Bitcoin analysis for November 27, 2017

analytics5a1c1c0334db6.png

The Bitcoin (BTC) has been trading upwards. The price spiked highher and tested the level of $9,709. A roller-coaster which has long been synonymous with the cryptocurrency markets, is facing a clampdown. Bittrex has emphasized its determination to combat the practice, which persists on several exchanges. In an update to its terms of service, Bittrex reiterated that it takes a dim view of pump and dump schemes, and will suspend accounts found to have been participating in such activity. The technical picture looks bullish but overbought.

Trading recommendations:

According to the 30M time frame, I found an intraday trading range between the price of $9,709 (resistance) and at the price of $9,256. The short-term trend is bearish but due to upward extension, watch for potential selling opportunities today. The downward target is set at the price of $9,256.

Support/Resistance

$9,709 – Intraday resistance (price action)

$9,256 – Intraday support

With InstaForex you can earn on cryptocurrency's movements right now. Just open a deal in your MetaTrader4.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR/USD analysis for November 27, 2017

analytics5a1c145491c6d.png

Recently, the EUR/USD pair has been trading upwards. The price tested the level of 1.1957. According to the 30M time - frame, I found a broken symmetrical triangle, which is a ign that buyers are in control. I also found the price is trading above the intraday pivot (1.1904), which is another sign of strength. My advice is to watch for potential buying opportunties. The upward targets are set at the price of 1.1970 (pivot resistance 1) and at the price of 1.2010.

Resistance levels:

R1: 1.1970

R2: 1.2010

R3: 1.2078

Support levels:

S1: 1.1863

S2: 1.1796

S3: 1.1755

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential buying opportunities.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Global macro overview for 27/11/2017

New Zealand new government's policies will boost GDP, inflation and possibly the OCR. Increased government spending will certainly boost activity, but a decrease of private activity must also be considered. Meanwhile, the Government's plans to cool the housing market and reduce net migration will weigh on the economy next year, so that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will not need to raise interest rates until late 2019.

Last week's data releases highlighted some of the conditions for a slowdown in growth in the near term. Retail spending figures were at the level of modest gain of just 0.2% in the September quarter, after a 1.8% rise in the June quarter. In New Zealand, consumer spending growth tends to be closely correlated with the strength of the housing market. The latest slowdown in retail spending suggests that the relationship is alive and well. House sales are down by about a third from last year's peak, and the double-digit house price growth seen in previous years has given way to a period of quite subdued gains.

Labour's planned fiscal stimulus and minimum wage increases will, on their own, put upward pressure on the OCR. Labour's other policies, including plans for free tertiary study and policies that will dampen the housing market, will weigh on inflation. In terms of fiscal policy, the new political coalition looks set to spend more than the previous Government, only partly funded by an extra tax. Spending will be weighted towards education and health.

Let's now take a look at the NZD/USD technical picture in the H4 time frame. After a bounce from the level of 0.6780, the market is now moving towards the golden channel trend resistance around the level of 0.6910 and if this level is violated, then the next technical resistance is seen at the level of 0.6982. The oversold market conditions support the view.

analytics5a1c0dc51c9f3.jpg

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Global macro overview for 27/11/2017

The last minutes of Friday's trading were not favorable to South African Rand, who became the hostage of messages coming from two of the largest rating agencies. At the end of the week, Standard & Poor's analysts decided to cut the South African debt rating to rubbish, which should be linked primarily to public finances. An additional blow was imposed by Moody's rating agency shifting South Africa to a basket of states that could count on a possible downgrade.

S&P lowered the country's local-currency rating one step to BB+, one level below investment grade, and placed it on a stable outlook. Its assessment of South Africa's foreign-currency debt, which is already considered speculative, was taken down one notch to BB. Moody's opted to keep both readings on Baa3, its lowest investment grade but put them on review for possible downgrade. Moody's added that the review would leave room for it to assess the government's willingness and ability to respond to these rising pressures through growth-supportive fiscal adjustments that raise revenues and contain expenditures.

Let's take a look at the USD/ZAR technical picture at the H4 time frame. At present, Rand is falling by more than 2.0% and it is the weakest component of the Emerging Markets basket. The price has broken below the technical support at the level of 13.7960 and currently is trading below the golden trend line support. The closest key support for USD/ZAR remains at 13.2453.

analytics5a1c0d7a75a56.jpg

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

USD/JPY analysis for November 27, 2017

analytics5a1c078353fe5.png

Recently, the USD/JPY pair has been trading downwards. The price tested the level of 111.09. According to the 30M time - frame, I found a broken bearish flag formation, which is a sign that sellers are in control. I also found a hidden bearish divergence on the moving average oscillator, which is another sign of weakness. The short-term trend is bearish. My advice is to watch for potential selling opportunities. The downward target is set at the price of 110.65 (Fibonacci expansion 61.8%). Key intraday support is set at the price of 111.06.

Resistance levels:

R1: 111.68

R2: 111.87

R3: 112.11

Support levels:

S1: 111.25

S2: 111.00

S3: 111.82

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential selling opportunities.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Trading Plan for EUR/USD and US Dollar Index for November 27, 2017

analytics5a1c02ba3a4e1.jpg

Technical outlook:

The EUR/USD pair has finally pushed through the expected levels, extremely close to 1.1950/75 today. The pair again remained shy of testing its resistance at 1.1975 levels before retracing lower. Please note that there still remains a good probability for a push through the fibonacci convergence at 1.1975, before finally reversing lower again. The wave count also provides enough clarity now as labelled here. The entire drop from 1.2092 levels can be defined as wave 1 or A, while the subsequent rally, which has unfolded into 3 waves a-b-c can be defined as wave 2 or B. If this count holds to be true, the next probable move should be a drop lower towards 1.1480 or lower levels. Please note, that the pair is unfolding into a 3 or 5 wave structure lower from current levels. Prices should now ideally remain below 1.2092 levels, moving forward.

Trading plan:

Please remain short, risk above 1.2092, target 1.1480.

US Dollar Index chart setups:

analytics5a1c04c5f0125.jpg

Technical outlook:

The US Dollar Index chart has followed the proposed wave count to absolute perfection. We have been discussing the possibility of a drop to 92.60 since last several trading sessions which was achieved today. No matter we could not capitalize on the drop completely, now is the opportunity to ride the wave higher. The index seems to have completed wave 1or A, through its rally between 91.00 and 95.00 levels respectively. The subsequent drop is in 3 waves a-b-c, which also looks to be complete now. A classic up gartley was in the making, which looks to be complete at todays' lows. Also note that the pair is finding support from the fibonacci 0.618 levels of the entire rally between 91.00 and 95.00. If the above count holds to be true, the next high probability wave structure looks to be on the north side.

Trading plan:

Please remain long from here, stop at 91.00, target above 98.00.

Fundamental outlook:

No major events are lined up for the day.

Good luck!

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Daily analysis of major pairs for November 27, 2017

EUR/USD: This currency trading instrument went sideways on Monday and Tuesday and then began moving upwards until the end of the week. A minimum of 210 pips has been gained, as price closed above the support line at 1.1900, going towards the resistance line at 1.1950. The resistance line would even be exceeded.

1.png

USD/CHF: The USD/CHF was forced to go downwards last week, owing to the buying pressure in the EUR/USD. Price went downwards to test the support level at 0.9800. This week, further downwards movement is possible, especially as long as the EUR/USD experiences buying pressure. Therefore, the support levels at 0.9750 and 0.9700 could be reached.

2.png

GBP/USD: The GBP/USD sent upwards gradually last week until there is a bullish bias on the market. The market can continue going upwards, reaching the distribution territories 1.3350 and 1.3400. On the other hand, the market can begin to go downwards somewhere in December, for the outlook on GBP pair is strongly bearish for that month.

3.png

USD/JPY: The USD/JPY pair is bearish. Price went downwards by 100 pips last week, closing on a bearish note. There is a Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the market, and it is possible that the demand level at 111.00 would be tested again. However, a rally is expected before the end of this week.

4.png

EUR/JPY: This cross is bullish in the short-term, but neutral in the long-term. After testing the demand zone at 131.50, the market went upwards by 170 pips, closing above the demand zone at 133.00. Since the outlook on the JPY pair is bullish for this week (and owing to the stamina in EUR itself), it is expected that the price would continue going upwards.

5.png

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of EUR/USD for November 27, 2017

EURUSDH4.png

Overview:

  • The EUR/USD pair broke resistance which turned to strong support at the level of 1.1908. However, the major support is seen at the price of 1.1870. The level of 1.1870 coincides with the ratio of 78.6% of Fibonacci, which is expected to act as major support today. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is considered overbought because it is above 70. The RSI is still signaling that the trend is upward as it is still strong above the moving average (100). This suggests the pair will probably go up in coming hours. Accordingly, the market is likely to show signs of a bullish trend. In other words, buy orders are recommended above 1.1908 with the first target at the level of 1.1953. From this point, the pair is likely to begin an ascending movement to the point of 1.2014 and further to the level of 1.2053. The level of 1.2053 will act as strong resistance. On the other hand, if a breakout happens at the support level of 1.1870, then this scenario may become invalidated.
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

NZD/USD Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for November 27, 2017

analytics5a1bef8e6f8b5.png

Daily Outlook

A recent bullish breakout above the downtrend line took place on May 22. Since then, the market has been bullish as depicted on the chart.

This resulted in a quick bullish advance towards next price zones around 0.7150-0.7230 (Key-Zone) and 0.7310-0.7380 which was temporarily breached to the upside.

Recent bearish pullback was executed towards the price zone of 0.7310-0.7380 (newly-established demand-zone) which failed to offer enough bullish support for the NZD/USD pair.

Re-consolidation below the price level of 0.7300 enhanced the bearish side of the market. This brought the NZD/USD pair again towards 0.7230-0.7150 (Key-Zone) which failed to pause the ongoing bearish momentum.

An atypical Head and Shoulders pattern was expressed on the depicted chart indicating high probability of bearish reversal as long as bearish persistence below the neckline 0.7150 is maintained.

As expected, the price level of 0.7050 failed to offer enough bullish support for the NZD/USD pair. That's why, further bearish decline was expected towards 0.6800 (Reversal pattern bearish target).

If the recent low (0.6817) remains defended by the bulls, a bullish pullback can be expected towards 0.7050 provided that bullish pullback persists above 0.6970 ( Intraday Key-level ).

Otherwise, further bearish decline would be expected towards 0.6680.

Trade recommendations:

If the recent bullish pullback persists towards 0.7050, a valid SELL entry can be offered around there.

S/L should be placed above 0.7100. T/P levels to be placed at 0.6970, 0.6900 and 0.6830.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of GBP/USD for November 27, 2017

GBPUSDDaily.png

Overview:

  • The GBP/USD pair is still trading upwards above the levels of 1.3017 and 1.3200. The first support level is currently seen at 1.3017. The trend is still set above the level of 1.3017 and 1.3200 for that the price is moving in a bullish channel now. Furthermore, the price has been set above the strong support at the level of 1.3017, which coincides with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. This support has been rejected three times confirming the veracity of an uptrend. According to the previous events, we expect the GBP/USD pair to trade between 1.3100 and 1.3655. So, the support is seen at 1.3017, while daily resistance is found at 1.3298. Therefore, the market is likely to show signs of a bullish trend around the spot of 1.3017/1.3200. In other words, buy orders are recommended above the zone of 1.30171.3200 with the first target at the level of 1.3298; and continue towards 1.3655 in coming days. On the other hand, if the GBP/USD pair fails to break through the resistance level of 1.3298 today, the market will decline further to 1.2820.
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for November 27, 2017

analytics5a1bee5d77360.png

Monthly Outlook

In January 2015, the EUR/USD pair moved below the major demand levels near 1.2050-1.2100 (multiple previous bottoms set in July 2012 and June 2010). Hence, a long-term bearish target was projected toward 0.9450.

In March 2015, EUR/USD bears challenged the monthly demand level around 1.0500, which had been previously reached in August 1997.

In the longer term, the level of 0.9450 remains a projected target if any monthly candlestick achieves bearish closure below the depicted monthly demand level of 1.0500.

However, the EUR/USD pair has been trapped within the depicted consolidation range (1.0500-1.1450) until the current bullish breakout was executed above 1.1450.

The current bullish breakout above 1.1450 allowed a quick bullish advance towards 1.2100 where recent evidence of bearish rejection was expressed (Note the previous Monthly candlestick of September).

analytics5a1bee6865dd9.png

Daily Outlook

In January 2017, the previous downtrend was reversed when the Inverted Head and Shoulders pattern was established around 1.0500. Since then, evident bullish momentum has been expressed on the chart.

As anticipated, the ongoing bullish momentum allowed the EUR/USD pair to pursue further bullish advance towards 1.1415-1.1520 (Previous Daily Supply-Zone).

The daily supply zone failed to pause the ongoing bullish momentum. Instead, evident bullish breakout was expressed towards the price level of 1.2100 where the depicted Head and Shoulders reversal pattern was expressed.

If the recent bearish breakout persists below 1.1700 (Neckline of the reversal pattern), a quick bearish decline should be expected towards the price zone of 1.1415-1.1520 (Initial targets for the depicted H&S pattern).

Bearish target for the depicted Head and Shoulders pattern extends towards 1.1350. However, to pursue towards the mentioned target level, significant bearish pressure is needed to be applied against the mentioned zone (1.1415-1.1520).

However, recent price action around the price zone of 1.1520-1.1415 indicated evident bullish recovery. This hinders further bearish decline as long as the recent low around 1.1550 remains unbroken.

Trade Recommendations

The current price levels around 1.1900-1.1950 should be watched for a possible short-term SELL entry if signs of bearish rejection are expressed.

S/L should be placed above 1.2030. T/P levels to be located at 1.1850, 1.1700 and 1.1590.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Trading plan for 27/11/2017

On Monday, the US Dollar is slightly stronger against the main currencies except for JPY, although moves remain small compared to the downtrend before the weekend. Asian indices go back due to the falling market in China. Crude Oil is in pull-back, Gold remains in place.

On Monday 27th of November, the event calendar is very light in important news releases as there is only New Home Sales data from the US scheduled for release in the afternoon.

EUR/USD analysis for 27/11/2017:

This pair is rising this morning in the direction of 1.20. A series of impressive data on economic activity in Euroland is a good foundation for growth. The market also took on the potential political risk in Germany, as the specter of repeated elections was dismissed, but the chances of repeating the "Great Coalition" increased. The only obstacle to breaking the 1.20 is the ECB, which this autumn several times activated itself when the course wandered so high. Controlled "leaks" of ECB members' dissatisfaction with the excess of EUR strength may hit the market at any time and put the buyer's foot.

Factors on the US Dollar side have little chance to improve its position. A clear sell-off before Thanksgiving was additionally fueled by a dovish tone of FOMC minutes. Of major publications, GDP revision, PCE Core and ISM Manufacturing are scheduled for the second part of the week. Also, the early voting in the US Senate will no longer take place, and the voting period may be full of information about the problems of meeting with sufficient support.

Let's now take a look at the EUR/USD technical picture in the H4 time frame. The market has finally closed the small gap around the level of 1.1945 and now the rally's momentum is diminishing as the bearish divergence is visible at this time frame. The next support is seen at the level of 1.1880 and 1.1856.

analytics5a1be27b4a6f2.jpg

Market Snapshot: Crude Oil hits 127% Fibo extension

The price of Crude Oil has hit the 127$ Fibonacci extension of the previous leg down at the level of 58.77 and pulled back towards the golden channel trend line support. The market conditions are clearly overbought and the nearest support is seen at the level of 58.15.

analytics5a1be28d5110c.jpg

Market Snapshot: DAX about the break out to the downside?

The price of German DAX index is still developing the Head & Shoulders pattern where the right shoulder is about to complete. In this situation, the price should break out below the dashed black trend line and head towards the technical support at the level of 12.911 and the neckline around the level of 12,849.

analytics5a1be2a2696ab.jpg

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Bitcoin analysis for 27/11/2017

The Philippines Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has announced that it is considering steps to legalize the use of digital currency by classifying them as securities. This idea is a consequence of the recent issuance by regulators of regulations on cryptanalysts such as Bitcoin. At the end of November 2017 at the press conference, SEC Commissioner Emilio Aquino stated that, to dispel any legal uncertainty, the agency plans to classify virtual currencies as securities:"We are aiming to qualify the so-called virtual currency offerings as securities to which the Securities Regulatory Code will be applied. Increasing popularity of ICO projects prompts the authorities to establish new consumer protection rules."

The Commissioner also stated that the agency bases its directives on existing legislation implemented by its counterparts in the US, Malaysia, Thailand and Hong Kong. According to Aquino, the SEC also discusses the approval and licensing of digital currency, which will be monitored by the Central Bank of the country - Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP). He added that the Central Bank has already registered five or six companies that will act as cryptocurrency exchanges. Meanwhile, BSP Governor Nestor Espenilla Jr said that the Central Bank would be willing to tackle financial technology problems (fintech), such as digital currency. Moreover, deputy director of the BSP, Melchor Plabasan, said that Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies are both money and investment instruments that are very profitable and risky to control.

Let's now take a look at the Bitcoin technical picture in the H4 time frame. The market is trading the extended wave five extensions of the wave five, so it means it is very mature and might reverse/pullback any time now. The next target is the psychological round number of $10,000 where the correction is expected. The H4 time frame target zone is between the levels of $10,000 - $10.090 and the daily time frame Fibo cluster is the area between the levels of $10,145 - $10,241.

analytics5a1bd69385e4e.jpg

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of USD/JPY for November 27, 2017

USDJPYM30.png

USD/JPY is expected to trade with a bearish outlook. The pair has continued to grind lower after marking a low of 111.04 last Thursday (November 23). Currently, as shown on a 30-minute chart, it is supported by the ascending 20-period moving average, which stays below the 50-period one. Meanwhile, the relative strength index sink below the neutrality level of 50, showing a lack of upward momentum for the pair.

As the intraday outlook has turned bearish, the pair is expected to work its way back to 110.80 on the downside. Key support is located at 111.70,

Alternatively, if the price moves in the opposite direction, a long position is recommended above 111.65 with a target at 111.95.

Chart Explanation: The black line shows the pivot point. The current price above the pivot point indicates a bullish position, while the price below the pivot point is a signal for a short position. The red lines show the support levels and the green line indicates the resistance level. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Strategy: SELL, Stop Loss: 111.70, Take Profit: 110.80

Resistance levels: 111.95, 112.40 and 112.70 Support Levels: 110.80, 110.65, 110.30

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of USD/CHF for November 27, 2017

USDCHFM30.png

Our first targets which we predicted in the previous analysis has been hit. The pair remains under pressure below the key resistance at 0.9825, which should limit any upward attempts. Both the 20-period and 50-period moving averages are turning down, and should continue to push the prices lower. Last but not least, the relative strength index lacks upward momentum.

In which case, as long as 0.9825 is not surpassed, likely decline to 0.9765 and 0.9735 in extension.

Chart Explanation: The black line shows the pivot point. The present price above the pivot point indicates a bullish position, and the price below the pivot points indicates a short position. The red lines show the support levels and the green line indicates the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Strategy: SELL, Stop Loss: 0.9825, Take Profit: 0.9765

Resistance levels: 0.9845, 0.9870, and 0.9900

Support levels: 0.9765, 0.9735, and 0.9700

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of GBP/JPY for November 27, 2017

GBPJPYM30.png

GBP/JPY is expected to trade with a bearish bias below 148.90. The pair is heading downward now, backed by its declining 20-period and 50-period moving averages. The process of higher highs and lows remains intact, which should confirm a bearish view. In addition, the relative strength index is below its neutrality area at 50.

To sum up, as long as 148.90 is not broken, look for a new decline to 147.80 and 148.90 in extension.

Alternatively, if the price moves in the direction opposite to the forecast, a long position is recommended above 148.90 with the target at 149.20.

Strategy: SELL, Stop Loss: 148.90, Take Profit: 147.80

Chart Explanation: the black line shows the pivot point. The price above the pivot point indicates long positions; and when it is below the pivot points, it indicates short positions. The red lines show the support levels and the green line indicates the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Resistance levels: 149.20, 149.45, and 150.00

Support levels: 147.80, 147.60, and 147.00

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Ichimoku indicator analysis of USDX for November 27, 2017

The Dollar index has reached our short-term target area and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at 92.50. I expect a reversal from current levels to the upside. However we have still not seen any reversal sign.

analytics5a1bc85511940.png

Green rectangle - support area (broken)

Red rectangle - target area (reached)

The Dollar index has finally reached our short-term target. Trend is bearish as price remains below the 4 hour Kumo (cloud). Support is at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at 92.50 while resistance is at 93.40 and next at 93.90.

analytics5a1bc8a9e6177.png

The Dollar index has entered the Ichimoku cloud area in the daily chart. A daily close below the cloud will be a bearish sign. Trend is neutral but very close to turning bearish again on a daily basis. I expect the Dollar index to bounce from the cloud support. Important Daily resistance at 94.10. Break above it and we could see more than just a bounce in the Dollar.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Ichimoku indicator analysis of gold for November 27, 2017

Gold price is in a short-term bullish trend as price is above the 4-hour Ichimoku cloud and is making higher highs and higher lows. Price is steadily moving higher but on very slow pace. The form of the price rise has an overlapping price structure which suggests that this upward move is not impulsive.

analytics5a1bc75aea477.png

Blue lines - bullish channel

Gold price is trading at $1,291.50 above both the tenkan- and kijun-sen indicators. Price made an important low late October around $1,260 and ever since it is mainly moving sideways as price has not yet broken above the October high of $1,305. Support is at $1,281. Breaking below that level will push price towards $1,270-$1,260 and eventually towards our short-term target of $1,250-45. Resistance is at $1,299-$1,305.

analytics5a1bc7d107264.png

On a daily basis Gold price is testing the lower boundary of the Ichimoku cloud. Support is on Friday's low and resistance at $1,294-95. A rejection here will increase the chances of my bearish short-term scenario for a move towards $1,250 before the resumption of the up trend.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Trading Plan 11/27- 12/01/2017

Trading Plan 11/27- 12/01/2017

The general picture: Bitcoin broke through the ceiling, the euro rose and there is news this week.

The focus of investors, of course, was on bitcoin. In the weekend, bitcoin rose by 20%, an unbelievable rally . Ruthlessly shortstopped - well, and rightly so, to climb on selling on such a schedule - this is for the common folk.

On Monday morning, the price of bitcoin was at 9700 dollars.

If it is serious- it is necessary to shortstop. Before the reversal, there will first be a strong pullback downward - not less than $ 2,000. There are many who want to buy, they will buy and drag bitcoin into "last growth." And here one can start to sell gently, not far from the highs - but with a not very distant stop behind the high - and it's better to start the first selling for a high, but with a short stop.

EURUSD: Our recommendations were not ill-advised - you can lock in the profits right now.

The Euro will probably continue to grow, but now it is very likely to rollback.

Buy euro from 1.1865

On Tuesday at 2.00 pm London time, Jerome Powell, the future head of the Federal Reserve, will speak at a hearing in the Senate Banking Committee.

On Wednesday, the report "The Beige Book" of the Fed (at 6.00 PM London time) and US GDP at 12.30 PM London time will be published.

GBPUSD:

Buy for a breakthrough of 1.3360

analytics5a1bbc585e946.jpg

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Breaking forecast 11.27.2017

Breaking forecast 11.27.2017

The euro is ready to continue its growth, but a rollback is highly probable.

German Chancellor Merkel with an iron hand extinguished the political crisis: The main opposition- the SPD party- is ready to support the Merkel government. The issue of new elections is at least postponed for a long time.

In the world economy and in the EU economy everything is still positive. The Fed has no desire to accelerate the rate hike - therefore there is no reason for the dollar's strengthening.

The euro keeps its growth potential. Still, there has already been a significant increase (on the morning of Monday, the price of EURUSD is at 1.1930) - ahead of a significant resistance zone 1.2050 - 1.2100 - there is high probability of a rollback.

Buy euros from a rollback of 1.1865 and below.

analytics5a1bb8e77aefb.jpg

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for November 27, 2017

analytics5a1bae9f8a2a5.png

Wave summary:

Our preferred count remains that the rally from 1.7157 is corrective and soon should tune lower again. We continue to expect that the former top at 1.7408 will cap the upside for a break below minor support at 1.7276 confirming renewed downside pressure towards 1.7136 and below here confirms a deeper corrective decline towards 1.6619 before the next impulsive rally towards 1.8000 takes over.

R3: 1.7467

R2: 1.7418

R1: 1.7408

Pivot: 1.7276

S1: 1.7234

S2: 1.7136

S3: 1.7100

Trading recommendation:

We are short EUR from 1.7200 with our stop placed at 1.7415.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for November 27, 2017

analytics5a1bad2435922.png

Wave summary:

The corrective rally from 131.14 has extended beyond the expected target at 132.47. This larger corrective rally does not change our preferred view that more downside pressure remains expected in wave (E). That said, the requirement for this count to remain the top count is, that resistance at 133.89 continues to cap the upside for a break below minor support at 132.11 and more importantly below support at 131.14 that calls for a decline towards 123.43 in wave (E).

R3: 134.50

R2: 133.87

R1: 133.34

Pivot: 132.35

S1: 132.11

S2: 131.61

S3: 131.14

Trading recommendation:

Our break-even stop at 133.10 has been hit. We will look for a new selling opportunity at 133.25 with a stop at 134.00.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of NZD/USD for November 25, 2017

NZDUSDM30.png

NZD/USD is expected to trade with bearish bias below 0.6880. The pair failed to break above its key resistance at 0.6880 and is now turning down. A bearish cross has been identified between the 20-period and 50-period moving averages, which should confirm a negative outlook. Last but not least, the relative strength index has broken below its neutrality area at 50.

In these perspectives, as long as 0.6880 holds on the upside, look for a new pullback to 0.6820 and 0.6805 in extension.

The black line shows the pivot point. Currently, the price is above the pivot point, which indicates long positions. If it remains below the pivot point, it will indicate short positions. The red lines are showing the support levels and the green line is indicating the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Resistance levels: 0.6895, 0.6905, and 0.6950

Support levels: 0.6820, 0.6805, and 0.6770

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of EUR/USD for Nov 27, 2017

EURUSD.jpg

When the European market opens, there is no Economic Data will be released but the US will release the Economic Data, too, such as New Home Sales, so, amid the reports, EUR/USD will move in a low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:

Breakout BUY Level: 1.1973.

Strong Resistance:1.1966.

Original Resistance: 1.1954.

Inner Sell Area: 1.1942.

Target Inner Area: 1.1914.

Inner Buy Area: 1.1886.

Original Support: 1.1874.

Strong Support: 1.1862.

Breakout SELL Level: 1.1855.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of USD/JPY for Nov 27, 2017

USDJPY.jpg

In Asia, Japan will release the SPPI y/y data, and the US will release some Economic Data, such as New Home Sales. So, there is a probability the USD/JPY will move with a low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:

Resistance. 3: 111.95.

Resistance. 2: 111.73.

Resistance. 1: 111.51.

Support. 1: 111.25.

Support. 2: 111.03.

Support. 3: 110.81.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

AUD/USD testing major resistance, time to start selling

PThe price is testing major resistance at 0.7629 (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap resistance, channel resistance, Fibonacci extension) and we expect to see a strong drop from this level to push the price down to at least 0.7537 support (Fibonacci extension, horizontal swing low support).

Stochastic (55,3,1) is seeing strong resistance at 96% where we expect a corresponding reaction off.

Correlation analysis: NZDUSD is similarly expecting a strong drop.

Sell below 0.7629. Stop loss isat 0.7670. Take profit is at 0.7537

analytics5a1b80b5cf354.png

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP/USD testing major resistance, time to start selling

The price is now testing major resistance at 1.3340 (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap resistance, bearish divergence) and we expect to see a major drop from here towards 1.3050 support (Fibonacci extension, horizontal swing low support).

Stochastic (55,3,1) also sees major resistance at 96% and there's bearish divergence signaling that a reversal is impending.

Sell below 1.3340. Stop loss is at 1.3467. Take profit is at 1.3050.

analytics5a1b80561f378.png

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Daily analysis of USDX for November 27, 2017

The index remains under pressure below the 200 SMA at H1 chart and the support level of 92.70 still holds across the board, favoring to a lower low pattern formation. If that level gives up, then the next leg lower should extend towards the 91.85 level. However, if USDX manages to rebound at the current stage, then the next target should be the 200 SMA, at which lies the resistance zone of 93.60.

USDXH1.png

H1 chart's resistance levels: 93.60 / 93.98

H1 chart's support levels: 92.70 / 91.85

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place sell (short) orders only if the USD Index breaks with a bearish candlestick; the support level is at 92.70, take profit is at 91.85 and stop loss is at 93.53.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Daily analysis of GBP/USD for November 27, 2017

The pair rallied during Friday's session despite thin liquidity due to the holidays in the United States. According to the H1 chart, GBP/USD tested the resistance zone of 1.3360 and our take profit was activated around that area. If that level gets broken by the price action, the next target should be the 1.3440 level. MACD indicator is entering the negative territory, calling for further downside.

GBPUSDH1.png

H1 chart's resistance levels: 1.3360 / 1.3440

H1 chart's support levels: 1.3244 / 1.3143

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, buy (long) orders only if the GBP/USD pair breaks a bullish candlestick; the resistance level is at 1.3360, take profit is at 1.3440 and stop loss is at 1.3280.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Harsh everyday life of the trumponomy

The US dollar finished the week with a decline and without compelling reasons to resume growth.

Published on Wednesday, the FOMC protocols should not have had a significant impact on the quotes but the markets nevertheless drew attention to the fact that the topic of low inflation in the discussion of current policies caused increased concern on the Cabinet leadership. The same conclusion was confirmed by Janet Yellen in one of her last speeches as the head of the Fed. She said that there are doubts among FOMC members that low inflation is temporary.

Weak consumer activity was confirmed in the report on orders for durable goods for the month of October. Instead of the projected growth of 0.3%, there was a fall of 1.2%. By Friday, the markets was in a state of confusion. It could be expected that the closing of the week will contribute to the demand for the dollar but the IFO report on Germany led to a sharp increase in the euro with business sentiment growing more than expected. The report published yesterday showed that GDP growth in the euro area could rise to 2.3% which may eventually stimulate the ECB to take more active measures to normalize monetary policy.

Activity in the US is slowing down. The PMI composite index for Markit declined in November to 54.6p. This is a 4-month low. The growth in activity in the services sector and in the manufacturing sector has also slowed.

analytics5a190e1a20950.png

Trumpomania, which recently created a positive mood in the US economy, is clearly starting to slip. The time of expectations is over and the harsh routine begins. The Fed's policy aimed at gradual normalization should be based on a growing economy but the market does not yet see stable growth signals, except perhaps in the labor market. However, the record low unemployment does not contribute to the growth of purchasing activity. Wage growth is not enough to create the prerequisites for inflation which in the end, may cast doubt on the ability of the Fed to withstand the schedule.

On Wednesday, the second preliminary estimate for US GDP growth in the third quarter will be published. Experts are optimistic and predict a revision from 3.0% to 3.2%. The dollar, in turn, can receive the long-awaited support. Also, the price index for Q3 is expected to be revised from 2.1% to 2.2%. Meanwhile, the index of personal consumption expenditure is of special interest and a revision of it in any direction can push the dollar into motion.

On Thursday, data on real spending on personal consumption for the month of October will be published and positive dynamics is absolutely necessary here. The forecasts are rather pessimistic. It is expected that expenses will grow by 0.3% with a relative to growth by 1% in September. The revenues are expected to grow by 0.3% against 0.4% a month earlier. The slowdown will have a negative effect since it will further reduce inflation expectations and put the Fed in a difficult position, as justifying the rate hike in December will not be easy.

The key day is Friday. Markets traditionally focus on business activity indices from ISM and record growth in recent months contributed to the growth in demand for the dollar. In addition, stock markets have updated to historical highs but Markit shows a completely different picture and therefore the slowdown of indices from ISM is becoming more and more likely.

Thanksgiving Day prevented the release of the weekly CFTC report. The release was postponed to Monday and this time, the attention to it will be high. The last 6 weeks dynamics in the mood of long-term investors was in favor of the dollar, which allowed us to count on its growth. However, the prolonged period of weak inflation can contribute to a change in sentiment. If on Monday, the report shows a slowdown in demand for the dollar, especially against the defensive currencies, this will signal further growth for the yen and the euro against the dollar and significantly complicate the bullish mood.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Euro confidently took the chance

Eurozone

The German business climate index from IFO rose in November to a new record high of 117.5%, provoking a sharp demand for the euro and questioning the market turn in favor of the dollar, which finally began to take shape in recent weeks. A new record is set in the production sector, the trade index is just below the historical record, and expectations in the long term of six months remain confidently positive.

analytics5a191f912ece7.png

At the same time, it should be noted that this result may not accurately reflect the real picture, since 90% of the responses were received even before the failure of negotiations on the formation of the German coalition became known.

Against the backdrop of positive reports from IFO and PMI Markit, it is logical to expect that consumer activity in the eurozone is also increasing. On Tuesday, the Gfk report will be published, the September 10.7 points is expected to be exceeded, which in the end will support the euro, as it will increase the chances for inflation. On Wednesday, the European Commission will present its outlook for economic optimism, and the culmination of the week may be Friday, when preliminary inflation data will be published in November. Forecasts are more than favorable, growth to 1.6% is forecasted against 1.4% a month earlier, and the release of data, no worse than expectations, will allow the euro to gain a foothold above 1.20 and test the September high for strength.

United Kingdom

Pound positions look weaker. The consumer confidence index from Gfk is close to the four-year lows and on Thursday, the data for November will come out, and according to forecasts the index will drop from -10p to -11p. The volume of mortgage lending at are annual lows, which indicates a low level of income.

On Friday, the PMI Markit report will be published. Despite the fact that the index is in the confidently positive zone, it still lags behind the similar index for the eurozone, which increases the chances of the euro to rise against the pound.

analytics5a191fa18e9b8.png

In fact, the only significant factor supporting the pound is the expectation that the Bank of England will continue to raise rates based on high inflation, but these expectations can gradually disappear, since inflation is unlikely to continue to rise against the backdrop of weak household incomes and a drop in consumer confidence.

The Brexit factor has now come to the back burner, as the parties are holding consultations before the meeting on December 14-15. The pound, despite attempts at growth, does not look like a favorite against the dollar, and the resistance level of 1.3400 has a chance to hold, and by the end of next week there are grounds to expect a turn of GBPUSD to the downward direction with the purpose of the next testing of support 1.30.

Oil

On Wednesday, November 29, the next OPEC meeting will begin, which will have to consolidate the cartel's unified position towards OPEC + startup talks this weekend, which will extend the deal to cut production. By the evening of Friday, oil prices began to rise again, with the Brent was fixed above 63 dollars per barrel on the background of rumors that Russia and Saudi Arabia in general agreed on a plan to extend the agreement until the end of next year, and only technical issues remained.

There were news that Russia was proposing a new formula for calculating production volumes, which would link the size of the reduction to the state of the oil market. If these rumors are confirmed, as a result, they will have a noticeable positive impact on quotes, since they will reduce the subjective factors that are the basis for negotiations each time and translate regulation into an understandable language of figures.

Positive expectations will contribute to the demand for oil, which is able to update the high of November and consolidate above the results of the week above $ 66/bpd.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com