Overview of GBP/USD on October 1st. Forecast according to the "Regression Channels". Traders fear the implementation of the

4-hour timeframe

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Technical data:

The upper channel of linear regression: direction – sideways.

The lower channel of linear regression: direction – up.

The moving average (20; smoothed) – down.

CCI: -86.8173

Over the past day, no interesting reports from the UK Parliament have been received. Boris Johnson's secret plans to withdraw the country from the European Union on October 31 boil down to the fact that the EU itself will refuse to grant a delay to the UK. In that case, Johnson would be "clean" before the law, which obliges him to ask for a reprieve if his government is unable to agree on a "deal" before October 19. However, Johnson should exactly ask the EU to postpone the date of Brexit and, of course, it should be an official request, fixed on paper, and not a telephone conversation with Jean-Claude Juncker. However, Boris Johnson continues to hand out interviews to the right and to the left in which tirelessly declares that Brexit will take place by all means on October 31, and he will ask the European Union not to grant a delay. This is the uncertainty that discourages traders from buying the British pound. Now, as for most of the 3 years, no one can say with high probability what exactly will end this entire epic. In such a situation, forex market participants can only wait for new information. In the meantime, this information is not available, most traders prefer to get rid of the British currency amid fears that the Prime Minister somehow still implements a "hard" Brexit.

Also, the pound begins to be dependent on macroeconomic statistics from the UK again. Yesterday's GDP report for the second quarter is contradictory. On the one hand, GDP in annual terms showed an increase of 1.3%, with a forecast of +1.2% y/y, but on the other hand, a quarterly decrease in GDP by 0.2% was recorded. Today, the index of business activity in the manufacturing sector will be published and nothing good can be expected from it. The past value of the indicator is 47.4, the forecast is 47.0. That is, experts do not expect the situation in the manufacturing sector to improve, respectively, there are practically no hopes that business activity will suddenly rise to 50.0. Traders can completely ignore US business activity indexes, since Brexit, its consequences and the current "figures" of the state of the economy are of great importance for the pound.

Topics with possible impeachments to Boris Johnson and his best friend Donald Trump are still not particularly concerned about market participants. Even it seems that traders do not see anything dangerous in the litigation involving the leaders of the US and the UK. Is it because Boris Johnson and Donald Trump are ambiguous leaders and the negative impact on the US and British economies from their activities are more than positive? But, one way or another, while these topics are not particularly interested in traders, they may be interested in the processes move from the "conversational" stage to the stage of active opposition actions.

The technical picture of the pound is now similar to the currency pair EUR/USD. The pound continues its downward movement based on fundamental factors and traders' concerns about the outcome of the entire Brexit process. Thus, today we are waiting for another fall in the British currency.

Nearest support levels:

S1 – 1.2268

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 – 1.2299

R2 – 1.2329

R3 – 1.2360

Trading recommendations:

The GBP/USD pair continues its downward movement on October 1. Thus, traders are advised to continue buying the US currency with a target of 1.2268 and below. Short positions can be held until the Heiken Ashi indicator turns upward. It is not recommended to buy the pound/dollar pair now.

In addition to the technical picture, fundamental data and the time of their release should also be taken into account.

Explanation of the illustrations:

The upper channel of linear regression – the blue lines of the unidirectional movement.

The lower channel of linear regression – the purple line of the unidirectional movement.

CCI – the blue line in the indicator regression window.

The moving average (20; smoothed) – the blue line on the price chart.

Support and resistance – red horizontal lines.

Heiken Ashi – an indicator that colors bars in blue or purple.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Indicator analysis. Daily review on October 1, 2019 for the EUR / USD currency pair

Trend analysis (Fig. 1).

On Tuesday, after reaching the lower fractal level of 1.0886, a pullback upward movement is possible with the target of 1.0919 - a pullback level of 14.6% (blue dashed line).

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Fig. 1 (daily chart).

Comprehensive analysis:

- indicator analysis - up;

- Fibonacci levels - up;

- volumes - up;

- candlestick analysis - up;

- trend analysis - down;

- Bollinger Lines - up;

- weekly schedule - up.

General conclusion:

On Tuesday, an upward movement is possible.

The first upper target is 1.0919 - (blue dashed line). In case of penetration, the next target 1.1040 - a pullback level of 23.6% (blue dashed line).

An unlikely scenario is the lower work with the target of 1.0863 - a pullback level of 76.4% (yellow dashed line).

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Indicator analysis. Daily review on October 1, 2019 for the GBP / USD currency pair

Trend analysis (Fig. 1).

On Tuesday, the price may continue to move down to the lower fractal - 1.2271 (red dashed line). In case of breaking through this level, the continuation of the downward movement to the pullback level of 61.8% - 1.2198 (blue dotted line) is possible.

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Fig. 1 (daily chart).

Comprehensive analysis:

- indicator analysis - down;

- Fibonacci levels - down;

- volumes - down;

- candlestick analysis - up;

- trend analysis - down;

- Bollinger Lines - down;

- weekly schedule - up.

General conclusion:

On Tuesday, the price may continue to move down.

From the pullback level of 50.0% - 1.2271 (red dashed line), an upward rollback is possible with the target of 1.2317 (red dashed line). In addition, the downward trend is continuing.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Overview of EUR/USD on October 1st. Forecast according to the "Regression Channels". Business activity in production: will

4-hour timeframe

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Technical data:

The upper channel of linear regression: direction – down.

The lower channel of linear regression: direction – down.

The moving average (20; smoothed) – down.

CCI: -129.4507

The first trading day of the week for EUR/USD ended with another fall. It is even difficult to imagine what can now make traders change their attitude to the euro and the US dollar. The US dollar is still in high demand, the euro – do not pay much attention, even if there are fundamental reasons for this.

On October 1, America and the European Union will publish indices of business activity in the manufacturing sector. With Europe – everything is clear for a long time. The past value of the 45.6 indexes is much lower than the level of 50.0, above which it is believed that "everything is good" in industry and there is growth. That is, in principle, any value below 50.0 is considered negative. What are the chances that after several months of steady decline, suddenly the business activity index will rise above 50.0? From our point of view, scanty. Thus, we can hardly expect any support for the euro from this report. Also, a similar index will be published in Germany. But things are even worse in Germany. In August, the figure fell to 41.4. Thus, the hopes for the euro are once again linked to America and macroeconomic statistics from overseas. In the USA today, there will also be an index of business activity in the manufacturing sector, in two variations: from Markit and ISM. The first of them is projected to remain "on the verge" – 51.0, the second – may grow to 50.0 (previous value of 49.1). Thus, the fall of the first index under 50.0 and/or the lack of improvement of the second index to 50.0 will be bullish factors for the euro/dollar pair.

In addition to these rather interesting reports, the European Union will also release a preliminary value of inflation for September. Forecasts are neutral – 1.0% y/y, but we remember that the consumer price index in Germany slowed from 1.4% to 1.2% y/y, so there is every reason to assume a slowdown in European inflation. In this regard, traders again find themselves in a situation where the best thing that can happen today for the euro is not a decrease in inflation in the EU, and the fall of business activity indices in the US.

Well, the technical picture of the pair remains almost unambiguous. Both linear regression channels are directed downward, signaling a downward trend in the medium and long term. The moving average is directed downwards – the short-term trend is also downward. The Heiken Ashi indicator paints the bars blue – the intraday trend is also "down". In such conditions, the reversal of the Heiken Ashi indicator upward will indicate a correction of the pair to the moving average, but there is no such correction yet.

Nearest support levels:

S1 – 1.0864

S2 – 1.0803

S3 – 1.0742

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 – 1.0925

R2 – 1.0986

R3 – 1.1047

Trading recommendations:

The euro/dollar resumed its downward movement. Thus, it is recommended to continue selling the euro with targets of 1.0864 and 1.0803. It is not recommended to return to buying the currency pair now, as the bulls remain extremely weak.

In addition to the technical picture, fundamental data and the time of their release should also be taken into account.

Explanation of the illustrations:

The upper channel of linear regression – the blue lines of the unidirectional movement.

The lower channel of linear regression – the purple lines of the unidirectional movement.

CCI – the blue line in the indicator window.

The moving average (20; smoothed) – the blue line on the price chart.

Support and resistance – red horizontal lines.

Heiken Ashi – an indicator that colors bars in blue or purple.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of ETH/USD for 01/10/2019

Crypto Industry News:

Leading US cryptographic companies such as Coinbase and Kraken have joined forces to launch a rating system to jointly determine which digital assets are securities.

To provide greater transparency about what tokens you can trade without regulatory oversight, major US stock exchanges have created the so-called Crypto Ratings Council, according to financial media.

According to the publication, other members of the Crypto Ratings Council include Circle Internet Financial, Bittrex, Genesis Global Trading, Grayscale Investments, Anchor Labs and the DRW Holdings unit. As the report notes, the group is still recruiting participants.

The officially launched new cryptography council is expected to publish online digital asset ratings on a scale of 1 to 5, where the highest value means that the specific token is considered a security that cannot be issued, sold or traded through unregulated companies. Bitcoin is considered "1" because regulators have publicly stated that Bitcoin is not a security.

Brian Brooks, Coinbase's chief lawyer, who reportedly invented the rating system, stressed that the question of whether a given token is a security or not is "one of the biggest uncertainties around cryptocurrencies and the reason why more asset managers don't feel with them well.

Mary Beth Buchanan, Kraken attorney at law, expressed the hope that the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) would consider the initiative a positive step, claiming that the board intends to show supervisors the efforts of stock exchanges to make decisions on this matter.

Technical Market Overview:

The ETH/USD pair keeps has bounced from the level of $163.98 which was local technical support for the bulls and now is heading towards the 50% of Fibonacci retracement located at the level of $187.37. The technical supply zone located between the levels of $172.82 - $176.66 has been clearly broken, the momentum is now increasing significantly, so there is a chance for the bulls to hit the level of 50% of even the 61% shortly.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - $256.80

WR2 - $233.68

WR1 - $197.61

Weekly Pivot - $174.45

WS1 - $137.03

WS2 - $112.52

WS3 - $77.73

Trading Recommendations:

The best strategy in the current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is still up. All the shorter timeframe moves are still being treated as a counter-trend correction inside of the uptrend. When the wave 2 corrective cycles are completed, the market might will ready for another impulsive wave up of a higher degree and uptrend continuation.

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The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP/USD: plan for the European session on October 1. A break of 1.2275 may coincide with the release of a report on manufacturing

To open long positions on GBP/USD you need:

Several unsuccessful attempts to pull up the pound, after yesterday's report on the reduction in GDP and a decrease in the volume of net loans, led to the return of sellers to the market. However, it was also not possible to break below the low of last week in the region of 1.2275. Only the formation of another false breakdown at this level will lead to an upward correction of the pair to the area of the upper boundary of the side channel of 1.2326, consolidating above which will strengthen the demand for GBP/USD, which will update resistance at 1.2364, where I recommend taking profits. If the level of 1.2275 is still broken on the UK manufacturing activity data, it is best to consider new purchases in GBP/USD after updating the lows near 1.2238 and 1.2165.

To open short positions on GBP/USD you need:

The bears were able to protect the level of 1.2326, which I paid attention to yesterday throughout the day. However, it will be possible to talk about the continuation of the bearish trend only after breaking the low of the week near 1.2275, which may lead to a further decrease in GBP/USD to 1.2238, however, the long-term goal of the bears in the middle of this week will be the support of 1.2165, where I recommend taking profit. If the pressure on the pair weakens, which can only happen after a good report on manufacturing activity in the UK is released, it is best to sell the pound after an upward correction to the upper boundary of the side channel, provided that there is a false breakdown there, or immediately to rebound from a high of 1.2364.

Signals of indicators:

Moving averages

Trading below 30 and 50 moving averages, indicating a bear market in the short term.

Bollinger bands

A break of the lower boundary of the indicator in the region of 1.2270 will lead to increased pressure on the pair, while growth will be limited by the upper level in the area of 1.2315.

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Description of indicators

  • MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow
  • MA (moving average) 30 days - green
  • MACD: Fast EMA 12, Slow EMA 26, SMA 9
  • Bollinger Bands 20
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of BTC/USD for 01/10/2019

Crypto Industry News:

The Venezuelan central bank is investigating the storage options for Bitcoins and Ethereum, according to anonymous sources that supposedly have direct insight into this matter.

According to financial media articles, the central bank of Venezuela is taking a closer look at whether it has the ability to store cryptocurrencies. The state-owned oil and gas company Petroleos de Venezuela SA (PSDV) asked the central bank to investigate the case after the oil producer encountered difficulties in receiving payments from international clients due to US sanctions against the current Venezuelan regime of President Venezuela Nicolas Maduro.

Anonymous sources have stated that PSDV wants to transfer Bitcoin and Ethereum to the Venezuelan central bank and then instruct the central institution to pay cryptocurrency suppliers.

In the hope of overcoming isolation from the global financial system, the Venezuelan central bank is reportedly analyzing proposals in which cryptocurrencies will be included in the country's international reserves, which are currently reaching the lowest level in 30 years of $ 7.9 billion.

Technical Market Overview:

The BTC/USD pair has bounced from the technical support located at the level of $7,676, broke through the technical resistance at $8,282 and is currently heading higher towards the level of $9,046. The momentum is now increasing, so the AO oscillator crossed the zero line on green bars. There is still a chance for the wave (C) terminated already, but if the bears will keep making pressure on bulls then the price might reverse and target the level of $7,419.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - $11,446

WR2 - $10,627

WR1 - $9,093

Weekly Pivot - $8,403

WS1 - $6,727

WS2 - $6,011

WS3 - $4,444

Trading Recommendations:

Due to the short-term impulsive scenario invalidation, the best strategy in the current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is still up. All the shorter timeframe moves are still being treated as a counter-trend correction inside of the uptrend. When the wave 2 corrective cycles are completed, the market might will ready for another impulsive wave up of a higher degree and uptrend continuation.

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The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of GBP/USD for 01/10/2019

Technical Market Overview:

The GBP/USD pair has been trading in a narrow range located between the levels of 1.2342 - 1.2268 after moving towards the level of 50% Fibonacci retracement. The bounce from this level was rather shallow, so the price is still under the bearish pressure and the market is trading below the trendline. The next target for bears is seen at the level of 1.2231 - 1.2224 and if violated, then the bears might push the prices towards the 61% Fibonacci located at the level of 1.2195. Please notice, the market conditions are now extremely oversold and the RSI is showing a negative and weak momentum, so the bounce might occur any time soon.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.2628

WR2 - 1.2566

WR1 - 1.2402

Weekly Pivot - 1.2333

WS1 - 1.2163

WS2 - 1.2096

WS3 - 1.1935

Trading Recommendations:

The best strategy for current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is down. All upward moves will be treated as local corrections in the downtrend. In order to reverse the trend from down to up, the key level for bulls is seen at 1.2505 and it must be clearly violated. The key short-term technical support is seen at the level of 1.2231 - 1.2224 and the key short-term technical resistance is located at the level of 1.2381. As long as the price is trading below this level, the downtrend continues towards the level of 1.1957 and below.

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for 01/10/2019

Technical Market Overview:

The newest lower low on EUR/USD market was made at the level of 1.0885. The bulls are trying to bounce, but so far they were capped by the nearest technical resistance located at the level of 1.0964. The short-term and long-term trend is still down, but due to the extremely oversold market conditions, the bulls still have a chance for a move towards the level of 1.0964 and higher towards the level of 1.0978. The next target for bears is seen at the level of 1.0817.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.1116

WR2 - 1.1087

WR1 - 1.0996

Weekly Pivot - 1.0951

WS1 - 1.0872

WS2 - 1.0826

WS3 - 1.0757

Trading Recommendations:

The best strategy for current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is down. All upward moves will be treated as local corrections in the downtrend. The downtrend is valid as long as it is terminated or the level of 1.1445 clearly violated. There is an Ending Diagonal price pattern visible on the larget timeframes that indicate a possible downtrend termination soon. The key short-term levels are technical support at the level of 1.0926 and the technical resistance at the level of 1.1267.

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EUR/USD: plan for the European session on October 1. Weak inflation and manufacturing activity in the eurozone will cause

To open long positions on EURUSD you need:

Yesterday, buyers missed the next support level of 1.0905, a return to which will be a priority for today. However, much will depend on the release of reports on production activity in the eurozone countries, especially Germany, as well as data on inflation in the eurozone. With weak reports, EUR/USD buyers can only count on the support level of 1.0873 and on the formation of a false breakdown there, however, it is best to open long positions immediately for a rebound from a low of 1.0804. If the reports come out fairly positive, then a break and consolidation above the resistance of 1.0905 will lead to a larger upward correction to the area of highs of 1.0930 and 1.0958, where I recommend taking profits.

To open short positions on EURUSD you need:

Production activity in the eurozone countries will continue to be rather weak amid trade conflicts, so today's reports may allow euro sellers to continue the current downward trend. The formation of a false breakdown and unsuccessful consolidation at 1.0905 in the first half of the day will be a direct signal to open short positions in order to pull down EUR/USD to the lowest area of 1.0873, as well as an update of support at 1.0840, where I recommend taking profits. If the bulls manage to regain the resistance of 1.0905, you can count on short positions from a high of 1.0930, and also sell for a rebound a little higher, in the region of 1.0958.

Signals of indicators:

Moving averages

Trading is below 30 and 50 moving averages, indicating a further decline in the euro

Bollinger bands

In case of EUR/USD decline in the morning, a break of the lower boundary of the indicator in the region of 1.0880 will increase pressure on the euro.

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Description of indicators

  • MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow
  • MA (moving average) 30 days - green
  • MACD: Fast EMA 12, Slow EMA 26, SMA 9
  • Bollinger Bands 20
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for October 1 - 2019

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EUR/JPY dipped to a low of 117.55 before turning higher. We are now looking for a re-test of short-term key-resistance at 118.56 and a break above here will confirm wave ii has completed and wave iii higher to at least 121.93 is developing.

Only a break below 117.43 will indicate that wave ii still is in motion but the potential downside should be limited to the 117.14 - 117.28 area.

R3: 118.79

R2: 118.56

R1: 118.20

Pivot: 118.03

S1: 117.91

S2: 117.73

S3: 117.55

Trading recommendation:

We bought EUR at 117.92 and have our stop placed at 117.40.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Elliott wave analysis of GBP/JPY for October 1 - 2019

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We expect minor resistance at 133.23 will be able to protect the upside for renewed downside pressure through key-support at 132.10 for a final dip to 130.78 to complete red wave ii and set the stage for a new impulsive rally in red wave iii for a rally towards 139.20.

Only a direct break above resistance at 134.61 will indicate that red wave ii completed early and red wave iii already is developing.

R3: 133.68

R2: 133.51

R1: 133.28

Pivot: 132.92

S1: 132.56

S2: 132.10

S3: 131.96

Trading recommendation:

We are looking for a buying-opportunity at 131.25 or upon a break above 134.61

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Technical analysis: Important Intraday Levels For EUR/USD, October 01, 2019

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When the European market opens, some economic data will be released such as Core CPI Flash Estimate y/y, CPI Flash Estimate y/y, Final Manufacturing PMI, German Final Manufacturing PMI, French Final Manufacturing PMI, Italian Manufacturing PMI, and Spanish Manufacturing PMI. The US will also publish the economic data such as Wards Total Vehicle Sales, ISM Manufacturing Prices, Construction Spending m/m, ISM Manufacturing PMI, and Final Manufacturing PMI, so amid the reports, the EUR/USD pair will move with low to medium volatility during this day. TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVELS: Breakout BUY Level: 1.0956. Strong Resistance: 1.0946. Original Resistance: 1.0935. Inner Sell Area: 1.0924. Target Inner Area: 1.0899. Inner Buy Area: 1.0874. Original Support: 1.0863. Strong Support: 1.0852. Breakout SELL Level: 1.0846. (Disclaimer)The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis: Important Intraday Levels for USD/JPY, October 01, 2019

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In Asia, Japan will release the Final Manufacturing PMI, Tankan Manufacturing Index, Tankan Non-Manufacturing Index, and Unemployment Rate. The US will also publish some economic data such as Wards Total Vehicle Sales, ISM Manufacturing Prices, Construction Spending m/m, ISM Manufacturing PMI, and Final Manufacturing PMI. So there is a probability the USD/JPY pair will move with low to medium volatility during this day. TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVELS: Resistance. 3: 108.75. Resistance. 2: 108.54. Resistance. 1: 108.33. Support. 1: 108.05. Support. 2: 107.84. Support. 3: 107.63. (Disclaimer)The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

USD/JPY. The rough activity of the Democrats pushes up the US dollar

On the first trading day of the week, the USD/JPY bears again tried to enter the 107th figure, against the backdrop of a surge in anti-risk sentiment in the foreign exchange market. However, sellers could not resist in this price area for several hours: the general strengthening of the dollar pushes the pair up to new local highs.

The dollar index confidently broke through the level of 99 points, currently reaching 99.132 points. The last time the indicator was in this area was back in April 2017 - at a time when the Federal Reserve nearly raised the interest rate at each of its meetings - in total, the regulator increased it from 12% to 1.5% over the 12 months, announcing further steps in this direction. The growth of the US currency in the context of tightening monetary policy is quite understandable, but at the moment the greenback is growing only on emotions, reacting to loud statements by politicians regarding the prospects of the impeachment procedure. The dollar also follows the stock market - the S&P 500 is in the area of record highs, and many experts see this as a sign of the resumption of the bull market.

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But still, the main reasons for the growth of the USD/JPY pair are the events of the external fundamental background. The events of recent days eloquently testify to this. So, at the close of the last trading week, shares of Chinese companies collapsed: information appeared in the press that the US authorities were discussing the possibility of delisting (removing company securities from the quotation list) of Chinese companies from their stock exchanges. In addition, according to a published insider, the White House also plans to limit the presence of US pension funds in China's financial market. In response to this insider, shares of such giants as Alibaba, Baidu and JD showed a sharp decline. On Monday, the currency market also responded to these rumors - at the opening of the trading week, the dollar-yen pair corrected to around 107.76, although on Friday the pair closed within the 108th figure.

But during the US session on Monday, the price confidently returned to its previous position. The White House almost immediately commented on the rumors that appeared: according to the representative of the US Treasury Department, the Trump administration "at present" does not consider plans to block the admission of securities of Chinese companies to US stock exchanges. Traders were not confused by the remark that these restrictions were not planned to be introduced "at the moment" - by and large, the official Washington did not refute the very concept of the proposal under discussion.

In addition, the White House did not comment on other possible restrictive measures that journalists spoke about (about restricting the presence of US pension funds in the Chinese financial market). If it were not for the general hysteria over the possible impeachment, the USD/JPY bulls would not have satisfied this answer - traditional defensive tools would still be in demand. But the political factor made its own corrections - thanks to the unfolding political scandal in the US, the dollar sweeps everything in its path, ignoring all other fundamental factors.

As you know, Congress was able to find votes to accept the consideration of the impeachment of President Donald Trump. And although this scenario was quite predictable (the Lower Congressional Board is controlled by the Democrats), this fact caused almost panic among traders. Partly due to the fact that initially the initiators of the vote did not have enough votes (210 out of the necessary 218). But still, representatives of the Democratic Party were able to consolidate their efforts and launch the appropriate procedure.

Now the relevant committees of the House of Representatives (which are again controlled by the Democrats) are conducting an investigation, summoning Trump administration officials and officials of other departments to Congress to give explanations. In other words, opponents of the Republicans do not waste time, using the political platform that they were provided "to the fullest." All these events support the dollar, as investors see it as a safe haven in a period of heightened uncertainty. It is noteworthy that the remaining safe haven currencies, which include the yen, continue to lose their positions. The dynamics of the USD/JPY pair most clearly demonstrates the general state of affairs in the foreign exchange market.

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But here it is worth recalling again that if, following the results of the investigation, the House of Representatives votes for impeachment, then the Senate will consider this issue further. In order to remove the president from office (which has not yet happened in US history) two-thirds of senators must vote for this. According to the results of the midterm elections, the Senate is controlled by Republicans, who in 2020 will also go to the polls with their leader. According to many political analysts, they will not play "giveaways" with their competitors, especially against the background of sufficiently "strained" accusations. Moreover, representatives of the Republican Party launched a counterattack - in particular, they demand that the Minister of Justice and Attorney General William Barr investigate the ties between the Ukrainian authorities and the Hillary Clinton headquarters during the 2016 presidential election.

Thus, the political epic with the "dismissal" of Donald Trump provides significant support to the US currency. Given the fact that the scandal is not abating, the dollar index continues to go up, reflecting the demand for greenbacks throughout the market. The yen can not oppose the dollar - traditional defensive instruments (including franc and gold) also lose their position, giving way to a rally of the US currency. It is difficult to say at what stage the political scandal will lose its force. The House of Representatives can indeed pass the indictment to the Senate (given the political pressure of the Democrats), but the future prospects for impeachment still look vague, especially against the backdrop of active Republican actions of a defensive nature.

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In other words, the USD/JPY pair maintains its growth potential towards the middle of the 109th figure, namely, at 109.50, where the lower boundary of the Kumo cloud coincides with the upper line of the Bollinger Bands indicator on the weekly chart. The intermediate (nearest) upward target is the level of 108.80 (also the upper line of the Bollinger Bands indicator, but already on the daily chart).

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Forecast for EUR/USD on October 1,2019

EUR/USD

The euro fell by 38 points on Monday. The readings of technical indicators have become even more bearish. On the daily chart, the Marlin oscillator penetrates deeper into the negative trend zone. The target range is the gap from the price channel line to the Fibonacci level of 161.8% - 1.0806/44. Consolidating the price below it opens the second target at 1.0710 - the low of January 2016.

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On a four-hour chart, the signal line simultaneously develops in two conflicting patterns; a convergence reversal formation is formed, but within the framework of a simple rectangle. In this case, both signals lose power. In the evening, ISM Manufacturing PMI will be released in the September assessment - the forecast is 50.4 versus 49.1 in August, and an increase can also be shown for construction costs in August - the forecast is 0.5% against 0.1% earlier. We look forward to further weakening of the euro.

analytics5d92c84edf98c.png

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Forecast for GBP/USD on October 1,2019

GBP/USD

On Monday, the pound briefly rose to the Fibonacci level of 200.0% (daily chart) and pulled back to Friday's low. At the same time, the Marlin indicator plunged into the negative trend zone. The previously defined goals for Fibonacci retracement remain: 1.2230 - reaction level 223.6%, 1.2150 - reaction level 238.2% near the embedded price channel line.

analytics5d92c72e5c130.png

Weak convergence on yesterday's price growth worked on the four-hour chart. With the price overcoming the low of Friday (1.2270), we look forward to a further decline to the designated target levels.

analytics5d92c7434cf1c.png

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Forecast for AUD/USD on October 1, 2019

AUD / USD

The Reserve Bank of Australia may lower the rate from 1.00% to 0.75% today at 4:30 London time. In anticipation of this, the Australian dollar is declining for the second day in a row. On the daily chart, the price has consolidated below the red balance indicator line. The Marlin indicator on daily after a reversal from the boundary with the growth territory continues to decline. The immediate goal of the decline is the embedded line of the red price channel 0.6665, behind it is the line of the blue price channel with the target mark of 0.6588.

analytics5d92c6004defc.png

On a four-hour chart, the price is developing in a downward trend below the balance line. The Marlin oscillator in the negative trend territory.

analytics5d92c61557bdb.png

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DAILY - #USDX vs EUR / USD vs GBP / USD vs USD / JPY. Comprehensive analysis of movement options on October 2019. Analysis

In anticipation of Brexit - what could be on October 2019 with the movement #USDX , EUR / USD, GBP / USD and USD / JPY s - a comprehensive analysis (the proportion of these instruments in calculating the dollar index is 83.1%)

Minor operational scale (Daily time frame)

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US dollar Index

On October 2019, the development of the movement of the dollar index #USDX will be determined by the direction of the breakdown of the range :

  • resistance level of 99.46 (local maximum);
  • support level of 99.10 (control line UTL Minor operational scale fork).

In case of updating the local maximum 99.46, the upward movement of the dollar index can continue to the goals - control line UTL Minuette (99.65) - warning lines - UWL38.2 (99.85) - UWL61.8 (100.35) - UWL100.0 (101.15) of the Minuette operational scale fork.

If #USDX would be below the reference line UTL (support level of 99.10) Minor operational scale fork, then it will be possible to develop a downward movement of the instrument to the boundaries of the 1/2 Median Line Minuette channel (98.60 - 98.25 - 97.95) with a view to achieving SSL Minor initial line (97.65) and the upper boundary of ISL38.2 (97.35) of the equilibrium zone of the Minuette operational scale fork.

The markup of #USDX motion options on October 2019 is shown in the animated chart.

analytics5d92315c537e6.jpg

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Euro vs US dollar

The development of the movement of the single European currency EUR / USD on October 2019 will also be determined by the direction of the breakdown of the range :

  • resistance level of 1.0950 (the initial line of SSL Minuette operating scale fork);
  • support level of 1.0880 (control line LTL Minuette operational scale fork).

In case of breakdown of the LTL Minuette control line (support level of 1.0880), the downward movement of the single European currency will continue to the warning lines UWL38.2 (1.0850) and UWL61.8 (1.0790) of the Minuette operational scale fork.

If EUR / USD returns above the initial SSL line (resistance level of 1.0950) of the Minuette operational scale, the upward movement of this currency instrument can continue to the boundaries of the 1/2 Median Line channel (1.1010 - 1.1050 - 1.1090) of the Minuette operational scale fork with the prospect of reaching the Median Line (1.1150) of the Minor operating scale fork.

The details of the EUR / USD movement options for October 2019 are shown in the animated chart.

analytics5d92313d88cb1.jpg

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Great Britain pound vs US dollar

The development of Her Majesty's currency movement GBP / USD in October 2019 will also be determined by the direction of the breakdown of the range :

  • resistance level of 1.2330 (the lower boundary of the 1/2 Median Line channel Minor operational scale fork);
  • support level of 1.2280 (the upper boundary of the 1/2 Median Line channel Minuette operational scale fork).

In case of breakdown of the support level of 1.2280, the development of Her Majesty's currency movement will continue within the boundaries of the 1/2 Median Line channel (1.2280 - 1.2185 - 1.2093) and the equilibrium zone (1.2240 - 1.2140 - 1.2040) of the Minuette operational scale forks with the prospect of updating the minimums (1.2017 - 1.1958)

If a breakdown of the resistance level of 1.2330 takes place, then the development of the GBP / USD movement will begin to occur in the 1/2 Median Line channel of the Minor (1.2330 - 1.2450 - 1.2582) with the prospect of reaching the lower boundary of the ISL38.2 (1.2690) equilibrium zone of the Minor operational scale fork.

The details of the GBP / USD movement on October 2019 can be seen in the animated chart.

analytics5d923118bcf8d.jpg

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US dollar vs Japanese yen

Meanwhile, the development of the currency movement of the "country of the rising sun" USD / JPY on October 2019 will continue to be determined by the development and the direction of the breakdown of the boundaries of the 1/2 Median Line channel (107.25 - 108.15 - 109.10) of Minuette operational scale fork. The details of the movement inside this channel are presented in the animated chart.

The breakdown of the resistance level of 109.10 on the upper boundary of the 1/2 Median Line channel of Minuette operational scale will confirm that further the movement of the currency of the "country of the rising sun", which will continue in the 1/2 Median Line channel (109.10 - 110.40 - 111.70) of the Minuette operational scale fork.

In case of breakdown of the lower boundary of the 1/2 Median Line Minuette channel (support level of 109.10), the downward movement of USD / JPY will be directed to the control line LTL (105.65) of the Minor operational scale fork and the start line SSL (105.25) of the Minuette operational scale fork.

We look at the details of the USD / JPY movement on October 2019 in the animated chart.

analytics5d9230ee8a2a5.jpg

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The review is made without taking into account the news background. Thus, the opening of trading sessions of the main financial centers does not serve as a guide to action (placing orders "sell" or "buy").

The formula for calculating the dollar index :

USDX = 50.14348112 * USDEUR0.576 * USDJPY0.136 * USDGBP0.119 * USDCAD0.091 * USDSEK0.042 * USDCHF0.036.

where the power coefficients correspond to the weights of the currencies in the basket:

Euro - 57.6% ;

Yen - 13.6% ;

Pound Sterling - 11.9% ;

Canadian dollar - 9.1%;

Swedish Krona - 4.2%;

Swiss franc - 3.6%.

The first coefficient in the formula leads the index to 100 at the start date of the countdown - March 1973, when the main currencies began to be freely quoted relative to each other.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Fractal analysis of the main currency pairs on October 1

Forecast for October 1:

Analytical review of currency pairs on the scale of H1:

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For the euro / dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.0966, 1.0940, 1.0918, 1.0880, 1.0839, 1.0811 and 1.0761. Here, we continue to monitor the development of the descending structure of September 13. The continuation of the movement to the bottom is expected after the breakdown of the level of 1.0880. In this case, the target is 1.0839. Short-term downward movement, as well as consolidation is in the range of 1.0839 - 1.0811. For the potential value for the bottom, we consider the level of 1.0761. Upon reaching this level, we expect a rollback to the top.

Short-term upward movement is possibly in the range of 1.0918 - 1.0940. The breakdown of the last value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the target is 1.0966. This level is a key support for the bottom.

The main trend is the descending structure of September 13.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.0918 Take profit: 1.0940

Buy 1.0941 Take profit: 1.0965

Sell: 1.0880 Take profit: 1.0840

Sell: 1.0837 Take profit: 1.0813

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For the pound / dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.2448, 1.2395, 1.2362, 1.2362, 1.2286, 1.2258 and 1.2203. Here, we are following the development of the descending structure of September 20. Short-term downward movement is expected in the range 1.2286 - 1.2258. The breakdown of the last value will lead to movement to a potential target - 1.2203. When this level is reached, we expect a pullback to the top.

Short-term upward movement is expected in the range 1.2362 - 1.2395. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the target is 1.2448. This level is a key support for the downward structure.

The main trend is the descending structure of September 20.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.2362 Take profit: 1.2395

Buy: 1.2397 Take profit: 1.2446

Sell: 1.2286 Take profit: 1.2260

Sell: 1.2256 Take profit: 1.2204

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For the dollar / franc pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.0054, 1.0037, 1.0007, 0.9985, 0.9954, 0.9935 and 0.9908. Here, we continue to monitor the development of the ascending structure of September 24. Short-term upward movement is expected in the range of 0.9985 - 1.0007. The breakdown of the last value should be accompanied by a pronounced upward movement. Here, the target is 1.0037. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level of 1.0054. Upon reaching which, we expect consolidation, as well as a pullback to the bottom.

Short-term downward movement is possibly in the range of 0.9954 - 0.9935. The breakdown of the last value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the goal is 0.9908. This level is a key support for the top.

The main trend is the ascending structure of September 24.

Trading recommendations:

Buy : 0.9985 Take profit: 1.0005

Buy : 1.0009 Take profit: 1.0035

Sell: 0.9954 Take profit: 0.9937

Sell: 0.9933 Take profit: 0.9910

analytics5d929a48c0854.png

For the dollar / yen pair, the key levels on the scale are : 108.84, 108.59, 108.24, 108.07, 107.79, 107.65 and 107.41. Here, we are following the development of the ascending structure of September 24. Short-term upward movement is expected in the range 108.07 - 108.24. The breakdown of the last value should be accompanied by a pronounced upward movement. Here, the target is 108.59. Price consolidation is near this level. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level of 108.84. Upon reaching this value, we expect a pullback to the bottom.

Short-term downward movement is expected after the breakdown of the last value in the range of 107.79 - 107.65, which will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the goal is 107.41. This level is the key support for the top.

The main trend: the ascending structure of September 24.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 108.08 Take profit: 108.24

Buy : 108.26 Take profit: 108.57

Sell: 107.79 Take profit: 107.66

Sell: 107.63 Take profit: 107.44

analytics5d929a6354d32.png

For the Canadian dollar / US dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.3304, 1.3286, 1.3262, 1.3247, 1.3203, 1.3174, 1.3157 and 1.3131. Here, we are following the development of the descending structure of September 23. The continuation of the movement to the bottom is expected after the breakdown of the level of 1.3203. In this case, the target is 1.3174. Price consolidation is in the range of 1.3174 - 1.3157. For the potential value for the bottom, we consider the level of 1.3131. Upon reaching this level, we expect a pullback to the top.

Short-term upward movement is possibly in the range of 1.3247 - 1.3262. The breakdown of the last value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the target is 1.3286. This level is a key support for the top. Its breakdown will lead to the development of an upward structure. In this case, the potential target is 1.3304.

The main trend is the descending structure of September 23.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.3247 Take profit: 1.3260

Buy : 1.3264 Take profit: 1.3286

Sell: 1.3203 Take profit: 1.3175

Sell: 1.3173 Take profit: 1.3158

analytics5d929a7e4be64.png

For the Australian dollar / US dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are : 0.6822, 0.6797, 0.6782, 0.6745, 0.6732, 0.6705 and 0.6683. Here, we are following the development of the downward cycle of September 13. Short-term downward movement is possibly in the range 0.6745 - 0.6732. The breakdown of the last value should be accompanied by a pronounced downward movement. Here, the target is 0.6705. Price consolidation is near this value. For the potential value for the bottom, we consider the level of 0.6683. Upon reaching which, we expect a departure in the correction.

Short-term upward movement is possibly in the rangge of 0.6782 - 0.6797. The breakdown of the last value will lead to a long correction. Here, the potential target is 0.6822. This level is a key support for the downward structure.

The main trend is the downward cycle of September 13.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 0.6782 Take profit: 0.6795

Buy: 0.6797 Take profit: 0.6820

Sell : 0.6745 Take profit : 0.6734

Sell: 0.6730 Take profit: 0.6707

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For the euro / yen pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 119.02, 118.57, 118.28, 117.73, 117.51, 117.10 and 116.73. Here, the price canceled the formation of the potential for the top. As a result, we expect the development of the downward structure of September 18. The continuation of the movement to the bottom is expected after the price passes the noise range 117.73 - 117.51. In this case, the target is 117.10. For the potential value for the bottom, we consider the level of 116.73. Upon reaching this value, we expect a rollback to the top.

Short-term upward movement is possibly in the range 118.28 - 118.57. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to in-depth movement. Here, the goal is 119.02. This level is a key support for the downward structure.

The main trend is the descending structure of September 18.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 118.28 Take profit: 118.55

Buy: 118.60 Take profit: 119.00

Sell: 117.50 Take profit: 117.10

Sell: 117.08 Take profit: 116.73

analytics5d929ab5344f3.png

For the pound / yen pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are : 135.81, 134.58, 134.03, 133.06, 132.42, 131.45, 130.78 and 129.88. Here, we are following the development of the descending structure of September 20. Short-term movement to the bottom is expected in the range 133.06 - 132.42. The breakdown of the latter value should be accompanied by a pronounced downward movement. In this case, the target is 131.45. Price consolidation is in the range of 131.45 - 130.78. We consider the level of 129.88 to be a potential value for the downward movement. Upon reaching this level, we expect a pullback to the top.

Short-term upward movement is possibly in the range of 134.03 - 134.58. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to the formation of an upward structure. In this case, the potential target is 135.81.

The main trend is the formation of the downward structure of September 20.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 134.03 Take profit: 134.55

Buy: 134.60 Take profit: 135.80

Sell: 132.40 Take profit: 131.45

Sell: 131.43 Take profit: 130.80

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

DAILY - AUD / USD vs USD / CAD vs NZD / USD vs #USDX. Comprehensive analysis of movement options on October 2019. Analysis

Minor operational scale (H4)

What is October preparing for us? A comprehensive analysis of the development of the movement AUD / USD vs USD / CAD vs NZD / USD vs #USDX on October 2019 at the Minor operational scale ( Daily timeframe ).

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US dollar Index

On October 2019, the development of the movement of the dollar index #USDX will be determined by the direction of the breakdown of the range :

  • resistance level of 99.46 (local maximum);
  • support level of 99.10 (control line UTL Minor operational scale fork).

In case of updating the local maximum 99.46, the upward movement of the dollar index can continue to the goals - control line UTL Minuette (99.65) - warning lines - UWL38.2 (99.85) - UWL61.8 (100.35) - UWL100.0 (101.15) of the Minuette operational scale fork.

On the contrary, if #USDX would be below the reference line UTL (support level of 99.10) Minor operational scale fork, then it will be possible to develop a downward movement of the instrument to the boundaries of the 1/2 Median Line Minuette channel (98.60 - 98.25 - 97.95) with a view to achieving SSL Minor initial line (97.65) and the upper boundary of ISL38.2 (97.35) of the equilibrium zone of the Minuette operational scale fork.

The markup of #USDX movement options on October 2019 is shown in the animated chart.

analytics5d92216ef2eab.jpg

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Australian dollar vs US dollar

The development of the movement of the Australian dollar AUD / USD on October 2019 will also be determined by the direction of the breakdown of the range :

  • resistance level of 0.6760 (initial line SSL Minuette operational scale fork);
  • support level of 0.6720 (final Shiff Line Minor operational scale fork).

The breakdown of the final Shiff Line Minor (support level of 0.6720) - continued development of the downward movement of AUD / USD to the boundaries of the 1/2 Median Line Minuette channel (0.6700 - 0.6655 - 0.6610) with the prospect of reaching the boundaries of the equilibrium zone (0.6520 - 0.6440 - 0.6335) of the Minuette operational scale fork.

On the contrary, the breakdown of the resistance level of 0.6760 (the initial SSL line of the Minuette operational scale fork) - an option for the development of the upward movement of the Australian dollar to the targets - the control line UTL Minuette (0.6825) - local maximum 0.6896 - the lower boundary of the ISL38.2 (0.6950) equilibrium zone of the Minor operational scale fork - local maximum 0.7083.

We look at the layout of the AUD / USD movement options on October 2019 in the animated chart.

analytics5d9221a373752.jpg

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New Zealand dollar vs US dollar

However, the development of the movement of the New Zealand dollar NZD / USD on October 2019 will be determined by the development and direction of the breakdown of the boundaries of the 1/2 Median Line channel (0.6280 - 0.6205 - 0.6120) of the Minor operational scale fork. We look at the animated chart for details of the movement inside this channel.

The breakdown of the lower boundary of the 1/2 Median Line Minor channel (support level of 0.6120) will direct the movement of NZD / USD to the upper boundary of ISL38.2 (0.5910) of the equilibrium zone of the Minor operational scale fork.

If the New Zealand dollar returns above the upper boundary of the 1/2 Median Line Minor channel (resistance level of 0.6280) and the breakdown of the warning line UWL38.2 (0.6320) of the Minor operational scale fork, it will be possible for the NZD / USD to reach the boundaries of the 1/2 Median Line channel (0.6370 - 0.6420 - 0.6475) and equilibrium zones (0.6495 - 0.6565 - 0.6630) of the Minuette operational scale fork.

We look at the layout of the NZD / USD movement options on October 2019 in the animated chart.

analytics5d9221c22825d.jpg

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US dollar vs Canadian dollar

Similarly, the development of the movement of the Canadian dollar USD / CAD on October 2019 will be due to the development and direction of the breakdown of the boundaries of the 1/2 Median Line channel (1.3265 - 1.3195 - 1.3125) of the Minor operational scale fork. The movement markings inside this channel are presented in the animated chart.

If the upper boundary of the 1/2 Median Line channel (resistance level of 1.3265) is broken, the upward movement of the Canadian dollar can be continued towards the targets - control line UTL (1.3320) of the Minuette operational scale fork - warning line UWL61.8 Minor (1.3382) - control line UTL Minor (1.3480).

In case of breakdown of the lower boundary of the 1/2 Median Line channel (1.3125) of the Minor operational scale fork, the development of the USD / CAD movement will continue in the 1/2 Median Line Minuette channel (1.3150 - 1.3090 - 1.3040) with the prospect of reaching the upper boundary of ISL38.2 (1.2980) of the Minuette operational scale fork.

We look at the layout of the USD / CAD movement options on October 2019 in the animated chart.

analytics5d9221e1d5dfe.jpg

____________________

The review is made without taking into account the news background. Thus, the opening of trading sessions of the main financial centers does not serve as a guide to action (placing orders "sell" or "buy").

The formula for calculating the dollar index:

USDX = 50.14348112 * USDEUR0.576 * USDJPY0.136 * USDGBP0.119 * USDCAD0.091 * USDSEK0.042 * USDCHF0.036.

where the power coefficients correspond to the weights of the currencies in the basket:

Euro - 57.6%;

Yen - 13.6%;

Pound Sterling - 11.9%;

Canadian dollar - 9.1%;

Swedish Krona - 4.2%;

Swiss franc - 3.6%.

The first coefficient in the formula leads the index to 100 at the start date of the countdown - March 1973, when the main currencies began to be freely quoted relative to each other.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR/USD. Germany disappointed: welcome to the eighth figure?

The euro-dollar pair today resumed the downward movement and for the first time since 2017 tested the eighth figure. And although on Friday, the EUR/USD bulls were able to win a few dozen points from the bears, corrective growth did not continue today. Political events in the US continue to support the dollar, which is temporarily used by the market as a defensive tool. The European currency is also going through "troubled times" - in anticipation of the release of data on inflation growth in the eurozone, rather weak figures of German inflation were published today. This is a very "wake-up call", which portends the further easing of monetary policy by the ECB.

Such a "black and white" fundamental background opens the way for the EUR/USD bears to the area of the eighth figure, and to be more precise, to the level of 1.0820 (the lower line of the Bollinger Bands indicator on the monthly chart). And although this is the lower limit of the new price range (after the bears overcome the support level of 1.0950), sellers can achieve it in the medium term, especially if fundamental factors resonate in one direction, that is, against the euro and in favor of the dollar.

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The immediate reason for today's downward impulse of the pair was the data on inflation growth in Germany. The annualized general consumer price index continued its downward movement, reaching 1.2% (with a forecast of growth to 1.3%). In monthly terms, the indicator came to zero, adding to the negative picture. The harmonized consumer price index also disappointed. In both monthly and annual terms, the indicator came out in the "red zone", not reaching the forecast values. It is worth recalling that German macroeconomic reports have recently shown extremely weak results. In particular, the September index of business activity in the manufacturing sector in Germany collapsed to a record low - to -41 points. On the whole, in the eurozone, this index also turned out to be lower than forecasted values, recording a slowdown in production. Industrial PMI has been declining for almost the entire year, and since February it has been below the key level of 50 points, indicating a decline in industry. Similar dynamics were recorded in France and Italy. The PMI in the service sector also ended up in the red zone, complementing the overall negative picture.

All this suggests that further easing of the monetary policy parameters of the ECB will continue to be on the agenda. Despite a certain split in the camp of the European Central Bank, most traders are confident that the regulator will not be limited to the measures adopted in September. If tomorrow's release on the growth of pan-European inflation also comes out worse than expected, then the pressure on the euro will grow due to the increased likelihood of further steps by the ECB. By the way, today in the Financial Times publication an interview was published by Mario Draghi, who, among other things, specified that the European Central Bank "still has an arsenal that the regulator can use." At the same time, he clarified that we are talking about the size of the interest rate and the volume of QE. Add fuel to the fire and ECB chief economist Philip Lane. He stated that the European Central Bank has not yet approached the limit for reducing the deposit rate, that is, this indicator has not reached the level that would be harmful to lending. Lane said that in some other countries there are "lower negative rates" (apparently, he meant Switzerland), so the ECB has not yet reached the technical limit in this context.

Such "dovish revelations" of the representatives of the European Central Bank's senior management put pressure on the euro as a whole, and on the EUR/USD pair in particular. Today's macroeconomic data only increased pressure on the single currency, especially on the eve of the publication of a common European CPI. According to preliminary forecasts, the overall index will remain at the level of the previous month, that is, at around one percent. Core inflation should show minimal growth, rising from 0.9% to 1%. If the real numbers fall below the predicted values, the EUR/USD bears will again have a chance to gain a foothold in the eighth figure.

analytics5d92953f8a0c9.jpg

From a technical point of view, the situation is as follows. On all, without exception, higher timeframes (from H4 and above), the pair is on the lower line of the Bollinger Bands indicator under all lines of the Ichimoku indicator, which generated a strong bearish "Parade of Lines" signal. This indicates a clear advantage of the downward movement. The bearish momentum is so strong that it's too early to talk about a price correction: only if the data on the growth of European inflation comes out much better than expected tomorrow, the bulls of the pair can count on a price pullback. Otherwise, priority will remain downwards. The main target of the downward movement is located on the lower line of the Bollinger Bands indicator on the monthly chart, that is, at around 1.0820.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

The dilemma for gold: deep drawdown or chatter in the range?

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Despite the fact that gold continues to recede from three-month highs amid weakening demand for safe haven assets, the long-term trend in precious metals is upward, as the world is entering a period of global instability.

There are plenty of reasons for this; we will name some of them:

1. The long-term struggle for world leadership between the United States and China, due to the fact that the economic and financial potential of China is growing at a faster pace in relation to America.

2. Another exacerbation of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, fraught with a major regional war. This scenario may come true in the coming years.

3. The huge volume of debt obligations (public and private), the size of which in relation to the size of the economies of leading countries makes it impossible to repay them in any future. Debts can only be discounted through devaluation and hyperinflation.

Even these reasons may be enough to create a "perfect storm" on the gold market, which will result in a multiple increase in its value over the next 5-7 years.

However, the current situation is such that, despite the long-term growth factors mentioned above, the gold market is "overheated" and has good chances to adjust downward. The end of September seems to be a good time to start such a correction, the goals of which can be seen in the area of $1,400-1,450 per ounce.

However, it is not a fact that the correction will be just that. It is likely that quotes will continue to consolidate in the range of $1,480-1,560 for a couple of months.

It is expected that in the near future gold will either break the level of $1,480 and rush down for a short time, or again go to test the highs in the area of $1,550.

Specialists at TD Securities believe that increasing concerns about the prospects for the global economy will help investors continue to be interested in defensive assets in order to preserve their capital.

The bank predicts that by the end of this year gold may rise in price up to $1,600 per ounce.

According to experts, gold was shattered by the September decision of the Federal Reserve to lower the interest rate by 0.25%, which disappointed the bulls. Nevertheless, the precious metal may end the current year by $1,600 or higher if the US central bank continues to aggressively mitigate monetary policy in October and December. If this trend continues in 2020, then gold may even update the record highs of $1,900 achieved in 2011.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com