Technical analysis of USD/JPY for September 30, 2015

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UUSD/JPY is expected to trade with a bullish bias.Overnight, US stocks showed signs of stabilization with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising 0.3% to 16049 and the S&P 500 gaining 0.1% to 1884. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq Composite was 0.6% down landing at 4517. Nymex crude prices added 1.7% to $45.23 a barrel, while gold was 0.4% down to $1,127 an ounce. The 10-year Treasury yield dropped further to 2.056% from 2.093% in the previous session. Meanwhile the US dollar weakened against other most major currencies as investors were waiting for Friday's employments reports and speeches of the Federal Reserve's officials later this week. EUR/USD rebounded to as high as 1.1267 from a session low of 1.1192, and AUD/USD ran to as high as 0.7023 from a low of 0.6934. On the other hand, the Canadian dollar kept dropping against the US dollar with USD/CAD rising as high as 1.3458, which is the highest level since June 2004. The pair remains on the upside after breaking above the upper boundary of a bearish channel. With the help of support provided by the 20- and 50-period intraday moving averages (MAs), it is approaching the first upside target at 120.45 (yesterday's high). The intraday relative indicator (RSI) is well directed with the buying area between 50 and 70, calling for a new upleg. The second upside target is set at 120.65 (around the high of September 28).

Trading recommendations:

The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a wider range as long as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price holds above its pivot point, long positions are recommended with the first target at 120.45 and the second target at 120.65. In the alternative scenario, short positions are recommended with the first target at 119.35 if the price moves below its pivot points. A break of this target is likely to push the pair further downwards, and one may expect the second target at 119.20. The pivot point is at 119.75.

Resistance levels: 120.45 120.65 120.95

Support levels: 119.50 119.20 118.70

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EUR/NZD: analysis for September 30, 2015

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Overview:

Recently, EUR/NZD has been moving downwards. As we expected, the price tested the level of 1.7461. In the daily time frame, we can observe a supply bar in an average volume. The intraday trend is downward. According to the M15 chart, we can see successful rejection from yesterday's point of control at the level of 1.7720. Watch for potential selling opportunities after retracement. A potential target zone is seen around 1.7450 (currently on the test)-1.7330.

Fibonacci Pivot Points :

Resistance levels:

R1: 1.7860

R2: 1.7945

R3: 1.8080

Support levels:

S1: 1.7580

S2: 1.7495

S3: 1.7355

Trading recommendations: Be careful when buying and watch for potential selling opportunities.

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for September 30, 2015

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USD/CHF is expected to trade with a bullish bias. The pair is trading above its rising 20-period and 50-period MAs, which are supporting the price. In addition, a support base was formed around 1.3385, which should limit the downside potential. The RSI is around its neutrality level of 50 lacking downward momentum. As long as 0.9695 acts as support, look for an opportunity to move further upside to 0.9790 and even 0.9820.

Trading recommendations:

The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a wider range as long as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price holds above its pivot point, long positions are recommended with the first target at 0.9790 and the second target at 0.9820. In the alternative scenario, short positions are recommended with the first target at 0.9665 if the price moves below its pivot points. A break of this target is likely to push the pair further downwards, and one may expect the second target at 0.9640. The pivot point is at 0.9695.

Resistance levels: 0.9790 0.9820 0.9895

Support levels: 0.9665 0.9640 0.9615

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Gold : analysis for September 30 , 2015

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Overview:

Since our last analysis, gold has been trading downwards. As we expected, the price tested the level of $1,112.86. An intraday trend is downward, so watch only for selling opportunities after retracement. In the daily time frame, we can observe a supply bar in an average volume. In the M15 time frame, we can observe a successful rejection from a point in the control zone ($1,126.80). According to the daily price action, we broke the support level at $1,121.50 and the nest support level is seen at $1,102.00. Today, we got control point at the level of $1,124.90.

Daily Fibonacci pivot points :

Resistance levels

R1: 1,132.45

R2: 1,134.85

R3: 1,138.70

Support levels:

S1: 1,124.75

S2: 1,122.35

S3: 1,118.50

Trading recommendations: Be careful when buying gold at this stage and watch for potential selling opportunities after retracement.

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for September 30, 2015

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NZD/USD is expected to consolidate and then, rise. The pair holds above its nearest support at 0.6320, and seems likely to post further consolidation. Nevertheless, the 50-period intraday MA still plays a support role, and may limit any downside room. Besides, the intraday RSI is turning up from its neutrality level at 50. Therefore, as long as 0.6320 is not broken, look for further advance to 0.6395 and 0.6425 after a limited consolidation.

Trading recommendations:

The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a wider range as long as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price holds above its pivot point, long positions are recommended with the first target at 0.6395 and the second target at 0.6425. In the alternative scenario, short positions are recommended with the first target at 0.6285 if the price moves below its pivot points. A break of this target is likely to push the pair further downwards, and one may expect the second target at 0.6260. The pivot point is at 0.6320.

Resistance levels: 0.6395 0.6425 0.6455

Support levels: 0.6285 0.6260 0.6236

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for September 30, 2015

Technical outlook and chart setups:

The NZD/USD pair is seen to be breaking higher out of diamond consolidation pattern after almost 20 trading sessions as seen here. The pair is trading around the 0.6400 levels for now and is ready to push through the 0.6500 levels easily. Please note that a confirmed bullish break now would have potential to make the trend bullish from here on. It is hence recommended to remain bullish for now with risk at the 0.6200 levels. Immediate support is seen at the 0.6200 levels and lower, while resistance is seen at the 0.6550 levels followed by 0.6700 and higher respectively.

Trading recommendations:

Remain long for now, stop is at 0.6200, target is open.

Good luck!

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Technical analysis of GBP/JPY for September 30, 2015

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GBP/JPY is expected to trade with bearish bias as key resistance is at 183.05 intraday. The pair rebounded on the upside and is trading above its 20- and 50-period MAs. The intraday RSI is above its neutrality level at 50. Nevertheless, the upward potential is likely to be limited by the resistance at 183.05. As long as this key level is not broken, the pair is likely to test its previous low at 181.45 again. A break below this level would call for a further drop towards 180.90.

Trading recommendations:

The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as long as it remains below the pivot point. Short positions are recommended with the first target at 181.45. A breakout of that target will move the pair further downwards to 180.90. The pivot point stands at 183.05. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, it will move above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. According to that scenario, long positions are recommended with the first target at 183.85 and the second target at 184.45.

Resistance levels: 183.85 184.45 185.15

Support levels: 181.45 180.90 180.45

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Technical analysis of GBP/USD for September 30, 2015

Technical outlook and chart setups:

The GBP/USD pair has been trading in a tight range between the 1.5130 and 1.5200 levels. Please note that the pair has been trading very close to its Fibonacci 0.618 support (of the entire rally between the 1.4950 and 1.5925 levels) at the 1.5085 levels. It is hence recommended to remain long for now with risk at the 1.4950 levels. Immediate support is seen at the 1.5080 levels (Fibonacci) followed by 1.4850 and lower, while resistance is seen at the 1.5650 levels followed by 1.5850 and higher respectively.

Trading recommendations:

Remain long for now, stop is at 1.4950, target is open.

Good luck!

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for September 30, 2015

Technical outlook and chart setups:

The EUR/USD pair is drifting sideways now and remains unchanged from yesterday, testing the 1.1200 levels. Please note that the pair could still push higher through the resistance line at the 1.1350 levels, before turning lower. It is hence recommended to remain long for now with risk at the 1.1100 levels. Immediate support is seen at 1.1100 levels followed by 1.1000 and lower, while resistance is seen at 1.1350 levels followed by 1.1450 and higher respectively. Bulls remain in control till prices stay above the 1.1100 levels.

Trading recommendations:

Remain long for now, stop is at 1.1100, target is open.

Good luck!

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Technical analysis of AUD/USD for September 30, 2015

Technical outlook and chart setups:

The AUD/USD pair bounced back from yesterday's lows (0.6930/40 levels) through the 0.7030/40 levels at the moment, and is preparing to break higher. Please note that the pair is testing the back side of the resistance line, which is support now and could possibly extend towards the 0.7550 levels at least. It is hence recommended to remain long for now, with risk at the 0.6850 levels. Immediate support is seen at the 0.6900 levels and lower while resistance is seen at the 0.7040 levels (interim) followed by 0.7150, 0.7280 and higher respectively.

Trading recommendations:

Remain long for now, stop is at 0.6850, target is open.

Good luck!

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Daily analysis of Silver for September 30, 2015

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Overview

The silver price remains stable above the bearish channel's resistance level, and therefore the chances for resuming the bullish correctional trend, which depends on the stability above the 14.50 level, remain valid. However, it is important to be aware that stochastic and the EMA50 are negative, which makes the price rise difficult. The metal has provided some slight positive attempts to stay stable above 14.50 level since morning, therefore, the bullish trend scenario remains valid and active for today, waiting for breaching the 14.85 level to extend the bullish wave towards 15.85 then 16.30. Note that breaking the 14.50 level will stop the current rise and put the price under the negative pressure again.

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Daily analysis of GBP/JPY for September 30, 2015

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Overview

GBP/JPY remains mildly on the downside for the 180.36 low first. A break will confirm resumption of the whole fall from 195.86 and a deeper decline would be seen to test the 174.86 key support level. On the upside, the pair will extend the sideways trading from 180.36 with another rise. The break of the medium-term trend-line support is taken as a sign of a trend reversal. It is supported by bearish divergence condition in the weekly MACD. Besides, GBP/JPY was close to key cluster resistance of 61.8% retracement of 251.09 to 116.83 at 199.80, which is close to the 200 psychological level. A break of 174.86 will confirm the trend reversal and bring a deeper fall to 38.2% retracement of 116.83 to 195.86 at 165.67. In case of another rise, we will be cautious about strong resistance from 199.80/200.00 to bring the reversal finally.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 180.73; (P) 181.61; (R1) 182.29

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Technical analysis of Silver for September 30, 2015

Technical outlook and chart setups:

Silver is remains flat compared to yesterday, after bouncing off $14.50. The metal has bounced off the Fibonacci and trend-line convergences producing an engulfing bullish candlestick pattern. That indicates a change in trend. It is hence recommended to remain long with risk at $14.00. Immediate support is seen at the levels $14.25, followed by $14.00, $13.00 and lower while resistance is seen at $15.60 followed by $16.40/50 and higher. Bulls are expected to remain in control until prices stay above $14.00.

Trading recommendations:

Remain long with stop set at $14.00, a target is open.

Good luck!

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Technical analysis of Gold for September 30, 2015

Technical outlook and chart setups:

Gold has moved in line with our expectations and finally bounced off the Fibonacci 0.618 support of the rally between the $1,100.00 and $1,155.00 levels, at $1,120.00 respectively. The yellow metal should be poised to extend the rally through the $1,200.00 and $1,230.00 levels in the coming trading sessions. It is hence recommended to remain long for now with risk at the $1,100.00 levels. Immediate support is seen at the $1,100.00 levels followed by $1,090.00, $1,075.00 and lower while resistance is seen at the $1,155.00 levels followed by $1,170.00 and higher respectively.

Trading recommendations:

Remain long for now, stop is at $1,100.00, target is open.

Good luck!

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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for September 30, 2015

Technical outlook and chart setups:

The EUR/JPY pair is seen to be stalling around the 134.00/135.00 levels at the moment. The pair might want to form an interim low ahead of the 133.00 levels before resuming rally. Bulls should continue being in control until 133.00 is in place. It is recommended to remain long with risk at the 133.00 levels for now. Immediate support is seen at the 133.00 levels (interim) followed by 132.00 and lower while resistance is seen at the 137.00 levels followed by 139.00 and higher respectively. Only a break below the 132.00 levels would confirm that the pair is set for a deeper correction.

Trading recommendations:

Remain long for now, stop is at 133.00, target is open.

Good luck!

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Technical analysis of GBP/CHF for September 30, 2015

Technical outlook and chart setups:

The GBP/CHF pair broke below its interim trendline support earlier and is facing resistance now around the 1.4800/15 levels. The pair has found support at the Fibonacci 0.786 (1.4700 levels) of the rally between 1.4600 through 1.5100 earlier. It is recommended to remain long for now with risk at the 1.4600 levels. Only a break below the 1.4700 levels would be a worry for bulls. Immediate support is seen at the 1.4700 levels (interim) followed by 1.4600 and lower, while resistance is seen at the 1.5100 levels followed by 1.5350, 1.5400/10 and higher respectively.

Trading recommendations:

Remain long for now, stop is at 1.4600, target is open.

Good luck!

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Technical analysis of AUD/USD for September 30, 2015

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Overview:

  • The AUD/USD pair rose from the strong level of 0.6977 and extended further to as high as 0.7038 yesterday, and it has closed at the 0.7030 level today. Support will be formed at 0.6980 because this level has also formed a double bottom. Furthermore, the price was set above the double bottom two weeks ago. So we expect a saturation around the level of 0.6970. Hence, the market is likely to start showing signs of a bullish bias again from this spot in order to indicate a bullish opportunity from the level of 0.6976 (11.8% of Fibonacci retracement levels on the H1 chart). Accordingly, buy above the level of 0.6976 with the first target at 0.7069. Besides, it will call for an uptrend in order to continue bullish movement towards 0.7102 in coming hours. On the other hand, if bulls are forced to pull back below the level of 0.6970 and sellers can break this level, the best solution to set a stop loss will be at the price of 0.6952.

Observations:

  • We expect a new range of about 126 pips.
  • The key level will be at 1.7017 which represents the daily pivot point.
  • The support of the AUD/USD pair has already been set at 0.6976. Moreover, the weekly support 1 will be set at the same level.
  • If the trend fails to close below the level of 0.6976, it will be a good opportunity to buy above 0.6976 with the first target at 0.7069. Then, it will be continue straight towards 0.7102.
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Technical analysis of GBP/USD for September 30, 2015

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  • The GBP/USD pair movement will continue directly from the level of 1.5134 towards the current price of 1.5183 on the H1 chart. On the other hand, the resistance will be at the level of 1.5293 which represents the weekly pivot point in the same time frame. However, this level was confirmed by the bearish market a week ago. Additionally, the price of the GBP/USD pair has been showing a downward trend at the same price which represents the resistance. Therefore, the market will indicate the bearish opportunity at the level of 1.5293. Besides, the weekly pivot point became the resistance today. Accordingly, it will be a good decision to sell below 1.5293 (in the long term) with the first target of 1.5134 in order to test the double bottom and further to 1.5093. Furthermore, this level of taking profit will coincide with a new double bottom. So it is going to be a good place to take profit. On the other hand, the stop loss should be placed above the resistance at the price of 1.5334.
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Global macro overview for 30/09/2015

Global macro overview for 30/09/2015

The UK economy grew 0.7% according to latest data, matching the previous estimate and market consensus. Moreover, the UK annual GDP growth was revised down to 2.4% from 2.6% despite the fact that all 35 economists polled by the Reuters agency expected no changes or upward revision. The reason behind that might be hidden in the UK business investment annual growth rate that slowed down to 3.1% in Q2, the lowest level in 5 years. Surprising data on the UK current account deficit unveiled substantial narrowing to £16.8 billion (3.6% of GDP) from a downwardly revised £24 billion in Q1 (5.2% of GDP). This is a big improvement in the current account margin and overall good pack of economic data from the UK. It will definitely have some impact on BoE interests rate decision.

The GBP/USD pair is currently bouncing from the daily support level of 1.5171 after eight days of losses. The next daily resistance is seen at the level of 1.5329.

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Global macro overview for 30/09/2015

Global macro overview for 30/09/2015

The report on the German unemployment was released today at 7:55am GMT posting data on an unchanged jobless rate at the level of 6.4%. Nevertheless, the joblessness has increased in September from 2,000 to 2,795 and it was bigger than analysts' expectations of a 5,000 drop. This unexpected rise in unemployment might be the first sign of economic risk as the EU most important country and economic engine might have just run up against global headwinds.

The technical picture of EUR/USD still shows lack of decision as the pair is trading inside of the consolidation zone between the levels of 1.1297 and 1.1086 on the daily chart.

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USDX technical analysis for September 30, 2015

The US dollar index continues to trade below the important resistance of 96.6, but also above the Ichimoku cloud in both the 4-hour and weekly charts. I prefer to stay neutral and wait for the buy signal above 96.60 to go long. The weekly bullish flag remains valid. We must be patient waiting for a breakout.

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Red lines - triangle pattern

The US dollar index is trading in a big triangle pattern. The upper triangle boundary is seen at the previous high and important resistance of 96.60. The lower boundary is at 95. A trend is neutral in both the medium and short terms as the price mainly consolidates.

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Red line - resistance

Green line - support

The weekly chart does not show any new or significant changes. The price remains trapped inside the bullish flag and above the Ichimoku cloud. The best thing to do is to wait for a breakout, so we need to be patient.

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Technical analysis of USD/CAD for September 30, 2015

General overview for 30/09/2015 09:35 CET

The pair reached another marginal high, so it looks like the wave ii blue might have been completed earlier. The count has been changed to incorporate the recent changes and now it is more bullish. However, this current labeling might be a part of an ending diagonal wave 5 purple. Nevertheless, the market should develop an internal wave iv blue before calling for moor room higher above the level of 1.3456.

Support/Resistnace:

1.3451 - WR1

1.3456 - Intraday Resistnace

1.3371 - Intraday Support

1.3312 - Weekly Pivot

1.3208 - WS1

Trading recommendations:

Daytraders should refrain from trading and wait for more clear pattern to occur. More agressive investors might try to buy on dips inside of the triangle area.

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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for September 30, 2015

General overview for 30/09/2015 09:15 CET

It is the third day in a row when this pair is trading around the weekly pivot at the level of 134.77 with no intention to breakout through one of the important levels. Despite the fact that the golden trend line had been violated, there is no continuation to the upside. This is another clue that the current wave progression might be a part of a more complex and time consuming wave (b) pattern.

Support/Resistnace:

131.80 - WS2

132.22 - Technical Support

133.13 - Wave (b) Bottom

133.40 - WS1

133.92 - Intraday Support

134.77 - Weekly Pivot

135.36 - Intraday Resistnace

136.36 - WR1

Trading recommendations:

Daytraders should refrain from trading and wait for more clear pattern to occur as moment is not good to make any trades.

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Gold wave analysis for September 30, 2015

Gold price continues to trade inside the short-term bearish channel, but in what I believe to be a wave 2. The price is approaching the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, which is an important support and a highly probable reversal level. I prefer long positions with stop at $1,100.

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Black lines - bearish channel

Green lines - long-term triangle pattern

Gold is testing the Ichimoku cloud and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. If this is a wave 2, we should see an upward reversal soon. The form of the decline in 3 waves is corrective so far. This complies with my view. We are in wave 2.

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The weekly chart shows how this week's candle is testing the tenkan-sen support, so bulls will need to step in and push the price higher. If this does not happen and the week closes below the tenkan-sen, a new rejection at the kijun-sen will be bearish reversal and bearish sign that would signal approaching new lows.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for September 30, 2015

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Technical summary:

No change is observed here. We continue to watch for a breakout above important resistance at 1.8000 that confirms a continuation higher to 1.8683. It will take an unexpected breakout below support at 1.7454 to invalidate the bullish outlook.

Trading recommendation:

We are long EUR from 1.7475 with stop placed at 1.7450. If you are not long EUR yet, buy near 1.7585 or upon a break above 1.7901 with the same stop at 1.7450.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for September 30, 2015

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Technical summary:

No change in view is observed here. We continue to watch for one more decline closer to an ideal target at 131.45 before a firm bottom is expected. A new rally higher should be expected. In the short term, we expect the minor resistance at 135.38 to protect the upside for expected downside pressure.

Only an unexpected breakout above minor resistance at 135.38 will indicate that the bottom is in place for a new impulsive rally back to 141.03 and above.

Trading recommendation:

We have placed a buy-order at 131.50 and one upon a break above 135.38 (one order done cancels the other)

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Daily analysis of major pairs for September 30, 2015

EUR/USD: This pair is performing some bullish attempts, which have now resulted in a Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the chart. The EMA 11 has crossed the EMA 56 to the upside, while the Williams' % Range period 20 is now in the overbought territory. This means there is rising momentum in the market, which could possibly favor bulls.

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USD/CHF: There is a "sell" signal on the USD/CHF chart, which would become even stronger when the support level of 0.9650 is broken to the upside. The new "sell" signal cannot be rendered invalid as long as the price stays below the resistance level of 0.9800. Normally, the movement of the EUR/USD pair would determine the fate of the USD/CHF pair.

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GBP/USD: The GBP/USD pair consolidated on Tuesday. There is a clean Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the market, and the price could still continue its journey by at least 200 pips down this week. The accumulation territories around 1.5100 and 1.5000 act as potential targets for bears.

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USD/JPY: This is a strong equilibrium market with no clear uptrend or downtrend in it. It is better for swing and position traders to stay away from the market until a reliable breakout from the strong equilibrium phase takes place; this would require a movement of at least 200 pips upwards or downwards. Right now, the market is OK for scalpers and intraday traders.

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EUR/JPY: There was no directional movement in the EUR/JPY chart yesterday, and the same thing is true of most other majors. The price is consolidating, while the overall bias remains bearish. There could be a breakout today or tomorrow, which would most probably favor bears.

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Daily analysis of USDX for September 30, 2015

On the daily chart, the USDX remains supported above the 95.83, where the bottom is expected in coming days. Rebounds are expected to allow the index to test that resistance zone placed around the level of 96.38. If the USDX succeeds to consolidate above that level, it will test the zone around 96.91. The MACD indicator remains at the positive territory.

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There is some dynamic support found at the 200 SMA on the H1 chart, which could give some bullish momentum to the index pushing it higher towards new key levels. This is also supported by the current moving average location in this time frame and eventually the USDX could test the level of 96.15.

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Daily chart's resistance levels: 96.38 / 96.91

Daily chart's support levels: 95.81 / 95.26

H1 chart's resistance levels: 96.15 / 96.30

H1 chart's support levels: 95.94 / 95.77

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place buy (long) orders only if the US Dollar Index breaks with a bullish candlestick; the resistance level is at 96.15, take profit is at 96.30, and stop loss is at 96.00.

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for September 30, 2015

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When the European market opens, economic news on the Italian Prelim CPI m/m, Unemployment Rate, Core CPI Flash Estimate y/y, CPI Flash Estimate y/y, Italian Monthly Unemployment Rate, German Unemployment Change, French Consumer Spending m/m, and German Retail Sales m/m is due to be released. The US is expected to publish economic data on Crude Oil Inventories, Chicago PMI, and ADP Non-Farm Employment Change. So amid the reports, EUR/USD will move with medium volatility during this day.

TODAY TECHNICAL LEVELS:

Breakout BUY Level: 1.1307.

Strong Resistance:1.1301.

Original Resistance: 1.1290.

Inner Sell Area: 1.1279.

Target Inner Area: 1.1253.

Inner Buy Area: 1.1227.

Original Support: 1.1216.

Strong Support: 1.1205.

Breakout SELL Level: 1.1199.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for September 30, 2015

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In Asia, Japan will release the Housing Starts y/y, Prelim Industrial Production m/m, and Retail Sales y/y. The US will publish economic data on Crude Oil Inventories, Chicago PMI, and ADP Non-Farm Employment Change. So, there is a strong probability that the USD/JPY pair will move with low volatility during the Asian session, but with medium to high volatility during the US session.

TODAY TECHNICAL LEVELS:

Resistance. 3: 120.56.

Resistance. 2: 120.33.

Resistance. 1: 120.09.

Support. 1: 119.80.

Support. 2: 119.56.

Support. 3: 119.33.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

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Daily analysis of GBP/USD for September 30, 2015

The pair seeks to perform a bearish consolidation below the support level of 1.5169, which should open the doors to testing the next support located around the level of 1.5030. By the way, there could happen some rebounds during the process, because the cable seems to be oversold in lower time frames. The MACD indicator remains at the negative territory.

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On the H1 chart, GBP/USD is forming another bearish pattern below the resistance level of 1.516,6 and this should be the way to test the next support at the level of 1.5103. If a breakout to the downside takes place there, it could fall until the level of 1.5035 in coming hours. The MACD indicator is entering the positive territory.

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Daily chart's resistance levels: 1.5169 / 1.5256

Daily chart's support levels: 1.5030 / 1.4955

H1 chart's resistance levels: 1.5166 / 1.5223

H1 chart's support levels: 1.5103 / 1.5035

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place sell (short) orders only if the GBP/USD pair breaks a bearish candlestick; the resistance level is at 1.5103, take profit is at 1.5035, and stop loss is at 1.5176.

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Daily analysis of Silver for September 29, 2015

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Overview

According to the attached H4 chart, the silver price traded with clear negativity yesterday to settle at the previously breached bearish channel's resistance level. It turns into important support base at 14.55, accompanied by stochastic move within the oversold levels, which supports the chances for bouncing higher to resume the bullish correctional trend. The price needs to wait for targeting 15.85, then 16.30 levels mainly. You should take into account that the continuation of the suggested positive scenario conditioned by breaching the 14.85 level besides holding above the 14.55 level, where breaking this level will stop the positive scenario and push the price to resume the bearish trend.

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Daily analysis of GBP/JPY for September 29, 2015

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Overview

According to the attached H4 chart, the break of 181.60 indicates resumption of a fall from 188.28. The intraday bias is mildly on the downside for the 180.36 low. A break will confirm resumption of the whole fall from 195.86 and a deeper decline would be seen to test the 174.86 key support level. On the upside, above 184.41, resistance will extend the sideways trading from 180.36 with another rise.

And the break of the medium-term trendline support is taken as a sign of a trend reversal. It is supported by bearish divergence condition in the weekly MACD. Besides, GBP/JPY was close to key cluster resistance of 61.8% retracement of 251.09 to 116.83 at 199.80, which is close to the 200 psychological level. A break of 174.86 will confirm the trend reversal and bring a deeper fall to 38.2% retracement of 116.83 to 195.86 at 165.67. In case of another rise, we will be cautious about strong resistance from 199.80/200.00 to bring the reversal finally.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 181.30; (P) 182.30; (R1) 182.96.

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USD/CAD intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for September 29, 2015

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Overview:

Several months ago, when bulls pushed the price above the 79.6% Fibonacci level, the market looked quite overbought. That is why, the price failed to hold above 1.2650 - 1.2680 (previous highs), resulting in lower highs (within the depicted consolidation zone) enhancing the bearish side of the market.

Daily fixation below 1.2300 opened the way towards the levels of 1.2000 and 1.1940 (the depicted weekly uptrend).

Bullish support was found around these levels. Higher lows were reached. Bullish pressure was applied to the resistance levels of 1.2450 and 1.2500 (previous tops).

A bullish breakout above the zone of 1.2770-1.2800 has been executed.

The long-term bullish target was projected towards the level of 1.3270 (100% Fibonacci Expansion). However, bulls have bypassed this level two weeks ago.

A bearish corrective movement towards the level of 1.2750 (breakout level) should be expected as long as USD/CAD bears keep trading below the resistance zone of 1.3400-1.3450.

Moreover, bearish persistence below 1.3270 (Fibonacci Expansion 100%) is needed to expose the next support level around 1.3070, 1.2910 and 1.2750 where long-term buy entries can be considered.

Trading recommendations:

A counter-trend sell entry can be offered around the price levels of 1.3400-1.3450 (Fibonacci Expansion 141% levels). S/L should be placed above the level of 1.3480. T/P levels should be placed at 1.3300, 1.3220 and 1.3050.

On the other hand, conservative traders should wait for a bearish pullback towards the recent breakout zone (1.2800-1.2750) for a valid buy entry as the breakout level constitutes a strong support level.

S/L should be located below the level of 1.2700. T/P levels should be located at 1.2850 and 1.2900.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for GBP/USD for September 29, 2015

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Few months ago, the market was pushed above the weekly key zone around 1.5550 in an attempt to reach the area around 1.5900, which has been providing the GBP/USD pair with evident resistance.

A previous weekly candlestick closure above 1.5500 hindered further bearish decline and enhanced the bullish side of the market towards 1.5670 (previous weekly high) and 1.5780 (61.8% Fibonacci level).

However, recent weekly candlestick came as a bearish engulfing one, closing below the level of 1.5450 (Head and Shoulders neckline).

It supports the bearish side of the market in the long term. For the reversal pattern, an approximate projection target should be located at the level of 1.5050.

In the short term, the nearest demand level to meet the GBP/USD pair is located around 1.5170 (recent weekly bottom and the origin of a previous bullish engulfing weekly candlestick).

Weekly persistence below the price zone of 1.5170-1.5200 is mandatory to allow further bearish decline to occur. On the other hand, persistence above it hinders the current bearish momentum.

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Prominent supply/resistance around the level of 1.5770 (prominent 61.8% Fibonacci level) where the right shoulder of the depicted bearish reversal pattern is observed.

That is why a valid sell entry was suggested for retesting at 1.5770 one month ago. All of its targets were successfully achieved.

Moreover, the previous bearish movement found its way towards the level of 1.5200 (prominent demand level), which prevented further bearish decline.

Instead of it, evident bullish rejection took place (bullish engulfing daily candlesticks) leading to the recent bullish pullback towards 1.5560, which provided the current extensive bearish rejection.

Price actions should be watched around the current levels near 1.5150 as it corresponds to the previous prominent weekly bottom.

A short-term buy entry can be offered if enough bullish rejection is expressed around these levels.

On the other hand, daily fixation below 1.5150 allows a quick bearish movement to occur towards the price level of 1.4970 (Weekly Demand Level).

Trade Recommendation:

A valid sell entry was suggested around the zone of 1.5550-1.5580 (recent resistance zone). It is already running in profits.

T/P levels to be projected towards 1.5200 (achieved) and 1.5050 (yet to come), while S/L should be lowered to 1.5250 to secure our profits.

On the other hand, a low-risk buy entry can be offered around the weekly demand level at 1.4970. S/L should be placed below 1.4930.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for September 29, 2015

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The pair moved lower after breaking below major demand levels around 1.2100 and 1.2000 where historical bottoms were previously established back in July 2012 and June 2010.

EUR/USD bears have already pushed the price slightly below the monthly demand level at 1.0550 (established in January 1997). Bullish recovery was observed shortly after.

April's candlestick came as bullish engulfing one. However, the next monthly candlesticks (May, June, July, and August) reflected the recent bearish rejection which exists around the price level of 1.1450.

In the long term, a projection target is still seen at 0.9450 if a bearish breakdown of the monthly demand level at 1.0550 occurs soon.

On the other hand, a bullish corrective movement towards 1.1500 can take place only if a monthly high of 1.1465 gets breached.

It can be achieved if the current monthly candlestick closes above a weekly high of 1.1465 by the end of the current month (low probability).

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Multiple ascending bottoms were established around the levels of 1.0830 and 1.1020. These levels corresponded to the current daily uptrend depicted on the chart.

Continuous bullish pressure has been applied until significant bearish resistance was expressed around the levels of 1.1480 and 1.1700.

The market looked overbought as bulls were pushing the price further beyond the level of 1.1500 (daily supply level).

Hence, bearish movement took place towards the level of 1.1150 (61.8% Fibonacci level), which provided evident bullish rejections (note the recent daily candlesticks).

As anticipated, the intraday supply zone of 1.1360-1.1400 provided significant bearish rejection. An intraday sell entry was suggested with T/P levels placed at 1.1150 (achieved) and 1.1050 (yet to come).

Daily persistence below the level of 1.1150 (61.8% Fibonacci level) is mandatory to expose the next demand level around 1.0980 where the daily uptrend comes to meet the pair.

Conservative traders should wait for more bearish pullback towards the zone of 1.0980-1.1000 (the depicted uptrend line) for a valid buy entry.

S/L should be placed below 1.0950. T/P levels should be placed at 1.1080 and 1.1160.

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for September 29, 2015

Technical outlook and chart setups:

The EUR/USD pair dropped lower today towards the 1.1200 levels, before bouncing back up again. The pair is testing its 50-day moving average for now around the 1.1220 levels and looking to rally again. As depicted here, the pair could push higher towards the 1.1350 levels (resistance line of consolidation) at least, before reversing lower. It is hence recommended to remain long for now with risk below the 1.1100 levels. Immediate support is seen at the 1.1100 levels followed by 1.1000 and lower, while resistance is seen at the 1.1450 levels followed by 1.1700 and higher respectively.

Trading recommendations:

Remain long for now, stop is at 1.1100, target is 1.1340.

Good luck!

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