Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for May 13, 2015

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The market was pushed lower after breaking below the major demand levels around 1.2100 and 1.2000 where historical bottoms were previously established back in July 2012 and June 2010.

The EUR/USD pair lost almost 1,500 pips since the beginning of 2015. Moreover, EUR/USD bears have already pushed the market slightly below the monthly demand level at 1.0550 (established on January 1997).

The previous monthly closure had a negative impact on the EUR/USD pair. However, April's monthly candlestick came as a bullish engulfing candle as depicted on the chart.

This probably hinders further bearish decline for some time. On the other hand, it enhances a bullish corrective movement towards 1.1500 and 1.1600 if a daily closure persists above the level of 1.1250.

In the long term, bearish breakdown of the monthly demand level of 1.0550 should not be excluded as the long-term breakout target is roughly projected towards the level of 0.9450.

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The obvious bearish breakout of the weekly demand level at 1.1100 allowed the market to fall dramatically shortly afterwards.

After such a long bearish rally (which started around the levels of 1.1300), bullish rejection was expressed at 1.0570 (monthly demand level).

The price zone between 1.1050 and 1.1150 failed to neutralize such strong bullish momentum.

A bullish continuation pattern with an ascending bottom was established around the level of 1.0650.

This applied a strong bullish pressure over the prominent supply levels at 1.1150 and 1.1240. Thus, bears failed to pause the ongoing bullish momentum of the EUR/USD pair.

The current daily candlestick closure should be monitored for further price analysis as daily persistence above the price level of 1.1250 enhances the bullish side of the market.

The nearest daily supply level comes to meet the EUR/USD pair around the price level of 1.1500 if enough bullish momentum is maintained above 1.1370.

On the other hand, failure to close above 1.1370 indicates further sideway movement without significant bullish advancement.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for GBP/USD for May 13, 2015

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Significant supply levels located around 1.5300 (weekly 38.2% Fibonacci level) and 1.5500 (weekly 50% Fibonacci level) have been providing significant supply over the GBP/USD pair for a few months.

Evident bullish recovery emerged from the area around 1.4550 where a significant bullish engulfing weekly candlestick was expressed.

As mentioned in the previous articles, persistence above the levels of 1.5000-1.5080 exposed the weekly supply zone of 1.5500-1.5550 (roughly corresponding to weekly 50% Fibonacci level), where significant bearish pressure was previously applied on February 22.

This week, the market has already pushed further above the weekly supply (1.5530). That is why, the current weekly candle closure should be monitored to determine the next destination of the pair.

Note that persistence above the weekly supply at 1.5530 hinders the ongoing bearish trend for some time.

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Sideways movement with slight bearish tendency had been expressed on the daily chart until the bullish breakout took place above 1.4970-1.5000 (via a Full-body bullish candlesticks).

The price zone between 1.5000 and 1.5050 (daily 38.2% and 50% Fibonacci levels) now constitutes the prominent demand level for the GBP/USD pair.

As anticipated, it offered a valid buy entry for retesting that took place on Tuesday last week. S/L can be advanced to 1.5350 to secure some profits now.

As already mentioned, daily candlestick closure above the weekly supply zone 1.5500-1.5530 exposed the next supply level located at 1.5730 (100% Fibonacci Expansion of the recent bullish swing).

The price zone of 1.5450-1.5500 constitutes a prominent DEMAND zone to be watched for valid intraday BUY entries for retesting.

On the other hand, the next SUPPLY level to meet the pair is located near the price level of 1.5950 (141.4% Fibonacci Expansion of the recent bullish swing) if enough bullish momentum is maintained above 1.5730.

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EUR/NZD : analysis for May 13, 2015

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Overview:

Recently, EUR/NZD has been trading downwards.The price tested the level of 1.5066 in a high volume. The short-term trend is neutral. Our target at 1.5155 (Fibonacci retracement 50%) has been reached and we can observe bearish corrective phase in progress. According to the daily time frame, we can observe weak demand in the background around the level of 1.5240, which caused the price to start moving downwards. Watch for potential buying opportunities on the dips (after bearish correction). The first support level is seen around 1.4930.

Fibonacci Pivot Points:

Resistance levels:

R1: 1.5300

R2: 1.5335

R3: 1.5400

Support levels:

S1: 1.5160

S2: 1.5120

S3: 1.5050

Trading recommendations: Be careful when selling EUR/NZD and watch for potential buying opportunities after retracement.


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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for May 13, 2015

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Overview:

  • The weekly pivot point for the EUR/USD pair has been set at the level of 1.1219. Consequently, the market has still been calling for upward because the price has set above the weekly pivot point at 1.1230 since yesterday. If the trend fails to close above the level of 1.1219, it will be a good opportunity to buy above the weekly pivot point with the first target at 1.1267 in order to test minor resistance, then it will be continued in uptrend towards 1.1371 (this level is likely to represent the weekly support 1). On the other hand, the stop loss should always be taken in account because it should never exceed your maximum exposure amounts. The best location to set your stop loss is seen below the double bottom at the level of 1.1176. We expect the trend to call for the bearish market at the level of 1.1371 or 1.1391 (double top) in the H1 chart. As a result, sell at the levels of 1.1371 or 1.1391 with the first target at 1.1219 in order to test the weekly pivot point. It might resume to 1.1143 later.
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Gold : analysis for May 13, 2015

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Overview:

Since our last analysis, gold has been trading upwards. As we expected, the price tested the level of $1,196.97 in a high volume. We can observe demand in a high volume and strong price action in the daily time frame,. The short-term trend is neutral. Our Fibonacci retracement 61.8% at the level of $1,181.00 was held successfully again. I am still expecting bullish movement, so my advice is to focus on buying positions. The first resistance level is seen around $1,200.00. I found corrective downward channel according to the H1 time frame and the price broke and re-tested that channel twice, which is a sign of potential bullish movement. We can also observe inverted head and shoulders formation. The first major resistance is around the level of $1,220.00.

Daily Fibonacci pivot points:

Resistance levels:

R1: 1,195.90

R2: 1,200.00

R3: 1,206.00

Support levels:

S1: 1,179.00

S2: 1,176.30

S3: 1,171.50

Trading recommendations: Be careful when selling gold at this stage and watch for potential buying opportunities (buy on dips).



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Technical analysis of USD/CAD for May 13, 2015

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Overview:

  • According to the previous events, the USD/CAD pair is still moving between the levels of 1.2043 and 1.1944. These levels represent minor resistance and a double bottom respectively in the H4 chart. In the long term, the strong resistance will be formed at the level of 1.2120 providing a clear signal for sell deals with the target seen at 1.1944 in order to test the double bottom and continue towards a new bottom at 1.1905. However, stop loss is to be placed above 1.2142. On the other hand, we have minor support to be formed around the level of 1.1944 in the shor term providing a clear signal for buy deals with the target seen at the levels of 1.1240 and 1.1120.

Observations:

  • The double top will be set at the level of 1.2150.
  • We expect a range of 78 pips today.
  • But it should be noted that the risk of 52 pips must make a profit of 78 pips.
  • Volatility: 97.58. Therefore, the market indicates lower volatility.
  • The value of 23.6% Fibonacci retracement levels is 1.2142 (it is confirming for the bullish market because this level is representing the double top in the same time frame).
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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for May 13, 2015

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Fundamental outlook:

USD/JPY is expected to trade in a lower range. The spotlight is on 12.30 GMT US April retail sales (forecast +0.2% on-month). USD/JPY is undermined by the broadly weaker dollar undertone (ICE spot dollar index last 94.56 versus 95.08 early Tuesday) amid lower US Treasury yields (10-year at 2.247% versus 2.272% late Monday), higher oil prices (Nymex crude settled up $1.50 at $60.75/bbl Tuesday), and fewer-than-expected 4.99 million US March jobs (versus forecast 5.1 million). USD/JPY is also weighed by the Japan exporter sales, decreased investor risk appetite as S&P 500 closed 0.29% lower at 2,099.12 overnight following a sharp selloff in European equities and government bonds. But USD sentiment is soothed by the larger-than-expected rise in US NFIB Index of Small Business Optimism to 96.9 in April from 95.2 in March (versus forecast 96.1), Fed's John Williams saying Tuesday he'd like the central bank to raise interest rates "a bit earlier" and repeating his view that a rise in rates is "on the table" at all Fed meetings now. He noted that the Fed will get two more months' worth of economic data before meeting in June, which will "paint a more complete" picture of the economy than currently exists. USD/JPY losses are also tempered by demand from Japan importers and ultra-loose Bank of Japan's monetary policy.

Technical comment:
The daily chart is mixed as the MACD and stochastics are in bullish mode, but five-day moving average is meandering sideways.

Trading recommendations:
The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as long as it remains below the pivot point. Short positions are recommended with the first target at 119.40. A break of that target will move the pair further downwards to 119. The pivot point stands at 120.30. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, it will move above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. According to that scenario, long positions are recommended with the first target at 120.50 and the second target at 120.75.

Resistance levels:
120.50
120.75
121

Support levels:
119.40
119
118.75

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for May 13, 2015

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Fundamental overview:
USD/CHF is expected to trade in a range. It is undermined by the broadly weaker dollar undertone (ICE spot dollar index last 94.56 versus 95.08 early Tuesday) amid lower US Treasury yields (10-year at 2.247% versus 2.272% late Monday) and higher oil prices (Nymex crude settled up $1.50 at $60.75/bbl Tuesday); fewer-than-expected 4.99 million US March job openings (versus forecast 5.1 million). But USD/CHF downside is limited by the negative Swiss interest rates and threat of Swiss National Bank CHF-selling intervention.

Technical comment:
The daily chart is mixed as the MACD is bearish, but stochastics is rising from the oversold levels.

Trading recommendations:
The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a wider range as long as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price holds above its pivot point, long positions are recommended with the first target at 0.9360 and the second target at 0.9415 . In the alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 0.9190. A break of this target is likely to push the pair further downwards, and one may expect the second target at 0.9135. The pivot point is at 0.9225.

Resistance levels:
0.9360
0.9415
0.9450
Support levels:
0.9190
0.9135
0.9065

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for May 13, 2015

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Fundamental overview:

NZD/USD is expected to consolidate with risks skewed higher after hitting a near-two-month low 0.7314 this morning. NZD/USD is volatile this morning following mixed market's reaction to RBNZ's Financial Stability Report. NZD/USD is supported by the broadly weaker dollar undertone and NZD-USD interest differential. But NZD/USD gains are tempered by the heightened expectations for interest rate cuts from Reserve Bank of New Zealand in coming months and kiwi sales on buoyant AUD/NZD cross, weak dairy prices, and reduced investor risk appetite.

Technical comment:
The daily chart is still negative-biased as the MACD and stochastics are bearish, although the latter is at oversold levels, five-day moving average is below 15-day moving average and is declining.

Trading recommendations:
The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a wider range as long as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price holds above its pivot point, long positions are recommended with the first target at 0.7460 and the second target at 0.75. In the alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 0.7340. A break of this target is likely to push the pair further downwards, and one may expect the second target at 0.73. The pivot point is at 0.7375.

Resistance Levels:
0.7460
0.75
0.7550

Support levels:
0.7340
0.73
0.7265

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Technical analysis of GBP/JPY for May 13, 2015

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Fundamental outlook:
GBP/JPY is expected to trade in a range. It is supported by demand from Japan importers. But GBP/JPY upside is limited by the Japan export sales and decreased investor risk appetite. Sterling sentiment is boosted by the stronger-than-expected 0.5% on-month, 0.7% on-year increase in the UK March industrial production (versus forecast +0.1% on-month, +0.1% on-year).

Technical comment:
The daily chart is mixed as the MACD is bullish, but stochastics is bearish at overbought levels.

Trading recommendations:
The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a wider range as long as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price holds above its pivot point, long positions are recommended with the first target at 189.20 and the second target at 189.75. In the alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 186.65. A break of this target is likely to push the pair further downwards, and one may expect the second target at 186. The pivot point is at 187.40.

Resistance levels:
189.20
189.75
190.35

Support levels:
186.65
186
185.25

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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for May 13, 2015

General overview for 13/05/2015 10:10 CET

As anticipated yesterday, the level of 135.36 provided the resistance for the price and the market reversed after making a high at the level of 135.20. The current structure might be labeled as leading diagonal pattern. But there is still one wave to the downside missing to complete the structure and this is why the intraday bias might shift to bearish now. The weekly pivot at the level of 134.33 and the intraday support at the level of 134.30 are the key levels to the downside: if the market violate this levels, more downside wave progression is to come.

Support/Resistance:

135.36 - Intraday Resistance

134.34 - Weekly Pivot

134.30 - Intraday Support

133.47 - Technical Support

Trading recommendations:

Daytraders should consider opening sell orders from current market levels with SL above the level of 135.36 and TP at the level of 134.30 with a possible downward extension to the level of 134.47.

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#USDX technical analysis for May 13, 2015

The Dollar index remains under pressure after back testing the downward sloping channel breakout level. This back test is a healthy pullback for the bullish scenario but we should see signs of strength for the Dollar soon. If these signs delay, we should expect another round of heavy selling that could push the index towards 93.75.

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Orange line = downward sloping channel upper boundary

The Dollar index trades around the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the latest rise and this is an important level as trend reversals are usually produced from this Fibonacci retracement. The Dollar index remains below the cloud resistance. The first resistance level is at 94.75 and the next one is at 95.25.

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The Dollar index continues to hold above the kijun-sen and above the 38% retracement jn a weekly basis . The trend remains bearish but the overall longer-term trend is bullish. The index is at the level that has high chances of an upward reversal. The trend reversal will be confirmed by a weekly close above 97.20. Bullish target remains above 101. Bearish target is is the 38% retracement if kijun-sen (yellow line) gets broken .

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Gold technical analysis for May 13, 2015

Gold continues to trade sideways as the price held above $1,170 yesterday and broke above $1,190. The price is trading around the short-term Ichimoku cloud and I turn to the triangle scenario now as it looks more probable.

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Red lines = triangle

Blue lines= expected price path

Gold price is back above the short-term Ichimoku cloud in the 4-hour chart and looks like the sideways price action continues. Upper triangle resistance is found at $1,210. Support is at $1,170. I believe that Gold price will take some more time to consolidate before breaking lower. Nevertheless we should keep a close eye on the $1,210-15 price level because if this gets broken, $1,222 will come with increased probability of a new higher high towards $1,250.

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The weekly chart remains bearish for the longer-term as price remains below the cloud resistance but in the short-term as price trades above the tenkan-sen, we could see another final bounce towards the kijun-sen and the lower cloud boundary. Critical support is at $1,130.

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Technical analysis of USD/CAD for May 13, 2015

General overview for 13/05/2015 09:20 CET

As anticipated yesterday, the main count indicating an incomplete wave (c) blue to the downside is still a valid one and another leg down had been made in overall corrective wave progression to the downside. Nevertheless, as long as the level of 1.1937 is not violated, there is a chance that alternate wave ii black is completed in nice, three sub-wave correction and only a breakout below the level of 1.1937 would invalidate this count. The most important resistance is the golden trend-line one as the market had been respecting this line many times. The true bullish trend resumption in larger time frame is possible only if this trend line gets broken in an impulsive way.

Support/Resistance:

1.1937 - Swing Low|Key Level|

1.1966 - WS1

1.1977 - Intraday Support

1.2044 - Intraday Resistance

1.2073 - Weekly Pivot

Trading recommendations:

Daytraders should consider opening sell orders from the current market levels with SL above the level of 1.2045 and TP at the level of 1.1977 with a possible downward extension to the level of 1.1937.

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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for May 13, 2015

Technical outlook and chart setups:

The EUR/JPY pair is preparing for a deeper correction until the price remains below 136.00. The pair is seen to be trading at the levels of 134.80/90 now. it is expected to drop lower. It is hence recommended to hold short positions with risk at 136.00. Immediate support is seen at 133.00 followed by 131.50, 129.00, and lower, while resistance is seen at 136.00/50, 137.00, and higher respectively. A 3 wave corrective drop is expected to bring the prices lower towards 130.00 and 129.00 respectively before a reversal.

Trading recommendations:

Remain short, stop at 136.00, a target is open.

Good luck!


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Technical analysis of GBP/CHF for May 13, 2015

Technical outlook and chart setups:

The GBP/CHF pair is still testing the trend-line resistance around 1.4450/60. The pair could reverse lower from the current levels proving that it remains in the sell zone of the resistance trend-line. It is hence recommended to remain short with risk around 1.4630/50. Immediate support is seen at 1.4300/30 followed by 1.4150, 1.4000, and lower, while resistance is seen at 1.4700 followed by 1.4800, 1.4950, and higher respectively. Bears should remain in control until prices stay broadly below the level of 1.4700.

Trading recommendations:

Remain short, stop at 1.4650, a target is open.

Good luck!


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Technical analysis of Silver for May 13, 2015

Technical outlook and chart setups:

Silver is trading above $16.50 now after it formed a base around the level of $16.10 yesterday. The metal needs to be pushed above $16.70 to confirm a bullish breakout. It is recommended to remain long for now with risk at $15.30. Immediate support is seen at $16.10/16.00 followed by $15.60, $15.30, and lower, while resistance is seen at $17.40/50, followed by $18.40/50 and higher respectively. The metal could test $16.40 before rallying on the higher side.

Trading recommendations:

Remain long, stop at $15.30, a target is open.

Good luck!


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Daily analysis of major pairs for May 13, 2015

EUR/USD: In spite of the effort of bears to break the support line at 1.1150 to the downside, the market remains bullish. Bulls are also fighting to frustrate the effort of bears and there is no chances for bullish bias as long as the price is above the aforementioned support line.

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USD/CHF: Owing to the recent easing of stamina in the EUR/USD pair, USD/CHF made some conspicuous bullish attempt but it was not able to break the resistance level at 0.9350 to the upside. For the bias to turn bullish the resistance levels at 0.9350 and 0.9400 must be broken to the upside, otherwise things would be bearish as long as the price stays at the resistance levels.

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GBP/USD: This week, the GBPUSD has moved upwards by 280 pips; the distribution territory at 1.5700 is under siege of bulls. If that distribution territory gets broken to the upside, the price would move towards other distribution territories at 1.5750 and 1.5800.

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USD/JPY: This is a ranging market with erratic price behavior. Swing and position traders should stay away from this market until there would be a serious movement in any direction. The market is only great for scalpers.

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EUR/JPY: In spite of the effort of the bears to push the price downwards, there is still a Bullish Confirmation Pattern in this market. The EMA 11 is above the EMA 56 and the RSI period 14 has not crossed the level of 50 to the downside. Any data from the eurozone could drive the market further upwards.

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Technical analysis of Gold for May 13, 2015

Technical outlook and chart setups:

Gold is seen to be trading around the level of $1,193.00 looking to push higher towards $1,215.00 at least. The metal was confined in a consolidation as depicted here and broke out higher yesterday. The next move is likely to be on the higher side towards $1,215.00/25.00 at least. It is recommended to remain long for now with risk at $1,165.00. Immediate support is seen at $1,180.00 followed by $1,168.00/70.00, $1,162.00, and lower, while resistance is seen at $1,215.00, followed by $1,225.00/35.00 and higher respectively.

Trading recommendations:

Remain long for now, stop at $1,165.00, a target is open.

Good luck!


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Technical analysis of USD/CAD for May 13, 2015

The pair has been making lower highs in the four-hour chart. The pair made multi-lows between 1.1978 and 1.1940. In case the price closes below 1.1940, we expect 1.1900, 1.1870, and even1.1800. The support is found at 1.1870 and 1.175020Dema and sma respectively.

We have been recommending selling with sl 1.2350 with the targets at 1.1870. The strong resistance is seen at 1.2350, so bears have the upper hand in the medium term. Intraday resistance is seen at 1.2025 and 1.2065. Strong momentum is expected above 1.2070 towards 1.2110 and 1.2140. Ahead of the Core retail sales and retail sales, USD is trading higher against CAD. The core retail sales were in the negative territory for 4 motnhs. Readings edvanced to the positive territory in March but did not beat expectations. Today, we can expect 1.1900 and 1.1870 on the downs side.

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Technical analysis of USDX & USD/JPY for May 13, 2015

USDX

The USD index is generating positive divergence signals in the hourly chart. The price has been making lower low in the four-hour chart.The USDX inched higher probably made a double bottom at 93.89. The index closed and was trading below hourly moving averages, but bullish crossover took place in teh four-hour chart. Technical indicators are providing mixed signals. Intraday resistance is seen at 94.75. Support is found at 93.90. The lower lows and lower highs still exist. The positional picture favors bears aiming for 93.25 and 93.00, which is our near-term target.

USD/JPY

The USD have been softening in the recent days. USD is trading higher against JPY. The recent USD rally against JPY, CAD, SGD, and CHF failed to support the bullish view in the near term. But only this pair has been sustaining in the structural bullish view. We have been recommending buying with sl 118.00 later moved the TSL at 118.50 100DEMA. The pair had probably made a double bottom at 118.30 and changed the direction. A daily close is seen above 121.00. Bulls will aim fresh new highs at 122.00 and 122.60. For an intraday view, we recommend buying above 120.30 with an immediate target at 120.50, a later targer at 120.80 and 121.00/121.10. Resistance is seen at 119.95 50Dsma. At the yesterday session, the pair rejected at 61.8 FE 120.30 fell and closed below 50Dsma. The price is likely to re-test 119.60 and 119.40 today before inching above 120.30. So, we might see a sub at 119.00.

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for May 13, 2015

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When the European market opens, economic data on ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts, German 10-y Bond Auction, Industrial Production m/m, Flash GDP q/q, Italian Prelim GDP q/q, French CPI m/m, French Prelim Non-Farm Payrolls q/q, German Final CPI m/m, German Prelim GDP q/q, and French Prelim GDP q/q are due.The US will publish reports on the 10-y Bond Auction, Crude Oil Inventories, Business Inventories m/m, Import Prices m/m, Retail Sales m/m, and Core Retail Sales m/m. So amid the reports, EUR/USD will move low to medium volatility during this day.


TODAY TECHNICAL LEVELS:

Breakout BUY Level: 1.1271.

Strong Resistance:1.1265.

Original Resistance: 1.1254.

Inner Sell Area: 1.1243.

Target Inner Area: 1.1217.

Inner Buy Area: 1.1191.

Original Support: 1.1180.

Strong Support: 1.1169.

Breakout SELL Level: 1.1163.



Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for May 13, 2015

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In Asia, Japan will release data on the Economy Watchers Sentiment, Bank Lending y/y, and Current Account. The US will release some economic data on 10-y Bond Auction, Crude Oil Inventories, Business Inventories m/m, Import Prices m/m, Retail Sales m/m, and Core Retail Sales m/m. So, there is a strong probability that USD/JPY will move with low to medium volatility during the day.


TODAY TECHNICAL LEVELS:

Resistance. 3: 120.43.

Resistance. 2: 120.19.

Resistance. 1: 119.96.

Support. 1: 119.67.

Support. 2: 119.44.

Support. 3: 119.20.



Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

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Technical analysis of EUR/CAD for May 13, 2015

TThe recent rise in oil prices put pressure on the cross. The cross has been rejected at 1.3765 couple of times. The support is found between 1.3400 and 1.3385. In the four hour chart, higher lows and higher highs formation still persist. The recent Greece saga adds more pressure on the euro.

The cross has been falling for 4 consecutive months. In case the cross fails to hold at 1.3385, it can re-test a low of 1.3024 made in April and even lower to 1.2950 and finally to 1.2840, a low made in January 2013, and 80.0 the fib level entire rise from 1.2122 to 1.5238. On the bullish front, bulls must close above 1.3765 to get back on track. As of now, the trading pattern is framed between 1.3385 and 1.3765. Any breakout is likely to provide further room to trade. Today is a data-heavy day on euro. French, Italian, and German prelim GDP q/q, French prelim non-farm payroll q/q and French CPI m/m, German final CPI m/m, Flash GDP q/q, Industrial production m/m, and ECB monetary policy meeting accounts are due today. Besides, UD retail and core retail sales data are expected today. We expect German GDP to be in the expansion side and Italy and France will be on stagnant. Previously, we recommended risky buy between 1.3500 and 1.3400 with sl 1.3385. We still have the same view. A daily close above 1.3765 will add big spikes to the system with targets at 1.3810, 1.4000, and 1.4080. The current minor uptrend is expected to be cancelled in case the price breaks below 1.3385. On the bullish front, two levels arrest the current minor rally 1.3765 200Wsma and 1.3780 50Msma. We expect 400pips on the higher side in case it is taken out on a closing basis.

Intraday support is found at 1.3450 100ema 1.3425, previous swing 1.3400 and the last hope remains at 1.3385 100Dsma. The cross touched the 1.3452 trading at 1.3474 within the Asian session.

Trade: positional buying between 1.3455 and 1.3410 with sl 1.3385 with targets at 1.3530, 1.3570, 1.3600, 1.3640, and 1.3680.

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Technical analysis of Gold for May 13, 2015

The yellow metal price has been consolidating in a tight range between 1215.00 and 1165.00, a low is made at 1169.70. The yellow metal concentrating on Greece saga. In case of Grexit, the metal is likely to edge higher. The soft USD supported the gold price as well.Greece made € 750 million repayment to the International Monetary Fund. Greece has to reach a reform deal with international creditors until June. Greek finance minister Yanis Varoufakis noted that the Greece's liquidity problem is a “terribly urgent issue". Greek exit from the eurozone will influence the economy.

At yesterday's session, the metal spiked to $1,196.80 (rejected at 61.8FE). The strong resistance zone is seen between $1,197.00 and $1,200.00. We recommend safe buying above $1,200.00 (like $1,206.50/$1,208.00). Intraday support is found at $1,186.50 and $1,185.00. We recommend selling below $1,185.00 with target at $1,183.00, $1,179.00, later $1,175.0 and $1,172.00. The strong support is found at $1,165.00. A daily close below $1,165.00 leads to $1,147.00 in the medium term. In the daily chart, lower lows and lower highs formation is developing. However, the double bottom was placed at $1,178.50 in the hourly chart, which is a higher low. It favors bulls in the near term. In case the price closes below $1,178.50, bears are likely to drive towards $1,176.00, $1,170.00, $1,168.00, and even $1,165.00/$1,163.00. The intra-week trading pattern is framed between $1,178.00 and $1,198.00/1200.00.

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for May 13, 2015

At yesterday's session, after the speech of FOMC member Williams, the euro pared half of intraday gains. He is confident for earlier rate hike with gradual increases. This statement ignites hope for rate hike in June. He said, "The decision to raise rates is actually three decisions: Not just when, but how quickly and how high. I see a safer course in a gradual increase, and that calls for starting a bit earlier". On the euro front, Greece has to reach a reform deal with international creditors until June. Greek finance minister Yanis Varoufakis noted that the Greece's liquidity problem is a “terribly urgent issue". Greek exit from the eurozone will influence the economy. According to the Moody's forecast, the euro area is expected to demonstrate an annual increase of 1.5% in 2016. Greece made € 750 million repayment to the International Monetary Fund.

Upcoming events: The euro macro calendar offered a data-heavy day. French, Italy and German prelim GDP q/q, French prelim non-farm pay roll q/q and French CPI m/m, German final CPI m/m, Flash GDP q/q, Industrial production m/m, and ECB monetary policy meeting accounts are due. Besides, UD retail and core retail sales data are due today. We expect German GDP to be in the expansion side and data from Italy and France are to be stagnant.

Technical view: The pair managed to trade above 100Dsma and was rejected at 100Dema at 1.1290 again. The pair has been facing strong resistance at 100Dema. It was rejected at 1.1290. It's not a good sign for bulls. The pair made a higher low of 1.1135 at yesterday's session. Immediate support is found at 1.1200 100Dsma. The pair will be weak in case the price goes below 1.1200 towards 1.1130 and 1.1110.0. Before the pair spiked towards 1.1278, it spent almost 24 hours at 1.1133. This consolidation period signed as a higher low. The selling pressure will be applied below 1.1100 towards 1.1060. The strong base is found between 1.1050 and 1.1030. A daily close is expected below 1.1030. The 20Dsma is found at 1.1030 and 50Dsma 1.0875. Resistance levels are seen at 1.1290 100Dema and 1.1330/1.1350.

Intraday view: The price has been hovering at 1.1200. The price is likely to re-test the level of 1.1130 before making another high. The multi-resistance level is seen at 1.1290. At the Asian session, the pair found the support at 100Dsma 1.1200 trading at 1.1218. The weakness persists below 1.1200 towards 1.1150 and 1.1135 initially. The bears are back on the track below 1.1110 rounded to 1.1100. The selling pressure is likely to be applied below 1.1110 towards 1.1070, 1.1050/1.1030. Intraday resistance is seen at 1.1225 and 1.1250. Strong momentum is expected above 1.1250 towards 1.1290 and 1.1330/1.1350. Amid the reports, we recommend buying above 1.1225 and safe buying above 1.1250 and selling below 1.1200 with targets at 1.1150 and 1.1135 on the bearish front.

Trade: Selling below 1.1200

Safe buying above 1.1250

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Technical analysis of GBP/USD for May 13, 2015

The UK industrial and manufacturing production beats the expectations. Total industrial production output is estimated to have increased by 0.1% between Q4 (Oct to Dec) 2014 and Q1 (Jan to Mar) 2015. Manufacturing, the largest component of production, is also estimated to have increased by 0.1% between these periods. Manufacturing output increased by 0.4% between February 2015 and March 2015. In 3 months to March 2015, production and manufacturing were 10.2% and 4.8% respectively below their printings for the pre-downturn GDP peak in Q1 (Jan to Mar) 2008.

Upcoming data: The UK macro calendar offered a data-heavy day .The major economic data, such as BOE governor Carney's speech, inflation report, and Claimant count change, due today. Besides, the US will publish retail and core retail data on Wednesday. The Committee's latest inflation rate and output projections will appear in the Inflation Report to be published at 10.30 a.m. within today's session.

Technical view: The cable moved above a 5-month high. A couple of facts have been supporting the pound in moving higher. The cable made a high at 1.5711 and closed at 1.5671. Today at the Asian session, the pound is trading at 1.5667 compared to 1.5671 Tuesday's closing against USD. In the four-hour chart, higher highs and higher lows formation still exists. The cable made a triple top at 1.5711 in the four-hour chart. Safe buying will trigger only above the triple top. We have been recommending buying above 1.5000. We expected 1.5650 not 1.5700+. We recommend fresh buying above 1.5715 (like 1.5830, 1.5860, 1.5900, and finally 1.5975). At yesterday's session, the cable managed to close above 200Dsma. In the daily chart, the cable managed to close all the moving averages at all-time intervals.

Intraday view: The cable made a triple top at 1.5711, fresh buying is recommended above 1.5715 and safe buying above 1.5730. At the Asian session, the cable found support at 1.5660 and resistance is seen at 1.5700 and 1.5711. Ahead of major data we expect wild moves today. The price moved 600 odd pips without correction. Today's inflation forecast is likely to drive the pair. Strong support is found at 1.5550. We expect profit booking at 1.5730 or 1.5800/1.5830 and re-test towards 1.5560 today. We expect a near-term top to be placed in this week. In the four-hour chart, negative divergence remains in play. We expect the cable to test the levels of 1.5550/1.5500.

Key support : 200Dsma 1.5630 200Dema 1.5540.

For an intraday view, we recommend selling below 1.5630 with targets at 1.5600 and 1.5560. On the bullish front, safe buying is above 1.5730 with targets at 1.5800 and 1.5830.

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To contact the author of this analysis, please email- joseph.wind@analytics.instaforex.com


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Daily analysis of USDX for May 13, 2015

We have already called for a possible recover from lows regarding this Index, but the USDX is already making a lower low pattern formation. This lower swing could cause a correction in the coming hours until the resistance zone of 95.00 at least. If the USDX makes a breakout at this level, it would be expected to rise to the level of 96.30.

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The short-term outlook is still bearish, as the USDX found strong dynamic resistance at the level of 94.70. Now, the Index is already supported in the current bearish bias by the 200 SMA on the H1 chart. In case of success, the bearish road could be extended until the support zone of 93.85. It should be noted that the bullish momentum is still possible.

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Daily chart's resistance levels: 95.00 / 96.30

Dailychart's support levels: 93.95 / 92.64

H1 chart's resistance levels: 94.70 / 95.34

H1 chart's support levels: 93.85 / 93.07



Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place sell (short) orders only if the USD Index breaks with a bearish candlestick; the support level is at 93.85, take profit is at 93.07, and stop loss is at 94.65.

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Daily analysis of GBP/USD for May 13, 2015

A bullish path is very strong on the GBP/USD daily chart because the pair is looking to rise until the resistance zone of 1.5745. We could expect some kind of sideways consolidation above the 200 SMA in this time frame as the pair is trading in favor of the overall trend. The MACD indicator is already supporting the current bullish bias.

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On the H1 chart, GBP/USD is already trading with a bullish pattern formation in progress as the pair is looking to reach new highs after a possible breakout at the resistance level of 1.5706 in the short term. Currently, we can observe some fractals in the current short-term bullish structure, which is already calling for more upside move.

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Daily chart's resistance levels: 1.5745 / 1.5907

Dailychart's support levels: 1.5543 / 1.5371

H1 chart's resistance levels: 1.5706 / 1.5794

H1 chart's support levels: 1.5597 / 1.5533



Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place buy (long) orders only if the GBP/USD pair breaks a bullish candlestick; the resistance level is at 1.5706, take profit is at 1.5794, and stop loss is at 1.5617.

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USD/CAD intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for May 12, 2015

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Overview:

Since bulls pushed the price further above the upper limit of both depicted bullish channels and the 79.6% Fibonacci level, the market looked quite overbought. That is why the market failed to hold above 1.2650 - 1.2680 (previous highs) resulting in the formation of a Triple-top pattern.

Successive lower highs were established within the depicted consolidation zone enhancing the bearish side of the market.

Support levels around 1.2350 and 1.2300 (79.6% Fibonacci level) were broken after providing significant support for several weeks on the daily and weekly charts.

Daily fixation below 1.2300 cleared the way for the USD/CAD pair towards the levels of 1.2000 and 1.1940 (projection target of the recent range breakout and the depicted weekly uptrend).

That is why we expected these price levels to provide significant signs of bullish price action. However, bearish breakout shouldn't be excluded this week as bearish pressure has originated this week (successive lower highs were expressed around the price zone of 1.2100-1.2150).

On the other hand, the price zone of 1.2330-1.2350 remains a significant intraday resistance zone for further retesting. This zone is likely to offer a low-risk sell entry while retesting.

Trading recommendations:

Risky traders could have taken a buy entry anywhere around the price level of 1.1950. T/P is projected at 1.2100, 1.2270 and 1.2320.

Note that breakdown of the recent low at 1.1940 invalidates this bullish scenario.

On the other hand, conservative traders should wait for a bullish pullback towards the price zone of 1.2300-1.2340 for a low-risk sell entry. T/P levels should be placed at 1.2220, 1.2100, and 1.1950 while S/L should be placed above 1.2250.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for GBP/USD for May 12, 2015

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Significant supply levels located around 1.5300 (weekly 38.2% Fibonacci level) and 1.5500 (weekly 50% Fibonacci level) have been providing significant supply over the GBP/USD pair for a few months.

Evident bullish recovery emerged from the area around 1.4550 where a significant bullish engulfing weekly candlestick was expressed.

As mentioned in the previous articles, persistence above the levels of 1.5000-1.5080 exposed the weekly supply zone of 1.5500-1.5550 (roughly corresponding to weekly 50% Fibonacci level), where significant bearish pressure was previously applied on February 22.

The current weekly candlestick closure should be monitored to determine the next destination of the pair.

As anticipated, persistence above the weekly supply at 1.5530 ends the ongoing bearish trend for a few weeks.

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Sideways movement with slight bearish tendency had been expressed on the daily chart until the bullish breakout took place above 1.4970-1.5000 (via a Full-body bullish candlesticks).

The price zone between 1.5000 and 1.5050 (daily 38.2% and 50% Fibonacci levels) now constitutes the prominent demand level for the GBP/USD pair.

As anticipated, it offered a valid buy entry for retesting that took place on Tuesday. S/L can be advanced to 1.5250 to secure some profits now.

As already mentioned, daily candlestick closure above the weekly supply zone 1.5500-1.5530 exposed the next supply level located at 1.5730 (100% Fibonacci Expansion of the recent bullish swing).

The next SUPPLY level to meet the pair is located near the price level of 1.5950 (141.4% Fibonacci Expansion of the recent bullish swing) if enough bullish momentum is maintained above 1.5740.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for May 12, 2015

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The market was pushed lower after breaking below the major demand levels around 1.2100 and 1.2000 where historical bottoms were previously established back in July 2012 and June 2010.

The EUR/USD pair lost almost 1,500 pips since the beginning of 2015. Moreover, EUR/USD bears have already pushed the market slightly below the monthly demand level at 1.0550 (established on January 1997).

The previous monthly closure had a negative impact on the EUR/USD pair. However, April's monthly candlestick came as a bullish engulfing candle as depicted on the chart.

This probably hinders further bearish decline for some time. On the other hand, it enhances a bullish corrective movement towards 1.1500 and 1.1600 if a daily closure persists above the level of 1.1250.

In the long term, bearish breakdown of the monthly demand level of 1.0550 should not be excluded as the long-term breakout target is roughly projected towards the level of 0.9450.

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The obvious bearish breakout of the weekly demand level at 1.1100 allowed the market to fall dramatically shortly afterwards.

After such a long bearish rally (which started around the levels of 1.1300), bullish rejection was expressed at 1.0570 (monthly demand level).

The price zone between 1.1050 and 1.1150 failed to neutralize the ongoing bullish momentum.

Moreover, a bullish continuation pattern with an ascending bottom was previously established around the level of 1.0650.

This applied a strong bullish pressure over the prominent supply levels at 1.1150 and 1.1240. Thus, bears failed to pause the ongoing bullish momentum of the EUR/USD pair.

The current daily candlestick closure should be monitored for further price analysis as daily persistence above the price levels of 1.1150 and 1.1250 enhances the bullish side of the market. This exposes the nearest daily supply level at 1.1500 for quick retesting.

On the other hand, the failure to close above 1.1250 indicates further sideway movement without significant bullish momentum.

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