The euro may be happy to grow but there are too many obstacles in its way

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Even despite the pessimistic notes that were present in the speech of the ECB President Mario Draghi following the regular meeting of the regulator on Wednesday, April 10, the common European currency managed to play about 100 points from the greenback and rise above $1.13 for the first time since March 26. Today, EUR/USD continues to trade over this mark.

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According to experts, the growth of EUR/USD was due to the postponement of Brexit, as well as the fact that the statistics for the eurozone published last week was better than the forecast. Thus, according to Eurostat, in February the volume of industrial production in the euro area decreased by 0.2% in monthly terms and by 0.3% in annual terms. Analysts expected that the first indicator will decrease by 0.6%, and the second – by 1%.

However, this may not be enough to maintain optimism regarding the euro.

First, the degree of trade tension between the United States and the Old World is rising. In response to Washington's threats to impose duties on European goods worth $11 billion, Brussels has already prepared a "list of retaliation" worth more than $12 billion.

Secondly, the business activity indices in the manufacturing sector of Germany and the currency bloc as a whole, which will be released this Thursday, can confirm that the industry is no longer a driver for the growth of European GDP. The mood of traders can also spoil the data on business optimism from ZEW and the level of inflation in the euro area, which will be released this week

Thus, in the case of worsening statistics, the "bears" on EUR/USD can revive again. It is assumed that if not immediately, then at least until the end of the month, the pair may go down, trying to test the April lows again in the 1.1180 area. However, before heading south, EUR/USD may reach the level of 1.1350.

It is expected that in the medium term, the pair will decline against the background of the increasing difference in the economic performance of the eurozone and the United States, as well as due to the varying degree of "softness" of the monetary policy of the Fed and the ECB.

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The Japanese currency depreciates against the background of positive on the markets

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On Monday, April 15, the national currency of Japan is trading near the annual minimum. The reasons for this, experts believe, are an improvement in the situation on world markets and a positive start to the corporate profits season in the USA. Recall that the yen is traditionally a safe asset that loses its position against the background of relative well-being in the global market.

At the moment, the USD/JPY rate in Asian trading reached a maximum of 112.10 and then dropped to 111.93. The Swiss franc, which is also considered an asset of the safe zone, has fallen in price against the European currency.

According to statistics released by Chinese authorities last Friday, the Celestial Empire faced a sharp increase in exports. At the same time, there was a significant increase in the volume of new bank loans in the country. The volume of imports of China remains weak, experts emphasize. Current statistics have strengthened investors in the opinion that the slowdown in the Chinese economy has already reached the worst point.

In general, there are positive sentiments in the global market. Last Friday, the US stock market showed strong growth. The reasons for this were the strong earnings report of the largest bank JPMorgan and the rise in prices for TheWalt Disney Co. by 11.5%. As a result, the S & P 500 broad market index has reached record levels in the past six months. This became a catalyst for the growth of positive sentiment in Asian markets, analysts believe.

According to estimates by a number of currency market experts, the potential for strengthening the US dollar is limited in this situation. According to Minori Uchida, a leading analyst at MUFG Bank, at the moment market players hold a large volume of long positions in US currency. According to the calculations of the US Futures Trading Commission, the balanced long position on the US dollar against the yen is at its highest level in the last three months.

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Fundamental Analysis of EURUSD for April 15, 2019

Despite the previous gains of the greenback, the euro has managed to gain a sustainable momentum recently which is expected to lead to the further bullish movement of the pair, even though the eurozone is being affected by the economic slowdown.

The eurozone is currently looking forward to setting the trade talks with the United States releasing the pressure of Brexit after the delay till October was agreed. The European Union gave the green light to start the trade negotiations with the US to agree on trade tariffs between them. Negotiations are anticipated to start quite soon, though certain tensions on both sides are still there. Thus, the US has already accused the EU of not acting in good faith and delaying the talks. Recently, European Commissioner Pierre Moscovici spoke about the eurozone's budget noting that it needs to be more developed and realistic. Even though the first step has been already done, a proper budget which can withstand economic shocks is currently the biggest need of the European economy.

Ahead of the Flash Services and Manufacturing PMI reports from France, Germany, and the eurozone, this week is expected to bring positive results that may lead to further gains in the coming days if the expectations are met.

On the USD side, the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers of the USA has increased by 0.4% in March on a seasonally adjusted basis after a rise of 0.2% in February. Notably, the all items index has increased by 1.9 percent before the seasonal adjustment over the last 12 months. In the FOMC minutes of the previous weeks, the FED discussed the options to end the reduction in the Federal Reserve's securities holdings by the end of September 2019. The Fed also expected the GDP to show a significant bounce in the second quarter of 2019 together with strong data from the Labor Market. Moreover, the further interest rate hike depending on the economic conditions was discussed as well. The unemployment rate was 3.8% in February, while the declining industrial production rebounded in the same month. The manufacturing output has also decreased during the last 2 months.

Today FOMC member Evans is going to speak about the further monetary policy and short-term interest rate decision. However, it is not likely to trigger any major changes in the US dollar's movement. The Empire State Manufacturing Index is expected to increase to 8.1 from the previous figure of 3.7. Ahead of Thursday's Retail Sales report which is expected to show a rise to 0.9% from the previous value of -0.2%, certain volatility and correction may take place, while meeting the expectation will lead to impulsive momentum on the greenback's side. Yet, it does not promise to be stable considering this week's economic reports.

Now, let us look at the technical view. The price is currently residing above the 1.1300 area with a daily close which indicates the further bullish sentiment in the coming days. It is likely to lead the price towards 1.1450 and then to 1.1500 resistance area. The bullish bias is expected to continue as long as the price remains above the 1.1200 area. On the other side, a breakout below 1.1300 with a daily close will slow the upward movement, but the sentiment will still be bullish.

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EUR/USD; GBP/USD; USD/JPY. Simplified wave analysis and forecast for April 15

EUR/USD

The direction of price movement in recent weeks sets the unfinished structure of the bearish wave of March 20. The wave adjusts the trend plot in the larger models, so the movement has a flat character.

Forecast:

The price is within the framework of a potential large-scale reversal. The structure of the ascending section does not show completion. Before the change of the course, a repeated price rise is expected, a short-term puncture of the upper border of the resistance zone is not excluded.

Recommendations:

Purchases carry a high degree of risk, even on small TF. It is recommended to refrain from trading transactions until clear reversal signals appear. Next, the sale of the pair will be promising. The support zone shows the lower limit of the expected daily volatility of the euro.

Resistance zone:

- 1.1320 / 1.1350

Support zone:

- 1.1260 / 1.1230

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GBP/USD

The unfinished short-term wave of the major of the British pound is counting from March 13. In recent weeks, the wave develops a flat correction, which has the form of a "downward pennant".

Forecast:

The flat price increase from April 5 is close to completion. Great chance to change the vector of international traffic already in the next sessions. The support zone indicates the expected lower limit of the daily variation of the pair.

Recommendations:

When buying, "pipsing" is possible not further than the lower border of the resistance zone. As part of the intersessional trading style, it is recommended to track the signal selling the instrument.

Resistance zone:

- 1.3120 / 1.3150

Support zone:

- 1.3000 / 1.2970

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USD/JPY

On the chart of the Japanese yen since March 25, an upward wave model is developing, which has a pronounced impulse form. The wave completes a large-scale wave structure that started earlier in the year.

Forecast:

From the zone of resistance achieved in the next session is expected to begin a price decline. The expected swing down is minimal, the character of the movement is likely to be flat. A repeated attempt to break up is more likely on the following day.

Recommendations:

The upcoming decline goes against the main trend, so sales are possible only on the smallest TF, "scalping" in a small lot. In the area of calculated support, it is recommended to track reversal signals to search for entry into long positions.

Resistance zone:

- 112.00 / 112.30

Support zone:

- 111.60 / 111.30

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Explanations for the figures: Waves in the simplified wave analysis consist of 3 parts (A – B – C). The last incomplete wave is analyzed. The last unfinished wave is analyzed. Zones show areas with the highest probability of reversal. The arrows indicate the wave marking according to the method used by the author, the solid background is the formed structure, the dotted ones are the expected movements.

Note: The wave algorithm does not take into account the duration of tool movements over time.

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GBP/USD. April 15th. The trading system "Regression Channels". Uncertainties on Brexit has become even more

4-hour timeframe

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Technical details:

The upper linear regression channel: direction - up.

The lower linear regression channel: direction - down.

The moving average (20; smoothed) - sideways.

CCI: 47.4474

The currency pair GBP/USD after it became known that Brexit will not take place in the next 6 months is stuck tightly between the levels of 1.3000 and 1.3120. Traders have not yet decided on a strategy for further trading, so the volatility of the instrument has greatly decreased, and there is no trend movement. At the moment, the pair has already worked out the level of 1.3123 three times and each time bounced off it. There have been no reports of Brexit over the past few days, and in the coming months, when there is simply no rush, the news density on this topic will be much lower than in recent months. Market participants can now only wait until the trend movement resumes, as trading in flat conditions with reduced volatility is risky and unprofitable. What can bring the pound out of the sidewall? First, any strong news on Brexit. Secondly, any events in the political sphere of the UK. Despite the fact that Brexit moved, the question "what's next?" stays in the air. It is clear to everyone that the Parliament will not accept the current version of the agreement. So, either a new agreement with the EU is needed, or radically new solutions to the problem, up to the second referendum. It is because of this variation of potential options for Brexit and remains unclear how it will end.

Nearest support levels:

S1 - 1.3062

S2 - 1.3031

S3 - 1.3000

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 - 1.3092

R2 - 1.3123

R3 - 1.3153

Trading recommendations:

The GBP/USD pair is located right next to the MA, and the market is still calm. Thus, formally now are relevant long positions with targets at 1.3123 and 1.3153, but it is recommended to retrace these goals very carefully and cautiously or not to reject at all.

Sell positions can be considered after the pair is fixed below the moving average line with targets at 1.3031 and 1.3000 and also very carefully and accurately or remain out of the market until the end of the flat.

In addition to the technical picture should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanations for illustrations:

The upper linear regression channel is the blue lines of the unidirectional movement.

The lower linear channel is the purple lines of the unidirectional movement.

CCI is the blue line in the indicator regression window.

The moving average (20; smoothed) is the blue line on the price chart.

Murray levels - multi-colored horizontal stripes.

Heiken Ashi is an indicator that colors bars in blue or purple.

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EUR/USD. April 15th. The trading system "Regression Channels". The euro continues to grow, but its potential is very limited

4-hour timeframe

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Technical details:

The upper linear regression channel: direction - down

The lower linear regression channel: direction - down.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - up.

CCI: 144.6547

On Monday, April 15, the currency pair EUR/USD retains the probability of continuing the upward movement, despite the fact that last week also ended with the growth of the pair, which was not provoked by fundamental events. It's just that traders have moved on to purchases that are quite logical from a technical point of view. Today, this situation may persist, since the calendar of macroeconomic events is empty, respectively, only technical factors will be available to traders. Since the last bars of the indicator Heiken Ashi colored in purple, the local movement is upward. Both linear regression channels continue to be directed downward, which signals a downward trend in the medium and long term. From our point of view, the key factor in the growth of the euro is the lack of overcoming the level of 1.1200, which, as we have repeatedly noted, is the lower boundary of a strong support area. The only question that is really important right now is up to which levels the upward movement will continue. Given all the same lack of fundamental support for the euro currency, the prospects for its growth look very vague. If you look at a longer-term timeframe, it becomes clear that in recent months, the pair cannot grow by more than 200-250 points.

Nearest support levels:

S1 - 1.1292

S2 - 1.1261

S3 - 1.1230

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 - 1.1322

R2 - 1.1353

R3 - 1.1383

Trading recommendations:

The EUR/USD currency pair has resumed its upward movement. Thus, it is now recommended to consider long positions with targets at 1.1322 and 1.1353. A new turn of the Heiken Ashi down indicates a new round of downward correction.

It is recommended to open the sell positions no earlier than reversing the pair below the moving average line with targets at 1.1230 and 1.1200. But the potential downward movement will still be limited to the level of 1.1200.

In addition to the technical picture should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanations for illustrations:

The upper linear regression channel is the blue lines of the unidirectional movement.

The lower linear regression channel is the violet lines of the unidirectional movement.

CCI - the blue line in the indicator window.

The moving average (20; smoothed) is the blue line on the price chart.

Murray levels - multi-colored horizontal stripes.

Heiken Ashi is an indicator that colors bars in blue or purple.

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Bitcoin analysis for April 15, 2019

BTC has been trading sideways at the price of $5.131. We are still expecting more downside on the BTC.

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According to the H4 time-frame, we found that bearish flag is in creation just after the BTC did break the support trendline, which is sign that potential distribution of orders may appear. Our advice is to watch for the breakout of the support trendline to confirm further downward movement. Support levels are seen at the price of $4.660 and at the price of $4.121.

Trading recommendation: We are bearish on the BTC from $5.130 with the targets at $4.660 and $4.121. Protective stop is placed at $5.460.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR / USD plan for the US session on April 15. Another unsuccessful attempt to grow the euro

To open long positions on EUR / USD pair, you need:

Buyers of the European currency failed to break through the resistance of 1.1319, which I paid attention to in the morning review. Only after a breakthrough of this range can we talk about the continuation of the upward trend in the area of highs at 1.1358 and 1.1388, where I recommend taking profits. In case that the downward correction of the EUR/USD pair moves further to the support area of 1.1294, it is best to consider buying EUR/USD from this range but provided that a false breakdown is formed. On the other hand, larger long positions are best to open on a rebound from the lows of 1.1265 and 1.1232.

To open short positions on EUR / USD pair, you need:

The failure to consolidate above the resistance of 1.1319 in the first half of the day led to the return of euro sellers to the market, whose first goal is to reduce to the support area of 1.1294. A repeated test of this level may lead to a larger sale of EUR / USD to the minima at the area of 1.1265 and 1.1232, where I recommend taking profits. If the EUR / USD growth scenario takes place above 1.1319, the divergence will continue to form on the MACD indicator, which allows short positions to be considered on a rebound from both highs at 1.1358 and 1.1388.

More in the video forecast for April 15

Indicator signals:

Moving averages

Trade is conducted in the region of 30 and 50 moving averages, which indicates a slowdown in the upward correction of the euro.

Bollinger bands

In the event of a decline in the euro in the afternoon, the support will be provided by the lower limit of the Bollinger Bands indicator around 1.1294. Against it will lead to a larger wave of euro decline.

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Description of indicators

MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow

MA (moving average) 30 days - green

MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9

Bollinger Bands 20

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EUR./USD analysis for April 15, 2019

EUR/USD has been trading upwards. The price tested the level of 1.1320. We are expecting more upside continuation on the EUR/USD.

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According to the Daily time-frame, we found that there is the breakout of the 4-day balance in the background and key resistance at the price of 1.1286, which is sign that buyers are in control and that there is demand for the EUR currency. Also, in the background, there is the fail test of the key low at 1.1176, which is another sign of the strength.

Trading recommendation: We are bullish on the EUR from 1.1300 with the targets at 1.1390 and 1.1420. Protective stop is placed at 1.1225.

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GBP/USD: plan for the American session on April 15. The pound remains in the wide side channel

To open long positions on GBP/USD you need:

Buyers of the pound managed to form a false breakout from the support level of 1.3085, which I paid attention to in my morning review. Now their task is to break and consolidate above the upper limit of the side channel 1.3130, which will allow to resume the uptrend and update new highs in the area of 1.3160 and 1.3195, where I recommend fixing the profit. In the scenario of a repeated decline of the pound in the afternoon, long positions are best to return to the rebound from the lower border of the channel in the area of 1.3052.

To open short positions on GBP/USD you need:

We see that the average border of the wide side channel, which I paid attention to in my morning review, is quite blurred, so it is best to open short positions on the pound after the test of the upper limit of 1.3130 or a rebound from the new weekly maximum in the area of 1.3160. The main goal of the sellers will be to reduce to the lower border of the channel to the area of 1.3052 and update the minimum in the area of 1.3021, where I recommend fixing the profit.

Indicator signals:

Moving Averages

Trading is conducted in the area of 30 and 50 moving averages, which indicates the lateral nature of the market.

Bollinger bands

In the scenario of the pound decline, the lower border of the Bollinger Bands indicator in the area of 1.3065 will act as support. The break of the upper border at 1.3115 may strengthen the demand for GBP/USD.

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Description of indicators

  • MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow
  • MA (moving average) 30 days - green
  • MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9
  • Bollinger Bands 20
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Fundamental Analysis of GBP/USD for 15th April, 2019

The EU leaders decided to delay Brexit deadline until October 31, 2019. This decision seems to have empowered GBP to gain sustainable momentum over USD.

Nevertheless, the effect of the Brexit extension is fading away. The UK-based businesses are currently prioritizing their cashflow as the UK-based firms are going to suffer economic shock in case of a hard-Brexit. Large businesses with a good amount of capital investment in the UK are trying to protect themselves against the risks by raising cash levels and bullet-proof balance sheets.

This week, the UK is due to release a series of macroeconomic data. Tomorrow the UK average earnings report will be posted. Average earnings including bonus is expected to inch up to 3.5% from the previous value of 3.4%. If the consensus comes true, GBP can benefit from it. Claimant Count Change is also expected to bring a good figure with a decrease to 17.3k from the previous increase to 27.0k. Unemployment Rate is likely to be unchanged at 3.9%.

Thus, the UK economy may gain certain momentum in a pause for a few months before the Brexit decision looms again before October 31, 2019. As other economies like the eurozone, the US, and Japan have to survive the global economic crisis, GBP may thrive well for a while because Brexit jitters have calmed down.

On the other hand, the US central bank is faithful to its dovish monetary policy while the US economy is underperforming in some sectors. This caused a collision between the Federal Reserve and President Trump's administration. After four rate hikes last year, The US regulator intends to keep its official funds rates between 2.25% to 2.50% as the incipient global crisis is creating uncertainty. Today FOMC member Charles Evans is going to speak about monetary policy and short-term interest rates. However, his speech is expected to have a neutral impact on USD. New York Empire State Manufacturing Index is expected to surge to 8.1 from the previous figure of 3.7. On Thursday, a Retail Sales report will be posted which is expected to rebound to 0.9% from the previous value of -0.2%. Amid such a busy economic calendar, the pair is set to trade with higher volatility and corrections. If the forecasts come true, USD will gain impulsive momentum.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price is currently trading above 1.3100 important price area from where it is expected to continue a climb with a target towards 1.3200 and later towards 1.3300 resistance area in the coming days. The price squeeze at the edge of 1.3100 was a pre-breakout structure which is currently validated after the intraday close above the area. As the price remains above 1.30 area with a daily close, the bullish bias is expected to continue.

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Analysis of Gold for April 15, 2019

Gold has been trading downwards. As we expected, the price tested the level of $1.283.20. The gold is approaching the key short-term support at the price of $1.281.00, selling at this stage looks risky.

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According to the H1 time-frame, we found that sellers are in control but that key support at the price of $1.281.20 is very close to current price, which is sign that selling looks risky. We found bullish divergence on the LBR oscillator in creation, which is sign that potential rally might happen. Supply line is holding for now but the upward breakout may confirm further rally. Resistance levels are seen at the price of $1.289.20 and $1.295.00. Key support is seen at the price of $1.281.20.

Trading recommendation: We closed our short position from $1.290.80 and we made 0.6% profit. We are neutral on the Gold now but we will observe key support at $1.281.20 to see how the price will reacti around that level.

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BITCOIN Analysis for April 15, 2019

Bitcoin is currently trapped in a trading range from $5,000 to $5,250. Recently, the price managed to gain certain bullish momentum after a drastic dip towards $5,000.

The price maintains the trend line which is holding the price as support from where the price is going to push higher with a target towards $5,250. Later if a daily close is seen above this level, then further upward pressure is expected. The price above the Kumo Cloud may fluctuate and correct itself as the volatility still persists. For clearly impulsive bullish pressure, a break above $5,250 is required. Holding above $5,000 indicates a further bullish bias with a target towards $5,500 and later towards $6,000 in the future.

SUPPORT: 4,800-80, 5,000

RESISTANCE: 5,250, 5,500

BIAS: BULLISH

MOMENTUM: VOLATILE

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Analysis of EUR/USD divergence for April 15. Two bearish divergences can send a pair down

4h

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As seen on the 4-hour chart, the EUR/USD pair performed a reversal in favor of the American currency and closed below the Fibo level of 50.0% (1.1313) after the formation of the bearish divergence at the CCI indicator. As a result, the process of falling quotations can be continued in the direction of the retracement level of 61.8% (1.1281). Closing the pair above the Fibo level of 50.0% will work in favor of the EU currency and the resumption of growth in the direction of the retracement level of 38.2% (1.1344).

The Fibo grid was built on extremums from March 7, 2019, and March 20, 2019.

Daily

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As seen on the 24-hour chart, the pair completed the close above the retracement level of 127.2% (1.1285), which now allows traders to expect a resumption of growth in the direction of the retracement level of 100.0% (1.1553). However, today the bearish divergence at the CCI indicator is already brewing. Its formation will allow us to expect a reversal in favor of the American dollar and a close below the Fibo level of 127.2%, which will allow us to expect a further decline in the direction of the retracement level of 161.8% (1.0941).

The Fibo grid was built on extremes from November 7, 2017, and February 16, 2018.

Trading advice:

Buy deals on EUR/USD pair can be opened with a target at 1.1344 if the pair consolidates above the Fibo level 50.0%. The stop loss order should be placed below the level of 1.1313.

Sell deals on EUR/USD pair can be opened with targets at 1.1281 and 1.1241 as the pair completed consolidation below the level of 50.0%. The stop loss order should be placed above the level of 1.1313.

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Investors interested in Silver

According to research by the Silver Institute and analytical company GFMS, most investors expressed interest in the white metal in 2018 and actively acquired it. Over the past three years, the demand for silver has grown by 4% to 1.03 billion ounces, experts say.

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In 2018, the cost of precious metals fell by an average of 7.8% and reached $15.71 per 1 ounce based on the report submitted by the Silver Institute and GFMS. Over the past year, white metal traded in the range of $13.97 to $17.52 per 1 ounce. In 2017, the average cost of silver was more stable being in the range of $17.05 for 1 ounce.

At the end of last year, the demand for silver coins and bars increased by 20% to 181.2 million ounces. At the same time, growth was observed mainly in relation to ingots and amounted to 53%. Experts also recorded an increase in demand for silver jewelry by 4% from 204.5 million to 212.5 million ounces.

A report by the Silver Institute and GFMS reported that silver production fell by 2% to 855.7 million ounces last year. Note that it was 876.9 million ounces in 2017. According to experts, the production of precious metals are reduced for the third year in a row. Thus, according to the results of 2018, the deficit of physical silver was 29.2 million ounces. Although in 2017, its surplus was recorded at 34.2 million ounces. Analysts explained that this has increased the interest of investors in the white metal.

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Technical analysis of USD/CAD for April 15, 2019

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Overview:

Pivot point: 1.3328.

The USD/CAD pair continues to move upwards from the level of 1.3228. Yesterday, the pair rose from the level of 1.3228 (the level of 1.3228 coincides with a ratio of 38.2% Fibonacci retracement) to a top around 1.3357. Today, the first support level is seen at 1.3228 followed by 1.3311, while daily resistance 1 is seen at 1.3377. According to the previous events, the USD/CAD pair is still moving between the levels of 1.3228 and 1.3402; for that we expect a range of 174 pips (1.3402 - 1.3228). On the one-hour chart, immediate resistance is seen at 1.3357, which coincides with the double top. Currently, the price is moving in a bullish channel. This is confirmed by the RSI indicator signaling that we are still in a bullish trending market. The price is still above the moving average (100), Therefore, if the trend is able to break out through the first resistance level of 1.3357, we should see the pair climbing towards the daily resistance at the levels of 1.3377 and 1.3402. It would also be wise to consider where to place stop loss; this should be set below the second support of 1.3282.

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for April 15, 2019

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Overview:

The USD/CHF pair continues moving in a bullish trend from the support levels of 0.9895 and 0.9948. Currently, the price is in an upward channel. This is confirmed by the RSI indicator signaling that the pair is still in a bullish trend. As the price is still above the moving average (100), immediate support is seen at 0.9948 coinciding with a golden ratio (23.6% of Fibonacci). Consequently, the first support is set at the level of 0.9948. So, the market is likely to show signs of a bullish trend around 0.9948. In other words, buy orders are recommended above the golden ratio (0.9948) with the first target at the level of 0.9983. Furthermore, if the trend is able to breakout through the first resistance level of 0.9983, we should see the pair climbing towards the double top (1.0036) to test it. It would also be wise to consider where to place a stop loss; this should be set below the second support of 0.9895.

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Dollar declined but will stay in the range (A corrective decline is expected in AUD/USD and USD/JPY pairs)

As a result of last week, the US dollar fell against the major currencies for the exception of traditional safe-haven currencies, particularly the Japanese yen and the Swiss franc.

Coordinated movements of major currencies in tandem with the US dollar are explained by the same investors' expectations for which the Fed's proposed actions regarding the monetary policy outlook are still a guide. This is a high probability that the regulator will continue to wait for the national economy, as well as globally.

Also, a significant role in easing the US dollar is played by postponing Brexit until October of this year. Although it retains a factor of uncertainty, it increases the hopes of supporters of maintaining Britain in the EU, which has a positive effect on the pound sterling rate.

One more weighty and negative reason for the dollar is the preservation of hopes that negotiations on trade between Washington and Beijing will be achieved. And again, although they are not expected to do something super positive, the mere fact of stopping the escalation of a trade conflict and the introduction of contractual trade into a certain course is already positive for financial markets and supports the demand for risky assets, which also contributes to the appreciation euro currencies and commodity group currencies.

In this regard, it is important to understand whether the further weakening of the dollar will continue. In our opinion, despite the statements by the Fed and many members of the Central Bank including the head Jerome Powell himself, who argued that the rates will not rise anymore, there is a possibility that inflationary pressure will increase. In any case, the inflation data published last week showed a sharp upward jump. Moreover, we can assume here that if it continues to rise then the Fed will have to raise rates at least once more this year. The Fed understands this and likely to pause while continuing to monitor the situation.

Assessing the overall picture, we believe that the lateral dynamics in the foreign exchange market will continue for some time.

Forecast of the day:

The AUD/USD pair was adjusted downward after reaching a local maximum. If it stays below the level of 0.7175 and drops below the level of 0.7160, there is a probability of continuing the correction to 0.7125.

The USD/JPY pair also had a downward correction as it was below the level of 112.00 and largely fell to 111.55, which will correspond to 23% Fibonacci retracement. Overcoming this mark will lead to a continuation of the fall to 111.30.

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Analysis of GBP/USD divergence for April 15. The pound is trading in a 100 point sideways range

4h

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As seen on the 4-hour chart, the GBP/USD pair performed another close above the Fibo level of 76.4% and then below it. As a result, traders can again expect some drop in quotations in the direction of the retracement level of 61.8% (1.2969). However, the movements in recent days are more like sideways, which is clearly seen on the hourly chart. Thus, the closing above/below the Fibo level of 76.4% is not a strong signal to buy or sell. There are no emerging divergences today.

The Fibo grid is built according to the extremums of September 20, 2018, and January 3, 2019.

1h

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As seen on the hourly chart, the pair quotes rebounded from the retracement level of 50.0% (1.3122), but the bullish divergence at the CCI indicator worked in favor of the British currency and consolidation above the Fibo level of 38.2% (1.3087). As a result, the pair can return to the retracement level of 50.0%. The new consolidation below the Fibo level of 38.2% can be interpreted as a reversal in favor of the American currency and we can expect a new drop in quotations in the direction of the retracement level of 23.6% (1.3046).

The Fibo grid is built according to the extremes of March 27, 2019, and March 29, 2019.

Trading recommendations:

Buy deals on GBP/USD pair can be opened with a target at 1.3122 and a stop loss order under the retracement level of 38.2% as the pair completed closing above the level of 1.3087 (hourly chart).

Sell deals on GBP/USD pair can be opened with the target at 1.3046 and a stop loss order above the level of 38.2% if the pair closes below the level of 1.3087 (hourly chart).

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The upward momentum in the pair EURUSD gradually subsides

Data on industrial production in the eurozone, which were slightly better than economists' forecasts, provided only temporary support for the euro as the overall situation in the eurozone leaves much to be desired. Recently, there has been more talk of assessing the side effects of negative interest rates on the eurozone banking system and less about raising interest rates at the end of this year. During its recent meeting, the European regulator only vaguely hinted at such an increase, and then subject to a number of conditions that are directly related to economic data.

As for Friday data on industrial production, according to the report, it fell in February by 0.2% compared with January and by 0.3% compared with February 2018. Despite weak indicators, the report led to an increase in the euro, as economists expected that industrial production in the eurozone would fall immediately by 0.6% and 1.2%, respectively. Production data for January were revised to 1.9% and -0.7%. All this once again confirms the concerns of the European Central Bank related to the weak economic growth of the region.

Data from the US Department of Commerce released in the second half of the day allowed the US dollar to strengthen its position. According to the report, the cost of foreign goods imported into the United States increased in March of this year, indicating that inflation is rising.

Thus, import prices in March 2019 increased by 0.6% compared with the previous month, while economists had expected a growth of 0.5%. The rise in prices in February compared with January was revised upwards to 1%.

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Already by the middle of the North American session, the upward potential for the US dollar was limited by the consumer assessment with regard to the US economy, which in April deteriorated amid the extinction of the stimulating effect of tax reform. Let me remind you that the data are advanced and preliminary.

According to the University of Michigan, the preliminary consumer sentiment index in April was 96.9 points versus 98.4 points in March. Economists had expected the index in April to be 98.0 points. The university noted that the decline is directly related to the extinction of the impact on consumer sentiment of tax reform.

As for the technical picture of the EURUSD pair, the chart shows the formation of the upper limit of the new downward channel, so it is very problematic to talk about the further growth of the euro. Only a confident consolidation above the resistance of 1.1320 will return an upward momentum to risky assets, which will lead to a test of new weekly highs around 1.1360 and 1.1390. The downward movement in euros, which can be formed at the beginning of this week, will be restrained by the levels of 1.1280 and 1.1255.

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EUR / USD Trading Plan 04/15/2019

The big picture: The market is starting a trend against the dollar. A meeting of the heads of the Central Bank and the IMF was held at the weekend. The head of the ECB Draghi was concerned about the pressure of US President Trump on the Fed as he mentioned.

A meeting of the heads of the Central Bank and the IMF was held at the weekend. The head of the ECB Draghi was concerned about the pressure of US President Trump on the Fed as he mentioned.

The issue of Fed policy will be developed in late Wednesday: The Fed will issue a Beige Book report. By the nature of the report, it will be clear what the Fed policy will be as it is already clear that the Fed's economy is slowing growth and the Fed will not raise rates for a long time.

EUR / USD: We keep buying from 1.12150 with the first target of 1.1450.

In the case of a complete turn, a downward sell from 1.1180 is suggested.

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Wave analysis of GBP / USD for April 15. The pair remains within the triangle.

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Wave counting analysis:

On April 12, the GBP / USD pair gained about 15 bp and reached the narrowest area of the tapering triangle. The activity on the instrument has decreased and it seems that even if the pair leaves the triangle, it will not grow. A pound sterling now needs a strong news background, which is still unknown when it will appear, since Brexit's transfer in itself for half a year means that there will be new negotiations between the EU government and the UK government. It is quite difficult to say what the parties will come to this time, and when new information will come to this account or whether it will come at all in the near future. Thus, it is best now to expect the pair to leave the limits of the triangle, which will give at least a hint at the direction of the pair in the coming days.

Purchase goals:

1.3350 - 100.0% Fibonacci

1.3454 - 127.2% Fibonacci

Sales targets:

1.2961 - 0.0% Fibonacci

General conclusions and trading recommendations:

Wave pattern still involves the construction of a downward trend. Markets, as before, cannot withdraw a pair from a triangle, therefore, trading takes place in a narrow price range. Accordingly, I recommend expecting the pair to exit the triangle. From the upper border of the triangle, a decline to the bottom can begin, which you can try to carefully work. However, the lot deal should be small.

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Wave analysis of EUR / USD for April 15. News background is zero and it can help the euro currency

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Wave counting analysis:

On Friday, April 12, bidding ended for the pair EUR / USD by 70 bp increase. Market activity has increased slightly, and the current wave counting remains unchanged. It involves the construction of an upward wave c, since at least wave 5 has not been updated. Thus, I still expect the tool to increase. The news background remains neutral, therefore, neither the euro nor the dollar now has additional support. Today, I do not expect news from America or the European Union. Thus, there are no visible reasons preventing the continuation of the construction of the ascending wave. I recommend to return to the pair sales after a successful break through attempt to the minimum of wave 5 or after receiving a signal of the end of the current wave c.

Sales targets:

1.1177 - 100.0% Fibonacci

Purchase goals:

1.1448 - 100.0% Fibonacci

1.1476 - 76.4% on the highest Fibonacci grid.

General conclusions and trading recommendations:

The pair presumably continues to build a wave. Thus, the trading strategy remains the same. I recommend buying a pair with targets located near the estimated levels of 1.1448 and 1.1476, which corresponds to 100.0% and 76.4% Fibonacci. The tool does not give reasons for sales.

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Burning forecast 04.15.2019 EURUSD

The Brexit theme fades into the background - the issue will be postponed until the end of October.

The main event of the week is the Fed's report on the state of the economy, the "Beige Book" on Wednesday.

We expect a soft report from the Fed and a continuation of the trend against the dollar paired with the euro and the pound.

We keep buying from 1.1250

We expect growth resistance in the area of 1.1350

And then further growth to 1.1450, a breakthrough to the top and rise to 1.2000

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China supported risk appetite, EURUSD continues to grow, and GBPUSD remains in the range

The consumer sentiment index from the University of Michigan fell in April to 96.9p against 98.4p in March. Despite the fact that the decline was stronger than the forecast, the index as a whole remains close to highs, moving in a sideways trend and does not give rise to panic. It is noted that the impact of tax reform on consumer confidence has almost disappeared. This factor is no longer perceived as the main criterion for economic growth and also has faded into the background.

The main factor, due to which the index continues to remain at a high level, is low inflation combined with an increase in nominal incomes. This leads to an increase in real incomes. The fall in real rates in the United States leads not only to increased business activity, but also to the growth of stock markets and risk appetite.

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The growth of risk appetite, in turn, overshadows concerns about the approach of a recession. Investors in the current environment still see an immediate threat.

Important macroeconomic publications in the US are not expected at the beginning of the week. Trade negotiations with China are reportedly proceeding quite constructively, which also reduces global risks. The threat of a full-fledged trade war between the US and the EU has not yet received a real filling. Reducing tensions will contribute to some weakening of the dollar and defensive assets.

EURUSD

Friday brought a number of positive news for the euro, which makes it possible to count on the EURUSD growth in the short term. China initiated and export growth in March was 14.2% higher than forecast. The trade balance went into a confident surplus. Expectations for global PMI growth improved. Any risk reduction leads to a decrease in the demand for the dollar as a defensive asset. Asian growth supports the euro more than the dollar.

On Tuesday, ZEW's German business sentiment index will be published. A similar Ifo index has already shown growth for the first time since August 2018. Since it is considered a leading indicator for GDP, expectations for the whole German economy are changing to more positive ones. The PMI index for the services sector has managed to remain in the growth zone and is showing recovery, so any growth in the manufacturing sector will serve as a powerful signal in favor of GDP growth.

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Obviously, the current positive growth is a temporary phenomenon. Most studies of analytical departments of large banks indicate a global problem that does not yet have a solution that satisfies everyone - the need to stimulate consumer activity in an environment where the possibilities of monetary methods have already been completely exhausted. Central banks cannot reduce rates, since they are already close to zero values. More so , they cannot expand lending, since balances have been inflated since QE. Therefore, either the recovery will be short-term, or non-traditional incentive methods will be found which might solve the problem of consumer activity.

Anyway, today, the euro is a favorite. The Friday maximum of 1.1223 will most likely be exceeded in the near future. EURUSD will try to leave above 1.1330 and gain a foothold for further expansion to the March peak of 1.1448.

GBPUSD

Due to the postponement of the Brexit date to October 31, the political pressure on the pound has decreased. And it turned out that investors had lost their reference points for the pound, disregarding the continuous saga of macroeconomic reference points for several months. The chances that the decision on the new date of Brexit will be made in May are small. The UK will generally pass through elections to the European Parliament. The fight between conservatives and laborers for control of parliament is also postponed. The pound is traded in a narrow range and sees no reason to exit it.

On Tuesday, a report on the labor market will be published. Expectations on the average wage growth rates are neutral. Respectively, there are no changes in forecasts for GDP and inflation, which, in turn, does not give a pound of guidelines. GBPUSD will continue to trade in the range, resistance 1.3120, support 1.3047.

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Indicator analysis. Daily review on April 15, 2019 for the pair GBP / USD

Trend analysis (Fig. 1).

On Monday, technical analysis demonstrates an upward movement. The first upper target of 1.3133 is the upper fractal.

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Fig. 1 (daily schedule).

Comprehensive analysis:

- indicator analysis - up;

- Fibonacci levels - up;

- volumes - up;

- candlestick analysis is neutral;

- trend analysis - up;

- Bollinger lines - up;

- weekly schedule - up.

General conclusion:

On Monday, technical analysis demonstrates an upward movement. The first upper target of 1.3133 is the upper fractal.

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Indicator analysis. Daily review on April 15, 2019 for the pair EUR / USD

Trend analysis (Fig. 1).

On Monday, the price may continue to move upwards. The first upper target of 1.1311 is the resistance line (red thin line). There is a probability of breaking through this line.

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Fig. 1 (daily schedule).

Comprehensive analysis:

- indicator analysis - up;

- Fibonacci levels - up;

- volumes - up;

- candlestick analysis - up;

- trend analysis - up;

- Bollinger lines - down;

- weekly schedule - up.

General conclusion:

On Monday, the price may continue to move upwards. The first upper target of 1.1311 is the resistance line (red thin line). There is a probability of breaking through this line with a subsequent target of 1.1325 - the upper fractal.

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Technical analysis for EURUSD for April 15, 2019

EURUSD is challenging important short-term support. Price has reached our first short-term bounce target area of 1.1310-1.1330. This is important resistance area. EURUSD has made an important low at 1.12 area and as long as price is above this level bulls could hope for something bigger for the upside.

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Red lines - bearish channel

Black line - major trend line resistance

Green rectangle - support area

EURUSD is above 1.13. Short-term trend remains bullish. Medium-term trend remains bearish as long as price is below the black downward sloping trend line. First important resistance is now at 1.1310-1.1330 area. Breaking above and out of the bearish channel would be an important win for bulls. But for medium-term trend to change to bullish price will need to move and stay above 1.14. So far price is making higher highs and higher lows. Next important high is at 1.1450 that bulls need to break. Breaking above it will confirm the medium-term trend change to bullish.The RSI has been diverging on a daily basis since last August. For this divergence sign to be confirmed as a reversal signal, bulls will need to break above 1.1450.

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GBP/USD: plan for the European session on April 15. The pound remains in the side channel amid uncertainty following the

To open long positions on GBP/USD you need:

I recall that during the vote, it was decided that the UK could remain in the EU until October 31, 2019, which will increase the pressure on the pound in the medium term. The overall picture for today has not changed compared with Friday. Buyers today need to form a false breakdown in the middle of the channel of 1.3086, which will be the first signal to buy based on a breakthrough and consolidation above the upper limit of 1.3130, which will lead to an update of the highs in the area of 1.3160 and 1.3195, where I recommend taking profits. In case the pound decreases below the level of 1.3086 in the first half of the day, it is better to consider new long positions to rebound from the lower border of the channel of 1.3048 or from the new low of 1.3021.

To open short positions on GBP/USD you need:

Today, bears will count on the formation of a false breakdown in the region of the upper boundary of the side channel of 1.3130, which will be the first signal to sell the pound. However, the main goal will be to return and consolidate below the middle of the channel of 1.3086, which will push GBP/USD to larger lows in the area of 1.3048 and 1.3021, where I recommend taking profits. When the growth scenario is above 1.3130 in the first half of the day, it is best to rely on selling GBP/USD from a high of 1.3160.

Indicator signals:

Moving averages

Trade is conducted in the region of 30 and 50 moving averages, which indicates the formation of a side channel.

Bollinger bands

A break of the upper border of the Bollinger Bands indicator near 1.3115 may increase the demand for the pound, while the downward correction will be limited to the lower border of the indicator near 1.3065.

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Description of indicators

  • MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow
  • MA (moving average) 30 days - green
  • MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9
  • Bollinger Bands 20
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Technical analysis for Gold for April 15, 2019

Gold price remains below $1,300 as bulls were unable last week to show signs of strength. The last line of defense for bulls is found at $1,290-80 support area and if this level is broken we could see another sell off in Gold that will bring price towards $1,250 or lower.

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Black line - important resistance trend line

Green rectangle - support area

Red rectangle - target area if support fails to hold

Red lines - triangle pattern target

Gold price is challenging important support levels. Another bounce towards the black trend line is not out of the question but bulls will need more than that. Bulls will need to break above the black trend line resistance now at $1,308 in order to hope for a bigger move higher. On the other hand bears seem to be in control of the trend, they just only need to break below support at $1,280-90. This will most probably push price towards $1,250 and maybe lower towards $1,225-15 area.

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EUR/USD: plan for the European session on April 15. Euro buyers may retreat

To open long positions on EURUSD you need:

Today, buyers of the European currency can retreat if they fail to quickly return to the resistance level of 1.1319 in the first half of the day. Only above this range will it be possible to talk about a continuation of the upward trend in the area of highs 1.1358 and 1.1388, where I recommend to lock in profits. In case of a re-downward correction to the support area of 1.1294, it is best to consider buying the EUR/USD from this range if a false breakout is formed, while larger long positions are best opened to rebound from lows of 1.1265 and 1.1232.

To open short positions on EURUSD you need:

The lack of important fundamental statistics today can help euro sellers. An unsuccessful consolidation above the resistance of 1.1319 in the first half of the day will be a signal to open short positions in order to drop to the support area of 1.1294, and a repeated test of this level could lead to a larger sale of EUR/USD to lows in the area of 1.1265 and 1.1232, where I recommend to take profits. With the EUR/USD growth scenario above 1.1319, a divergence can be formed on the MACD indicator, therefore, it is best to consider short positions for a rebound from the high of both 1.1358 and 1.1388.

Indicator signals:

Moving averages

Trade is conducted in the region of 30 and 50 moving averages, which indicates the lateral nature of the market.

Bollinger bands

Only a breakthrough of the upper limit of the Bollinger Bands indicator in the area of 1.1319 will lead to the resumption of an uptrend. Breaking the lower boundary of the indicator in the 1.1294 area will increase the pressure on the pair.

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Description of indicators

  • MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow
  • MA (moving average) 30 days - green
  • MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9
  • Bollinger Bands 20
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Control zones AUDUSD 04/15/19

The trading plan for the current week should take into account the fact that the pair tested the WCZ 0.7202-0.7189 medium-term target zone, which led to a halt in growth. The formation of a reversal pattern through the breakdown of one of the junior control zones will allow you to search for sales, the goal of which will be at least last week.

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The screenshot shows how the pair is trading within the accumulation zone, which is determined by a major player. To work within the range, you need to look for patterns at the boundaries of the zone.

An alternative model will be developed if the pair can consolidate above the level of 0.7202 in today's US session. This will allow us to talk about continued growth and will make it possible to buy the instrument again at any decrease. Today's decisive support is the WCZ 1/2 0.7126-0.7119. Until this zone is broken, working upward from the low of last week is the best strategy.

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Daily CZ - daily control zone. The area formed by important data from the futures market, which change several times a year.

Weekly CZ - weekly control zone. The zone formed by important marks of the futures market, which change several times a year.

Monthly CZ - monthly control zone. The zone, which is a reflection of the average volatility over the past year.

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China's ZEW, PMI and GDP: The EUR/USD pair in anticipation of major releases

Friday's sharp rise in the EUR/USD pair did not turn into a downward gap on Monday, and this fact increases the likelihood of a further upward trend. Bulls of the pair managed to stay above the resistance level of 1.1280 (the Bollinger Bands middle line on the daily chart) and now their next target is the 1.1320 mark (the lower boundary of the Kumo cloud, which coincides with the Kijun-sen line), having consolidated above which, buyers can expect to conquer in order the 14th figure.

However, such heights still look unattainable, given the weak dynamics of morning trading. Here it is worth recalling that this week, in fact, there are only four trading days, because on Friday, the trading floors of the USA, Canada, Australia, New Zealand and Europe (mostly) will be closed - the Catholic world celebrates "Good Friday". Therefore, in the near future, we may witness impulsive price movements.

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Compared with the previous two weeks, the current EUR/USD economic calendar looks quite obscure. Monday is de facto empty: the only interesting thing is that the representative of the US Federal Reserve Charles Evans will speak during the American session. As a rule, he takes a cautious, but not too "dovish" position. His comments can affect the dynamics of the pair only if his rhetoric will surprise the market with something, although the likelihood of this is rather small. In addition, today, traders might be particularly interested in the indicator of industrial production in the United States. This is the manufacturing index, which is calculated by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. In March, it fell slightly, reaching 3.6 points. This month, experts predict a small increase in the indicator - up to 8 points. But we have to admit that this indicator can affect the dynamics of the pair only with significant fluctuations.

On Tuesday, traders of the pair will track the ZEW Institute's data on Sentiment Index in the business environment in Germany and throughout the eurozone. The German indicator in March showed the strongest increase over the last year. And although the indicator remained in the negative area, traders drew attention to the dynamics of its growth. In addition, the increase in the index in the eurozone as a whole also exceeded expectations, updating its 10-month high. According to preliminary forecasts, positive dynamics will follow in April, both in Germany and in Europe as a whole. If this forecast is confirmed, the euro will get quite strong support, especially against the background of a half-empty economic calendar.

On Wednesday, all the attention of EUR/USD traders will be focused on the release of data on China's GDP growth. We will find out preliminary figures for the first quarter of this year. According to general estimates, the Chinese economy will again show signs of a slowdown: real GDP should reach 6.3% (6.4% in the fourth quarter), and GDP growth from the beginning of the year to the reporting quarter should be 6.3% (6.6%) - in the 4th quarter). In general, the financial world is ready for similar results, given the weak dynamics of indirect indicators.

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But if the real figures turn out to be lower than those stated, anti-risk sentiments may prevail in the foreign exchange market. The dollar will gain momentum in all pairs, and EUR/USD pair will not be an exception here. Along with GDP data, the Chinese authorities will publish data on the growth of industrial production. This indicator should please investors: according to preliminary forecasts, the indicator will grow from 5.3% to 5.6%. By the way, if China surprises with the growth of its economy, the appetite for risk, on the contrary, will intensify, exerting strong pressure on the US currency.

Thursday is interesting for traders with PMI indicators in the manufacturing sector of European countries. These indicators quite disappointed investors in March: both in Germany and in France and in the eurozone as a whole, a decline was recorded below the key 50th mark. In April, a low is expected, but still growth, which should neutralize the concerns of traders. The brighter the positive dynamics will be, the stronger the growth of the EUR/USD. During the US session on Thursday, US retail sales data will be published. In February, this figure was in the negative area (including excluding car sales) - the index fell to -0.2% and -0.4%, respectively. This week we will learn the March figures, which, according to preliminary forecasts, will be better than the February ones. Taking into account auto sales, the index should increase to 0.9%, excluding - to 0.7%.

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On the eve of a long weekend, these figures should raise interest in the dollar, although the "health" of the US currency will largely depend on the market's attitude to risk in general. In this context, the US-China trade negotiations play an important role. If the official representatives of Beijing or Washington again hint at the imminent signing of the deal, then the dollar will not be able to develop a full-scale offensive - even if the macroeconomic reports in the US contribute to this.

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Technical analysis of ETH/USD for 15/04/2019

Technical Market Overview:

The ETH/USD pair has bounced from the technical support at the level of $151 and is currently testing the local technical resistance at the level of $165.. Any violation of this level would lead to the test of the next technical resistance seen at the level of $170 and this might be the top for the unfolding wave b. Please notice, there is still one more wave to the downside missing, the wave c and only after this wave is completed, the uptrend should resume. The first target for the wave c is seen at the level of $151.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - $201

WR2 - $192

WR1 - $173

Weekly Pivot - $164

WS1 - $148

WS2 - $138

WS3 - $120

Trading Recommendations:

The best trading strategy for this market for daytraders is to trade with the longer-timeframe trend, which is now uptrend. This point of view is valid as long as the technical support at the level of $151 is broken.

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Technical analysis of BTC/USD for 15/04/2019

Technical Market Overview:

The BTC/USD pair has bounced from the technical support at the level of $4,928 and is currently testing the local technical resistance at the level of $5,164. Any violation of this level would lead to the test of the next technical resistance seen at the level of $5,290 and this might be the top for the unfolding wave (b). Please notice, there is still one more wave to the downside missing, the wave (c) and only after this wave is completed, the uptrend should resume.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - $5,898

WR2 - $5,642

WR1 - $5,340

Weekly Pivot - $5,108

WS1 - $4,789

WS2 - $4,547

WS3 - $4,228

Trading Recommendations:

The best trading strategy for this market for daytraders is to trade with the longer-timeframe trend, which is now uptrend. This point of view is valid as long as the technical support at the level of $4,795 is broken.

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Weekly review for the GBP/USD pair from April 15 to April 20, 2019

Trend analysis (Fig. 1).

In the coming week, the price will move up with the first target 1.3176 – a pullback level of 38.2% (blue dotted line).

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Fig. 2 (weekly schedule).

Comprehensive analysis:

- Indicator analysis - down;

- Fibonacci levels - up;

- Volumes - down;

- Candlestick analysis - up;

- Trend analysis - up;

- Bollinger lines - down;

- Monthly schedule - up.

The conclusion of a comprehensive analysis - a downward movement.

The overall result of the calculation of the GBP/USD currency pair candle on the weekly chart: the price of the week is likely to have an upward trend with the presence of the first lower shadow of the weekly white candle (Monday – down) and the presence of the second upper shadow (Friday – down).

In the coming week, the price will move up with the first target 1.3176 – a pullback level of 38.2% (blue dotted line).

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Weekly review for the EUR/USD pair from April 15 to April 20, 2019

When moving down, the price reached the support line of 1.1183 (blue bold line) and moved up last week, tested the resistance line (red bold line). In the coming week, the main question is whether the market will break through this line. Let's try to figure it out.

Trend analysis (Fig. 1).

In the coming week, the price will move up from the first target of the 21 EMA middle line - 1.1348 (black thin line).

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Fig. 2 (weekly schedule).

Comprehensive analysis:

- Indicator analysis - up;

- Fibonacci levels - neutral;

- Volumes - up;

- Candlestick analysis - up;

- Trend analysis - up;

- Bollinger lines - down;

- Monthly schedule - up.

The conclusion of the complex analysis - upward movement.

The total result of the calculation of the EUR/USD currency pair candle on a weekly schedule: the price of the week is likely to have an upward trend with the absence of the first lower shadow for the weekly white candle (Monday is up) and the absence of the second upper shadow (Friday is up).

When moving up, the first upper target 1.1348 - 21 medium EMA (black thin line).

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Technical analysis of GBP/USD for 15/04/2019

Technical Market Overview:

The GBP/USD pair is still unable to move in any meaningful direction and remains locked inside of very narrow zone located between the levels of 1.3122 - 1.3035. The situation has been developing into that horizontal consolidation since the 15th of March and now it is the whole month without the breakout. The key technical support zone is seen between the levels of 1.2938- 1.12960 and the key technical resistance zone is located between the levels of 1.3258 - 1.3305.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.3225

WR2 - 1.3177

WR1 - 1.3116

Weekly Pivot - 1.3067

WS1 - 1.3006

WS2 - 1.2961

WS3 - 1.2904

Trading Recommendations:

The best trading strategy for this market for daytraders is to trade the oversold/overbought conditions and support-resistance levels. The swing traders must stay patient and wait for a breakout.

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Forecast for GBP / JPY pair on April 15, 2019

GBP / JPY pair

On the weekly chart, the current price of the pair is higher than the balance line indicator and he marlin oscillator is in a strong growth position. The target for price growth is the MACD line of 150.05.

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On the daily chart, the price is higher than all indicator lines. The marlin oscillator goes to the territory of the growing trend towards the zone of positive numbers.

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On the H4 chart, the growth occurs according to the results of all the indicators. We are waiting for the price to be at 150.05.

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