Technical analysis of USD/JPY for July 13, 2017

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Our targets which we determined in yesterday's analysis have been hit. The pair is trading above its declining 50-period moving average, which is playing a support role. The RSI is above its neutrality level at 50. In addition, 113.10 is playing a key support role, which should limit the downside potential.

Alternatively, if the price moves in the opposite direction than predicted, a downside position is recommended above 113.10 with a target at 112.80.

Chart Explanation: The black line shows the pivot point. The current price above the pivot point indicates a bullish position while the price below the pivot point is a sign for a short position. The red lines show the support levels and the green line indicates the resistance level. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Strategy : BUY , Stop Loss: 114, Take Profit: 114.90

Resistance levels: 113.70, 113.95, and 114.20

Support levels: 112.80,112.60, and 112.40

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for July 13, 2017

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Our targets which we mentioned in yesterday's analysis have been hit. The pair posted a rebound from 0.9600 and broke above both 20-period and 50-period moving averages. The upward momentum is further reinforced by the rising 20-period and 50-period moving averages. The relative strength index is above its neutrality level at 50.

The U.S. dollar weakened against most major currencies as US Fed Chair Yellen offered no surprise on raising interest rates gradually.

Therefore, as long as 0.9640 holds on the downside, expect a further rise to 0.9695 and 0.9720 in extension.

Chart Explanation: The black line shows the pivot point; the present price above pivot point indicates the bullish position and below pivot points indicates the short position. The red lines show the support levels and the green line indicates the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Strategy: BUY, Stop Loss: 0.9640, Take Profit: 0.9695

Resistance levels: 0.9695, 0.9720, and 0.9775

Support levels: 0.9615, 0.9600, and 0.9575

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Technical analysis of GBP/JPY for July 13, 2017

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Our take profit target which we mentioned in yesterday's analysis has been hit. The pair signals further upside potential after its upward breakout of a bullish channel. The rising 20-period and 50-period moving averages are playing support roles and maintain the upside bias. The RSI is above its neutrality level at 50.

As long as 145.55 is seen as support, look for a further advance towards 146.80 and even 147.15.

Alternatively, if the price moves in the opposite direction as predicted, a short position is recommended below 145.55 with the target at 145.25.

Chart Explanation: the black line shows the pivot point. The price above pivot point indicates the bullish position and when it is below pivot points, it indicates a short position. The red lines show the support levels and the green line indicates the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Strategy: BUY, Stop Loss: 145.55, Take Profit: 146.80.

Resistance levels: 146.80, 147.15, and 147.50

Support levels: 145.25, 144.90, and 144.00

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for July 13, 2017

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As predicted in yesterday's analysis and in our signals, our both targets have been hit and NZD/USD crossed a previous month high of 0.7345 and posted a recent month high 0.7367. After touching this month high, the pair shed almost 40 points, but the downside should be limited. NZD/USD is still expected to continue its upside movement. Although the pair posted a pullback, it is still trading above the rising 50-period moving average, which plays a support role. The downside potential should be limited by the key support at 0.7270.

As long as this key level holds on the downside, look for a rebound to 0.7370 (today's high) and even to 0.7400 in extension.

Strategy: BUY Stop Loss: 0.7270 Take Profit: 0.7370

Chart Explanation: The black line shows the pivot point. Currently, the price is above the pivot point which indicates the bullish position. If it is below the pivot points, it indicates the short position. The red lines show the support levels and the green line indicates the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Resistance levels: 0.7370, 0.7400, and 0.7450

Support levels: 0.7240, 0.7215, and 0.7165

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Fundamental Analysis of EUR/AUD for July 13, 2017

EUR/AUD has been impulsively bearish recently after breaking below 1.4880 level. After the FED Chairman Yellen made comment about inflation data yesterday, AUD has gained well over all AUD based currency pairs. Today AUD MI Inflation Expectations report was posted which showed a rise to 4.4% from the previous value of 3.6% which resulted to further gains in the AUD side today. On the EUR side, today German Final CPI report was published with an unchanged actual figure at 0.2% and French Final CPI report was also published with an unchanged actual figure at 0.0%. The unchanged figures failed to provide sufficient push to the EUR to gain against AUD today which resulted to further bearish impulsive move in this pair today. As the pressure remains, AUD is the expected to gain further against EUR in the coming days.

Now let us look at the technical view, the price has recently broken below the 1.4880 yesterday and it was also retested as a resistance today. Currently the price is impulsively bearish which has already engulfed recent bullish price actions. As the price remains below 1.4880, further bearish move towards 1.4500 is expected in the coming days. The bearish bias is expected to continue until price breaks above 1.4900 with a daily close.

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NZD/USD Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for July 13, 2017

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Daily Outlook

The NZD/USD pair has been trending up within the depicted bullish channel since January 2016.

In November 2016, early signs of bullish weakness were expressed on the chart when the pair failed to record a new high above 0.7400.

A bearish breakout of the lower limit of the channel took place in December 2016.

In February 2017, the depicted short-term downtrend was initiated in the depicted supply zone (0.7310-0.7380).

However, a recent bullish breakout above the downtrend line took place on May 22. Since then, the market has been bullish as depicted on the chart.

The price zone of 0.7150-0.7230 (SUPPLY ZONE in confluence with 61.8% Fibonacci level) stood as a temporary resistance zone until a bullish breakout was expressed above 0.7230.

This resulted in a quick bullish advance towards the next supply zone around 0.7310-0.7380 where evident bearish rejection and a valid SELL opportunity can be offered if enough bearish rejection is expressed.

Currently, the NZD/USD pair remains trapped between the price levels of 0.7230 - 0.7310 until a breakout occurs in either direction.

Trade recommendations:

Risky traders can have a valid SELL entry at retesting of the price level of 0.7310. S/L should be placed above 0.7400.

Conservative traders can wait for a bearish closure below 0.7230 then 0.7150 (61.8% Fibo level) for a valid SELL position.

S/L should be placed above 0.7250 while T/P levels should be placed at 0.7050, 0.6970, and 0.6850.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for July 13, 2017

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Monthly Outlook

In January 2015, the EUR/USD pair moved below the major demand levels near 1.2100 (multiple previous bottoms set in July 2012 and June 2010). Hence, a long-term bearish target is projected toward 0.9450.

In March 2015, EUR/USD bears challenged the monthly demand level around 1.0500, which had been previously reached in August 1997.

In the longer term, the level of 0.9450 remains a projected target if any monthly candlestick achieves bearish closure below the depicted monthly demand level of 1.0500.

Currently, the EUR/USD pair remains trapped within the depicted consolidation range (1.0500-1.1300) until a breakout occurs in either direction.

Any bullish breakout above 1.1300 will probably liberate a quick bullish advance towards 1.1495 and 1.1600.

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Daily Outlook

In January 2017, the previous downtrend reversed when the Head and Shoulders pattern was established around 1.0500. Since then, evident bullish momentum has been expressed on the chart.

The next daily supply level for the EUR/USD pair is located between 1.1400-1.1520 where the price action should be watched for possible bearish rejection.

Recently, the price levels around 1.1280-1.1295 stood as an intraday resistance where recent bearish correction was initiated towards 1.1120.

Evident bullish rejection was expressed around 1.1120 where the current bullish movement towards 1.1400 was initiated.

As anticipated, the ongoing bullish momentum allowed the EUR/USD pair to pursue further advance towards 1.1415-1.1520 (Daily Supply-Zone) where a valid SELL entry can be offered if the current bearish rejection is maintained.

On the other hand, the price zone of 1.1260-1.1130 stands as a prominent DEMAND zone to be watched for bullish rejection.

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Elliott Wave Ananlysis of EUR/NZD for July 13, 2017

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Wave summary:

The break back below support at 1.5712 has taken us by surprise. Short term, we might even see a continuation slightly below 1.5509 before red wave ii is complete and a new impulsive rally to above 1.5887 will be seen in red wave iii.

Only a break above minor resistance at 1.5737 confirms, that red wave iii is developing.

Trading recommendation:

Our stop at 1.5600 was hit for a loss of 45 pips. We will re-buy EUR at 1.5510 or upon a break above 1.5737.

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EUR/USD analysis for July 13, 2017

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Recently, the EUR/USD pair has been trading downwards. The price tested the level of 1.1385. Anyway, according to the 30M time frame, I found fake breakout of yesterday's low at the price of 1.1390. My advice is to watch for potential buying opportunities. The RSI is oversold, which is another sign of strength. The upward target Is set at the price of 1.1455.

Resistance levels:

R1: 1.1445

R2: 1.1455

R3: 1.1470

Support levels:

S1: 1.1422

S2: 1.1410

S3: 1.1400

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential buying opportunities.

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Elliott Wave Ananlysis of EUR/JPY for July 13, 2017

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Wave summary:

After topping at 130.77 a nice decline towards 125.82 is being seen. Minor resistance is now seen at 129.66, which we expect will be able to cap the upside for the expected decline towards 125.82.

Trading recommendation:

We sold EUR at 129.85 and will lower our stop to 129.70. If you are not short EUR yet, then sell here and use the same stop.

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USD/JPY analysis for July 13, 2017

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Recently, the USD/JPY pair has been trading downwards. As I expected, the price tested the level of 112.85 (first target). According to the 30M time frame, I found broken rising wedge in the background. My advice is to watch for potential selling opportunities. Watch for a potential breakout of support at 112.85 to confirm further downward movement. Next downward target is set at the price of 111.90.

Resistance levels:

R1: 113.45

R2: 113.80

R3: 114.10

Support levels:

S1: 112.75

S2: 112.50

S3: 112.10

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential selling opportunities.

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Global macro overview for 13/07/2017

Global macro overview for 13/07/2017:

The Bank of Canada decided to hike the interest rate from 0.5% to 0.75% as expected. The Bank of Canada made the first rate hike since 2010, but more importantly, it did not close the road for further tightening. In the BoC Rate Statement, we can read, that a significant amount of economic stagnation has been absorbed by the economy and the output gap is expected to close sooner than expected (by the end of 2017 compared with previous estimates of during the first half of 2018). The 2018 GDP forecast was revised up to 2.0% from 1.9% after expected growth of 2.8% for this year from the previous estimate of 2.6%. The BoŠ” inflation expectations remain below target, but the bank expects this to be due mostly to temporary factors such as competition in food prices and electricity rebates and still sees the inflation to hit 2.0% by the end of 2018. As usual, any other interest rate adjustments will be depending on incoming economic data from Canadain and world economy.

BoC President Stephen Poloz actively avoided answering whether the increase was just a reversal of the anti-crisis measures of last year or the beginning of a new monetary cycle. Inability to give the straight answer was treated by global investors as another hawkish clue, so the Canadian Dollar started to appreciate massively across the board as the market was trying to price in another hike by the end of the year and possibly further hikes in 2018. As a result, USD/CAD retreated to fresh 10-month lows below 1.2850 level.

Let's now take a look at the USD/CAD technical picture on the H4 time frame. The market is trading in oversold conditions with a visible bullish divergence at this timeframe. The next important technical support is at the level of 1.2653 and the next technical resistance is seen at the level of 1.2858.

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Daily analysis of GBP/JPY for July 12, 2017

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Daily analysis of GBP/JPY for July 12, 2017

Global macro overview for 13/07/2017

Global macro overview for 13/07/2017:

During her latest speech in the front of US Congress, the Federal Reserve Chairperson Janet Yellen was not hawkish enough to move the US Dollar upward. Yellen has nothing extraordinary to say and her dovish point of view that she held since the June FOMC meeting was reiterated again. The main focus of Yellen speech was on inflation, which according to her is below the target, and has recently dropped, so its future developments remain uncertain. This articulated "uncertainty" hit the US Dollar most strongly, as it is part of the recent hesitation of FED members' in relation to the third rate hike before the end of the year. On Tuesday we heard from Brainard and Harker, that it will be easier for the FOMC consensus to start the process of reducing the balance sheet probably already in September. There is still more uncertainty and more doubts are regarding the December interest rate hike. According to the FedWatch tool by CME Group, the probability of interest rate hike in September is at the level of 8.1% and a probability of an interest rate hike in December just decreased from 70% to 47%.

Today's is the second day of Jannet Yellen testimony in front of the US Congress and two more FOMC voting members, Charles Evans and Lael Brainard will present their comments regarding the monetary policy. Without more hawkish statements, there is no reason to expect the USD to gain today especially when US bond yields do not rebound after Wednesday's decline.

Let's now take a look at the US Dollar technical picture at the H4 timeframe. Despite the oversold market conditions, the bulls were unable to break out substantially above the technical resistance at the level of 95.91. There is still a chance for a Double Bottom pattern, but any breakout below the level of 95.47 will invalidate this possibility.

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Divergence Analysis USD / JPY July 13, 2017

4h

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As the price rebounded from the correction level of 100.0% - 114.36 and formed a bearish divergence, the USD/JPY moved downwards through the correctional level of 76.4% - 113.06.

A reversal from the Fibo level of 76.4% allows traders to expect a rally in favor to the US dollar and a slight increase towards the correction level of 100.0%. Prices consolidated under the Fibo level of 76.4% will work when the correction level of 61.8% declined. There are no emerging divergences on July 13.

Daily

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As shown in the 24-hour chart, the pair pulled back from the correction level of 23.6% to 114.07 which could lead to a reversal towards the Japanese currency. This also resulted in a downtrend towards the direction of the Fibo level began 38.2% - 111.17. There are no emerging divergences seen in any indicator. The prices are fixed above the correction level of 23.6% which is favorable to the US currency and the growth continues through the Fibo level 0.0% - 118.66. The pair's retracement from the correction level of 38.2% will work similarly with an earlier uptrend.

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Technical analysis of USDX for July 13, 2017

The Dollar index has weakened significantly after the speech by FED Chairwoman Janet Yellen. Price is now testing the recent lows and critical short-term support. Breaking below 95.50 gives us a target at 94.60. Trend remains bearish as long as price is below 96.40.

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Red line - resistance

Blue line - support

The Dollar index got rejected by the Ichimoku cloud resistance at 96.30 and reversed back to its recent lows. The bearish scenario of a downward break has more chances as long as price is below 96.10-96.30. Trend remains bearish. If support fails to hold, next target is at 94.60.

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Blue lines - bearish channel

The Dollar index weekly chart remains bearish with oversold signs running since late April. Price is on top of the lower channel boundary. I believe we should focus on the bounce as I believe the downside is limited.

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Technical analysis of gold for July 13, 2017

Gold price remains inside the bearish channel but has a lot of chances that an important low is made. I remain longer-term bullish expecting Gold to bounce towards $1,260 at least.

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Blue lines - bearish channel

Gold price is below the Ichimoku cloud but the bearish trend is now being challenged. Short-term resistance is at $1,230. Support at $1,205. Breaking above resistance will push price towards $1,260 at least. Breaking support will push price towards $1,180.

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Red lines - wedge patterns

Gold price has broken out of the downward sloping wedge pattern providing a bullish signal. Wedges are usually retraced to 100% so a push towards $1,250-60 is our minimum target. There we also find the daily Kumo (cloud) resistance. I'm bullish on Gold in the short and long term.

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Trading plan for 13/07/2017

Trading plan for 13/07/2017:

After yesterday's Jannet Yellen speech the US Dollar is getting weaker across the board. The strongest currency is NZ with the rise of 0.33%, SEK with +0.28% gains, and EUR with +0.27% gains. CAD is trying to slow its uptrend after yesterday's Bank of Canada decision to raise interest rates. Oil failed to make a major upward correction and returned to decline. On the Asian stock market, there is definitely positive sentiment. The strongest in Asia is Hang Seng (+1.0%), followed by Shanghai Composite (+0.65%). The Nikkei 225 is fluctuating around yesterday's close.

On Thursday 13th of July, the event calendar is again busy with important data releases, especially during the US session. But before that Germany, France, and Spain will issue Consumer Price Index data, then the Bank of England will present Credit Conditions Survey for the second quarter. During the US session, market participants will get familiar with PPI Index, Unemployment Claims, and Continuing Claims. Moreover, there is a scheduled second part of the Federal Reserve Chairperson Janet Yellen testimony in front of the US Congress and some speeches of other FOMC members like Lael Brainard and Charles Evans.

EUR/USD analysis for 13/07/2017:

The German Consumer Price Index (CPI) data were released unchanged for the reported month and did not change on a yearly basis as well (0.2% m/m and 1.5% y/y). Nevertheless, inflation data this year has delivered several stronger-than-expected reports, so one month of stagnation will not make that much difference and will be considered as transitory.

The European Central Bank has offered only a little information regarding how or when it will begin to decrease its bond-buying program, but the recent bunch of firmer economic data from the Eurozone (for example yesterday's industrial production data and general outlook of the Eurozone second-quarter GDP) suggests that the ECB will soon be forced to reveal its plans.

Let's not take a look at the EUR/USD technical picture on the H1 time frame. The 61.8% Fibo retracement at the level of 1.1450 clearly makes the bull market a problem, as pointed out by the falling star candlestick formation. It can therefore be assumed that the supply side will soon take control of the market and lead to another slide towards the next technical support at the level of 1.1390 (which is the low corresponding to the SMA200 yesterday). On the other hand, any breakout above 1.1450 will result in an increase to 1.1490 (yesterday's high).

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Market Snapshot: AUD/USD close to three-month highs

The price of AUD/USD surged yesterday to the level of 0.7731, which is close to the three-month high located at the level of 0.7748. Nevertheless, there is a clear bearish divergence between the price and the momentum indicator and at the lower time frames, the price is trading in overbought conditions. This is why some kind of a corrective pullback towards the technical support at the level of 0.7711 or even 0.7678 is expected.

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Market Snapshot: Crude Oil declines back to the range

The price of Crude Oil reversed sharply after hitting the 78%Fibo at the level of $46.53 and currently is trading sideways in a tight range between the levels of $45.11 - $45.61. At hourly time frame the market conditions are oversold, so another test of the technical resistance at the level of $45.61 is expected, but as long as the level of $46.53 is not clearly violated, the bias remains bearish.

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Gold Seized the Dollar

Gold managed to get away from a four-month low due to the weakness of the US dollar and the fall in the yield on Treasury bonds. UBS notes that the collapse of prices at $90 from the level of its June highs is not surprising, as real treasury rates of the US and the eurozone debt market rose to annual and more than annual highs. Nevertheless, the bank expects a stabilization of the yield of securities at current levels, which will allow precious metals to reach $1,200 per ounce and form a medium-term range of consolidation.

Gold is not in a position to compete with revenue-producing bonds, so the wave of sales in the market of the latter, which is fueled by the "hawkish" rhetoric of several central banks of developed countries, has become the catalyst for the collapse of XAU/USD prices. The shares of negative yield bonds included in the Bloomberg-Barclays index dropped to 14%, its lowest value for the last 18 months. In terms of value, we are talking about $6.5 trillion. In mid-2016, when a referendum showed the desire of the U.K. to withdraw from the EU, there were more than $12 trillion. The smaller the securities with zero or negative interest rates are, the more difficult it is for the precious metal. Commerzbank reports an outflow of capital from the ETF with the amount equivalent to 22.6 tonnes in the week ended July 7. Holdings at the largest specialized fund SPDR Gold Shares have reached the lowest level since March.

The situation in the futures market is not any better. Hedge funds are well aware of the threat posed by the monetary policy of central banks of developed countries, and reduced their net-long futures and options by 51% to 37,776 contracts, which is the worst fall since 2015.

The dynamics of speculative net positions on gold

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Source: Bloomberg.

However, the collapse in prices, as a rule, would attract buyers of the physical asset. According to Bloomberg sources, who wished to remain anonymous, gold imports by India jumped to 72 metric tonnes in June from 31.8 tonnes a year earlier. In May, there were even more than that (126 tonnes). In fact, the main reason is not the peak of gold in the world market, but rumors of a raise in tariffs by 5%, which fueled increased appetite from jewelers to build up inventories and purchases due to the wedding season in August-September. As a result, the tax was raised by 3%, in fear that the slowdown in imports in July will raise risks.

In the short term, Janet Yellen's speech before the Congress will be important in order to clarify the fate of XAU/USD. There are rumors in the market which claim that Donald Trump is planning to replace her with Gary Cohen, so that speech could be her last. Nevertheless, investors continue to follow the Fed Chairwoman's words with aspirations. If it remains optimistic on the outlook for the economy and inflation in the US, the dollar could quickly recover lost ground, sending gold to another knockdown.

Technically, if the re-test support at $1208 per ounce succeeds, then the "bears" will be able to develop a downward trend in the direction of $1180, $1160 and $1140.

Gold daily chart

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for July 13, 2017

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When the European market opens, some Economic Data will be released, such as French Final CPI m/m and German Final CPI m/m. The US will release the Economic Data, too, such as Federal Budget Balance, 30-y Bond Auction, Natural Gas Storage, Core PPI m/m, Unemployment Claims, PPI m/m, and the Fed Chair Yellen Testifies, so, amid the reports, EUR/USD will move in a low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:

Breakout BUY Level: 1.1473.

Strong Resistance:1.1466.

Original Resistance: 1.1455.

Inner Sell Area: 1.1444.

Target Inner Area: 1.1417.

Inner Buy Area: 1.1390.

Original Support: 1.1379.

Strong Support: 1.1368.

Breakout SELL Level: 1.1361.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of USD/JPY for July 13, 2017

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In Asia, Japan today will not release any Economic Data but the US will release some Economic Data, such as Federal Budget Balance, 30-y Bond Auction, Natural Gas Storage, Core PPI m/m, Unemployment Claims, PPI m/m, and the Fed Chair Yellen Testifies. So, there is a probability the USD/JPY will move with low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:

Resistance. 3: 113.76.

Resistance. 2: 113.53.

Resistance. 1: 113.31.

Support. 1: 113.04.

Support. 2: 112.82.

Support. 3: 112.60.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Daily analysis of major pairs for July 13, 2017

EUR/USD: The EUR/USD moved further upwards yesterday, now above the support line at 1.1400, and going towards the resistance line at 1.1450. There is a Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the 4-hour chart, and the price would continue to move upwards, going above the resistance line at 1.1450.

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USD/CHF: Right now, the market is moving in a zigzag mode, and it is better to stay away from it until there is a directional movement. A continuous zigzag movement would make the market look unattractive, while a movement above the resistance level at 0.9750 would help generate a bullish signal. A movement below the support level at 0.9550 would lead to a clear bearish signal. A healthy volatility is needed in this market, to achieve this.

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GBP/USD: The GBP/USD is bearish in the shorter-term, and price has not done anything significant this week. The market is in a sideways movement, and should this continue, the bias could turn neutral very soon. However, a rise in momentum is anticipated before the end of this week.

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USD/JPY: The USD/JPY has undergone some meaningful bearish correction in the last few days. This has posed some threat to the recent bullish bias, and as soon as the price goes below the demand level at 112.50, a bearish signal would form. On the other hand, a movement to the upside would help restore the bullishness in the market.

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EUR/JPY: Just like the USD/JPY, this cross pair has also undergone some sale in the context of an uptrend. The RSI period 14 has generated a bearish signal, but the EMAs 11 and 56 are yet to follow suit. When the EMA 11 crosses the EMA 56 to the downside, a bullish signal would be formed.

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for July 13, 2017

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Overview:

  • The NZD/USD pair is still moving around the spot of 0.7250 and 0.7343. Hence, it should be noted that the support is established at the level of 0.7205 which represents a pivot point. The NZD/USD pair is showing signs of force following a breakout of the highest price of 0.7205. The price has been in a bullish channel this week. This is confirmed by the RSI indicator signaling that we are still in a bullish trending market. The NZD/USD pair continues to move upwards from the level of 0.7205. As long as the trend is above the price of 0.7205, the market is still in an uptrend. The trend is still strong above the moving average. The NZD/USD pair didn't make any significant movements in the last two days. The market is indicating a bullish opportunity above the mentioned support levels. The bullish outlook remains valid as long as the 100 EMA heads for the upside. Therefore, strong support will be found around the spot of 0.7159-0.7205 providing a clear signal to buy with a target seen at 0.7250. If the trend breaks the first resistance at 0.7250, the pair will move upwards continuing the bullish trend development to the level of 0.7305 in order to test the daily resistance 2. It should be noted that the major resistance is seen at the levels of 0.7344 and 0.7400. On the other hand, the stop loss should be placed at the price of 0.7200.
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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for July 13, 2017

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Overview:

  • As expected, the USD/CHF pair continues to rise from the level of 0.9623. The current price is seen around the area of 0.9620-0.9650. It should be noted that the support is established at the level of 0.9623 which represents the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level on the H1 chart. The price is likely to form a double bottom in the same time frame. Accordingly, the USD/CHF pair is showing signs of strength following a breakout of the highest level of 0.9666. So, buy above the level of 0.9623 with the first target at 0.9698 in order to test the daily resistance 1 and further to 0.9737 (the double top). Also, it might be noted that the level of 0.9737 is a good place to take profit because it will form a double top. However, in case a reversal takes place and the USD/CHF pair breaks through the support level of 0.9623, a further decline to 0.9575 can occur which would indicate a bearish market. Also, it should be noted that the double bottom is seen at the price of 0.9550.
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Daily analysis of USDX for July 13, 2017

USDX continues to ride the bearish side and the consolidation below the 200 SMA at H1 chart still prevails. To the downside, we might expect a testing of the 95.10 level, but we would need to wait for a confirmation from the MACD indicator, which is still in the positive territory. In the bullish path, closest resistance is placed in the 200 SMA zone.

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H1 chart's resistance levels: 96.77 / 97.20

H1 chart's support levels: 96.38 / 95.77

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place sell (short) orders only if the USD Index breaks with a bearish candlestick; the support level is at 95.77, take profit is at 95.10 and stop loss is at 96.42.

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Daily analysis of GBP/USD for July 13, 2017

GBP/USD recovered from Wednesday's lows and it's testing once again the 200 SMA at H1 chart. However, the closest resistance is located around 1.2914, which is the last hurdle to overcome before to reach 1.3011 to the upside and it would be the confirmation that a bullish trend for the mid term has started. MACD indicator supports such scenario.

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H1 chart's resistance levels: 1.2914 / 1.3011

H1 chart's support levels: 1.2839 / 1.2756

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, buy (long) orders only if the GBP/USD pair breaks a bullish candlestick; the resistance level is at 1.2914, take profit is at 1.3011 and stop loss is at 1.2818.

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Analysis of USD / JPY Divergences for July 12

4h

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After the currency pair USD / JPY rebounded from the correction level of 100% to 114.36 and the formation of a bearish divergence, the quotes executed a reversal in favor of the currency of Japan and began to fall in the direction of the correctional level of 76.4% - 113.06. Bearish divergence in the CCI indicator: The last peak of quotations turned out to be higher than the previous one, and the analogous peak of the indicator is lower than the previous one. The retracement of the rate from the Fibo level of 76.4% will allow us to expect a turn in favor of the US currency and some growth towards the correction level of 100.0%, while consolidation under the Fibo level of 76.4% will work in favor of a further fall.

Daily

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On the 24-hour chart, the pair completed the growth to the correction level of 23.6% - 114.07. On July 12, there are no visible divergences for any indicator. The pair's retracement from the Fibo level of 23.6% will allow traders to count on a reversal in favor of the Japanese yen and a slight drop towards the corrective level of 38.2% - 111.17. Fixing the quotes above the Fibo level of 23.6% will increase the probability of continuing growth towards the next correction level of 0.0% - 118.66.

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for July 12, 2017

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USD/JPY is under pressure and expected to continue its downside movement. The pair broke below both 20-period and 50-moving averages with strong downside momentum. In addition, the bearish cross between 20-period and 50-period moving averages has been identified, which indicates the bearish signal. The relative strength index is bearish and calls for a further decline.

Hence, as long as 113.20 is not surpassed, look for a new drop to 112.80 and even to 112.40 in extension.

Alternatively, if the price moves in the opposite direction as predicted, along position is recommended above 113.70 with a target at 114.20.

Chart Explanation: The black line shows the pivot point. The current price above the pivot point indicates a bullish position while the price below the pivot point is a sign for a short position. The red lines show the support levels and the green line indicates the resistance level. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Strategy : BUY , Stop Loss: 114, Take Profit: 114.90

Resistance levels: 113.95, 114.20, and 114.75

Support levels: 112.80,112.40, and 112.00

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USD/CHF profit target reached again, prepare to buy on dips

Price has dropped from our selling area perfectly and reached our profit target for the 4th time in a row. We prepare to buy on major support at 0.9598 (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap support) for a push up to at least 0.9652 resistance (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap resistance).

Stochastic (55,5,3) is seeing strong support above 3.48% where we expect a nice bounce from.

Buy above 0.9598. Stop loss at 0.9568. Take profit at 0.9652.

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for July 12, 2017

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USD/CHF is trading under pressure and looking for a downward movement. The pair accelerated on the downside after breaking below the lower boundary of the rising channel. The 20-period moving average crossed below the 50-period one. The relative strength index also broke below the bullish trend line since July 6. The U.S. dollar was pressured by concerns raised by emails released by Donald Trump Jr.

To sum up, below 0.9685, look for a further decline to 0.9625 and even to 0.9605 in extension.

Chart Explanation: The black line shows the pivot point; the present price above pivot point indicates the bullish position and below pivot points indicates the short position. The red lines show the support levels and the green line indicates the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Strategy: SELL, Stop Loss: 0.9685, Take Profit: 0.9625 and 9605

Resistance levels: 0.9700, 0.9730, and 0.9775

Support levels: 0.9625, 0.9605, and 0.9590

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Technical analysis of GBP/JPY for July 12, 2017

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GBP/JPY is expected to trade with a bullish outlook and looking for limited upside as bias remains bullish. The pair remains supported by a rising trend line and stays above its 50-period moving average, which should maintain the positive bias. The relative strength index is around its neutrality area at 50, showing a lack of momentum. Even though a continuation of the consolidation in current stage cannot be ruled out, its extent should be limited.

As long as 145.55 is not broken down, a further advance is preferred with 146.50 and 146.80 as targets.

Alternatively, if the price moves in the opposite direction as predicted, a short position is recommended below 145.55 with the target at 145.25.

Chart Explanation: the black line shows the pivot point. The price above pivot point indicates the bullish position and when it is below pivot points, it indicates a short position. The red lines show the support levels and the green line indicates the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Strategy: BUY, Stop Loss: 145.55, Take Profit: 146.50.

Resistance levels: 146.50, 146.80, and 147.50

Support levels: 145.25, 144.50, and 144.00

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AUD/JPY testing major resistance, remain bearish

Price has slowly crept up towards our selling area and we expect to see a drop on it soon. We remain bearish looking to sell below 86.97 resistance (Fibonacci extension, horizontal swing high resistance, Elliott wave theory, bearish divergence) for a drop down towards 85.74 support (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal swing low support).

Stochastic (34,5,3) is seeing strong resistance below 98% and we expect a drop below this level. We can also see bearish divergence has been formed vs price which signals that a drop is impending.

Sell below 86.97. Stop loss at 87.71. Take profit at 85.74.

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