Technical analysis of USD/CHF for August 09, 2017

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USD/CHF is under pressure and expected to trade in a lower range. The technical outlook of the pair is bearish as the price recorded lower tops and lower bottoms since August 3. The declining 50-period moving average is playing a resistance role. The relative strength index is below its neutrality level at 50.

To conclude, as long as 0.9705 holds on the upside, a new drop to 0.9595 and even to 0.9565 seems more likely to occur.

Chart Explanation: The black line shows the pivot point. The present price above the pivot point indicates the bullish position and below the pivot points indicates the short position. The red lines show the support levels and the green line indicates the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Strategy: SELL, Stop Loss: 0.9705, Take Profit: 0.9595

Resistance levels: 0.9735, 0.9770, and 0.9795

Support levels: 0.9695, 0.9565, and 0.9525

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Technical analysis of GBP/JPY for August 09, 2017

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All our targets which we predicted in yesterday's analysis has been hit. GBPJPY is under pressure and expected to continue its downside movement. The pair broke below its former key support at 143.65, which becomes a key resistance now, and consolidated on the downside. The relative strength index is bearish below its 30% level and lacks upward momentum. The descending 20-period and 50-period moving averages are playing resistance roles and maintain the downside bias.

As long as 143.65 holds on the upside, look for a further drop towards 141.90 and even 141.25 in extension.

Alternatively, if the price moves in the opposite direction as predicted, a long position is recommended above 143.65 with the target at 144.15.

Strategy: SELL, Stop Loss: 143.65, Take Profit: 143.35.

Chart Explanation: the black line shows the pivot point. The price above the pivot point indicates the bullish position and when it is below the pivot points, it indicates a short position. The red lines show the support levels and the green line indicates the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Resistance levels: 144.15, 144.70, and 145.25

Support levels: 141.90, 141.25, and 140.65.

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Fundamental Analysis of AUD/USD for August 9, 2017

AUD/USD has been quite bearish recently after surging up higher towards 0.8050 resistance area. After the stronger US economic data published recently, AUD has lost its ground significantly. As of the recent geopolitical tension between the US and North Korea, there are higher chances of further weakness in AUD as well. Today AUD Westpac Consumer Sentiment report was published with negative value at -1.2% which previously was at 0.4%, Home Loans report was published with decreased value at 0.5% from the previous value of 1.1% which was expected to increase to 1.5% and RBA Assistant Governor Kent spoke about nation's key interest rates and future policies which were quite dovish in nature. Today AUD economic reports were quite negative which lead to further weakness of the currency against USD. On the other hand, today USD Prelim Non-Farm Productivity report is going to be published which is expected to show an increase to 0.7% from the previous value of 0.0%, Prelim Unit Labor Cost is expected to decrease to 1.1% from the previous value of 2.2%, Final Wholesale Inventories report is expected to be unchanged at 0.6% and Crude Oil Inventories report is expected to show a greater deficit to -2.6M which previously was at -1.5M. To sum up, after gaining consistently for several days AUD is currently showing some weakness due to bad economic reports and bad economic condition which is expected to lead to further gain on the USD but with some correction along the way.

Now let us look at the technical view, the price is currently residing above the support area of 0.7750-0.7840 with a rejection off the dynamic level of 20 EMA as well. The bearish move along the way was quite corrective and volatile which signal the strength of bears are not quite impulsive in nature and the bullish trend is expected to continue after a certain retracement along the way. As the price remains above the support area of 0.7750-0.7840 the bullish bias is expected continue further with a target towards 0.8050. On the other hand, if the price breaks below 0.7750 support level with a daily close then we will be looking forward to bearish move with a target towards 0.7630 area.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for NZD/USD for August 9, 2017

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Daily Outlook

The NZD/USD pair has been trending up within the depicted bullish channel since January 2016.

In November 2016, early signs of bullish weakness were expressed on the chart when the pair failed to record a new high above 0.7400.

A bearish breakout of the lower limit of the channel took place in December 2016.

In February 2017, the depicted short-term downtrend was initiated in the depicted supply zone (0.7310-0.7380).

However, a recent bullish breakout above the downtrend line took place on May 22. Since then, the market has been bullish as depicted on the chart.

The price zone of 0.7150-0.7230 (the key zone) stood as a temporary resistance zone until a bullish breakout was expressed above 0.7230.

This resulted in a quick advance towards the next supply zone around 0.7310-0.7380 which is temporarily breached to the upside.

Now the price zone of 0.7310-0.7380 turns to be a newly-established demand-zone to be watched for possible bullish rejection and a possible BUY entry. S/L should be placed below 0.7300.

On the other hand, re-consolidation below the price level of 0.7300 brings the EUR/USD pair again towards 0.7230-0.7150 (the key zone) where the price action should be watched for further decisions.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for August 9, 2017

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Monthly Outlook

In January 2015, the EUR/USD pair moved below the major demand levels near 1.2100 (multiple previous bottoms set in July 2012 and June 2010). Hence, a long-term bearish target was projected toward 0.9450.

In March 2015, EUR/USD bears challenged the monthly demand level around 1.0500, which had been previously reached in August 1997.

In the longer term, the level of 0.9450 remains a projected target if any monthly candlestick achieves bearish closure below the depicted monthly demand level of 1.0500.

However, the EUR/USD pair was trapped within the depicted consolidation range (1.0500-1.1450) until the current bullish breakout was executed above 1.1450.

The current bullish breakout above 1.1450 allows a quick advance towards 1.1850 and 1.2000-1.2100 where the price action should be watched for evident bearish rejection and a valid SELL Entry.

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Daily Outlook

In January 2017, the previous downtrend reversed when the Head and Shoulders pattern was established around 1.0500. Since then, evident bullish momentum has been expressed on the chart.

As anticipated, the ongoing bullish momentum allowed the EUR/USD pair to pursue further advance towards 1.1415-1.1520 (daily supply zone).

The daily supply zone failed to pause the ongoing bullish momentum. Instead, evident bullish breakout is being witnessed on the chart. The nearest supply level to meet the pair is located around 1.2080 (the level of previous multiple bottoms) where the price action should be watched carefully.

On the other hand, the price zone of 1.1415-1.1520 stands as a prominent DEMAND zone to be watched during the current bearish pullback.

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Fundamental analysis of USD/CAD for August 9, 2017

CAD has been broadly stronger after the rate hike. The USD/CAD dipped below 1.2500 support area, bouncing from 1.30 resistance level. Recently USD has gained over CAD with positive economic reports like the NFP, Average Earnings and Unemployment rate. The bullish momentum is expected to last for certain period and then CAD is expected to take over again with the bearish pressure in this pair as the BOC actions and market sentiment are still in favor of CAD. Today the Housing Starts report from Canada is going to be published which is expected to decrease to 204k from the previous figure of 213k. Besides, the Building Permits report is expected to be negative at -1.8% from the previous positive value of 8.9%. On the USD side, today the Prelim Nonfarm Productivity is expected to rise to 0.7% from the previous value of 0.0%. At the same time, the Prelim Unit Labor Cost is expected to decrease to 1.1% from the previous value of 2.2%, and the Final Wholesale Inventories report is expected to be unchanged at 0.6%. Furthermore, the Crude Oil Inventories report is expected to have greater deficit at -2.6M from the previous figure of -1.5M. To sum up, CAD is currently expected to show more weakness because of the economic forecasts and the current market sentiment, whereas USD is expected to have an upper hand over CAD and gain further. The Bank of Canada is still hawkish as well as the long-term market sentiment of the currency so If Canada's report comes out positive and better than expected, then we might see CAD gaining over USD again with an impulsive momentum in the coming days.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price is currently correcting itself at the edge of 1.2700 resistance level and with some bullish rejection along the way signals the bearish presence in the market off the level which is expected to lead to further bearish momentum in this pair with target towards 1.2450 support area in the coming days. As the price remains below 1.2700, the bearish bias is expected to continue further

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GBP/USD analysis for August 09, 2017

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Recently, the GBP/USD pair has been trading upwards. The price tested the level of 1.3028. According to the 30M time frame, I found a broken bearish flag in the background, which is a sign that buying looks risky. I also found a flip from bullish to bearish on the RSI oscilator, which is another sign of weakness. My advice is to watch for potential selling opportunities. The downward targets are set at the price of 1.2950 and 1.2900.

Resistance levels:

R1: 1.3050

R2: 1.3100

R3: 1.3150

Support levels:

S1: 1.2950

S2: 1.2900

S3: 1.2840

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential selling opportunities.

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Daily analysis of major pairs for August 9, 2017

EUR/USD: In spite of the consolidation that has been witnessed in this market so far, the bullish bias remains valid. A movement of about 200 pips to the downside would result in a bearish bias, while a movement of about 100 pips from here would emphasize the extant bullish bias.

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USD/CHF: Ironically, USD/CHF is also bullish, in what can be called a rare positive correlation with EUR/USD. The bullishness was brought about by the strength in CHF, which may be ended as CHF gathers stamina. Right now, there is a Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the market, which would soon be emphasized further or invalided as the USD/CHF goes into a negative correlation with the EUR/USD.

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GBP/USD: A clean bearish signal has been generated on the Cable, following the weakness that started last week. The EMA 11 is below the EMA 56, as the RSI with period 14 goes below the level 50. The price has dropped by 100 pips this week, almost testing the accumulation territory at 1.2950. The accumulation territory would soon be breached to the downside as the price goes towards another accumulation territory at 1.2900.

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USD/JPY: This pair moved lower on Tuesday, proving that the weak rally that was witnessed on Monday was only an opportunity to sell at better prices. There is a Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the 4-hour chart; plus the RSI with period 14 is below the level 50. Bears are looking forwards to pushing the price towards the demand level at 110.00 (which may even be exceeded as the price goes further downwards).

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EUR/JPY: After a long period of hesitation – about three weeks – a new bearish signal was generated on EUR/JPY. The price dropped by more than 100 pips yesterday, going below the supply zone at 129.50. The next targets for bears are the demand zones at 129.00 and 128.50, which may be tested before the end of this week.

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EUR/JPY analysis for August 09, 2017

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Recently, the EUR/JPY has been trading downwards. As I expected, the price reached the level of 128.41 (yesterday's target). Anyway, according to the 4h time frame, I am still expecting lower price but to confirm further lower price I would like to see a breakout of support at 128.48. If the price breaks the support, watch for potential selling opportunities. The downward targets are set at the price of 126.60 and 125.00.

Resistance levels:

R1: 130.50

R2: 131.30

R3: 131.80

Support levels:

S1: 129.20

S2: 128.70

S3: 127.90

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential selling opportunities.

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Trading Plan for EUR/USD and GBP/USD for August 09, 2017

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Technical outlook:

A short term setup was discussed yesterday and EUR/USD has reacted well towards the direction. The pair has almost achieved its projected downside targets as seen here. Maybe it is working out a triangle labelled as wave iv, and that a final thrust lower is expected around 1.1700 levels before it pulls back higher again. Please note that EUR/USD might have already print a meaningful high at 1.1910 and that any pullbacks now should be viewed as opportunities to sell again towards the short term trend developed. Furthermore, also keep in mind that the larger story discussed in the beginning of this month is still intact and that we are presenting short term trade setups towards the same. Support is seen below 1.1700 levels while strong resistance is at 1.1910 levels respectively.

Trading plan:

Please consider taking profits on short taken last week at 1.1700 (partial or complete). We shall find fresh short entries going forward.

GBPUSD chart setups:

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Technical outlook:

A short term hourly chart has been again presented here to trap the last leg lower maybe today. GBPUSD has reacted well to resistance and wave analysis as labeled above. The pair still seems to be working out on the last drop lower towards 1.2900/30 levels, which is also falling in line with the next price support seen at 1.2930 levels as shown on chart view here. Bears are still targeting lower at least through 1.2930 levels before producing a meaningful pullback higher. Please note that all rallies from here would be nominated as counter trends and that they are great opportunities to add or trade fresh shorts. In line with the bigger picture presented last week, the first short term down leg seems to be completed shortly at 1.2900/30 levels and it should give way to a counter trend towards possible 1.3060 or 1.3140 levels.

Trading plan:

Please look to take short term profits on positions taken last week at 1.2900/40 levels.

Fundamental outlook:

Except Crude Oil Inventories no major news today. New Zealand rate decision would be out early morning August 10, 2017.

Good luck!

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for August 09, 2017

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All our targets which we predicted yesterday have been hit. NZD/USD is still under pressure and expected to trade in lower range. The pair recorded lower tops and lower bottoms since August 4, which confirmed a negative outlook. The downward momentum is further reinforced by the declining 50-period moving average. The relative strength index is mixed with bearish bias.

Hence, as long as 0.7350 is not surpassed, look for a further drop to 0.7290 and even to 0.7270 in extension.

Chart Explanation:

The black line shows the pivot point. Currently, the price is above the pivot point which indicates the bullish position. If it remains below the pivot point, it will indicate the short position. The red lines show the support levels and the green line indicates the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Resistance levels: 0.7370, 0.7390, and 0.7420

Support levels: 0.7290, 0.7270, and 0.7245

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Global macro overview for 09/08/2017

Global macro overview for 09/08/2017:

Swiss Franc and Japanese Yen will be the main beneficiary as North Korea tensions are rising. The overnight developments are not looking good for the whole world as North Korea refuses to negotiate and threatens the US with "Severe Nuclear Lesson" after the United Nations Security Council voted unanimously 15-0 to impose $1 billion in sanctions on North Korea exports. In a written statement handed to reporters on the sidelines of a regional security forum in Manila, North Korean Foreign Minister Ri Yong Ho said the regime had developed nuclear weapons as a legitimate option for self-defense "in the face of a clear and real nuclear threat posed by the U.S". President Donald Trump warned North Korea about facing "fire and fury" if the regime nation makes more threats to the United States.

In this global uncertainty situation, the risk off sentiment was broadly pervasive through the currency markets with two currencies to gain the most: Swiss Franc and Japanese Yen. The US Dollar weakened against the yen, which is often sought in times of geopolitical tension. If the current sentiment prevails, JPY and CHF will broadly gain across the board, together with Gold and Silver

Let's now take a look at the EUR/CHF technical picture at the daily timeframe. The current reaction is very negative as the CHF is broadly appreciating against the Euro. The EUR/CHF moved very sharply to 1.1300 as the rate has already fallen to 1.3% today. The next technical support is seen at the level of 1.1198 and 1.1128.

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Trading plan for 08/09/2017

Trading plan for 08/09/2017

The general picture: Correction, uncertainty.

Trump frightened the markets.

In the market. The lack of important news on the economy. Developed countries the height of holidays, even Merkel, who has elections in a month, and that on vacation.

The main events on the economy will begin in the last week of August, with the meeting of the heads of the largest securities in Jackson Hole, Wyoming.

But then, Mr. Trump actually delivered an ultimatum to North Korea, promising her "shock and awe." Trump said that the United States would respond with a blow to new attempts to threaten a blow to the United States. According to US intelligence reports, Kim Jong-un's regime has a ready-made ballistic missile capable of flying to the US (two launches have been conducted), and is already preparing a miniature nuclear bomb that can be mounted on a rocket. Trump guaranteed that he would not tolerate a threat to the United States from North Korea.

In fact, this means that the new launch of the intercontinental missile by North Korea or a new nuclear test makes the US attack on North Korea very likely.

It would also be very necessary for Trump to be inside-politically: Trump lost to his opponents on all fronts, failed all his promises - the wall on the border with Mexico, the trade barriers against China, to force Europe to pay for NATO, to introduce a new medical insurance program, to solve the Putin problem etc.

But a blow to North Korea can return Trump the image of a "real man", especially the US president's authority to strike outside of the United States is not limited.

The markets, of course, were frightened. The US market retreated from new highs.

EURUSD

Consolidation, as promised.

We stand on sale, our stop and a coup upstairs at 1.1825. You can aggressively buy from 1.1750 and below (the trend is not canceled yet), it's more conservative to wait for 1.1825.

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Global macro overview for 09/08/2017

Global macro overview for 09/08/2017:

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand will make a decision regarding the interest rate tonight. Market participants expect the official cash rate to stay unchanged at the level of 1.75% and this decision should exert pressure on NZD. Due to deterioration in data and the currency strength, the risk lies with the softening of the language of the official statement. Recently, the FX market has been focused on selling USD and for this reason, NZD/USD may not be prepared for dovish signals from the central bank (even after the last reversal towards 0.7300 level).

New Zealand's economic picture has deteriorated since the RBNZ's latest revision of its forecasts in May. While business and consumer sentiment indicators remain solid, quarterly labor market reports and prices have disappointed. While the unemployment rate in the second quarter fell to an eight-year minimum of 4.8%, it was a decline in the participation rate that neutralized unexpected drop in employment. Moreover, the CPI reading for the second quarter disappointed: 1.7% on a yearly basis versus 2.1% that was assumed by the RBNZ in May forecasts. Spring price hike as a result of extraordinary events has already expired. In addition, the NZD trade weighted exchange rate remains at an elevated level, higher than the June RBNZ meeting and over 2% above the RBNZ forecast at the end of September. In the official statement, the RBNZ may highlight the last weakness in the data, as well as the bank's dissatisfaction with a sharp appreciation of the currency. Even if it is primarily due to the weakening of the USD, there is a high risk that the RBNZ will decide on a more verbal intervention. CPI forecasts for 2017 should be slightly lower, although the bank will likely keep the path for the OCR rate, where the 25 bp increase is not planned earlier than in the second half of 2019. As a result, the dovish tone of the statement will likely cause a sell-off in NZD across the board.

Let's now take a look at the NZD/USD technical picture at the H4 timeframe ahead of the RBNZ interest rate decision. The market trades in oversold conditions below 61%Fibo and below technical support at the level of 0.7333. The next technical support is seen at the level of 0.7261 and the next important resistance lies at 0.7390.

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Trading plan for 09/08/2017

Trading plan for 09/08/2017:

On the FX market, we can witness an escape from risk after yesterdays US-North Korea confrontation. The defensive currencies are CHF (+0.6%) and JPY (+0.3%), while the risky currencies are AUD (-0.4%), NOK (-0.25%) or CAD (-0.18%). The Asian stock market is shining all in red, Crude Oil is losing gains, and precious metals like Gold and Silver are rallying.

On Wednesday 9th of August, the event calendar is quite busy with important economic releases, but only during the US session, when the Housing Starts and Building Permits data from Canada will be released. Then the US economy will release Prelim Unit Labor Costs data, Prelim Nonfarm Productivity data and Crude Oil Inventories. During the very early Asian session, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will decide on interest rates.

EUR/USD analysis for 09/08/2017:

The Unit Labour Costs data is scheduled for release at 12:30 pm GMT and market participants expect a drop in the second quarter from 2.2% to 1.2%. The labour costs are a key input for inflation, so if forecast sees wage inflation slipping to a 1.2% annual rate, the recent comments from FOMC member Bullard might be adequate. He said on Monday that the recent inflation data has surprised to the downside and call into question the idea that the US inflation is reliably returning toward the target.The current level of the policy rate is likely to remain appropriate over the near term, he added. Not every Fed official agrees with Bullard's point of view, but if today's data meets the expectations, then his point of view might not be easily dismissed. The further confirmation will come with the Friday's July report on consumer and producer inflation in the US.

Let's now take a look at the EUR/USD technical picture on the H4 timeframe. The market has tested the recent technical support at the level of 1.1728, but none of the candles closed below this level so far. The momentum indicator is moving lower into the negative territory and market conditions are starting to look oversold a little. Nevertheless, there is still a room for a further move down to the level of 1.1612 if the data disappoints market participants.

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Market Snapshot: Gold breaks out above the trend line

The price of gold has broken above the golden trend line resistance around the level of 1,265 and the stochastic indicator is bouncing from the oversold levels. If the momentum will prevail, then the next target for bulls would be at the level of 1,275, where the recent 78%Fibo retracement of the previous swing down is. A breakout higher opens the road towards the swing highs at the level of 1,296.

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Market Snapshot: SPY retreats from highs

After making new all-time high at the level of 248.87, the SPY (S&P500 ETF) reversed to the downside and violated the technical support at the level of 247.98. This nervous reaction was likely caused by US-North Korea confrontation and in a case this conflict escalates further, more of sudden and deep sell-off might be expected. The next technical support is seen at the level of 245.72.

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The dollar goes on the offensive

The US dollar against the backdrop of growing risks begins a long-awaited turn. The NFIB index of business optimism in small businesses rose in July to 105.2p against 103.6p a month earlier, positive expectations clearly outweighed, with the index currently at 10-year highs.

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The consumer optimism index from IBD / TIPP shows similar data. The growth from August to 52.2p against July 50.2p also turned out to be a surprise for experts who are expecting a more modest result. Also in favor of the rise in optimism, the growth of open vacancies in the US labor market in June is higher than expected, which is confirmed by forecasts of a steady increase in employment.

However, economic indicators did not play a major role in the growth of the demand for the dollar. Instead, in the foreground was the comments on the leadership of the Fed.

The head of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, James Bullard, said on Monday that the current level of short-term rates is quite suitable to expectations, their increase is not yet appropriate, and it might seem that Bullard's position looks too soft. However, for a number of other key parameters, he gave a very aggressive remark. In particular, he confirmed the policy of further reducing unemployment, and also announced the improvement of the dollar's position as the world reserve currency. In fact, Bullard's words implied that the depreciation of the dollar is not based on objective factors of the state of the US economy, but instead on expectations of the tightening of monetary policy from the ECB.

Bullard's colleague Neil Kashkari, head of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, gave a similar comment - the current rate is quite appropriate, inflation is low, but it does not cause concern, and the Fed should begin a quantitative tightening program in September. A week earlier, a similar position was expressed by the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, John Williams. In his opinion, we should begin the program to reduce the Fed's balance sheet this fall.

In this manner, there are three voting members of the Fed, with two being the most evident "doves", who have expressed their readiness to launch a program to reduce the balance sheet. The message is completely clear - there will be no rate reduction in September, but a quantitative tightening will begin.

It should be noted that the Fed's sale of the assets will not lead to a reduction in the balance sheet. Since it is necessary to simultaneously reduce the liabilities. It is apparent that in order to reduce the amount of cash in the economy or weaken the requirements for mandatory reserves of commercial banks, the Fed would choose not to. Therefore, the only way to achieve the desired result is to reduce the volume of deposits of commercial banks. In other words, along with the launch of the asset reduction program, the Fed must also submit a method for trimming the rate on surplus funds of commercial banks, which currently accounts for half of all the liabilities of the Fed.

The announcement of the launch of this process could bring about serious movements in the financial markets and heightened tension. To prevent negative developments, an alternative to "parking" more than $ 2.2 trillion from the accounts of the Fed is needed, and such an alternative may well be the launch of a reindustrialization program. Hence, a simple conclusion, along with the decision of the FRS, Trump will submit to the Congress a draft tax reform, which will be adopted. To which, as a result, according to the idea, will then create a powerful mechanism for inflow of investments from around the world.

On Thursday, there will be data on producer prices, while on Friday - on consumer inflation in July. Judging by the dynamics of the yields of TIPS bonds, the fall in prices is suspended and investors can expect inflation to rise.

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The negative might occur on Thursday, when the report on the state of the budget in July will be published. However, investors apparently no longer want to pay attention to such trifles. The US is preparing to include a "dollar vacuum cleaner" - a mechanism for returning money to the country. What it will lead to, would be easy to predict - towards a strong growth of risks, especially in developing countries, demand for defensive assets and the US dollar.

The trend to strengthen the commodity currencies will be completed, the yen, the franc and the dollar will appear in the favorites.

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NZD/USD Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for August 8, 2017

Forex analysis review
NZD/USD Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for August 8, 2017

Prepare to sell EUR/USD on break of major support

Price has started to show the first signs of a major bearish reversal by breaking out of our ascending channel. However, we prepare to sell only if the price manages to close below 1.1750 support (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap support) which would trigger a bearish move for a drop to at least 1.1500 support (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap support, big figure).

RSI (34) sees intermediate support at 50% and only a break of this level would correspondingly trigger a bearish move on EUR/USD.

Sell below 1.1750. Set stop loss at 1.1854 and take profit at 1.1500.

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AUD/USD remains bearish for a further drop

Price has dropped perfectly from our selling area yesterday. We remain bearish looking to sell on strength below 0.7931 resistance (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap resistance) for a further push down to 0.7875 support (Fibonacci extension, horizontal swing low support). We also shift our stop loss to 0.7950 to protect our running profits.

RSI (34) sees a descending resistance line holding our bearish momentum really nicely.

Sell below 0.7931. Set stop loss at 0.7950 and take profit at 0.7875.

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NZD/USD is on major support, remain bullish

Price is right on the major support at 0.7325 (multiple Fibonacci extensions, horizontal swing low support, channel support) and we expect to see a bounce above this level for a push up to at least 0.7389 resistance (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal pullback resistance).

Stochastic is seeing the major support at 8% signalling that a short term correction is fast approaching.

Buy above 0.7325. Set stop loss at 0.7305 and take profit at 0.7389.

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EUR/JPY right on major support, remain bullish for a corrective bounce

Price has continued to drop from yesterday. We're now at the major support level of 129.55 (Fibonacci extension, horizontal swing low support, bullish price action) and we expect to see an intermediate corrective bounce above this level for the price to rise to at least 130.07 resistance (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal pullback resistance).

Stochastic (34,5,3) is seeing the strong support above 7.3% and we expect to witness a corresponding bounce above this level.

Correlation analysis: We are seeing JPY weakness across the board with bounces expected on EURJPY, AUDJPY and USDJPY

Buy above 129.55. Set stop loss at 129.34 and take profit at 130.07.

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AUD/JPY approaching major support, prepare to buy

Price has continued to drop strongly since yesterday. The key now is to wait for a major support level to buy from. We see the major support at 87.04 (multiple Fibonacci extensions) and expect to witness a short term corrective bounce above this level to at least 87.52 resistance (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal pullback resistance).

Stochastic (34,5,3) is seeing a major support at 3.7% where we expect a corresponding bounce from.

Correlation analysis: We are see JPY weakness across the board with bounces expected on EURJPY, AUDJPY and USDJPY.

Buy above 87.04. Set stop loss at 86.85 and take profit at 87.52.

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USD/JPY approaching major support, prepare to buy

Price has continued to drop since yesterday. We prepare to buy above 109.92 support (Fibonacci extension, horizontal swing low support) for a push up to at least 111.00 resistance (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal swing high resistance).

RSI (34) sees bullish divergence and also an ascending support line holds it up nicely.

Correlation analysis: We are seeing JPY weakness across the board with bounces expected on EURJPY, AUDJPY and USDJPY.

Buy above 109.92. Set stop loss at 109.61 and take profit at 111.00.

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Daily analysis of USDX for August 09, 2017

The index gained momentum during yesterday's session following positive data in the United States. Currently, it's headed to test the resistance level of 94.00 at which could happen a breakout that could open the doors to test the 94.42 level. To the downside, we're facing a support offered by the 200 SMA at H1 chart, which is the last hurdle before to reach the key level of 92.80.

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H1 chart's resistance levels: 94.00 / 94.47

H1 chart's support levels: 93.25 / 92.80

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place buy (long) orders only if the USD Index breaks with a bullish candlestick; the resistance level is at 94.00, take profit is at 94.47 and stop loss is at 93.55.

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Daily analysis of GBP/USD for August 09, 2017

The pair had a weak session during Tuesday as it consolidated the price action below the resistance zone of 1.2955. If GBP/USD manages to rebound over the support level of 1.2955, it can test the mentioned resistance, but the focus is now on the south, where a break below 1.2955 should expose the level of 1.2897. MACD indicator remains supporting the bearish scenario.

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H1 chart's resistance levels: 1.3021 / 1.3080

H1 chart's support levels: 1.2955 / 1.2897

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, sell (short) orders only if the GBP/USD pair breaks a bearish candlestick; the support level is at 1.2955, take profit is at 1.2867 and stop loss is at 1.3011.

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for August 09, 2017

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Overview:

  • The NZD/USD pair continues to move downwards from the price of 0.7421. The pair dropped from the level of 0.7421 (this level of 0.7421 coincides with the ratio of 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level) to the bottom around 0.7350. There are no changes in my technical outlook. The bias remains bearish in nearest term testing 0.7285 or higher. Today, the first resistance level is seen at 0.7421 followed by 0.7481, while daily support 1 is seen at 0.7337. According to the previous events, the NZD/USD pair is still moving between the levels of 0.7379 and 0.7285; for that, we expect a range of 94 pips (0.7379 - 0.7285). If the NZD/USD pair fails to break through the resistance level of 0.7421, the market will decline further to 0.7285. This would suggest a bearish market because the RSI indicator is still in a positive area and does not show any trend-reversal signs. The pair is expected to drop lower towards at least 0.7285 with a view to testing the weekly support 2. On the contrary, if a breakout takes place at the resistance level of 0.7421, then this scenario may become invalidated.
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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for August 09, 2017

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Overview:

  • The USD/CHF pair continues to move upwards from the level of 0.9693. There are no changes in my technical outlook. The bias remains bullish in nearest term testing 0.9800 or higher. The market has been trading around the spot of 0.9693 since last week. The pair rose from the level of 0.9693 (the level of 0.9693 coincides with a ratio of 78.6% Fibonacci retracement) to a top around 0.9733. The first support level is seen at 0.9693 followed by 0.9639, while daily resistance 1 is seen at 0.9763. According to the previous events, the USD/CHF pair is still moving between the levels of 0.9693 and 0.9763; for that, we expect a large range in coming hours.
  • On the 1-hour chart, immediate resistance is seen at 0.9763 which coincides with the double top. Currently, the price is moving in a bullish channel. This is confirmed by the RSI indicator signaling that we are still in a bullish trending market. The price is still above the moving average (100). Therefore, if the trend is able to break out through the first resistance level of 0.9763, we should see the pair climbing towards the second daily resistance at 0.9800 to test it.
  • It would also be wise to consider where to place stop loss; this should be set below the second support 0.9639. Overall, the trend is still calling for a strong bullish market as long as the trend is still above the spot of 0.9693 and 0.9639.
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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for Aug 09, 2017

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In Asia, Japan will release the Prelim Machine Tool Orders y/y and M2 Money Stock y/y data, and the US will release some Economic Data, such as 10-y Bond Auction, Crude Oil Inventories, Final Wholesale Inventories m/m, Prelim Unit Labor Costs q/q, and Prelim Nonfarm Productivity q/q. So, there is a probability the USD/JPY will move with low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:

Resistance. 3: 110.68.

Resistance. 2: 110.46.

Resistance. 1: 110.24.

Support. 1: 109.98.

Support. 2: 109.76.

Support. 3: 109.54.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for Aug 09, 2017

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When the European market opens, some Economic Data will be released, such as Italian Industrial Production m/m. The US will release the Economic Data, too, such as 10-y Bond Auction, Crude Oil Inventories, Final Wholesale Inventories m/m, Prelim Unit Labor Costs q/q, and Prelim Nonfarm Productivity q/q, so, amid the reports, EUR/USD will move in a low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:

Breakout BUY Level: 1.1806.

Strong Resistance:1.1799.

Original Resistance: 1.1788.

Inner Sell Area: 1.1777.

Target Inner Area: 1.1749.

Inner Buy Area: 1.1721.

Original Support: 1.1710.

Strong Support: 1.1699.

Breakout SELL Level: 1.1692.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of EUR/USD for August 9, 2017

As we said in our previous post the topping process for EUR/USD is over. As everyone was waiting for the pair to get to 1.20, now everyone was bullish...but the wedge pattern broke to the downside confirming the trend reversal.

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Purple lines - bearish wedge

The price is about to break the 4-hour Kumo (cloud) support. The price is making lower lows and lower highs. Short-term resistance is at 1.1820 and support is at 1.17. My target remains between 1.1550-1.14. EUR/USD is in a corrective phase that is expected to push price towards the lower channel boundaries.

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Blue lines - bullish channel

On a daily basis the bearish divergence by the oscillators combined with the break out of the wedge pattern and the daily close below the tenkan-sen (red line indicator), implies that we have started a counter trend move lower. The target is the 15.50-1.14 area. The longer-term trend remains bullish.

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Technical analysis of USDCAD for August 9, 2017

The USD/CAD remains in a bullish trend since we last posted an analysis about it looking for 1.28. It looks highly possible to catch that price level soon.

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Red lines bullish channel

The USD/CAD is clearly in a bullish short-term trend. Price is above the cloud and inside the bullish channel where we see higher highs and higher lows. Short-term support is at 1.2650 while resistance is at 1.28.

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In a bigger time frame, the USD/CAD is making a counter trend bounce. Since 1.24-1.25 I have been calling for a bounce towards 1.28 where we find the 38% Fibonacci retracement. Price could even bounce higher towards 1.30 but for now, our goal is 1.28. There is no bearish divergence on the daily chart so we assume that after a stop at 1.28 we could expect a pull back.

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Ichimoku indicator analysis of USDX for August 9, 2017

The Dollar index is in a process of reversing its medium-term bearish trend and is going to push to higher levels. Short-term trend has changed to bullish and I continue to believe that a strong Dollar bounce is what we currently see at its early stages.

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In the 4-hour chart, the Dollar index has broken out of the Ichimoku cloud. However strong resistance is found in the short-term at 93.80. Short-term support is at 93.20 where the kijun-sen is found. The trend is bullish as the price is making higher highs and higher lows.

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As mentioned in previous posts, the weekly reversal hammer in the Dollar index needs confirmation this week. So far the following candle of the current week supports the bullish weekly reversal in the index. I remain bullish the Dollar.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Ichimoku indicator analysis of gold for August 9, 2017

Gold price has reached very close to our minimum pull back to target and daily Kumo (cloud) support at $1,250 as expected and is bouncing. Price remains trapped inside the short-term bearish channel and short term trend remains neutral or slightly bearish. The longer-term view remains bullish.

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Red lines - bearish channel

Gold price is trading inside the Kumo. The trend is neutral. Short-term support is at $1,249 (38% Fibonacci retracement). Resistance is at $1,257.

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On a daily basis, we have seen price back test the broken daily cloud. Price is now bouncing but is below the tenkan-sen. However, I believe we could still see a move lower to re-test the cloud before the next upwards move. A break above $1,273 will cancel any move lower.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Oil approached the line of demarcation

After the rapid July rally, the oil market enters a state of consolidation. Encouraged by the decline in US stocks over a period of seven of the past eight weeks by a total of 21 million barrels, the bulls are confident at the current levels, but new buyers are not in a hurry to join the uptrend, as rumors are circulating in the market that the level of $ 50 for the barrel by WTI is a kind of demarcation line. Above it, producers from the States will actively hedge supplies for 2018. Citigroup warns its customers that they have already begun to do so.

By the end of the week, hedge funds had increased their net long positions for the Texan brand by 18%, to 282,362 contracts, which is the highest mark in more than three months. Net lows for Brent grew at the fastest rate (+53 777 contracts) from December as positive news from the US and OPEC arrived.

Dynamics of WTI and speculative positions on oil

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Source: Bloomberg.

Along with the reduction in US stocks, support for black gold is provided by information on the reduction in Saudi Arabia's supplies to its Asian customers. Riyadh begins to fulfill its commitment to reduce exports in St. Petersburg, wishing to set an example for the rest. In this respect, the meeting of representatives of the cartel at the end of the week by August 11 gives hope for a change in the situation for the better. According to the International Energy Agency, June OPEC lowered extraction only 78% of the set volume Viennese contract that is "bear" factor for Brent and WTI. It is possible that after Abu Dhabi, the situation will change for the better.

Optimism "bulls" for oil attached a weak dollar and a reduction in drilling rigs from Baker Hughes. "American" has consistently failed to regain a positive GDP for the second quarter and a strong statistics on employment in July. In the market, there are rumors that the end of September, under pressure from problem debt ceiling, he will not be able to grow. Fans of the currency remained hope for release of inflation data, but if the market turned a deaf ear, the USD index drop could accelerate that will provide invaluable assistance to Brent and WTI.

At the same time, American inventories fell by less than on July 28, analysts expected Reuters, which somewhat stifled the fervor of buyers, and China imported the smallest volume of black gold in July in the last 6 months. Thus, there is a hidden negative the market, which can become a reason for a rollback in case of an unpleasant surprise from the US Energy Information Administration. According to forecasts of Bloomberg experts, by the end of the five-day period by August 4, reserves will decrease by 2.1 million barrels.

Technically, Brent entered the consolidation range of $ 51-52.9 per barrel. Without an exit of quotations for its limits, it is very difficult to talk about restoring an uptrend or correction. The nearest support levels are near the $ 51.7, $ 51.05 and $ 50.1 marks.

Brent, daily chart

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