described sequence of the motion algorithm, first making short-term purchases and then looking for signals to sell national currencies in the main pairs.

Resistance zones:

- 98.50 / 98.70

- 97.60 / 97.80

Support areas:

- 96.90 / 96.70

Explanations for the figures: The simplified wave analysis uses waves consisting of 3 parts (A – B – C). On each of the considered scales of the graph, the last, incomplete wave is analyzed. Zones show calculated areas with the highest probability of reversal. The arrows indicate the wave marking by the method used by the author. The solid background shows the formed structure, the dotted - the expected movement.

Note: The wave algorithm does not take into account the duration of tool movements over time. To conduct a trade transaction, you need confirmation signals from the trading systems you use!

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Analysis of the divergence of EUR / USD for March 11. A possible correctional pullback on the euro

4h

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The EUR / USD pair on the 4-hour chart performed a reversal in favor of the European currency and consolidation above the correction level of 100.0% - 1.1216. As a result, on March 11, the growth process of quotations can be continued in the direction of the next Fibo level of 76.4% - 1.1299. The ripening divergences today are not observed in any indicator. Closing the rate of the pair below the Fibo level of 100.0% will work in favor of the American currency and resuming the fall in the direction of the correctional level of 127.2% - 1.1120.

The Fibo grid is built on extremums from November 12, 2018, and January 10, 2019.

Daily

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On the 24-hour chart, the pair closed below the correction level of 127.2% - 1.1285. Thus, the drop in quotations is expected in the direction of the next correctional level of 161.8% - 1.0941. Fixing the pair above the Fibo level of 127.2% can be interpreted as a reversal in favor of the EU currency and expect some growth in the direction of the correction level of 100.0% - 1.1553. Maturing divergences are not observed on the current chart.

The Fibo grid is built on extremums from November 7, 2017, and February 16, 2018.

Recommendations to traders:

Purchases of the EUR / USD pair can be made now with the target of 1.1299, as the pair completed closing above the level of 1.1216, and the Stop Loss order with a correction level of 100.0%.

Sales of the EUR / USD pair can be carried out with a target of 1.1120, and with a Stop Loss order above the level of 1.1216, if the pair closes below the Fibo level of 100.0%.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Analysis of the divergence of GBP / USD for March 11. The pound is preparing to break off the level of 1.2970

4h

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The pair GBP / USD on the 4-hour chart performed a fall to the correction level of 61.8% - 1.2969. Quoting quotes from this level will allow traders to count on a turn in favor of the British currency and some growth in the direction of the Fibo level of 76.4% - 1.3094. Closing the pair on March 11, below the level of 61.8%, will increase the chances of continuing falling towards the next correction level of 50.0% - 1.2869. There is no indicator of the emerging divergences today.

The Fibo grid is built on extremes from September 20, 2018, and January 3, 2019.

1h

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On the hourly chart, the pair completed under the correction level of 61.8% - 1.2993. As a result, the process of falling quotations can be continued in the direction of the next Fibo level of 76.4% - 1.2910. The closing of the pair above the correction level of 61.8% can be interpreted as a reversal in favor of the pound sterling and some growth in the direction of the correction level of 50.0% - 1.3062 is expected. Maturing divergences are not visible on the current chart.

The Fibo grid is built on extremes from February 14, 2019, and February 27, 2019.

Recommendations to traders:

Purchases of the GBP / USD pair can be made with the target of 1.3062 and a Stop Loss order below the level of 61.8% if the pair closes above 1.2993 (hourly chart).

Sales of the GBP / USD pair can be carried out with a target of 1.2910 and a Stop Loss order above the level of 61.8% if the pair closes below the level of 1.2969 (4-hour chart).

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

What to expect from EUR/USD pair in the light of the ECB's softening position as experts' opinions diverged?

After the Thursday meeting, the European Central Bank (ECB) announced its intention to keep rates at the same level at least until the end of this year and also mentioned launching of another long-term lending program for banks in September. This has caused serious disagreements among analysts about the future prospects of the EUR/USD pair.

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According to a number of experts, the softening of the position of the regulator leaves little to no chance for the euro to grow.

"The decisions voiced by the ECB at the last meeting may support the European economy, but one can hardly expect any visible effect from them this year," said by the representatives of ABN Amro Bank.

At the same time, they noted that a significant collapse of the single European currency should not be expected since most of the negative news on the euro has already been included in the quotes.

According to the bank's forecast, the EUR / USD pair can sink to the level of 1.10 by the end of the first half of the year.

Meanwhile, UBS experts believe that in the first half of 2019, the single currency against the dollar will remain within the established range, and in the second half, it will rise to the level of 1.20.

"The ECB, apparently, is trying to gain time for itself in order to properly" calibrate "its policy," analysts say.

They said that the improvement of economic indicators in the eurozone, as well as the resolution of trade conflicts including between the United States and the Middle Kingdom, will be the supporting factors for the euro.

"Such a development of events seems to us a more likely scenario than a further depreciation of the euro from current levels," as stated by UBS.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of AUD/USD for March 11, 2019

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Overview:

The AUD/USD pair is set above strong support at the level of 0.7046 which coincides with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level and 0.7168. This support has been rejected four times confirming the uptrend. Hence, the major support is seen at the level of 0.7046, because the trend is still showing strength above it. Accordingly, the pair is still in the uptrend in the area of 0.7046 and 0.7168. The AUD/USD pair is trading in the bullish trend from the last support line of 0.7112 towards the first resistance level of 0.7168 in order to test it. This is confirmed by the RSI indicator signaling that we are still in the bullish trending market. Now, the pair is likely to begin an ascending movement to the point of 0.7168 and further to the level of 0.7290. The level of 0.7389 will act as the major resistance and the double top is already set at the point of 0.7389. At the same time, if there is a breakout at the support levels of 0.7112 and 0.7046, this scenario may be invalidated. Overall, however, we still prefer the bullish scenario.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of USD/CHF for March 11, 2019

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Overview:

The USD/CHF pair continues to move downwards from the level of 1.0090, which represents the double top on the H1 chart. Last week, the pair dropped from the level of 1.0125 to the bottom around 1.0060. Today, the first resistance level is seen at 0.9980 followed by 1.0090, while daily support is seen at the levels of 0.9940 and 0.9891. According to the previous events, the USD/CHF pair is still trapping between the levels of 0.9980 and 0.9891. Hence, we expect a range of 89 pips in the coming hours. The first resistance stands at 0.9980, for that if the USD/CHF pair fails to break through the resistance level of 0.9980, the market will decline further to 0.9891. This would suggest a bearish market, because the RSI indicator is still in a negative area and does not show any trend-reversal signs. The pair is expected to drop lower towards at least 0.9891 in order to test the second support (0.9838). On the contrary, if a breakout takes place at the resistance level of 1.0155, this scenario may become invalidated.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP / USD plan for the European session on March 11. Pound buyers are going to close the gap

To open long positions on the GBP / USD pair, you need:

Today, pound buyers will try to block the next gap, which was formed at the opening of the Asian session but the main task for the bulls is to return and fix above the resistance of 1.3026, which is not so easy to do. If the pair continues to follow the downward trend, long positions can return only on a false breakdown around 1.2970, which may occur after the update of today's low or on a rebound from larger support of 1.2909.

To open short positions on the GBP / USD pair, you need:

The main purpose of the pound sellers for today will be the return and consolidation below the support level of 1.2970, which will lead to a new downward wave with a test of the minimum levels of 1.2909 and 1.2855, where I recommend taking profits. In case there is no pound after fixing below 1.2970to quick sales, it is best to postpone short positions and wait for an upward correction to the resistance of 1.3026, where the moving averages are also located. In the absence of sellers at this level, you can open short positions immediately to rebound from a high of 1.3082.

Found in the video review.

Indicator signals:

Moving averages

Trade is conducted below the 30-day and 50-day moving, which maintains the downward trend in the pound.

Bollinger bands

In the case of a decrease in the pound, support will be provided by the lower limit of the Bollinger Bands indicator around 1.2936. The upward correction will be limited to the upper limit in the area of 1.3068, from where you can watch pound sales.

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Description of indicators

MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow

MA (moving average) 30 days - green

MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9

Bollinger Bands 20

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EURUSD: Weak data on the US labor market is not a reason for concern

The euro ignored weak German data and continued its upward correction against the US dollar, despite warnings from the European Central Bank about a possible slowdown in economic growth at the beginning of this year.

Weak German data once again points to the fact that the EU economy is gradually slipping into recession.

According to the report of the Federal Bureau of Statistics of Germany, orders in the manufacturing sector of Germany declined, but the data for December were revised upwards. Thus, orders in the manufacturing sector in Germany in January fell by 2.6% compared with the previous month, while economists had expected an increase of 0.5%.

In December, orders rose by 0.6% compared with November, whereas earlier orders were reported to fall by 1.6% in December.

The current showed orders once again point to the continuation of a slowdown in the pace of activity in the flagship economy of the eurozone at the beginning of this year.

Already in the second half of the day, buyers of risky assets took advantage of the moment and continued to open long positions in the euro after the release of a weak report indicating that the number of non-US jobs increased in February this year, but turned out to be much worse than economists' forecasts.

According to the US Department of Labor, the number of non-agricultural jobs increased by only 20,000, while economists had expected an increase of more than 180,000. The unemployment rate reached a record low of 3.8% in February, compared to 4.0% in January. Economists had expected unemployment to be 3.9%.

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As for the technical picture of the EURUSD pair, further growth will be limited by a large resistance level in the region of 1.1260, from which sellers of risky assets will return to the market. However, a breakthrough of this range may lead to a reversal of the downward trend. A more likely scenario for the pair will be a rebound from the resistance of 1.1260 with an update of a minimum of 1.1200. Only from there will real buyers return to the market, betting on further euro growth in the short term.

The Canadian dollar rose against the US dollar after a good labor market report.

According to the data, the number of full-time jobs in Canada increased significantly in February and was higher than economists' forecasts. This would suggest that the deterioration in the prospects of the Canadian economy may be slightly smoother in the future.

According to a report by the National Bureau of Statistics of Canada, the number of jobs increased by 55,900 in February of this year, while economists had expected that the number of jobs would remain unchanged from January. In January, 66,800 new jobs were created in Canada.

The unemployment rate in February did not change, reaching 5.8%.

As for the technical picture of the USDCAD pair, there is a large resistance level in the area of 1.3465, from which you can count on active sales from the major players. Breakthrough and consolidation below support 1.3415, which could not be done on Friday, amid the fixation of short positions will lead to a further downward correction in the area of larger support 1.3375 and 1.3330.

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Simplified Wave Analysis. Overview of USD / JPY for the week of March 11

Large TF:

On the chart of the major Japanese yen since March, the rising wave algorithm is formed. By the end of the year, the first 2 parts (A + B) were fully completed.

Small TF:

The bull wave of January 3 completes the larger wave model. The wave develops in pulse type, with minimal recoils. Last week, the price adjusted for the last part of the trend. Achieved settlement zone is reached.

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Forecast and recommendations:

In the coming days, the completion of the flat mood of the movement is expected and the beginning of an active price increase. A brief puncture below the support area is possible but unlikely. It is recommended to pay attention to the instrument purchase signals.

Resistance zones:

- 113.30 / 113.80

Support areas:

- 111.20 / 110.70

Explanations for the figures: The simplified wave analysis uses waves consisting of 3 parts (A – B – C). On each of the considered scales of the graph, the last, incomplete wave is analyzed. Zones show calculated areas with the highest probability of reversal. The arrows indicate the wave marking by the method used by the author. The solid background shows the formed structure, the dotted - the expected movement.

Note: The wave algorithm does not take into account the duration of tool movements over time. To conduct a trade transaction, you need confirmation signals from the trading systems you use!

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Simplified Wave Analysis. Overview of EUR / USD for the week of March 11

Large TF:

On the weekly scale of the main euro pair chart from the beginning of last year, the bearish wave dominates. The model is not complete. The preliminary target zone is more than 5 figures below the current level.

Small TF:

From November, the price of the pair moves up, correcting the last trend section of the main wave. The first phase is completed in the structure; the middle part of the wave is nearing completion. The price has reached the upper boundary of the support zone. Beginning 2 days ago, the price rise claims to start the reversal design.

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Forecast and recommendations:

The preparation of the instrument for a course change is almost over. The period of price decline may be replaced by the growth phase already this week. The turnaround time often correlates with the outputs of the economic data block. Until the end of the month, a "bullish" attitude of transactions is recommended.

Resistance zones:

- 1.1390 / 1.1440

Support areas:

- 1.1230 / 1.1180

Explanations for the figures: The simplified wave analysis uses waves consisting of 3 parts (A – B – C). On each of the considered scales of the graph, the last, incomplete wave is analyzed. Zones show calculated areas with the highest probability of reversal. The arrows indicate the wave marking by the method used by the author. The solid background shows the formed structure, the dotted - the expected movement.

Note: The wave algorithm does not take into account the duration of tool movements over time. To conduct a trade transaction, you need confirmation signals from the trading systems you use!

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR / USD plan for the European session on March 11. Weak data on US labor market kept the demand for euro

To open long positions on EUR / USD pair, you need:

On Friday, a weak report on the number of people employed in the US non-farm sector led to a decline in the US dollar. Currently, euro buyers need to stay above the support of 1.1225. This will save the demand for EUR/USD pair, which will lead to an update of the maximum of 1.1259, here I recommend taking profits. The main task of the bulls is to test the resistance of 1.1288, which completely breaks the current downward trend formed last Thursday. If the pair goes below the support level of 1.1225, long positions can return to a rebound from the support level of 1.1200, where bulls will try to build the lower limit of the new ascending channel.

To open short positions on EUR / USD pair, you need:

and the formation of a false breakdown will be a direct sales signal in order to return to support 1.1225. The main task of the bears will be a breakthrough and consolidation below this level, which will lead to a larger decrease in EUR/USD pair along the trend to the area of 1.1200 and 1.1175 minimum, where I recommend taking profits. Under the scenario of a larger growth of the euro above 1.1259, you can sell on a rebound from the area of 1.1288.

Found in the video review.

Indicator signals:

Moving averages

Trade is conducted in the area of 30- and 50-day moving averages, indicating the further formation of an upward correction in the euro which is nearing its end.

Bollinger bands

Bollinger Bands indicator volatility has greatly decreased, which does not give signals on market entry.

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Description of indicators

MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow

MA (moving average) 30 days - green

MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9

Bollinger Bands 20

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Falling risk appetite pushes the dollar up

Extremely weak data on the number of new jobs in the United States frightened investors on Friday, causing a drop in the local stock market, which also had a strong negative impact on trading in Europe.

According to the data presented, the American economy received only 20,000 new jobs in the non-agricultural sector in February compared to the expected figure of 181,000 and the upward revision value of 311,000 in January. A similar minimum number of new jobs was recorded a year and a half ago.

How to explain such extremely negative data? It is difficult to say whether the error in the received data was not taken into account in full on the contrary, which will be known later. For now, not only can this news have a negative impact on the US dollar rate but also supports it along with other unhappy messages.

First, the ECB announced on Thursday following the meeting that it was renewing, albeit in a limited way, but still the program of financing TLTRO banks. Even at the press conference, Mario Draghi tried his best to reassure investors, telling them that one should not expect the beginning of quantitative easing. The markets regarded the new measures of the European regulator as a possible precursor to this event. The single currency paired with the US dollar fell by more than one figure at the moment, dragging along all the major currencies traded in a pair with the dollar.

The decision of the ECB clearly showed that it seriously perceives the risks of an economic downturn in the eurozone, burdened by the uncertainty of the consequences of Brexit. Of course, another negative pressure on the demand for risky assets was a message on Friday stating the date for the meeting between the leaders of the United States and China, said to be advertised by Donald Trump was not established. It seems that, as we have previously stated, the negotiations are extremely difficult and squeaky and what the result will become is not yet clear.

The data on exports, as well as imports and trade balance of China, published on Friday, turned out to be very bad and shows completely that the Chinese economy continues to slow down. Here, it is worth noting that against this background, as well as the actions of the ECB and the publication of weak values for employment in the States, a signal of a slowdown of the economic growth in America becomes clear. Naturally, in this situation, investors are beginning to get rid of risky assets and buy defensive ones, which has led to an increase in demand for US government bonds and currencies such as the Japanese yen, the Swiss franc and, of course, the US dollar.

Given the likelihood of continued negative risk attitudes, the dollar may continue its upward trend today, which may also intensify in the wake of the next negative news or rumors about events around the negotiation process between the US and China on trade.

Forecast of the day:

The EUR/USD pair is trading below 1.1250. If the pair does not grow above this mark, there is a probability of continuing its local decline first to 1.1175 and then to 1.1125.

The GBP/USD pair remains hostage to Brexit and the expectations of a recession in Europe. If the pair drops below 1.2960, there is a chance that it will continue falling to 1.2890.

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Trading Plan on 11.03.2019

Big Picture: Important headlines in the new Week

Last week, the EUR/USD rate gave a strong signal and breaks through the levels of 1.1230 and 1.1215, which signals for a downward trend.

Furthermore, the nonfarm US employment report in February came out very weak on Friday with a total of +20 K and this stopped the decline of the euro.

In the new week on March 12-14, the decision on Brexit will finally be made and most likely, Britain's withdrawal from the EU will be significantly postponed by date probably to 2020.

Additionally, the market turned their attention to the data on the US as there will be a report on retail sales on Monday.

Let me remind you that the United States has already switched to summer time and now the news and the opening of the US market an hour earlier at 12.30 London time and 13.30 London time.

On next Tuesday, there is the data on inflation, followed by orders for durable goods on Wednesday.

Positive for the market: the United States and China have advanced to conclude on the trade agreement. In particular, China is ready to make a commitment not to underestimate the yuan rate to improve export conditions, according to private information.

EUR / USD: Keep sales from the level of 1.1315.

In the event of an upward reversal in the euro, we buy during the breakdown of 1.1425.

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Wave analysis of GBP / USD for March 11. Couple is preparing to vote in parliament on Brexit

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Wave counting analysis:

On March 8, the GBP / USD pair dropped by another 70 bp, so the first wave of the downward trend continues its construction according to the plan. There are no prerequisites for completing this wave. The pair is making successful attempts to break through all the Fibonacci levels that it encounters on its way. Tomorrow, for the pound sterling, a very important moment will come when the British Parliament will vote for the Brexit agreement with the EU. The market reaction can be any. Everything will depend on how the market interprets the decision made by parliament. Thus, the rejection of the Theresa May agreement can even have a beneficial effect on the pound, although it also presents a negative point.

Shopping goals:

1.3348 - 0.0% Fibonacci

Sales targets:

1.2891 - 50.0% Fibonacci (senior Fibonacci grid)

1.2784 - 61.8% Fibonacci (senior Fibonacci grid)

General conclusions and trading recommendations:

The wave pattern still assumes the construction of a downward set of waves. Therefore, sales are now expedient with targets 1.2891 and 1.2784, which equates to 50.0% and 61.8% Fibonacci. Larger sales are recommended when receiving negative news from the UK about Brexit. In the near future, the construction of a correctional wave can begin. An unsuccessful attempt to break through one of the target levels will indicate the pair's readiness to execute this option.

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Trading recommendations for the GBPUSD currency pair - placement of trading orders (March 11)

By the end of the trading week, the pound / dollar currency pair showed a high volatility of 118 points, as a result of which it had a steady downward movement. From the point of view of technical analysis, we already have not just a correction from the level of 1.3300, but a full-fledged move, where the quote managed to reach the psychological level of 1.3000. The riddle of so many sustainable moves lies precisely in the information and news background, and now in detail. The ECB meeting on Thursday was the impetus for strengthening the dollar, where Mario Draghi, literally directly stated that he was resuming the quantitative easing program. Naturally, this kind of news just collapsed the euro, and because of the high correlation, the pound reached the bottom. The negative background does not stop there, Brexit is bursting from all sides, and British Prime Minister Theresa May lost the support of almost the entire cabinet of ministers (with the exception of two of her members) due to the crisis with the country's withdrawal from the EU. Members of the British government are in favor of May's resignation no later than July.

The current trading week expects to be extremely volatile. On the way, we have as many as three votes in the British Parliament on March 12,13, and 14, of course, regarding Brexit.

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Today, in terms of the economic calendar, we have data on retail sales in the States, where a slowdown is expected from 2.3% to 1.9%.

Further development

Analyzing the current trading schedule, we see that the quotation reached a psychological level of 1.3000, where the day was started from the gap, temporarily overcoming this level. Now, the gap is already closed, and the quotation is trying to go into a logical correction, but it should be understood that the negative background in Britain remains and there is no getting away from it, at the same time there are also enough short positions. Thus, I do not exclude that the current correction will change into a rollback - stagnation along the level of 1.3000, waiting for the upcoming voting.

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Based on the available data, it is possible to decompose a number of variations. Let's consider them:

- Positions for buy are considered in case of a clear fixation higher than 1.3045 with a perspective of 1.3070 (the first point).

- Positions for sale are considered in case of a clear price fixation lower than 1.2950.

Indicator Analysis

Analyzing a different sector of timeframes (TF ), we see that in the short term, interest has changed to ascending against the background of an attempt to work out the level of 1.3000. Meanwhile, intraday and mid-term prospects maintain a downward mood on the general background of the market.

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Weekly volatility / Measurement of volatility: Month; Quarter; Year

Measurement of volatility reflects the average daily fluctuation, with the calculation for the Month / Quarter / Year.

(March 11 was based on the time of publication of the article)

The current time volatility is 56 points. In case of stagnation along the psychological level, the volatility will remain within the daily average.

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Key levels

Zones of resistance: 1.3000 ** (1.3000 / 1.3050); 1.3130 *; 1,3200 *; 1.3300; 1.3440 **; 1.3580 *; 1.3700

Support areas: 1.3000 ** (1.3000 / 1.3050); 1.2920 *; 1.2770 (1.2720 / 1.2770) **; 1.2620; 1.2500 *; 1.2350 **.

* Periodic level

** Range Level

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EUR / USD: Fed chief raised the importance of tomorrow's release

The southern impulse of the euro-dollar pair, which was set by the outcome of the pigeon meeting of the ECB, finally declined: Buyers were able to keep the price within the 12th figure, showing corrective growth. However, this does not mean that there was a trend reversal. The eur/usd bears were simply disoriented by anomalously weak Nonfarms, as well as by the soft statements of the Fed's head. However, in general, the downward trend did not lost its relevance. Tomorrow's release of data on the growth of American inflation can give strength to the southern movement, especially if it comes out better than preliminary forecasts. Also, the mood of traders will be affected by Brexit, upon entering its crucial phase. In general, the current week promises to be boring and in with due respect, it might be decisive.

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Let me remind you that on Friday, Nonfarms turned out to be quite ambiguous. With a decrease in the unemployment rate to 3.8% (with a forecast of 3.9%), the growth rate of people employed in the non-agricultural sector fell to a record low of 20 thousand, while the growth forecast has a total of 185 thousand. In the private sector and the manufacturing sector, anomalously low growth was also recorded. And although such an extremely weak dynamic does not indicate a slowdown in the labor market as a whole (the seasonal picture was distorted by the seasonal adjustment and / or the teachers 'mass strike that affected the count of laid-off workers and tripled to work), the dollar halted its attack throughout the market, which includes its pair up with the euro.

The head of the Fed, who spoke on the CBS channel last night (that is, last night, North American time), was unable to restore the demand for greenbacks. In general, he did not say anything new, but he focused the market's attention on existing risks, while reminding that the rates are now at a neutral level. Jerome Powell, in his usual manner, tried to maneuver between soft statements and optimistic comments, thereby maintaining the appropriate balance. So, he again reiterated that the US economy is in excellent shape, and the main risks are related to external factors: the slowdown of the Chinese and world economy, as well as Brexit, and the decline in key macro indicators in Europe. According to him, the prevailing conditions increase global disinflation pressure, and the States are no exception.

Therefore, in this context, tomorrow's data on the growth of the US consumer price index plays a big role. Since November last year, the CPI has been at the zero level (on a monthly basis), while in February the minimum is expected, but still growth is up to 0.2%. On an annualized basis, the indicator should remain at the level of January, that is, at around 1.6%. If we talk about core inflation, excluding prices for food and energy, then stagnation is expected here: in monthly terms, the figure goes to 0.2% since October 2018. In annual terms - the figure goes at around 2.2% since last November. And in February, the indicator should grow to similar values. Any deviation from the forecasts will have a fairly strong impact on the dollar index.

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By and large, the Fed has stopped the process of tightening monetary policy for two reasons: firstly, these are external risks, and secondly - weak inflation. Therefore, if inflation rates come out of hibernation, then in the second half of this year, the Fed may return to raising rates.

It is also worth recalling here that, according to the American press, there is a serious split in the Fed camp. Representatives of the "hawkish" wing of the regulator believe that if the American economy continues to strengthen (albeit at a slow pace) against the background of a decrease in unemployment, then the interest rate should be gradually increased. Their opponents do not agree with such a formulation of the question: in their opinion, monetary policy should be tightened only if inflation exceeds the target 2% level, and not only exceeds, but also consolidates above this value.

That is why tomorrow's numbers may cause quite strong volatility among dollar pairs. If inflation shows signs of recovery, the eur/usd bears use this occasion to resume the offensive. Otherwise, the correction will continue.

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By and large, the 12th figure in this case is the "transshipment base". Sellers need to return to the 11th level, and the bulls - on the contrary, to overcome and gain a foothold above the 1.1300 mark. Tomorrow, it will help to understand in which direction the situation in the pair will swing. But today's price fluctuations should not be trusted: on the eve of a decisive vote in the British Parliament and on the eve of the release of the American CPI, the pair may show impulse jerks and false movements.

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Forecast for EUR / USD pair on March 11, 2019

On Friday, the American labor data came out excellent, taking into account the extraordinary situation on nonfarm, which showed an increase of only 20 thousand jobs against the expectations of 180 thousand. We consider 35 thousand strike participants + 20 thousand new workplaces + 11 thousand for revision and increases data in February (such a "synthetic" method is sometimes used in crisis situations), then we get 66 thousand but considerably not much, even a little. But a huge amendment was made on the unemployment rate as it fell from 4.0% to 3.8%, hence, low unemployment returned to April 2000. Moreover, with such unemployment and 50 thousand new jobs in the non-agricultural sector, these are even a very good indicator. At the same time, the average hourly wage increased by 0.4% against the expected 0.3% and be that as it may, investors are wise enough not to make hasty conclusions. We believe that the data in the negative plane has already won back. The number of new homes was 1.23 million in January compared to the forecast of 1.19 million and 1.04 million in December, which was revised down from 1.08 million).

The indications of technical indicators retain a downward trend on both the graphs under consideration. The Marlin oscillator is discharged upward from the oversold zone on the H4 chart. Now, it is ready to decline again. This time, economic indicators may become more straightforward; The forecast for retail sales is 0.0%in January and 0.4% for basic retail sales. Companies inventories for December are expected to grow by 0.6%. We are waiting for the decline of the euro to the support line of the price channel in the area 1.1158.

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Forecast for GBP / USD pair on March 11, 2019

The British pound lost 66 points against Friday's growth of the euro by 41 points, which confirmed the firmness of its intention to decline "until there is a good deal with the EU." However, it seems it will not. According to the British press, the cabinet with the exception of two people is against the deal as it stands. Tomorrow the parliament will once again vote on the draft Agreement, and if the vote fails, May will offer the option of withdrawal from the EU without a deal. On the daily chart, the price has moved below the balance line and the Marlin indicator shows a steady decline in the negative zone. On the H4 chart, there is a steady decline in all parameters. The immediate goal of the pound is to achieve support for the MACD line on a daily scale that coincides with the line of the price channel at 1.2940 with the immediate task to gain a foothold under this support. In this case, the price may target the downstream line of the price channel at 1.2530.

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Weak nonfarm ignored by the markets

The report on the US labor market, which investors assumed would provide information on the general direction of the upcoming Fed meeting, not only did not provide answers to the expected questions, but rather put new ones.

The number of new jobs in February at the level of 20 thousand was significantly less than the forecast of 180 thousand, which gives additional arguments to the pigeon wing of the FOMC. At the same time, an explanation was found quickly, and it seems that it completely satisfied the players - firstly, such failures sometimes happen, the main thing is that they are not confirmed next month, secondly, the weather is bad, and thirdly - the reason for the shutdown, and this means the factor is temporary and has already played.

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At the same time, a number of other parameters in the report are confidently positive - the unemployment rate fell from 4.0% to 3.8%, the average wage increased by 0.4%, and the annualized increase was 3.4%.

Investors preferred to consider the report neutral and even somewhat positive, which was reflected in the growth of the dollar index by the close of the week. At the March 20 meeting, the Fed will present updated macroeconomic forecasts, and the increased uncertainty will be interpreted by the markets in favor of the dollar rather than against it. If the conclusions of the markets are correct, then today's report on retail sales in January will show growth against December and will confirm confidence regarding strong consumer demand.

EURUSD

Industrial production in Germany fell by 0.8% in January. The result was noticeably worse than expectations. In addition, the trade balance also dropped significantly due to a fall in import growth rates and a simultaneous increase in imports by 1.5%.

Markets, however, almost did not react to the negative, judging that the data for January after the ECB meeting is not so relevant.

The euro is trying to push off from the 1.1175 low reached on March 7, and the reasons for this are quite convincing. First, there are still signs of a recovery in the eurozone economy, despite the long deceleration phase in 2018. And secondly, all the negative things that could happen have already happened - the ECB lowered its forecasts and announced the introduction of the TLTRO 3 program in September. Now, uncertainty will bring positive news for the euro rather than negative, which means there are not many reasons for further decline at this stage. EURUSD on Monday may try to return to resistance 1.1260 / 70 and then go to the side range in anticipation of new data.

GBPUSD

Tomorrow, the three-day marathon will start in the Parliament of Great Britain. By the end of which, as expected, a decision will be made to ask the EU to extend the action of Art. 50 of the Lisbon Treaty. Markets regard this outcome of three consecutive polls as the most likely, and the pound, which is significantly losing in value, already takes into account the expected results.

The reasons for the fall of the pound are clear. On the one hand, the possibility of the UK leaving the EU without a deal at all decreases. On the other, any extension leads to an increase in the period of uncertainty, which leads to a decrease in investment and freezing of long-term projects. The Bank of England in the last quarterly report has already expressed concern about the decline in the flow of investments. The Lloyds business barometer in February experienced a rather strong decline, directly indicating that the bottom was still far away.

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For the first time since the 2008 crisis, investment has been declining for four consecutive quarters, and there is no place for businesses to take positive guidance. The latest PMI surveys show that companies are preparing for a period of uncertainty, increasing inventories, which limits the growth potential in 2 and 3 quarters. Meanwhile, consumers in Britain are most pessimistic about the outlook of 12 months among all EU countries; forecasts for economic growth are revised downwards, which delays the beginning of a policy of normalization by the Bank of England to an uncertain future.

The main driver for the pound in the coming days is the ratio of supporters and opponents of May on the voting on March 12. If the gap is about 100 votes or less, then the markets will perceive this signal positively and the pound can win back some of the losses and try to return to level 1.3160. If May loses more than 230 votes, which is quite possible, the pound will go lower and demonstrate the ability to storm support for 1.2772.

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Forecast for USD / JPY pair on March 11, 2019

support of the nested line of the price channel and the signal line of the Marlin oscillator of the daily scale began to unfold higher without reaching the border in the area of a decline. On the four-hour chart, Marlin has turned upward and to restore growth, the price now needs to go over the resistance of the MACD line in the area of 111.65 on the four-hour chart. This level also corresponds to the minimum of March 4. Next, we are waiting for the growth of the resistance to the trend lines of price channels at the level of 113.15.

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Wave analysis of EUR / USD for March 11. Wave 5 could complete its construction

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Wave counting analysis:

On Friday, March 8, bidding ended for the pair EUR / USD by 40 bp increase. An ideal test of 127.2% on the Fibonacci grid was built on the size of wave 4, which led to the departure of quotations from the lows reached. This moment also suggests that the pair is ready to complete the construction of the downward wave 5, as well as the entire downward trend section. If this is true, then it will proceed from the current position of the Eurocurrency to build a minimum of the corrective part of the trend. However, there are doubts that wave 5 is completed. And thus, it will not take a more complex form. The news background for the pair remains neutral. Although after the "pigeon" mood of the representatives of the ECB, the euro may still remain under market pressure, which will complicate wave 5.

Sales targets:

1.1184 - 127.2% Fibonacci

1.1119 - 161.8% Fibonacci

Shopping goals:

1.1419 - 0.0% Fibonacci

General conclusions and trading recommendations:

The pair remains within the limits of the assumed wave 5. But there is also an option in which the construction of this wave is completed. Thus, I recommend waiting for the breakout level of 127.2% for Fibonacci and only after that to re-sell the pair with targets located near the estimated mark of 1.1119, which corresponds to 161.8% of Fibonacci. Otherwise, we expect the construction of a new uptrend.

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Pound on the verge of price turbulence

The British currency will go through a difficult week and the question of Brexit will again be the focus of attention, not only for the traders of the GBP/USD pair but also for the entire currency market as a whole. The demand for risky assets will weaken while interest in defensive instruments will increase again. However, Brexit's topic is too "insidious" to speak with confidence about the implementation of this or that scenario. Despite the high probability of postponing the exit of Britain from the EU, there are other scenarios that cannot be ruled out.

First of all, it is worth noting that Theresa May is still trying to convince parliamentarians with her characteristic perseverance that her version of the deal must be supported on March 12th. Its arguments are quite reasonable, given the unshakable stance of Brussels on amending the agreement. Additional negotiations lasted several months but the prime minister did not manage to get the situation off the ground.

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The European Union refuses to provide additional guarantees regarding the time frame of the backstop and this fact has become the main stumbling block between London and Brussels. However, according to Theresa May, who spoke on Friday in the British city of Grimsby, the postponement of Brexit will not solve the problem but can only aggravate the situation. Further transformations in this issue can distort the very essence of the "divorce" from the EU, she added. She also did not rule out that the prolongation of the negotiation process will lead to the cancellation of Brexit as such if the British deputies decide on a repeated referendum.

It is worth recalling that many Britons have revised their attitude to Brexit based on the latest sociological measurements. Therefore, a repeated referendum is likely to retain Britain as part of the European Union. Such a result will affect not only the positions of the current prime minister (Theresa May will most likely retire) but also the positions of the Conservative Party as a whole. The two-year negotiation process is associated with the British in a period of uncertainty and a slowdown in economic growth, as well as a decrease in the country's investment attractiveness. If in the end, Britain will return to zero point, the avalanche of disappointment of Brexit supporters will fall on the conservatives.

Tory representatives cannot fail to understand this, which is why the existing risk of a repeated referendum should worry not only May but also Tory representatives as a whole. This fact to some extent increases the chances of approval of the transaction on March 12, although the likelihood of this scenario is still too small. According to experts, the British deputies can already approve the agreement this week only in case, if Brussels at the last moment changes its position regarding the regime of the Irish border. We are talking about the notorious guarantees of a legal nature, which May has never been able to obtain from the Europeans.

Here, it is worth recalling that the pound strengthened for several hours to the borders of the 31st figure on Friday. Britain responded to rumors that the European Union is trying to find a way out of the impasse and allegedly even made a "new proposal" to London. This information was published in the American press, with reference to anonymous sources from the circle of negotiators. It says that the new proposals carry more concessions in comparison with those suggestions that Tusk and Juncker made earlier. However, a little later it became known that a compromise could not be found that way and the British refused to make concessions.

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It is worth noting that the journalists did not know what the essence of the new proposal was. However, this is not so important given the outcome of the Friday talks. But the fact that Brussels is looking for ways to compromise suggests that at the last moment, on the eve of March 12, Europeans can make more serious concessions regarding their previous proposals. A similar step was expected from them on the eve of a key vote on the deal in mid-January. However, Brussels sent only a spatial letter to the British Parliament, which contained only general phrases. According to some analysts, this time the European Union will take a more decisive step that can change the opinion of many parliamentarians.

Despite the existing options, the main scenario is the postponement of Brexit. The pound may respond positively to this fact, firstly this option excludes the onset of chaotic Brexit in March, and secondly, increases the chances of maintaining Britain in the EU. If the parties continue to stand on their own (and most likely they will), the deputies will return to the idea of a repeated referendum in order to avoid the implementation of the harsh scenario of the "divorce process".

In this way, "Price flights" of the pound this week are inevitable and the market will react both to the events preceding the voting and to the "after the fact" events. If we talk about the price range, we can only say about the level of support at 1.2750 mark, which was the bottom line of the Bollinger Bands indicator on the daily chart. The upper limit of the range is difficult to determine. If the events of this week will unfold in the positive note for the pound, the GBP/USD pair will jump at least to annual maximums of 1.3340 and much higher at least to the 35th figure. If by some miracle, the British parliamentarians will approve the proposed May deal.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Indicator analysis. Daily review for March 11, 2019 for the EUR / USD pair

Trend analysis (Fig. 1).

On Monday, the price may continue its upward movement. The first upper target 1.1270 is the pullback level of 38.2% (blue dashed line).

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Fig. 1 (daily schedule).

Comprehensive analysis:

- indicator analysis - up;

- Fibonacci levels - up;

- volumes - down;

- candlestick analysis - up;

- trend analysis - up;

- Bollinger lines - up;

- weekly schedule - up.

General conclusion:

On Monday, the price may continue its upward movement. The first upper target 1.1270 is the pullback level of 38.2% (blue dashed line).

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Indicator analysis. Daily review for March 11, 2019 for the pair GBP / USD

Trend analysis (Fig. 1).

On Monday, the downward movement will continue. The first lower target of 1.2895 is the pullback level of 50.0%. (blue dotted line).

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Fig. 1 (daily schedule).

Comprehensive analysis:

- indicator analysis - down;

- Fibonacci levels - down;

- volumes - down;

- candlestick analysis - up;

- trend analysis - down;

- Bollinger lines - down;

- weekly schedule - down.

General conclusion:

On Monday, the downward movement will continue. The first lower target of 1.2895 is the pullback level of 50.0%. (blue dotted line).

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Fractal analysis of major currency pairs on March 11

Dear colleagues.

For the currency pair Euro / Dollar, the price is in the correction and we expect clearance of a pronounced structure to the level of 1.1270. For the currency pair Pound / Dollar, a pronounced downward movement is expected after the breakdown of 1.2935 and we consider the upward movement as a correction. For the currency pair Dollar / Franc, the price is in the correction and we expect further upward movement after the breakdown of 1.0106. For the currency pair Dollar / Yen, the price forms the expressed initial conditions for the downward cycle of March 5. For the currency pair Euro / Yen, we mainly expect the development of the correction movement and the main development of the trend is expected after the breakdown of 124.25. For the currency pair Pound / Yen, we expect the downward movement after the breakdown of 144.00 and the potential is at the level of 142.94.

Forecast for March 11:

Analytical review of H1-scale currency pairs:

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For the currency pair Euro / Dollar, the key levels on the H1 scale are 1.1270, 1.1227, 1.1192, 1.1159, 1.1136, 1.1088 and 1.1043. We continue to monitor the downward structure of February 28. At the moment, the price is in the correction. The downward movement is possible after the breakdown of 1.1192. The first target is 1.1159. The short-term downward movement is expected in the area of 1.1159 - 1.1136. The breakdown of the latter value will allow expecting a movement towards a potential goal of 1.1088, upon reaching this level, we expect consolidation. The potential value for the bottom is considered the level of 1.1043, after reaching which we expect a rollback to the top.

The short-term upward movement is possible in the area of 1.1227 - 1.1270, and we expect to see potential initial conditions for the top to the level of 1.1270

The main trend is the downward cycle of February 28, the stage of correction.

Trading recommendations:

Buy 1.1230 Take profit: 1.1270

Buy Take profit:

Sell: 1.1192 Take profit: 1.1160

Sell: 1.1134 Take profit: 1.1090

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For the currency pair Pound / Dollar, the key levels on the H1 scale are 1.3109, 1.3068, 1.3029, 1.2967, 1.2935 and 1.2866. We continue to monitor the downward structure of February 27. The short-term downward movement is expected in the range of 1.2967 - 1.2935 and the breakdown of the latter value should be accompanied by a pronounced downward movement. The potential target is 1.2866, from this level, we expect a rollback to the top.

The short-term upward movement is expected in the area of 1.3029 - 1.3068 and the breakdown of the last value will lead to a deep correction. The goal is 1.3109 and this level is the key support for the downward structure of February 27.

The main trend is the downward structure of February 27.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.3030 Take profit: 1.3066

Buy: 1.3069 Take profit: 1.3109

Sell: 1.2967 Take profit: 1.2935

Sell: 1.2933 Take profit: 1.2868

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For the currency pair Dollar / Franc, the key levels on the H1 scale are 1.0180, 1.0141, 1.0124, 1.0106, 1.0084, 1.0058 and 1.0027. We continue to follow the upward cycle from February 28. At the moment, the price is in the correction. The movement upwards is expected after the breakdown of 1.0106. In this case, the target is 1.0124. The short-term upward movement is expected in the area of 1.0124 - 1.0141. The breakdown of the last value will allow expecting a movement towards a potential target of 1.0180, upon reaching this level, we expect a rollback downwards.

The short-term downward movement is possible in the area of 1.0084 - 1.0058 and the breakdown of the last value will have the formation of the initial conditions for the downward cycle. In this case, the goal is 1.0027.

The main trend is the upward cycle of February 28, the stage of correction.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.0106 Take profit: 1.0124

Buy: 1.0141 Take profit: 1.0180

Sell: 1.0056 Take profit: 1.0030

Sell: Take profit:

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For the currency pair Dollar / Yen, the key levels on the scale of H1 are 111.65, 111.37, 111.22, 110.90, 110.69, 110.53, 110.26 and 110.10. We follow the downward structure of March 5 and consider it as initial conditions. The downward movement is expected after the breakdown of 110.90. In this case, the target is 110.69 and in the area of 110.69 - 110.53 is the short-term downward movement, as well as consolidation. The breakdown of the level of 110.53 should be accompanied by a pronounced downward movement. The goal is 110.26. The potential value for the bottom is considered the level of 110.10, after reaching which we expect a departure to the correction.

The short-term upward movement is possible in the area of 111.22 - 111.37 and the breakdown of the latter value will lead to a prolonged correction. The goal is 111.65 and this level is the key support for the downward structure.

The main trend is the downward structure of March 5.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 111.22 Take profit: 111.35

Buy: 111.40 Take profit: 111.65

Sell: 110.90 Take profit: 110.69

Sell: 110.53 Take profit: 110.26

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For the currency pair Canadian Dollar / Dollar, the key levels on the H1 scale are 1.3595, 1.3555, 1.3485, 1.3458, 1.3414, 1.3386 and 1.3347. We continue to monitor the ascending structure of March 1. The movement upwards is expected after the price passes the range of 1.3458 - 1.3485. In this case, the target is 1.3555. The potential value for the top is considered the level of 1.3595, after reaching which we expect a departure to a correction.

The short-term downward movement is possible in the area of 1.3414 - 1.3386 and the breakdown of the latter value will lead to an in-depth correction. The target is 1.3347.

The main trend is the ascending cycle of March 1.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.3485 Take profit: 1.3555

Buy: 1.3557 Take profit: 1.3595

Sell: 1.3414 Take profit: 1.3386

Sell: 1.3384 Take profit: 1.3347

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For the currency pair, Australian Dollar / Dollar the key levels on the H1 scale are 0.7088, 0.7072, 0.7051, 0.7026, 0.7010, 0.6978 and 0.6951. We continue to follow the development of the downward cycle of February 27. The short-term downward movement is expected in the area of 0.7026 - 0.7010 and the breakdown of the latter value will lead to the movement to the level of 0.6978, near which we expect consolidation. The potential value for a descending structure is considered the level of 0.6951, upon reaching this level, we expect a rollback to the top.

The exit from correction is expected after the breakdown of 0.7051. The goal is 0.7072 and the range of 0.7072 - 0.7088. We expect the initial conditions for the ascending cycle.

The main trend is the downward cycle of February 27.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 0.7051 Take profit: 0.7070

Buy: 0.7072 Take profit: 0.7084

Sell: 0.7010 Take profit: 0.7980

Sell: 0.6976 Take profit: 0.6953

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For the currency pair Euro / Yen, the key levels on the H1 scale are 126.03, 125.63, 125.35, 125.11, 124.70, 124.44, 124.25 and 123.87. We are following the downward structure of March 1. At the moment, the price is in the correction. The downward movement is expected after the breakdown of the level of 124.65. In this case, the target is 124.44 and in the area of 124.44 - 124.25 is the price consolidation. The potential value for the bottom is considered the level of 123.87, after reaching which we expect a rollback to the top.

The short-term upward movement is possible in the area of 125.11 - 125.35 and the breakdown of the last value will lead to a prolonged correction. The goal is 125.63 and this level is the key support for the downward structure from March 1. Its breakdown will have to form the initial conditions for the upward cycle. In this case, the target is 126.03.

The main trend is the downward structure of March 1.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 125.11 Take profit: 125.35

Buy: 125.37 Take profit: 125.60

Sell: 124.65 Take profit: 124.45

Sell: 124.25 Take profit: 123.90

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For the currency pair Pound / Yen, the key levels on the H1 scale are 145.57, 145.03, 144.71, 144.00, 143.48 and 142.94. We continue to follow the development of the downward cycle from March 1. The continuation of the downward movement is expected after the breakdown of 144.00. In this case, the goal is 143.48 and consolidation is near this level. The potential value for the bottom is considered the level of 142.94, after reaching which we expect a rollback to the top.

The short-term uptrend is possible in the area of 144.71 - 145.03 and the breakdown of the latter value will lead to an in-depth correction. The target is 145.57 and this level is the key support for the downward structure.

The main trend is the downward cycle of March 1.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 144.71 Take profit: 145.03

Buy: 145.10 Take profit: 145.55

Sell: 144.00 Take profit: 143.55

Sell: 143.44 Take profit: 142.95

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com