USDCAD: USD gains to sustain further over CAD? June 13, 2019

USD managed to gain impulsive momentum over CAD recently which lead the price to pullback with an aim towards 1.3400 area after the recent impulsive bearish momentum was observed in the pair.

The BOC has expected an economic rebound at their last monetary policy meeting which indicates that the slowdown of the economy of CANADA come to an end. The employment rate has shown 28K as it follows a surge of 107K in April. The Oil Sector and Housing market have started to stabilize which indicates a strong domestic market. Housing Start has been decreased from 233K to 202K but the Building Permit has been improved significantly at 14.7% from 2.8%. The ongoing bearish pressure in Crude Oil prices, now down almost 3.0% for the day and slipping below the $52.00/barrel area. Where the CAD might get support if the Oil price rebounds from any near-term area. The private sector posted a rebound but it is far from being worrying as it follows a great performance in 2019. Moreover, the hourly working is up 2.6% annualized in the quarter after two months of data which is the fastest pace in the last quarter.

On the other hand, US-China trade war having under three weeks to go before proposed talks between the Chinese and U.S. leaders, expectations for progress toward ending the trade war are low and expected that there has been little preparation for a meeting even as the health of the world economy is at stake. U.S. President Donald Trump recently defended the use of tariffs as part of his trade strategy while China vowed a tough response if the United States insists on escalating trade tensions amid ongoing negotiations.

The chances of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut this year have dramatically increased in the past month which is currently observed as an impact of US-China trade war situation. Fed Chair Jerome Powell said last week the central bank would act as appropriate to address risks from the U.S.-China trade war, leaving the door open for a possible rate cut. Today US Import prices report is going to be published which is expected to decrease to -0.3% from the previous value of 0.2% and Unemployment Claims is expected to have positive outcome with decrease to 215k from the previous figure of 218k.

As of the current scenario, despite having worse NFP reports published recently, certain gains on the USD did manage to increase indecision and fear in the trader's sentiment whereas due to mixed reaction in the process, further correction and volatility is expected in this pair whereas CAD still has the upper hand over USD.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price is currently residing below 1.3350 area after an impulsive daily close near to it yesterday. Though the market remains quite volatile and corrective, CAD still has greater probability to gain momentum over USD as the price remains below 1.3500 area while dynamic level of 20 EMA acts as resistance in the process.

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EUR/USD: plan for the European session on June 13. The pressure on the euro may remain, but is unlikely to last long

To open long positions on EURUSD, you need:

Buyers will try to stay above the support of 1.1290 today, and the formation of a false breakdown there will be the first signal for opening long positions in the expectation of updating the weekly maximum in the area of 1.1341, where I recommend taking the profit. Good data on industrial production can help bulls return to the market. In case of a decline under the support of 1.1290 in the first half of the day, it is best to consider long positions on the rebound from the low of 1.1253.

To open short positions on EURUSD, you need:

Bears will try the second time to break below the support of 1.1290, the breakdown of which will be a signal for the opening of short positions in the euro. A bad report on industrial production, which is expected in the morning, will help push EUR/USD to the area of lows of 1.1253 and 1.1203, where I recommend taking the profit. If the demand for the euro returns and the yesterday's downward movement can be considered as nothing more than a correction, it is best to consider the short position for a rebound from the weekly maximum around 1.1341.

Indicator signals:

Moving Averages

Trading is below 30 and 50 moving averages, which indicates a possible decline in EUR/USD.

Bollinger Bands

In case of a decline in the euro, the support will be provided by the lower limit of the indicator in the area of 1.1275, while the growth will be limited by the resistance of 1.1320.

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Description of indicators

  • MA (moving average) 50 days – yellow
  • MA (moving average) 30 days – green
  • MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9
  • Bollinger Bands 20
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Burning forecast EURUSD 06/13/2019

There is no strong important news. The market is waiting for two events: the G-20 Summit where Trump is expected to meet Xi Jin Ping regarding trade disputes. Trump threatened to raise duties by $ 300 billion worth of goods from China if negotiations did not take place. The second event - the Fed meeting on June 19 and the issue of reducing the rates of the dollar.

EURUSD rate still steadfastly transfers the attacks of sellers.

We keep buying from 1.1190 and from 1.1220.

Possible purchases on the breakdown of 1.1350.

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GOLD to reach $1350 soon. June 13, 2019

Gold managed to regain momentum after throwback towards $1320 support area. It is currently heading towards $1350 resistance area. After the break above the Bullish Flag, the bullish run is inevitable. Thus, new highs can be expected.

Gold has been picked as the safe-haven for investment while global equities are getting weaker. The US dollar slightly tumbled amid weak economic reports. The Federal Reserve is expected to keep interest rates unchanged at its next meeting on June 19. However, traders have been speculating on the possibility of key rates cut before the end of this year due to slowing inflation.

The Federal Reserve is feeling the heat from inflation, or its lack thereof and gold bulls believe it's just another little thing that could push the central bank over the edge on monetary easing. The expectation for a rate cut this year also rose last week after a number of Fed officials, including Chairman Jerome Powell, hinted they were open to easing monetary policy. Gold also extended its gains on worries over the US-China trade war. It raised investors' interest in gold as a hedge against a possible recession too.

To sum up, gold is expected to maintain the bullish momentum it acquired recently which may lead the price higher towards $1350 and later towards the ultimate target of $1500. As the support area between $1300-20 holds the price, the bullish bias is expected to continue further.

SUPPORT: 1290, 1300, 1320

RESISTANCE: 1350, 1380, 1400

BIAS: BULLISH

MOMENTUM: VOLATILE

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Control zones for USD/JPY pair on 13.06.19

Today, the pair is in the middle of the flat range formed a week earlier. This speaks of keeping sales open after the 1/2 WCZ OF 108.79-108.70. The goal of the downward movement is the lower border of the flat, which is located at last week's low. Transactions from the current levels are unprofitable in any direction.

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Work within the framework of the flat provides an opportunity for partial fixation and transfer of transactions to breakeven in the event of a flat and continued downward impulse.

The alternative model will be developed if the closure of today's American session happens above the level of 108.79. This will complete the cycle of a downward mid-term impulse and will allow you to look for purchases tomorrow. The probability of the implementation of this model is 30%, hence, it should be considered as auxiliary.

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Daily CZ - daily control zone. The area formed by important data from the futures market, which changes several times a year.

Weekly CZ - weekly control zone. The area formed by marks from the important futures market, which changes several times a year.

Monthly CZ - monthly control zone. The area is a reflection of the average volatility over the past year.

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Control zones for USD/CHF pair on 13.06.19

Today, the pair is trading within the 1/2 WCZ of 0.9954-0.9945, which makes it possible to fix some of the purchases that were open this week and the previous. Today, sales of the instrument are possible if a "false breakdown" model is formed. The first goal of the reduction will be the June minimum.

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Yesterday's minimum was formed at the extreme of the previous week, which makes it significant in determining models of false and true breakdowns.

For continued growth, it will require the closure of today's trading above the level of 0.9954. If this happens, the downward mid-term impulse will be completed and growth next week will become the main model and purchases will come to the fore. Purchases from the current levels will not be profitable this week since there is a range of the average weekly move within the 20pp range.

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Daily CZ - daily control zone. The area formed by important data from the futures market, which changes several times a year.

Weekly CZ - weekly control zone. The area formed by marks from the important futures market, which changes several times a year.

Monthly CZ - monthly control zone. The area is a reflection of the average volatility over the past year.

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Technical analysis of Ethereum for 13/06/2019:

Crypto Industry News:

The American payment giant, Visa, launched a cross-border payment network based on certain aspects of Blockchain technology, as reported by financial media.

The network, called "B2B B2B Connect", aims to facilitate international payments made by global financial institutions by enabling direct interbank transactions between enterprises and beneficiaries.

According to the publication, the network already includes 30 trading channels around the world, which will enable faster and cheaper cross-border payments - by the end of 2019, it is expected to expand to 90 markets.

Visa B2B Connect is partly based on Blockchain technology, containing elements of Hyperledger, an open source DLT technology developed by a group run by the Linux Foundation.

The new network is the result of cooperation with the technology giant IBM, as well as the electronic payment provider Bottomline Technologies and FIS. In order to develop the product, Visa reportedly initially cooperated with the manufacturer of Chain cryptographic systems.

Technical Market Overview:

The ETH/USD pair has moved through the technical resistance at the level of $253.09 and hit the 61% Fibonacci retracement at the level of $264.31. This move up has been made in three waves only, so it will be considered as a corrective for now. The most important level from the Elliott Wave theory now is the top at $247.79 as any violation of this level will invalidate the impulsive scenario.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - $291.72

WR2 - $280.83

WR1 - $249.36

Weekly Pivot Point: $237.71

WS1 - $207.19

WS2 - $196.25

WS3 - $166.76

Trading Recommendations:

The best strategy in the current market conditions is to trade in the direction of the short-term trend, which is still down and the corrective cycle continues. All the local bounces and correction should be treated as another opportunity to open the sell orders for a better price. Please notice, the larger time frame trend is up and there are no signs of any trend reversal, this is only the correction during the up trend.

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Technical analysis of Bitcoin for 13/06/2019:

Crypto Industry News:

Governor of the Central Bank of the Philippines, Benjamin Diokno, warned against the potential use of cryptocurrencies for financing terrorism and stressed that Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) will continue to closely monitor their use in the country, as we read in the local newspaper.

In addition to comments from Diokno, the deputy governor of the BSP, Diwa Guinigundo, reportedly provided further information on the institution's position on cryptocurrencies. Diokno allegedly criticized Bitcoin's potential as a unit of account, a medium of exchange and storage of values, claiming that the volatility of the highest cryptocurrency inhibits its usefulness at all three points.

The governor reportedly found that Blockchain and some DLT technology implementations could be useful for payments and settlements for peer-to-peer transactions, presenting this as a potential risk to the traditional banking sector.

Guinigundo said the central bank is approaching the development of fintech using regulatory sandboxes to offset the potential benefits of innovative financial technologies with robust consumer and investor protection.

Technical Market Overview:

The BTC/USD pair has broken out of the consolidation zone and almost hit the technical resistance located at the level of $8,241. The momentum is increasing, so there is a chance of the move up continuation. The next technical resistance is seen at the level of $8,241 and $8,306. Due to the form of the up move, it is too early to consider this move as a part of an impulsive cycle, it rather looks so far a corrective cycle in wave 4 extension.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - $9,578

WR2 - $9,128

WR1 - $8,319

Weekly Pivot Point: $7,869

WS1 - $7,020

WS2 - $6,556

WS3 - $5,664

Trading Recommendations:

The best strategy in the current market conditions is to trade in the direction of the short-term trend, which is still down and the corrective cycle continues. All the local bounces and correction should be treated as another opportunity to open the sell orders for a better price. Please notice, the larger time frame trend is up and there are no signs of any trend reversal, this is only the correction during the up trend.

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Elliott wave analysis of GBP/JPY for June 13 - 2019

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While EUR/JPY holds bullish tone, GBP/JPY remains under downside pressure. The question remains, whether GBP/JPY needs to make a new low closer to 134.52 to complete wave 2 or wave 2 completed with the test of 136.56. When the new Tory leader is elected, GBP may gain momentum moving higher towards 139.60 and 141.40 as the next minor targets.

A break below support at 136.96 will lead for a dip closer to 134.52, while a direct break above minor resistance at 138.33 will indicate a firm bottom already is in place at 136.56.

R3: 138.65

R2: 138.33

R1: 137.77

Pivot: 137.53

S1: 137.28

S2: 136.96

S3: 136.56

Trading recommendation:

We are long GBP from 137.50 with our stop placed at 136.90.

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Technical analysis of GBP/USD for 13/06/2019:

Technical Market Overview:

The GBP/USD pair continues to trade inside of a narrow range located between the levels of 1.2652-1.2761. It is worth to notice, that the market has made two Pin Bar like candlestick formation around the upper consolidation boundary, which is the level of 1.2761. The momentum is barely holding the neutral fifty level and it looks like is about to go lower as well. The stochastic is in the middle of the range now, so all sum up there is no direct signal regarding the future price move now. The nearest technical resistance is located at the level of 1.2746 and the nearest technical support is seen at the level of 1.2668.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.2954

WR2 - 1.2856

WR1 - 1.2800

Weekly Pivot Point: 1.2708

WS1 - 1.2658

WS2 - 1.2549

WS3 - 1.1502

Trading Recommendations:

The best strategy in the current market conditions is to trade in the direction of the main trend, which is still down. All the local bounces and correction should be treated as another opportunity to open the sell orders for a better price. Please notice, the larger time frame trend is down and there are no signs of any trend reversal.

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for 13/06/2019:

Technical Market Overview:

The EUR/USD pair has broken below the short-term trendline support and violated the technical support at the level of 1.1305 as well. In that situation, the sell-off might accelerate towards the level of 1.1250 or even 1.1224. That move down will be considered as a local pull-back as along as new low is made below 1.1118, so the outlook remains bullish.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.1598

WR2 - 1.1464

WR1 - 1.1422

Weekly Pivot Point: 1.1290

WS1 - 1.1228

WS2 - 1.1091

WS3 - 1.1040

Trading Recommendations:

The best strategy in the current market conditions is to trade in the direction of the main trend, which is now up. All the local pull-backs and corrections should be treated as another opportunity to open the buy orders for a better price. There is a downtrend reversal sign on the weekly time-frame chart, which is why the recent move up might be the beginning of the new uptrend.

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Technical analysis: Important intraday Level For EUR/USD, June 13,2019

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When the European market opens, such economic data as Industrial Production m/m, Italian Quarterly UnemploymentRate, and German Final CPI m/m will be published. The US will release data on 30-year Bond Auction, Natural Gas Storage, Unemployment Claims, and Import Prices m/m. So, amid the reports, EUR/USD will move in a low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL: Breakout BUY Level: 1.1347.Strong Resistance:1.1341.Original Resistance: 1.1330.Inner Sell Area: 1.1319.Target Inner Area: 1.1293. Inner Buy Area: 1.1267.Original Support: 1.1256.Strong Support: 1.1245.Breakout SELL Level: 1.1239.(Disclaimer)

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Technical analysis: Important intraday level for USD/JPY, June 13,2019

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Japan will release the Tertiary Industry Activity m/m, 30-yBond Auction, BSI Manufacturing Index while the US will pusblish such data as 30-year Bond Auction, Natural Gas Storage,Unemployment Claims, Import Prices m/m. So, there is a probability that the USD/JPY pair will move with low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:Resistance.3:108.97.Resistance. 2:108.76.Resistance. 1:108.54.Support. 1:108.32.Support. 2:108.06.Support. 3:107.85.(Disclaimer)

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for June 13 - 2019

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EUR/JPY is building an increasingly bullish structure, after failing to move closer to 123.60. After peaking at 123.07 we have seen EUR/JPY dip just below 122.26 indicating another first and second wave building in red. This means red wave iii of iii will be even strong and more powerful once it takes over.

Red wave ii could move closer to the 61.8% corrective target of red wave i at 121.92 before letting red wave iii take over for the next impulsive rally towards at least 125.28.

Only an unexpected break below 121.29 will invalidate our bullish outlook.

R3: 123.18

R2: 122.83

R1: 122.58

Pivot: 122.39

S1: 121.90

S2: 121.74

S3: 121.29

Trading recommendation:

We are long EUR from 120.75 and we will move our stop to 121.75. IF our stop is hit, we will re-buy EUR upon a break above 122.56.

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Trading plan for EURUSD for June 13, 2019

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Technical outlook:

We have presented the daily chart for EURUSD again to have a bigger picture. There are 4 reasons to believe that EURUSD might continue to drop lower. First, the wave counts suggest that EURUSD might have terminated into Wave 4 of an ending diagonal at 1.1347 levels. The 5th wave could resume lower. Secondly, the bears reacted right around its resistance trend line, which also suggests that the next move could be lower. Thirdly, Fibonacci 0.618 confluence of Wave 3, was also seen around the same zone as 1.1347 levels, which was expected to produce a bearish reaction. Fourth, a bearish evening star candlestick pattern has been produced on the daily chart, which indicates a potential turn lower. To sum up, we would await the bearish potential and remain short against 1.1350 levels for now. If prices fail to penetrate below 1.1200 levels, we shall reevaluate. Keep booking small profit though.

Trading plan:

Remain short, stop above 1.1350 levels, target is lower.

Good luck!

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Forecast for EUR/USD for June 13, 2019

EUR/USD

On Wednesday, the euro fell by 38 points, stopping at the balance line of the four-hour chart. The Marlin oscillator on this graph went deep into the negative zone, moved down on the daily scale. But this is not a signal for a trend reversal itself, only the expected intention of the price, since the Marlin oscillator is one of the leading indicators. The first sign of a reversal is when the price consolidates on the MACD line on a four-hour chart, below the 1.1275 mark. Not far from this mark is the support of the embedded line of the daily price channel (1.1245), the price reversal can come from it, so even a short-term decline in the euro at this stage is premature. In practice, the 1.1245-1.1356 range is still a range of uncertainty. The price output above 1.1356 (Fibonacci level 76.4% on the daily TF) can raise the quote to 1.1444 - to the Fibonacci level 61.8%. Pulling down the price below 1.1245 will allow the price to fall by a smaller distance, about 40 points, to the MACD line of daily scale.

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Forecast for GBP/USD for June 13, 2019

GBP/USD

Yesterday, the pound sterling moved down from the signal level of 1.2762, overcoming of which would be a sign of further growth to the MACD line of the daily scale in the 1.2875 area. The daily Marlin oscillator signal line continues to move along the boundary of growth and decline zones. On the four-hour chart, the price was stuck below the balance indicator line and the Marlin oscillator moved to the decline zone, but in order to further decline you would need to consolidate below the MACD line (1.2664), then a short-term decrease to the target level of 1.2610, which is the low of 15 August 2018, will appear. Overcoming this level creates more reliable conditions for a medium-term decline, the first goal of which will be the level of 1.2530 - a low of December 14, 2018.

Another attempt to increase the price with consolidation above 1.2762 (a high of 7 June) opens up growth prospects to the MACD line of daily scale in the area of 1.2875.

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Forecast for AUD/USD on June 13, 2019

AUD/USD

The Australian dollar predictably and systematically declines to the first target of 0.6900 - support for the embedded line of the price channel of the higher TF. This morning, the Marlin oscillator signal line entered the zone of negative numbers, which increases the likelihood of the price going below the area of 0.6900 and a further decline. It is possible that a retest of the 0.6900 line from below will occur, now as the resistance line, but the 0.6790 target will become the main one.

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Other indicators remain purely "bearish": on the daily chart, the price was stuck below the balance and MACD lines (red and blue, respectively), on the four-hour chart the price is also under both these lines, the Marlin oscillator strengthens its own downward trend.

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GBP/USD near support, a bounce is possible!

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GBPUSD is near support, a bounce to 1st resistance is possible

Entry: 1.2844

Why it's good : 100% Fibonacci extension, 38.2% & 23.6% Fibonacci retracement, horizontal swing low support

Stop Loss : 1.1256

Why it's good :38.2% & 61.8% Fibonacci retracement,100% Fibonacci extension, horizontal swing low support

Take Profit : 1.1342

Why it's good: 100% Fibonacci extension, horizontal swing high resistance

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Fractal analysis of major currency pairs on June 13

Forecast for June 13:

Analytical review of H1-scale currency pairs:

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For the euro / dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.1435, 1.1416, 1.1384, 1.1363, 1.1333, 1.1286, 1.1259 and 1.1214. Here, we continue to monitor the local ascending structure of June 5. The resumption of the upard trend is possible after the breakdown of 1.1333. In this case, the first target is 1.1363. Short-term upward movement is expected in the corridor 1.1363 - 1.1384. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to a pronounced movement. Here, the target is 1.1416. We consider the level 1.1435 to be a potential value to the top. Upon reaching this level, we expect consolidation in the corridor 1.1416 - 1.1435, as well as a rollback to the correction.

Short-term downward movement is possible in the corridor 1.1286 - 1.1259. The breakdown of the latter value will have to form the initial conditions for the downward cycle. Here, the potential target is 1.1214.

The main trend is the local structure for the top of June 5.

Trading recommendations:

Buy 1.1333 Take profit: 1.1363

Buy 1.1386 Take profit: 1.1416

Sell: 1.1284 Take profit: 1.1262

Sell: 1.1257 Take profit: 1.1220

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For the pound / dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.2808, 1.2789, 1.2754, 1.2727, 1.2687, 1.2667 and 1.2633. Here, we continue to follow the development of the upward cycle of May 31. At the moment, the price is in correction and forms the potential for the downward movement of June 7. The continuation of the movement to the top is expected after the breakdown 1.2727. In this case, the goal is 1.2754. Near this level is the price consolidation. Breakdown at 1.2755 should be accompanied by a pronounced upward movement. Here, the goal is 1.2808. Price consolidation is in the corridor 1.2789 - 1.2808 and from here, we expect a rollback to the bottom.

Short-term downward movement is possible in the corridor 1.2687 - 1.2667. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to a prolonged correction. Here, the goal is 1.2633. This level is a key support for the upward structure.

The main trend is the upward cycle of May 31, the formation of the downward potential of June 7.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.2728 Take profit: 1.2752

Buy: 1.2755 Take profit: 1.2787

Sell: 1.2686 Take profit: 1.2668

Sell: 1.2664 Take profit: 1.2638

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For the dollar / franc pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.0059, 1.0033, 0.9995, 0.9965, 0.9930, 0.9908, 0.9884 and 0.9858. Here, we are following the formation of the ascending structure of June 7. Continuation of the movement to the top is expected after the breakdown of 0.9965. In this case, the target is 0.9995. Consolidation is near this level. A breakdown at 0.9997 will lead to the development of a pronounced upward movement. Here, the target is 1.0033. For the potential value to the top, we consider the level of 1.0059. After reaching which, we expect a rollback to the bottom.

Short-term downward movement is possible in the corridor 0.9930 - 0.9908. Hence, there is a high probability of a reversal to the top. A breakdown of the level of 0.9908 will lead to the development of a protracted correction. Here, the target is 0.9884. This level is a key support to the top.

The main trend - the formation of the ascending structure of June 7.

Trading recommendations:

Buy : 0.9965 Take profit: 0.9995

Buy : 0.9997 Take profit: 1.0033

Sell: 0.9930 Take profit: 0.9910

Sell: 0.9906 Take profit: 0.9886

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For the dollar / yen pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are : 109.58, 109.37, 109.01, 108.70, 108.08, 107.76 and 107.35. Here, we mainly expect the development of the ascending structure of June 7. Short-term upward movement is possible in the corridor 108.70 - 109.01. The breakdown of the latter value should be accompanied by a pronounced upward movement. Here, the target is 109.37. Price consolidation is in the corridor 109.37 - 109.58.

Level 108.08 is the key support for the ascending structure. Its price passage will lead to the development of a downward trend. Here, the first target is 107.76. For the potential value at the bottom, we consider the level of 107.35.

The main trend: the formation of potential for the top of June 7.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 108.70 Take profit: 109.00

Buy : 109.03 Take profit: 109.37

Sell: 108.08 Take profit: 107.76

Sell: 107.74 Take profit: 107.37

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For the Canadian dollar / US dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.3451, 1.3424, 1.3370, 1.3350, 1.3304, 1.3277 and 1.3237. Here, we follow the formation of the ascending structure of June 7. Continuation of the development of an upward trend is expected after the price passes the noise range 1.3350 - 1.3370. In this case, the goal is 1.3424. For the potential value to the top, we consider the level of 1.3451. After reaching which, we expect to go into a correction.

Short-term upward movement is possible in the corridor 1.3304 - 1.3277. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to the development of a downward trend. Here, the first potential target is 1.3237.

The main trend - the formation of the ascending structure of June 7.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.3370 Take profit: 1.3424

Buy : 1.3426 Take profit: 1.3450

Sell: 1.3304 Take profit: 1.3280

Sell: 1.3275 Take profit: 1.3240

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For the pair Australian dollar / US dollar key levels on the H1 scale are : 0.6974, 0.6964, 0.6944, 0.6933, 0.6912, 0.6897, 0.6875 and 0.6861. Here, we are following the development of the downward cycle of June 7th. Short-term downward movement is expected in the corridor 0.6912 - 0.6897. The breakdown of the last value should be accompanied by a pronounced upward movement. Here, the target is 0.6875. For the potential value at the bottom, we consider the level of 0.6861. After reaching which, we expect consolidation, as well as rollback to the top.

Short-term upward movement is possible in the corridor 0.6933 - 0.6944. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to a prolonged correction. Here, the target is 0.6964. The range of 0.6964 - 0.6974 is a key support for the downward structure. Before it, we expect the initial conditions for the upward cycle to be formed.

The main trend is the downward cycle of June 7.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 0.6933 Take profit: 0.6944

Buy: 0.6946 Take profit: 0.6964

Sell : 0.6912 Take profit : 0.6898

Sell: 0.6895 Take profit: 0.6875

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For the euro / yen pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 124.10, 123.77, 123.47, 123.06, 122.87, 122.54, 122.31 and 121.98. Here, we continue to monitor the ascending structure of June 3. Continuation of the movement to the top is expected after the price passes the noise range 122.87 - 123.06. In this case, the goal is 123.47. Price consolidation is in the corridor 123.47 - 123.77. For the potential value to the top, we consider the level of 124.10. After reaching which, we expect a departure to the correction.

Short-term downward movement is expected in the corridor 122.54 - 122.31. The breakdown of the last value will lead to a prolonged correction. Here, the goal is 121.98. This level is a key support to the top.

The main trend is the ascending cycle of June 3.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 123.06 Take profit: 123.45

Buy: 123.48 Take profit: 123.75

Sell: 122.54 Take profit: 122.33

Sell: 122.25 Take profit: 122.00

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For the pound / yen pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are : 139.44, 138.98, 138.67, 138.19, 137.47, 137.25, 136.97 and 136.52. Here, we are following the development of the ascending structure of June 4. Continuation of the movement to the top is expected after the breakdown of 138.20. In this case, the goal is 138.67. Short-term upward movement, as well as consolidation is in the corridor 138.67 - 138.98. For the potential value to the top, we consider the level of 139.44. After reaching which, we expect a rollback to the bottom.

Short-term downward movement is expected in the corridor 137.47 - 137.25. The breakdown of the last value will lead to a prolonged correction. Here, the goal is 136.97. This level is a key support to the top.

The main trend is the ascending structure of June 4.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 138.20 Take profit: 138.65

Buy: 138.69 Take profit: 138.96

Sell: 137.47 Take profit: 137.27

Sell: 137.20 Take profit: 136.98

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

AUD/USD Broke Major Support, Potential Further Drop!

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Price broke past its major support where we expect to see a further drop to its next support.

Entry : 0.6939

Why it's good : 23.6% Fibonacci retracement, horizontal pullback resistance

Stop Loss : 0.6963

Why it's good : horizontal pullback resistance

Take Profit : 0.6901

Why it's good : Horizontal overlap support, 78.6% Fibonacci retracement, 61.8% Fibonacci extension

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The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

USD/JPY to test resistance, a drop is possible!

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USDJPY to test key resistance, a drop to 1st support is possible

Entry: 109.012

Why it's good : 61.8% Fibonacci extension, 23.6% Fibonacci retracement, horizontal pullback resistance

Stop Loss : 109.914

Why it's good :50% Fibonacci retracement,horizontal swing high resistance

Take Profit : 107.854

Why it's good: 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, 100% Fibonacci extension, horizontal swing low support

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The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

What to buy on the eve of the summit, the dollar or the euro

Risk appetite on the eve of the G-20 summit may decline, so it is better to pay attention to the yen and sell the dollar and the euro against the Japanese currency. At least, this opinion is shared by BofAML analysts. The bank entered a short position on the EUR/JPY pair as early as last month, when a trade deal between the US and China fell through. On the eve, Bank of America took a short position in USD/JPY.

The risk of a recommendation is that a trade deal can be announced at the summit itself. However, even in this case, the revision by traders of the future actions of Fed officials, implying a softening of the policy, will limit the weakness of the yen.

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Meanwhile, exchange rate volatility is still very low. Markets show calm, but in vain. It looks like a storm is coming to the currency markets.

So, last week the ECB hinted at a willingness to re-launch the incentive program, but market participants preferred not to pay attention to it. The leaders in the race for the prime minister of Great Britain are politicians whose plans are to snatch a country from the EU without any agreements or to paralyze the work of Parliament. At this time, only uncertainty can be seen in the dynamics of sterling, and there is no talk about concern, and especially panic.

Everything would be fine, but Donald Trump enters the scene and claims that the policy of the US central bank harms the country. Stubborn officials led by Jerome Powell do not accept smart advice from the US president about the rate cut. "They don't listen to me," Trump complained.

What is happening implies the flight of investors into defensive assets, but this does not happen. Why? Because the ECB has lost its ability to influence markets, its policy of perpetual monetary stimulus is already perceived as the norm for all major securities, rather than as an anomaly. As for Britain, everyone believes that the British politicians have another aggravation and this will pass.

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A serious reason for nervousness was provided by the owner of the White House. Despite the fact that he regularly allows himself such attacks and plays on market sentiment, his recent tweet against the Fed deserves attention. The fact is that at the end of June, the G20 summit, and trade conflicts are on the agenda. The US president may require his administration to do something that weakens the dollar or force China to strengthen the yuan. And better all together. By the way, on Tuesday, the Chinese currency noticeably strengthened against the dollar after a statement by the local regulator about its intention to hold on Wednesday an intervention of 35 billion yuan.

It is worth noting that the currency is slowly but surely entering the arsenal of a trade war.

The lack of a clear reaction in the market can partly be explained by the fact that the Fed is expected to lower interest rates. However, the situation may worsen after the June summit in Osaka, Japan. Especially if the negotiations on the sidelines of this event will not be entirely successful.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com